Ross Jacobs

FFM

09 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Buccaneers 30, Falcons 17 

There really isn't much to say about these two teams at this point. They are two of the most consistent teams in the entire league. You know exactly what you're getting every week.

For Tampa, Tom Brady is going to stand in the pocket all day and pick you apart with whichever option is open on a given play. They are going to crush lesser teams and can battle with any of the better teams any given week. They have to be considered one of the Superbowl favorites, especially because of that consistency. Tampa doesn't seem to suffer through some of the ups and downs that, say, the Rams or Bills do. They have a simple game plan and they execute it thanks to the robotic precision of Brady.

It's honestly kind of the same thing in Atlanta, except the Falcons are incompetent instead of very good. They have the tools to field a good offense (Pitts and Patterson), but Matt Ryan is just pathetic to watch anymore. He's under pressure quite often, but even when he's not he just can't get the ball down the field anymore. The offense literally only scores points when Patterson does everything himself.

The Falcons only offensive TD here was their first drive of the game after, you guessed it, Cordarrelle Patterson broke a big run down the field. After that Arthur Smith moved away from using Patterson heavily because we can't have too much of a good thing, and the offense obviously faltered. Their only other TD would come right before halftime when Brady threw a screen pass while backed up near his own goalline and Marlon Davidson happened to be right in the path and snatched the ball for the easiest pick 6 ever.

That score made the game 20-17 at the half, but the result was never really in doubt as Tampa just sat back and let the Falcons bash their heads against a wall.

Tampa is now 9-3 and their destiny has been set in stone most of the year. There was never a real challenger for them in the NFC South. The schedule is pathetically easy after this last game against the Bills (and possibly the Saints). They are going to cruise to 12-14 wins and a high seed in the NFC. The only disaster scenario for the Bucs is if the Packers somehow snag the #1 overall seed because then Tom has to go away from home into the cold, his only real weakness. If Tampa or even Arizona gets the top seed then he can avoid the elements. Tampa is a machine and almost assuredly will at least make it to the NFC championship game.

The Falcons fall to 5-7 (somehow still 2nd place in the South) and have no real playoff chances no matter if the math says they can still make it. They have games remaining with the Bills, Saints, and 49'ers that should all be losses. They should get a win at home versus the Lions, and they have a tossup game this week at the Panthers. Most likely they finish with 6 or 7 wins (by some miracle) and are stuck in that middle ground between needing a complete rebuild and trying for a bottom tier playoff push in 2022.

My guess is they move on from Ryan this off-season and start the rebuild with a rookie QB sitting behind some new veteran. The only real foundational piece they have on offense is Pitts (Patterson is great but already 31), and the defense doesn't have much going for it either. There's no clear path for Atlanta to build this thing back up, and it looks to me like they'll be stuck in no man's land for the next 3-4 season minimum.

Fantasy Notes

--Unfortunately I have no real fantasy insights from this game. What you see is what you get. Brady is going to get Evans, Godwin, Gronk, and Fournette stats every week while running up his own stats.

--Breshad Perriman has already been elevated over Tyler Johnson for snaps, but it doesn't mean anything for fantasy. Tom peeked his way a couple of times, but there was no purposeful move to get Perriman the ball. He'll probably catch an errant bomb TD one of these days, but good luck guessing when. The 3rd WR spot doesn't matter unless/until Antonio Brown comes back.

--Speaking of Brown, I'm starting to think he might not come back, although there's still hope as the team hasn't already cut him which you'd think would be the logical move after the news broke about his fake vaccine card. What the team likely wants to do is hang onto him for the playoffs, let him get healthy for the playoff run, and then release him after the season is over. Either way I wouldn't expect him back until after the fantasy season is done.

It's a rough ending for what looked like a promising season early on. As an AB drafter myself, I feel everyone's pain.

*RC NOTE: Even if he does return Week 16…would you rush him right back into your lineups his first week back? If not, if in doubt…then we’re holding AB right now clogging up a roster spot for the hopes he’s amazing Week 17? 

--I'm done with Kyle Pitts for the moment. The talent is undeniable, but if he couldn't get numbers here it's just not going to happen. My issue for weeks was that teams were double teaming him, mostly in man coverage, but the Bucs just ran a soft zone all day and weren't even worried about Pitts and Ryan still couldn't find him wide open in the secondary.

As usual, Pitts looked like he was going to have a big day coming in the 2nd quarter, but then he was inexplicably ignored after that. It's a coaching and QB issue is all I can say. I'm moving on and I recommend everyone else do so if you haven't already. If you've got room on your bench maybe you can stash him and hope for a turn in the final weeks, but I see no reason to expect that at this point.

--I legitimately have no idea how Russell Gage (11-130-0/12) ended up with 11 catches for 130 yards. It did not remotely seem like he was doing that while watching live. About half of those catches were garbage time drives in the two-minute drives, but you'll take it. This was probably an abnormal spike, but as I've mentioned before, Gage is a very overlooked ppr option at WR right now due to how bad this offense is. I'd treat him as a WR 2-2.5 for now.

Snap Counts of Interest

67 = Kyle Pitts

54 = Tajae Sharpe

53 = Russell Gage

43 = Olamide Zaccheaus

65 = Mike Evans

64 = Chris Godwin

59 = Breshad Perriman

9 = Tyler Johnson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

09 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Chargers 41, Bengals 22

Big win for the Chargers!

And I’m not impressed at all.

The Chargers raced out to a 24-0 lead, getting several breaks along the way and then Cincy watching one of their top defenders get carted off (Logan Wilson)…it was just NOT the Bengals’ day. It looked like it might be 50-0 Chargers by halftime.

And then the next thing you know the Bengals are mounting a comeback, cutting the game to 24-22 despite Burrow throwing the ball with 4 good fingers and 1 bad one. It was an embarrassing display by LAC…one of the worst performing teams in the NFL, considering all their talent. They let an injured, bewildered Cincy team waltz right back in this game that they had them down by 24-zip in.

As the Bengals were about to take the lead, in the 3rd-quarter (potentially), there was an Mixon fumble that went right to a speeding LAC defender who grabbed and kept running and that kinda broke the momentum. LAC scored another TD soon after to put it out of reach. The Bengals kept fighting…they just dug themselves so many holes, and Burrow wasn’t 100%.

If they played this game again with a healthy Burrow…I’d take Cincinnati without hesitation. The Bengals are a better executing, tougher team than the Chargers. The Chargers have more talent, the Bengals have more grit and heart.

The Chargers get a win to jump to (7-5). Facing NYG this week and HOU Week 16…LAC should have 9 wins in the bag. They just need one win vs. KC-LV-DEN to get to 10 wins and a wild card. They should do that. Week 15 they face KC in a game where the winner has control of the division…the game at LA on TNF. That’s going to be a great watch…I’m not sure which sadder, underperforming team will win – LAC or KC. I hope LAC, but I assume KC.

This loss hurt Cincy, now (7-5)…with a win they could’ve taken over 1st-place in the AFC North. No easy games ahead for Cincy, and now Burrow with a sore hand…if the Bengals can slip by SF this week, I think they can take the AFC North at 9 wins, possibly getting to 10 wins to lock it up. But Baltimore still looms large at 8 wins…but the Ravens could seriously lose out with their schedule.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’m worried about Joe Burrow’s (24-40 for 300 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) hand for Week 14. Hell, I’m not sure he’s even going to be able to play Week 14.

I will say this – Burrow is one tough son of a bitch. He took his battered hand out there series after series and gave it all he had. He tried taping his fingers, and just ripped it off and threw it away. Ditto trying a glove. He just went out and took hit after hit and dove headfirst into tacklers on running plays, etc., trying to will this team to victory. 11 QB hits. 6 sacks. Shaking his hand off to try and shake away the pain in-between plays most of the 2nd-half. It was a tough day at the office for Burrow.

And he almost pulled off the win too.

Burrow was not able to put all the mustard on the ball he could but then he just switched gears to throwing softer with anticipation of where the receiver would be versus firing rockets. One of the low key most impressive QB performances of 2021.

