- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Rams 24, Patriots 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
*Written before the Sunday games kicked off*
I’ll stick to, and pat myself on the back for, my analysis of the Rams the last few weeks as the reason no detailed game notes (on the teams themselves) are needed for what happened here. I have been saying for weeks that the Rams have the best defense in football – an emergence, upswing to becoming ‘that’ defense…there’s always one each year, it seems, and sometimes they need some time to reveal themselves as the season goes – but one eventually arrives…and that defense, the most dominant defense in the NFL, is one that can carry a team to the Super Bowl. It’s happening with the Rams.
I’ve also promoted (going into Week 14) that there are three elite teams in the NFL currently, and two of them are totally undersold/undervalued by the football analysts…it’s the Bills and the Rams (KC being the other of the top three).
The Rams win decisively on cable television…and yet the analyst story is – Should Cam be benched? Are the Patriots really not going to make the playoffs? Why did the Patriots lose? Do the Patriots regret ditching Tom Brady? Super Bowl redemption for the Rams, from that time the Patriots beat them in the Super Bowl!
The story this week, nationally, will never be – The Rams are the only real NFC threat to the Kansas City Chiefs and are possibly better than the Chiefs because of their defense, and Jared Goff is a really good quarterback. The football media does NOT believe in Goff so therefore they will NOT believe in the Rams. And their way of dealing with it is – ignoring it. It’s not even on purpose – football analysts live in an alternate reality where their pre-programming/coding in their minds dismisses anything Rams, mostly because of what they were told/decided about Goff three+ years ago.
It sounds insane, but I’ve been doing this for 10+ years – it’s real, it is why teams are run so poorly and make such stupid mistakes over and over and over…most NFL people (players, coaches, execs…and the fired/retired ones turned ‘analysts’) have a hive mind/set narratives and never put in the work (or are allowed) to question/test/explore alternatives. To me, the analysts of this business/the NFL don’t put in the work that I do...or what many serious fantasy players and/or handicappers do – the studying, searching, the poking and prodding…doing so for profit in handicapping and fantasy, not for ‘love of the game’.
The research, the questioning, the counter thinking -- It’s life and death for my existence. I have to (try and) know what’s really going on. National Football analysts are paid to be safe mouthpieces and not offer any opinion that doesn’t agree with the ‘hive’. Professionally, it’s best for them not to be wrong alone on any radical thinking items. Plus, the hate mail you get is taxing when you criticize someone’s team or favorite player -- you;re like a heretic in a religion. Analysts are paid to be/it’s better for their careers to just shine a fawning light on stars being stars…i.e. the ‘amazing’ analysis of: “I really like this kid” (or worse “They/the coaches really like this kid”) and everyone on the major networks trying to one up each other on how good Aaron Donald is in their pregame segments. How is that analysis? We all know Aaron Donald and Patrick Mahomes are great…you don’t need to explain why by showing me two cool plays of theirs and hyperventilating over it for 7-11 minutes in a segment or roundtable discussion. Tell me on-field things I don’t know. The mainstream analysts are all ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ together on players/scouting/teams, so no one gets criticized – because if it’s ultimately wrong, they’ll ignore it or have an underlying tone of…hey, EVERYBODY thought that way…so, what am I to do?
Clowns.
Literally.
They paint their face and perform an act/a routine for us…a bunch of ‘tricks’ that are not ‘amazing’, just cheap deception/diversions – they think we’re simpletons and that we’ll clap and bark like seals at their dazzling never-ending handkerchief up the sleeve gag…or flowers out of the top of the magic wand surprise. Next week, watch them pull a quarter out of your ear.
The NFL has production meetings and marketing strategies that comes up with stupid ‘Super Fan’ contests to encourage ridiculous loyalty to a jersey or territory. It seems to work…look at the TV ratings. When the NFL thinks of their audience demo in order to design production, pregame shows, and what ‘hard hitting analysis’ to give to them…this is the thought bubble above Roger Goodell’s head on what he sees among the NFL audience: https://youtu.be/8S_0MWqOkCE
Bill Simmons and Colin Cowherd (among others) were removed from ESPN because they didn’t drink the Kool Aid from the NFL. They rightfully questioned things, offered alternative opinions (whether right/wrong, good/bad). The NFL doesn’t want that. They want stupid, blind loyalists watching and analyzing…thus Michael Irvin, Steve Mariucci, Kurt Warner, and Rich Eisen (nice guy, but he knows his role for the cause) are long-time anchors/stalwarts of the NFL’s own network shows (yes, the NFL has its own network to cover itself…like Communist countries have). The NFL establishment doesn’t want a Pat McAfee (they’ll not suffer him for long…I think they’re trying to see if he will bend to their will for towards them)…instead they give us Booger McFarland and Jason Witten…and coming soon – useful, milquetoast Drew Brees and Greg Olsen.
You’d think NFL coverage would be getting smarter, sharper as we go – instead we are getting dumber in NFL analysis. The NFL establishment has so insulated itself and hired certain types of mouthpieces (and banished/flushed others) that the false reality they’ve built…they actually believe it to be real. They’ve duped themselves. The emperor literally has no clothes.
So, you’re never going to get super-sharp NFL analysis or questioning of things (even if wrong in the end). You get sugary hype or just ignoring things they don’t deem worthy/thought were ‘bad’. The Rams fall into the ignored.
The Rams whacking the Patriots…it’s written off as a mild surprise, but it shouldn’t be. The Rams shouldn’t have been ignored as ‘lucky’ when they punched Seattle Week 10 – the post-game story was about how Russell Wilson had a bad game (something to do with ‘cooking’ I’m sure). When the Rams embarrassed Tampa Bay Week 11…the post-game story the next week was all about Brady and Arians aren’t good for each other. When the Rams slammed Arizona Week 13…everyone was like ‘What’s wrong with this Arizona team, and Kyler is too small to be good I guess?” Week 14, the Rams pull down the Patriots pants on live TV and spank them…and post-game everyone is discussing Cam benching for Stidham and lamenting Belichick for letting Brady go.
The story is, and should have been for several weeks…
1) Jared Goff is a very good, solid+ NFL QB (and has been for years).
2) The Rams are arguably the best team in the NFL and if you set a spread of KC v. LAR on a neutral field…it would be pretty even spread internally, as a base for Vegas line setters -- but then it would wind up coming out at KC -3.0, to allow for the public sway -- because the public will have been brainwashed/conditioned to seeing the Rams as lucky if they get to the Super Bowl somehow.
All that to say, getting back to this particular game…
The Patriots really needed this game. It could’ve turned the season. Yet, the Rams came out and humiliated the Patriots from the first play of the game. We don’t have to debate Cam v. Brady v. Stidham here…the Rams would’ve beaten any of them starting. The Rams are just that good, and it’s not an embarrassment for the Patriots to lose to them. The Rams are really, really good.
The Rams have flaws, but all NFL teams do. No team is perfect/going undefeated. The Chiefs can’t hardly handle the Raiders and Broncos in recent weeks. You do realize the Chiefs are within a whisker of having lost every division game they’ve played this year, but one, right? Look at the game log/schedule and you’ll see. The Rams are good but have their flaws but are now (9-4) headed to a Week 16 showdown at Seattle for the NFC West title.
*Rams side note…a faithful FFM member pointed out that on my Survivor picks in my weekly register that I had been listing that I used the Rams (over NYG) Week 4, and thus I mentioned this past week that I couldn’t use the Rams as a Survivor pick ahead. When in reality, in Week 4, I had taken/used the Ravens (over Haskins), and thus still have the Rams as an option.
So, if we get past Seattle v. Jets this week…we got Rams v. Jets to take in Week 15 baby!!!! I remember mapping that out for as many Jets matchups as possible several weeks ago, but I noted the Rams as unusable last week erroneously. So, for those following/using my Survivor picks – we got the Rams coming Week 15 (not BAL or SF as I mentioned we might have to debate).
The Patriots are now (6-7), and would need to win out to get to (9-7)…and that might be good enough to get to the wild card. However, if they did win out, they’d hold tiebreakers over Miami and Las Vegas and Baltimore…which puts them in a great spot if there is a cluster of (9-7) teams.
FYI…I’ve not used New England in Survivor pool yet this season either. You know who they play Week 17?
We’re set up to use…
SEATTLE over Jets Week 14
RAMS over Jets Week 15
Week 16 = ?
PATRIOTS over Jets Week 17
Week 16? Jets play the Browns…I haven’t used the Browns yet either.
First things first, Seattle has to take down NYJ this week.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- As I watched this game live, I was like…I’m never going to hear the end of this from some people, I’m going to get a bunch of ‘see, you were wrong about Cam Akers (29-171-0, 2-23-0/3)’ the rest of the week.
I also got emails Thursday night on from people who picked up Akers as a flyer grab during the week in redraft, just to see…and didn’t start him for this game, and now they’re sullen, lamenting. Hey, there’s a reason why he was unclaimed in your league going into this week – no one was ready to believe, no one saw/had confidence that this was coming. Be happy you grabbed him and have him as an option for next week.
So, what do you want to hear here?
If I go anti-Akers…you won’t be having it. I’ll sound like a loon. I know this because the emails I’m getting already have Akers enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Why? Because people SAW it with their own two eyes on a solo night game…and much of it happened early in the game, so people really SAW it before fading off on this dull 2nd-half. There is nothing more powerful than a rookie having a 100+ yard anything game on a solo night game.
Akers will be 100% started next week in every FF league, guaranteed. And he should be…facing the Jets Week 15 on top of this event. If he were facing the top run defenses Week 15…wouldn’t matter – this game result was seen with human eyes, so it’s now a fact in our subconscious – Akers is the greatest. He’s going to be started everywhere by everybody until further notice.
I believe Akers is a ‘C’ grade NFL talent at best. But talent assessments don’t matter anymore…coaches preference is what rules RB projections. However that it is an RB gets to the juicy touches…that’s all that matters. Debating Akers v. Darrell Henderson is a fun aside, but talent arguments don’t matter. No different than Carson v. Penny from prior years.
Akers is in prime position to be the lead guy for the Rams now – the Rams/Sean McVay has given us hints at it all along, since he was drafted. It’s come to fruition now.
However, it won’t be long before you don’t care as much about Akers. Ty Johnson rushed for 100+ yards this past week…doesn’t matter. Damien Harris rushed for 100 yards on MNF vs. KC Week 4 in his real NFL debut game and everyone went after him off waivers like crazy. He’s run for a couple of 100+ yard games this year. He’ll be on benches and waivers mostly for Week 15. Old news.
The new/fresh news is Cam Akers…so it shall be. For a while.
My take on Akers’ performance, as an art critic of such things? Not that impressed.
