R.C. Fischer

FFM

06 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Bengals 34, Chiefs 31

 

Rewatching this was a treat.

Heck, watching it live was a treat. One of the best games of the 2021 season to watch, for me…as a fan of such things. I called for the upset. I thought this could be the moment where the Bengals showed they are the better team than the Chiefs in the AFC…possibly the Bengals proving they are the best team in the entire AFC.

Rewatching this game quickly reminded me of a reality that I had forgotten since the live watch -- the fact that the Chiefs took a 14-0 lead in this game right away. Think of the gravity of what the Bengals just did…in a critical game for both sides, a possible coming of age moment for Cincy…one where you knew the Chiefs would use their experience and just manhandle the Bengals…the gravity, the reality of the Bengals dropping down 14 points right away and the football world that predicted ‘this’ would happen, and now it was happening – and then the Bengals took those initial punches and grinded their way back to the lead…and the win.

It was not a fluky win…it was the Bengals doing what the Chiefs usually do – get down to an inferior opponent, and then hit the gas and get right back into the game and go on to win and everyone forgets they were down at the start. The Bengals are better than the Chiefs…now…and for the future. Why? Because Joe Burrow is better than Patrick Mahomes, and Andy Reid is not a secret ‘advantage’, at best he’s a non-factor…at worst he’s holding this whole thing back from the heights it should go.

How dominant/great is Aaron Rodgers? He won a Super Bowl in 2010 and hasn’t been back since. He’s (7-8) in the playoffs since.

Same question/statement on Drew Brees, only he won his in 2009…and never went back. He’s (5-7) in the playoffs since the title season.

Ditto Ben Roethlisberger winning the title in the 2008 season…he’s (5-8) in the playoffs since the 2008 title season.

It’s very possible for great QBs to get their Super Bowl win early in their career, and then never return for a decade+. And it’s not because the QB suddenly isn’t very good. They play great for a decade – it’s the coaching and personnel around them that holds them back, to a degree.

Tom Brady isn’t the raw talent Rodgers is/was…but he always gets to the Super Bowl (and is (34-11 in the playoffs in his career). Joe Burrow is our closest ‘next Brady’. This game/win wasn’t a blip…it was an insurrection. The Bengals have pushed their way past the Chiefs in the AFC…now, and for the foreseeable future.

The Chiefs still have a chance at the #1 seed in the AFC, but they probably will fall short behind Tennessee…likely to face the Chargers/Raiders or Colts, either of which could beat them in the 1st-round.

The Bengals still have a chance at the #1 seed, but it would involve both Tennessee and KC losing, so not likely happening. Cincy will be the dangerous #3 seed and could meet the Chiefs again in the 2nd-round of the playoffs. In a rematch, everyone will assume the Chiefs will not be caught unaware and that their experience will take over for the young Bengals and defeat them…just like they thought would happen in this game. I’ll take the Bengals in a rematch, even if at KC. The Bengals are the tougher team with the better QB.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The biggest takeaway note for me from this game was the contrast of Ja’Marr Chase (11-266-3/12) and Tyreek Hill (6-40-0/10).

Let me set some ground rule statements before I make a sweeping reactionary comment…

1) I was against (scouting-wise) Ja’Marr Chase ever being a real NFL star. I thought he was an OK/good WR talent, a great athlete with question marks – my take as a scout pre-NFL Draft. And I thought he’d be a bit lost in the WR shuffle/mix for the Bengals post-NFL Draft…a random WR3 type player not a WR1 star.

2) I have watched Chase closely from the preseason on, a fascinating scouting dilemma…I, on one side saying he’s OK/good…with the entire football community on the other side of the scouting debate (as is often the case) saying he’s generational. Actually, there was no debate…there never is in the NFL…everyone believes the same, and when I’m opposite all of them, I’m just written off as ‘a nut’ or a ‘football nerd’…someone trying to be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.

People believe in the media’s lockstep football analysis more seriously, more fervently than they do the tenets of their own religion/belief system – and that’s a fact.

Watching Chase this entire year, I’m still not fully swayed that he is a ‘generational’ WR talent…but he is good, worthy, etc. He had the same numbers as Deebo Samuel this season (Deebo better all-around)…and we’re not all running around calling Deebo ‘generational’. Big production doesn’t necessarily mean ‘generational’. However, I can agree – he’s gifted, and my scouting undersold/undervalued him…especially his fit with Cincy.

Whether I’m right or wrong about Chase’s abilities, as things played out, we can all agree…he produced big-time numbers in 2021 and there’s no reason to think he won’t do so ahead.

3) I don’t think Ja’Marr Chase will ever be the overall weapon/talent that Tyreek Hill is. Tyreek is ‘special’, the once in a generation/lifetime that I’ve seen. Ja’Marr Chase, by contrast, is just really good/dangerous…he’s not Tyreek-like.

With all that said, I just watched Ja’Marr Chase get 12 targets all over the field…passes thrown to him whether he was covered or not. At the same time, on the other side of the field, I watched Tyreek Hill as a mostly decoy again getting non-exciting targets while KC ran several ‘tight end as wildcat’ plays, because they are super clever.

One of Tyreek-Ja’Marr had 2-3-6x the output of the other…the same guy who was on the winning team, and whose QB desperately went to him multiple times when the game was on the line. While the other guy was ‘taken away’…again.

What good does it do me to FF-possess the more talented guy via some esoteric, nuanced scouting of his abilities…while he is ‘taken out’ by the opposing team and/or ‘used as a decoy’ by some dunce HC/O-C? Why wouldn’t I rather have the lesser pretty piece of art who wasn’t used as a decoy and who wasn’t taken out by his opposing defense…and he has the better QB talent to work with, or just as good worst case…and who is seven years younger (for Dynasty purposes)?

Won’t the Chiefs have the same system, coaches, QB, scheme, etc., in 2022? Ditto Cincinnati? How will Tyreek go higher in production in 2022+?

We’ll be debating the Tyreek short- and long-term valuation questions over at the Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball (DOBB) area of FFM in the upcoming weeks.

 

 -- We also got to watch Joe Burrow (30-39 for 446 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) crush Patrick Mahomes (26-35 for 259 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 2-25-0). Couple thoughts on this…

1) Mahomes ended up besting Burrow by 1+ FF PPG (4pts per pass TD) for the season 21.8 to 20.5 PPG.

However, since Week 3, Burrow scored 21.2 FF PPG to Mahomes’s 20.7.

2) I keep saying Burrow is better/equal to Mahomes as a talent, but that Mahomes is the better FF option. But is he? What if Burrow just needed time to get recovered trusting from his major leg injury last season?

3) Remember this summer when reports were that Burrow was very inaccurate and very hesitant/aware of his legs/knees in training camp? Guess he’s all better now?

4) The value of the FF QB is dropping, going forward…if Burrow is joining the party. It was Mahomes-Allen-Herbert-Kyler as the FF elites in the preseason, for us. Those four, plus…

…Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers won’t go away. Four plus these two…

And Burrow makes seven high end options.

Notice what that group of seven has in common? Since Week 3, they make up seven of the top 8 FF PPG 4pts per) QBs in Fantasy. Jalen Hurts is the outsider that was in the top 8 party (#6). Also, of the seven QBs we are focused on here – none of them are really runners, except Kyler can run a little bit but it’s not his lead punch (like Hurts, Lamar, etc.)

Again, QB valuation in this new FF world of QB talent flooding the NFL from college…big topic to debate this offseason.

Additional note…

Burrow has Higgins-Chase-Boyd to work with.

Mahomes has Tyreek…then DeMarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle.

When are people going to start slamming the ineptness, the ruined opportunity by KC management to surround Mahomes with ‘things’? Aaron Rodgers always had a point with his disdain for the way Green Bay staffed around him. Is Mahomes the next to cry out? He should be.

 

 -- Is Darrel Williams (14-88-2, 3-19-0/3) the RB to own for the Chiefs?

