R.C. Fischer

FFM

04 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Packers 36, Rams 28

I’m not sure that I’m processing this game properly. The Packers won…they pretty much led the whole game. The Packers looked like the superior team, but then the Rams were just hanging around in this game constantly. The Rams gave the Packers 3 turnovers, and they were key…and yet the Packers never really put this game away. Again, my eyes were very much ‘the Packers were better’…but I may be wishing losses on the Rams so hard that I had green- and gold-colored glasses on for the rewatch/study.

40-to-20 minute time of possession Packers.

3-to-1 turnover edge for the Packers.

38% on 3rd/4th-downs Packers, 27% Rams

399-to-353 total yards for the Packers.

4-to-3 Penalties called against…Pack with the 3.

21-to-15 first downs, Packers.

Everything favored the Packers, but it was still a game, kinda, Rams chasing late into the 4th-quarter.

In the end, the Rams lose…and that makes my heart happy because I’m nauseous of the public make out session Menage a trois 2021 between McVay, Stafford, and the ‘likes to watch’ football media. Then adding OBJ into this is such a ridiculous, clueless move – I hope the Rams choke on all of it, if not for anything more than the way McVay privately and publicly treated Jared Goff.

In their last three games, the Lions have more wins than the Rams…a half a win/tie.

The Rams have lost three-in-a-row to fall to (7-4). I pray to the football gods to somehow not let the Rams into the playoffs. I just want blabbermouth McVay to feel the pain of being treated like his ___ don’t stink. He can take his fake Chunky Soup eating ass back down to Cabo this winter and mud wrestle Kyle Shanahan to be the one to acquire the services of Aaron Rodgers. We project the Rams with 9-10 wins and a likely wild card, sadly.

Green Bay jumps to (9-3), and they have the inside track at an NFC #1 seed (already beating Arizona). They are set up to run the table from here with a favorable schedule but will probably stumble on one of them. 13 wins minimum (unless Rodgers goes down).

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Well, the Matt Stafford (21-38 for 302 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) for MVP bandwagon broke off a tire, veered off into a convenient store gas pump, and ignited upon impact…over the past three games. 5 TDs/5 INTs, three pick-sixes, three losses.

I shouldn’t paint a picture of such despair…because the Rams will go out and beat the Jags this week, and the media’s favorite son QB (besides Lamar) will be declared ‘all fixed’ and thus Stafford is still a top MVP candidate.

Stafford’s new downfall is OBJ (5-81-1/10)…you knew he was gonna force it to him, and you knew OBJ would drop passes, not finish routes, never catch the ball in traffic, and generally not be on the same page as Stafford because they’re just now playing together – but Stafford and McVay…McStafford…are so smart that they took the sucker’s bet and dove right in heavy with OBJ and problems will ensue.

The Browns were never better then when OBJ was out, and never worse when OBJ was in…but the Rams are smarter than everyone and Sean McVay is trying to con me that bad canned soup is a healthy meal. So, he will show you who is smart at football.

I don’t know how long it will take before the Rams back down on the OBJ hype/targeting, but it’s not yet.

And for some reason, defenses are double teaming him which is an even bigger travesty…but even worse is Stafford trying to force into a double team. OBJ can’t handle no-team, no-player coverage. He’s not going to be a star with double teams.

OBJ got loose for a bomb TD when this game was about out of hand, and that kinda pulled the Rams back into the game for a moment. Nothing special on the play, but Stafford put on him for the score. This will keep them joined together for at least 2-3 more weeks.

 -- Two things about Darrell Henderson (16-55-0, 4-18-1/4)…

1) He looks like he’s stuck in mud as a runner now. He’s not a 4.3s runner, as his Pro Day made us all think. He may be hurt/have a secret injury holding him back but he looks like he’d rather be doing 100 other things than carrying a football…watching this tape. Very uninspired, sluggish running.

I think Henderson is starting to bring a Sony Michel (3-14-0, 1-11-0/1) split or takeover into view, if he doesn’t step it up. Not that Michel looks any more electric…but McVay has to be panicking off this three-game slide…willing to mix things up if a hot hand appears.

2) DH is banged up from the game…thigh injury. The door may really open for a Michel takeover if he gets a full starting shot Week 13 and does well. Going to be hard to dismiss him for the bad tape Henderson is putting up.

 -- Aaron Jones (10-23-0, 0-0-0/1) looked fine/healed here. A semi-surprising active but he didn’t do much. The Rams seemed committed to stopping the run, which they did…great…Aaron Rodgers only put 36 points on you in a loss anyway, but you didn’t stop being bad against the run for a game, so mission accomplished…I guess. Nice!!

 -- I usually shrug off Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4-50-0/9) TD/blip weeks, because they usually happen as a blip and then there is no follow up.

Week 11, 100+ yards and a TD and everyone piling back in.

Week 12/this game, MVS didn’t light up the FF stat sheet here for a follow-up, which is typical…BUT…this time might be different. He almost had a TD (Rodgers overthrow)…which would have been a nice follow up from last week because the last two games: 9 targets this game, 10 targets the game prior.

MVS nearly had a TD in this game and one other long play shot…Rodgers’ fault, not MVS. And if they had connected on one of the near-misses, there is NO WAY anyone would have dropped him for FF, and he’d be in starting lineups next week/Week 14. One slight overthrow has changed the MVS narrative.

What I’ve seen of the MVS targeting -- is an improved more purposed targeting with an opponent’s emphasis on Davante Adams to give MVS lesser coverage. I am getting all-in fever on MVS, for the price, to try and ride this wave that could crash but this wave is nice right now…especially where I’ve lost Deebo for a while.

If you can snatch MVS for a song during this bye week and a meh Week 12…I’d do it. A smart add for your title runs or trying to hustle into the playoffs.

Heck, he’s on waivers in some redrafts – the bye week and injuries forcing him to get coughed up for a roster space, and he is not in view of the ‘by scoring’ Week 13 rank because he’s on a bye…so, do a search for him if you want. He’s a WR2 potential lethal add for the stretch run…a homerun hitter.

I like the MVS target and general on-tape look better than this Randall Cobb (4-93-1/5) moment.

 -- Jalen Ramsey (6 tackles) was barely covering Davante Adams in this game, which is insane. The Packers would get near the goal line and Adams would be lined up on one side/outside and Ramsey would be at linebacker on the other side. Next end zone play, Adams would switch to the otherwise…Ramsey would switch to the opposite side.

I cannot believe football analysts are still talking about Ramsey shutting down ___WR in a matchup. It is not true in 2021.

Here’s all you need to know about Jalen Ramsey 2021, I’ll represent it in a two-man play that I’ve penned…

McVay: Big game this week, Jalen. We’re facing the great Davante Adams. You know how much Rodgers loves to throw it to him. I’m gonna need you to shut him down this week!

Ramsey: I’m an outside linebacker.

McVay: I know you’ve worked there a lot this season…but this game we really need you to take away Davante for our best shot to win this huge game.

Ramsey: I’m an outside linebacker.

McVay: I know we’ve let you play there, and you’ve been good…but you’re the best cover corner in the game and we’re facing the top WR in football. We traded a ton for you and pay you a lot of money to be that stud…we kinda need you on Davante.

Ramsey: I’m an outside linebacker.

McVay: Could I tempt you with some Chunky soup?

Ramsey: I’m an outside linebacker.

McVay: OK, no problem…I’m going to go back to the office and make out with Matt Stafford some more. Check ya later. Hopefully, we don’t lose to the Packers as Adams catches 8 passes for 104 yards on 9 targets against us.

Ramsey: I’m an outside linebacker.

-end scene-

 -- Rasul Douglas (6 tackles, 1 INT TD) is more of a shutdown corner in 2021 than Jalen Ramsey is. Douglas has been fantastic this year. A Pro Bowl level year.

Just so you know how great NFL head coaches and D-Cs are at evaluating talent they possess, here’s Douglas’s NFL journey so far:

OCT 7 2021 = Signed to the active roster by Green Bay

SEP 2 2021 = Signed to the practice squad by Arizona

AUG 30 2021 = Released by Houston

AUG 24 2021 = Signed a contract with Houston

AUG 23 2021 = Released by Las Vegas

APR 19 2021 = Signed a 1 year $990,000 contract with Las Vegas

SEP 6 2020 = Claimed off waivers by Carolina

SEP 5 2020 = Waived by Philadelphia

MAY 11 2017 = Signed a 4 year $3.17 million contract with Philadelphia (PHI)

Snap Counts of Interest:

42 = Dillon

40 = A Jones

35 = Deguara

33 = M Lewis

20 = Dafney

50 = DHenderson

12 = Michel

62 = Kupp

61 = Van J

61 = OBJ

R.C. Fischer

FFM

03 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Dolphins 33, Panthers 10

Wow, talk about a team playing with little-to-no energy… What is Matt Rhule doing? I thought he was a rally-the-troops kinda head man? It may be that his schtick works better with young people in college. I’m not just taking potshots while he’s down. I bet he’s thinking that too…a lot of college-to-pro head coaches fight that. They get bored in college, to a degree…at the same time the media is hyping them up and billionaires are flying them in on private jets to wine and dine them and offer him millions – it’s all pretty alluring. It’s wonderful being ‘pursued’.

If you’re smart, as a an in-demand college head coach, you leave college for a spell…when you want to change out of your current gig/school, and you take a five-year monster deal to go to the pros…realizing you’ll likely be fired by year 3-4, but you’ll be paid handsomely to go away, and then you can go instantly from failed pro coach to become the hottest free agent coach going back to the college ranks…your ego getting massaged all over again as you abandon the criticism of the pros to go back the warm embrace of the college paying you to come over. I don’t fault the coaches for it. I’d like to ride that train.

One of the stops that his train makes is – being hated by the media at some point in your pro career, and so will the fans hate you for not going undefeated every week, month, season…and these coaches who are always the belle of the ball have not faced that, ever, in their meteoric careers. Rhule has walked on water coaching in college.