What has my attention…29 carries in a game. That is meaningful. That’s ‘message sent’. I’ll come back to that. But looking at Akers actual tape…
I saw a guy running through great holes early in the game because the defense was playing back in prep for a quick passing game and weren’t totally worried about/focused on Akers – and the Rams came out and slammed it down their throat running it. The first two series Akers rushed 9 times for 99 yards with three+ 10+ yard runs. The Patriots then adjusted and for the next three quarters went back to normal for Akers this year – 20 carries for 72 yards…or 3.6 yards per carry, which is more the pace he’s done this year.
So, am I supposed to chase the Akers from the first two series/one quarter/10 offensive points…the 10+ yards per carry version from this game…
OR
Is he more the guy from the next eight series/three quarters/just seven offensive points…the 3.6 yards per carry guy from this game (a pace which is his 2020 norm)?
You saw the 1st-quarter Akers, and it’s impressed into your mind – you wish you started him, you wish you claimed him, you wish you Dynasty Rookie Drafted the guy you saw for one great quarter. Oh, if you only had Cam Akers all your RB issues would be solved.
I saw the guy from the final three quarters…the more quarters of sample size, being the same guy he’s been all year.
I’m not saying he won’t be a fantasy gem next week or the ROS or 2021. I’m just saying – I don’t see a real ‘it’ factor here, and I’ve got a good track record on scouting or de-bunking RBs on what I see (visually/statistically). A couple years ago, Kerryon Johnson was going to take over the world too with his 100+ yard rushing explosion on the Patriots. David Montgomery was set to rule the world after a 27 carry, 135-yard rushing game vs. the Chargers in 2019. Kerryon and Montgomery…guys the mainstream was absolutely sure would be great, but time passed…and no one cares as much now.
I want to see some star power talent with my ‘big game’ and ‘big prospect’ name – and I just don’t see it here with Akers. Never have going back to his Florida State years. Darrell Henderson’s 20 carries for 117 yards and a TD in Week 3…much more impressive, much more ‘it’ factor…and it’s long been forgotten.
All that to say, I’ll get on board the Akers express now.
171 yards rushing…nice. But he got 29 carries…who wouldn’t rush for 100+ yards with that number of carries? There have been 20 RB performances where the RB took 25 or more carries in a game…and 14 of the 20 times it resulted in 100+ yards rushing games (70%). It’s not the yards that has my attention…it’s the carries.
McVay had been hinting at Akers as a lead, but then didn’t really do it several weeks ago. Through Week 12, Akers had not played more than 33% of the snaps in a game and seemed stuck in an RBBC group. Last week/Week 13, Akers played 63% of the snaps…and we started to wonder, but it also could’ve been a blip. 29 carries here…OK, I got the message. 79% of the snaps this game…yes, sir. I understand, Mr. McVay.
Talent + Touches + the coach’s desire = the elite fantasy RBs
Touches + the coach’s desire = I’ll take it for FF and not going to whine about it. I’m not going to chase fairy tales. Gimme James Conner, David Montgomery, James Robinson, Chris Carson, and Cam Akers…and you can have Jaylen Samuels, Ryan Nall, Rashaad Penny, Darrell Henderson.
Cam Akers is beloved by his coach on a good offense – I don’t need to worry about his low yards per carry, or underperformance, or lack of ‘wow’. I’ll take coach’s loyalty…to get to the 20+ carries in games, to get to the Fantasy gold.
I love Cam Akers now. Even though he’s the third-best RB on his own team. Does not matter.
What good is it if Jonathan Taylor and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are top talents or in good places, but their coach isn’t enslaved to them in the offense? Worst case their talents will be checkmated, in output, by a lesser-talented Akers or D’Andre Swift’s undying loyalty touch count. Andy Reid loves CEH…he just loves Patrick Mahomes more, as he should.
-- If I were an NFL General Manager and was given the free choice of Cam Akers or Damien Harris (11-50-0. 0-0-0/1)…I take Harris a hundred times out of 100.
If I were a fantasy GM and had to start Akers or Harris next week…I’m starting Akers 101 times out of 100.
Damien Harris has been the better back, on tape and in results all season, compared to Akers – but his coach does not worship him over all things, so we have to take that grain of FF-salt.
Harris got 20+ carries (22) in a game once this year…and rushed for 121 yards against a stout Ravens defense. Ahh, you don’t care. That was so many weeks ago…like four to be exact. Ancient history. And Harris is not a rookie so it’s not all that impressive.
I do have some hope that Harris WILL be the main guy for Belichick in 2021, and I want in on that train…but I would bet more on Akers being the guy in 2021 more than Harris. If Harris is ‘the guy’ in 2021…I want that over Akers. I think Akers will peter out into another RB2 who has random RB1 and RB3 weeks as we go into the future. Harris is showing me consistent RB1 skills upside.
Other Patriots RB notes…
Sony Michel (7-22-0) is working as a kind of a relief back, backup to Harris…and the last two weeks have given him opportunity for touches for Michel because both games were blowouts the Patriots were involved in.
James White (3-16-0, 1-2-0/2) has died since Michel has returned to action…for whatever that’s worth. Could be coincidence or not…again, ‘the blowouts’.
Harris taking lead touches is the constant for the NE backfield in all these blowouts the past two weeks.
-- Is Jared Stidham (5-7 for 27 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) taking over for Cam Newton (9-16 for 119 yards, 0 TD/1 INT)?
Probably not until Week 17.
At this moment, Cam is a liability…but with this current Patriots team, they’re built for Cam to run/play safe and work good defense to win. New England can run the table and get a playoff spot, so Belichick will go with Cam at Miami Week 15.
If the Pats lose Week 15, and are out of the playoffs, Bill will still do his ex-Pat (Brian Flores/MIA) a favor and run Cam out there Week 16 vs. BUF to try and knock off the Bills to help Miami try and win the division. If the Pats beat Miami Week 15…then Week 16 is huge for NE and they’ll go with Cam for sure against the Bills.
Stidham looks like Jimmy Garoppolo 2.0 every time I watch him work. He’s probably going to be the Pats starter in 2021 Week 1, after we go through the media rumoring the Pats to sign or trade for every QB and then rumors of them drafting every QB available in the draft. In the end, I think Stidham is being groomed to be the next Jimmy G. – sadly, the lost year of training with COVID really set the plan back some in 2020.
-- Robert Woods (5-32-0/8) and Cooper Kupp (5-33-1/5) had down FF games, and that’s a testament to the Patriots pass defense, more specifically corners Stephon Gilmore (4 tackles) and J.C. Jackson (2 tackles) playing so well here/this season.
The Patriots CBs are going to crush the Dolphins passing game/Tua Week 15. Not going to be great for the Bills Week 16 either.
-- Rams LB Kenny Young (8 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT TD return) had himself a game. His best game as a pro. He’s still just a rotational guy right now, but he is talented…but seems to be way back in the LB rotation.
LB Troy Reeder (7 tackles, 1 TFL) has gotten more run than Young has with Micah Kizer out, and Reeder was always getting 10 or more tackles in games as a fill-in starter for Kizer…until this game. ‘Just’ 7 tackles this game. Kizer should be back Week 15 and Young and Reeder are reduced.
-- PK Matt Gay (1/1 FG, 3/3 XP) seemed like he would be inactive for this game when the Rams called up/activated a PK a few hours before kickoff. However, whatever the issue was…the practice squad PK was made inactive for the game, ultimately, and Gay kicked without issue.
Week 15 hosting the Jets indoors/in LA is good. Week 16 at Seattle should be fine too. We’ll see what the weather is there on that one…could be 50s and rain, helping stall drives and settling for FGs…maybe.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Higbee
53 = Everett
50 = Akers
07 = D Henderson
06 = M Brown
27 = J White
22 = D Harris
15 = Michel
31 = Keener
23 = Asiasi
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Chiefs 22, Broncos 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I saved this as the last game study/report of the week. Why? What did we learn here that we didn’t already know for fantasy next week/into the future? Nothing, really.
The Chiefs kept driving down into the red zone all game, as you’d expect, but through a comedy of errors kept failing to convert TDs…which is totally unlike their offense – so, they settled for field goals and just put the Broncos to sleep that way.
I mean…Tyreek had that bomb TD catch that was ruled not a catch but was a catch on replay…but no one on the Chiefs challenged it – there was one real TD lost. Side note – I saw 3-4 instances of teams not challenging something they should have Week 13. It made me wonder…these teams make like 10 gazillion dollars a year and have so many coaches, etc., on staff they can’t hardly fit in a team photo. Why aren’t they spending money for someone or multiple people to just focus on reviewable plays in-game? If they do…their system ain’t working real well.
So, KC lost a Tyreek bomb TD because they didn’t challenge it. Later, they lost another Tyreek bomb TD reversed due to a holding call. Harrison Butker kicked five FGs for the game…he outscored Tyreek. It was just ‘that kind of game’ for the Chiefs. Denver plays them tough. KC sleepwalks through games because they are so much better than everyone. This was a bad KC output game on offense…unlikely to be seen again like this. No one believes ‘something has happened with the Chiefs! Time to sell everything off’.
KC won in dull fashion, closer than it should’ve been, but they were clearly the superior team and they snuck by on a Sunday night…and we all moved on with our lives.
KC moves to (11-1) and got an extra ‘win’ when the Steelers lost to Washington to drop to (11-1), tied with KC. The Chiefs earning a #1 seed is destined at this point.
Denver’s Drew Lock nightmare continues…they fall to (4-8), probably on their way to 5 wins tops. They have been decimated by injury once again, and Drew Lock is killing them. I’m not sure they fully realize/admit that yet.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Here’s something we did learn from this game… Le’Veon Bell (11-40-0, 2-15-0/3) was given a spot start for the ill (non-COVID) Clyde Edwards-Helaire…and, as I’ve been harping on, Le’Veon doesn’t have any ‘it’ left. The juice seems to be all squeezed out of this orange.
Bell got the full start and looked like every random ‘who cares’ back in the NFL. He has virtually no FF-redraft value remaining. Darrell Williams (6-38-0, 1-5-0/2) looks exponentially better and will split with Bell if CEH is down – and in NFL situations, Williams would be more trusted in key spots if it really came down to it.
-- Bell would be the 4th-most talented RB on the Broncos current roster. Phillip Lindsay (14-26-0) might be the most talented, but his career is swirling down the drain miscast as a pure runner of the ball in the interior – he needs to be the league's elite 3rd-down/C.O.P./pass game back – the new James White or J.D. McKissic.
Shocker, Pat Shurmur doesn’t see it.
Between disappointing results and lack of PPR and constant injury…why even keep Lindsay rostered in redraft right now? I guess waiting for a Gordon injury is all.
-- I’d be selling Tim Patrick (4-44-2/4) stock this week. Sweet 2 TD games but as long as he is stuck with Drew Lock, he’s never going to find consistency. He’s just a Flex hopeful at this stage in good matchups…and he really doesn’t have any sweet matchups the next 3 games. He’s talented but Lock-dependent is not good for FF scoring.