I know Justin Herbert (26-35 for 317 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) is bigger physically, with a bigger arm, and plays in super cool LA and in a dome…he’s fantastic and the better Fantasy asset, but he ain’t a better QB/football player than Joe Burrow.

Burrow probably should take a week off, but I suspect we’ll see Burrow out there Week 14 because he’s a gamer.

If Brandon Allen does play instead of Burrow, just know he isn’t a bad QB at all. There’s a drop off but it’s not like a Jake Fromm, etc., nightmare. Allen is very capable.

 -- Everything about this game could be summed up on a play early in this game…

The Bengals down a couple scores and a bit shell shocked right away, and then Burrow unleashed a bomb on the money, in stride to Ja’Marr Chase (5-52-0/8) with him having a 2-yard lead on the CB to catch it in stride and race for the score. Chase clutched it, tried accelerating too soon, bobbled the ball out of his clutches…bobbled it right to the cornerback like he was soft tossing it to him – a 50+ yard TD strike turned interception. That’s the kind of day it was for the Bengals.

I’m telling you the Bengals were the better team here. Don’t get down on Cincy and don’t think LAC is ‘fixed’ from this game.

 -- Tee Higgins (9-138-/14) is becoming Burrow’s go-to, because Joey B. is not dumb. He knows who can catch the ball.

Last two games for Higgins: 7.5 rec. (11.0 targets), 126.0 yards, 1.0 TDs per game.

 -- Justin Herbert may be without his top two WRs Week 14, due to COVID. Who will he turn to in a worst-case scenario (both out)?

Jalen Guyton (4-90-1/4) has been the #3 WR all season, so he has the time/relationship…and he had a nice FF game here – but it was bolstered by a jump ball, 50/50 heave by Herbert…to Guyton for some reason, who actually got position on the DB, and the CB mistimed the incoming pass, and Guyton wound up with it in his hands already in the end zone for a 44-yard score. That type of thing isn’t normal for Guyton.

Josh Palmer (0-0-0/1) is CLEARLY the better WR but he’s a mostly ignored #4 WR. However, they can’t ignore him if Allen-Williams are gone. I like Palmer to emerge with the better FF game, if the nightmare scenario happens…but that’s a gamble not a guarantee.

The reality is, it would probably mean more catches spread to the TEs and Guyton may get another homerun ball TD, but Palmer leads in catches with no TDs. It’s a gamble on what really will happen, there’s no precedent for it.

Side note: Mike Williams (5-110-0/7) continues to be the most physically dominant WR of 2021. How his numbers are not double what they are is an indictment of this fledgling O-C.

 -- Justin Jackson (6-15-0) got a lot of touches for a #2 RB…he’s today’s ‘handcuff’ for Ekeler. We’ll see who it is tomorrow. The fact that LAC isn’t scouring for veteran RBs or poaching them off practice sqauds, so that they don’t burn out Ekeler…it just shows the negligence the team is being run with.

If they are done with Josh Kelley, and Rountree/Bradwell are nothing, and JJax is always hurt…then they could go to the Saints and pluck Josh Adams away. They could go to the Panthers and snatch Reggie Bonnafon, to name a few…do something…anything but stick with the fledgling lot they’ve been rotating all season. Do they want to win the AFC West or not? What if Ekeler goes down?

LAC is going to blow a golden opportunity to win the West because of bad management blowing this very good roster.

 -- The Bengals lost Logan Wilson for the season in this game, a huge blow…the linebacker leader. Germaine Pratt (9 tackles) is probably the ‘winner’ for more snaps/playing time in his stead. Joe Bachie 9 tackles) might kinda come out of nowhere to play a lot more snaps.

 -- I like the LAC-DST schedule ahead, but is this a good defense to try and rely on?

This defense is…

#7 best in pass yards per game allowed

#6t in passing TDs allowed

#17 in sacks

#6 in QB pressures

Their problem is…

#31 in rushing yards per game allowed

#28 in rush ypc allowed

#30 in rushing TDs allowed

#31 (worst) in missed tackles

Hard to pass on/good pass defense metrics, somewhat due to teams bypassing the air and just attacking them via the ground. But they’re much improved against the run the past 4 weeks as guys get healthy, and they make changes.

You know what their biggest issue is? They have not faced a team with a current losing record this season. The Giants (4-8) Week 14 will be their easiest matchup of 2021…14 weeks into the season. It’s like some of your FF teams that scored high but constantly played the week’s top scoring teams and you wound up scrambling to get into the playoffs, or out of the playoffs…all due to schedule. Schedule has a lot to do with all the metrics and analysis in football, but it’s rarely broached…instead, all data is lumped in the same/equal weight by opponent most often.

LAC-DST gets NYG Week 14, HOU Week 16, and DEN Week 17…those are all good matchups…especially if Jake Fromm and Davis Mills Weeks 14 and 16. That’s why I’m pushing this defense…gambling blind a bit – we don’t know how they’ll do with easier matchups.

LAC-DST held down WSH Week 1. Did fairly well vs. DEN Week 12. Just 14pts allowed to LV Week 4. Gave up 37 points to PIT on SNF Week 11 but allowed just 300 total yards in a fluke fest for PIT scoring.

I believe there is DST hope here with LAC, but I will be holding my breath like the rest of us watching them in my starting lineup.

Snap Counts of Interest:

73 = Chase

60 = Tee H

57 = Boyd

56 = Big Mike

53 = Keenan

34 = Guyton

22 = J Palmer

35 = J Cook

22 = Stv Anderson

16 = Parham

16 = McKitty

47 = Ekeler

16 = JJax

02 = Kelley

R.C. Fischer

FFM

09 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Cardinals 33, Bears 22

I don’t think anyone is shocked the Cardinals handled the Bears, but what I was impressed with was – the Cardinals go to cold, windy, rainy Chicago with Kyler and DeAndre just returning from injuries where they were ‘questionable’ all week and not practicing in full…and they just came back out and didn’t miss a beat, especially Kyler.

Kyler was on his game, in bad conditions, and the Arizona defense toyed with Chicago (relaxing up some 2nd-half). The best football team I see week-in-and-week-out is the Arizona Cardinals…and Kyler has to be a top 3 contender for MVP.

Arizona, Green Bay, and fully healthy Dallas are the best three teams in the league, in my eyes…with Kansas City as the only AFC challenger, not because KC is playing well but because they are the most dangerous sleeping dog in all the league – their defense is rising up and they are a tweak away on offense from being the AFC Super Bowl rep (that will probably get killed by the NFC rep.).

Arizona is (10-2) and they have three really tough games ahead…Week 14 v. LAR, Week 16 v. IND, Week 17 at DAL. That’s probably the three best offensive lines in football. If Arizona sweeps them, then there is no doubt they are the best team in the NFL. Win two out of the 3, and they’re probably the best team. Lose all three, and it’s time for a new best team in football nominee.

We project that Arizona finishes (14-3) and fights Green Bay (who they’ve lost to) for the #1 seed/bye in the NFC.

Chicago falls to (4-8) with the entire city/fanbase taking a break from chanting ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ to chanting ‘Fire Nagy’ at various venues. I think Nagy will get the axe after a Week 14 loss at Green Bay, because (today, technically) the Bears could win out and have a shot at a wild card. I guess you give Nagy that chance, then when they lose to GB this week the wild card is over and you can fire him before that Week 15 MNF game, so there are no chants in a half-empty stadium on national cable television. Put the guy out of his misery, spare his family, let him go, if you have a heart, Virginia McCaskey.

The Bears will finish with 4-5 wins, a bottom 10 standing, a top 10 NFL Draft pick…which goes right over to the NY Giants for their 2021 trade up for Justin Fields. These are bad times for the Bears fans living among us.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I was shocked to see Kyler Murray (11-15 for 123 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs, 10-59-2) jump right back in, on a sloppy field, and just throw and run the ball like he hadn’t missed any time and was playing on a clean field.

