R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Chiefs 48, Raiders 9

This game was 35-0 right before the half, but then Vegas kicked a crucial field goal to cut it to 35-3 at the half. This was never a game. Five turnovers, 4 lost fumbles…the Raiders watched their season slide right down the drain, and any chance the interim head coach had of keeping this job for the future…flushed down the toilet.

The Chiefs are (9-4) and leading the AFC West by a game…over the Chargers, who they play in a huge matchup on TNF this week. Win…and a #1 seed is still possible. Lose…and they are in a dogfight to the finish with LAC for the AFC West title. Win Week 15 and they likely finish (12-5) and a possible shot at a #1 seed over New England or Tennessee. Lose Week 15, and they could wind up (11-6) and possibly a high seed wild card. With their experience, you have to assume they win Week 15 and go on to win the AFC West…but it’s not a given.

The Raiders lose and plummet to (6-7) and last place in the AFC West, but still alive in the wild card. Alive but pretty much dead. Losers of five of their last 6 games and they may lose out to finish (6-11), (7-10) at best and a re-rebuild goes underway in 2022.

There’s not much to take away from this game study – it was over so fast, and players were pulled by KC as they coasted to victory.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Josh Jacobs (9-24-0, 5-46-0/6) fumbled on the first play of this game, and KC scooped and score…setting the tone for this nightmare.

All the Raiders have left is Jacobs at RB, and now Derek Carr is throwing to him a bunch…so he’s a legit option in PPR week-to-week (5.0 rec. per game his last 6 games), as the Raiders slide down a hole and don’t have any other weapons they want to use.

I mention Jacobs here, because he is falling out of favor fast in Las Vegas. 2022 may be his final season there. Jon Gruden desperately, expensively signing Kenyan Drake might have been one of the first signs of concern. Jacobs is losing FF momentum in the public square, and a new head coach might be a problem for him, to a fresh start. He might even be traded this offseason, if they can find a taker.

He went to Alabama, so there will be a taker…but it might be to put him in a split role, not a feature.

 -- Mediocre FF-games for the KC-Three (Mahomes-Tyreek-Kelce), but you can blame the game flow getting out of hand for the lack of a need to press numbers.

Patrick Mahomes (20-24 for 258 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) only threw the ball 24 times…the lowest pass attempts ever for him, in a game where he played 90%+ of the snaps. He might have had 400+ yards and 4+ TDs if this was a game, but it wasn’t. Don’t blame him…you just have to ride him if he’s your obvious guy.

Tyreek Hill (4-76-0/4) went along with Mahomes. Tyreek came up gimpy on his last catch and he spent the 4th-quarter mostly out of the game…in this low target/pass attempt affair.

Travis Kelce (3-27-0/4) has the same excuse, but he’s starting to worry me. 1 TD in his last 8 games. Under 10 targets in a game in five of his last 6 games. Suddenly, he’s not getting treated like a star like the past few years. Week 15 v. LAC is a good matchup to rise back, but if he doesn’t…are we nearing an end to the Kelce run? He is 32 years old. He should still have another year or two, but he’s not looking as spry as prior years. All will be forgiven with a big week on TNF this week. Like Mahomes or Tyreek…you just gotta ride it out and do-or-die with these aces.

 -- Zay Jones (5-25-0/7) has 7-5-7 for targets in games the past three weeks, as he’s becoming Derek Carr’s favorite WR with Darren Waller out. Still…not a heavy dose of action and still low yardage and no TDs. It’s not a great opportunity, but it’s up off the ground a bit at least.

Darren Waller is not likely to play Week 15, and Foster Moreau is now hurt as well. Zay might get an 8-10 target game Week 15, perhaps…but probably for 40-50 yards and no TDs.

 -- Josh Gordon (2-9-1/3) scored a TD…alert the media…he’s back…he’s a star again.

Nope.

He just got a gimme, cheap short TD toss…and little else, as usual. Nothing developing here.

 -- Keep an eye on Malcolm Koonce (1 tackle, 1 sack).

Week 13 = 7 snaps, 1 sack

Week 14 = 15 snaps, 1 sack

A great rookie pass rush prospect getting his first two games of work in 2021…and he should get more opportunity each week. Maxx Crosby has 3.0 sacks in his last 12 games. Koonce has 2.0 sacks in 22 snaps played in 2021.

 -- Rookie SAF Divine Deablo (10 tackles) is playing more with the Raiders injuries at linebacker. He started this week and produced nicely…now, back-to-back weeks with heavier snap counts and 10+ tackle counts each game. He probably fades back some when Denzel Perryman is back.

 -- The Chiefs defense is on fire…six games in-a-row holding opponents to 17 or fewer points, and in seven of their last 8 games. It hasn’t been a murderer’s row of offenses/QBs, but it’s happening. Week 15 may be a rude awakening vs. Justin Herbert.

Snap Counts of Interest:

44 = Tyreek

40 = Pringle

30 = D Robinson

24 = Gordon

23 = Hardman

23 = D Williams

23 = CEH

20 = Gore

62 = Moreau

01 = Daniel Helm

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Chargers 37, Giants 21

24-7 LAC at halftime.

37-7 LAC with 4+ minutes remaining.

But then some garbage, a botched onside kick recovery…and suddenly it’s 37-21 with 1+ minute left and NYG driving. LAC buckled down and shut NYG down and got out of there with a 16-point win that was more like a 50+ point win turned into a 16-point affair via end of game malaise. It was never really close. NYG is a defeated group – still trying on defense but no offense at all.

The Chargers are now (8-5), and they are still only going as far as Justin Herbert takes them, because otherwise this team has a ton of holes. I’d love to see them solidify/gel and beatdown KC Week 15, but we’ll see. KC has the experience…but a ton of holes themselves. The Chargers are pretty locked for 9 wins, more likely 10 wins by season end, with a shot at winning out for 11-12 wins and an AFC West title. We project 10 wins because they’ve been sloppier than KC this season. LAC is headed to the playoffs either way.

The Giants (4-9) are not headed to the playoffs and are now entering a phase where they will be subject to incessant rumors on a coaching and GM change. I’ve mentioned it a few times – they should stick with this management team at least one more season. Injury and bad luck have doomed them as much as anything. They have a good core…they just need a real QB. NYG will finish with 5-6 wins and who knows what coach in 2022.  

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The big question from this game for Week 15 is – is Austin Ekeler (12-67-1, 2-170/4) going to play, and if not…who is taking his touches?

My guess, right at this moment, is that Ekeler will play and be fine. Brandon Staley has said Ekeler could have gone back in Week 14 if needed. I buy that…this game was so far out of hand it was easy to pull Ekeler off the field and keep him safe in the 2nd-half.

If Ekeler is a scratch for TNF Week 15, it seems clear to me that Justin Jackson (9-35-0, 1-7-0/1) is the guy they would trust in the Ekeler role, and he’d take a 70/30 or better share splitting with Joshua Kelley (10-33-0, 1-5-0/1).