I know he is now/Week 18, with CEH hurt, but won’t the Chiefs likely ‘stand pat’ at RB going into 2022 season?

CEH + Williams, and Derrick Gore? We’ll see…Darrel is an unrestricted free agent, but I bet he’ll stay with KC. CEH has to stay, which means the Chiefs won’t draft a real RB threat.

If the Chiefs re-sign Williams…won’t that be a pretty powerful statement on where they stand with CEH?

Just wondering…

More things to interpret his offseason for the Chiefs, for Dynasty/Fantasy…

 

 -- Is Travis Kelce (5-25-1/7) starting the downslide on his career? Not that he will be bad in 2022, but that he’s just another good TE, not the elite TE anymore? He finishes the 2021 season as the #3 PPG PPR TE. He’ll be 33 years old in the 2022 season.

The king has been knocked off his throne.

Speaking of all things Cincy are better than all things Chiefs, all of a sudden… I wonder what the projections would be like if the Bengals draft/sign a serious receiving threat TE into the mix for 2022+? Like what if Evan Engram winds up here? Just daydreaming up things…

C.J. Uzomah (4-32-0/6) doesn’t cut it and is a free agent in 2022.

 

 -- Lost in all the Ja’Marr explosions in this game was Tee Higgins (3-62-0/5), the WR who was previously wrecking everything on the stat sheets in recent weeks.

Since Week 10, in PPR, Ja’Marr Chase is the #5 PPG WR in Fantasy. #6 is…Tee Higgins.

Before this game, for the season, on a PPG basis, Chase was the #10 PPR PPG WR in Fantasy. Higgins 0.1 PPG behind him at #11.  

Yet, the difference in love/perception/media between Ja’Marr and Tee is a huge chasm…creating a value in pursuing Higgins in 2022.

 

 -- Another way the Bengals are better than the Chiefs is…their defense. And the Bengals rebuilt their defense from hot garbage in 2020 to really good in 2021, and all due to ‘via free agency’. The CB duo of Chidobe Awuzie (10 tackles) and Mike Hilton (5 tackles, 1 PD) have been really, really good. Trey Hendrickson (0 tackles, 2 QB hits) has been better than expected as a stud pass rusher.

All three of those players were on other teams last season.

The Bengals are 1-2 offensive lineman away from being the best all-around team in football.

…led by a coach (Zac Taylor) who shouldn’t have ever been hired as a head coach, but no one really wanted this job/to work with the Bengals. But possessing Joe Burrow and staying out of his way is the best coaching attribute anyone could have. Just ask Ed Orgeron and Joe Brady.

FYI, Urban Meyer didn’t see much in Joe Burrow at Ohio State…

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

64 = Chase

58 = Higgins

54 = Boyd

07 = Stanley Morgan

 

49 = Darr Williams

08 = D Gore

 

52 = Tyreek

39 = Dem Robinson

29 = Pringle

19 = Hardman

12 = J Gordon

 

 

 

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season early-signups start January 6th, 2022, NoonET**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies. 

Ross Jacobs

FFM

05 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Chargers 34, Broncos 13 (By Ross Jacobs)

 

While the Chargers were definitely the better team here and led comfortably for most of the game, it really wasn't as big a blowout as the score would indicate. LAC got a kickoff return TD and then a bomb to Mike Williams in the 4th quarter to finish the rout.

LA has been a perplexing team this year. At times they look like they are ready to take that next step and become an AFC power, and then the next week they'll lay an egg against a weaker opponent. I don't think this beatdown of a dying Denver team is a sign that they are ready to make some noise in the playoffs.

Obviously Herbert is good enough on his own to beat anyone, but I still don't see the consistency or firepower I want to from this offense. Just one example is the baffling treatment of Mike Williams this year. He should be a much bigger part of this offense. You saw it on full display with his 45 yard TD here. And yet they inexplicably ignore him for chunks of time.

I do think the Chargers should beat the Raiders next week to make the playoffs, but it's not guaranteed by any means. LV is good enough to beat them for sure. If they win they likely draw the Chiefs in the 1st round of the playoffs. It's a matchup they can definitely win as they've already beaten KC once and competed well the second time. They aren't afraid of the Chiefs anymore.

The Broncos dropped out of the playoff race with this loss, but have a chance to screw a division rival next week if they could somehow beat the Chiefs and knock them into the 4th seed. Probably won't happen.

They'll head into 2022 looking for a new QB and possibly a new head coach.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes

 

--The most irritating thing from this game had to be the Javonte Williams dud. It certainly contributed to my championship loss and likely many FFM'ers too.

So what happened? How was Houston able to run all over the Chargers but Williams and the Broncos couldn't?

It's a multifaceted answer. The first thing is that Pat Shurmur is one of the worst offensive coordinators in the league. Denver should have been able to run the ball easily, and at times they did. But for whatever reason Shurmur decided this would be a good week to attack the Chargers through the air into the strength of their defense, all while having a godawful pass blocking offensive line trying to protect Drew Lock and half the receivers out for the week. Great idea.

He finally figured out he should run the ball but not until later in the when they were already down and LA was teeing off on the run.

Another part of it was Denver was trying to run zone blocking and that clearly wasn't working as the Chargers were crashing defenders off the edge. I think the way to attack this run defense is with power runs straight up the gut. Another great job by Shurmur not knowing how to exploit a weakness even with an entire year's worth of film.

The third part was that the defense was clearly much more worried about Javonte than Gordon. They would stack the line when he was in. When Gordon was lined up in the backfield they didn't particularly care.

And the final part is that Javonte got many more short yardage carries than Gordon. They were counting on him to pick up 3rd and 4th downs and he did, but it hampered his averages.

I don't believe the LAC run defense has been fixed. In fact, I'd venture to say that Josh Jacobs is a top 3 back against them this week if you happen to have him.

 

--I believe Drew Lock (18-25 for 245 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) should get another crack at the starting job next year. He played well here and the surrounding circumstances were not in his favor.

With a piss poor offensive line, no WR's, and throwing into one of the better pass defenses in the league, Lock did about as well as could be expected. He was under siege all day, constantly had pressure in his face, and yet he still completed 72% of his passes and threw a TD.

I'm standing by my statement that he looks like Josh Allen-lite. That's pretty darn good, but I don't believe Denver will give him another try next year. They already made up their minds about him when they brought in Bridgewater. He'll still be on the roster because he's signed through 2023, but most likely they'll try to trade for a star QB this off-season and Lock will never see the field.

IF Lock gets a chance somehow, and if they can improve the offensive line, I think he has a chance to be a shock QB1 next year...

 

--Noah Fant (6-92-1/7) gave us all a reminder here of how good he can be. He's got as much upside and talent as any TE in the league, right up there with Kelce, Andrews, Kittle, and Pitts.

His catch and run here through the middle of the Chargers defense was a subtle work of art. It's easy to forget how big he is when he moves that smoothly and gracefully. I think it even caught the Chargers defense off guard because 4 or 5 of them all kind of paused for a second thinking someone would tackle him, but Fant just raced right through the middle of a crowd like they weren't even there.

Most of Fant's stats came in the final quarter as Lock realized nobody on the defense could cover him. If he had been throwing it to Fant the whole game, Fant might have had 150+ yards. It's a sign of what could be possible next year under the right circumstances...

 

--Tre McKitty (3-22-0/3) got some extended time with Cook and Parham out. He was still playing behind Stephen Anderson but that won't last long. It's the first halfway decent look we've got at McKitty, but small sample size so it's hard to draw conclusions.

I'd say he looks serviceable. He can play. I'd probably lump him in with Tommy Tremble from the 2021 class. Nowhere near Pitts and a bit behind Freiermuth as a talent, but not as much as you might think. He could probably work his way into the TE1 conversation someday courtesy of Justin Herbert.