-- Speaking of Drew Lock (15-28 for 151 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs)…
Another less than 55% Comp. Pct. event.
Another INT game…seven straight games with at least one INT – 13 INTs in his last 7 games. When does anyone step in and throw in the towel?
Another loss.
He’s barely getting pressured. Teams just let him/beg him to throw (it to them) and he does.
It’s not even worth mentioning anymore, it's so far gone.
-- Jerry Jeudy (1-5-0/4) has one catch for 4 yards on 6 targets total his last two games.
Denver QBs have a 48.5 QB rating throwing in his direction. Nice. Great 1st-round pick. Real difference maker. He’s OK…but Lock-dependent is no way to go through FF-life.
Jeudy and Mecole Hardman (1-15-0/3) should get together and discuss how great they are among today’s WRs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = Le’Veon
31 = Darr Williams
61 = Tyreek
48 = Watkins
37 = Dem Rob
21 = Mecole
35 = Gordon
26 = Lindsay
04 = R Freeman
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College Football Metrics (CFM) 2021 subscriptions will be available for early sign up late December 2020/early January 2021.
It’s going to be a scouting NFL Draft season like no other – some top prospects opting out of their final college season, a unique schedule for CFB teams to have played, a different type of bowl season…a whole new backdrop to scout against. An experienced, talented scouting eye is going to rule. I have 10+ years of successful CFM scouting and analytics to lean on – I’m ready for the challenge.
I know the mainstream football analysis is going to butcher this year’s class even worse than normal – because they are going to blindly favor big school prospects more than ever, because those schools will have the only names they are truly familiar with, and it’s just the ‘name’ they are familiar with not their ‘game’. They’ll hive mind run with whatever names the collective seems to be buzzing about – because they don’t put in the work, they just echo things they’ve heard. I’m not saying that to be a jerk – it’s the open window of opportunity (their failure) that I was able to build my career/business upon.
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Go to our College Football Metrics or Fantasy Football Metrics subscription pages for more information. The new season sign up information will begin posting in the second half of December 2020.
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- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Lions 34, Bears 30
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
In the 1st-half of this game, everything made sense. The sad Lions were losing to the more desperate/still in the playoff hunt Bears 23-13 at halftime. The Bears didn’t look ‘great’ or anything, but 23 points scored in a half is nice for the Bears’ offense and somewhat expected versus a suspect Lions defense.
In the 2nd-half, I felt like had Matt Patricia been there…the Lions would’ve just rolled over and died. But, with Patricia fired the week prior, a collegiate spirit rose up/was there all game and the Lions were playing ‘free’ and ‘excited’…and they climbed back into the game.
When the Lions cut the Bears’ lead to 30-27 with 2:18 left, all Chicago needed to do was get a little drive going to run the clock out and win. On 3rd & 4, inside their own 20, Mitch Trubisky dropped back to pass and was stripped of the ball…turnover, Lions set up in great position – and they scored a quick TD to take a 34-30 lead with 1:37 remaining. Still time for the Bears.
Chicago drove right down the field and got to the Lions 20 for a 4th & 1 play with 0:16 left. The Bears chose to run it…David Montgomery stuffed…ballgame.
The mood of the Bears. The vibe…was much like the Matt Patricia Lions – not much spark or confidence, etc. This may be the game that was the final tipping point for Matt Nagy and the GM to get swept away in a few weeks. A loss to the Lions in a must-win spot, despite a 10-point lead at one point in the 4th-quarter.
With the win, the Lions are now (5-7) and just a game back of the last wild card spot. (8-8) will be the final wild card…the Lions at least have some playoff life. They also have some wins that could matter in tiebreakers – over Arizona (6-6) and Washington (5-7). However, the schedule ahead is not set up well for a miracle finish – GB, at TEN, TB, MIN. Detroit likely finishes at their current 5 wins…maybe sneaks a 6th win in there.
The Bears fall to (5-7) and are in danger of finishing in last place in the division. They have a little better path ahead to get to (8-8). They face HOU, at MIN, at JAX, GB the final four games. If they beat Houston this week to get to (6-7), they are likely facing (6-7) Minnesota for both of their playoff lives. The Bears would project to lose that contest, ultimately wind up (7-9) and let the firings begin.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I have a few ‘interesting’ (you’ll see) tidbits from this game, but my main thing I want to say (again): Darnell Mooney (4-43-0/6) has the makings of a superstar…I can see it.
I can see ‘it’.
I did earlier this season. I know ‘it’ when I see ‘it’ – and I see ‘it’ here.
Mooney might be the better Diontae Johnson – same feet off the snap, faster long speed, better hands (especially the last 2 weeks).
Mooney is starting to move and work with the similarities/confidence of Justin Jefferson. Yeah, that’s right. I said ‘it’.
Now, before you get too excited…
…but you should get excited…
But before getting too far out there…
Mooney is not working with ‘Quick Draw McDraw’ Big Ben throwing him 7,000 targets a game like Diontae is.
Mooney does not have Kirk Cousins either, nor can he work in the luxury of a home dome to maximize his speed demon ways.
Mooney plays in sloggy Chicago/Soldier’s Filed with low-end QB play and a terrible offensive mind for a head coach – in a world of WRs running jet sweeps for 5+ yards every time they do it…the 4.38 fleet feet of Mooney has run the ball ONCE this season. How does the Bears coaching staff not see NFL games and want to copy success and realize they have the perfect guy to try it with? You don’t need to answer…I know the answer.
It’s not going to be easy to overcome the obstacles and become a receiving/FF star playing for Chicago, as far as any of us can see into the near future. He might…he might not. What if the Bears get worse at head coach and QB next year?
All I know is this – Mooney is looking like, moving like an FF-future star. When we start to see the payoff is anyone’s guess.
Such a great opportunity this week vs. Houston. Not sure he will be allowed to take advantage of ‘it’.
-- Ok, you ready for this one? This is a first…
I thought this was the best game I’ve seen from David Montgomery (17-72-2, 4-39-0/4) in his career. He was moving better than I remember ever seeing him before – the best spring in his step, displaying some of that notorious ‘bounciness’.
He’s still overrated and shouldn’t be a full NFL lead, but DM looks fresh, confident, and effective. Useful for fantasy purposes.
In fact, Montgomery may be a guy that I target for 2021. The price is lower. The new car smell has worn off. If the new coach/GM doesn’t add any RBs of note…I’m willing to run with a mediocre/bad RB if they’re going to get all the work. I drafted falling (due to injury Week 1) Montgomery this preseason in redrafts on that same premise.
What’s the point of FF-owning a physical talent like Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, Devin Singletary (the better version of Montgomery), or a Darrell Henderson…if they’re in an RBBC, and/or have the QB rushing for all the TDs, and/or don’t see the pass game work?
You’re better off with Wayne Gallman of the moment…or David Montgomery being worshipped by their coaches or forced all the touches just because. Myles Gaskin is my new hero.
-- OK, how about this… (and it was a faithful FFMer who told me to go back and look at what’s developing)
Cole Kmet (5-37-1/7) is on the TE1 viability list for Weeks 14, and 15, and 16.
Why?
Weeks 1-9, Kmet was a rotational TE behind Jimmy Graham getting 30-40% snaps in a game and lucky to see 1-2 targets (8 targets his first 9 games of 2020).
Week 10, Kmet started playing 70% of the snaps and becoming ‘the starter’. Targets of 3 and 3 and then 7 targets (this game) in his three games ‘starting’.
I don’t think Kmet is anything special, but he’s not ‘bad’. Like with RBs…an FF tight end’s best quality is ‘playing time’ and ‘targets’ (and ‘QB they’re playing with’). Kmet is not much different a species than T.J. Hockenson (7-84-0/9) – big, bulky, prototype TEs who have average speed but a big frame and solid enough hands…and they come with ‘draft stock, so coaches are going to force them into the action…they’re going to get action just by being on the field.
Robert Tonyan is a better version of this because of the QB he plays with, and he’s a better athlete than most TEs (the former college WR). Hockenson works with a solid-ish Stafford/good playing conditions (dome) for the passing game (hell, TJH is the #4 PPR PPG TE in fantasy this year…by attrition).
Kmet has a bad field in December and weaker QB play. However, the field conditions can work in his favor a bit – he’s a short, simple throw in a stunted offense. We saw some signs of that this week, in good passing conditions. There’s a nice, simple pitch-and-catch with Trubisky-Kmet developing.
Hard to make a call for a rise to TE1 out of nowhere, but he’s playing the snaps to help…and HOU-MIN-JAX the next 3 weeks. It’s something to consider among the Dissly-Sample-Akins crowd.
-- Case in point on ‘it’s better for an FF RB to be mildly talented but be worshipped by his coach than to be a Combine delight prospect with a ton of talent’ – Adrian Peterson (16-57-2, 0-0-0/1).
You would have been wise to have AP over Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley for Weeks 12-13 of 2020 season.
D’Andre Swift is still unknown to comeback Week 14. It could be another AP week again this week.
-- May I get something off my chest? May I be salty about it? Many of you will appreciate this next statement.
Thanks for nothing, Marvin Jones (8-116-1/12)…you stupid Son of a B.
Oh, how clever it was by me to go heavy RB in preseason redrafts and just fade WRs because you could get undervalued guys like Marvin Jones and laugh all the way to the FF title.
By Week 3-4-5, I had to cut Marvin everywhere…he sucked. The Lions sucked. He was doing nothing. Good riddance.
Since Week 8, he’s the #12 WR in PPR PPG in fantasy (4 or more games played).
He has 5 TDs in his past 6 games and 6.5 catches per game the past 4 weeks.
…and I own him nowhere during all this…during all what I was looking for to start the 2020 season.
Hey, at least my Best Ball teams are prospering.
Hey, at least I don’t look like a full-on stupid idiot for promoting him for 2020. In raw PPR points, he’s #30 among all WRs this season. I just got the order of events wrong…or God hates me.
-- My final item, my aggravation with Mitch Trubisky (26-34 for 267 yards, 1 TD/0 INT)…
He could’ve been so much better.
Half the blame on Matt Nagy. Half the blame on mitch…he doesn’t have the heart for this. He has all the tools…he’s a ‘five tool’ QB prospect. He just doesn’t have the 6th tool (so far) -- heart, courage, aggression.
Every time Trubisky could be running his way out of trouble, or for offense, and then keeping defense’s honest with his feet…he won’t take off and run. He’s scared. He should be the elite version of Taysom Hill…but Taysom has guts and heart that Trubisky doesn’t have.
