- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Titans 28, Texans 25
Huge game for Tennessee…win and they would become the #1 seed in the AFC. A shocking turn of events…a #1 seed achieved despite losing their best player (Henry) halfway through the season, maybe the best/most important offensive player in the NFL (and I think RBs are pretty much all the same, lower value…but not Henry).
The Titans jumped out to a 21-0 lead at the half, and it was obvious to everyone that, of course, the Titans would crush the weak Texans here in such an important game. But…
With 4:04 to go in the game, the Texans had closed the lead to 28-25. The Titans on the verge of letting the lead, the AFC #1 seed, get away. But the Titans ran out the clock…they got the first downs needed to just put the game away/let the clock tick down on kneel downs at the end for the win. Closer than expected, but the Titans achieved the improbable – the #1 seed in the AFC.
Nice gutty effort for the Texans…so ‘gutty’ that they fired their 1st-year head coach about a week later. He didn’t deserve it. I mean, he shouldn’t have been hired in the first place…but he was there, and the Texans played better than their crappy roster for the most part. Culley didn’t deserve this. However, he committed the cardinal sin of NFL organizations – he has no ties back to Bill Belichick/he’s not an ex-Pat, so he’s going to go out with a whimper to be replaced by a true Patriot Way guy. Culley was a patsy…hired to run this ‘tank’ season, get it out of the way, then get Culley out of the way so a real ex-Pat can come in…whomever that might be. Culley is the Lee Harvey Oswald of the NFL in 2021-22. https://youtu.be/sbR6vHXD1j0
GM Nick Cesario is the Jack Ruby.
The Texans owner’s spiritual guru/football advisor/ex-Patriot/Cesario BFF from their days in New England Jack Easterby just sits back and laughs as his direct deposit clears for another bi-weekly compensation. He’s the CIA head in the tale of this rudderless team management, this tangled web the Texans are weaving.
Why I went JFK assassination to describe this…I think it was because I was listening to someone speak about the ordeal/theories on it last week or so, and I guess it was stuck in my subconscious.
The Titans go into the playoffs a #1 seed, that almost no one is picking to win the AFC and go to the Super Bowl…despite the potential that Derrick Henry might be back/ready-to-go. With Henry back, they should be the favorite. Without Henry, I think the Bengals would dismiss them handily.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- D’Onta Foreman (21-69-0, 1-15-0/2) kinda took over as the true lead back (with Derrick Henry out) in Week 12. From Week 12 to Week 18 (6 games), Foreman tallied…
110 carries, 482 yards rushing, 3 TDs, 6 catches for 60 yards.
18.3 carries, 80.33 rushing yards, 90.33 total yards, 0.50 TDs per game.
A 17-game season tally at those averages per game: 1,365 rushing yards, 1,536 total yards, 8.5 TDs per game, 17 catches.
That’s pretty salty work for a guy who any team could have picked up off the street the first 8 weeks of the NFL season. Foreman was a better, more effective RB, in 2021, then Ezekiel Elliott (likely playing hurt), Saquon Barkley, and Miles Sanders among others.
D’Onta Foreman is a free agent at the end of the playoffs. You think he’ll get a good contract and a chance to start anywhere in the 2022 season? Hell, no. Adrian Peterson will get chances ahead Foreman for some team most likely in 2022…just like in 2021…just like in 2020 the same scenario was true.
Here’s another example of how bad Falcons HC Arthur Smith is at evaluating talent…he had Foreman in the preseason (knew him from his days with Tennessee in 2020), but cut him weeks prior to the 53-man roster announcement.
-- Julio Jones (5-58-1/9) finally kinda mattered in a game again. It may be that he was just dealing with a nagging injury all mid-to-late season (typical) and he’s nursed his way to being ready for the playoffs (smart).
The Titans are the #1 seed.
They are getting Derrick Henry back, we assume.
Julio Jones is looking ready for the playoffs.
A.J. Brown is fully back from his couple games missed.
The defense is playing better and better.
Why are we usually all assuming the Titans can’t make it though the playoffs and get to the Super Bowl?