I imagine Rhule is thinking he’ll give it one more shot in 2022, not wanting to be a quitter, per se…take 2023 off, potentially, take a breather, then sign a mega-deal in 2024. Which means there will be no long-term vision for the Panthers…it will be all about 2022 for Rhule. All-in, one hail mary flailing away shot.

Rhule has done this to himself – terrible QB choices/plans/concepts since he walked into the building. One of the worst O-Lines in the league (we have internally graded it as one of the three worst pass blocking units in 2021). A big contract to a small running back. A big contract extension to mediocre Robby Anderson.

Rhule has done about everything wrong a head coach could do/advise to do/signed off to do, personnel-wise, in his first two seasons. Even his smart deals for CBs C.J. Henderson and Stephon Gillmore – they’ve had little impact, and the hidden kicker about those CB deals is -- he cut corner Rasul Douglas prior to all this to make room for his CB collection. Douglas is currently playing all-pro ball for Green Bay right now.

Rhule is on the ropes, and his team played in this game like they’ve all moved on. Rhule seems to have no impact with his players. At least not an impact befitting him as one of the highest paid coaches in the league. Egotistical (with good reason) NFL head coaches who are used to nothing but fawn fests from the media and the fans (from their college coaching days)…they won’t suffer this well. Rhule has shown no NFL talent assessment ability to solve his problem…his roster is only getting worse. The outlook here is grave…but Rhule will get paid a lot to leave, eventually, and then get a monster contract from about any big college that has an opening. He’ll be fine. Panthers fans will be picking up the pieces for years trying to fix this mess. Rhule probably would figure things out and be better if he hangs around for 7-10 years but likely he bolts in 2022-2023 and just leaves the kitchen a mess for the next occupants to clean up.

This game…

The Panthers gave up 11 QB hits, 5 sacks, 7 TFLs…completed 10-of-31 passes and had so many drops I stopped counting. This was one of the worst performances by a fairly talented NFL team of 2021. It’s only getting worse, not better, with Rhule. Miami wasn’t great as much as Carolina tanked.

Carolina is (5-7) and likely on their way to 6 wins, 7 wins tops. Week 14 v. ATL is a battle of two of the worst teams in the NFL. Why is it when Tom Brady plays in a division, the other three teams in that division become the 3 worst teams in football?

Miami didn’t do anything special besides play sound football but more just let Carolina implode. Miami has had the good fortune of playing HOU, NYJ, CAR in their 4-game win streak. They have NYG and NYJ next. They’re trying to kill my win total ‘under’ bet. They are (5-7) and I think they hit 7 wins tops and stay ‘under’…I pray. Miami is getting by on an easy schedule more than anything.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- It’s 2021…

Last week, I won games with D’Onta Foreman and Cordarrelle Patterson leading the way.

I had to seriously consider Laquon Treadwell off waivers to use this week in deep roster leagues.

The consensus top 5 redraft picks for 2021 are all gone and/or hurt and/or useless and/or major disappointments as we sit in Week 13.

It’s been a bizarre season…which is why Fantasy Football is so engaging, so fluid.

So, when I slip in this following comment it should come as no surprise in the UpsideDownWorld of Fantasy 2021: I’m really enjoying Tua Tagovailoa’s (27-31 for 230 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) work right now.

…I’m enjoying watching it. I don’t want it for my FF teams. I don’t want it long term in Dynasty. But I am fascinated by what’s happening with Tua. He’s running an offense I’ve never really seen before. It’s like a combination of the West Coast Offense on an overdose of amphetamines mixed with Tua as Penny Hardaway distributing passes, dropping dimes to all the right players quickly, efficiently. https://youtu.be/GFACsK9lQ68

Tua is virtually unstoppable in games of late. He throws passes in a blink…all within 0-5 yards of the line of scrimmage usually. And when the defense tries to guess who he’s throwing to, he quick changes to another option. I have never seen an offense like this and I’m not sure it is by design, more it’s what Tua can do, he’s limited otherwise…he’s taken his limitations and runaway from them, instead playing to what he is good at, and it’s working.

The last two games, Tua has completed 54-of-64 passes (84.4%)...above 80%+ both games. He’s at 70.5% Comp. Pct. overall for the season.

Honestly, it’s a joy to watch…it’s refreshing. It’s different. I’m not sure it will last because good+ defenses are not fooled, but bad defenses appear to have no answer right now.

Tua splits 2021:

46-of-83 (55.4%), 1 TD/2 INTs = Tua v. BUF 2x, NE, BAL

119-of-151 (78.8%), 9 TDs/4 INTs = Tua v. JAX, ATL, NYJ, CAR

The Giants defense will be a big test for him Week 13, because Tua is getting slicker and slicker in this offense, but the Giants mimic more of the Bills defense and then some. If Tua blows through NYG, then I’m going to believe this Miami team could be headed to the playoffs.

Only one QB has a lower depth of target/intended air yards per pass attempt than Tua, and that’s Jared Goff. For everyone who thinks they’re super smart quoting air yard targets for QBs and WRs as mic drop debate enders or thinking you;ve found FF scouting gold, (a) you’re wasting your time thinking it is some kind of talent metrics, it isn’t, and (b) Tua is breaking the mold of what we think QB play, and downfield throwing must be. He’s literally slicing NFL defenses right now with the ‘death by a thousand paper cuts’ offense, or my trademarked ‘BTO’ (Baby Throw Offense). They know it’s coming, and they can’t seem to stop it…it’s simplicity is it’s complication and Tua is running it like a robot magician.

Most NFL teams would keep forcing Tua to play ‘real QB’ and take deep drops and throw the passes the playbook says. Credit Miami, they’ve ditched that…or Tua just does what he wants…and they’re playing ‘their own way’.

The NFL might figure this out quickly and then Tua is doomed because he can’t play any other style, but baby it is working now. You can’t target him with your DST for FF because he’s getting rid of the ball so fast, so efficient and quick you can’t sack him or get picks off him like you used to.

 -- On the other side of the field, was the opposite of Tua…heavily sacked, typical drop back passing with bad drop back passers. The Panthers QBs combined for 32.2% completed passes in this game. Cam Newton (5-21 for 92 yards, 0 TDs/2 INT) was benched and P.J. Walker (5-10 for 87 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) came in for garbage time.

Is there a QB controversy? I dunno. Your choices between these two QBs is death by being thrown into a pit of Cobras or death by being thrown into a Lion’s Den. These two QBs are awful, but we also have to acknowledge how bad the Carolina O-Line is and how awful their WRs are. Cam was under constant assault just trying to get passes off.

Matt Rhule will jet off to a big college gig in a year and take all his guaranteed money with him…while he ruined O-C Joe Brady’s career. The answer to whether it was Ed Orgeron or Joe Brady who made LSU in their title season…the answer is Joe Burrow.

You no longer blindly target Tua/Miami with your DST…but you DEFINITELY target Carolina’s offense.

 -- Making Carolina’s offensive outlook worse is the loss of Christian McCaffrey (10-35-0, 0-0-0/1). Again, Matt Rhule decides to build everything around one smaller RB and does nothing to ensure he has a great Plan B running back that’s similar behind him. That’s a Matt Rhule problem/mistake. No different than Mike Vrabel having Jeremy McNichols as his #2 RB behind Derrick Henry. How could people be so stupid with so much on the line? But NFL teams/head coaches are constantly terrible at planning and pre-planning and scouting.

Chuba Hubbard (2-6-0, 0-0-0/1) will get the push with CMC out because Matt Rhule’s wife was the lead scout on that one. However, he’s been so ‘meh’ that Ameer Abdullah (2-4-0, 2-20-0/6) is getting in more and more, and he might be the real answer for FF…with both being not much of an answer.

Carolina Week 14 could roll out a starting offense led by P.J. Walker and Chuba Hubbard. Good luck with that.

 -- Chuba Hubbard is so nothing that he makes me excited about Myles Gaskin (16-49-2, 2-3-0/2) by comparison, and I can’t stand Gaskin (as a purposeful starter while so many more talented guys are backups on other teams…can you process A.J. Dillon is a backup and Myles Gaskin is a feature? I can’t).

Phillip Lindsay (12-42-0, 0-0-0/0) is instantly better than Gaskin, one week into his arrival…but there is NO way Brian Flores (or any NFL head coach, except Bill Belichick) will change his RB rotation settled on in August/June (unless injury forces it).

Lindsay got good touches here, but most of it later with the game well in hand.

 -- You noticed what Durham Smythe (5-32-0/5, 2-3-0) has been doing lately?

Back-to-back games with 5 targets, 4 and 5 catches in the two games…oh, and he had two running plays this game? I wish the Giants were as creative with Evan Engram as the Dolphins are with non-athlete Durham Smythe, who sounds like the millionaire villain in a Lifetime movie made for TV.

Check this out, this might blow your mind (in a minor way)…

You know how I was saying Tua was great against bad defenses? It was four games with JAX, ATL (then Tua got hurt/finger) Weeks 6-7, and then the past two weeks. In those 4 isolated games…

4.3 rec. (5.0 targets), 41.3 yards, 0.0 TDs = Smythe

The past two games:

4.0 rec. (4.5 targets), 33.5 yards, 0.0 TDs = Gesicki

4.5 rec. (5.0 targets), 34.5 yards, 0.0 TDs = Smythe

Things are shifting, without warning, from Gesicki to Smythe. Why? I have no idea, but don’t question Tua’s distribution right now.

 - Jaylen Waddle (9-137-1/10) is PERFECT for the BTO offense. He’s so quick, he gets the ball in his hands and just goes. The offense you’d like to see for Tyreek Hill…Miami is running it with Jaylen Waddle (and Durham Smythe).

Since Week 6, Waddle is the #6 PPR PPG WR in FF.

As long as Tua isn’t getting figured out, this will continue to PPR-prosper.

 -- Speaking of Miami rookies starting to contribute…EDGE Jaelen Phillips (4 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 PD, 4 QB hits) had a whale of a game. Not sure how much was him and how much was the Panthers lack of blocking or caring. But Phillips is up to 6.5 sacks for the season…not bad for a rookie. Better than Chase Young is producing in the NFL on a per game basis in the NFL.

