- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: 49ers 30, Jags 10
*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.
The 49ers were definitely the better team here, but the Jags did put up a fight with their defense but penalty calls at the wrong time, injuries to both starting CBs, a lack of offense (Trevor Lawrence is useless) and lost fumbles got the game out of reach by halftime and the Jags have no offensive firepower to even get back into any game in a deep deficit. It was a boring blowout.
The 49ers have now scrambled back to .500 (5-5) and are right in the playoff mix. The 49ers should get to 9 wins and a shot at the playoffs, but 7-8 wins or 10 wins is still in play. A huge game hosting Minnesota this week, one I think they’ll lose and then be pushing more 8-9 wins as a projection in the end.
The Jags had been playing well but crumbled here to fall to (2-8). Their schedule might allow 1-2 more wins before the finish line.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Deebo Samuel (8-79-1, 1-15-0/2) is now a running back. How could we think otherwise? 8 carries and 2 targets here?
It’s cool, and I’m down…but I want to see 5-8 targets with my 5+ carries from a WR weapon. No rush TD here and it would be a WR3-ville.
The thing is…Deebo almost had 3 TD runs in this game. Every time Deebo ran the ball the Jags acted like they’d never seen football played before…they were mesmerized. The Jags completely cutoff the ‘real’ RBs in the run game otherwise…but Deebo was the difference/MVP/unstoppable here. I don’t know why it confused the Jags. There was no trickeration. Deebo literally lined up in the backfield and took handoffs, but Jacksonville couldn’t lay a finger on him it seemed.
-- If Deebo is going to be an RB, of some note…3-5-8 carries in a game…then how do we project/value the RBs? This hurts Elijah Mitchell (DNP) if this keeps up…or if Mitch is out and Jeff Wilson (19-50-0) has to start. Does it make them more RB3s than RB2s for a weekly projection (Deebo + lack of targets)?
Let’s see if this keeps up with Deebo. The NFL trend is to abandon this Deebo/radical-type thing as soon as it starts, inexplicably -- but if it keeps up then the other 49ers RBs are gonna suffer for touches/output.
-- Deebo as an RB did spring Brandon Aiyuk (7-85-1/7) to a WR1 here. Aiyuk’s best game of the year…great catches in tight windows this game. He’s struggled with that this year, so let’s see if it keeps up – noting that this happened against the Jags, who are terrible against the pass as it is…and then they lost both starting CBs in the game. Be careful getting too far excited on this Aiyuk event but do get excited…he seems to have gotten his groove back.
-- Excitement was taken away from us with another WR…Jamal Agnew (1-2-0, 3-18-0/3) injured his leg, done for the season…and probably just cost him a career at WR. Not the injury itself, but the timing.
This 2021 Jacksonville season was a unique situation that opened a door for Agnew to get snaps and targets he would never see otherwise. Now, he’ll lose his opportunity and Jacksonville will go get other legit slot WRs. Agnew will go back to a return man but be a #4-5 WR depth option.
Sad, but true.
Note: In his absence, the Jags claimed WR/KR Jaydon Mickens off the Tampa Bay practice squad…he can be an Agnew-ish WR as well, for a team in need suddenly. Mickens is more of a Deonte Harris type than a thicker Agnew type...but all of them playmaking WRs with the ball in their hands.
-- After an inexplicable past few years of low TD counts with his nice other output, George Kittle (4-34-1/4) has scored a TD in three straight games. If Kittle can get up to 8-10 TDs in a season instead of 5-6…then he can push into the #1-2 spot among all TEs. He’s pushed Darren Waller aside of late for that #2 behind Kelce right now.
Trey Lance at QB in the future…not sure that’s the ticket to 10+ TDs for Kittle in the future.
-- Three games in a row with 2 TD passes for Jimmy G. (16-22 for 176 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT). The last time that JG did that is…well, never. It’s not normal for him. The offense is getting efficient with a nice O-Line to allow JG to throw for under 200 yards but toss smart/short TD passes.
I’m guessing this is more blip than reality ahead, but against MIN-SEA the next two weeks…maybe he keeps it going.
-- Trevor Lawrence (16-25 for 158 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 3-23-0) has not thrown a TD pass in three games, and here’s what’s scary about that…
When Zach Wilson or Justin Fields has a ZERO TD pass game…they at least have the excuse of a battered/bad O-Line and Wilson has had to work with terrible WRs (when Wilson was starting, and Moore wasn’t a thing yet). Lawrence has one of the five better O-Lines in the league and he has solid enough receiving weapons…and they are always down so there’s prevent defenses to toss against – and yet no TD passes.
The recent string of zero TD passes is more because Lawrence is one of the great scouting frauds of 2021. He was never generational.
Since Week 2, Lawrence has played 9 games and had 5 TDs/6 INTs…he’s not getting better, not at all.
Snap Counts of Interest:
423 = Marvin Jones
33 = Treadwell
29 = Shenault
12 = Tavon Austin
10 = Agnew
04 = John Brown
40 = J Wilson
24 = Sermon
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Dolphins 24, Jets 17
*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.
Watching this game, honestly, I couldn’t tell you who was the better team. I mean, Miami was supposed to be…but they looked equal to or lesser than the Jets…to me. Take that for whatever it is worth. Had the Jets not missed two field goals in the first part of this game…it might have been a different game/flow had the Jets got a lead to protect…but the Jets were behind by a score all game, catching up then falling back again.
Neither team here is all that great.
The Jets are (2-8) now, and they have a chance to steal a win or two more before the season ends…they have MIA, JAX, HOU still to go.
Miami books their 3rd win in a row to get to (4-7), and thus has some delusional/long shot playoff hopes. They have a schedule that can keep them in this. The QBs they face the rest of the season: Cam-Dimes-bye-ZWilson-Siemian-Tannehill(no Henry)-Mac J. Their final six games are all winnable. I need them to cool down to keep my Miami win total under bet to pay off. I think it will, but it will be closer than it needs to be. We project Miami with 7 wins in the end…but 8-9 wins is not out of the question.
The schedule also warrants the Miami-DST as a legit opportunity every week (except their bye) ahead.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Miami did their normal offense…baby throw offense (the BTO, now coined by me this second…patent pending). Little short, growing to be ‘unstoppable’ quick throws by Tua (27-33 for 272 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT). When Tua can’t do the BTO, when he has to stay in the pocket and let routes develop he’s a disaster, but in the BTO he’s getting pretty good.
My only unique Dolphins note here was – man, Mack Hollins (2-72-1/3) has been good, and deserves more targets/a better offense to work with. Did you know Hollins has 3 TDs in his last 5 games? He got lost in coverage here and Tua found him for a wide-open 65-yard score.
-- After this game, on Wednesday of the week leading up to Week 12, the Dolphins claimed Phillip Lindsay off waivers. You only do that if you’re not 100% confident in your lead running back – and/or you’re impressed with Lindsay (as everyone should be).
Either way, this is an opportunity for Lindsay because Myles Gaskin (23-89-0, 3-7-1/4) is arguably the worst on-purpose starting RB in the NFL. It will likely take 1-2 weeks before we see if Lindsay can home in on the job, but it’s an opportunity for sure. Reminder to self: The NFL never changes RBs they start a season with/cement as ‘their guy’.
-- I thought Joe Flacco (24-39 for 291 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) looked totally fine, in that fill-in sorta way. He looked very capable…like a better Trevor Siemian. If Zach Wilson (DNP) flops this week…I could see Flacco going back in as a starter.
-- Michael Carter (9-63-0, 1-2-0/1) will miss a few weeks. Who fills in?
Pre-Carter starting and with Carter down, the Jets most always put Tevin Coleman (3-16-0, -1-2-0/1) into a lead carry role and Ty Johnson (1-5-0, 1-8-0/1) holds down a passing game back role. So, all we can do is assume that’s what they’ll do for the next few games.
