Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st, obviously everyone is healthy, and running our data to the NFL schedule and seeing ‘what happens’ and then taking that right through the playoffs.
This will be a series -- three weeks of results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
When the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all this in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team’s projected win total isn’t close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
#1 seed = Cincinnati Bengals (13-4)
They won the tiebreaker between them and Miami and Kansas City.
#5 Bills (11-6) at #4 Titans (8-9)
Buffalo wins 61% of the simulations.
Mike Vrabel finds a way to take his QB deficient, rebuilt O-Line, and finally healthy defense to the playoffs…but he cannot hang with the experience and firepower of the Bills.
#6 Browns (10-7) at #3 Chiefs (13-4)
Chiefs win 77% of the simulations.
The Chiefs are in an unfamiliar spot here -- a #3 seed. But their experience and firepower are too much for a Browns team that can slow it down and give KC fits.
The Browns get here via a top O-Line, a stable game-managing Deshaun, their run game…and most importantly a revamped defense with a nice secondary and a smart change at D-C to Jim Schwartz. Nice season but they can’t get by KC.
#7 Chargers (10-7) at #2 Dolphins (13-4)
Dolphins win 80% of the simulations.
The Chargers are too poorly coached to win big-time matchup events. And the Dolphins are way too strong top-to-bottom, and much more well coached. Miami slaps LAC around and the Brandon Staley era comes to an end with another disappointing season (for the QB talent they have) and another 1st-round playoff loss.