When this was still a game, JJax was in taking relief/split touches with Ekeler. Kelley didn’t really get his work in until later when this was getting out of hand.

Jackson could be an RB1-2 projection for Week 15 with Ekeler out of the way. I just don’t believe it will happen that Ekeler is out.

 -- No Keenan Allen (DNP-COVID) gave us a good dose of/preview of Josh Palmer (5-66-1/7)…and we now see he belongs. He’s like if you took Keenan and Mike Williams and mashed them together – good-to-great hands and physical, nit s blazer/speedster and just normal height for a WR.

Palmer was a debated prospect going into the 2021 NFL Draft – was he athletic enough to matter in the bigs? He’s not speedy, but he’s a good football playing WR. He may allow LAC to just let Williams go in free agency 2022.

Speaking of Big Mike (6-61-0/6)…once again the best-looking (eye appeal) WR on the field in this game/in the NFL…and just a ho hum FF result. Big Mike is becoming the Kyle Pitts of WRs. He gets all the defensive attention, so Herbert just smokes the defense with all his other options – which is great for the NFL, sucks for Big Mike for FF.

Jaylen Guyton (3-87-1/3) has back-to-back weeks with a TD. My knee-jerk reaction is…he’s not very good, so I’m looking past him -- but my reaction now should be/will be…it’s good to be the #3 WR working with Justin Herbert. Anyone on the field with Herbert has FF hope. Guyton might be becoming Marquez Valdes-Scantling west coast edition.

 -- Justin Herbert (23-31 for 275 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) is starting to play lights out again…playing like 2020 where despite all the other issues (lack of blocking, unimaginative play calling, a weak run game) Herbert just out-talents the obstacles and gives the team a chance to win. He was so low-key great here.  

Herbert is now #3 in FF PPG and #2 in total yardage among QBs, less than a hundred behind Tom Brady.

My mind says KC beats LAC on TNF this week, but Herbert there makes me think they got a chance to take the mantle of best team in the AFC West…and best QB in the AFC away from KC Week 15.

 -- And then there was Mike Glennon (17-36 for 191 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT)…the anti-Herbert…

Actually, he’s not playing terribly…it’s just this offense, this team is so miserable, and the receivers drop so many passes. I’ll just note, for time sake, that every receiver related to Glennon is not worth your time in FF.

Sterling Shepard (2-27-0/4) is only a thing with Dan Dimes.

Kadarius Toney (DNP) could be something, but I’d guess this offense, this whole team vibe is going to put a lid on anything Toney could do…if he ever returns to action.

 -- I’ve been bragging about the LAC-DST and this finishing schedule (Week 14, and 16-17). Well, we almost got a gem here…only 7 points allowed with 4 minutes left…then a bunch of bullshit happened/they laid down just trying to get out of there.

The Chargers are an average defense…it’s just playing against garbage offenses puts them on the DST map. Week 16-17 v. HOU-DEN should…SHOULD…be good but you’ll hold your breath. Having lost Derwin James (COVID) right before this game did not help matters here. He’ll be back for TNF.

Snap Counts of Interest:

33 = Ekeler

20 = JJax

19 = Kelley

62 = Palmer

59 = Mike Williams

42 = Guyton

33 = McKitty

31 = Cook

29 = Parham

38 = Barkley

28 = Booker

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

Ross Jacobs

FFM

14 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Packers 45, Bears 30 

The Bears got off to a hot start here and with the help of a few fluky plays and some heroics from Jakeem Grant, they somehow managed to lead this game for quite some time. Of course, it was not meant to be. Chicago simply can't hang with the Packers, and Aaron Rodgers just methodically carved them up until the ending was no longer in doubt.

The Packers are up to 10-3 with the North all but theirs already. They currently have the #2 seed, but they might be able to get to the #1 seed if Arizona stumbles against a much more difficult schedule than what Green Bay has to face. I think the Packers will ultimately wind up with the top seed, and that is going to really change the nature of the NFC playoffs because teams would much rather go play in Arizona's dome than deal with the cold if Wisconsin.

This is a really good team and they are just getting better by the week. I wasn't a fan early on but I see it now.

The only thing holding them back is health. Jaire Alexander sounds like he'll be available this week or next week at the absolute latest. When he's back GB is in the conversation with Arizona for best defense in the league. Stokes and Douglas have been fantastic but Alexander takes them to another level. There were a few crazy broken plays in coverage last night, but I'm not concerned about it. Sometimes things happen.

David Bakhtiari probably needs more time. He practiced once at the end of November but his knee acted up on him again. He's still a few weeks away at best but it's possible he'll be ready for the playoffs.

A possible larger issue developing is Aaron Rodgers and his toe he fractured in November. Apparently he aggravated the injury during this win and it's causing him a great deal of pain. He looked into surgery when it first happened and decided against it, but now that might be back on the table. If he does have a procedure done it would likely be to immobilize the toe. You can imagine how that might make life difficult for him in the pocket. Mahomes dealt with something similar last year in the playoffs, and we saw how that turned out for him.

It's still very early and we don't have much information yet, but my best guess is Rodgers attempts to play through this and is somewhat affected by it, again much like Mahomes was last year. Getting Bakhtiari back would greatly help as far as protecting Rodgers so he doesn't have to move as much. If those three players can all play then this might be the best team top to bottom in the entire league. They are close to being the best even without two of them.

The poor Bears fall to 4-9 and don't have a lot going for them. Chicago fans are probably feeling ok right now thinking they just gave the Packers a run for their money, but honestly it was pretty fluky that the Bears were even in the game and the Packers still stomped on the gas pedal and ran them over. They might get lucky and win another game or two, but all that does is drop their draft position down even farther.

I can't see how Matt Nagy survives this. There have simply been too many problems, too many issues exacerbated by him that have dropped this team into a death spiral. Drafting Justin Fields was a last ditch effort to provide a spark, and you see how that turned out. The media won't catch on for 4-5 more years as Fields goes the way of Darnold, but you and I know he's not a franchise QB. Never was, never will be. But now the Bears are saddled with him for at least another few years. It's not going to be pretty.

Fantasy Notes

--First things first...did I not warn you about Jakeem Grant two weeks ago? Now I'll admit I didn't see this type of breakout coming but only because I thought the Bears would never up his snap counts significantly and actually get him the ball. Credit to them, they saw what I saw and it kept them in this game for a bit.

Grant isn't a superstar player. But he is a very fast, solid, useful guy to get touches to. It's amazing to me that coaches still don't understand the very simple strategy of getting the ball directly to their most explosive players and letting them try to make something happen.

Every middle school kid knows that's how you play. Who's our fastest guy? You? Ok, let's give him the ball every single play and it doesn't matter if the other team knows it or not, they aren't fast enough to stop him forever. Instead, these genius coaches would rather draw up some complex gobbledygook play with 37 words in it for his players to try and memorize and then throw a curl route to some slow ass 275 lb TE. Nothing makes them happier than that.