-- Elijah Moore (1-15-0, 8-141-1/11) looked fine/good, but he was left open in zone coverage a lot and Flacco was kinda checking it down to him. There was one sweet slant that turned in a 62-yard catch-and-run score. Moore looks fine, but when I saw the targets on paper -- I was thinking he was the new #1 WR…but, after watching the tape...I’m going to pause and wait another game before saying that. He’s their most talented WR, for sure.
It still seems like the Jets wanna force it to Corey Davis (3-35-0/7) and Moore is a nice side option. A side option you have to start for FF now, until he proves otherwise.
-- Two NYJ IDP notes…
1) Quincy Williams (15 tackles, 2 TFLs) FINALLY got back as the starter over awful Jarrad Davis and was great…per usual. He should be the starter again…I guess. If he is…he’s an LB1.
2) Rookie UDFA CB Isaiah Dunn (7 tackles) got his first start and looked OK. High effort. Solid performance but facing Tua isn’t a big test of one's coverage skills.
-- The Jets defense is so much better with Quincy Williams in. The NYJ D tends to hold opponents in the 20s when Williams starts/plays full and gives up 35-40+ when he’s not. They face the worst offense they’ve faced all year this week with Houston. It’s not a crazy DST long shot play for DFS.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Corey D
48 = Elijah Moore
41 = Crowder
13 = Cole
20 = Coleman
20 = Carter
20 = Ty J
55 = Waddle
38 = A Wilson
25 = Pr Wiliiams
22 = Hollins
53 = Gaskin
11 = Laird
06 = Duke J
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Texans 22, Titans 13
*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.
Not that Tennessee played a good game or is some great team (without Henry) that should never lose a game…but the Texans whooping Tennessee here was as much luck as anything else. The only way the Texans can score a TD is by charity…and the Titans gave them that here – a red zone pick turned long INT return to the goal line for a soon-after TD. A punt landing near a Titans return man and hitting his foot while he was trying to get out of the way and the Texans grabbed it, setting up goal to go, and a soon-after TD.
The Texans got all the breaks. The Titans lost their two main WRs in the game. The rains fell harder as they tried to mount a comeback. It was just a perfect setup for a flop…and the Titans flopped.
Tennessee is now (8-3), a fall from grace from being anointed the best team in football a week ago by the mainstream. Everything in football analysis is about ‘what happened last week’ and ‘how do I FEEL about it?’ Tennessee is not close to the best team in football after losing Derrick Henry. They may not even be worthy of being thought of as a .500 team without Henry. Still, the schedule is their friend and they should get to 11-12 wins the AFC South title.
The Texans jump to (2-8)…now, (2-1) in the division! This is still a bad team with no real offense and a scrappy OK defense. They will likely win another game or two.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The biggest FF news from this game was after the game, on Monday…the news that Adrian Peterson (9-40-0, 2-4-0/2) was released. I did 5+ minutes of rumor and theory on why this happened on our Video Show Tuesday, and the short version is – I think it was to clear the way for D’Onta Foreman (7-25-0, 1-15-0/1) to work as the clear, #1 lead back. Foreman is better than AP in 2021, and if Tennessee wants to get DF more reps, they know AP will throw a fit if he’s not features/#1 RB…so, best to rip the Band-Aid off now.
Now, many in the mainstream think Foreman is a nobody who played little snaps in this game…so this AP move, to them, must be for some other reason…like clearing the way for any other RB. The easy RB to reach for, the only RB to reach for that is new in the equation is – Dontrell Hilliard (7-35-0, 8-47-0/10).
You look at this box score and see Hilliard with as many carries as Foreman, and 8 catches, and a 51-15 snap count advantage, and you’d be foolish not to think this is about Dontrell Hilliard. It is, to some degree (AP out and Hilliard in as a live body), but there is no way the Titans are clearing the decks for a guy to be their RB when he has been on the practice squad most of the year and played no offensive snaps all season, until this game…and only then because Jeremy McNichols had a concussion.
When Derrick Henry went down…did you see the Titans rush to make Hilliard a part of their patchwork plan? Absolutely not…despite him being rostered on the practice squad, thuis totally aware of what he can do, the Titans instead went and got Peterson and Foreman and injected them right into the lineup…not Hilliard. But now you’re telling me Hilliard is their new, main plan RB…after one game of heavy usage out of necessity and game flow?
This game started as it always does, post-Henry…AP starting with the 3rd-down back (now Hilliard this week) sprinkled in on the passing game moments, and then Foreman coming in the next series and taking more of the bulk of work over AP…and working like their best back. That all happened per usual (through three games so far without Henry) to start this game.
However, unlike most Titans games, the Texans started to pull way ahead of Tennessee. The Titans got into a 2-minute drill before the half, in the pouring rain, and Tannehill dinked and dunked with his passing game back (Hilliard) and drove down the field. Nearly half of Hilliard’s catches in this game came in a one-minute span before the half of dinks and dunks. The rest came in the 2nd-half as Houston expanded their lead and the Titans got more desperate and started throwing all the time to try to get back into the game.
Hilliard was fine, he’s solid. He didn’t do anything amazing. He was just hard-working and present for a deficit mode event. If the Titans had gotten up by 2-3 scores right away, we may not have hardly seen Hilliard in this game.
I like Hilliard just fine. Solid pro. He’s just not the kind of back you build your run game around. Again, if he were, then he would have been promoted and playing ahead/with Peterson or Foreman weeks ago.
When McNichols returns, he will likely lose touches to Hilliard…or McNichols sends Hilliard back to special teams/the bench on offense.
We know Mike Vrabel doesn’t see McNichols as a lead back, or he would have started that way post-Henry. He didn’t.
This AP move is about Foreman…or some other RB we don’t know about coming in from outer space. And it makes sense as anyone watching could see Foreman was better than AP (AP was fine, but…). Foreman is Henry-like…as Henry-like as it gets off the street for Tennessee, and all they have to do is get through the next 4-5 games and then Henry will be getting back to practice.
Foreman is now ‘the heavy’ in the run game for what was the most run heavy team in the league with Henry. Foreman is talented and I’m so excited for him. Not a great schedule ahead, but since this FF-cost many of us $0 to sit on…it could be a massive ROI…an RB1-2 out of the clear blue sky.
-- The Texans aren’t so lucky as the Titans…they have paved the way for Rex Burkhead (18-40-0) to be their lead back. Mark Ingram…good-bye. Phillip Lindsay…see-ya! No, we want the NFL stylings of game changing RB Rex Burkhead. They coulda had Foreman all along, but he didn’t used to play for the Ravens or Patriots, so he doesn’t exist in their scouting database.
It doesn’t matter who the Texans RB is because the O-Line is so horrific that every RB they’ve tried has rolled under 2-3 yards per carry. So, why not Rex?
I have zero interest in Rex B. for my FF team.
…except, they are facing the Jets run defense Week 12…the #28 run defense in the NFL. Maybe, just maybe Rex or DJ rushes for a TD, but don’t bet heavy on it. But I’d bet on DJ…because that’s the purgatory I stick myself in when given the chance.
-- QB stats of note/of interest:
Since he’s returned from injury, Tyrod Taylor’s (14-24 for 107 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 6-28-2) has averaged: 56% Comp. Pct. and 173.5 passing yards per game, 25.5 rushing yards per game with 0 TD passes/3 INTs.
A mess.
Ryan Tannehill (35-52 for 323 yards, 1 TD/4 INTs) has been exposed without Derrick Henry. In his three starts with Henry gone: 69% Comp. Pct., 226.3 pass yards, 2.8 rushing yards per game with 3 TDs/5 INTs.
Neither really useful for non-Superflex leagues.
-- With Julio-Marcus-AJB down…where did Tannehill turn to for receiving options this game?
…besides Hilliard getting 10 targets on a mass of dump passes due to the rain, and situation…
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (7-107-0/8) saw the most WR targets. He’s just a very average WR talent. But he might be the clubhouse leader if AJB is out this week…but he’d also get swallowed up by J.C. Jackson.