Trubisky is never going to succeed until he has a heart transplant. His career could only be saved by one head coach, maybe two getting his head tweaked – Sean McDermott or Matt Rhule. Trubisky as the backup to Josh Allen is genius if the Bills can pull it off. I mean, Matt Barkley is not going to do anything for anyone.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Mooney
51 = ARob
39 = A Miller
28 = Wims
52 = DMontg
17 = CPatt
64 = Marvin Jones
40 = Sanu
33 = Amendola
32 = AP
30 = Kerryon
06 = Jon Williams
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Browns 41, Titans 35
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
What happened here?
Where to begin?
How did this get to 38-7 at the half, and turn into a one-score win with TEN an onside kick away from possibly the greatest comeback in NFL history by the end?
The best way I can explain it is…this was two evenly matched teams, in a general sense. One of them caught breaks early and then it rolled downhill on the opponent from there. Then the exact opposite of that happened in the 2nd-half. I could go over all the fluky plays to allow the things that happened to happen – like the Browns stopping Derrick Henry on a 4th & 1 early in the game on a bad spot by the refs…fumbles at the wrong time/wrong place on the field, bad penalties, bad defensive gambles, great play by one of the QBs in one half, then flipped to the other QB the 2nd-half.
I guess the best way to put it is…
The Browns won the first 30 minutes, 38-7. Impressive. Shocking.
The Titans won the next 30 minutes, 28-3. Impressive. Forgotten in the wake of losing.
Should I be impressed Cleveland took a 31-point 1st-half lead? Or should I be focused on questioning how they could get thumped by 25-points in the 2nd-half of said lead? Which Browns half of performance should I focus on? Same question for the Titans?
I’m not sure there is a satisfying answer. Just another week in the NFL…in all its glory.
This was a massive win for the Browns…they now have wins over Indy and Tennessee when it comes down to any tiebreakers for the wild card…but the Browns are now at (9-3) might be ahead of them without the need for the tiebreaker.
We’ll learn everything we need to know about the Browns this week – hosting fading Baltimore. If the Browns go out and beat up the Ravens Week 14, then I’m a believer and Kevin Stefanski gets the Coach of the Year award over Bill Belichick. If the Ravens drop kick them on national TV/MNF…all the doubts on the Browns come rushing back in and the 1st-half of this particular game is long forgotten.
If the Steelers lose to the Bills on Sunday Week 14…and then the Browns go out and crush Baltimore to draw within a game of the division – it will be stunning and Week 17 vs. PIT could be for the division. If they go out, with their big opportunity, and get smacked around by the Ravens the Browns are mortal and will finish (10-6) and a nice wild card berth.
Tennessee falls to (8-4), stuck in a tie with the Colts for 1st-place in the AFC South. It will be a fight to the finish for the Titans because you never know what version of the team is showing up one week to the next. They should finish with 10-11 wins and hold a tiebreaker over Indy for the South if it’s a battle of 10-win teams in the end. Loser to the wild card.
It’s hard to read a lot into this game for FF, because how many times will these two teams be in a game like this…one of them down/up 31 in the 1st-half…a frenetic comeback 2nd-half…76 points scored?
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Baker Mayfield (25-33 for 334 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) may be ‘happening’…I was just off by a year.
11 TDs/1 INT his last six games, but an odd pattern of TDs in games in that span. TD counts in games in that span (in order starting Week 7): 5-0-0-0-2-4.
The 4 and 5 TDs in a game is what I wanted from him…last year. But then you see the three 0 TD games and are like, what the…? But consider two of those zeros were in colder, unusually windy/high wind gust games.
If I look at Baker’s season and ignore his two wind gust games…he has 21 TD passes in his 10 other games. That’s 2.1 TD passes per game. Umm, that’s high-end action in the NFL. If the two wind gusts games were indoors/normal, maybe Baker has 25+ TD passes this year-to-date (based on his 2.1 per game pace in 2020)? That would be good for 9th best in the NFL right now…a TD away from the top 6.
My scouting…my belief on Baker…has always been – one of the best passers, one of the best vision/read the coverage throwers I’ve ever scouted. I think it’s starting to happen. I think Baker is becoming a top 15 QB…trying to be a top 10. Maybe he already is on talent.
…and if he is, then we all generally ‘like’/fear betting against teams that have QBs that give a team hope. Is that why the Browns are (9-3). Because Baker can win games as needed when the run game isn’t dominating? It’s certainly not the defense winning these games. Nick Chubb missed about a third/half the season...it’s not all Chubb. Everything got better when OBJ went out, as I proclaimed it would for two years. It’s not Rashard Higgins or Austin Hooper or the kicker.
It has to be Baker is arriving.
The 2020 pattern seems to be…beat up the lesser teams and fall to the good ones, in general for Baker this season. Beating the Ravens Week 14 is a big litmus test on whether Baker has (re)arrived or not.
Colin Cowherd. I respect you, even though I don’t hardly watch your show anymore. Can I ask you and the entire mainstream football scouting community…who ya got now – Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold? You all said Darnold in unison years ago. How about now? Ready to admit your error?
Serious question…
Is Baker Mayfield better to have for your NFL team now/into the future…or Lamar Jackson? Imagine asking that this time last season. What if the Browns beat the Ravens this week and Baker looks good, and Lamar looks as bad as Baker did last year doing it?
Kevin Stefanski for Coach of the Year…definitely in the running for the award, if not the favorite. We all agree on that.
How about if Baker wins this week – Baker for MVP, anyone? I mean like a top 5-10 vote, not #1. But seriously…if Stefanski gets an award for doing the impossible – what does Baker deserve for the same? Because he IS the main reason for this.
FYI, Baker Mayfield is 21-20-0 as a Browns starter…not including his debut win in a comeback relief over the Jets his rookie season. Memba that? Baker Mayfield has taken the Browns to a winning record over his three years. Who wants to trade him away now?
For Fantasy…I think we need to get re-excited, no? Baker wasn’t the issue in 2019, apparently. 2021 without OBJ and Landry…Baker could go to new heights.
-- Ryan Tannehill (29-45 for 389 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) gets lost in all this. One of the other great reclamation stories of the past few years. Any credit for him leading this comeback? Look at those numbers.
Tannehill is 6th in the NFL in TD passes this season.
The #9 QB in 4pts pass TD fantasy PPG among QBs. #8 in 6pts per pass TD.
-- Corey Davis (11-182-1/12) is on fire for sure. But his numbers are coming in favorable matchups. This game result was awesome…but last week he caught a quiet/safe 3 passes for 70 yards.
It’s been a redemption year for sure, but it’s also been kind of erratic…kind of hiding with everyone focused on A.J. Brown in coverage. I haven’t seen any ‘wow’ activity…he’s just solid in a top 10 efficient pass game/QB.
A.J. Brown provides ‘wow’. Davis provides…’nice’/solid.
Very good schedule ahead to keep Davis rolling, however.
-- To my Corey Davis point…Rashard Higgins (6-95-1/9) rolled numbers too, but no ticker tape parade has been thrown for him.
Corey Davis has 4 TDs this season.
Higgins has 3 TDs only really playing starting Week 5, and not starting until recently.
If Tannehill is sneaky efficient causing the #2 WR to have big games…then can sneaky efficient Baker cause Higgins to have more big games ahead?
The problem is the schedule is awful the next two weeks for that to happen for Higgins…whereas Davis has an amazing schedule. But don’t write off Higgins yet…but do write him off against the Ravens, that’s a bad matchup probably.
-- Anthony Firkser (5-51-0/7) had a nice stat line but it looked really ‘nothing’ on tape. Most of it came very late, with Cleveland dropping deep in prevent and Tannehill just dumping simple passes short to Firkser. Most all his targets came in the two final drives…for the first 62-69 points of this game, you didn’t even know Firkser was playing hardly.
Snap Counts of Interest:
38 = Swaim
32 = Pruitt
30 = Firkser
36 = Chubb
35 = Hunt
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It’s going to be a scouting NFL Draft season like no other – some top prospects opting out of their final college season, a unique schedule for CFB teams to have played, a different type of bowl season…a whole new backdrop to scout against. An experienced, talented scouting eye is going to rule. I have 10+ years of successful CFM scouting and analytics to lean on – I’m ready for the challenge.
I know the mainstream football analysis is going to butcher this year’s class even worse than normal – because they are going to blindly favor big school prospects more than ever, because those schools will have the only ‘names’ that they are truly familiar with, and it’s just the ‘name’ they are familiar with not their ‘game’. They’ll hive mind run with whatever names the collective seems to be buzzing about – because they don’t put in the work, they just echo things they’ve heard. I’m not saying that to be a jerk – it’s the open window of opportunity (their failure) that I was able to build my career/business upon.
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Go to our College Football Metrics or Fantasy Football Metrics subscription pages for more information. The new season sign up information will begin posting in the second half of December 2020.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Saints 21, Falcons 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Saints were definitely the better team here, but it was a lot closer than the last time these two met…and the Falcons had a shot to win it late but blew it.
Everything to know about this game happened with just under 2 minutes left…
Falcons with the ball, down 21-16, 2nd & 2 from the Saints 13-yard line at the two-minute warning. Also, note that Todd Gurley missed last week’s game and was limited this week with a knee injury…and he didn’t start this game or play much until they got near the red zone. The work that he did do was pretty sad to that point – Gurley looks like he’s operating at 50% capacity favoring/worried about his knee. Anyone watching could see there was a problem.
Got all that? Atlanta can win this game converting 2nd & 2 and going on to score a TD. They’re back in the playoff picture if they can get this 1st-down/then TD from 13 yards away.
2nd & 2…run with Gurley, no yards. Everyone was like…why run Gurley there knowing the issues?
3rd & 2…run with Gurley, he tries to kick it outside…which…’the knee’…he ends up taking 3rd & 2 and losing 7 yards to create 4th & 9 from the 20-yard line. The Falcons don’t convert, turn it over on downs…ball game.
NFL coaches are inexplicable. Gregg Williams’ play call/coverage at the end of the Jets-Raiders fiasco might have not even been in the top five of stupidest things coaches did just this week. These back-to-back rushing attempts with wounded Gurley…dumber than the Gregg Williams stunt.
The Saints survive and go to (10-2), holding the lead for the #1 seed over (9-3) Green Bay. Week 15 vs. KC looms. (13-3) is their likely finish but (12-4) is as likely, in which case they might hand the #1 seed to GB – and teams having to go to Lambeau field in January vs. to the dome in New Orleans…it changes everything, more for the Saints than any other NFC team.
The Falcons find a way to lose, again, and fall to (4-8). Five wins by the end is the best they can hope for…they have at LAC this week, and then TB-KC-TB to finish.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The aforementioned Todd Gurley (8-16-0, 1-4-0/1)…seriously, it doesn’t look good. Why they insist on pushing him out there in his condition is ridiculous on several fronts…
1) The guy is going to get himself hurt worse trying to run gingerly away from getting hurt. He’s a wounded/hindered gazelle among the herd trying to runaway from the hungry speedy cheetahs.