Phillips and Andrew Van Ginkel (2 tackles, 4 QB hits) had several ‘meet you at the QB’ events this game. 8 QB hits between them. Van Ginkel has 17 QB hits this season. Chase Young has 16 QB hits in his two NFL seasons.

Miami-DST vs. NYG Week 13…yep.

Miami-DST vs. NYJ Week 15…yep.

Miami-DST vs. NO Week 16…maybe.

Miami-DST vs. TEN Week 17…probably.

Panthers-DST the rest of the season? Week 14 v. ATL and that’s it.

Snap Counts of Interest:

66 = Smythe

59 = Gesicki

24 = H Long

55 = Waddle

35 = A Wilson

19 = M Hollins

27 = Abdullah

20 = McCaffrey

11 = Hubbard

Ross Jacobs

FFM

03 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Ravens 16, Browns 10 

This was a sloppy, ugly affair between two decent but flawed teams. The Ravens won despite Lamar Jackson's 4 INT's and they are somehow now the #1 seed in the AFC.

I'll skip over all the gory details because it's just not worth it. It seemed like every other drive ended in a turnover, and every time you thought one team might get a little momentum off of a fumble or interception on defense, the offense would turn around and give it right back.

If the Browns could muster any kind of passing game they would have won going away here, but Baltimore stacked the line to stop Chubb and Hunt, daring Cleveland to pass the ball which they couldn't.

Of course, all the media can talk about all week is how it's Baker's fault and he needs to leave Cleveland. Anyone that believes that is either a sucker, blind, or an idiot. Baker is playing through countless injuries, is under pressure nearly every drop back, his receivers can't get any separation and when they do they drop the ball, and yet he's still trying to will his team to wins. If they didn't have Baker this team would have 2-3 wins max. Baker is the only thing holding them together right now.

I hope Cleveland runs him off. I really do. They don't deserve him. This team has been utter garbage for the past 20 years ever since they let some guy named Belichick walk, and they are headed right back to the trash heap if they let Mayfield go. Cleveland, you deserve all the pain you're about to endure. I hope you enjoy picking in the top 5 of every draft again.

A win here would have given the Browns new life in the race for the division, but this loss likely prevents them from pulling off the title. They'll struggle on for a few weeks and might possibly sneak into the playoffs, but this team just doesn't have enough juice to take it the distance unless something drastic changes. Their remaining schedule is tough, and they are likely to finish with either 8 or 9 wins max.

Baltimore is somehow 8-3 now, but they have to be the worst 8-3 team I've ever seen. This won't last. It's an ok team, but they do not have the firepower on either side of the ball to win 3 straight games in the playoffs against better teams. This makes two straight games where they've just barely squeaked by two average to poor teams in the Bears and the Browns by a combined 9 points and only scoring 16 each game themselves.

The Ravens still have to go through the Steelers twice, the Browns again, the Packers, Rams, and Bengals. Even though the Steelers are dying and the Browns aren't great, those games should still be competitive, and the Ravens luck is liable to run out at any time. I think they go 2-4 or 3-3 at best over the final six games and finish at either 10 or 11 wins with maybe the 3rd seed in the AFC. I don't believe they are even the 4th or 5th best actual team in the AFC though, and I won't be surprised if the Bengals can catch them. Their matchup the day after Christmas likely decides the division winner.

Fantasy Notes

--When is the media going to talk about Lamar Jackson's (20-32 for 165 yards, 1 TD/4 INT, 17-68-0) limitations and the fact that he is an overrated QB? Never. Because they have already sold themselves to his cause, his story, the same way they always choose favorites. They know he's the greatest thing ever, and no amount of evidence will convince them otherwise.

I'm not even kidding, this week I have seen multiple people make the argument that because the Ravens won despite the 4 INT's, that proves that Lamar is great. I'm sorry, what?? What kind of logic is that? It's the logic of people desperate to protect their own failing narratives.

Lamar is a good football player, no doubt, he wins a lot of games, but he's also a limited passer that's going to struggle when the flow of the game doesn't go his way. He needs a lot of help to be great and luckily he has one of the better organizations behind him to provide that support, but with things slowly starting to fall apart in Baltimore, the cracks are starting to show.

In 2021, Lamar has only thrown for more than 1 TD pass in a game twice, both times in ridiculous comeback situations against teams playing prevent defenses. For the season he now has 15 TD's and 12 INT's. Those are the numbers of a pretty good rookie, not a supposed league MVP.

Jalen Hurts: 60.1% comp, 2435 yards, 13 TD, 8 INT, 122 carries, 695 yards, 8 TD

Lamar Jackson: 64.2% comp, 2612 yards, 15 TD, 12 INT, 123 carries, 707 yards, 2 TD

According to the media one of these is an MVP candidate and the other needs to be replaced ASAP because he's a backup talent at best. Rational thought is not the strong suit of most people.

--Jarvis Landry (6-111-0/10) went over 100 yards here and is still being seen as the best option on this crap WR corp, but he also stupidly fumbled a ball away trying to run/pass on a trick play. If he had thrown the ball back to Mayfield that wouldn't have happened, but Landry still thinks he's some amazing superstar receiver that can do whatever he wants like his buddy OBJ. Neither player has been good for years, but don't try to tell them that. Hopefully Cleveland sees the light and rids themselves of this problem in the off-season.

--The guy Baker was working the most after Landry was definitely Donovan Peoples-Jones (2-10-0/5), but the connection just isn't there. Peoples-Jones is a good technician but can struggle to separate from more athletic corners. He's a nice #2 and should be a part of this passing game moving forward, but his ceiling seems capped for fantasy.

--Ja'Marcus Bradley (2-18-0/2) saw his snaps scaled back after last week, but he's definitely worked his way into the rotation as the #3 guy now. He's a decent player, but I still don't see signs of special and you don't want the #3 guy for Clevealand anyways. You barely want the #1 guy.

--Don't worry about Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Baltimore sold out to shut them down. Most teams can't do that. They'll get their numbers.

--If David Njoku (3-35-1/5) could catch, this might have been a monster day for him. In fact, I'm not sure how the official stat line is 3 of 5 for him as I saw him drop 3 passes for sure. Just another perfect scouting job by RC years ahead of time. Njoku has the athleticism but butterfingers to go along with it.

--Thanks for your services D'Ernest Johnson, get back on the bench! The fact that DJ can't get even a single carry or screen pass shows how far this coaching staff has their collective heads up stuck where the sun don't shine. Hopefully Johnson gets a chance to move on to a team that actually appreciates him in free agency.

IDP Notes

--The most interesting thing I saw in this game (you're not going to like it RC), Jeremiah Owusu-Kormoah (13 tackles, 0.5) sacks was flying all over the field making tackles. He looked fantastic, like a mix of Devin Bush and Roquan Smith.

He's been putting up around 4 tackles a game on 30-50% of the defensive snaps all year, but has gotten 80%+ three times now and has 25 tackles in those games. The numbers were a bit inflated here due to the Baltimore run game, but if he's going to be a full-time starter now, he might be up in that 8-9 tackle a game range. If you need a good LB off waivers I would jump on this. I don't believe it's a fluke.

*RC NOTE: I’m seeing good JOK numbers, but I’m not sure he’s playing great defense. He might just be in a good spot, a Joker position, to get to numbers but isn't having a big impact on the total defensive effort...he could be leaving gaps all over in his constant pursuit of tackles/the backfield/the ball. Makes a solid tackle play one snap, then is caught overplaying a fake and leaves a big chunk of the field exposed. That’s my fear with him, but it’s just speculation. I need to watch more tape of him in action. Good for IDP, possible issue for an NFL defense. We’ll see. Maybe he’s a disruptor. I won’t rule it out. From my college scouting memory, I thought he was a mediocre pursuer not a real defender in all phases. 

Like how Joey Bosa is considered a franchise player but I think he hurts a defense overall...but he does get a cool sack every other game. The other 68 plays in a game, ehhhh...not so cool. He’s a good pass rusher though...you just have to hope every play is somehow 3rd & long so his game fits the situation right. *See, also: the cool-looking defensive albatross Jamal Adams. 

https://youtu.be/8IIrf_JSuQk

Snap Counts of Interest

56 = Jarvis Landry

45 = Donovan Peoples-Jones

21 = Ja'Marcus Bradley

30 = Nick Chubb

23 = Kareem Hunt

6 = D'Ernest Johnson

61 = Marquise Brown

36 = Rashod Bateman

35 = Devin Duvernay

35 = Sammy Watkins

40 = Devonta Freeman

36 = Latavius Murray

2 = Ty'Son Williams

R.C. Fischer

FFM

03 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Bengals 41, Steelers 10

No big game detail examination needed here. The Bengals kicked the Steelers arse from the opening bell. This was never a game. It was a sad affair, actually. It was already true, but this game kinda marks the official timeline where the Bengals shift into becoming more of an AFC North power…and even more marks the end of the Steelers run as a ‘good’ team…as a ‘respected franchise’.

The Steelers are one step ahead (for the good) of the Atlanta Falcons…i.e. teams that are secretly one of the worst in the league, and they have a respected, veteran QB past their prime (a la the final years of Eli Manning) that they have a hard time admitting are ‘done’.

Once the Steelers, for example, ditch Ben (or more likely he ditches them/retires) then it really means ‘it’s over’…the decade long run as a top/respected team is over. I mean, it’s already over/been over…but when Ben is officially ‘done’ it’s like the dot on the ‘i’. The Steelers are trying to fight that reality…they hope against hope…they give the long-time stellar employee that one last chance to save them – but they can’t. Eli ended like that. Ben is now. Matt Ryan is as well.

It happens to all the great ones, eventually. The Steelers, as we projected in the preseason, are dead/going to finish in last place…are the weakest team in the AFC North, and as a bonus – they have no franchise QB in sight and their O-Line is devastated. Some lean years coming to Pittsburgh. And no free agent with options is going there willingly. The first person who types an article on ‘the Steelers should go get Deshaun or Rodgers or Russ’ should be shot. The last people to realize that no one cares about the Steelers rich history…are delusional fans cheerleaded on by the delusional local media.