Rookie Dez Fitzpatrick (3-35-1/6) came out of nowhere for targets and a TD, but consider he was a 4th-round pick who Tennessee cut quickly this summer and only brought back due to the injury crisis. He’s a mediocre WR for the NFL. Not a future star on the rise.
Anthony Firkser (5-26-0/7) saw a bunch of targets more than normal here, but again…this game was nothing like most any Titans game…and it was raining.
I don’t think anyone is a help here as the #2 WR while Julio and Marcus are out. I’d bet a penny on Westbrook-Ikhine but that’s about it. I don’t like this passing game as it is, plus it’s going up against the NE defense Week 12.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Dez Fitzpatrick
56 = Rogers
54 = Westbrook-Ikhine
42 = AJB
41 = Firkser
38 = Pruitt
51 = Hilliard
15 = Foreman
15 = AP
35 = D Johnson
27 = Rex B
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Patriots 25, Falcons 0
There's not much to say about this one. The Patriots are the better team, not a great team, just a solid one, and they just suffocated the Falcons all game. It was only 13-0 at halftime and as the 4th quarter started, but Matt Ryan threw 2 INT's in the final 5 minutes of the game to give New England a couple more field goals, and then Josh Rosen threw a pick 6 with 2 minutes left to make it 25-0.
The Patriots didn't do a whole lot here offensively. They continue to play like this is 2001, running the ball, completing short, controlled passes, and playing great defense. They are now 7-4 after winning their last 5, although when you look at the opponents it becomes less impressive. They beat 3 terrible teams during this stretch, snuck by the Chargers, and crushed the drowning Browns.
The next 4 weeks will decide their fate as they draw the Titans, Colts, and division rival Bills twice. I bet they go 1-3 during this stretch to reach 8-7, but it's possible they go 2-2 which would be huge especially if one of those wins is over the Bills. They probably need to go 3-1 in this stretch with a win or two over the Bills to win the division.
The Falcons fall to 4-6 and will likely finish with maybe 2 more wins or so. They aren't a good team and are holding on for dear life. They might not win another game if they don't get Cordarrelle Patterson back from injury soon. He is their best player by far and absolutely should be in the MVP conversation.
Fantasy Notes
--Well, Damien Harris (10-56-0, 1-9-0/1) came back from his concussion and split carries with rookie Rhamondre Stevenson (12-69-0, 1-6-0/1). I think this could be the primary gameplan moving forward because Stevenson looks good, real good. Harris is fine as well and was running with his usual hard-nosed style, but Stevenson made a few cuts here that rare few backs his size can make. He had another 30 or so yards called back on a holding penalty after he sidestepped two defenders smoothly and took off down the field. Seems like both guys are now going to be steady RB3's, but if either gets hurt again things could get interesting.
--The passing game continues to be a mess as Mac Jones (22-26 for 207 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) spreads the ball around to the open man. Jakobi Meyers (4-39-0/6) is the ever so slight lead WR, but it's not enough to matter. I don't think you can use him now as Kendrick Bourne (4-42-0/4) has closed the gap on him despite the difference in their snap counts. Jones seems to look for Bourne just a little more often when he's actually on the field.
--I know Hunter Henry (2-25-0/3) has been nice for fantasy the last several weeks, but this is what you get if he doesn't catch a TD. He's still just the Patriots' version of Mo Alie-Cox but Jones looks for him a little more often in the redzone.
--Matt Ryan (19-28 for 153 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) is on his last legs as a QB, only steps behind Big Ben, but most weeks he's going to be better than this. The Patriots pass defense has just gotten really good and they just strangled this offense.
--The receivers on this team are just not good enough to separate from man coverage, and Kyle Pitts (3-29-0/5) is getting doubled every play. It also doesn't help that for whatever reason he was on the bench for the first two plays of the game while the vaunted Lee Smith was in the game. You can't make this crap up.
The Patriots did have the very athletic Kyle Duggar on Pitts most of the game though, and most other teams don't have a guy that can match up that well with Pitts physically. I think Pitts could make a big run to finish the season. The only two games that really scare me for him are the two Buffalo games. In dynasty, continue to buy Pitts. He's going to be a legend.
--The only somewhat usable thing other than Pitts from this passing game is Russell Gage (5-49-0/8). He's an ok option to have as your WR3 or flex the rest of the schedule due to the amount of volume he's going to get. Just make sure to have another option for the Buffalo and Carolina games.
--The most interesting fantasy item from this game was the move away from Mike Davis (3-1-0, 3-20-0/4) towards Qadree Ollison (9-34-0) who was just elevated off the practice squad. Davis started the game, but Ollison came in during the 2nd quarter and provided a little bit of a spark. Atlanta tried to go back to Davis a couple of times, but it just wasn't working and they switched to Ollison for most of the rest of the game.
It's a curious move, but that's the second time now that we've seen Arthur Smith move off of Davis for a superior option. We all have our gripes with him this year, but most coaches wouldn't have ever given Patterson more touches and wouldn't have tried Ollison here as Davis floundered away. I think it's a sign this team will be better in the next year or two.
So what happens if Patterson is still out this week against Jacksonville? Not sure. Probably a split of some kind between Davis and Ollison. 50/50 would be my guess with Davis taking the 3rd down role. I think Patterson is going to be back though. He was close last week and has reportedly been practicing this week. So will Ollison be the backup for Patterson? I doubt it but maybe. The role wouldn't be worth much if so. The only way Ollison works is if Patterson is out so keep an eye on that injury report.
IDP Notes
--Kyle Van Noy (8 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD) had an absolutely massive week in IDP leagues, and almost nobody got those points because there was no real reason to have Van Noy starting except in very deep leagues. He's not going to repeat this obviously, but it was nice to see for a perpetually underrated player. Funny how he's so good for New England but didn't work out for the Dolphins. It's almost like the coaching may have played a part...
Snap Counts of Interest
44 = Kyle Pitts
22 = Lee Smith
40 = Russell Gage
37 = Tajae Sharpe
25 = Olamide Zaccheaus
26 = Mike Davis
26 = Qadree Ollison
56 = Jakobi Meyers
49 = Nelson Agholor
29 = Kendrick Bourne
33 = Jonnu Smith
32 = Hunter Henry
25 = Damien Harris
22 = Rhamondre Stevenson
17 = Brandon Bolden
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Bengals 32, Raiders 13
*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.
I thought I was going to watch some simple tape of the Bengals manhandling a falling Raiders team. Nope…that wasn’t the case. The Raiders played a much better game than I expected – led by a flying all over the place defense. It’s just that this game for the LV defense…and all the games I’m watching lately (it seems) are filled with 3rd & long to go for the offense, and the defense makes a great push/hold/pressure and gets called for some nonsense penalty, especially ROUGHING THE PASSER calls…and what was going to be a negative play created and a forced punt turns into a +15 yards gain and a fresh set of downs. It’s demoralizing…and it changes the flow of games all the time now.
I’ve resigned myself to the fact that trying to predict the outcomes of football games against the spread is madness because the referees are as big a factor as anything – you might as well just bet the underdog/take the points every game because 2-3 perfectly timed BS penalties can swing the field, the momentum, etc.
With 11+ minutes left, this game was just 13-6 Cincy in a slugfest, most of the slugging by Las Vegas…with penalties being the difference. In the final 11 minutes there were more penalties but also turnovers by Vegas to add gasoline to the fire. The Raiders played with energy/effort most all game and played well enough to win…they just didn’t, and then it got out of hand late. The score looked like a blowout/knockout, but the judge’s card would have awarded the win on style points to Las Vegas…on defense, their offense isn’t great but good enough to have won here potentially.