 

 

IDP Notes

 

--Jonas Griffith (12 tackles) did it again. It's beyond obvious now that he can play. He's not super impressive to watch, but he just finds his way to the ball. I always compare him to Azeez Al-Shaair for that reason, and both guys have grown on me the more I've watched them, but of the two I actually like Griffith better.

He's forced Denver to consider him at LB in 2022. There are still lots of good LB's on this roster, but between his level of play and the very real possibility that a new coaching staff will be in place next year, Griffith very well might be a starter next fall. A new staff would be beneficial to him because they shouldn't care about who was drafted where and will play the better players. That would be Griffith at LB.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest

 

52 = Sutton

43 = Seth Williams

36 = Kendall Hinton

 

53 = Fant

30 = Okwuegbunam

 

30 = Javonte

30 = Gordon

 

56 = Big Mike

49 = Allen

32 = Guyton

31 = Palmer

 

52 = Anderson

35 = McKitty

 

39 = Ekeler

25 = Jackson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

05 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: 49ers 23, Texans 7

 

The Texans led this game 7-3 at the half. The Texans were only down 10-7 after three quarters. The simple truth is – the 49ers are really not that much better than the Texans-type teams. SF is an OK team that is capable of hanging with the big boys as much as they scuffle with bottom tier teams. They just aren’t that good…they’re not bad…they’re just ‘not good’…not a real title contender.

As the 49ers were scuffling with the Texans, suddenly the refs started helping out like they all had a bet on SF here. There was a sequence of penalties that I won't waste time going over in detail, but they totally changed a series/the game – and on replay it was ridiculously obvious that they were not penalties…leaving the game TV analysts speechless. Within all that there was a San Fran fumble that was reversed for ‘runner progress stopped’ that was ridiculous. On top of that, the Texans would get phantom defensive PIs called on them, and the next series the 49ers DBs would maul the Houston WRs…and ‘no call’. It was maybe the worst officiated game I’ve seen this season…all against one team/for one team.

The 49ers then pulled away aided by their gifts, in the 4th-quarter, for a two score win. It should’ve been closer or a loss, actually.

The 49ers luckily move to (9-7) and are in a ‘win and in’ or ‘lose and probably out’ Week 18. They face the Rams, so it won’t be easy. I, personally, hope they lose and miss out. The Saints deserve it more than SF, to me.

Houston loses their two-game win streak and falls to (4-12) and they play in a huge game of national interest vs. TEN Week 18. The Titans win and they are the #1 seed, so I bet Houston goes all out to spoil this highly watched contest – but they’ll probably get mauled by the Titans.

*We’re gonna spend some extra time on Trey Lance in this report, and that will be at the end.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Elijah Mitchell (21-119-0, 2-11-1/2) returned from injury and came back and dominated the RB touches…as has happened before this season. Mitchell is so locked in as the #1 RB here…for 2021, and 2022+…for as long as Kyle Shanahan is there, and for as long as Mitchell can stay healthy.

Trey Sermon is not even a consideration, from the looks of things.

Mitchell is not flashy, but he has a knack for finding his way through and to holes…like what Jordan Howard does/has done his whole career. RBs who just have a sixth sense about where to run in the interior. Mitchell’s style needs a good O-Line to go with it, and he has that with SF.

 

 -- One of my biggest regrets of the 2021 season was pushing to trade Deebo Samuel (7-19-0, 3-63-1/6) midseason because I didn’t think his hot streak could continue. But it has. I’m still befuddled how he’s done it, watching all the game tape of this season. Not that he’s bad, but he always found a way to score a TD about every week, even if just in the run game, and half of them seemed like blind luck/good fortune. 13 TDs this season for Deebo.

I am not dying from any Deebo trades, as we mostly traded him for good things…but things acquired probably not as hot as Deebo stayed, perhaps.

And, I don’t wanna beat myself up too bad – we were the ones pushing Deebo over Brandon Aiyuk (4-94-0/6) in the preseason when NO ONE else (I saw) was doing that in FF rankings preseason. I was only able to trade Deebo, if I did, midseason because…I got him…cheap in the preseason.

I still don’t think he keeps this up into 2022, but...

 

 -- A few IDP notes…

Speaking of scouting pride, how about Houston rookie DT Roy Lopez (5 tackles, a season high) this season? One of our DEEP sleeper finds in the 2021 NFL Draft scouting process, or #3 DT for the 2021 Draft…barely in anyone’s top 300 for the NFL Draft – and he is rolling top 10 in total tackles among all DTs this season to date. Quite a feat for a non-hyped rookie.

Another CFM fave is coming back to life…SF reclamation project edge rusher Jordan Willis (1 tackles, 1 sack) has 3.0 sacks in his last 5 games. He has yet to have an NFL season with more than 2.5 sacks until he landed in SF and started making a difference. He looks pretty decent off the edge as a situational pass rusher.

A CFM ‘hate’ pass rusher, nationally acclaimed in the draft, Arden Key (1 tackle, 1 sack) is also having the 49ers do a reclamation project with him as well. 6.0 sacks this season, after three years bouncing around the NFL prior, with 3.0 total sacks to show for it. Still not a fan.

 

 -- OK, Trey Lance (16-23 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 8-31-0)…

He had a good FF game…mostly worthy of the low-end QB1 label we applied to him for Week 17. I expected more, but I have to note…he had a sweet QB run TD in this game, called back for a BS penalty that later resulted in a San Fran FG…that rush TD would have put him in as a strong QB1 for the week.

But…how did Lance ‘look’ in his 2nd start, from a scouting perspective? Ross (a very pro-Lance scout) and I took to a chat after rewatching the game to compare notes. Here is a transcript of that chat…

 

RC: Ok, we got Trey Lance's 2nd start. This one (HOU) an easier opponent than when he faced red hot Arizona Week 5.

After watching the tape back of this HOU start, what are your general feelings on Lance at the moment -- highly encouraged/feel even better, feel about the same as before (pro-Lance as best in class rookie QB), or a little rattled by what you saw here?

Ross: I definitely don't feel better or encouraged. I thought there were some slight improvements, and you still see the occasional "wow!" throw, but by and large it was still a lot of pre-planned throws, bad decisions, and inaccurate passes. I know it's only been a year of practice so far, but I wanted to see more growth than this.

RC: I am in the same boat. Every time he makes a good play, he then makes a head scratcher to bring me back to worry.

RC: He's the ultimate...'whatever you want to see...you can see' player right now.

RC: You can see flashes of great...then flashes of 'he's never going to 'get it, is he?' moments still...too much.

Ross: Exactly. I knew he had flaws coming out. He clearly wasn't a ready product. But what had my hopes so high was his newness to the position and the idea that he could grow into being a real QB with time. But now we're a year in and I'm not seeing the rapid improvement I expected.

RC: Problems I see...

RC: (1) He still locks on to his first read.

RC: (2) When he runs, he gets tackled way too easy. He leaves so many 3rd & 1s/short, 4th & 1s/short for his size...it's strange.

RC: It's like he has a sixth-sense for not getting a first-down

Ross: I was going to mention that last part as well. He looks like Kaepernick! I expected more power from him. I knew I saw the raw speed and agility in college, but I may have been fooled about his size seeing him run over Div II defenders.

RC: He has the speed, and movement but when tacklers descend on him, it's like he pulls up and then that allows him to get hit and momentum goes backwards. 

Ross: I wonder if Kyle told him to try to protect himself.

RC: Everything is still very jittery, but...the 'what if it becomes un-jittery' has to be taken very FF-seriously.

RC: I don’t think he got that message from Kyle or he'd slide more.

RC: I think he's surprised he isn’t running over people.

RC: He tries and then is blown dead on the spot or backwards.

Ross: He has to be taken seriously for fantasy regardless. At absolute worst he's still in the Taysom/Hurts category for fantasy as a QB1 just because of the running. But you're right that if he ever unlocks the real QB potential Josh Allen-style, he would be off the charts.