Steelers fans…go look at the New York Giants for the past 3-5+ years. They’re a joke, a shell of what they used to be -- but they think they’re still an NFL elite franchise ‘name’, a desired destination by one and all.

The Steelers are (5-5-1) on their way to 6-7 wins at best, and last place in the AFC North.

What’s happening to the Steelers is happening in reverse to the Cincinnati Bengals. We’re all so used to the Bengals being a joke, that we can’t wrap our minds around them as the power in the AFC North for the future. As delusional as the Steelers fans are, the Bengals fans are the reverse…they can’t hardly enjoy this season, their rise because they’re waiting for the other shoe to fall and wipe them out and force them into last place.

If you had to bet on one team from the AFC North to win the most division titles the next five years – you would make that bet with the Burrow’s…I mean, Bengals.

Cincinnati has beaten the Steelers twice this season, by a combined 65-20 score. Cincy beat the Ravens, at Baltimore, by 24 a few weeks ago…and only by 24 because they pulled their starters late in the game. The Bengals are a ‘drafted Penei Sewell instead of Ja’Marr Chase’ away from sheer AFC North dominance. They may achieve it anyway…partly because all the other teams are collapsing…and the Ravens are the luckiest team in the NFL right now. The Ravens are (8-3) and they are very lucky they are not (3-8) right now. Some of their wins have been miracles…some against the worst teams in the league.

The Bengals are (7-4) and are my 51/49 pick to win the division from here (over BAL). I think the Bengals are way better than the Ravens, but the current schedule and standings gives Baltimore a great shot to take the division. If the Bengals go and smoke LAC this week, then you really have to take this team seriously as a team ‘you don’t wanna play’. Tough schedule ahead but they should get to 10 wins and that giving them a shot to win the AFC North, assuming they beat Baltimore Week 16 for a clean sweep of the Ravens in 2021. The Bengals are not perfect by any means…just better than everyone else in the division.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Big Ben (24-41 for 263 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) threw a pick-six early and it just stayed bad from there. Eventually, the game got so out of hand that as backups rolled in and the Bengals main guys were yukking it up on the sidelines Ben finally put some numbers up late and his lone passing TDs.

It’s all Ben has to offer anymore…prayer throws, and junk time hopes.

 -- Ben’s issues continue to have this FF-affect…

1) Diontae Johnson (9-95-0/14) is Ben’s most trusted look…and even if he starts slow, when the junk time comes around…Diontae is his main man in general.

And Diontae is in real trouble for the same role/targeting when Ben leaves/is dropped next year. One of the top ‘sells’ for Dynasty offseason 2022.

2) Pat Freiermuth (4-40-1/4) is Ben’s trusted red zone, end zone option…and he faces a weak-against-the-TE Baltimore defense this week, one that has played Diontae well – DJ has never had more than 54 yards in a game v. BAL and has not scored a TD against them in 4 career games.

3) Chase Claypool (3-82-0/8) is your WR3/flex hail mary option…Ben flings him prayers, and all it takes is one for CC to land.

 -- Najee Harris (8-23-0, 3-14-0/5) has looked not-good this season, but it doesn’t matter because he gets the volume to make up for it.

If the Steelers don’t find a QB and don’t fix their O-Line…he’s going to be a fringe RB1 ahead. If they can get an O-Line…Harris can be a high-end RB1 on volume and production. He’s a straight-ahead runner that needs straight ahead holes to run through.

Either way, he’s an RB1 threat…with the worry that he has a Josh Jacobs career arc. He’ll likely be in the list for the #1 overall RB/player taken in 2022 redrafts. Keep and use him if you wish, but if you ever entertain a trade-off…just know he’s the apple of everyone’s eye. You should get a ridiculous amount in exchange for him.

 -- Let’s finish out the Steelers notes with defense talk…

This Steelers-DST looks dead, even with T.J. Watt playing. No Haden, no Watt possible this week…and that’s even worse.

Alex Highsmith (5 tackles, 2 TFLs) is emerging out of this mess. 8 TFLs in his last 6 games.

 -- Joe Burrow (20-24 for 190 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) didn’t have a great FF day but he didn’t need to…the Bengals whacked PIT right away and they just ran Joe Mixon (28-165-2, 4-0-0/4) over their downtrodden souls.

It’s possible Najee is the 3rd-best back to have for Fantasy in 2022…in his own division.  

 -- Tee Higgins (6-114-1/8) had his best game of the season…finally. It’s been a choppy season for Tee, but he missed a few games and went on a TD drought…but he’s a back-end top 25 PPR PPG WR this season to date.

Since Ja’Marr Chase (3-38-0/3) cooled off starting Week 8 (under 50 yards rec. four straight games), the top PPR WR since Week 8 for Cincy is Tee not Ja’Marr.

Since Week 8:

13.6 PPG = Higgins

10.5 PPG = Chase

09.4 PPG = Boyd

 -- I know people still do not take the Bengals seriously, in general, because every time I pitched them as a legit DST to start last week…there was nothing but groans or no visible reaction/excitement. People still (over)respect Ben/the Steelers and totally discount how good the Bengals defense is. I’ve been carrying the torch for Cincy’s defense as ‘good’…top 5-10 good in the NFL…all season.

Last week, for projections, I was more excited about ‘v. Ben/PIT’ than I was ‘Bengals D’. You have to look at the Steelers offense as ‘to target’ for opposing DSTs and we also all need to respect the Cincy defense. All that said, Cincy’s only real worthy DST start the rest of the FF season is Week 15 at DEN, and that’s not amazing but viable/hopeful.

 -- As always, the best way to wrap up a Steelers game analysis: https://youtu.be/rJVAbIz2h_w

And you get a bonus this week, showing how low this franchise is falling and the fans are realizing it ahead of their local fawning media: https://youtu.be/EsF7gZtg94I

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Claypool

61 = Diontae

27 = J Washington

25 = Anthony Miller

52 = Boyd

52 = Chase

43 = Higgins

22 = Stanley Morgan

R.C. Fischer

FFM

02 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Bucs 38, Colts 31

I’m not sure what I just watched here.

Tom Brady had one of the worst games I’ve seen him have in a long time, at least in the 1st-half…he was under no real pressure, he had time and was looking over things, patting the ball as receivers ran routes, but then was just throwing passes right to defenders like they weren’t even there all 1st-quarter (and fortunately they dropped some of them). Like, I thought maybe Brady had like some eye issue or something. I’ve not seen anything like it from him this season.

Neither defense could really pressure the QB at first, but the coverage web was great, so the game devolved into a battle of checkdowns and turnovers…7 total turnovers…5 by Indy. If the Colts could hold onto the ball (3 lost fumbles) then they would have probably blown out the Bucs here. My main overview from this game: I could not tell that one team was better than the other.

If I had to pick a side, I’d say Indianapolis was the superior team…but Brady is so smart, and adjusts, and never gets frazzled, and he just kept TB in the game until the Colts shot themselves in the foot enough time for the Bucs to win in the end. It’s a shame, because the Colts were the better team for most of the game and would have cut their AFC South deficit to just one game, and they would’ve made that up and won the division in the end…now, it’s back to ‘time is running out’ for the Colts.

Indianapolis falls to (6-6) with a schedule problem looming. They should beat Houston Week 13 to get to (7-6), and then a Week 14 bye…and then a real Week 15-16 problem, facing arguably two of the 5 best teams in the NFL – NE and at ARI. If they lose those to fall to (7-8), they have to win out (LV, at JAX) just to get to 9 wins. They Colts are very hard pressed to get to 10 wins, much less 9. They have no great tiebreaker win against an obvious wild card team on the books…their playoff path is uphill, which is a shame because they are a good team.

Tampa Bay jumps to (8-3) and I don’t believe they are as good as ARI, GB, or fully healthy DAL in the NFC…but they have Tom Brady, and the other teams don’t, so you can’t bet against them. They need home field over Green Bay to get a repeat trip to the title game. Tampa/Tom will be just fine at ARI or DAL, in a dome…but Brady in Green Bay in January is a problem. TB should finish with 12-13-14 wins and have a good shot at the #1 seed but so much still to play out. 12 wins is an absolute given the TB schedule.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Tom Brady (25-34 for 226 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) 2021 splits…

12 TDs/7 INTs = Brady vs. teams one game under .500 or better (7 games)

16 TDs/1 INT = Brady vs. teams two games or worse under .500 (4 games)

Brady crushes the weak and is more human against the better teams/defenses. That’s why I believe The Bucs -11.0 at ATL is the best bet of the 2021 season. In those five games against the ‘weak’ this season, TB has won by 23, 28, 35, 20 points…including beating ATL by 23. Also, Atlanta may be the single worst team in the NFL.

 -- Carson Wentz (27-44 for 306 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs, 3-21-0) is a good but limited QB. However, the Colts run game and great O-Line is propelling Wentz to fringe QB1 status.

12 games played this season, 8 of them with 2 or more TD passes. 21 TDs/5 INTs this season for Wentz.

He FF-works in good matchups…and good matchups for him are ones where they are likely to be down and throwing more. He’s the Ryan Tannehill 2020 for FF 2021. Efficient, hiding behind the run game fear/plan to stop by the defense.

Weeks 15-16 v. NE and ARI is not good for him…

 -- Does this Jack Doyle (6-81-1/7) thing have legs?

As I’ve been crowing about all week, since calling this Doyle pop ahead of last week – yes, I think it’s on the table.

It’s on the table for two reasons…

1) You can see the trend moving his direction…

1.6 rec. (2.6 targets), 17.5 yards, 0.00 TDs = Doyle (Wks 1-7)

3.0 rec. (4.3 targets), 33.0 yards, 0.60 TDs per game = Doyle (Wks 8-12)

4.0 rec. (5.7 targets), 47.3 yards, 0.33 TDs per game = Doyle (Wks 10-12)

Wentz is getting comfortable here. Doyle’s snap counts haven’t changed…his targets have, upward.

2) Tell me Doyle isn’t Wentz’s 2nd favorite receiver/target now?