2) The season is lost. Gurley will be a free agent. Why not see what Ito Smith and Brian Hill (and Qadree Ollison) have to offer? Raheem Morris wants an opportunity to show what he can do in this lost season, but won’t afford others the same?
I think it is very possible Todd Gurley gets shut down for the season now that Atlanta is all but out of it. If not this week, then next – which means the alternative ATL RBs could have meaning ahead…something to consider for Week 14 bye teams looking to sit on a situation that could fall into their laps.
But do you go Ito or Hill?
Brian Hill (5-18-0) started this game, but then played the least number of snaps…two games in-a-row he’s had a golden opportunity and done nothing with it.
Ito Smith (8-36-0, 1-0-0/2), for the second week in-a-row played more snaps/looked better…fresher…more determined. This was the last stand game for ATL for the playoffs, and Ito led the RBs with 24 snaps…Hill 11 snaps. You have to say Ito is the main guy if Gurley goes down and out.
If Gurley is active…Ito and Hill won’t FF-matter/you won’t use them. However, if Gurley is put on IR this week or next…it’s Ito lead and Hill trying to chase into work. Both have everything in the world to play for to show good tape for their future.
Sadly, Week 15…Ito vs. Tampa Bay is a bad matchup if it comes down to it. Week 16 at KC is better.
Qadree Ollison? Raheem Morris doesn’t seem to care.
-- It’s not looking any better for Hayden Hurst (1-9-0/4). He got nicked up Week 10-11 and hasn’t been the same since. Two of his last 3 FF game results have been a disaster. Matt Ryan is dying. His throws to Hurst were useless in this game. You have my blessing to seek other TE relief if needed/desired.
-- Taysom Hill (27-37 for 232 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 14-83-0) is likely making his final start at QB Week 14. Just a note on something to consider with him…
Once Brees is back, if Taysom reverts to TE designation (as he should, it’s ridiculous leagues that can’t wait to designate him a QB but then won’t acknowledge him playing TE otherwise) – he’s not a bad hold/use as one of your TEs.
He’s a TE1 potential playing his limited snaps as it is at TE -- but he may see more snaps at QB, when Brees is back, while playing his TE, subbing in for Brees more because Taysom is so integrated now at QB…no longer just a gimmick. Taysom could get a lot of TE work between the 20s and then a lot of QB work in the red zone…with the FF-bonus that in-game Brees gets hurt and Taysom drops back into QB while starting as your FF TE.
-- Three starts for Taysom at QB, so far…
Alvin Kamara (15-88-1, 2-9-0/3) has three catches for 7 yards total in those three games. What happens to AK’s value if Taysom is the Saints starting QB in 2021?
-- Where the H did ATL DE Steven Means (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks) come from? He is a very long-armed, relentless pass rusher off the edge. A menace that was unblockable half this game…but he was rotating in and out all game. If I were the Falcons, I would never take him off the field…he IS their pass rush now.
His last three games…he’s averaging 4.3 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 0.67 forced fumbles per game.
2012 = 5th-round draft pick out of Buffalo by Tampa Bay
2013 = Tampa Bay backup/warm body
2014 = Cut by TB, signed by BAL
2015 = BAL, to IR, cut…signed by HOU…signed away by PHI
2016 = PHI
2017 = PHI signed to a 1-year extension
2018 = Cut by PHI, signed by ATL
2019 = ATL puts on IR
From 2013-2019, six teams played for and 36 game appearances over 7 years with just 3.0 sacks/27 tackles total. Means has as many sacks the last two games as he had the prior 7.5 years.
He was a pretty good pass rusher in college. He looks really good on this week’s tape. We’ll see if he keeps it up.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
24 = Ito
22 = Gurley
11 = Hill
42 = Hurts
24 = Stocker
48 = AK
32 = Latavius
42 = Josh Hill
28 = J Cook
27 = Trautman
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Dolphins 19, Bengals 7
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Here is the main game note from the team level: The Dolphins are barely better than the Bengals. They struggled to defeat that Brandon Allen-led, then Ryan Finley-led Bengals.
This game was 7-6 Bengals at the half, and you didn’t know who the better team was…it looked like Cincy, really. Miami’s defense clamped down and the Bengals didn’t score in the 2nd-half, then lost their QB in the 4th-quarter…and then there was no way Cincy was getting back into the game.
A defensive struggle/offensive ineptitude struggle – just one TD for each team in the game. Miami was 1-for-10 on 3rd-downs.
Cincy falls to (2-9-1)…losers of seven of their last 8 games. Probably going to lose out and finish (2-13-1) and snag the #3 pick in the draft. Worst thing for them is to beat Dallas and send the Cowboys ahead of them in the draft order this week.
Miami has won seven of their last 8 games and are now (8-4). They need two wins, probably, to be a wild card…but they may lose their next 4 games in an epic collapse to the finish because of the schedule and starting Tua. KC-NE-LV-BUF ahead is likely trouble. (9-7) might be their best case – and if they get to (9-7) while losing Week 16 at Las Vegas…then the Raiders are likely in, and Miami out. We see (9-7) for Miami and more out than in.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I gotta express this, first and foremost…Tua Tagovailoa (26-39 for 296 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-3-0) has no business starting in the NFL. Tim Tebow was a more impressive left-handed thrower.
I’m not trying to harp on Tua because I scouted him as ‘average’ with worries…where 100.1% of the highly paid draft/football analysts all worshipped the ground he walks on. I don’t need to lie/massage my points to help me look good. There is no victory in me holding a bad hand while telling myself it’s a good hand. If you know my work – you know I am the first to admit a possible error and then a full error if needed, and changing course. I ‘call them like I see them’…and I call things better than anyone in football, especially at QB scouting. That’s not an opinion, that’s a fact. My record is on full display daily.
And what I see with Tua…is a MAJOR problem.
I re-watch Miami/Tua games hoping to see something to disprove what I see live, but it only confirms/is worse than I thought each time. Tua is a horrible NFL QB prospect right now. And I don’t see glimpses of him growing out of it.
Tua has two bad high school offense throws he makes over and over…
1) Looks one way then quickly pivots to the other side of the field and throws it before he even sees what’s happening. Tyrod Taylor comes to mind as someone who does this from time-to-time – it’s mildly deceptive occasionally, but Tua goes to this well way too much right now – and Tyrod could pull it down and run if he saw his pivot option covered right before the throw. Tua can’t run near as well.
No one throws more passes to covered receivers, to nowhere, to places where the WR isn’t than Tua in games – because the WR might change a route based on coverage and Tua isn’t even looking, he’s just throwing to what the play/route ‘should be’ or was planned first option to be.
I’m telling you he’s going to have a game ahead with like 3-4-5 picks in 2-3 quarters of play, and then the panic should start (it should have already started)…but the first time it happens it will be excused away until the next one and the next one.
2) Tua play action, rollout fake and throw short immediately. NFL defensive coordinators will figure out that Tua is always rolling to his left…and when they blitz that and cut it off, he’s done. When he faces Belichick Week 15, it’s going to be a bloodbath.
Miami’s passing game is built simplistically around Tua’s limitations. Miami has played a lot of bad teams in Tua’s initial run as starter or got up via defense and been able to stick with simplicity/protection. When a stronger defense challenged Tua so far…it’s a problem.
12 of 22 for 93 yards and 3 sacks vs. the Rams in his debut – you want to excuse it for his debut. But then 11 of 20 for 83 yards and sacked 6 times…and then benched for about a quarter vs. Denver.
You should bet KC -7.0 for this week as fast as you can, but while simultaneously taking a small, early position in betting New England +2.5 ahead now for Week 15…because the Tua exposure is coming this week most likely…in a blowout loss to KC. The risk being they’ll send Fitz into that NE game halfway and ruin it. Brian Flores seems pretty (institutionally) committed to Tua, so not sure he’ll bench him without an injury excuse.
I would call Tua a left-handed Dwayne Haskins right now, but that would be an insult to Haskins. That’s how bad this looks. I’m not joking. It’s surreal how bad he’s playing and yet how gushing the mainstream is about how great he’s playing – they see the wins, and just assume. They are about to get embarrassed here.
Tua is worse than rookie year Sam Darnold right now. And like Darnold, not the physical size/tools to fix it/change it…like Josh Allen was able to.
-- As I’m watching Tua flounder (1 of 10 on 3rd-downs against Cincinnati…are you kidding me?), I am watching Brandon Allen (11-19 for 153 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) be calm, cool, and collected against a top NFL defense with no O-Line to protect him.
Allen is better than Tua right now…and it’s not even close. And that’s not to say Allen is playing glowing football, he’s just solid in a tough spot.
I am changing my Bengals’ WR projections back to near Burrow levels…what they lose with Allen’s talent (compared to Burrow) they can make up some in volume/down in games/garbage time.
-- Allen seems to like Drew Sample (7-49-0/7) more than Burrow did.
5.5 rec., 44.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game with Allen the last two games/Allen’s two starts.
It doesn't look magical/it's pretty basic...but it's something among the TE riff-raff.
-- Tua’s best throw is to Mike Gesicki (9-88-1/11) because when Tua throws his blind balloon balls…Gesicki is tall enough to try and go get them. He has been…or did this game. A TD in each of the last two weeks, but just 2 catches Week 12…then 9 this week. It’s all so erratic. KC is likely to have a plan for this simplistic throw.
-- Lynn Bowden (1-11-0, 4-41-0/4) is working some slot WR and some tailback, normally I’d get FF-excited about that BUT Bowden does not look like an NFL starting WR or RB talent to me. Not at all. He’s getting some touches by attrition here, but I don’t see much upside or future so far. There might be a game he gets 5-6-7 catches as the short game/quick throw guy, but not for many yards or TDs or break away after the catch ability.
It’s still early, too early to make a definitive call…but I don’t love what I see. His original draft team had the same fears apparently…trading him before the season even started.
-- Gio Bernard (13-30-0, 2-0-0/2) seems like he has fallen off a cliff the last 4 weeks, but there’s two things to consider…
1) Faced PIT-WSH-NYG-MIA the past 4 weeks…all top 10 NFL defenses. Faces Dallas this week…not a top 10 defense.
2) He’s getting the majority of the work regardless. They trust him and Zac Taylor is desperate to win. Gio should get good touches this week v. DAL. Not so hot vs. PIT Week 15. A possible gem Week 16 v. HOU.
-- Emmanuel Ogbah (2 tackles) had just two tackles and no sacks here…one of our top 3 projected IDP scorers going into this week because of the sack potential against Cincy. Miami did sack the QB 6 times in this game, just no Ogbah sacks…but not for a lack of trying – he had a stellar 5 QB hits in the game, just didn’t get his sacks.
The entire Cincy defense registered 2 QB hits on Tua, by comparison.