With this performance, Kyler pulls ahead of Tom Brady for highest PPG (4pts per pass TD) Fantasy scoring QB in Fantasy. You know where he ranked a year ago? #1…just ahead of Patrick Mahomes.

Right now, the best QB in all of Fantasy…is a 5’10” guy that NFL people thought Dwayne Haskins and Daniel Jones were better then.

 -- DeAndre Hopkins (2-32-1/2) was very questionable all week, but he started and played 74% of the snaps and caught a fantastic TD bomb from Kyler early to set the tone.

Hopkins is a top 3 WR talent in the NFL but is only a WR2 for FF in 2021…not because of any talent fall-off, but more Kyler has so many options and does not lean on just one, which is another reason why he’s becoming the best FF QB in the game as well…he has the most options and he uses them with telegraphing the same looks, throws, receivers...he changes up things series to series masterfully -- might go heavy TE because you're giving it to him, then the defense adjusts, so he switches that up to go after a WR matchup that he likes. He's really doing a masterful job as an NFL QB mind with Mahomes-like ability, or better, to deliver the ball.

 -- Rondale Moore (1-8-0/2) did not have a follow up moment from his last game with 11 targets/11 catches. As expected, that was just a McCoy thing of the moment in that particular Week 11 game. Moore is the #4 WR here right now, and #5-6 in the pecking order of the offense. 2021 is not his time for Fantasy.

2022 will likely see Christian Kirk gone in free agency and A.J. Green back in a further diminished capacity or retired. Then it will be Rondale time, more likely…2022+.  

 -- On the best offense he’s played on, James Conner (20-75-0, 2-36-1/2) is averaging a career low 3.8 yards per carry…because, of course he does.

His ineffectiveness doesn’t matter, as this offense constantly sets him up for short TDs…14 TDs and counting, so far. God love him…but I don’t. He hurts my soul every time he scores another cheap TD. Blame this offense, it’s so very good right now.

When Chase Edmonds comes back…who FF-cares? Might be Week 14, might not. He’s a ‘cuff for Conner, no more, no less. He should see more touches in these big showdowns Arizona has coming up (DAL, IND) but the RB coach is friends with Conner, so…

 -- Jakeem Grant (5-62-1/7) did that thing again…the thing where he works like a quasi-Tyreek Hill and makes everyone wonder why he doesn’t get more touches? The 1-2 punch of that is…has a game like this, looks really good…and then next week he’ll have one catch on 3 targets. It’s not his fault.

Just think, Miami traded him away midseason…so they could roster Isaiah Ford. NFL personnel stupidity knows no bounds.

I hope this is the start of something for Jakeem, but I know it isn’t.

 -- Cole Kmet (3-41-0/7) is continuing to get good targets…6 or more targets in a game in five of his last 6 games. The catches, the targets, the yards are all OK/improving…just no TDs this season, and none in sight.  

 -- Darnell Mooney (5-27-0/7) took a break from his great FF numbers of late. Not his fault…it was rainy, sloppy and the Arizona defense is not to be trifled with. Tough match up with the GB secondary Week 14.

 -- Speaking of the Arizona defense. What do we do with the Cardinals-DST now?

Week 14 = v. the Rams…this is not the worst, but it’s not favorable. The Rams have a top five O-Line.

Week 15 = at Detroit…an obvious play

Week 16 = v. Indianapolis…again, not the worst matchup for such a defense as Arizona, but this is a top five O-Line. Not good for DST scoring.

Week 17 = at Dallas…another top five O-Line, not a good matchup.

You can’t use Arizona-DST with confidence in three of the next 4 weeks. For those in the playoffs, with a bye, skipping to Week 16-17…you can’t use them. You have to replace them with something better if it’s out there.

 -- Matt Prater (2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs) enjoys having Kyler back…

1.0 FGs attempted per game = Weeks 9-12 with Kyler out

2.1 FGs attempted per game = All the games with Kyler in 2021

2.1 XPs made per game = Weeks 9-12 with Kyler out

3.7 XPs made per game = All the games with Kyler in 2021

Prater’s schedule is awesome the rest of the way:

Week 14 = home/dome v. LAR

Week 15 = dome at DET

Week 16 = home/dome v. Indy

Week 17 = dome at DAL

Week 18 = home/dome v. SEA

Five dome matchups the final 5 games…you can’t beat that.

Snap Counts of Interest:

72 = Mooney

65 = Byrd

48 = JK Grant

10 = Rodney Adams

55 = Kmet

21 = J Graham

39 = Hopkins

36 = AJ Green

32 = Kirk

23 = Rondale

11 = Wesley

R.C. Fischer

FFM

08 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Washington 17, Raiders 15

I don’t know how they did it, but the Raiders pulled out another win by the same exact score/luck the last two weeks, a pair of 17-15 wins and a 4-game win streak.

I don’t know why they do it, but the Raiders lose every big game they’re in later in the season and botch their playoff chances right around the last quarter of the season for the past three seasons…and here they are again.

These two teams tried to out-running back each other while hoping their QB didn’t screw up and their defenses out-hustled the other. Washington got the better RB play, QB play, and about even on defense in this game – but they got the late game field goal to pull it out in the end. There are two ‘C’ teams that can give any team a run and also lose to most any team. They clashed here, and Washington won this one…would be 50-50 if they played it 100 times.

Washington has pulled themselves up to .500 (6-6) and can really throw a grenade into the NFC East beating Dallas this week. I’ll take Dallas, however…and we expect Washington to finish with 8 wins (which I need to happen to ‘push’ my over/under preseason win total bet). Nine wins is not out of the question. In no way is Washington a better team, a better representative to have the NFC East title over Dallas…but anything is possible in the NFL. One injury to a team can change everything. We project Washington to 8 wins and out of the playoffs, and out of the playoffs even if they get to 9 wins.

Las Vegas blows a golden opportunity, at home to an opponent they should have taken down at this stage of the season. They fall to .500 (6-6) and the AFC West title daydream is dead, and now the playoff dream is slipping away. We see the Raiders finishing (8-9) and out of the playoffs, last place in the AFC West.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The biggest FF news from this game is all the issues with both teams' tight ends…

Logan Thomas (3-48-1/5) looked so good in his return, and had a sweet TD catch in this game…but later got his ACL/MCL clipped and he’s likely out for the season. A guy I put a lot of redraft teams together with as a key mid-round value pick at TE…and I lost him Week 4, for 7 games, and now I’ve lost him again.

This is Fantasy Football…constantly working around injuries. Just like the NFL teams have to.

Ricky Seals-Jones was working nicely as a Logan fill-in but then he got hurt. Since them rookie John Bates (3-42-0/4) has started establishing himself. My projection ahead would be: Bates and RSJ split themselves up into TE2s. But if RSJ can’t go this week, Bates is a TE1.5 with hopes of a TD to get to TE1.

Logan Thomas essentially played 5 games this season, his 16-game (I know it’s 17 now but I’m not mentally used to those tallies) projection off his 5 games:

55+ catches, 600+ yards, 9+ TDs. Would have been TE1 work.

Might have led all TEs in TDs this season…

Sad.

Darren Waller (DNP) is out with an injury and hopes to be back Week 14 for the KC game. I think that it is 60/40 he does NOT play, and Foster Moreau (1-34-0/3) gets another full start.

Moreau has been FF-good starting in place of Waller, but he gave up an FF-dud here. Not his fault. He was barely targeted as Las Vegas only runs plays to Josh Jacobs (13-52-1, 9-30-0/9) and Hunter Renfrow (9-102-0/10) now…and then randomly everyone else sees an errant opportunity.

If Moreau starts Week 14 with Waller out…he’s a TE1 threat again.

 -- Hunter Renfrow is a secure WR1 now on volume…7.0 rec. on 8.2 targets per game the past 6 games with back-to-back 100+ yard games the past two weeks.