Jonathan Taylor is the focal point of the offense; this we all know. But when they throw the ball, everything is to Michael Pittman…defenses have figured that out and now double and triple Pittman at times. If Wentz has to throw downfield, and Pittman is doubled and Taylor is shadowed…it’s Doyle, Hilton, or Pascal. It used to be Pascal, but now it’s shifting to more Doyle. Pascal has 4 catches for 21 yards…total…the past 3 games.

Mo Alie-Cox was getting a push prior as well. His snap counts haven’t changed either, but his targets have – 3.2 targets per game Weeks 1-8, 1.5 targets per game Weeks 9-12. Alie-Cox has 3 catches for 42 yards…total…his past 5 games.

Doyle is Wentz’s Zach Ertz…developing.

It’s not set in stone. It could shift. Doyle could have a dud v. HOU this week because it’s a blowout and they rotate more guys, but I really believe…like I mentioned last week…something is brewing here. A 3-5 catch, 30-50 yards, shot at a TD every week kinda thing.

 -- I still have full belief in Michael Pittman (4-53-0/10) as one of the best WRs in the NFL in 2021. He’s working like an elite. In Dynasty, I would use this down period of his (no TDs in three straight games…GASP). It’s not BUY at any cost…it’s buy LOWer/as a WR2.

The three WRs that get the most attention from defenses, that I see in 2021, so I’ll take some cues from that as to their quality: Tyreek Hill, Michael Pittman, and Big Mike Williams. One of them is accepted by the universe as a top dog. The other two you can buy as WR2s, but they are showing WR1 abilities…dominant ones.

 -- Leonard Fournette (17-100-3, 7-31-1/8) scored 4 TDs here, and as with most multi-TD games…a lot of circumstances had to fall the right way. Failed other attempts right before the player getting his short TD shot (the James Conner story).

When you’re the main RB for the best offenses in football…good FF things usually fall your way. Not an absolute, but an advantage (the James Conner story).

I didn’t think Fournette would be the clear, main guy here at the start of the season – so, a big miss I tried to warn/get us into around Weeks 3-4-5. If you did, it paid off here. His prior 3 games…no TDs.

He rushed for 100 yards here…the first time he’s done so in 2021.

 -- If you ignore the Week 8 game that Gronk (7-123-0/10) tried to come back from his injury and last 6 plays and then left for more weeks, in his other five games in 2021 season he’s averaging: 5.8 rec. (7.4 targets), 75.6 yards, and 0.80 TDs per game…12.4 non-PPR, 18.2 PPR PPG, which is the CLEAR #1 FF PPG scoring TD in Fantasy.

 -- I expected Mike Evans (3-16-0/6) to have a big game here, like usual…nothing radical about that call. However, he did not have said big game.

You know why? Xavier Rhodes (5 tackles, 1 PD) is starting to ramp up again. He’s getting healthier and back to his good+ ways. If he comes on and stays healthy – it makes this Indy unit a top 10 type NFL defense threat.

 -- Since Week 2, Antoine Winfield (7 tackles, 1 PD) is the #4t IDP PPG scorer among DBs, a blink away from #3.

Snap Counts of Interest:

42 = Doyle

39 = Alie-Cox

09 = Granson

54 = Fournette

12 = RoJo

01 = Gio

R.C. Fischer

FFM

02 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Giants 13, Eagles 7

Weird game…a battle of two bad offenses constantly driving down into scoring territory and then throwing picks and missing kicks.

18 series in the game, 11 of them got into the other team's side of the field…4 scoring drives, 3 INTs ending drives, two drives failed on 4th-down attempts, 1 missed FG and a partridge in a pair tree.

Jalen Hurts looks terrible as a passer in his offense, and the Giants defense came to play. It didn’t help that when Hurts was on the money, Jalen Reagor dropped two game winning TDs at the goal line (tough catches, but makeable catches) on two separate drives late, one the last play/gasp of the game for Philly.

The Giants win not because they’re so superior to the Eagles, but because the Giants are just tougher and have a good+ defense that has the potential to be great someday. They are going to make a MASSIVE mistake getting rid of Dave Gettleman. Keep Gettleman, fire Daniel Jones. Let Gettleman have a shot at fixing the issue while he’s built promise around the bad QB.

The Giants win and hang on to playoff hopes at (4-7). If they can steal a win at Miami Week 13, a huge if, they can get to five wins and then they have a mini gauntlet to make or break their season with at LAC, DAL, at PHI Weeks 14-16. If they win two of those 3 games to get to (7-8), then they can win-out at CHI and WSH Weeks 16-17. No room for error, but my new favorite team/my G-Men aren’t dead yet.

What’s that you say…? Daniel Jones might be out the rest of the season with a neck injury! Awesome!! Who’s their backup? Oh. Well. Let’s go Brandon, I mean Mike Glennon…I guess.

The Eagles fall to (5-7), and after a two-game win streak where the media accepted Hurts as a franchise QB for the moment…they just lost, so this week he’s not and the Eagles need to draft a QB or trade for Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson and anyone else available…because all QBs want to play for the Eagles. Is there any team more involved in every trade rumor that in reality players have zero interest in playing for than the Eagles?

The Eagles have four winnable games ahead, that you know they won’t sweep. At NYJ, bye, WSH, NYG, at WSH. They finish with Dallas, so Philly likely winds up with 7-8 wins and no playoffs. If they do run the table, then Week 17 hosting Dallas might be for a division title? Maybe…doubtful…

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Miles Sanders (9-64-0, 1-0-0/1) came off the field limping in the 2nd-half but did return to the game after that. He’s questionable for Week 13. Most likely he will play/start/be forced all the touches Week 13.

Boston Scott (15-64-1) came in to spell Sanders often, was the better back, as always…and he won’t matter unless Sanders goes down again.

When Miles Sanders has been active/starting, the past two seasons (2020-2021), the Eagles are 5-15-1.

When Sanders is inactive, in that same span, the Eagles are 4-3-0, with one of the losses Week 17 last season that they could’ve won/were winning, but they tanked the 4th-quarter so Washington would win the division, or they’d be 5-2-0 without Sanders.

No matter. You should see the Eagles record when Nick Foles starts.

The Eagles hate players who help them win/are attracted to those that can help them lose…like Sanders.

 -- All week, all pregame, all in-game, all anyone could talk about was how Jason Garrett got fired, in part, because of the misuse/underutilization of Kenny Golladay (3-50-0/7)…and I think that is logical – but I guess they should fire Freddie Kitchens after this, no?

Same old 2021 Golladay…2-4 catches and no real impact. Darius Slay ate him alive on the outside and when they took end zone shots with KG.

I’m not done with KG for FF but am done with this situation for 2021…we’ll see if Mike Glennon can save the day. I’d buy all the rock bottom priced shares of KG in Dynasty.

 -- Speaking of ‘done’, me and Evan Engram (3-37-0/6) are on a full ‘break’ for FF 2021. I love the talent, but this offensive plan and QB are so bad there is no hope and never any results.

The Eagles have been abused by every opposing TE/s for the past two months. If there was ever an upside event for Engram it would be this game, with the illustrious Freddie Kitchens now at O-C. Engram came out on fire, two catches for nice yards early so you’re thinking the team really gets how to fight Philly -- then just one more catch the next 50+ minutes of the game.

In the immortal words of Kevin O’Leary, “I’m out!’ I don’t care what the matchup is, it doesn’t matter for Engram here.

Maybe I should run with Chris Myarick (2-11-1/2) instead? No, please don’t.

Myarick scored a TD in his debut and is now just 1 TD behind Evan Engram on the season…and one TD ahead of Kenny Golladay.

 -- Jalen Hurts (14-31 for 129 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs, 8-77-0) is going to have these kinda duds, but mostly he’s been a top producer for FF. He’s the #6 QB in PPG in 4pts per pass TD leagues YTD…just a tick ahead of Patrick Mahomes. Week 13 at NYJ should be solid.

 -- Ready to freak out…a little, not a lot?

Daniel Jones (19-30 for 202 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) has played 38 career NFL games and has thrown for two TDs or more in a game 10 times.

Mike Glennon has played in 35 NFL games in his career and has thrown for 2 or more TDs 15 times. In fact, he’s done it 15 times in his 29 games where he has thrown 20 or more passes in a game…doing so over 50% of the time Glennon has started in his career, he’s thrown for 2 or more TDs.

44 TDs/27 INTs = Glennon (career, 1,005 attempts)

45 TDs/29 INTs = Dan Dimes (career, 1,268 attempts)

I’m not sure it’s a huge drop-off from Dimes to Glennon…it might actually be an improvement?

 -- Dallas Goedert (1-0-0/3) has started/played in 11 games this season. He has two TDs. Four games over 60 yards. Not good. Not elite. Not his fault. This passing game is the worst.

 -- My happiest moment of watching this game: I got to watch NYG rookie CB Aaron Robinson (6 tackles, 2 PDs) play 67% of the snaps (his most work of the year) and shutting down receivers and is the one who battled Reagor for those potential game winners that didn’t connect.

I believe…no, I know Aaron Robinson is the best cover corner from the 2021 NFL Draft…in pure cover skills sense. Eric Stokes was the best CB prospect grade for us on his size, athleticism, and cover ability…on his future projection to be elite. Robinson was out top cover technique right away/ready made. ARob is a little more limited athletically than Stokes but is the best in actual man-to-man combat…and we got to see it here. Both are great prospects.

Robinson + James Bradberry…and Xavier McKinney coming on strong…with Adoree Jackson. This defense has the potential to be bad ass in the future.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Golladay

44 = Slayton

35 = Ph Cooper

11 = J Ross

52 = Barkley

10 = Booker

34 = Scott

22 = Sanders

11 = Gainwell

Ross Jacobs

FFM

01 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Falcons 21, Jaguars 14 

The only reason Atlanta won this game solidly is because they got a turnover early in the game with a short field and that led to a quick score and a 14-3 lead. Other than that, these are two fairly evenly matched teams...they both suck.