RC: Other crafty runners seem to find a crevasse or make a juke to not take the brunt of hits but find the extra momentum forward. He doesn't usually.

RC: I wondered, after watching the tape today, if Kyle Shanahan is having regrets about this.

Ross: I believe Kyle is. I think he's getting nervous that Lance isn't progressing faster.

Ross: There's a reason he keeps going back to Jimmy 100%. It's gotten so bad I'm starting to worry that they might not trade/cut Jimmy this off-season after all...

RC: Like FF owners, we talk ourselves into something from an emotion of the moment...and then we act on it like our lives depended upon it.

Like when you have an FF player you want to deal away because you hate them...you push the player to everyone and take the first deal that comes along reasonable. And if you see something in a player and get really into them and you want them -- you just grovel to the current owner offering more and more to get that player because you made your mind up, I must have this player, so you won't rest til you do it...and then you do all based on an emotional moment you had/witnessed.

RC: It's like Tyreek Hill Week 17 end/today…

RC: People who won titles this week despite Tyreek, are like...well, that was a bad week for targets but it's cool.

RC: But the people who lost titles with Tyreek doing nothing 2 weeks in a row -- he's been 'figured out' or he's 'in a bad spot with KC'...or the 'best days are behind him', and now these folks have made a mandate in their minds -- I MUST trade him this offseason (Dynasty) or vow never tr draft him again (redraft).

RC: Same Tyreek performance interpreted two diff ways, one way caused the MUST reaction to solve so you feel like you're doing something to fix the (perceived) problem.

RC: I wonder if Kyle watched some Kyler or Russ or whatever the past offseason and is like I NEED A MOBILE QB TOO, IMAGINE THE PLAYS I CAN DESIGN!!!

Ross: That's exactly what he did. I think it's been building for 2-3 years now but still the same result.

Ross: And Lance did show some nice passing ability in college to justify the hope. There's a reason he was the pick of Fields.

Ross: Over Fields

RC: And Kyle can't create/design cool plays because Lance is at his best flushed from the pocket and improvising.

RC: I think it was Lance over Fields because of a better meeting face-to-face impression. Lance controllable, polite. Fields a wild card, independent.

RC: Shanahan wants CONTROLLABLE.

RC: But his style is not controllable.

RC: But Shanny will try to

RC: If you're GB GM in February 2022, with the rosters/players the way we know them now, and the coaches are the same...and you are offered Lance for Rodgers...do you do it?

Ross: Straight up?

RC: Straight

Ross: I think that would depend a lot on the vibe I'm getting from Rodgers. Assuming Rodgers was fine and wanted to keep playing for me for a few years, I pass on Lance and will take my shot somewhere else while I keep winning with Aaron.

RC: Same question, but you just replaced John Lynch as SF GM

Ross: Same answer. How long does Rodgers want to play? I see no signs of him slowing down, so if he wants to keep playing 3-4-5 years I'd take him all day long over Lance.

Ross: Lance is all potential at this point. It's nice to dream about the possibilities, but I'll take the bird in my hand over two in the bush all day long.

RC: Is Trey Lance a QB1/top 12 in FF for 2022?

Ross: Yes. In 4-point passing TD leagues for sure.

RC: April 2021, you're the new GM of Jacksonville (with a normal coach), you can take any QB in the 2021 Draft #1. Who is your pick?

RC: With today's knowledge of 17 weeks of play so far.

Ross: Any QB in the league?

RC: *Note...there is a long pause here, so Ross must really be thinking...*

RC: 2021 NFL Draft

RC: Jacksonville on the clock

RC: You're the GM with full control

Ross: I would take Lance. I've seen nothing from any of the other guys that suggests to me they can be franchise QB's. Mac is fine. Wilson has potential just like Lance but not as much in my opinion. It's still Lance for me…and pray.

RC: I would take Zach Wilson, based on what I've seen so far...but if I were the Jets GM in April 2021, and Lawrence went, I would take Lance instead of Wilson -- Lance built better for NYJ weather like Allen for Buffalo.

Ross: That's totally reasonable.

RC: If you did Lance-Wilson, and if I would do Wilson-Lance...if you are the SF GM April 2021, at #3...Mac or Mills or Fields?

Ross: Oof, that's tough.

Ross: I can think of legit arguments for all three.

RC: But you get one pick...

RC: To fit with Shanny

RC: No, you can't draft Pitts...it has to be a QB

Ross: The one that would win the most games with Shanny would be Mac. But I think I'd take Fields, Shanahan be damned, and again pray that Fields worked out. I don't want an ok QB in this league. There's a million of those. I want ‘special’ and I think Fields has a higher chance of that than Mac or Mills, no matter how small the chance might actually be.

RC: I think I might take Davis Mills right now

RC: as the better version of Mac

RC: and I hated Mills coming out of Stanford

Ross: I get the argument for Mills. I just can't get behind it. He's performed admirably, but I just can't see a world where we wake up one day and Mills is a top 10 QB.

RC: Didn’t think Mills would make it...too much growth needed, and too bland. He's really impressed me with his poise in a bad situation.

RC: I think Mac and Mills are 'meh', but Mills grittier performance with worse things around him.

RC: Final Question...

RC: Drafting right now for Dynasty. 6pts per pass TD FF league. You must choose one...Burrow or Lance?

Ross: Burrow without question.

RC: Herbert or Kyler?

Ross: Herbert.

RC: Lance or Kyler?

Ross: Kyler.

RC: 2022 redraft, and Lance and Kyler are both going to play every game healthy/start...Lance or Kyler?

Ross: I almost snap typed Kyler, but that one depends. Right this second I'll say Kyler but I very well might change my mind come next year. 4-pt leagues it would be even closer.

RC: I ask those last ones because it's a big issue to deal with this Dynasty offseason...should people be moving off Kyler and into Herbert or Allen or Burrow or Lance or whatever.

Ross: I think so. I don't like what I see from Kyler or Kingsbury, and I'm afraid trouble is brewing there. Herbert, Allen, and Burrow seem much safer to me.

END

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

36 = E Mitchell

12 = J Wilson

07 = Hasty

 

53 = Cooks

49 = Conley

40 = Collins

21 = J Camp

 

44 = Rex B

15 = R Freeman

09 = J Samuels

 

 

 

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season early-signups start January 6th, 2022 NoonET**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

FFM

04 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Buccaneers 28, Jets 24

 

This game was led by the Jets for about three quarters, and when they had a 24-10 lead with a few minutes left in the 3rd-quarter...at that point, I thought (during the live watch)…the Jets really are going to win this darn thing aren’t they? Which was the signal to Tom Brady to reel off 18 unanswered and take the victory. It was closer than it needed to be, the Bucs escaped the AB drama and got the win.

Tampa Bay is now (12-4) and are either going to wind up as a #2 or #3 seed…and they’ll beat whatever team they draw 1st-round, and they don’t care too much about #2 or #3 seed really. I bet Brady would rather play in LA/a dome (down the road, if it came down to it) than host the Rams. But he likely doesn’t care either way. The Bucs may rest many key players Week 18, but they are saying they will not early on in the week...it's a supposed full-go for TB Week 18.

The Jets are now (4-12) and whether they win or lose Week 18, they’ll not get to the #1 NFL Draft pick (JAX has locked up) but the Jets will wind up with the #2-5 spot for the draft regardless of Week 18’s outcome.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- What to make of the Antonio Brown (3-26-0/5) ordeal? Well, my first thought is this… They haven’t cut him as of this writing.

They said they cut him Sunday, but they didn’t do it officially. They might…but they might not. A heartfelt apology away and a team vote away from rejoining the team -- is what I think.

I’m betting he is no longer with the team for the playoffs, but they might keep him rostered just so he wont go anywhere else…but it’s not totally over that AB won’t rejoin the team for the playoffs…especially if Evans gets hurt and they need AB desperately.