The Raiders fall to (5-5), losers of three straight. For the most part, under the new staff…they are playing good football. The one hiccup was Week 14 when KC blew them out. Otherwise, they are really working on defense and floundering a bit on offense…too much Josh Jacobs and not enough everything else. Las Vegas can get right back into the playoff picture with an upset win at Dallas on Thanksgiving, which I wouldn’t rule out. We see the Raiders getting to 8-9 wins with a shot at the wild card because they have good wins over other teams in the wild card hunt, except this loss here hurts. They have several more games with wild card teams to come – they got a shot but will probably fall short because of their shoddy O-Line play.
The Bengals are now (6-4), and very legit to win the AFC North…because as flawed as they are, Joe Burrow should be a top MVP candidate who is willing this team to wins. We see 9-10 wins for Cincy, and possibly Week 18 at CLE for all the AFC North marbles.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Joe Burrow (20-29 for 148 yards, 1 TDs/0 INT) had a terrible FF game/output…credit the Raiders defense attacking that Cincy O-Line, but credit the Bengals for getting a lead and just running it out to evade the Vegas pass defense that was so good. And credit Burrow who is a magician in the pocket making the subtle moves to be able to get passes off.
Burrow is going to this era’s Tom Brady-like QB…just stuck in a terrible organization.
Cincy got the benefit of penalties to help sustain drives at the right time, and they just rammed the ball at Las Vegas on the ground – Joe Mixon had 30 carries for 123 yards and 2 TDs. And it wasn’t that Cincy was just running over Vegas, it’s just Cincy had the ball a lot and kept possessing the clock.
I keep mentioning penalties…FYI, the penalty count in this game:
Cincinnati = 1 penalty for 5 yards
Las Vegas = 7 penalties for 77 yards
-- The MVP of this game? With Cincy getting stonewalled by the Raiders, but keeping drives alive due to penalty, for the first 3 quarters, the Bengals would eventually stall out and they’d shoot for long range field goals…and my man Evan McPherson (4/4 FGs, 2/3 XPs) had three ‘money’ 50+ yard field goals in the first three quarters. Those FGs were daggers to the heart of the Raiders…LV would overcome the penalties, stop the drive, and then McPherson would hit a bomb and give Cincy some breathing room.
McPherson is one of the best kicking talents in the game.
-- The Raiders offense, on the other hand…they’re getting sluggish. Too much Josh Jacobs (9-37-0, 5-24-0/7) low result plays. The Raiders have all these unique weapons…Bryan Edwards (0-0-0/1), DeSean Jackson (0-0-0/0), Kenyan Drake (5-23-0, 1-6-0/2) and they just go everything to Jacobs-Waller-Renfrow.
Waller is great but is doubled and contained most games. Jacobs-Renfrow are solid, but they can’t carry an offense to another level. It’s a shame, because this defense is playing so well…if the offense could score, the Raiders could make a push from here on in…but NFL head coaches typically stick with ‘the known’ and die with the familiar. Derek Carr (19-27 for 215 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is as guilty as anyone for the malfeasance of not using Edwards, DJax, Drake more. It never changes, so no matter how much I think they’d finally ‘get it’…it’s two years, and two coaching staffs ‘not getting it’.
Why do I think it could change next week? I’m the fool.
-- In their five games under the new head coach, the Raiders defense has actually been pretty good/better than you’d think. Their five games under Rich Bisaccia…
Week 6 = beat Denver 34-24…gave up a junk time TD with a minute left, got 4 turnovers.
Week 7 = best Philly 33-22…gave up a junk TD late, got 2 turnovers.
Week 8 = bye
Week 9 = lost to NYG 23-16, one of the NYG scores a defensive TD.
Week 10 = Blown up by KC 41-14. It was bad all the way around.
Week 11 = Lost 32-13 here but had Cincy to 16 points through three quarters and 9 of the points on three 50+ yard FGs. Held Cincy to just 288 total yards despite a 37/23 time of possession gap.
Las Vegas defense facing Dallas Week 12…if Tyron Smith isn’t ready to go, with the top WRs out, maybe LV-DST shocks a bit?
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = B Edwards
34 = Zay Jones
34 = Renfrow
16 = DJax
31 = Jacobs
15 = Drake
54 = Uzomah
37 = Sample
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Colts 41, Bills 15
*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.
I was expecting to try and dissect ‘What’s wrong with the Bills?’ here…why did they get so crushed by the inferior Colts, and this coming off the loss to the Jaguars a few weeks ago? Are the Bills done?
I rewatched this game, ready to point out things and do clever analysis of the problem…but really, after the rewatch, I don’t see a problem with Buffalo. What happened here is why you should never bet a favorite ever in the NFL. Any given week, this type of thing can happen to any good team…things such as:
(In order of when they happened in the game)
Josh Allen thought he had drawn an offsides, so the offense stumbled off the snap at first waiting for the flag, but the play wore on and the whole play was off and eventually Allen just chucked a pass downfield into traffic, and it got picked -- but no offsides (and that was the right call), so it ended up a live play and a turnover…leading to an eventual TD for Indy (and a 14-0 lead, quick).
Down 14-7, the Bills halted an Indy drive on 3rd & long…BS roughing the passer, extending the drive and keeping it away from Buffalo.
Bills get Indy in 3rd & long again, they blitz Wentz and are all over him…two guys go to make the free sack, and they quasi run into each other as Wentz crouches down and somehow totally ducks down (assuming he’ll get consumed) and escapes the easy sack and then Wentz runs for 18 yards instead, and a 1st-down…a -10 yard event + ensuing punt instead is +18 yards and the drive continues.
Colts kick a field goal to take a 17-7 lead, after all the BS the Bills are about to get the ball back with 2+ minutes until the half. If they go drive/score here, they go into halftime down just one score…which would be a miracle given the bad luck all 1st-half. Bills get the ensuing kickoff, and as the kick returner takes his first few steps, untouched, he coughs the ball up (like a wet bar of soap) right into the Colts’ hands, who return the gift down near the goal line…where Indy punches it in for a 24-7 halftime lead. What was likely going to be a one score deficit before half turns into a three-score deficit nightmare.
The Bills then drive down to get into position for a last second 1st-half field goal…and ‘doink’ off the post. No good.
In-between all that the Bills dropped 3-4 or so 3rd-down on the money conversion bullets from Allen, forcing them to punt away the ball too much…the rain killing them in their passing comeback efforts. The Indy defense didn’t stop them at all – the rain and penalties did. Tyler Bass would also miss another field goal on top of everything else.
The Bills lose to fall to (6-4), but they’re better than that record. They’re not perfect, and they could lose the division…and could lose their first playoff game whether wild card or division winner, but they’re also one of the handful of teams you can say is the ‘best in the league’ and are among the favorites for the Super Bowl too. They are going to win 11-12 games and win their division, in the end.
The Colts played solidly, but really they just took the gift Buffalo handed them. They are now (6-5) and on their way to 8-9 wins and a possible wild card. Their season may come down to Week 15 hosting NE, as key for wild card tiebreakers.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Carson Wentz (11-20 for 106 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) was not bad here, but it was rainy, cold, and the Colts got up so fast they just ran over the Bills on their way to victory. Wentz is having a very solid season, but they didn’t need him to do much here but not turn the ball over…and mission accomplished.
Week 12 vs. TB might be nice for Wentz, and then Week 13 at HOU as well. Wentz is a legit option for Week 12 for the QB needy.
-- And don’t worry about Michael Pittman (2-23-0/5) for all the same reasons above on Wentz. No issues here.
-- And don’t worry about Josh Allen (21-35 for 209 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs, 2-18-1). He’s definitely in the argument as ‘the best QB talent in the NFL right now’…the leader in the clubhouse probably. Him and Kyler…with broken (due to the O-Line issues) Mahomes trailing them.
Allen in a dome with the Saints Week 12…light ‘em up!
-- A (minor) developing situation in the Bills backfield…
Devin Singletary (3-17-0, 3-26-0/4) started and was fine, but (again) the game got out of hand early and Buffalo barely had the ball.
Zack Moss (3-5-0, 0-0-0/1) got in for a series and was a nobody.
