2022 Week 16: Saints 17, Browns 10 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week’s games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
This was the worst weather game of Week 16/the 2022 NFL season…’feels like’ temps -15 and colder, winds 25 mph with gusts up to 35-40. It was an unnatural game due to the weather, so we really can’t take a ton away from the performance/output but there were some potential clues to the future to discuss…and just Week 17 related things happening with a few players involved in this game.
Cleveland took a 10-3 halftime lead…going through the bad weather better than the Saints, but that switched in the 2nd-half as the Saints scored a couple TDs in the 3rd-quarter and then just sat on the lead to the finish. Either team could’ve won…it was a freezing cold, windy, slow moving game.
The Saints are now (6-9) and still have a chance to win the sad NFC South if they win out and get some help…it’s possible but not likely. However, if the Saints beat Philly this week and Carolina beats Tampa -- then it’s the Saints vs. Panthers for the division Week 18.
The Browns are also now (6-9) but they aren’t lucky enough to be in the sad NFC South, so their season is over. No path to the wild card remains.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The big (potential) news right now from this game isn’t even directly from this game. Alvin Kamara (20-76-1, 2-34-0/4) missed a couple days of practice this week, leading up to Week 17’s game, with a quad injury.
Kamara got snarky about his 3rd-down usage in this game/season in the media postgame, and then these missed practices without a lot of explanation. Rumors are swirling that something is up, and Kamara may not play this week…either due to the injury or something deeper. He did get back to practice Friday, however.
It feels like there is real acrimony between AK and the new staff. It’s been brewing for weeks. Kamara is also a handful+ off the field…and getting worse over the years.
As mentioned on the Thursday Video Q&A special…you might want to hold David Johnson on your FF roster ‘just in case’. You might wake up with a shock/full helping of DJ Sunday versus the Eagles, in a must win game for the Saints. Low odds of happening, but it’s on the table.
-- My biggest angst from this game…
It was the perfect time to use Taysom Hill (9-56-1) heavy, as a weapon to counteract the weather issues. I thought for sure Hill would see his most snaps at QB that he’s played all year. I couldn’t imagine the Saints could be so stupid as to not see the obvious with more wildcat Hill due to the weather forecast/reality.
Nope.
Hill never even touched the ball until 3+ minutes left until half time. And of course, his first two touches were 11- and 16-yard runs, which helped the Saints finally put together a scoring drive right before the half.
Hill only touched the ball on four drives the whole game…three of them were all the Saints scoring drives.
The NFL’s stupidity knows no bounds.
So, don’t expect Taysom Hill to be a breakout Fantasy TE this week…if they don’t use him heavier in the perfect storm situation…they ain’t using him in normal circumstances. Hill started the season as a (2/2) and was one of the TD leaders in the NFL early on…he’s been an (0/10) since. Their best weapon…and they never even use it right/much.
When Taysom rushes for 50 or more yards in a game this season, the Saints are (5-0). They are (1-9) when he’s under 50 yards rushing.
-- Rashid Shaheed (4-41-0/5) was held down due to the weather/the stunted passing game. Better projections ahead Week 17 in normal weather and with Chris Olave likely back.
I’ll keep calling Shaheed the ‘nuclear option’. If you need a 20+ point game with upside/long TD potential…Shaheed is as good an option, on waivers, as there is to try and thread that needle for a week.
-- Juwan Johnson (1-9-0/2) had a bad FF output, but it was another fluke (weather) event for JJ. When all the circumstances are right…weather, health…Johnson is producing, increasing, emerging. He’s just had several unlucky events lately making it seem like he’s trash -- hurt his foot, was sick, weird weather. He’s a legit TE1 hope Week 17 v. Philly.
*We have some upcoming website changes/upgrades coming in 2023. More news on that in a few days. Your saved URL/link for quick FFM access may not work with the upgrade (might have to get to the new page and resave as your quick access URL)…just noting this on the off-chance you get do get disconnected with your old link in the days to come -- that it is likely due to the site update. You can always find us via our (free) App or messages on Twitter or I’ll put a message out on Video if needed. Again, more news on the 2023 website updates/upgrades as we get to 2023.*
-- Deshaun Watson (15-31 for 135 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) tried to fight the weather with double the passing attempts the Saints tried…but it was too much uphill battle with the wind/cold. Less than 50% Comp. Pct. and no TDs. Again, another uninspiring…the team uninspired, performance led by Watson.
-- In this bad weather event, Watson did go to Amari Cooper (6-72-0/10) a ton… a season high (with Watson) 10 targets, while Donovan Peoples-Jones (1-2-0/5) was a ghost.
Amari seems to be pulling into the lead for ‘favored target’ status for Deshaun, but four games of WR3 tallies is all Cooper has to show for it.
-- Nick Chubb (24-92-0, 1-10-0/1) hasn’t scored a TD or rushed for 100+ yards with Deshaun starting. I’d worry that with the Browns out of the race officially, we’ll see less Chubb the rest of the season. No sense running him into the ground for no reason.
-- The Browns rolled out a sad LB duo of Reggie Ragland (10 tackles) and Tony Fields (10 tackles) this game…and the Saints ran for 152 yards and 2 TDs on them. The Browns run defense is sinking to the bottom of the league lately on weak LB talent/play. Their past three games they’ve allowed 136-198-152 yards rushing to opponents.
Remember when they traded for Deion Jones? He played 21 snaps this game…benched after his Week 15 performance.
Snap Counts of Interest:
37 = Chubb
33 = Hunt
02 = D’Ernest Johnson
38 = Kamara
15 = David Johnson
33 = Tre’Quan
26 = Callaway
23 = Shaheed