  -- Josh Jacobs is an RB1 now…as suddenly he’s Vegas’s new Christian McCaffrey…5.3 rec. on 7.0 targets per game the past four games. Kenyan Drake out for the season in this game has only poured accelerant on Jacobs’ rise in the passing game.

 -- Antonio Gibson is an RB1 in the same manner Jacobs is, the Football Team’s new Christian McCaffrey. 6.0 catches on 6.0 targets per game the past two weeks with J.D. McKissic hurt. And averaging 23.3 carries per game on a fractured shin.

All Gibson’s output per touch is very low, but he’s getting enough touches to make up for it for nice FF scoring…especially PPR. That PPR booster may change with McKissic back, but the carries won’t dip.

 -- Terry McLaurin’s (3-22-0/5) last 5 games: 4.2 rec. (6.8 targets), 51.4 yards, 0.20 TDs per game…a WR3. The Taylor Heinicke effect.

 -- Curtis Samuel (2-0-0, 1-0-0/1) is also getting dragged down by Heinicke. More carries than targets…I’m ‘done’ with him for 2021 if I see better bench/sit-on sleeper options in redraft.

 -- Raiders IDP notes…

Rookie LB Divine Deablo (11 tackles), yes that’s his name, played a bunch of snaps because Cory Littleton got hurt. Deablo looked like you’d expect, if you were familiar with him from college – a college safety trying to play linebacker in the NFL (for the first time in-season). He was lost in coverage a few times and may have cost them the game in a low-key way…just too inexperienced but got thrown into the deep end of the pool to try to figure out how to swim here.

The Raiders signed veteran LB Tom Compton Monday…which tells me Littleton may be missing time-hurt.

Rookie DE Malcolm Koonce (1 tackle, 1.0 sacks) played his first 7 snaps of the season. I can tell you this from those 7 snaps – he’s one of the best pass rush prospects from this draft, possibly as good as ‘the best’ pass rusher.

When I first saw him prepping for the Senior Bowl, I was like ‘wow’. He had a mild injury to deal with to begin 2021, so he missed the Senior Bowl, and got lost in the no-Combine 2021 shuffle…but wound up a shock #79 pick by the Raiders. Mayock saw what I saw and didn’t wanna wait until day 3 to try and get him.

He will race up the Dynasty Stash next rankings update. All I needed to see were these 7 snaps…wow.

 -- Is the Washington-DST FINALLY a legit DST play now? They’ve allowed 17-19-21-15-15 points in a game the past 5 games, so I’d say…yes.

Thanks a lot…only 7 weeks too late for me loving them in the preseason. So glad I ‘stumbled’ into Arizona after Weeks 1-2, where Washington was burning me.

I did not realize all they needed to have happen was Chase Young, Montez Sweat, and Landon Collins to go down and then they’d be good. My bad.

Snap Counts of Interest:

54 = Renfrow

51 = Zay J

40 = Bry Edwards

24 = DJax

55 = Ant Gibson

05 = Smallwood

04 = Patterson

Ross Jacobs

FFM

08 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Cowboys 27, Saints 17

Where to begin with this one?

The easy narrative that the mainstream is running with is that the Cowboys spanked the Saints in large part because Taysom Hill isn't a real QB. Of course they have to stick with that story because it's what fits their Jameis Winston narrative. Can't have people running off thinking that Taysom is far more effective than our beloved Jameis now can we?

What actually happened is far different.

The Cowboys struck first on offense, but the Saints quickly equalized. It was obvious from the get-go that Taysom should have been starting for the Saints all year. He provides a spark with his legs that New Orleans has been desperately needing. Of course, genius that he is, every time Taysom would string together a great drive running the ball, Sean Payton would suddenly throw 3 times in quick succession to WR's that can't get open and voila the drive would evaporate.

This was in addition to the fact that Taysom hurt his middle finger on his throwing hand very early in the game and was obviously struggling to throw the ball as effectively as usual. Did that stop Payton from attempting 41 passes while his QB was tearing up the Cowboys on the ground? Absolutely not.

This game was only 13-7 Cowboys at the half despite a couple of interceptions by Taysom. He would throw 4 in the game, and again the media makes it sound like they were all his fault, all terrible throws that no respectable starting QB would make, but that couldn't be farther from the truth. In reality only 1 or 2 were really Taysom's fault, and at least one he was essentially forced to throw late in the game into coverage simply trying to make a play. Do not for a second believe that he threw 4 bad picks on his own. This was a mix of bad luck, bad WR's, a bad game plan, and an injured finger. Taysom is fine and should absolutely remain the starting QB.

Despite everything going against Taysom and the Saints, they still had chances until late in the game. Eventually Tony Pollard broke a long run for a touchdown that gave Dallas a comfortable lead. A Taysom interception that happened to go straight to a defensive lineman rolling out was returned for a score and it was too much for the Saints to overcome. Without all the BS that held the Saints back I'd say they were actually the better team. Do not count them out if Taysom continues to start and is healthy.

Dallas lucks their way to an 8-4 record and are trying to hold off surging Philadelphia and Washington. The Cowboys still have Arizona to contend with in addition to the Giants, Eagles, and Washington twice. Those divisional games will decide the ultimate winner. If Dallas loses this week to Washington all hell is going to break loose and who knows how it will end.

The Saints fall to 5-7 but aren't out of the playoffs yet. They have 3 easy games that they should win against the Jets, Panthers, and Falcons along with two more games against the Dolphins and Bucs. If they can win all 3 of the easy games and split the other two 1-1, they'll be sitting at 9-8 with an outside chance of a wildcard spot. Lose any of those games though and they are likely done.

Fantasy Notes

--So the most important fantasy question from this game is obviously Taysom's health and viability moving forward. As far as his effectiveness as a fantasy QB, there's nothing to worry about. You see what he can do on the ground. He's a QB1 if he's healthy and starting, a Jalen Hurts-alike. Taysom could have run for 200 yards here if Payton didn't have his head up his ass.

Health is a different question. We still have to monitor the situation closely, but as best I can tell Taysom is going to try to play through the injury. So what is the exact injury and should we be scared of it?

Taysom has what is called a “mallett finger” injury, the same injury that Russell Wilson suffered earlier this year. The tip of the finger gets bent forward and it cannot be straightened because the ligament is stretched or torn. The hand will also be quite swollen and painful.

In Taysom's case, he won't require surgery because the damage isn't nearly as bad as Wilson's was. He played the entire game with the fresh injury after all. The trouble is, he isn't going to be able to grip the ball like normal. You saw how his accuracy was off during the Dallas game. He'll likely be dealing with more of the same, although with some time off to rest it and a proper splint or tape job, he might be a bit better off.

The Saints also have all week to work on a run-heavy gameplan, and I have to imagine that's the direction they take, limiting Taysom's passing as much as possible or giving him lots of short passes and screens to work with. Playing the Jets they likely don't have to do too much, just control the clock and target 20-23 points or so.

I think you can play Taysom this week barring a change in his diagnosis. Don't expect heavy passing volume though. Very likely he'll only throw 20-25 passes or so and should come in at or under 200 yards passing. What we're hoping for is 50+ yards rushing which should be easily attainable and maybe two touchdowns total. Doing that he could still hit 20 points for the game in 4-point leagues. Continue to follow any developments with the injury, but my best guess is he's going to play and be effective enough as a runner to finish as a QB1.

--Deonte Harris (4-96-1/8) will be suspended the next 3 games due to a DUI from this past summer. Harris appealed the suspension and was unsuccessful. This is a painful time to get hit with it as he has been establishing himself as the top target for New Orleans and their only genuine playmaker.

--With Harris suspended and Kenny Stills getting cut (finally), somebody is going to get some targets. My best guess is Tre'Quan Smith will be the “beneficiary” for what that's worth. Even as the default #1 WR though he's still probably a WR3-4 at best. If you're desperate that's where I'd go, but don't count on anything big happening here.

--Good news for Alvin Kamara owners, the RB should be back this week against the Jets. The Saints have been staying cautious with his knee injury, but he got in multiple limited practices last week and is expected to return this week. The Jets are a sweet spot to come back, and with Taysom's injury I think we can expect a good bit of Kamara including some nice ppr work.