Back to Grant. He's a good player. Definitely should be on the field taking screen passes, reverses, a couple handoffs, returning punts..etc. Just get the ball in his hands and sometimes magic happens like it did here. Honestly, they still aren't going to him often enough, but hey it's a start. Still don't think he's usable for fantasy yet, but now that they've seen what he can do...we'll have to see.

--RC's big call from this game was for the emergence of Marquez Valdes-Scantling (3-20-0/5) and that didn't work out so well, but note MVS just missed out on two possible TD's here. One was a tough catch that went off his hands and another just out of his reach. The opportunities were there. I think perhaps we were a little overzealous with him, but he is very close to popping a bit. I'd treat him as a WR3 for the time being.

--Part of what's holding MVS back a little is the re-emergence of Allen Lazard (6-75-1/7). This is the first time in a while that I've seen Rodgers actually trying to work Lazard as something other than a random option. I don't think Rodgers will throw for 341 yards most weeks, so I wouldn't count on the heavy yardage totals for Lazard, but he might be getting a few more scoring options his way with Cobb out. Maybe it pushes Lazard to a low end WR2? He's definitely in play again.

--Another big change with the GB offense that's helping...AJ Dillon (15-71-0) is the new main carry back and Aaron Jones (5-35-1, 3-30-1/3) is being used as a change of pace/3rd down back. It's a fantastic plan for the team, but it's going to be somewhat frustrating for fantasy owners.

Jones “started” the game as usual, but Dillon was quickly in and taking the bulk of the work. He's their grinder, their bully they use to help wear down the defense. Think Derrick Henry's early years before he became the entire offense. Unfortunately for Dillon, while he's now getting good carry counts, Jones is still getting most of the red zone opportunities, at least for now.

I think you can consider Dillon a RB2 now. He didn't have any catches here, but he's usually involved in the passing game a little and he should also get more short TD's soon. If you have Jones I'd be worried. The TD's propped him up here but those won't always be available. My best guess is he's still probably a low RB2 but I wouldn't swear to it.

--I've bashed Justin Fields (18-33 for 224 yards 2 TD/2 INT, 9-74-0) a lot this year and for good reason. He's not a good QB. The numbers look ok here considering the caliber of defense he was playing against, but about 100 of his yards came from Grant and Byrd blowing through the defense by themselves for long TD's.

Long term I don't see much hope for him. He's skittish and inaccurate. Short term he works pretty well for fantasy now that he's running more. I'm still never blown away by his runs though the way I am with Lance or Hurts or Taysom. You'd think a 225 lb guy with 4.4 speed would be more explosive than he is. I'd consider him a QB 1.5 for now.

*RC NOTE: I thought this was one of Fields’s better games…showing some hope of being a Jalen Hurts type QB…a more willing runner of late (partially because he struggles as a passer). Being a Hurts-type QB is sweet for FF…not so great for NFL purposes. 

Lamar, Hurts, Fields, Cam, Taysom…the football world's future is not going to the ‘running QB’. It’s a myth…it’s actually a problem (for the teams getting suckered into it). It looks sexy. The media loves it. But the reality is…old Tom Brady and broken toe Aaron Rodgers are exponentially more NFL-valuable/more ‘winning’...but less ‘cool’. The cool kids like the runner-QBs because they also like cartoon depictions of the players who just a scored a TD to pop up on their TV screen, because nothing equals ratings like fans you have to drag/sucker into the product.

Why can’t football go…”Look, we’re football. We’re the greatest episodic TV show on the planet. We’re everywhere all week if you wanna watch. We get millions of viewers because people play Fantasy and gamble on it. We don’t need to try and get 0.1 more ratings by acting like goofs and spending time/money to bait the uninterested in watching with cartoons, contests, and televised games on Nickelodeon. We’re football. If you wanna watch the Masked Singer…God help you, be my guest. We’ll be over here with a Jacksonville game on a Thursday Night that will beat any TV show you got all week, so no more song and dance routines to get you interested, and insulting our vast existing customer base.”

IDP Notes

--De'Vondre Campbell (16 tackles) is so so so good. By now anyone that reads my reports knows I've been a fan of his for several years now. I don't care what PFF had to say about him in the past. They claim he was a journeyman, average LB and only suddenly this year morphed into one of the league's best. That's obvious nonsense. Campbell has been playing at an extremely high level going back to his time with the Cardinals and Falcons. There was no reason he should have been available to sign so cheaply this off-season.

GB is the winners for it. Campbell is playing DPOY caliber football. He might get a little consideration for it but I doubt he wins no matter how deserving. It's a shame. Hopefully the Packers up his pay next year. The man deserves it and more. He has become the heart and soul of this defense in one year. It's truly incredible.

*RC NOTE: The same PFF who dismissed Rasul Douglas, too. 

Snap Counts of Interest

58 = Davante Adams

53 = Allen Lazard

43 = Marquez Valdes-Scantling

35 = AJ Dillon

29 = Aaron Jones

57 = Darnell Mooney

48 = Allen Robinson

36 = Damiere Byrd

29 = Jakeem Grant

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Cowboys 27, Football Team 20

24-0 Dallas at the half. And as we are learning in the NFL the last 2-14 weeks…no huge lead is ever safe. Teams take a big halftime lead and start to go into a shell in the 2nd-half, while the down team starts playing with reckless abandon. The ahead team plays not to lose…and then they almost do lose.

Washington had this 24-point lead down to 27-20 with 3+ minutes left, and with the ball -- but as they drove down for a game tie/win/loss…they threw a pick…and ‘ballgame’. It really shouldn’t have been that close; Dallas was the superior team. It was fluky that the WTF’s got back in it, one part Dallas being sloppy, one part fluke. Washington is no serious threat to Dallas.

The Cowboys are now (9-4) and in total control of the NFC East. I’d argue, at full strength, they are possibly the best team in the NFC…but they can never get to full strength (now Tyron Smith is going to miss Week 15). Maybe by the playoffs they can get healthy – their big lead in the East allows them to maybe coast a little, throttle back a little and heal up some players. Dallas should finish with 12 wins and a long shot hope for a #1 seed…but more likely they are a #3-4 seed in a loaded NFC.

Washington is (6-7) and doesn’t belong in the playoffs…but they still have life. All I care is they get to 8 wins to ‘push’ my ‘over’ 8.0 wins preseason bet on them. We project that’s where they end – 8 wins, and out of the playoffs.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Three Dallas players don’t look totally ‘right’ to me. They are…

The first of three is Dak Prescott (22-39 for 211 yards, 1 TD/2 INT)

4 TDs/5 INTs the past 4 games. 6 TDs/6 INTs the last 5 games. Under 240 yards passing in four of his last 6 games. And the slide is happening against weaker pass defenses.