Now, AB won’t be on the Bucs in 2022…I wouldn’t think. With Brown gone from the 2022 picture, and Chris Godwin a free agent with a poorly timed ACL tear…there might be openings for other WRs to step up/step in in 2022.

Rookie Jaelon Darden going into Antonio Brown’s old role could be interesting. The Tyreek Hill-ish type young WR that Tom has taken a little shine to this preseason…and that Bruce Arians called ‘like a young Antonio Brown’. I’m just saying… Not a guarantee, but it’s looking better today than it did a few days ago.

Cyril Grayson (6-84-1/8) could also be a factor in 2022. He will for sure be one Week 18 and into the playoffs. He’s going to get a shot to impress Tom…and apparently, he has been already. He caught the game winning TD here and crushed Breshad Perriman (2-41-0/3) in snaps 44-to-11. We have to assume Grayson as the #2 WR for Tampa right now, no?

 

 -- Ronald Jones (10-26-0, 1-1-0/1) got hurt in-game, and that opened up more touches for Ke’Shawn Vaughn (8-31-0, 2-14-0/3). The RoJo injury cost a few people their title games – he was stuffed when he was in, and then got hurt/out. It happens – putting him in/starting him v. the Jets made sense.

Vaughn will be a potential RB1 v. CAR Week 18, but he may have a 2nd-team O-Line to work with…and he is questionable with a rib injury.

Le’Veon Bell (3-5-0, 3-30-0/3) is not a threat…he’s dying. He might see touches too just to keep Vaughn safe in case they need him for the playoffs. Bell getting 10 carries and 3-4 targets probably won’t be great.

 

 -- Michael Carter (3-54-0) went down in-game, and it was Austin Walter (14-49-0) for some reason taking over as ‘lead ballcarrier’. He’s not good, but he tries hard.

Ty Johnson (5-35-1, 3-47-0/4) in a support role here shows he has little future with the Jets for any FF upside hope.

Carter is questionable Week 18 with a concussion, and Tevin Coleman should be back from COVID to muddy it all up if Carter is out.

 

 -- Braxton Berrios (8-65-1/12, 2-12-1) keeps on improving, and getting more touches every week…and more TDs (now 4 this season)!!! A few of you were ‘forced’ to use him this title week…and ta-da!

Watching him the last few weeks, I’m thinking – why weren’t the Jets using him more before all this? He’s the Hunter Renfrow lite for the Jets.

 

 -- IDP side note…

The Bucs had two edge rushers down (JPP and Shaq B.) for this game…and great setup for pass rushing against the weak Jets O-Line. But did 1st-round rookie Joe Tyron (4 tackles) take advantage? No.

No sacks.

No QB Hits.

The other fill-in edge rusher, Anthony Nelson (3 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs) had a much stronger game.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

59 = Jeff Smith

53 = Berrios

50 = K Cole

 

31 = Ty J

25 = A Walter

08 = M Carter

 

56 = Evans

49 = Tyler Johnson

47 = Grayson

11 = Perriman

 

26 = L Bell

24 = Vaughn

20 = RoJo

 

58 = A Nelson

53 = J Tryon

 

 

 

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season early-sign ups start January, 6th 2022 NoonET**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

04 January 2022

A look back at the Chargers 2021 season via RC's weekly game recaps/analysis with 2022 notes/comments added to this review...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

04 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Seahawks 51, Lions 29 

 

What else did you expect? I'm sorry, you have to respect the fight of the Lions and the tenacity they've shown throughout the year, but this just isn't a good team. They aren't even decent. It's a pure talent issue, nothing more. If Dan Campbell can hold onto this camaraderie and energy in 2022-2023 then we might see a respectable team provided Detroit can bring in some better players.

You see it every week with them. The Lions got their butts handed to them early on, but they didn't quit and kept coming back at Seattle. The game was 31-7 at half and 38-7 moments later, but Detroit cut the lead to 38-22 before Seattle scored one last TD to put it away.

I think Dan Campbell has earned another year despite their record. You'd think management would see how the players have rallied around him and responded to what he's selling. Now that may not matter next year if they don't start winning some games. Culture only works if you win. But it shouldn't be too hard to improve. It takes real talent to stay a bottom-feeder year after year (coughHueJacksoncough).

Big changes are coming for Seattle though. One or both of Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson are leaving. There's no way to keep the band together any longer. You would expect management to attempt to keep Wilson and dump Carroll, but I have a feeling Russell is leaving either way. I think he's had enough of Seattle management as well.

If he's traded, the most likely destination is the New York giants. Russell is reportedly most interested in the Giants for obvious reasons, it's a huge media market for him and his wife, and they have a ton of skill position talent. Trade for Russ, draft 2 or 3 offensive linemen, and mix that with an underrated defense and you have an instant playoff team.

He's also been linked to the Saints and his connection there is apparently all about Sean Payton. I don't think this one is particularly likely though because it doesn't give him the big market (like Chicago or Dallas, the other teams he was supposedly interested in last year) and the Saints are in cap hell right now and don't really have the assets to move for him.

I don't believe he'll want to go to either Denver or Pittsburgh for similar reasons.

 

 

Fantasy Notes

 

--If Russell does leave, where does that leave DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett? Depends on who replaces him.

Regardless of whether it's a rookie or vet though, Lockett is the one most likely hurt by Wilson's departure. He's had a connection with Russ for years, but Metcalf is widely viewed as the alpha receiver here. Without Wilson I would expect the target distribution to change significantly with Metcalf picking up a large chunk of what Lockett loses.

It's unlikely that Seattle will be able to find a replacement of Wilson's caliber this year though, so both receivers could be in for a downturn in production next year.

*RC NOTE: Imagine if Seattle trades Russ and hires some young, inexperienced coach to start over…and then winds up drafting a young garbage rookie QB while adding a washed up vet QB, as D.K.’s production drops – Metcalf is gonna go off the rails on the path/course he seems to be on. 

The next A.B. or Calvin Ridley mental concern WR scouting/worry (now, this is a thing more and more…the leading contenders (to me): D.K. Metcalf, Kadarius Toney. We saw AB, Ridley, and A.J. Brown fight mental issues this season, as WRs. Lane Johnson did as well, but he’s an OL. 

I’m not trying to be crude or insensitive, but my job as a football scout is to assess these risks (and I do all the time with our CFM draft scouting on guys like Derrius Guice, Johnny Manziel, last year with Kadarius Toney, etc., and now you see why…it’s a new era). 

These mental concerns have always been discussed in football scouting circles but now it’s a whole new thing with players now just ‘not playing’/taking mental time off at the drop of a hat – we’re gonna see it more and more ahead with overpaid WRs, I believe.You usually see it in well-paid WRs where they have more money than they know what to do with (or so they think). I think it is a real issue that comes with a coddled life from high school on as a superior athlete, followed by NFL fame and fortune and them worshipped as heroes while most everyone in their family, some of their closest friends, and random women are trying to get money from them, as is their agents – they can wind up with no real friends, and everyone around them a potential predator.

This is a in-the-early-stages issue we have to watch out for as Dynasty owners/players. And WRs seem to be the flakiest group of them all, and have been for years (T.O. comes to mind, NYG era OBJ, Josh Gordon drug issues, Randy Moss had issues that almost chopped down his career until Belichick/Brady saved him, etc.).

This is real. It’s a Dynasty scouting item ahead. 2021 kicked down the door of players just ‘checking out’ and the teams giving grace...so now others will follow. I think we’ll see it mostly in WRs and CBs as the lowest contact positions, so the game is a different experience for them compared to RBs and LBs and interior linemen. QBs will be next in line for some issues popping up…after they get their big contracts, but it will hurt their career in an instant…whereas WRs and CBs are seen as ‘different’ in NFL circles. 

If you don’t think it’s a thing for Dynasty…you didn’t draft/own Calvin Ridley in 2021, did you? RIdley owners could tell you how much they enjoyed is half a season+ disappearance.