--Oh no, Ezekiel Elliott (13-45-0, 2-2-0/3) only averaged 3.5 ypc again! The sky is falling! Tony Pollard (7-71-0, 2-3-0/4) is obviously so much better! Take out the one broken play where Pollard was nearly tackled for a loss but broke open on the edge for 58 yards, and he got 13 yards on his other 6 carries. The Saints simply have a very good run defense.

I'm holding fast in my stance from last week: there's nothing wrong with Zeke, nothing major anyways. Both backs were ineffective while Tyron Smith was out for a month, but now Smith is back, Zeke is still taking two thirds of the carries, and he won't be facing a very tough New Orleans run defense this week. Washington is no pushover certainly, their run defense has been trending up, but I'd say this is a middle of the pack matchup.

I think Zeke takes a good workload, 15-18 carries for a bit over 4 yards per carry, so maybe somewhere in the 65-80 yard range, with 3 or 4 catches and a good shot at a TD or two. It doesn't sound sexy, but those are solid numbers for fantasy. If he fails again here at Washington, then we might have a problem, but I really don't think that's the case.

Snap Counts of Interest

45 = Ezekiel Elliott

28 = Tony Pollard

48 = Marquez Callaway

47 = Tre'Quan Smith

36 = Ty Montgomery

30 = Lil'Jordan Humphrey

R.C. Fischer

FFM

08 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Lions 29, Vikings 27

It was bound to happen. The Lions are too good a bad team to not win a game. They should’ve won 3-4-5 games by now…they’ve been so close. They earned this win. They took a 20-6 lead into halftime, almost blew it (again), falling behind 27-23 with 1:50 remaining -- but a gritty/lucky last drive and 4th & goal with no time left…a TD and a win. Good for them.

Minnesota took this game for granted, had some bad turnovers to dig a hole early, but then roared back…only to lose on the very last play of the game. The Vikings were OK this game, just missing three key defenders then losing Adam Thielen right away – but still this came down to Detroit wanting it more, and the Lions being way better than their record showed.

Detroit can beat Atlanta Week 16 and get to two wins and a tie, which would potentially/likely throw Houston or Jacksonville back into the mix for the #1 pick in the draft. Detroit should tank the rest of the season for the #1 pick, but Dan Campbell believes strongly in moral victories (that players will forget about within 24 hours of any).

Minnesota butchers a chance to get to .500, instead falling to (5-7) and creeping closer to out of the playoffs and firing Mike Zimmer by season’s end. The playoffs are the only thing that can save Zimmer now…and I’m not sure that will either unless they make a run. The Vikings SHOULD get to 9 wins and have a wild card shot. Week 16 v. LAR is a must-win for the playoff run/tiebreaker holds or help. Minnesota has no real wild card tie breaking help wins this season to date.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- No Dalvin Cook here, which leads to these three Vikings’ RB notes…

1) When Alexander Mattison (22-90-1, 3-34-0/3) gets these no-Cook starts, I really cannot tell the difference in the offense with either starting. Minny doesn’t miss a beat, really. Cook is better, but for the NFL price…

As long as Mattison is starting without Cook, he’s an easy RB1 projection.

2) Dalvin Cook will not be back Week 14, more likely Week 15…but that’s not a sure thing either. He has some serious issues…and what if the Vikings lose this week and the season is about over?

Week 15 at CHI is not a desperate need for Cook to be back anyway. My guess is Cook will be active for emergency Week 15 – but return in full Week 16 v. LAR, since that game is basically the season.

3) Kene Nwangwu (2-0-0, 2-4-0/3) was much more involved, and better involved than I realized during the live watch. He was in taking touches on the 1st-series. He was taking touches and/or on the field most every series, at least for a snap during each series.

He didn’t do much with his touches, but note that he had a decent 5+ yard run called back on penalty, and he got a straight up handoff for a 2-point conversion…that got stuffed. Had this game opened up a bit more, I think Nwangwu would have seen 10+ touches. Had Nwangwu popped a little on one of the touches he got, he might have seen more touches.

Still is a sleeper hope Week 14, but it's a deep sleeper.

 -- MVP of this game for Minnesota, not named Justin Jefferson..? Tyler Conklin (7-56-0/9). That was the best game I’ve seen him play, as a receiver.

2nd most targets of any Vikings receiver in this game, with 9. Adam Thielen out early, and Conklin has his best targeting of his career. Well, if that’s a causal situation…Thielen will be out again Week 14. Could be another sweet week for Conklin.

Conklin did catch a TD in this game, but his second foot came down an inch out of bounds…or he would have really lit it up for FF.

 -- I’m all about K.J. Osborn (4-47-1/7) as a WR3 with upside Week 14 with Thielen out as well. KJO’s best targeting since Week 6.

Osborn played 92% of the snaps in this game. He normally plays 40-60%. He’s played two games in 2021 with 80%+ snap share…Weeks 14 and Week 1. His average outputs in those games:

5.5 rec. (8.0 targets), 61.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game.

The Steelers are not a top defense in the NFL anymore, especially with Joe Haden out…which he is trending to be again this week – which is more good news for a KJO play.

Osborn is not just ‘meh’ who now has to play more…he’s a very solid WR, and decent for FF purposes. His first two weeks of the season to get a flavor of him with elevated targets: https://youtu.be/uawUINmvu_c

 -- I like what I see of Josh Reynolds (4-69-0/7) as well, speaking of WR3 upside plays for Week 14. He’s definitely Jared Goff’s preferred look among the WRs. Reynolds has nice movement skills and has good hands…he can be the de facto #1 WR for the Lions, and thus produces for FF.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (10-86-1/12) had a big game, but a good chunk of that in the hurry up with less than a minute to play. In the first 59 minutes of this game, Amon-Ra had 6 catches for 47 yards on 7 targets…his typical dull self. But then Goff started chopping down the field on underneath passes to prevent uncovered St. Brown and his numbers doubled in the final minute. On purpose, St. Brown is not a thing.

 -- Godwin Igwebuike (2-8-0, 1-13-0/2) was the better Lions backup RB over Jermar Jefferson (5-18-0, 0-0-0/1)…and Iggy was taking touches later in this game as part of the comeback effort. He just makes things happen. Had a big catch and run 1st-down to keep a drive going later in this game. He deserves more touches, but you can see by his stat line they aren’t really happening yet.

Kene Nwangwu got way better treatment as a #2 back in this game than Jefferson or Igwebuike.

 -- Blake Lynch (9 tackles, 2 sacks) had a decent game filling in for missing Barr-Kendricks…a key reason why the Vikings lost, no Barr, Kendricks, or Peterson…three of their best defenders. Lynch had a moment, but the moment is gone with all those guys back for Week 14. I didn’t detect anything special from the tape on Lynch, didn’t stand out to me…maybe I just missed it.

Snap Counts of Interest:

69 = St. Brown

60 = JReyn

35 = Kalif R.

34 = Jamaal W

28 = Igwebuike

08 = J Jefferson

70 = Osborn

69 = J Jefferson

32 =Westbrook

06 = Thielen

65 = Mattison

09 = Nwangwu…2 carries, 3 targets, one 2-point touch…on his 9 snaps. That’s a good sign. 

Ross Jacobs

FFM

07 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Chiefs 22, Broncos 9

The first two drives for Kansas City looked like business as usual. They drove right down the field and scored a TD and a FG for a quick 10-0 lead. And then things just kind of fizzled...the Chiefs would only score two more FG's on their own. Their last 9 points were off of turnovers by Denver.

I know most of FFM is as heavily invested in this offense as I am, and it's been hell watching Mahomes and company struggle to put up points for over a month now. We got the one great game against the Raiders and collectively assumed that all was right with the world. Turns out it's not.

So what's holding back the KC offense? The same thing that's been bothering them for the past month. Sketchy blocking, penalties, drops, a few inaccuracies from Mahomes, an underrated opponent, and teams playing deep coverage. A lot of these issues KC can fix themselves. The blocking and penalties for example. If they could just clean those up a bit the offense would seem more normal.