Part of the issue is some of that time he missed Tyron Smith in some games during that stretch, but only a few. Part of the issue, from what I am seeing…Dak just looks a tad jittery/jumpy/not himself passing, to my eyes. I don’t know if it’s an injury he’s keeping to himself…or if it is residual from last year’s injury...or I don’t know what it is, but it hasn’t been great…and we know Dak is pretty good/great.

Something is up and it is dragging down some players around him, for FF.

 -- The second of the three is the worst-looking one… Ezekiel Elliott (12-45-0, 1-15-0/6)

One catch off 6 targets this game. Unbelievable.

Another sub-4.0 ypc game…five games in a row. Zeke’s last 7 games ypc per game…

Week 8 = 3.1

Week 9 = 5.1

Week 10 = 2.9

Week 11 = 3.6

Week 12 = 2.8

Week 13 = 3.5

Week 14 = 3.8

Zeke has a sprained PCL, and that is like a weight on your back trying to play with it…reduced speed, reduced agility…beyond the pain/discomfort. Everyone can see it. He needs time off. He probably won’t get it. Given the 3-game lead now and facing NYG this week…MAYBE they really throttle him back and let his knee have an extra week to heal. Why they keep pushing him all week, I have no idea. Once healed, he’ll be fine.

Tony Pollard has a torn plantar fasciitis, and he may need another week or two…or go on IR. If so, Corey Clement (13-44-0, 1-2-0/2) is the ‘next man up’…and that may matter vs. NYG. He may see 10+ touches Week 15…maybe.

Clement has been a long-time grinder backup for the Eagles, then released by the new regime, and picked up by Dallas and he’s been rostered all season. He’s a low-end athlete, but experienced, tough/a grinder.

 -- The third letdown of the Dallas triumvirate is Amari Cooper (5-51-1/7). He’s not playing poorly…he just looks like the least dangerous of the Dallas trio of WRs anymore. No longer ‘wow’ or ‘elite’ or ‘the man’.

CeeDee Lamb (7-61-0/10) is the Dak go-to anymore, but Gallup looks way better/quicker/more effective than any of them.

Since Michael Gallup (5-60-0/9) has returned to playing 90%+ of the snaps (Week 11), look at the target distribution between Amari and Gallup since then…

5.0 rec. (9.3 targets), 61.5 yards, 0.25 TDs per game = Gallup (last 4 weeks)

3.3 rec. (4.5 targets), 45.0 yards, 0.25 TDs per game = Amari (last 4 weeks)

Gallup has caught 5 passes in a game for four straight games. Amari has caught 5 or more passes in a game 4 times this season (in 11 games).

The new pecking order for the Dallas passing game…

Lamb

Gallup

Cooper

 -- Not Dalton Schultz (1-4-0/3) in the pecking order…he is dead to me. I didn’t believe Gallup would be heavily involved upon his return, as he’s been a ghost with the trio back to 2020 – but I was wrong, way wrong. Schultz has died since Gallup returned…something I also did not believe would happen.

 -- Antonio Gibson (10-36-0, 2-5-0/2) was crushed by the revamped/healthy Dallas D-Line, and then fumbled…which has been an issue. He got benched again. But when this game got back to being a game…he was back in. Blame this one on the Dallas D.

 -- With a week to get ready to deploy all necessary assets, Curtis Samuel (0-0-0/2) saw no catches and no carries. Message received. I’m done with him for 2021, and we’ll have to reevaluate him for 2022 in this weak offense.

Terry McLaurin (0-0-0/4) was busy putting up another dud then was out due to a concussion…and still not any extra Samuel to try and push their (supposed) best offensive weapons.

 -- Ricky Seals-Jones (1-8-0/4) and John Bates (1-19-0/2) were nobodies here -- but blame Dallas some…WSH needed extra blocking from the TEs.

Week 15, they face the TE utopia of the Eagles defense. RSJ might matter Week 15…maybe.

 -- The Dallas-DST is smoking hot right now. I’ve been saying for a few weeks that Dallas could be an overall monster (as a team) when they get all their D-Lineman back healthy. Well, Week 14 was really the first time the main guys played together…

Randy Gregory (1 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT, 2 QB hits)

Neville Gallimore (2 tackles, 1 sack, 1 QB hit)

DeMarcus Lawrence (2 tackles, 1 sack, 2 QB hits)

Micah Parsons (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 2 QB hits)

9 QB hits for Dallas D…5.0 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 1 pick.

Guess what’s gonna happen when they face the Giants Week 15?

Snap Counts of Interest:

48 = Bates

31 = RSJ

42 = Humphries

40 = D Carter

40 = Sims

33 = McLaurin

23 = Dyami

14 = CSam

75 = Amari

70 = Gallup

57 = CeeDee

54 = Elliott

31= Clement

02 = J Hardy

‍

‍

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

13 December 2021

A look back at the Chargers 2021 season via RC's weekly game recaps/analysis with 2022 notes/comments added to this review...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

11 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Colts 31, Texans 0

Not a whole lot to say about this one. It was a straightforward beatdown by the Colts. Not sure why you would expect anything else from the Texans at this point. They aren't a remotely good team.

I do have to give Houston some credit though. Despite the season going down the toilet from the very beginning, I haven't seen the Texans quit yet. They are still out there giving their best every week, especially the defense. Those guys really bottled up Jonathan Taylor quite well for most of the game.

Houston has a chance to maybe grab one more win against the Jaguars, but ideally you'd like to lose it to get as high a draft pick as possible. The loser probably gets the 2nd pick in the draft and the winner should get the 3rd. Not a massive difference either way.

Indy finally climbs to a winning record at 7-6 and they are one of the hottest teams in football right now. You definitely don't want to face them in the playoffs, but they might not even make it after their poor start to the season. The next two games will likely decide it for them as they get the Patriots at home this week and then go to Arizona next week. Win both of those and they very likely come from behind to win the AFC South. Even just 1 win out of those two might be enough if Tennessee stumbles at the end of their schedule, but the Titans beat the Colts twice this season and therefore win the tiebreak. They probably need to get to 10 wins to have a chance.

I'll guess Indy finishes 10-7 but 9-8 isn't out of the question either. Assuming Tennessee holds on for the division title, the Colts will be in the mix along with the Chargers, Bengals/Ravens, and Bills for the three wildcard spots. Their win over the Bills could come in very handy in tiebreaks. My guess right now would be that they will make it in as the 7th seed at 10 wins, the Chargers and Bills get the final two wildcard spots at 11 wins each, and the Bengals win the North with 10 wins after Baltimore collapses down the stretch to miss the playoffs entirely.

Fantasy Notes

--The Texans announced this week that Davis Mills (6-14 for 49 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) would finish up the season as the starter over Tyrod Taylor. It's the right call. Taylor never should have gotten his job back in the first place. Mills isn't great, but he's young and has some tools you can develop. Let him get some experience, take a few more lumps, then reevaluate in the off-season to see if you want to move forward with him or draft a QB.

You can't play Mills in redraft right now. The team around him is simply too poor. He might be ok in the future if they can build the team up, but that's at least 2-3 years away. More than likely though Houston will be drafting a QB with their first pick. Mills hasn't been nearly as bad as we thought he would be, but he's still not on the dynasty radar.