Snap Counts of Interest:
50 = Gaskin
31 = Bowden
19 = Laird
35 = Gio
17 = Perine
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Giants 17, Seahawks 12
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I love the national media analysis of this game…
It goes: Wow! Seattle really had an off game. Boy those Giants are scrappy. Anyways…have you seen D.K. Metcalf’s abs? Wow, that’s a story. Seattle needs to let Russ cook more, and they’d win every game!!
Everything in analysis of this game (and every Seattle game) is through a Seattle-prism. Seattle wins…well, Russell Wilson was FINALLY allowed to ‘cook’. Seattle loses…well, why won’t they let Russ cook? I mean, they (the media) all talk nonstop about how great a coach Pete Carroll is…and then the next sentence immediately echo/complain about Russ not being allowed to practice culinary arts.
Who the hell do you think is in charge of the cooking time allotment? You can’t have it both ways. Either Wilson secretly is wildly overrated…or Pete Carroll is a horrific coach who doesn’t know the first thing about the cooking process. You cannot keep up the ‘letting Russ cook’ crap, and then go on about young Pete Carroll looks for his age and hanging onto the one Super Bowl he won many years ago.
This was not a story on whether Seattle decided to cook or not – the story is the Giants went to Seattle, entered the kitchen, grabbed a rolling pin, and beat the bloody hell out of the Seahawks…and that the Giants have one of the five best defenses in the NFL now and they’re dangerous because they have such a great defense.
Nope.
All we get is…’boy, the Giants are better than we thought…I guess. Isn’t that crazy? Boy, any given Sunday…amiright?’
Seattle got-got. Seattle scored no TDs the first 53+ minutes of this game – that’s how good this NYG defense is. Seattle was down 17-12 and had the ball with 1:48, from their own 20, and two timeouts left…so, of course they are going to ‘cook’ their way down the field and win the game. Too much time left on the clock for Wilson in that situation. Even worse for NYG, their star LB Blake Martinez had to come out of the game for the final drive. There’s no way Seattle won’t roll down the field and win against the pathetic NFC East representatives. Seattle got to midfield with 1:04 left…and then incomplete (easy pick dropped), incomplete, sack, Hail Mary incomplete…ball game. Seattle couldn’t even make a threat on the final drive.
The Giants manhandled the Seattle offense…and put up just enough offense to pull off the upset. Great, gutty performance by the G-Men. The Giants move to (5-7) and into 1st-place in the NFC East (tiebreaker over 5-7 Washington). There’s a path to 7, maybe 8 wins for the Giants. Safe bet is 7…and 7 wins, wins the NFC East most likely.
Seattle falls to (8-4) and into 2nd-place in the NFC West (tiebreaker loss to the 8-4 Rams). Seattle should be able to get to 10 wins, maybe 11 and for sure a wild card. The NFC West winner likely comes down to the team that wins Week 16 LAR at SEA.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Just another 30+ minutes more commentary on the Giants defense and then I’ll get to everything else, I swear…
Seriously, this is proof that you can rebuild a defense in one offseason. Remember how bad everyone thought this defense was last year…and then their 1st-round pick CB DeAndre Baker gets arrested in the offseason? Remember, that Dave Gettleman needed to be fired? I thought so.
In 2020 free agency, Gettleman landed arguably the #1-2-3 CB in the NFL right now – James Bradberry (7 tackles, 1 PD), who just pretty much shutdown D.K. Metcalf (5-80-0/8) whenever he was on him. Some of the catches were low probability plays that Bradberry was all over, but a couple got through by a whisker margin.
Gettleman also landed the top LB in free agency, one of the best LBs in the game – Blake Martinez (10 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD).
Gettleman traded for what was thought to be has-been Leonard Williams (3 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and added solid veteran DB Logan Ryan (3 tackles) in September.
Executive of the Year type of work, and then adding D-C Patrick Graham put it all together and he changed the play of guys like Jabrill Peppers (another Gettleman trade) and in less than a year the Giants went from one of the worst defenses in the NFL to one of the best.
The defense won this game here. Russell Wilson was flustered/off all game…and sacked 5 times. Imagine if this NYG defense adds 1-2 ace pieces in 2021? Gettleman has shown he can do that…he hit on too many moves this past year for it to be deemed ‘luck’.
Week 14 v. ARI is not a favorable matchup, on paper…unless you start looking at this defense as top tier – then it might hold down the recently flailing Air Raid.
Week 15 vs. CLE…might be a positive for NYG-DST as well. Even Week 16 at BAL might not be too bad with fading Lamar Jackson. They are not optimal FF-matchups but like what happened with them vs. Seattle…most matchups might be optimal if it involves the NYG-DST.
-- I started seeing Russell Wilson look at Will Dissly (4-28-0/5) as a real option in the passing game again this game. It was good to see after a ‘zero’ last week for Dissly in his first game with Greg Olsen gone. Dissly can be a 3-4 catch, 30-50 yards, and 50-50 shot for a TD type of TE every week…and that’s a TE1 these days.
Jacob Hollister (3-20-0/4) is in the game more in passing situations, hurry up, etc. But he’s not a big desire for Wilson. Dissly is an option in the normal/routine offense.
Colby Parkinson is not ready yet…just two snaps played this week.
-- Wayne Gallman (16-135-0) continues to prove that any RB with some heart and can run a 4.65 or better 40-time can be a success in the NFL if they just get the damn ball.
The smart thing to do for Dave Gettleman would be to trade Saquon Barkley in August or after the 2021 season. Investing big money in RBs has gotten beyond a ridiculous way to run NFL teams. But they won’t…gotta have those jersey sales and must avoid media criticism at all costs.
Keep betting on Gallman every week for right now…it’s working. I don’t think Devonta Freeman will be back to mess with Gallman’s touches any time soon (but who knows). Likely, Freeman will be kept aside for him to get ready to be ready if Gallman gets hurt…or Freeman comes in and runs the Alf Morris role.
-- Sterling Shepard (1-22-0/6) caught an early-game 22-yard pass, and I was pleased…surely he’d get 5+ catches for 60+ yards and hopefully somehow score a TD. His next five targets were not connected, and it ended up to be an FF-dud.
Shepard is the Giants’ #1 WR, for FF, for whatever it is worth…just not worth much this game.
-- IDP notes…
Seattle rookie LB Jordyn Brooks (11 tackles) is starting to breakout a little bit. This was his first game with 60%+ snaps played (it was 77%) this season and he responded with 11 tackles. Brooks is not as good as fellow rookie LB Kenneth Murray, but he’s still good/promising.
Seattle CB D.J. Reed (6 tackles, 1 TFL) is FF-nice when forced to start. 8.3 tackles per game Weeks 8-11, when Shaq Griffin was out. Griffin returned Week 12 and Reed played ZERO snaps on defense. Week 13, Tre Flowers got hurt and went on IR…so Reed started here and made 6 tackles.
-- The Seattle-DST is holding up as a play, despite the loss. Two games in-a-row holding an opponent to 17 points. Facing NYJ-WSH the next two weeks…it’s two strong DST starts for them.
CB Tre Flowers out hurts, but Quinton Dunbar could be active this week and that’s a huge help.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
42 = Carson
18 = Hyde
12 = DeeJay Dallas
28 = Gallman
11 = Alf Morris
12 = Dion Lewis
39 = Dissly
39 = Hollister
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Vikings 27, Jaguars 24 OT
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was my Survivor pool pick (Minnesota) and I felt great about…until the opening drive the Jacksonville ended with Mike Glennon throwing a pick right to Harrison Smith near the goal line, who butchered the grab, the ball deflected off his hands, changed directions…right into Laviska Shenault’s awaiting arms for a cheap TD.
I felt like we could overcome that lucky start easily, and then the Jags got the ball back and kicked a field goal to go up 9-0…and this wasn’t how this was supposed to go!
Minnesota drove right back and scored on the next series…OK, this is good…then they missed the XP. This wasn’t going to be my day. It’s OK…it’s only 9-6 Jags, we’re fine…then Kirk Cousins threw a pick six and now it was 16-6, and I’m like…this wasn’t meant to be. MIN starting LB Eric Kendricks going down minutes before the game started was a sign that this was going to go bad. I knew it.
Minnesota got the lead back late 3rd-quarter, and I felt better again…19-16 MIN…then a Vikings safety to go up 21-16…then a Minny field goal with 3:50 left to go up 24-16. All we needed was a stop against a Jags team that hasn’t scored a TD since/except the lucky deflection pass TD on the very first series 1st-series. They would have to score a real TD, THEN convert the 2-pointer. No way. It’s in the bag.
Not in the bag…the Jaguars scored a TD and then converted the 2-pointer to tie the game and we went to OT. Back and forth with ineptitude until finally Dan Bailey kicked the chip shot FG with 1:49 left to get the Survivor win in the bank – off we go to Week 14.
Minnesota played a lazy, mediocre game and were the better team but were very lucky to win. They are now (6-6) and firmly in the wild card chase. HUGE game with Tampa Bay Week 14. If they can win it…they look great for the wild card (and sends TB reeling). If they lose, they’ll likely finish (8-8) on the season…and that’s probably good enough for the last wild card spot #7, possibly the #6 seed.
Jacksonville continues on hoping the Jets lose so the Jags can lay claim to the #1 pick/Trevor Lawrence. The FF values of D.J. Chark and Denzel Mims (among others) hang in the balance! Jacksonville will go (1-15) but have to hope the Jets have some horrific weather game to try and actually win from here on in.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Two games in as a starter, and Mike Glennon (28-42 for 280 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) looks perfectly OK/comfortable as a starter. He’s not good. He wilts under pressure. Keep him protected and he’s plausible/can run the offense.
Glennon’s TD pass was that sure INT deflected/re-routed into a TD pass…or we would have had 0 TDs/3 INTs here, potentially. Gardner Minshew is back and should be starting…but if you want a sign that either the Jags are trying to low key subvert wins, or that Doug Marrone is a terrible head coach – not starting Minshew over Glennon is the sign. Even the players have to realize this, that’s why I want to bet against the Jags every week – they are set up to lose, it’s just will they be within/cover on the point spread.
No serious NFL head coach in their right mind starts Glennon over Minshew…especially in a lost season. You’d start the young player and let them try and work themselves into value for trade or prep for being a backup to your rookie QB, etc. You start Glennon because you’re try to aid and abed getting to the #1 pick.
Same reason you keep Marrone coaching. Jags’ management doesn’t want a spark created by a coaching change and accidentally win a game and blow this. You can’t just be obvious about things, so these are the things you do -- start Glennon/bench Minshew (it’s unfair to Minshew, but they don’t care...it’s dog-eat-dog). To them, getting Trevor Lawrence will change their franchise for a decade – it’s serious business to keep losing.
-- Who is Glennon working in the passing game after his two starts?