Drops have also been an issue, particularly by Tyreek Hill. Not trying to pick on one of the best receivers in the game, but he's been looking a lot like the 2020 version of Diontae Johnson in that department. Of course, this year DJ has barely dropped anything. It's very likely just a temporary issue or perhaps something Hill needs to address, but regardless it is holding the offense back at the moment. Drops kill drives, but even worse is when the ball goes off a receiver's hands straight to a defender. That's happened to Tyreek at least 4 times this year that I can remember. It's just bad luck unfortunately.

Let's also not forget that Denver is a pretty stingy defense. They are currently 3rd in the league in points allowed per game at 18.2 and 10th in passing yards per game. Fangio is the originator of the cover 4 scheme that's becoming more and more popular in the league this year due to the Rams success with it last year under Brandon Staley. The other two teams running this scheme are the Chargers (7th in pass yards per game) and Eagles (11th). Shockingly, if you drop a bunch of defenders it makes it much tougher for teams to throw. Rocket science I know.

In this game, the Chiefs essentially just abandoned the idea of throwing midway through the 3rd quarter. They weren't having much success and the defense was suffocating the Broncos, so they just began running and throwing short passes to the RB's.

So can the offensive issues be fixed? Perhaps. There's a variety of factors at play here, but I don't see any particular reason why they can't. The Raiders are a great place for KC to bounce back this week. When they met two weeks ago the Chiefs toyed with the Vegas defense to the tune of 41 points. After that the Chiefs get the Chargers, Steelers, Bengals, and Broncos again. No particularly easy defenses, but nothing too scary either. The Chargers are pretty good against the pass, but they can be beaten. Same goes for the Bengals. The worst matchup is the rematch with Denver but most fantasy seasons will be done by then.

I think we'll see a bit of a return to normal for KC the next month. Things may not be as high flying as they have been the past 3 years, but it shouldn't be the crapfest we've dealt with the last 4-5 weeks either.

The real story with the Chiefs is their defense. What looked like arguably the league's worst defense the first month of the season magically morphed into a top 10 unit basically overnight. Check out their last seven games of points allowed: 13, 27 (turnovers mostly responsible), 17, 7, 14, 9, 9. Now there's several bad offenses in that group, but they also shut down the Packers (albeit without Rodgers), the Cowboys, and Raiders. They are now 8th in the league in points allowed per game at 21.2!

Somehow most people still haven't caught on that the Chiefs defense is to be feared now. We still think of them as a joke because of the atrocious start to the season, but the reality is very different now.

If the Chiefs offensive struggles are mostly a fluke and the defense is actually a pretty good unit now, you have to take the Chiefs seriously as a Superbowl contender again. They are right in the mix with the Patriots and Bills. They should finish out the season 3-2 or 4-1 maybe which would give them 11 or 12 wins and a top 2 seed in the AFC.

The Broncos fall to 6-6 but still have life. They draw the lowly Lions next week which should get them to 7-6, then they finish out with the Bengals, Raiders, Chargers, and Chiefs. If they can somehow go 2-2 in that stretch it would get them to 9 wins with a shot at a wildcard spot. The two key games are against the Bengals and Chargers as those are two of the teams they'll be battling for the final playoff spots. Tiebreaks over them would go a long way towards getting in.

Ultimately, I don't think the Broncos will make it. They have a pretty good defense, but the offense is a mess. The big issue is their offensive line is atrocious and Bridgewater is being pressured on almost every play. Teddy is fine if he has time to throw, but muddy the pocket and he gets jittery and starts misfiring. My best guess is the Broncos only win 1 of those last 4 games and finish 8-9 just out of the playoffs.

Fantasy Notes

--Everyone and their grandmother was predicting a big game for Javonte Williams (23-102-0, 6-76-1/9) and boy did he deliver. It's been painfully obvious all year that Javonte is by far the best rookie RB and already one of the best in the entire league. This should have been the final straw to give him the starting job, but this never works out with NFL coaches. You can take it to the bank that as soon as Melvin Gordon can go he'll be back out there as the lead guy in a 60-40 split.

Just to give some context on how good Javonte is: RC and I were texting during the game and we both feel that he is performing better than any RB we've seen all year except Derrick Henry. That includes Jonathan Taylor. Now we're not saying Javonte will necessarily be a better fantasy producer than Taylor at any point in his career. We're simply saying he has the potential to do so. Taylor is a great RB no doubt, one of the best in the league, but his fantasy success has just as much to do with his situation (a great o-line, weak opponents, and tons of carries) as his talent.

Will Javonte ever get those factors working for him? Maybe, maybe not. He certainly doesn't have the line right now. But if he ever does watch out because he's as good as any back in the league. He'll be a top 4 pick in 2022 redrafts I can almost guarantee.

*RC NOTE: I AM saying Javonte will be better than Jonathan Taylor (no slam on JT). I’ll go out there on that limb. I’ve been on that limb for a few months...impatiently waiting. It took about a season+ for Frank Reich to get it through his thick skull. Fangio probably the same, or new coach/pal of Aaron Rodgers next year will get it. 

--If you haven't already bailed on Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant, it's time to do so. Both are great players, fantastic talents that are being underutilized. This goes back to talking about situation like with Javonte. Right now Teddy has no time to throw and so he is forced to take the short, safe throws to Jeudy and the TE's instead of looking for Sutton down the field. If he could ever get time for Sutton to beat 1-on-1 coverage outside, we might have something, but I don't see any cupcakes on the schedule for that to work against. It's the exact same issue that Claypool is dealing with in Pittsburgh. Both guys are a random play each week where you hope they connect on that one deep ball to make the day.

--Fant's situation is much the same. Great player but Teddy is splitting targets evenly between Fant and Okwuegbunam. Smart for real football. Sucks for fantasy. And of course, Okwuegbunam is a good TE in his own right. He deserves a starting spot too. But until one of these guys moves on I have no interest in either for fantasy.

--I've already said my piece on Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce. I believe they will all bounce back somewhat over the last month. That's the core of the KC offense. Nothing is wrong with them per se. They still know how to play football. The points will come, just maybe not at the insane rates we expected when we drafted them this year.

*RC NOTE: We will discuss the Mahomes-Tyreek dilemma more on the Video Q&A tonight. No, Tyreek is not killing you -- he’s the #5 PPR PPG WR in Fantasy a blink from #3. Mahomes is more of an issue, we’ll discuss more throughout the week. 

--The one KC player I haven't addressed yet is Clyde Edwards Helaire (14-54-0, 3-28-0/3). As expected he came right back to a solid lead position over Darrel Williams. What I didn't necessarily expect was that while Williams lost most of the run game work, he retained a decent chunk of the passing work at RB. That, plus the lack of scoring opportunities for the offense in general, has held Helaire back from making the jump into RB1 scoring that I thought might happen.

The good news is that Helaire has his normal workload back and is getting a decent amount of catches again. He's a safe RB2 for the moment as KC continues to rely on the short game as teams try to take away the deep ball. If they can reconfigure the offense in some manner to regain their explosiveness and start scoring closer to 30 ppg again, Helaire is a decent bet to get a piece of that and possibly propel him into back end RB1 territory. It's pure speculation though. I haven't seen any evidence that is happening yet. For now he's the same RB2 he's been for two years now.

*RC NOTE: For me, CEH and Mecole Hardman have been trying to tell you who they are in this KC situation for two seasons now. We all keep fighting it, and wanting to believe in fairy tales. We have to reprogram ourselves a touch on ‘everything KC is fantastic’. Tyreek and Kelce are...not Josh Gordon and not CEH. Kareem Hunt, the backup RB for the Browns, is a better FF RB than CEH week-to-week. Old Hunt memories also haunt CEH, because we keep (and I did as well when CEH was drafted) thinking ‘if Hunt was that good with KC, then certainly CEH will be great!’ 