But then the interesting part… Matt Breida (5-51-0, 1-16-0/2) came in on a 1st and 10 in the red zone in the 1st-quarter, which I thought was interesting/odd, but it was one play then out. The real intrigue came when we saw Breida as the starting RB on the 1st-drive of the 2nd-half. Breida played with effort, looked good, sprung a 28-yard run…and he just kept staying in the game because he provided a spark the other RBs haven’t been. Breida played most of the 2nd-half, when Buffalo was still trying to get back in.
When Buffalo ‘gave up’ by putting in Mitch Trubisky mid-4th-quarter, you know who was the Bills RB in the ‘give up’? Devin Singletary. Breida left with the starters. Singletary went in with the mop up crew…and Moss.
Breida is playing his way into a real role with Buffalo…maybe even a ‘lead’ role, or split role…which is RB3-4 at best with Buffalo, but it’s better than nothing.
Buffalo plays a gauntlet of tough run defenses the next 4 weeks, so it won’t mean much for any of them for FF…NO-TB-NE-CAR.
It should mean Josh Allen is going to be throwing 40-50+ times a game the next few weeks…good for all the WRs, and then maybe Breida wins as a passing down back…maybe?
-- IDP note/reminder…
When Tremaine Edmunds is out for Buffalo, A.J. Klein (6 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD) will come in and put-up numbers.
Klein has had to fill in for Edmunds three games this year. His averages in those games: 7.3 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 0.67 PDs per game.
-- The Colts-DST does not look that great to me, but credit to them…they are riding a wave of turnovers. The Colts D is #4 in the league in INTs, #1 in fumbles recovered.
Indy is #1 in the league in total turnovers (25) after grabbing 4 of them here…leaping the old #1, new #2, Buffalo Bills (24).
Turnover differential leader in the NFL: Indy +15…way ahead of #2 Buffalo +10.
-- It goes without saying Jonathan Taylor (32-185-4, 3-19-1/3) had a special game. He's playing great, but note here that Buffalo kept getting the ball back and just running it in the rain...smart...and Taylor had two times his normal carries in a game. He really had two 16 carries for 93 yard games all in one game.
The five TDs...the Colts kept getting down into scoring range and JT took the scores -- the early Colts pick almost returned for a TD but went out of bounds at the 3-yard line. The Bills fumbled kick return, scooped and scored...almost, tackled at the goal line. The TDs were somewhat of a perfect storm day you love to have from your lead RB. He had the luck of the Irish/the luck of James Conner this day.
Snap Counts of Interest:
21 = Singletary
18 = Breida
16 = Moss
51 = Doyle
24 = Granson
00 = Alie-Cox
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Browns 13, Lions 10
The NFL media and fans are beyond stupid if they think this mess of a game is on Baker Mayfield. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that man other than the fact that he is playing through some outrageous injuries trying to get this team and their ungrateful fans to the playoffs. He's going to need major surgery on his shoulder in the off-season and basically is dealing with injuries to every part of his body, and yet he's out there toughing it out, giving everything he's got for this sorry franchise and all anyone can do is cry about his 2 INT's.
“See! We told you OBJ wasn't the problem!” Give me a *&$#%! break, football media. Mayfield was on point with his throws basically all night. He had some absolute laser beams, gorgeous throws that your QB would be lucky to make. And you know why he has to make those throws? Because nobody on this team is ever open. OBJ was getting open, I'll give him that, but every time Baker threw him the damn ball he dropped it.
Cleveland is about to drive out the best QB they've had in, what, 60 years at least? And for what? These idiots deserve to sink back to the bottom of the barrel that they were stuck in before Mayfield. What's that? You don't remember that you were the laughing stock of the NFL and won like 3 games over a three year period before Mayfield? I suggest you go back and study up because that's where you're headed if you let Mayfield walk.
Ok, now that that rant is out of the way, what happened here? Why was the game so close?
It's just one of those days. Cleveland was comfortably in control 13-0 at halftime. They were moving the ball well enough and Detroit couldn't do anything on offense. They also had a missed field goal and extra point that would have made it 17-0. In the second half, the Browns kept stalling out drives because of holding penalties (it happened like 3-4 straight drives, they would be moving and then get to 3rd down which Mayfield would pick up only to have it called back for a hold). Detroit got a lucky drive after they finally figured out that De'Andre Swift is their best offensive player. He ripped off a really nice 57 yard TD to cut the Cleveland lead to 6.
On a possession soon after, Baker tried to force a throw to Jarvis Landry, but a Detroit LB got a hand on the ball which was tipped into the air for an easy interception right to the defense. Detroit kicked the field goal to make it 13-10 Cleveland, and that was the final score of the game. The Browns shut down the next Detroit drive and then ran the clock out behind Chubb and Johnson.
It wasn't a pretty win for Cleveland, but it was a gutsy, disciplined win on a day when they dealt with a lot of bad luck and their QB barely able to play.
Can they keep winning? Maybe. It's a solid team. They remind me a lot of Indy and Tennessee. Power run games and solid defenses. If Mayfield was healthy I would say yes, they could catch Baltimore and snatch the division. The remaining schedule is not easy though, and Mayfield could get knocked out at any moment with one more injury. It's not off the table that they can pull things together and get maybe 4 wins to get to 10-7 and the playoffs, but it's going to be difficult. This week against Baltimore is huge. Win that and they massively improve their chances. Lose and they are probably done.
I'm not talking about Detroit. It's obvious what they are. Untalented, badly managed, the worst team in the league by a mile.
Fantasy Notes
--Nick Chubb (22-130-0, 2-14-1/2) is the best pure RB in the league and I won't hear differently. When I say “pure” I mean the most natural runner of the ball, the best at finding a crease to plow forward for yards that don't appear to be there. What you see Jonathan Taylor doing to fantasy right now, what Derrick Henry was doing, that could be Chubb next year but only if Kareem Hunt is gone.
--You can't trust anything on the Cleveland passing game right now due to the lack of talent and Mayfield's injuries, but 2nd year WR Ja'Marcus Bradley (2-46-0/2) shockingly saw the most snaps at WR out of nowhere and might be carving out a role after he made a couple of nice grabs here. I didn't see anything special he was doing, but on a day when the passing game wasn't working, he came up with some numbers so it's possible he'll be rewarded. He looks like he could be a solid rotation guy to go along with Higgins and DPJ next year, but he's not worth stashing in dynasty yet. Let's keep an eye on him next week though because I find it awfully strange that he would suddenly lead the team in WR snaps for no reason. Of course, knowing NFL coaches, they'll completely ignore that he was the best WR on the field and will send him back to the practice squad if DPJ and Schwartz are healthy next week.
--De'Andre Swift (14-136-1) absolutely should be dominating this backfield after this game. He was ripping off big runs every other time he touched the ball, on a day where Detroit literally couldn't move the ball any other way, and yet this moronic coaching staff kept giving the ball to Jamaal Williams on 1 and 2 yard carries (7-11-0, 1.6 ypc!). It's an absolute travesty and the entire staff should be fired right now. They had a chance to win this game, and yet even after Swift gave them a chance to win by himself, they were still wasting carries on Williams.
Swift didn't even start the game! Williams did and took the first 3 carries. Eventually they shifted to mostly giving Swift the ball, but it wasn't enough, and there's no way Williams should be touching the ball at all. He's done. They ought to be giving those backup carries to Godwin Igwebuike to get him some experience and see what he's got, but nope, not a single carry here after that fantastic run last week. You can't trust this staff at all.
I was never big on Swift, but I'm a fan after this game. He was looking a little more spry early in the year, but this is the first time I've seen him look actually fast and explosive. I'm a buyer in dynasty although his coaching staff is likely to hold him back next year for some plodding, slow-ass “power” runner that they think makes the team tougher. Note: if your team hires an old-school, tough-guy head coach...run. They have no place in the modern game and are death to your fantasy teams.