 

--Rashaad Penny is another interesting piece to think about. He's played well these last few games, finally living up to some of the promise of his 1st round selection. He'll be a free agent this off-season though after Seattle declined to pick up his 5th year option.

Will they bring him back? I think they will. We don't know if Chris Carson will ever be able to play football again, Penny is easily the most talented back on the roster, he's familiar with the system, and I don't believe he'll be too expensive to resign because despite his recent surge, he's still only played a few good games. Is another team going to throw a bunch of cash at a guy that's been hurt the vast majority of the last 4 years? Unlikely.

My guess is Seattle re-signs him to a medium contract, drafts another back in the 2nd or 3rd round, and gives Penny first crack at being the main starter while the rookie develops. If Penny can stay healthy, a huge if, he could easily finish as an RB1 next year depending on other circumstances. He's likely someone I'll fade though because between his health, coaching changes, a bad offensive line, etc, there's just too many risk factors for me.

If you're still playing week 18 though I think you can play him and get a decent game. The Cardinals aren't pushovers but it is possible to run on them and Seattle has really been opening some nice holes for Penny. I doubt he cracks 100 yards again, but he's a starting back and likely to take 15-20 carries. You have to play him.

 

--One player that will almost for sure be jettisoned is longtime Seattle defensive leader Bobby Wagner. Wagner has a cap hit of $20 million next season but a dead cap hit of only $3.75 million which almost guarantees he'll be let go.

Seattle already has his replacement ready to go with Jordyn Brooks, the NFL's 3rd leading tackler behind only Wagner and Atlanta's Foyesade Oluokun. To me both players are a touch overrated due to their raw tackle totals, but obviously they are both very good players regardless. Brooks should be among the league leaders in tackles for the foreseeable future, but Carroll's departure could bring defensive changes that aren't quite so stat friendly.

 

--For Detroit there's not much to be excited about which is why Amon-Ra St Brown's recent fantasy success is being blown completely out of proportion by the Detroit fans and media. When you are starved for any positive news, the tiniest shred of hope can seem like manna from heaven.

St Brown is an ok player. If you read that deep into the draft guide this past summer, you'll have seen my entry on him. I noted that Brown is a tough player with solid hands and enough athleticism to be a decent slot receiver, and I hit the nail on the head when I said he would be buried early in the year but start to carve out a role later in the season.

Unfortunately, that's where the good news ends for Brown. All his stats were piled up in garbage time against defenses not worried about covering him all that much. He runs a lot of curl routes, turns around, and catches the easy pass. There are a million receivers all over the league that can do the exact same thing. There's nothing special about Brown.

Can he keep that pace up? I guess, if they keep forcing it to him. But these types of guys pop up multiple times a year for 2-3 games and then disappear back to mediocrity. Why should Brown keep it up over an entire season? Remember when Sterling Shepard had that great run the first few games of the season? Brown isn't a better receiver than Shepard.

*RC NOTE: Excellent point here by Ross. The Shepard story is a nice parallel – avg./good slot guys have a good stretch for a million and one reasons, and then they fade off into ‘OK’ or ‘good’ but never live up to that ‘hot stretch’. St.Brown is an overvalued asset to me going into 2022, but he could see a million targets next year and be sweet for PPR…but falling back down to ‘average’ is on the table – because he is an average talent. The offense and QB will dictate his future for FF, not any immense talent from ARSB.

Everyone is dreaming about Brown being some huge breakout star next year just because of this blip, but when Detroit drafts one or two bigger, more athletic receivers in the draft, everyone will forget all about Brown.

Week 18 he draws the great GB secondary, although they will likely be benching many of their starters after clinching the top seed in the NFC. You might as well play him. Don't try to fight this trend.

 

--The strangest thing I saw from this game was D'Andre Swift returning from injury and then being completely ignored early in the game while it was still somewhat competitive. Swift didn't get in the game until the rout was on. Were they just managing his reps or...?

I honestly have no idea. But then I don't understand why this coaching staff is still wasting carries on Jamaal Williams either. Williams is easily the worst of the RB's on this team. He really should be cut and then run a rotation of Swift, Reynolds, and Igwebuike, but they'll never do it.

The Williams push is why I can't get behind this coaching staff despite some of the promise they've shown in other areas. Culture and energy and spirit are all great, but the most important thing will always be talent because good players win games.

Ditto the situation in Miami. When you try to force garbage like Myles Gaskin just because he works hard, you're going to lose in the long run. It's that simple.

If this team dumps Williams, then I'll get on board with Swift for 2022. He's definitely much more talented than I thought when he was drafted. I saw a few flashes of it this year, but he needs to stay healthy.

 

--I don't think anyone needs me to tell them Tim Boyle is never going to matter for the NFL or fantasy. Give him a clean pocket and he can look ok drilling balls to open receivers, but any kind of muddy pocket and he collapses.

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

03 January 2022

A look back at the Chargers 2021 season via RC's weekly game recaps/analysis with 2022 notes/comments added to this review...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

02 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Titans 20, 49ers 17 

 

This one really irritated me. I had the 49'ers giving up points in our internal handicapping contest, and they were clearly the better team here...except the clock on Jimmy Garoppolo's good fortune ran out and he turned back into the pumpkin he is.

Anyone that read my various arguments concerning Jimmy and Trey Lance back in the summer will know my opinion of him. I think he's a game manager and not a particularly good one. I think his arm is shot, he's never been a very accurate passer, he makes some inexplicably awful decisions, and he's got no mettle whatsoever. If the going gets tough, Jimmy folds like a wet napkin.

First drive of the game the 49'ers go right down the field for a TD, and I'm feeling pretty good about my bet. The Titans are missing a couple of offensive linemen and get beaten up on their first drive. SF drives down the field again and are looking for a 14-0 lead.

And that's when the Jimmy BS began. He throws an INT in the endzone literally right to a defender hanging all over his target.

Next drive and SF is rolling again...until Jimmy misses an absolutely wide open Kyle Juszczyk. It should have been a walk in TD. Sam Darnold could have hit that pass. Not Jimmy G. So instead of a 21-0 lead, it's now only 10-0 thanks to Garoppolo.

At this point the Titans still can't do anything on offense, and I'm assuming that it's just a matter of time until the SF mistakes stop and they blow Tennessee out. Nope. Next drive for SF and Jimmy throws the ball right to a defender...who drops it luckily. Now I'm starting to get worried. Things are not improving.

The Titans kick a FG and it's 10-3 at the half.

SF gets the ball after halftime, and what do you think happened next? Jimmy throws another godawful INT right to a defender. Foreman takes the TD in and we have a tie game.

Penalties stall the next promising SF drive and the ball is turned over on downs. Until this point the Titans have done literally nothing on offense. And then they magically discover that AJ Brown is uncoverable. Tannehill throws up a prayer, Brown blatantly pushes Ambry Thomas away from him for a no-call, and Tennessee caps off the drive after Brown beats Josh Norman for a TD, 17-10 Titans.

SF would finally muster a scoring drive of their own to tie the game with 2:20 left, but it was too much time, and the Titans calmly marched down the field while Brown drubbed Norman over and over. The Titans kicked the go-ahead FG with 4 seconds left. Ball game.

The Titans get the big win that will very likely lead to them clinching the AFC South over the Colts. They still have to get by Miami this week, no easy task, but even if they lose and the Colts win out, Tennessee should still win the division on tiebreaks since they beat the Colts twice. They are most likely headed to the playoffs with a 2 or 3 seed, and if Derrick Henry comes back like we're hearing reports say, this team is extremely dangerous.

The 49'ers lost, but because the Vikings lost as well, their path remains open to make the playoffs. My guess is they beat Houston this week but lose to the Rams in week 18. That gets them to 9-7 which should be good enough for a 6 or 7 seed. Can they do anything in the playoffs? Maybe. I don't see this team making it all the way to the Superbowl, but perhaps they can upset a team or two. I doubt it though.

