Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st, obviously everyone is healthy, and running our data to the NFL schedule and seeing 'what happens' and then taking that right through the playoffs.
This will be a series -- three weeks of results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
When the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all this in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
#1 seed = Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)
#5 SF 49ers (11-6) at #4 Falcons (9-8)
The 49ers win 84% of the simulations.
The Falcons are only here because their division is so pathetic…some team had to represent the NFC South. SF is going on for an earlier-than-expected rematch against the Eagles.
#6 NY Giants (10-7) at #3 Detroit (9-8)
The Giants go on the road (same as last season) and win 55% of the simulations.
I was more anti-Brian Daboll from my first exposure to him pre-2022 season…but now I'm a believer (which is probably the kiss of death for the G-Men). The kinda dangerous, scrappy 2022 season wild card team is back and better than last year.
#7 Cowboys (10-7) at #2 Seahawks (11-6)
The Seahawks win 65% of the simulations.
A decent Cowboys roster is once again coached downward by Mike McCarthy. Big story from now to the Super Bowl (future prediction)-- the Jerry Jones search for a new head coach.