Julio is set to make $14M next season…or $13M to cut. The Titans took a big risk and a big financial burden to add Julio Jones this season…and it really hasn’t worked out for the price. Perhaps, he’ll salvage all that with a nice playoff run? If they win the title, it will not matter. If they lose to Cincy, the Titans fans/media will be howling about Julio as an epically stupid decision.
-- Davis Mills (23-33 for 301 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) in a meaningless game for Houston…down 21-0 at the half…behind a terrible O-Line, no run game, and no real receiver firepower outside of Brandin Cooks (and he only played 18 snaps) – and Mills throws for 300+ yards and 3 TDs and almost leads a comeback on a fully engaged opponent.
I never thought Mills would be a legit NFL QB. He didn’t have enough time at Stanford. His tape looked sloppy. He showed some mechanical skills but looked to me like he was robotic and overwhelmed…and he looked that way in the NFL preseason as well. He was thrown into the NFL fire for Houston early in the season in a terrible situation with a terrible coaching staff, and he’s responded – he’s done really well for a rookie.
In their last 6 games played/started in the 2021 season…
11 TDs/3 INTs, three 300+ yard passing games, 67%+ Comp. Pct. in games 3x = Davis Mills
10 TDs/7 INTs, two 300+ yard passing games (one was 299, but we’ll say 300), 67%+ Comp. Pct. in games 2x = Mac Jones (ignoring his start v. BUFF where he had 3 pass attempts)
I maintain, Mills is on par or better than Jones…considering the disaster Mills has to deal with and the terrific surroundings for Jones. I bring it up because it’s fascinating to consider if Mills and Jones are about the same, but what the draft price was by comparison.
-- As Davis Mills rose to power in the 2nd-half of the season, Nico Collins (3-67-0/7) showed some flashes of being a legit NFL WR…but he has a ways to go.
In his final 5 games of the 2021 season, Collins averaged 3.0 rec. (6.0 targets), 43.6 yards, 0.20 TDs per game.
Collins has work to do to improve his short game, but he definitely flashed star-like talent to me. Very encouraged by the raw skills of Collins. He’s definitely one to watch for 2022 or 2023. He has some ‘it’.
-- The Titans defense has allowed 0-19-17-3-25 for points in games since their Week 13 BYE…just 12.8 PPG allowed in that span. They didn’t play a murder’s row on the schedule or anything but they did squash who they should and did fluster/halt the hot (2nd-half of the season) 49ers offense in that stretch.
This defense faces a HUGE test with Cincinnati/Joe Burrow 1st-round of the playoffs…but they killed Patrick Mahomes and Matt Stafford earlier this season.
Titans FF Notes for divisional game v. Cincy:
-- This game marked the first time that Ryan Tannehill had a fully healthy A.J. Brown with fully healthy (looking) Julio Jones with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine running as the heavy-snap count #3…and Tannehill completed 71.9% of his passes and threw for 4 TDs…and each of those three WRs caught a TD pass. It was Tannehill’s best game (to my eye) of the 2021 season.
Tannehill has 7 TDs/0 INTs in his last three games, completing over 73% of his passes in that span. With Derrick Henry back providing cover for thinner coverage in the passing game, Tannehill might be a slick DFS/one-week play this week.
-- I’d expect a fully cleared, healthy Derrick Henry to get 90%+ of the RB touches, with Dontrell Hilliard on 3rd-downs/obvious passing situations, and D’Onta Foreman to barely play/touch the ball.
-- Anthony Firkser has scored a TD in back-to-back weeks. 2.8 rec. per game his last five games.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = A.J. Brown
50 = Westbrook-Ikhine
46 = Julio Jones
12 = McMath
10 = Ch Rogers
35 = Foreman
34 = Hilliard
48 = Swaim
23 = Firkser
40 = Burkhead
17 = David Johnson
01 = R Freeman
41 = Collins
37 = C Moore
30 = Amendola
22 = J Camp
18 = Br Cooks
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season sign ups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the NFC Wildcard Game.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the AFC Wildcard Game.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the NFC Wildcard Game.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the AFC Wildcard Game.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Cowboys 51, Eagles 26
Dallas played this game to win it…for better seeding potential. The Eagles had little reason to play, having clinched a wild card already, plus an outbreak of COVID positives, so they did the smart thing and took Week 18 as a BYE week for their key players and didn’t worry about +1 seed move potential.