SF's defense is usable against the Texans this week. Davis Mills has been playing good ball, but they aren't going to be running Burkhead for 140 yards against this defensive line. Solid streaming option.

You could also try using Tennessee's defense against Miami, but I wouldn't. They will shut down the run game, but their pass defense is not good and Tua is very likely to carve them up with that quick passing game.

 

 

Fantasy Notes

 

--So after the whole world witnessed the Garoppolo disaster, it should be time for Trey Lance, right? Well, not if Shanahan had his way. Garoppolo has officially been listed as doubtful after sustaining a thumb injury, and it sounds like Lance will get the nod, but I can assure you Shanahan isn't happy about it.

I drew a line in the sand with RC this summer by casting my lot in with Lance as the #1 QB from the 2021 draft class, and this is a great spot for him to show what he can do. He's had almost an entire year to prepare and grow, he faces a weak defense...what's not to love? For fantasy purposes you have to consider Lance a QB1. He's going to be running a fair amount, lots of option stuff, some nice safe throws to get him in a rhythm. I'd expect somewhere in the 20-24 point range in 4-pt passing TD leagues.

As far as his real life prospects go, I want to see growth from him. I want to see him reading the defense, at least better than he was in the preseason. I want to see him delivering accurate passes, less sailing throws, cutting down on throwing into coverage...your typical development QB milestones. If I don't see some of those things I'm going to be quite nervous heading into next year with him...

 

--One thing that would help Lance is getting Elijah Mitchell back on the field, but that's not a sure thing yet. Mitchell supposedly got in a limited practice Thursday but has still been dealing with the ankle that's kept him out the past few weeks. He's questionable for Sunday.

If he can play, I'd expect the 49'ers to be somewhat cautious with him. They should be able to get a lead on Houston, and if they do it would be smart to throttle back Mitchell's carries to keep him healthy for the playoffs. We'll continue to monitor this situation, but my best guess is that Mitchell will play and take a solid workload but probably rotate to a larger degree than usual. I'd consider him a borderline RB1 if he plays. RC might have a different read on this situation though.

*RC NOTE: I think you have two things to worry about with EMitch, if he’s back for Week 17…

1) He’s been out a couple weeks, and just getting back to limited practices. How healthy will he be come Sunday? And if they wipe out Houston quickly…is Mitchell staying in all game and taking 15-20+ carries just coming off missing 2+ weeks?

2) How much run game action will Trey Lance take from Mitchell (or Wilson) in the run game if everyone is ‘fine’?

If Mitchell is active and starting, he’s something – but questions abound, but they also face Houston’s awful run defense…so there may be enough to go around for everybody. How much we trust Mitchell is a decision going down to the wire with more info by Sunday kickoff. 

 

--George Kittle had a stinker here after blowing up the past few weeks. I didn't see any particular reason for it other than Jimmy just not looking at him. He's still a top 3 TE this week.

 

--As I covered above, AJ Brown obviously had a monster day here, and the majority of it came against Josh Norman. Don't expect a similar performance this week against Xavien Howard and the Dolphins. You basically have to start Brown if you have him, but to me he's more of a WR1.5-2 this week than the top 5 guy most analysts are billing him as.

 

--This was looking like a good day for D'Onta Foreman early on, but he ultimately had to save his fantasy day with a short TD plunge. He actually had a potential 2nd TD called back for a hold right before halftime or it might have been even better. After that he got nicked up for a bit which allowed Jeremy McNichols to come in and spark the offense on a couple good runs.

Foreman is still the “lead” here, but it's become a pretty heavy rotation at this point and I see no reason why that won't continue against the Dolphins. If you play Foreman this week you're praying for a TD.

 

 

IDP Notes

 

--It was nice to see Jordan Willis (2 tackles, 1 sack), an old favorite of RC's, getting a sack here. Unfortunately, it's not some new trend and I don't think he's really resurrecting his career the way RC hoped. It was just a case of Tennessee missing offensive linemen and SF taking advantage. Same deal for Samson Ebukam (4 tackles, 1.5 sacks).

Willis is still just a rotational pass rusher playing 20-25% of the snaps. Ebukam is much more involved and has grown his role from 35% early in the season to around 65% now. Still, this was more about Tennessee's line than anything. Of course, this week against Houston is another juicy matchup for all the SF rushers.

 

--Since Tennessee's acquisition of Zach Cunningham (4 tackles) a few weeks ago, he has played 76 snaps the past two weeks compared to Jayon Brown's 32. We can safely consider Cunningham the starter moving forward.

The stupid part is that despite outsnapping Brown 43-16 this game, Brown actually had 5 tackles to Cunningham's 4. That tells you all you need to know about their talent levels and who the better player is currently, but does that matter to head coaches? Not one bit. Vrabel has a previous relationship with Cunningham and that's all that matters. Just another reason why I refuse to cast my vote with him for Coach of the Year.

Ross Jacobs

FFM

01 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Bears 25, Seahawks 24

 

The Bears really should not have won this game, but as RC has been telling us for years, Nick Foles is magic and somehow finds a way to win games like this. Foles came in off the bench, in the cold and snow, and immediately looked like the best QB Chicago has started all year. He pulls off the 4th quarter comeback, and what will it get him? Another chance to start against the Giants? Nope. He's being sent right back to the bench for Andy Dalton.

Thank you for your services, Nick! You are no longer needed.

Seattle controlled this game from the get go. They were the better team, and Chicago really didn't do anything to stop them the entire time. But every time the Seahawks got a bigger lead, the Bears would somehow put together a drive to get it back to a one score game.

With just minutes to go Seattle looked like they were ready to slam the door shut for good, but a missed 39 yard FG gave the Bears some life.

Chicago didn't immediately capitalize, but they got the ball back a second time after turning it over on downs, and this time Foles found Jimmy Graham for the TD. An amazing 2-pt conversion catch by Damiere Byrd gave Chicago the lead, and the Seahawks were unable to get in field goal position with about a minute left.

Of course, this game didn't really matter for either team as they've both been eliminated from playoff contention. Both of them are now 5-10 and will likely finish at 6-11, and both teams could very well be looking for new coaches in a few weeks.

You can probably use the Seattle defense against the Lions this week in a pinch, especially if Goff is out, but I'd be more interested in using Chicago's defense against the Giants. The Bears have been very good at generating sacks this year (5th in the league), and the Giants offensive line is a travesty, plus you'll have the statue known as Mike Glennon back there.

 

 

Fantasy Notes

 

--Rashaad Penny (17-135-1) has to be in the conversation as a RB1 this week against the Lions pathetic run defense. He's kind of offending my sensibilities with his success right now because all I see him doing is running fast straight ahead, BUT it's working, so why would I fight the trends?

The Seahawks are feeding him the ball and suddenly starting to actually open up some running lanes for him, and when Penny can get going downhill he's actually quite difficult to stop. I don't think the Lions will be able to attack him at the line this week, so definitely start Penny at RB if you have him. I will be.

 

--What's wrong with DK Metcalf (2-41-1/5)? Nothing. He looks like one of the most physically dominant receivers in the league. I'm wondering if things aren't great between him and Wilson though, because after the first TD they connected on (presumably to shut Metcalf up after he's been understandably whining about targets), Wilson rarely looked his way again.

Metcalf is open. Russell just isn't looking at him most plays. He's also being sent deep a lot, and on the rare times Wilson does throw it to him short, he's often off-target. To me it's Russell that doesn't look quite right. Maybe the finger is bothering him or maybe he's just checked out from dealing with Pete Carroll, but he's just not playing like the Russell we've come to know, and it's dragging everything down, Metcalf included.

If you have DK in a championship game this week, you basically have to start him against a beat up Detroit secondary, but he's more WR2.5 than anything right now.