I have no idea how the Falcons have won 5 games. Well, I do actually. Because Cordarrelle Patterson should be in the top 3 for MVP. But other than Patterson this team blows. No creativity, no energy, Matt Ryan is almost as painful to watch as Big Ben...they are going to get utterly smashed against the Bucs this week.

The Jaguars aren't a very talented team, but even with all the turmoil they've dealt with this year watching their head coach fondle strange girls in bars, they are still playing with more fire than the Falcons. If it wasn't for that early turnover (and Trevor Lawrence) I think they would have won this game.

With this win the Falcons keep their (misguided) playoff hopes alive. It's a fool's dream. They have 3 nearly guaranteed losses coming against the Bucs, Bills, and 49'ers but 3 potentially winnable games against the Saints, Panthers, and Lions. I think they beat the Lions and one of the other two games to bring them to 7-10 on the season and ultimately miss the playoffs.

The Jaguars fall to 2-9 and are likely to finish with only another win or two against the Jets or Texans. Every other game they are huge underdogs. This team has a little fight in them lately, but they are just bad on defense and bad at QB. I don't see any reason why the ship would get righted anytime soon.

Fantasy Notes

--To any Kyle Pitts (2-26-0/6) owners out there...I feel your pain. I've been starting him every week too. A few weeks ago I thought he might be on the verge of a breakout, but it's becoming more and more apparent that circumstances will not allow it to happen...this year.

I've watched a lot of Pitts because I'm vested in this outcome and I can confidently say the issue is not Pitts. The problem is Matt Ryan is washed and Arthur Smith isn't doing Pitts any favors. Pitts is doubled literally every single play, typically with two defenders running zone coverage, one going high and the other low. Defenses can afford to because who else do they have? Well, they do have MVP candidate Patterson, but defenses don't seem to really care. Patterson is always 1-on-1 when he lines up out wide, but the defense follows Pitts wherever he goes. I haven't seen this kind of respect for a rookie ever. I've barely seen this type of respect for any player this year. Everyone knows he's special except, apparently, Arthur Smith.

What's my beef with Smith? He's doing absolutely nothing to help spring Pitts open. No play action where Pitts runs hidden behind the line into the flat (every team does this and their garbage TE's are always wide open), no double moves, nothing down the field...it's the same old boring short/medium plays that your parent’s favorite TE from the 1990's would run.

Oh and let's not forget that Ryan is one step away from the broadcast booth. He couldn't hit Pitts in stride even if Pitts didn't have anyone covering him. Pitts is so dominant he'll still sometimes pop open, but Ryan will throw it high and away or low and behind him. One of his catches here was actually a magnificent catch on a pass low and behind him and Pitts just snatched it away from the trailing defender.

All of this to say...it's not Pitts, and I do believe better days are ahead. Maybe not 2021 but dynasty players should be buying. Pitts won't ever be this low again.

--Cordarrelle Patterson (16-108-2, 2-27-0/3) for MVP. That is all.

--As Ryan dies before our eyes he's taking everything with him except maybe Russell Gage (6-62-1/7). It's not a great connection, just an easy short throw for Ryan, but it is something, and it's not getting much respect in ppr leagues because it's boring (no 100 yard games). But in his last 5 games (throwing out the Dallas game where all the starters sat early), Gage has averaged 5.4 catches for 54 yards and 0.4 TD's per game (13.2 ppg). That's WR2-2.5 work.

--Speaking of bad QB's, Trevor Lawrence (23-42 for 228 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 5-39-0) isn't getting better. If anything he's getting worse. The Jaguars actually had a chance to tie the game on their final drive, but against a prevent defense Lawrence could barely complete a pass. There are tons of awful QB's that easily score in 2-minute situations every week and yet Lawrence couldn't even connect with wide open receivers. Generational my ass.

--Dan Arnold hurt his knee here and was replaced by James O'Shaughnessy (3-29-0/5). I guess O'Shaughnessy works as a TE streamer, but this passing game sucks and he's way down the target totem pole. If Arnold wasn't getting it done, what makes you think O'Shaughnessy will?

--Early on it was obvious Jacksonville was trying to get Laviska Shenault (5-33-0/9) the ball on his short stuff again, but of course it didn't work because Laviska has no short area quickness. You can't start him right now no matter how much the team says they want to get him the ball.

--After Shenault failed, Lawrence turned to his old favorite Marvin Jones (4-43-0/7) and this worked a little better. Jones is a much better overall receiver than Shenault, but Lawrence was all over the place with his accuracy and Jones was forced to make ridiculous catches just to bring the ball in. Jones can still be used as a WR3 for now.

--However, the most interesting thing from this game started to happen in the 3rd and 4th quarters. I was mostly checked out of the rewatch at that point and just ready to move onto the next game when suddenly I noticed a Jaguar receiver moving around really well, playing with a ton of energy and combativeness, running through tackles, making tough catches...who on earth was this new mystery man? Turns out it was none other than former 1st round bust Laquon Treadwell (4-53-0/8) and boy did he look fantastic.

The biggest knock on Treadwell years ago was his speed, but his effort was also questioned. Not here. He looked fast and sleek, in much better shape than his early career, and he was sprinting back to the ball after each play. You could tell he was getting a chance and knew this was his final shot to prove himself.

I don't want to run off the rails with this because Lawrence is still the QB and there are two guys ostensibly ahead of him, but I never thought the Jags would turn to Jamal Agnew either and yet they did. After Treadwell made his first play or two it was obvious somebody recognized it because he was the main target late in the game. Maybe this just disappears against the Rams, but maybe it doesn't.

The Jags have already shown they'll play anyone that can help the team. I think we're going to see Treadwell with a minor breakout here. How much it's worth for fantasy I couldn't begin to guess however. All I'm saying is that I'm on alert and I'm telling RC to watch too because this might be yet another late-breaking opportunity for WR needy teams. I haven't heard a peep about Treadwell from anyone in the industry, so we're way ahead of a possible breakout here. If you have the room I'd stash Treadwell just in case, but if space is tight you might get away with waiting another week to see how it develops.

IDP Notes

--Shaquille Quarterman (7 tackles) somehow managed to log those 7 tackles on a mere 20 snaps. The guy was a 4th round pick by Jacksonville in 2020 out of Miami where he was a 4-year starter for the Hurricanes and highly productive. He apparently fell in the draft due to athleticism concerns as his numbers were far from eye-catching.

I was watching for him here on RC's request and was getting frustrated because he was so rarely in, and even when he did get in nothing much really stood out about him. The athleticism concerns seem to be real but overblown. He's not a speedster by any means, but he gets to the ball. Reminds me a lot of Azeez Al-Shaiir and Krys Barnes, two other guys that don't blow you away when you see them play but then you look at the box score and they have 10+ tackles.

Quarterman upped his snaps from week 1 to 2, then was out for two weeks, back in at about 20 snaps a game for two weeks and then out again until his return in week 11 with 8 snaps and back up to 20 here, partially due to Damien Wilson going down with an injury. 20 is the highest he's played in any one game all year, but the guy is averaging a tackle every 5.3 snaps for the year. That's an extremely good rate and if he could keep it up while increasing his snaps we could be looking at a shock IDP performer out of nowhere. Let's see if he's starting this week with Wilson out.

--Falcons rookie safety Richie Grant (4 tackles, 2 tfl) is playing more of a LB role than true safety. He's still just rotating in, but when he does he's usually around the line of scrimmage trying to attack. He's pretty good at slipping through to the backfield, but I've yet to see any kind of real coverage ability. Just looks like a small LB right now.

Snap Counts of Interest

71 = Marvin Jones

63 = Laquon Treadwell

53 = Laviska Shenault

13 = Tavon Austin

59 = James O'Shaughnessy

27 = Chris Manhertz

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Broncos 28, Chargers 13

Completely embarrassing…

This Chargers team is totally embarrassing.

Of all the teams in the NFL, when you look at the roster of talent, and the talent-level at the key positions (QB and O-L) of all NFL teams and search for what team has the most talent but its results are way off the talent grade – the Chargers have to be the #1 gap, the top ‘letdown’ of the 2021 NFL season to date.

The Chargers are the most talented team in the AFC West, and they are headed to a last place finish in the division at this rate. Why? You have to blame the coaching staff. It’s the only reason one could put their finger on as to why a top 10 roster is playing like a bottom 10 team.

The problem was on full display in this game. Denver played with energy…flying around to the ball on defense. Jumping up and down, high fiving after good plays. There was an energy. The Chargers play like they’re reading the newspaper on a Sunday morning. No real energy. No grit. Just comfortably going through the motions.

The two Los Angeles based teams have the same issue – super smart coach who is so smart and so professional and so well-spoken that it’s possible that they have no real connection with the team, and they have/acquired/don’t groom players who are not leaders on the field to generate that fire (it’s all we can assume from watching them play).

If I were Brandon Staley, if I lose Week 13 at Cincinnati…I’d fire my O-C and D-C on Monday, in order to try and salvage the season. This is the most talented, most limp offense in the NFL (among the talented teams) – how do you ruin/butcher Justin Herbert? How do you make him worse in year two…worse than when he was with awful/no help Anthony Lynn? It’s happening right before our eyes. LAC still has time to get their S together and get into the playoffs and be a dangerous team – but at this rate they are going to finish last in the division, out of the playoffs. Denver and Las Vegas should not be better than the Chargers, but they are…and it’s not a talent issue, it's a passion and grit issue. The Chargers are SAWFT like the Rams, and as the season goes on…the sawft are getting sawfter. https://youtu.be/c78FOIsS5fw

I don’t mean to take away from the Broncos, they kicked the Chargers arse from the opening bell. Hell, they had to play Drew Lock for a stretch with Teddy in doubt to return…and the Chargers never took advantage of the cold-incoming-QB, and the Broncos never quit under the curveball loss of their leader. Good for the gritty Broncos…they’ve had so much bad luck the last two years under Vic Fangio, so many last-minute losses, it looks like Fangio is saving his job. If he can just get to 2022 and team up with Aaron Rodgers…

Denver is now (6-5)…tied for 2nd in the AFC West…and tied for last. They have a monster turning point game with KC on SNF Week 13, which they’ll likely lose and then everyone will be back to freaking out wanting to fire Fangio at season’s end again. We see Denver ending with 8-9 wins, and possibly a wild card. The jury is still out.