--You can't start anything from the Detroit passing game while Tim Boyle (15-23 for 77 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) is the QB. It was as bad as it looks on paper. He's your typical limited backup QB. Knows the playbook, works hard, stays super late at the facilities and thus the coaches love him, but he's not a real QB. Add in that he's working with the worst collection of pass catching talent in the league, and you've got a recipe for the disaster that unfolded on the field here. Fire up the Bears defense.
--I already said it, but you can't use anything from this passing game. Maybe TJ Hockenson (6-51-0/8) since he's going to get a lot of targets and is the easiest throw for Boyle. Just don't hope for too much.
--Is there any hope for Josh Reynolds (0-0-0/3) as the top guy? Nope. Not with this boring offense and terrible QB. Reynolds is moving around fine, but he's probably more suited to be a supporting #2 guy. The good news is that he's already getting the most snaps at WR, so the staff knows they have something with him. Maybe he could be something next year, but I don't have high hopes.
IDP Notes
--You can't really use him for IDP since he doesn't get tackles because he doesn't allow catches, but I want to point out how great Denzel Ward (1 INT) is. Every time I've watched him this year he just shuts his man down. And with Greg Newsome (the 2nd best rookie corner after Eric Stokes) on the other side, they have the potential to become one of the best pass defenses in the league the next few years.
Snap Counts of Interest
55 = Ja'Marcus Bradley
53 = Rashard Higgins
48 = Jarvis Landry
48 = Austin Hooper
47 = David Njoku
31 = Harrison Bryant
42 = Nick Chubb
26 = D'Ernest Johnson
43 = Josh Reynolds
34 = Kalif Raymond
3 = Tom Kennedy
42 = TJ Hockenson
13 = Brock Wright
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Eagles 40, Saints 29
*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.
Three losses in-a-row now for the Saints…so, the media narrative is (laughably) “If only Jameis Winston was healthy!” Let them think that. This offense has been better with Trevor Siemian…so much better, but still bottom 10 in the league. But all that doesn’t matter because the Saints defense is buckling, and their offense is garbage when Alvin Kamara isn’t around…and worst of all, the Saints have dealt with the worst O-Line injuries of any NFL team in recent weeks.
If the Saints get healthy on the O-Line, and AK returns – this is a possible playoff team. The Saints are now (5-5) with two tough games coming up Weeks 12-13 with BUF and DAL. Their season may be about to end if they get swept. We think they will, and we project that they will finish with 8-9 wins and an outside looking in chance at a wild card. If they can win one of their next two, they should scramble their way into the wild card if they can get everyone back healthy for the final kick.
The Eagles (5-6) might look back on this win as the thing that got them to the wild card…and past NO to do with earning this tiebreaker. The Eagles have a much easier schedule ahead and are much healthier right now. We see the Eagles in the same projection spot as the Saints…8-9 wins in the end, and an outside shot at the wild card, but Philly, unlike New Orleans, holds many good tie-breaker wins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The reason why the Eagles won here…Jalen Hurts (13-24 for 147 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 18-69-3) is a better QB than Trevor Siemian (22-40 for 214 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs)…Hurts is also a franchise QB, the better-than Lamar Jackson style of LJax QBs (so, better than LJax, Cam, etc.).
Hurts is locked in now, the unquestioned starter/leader with an easy schedule stretch ahead – Philly will remain playoff viable the rest of the season, so rip up those Gardner Minshew lottery tickets. The Eagles, by design, are terrible on offense…but it’s just that Hurts can put this offense on his back and put-up points/win games (a la Lamar).
Hurts is a top five QB1 projection the rest of the way with no fears of the media/fans calling for his head loud enough to push Howie Roseman to make a change.
Siemian has been a solid placeholder, but the Saints have been getting down in games, and then scoring a bunch (too) late to make it close/have a chance to win even…but they never do. Siemian on purpose is not taking the Saints very far. They should change the game by going to Taysom Hill, but I think Sean Payton is dug in on proving he was right to make the call for Siemian, so he’s not going to change. For FF, it means that what the offense has been doing of late…is what they are going to do going forward – getting down early, when it counts…put up points/yards late against prevent Ds and lose games. If Payton hasn’t seen enough to realize Siemian is an issue for wins by now…then he ain’t gonna see it.
-- Since this is the way (Siemian) the Saints are going to go down with the ship on, then the targets and passing game output will continue as it has…
Marquez Callaway (1-26-1/4) will be an underutilized WR3-4 that has to score a TD to matter.
Deonte Harris (2-11-0/50 is a random WR3-4 who could break a big play to have a spike WR2 week. There is no push or move or ability by Siemian to take Deonte to the next level.
Tre’Quan Smith (5-64-0/8) is Payton’s guy, and where the targets have been going of late…so, Tre’Quan will be my top WR projection on the Saints this week, a generic WR3-4…and I can’t stand him, and don’t want him against BUF or DAL ahead, so not touching.
Nick Vannett (1-20-0/1) will be the ‘winner’ from the Adam Trautman (5-58-1/8) injury…and Trautman’s spike here was only due to a terrible Philly defense against the TE. Vannett is a TE2 who might get a TD here and there.
Mark Ingram (16-88-0, 6-25-0/8) is an RB1 with AK out…and an RB2-3 when AK comes back in to be an RB1. I think Kamara is very much in doubt for the short week game on Thanksgiving Day this week.
-- The Eagles backfield is predictable going forward. I’ll spare you my howling about the injustice of Miles Sanders (16-94-0) stepping right back in and stepping over/on Jordan Howard (10-63-0) and Boston Scott (6-16-0, 2-2-0/2) to full prominence. Just know…it is what it is. Sanders is their guy through thick and thin.
Sanders will see 20+ touches this week, I bet…with Howard hurt/out this week. Scott will play a very minor role in support. Sanders is an RB2 with high touch count, lower TDs, low targets typically (unless Philly is down, but their schedule ahead says they won’t be chasing as much, rather they be the ones chased).
-- Dallas Goedert (5-62-0/8) signed an early contract extension last week, so Tyree Jackson (0-0-0/1) becomes a nobody for the next few years…a fun ‘weapon’ they trot out every so often in the red zone, etc., on a low volume passing team.
I love the potential upside of Tyree, but for FF purposes I’ll start looking at other prospect TEs who are actually going to be desired by the staff and works in a higher functioning passing game. If Goedert gets hurt, then it’s a scramble drill into Tyree…but otherwise, he’s likely doomed for years of waste ahead.
-- Two IDP notes…
T.J. Edwards (10 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PDs) got a contract extension as well…he seems to be the new man-in-the-middle for Philly. This extension was a big statement to that fact.
It’s a risky, odd move. Edwards was OK-not-great most of this season, playing 30-50% of the snaps. He moved to 90%+ snap starter the last three games, really he’s been pushed the last four games…in which he has averaged 11.0 tackles, 0.75 TFLs, 0.75 PDs per game in those four games. It’s a nice spike, but Alex Singleton (6 tackles, 1 PD) has had big spikes in tackle counts too but has some holes in his game otherwise…so does Edwards, but Edwards is getting the commitment so he’s going to be a full starter ahead, good for IDP purposes.
Marcus Davenport (10 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 TFL) is the guy who is playing like he should get one of those early contract extension deals any day now. Davenport keeps getting better, and the price keeps going higher for his contract, I suspect.
His last 3 games: 6.3 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1.3 TFLs, 2.7 QB hits per game. And he looks great doing it. He’s a DL1 now, a high-end one for heavy sack scoring leagues.
-- The Eagles-DST is gelling a little bit…they were crushing the Saints but allowed a bunch of garbage late to make it look worse than it was. 18.8 PPG allowed by this defense the past four games. They beat up Goff-Teddy-Siemian in that stretch.
If the Eagles are getting over on bad QBs, then their schedule ahead is DST1 worthy…
Week 11 = at Dan Dimes
Week 12 = at Flacco?