D.J. Chark (2-41-0/7) returned from his injury and had all the coverage attention and Glennon avoided or couldn’t connect with him all game – and that’s with a young/struggling CB group with Minnesota. If this doesn’t work against them/the Vikes CBs – what chance is there ahead? DJC is a WR3, but in 2021…he could be the #1 WR in a contract year with Trevor Lawrence.
It’s not Keelan Cole (1-7-0/2) as a Glennon preference…two targets this game, and averaging 2.0 rec., 25.5 yards per game with Glennon in his 2 starts.
Collin Johnson (4-66-0/6) is the main thing working for Glennon. It’s the best of all worlds here. Glennon would have spent the most time all year working the backup group offense with Johnson all season. Johnson is super tall, so Glennon can see him/high point desperation throw to him. And Johnson will be the receiver getting the least coverage game-to-game. Collin is averaging 3.0 rec., 81.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game with Glennon.
Tyler Eifert (6-45-0/6) has become plausible-ish under Glennon…4.5 rec., 30.5 yards, 0.5 TDs per game with him. That’s TE1 money these days. Hard to bet on…but it’s something. He is playing 60%+ of the game snaps with Glennon these days.
-- Make it three games in-a-row for Kirk Cousins (28-43 for 305 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) with 3 passing TDs in a game. Make it four of his last 5 games with 3 TD passes in a game. Make it five of his last 7 games with 3 TD passes in a game.
Everyone can focus all they want on ‘letting Russ cook’, but since Week 6…
24.17 FF PPG (4pts per TD) = R Wilson
24.15 FF PPG = Cousins (#9 QB overall in PPG in that span)
20.87 FF PPG = Brady
18.33 FF PPG = Big Ben
If you flip that board to 6pts per pass TD…Cousins jumps past Russ…Lamar…Josh Allen to become the #6 FF scorer in PPG since Week 6.
When will we demand Kirk be allowed to not-Cook(Dalvin)?
In this ‘since Week 6’ span…Justin Jefferson (9-121-1/12) is the #3 PPR PPG WR in fantasy, behind only Davante and Tyreek.
-- None of the Vikings’ TE matters for FF, but…
Kyle Rudolph (0-0-0/2) is hurt and may miss Week 14.
Irv Smith has had a groin injury holding him out for weeks now, and he’s likely to be out Week 14 – but if you see Smith getting back in with Rudolph out…that’s some FF hope.
If both Rudolph and Smith are out, Tyler Conklin (1-10-0/1) would be the main pass catching TE…and he’s a decent receiving TE who has been buried in Minnesota for years. He would be a shock fantasy TE for Week 14 with the two starters out.
*Shopping Online with Amazon this Holiday Season? Who isn’t?
Did you know if you click through the Amazon link from the FFM homepage (our partners/shop with us area) it doesn’t change your online shopping experience or cost you any money but somehow the big brother technology credits FFM with helping with the sale and we gets some of Jeff Bezos’s scraps from his solid gold dinner table to help support the FFM efforts and fund our own future technology improvements? It’s one click away, nothing else needed or to register. Thank you for your consideration!
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Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Rudolph
59 = Conklin
62 = Chark
49 = Cole
39 = C Johnson
25 = Shenault
08 = Conley
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Patriots 45, Chargers 0
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Not sure I can add any fresh analysis that the final score did not already make clear on this game.
A punt return TD. A blocked field goal TD. The Patriots win a game 45-0 where they passed the ball for 69 yards. This one WAS as bad as the score indicated.
The only shocking news was the Chargers did NOT fire Anthony Lynn after this game. What does a guy gotta do to get fired around here? How will Lynn top this coaching gem? Tune in next week as the Chargers host the Falcons.
It’s OK for LAC to dump Lynn now, the have my blessing -- I got my ‘under’ win total bet of ‘under’ 7.5 wins on LAC in the books. You’re free to try to win games now.
The Chargers are (3-9) and they should win at least one more game this year, but with the Chargers committing to Lynn through the end of the season…losing out from here is definitively on the table!
New England won’t die…they are now (6-6) and winners of four of their last 5 games. I don’t care if the Browns win out, win the AFC North, and go on to win the Super Bowl – Bill Belichick has to be the leader for Coach of the Year honors this season. It’s simply remarkable what he’s done minus Brady and Edelman/with Cam…especially if he gets to the playoffs somehow.
We project the Pats to go (8-8), and that won’t get them into the playoffs. Just short. They face the Rams and Bills in the next three weeks…the #2-3 best teams in the NFL. The wrong time to catch those teams needing to find three wins the next 4 games – but if anyone can do it it’s Belichick.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First things first… Use this Justin Herbert (26-53 for 209 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) bad stat line to go buy him Dynasty, if you’ve been wanting in…if the trading window is still open in your league. If he meanders to the finish line, output-wise – then we’re all over this for the Dynasty offseason.
The QBs who matter for FF 2021 and into the future…
Mahomes-Allen-Herbert-Murray
If you don’t own at least one, you’re not set for the future. I don’t want to hear about ‘I hate my RB depth’. You either have one of these 4 QBs or you’re playing fantasy from behind into the future. You should hope to have two of them for your Dynasty team, but having one is of utmost importance.
Dak and Deshaun and Russ…you’re settling short, but they’re in the next wave behind the first tier.
This QB group of four is ‘important’ in 4 points per pass TD leagues.
It is ‘extremely’ important in 6 points per pass TD leagues.
We will be discussing these four QB’s valuations and trade potentials all offseason with the FFM Dynasty Offseason content, starting in January 2021.
Who Herbert’s coach is in 2021 changes the landscape of his valuation into the future.
-- Another Chargers rookie is busting out…LB Kenneth Murray (14 tackles, 12 solo, 1.0 sack, 2.0 TFLs) put in a game here that was a glimpse into the future of a top 5 IDP linebacker for next week and ahead for many years.
This tape was terrific. Murray was planted in the middle because of all the injuries to guys otherwise – no more roaming from inside-to-outside. And when all the other LAC players seemed to be mailing it in…Murray was playing turned up to ‘10’ all game. He had his 12 solo tackles starting the 4th-quarter.
Sure, the Pats ran the ball for 165 yards, but they also ran it 43 times…for just 3.8 yards per carry. I think Anthony Lynn found his answer in the middle…but I’m sure he’ll turn back to failure Denzel Perryman if he gets the chance. If Perryman or Kyzir White are active ahead, then you can be skeptical of what Lynn will do with Murray for IDP. But in 2021, Lynn won’t be there to mess it up.
What Murray showed here was elite middle linebacker play. He was very hard to block, and sometimes he just shoved blockers away with brute force while standing almost still. You rarely see Murray getting blown backwards on a one-on-one block. He was hammering ballcarriers too…not just ‘in the neighborhood’ or gently wrapping/lassoing them to the ground – no, it was grown ass man tackles.
I think his time may have arrived. Be careful Lynn doesn’t muck it up by moving him to OLB type play in the next few weeks.
-- I thought Damien Harris (16-80-0, 1-15-0/1) was moved into a split with Sony Michel (10-35-0, 1-23-0/1) this game, just looking at the final numbers. I was hoping Michel wouldn’t even be active or play much the ROS, as a Harris holder in some places…but Michel was alive and well here.
However, watching the game – it’s still Harris as ‘the guy’, but then losing all the FF-goodness to others (Cam takes all the rushing TDs, and White takes the catches)…BUT he’s not ‘splitting’ with Michel, per se…not in this game. Michel got decent touch totals because this game became a joke and no need to run Harris 5,000 times.
I can’t trust Harris for big FF numbers because of the Cam/PPR issues, BUT I think he is going to be the 15+ carry a game guy for whatever it is worth.
Since becoming ‘the man’, Harris is averaging 71.2 rushing yards per game…a 1,139 yard 16-game season trend with 5.1 yards per carry. He’s low key one of the best RBs in the NFL right now.
We’ll be discussing his 2021+ future and dynasty valuation all offseason as well.
-- Josh Kelley (0-0-0, 2-3-0/2) was much more coveted than Damien Harris to start FF 2020, but look where we are now. Fallen behind Kalen Ballage.
A new coach headed to LAC in 2021, so a reset and rethink on his FF-valuation is coming.
-- Donald Parham (2-21-0/4) had 4 targets in this game…Hunter Henry (1-5-0/2) had two. It was probably due to the game flow, but Parham is getting a little more involved as we go…such a huge, unique target for Herbert.
He’s moving up the Dynasty Stash ranking a little bit this week on the next update.
-- The Patriots-DST is rolling, but rocky outlook to the FF-finish…at LAR, at MIA, BUF. Only the Miami game stands out as a great one. You can cross your fingers on the Rams matchup. Could be OK. It’s a huge game on national TV.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Ekeler
27 = Ballage
03 = Kelley
41 = H Henry
19 = Parham
33 = Dam Harris
22 = Michel
19 = J White
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Rams 38, Cardinals 28
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
*Re-reading this before publishing…I’m not sure my intro even makes sense, but it was a stream of consciousness thought that made sense to try to connect to, but not sure it landed. Oh, well…they can’t all be Pulitzer worthy. Trying to spice it up. You be the judge…
This game analysis depends upon the analyst’s perspective.
It’s like our current U.S. news media.
Something happens. The media member/organization reports on the event through the lens of whatever belief system they hold.
If a meteorite crashed into your house, you might see the following reports on the news...as examples to try and paint my case for how it happens in football:
*The actual event: Meteor comes out of nowhere to destroy a local citizen’s home, befuddling scientists.
Alternative reporting…
*Homeless population grows in our city, and we’ll interview the recently homeless person who lost their house due to a global warming caused space event.
*Beautiful falling star sighted in our area last night.
*Donald Trump colluded with the Russians to bomb a local man’s house.
*Joe Biden colluded with China to allow Space Aliens to protest the concept of home ownership.
*Gender neutral, racist space rock targets low-income housing area.
You get the point. We see what we want to see…whether we realize it or not. It happens with football coverage all the time.
How does this relate to the Rams-Cardinals game? Well, I’ve heard all kinds of analysis about this game…and after re-watching the game, it’s aggravating me how silly analysis is in general.
Basically, football analysis in a given week is a template: (1) Winning team is fine/mostly immune from overall criticism. (2) Losing team…everything is wrong, and things need to be changed.
The analysis of this game seems to be: Arizona is bad. Kyler Murray is too short. Rams are lucky to win because Arizona is so bad.
This simplistic analysis begins with a lot of bad precepts, like…underrating the Rams, so when Arizona loses to them it seems terrible of the Cardinals to do. Analysts then rush to a microphone or laptop to say, “See, I told you Kyler wasn’t a legit NFL QB!” This from, the same people who were gushing over him as the future great after Weeks 4-5-6 this season. If Arizona wins next week, and Kyler racks up numbers…they’ll be back on Kyler.