--I guess Rex Burkhead (8-30-0, 1-15-0/2) is the starter for the Texans at RB now...for what that's worth. If you're absolutely desperate for RB points maybe you could start him against the Jaguars.

--Pharaoh Brown (4-23-0/5) brought in 4 passes here and has apparently ascended to the starting job at TE. He's the best they've got at the position, but that isn't saying a whole lot. He's not usable in redraft and will quickly be replaced by Brevin Jordan in dynasty.

--Ashton Dulin (1-2-1/1) got a TD here. Yay for him I guess. He's WR4 for Indy right now and has Mike Strachan looming. Not a bad player, you can't tell much of a difference between him and Zach Pascal for example, but he's not a player I'll ever be interested in for fantasy.

--One mildly interesting deep sleeper here is Colts rookie RB Deon Jackson (6-19-1). Jackson got a little mop up duty at the end of this game and looked like a fairly generic power back, not bad by any means but nothing special either. He kind of reminds me of another former Colt, Jordan Wilkins.

Jackson spent 4 years with Duke where he never really broke out. His production didn't stand out nor did his pro day, and thus he went undrafted. He does have good size at nearly 220 lbs to go along with probably 4.6 speed (he allegedly got a 4.42 at his pro day but it didn't look like it here), a 36” vertical jump, and an average 7.14 3-cone.

If Jackson was ever handed main carry duties for a couple games he'd probably do just fine especially behind this great Colts offensive line. I don't see a hidden star though, and he won't be seeing the field much behind Taylor.

IDP Notes

--My god Kamu Grugier-Hill (20 tackles, 1 sack, 3 tfl) went absolutely nuts here. He's been putting up decent stats all year, but this was insane. If you had him started at LB for whatever reason, congratulations! This wasn't some kind of coming out party or anything though. He's a decent player, but this was just a result of Taylor taking a million carries straight up the gut and Grugier-Hill being the only viable LB after Zach Cunningham was surprisingly inactive and then cut shortly after the game.

Speaking of Cunningham, he was cut for disciplinary reasons including a mandatory COVID test that he was late for. Houston decided to not play him as a healthy scratch and then obviously cut him. They had apparently had enough of his attitude, and it sounds like he was tired of the situation in Houston which is understandable. It's an unfortunate end for the NFL's leading tackler in 2020. The Titans picked him up off waivers due to his connection with Mike Vrabel, but it'll be a few weeks before he sees any playing time if at all.

--Kemoko Turay nabbed 2 more sacks here to give him 5 on the season. It's a good start to his young career, but I honestly don't see anything to get excited about. These were both hustle sacks, nothing he did to beat the offensive line (which is damning because this line is terrible).

Snap Counts of Interest

54 = Michael Pittman

54 = Zach Pascal

32 = TY Hilton

22 = Ashton Dulin

42 = Jack Doyle

31 = Mo Alie-Cox

43 = Brandin Cooks

31 = Nico Collins

30 = Chris Conley

32 = Pharaoh Brown

22 = Brevin Jordan

24 = Rex Burkhead

22 = Royce Freeman

R.C. Fischer

FFM

11 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Seahawks 30, 49ers 23

This game was somewhat back-and-forth, sometimes sloppy, sometimes hard-nosed. Either team could have won. The 49ers had four end zone shots/goal-to-go types at the end of the game and couldn’t score to tie/win. Seattle had a score off a 73-yard fake punt TD run to get this party started. It was a fun game to watch. It was evenly played…hard hitting and sloppy, mostly. Seattle won, and they deserved to – they had more energy in the end.

Seattle (4-8) wins a huge game to keep their season alive by the dimmest of hopes and having now two wins over SF may come back to help them in the wild card if they can ever get to it…they need to win out. Three of Seattle’s next 4 games are with HOU-CHI-DET…three great opportunities to win, which would book 7 wins. Week 15 they are at LAR…and that will be for the Seattle season, as every game is right now – Seattle needs to run the table to get to (9-7) and try and sneak into the wild card. The schedule can help them get there; they just have to do their part…no room for error. It’s a tall order, so they will likely finish with 7-8 wins in the end.

The overrated 49ers fall to (6-6) and have a more choppy schedule ahead. They have ATL and HOU ahead, so 8 wins is almost in the bag. They would need one more win to get to 9 wins and thus in the wild card discussion…one win out of the other three games being at CIN, at TEN, at LAR…three tough road games. Not going to be easy. We project they will slip into the 9-win group and have a wild card shot with wins over wild card contenders LAR, PHI, MIN already.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Best game I’ve seen Rashaad Penny (10-35-0, 1-27-0/1) have in a long time.

Rashaad Penny facts:

1) He’s a more talented, better version of Elijah Mitchell.

2) He’s more talented than Mitchell, but his O-Line is a disaster by comparison.

3) Penny has to contend with Adrian Peterson for goal line work, and with Travis Homer for PPR work.

4) Penny did some amazing pass protection in this game…which always endears head coaches.

5) Penny is always hurt, just when you think it’s ‘his time’…he falls down.

Well, for Week 14, the pendulum of ‘good luck’ has swung hard Penny’s way – AP is out…Homer is out. And no matter how bad the O-Line is, they are facing the Houston Texans…the run defense so bad it sunk below the awful Chargers to #32 in yards per game allowed (144.2) and is #31 in rush TDs allowed (20).

It’s a perfect set up for Penny this week. God, help him stay healthy. This is his chance to shine for his pending free agency. Alex Collins should be cleared but I think this will be Pete Carroll rewarding, riding, trying to get momentum going with Penny Week 14.

 -- I thought Russell Wilson (30-37 for 231 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) started to look more like his normal self here…some of that on a shaky SF pass defense.

Wilson starting to heat up + rookie WR Dee Eskridge (3-35-1/30 starting to show a spark…Metcalf-Lockett-Eskridge can be pretty salty if Eskridge can keep getting his sea legs in the NFL. He was hurt/out early and just now starting to get comfortable.

 -- Gerald Everett (4-7-0/6) cost Seattle winning this game by 2-3 scores. He had a pass right to his wide-open hands near the goal line, but as he went to turn up field for the easy score, he forgot to secure the catch…so, he bobbled the ball in his hands 2-3x and the last attempt to re-grab it, the ball right up to a defender 2-3 yards behind him – an easy TD turned no TD and a turnover.

Late in the game with Seattle trying to put SF away, a TE shuttle-pass up the middle near the goal line…Everett caught it and headed for the score and was hit/fumbled and turnover on the 1-yard line.

In another universe, this is a 2-TD game for Everett and everyone chasing him off waivers for Week 14. Not to be…

I have some FF-faith in the efforts they are making to get Everett the ball the past few weeks…he’s a TE1 threat for me every week.