Week 13 = bye
Week 14 = Heinicke
Week 15 = Dan Dimes
Week 16 = Heinicke
You can start them every week but the Week 13 bye. And the Eagles are back in the playoff hunt, so motivations should be there to the end.
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = Sanders
29 = Scott
13 = JoHo
62 = Tre’Quan
50 = Callaway
27 = Deonte
26 = Stills
47 = Ingram
10 = Tony Jones
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 DYNASTY/FANTASY GAME ANALYSIS WEEK 11: RAVENS 16, BEARS 13
What a strange game. The Ravens came in missing Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown but still managed to pull out the win thanks to the late game heroics of Tyler Huntley.
Both teams fiddled around in the first half with Baltimore managing to come away with two field goals for a 6-0 lead. The Bears missed their lone attempt.
In the second half Andy Dalton replaced Justin Fields, who left the game with a rib injury, and promptly scored a TD on his second play after Darnell Mooney took a simple bubble screen through the entire Ravens defense for a 60 yard score. 7-6 Bears.
Baltimore eventually kicked another field goal to take the lead again, and with both defenses playing well it looked like the final score would be 9-7. However, with just under two minutes to go, Dalton found Marquise Goodwin behind the Baltimore defense for another long score. They failed the 2-point attempt. 13-9 Bears.
Tyler Huntley was left with 1:48 to navigate his team down for the necessary TD. He struggled with the Bears defense all day, but on this final drive he was able to find his receivers for a couple of big plays, and the Ravens scored with 22 seconds left to take the lead 16-13. The Bears attempted a few last deep throws, but Dalton was sacked on the final play of the game.
This was a huge win for the Ravens without Lamar. Lose and they fall to 6-4 with several difficult division games left to be played. But they pulled out a close win with the backup, so all is well for another week. They were definitely the better team here but easily could have lost it multiple times. I continue to hold my position that they are a very solid 10ish win team that could take it the distance if they get hot/lucky, but they are not a Superbowl favorite.
The remaining schedule is tough and they start the deciding games for the division next week against the wounded Browns. If Lamar is back you have to think Baltimore are the huge favorites as Cleveland is falling apart at the seams. If Huntley has to go I think he could pull out the game. I'll talk more about him below. Regardless, Lamar should be back as it's a reported illness that kept him out here. A week of rest should clear up whatever the problem is.
Chicago falls to 3-7 and their playoff chances are done if that wasn't already obvious. It's not a bad team except at QB. Fix that and this is a back end playoff team possibly. Unfortunately I think they are going to be stuck with mediocrity for a while as the media is blowing smoke up their asses about Fields being a franchise QB for the next 10 years. He wasn't even the best QB on the field in this game. That would be Huntley, who I would take over Fields 10 times out of 10.
Chicago draws the Lions on Thursday, and after how I saw the Bears attack Baltimore here, I would not bank on the Lions pulling an upset, even with Dalton starting. It wasn't a Huntley problem for the Ravens. It was a physical, energized Bears defense demolishing the offensive line problem. The Bears defense might get thrashed against stronger teams, but the Lions are the worst offense in the league, and I don't see them blowing out Chicago. If you're hurting for a defense to play then this is as good a streaming option as you'll find in my opinion.
Fantasy Notes
--Based on the score I assumed Tyler Huntley (26-36 for 219 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 7-40-0) was in over his head, but after watching him I can confidently say that he looks exactly like he did in the preseason, like Lamar-lite. Huntley runs the offense well. He's accurate, knows where to go with the ball, doesn't take crazy chances, and can run around to escape pressure. His lone interception here was a complete fluke after he hit Mark Andrews in the chest on a dead run, but the ball bounced off Andrews and just hung in the air before falling right into a defender's chest.
Huntley is the absolute perfect backup for Lamar, and it's honestly hard to tell them apart at times. I'm not going out on a limb when I say Huntley is better than several starting QB's in the league, most notably Cam, Darnold, Jameis, Siemian, and Tua. If he has to start against Cleveland I think he'll do just fine and might even be a shock scorer for the week. There's no reason he couldn't have a stat line similar to Lamar, around 200 yards passing, a TD or two, and 50+ yards on the ground.
--Any Rashod Bateman (3-29-0/6) breakout may have to wait. He was just another option for Huntley here, although Lamar might be better for him because he tends to work his favorite players over and over. Huntley actually spreads the ball around more. Still don't think Bateman is breaking out on this low volume passing offense though. He's the 3rd option at best.
--Devonta Freeman (16-49-1, 6-31-0/6) is a sneaky play against a suddenly vulnerable Cleveland defense. He's looking a bit better and more spry every week. Still shouldn't be starting over Tyson, but that's neither here nor there.
--Andy Dalton (11-23 for 201 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) might not be the craziest play ever against the Lions defense, but I'd be awfully nervous after what I saw here. He was struggling, stat line be damned. Half his yards and both scores came on two broken plays, one a screen where Mooney did all the work, and the second a bomb to Goodwin who blew past Chris Westry on a double move. More than likely, Dalton won't be fantastic but he won't crap the bed either.
--David Mongtomery (14-58-0, 1-9-0/1) is back and looking as good as ever. I still want to know what he did to go from being a slug to one of the most explosive and agile RB's in the league. He's a fantastic start against the Lions this week and should be a solid guy to finish the season with despite the QB's giving him no help.
--Thank you Khalil Herbert for your services in giving this team a spark while Montgomery is out, but you are no longer needed. Be gone!
--I said it a couple weeks ago, it's just a matter of time until Darnell Mooney (5-121-1/16) breaks out. He's the number 1, 2, and 3 option for this passing game, and he's not in over his head. I just hate that he's saddled with Fields for the next several years. Note that while he had a big game, it came on a whopping 16 targets, and he only hauled in 5 of them through no fault of his own. Did I mention that these two QBs suck? They do. And it's not going to get any easier for Mooney. It's going to be up and down with him unfortunately, especially against the Cardinals and Packers the two games after the Lions.
--Don't even both with Marquise Goodwin (4-104-1/8). Half of his numbers came on the one 49 yard bomb at the end of the game. He isn't doing that again.
IDP Notes
--RC and I were both shocked to see Anthony Averett and Jimmy Smith inactive here as there was no mention of either until right before the game. RC speculated that perhaps Averett had been benched for Chris Westry (3 tackles, 2 pd), but I can't find any support for that idea. Apparently Averett came up with some kind of thigh injury very late. I'm guessing a bruise of some type. As long as it's not a quad he should be back next week.
The Ravens better hope so as Westry got absolutely toasted by Goodwin on a double move. He's an interesting athlete as a 6'4” corner with legit 4.35 speed and a 38” vert, but he's clearly still got a lot to learn about playing the position. He reminds me of Dallas's rookie Nahshon Wright, who I have been impressed with this year after being shocked by his early selection in the draft. Both guys could develop into really good corners in a year or two.
--Roquan Smith (17 tackles, 2 tfl) had another ho-hum day. That guy is a heat seeking missile at LB and has a strong argument as the best LB in the league.
--DeAndre Houston-Carson (9 tackles, 1 pd) popped back up here. He's played well since he got into the lineup full-time, although I rarely notice him during the game unless I'm specifically watching for him. He had a couple of nice, physical hits here to set the tone for the Bears secondary. Not a bad DB starter in IDP leagues, especially against teams that are run heavy.
--Robert Quinn (5 tackles, 3.5 sacks) feels like he's been in the league for a million years and somehow feels like a disappointment after how highly he was drafted, but he's been a consistent producer and one of the best players on this defense for years. Most weeks you can count on him getting 3-5 tackles and a good shot at a sack or two. He got 3.5 here to bring him up to 10 on the year.
Snap Counts of Interest
60 = Sammy Watkins
57 = Rashod Bateman
44 = Devin Duvernay
47 = Devonta Freeman
30 = Latavius Murray
56 = David Montgomery
7 = Khalil Herbert
54 = Darnell Mooney
42 = Marquise Goodwin
37 = Damiere Byrd
53 = Cole Kmet
19 = Jesse James
12 = Jimmy Graham
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Chiefs 19, Cowboys 9
*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.