The Chargers blew a chance to tie for the AFC West lead and are now (6-5). If they lose at Cincy this week, all hell should break loose and they’re going to have to scramble their way to 9 wins and a wild card at best. However, if they go and right the ship, take out Cincy and get to (7-5), then beat NYG the following week to get to (8-5)…then it’s a Week 15 showdown where LAC can host KC and take back everything they frittered away the past several weeks. Week 13 at cold Cincinnati is a huge test for the SAWFT Chargers. I think they’ll get that win and have a shot to turn things around and get to 10 wins and a wild card, at least.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- How do you ruin Justin Herbert (28-44 for 303 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs)? Seriously…how? He’s so good, but this offense is so stagnant. Guys are barely open…defenders are running the WR’s routes for them it’s so predictable. If I were Brandon Staley, I’d fire my O-C today…I wouldn’t give him a chance to fix this. I could coordinate the LAC offense with Herbert at QB, and I don’t know what I’m doing.

In my opinion, they are playing the wrong players in so many spots it’s not even funny.

They have tried to push the worst RB in the NFL on and off all season…Larry Rountree. They coulda been trying out D’Onta Foreman or any number of waiver wire RBs for months, but they usually stick with Rountree and always hurt Justin Jackson or stop-starting playing time with Joshua Kelley.

They play ancient Jared Cook (2-25-1/5) and deemphasize the mismatch nightmare Donald Parham (1-5-0/1).

They play awful Jalen Guyton (2-23-0/3) more and deemphasize the clearly superior rookie Joshua Palmer (2-25-0/2).

They should start Palmer, and not-start Parham but let Cook have that ceremonial title but then play Parham more snaps -- and thus try and change this offensive dynamic. If they don’t make changes for this massive Week 13 at Cincy, then I don’t know what will force them to after this embarrassing performance.

They have the talent. It’s all fixable. I just don’t know that they can figure it out…because they are all so smart, they are also stubborn and stuck in their ways…like 99% of NFL coaches.

 -- Mike Williams’ (4-39-0/8) plight is emblematic of the LAC problem. To me, watching all the game tape of every game every week, there is no more impressive WR than Mike Williams in 2021. Physically dominant. In the best shape and movement skills of his life. His first few weeks of play was MVP-like. Now, they are pained to get him the ball.

A top five QB…a top five WR…and they cannot figure out how to pitch-and-catch with him and dominate with him, when they had prior. Something has been figured out by defenses…it’s on the O-C to make a change, and he hasn’t.

All I can tell you is, if you own Big Mike…you gotta stick with him to the death. He’s working too well on-field, with too good a QB. If it fails, blame me…blame your sins that God is punishing you through Fantasy Football for. He’s too good to bench. Kyle Pitts is similar, too good to bench…but now it is OK to bench him because he is too easy to double and his QB is a piece of literal garbage. While Williams has an elite QB talent he works with…just pray it works out.

 -- Courtland Sutton (2-17-0/3) is in that same debate. He’s so good, but his FF results are so $#!& lately. What do you do?

Kyle Pitts is a TE1 talent working in a TE3 offensive scheme with a QB3 to work with surrounded by WR2s and 3s to try and help Pitts, which is little help to him getting freed up.

Mike Williams is a WR1 talent working in a WR3 offensive scheme with a QB1 to work with Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler around to help take pressure off, even though most teams try and shut down Williams, he’s still open enough. If the offensive scheme component changes back to the early season success…everything else is wonderful.

Sutton is as talented as Big Mike…a WR1 talent working in a WR3 offense because they want to run the ball and works with a QB2-3 safe-player QB who loves to handoff and checkdown…not a help to Sutton’s output.

The case against Sutton = the situation around him stinks for FF purposes.

The case for Sutton = he’s a WR1 talent that can get hot and make plays by sheer force/will. Kendrick Bourne and Russell Gage, etc., are all hopeful WRs who might be better to start Week 13 than Sutton…but they aren’t better WRs than Sutton, not even close.

So…what wins out this week – talent or situation among the WR crowd trying to replace your Sutton problem? You pick your poison. I can’t tell you should hold Sutton any longer, but I can't tell you Gage-Bourne-AJGreen are definitely better options…they might be, but I know they aren't better WR talents.

 -- I don’t comment much on Austin Ekeler (12-31-0, 6-68-1/8) because what else is there to say? A great RB performer for Fantasy.

What I did not quite fully realize is…did you see how many TDs he has this season? 7 rushing + 7 receiving. Wow! 14 TDs in 11 games. The new Christian McCaffrey without all the injuries (which means next week…pop goes the hammy).

LAC did elevate RB Darius Bradwell (0-0-0/1) last week…a big, bruising D’Onta Foreman-like RB. He played a few snaps and dropped a pass. No signs of anything happening here after his minor debut, but at least he made the main roster. Let’s see if he is elevated again this week and actually gets a carry or two.

 -- Teddy Bridgewater’s (11-18 for 129 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 2-10-1) last four games: 0.75 passing TDs and 204.3 passing yards per game. How is Courtland Sutton or anyone else going to thrive with that? Denver is (3-1) in that span…this is the way they want to win.

Teddy has played 11 games this season, he has 0-1 TD pass AND less than 250 yards passing in the same game six of the 11 games.

That’s your case AGAINST Sutton week-to-week.

 -- This passing game drop is also taking a toll on Noah Fant (3-12-0/4)…that and the rise of Albert O. (1-12-0/2) sucking away some touches.

As Denver wins with the run game, those last 4 games where Teddy has no passing stats of note, Fant has no TDs, 3.8 catches per game, and just 29.5 yards per game.

 -- I will say it every week, every day, until you get sick of it…

The #1 young player trading under his real value (and he’s not cheap) is Javonte Williams (14-54-1, 3-57-0/4). He will be a franchise RB in 2022+. Imagine if Aaron Rodgers is at QB in 2022!

 -- The Denver-DST has held its last four opponents to 17 or fewer points…including Dallas. They play KC this week – a huge test. The Chiefs offense looks about as disjointed as the Chargers offense does. If Denver goes and thumps Mahomes…man, the media love next week for AFC West leaders Denver will be insane.

You can’t use their DST v. KC this week, but Week 14 v. DET is sweet. CIN-LV-LAC Weeks 15-17 might be OK, but not optimal.

 -- Rookie SAF Caden Sterns (1 tackle, 1 PD) played 100% of the snaps in place of Kareem Jackson…part of the reason why LAC’s passing game sputtered. Sterns is just a really good, smart safety…BUT I expected some better IDP numbers here and didn’t get them. He was in coverage a lot.

 -- Kyzir White (12 tackles) is the man at LB for LAC, and Kenneth Murray (1 tackle) has died off as a now part-time player.

Not only has Brandon Staley ruined Justin Herbert so far, now he’s ruining a great college LB who was a 1st-round pick, a Staley predicted star upon his arrival, a team leader – it’s all thrown away by Staley. Further cause to make me want nothing to do with the McVay-Shanahan coaching tree. I’m willing to see if Staley turns it around, because I think he is a good coach – but he’s sinking right now.

 -- I believe the Chargers have good defensive personnel but between health (many guys in and out the past several weeks) and schedule and coaching…and the fact they are #32 against the run and aren’t getting any better fixing that (more Staley and staff issues)…this defense looks good in spurts but never puts it all together.

I still think there is hope here. Not to play this week at CIN, but as a pairing for anyone with the Arizona-DST to finish out the season…as LAC is likely on every waiver wire out there.

ARI + LAC…

Week 13 = ARI at CHI

Week 14 = LAC v. NYG (ARI v. LAR)

Week 15 = ARI at DET

Week 16 = LAC at HOU (ARI v. IND)

Week 17 = LAC v. DEN (ARI at DAL)

If LAC’s defense gets fully healthy, and the offense turns up, given the matchups…it might be a real Week 16-17 opportunity for those heading to the playoffs/finals.

Snap Counts of Interest:

53 = Fant

28 = Albert O.

36 = Javonte

26 = Gordon

48 = Ekeler

16 = Kelley

07 = Bradwell

61 = Allen, MK Williams

39 = Guyton

30 = Palmer

37 = Cook

28 = Parham

21 = McKitty 

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Jets 21, Texans 14

These are two bad teams, for sure, going nowhere in 2021…but I appreciate that they played with effort and heart to the wire here. I won’t nitpick the minor details of the two teams/the game flow here, it wasn’t that well played or that important…besides for draft positioning, in which case the loser here is really the ‘winner’ here.

The Jets get the NFL win to jump to (3-8), and likely secure the #4 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft behind DET-JAX and now HOU. The Jets will probably beat Jacksonville Week 16 to cement their #4 draft position…a loss could get them a chance to be in the top 3 picks.

Houston falls to (2-8) and is now fighting for the #2 pick in the draft. If they beat Jacksonville (again, beat them Week 1) in Week 15, then it probably locks in the DET-JAX-HOU-NYJ 2021 Draft order. Still time for Chicago (4-7) to try and get into the top 4 draft pick race...which is owned by the Giants so that the Bears could secure the illustrious Justin Fields.

This was a fun watch, and I have a few observations…but I didn’t expect to actually catch the vapors off one player here in particular. Someone that stood out/caught my attention/got me excited about their prospects. I will reveal and discuss that player last of the player notes.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Zach Wilson (14-24 for 145 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) played, perhaps, the worst football of any QB this season for about a half of play here. But just as I was writing him off, he got things back together and helped lead the comeback effort (the Texans led 14-3 early). Early on, Wilson was overthrowing, misfiring, forcing everything…it was brutal.

Wilson is not impressing me much, and I was very ‘pro’ his prospects, as a scout, going into the 2021 NFL Draft. Every so often he flashes skills in-season that only he possesses (arm and velocity and precision)…but mostly he’s wildly inaccurate and trying to force bigger plays vs. taking easy stuff short to move down the field, and it’s not working out so well.