 -- Elijah Mitchell (22-66-1, 3-18-0/3) was bottled up by a very good-looking Seattle run defense. He also got hurt in this game and is going to miss Week 14. Speaking of how Penny is like Mitchell…we know Penny is hurt all the time, well…Mitchell seems to be hurt/out about every 2-3 games, no? Three separate injuries causing him to miss games this season now.

I believe Jeff Wilson will be the lead dog Week 14, with pass game support from JaMycal Hasty. Wilson practiced in full THU and FRI, so I’d bet strong on him for FF to be like Mitchell's output.

 -- Wilson’s FF upside will be hurt if Deebo Samuel (DNP), the team’s #1 RB and part-time #1 WR, returns to action. Deebo is 50-50. I don’t know if he’ll be active, or if he’d take a normal workload if he is. I’d bet Deebo inactive one more week, but that’s just a hunch on my part. It’s going to be a big deal trying to figure out whether to trust him or not this week if he is active but on a ‘pitch count’.

Snap Counts of Interest:

62 = DKM

59 = Lockett

32 = Swaim

22 = Eskridge

29 = Penny

21 = Homer

18 = AP

02 = DeeJay Dallas

49 = Mitchell

02 = Wilson

01 = Hasty

57 = Sherfield

54 = Aiyuk

29 = J Jennings

Ross Jacobs

FFM

10 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Patriots 14, Bills 10

This game was without a doubt the most entertaining, interesting, and at the same time infuriating game I've ever watched.

What's that phrase RC and I always use? Belichick isn't a genius, he's just the smartest guy in a room full of idiots. Indeed.

So this game was played in some of the worst weather I've ever seen. 30 mph winds were whipping the ball all over the place. The kickers were missing 30 yard kicks in warmups. It was clear what the strategy would be. Run game and good defense, Belichick's specialty.

So the Patriots began pounding the run. Over and over and over and over. At one point they had called something like 30 straight running plays...and yet the Bills didn't adjust until very late in the game. It was bizarre to watch Sean McDermott, one of the smartest coaches in the league, consistently leave 2-3 guys playing off the line of scrimmage as if the Patriots were going to pass the ball. There was no way Mac Jones was going to be throwing the ball downfield with his popcorn arm, and yet the Bills would not stack the line and thus the Patriots averaged nearly 5 yards per carry for the game despite everyone knowing they were running every play.

And what was McDermott's plan of attack on offense? He tried to replicate what the Patriots were doing, but instead of a great offensive line and Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson as his RB's, McDermott tried to power run behind a terrible offensive line, Devin Singletary and slow ass Zach Moss.

Great plan Sean. You deserved to lose. You deserve to be in 2nd place in the AFC East behind the Patriots. You deserve all the losses in big games you've ever had to the Chiefs. You deserve all this because whenever you face actually good teams you crumble under pressure. You get complacent and conservative. You don't play to your team's strengths.

You know what they should have done? They should have run Josh Allen into the ground. They should have called power runs for Allen, option runs for Allen, rolled him out, moved the pocket, anything to get him on the move and let him use that cannon arm to cut through the wind on simple route concepts. They should have stacked the line on defense with every player they had and told their guys to shoot every open gap.

This game was winnable for the Bills. It should have been won. They are the more talented team. But they failed, again, because the coach didn't have a plan for an obvious bad weather game. He didn't have a plan for the obvious plan that Belichick was going to run. He didn't adjust when it became painfully obvious to every soul watching that game that the Patriots were laughing themselves silly watching their RB's run straight at the Bills time and time again.

Belichick isn't a genius. He's just the smartest guy in a room full of idiots. And now he's going to win the AFC East and grab the #1 seed in the entire AFC with a weak-armed, rookie QB that nobody else wanted and a bunch of B and C grade free agents. Congratulations NFL. You guys never cease to amaze me with how horribly you run your franchises. Hope you're ready to be Belichick's b***h for another 20 seasons.

The Patriots are up to 9-4 and have the inside track to the top seed, but they do have 3 potentially tough games remaining against the Colts, the Dolphins, and the Bills again. There is a lot that can happen, but I'll guess they finish out 2-2 for an 11-6 overall record (covering my over bet that I caught so much crap from RC and Xavier for...) which might be good enough but might be a 2 or 3 seed. Either way they are going to the playoffs and you really don't want to play them as usual.

Are they good enough to win a Superbowl? Yes. Are they the favorites? Unlikely. This team is a carbon copy of their early 2000's teams that won 3 championships, so obviously anything is possible.

The Bills fall to 7-5, but their remaining schedule is much easier than the Patriots. There is still room for them to snatch the division away, but they absolutely have to beat the Patriots in the rematch game. They also have to win their 3 cupcake games against the Panthers, Falcons, and Jets. They can afford to drop the game against the Bucs this week, but getting a win there would give them more breathing room obviously. I think they have a great chance to go 4-1 or 5-0 to finish the season and take the division on tiebreaks, but it's going to be close.

Fantasy Notes

--What do you want me to say about this one? Mac Jones literally just won a game while throwing 3 passes for 19 yards.

Josh Allen only completed half his passes for 145 yards.

The Patriots ran the ball 46 times for 222 yards.

Nothing about this game was typical or likely to be replicated.

--The most significant thing to happen was Damien Harris getting hurt. He's dealing with a hamstring injury, but we're still waiting on an update for that. Hammies are notoriously finicky though, so I'm going to guess he'll be out for at least a week to rest.

If so, Rhamondre Stevenson is a must start against the Colts. Honestly, he's been the more impressive back of the two for several weeks now. Whatever questions he had before the draft about his athleticism have been answered. The man looks like a sleeker version of LeGarrette Blount, a powerful, bruising runner but with surprising agility for his size. He also has very good hands for such a big man. If I were re-ranking all the rookie backs, Stevenson would be 2nd only to Javonte.

--If Harris is out Stevenson takes over primary duties, but don't overlook Brandon Bolden possibly getting 5-8 carries and 3-4-5 catches too.

--The spontaneous decision to essentially bench Matt Breida cost me a win this week...I'm not bitter. I'm not really sure what happened with that as Breida looked like he had earned a larger role in the offense the prior two weeks. Perhaps it was just a function of the Bills trying to lean on the power run game...I honestly don't know. I do know you can't trust Breida now.

Situations like this are why I typically try to just avoid messy, hot-hand, or rotational RBBC situations. Sometimes you guess correctly for a week or two, but too often you just get burned. Better to find guys that are the sole back in their offense no questions asked.

Snap Counts of Interest

28 = Devin Singletary

24 = Zach Moss

7 = Matt Breida

55 = Stefon Diggs

46 = Emmanuel Sanders

40 = Cole Beasley

R.C. Fischer

FFM

10 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Dolphins 20, Giants 9

This game was only 10-6 Miami after three quarters, but the Giants inability to create any offense to support their very good defense stayed true all game and finally smothered them out in the end. Both teams played their game…plodding offenses and good defense, but Miami’s offense is actually sparking right now so they took the game.