Philly goes to Tampa Bay round-one of the playoffs…and I think the Eagles could be a sneaky option to take down a wounded Tampa team in the rain…with Philly as fresh as they can possibly be.
Dallas ‘wins’ this game and thus draws SF instead of Arizona, and all things considered…I think Dallas would rather have lost and played Arizona…because I think San Fran, one of the hottest teams in the NFL, is going to take them down.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Gardner Minshew (19-33 for 186 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) got the start and played well, but working with backups all over and the backup defense giving up score after score to Dallas 1st-team (and then 2nd-team)…no chance Philly/Minshew was winning this game.
Minshew had a third TD pass in the bag, but J.J. Arcega-Whiteside botched it…right in his hands in the end zone. There is no worse offensive player in the NFL than Arcega-Whiteside. A 2nd-round pick of the Eagles, mind you, with most all of the scouting world onboard with it.
Minshew is one of the 30 best QBs walking the planet earth, but he’ll be stuck behind Jalen Hurts for another season (and Hurts is a top 20-30 QB walking the planet as well) and then Minshew-Mania will hit free agency in 2023. He will not challenge for the Philly starting job…Hurts is the Philly franchise QB.
Minshew has 41 TDs/12 INTs in 27 NFL games/22 starts…and yet cannot draw more than a 6th-round draft pick in a trade this preseason. What do NFL scouts and GMs look at all day, all month, all year?
-- I really was excited to rewatch this game, primarily, to see QB-turned-TE Tyree Jackson (3-22-1/5) starting and seeing actual targets!
He scored a TD on a simple TE shuffle pass mid game…and at least it was something, but later in the game, running down the sideline, he tore his ACL…non contact.
So…in the 2021 season, in August Tyree broke his back in a preseason game. Rehabbed his way back midseason, only to tear his ACL at the end. The new ‘Jalen Hurd’.
I was a huge fan of what I saw from Tyree in the preseason, but a broken back…and then an ACL (which will likely linger into 2022 season being it was a late season ACL), I’ll do a Shark Tank ‘I’m out’. I/we (Dynasty players) have him on many deep-deep roster Dynasty teams. I’m OK to hold at a certain point, but my initial wild enthusiasm and ‘next Waller’ claims have been undercut by the injury bug/monster.
-- With the Eagles top three starting RBs all out Week 18, Kenneth Gainwell (12-78-1, 4-9-0/7) was set to be the lead…and he did fine, but the RB who caught my eye was Jason Huntley (13-51-0, 0-0-0/1). I think he caught Nick Sirianni’s eye too because Huntley got more and more time in this game as it went on because he looked so strong.
I’m bumping up Huntley’s projections for the future in our Dynasty Offseason valuations – which will debut in the DOBB area after the Super Bowl, the top 600 offensive players by our computer model dynasty values.
Huntley looked capable enough to be a #3 RB in 2022 with Scott-Howard potentially gone via free agency, but Huntley is a free agent as well. Huntley returned three kicks for a 28.0 yard average in this game as well…he can be the primary KR in 2022 as well, if Philly retains his services.
-- Think of all the WRs that have hit in the NFL the past two years, guys just entering into the league and impacting at a high level…Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Darnell Mooney, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, etc. WRs are walking into the league and producing…there is no more ‘you know WRs in year three’ theory anymore – the NFL has evolved past that.
And then there’s CeeDee Lamb (2-45-0/2)…the media’s favorite 2020 WR/‘generational talent’ hitting the league.
Working a very solid offense, with a #1 WR (Amari) taking all the top coverage heat and Michael Gallup being out for a stretch, and Lamb was pretty inconsequential this season…and his output faded off as the season wore on.