I had to laugh at the outcome of this game. All Sunday, on all the Fantasy and general football shows I heard bits and pieces of analysts crowing about how Vegas had this projected as the high scoring game of the week and how it would be so good for Fantasy and viewing. Well, it wasn’t the top scoring game of the week…it was the 3rd-lowest. Tim Boyle vs. wounded Baker in the cold and rain was slightly lower scoring than this one – that lets you know how bad this game was.
What happened? I’ll address it in the first player note below.
The Chiefs won to go to (7-4), and everything seems right with the football world now that the mainstream unanimous pick has won four in-a-row and is in 1st-place in the AFC West. They barely beat the Giants Week 8. They barely beat the horrible Jordan Love debut Week 9. They blew out LV Week 10. They looked terrible here in winning/surviving Dallas. Three of their last four, KC was not well.
This KC team is not fixed…it’s pretty mediocre still. Fortunately, the schedule is their friend ahead and they should finish with 11 wins and probably hold off the Chargers for the AFC title.
The Cowboys laid their second egg in the last three games…the Week 10 Falcons humiliation distracting us from their issues. It’s not that Dallas is bad, it’s several key injuries pushing the issue – Tyron Smith out the last three weeks is massive. Amari out here. Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory have been out for weeks and will gone 3-4 more weeks. The Cowboys are now (7-3) but losing steam and losing players and allowing Philly and Washington to get back into the NFC East discussion suddenly. Dallas should win 10-11 games and hold off the Eagles for the NFC East, but if they lose to Vegas on Thanksgiving – then Dallas is in a lot of trouble.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The reason both of these teams look so bad now and the scoring was so low here, is simple…they’re missing key O-Lineman and thus their ace, franchise QBs have less time in the pocket than ever before. QBs are propped up by great lines and QBs can also be brought low by them, when they’re poor…and that’s happening here.
When I was fast-forwarding a section of this game looking for a certain play to rewatch, I was essentially watching the condensed version of this game (no huddles/commercials, etc.), at warp speed, and something struck me during it and so I took a moment to watch the whole game on fast-forward to test my instincts…and my instincts were right, I think. Watching it high-speed, it was like a keystone cops event. Take away the announcers and watching the receivers or ballcarriers and just looking at the QBs in the pocket, rapidly, showed both QBs under constant pressure (mild or heavy) and sliding from trouble, or full-scale scrambling from trouble every other pass attempt. Rare did they ever take their drop back, plant their feet and fire cleanly.
Three outcomes happened over and over in this game on pass attempts…
1) QBs under duress, moving…shifting…scrambling constantly -- thus 0 TDs/3 INTs combined for two elite QBs. 8.0 sacks, 15 QB hits combined on the two QBs.
2) QBs either had some time or they scrambled into a throw to an open receiver who dropped it. I’m not playing this up…several key drops in this game could’ve brough Dallas into it or helped KC put it away.
3) Solid completed passes when the QB had a moment to breathe.
More of #1 and #2 happened than #3, above.
There’s nothing wrong with either QB. There’s everything wrong with their O-Lines right now, and their non #1 WRs.
CeeDee Lamb (3-14-0/4) is not a real #1 WR. With Amari out, and Dak trying to force things…Lamb never responds. He’s a great receiver when Amari-Gallup-Schultz are getting attention and Lamb breaks wide open. He’s a highly overrated WR as a technician receiver. But, like Jaylon Smith, we’ll be told how great he is for a couple more years, and Dallas will sign him to a massive contract extension when his time comes.
Lamb had no presence here and left halfway through with a concussion…and is likely out for Week 12, which may be doing Dak a favor.
Dak Prescott (28-43 for 216 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) needs Tyron Smith back more than CeeDee Lamb…and if he doesn’t get him back, then he’ll continue to be more QB2 not a QB1.
Patrick Mahomes (23-37 for 260 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) either gets some OLs back healthy or they change their blocking scheme – or he’s going to be a back end QB1. If they do get this fixed…the #1 QB1 is his destination. He looks fine, he just has less time than ever and he’s forcing/hurrying things to really crappy WRs outside of Tyreek and Kelce.
With Mahomes, if you own him, all you can do is keep running him out there and hoping for the turn in the blocking or a weak pass rush team he faces. Mahomes is a ride or die, and we may die on it this season.
-- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (12-63-1, 2-13-0/2) goes right from IR to main starter/toucher of the ball in the KC backfield. I had fears that Darrel Williams (5-15-0, 1-11-0/3) has shown enough to pull into a 50-50 hot hand situation, but I’m the fool.
The NFL sticks by their designated RB no matter what inconvenient truths hit them. Only injury forces coaches to change plans…but they’ll go right back to the original plan the second they can…like a dog to its own vomit.
-- …that’s why no matter how ineffective Ezekiel Elliott (9-32-0, 6-36-0/6) gets at times (five straight games under 70 yards rushing), and no matter how effective Tony Pollard (7-50-0, 2-20-0/2) is…Zeke will always be the lead if they can hobble him out there, and Pollard serves as a relief back not a weapon back.
They could turn Pollard into a Deebo-like ‘weapon’ but they won’t. Hasn’t even crossed their minds.
-- With Amari out, Michael Gallup (5-44-0/10) looked healthy and quick, but he does not have a great working connection with Dak, for whatever reason. This should’ve been a time for Gallup to rise up (Amari out, then Lamb out) but nope.
Dalton Schultz (6-53-0/8) has a much better relationship with Dak. He’s a PPR TE1…just a boring one. I like his PPR targeting, and he was scoring TDs early on to go-with…but that’s dried up with his passing game lately. Week 12 with no Lamb-Amari should be a good thing for Schultz?
Even if Tyron Smith is out Week 12, Vegas is the team that allowed KC to go off on them during the recent Chiefs offensive malaise. Schultz-Gallup could be in a good spot.
-- We have to credit the KC-DST here for giving Dak fits, but with Tyron Smith Dallas made their job much easier. I mean, Chris Jones had 3.5 sacks in this game…he had 3.0 sacks total in his prior 8 games this season.
The Chiefs-DST has held four of their last 5 opponents to 17 points or less after allowing 29 or more in every one of the first five games of the season.
A bye Week 12, and then two solid home game matchups for the suddenly hot KC-DST Weeks 13-14…DEN and LV. Two of the weaker O-Lines in the NFL. We have Denver graded as the single worst pass blocking O-Line in the NFL this season.
-- A recent KC defensive change the past two games…rookie ILB Nick Bolton (4 tackles, 1 TFL), who was racking up major tackle counts for a stretch, is now no longer starting and only playing 30% or so of the snaps in games. His lack of pass cover ability is hurting his cause. A downward turn for IDP output.
-- Credit the Dallas-DST as well, for the KC/Mahomes issues. The Chiefs only scored 3 points in the 2nd-half as the defense tried to keep Dallas in it – just the offense couldn’t come through.
The fact that Dallas is being a menace on defense missing their best true pass rushers (Lawrence, Gregory) is a good sign for when they get those guys back, this might be a great DST play Weeks 15-16 (the projected returns of those two players) at NYG and hosting Washington.
Micah Parsons (4 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 QB hits) has all but wrapped up the DPOY award, as Chris at Bet The Close podcast was predicting as one of his major bet for him in the preseason. Hope some of you were able to legally cash in on that guidance.
You might could use the Dallas-DST for the next five weeks, if you had to. The five QBs they are facing ahead: Carr-Siemian-Heinicke-DanJones-Heinicke.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Tyreek
40 = Pringle
29 = Gordon
28 = DeM Robinson
12 = Hardman
36 = D Williams
32 = CEH
63 = Gallup
42 = Noah Brown
42 = C Wilson
36 = Lamb
46 = Zeke
22 = Pollard