Miami has won five in a row and are pressuring my in the bag ‘under’ 9 wins bet on them from the preseason. The Dolphins are (6-7), but likely to finish (8-9), but it’s not a done deal yet. Miami is hot right now, but they are beating a bunch of garbage offenses/teams right now.

The Giants lose another winnable game to fall to (4-8). Too many injuries. Too crappy a QB play. They have no identity or spark on offense. NYG might get to 5-6 wins unless they want to quasi tank and stick with 4 wins. They own the Bears pick, so two top 10 draft picks coming for NYG next year….they can send them to Seattle for Russell Wilson.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Tua Tagovailoa (30-41 for 244 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT)…Tua is now 84-of-105 (81.0%) passing in his last 3 games. He’s on fire. The BTO (Baby Throw Offense) is working at a high level and defenses have no answer.

Nothing different happened in this game than their last several during this win streak…everything to Jaylen Waddle (9-90-0/11) and competent everything else.

DeVante Parker (5-62-0/5) returned to action. He doesn’t look special, just Tua is dealing, and Parker is a good option. Waddle still rules all the primary targets.

 -- Mike Gesicki (7-46-0/11) had a bigger game here, for targets…sometimes he is virtually unstoppable but he’s not getting the TD shots he used to. And his target counts have been erratic the last month or so. He’s still a TE1 threat every week, but no TDs is holding him back from TE1 scoring usually.

 -- I thought Mike Glennon (23-44 for 187 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) looked fine enough. He just suffered a bunch of drops, and he’s so slow afoot that any time pressure leaked through Glennon can’t slide away from it…he moves like a piano being pushed uphill but isn’t even on wheels. Despite that, with some time to set up in the pocket, Glennon was OK…his weapons are disinterested letdowns.

Glennon suffered a concussion, despite finishing the game. If he can’t go Week 14, recently grabbed off Buffalo’s Practice Squad QB Jake Fromm will be forced to start (assuming Dan Dimes is out again)…and if Fromm happens, then everything related is in trouble for NYG.

 -- I thought the receiver Glennon had the most connection with was Evan Engram (4-61-0/5)…and EE looked the best he has all year here. If Glennon is back for the LAC game Week 14, I think Engram could be a possible TE1 threat. With Jake Fromm…it’s trouble.

Kenny Golladay (3-37-0/5) had an encouraging start to this game but then fizzled out and got nicked up again.

I wish Kadarius Toney could get back in for some life to this offense, but he’s likely out again Week 14. Week 15 he might be back.

 -- The most exciting thing about this game was the young IDPs emerging…

MIAMI

Andrew Van Ginkel (5 tackles, 1 TFL) and Jaelen Phillips (5 tackles, 2 sacks) are on fire. Since Week 8, the two have combined for 29 QB hits. The New York Giants have 50 QB hits on the entire season.

Miami-DST v. NYJ Week 15 should be good, but Zach Wilson is starting to perk up. Week 16 at NO might be OK, depending upon Taysom’s hand. I don’t know if it is more schedule driven or not (my lean is that it is schedule), but the Miami-DST is definitely a hot play the past several weeks.

NY GIANTS

Quincy Roche (6 tackles, 1 sack) keeps making plays and standing out with pressure – he was cut by the Steelers in the preseason, another genius move by PIT.

Rookie pass rusher Azeez Ojulari (4 tackles, 1 sack) got his 6.5 sack on the season.

But the best thing for NYG, my guy, rookie CB Aaron Robinson (7 tackles, 1 PD) is recovered from injury, finally with the team and playing great football. He’s one of the best instinctual cover corner I’ve scouted, and he’s been an instant success in the pros in just a few weeks of play.

The future for the NYG-DST is bright if they can get any offense to help them.

Snap Counts of Interest:

44 = Gaskin

22 = Ahmed

02 = Laird

49 = Barkley

23 = Booker

52 = Slayton

38 = Golladay

27 = Ph Cooper

21 = J Ross

18 = Collin Johnson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

10 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Eagles 33, Jets 18

Most interesting, most RC-note-worthy game of the week. I expected it to be, because I wanted to rewatch my boys Zach Wilson and Gardner Minshew, who looked like they played a good+ game here on the live watch…but I wanted to savor it/study it on the rewatch. I did, but there was so much more to drink in and ruminate on.

As far as the game itself…it’s a quick analysis.

The Jets got out of the gates quickly. The Eagles matched their spark. Eventually the tide turned, and the Eagles just started running the ball about every play and keeping it away from the Jets in the 2nd-to-3rd-quarter and forced the Jets into desperate passing mode in the 4th-quarter while Philly just pounded/grinded it away on the ground to walk out with a nice win. The Jets gave them a-go for a quarter and half, but then Philly took control…impressive performance in a game that will be dismissed because ‘Jets’.

The Jets fall to (3-9). They still have a shot at a #1 draft pick, but not likely. Week 16 v. JAX could be/will be key for draft positioning. I’m guessing the Jets will win that game and give themselves 4 wins on the season and maybe be a top 5 pick.

The Eagles have won three of their last 4 games to get to (6-7)…but we projected them with an (8-9) finish, and out of the playoffs likely -- but four division games remain and if they get hot they could get to 9 wins and have some wild card hopes.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let’s start with the main reason why I was so excited to rewatch this game, after the live watch Sunday (along with all the other games at the same time, so I could only focus so much…), and that is Zach Wilson (23-38 for 226 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT).

I left Sunday’s watch thinking it was the best NFL game I’d seen him play…and it looked more like the Zach Wilson I scouted as the best QB in the 2021 NFL Draft. I left the rewatch/study KNOWING it was the best NFL game I’d seen him play, and DEFINITELY like the Wilson I scouted at BYU.

How can I describe Wilson best? He has a taller, less athletic Kyler Murray vibe to his play. A rocket launcher for an arm, but also can see things developing and can fire strikes right into tight windows. Rookie Kyler had struggles…one play you’d see genius, as a passer, then the next he’d make throws that made no sense. Three years later, Kyler is arguably the best passer in the NFL…he has experience, the best O-Line he’s had (still needs work), and weapons all around…4 legit WRs to work with and now a legit TE.

Wilson has those Kyler rookie year issues right now and then some…not NFL-experienced enough, a horrific O-Line, and no weapons around him (except one, which we’ll get to in a moment). Add those things up, and you’re gonna get 2 TDs/7 INTs in his first three games.

Week 12 we saw some flashes of ‘it’ from Wilson, but he took a huge step forward in Week 13/this game…Wilson starting to get comfortable on an NFL field. He’s finally using the dump-off to the RBs to his advantage (still more work needed by him, but he’s heading in the right direction), and that short game is setting up his sizzling downfield game.

If Wilson had been throwing (by my mind’s eye/memory) 60-70% of this passes poorly the first half of the season – throwing into coverage, forcing deep plays, misfiring open receivers…then this game he was 80/20 or better on the money with his throws. The only thing that kept him from a 300+ yard game is the lack of ability to catch by some of his receivers.