There’s a reason why the Chiefs Vegas line is always inflated. The Chiefs are 12-16 ATS/against the spread the past two regular seasons...because our minds are programmed to believe KC is something they are not. They aren’t bad...just our ‘feeling’ on them is corrupt...and it bleeds into our FF analysis. 

Snap Counts of Interest

29 = Clyde Edwards-Helaire

26 = Darrel Williams

60 = Javonte Williams

17 = Mike Boone

68 = Courtland Sutton

67 = Tim Patrick

56 = Jerry Jeudy

14 = Kendall Hinton

R.C. Fischer

FFM

07 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Steelers 20, Ravens 19

Everything you wanted to know about these two teams happened on the first drive for each…

Baltimore moved the ball right down the field on their opening drive, and then they got down into the red zone and Lamar Jackson threw a ridiculous interception…another ridiculous one…8 TDs/10 INTs his last six games, but the media will not say ‘boo’ about it. Lamar is probably the most protected by the media QB in the NFL, for reasons I cannot comprehend. Strike that, LJax is #2. Matt Stafford is #1. Sam Darnold is #3 tied with Jameis Winston.

Pittsburgh’s turn for their first drive. Najee run for 5 yards. Najee run for 4 yards. 3rd & 1, Najee run for -1-yard, punt. The typical Steelers offense: ineffective Najee on the ground, especially on a short yardage conversion need, all happening on your TV screen while the game analysts/announcers coo about how great Najee’s rookie season has been and that he’s going to be an elite RB for a long time in this league…as he slams his way towards another under 3.50 yards per rush game with a lot of carries and less than 70-75 yards rushing each game and likely with no TDs.

Lamar turnovers and Najee ineffectiveness are the hallmark of these two teams' 2021 seasons on offense.

Everything you want to know about football fans and the football media happened on the last play of the game…

The Ravens ran a 2+ minute final drive, down 7, for a TD with seconds remaining. Ravens now down 20-19, and they decide to ‘go for two’…a gutsy call to go for the win/loss.

Whenever a team ‘goes for it’, like this, if they convert…the coach is hailed as a genius, a tough as nails believer in his men and master of analytics.

Whenever a team ‘goes for it’, like this, and they fail to convert…the coach is an idiot, and WE (the critics/fans) would NEVER go for it there for XYZ football reasons. And THIS is the reason why coaches aren’t more daring, and why GMs don’t make trades – football fans are insufferable, constantly pointing out the after-the-fact way it should’ve gone (when the thing failed).

Before we get too uppity…FF players do the same thing. Those that are out of the playoffs right now, and those that ultimately don’t make it, or those that do and lose first-round of the playoffs, will eventually/immediately go into a whole next year game plan on how they are never going to do ____ (thing that didn’t work) again and they are definitely going to do ____ (thing that in retrospect did work that season).

On that vibe, looking back the past six seasons, the NFL MVP from each season…was an FF disappointment or total FF-flop the following year. We see a lot of ‘was amazing for a season’ events that we then chase for the reversal. Michael Thomas after that wow 2019 season…Christian McCaffrey after that wow 2019 season. Alvin Kamara was the top PPR back last year, injured/disappointment this year. Devante Adams scored 18 TDs last season, and no one could stop his TD rampage…he has 5 TDs this season.

It’s not as easy going back through in December and lamenting the players you should’ve taken in August redrafts. It’s always the perfect plan when your mind races to beat yourself up by not only constantly reminding yourself of your FF-mistakes, but then daydreaming up the perfect alternatives that could’ve happened to double-down on the pain…you coulda had the perfect draft, but you didn’t. A perfect draft would be like hitting the lottery – assembling all the top scorers for one particular season and none of them get hurt and/or didn’t have their QB get hurt to affect their outputs, etc., is a pipe dream.

We are going to make bad trades (sometimes we acquire the player about to tear their ACL or chased a hot player who suddenly went cold). We are going to pick ‘A’ redraft pick or waiver option (for logical reasons at the time), when ‘B’ wound up the right option in retrospect. We double remember every bad move, and instantly forget/discount every good move.

I can’t tell you how many people in Nov.-Dec. 2021 have lamented to me about “I should have never picked or traded for _____. I’ll never do that again.” Looking at their lineup, I’ll then point out that grabbing Cordarrelle Patterson was a good move by them, and they’ll retort…”Yeah, but that was total luck. That's one in a million.”

Football fans, Fantasy owners…the real battle is not fully in scouting and studying, it’s a battle for your mind that’s always chasing fairy tales and trying to chase away nightmares, but you vividly remember ALL the bad (and inflate it) and never remember or credit any of the good. You’ve never won a Fantasy week in your life that wasn’t luck, but all your losses are because of XYZ mistake you made (listening to me, listening to ESPN, flipping a coin, going with your gut).

Where was I?

Oh, don’t be afraid to 'go for it' chasing wins in the NFL or FF…because you’re worried that you’ll lose a game/a showdown/a playoff/a season…fearing all the criticism, from your own mind (in Fantasy) from the fans/media (in the NFL). I realize 95-99% of the people who read that last sentence will not be swayed. Fantasy loves misery and lamenting in reflecting on the past...especially whatever just happened last week. I keep giving this message over and over, hoping it eventually sinks in to the few. Not because I’m some genius…I just have 10+ years and million Fantasy conversations and actual game play in this arena to have it beaten into my head.

To bring it all home…the most complaints, the most proclamations about ‘Next year…’, come from Fantasy owners who have winning records today and are headed to the playoffs. Teams out of it today, they are happily put out of their misery – no more weekly anxiety, now they can get to their favorite mode…hyper/microanalysis of the prior season and 9 months of planning where there are no games and where there is no more losing. Teams still in it – have all week to worry about losing and their season ending now. Praying to win but expecting to lose.

The Fantasy battle is a battle for the mind as much as it is scouting/lineup strategy.

The next few Fantasy weeks – it’s time to win or die trying. It’s not time to try and not-lose. It’s time to go for wins. It’s do-or-die season now.

Baltimore loses a game they could’ve won, but they played equally as bad/sloppy/sluggish as the Steelers and failed the 2-point conversion and lost to fall to (8-4). This Ravens team is so bad for a ‘top’ AFC team. They are a .500 or less team that has gotten VERY lucky this season. Losing Marlon Humphrey is more bad news for their playoff hopes. If Baltimore loses to Cleveland Week 14, it’s possible they lose their next 4 games, or three of 4 (CLE, GB, CIN, LAR) and are scrambling for a wild card in the end…but this AFC North is so bad that 10 wins might win it, and the Ravens are closest to getting to the 10 wins. Beat CLE Week 14, and they’re pretty golden.

The Steelers are now (6-5-1), the worst team with a winning record in the NFL. They have a chance to lose out (MIN-TEN-KC-CLE-BAL). At a minimum, it will be very hard for them to get to 9 wins, which is where the wild card will likely be low-end.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Diontae Johnson (8-105-2/11) was a Fantasy MVP for some of us this week. I thought this was going to be a tough matchup (BAL has a history of shutting off Diontae), but I didn’t fully realize the Ravens get amnesia week-to-week in 2021.

Remember Week 1 when Darren Waller caught a billion passes on the Ravens and Baltimore would never adjust, then did adjust some in the 2nd-half with double teams, then stopped doing it (again) and then Waller went back to burning them for a Raiders win? Well, somehow Diontae was not being covered by Marlon Humphrey here…their best corner. Diontae kept getting nice single coverage from #2/#3 CBs, and despite the fact that DJ is the guy who is the only one to stop/worry about on the Steelers, because that’s where Ben throws it all the time, the Ravens never adjusted, and Humphrey made sure the very dangerous James Washington (0-0-0/1) was locked down. Well, mission accomplished…and a loss.

Diontae is pushing towards the season-long top 3 PPR scoring per game WR in Fantasy.

 -- Chase Claypool (3-52-0/3) is nothing but a WR3-4 flyer. He has 1 receiving TD this season…that’s how poorly run this passing game is.