4 TDs/10 INTs this season for Wilson…that stats aren’t ‘lying’.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Joe Flacco takes back over. Wilson is not ready. He needs a serious QB coach to help him or stick a foot up his bum.

 -- Wilson’s issues helped pour cold water on Elijah Moore’s (4-46-0/8) recent hot streak. Moore is a WR3 with Wilson…WR1.5-2 with Flacco.

 -- The Jets ran with a heavy dose of Tevin Coleman (16-67-0, 2-3-0/3) as the lead back, as expected…and, well, you see the results. This was the best matchup that Tevin or any Jets RB is gonna get and a whole lot of ‘bleh’ for FF output.

Ty Johnson (6-42-0, 0-0-0/1) lost his PPR mojo due to Zach Wilson returning to the starting QB spot.

Austin Walter (6-38-1, 0-0-0/1) caught my attention with high effort running, up off the practice squad and rotating in some this game. It was exciting watching him grind for a moment live on Sunday, but rewatching it back…not that exciting. Walter tries hard but is not that fast and falls down with any contact because he’s so small. He’s earned some touches with his effort but he’s not that talented.

I thought Walter might be the out of nowhere RB this week, but I’m downgrading him a bit to honorable mention for that label this week.

 -- Rex Burkhead (12-27-0, 3-27-0/3) got more workload again this week but did nothing with it because he’s a worse athlete (at this stage) than Austin Walter. Terrible O-Line and slow Rex…not a good combo for FF. This was also as good a matchup as a Houston RB could want…and you got little/nothing for it.

 -- Rookie TE Brevin Jordan (3-23-1/3) is getting a little more involved every week. He’s not great, but he’s something. He’s trying to be a TE2 that you could hope has a game flow go his way for a 4-5 catch game ahead or, like here, lucks in for a TD. Once Jordan Akins returns it might be a lid on Brevin’s output for now.

Jordan is a mediocre talent, but someone has to catch passes here.

 -- I’m not saying the Houston defense is good or anything but they’re not terrible. Just 17.0 PPG allowed the last three weeks.

DE Jonathan Greenard (2 tackles, 1 sack) has been on a sack tear all season, but now OLB Jacob Martin (2 tackles, 1 sack) is getting in on the sack party. Martin had just one sack his first 8 games of the season, but has had a sack in each of his last three games including two forced fumbles. He’s a good athlete that may be starting to ‘get it’.

 -- The player that really caught my attention here?

Nico Collins (2-28-0/5) looks really, really good running routes now. He looks confident and very quick…very quick for his size.

In the preseason, I was worried that he was going to be neutralized from upside due to his surroundings (Houston QB play), and that may be true for the next year or two – but that dude can move/play. He’s like a bigger Rashod Bateman all of a sudden…quick feet into short and medium routes. And he’s an end zone master…I’ve seen it in college and at the Senior Bowl…he’s 6’4” but moving around like he’s a 6’1” speedster. I’m back on board/interested in Collins for the future…to a point/price.

He may even hit in the next week or two for an FF-moment. He had two shots at TDs in this game. Tyrod threw him an interior slant for a 15+ yard score, but Collins got held on the play/developing route (and PI called). Later, Collins beat a double team to the end zone on a 30+ yarder floated to him, but Tyrod overthrew it by 3 yards.

There’s hope here all of a sudden.

Snap Counts of Interest:

47 = Cooks

37 = Collins

29 = Conley

34 = Ph Brown

34 = Brevin

30 = Tevin

23 = Ty J

16 = Walter

R.C. Fischer

FFM

30 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: 49ers 34, Vikings 26

The Vikings took a 14-7 lead in the early 2nd-quarter, and they looked pretty good to that point, and I was rejoicing in ‘knowing’ the Vikings would upset SF. The 49ers then took advantage of Vikings miscues to tie it up before the half, and then extended the lead in the 3rd-quarter…and the Vikings could never catch up, 49ers win and my assumptions of a Minny win dashed.

I would analyze this game as: Both teams are good/evenly matched. The Vikings won the first half. The 49ers won the 2nd-half. The Vikings had crucial turnovers to set up the 49ers, who ran a dominant 37/23 time of possession, and held off two chances in the last 5+ minutes for the Vikings to have a shot to tie up this game…and Minnesota just missed several chances to hit a TD for a potential tie at the end. The 49ers earned the win, but it was a pretty even matchup throughout.

San Francisco has won three in-a-row and four of their last 5 to jump to (6-5) and very much in the playoff race. They should get to 9 wins easily…10 wins possible, and 8 wins not totally out of the question. A mostly favorable schedule ahead with a chance to pass the Rams/kick the Rams out of the playoffs potentially Week 18.

Minnesota is the most inexplicable team in the NFL in 2021…they are (5-6) and could have won every game they lost. They could be (9-2) right now, but they could also be (3-8). All but one of their wins/losses have been by one score…and they’ve played in three OT games so far (1-2 in those). Every time they get going, they lose momentum via injury…just lost Dalvin Cook, had lost him prior, lost Patrick Peterson for a few games, lost Danielle Hunter for the season. They can’t get out of their own way. They do have three very winnable games ahead and should race to (8-6) and then a tough LAR-GB schedule Weeks 16-17 will determine their fate for the playoffs or not. We think they get to 9+ wins and possibly into the playoffs, but 9 wins is probably the exact number and they have no quality NFC wild card wins to count on. This SF loss could be devastating. They really need to beat the Rams Week 16.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- How long will Dalvin Cook (10-39-0, 6-64-0/7) be out? Early reports were two weeks down. But Mike Zimmer says day-to-day, but he’s also a known liar. Given they play Detroit this week, fair to say Cook will be off this week. Week 14 is a short week hosting PIT on TNF, so probably out there too. Week 15 hosting CHI, which Cook doesn’t need to be there for. So, I think this will be a minimum of two weeks, but very likely a three weeks absence.

Week 16 hosting LAR is their season, if they win their next three easy ones…so having Cook back for that is critical.

Alexander Mattison (7-21-1, 2-7-0/3) is the obvious RB1 hopeful fill-in (considering the easy schedule). But I think Kene Nwangwu (1-7-0, KR return TD) is the interesting sleeper – he’s going to see a bit more work now and he could be the shock of the football world as a limited touch, homerun hitter every touch guy.

He’s already one of the most dangerous players in the NFL – averaging 41.3 yards per kick return with 2 return scores on 8 total returns. He has two carries this season…for 8.0 yards per carry.

…and if Mattison goes down…Nwangwu is the main option remaining.

 -- The 49ers also lost their offense when Deebo Samuel (6-66-2, 1-12-0/4) went down. He’s supposed to be 1-2 weeks, but I bet he’s 2+ weeks. He seems to always go down with injury in-season, usually soft tissue related, and doesn’t come back fast, or tries and goes down gain…and out for more time. The 49ers have to take it easy, cautious, protective of him because he is their offense. The guy gets a handoff and NFL defenses are hit with a secret shockwave that incapacitates them and they watch Deebo run right by them. It’s the darndest thing. If I were the 49ers, I’d literally run every play as a jet sweep or handoff to Deebo.

The past two weeks Deebo has caught just 2 passes for 27 yards on 6 targets…a disaster for a #1 WR. However, inexplicably, Deebo has run the ball 19 times the past three games, for 181 yards and 4 TDs…a 9.5 yards per carry clip, and it all wasn’t one long run…it’s every run is a minimum of 5+ yards. His collapse as a WR1 or WR2 even is masked by this rushing TD spike out of nowhere.

Deebo has as many rushing TDs as Najee Harris does this season (5).

 -- In Deebo’s absence, the run game should be fine with Elijah Mitchell (27-133-1, 5-35-0/6) cementing his status as lead RB. I thought there might be some cause for Shanahan to split up touches with Jeff Wilson (2-5-0, 1-2-0/1) a little bit with a returning from finger surgery Mitchell for this one week…but, nope. Even more all-in with Mitchell.

This was a huge statement game. The statement being from Kyle Shanahan that Elijah Mitchell is his guy, no questions asked, and Jeff Wilson and Trey Sermon are all but meaningless when Mitchell is there.

Mitchell is now a top five RB1 in a time period where all the RB1 names are hurt or coming back from being hurt.

 -- With Deebo gone, you’d think Brandon Aiyuk (3-91-0/6) is going to push higher, as he’s been for weeks, but I’d be a bit hesitant to go too crazy. Aiyuk is a better #2 WR than a #1 WR…he will now see the top cover corner while Deebo is out. That should be fine v. SEA, but worrisome Week 14 with Chidobe Awuzie Week 15.

However, they might give Aiyuk some of those Deebo jet sweeps…and maybe the secret shockwave incapacitates defenses when Aiyuk is running them too?

The WR who is really gaining some low-key momentum is Jauan Jennings (2-24-1/3). Scored a TD here, but his one missed target was a 2nd TD catch that JJ landed about an inch out of bounds for a reversal and no score.

Jennings is a big catch radius, capable WR…just lacking in speed/athleticism but his big frame and good hands makes up for it to some degree. With Deebo out, Jennings may see more snaps/targets.

 -- When Dalvin Cook missed half a game with an injury Week 4, and then missed all of Week 5 – Kirk Cousins (20-32 for 238 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) struggled to put up numbers against Cleveland (Wk4, 203 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) and Detroit (Wk5, 275 yards, 1 TD/1 INT). it’s a small sample size, but typically the big stud RBs very much lift QBs up a notch. Cook gone, tends to put more downward pressure on Cousins.

Week 6 last season (2020), Cousins threw for 343 yards, 3 TDs/3 INTs and got upset by then winless Atlanta.

Week 14 at DET should be a safe space for Cousins to roll numbers without Cook, but we’ll see if recent history prevails in a Cousins struggle with turnovers while Cook is gone.

Snap Counts of Interest:

63 = Aiyuk

46 = Deebo

26 = J Jennings

20 = Sherfeld

49 = Mitchell

10 = J Wilson

29 = D Cook

22 = Mattison

02 = Nwangwu