Zach Wilson is the better, more svelte Baker Mayfield…the less athletic (but not a bad runner/escaper at all), taller, one notch down vision version of Kyler Murray. This was a great step forward…and he might have another dud or two before season’s end, but he is progressing.

…and he is so clearly better than Trevor Lawrence that everyone in NFL scouting that thought otherwise should be fired for not seeing it. So, if that happened…it would be like me, and Ross and a handful of other people left in the profession.

Now, is the time to buy Zach Wilson in Dynasty…as a #2-3 QB for your future, available for a price lower than it should be. And it will still be a bargain in the offseason.

The pressure on Wilson’s FF performance ahead is not on him, but can the Jets attract real weapons…and can a guy playing in that stadium/climate really thrive for FF? Josh Allen does…and Wilson is a smaller, skinnier version of good Josh Allen. Wilson has a very underrated howitzer of an arm. But Allen has WAY better coaching. His future is murky in NY, so I don’t want to pay much to take a look…you shouldn’t have to.

 -- I love Gardner Minshew (20-25 for 242 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs), but watching these two guys work…it was beyond clear that Wilson is far superior…long-term, and in this game.

That’s not a slam on Minshew…it’s a compliment to Wilson.

Minshew did a bad thing here…real bad. He won a game, looked efficient…looked like a traditional NFL QB – and has inadvertently created a QB controversy. The fans…Philly fans, especially, will scout franchise QBs based on ‘what happened last week’ with no context, just caveman…’win good, loss bad’ reactions.

Not only did Minshew win a game, but he showed a style more like a traditional QB, so now the next time Jalen Hurts loses/looks bad…everyone will call for a Minshew change and speak glowingly about the need for a traditional QB. With fans, Philly fans especially, whatever is the opposite of the bad thing that just happened is what they want that moment – football fans are like petulant children who are never disciplined. When their team has a stiff QB not winning every game, then they all talk about how the NFL is a moving towards the highly mobile QB and how their team needs to get one, and thus Liberty College’s Malik Willis is a top mock draft pick, despite that being idiotic on every level (Willis is not a top pick QB talent). When a fan’s team DOES get the highly mobile QB, and he doesn’t win every game, then all the ‘we need a next Brady type’ of talk dominates. You can never win with the fans, but that’s why they love the game – never-ending ‘shoulda’ talk.

And part of the stupidity of weekly changes in QB-need philosophies that are based on ‘feelings’ and ‘emotions’ from last week’s game is also the core of NFL team management. How else do you explain a team (Philly) built for traditional passer QB play being led by a purely mobile QB? Minshew playing well, even though it was against the Jets, has opened the door for an alternative…no different than Wentz v. Hurts 2020-21.

I think the Eagles will go with Hurts…UNTIL the media and fan pressure are too much. Hurts will have his Eagles (and probably entire) career ruined by the media and never-satisfied fans. Hurts won’t get benched this season, no matter how bad the pressure (unless Hurts is a disaster) – but who the QB will be Week 1 of 2022 will have a lot to do with how Hurts finishes 2021. Hurts has the locker room, but anything-not-Hurts has the media and fans backing. Drafting a QB is on the table as well.

Minshew did fine here. He wasn’t as good as Wilson, but he was good…and then handed off mostly the final half.

 -- Alright, I liked my scouting ahead on Wilson in Jan. 2021. I liked my Minshew scouting back in Jan. 2019 before his draft. Now, scouting I’m not pleased with…

I’m starting to think Elijah Moore (6-77-1/12) IS the better ‘rookie Moore WR’ from 2021…not Rondale. I’ve been boasting of this great Rondale Moore to be unleashed in the NFL, and it’s been…not that exciting, so far. Nothing unleashed quite yet. Elijah…I thought I saw some minor issues on tape that conflicted with his Pro Day elite speed/agility times, but I think those times are more real than not now…and I know he has great hands. He looks like this year’s best WR prospect to me right now.

I was going heavy Rondale all preseason, when I should’ve been going Elijah. I think that now, there’s still time for Rondale to take the lead (in my heart) back in 2022, when he’s a starter with Kyler. It’s not a slam of Rondale, just that Elijah is playing so well.

I’ve watched many established NFL WRs get gobbled up by Darius Slay this season. I just watched Elijah Moore (via Zach Wilson) go spank Slay several times in this game. If Wilson is going to start clicking, then Moore is going to keep rising. Wilson was a problem for Moore a few weeks ago, but now Wilson might be turning the corner. But I think teams are going to go double Elijah now in response, so we’ll see where the FF output heads to the rest of 2021.

Bottom line…Wilson is the best QB from this raft, and Elijah might be its best all-around WR. The Jets done good.

 -- Speaking of ‘top things’…we finally saw THAT Dallas Goedert (6-105-2/6)…the Goedert that can be the best TE in the NFL. He just needed Ertz gone and a non-run-first QB at the helm. This was the best I’ve seen Goedert look. Sadly, for him, he’ll have Hurts back Week 15 and Goedert goes back to being a random TE1 hopeful, not a top 3 TE…like he should be.

If the Eagles change QBs to something more traditional in 2022, then Goedert is a top 3 Fantasy TE in 2022.

 -- Minshew wore out Goedert, but not DeVonta Smith (2-15-0/4) or Jaelen Reagor (1-7-0/1). Minshew didn’t need to. The Goedert thing was money…and then they just ran the ball a ton and got out of there.

Smith looks fine, he just can’t get into any rhythm in this passing game of low targets, inaccurate but playmaking Hurts isn’t a pass game booster at all.

 -- Miles Sanders (24-124-0, 3-22-0/3) had a big day…but note that we had a switch to a traditional offense, and they were facing the Jets. Sanders is fine/OK, but he’s been bleh with Hurts at QB.

Boston Scott has been so good for weeks…so, of course, zero touches this week but was returning kicks. NFL teams stick with their pick at RB and will not change unless injury forces it.

 -- A running back who didn’t hold his starting role for long, Tevin Coleman (11-58-0, 3-19-0/4) has it back due to Michael Carter injury. TC looks solid/good and I don’t think Carter is coming back this week or maybe even next, so Coleman still has some legs here as at least getting 10+ touches a game.

BUT…Coleman has a concussion issue right now (as of this writing) – he may be out Week 14 and Ty Johnson/Austin Walter may take the reigns for a week. Against the Saints run defense, I want neither.

 -- Corey Davis (2-15-0/3) is done for the year with a core muscle injury. He was a bad idea as a #1 WR anyway.

Denzel Mims (1-4-0/1) is still buried.

Jamison Crowder (4-62-0/4) may have a little run coming up if Elijah Moore starts getting doubled.

Snap Counts of Interest:

28 = Ty Johnson

23 = Coleman

08 = Walter

68 = Goedert

28 = Stoll

27 = Tyree Jackson

41 = Sanders

27 = Gainwell

03 = B Scott