Lamb scored 2 TDs in his final 10 games of the 2021 season. He went over 70 yards in a game just twice in that 10-game span. He has not been a difference maker…just a guy on the field who is fine/solid/capable. I’d argue Cedrick Wilson (5-119-2/6) works harder and better when he’s pushed into a starting role for Dallas…and I’ve speculated on that going back to 2020 on Wilson v. Lamb. I think the Dallas offense looks better with Wilson in Lamb’s spot, and Lamb out. In 2021, working together…Wilson seems more interesting.
I’m doing a redo Dynasty Rookie Draft on CFM and DOBB right now, a mock draft using just the 2020 and 2021 rookies…and I don’t know if Lamb will make the top 20…or even make the official top 25 (which is how deep this particular mock will go). I’ve made 10 picks (posted) so far, as of this writing, and Lamb is nowhere to be found…and isn’t on my short list for the next 5+ picks.
Would you rather have Amon-Ra St. Brown or CeeDee Lamb for Dynasty going forward? If you don’t own CeeDee, you probably knee-jerked and thought ‘CeeDee, of course’…but that’s because we’re all affected by the media hype/coverage of him and playing for the Cowboys adds more hot sauce (in our minds) -- but you don’t know the reality. Lamb owners would likely be less likely to leap at Lamb over ARSB right now…and that’s just one example.
Darnell Mooney or Lamb? Easy choice for me, Mooney is far superior.
There’s a CeeDee Lamb issue happening/he’s not living up to expectations. At least Jerry Jeudy can blame his offense/QB. Lamb has no excuse for his mediocrity…except he’s mediocre, he always was.
-- Will Ezekiel Elliott (18-87-0, 1-3-0/3) be a 1st-round pick in redrafts next year? The easy thing to do is pile onto his bad 2021 season and say ‘no’, but…
1) People love to take RBs, for redraft, in the 1st-round…so much so the mere proposition of a WR or QB or TE 1st-round makes most FF player’s butt cheeks pucker up. I’ve seen and lived with that mindset for people for 5+ years now. It’s really weird how institutionalized we are on the Fantasy RB.
2) People also LOVE ‘Zeke’…remember that time he jumped in the Salvation Army bucket? Oh, those were the days.
Saquon is probably OUT as a 1st-round belief in redraft 2022…but Zeke still has enough heart strings pulled, and he’s a COWBOY so that’s a +1 value boost. He’ll probably be in most late-1st-round rankings in the mainstream, and thus the reality.
One thing I can guarantee you about Zeke in 2022…you will not see us with him in our 1st-round valuations, nor will I ever suggest you draft him in 2022. Let him be someone else’s problem or salvation (Army). There’s better RB value out there.
-- For whatever it is worth, I think the Eagles are starting to explore Jalen Reagor (3-10-0, 2-19-0/3) as their ‘Deebo Samuel’…and you know what? Reagor looks really good running the ball.
Three carries in this game…one of them was him as a straight-up running back/lone setback in the backfield. He’s failing as a traditional WR, but if they get him involved in a totally different way…jet sweeps, regular RB totes, and designed bubble screens…and just drop the regular WR stuff…maybe they get a weapon for the playoffs that will shock the Buccaneers as something they didn’t see coming.
But that’s just me…using logic…applying it to a league, a business, a thing that rarely uses logic.
FYI, Reagor has caught 57.4% (2020) and 57.9% (2021) of his pass targets in his two seasons in the NFL. Not good enough. Will the Eagles ever live down that they took Reagor in the 2020 NFL Draft…and then Justin Jefferson went in the next pick?
FYI #2: Had Jefferson gone to Philly we would not know him as the Jefferson we do today.
-- IDP note…
Eagles rookie DT Milton Williams (3 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) is perking up…the Pro Day measurables attention-getter in 2021 – Aaron Donald like measurables, but not an Aaron Donald-like college career.