THEY (the football media) come into this game HATING Jared Goff. To THEM, Goff is a rube and a backup talent. When he has a bad game…”See, we told you Goff stinks…what a terrible contract…the Rams can’t win with Goff.” When Goff plays well/the Rams win, “See how Sean McVay helps (incompetent) Goff with magical play calling? Rams win despite Goff’s shortcomings!”
Nothing is ever good enough for these people. They latch onto a scouting concept early on and they never let it go, and report everything through that lens for years. They should be GUSHING over what Josh Allen did Monday night…they aren’t even hardly acknowledging it. But they’ll do 500 story angles on “Lamar Jackson is back!” because he won a game against the shitty Cowboys, while they ignore or make excuses for Goff/the Rams or Allen/the Bills winning.
I would argue the Bills are the 2nd best team in football, and the Rams are 3rd…both could beat the Chiefs…or both lose to them. They’re all top teams in the league, but THEY see KC way above them all and there’s no way Buffalo and the LA Rams could be any good with Josh Allen and Jared Goff at the helm, so the lack of reporting/enthusiasm by them effects all of us…we’re gaslighted to think we’re the crazy ones. Why, EVERYONE knows Josh Allen is just on a hot streak that will end soon… Why, EVERYONE knows Jared Goff secretly stinks… Why, EVERYONE can see how great Tua Tagovailoa is playing.
We are being lied to hourly because they are terrible at analysis and they never go back and look at all these games and do that persistent research day after day after day.
But I do.
My agenda is getting them right…seeing what others might not be seeing and exploiting that for my/your hopeful gain.
If you look at this LAR-ARI game from the perspective of the Rams as a top NFL team with (for my money) the single best defense in all the NFL – then Arizona losing is not the constitutional crisis of the universe. The fact that Arizona hung with a great Rams team most of the game, but just got beat by the better team – it’s not a negative, it’s at least neutral, if not a slight positive.
Arizona wasn’t perfect but against a really good defense/team, they moved the ball/scored points…it was a struggle, but they achieved some offensive success against this D. This game was only 17-14 Rams at the end of three quarters, with Arizona having missed a FG before half or it could have been tied.
The Rams scored first in the 4th-quarter to go up 24-14, the Cardinals came right back to 24-21 with 13+ minutes to go. The Rams started muscling the Cardinals from there and Kyler trying to rush a comeback with 4+ minutes left down 10 points, threw into danger and got picked sixed and then the game was pretty much over at 38-21…but Arizona did fly right back down the field and get it to 38-28 with 2+ minutes left. They never quit.
The Rams were the better team, but no shame for the Cardinals – the Rams are better than the Cardinals right now. Most NFL teams are not as good as the Rams. But because the football media is pro-Seattle and anti-Rams, we don’t get any good vibes about the Rams. They’re still trying to figure out how the Giants wrecked their Seahawks…and trying to ignore that the Rams smacked Seattle too just a few weeks ago.
The Rams are now (8-4), and I think they’re the best team in the NFC…but not so great they couldn’t get beat by any team on any given Sunday. Goff is a top 12-15 NFL QB, the Rams defense is the best in the league…you can win a title with that combination. We project the Rams to (11-5) and a shot at the NFC West title…but Seattle still very much in it with an easier schedule.
Arizona is now (6-6)…a team with flaws, but still possible for the playoffs. They’ve lost four of 5, and everyone is hysterical – but they’ve lost to Seattle, Miami, New England, the Rams in that span…they aren’t losing to patsies and they are not getting totally outplayed. The Cardinals are just not a great team yet, cut them a break. Their last two wins were over very good teams Buffalo (lucky) and Seattle…the Cardinals are not terrible, but they are if you tried to elevate them to NFC West winners (as many did 5-6 weeks ago…because they beat ‘holy’ Seattle Week 7. Somehow beating Seattle is like the litmus test for the football media for temporary acceptance (See: Giants this week). It’s really bizarre. Except when the Rams do it.
We see Arizona finishing (8-8) and sneaking into the playoffs, maybe. (7-9) is not off the table still.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Kyler Murray (21-39 for 173 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) Report…
If this is the worst Kyler Murray plays in a season…it’s a pretty good season. 3 TD passes against the best defense in the NFL. Sure, limited passing yards and he’s stopped running for some reason…but he’s doing fine as a passer. He is literally the only thing keeping this horrid Air Raid scheme afloat. Kyler is making plays…that’s all you can ask, especially in a game where his team, his O-Line were overmatched.
Over the last 6 games, the Rams defense has humiliated Nick Foles (0 TD/2 INT), crushed Tua’s awful debut (1 TD/ 0 INT), squashed Russell Wilson (0 TD/2 INTs)…made Tom Brady (2 TD/2 INT) look stupid, and drop kicked Nick Mullens (0 TD/1 INT)…3 TD passes/7 INTs total allowed in the prior five Rams’ games to this one – so Kyler comes in and drops 3 TD passes with a late game, forced comeback pick and we’re supposed to get hysterical about it/the loss?
I think Kyler looks fine. Flashes of greatness at times…overcoming this dreadful Air Raid – he’s just not as good as Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. That’s not a crime. He might be as good as them, but he won’t be in this offense unless personnel changes are made and the O-Line is upgraded.
Kyler is fine. The Cardinals are ‘fine’ if you see them as a .500 team. The current FF issue is three not-great matchups ahead with NYG-PHI-SF. Limits the upside some, unless he starts running heavy again.
In context, Kyler is fine.
-- Jared Goff (37-47 for 351 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) has blown up Seattle (73%, 302 yards), Tampa (76%, 376 yards), and Arizona (79%, 351 yards) in the last 4 weeks…and still everyone is like “How Sean McVay gets Goff to ever complete a pass is a miracle!”
I agree, Sean McVay is good…better for Goff than a Jeff Fisher type. No denying it, but it’s not like Goff is incompetent, as he is portrayed. The guy is a former #1 pick (and the football media would like you to forget that it was SO obvious to them that Carson Wentz should have been #1…where did those arguments disappear to, I wonder?) – Goff is talented. If he gets the Rams to the Super Bowl this season…it will be two SB trips in three seasons. That ain’t bad.
I know this …he’ll never get credit for it (if he does win a title), ever. The media has marked him, and he’ll never escape it.
Recall the note above about him blowing up SEA-TB-ARI the last 4 weeks? The one game I didn’t mention in that span…Week 12 vs. the 49ers – a defense that made him look stupid. That’s why I am pro-49ers-DST for the ROS…Sherman-Verrett back and they look really good. Getting beat by the Bills is not a crime, just like the Cards losing to the Rams here isn’t horrible.
-- Cam Akers (21-71-1, 1-22-0/1) got 21 carries and it seems Sean McVay has gone in on what he’s always wanted to – a Cam-led backfield.
Maybe.
We all thought that about Darrell Henderson (3-49-1, 2-25-0/3) several weeks ago too.
Akers had a few nice runs, but mostly a lot of 0-2 yard garbage happened…again. I think McVay wants Akers ‘to happen’, but he will switch horses mid-race if the situation warrants.
In his last five games, Akers had that wide open 61-yard run vs. the 49ers…and 53 carries for 183 yards otherwise…a sad 3.45 yards per carry. I hope McVay loses games if he tries to force this Akers thing, as it seems he’s trying…but McVay is fairly smart – he’ll switch in-game if Akers is failing.
I’d be very wary of thrusting Akers into your FF starting lineups based off this one outlier game…it might be the start of a trend, but it might just be an outlier.
-- The argument for McVay sticking with Akers, despite ‘results’ is Kliff Kingsbury is doing by continuing to force Kenyan Drake (10-49-1, 2-9-0/3) into the action despite a lack of results/juice. Drake puts the offense to sleep every time he gets a lot of carries on a drive – and then Chase Edmonds (6-28-0, 2-15-0/6) and always looks faster/provides a spark, but then disappears from the field.
There’s no end in sight of heavy Drake and limited Edmonds…so, maybe it will be heavy Akers and limited Henderson for the Rams ahead too? Whether it makes sense or not…head coaches tend to latch onto one RB, and they won’t quit ‘em no matter what.
-- All the Cardinals WRs were held in check, again…the Rams pass defense is awesome. Some receiver notes for ARI:
Dan Arnold (2-61-2/3) got a long TD early in this game, and then wasn’t a part of the offense most of the rest of the game…which is his norm. The 2 TDs were just randomly lucky, not a move towards ‘something’.
DeAndre Hopkins (8-52-1/13) got held in check by Jalen Ramsey. Hopkins has been under 55 yards in a game in four of his last 5 games…mostly playing top cover corners/good-to-great pass defenses.
Christian Kirk (1-2-0/3) is so irrelevant in this offense. The TD flurry from a few weeks ago…his prior hot streak is like the Dan Arnold game here. Just a blip.
KeeSean Johnson (4-27-0/4) is the one receiver showing a fresh spark. A season high 4 catches while playing 70% of the snaps. He’s about to become the #4 WR and Andy Isabella (2-7-0/5) is about done in Arizona. Bill Belichick should be drooling to make him his new Julian Edelman.
-- Gerald Everett (6-44-0/7) is playing more and more snaps, getting more and more purposeful touches. Since Week 7, Everett is averaging 3.8 rec. (5.2 targets), 29.0 yards, 0.17 TDs per game.
A lot of designed bubble/tunnel screens for him in this game. Last year, Tyler Higbee (4-24-1/6) blew up with more work at the end of the season. Everett is muddling along with more work of late…so, it only makes sense that there will be more Everett and less Higbee.
Maybe Sean McVay is worse at personnel than I thought…and I’ve been souring on the boy genius for two years now.
-- Troy Reeder (10 tackles, 1 PD) has started three games for the injured Micah Kizer this season. He’s averaged 12.0 total tackles and 1.0 TFLs per game in those starts. One more start Week 14 before Kizer returns…against run-heavy New England…here comes 10+ more tackles!
-- The Rams have the best defense in the NFL, so says me. Facing NE and NYJ the next two weeks is not going to hurt my argument.
-- A look at the Cardinals-DST when NOT facing a top QB (like Russ, Allen, Goff) this season…
Week 12 vs. NE = held the Pats to 20 points and 179 total yards
Week 9 vs. MIA = Gave up 31 points but 7 were defensive, another 7 set up by a turnover in the deep red zone. It was a game of errors setting up Miami, but normal circumstances the Dolphins had a hard time moving the ball.
Week 6 = Held Dallas to 10 points
Week 5 = held the Jets to 10 points
Week 2 = Held Washington to 15 points.
They have given up ‘stuff’ to good teams/QBs and squashed weaker offenses almost all season. They face Colt McCoy Week 14. You decide what category that matchup falls in…
Snap counts of Interest:
64 = Hopkins
60 = Kirk
54 = Isabella
45 = KeeSean
37 = Edmonds
29 = Drake
70 = Higbee
60 = Everett
52 = Akers
18 = DHendo
13 = M Brown
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