He has 2 receiving TDs in his last 16 regular season games. Absolutely pathetic. A waste of one of the great WR talents in the game.

 -- Pat Freiermuth (3-26-0/4) got good looks early in the game, and then kinda disappeared during the Diontae show. Nothing seems wrong, just wasn’t his kinda FF game flow.

 -- Lamar Jackson (23-37 for 253 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 8-55-0) has played 11 games this season and in 9 of those games he’s had exactly 1 TD pass…9 TDs/11 INTs.

He has not rushed for a TD since Week 2…10 of 11 games with no rushing TDs.

Lamar is becoming a QB2 right before our eyes…with QB1 blip upside hopes any given week. Remember when he was the future of football and Fantasy after 2019?

 -- The Ravens backfield is all Devonta Freeman (14-52-1, 5-45-0/8) now. How that’s possible, I do not know. Latavius Murray 2-1-0, 2-34-0/2) took all of two carries here.

Ty’Son Williams was inactive, and Nate McCrary (1-0-0) was promoted…and McCrary looks like he’s running into a 100mph wind gust.

It’s stunning to behold how awful this backfield is. For FF purposes, it’s Freeman only these days.

 -- Rashod Bateman (0-0-0/1) is a victim of Lamar Jackson. Nice WR, in the wrong place at the wrong time.

 -- The Ravens-DST was already about useless for FF but losing Marlon Humphrey should mean open season even more on the Ravens defense by opposing offenses. They are not that viable a DST against CLE Week 14…and then GB-CIN-LAR Weeks 15-17, no thanks. 

Rodgers-Burrow-Stafford benefit ahead from this Ravens downturn coming.

 -- The Steelers-DST played one of their best games of the year. Not good enough a unit to make me want to play them vs. Minnesota, at MIN Week 14…but Week 15 v. TEN is a possibility. Week 16 at KC is probably not, but these days with KC…who knows?

Snap Counts of Interest:

57 = Diontae

40 = Ray-Ray

38 = Claypool

22 = Washington

51 = Devonta

14 = Latavius

02 = McCrary

64 = Marquise

44 = Duvernay

34 =Watkins

33 = Bateman

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

06 December 2021

A look back at the Chargers 2021 season via RC's weekly game recaps/analysis with 2022 notes/comments added to this review...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

05 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Washington 17, Seahawks 15 

Weird game. Seattle was the first team to score a TD to take a 7-3 lead, but Washington would respond shortly before the half. Instead of taking a 10-3 lead however, Seattle blocked the extra point attempt and returned it for a 2-point conversion to give us a 9-9 tie.

After the half it was all Washington until the final minutes when Seattle would fail a conversion to tie the game, then the onside kick attempt was overturned after it appeared that the Seahawks had recovered it.

Washington has now won 3 in a row to get to 5-6 with some hope still alive to take down Dallas for the division. They have 5 divisional games left including two with Dallas, so things are still very much up in the air. I'm guessing they don't have enough firepower to beat Dallas out, but it's a scrappy offense and the defense has been improving the past few weeks. They've held their last 3 opponents to a combined 55 points (18.3 ppg). If they can keep that up they might have a chance.

This loss drops Seattle to 3-8 and their season is over. It was over from the moment Wilson injured his finger. So how does Pete Carroll respond? By signing Adrian Peterson to quote “help them win now.” Somebody needs to explain the situation to Pete I guess.

One of two things is going to happen in Seattle this off-season. Either Carroll is fired or Wilson leaves in free agency. My guess is Carroll is fired. That's the easier, more digestible move for PR. But if they trade Russell and then go on a losing streak for a few years with Pete it's going to get the entire front office fired. They can't afford that. If the situation can be salvaged with Russell it will be. They'll give him near full control to bring in whatever coach or players he wants. Prepare for a bumpy off-season Seahawks fans.

Fantasy Notes

--Damn you RC. You talked me into trading Antonio Gibson (29-111-0, 7-35-0/7) a few weeks ago right before Washington decided to recommit to making Gibson their version of McCaffrey. I can't say I honestly blame you though. Up until that point all the signs were that Gibson was being phased out, he might be shut down..etc. And then magically he starts getting 20+ touches a game. You can't plan for wild swings like that.

Unless something changes I don't foresee this slowing down. This is the kind of work I was hoping for when I drafted Gibson. He's the discount version of McCaffrey or Taylor right now. All the workload but with a bad offensive line and offense so he's not very efficient or scoring much. When he does though it's going to be sweet. Gibson very well might win some leagues on this final stretch of 6 games.

*RC NOTE: Damn me, too…

I take full responsibility. Isn’t that what high-profile people guilty of something say to appease everyone? Can I say, “It’s not who I am?” Would that work? No? It’s OK, I’m not sorry...I mean, I’m sorry this didn’t work out (like people caught in stuff are sorry...yeah, they’re sorry they got caught) but I’m not sorry for making the move for what I believed to be coming. 

I thought Washington was dead three weeks ago, no way they ever get back in the playoff race, they just lost Chase Young, one more loss likely would have prompted a further Gibson shutdown and then possible full shutdown to get his fractured shin healed -- instead they beat Tampa Bay, returning Cam/Carolina, and then returning Russ/Seattle. I didn't think they’d win more than a game in this stretch, instead they mowed it all down (kinda, could’ve lost the last two). 

I played the Gibson card betting against Washington ever in the playoff hunt. They did the opposite, and now I’m burned by Gibson moves I made just ahead of a quasi-breakout. Rewind the universe back to Week 9, their bye week before the Tampa game, let’s play these games all over again -- I’d bet against Washington and Gibson all over again. 

Sometimes you hit on ‘12’ and draw a face card. 

--Logan Thomas (3-31-0/6) is back and right back into his old role. By now a lot of people will have forgotten about him so he might be available on waivers if you need a TE. Thomas is as good a shot as any. I like his volume and situation to be a top 3-5 TE the rest of the schedule.

--Curtis Samuel returned too but wasn't thrown right back into his #2 role immediately. It was likely just an attempt to ease him back into things. Look for his role to grow the next few weeks. Don't think he's redraft usable yet, but we might look up in 2-3 weeks and he's a WR2.5-3 option especially if the staff starts to give him some carries with McKissic out.

--There was a lot of ink spilled after this game about the Seahawks not getting the ball to DK Metcalf (1-13-0/4) more and quite frankly it's justified. There is no excuse for not throwing a pass to your best player for an entire half and only 4 for the entire game. DK is one of the most physically dominant players in the entire league. Manufacture something. Throw him a screen. It's really not hard. After the outcry here I would expect a big game coming for Metcalf against the 49'ers this week.

--It should go without saying, but please do not pick up Adrian Peterson. He got cut from Tennessee for a reason. There's nothing left. And he's certainly not walking into the worst offensive line situation in the league and making it better. There's no hope for any RB behind this sad excuse for a line. Alex Collins is done now too if that wasn't obvious.

--I hear lots of consternation about Russell Wilson (20-31 for 247 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) right now, but I don't see much wrong with him. He overthrows the occasional ball high now, likely a lingering effect of the finger injury, but the biggest issue is the line isn't giving him any time to throw. That isn't getting fixed anytime soon. Wouldn't be surprised if we see Russell take off in fantasy over the last few weeks though as the coaching staff unleashes him to throw every play in a desperate attempt to save their jobs. Watch.

*RC NOTE: Our internal metrics have only the Denver Broncos as a worse pass protection O-Line than Seattle. This Russ ‘issue’ and DKM target problem -- it may not get fixed until they play a weak pass rush/secondary combo...and that doesn't happen until Weeks 16-17 (CHI-DET).

Snap Counts of Interest

28 = DeeJay Dallas

19 = Alex Collins

66 = Logan Thomas

48 = John Bates

57 = Antonio Gibson

33 = JD McKissic

3 = Jaret Patterson

76 = Terry McLaurin

61 = DeAndre Carter

32 = Adam Humphries

20 = Curtis Samuel