 

--The Seattle skill position player I was most surprised to see so involved is Gerald Everett (4-68-1/5). He's being used like a jumbo receiver right now, and he's just as involved in the game plan as Metcalf or Lockett.

In his last 7 games, Everett has gone 30-287-3/38 (10.95 ppg in ppr). That's solid TE1 work. I'd look for that to continue this week against the Lions defense, but I am just a bit nervous because his two bad games in that stretch were the two games Seattle won. It seems like he might be used more when they are trying to hang in games where they are down. Food for thought.

 

--Allen Robinson might be back from his bout with COVID this week, but that depends on how he's feeling. He apparently struggled with it and still wasn't doing well a few days ago. I'd probably say the same whether it was true or not if I was in his shoes. Why rush back for a team that's out of the playoffs and will be starting Dalton on Sunday? My guess is Robinson sits out this week and likely week 18 as well. Even if he does play you're not starting him in fantasy.

 

--I'm coming off my completely negative view of Cole Kmet (4-49-0/5) a bit. Obviously he's been working ok enough for fantasy, but I've been totally against him for the future because every time I've watched him he looks beyond sluggish.

This was the first time all year I've seen him look, not good, but decent. He wasn't moving like a slug. Still don't see any zip to his movements, but at least “average” is an improvement over “turtle.” And who knows maybe he can find an extra gear David Montgomery-style.

‍

--Rookie WR Dazz Newsome got his first catch after making his debut last week. Wasn't a fan when I watched him with North Carolina. Not a fan now. Just another generic small receiver.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest

 

63 = Mooney

62 = Byrd

34 = Newsome

23 = Goodwin

 

49 = Metcalf

48 = Lockett

29 = Swain

20 = Eskridge

 

47 = Everett

30 = Penny

22 = Dallas

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Dolphins 20, Saints 3

 

There’s not much reason to dive deep into the mechanics of this game. The Dolphins are the most blessed team in the NFL…seven wins in-a-row with the easiest schedule filled with lucky wins and good fortune at every turn. Miami was likely on their way to getting their head’s handed to them by the Saints…and then the Saints lost a chunk of their team to COVID, including their #1 and #2 QB…just in time for the MNF affair.

The Saints had to force rookie Ian Book into the starting QB role, and he was as bad as you’d expect…and still the Saints were hanging around in this game past halftime. Eventually, the lack of Saints offense buckled them and Miami got a 2+ score lead and the Saints were never going to score a TD on purpose, and Miami quietly put them away. It never should’ve been this way for the Saints but for the COVID testing rules. But…it is what it is.

With this lucky win, Miami jumps to (8-7) and firmly in the playoff race. They still need to win out to have hope of the playoffs…and I don’t think they will at TEN and v. NE the next two games. I need them to lose out to salvage my win total ‘under’ bet on them at 8.0 wins. It should’ve never gotten close to this, but…it is what it is. Thanks, COVID. Thanks to you ‘Mr. Schedule’ that has had a ‘who’s who’ of the bottom teams in the league thrown their way since Week 6.

The Saints fall to (7-8) but are actually in better shape to make the playoffs than Miami. If the Saints win out…with v. CAR, then at ATL ahead – it is a pretty good opportunity to do so…then the Saints need some minor help from other NFC wild card teams to just a lose a game/not win out to help NO slide into the wild card.

The Saints are more projected in the NFC playoffs than out today, Miami more out of the AFC playoffs than in.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Just a quick review/critique: Rookie QB Ian Book (12-20 for 135 yards, 0 TD/2 INT, 3-6-0) is a good guy, a scrappy player, but he just doesn’t have NFL level QB talent/arm strength. It showed here, and likely his career ended here. He’ll be a journeyman QB soon enough.

 

 -- Taysom Hill will return for Week 17 and has a so-so matchup with the Panthers defense. Carolina has a decent pass defense, but a dying run defense…so Taysom will be more apt to keep the ball himself and run to victory over the Panthers.

In his three starts this season, Hill has rushed the ball exactly 11 times in each game…for an average of 69.0 yards per game.

Seven career starts at QB for Hill, a (6-1) record, 10.3 rush attempts for 59.4 yards and 0.85 TDs per game – he’s going to lay a baseline of 10-11-12 FF points rushing, you just have to hope he throws for enough action to give him a 20+ point FF game. His passing efforts have all been around 200-230 yards and a TD per game…either 0 or 2 passing TDs in games, nothing else in seven starts. Will you get the zero or the two TD passes this week?

My slight lean is ‘under’ 20 FF points this week, but 20+ is always possible with Hill because of the rushing baseline points.

 

 -- Because the Saints (under Hill) don’t throw as much, you can’t really trust Marquez Callaway (4-46-0/5) all that much.

Under 50 yards receiving in nine of his last 10 games.

Under 40 yards receiving in eight of his last 10 games.

No TD catches in his last 5 games.

He’s their #1 WR, but a random event for FF.

 

 -- I knew Duke Johnson (13-39-0) was playing a bigger role for Miami, but I didn’t realize Philip Lindsay (13-36-0) had played such a large part here too…and that Myles Gaskin (3-10-0, 1-6-0/3) seems to be being fully replaced.

All this time Miami has wasted with Myles Gaskin, and all it took was randomly lucking into Lindsay and then is forced into Duke via COVID…and, well, whaddya know! They’re the starters suddenly. It shows how much Gaskins sucks. I guess?

Brian Flores is secretly one of the worst of the worst head coaches because of horrific personnel decisions on offense -- but has been bailed out by schedule the past seasons. But the fans and media won’t have any of that talk as long as the win streak continues. Wins matter, not their context…just like losses.

I guess we’re in a Duke lead with Lindsay support and some Gaskin sprinkled-in type of Miami RB world now…and they are facing the emerging run defense of Tennessee in Week 17, in which they’ll all get halted v. TEN like they did here versus top run defense New Orleans. The Titans run defense is getting really good.

 

 -- Tua (19-26 for 196 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) getting bottled up here is not a shock. I projected this happening because for all of Tua’s improvement in the BTO (Baby Throw Offense), his kryptonite is aggressive/disciplined defenses – that’s why Buffalo smashes him every time they meet, and the Saints half-a-defense-out-with COVID suppressed him here. The Titans are an emerging, aggressive defense like a Buffalo or New Orleans style/mindset…they are going to halt the run and put pressure on Tua, and that’s not where Tua shines.

Tua v. TEN is not a good matchup.

Every throw will still go to Jaylen Waddle (10-92-1/12) but outside of that not much will likely happen.

 

 -- I love the new articles and fresh tweets I see this week from football pundits trying to drop the mic on how good Marcus Davenport (5 tackles, 1 sack, 2 QB hits) has been this year…because they just figured it out watching him this MNF game and then noticed his numbers, and then noticed the numbers are happening in a reduced amount of games.

We were getting on this train Weeks 9-10. Welcome to the train, football pundits who make 7-figures to analyze this stuff for a living for the masses.

Davenport has only played in nine games this season. If you take those nine games and extrapolate his output over an (old) 16-game season, his key tallies would be: 13.3 sacks, 16 TFLs, 23 QB hits for the extrapolated season.

 

 -- You have to love the Saints-DST for Week 17 vs. Sam Darnold, especially now that Demario Davis is cleared to play. Only Marcus Williams, among the NO regular starters, has yet to be cleared for action from the COVID hit last week.

 

 -- I like, not love, and am leery of the Dolphins-DST vs. TEN Week 17. So much of the recent hot Dolphins-DST run has been against garbage teams or COVID hit teams, that we don’t know how good they really are. I think they are a bit ‘risky’ vs. TEN getting their starting OLs back from COVID this week.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

41 = Callaway

28 = L Humphrey

17 = Stills

14 = Tre’Quan Smith

 

31 = AK

24 = Ingram

02 = T Jones

 

58 = Waddle

46 = D Parker

 

23 = Duke J

20 = Gaskin

19 = Lindsay

 

 

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.