Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st, obviously everyone is healthy, and running our data to the NFL schedule and seeing 'what happens' and then taking that right through the playoffs.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
When the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all this in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Weeks 1-3
-- Three undefeated teams in the league after the first three weeks, none of them a 'shocker': BUF, CIN, KC.
-- And three winless teams…ARI, LAR, CAR.
-- Atlanta (2-1) starts out leading the NFC South.
-- The entire AFC South is (1-2) to begin the season.
-- The Jets tough schedule weighs on them, a (1-2) start and last place in the AFC East.
-- Surprise .500+ team out of the gates…Washington (2-1), tied for the NFC East lead with all the team in that division at (2-1).
AFC East W L PCT
BUF … 3 - 0 = 1.000
NE …. 2 - 1 = 0.667
MIA … 2 - 1 = 0.667
NYJ … 1 - 2 = 0.333
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AFC North W L PCT
CIN … 3 - 0 = 1.000
CLE … 2 - 1 = 0.667
BAL … 2 - 1 = 0.667
PIT … 1 - 2 = 0.333
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AFC South W L PCT
IND … 1 - 2 = 0.333
TEN … 1 - 2 = 0.333
JAX … 1 - 2 = 0.333
HOU … 1 - 2 = 0.333
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AFC West W L PCT
KC …. 3 - 0 = 1.000
DEN … 1 - 2 = 0.333
LV … 1 - 2 = 0.333
LAC … 1 - 2 = 0.333
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NFC East W L PCT
WAS … 2 - 1 = 0.667
DAL … 2 - 1 = 0.667
NYG … 2 - 1 = 0.667
PHI … 2 - 1 = 0.667
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NFC North W L PCT
MIN … 2 - 1 = 0.667
DET … 2 - 1 = 0.667
GB …. 1 - 2 = 0.333
CHI … 1 - 2 = 0.333
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NFC South W L PCT
ATL … 2 - 1 = 0.667
NO …. 1 - 2 = 0.333
TB …. 1 - 2 = 0.333
CAR … 0 - 3 = 0.000
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NFC West W L PCT
SF …. 2 - 1 = 0.667
SEA … 2 - 1 = 0.667
ARI … 0 - 3 = 0.000
LAR … 0 - 3 = 0.000