In Williams’s final four games of the 2021 regular season: 2.3 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 0.50 PDs, 0.75 QB hits, 0.25 sacks per game. He’s starting ‘out athlete’ blockers in spots later in 2021…and encouraging sign/hope of something for the future.
Snap Counts of Interest:
69 = Reagor
43 = Ward
31 = Quez
14 = Devonta
39 = Gainwell
31 = Huntley
49 = lamb
46 = Amari
42 = C Wilson
37 = Zeke
17 = C Clement
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Steelers 16, Ravens 13 (By Ross Jacobs)
You've got to be kidding me with the Steelers. This team is so bad and yet now they've lucked their way into the playoffs thanks to the Colts. Unbelievable.
This was a sloppy game played in the rain between two not good teams and it showed. The Ravens actually led a good chunk of the game but got down later on and managed to send it to overtime where they just couldn't come up with a score.
Baltimore sustained too many injuries this year and their early season good fortune faded in the second half. Hard to remember they were the #1 seed at 8-3 at one point. They finished with 6 straight losses to end up with a losing record and we called it ahead of time.
Pittsburgh makes the playoffs for whatever that's worth, but they have absolutely no chance of winning the Super Bowl. This is quite possibly the worst team to make the playoffs that I've ever seen. They are downright painful to watch. Maybe they can cover the huge spread against the Chiefs, but a win seems highly unlikely.
Pittsburgh Dad Analysis: https://youtu.be/J1A3sApu9g0
"You knew what you're getting into when I came down the aisle in a Greg Lloyd jersey..."
Fantasy Notes
--I've been talking up Tyler Huntley since this preseason and he laid a real egg here. What happened? The rain mostly. It was very sloppy conditions and instead of taking shorter, easy throws, the Ravens were trying to attack middle/deep. It didn't work out too well as a couple of Huntley passes sailed on him a little bit for easy INT's. He really didn't play all the bad on the whole.
Huntley will be an exclusive right free agent in 2022 which means the Ravens can offer him a league minimum contract and he can't negotiate with other teams. They could also trade him if they get a large enough offer, but I highly doubt that happens. Huntley played well but I just cannot see another team trading away draft picks to bring him in as a potential starter. Not yet.
Most likely Huntley plays one more year in Baltimore as the backup and will sign with someone else to compete for a starting spot after that. He's a decent player, but I do think he needs to play in a system like Baltimore runs. If you try to jam him into anything else it's probably not going to go that well.
--What is the Baltimore backfield going to look like next year? You have to imagine we see the return of JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, but since both guys will be trying to come back from ACL injuries, I bet we see Baltimore bring in another capable back just in case. We know it's not going to be Ty'Son Williams....
--One thing I'll be watching very closely next preseason, is how targets are split between Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman. Bateman is for sure the better talent but Brown is still bff's with Lamar and Lamar isn't that great a passer anyways. If Bateman does pass Brown though, he could be in line for those force-fed targets Lamar was giving to Brown early on. Don't forget that Brown was tracking as a top 8 receiver the first half of the year. Bateman is a better player, so I'd love to see what he could do with 10 targets a game.
--Latavius Murray (16-150-1) had himself a huge game. Trust me when I say it wasn't Murray's doing. He's fine but he just runs straight ahead for what's blocked these days. You want to know what sprung him open so often? Ben Cleveland was mauling people.
Cam Heyward supposedly had such a great year and he was getting blown off the ball by Cleveland all game. I only saw Heyward beat Cleveland once on a run play. But the biggest gains were when Cleveland pulled to the right and just blasted whoever happened to be in his way. The run game is in good hands with this animal blocking for the next 10 years.
--RayRay McCloud continued his string of heavy targeting. Don't be fooled though. He's not very good and only catches screens and short drags. Also with Roethlisberger gone next year the targeting likely won't be so heavy and he'll fall farther behind Diontae and Claypool. Nothing to see here.
--One impressive rookie that I didn't initially like after the draft was Pat Freiermuth, but once RC and I got a look at him early on it was clear he could play. He's a Dalton Schultz level talent, pretty good, nice solid TE, but nowhere near, say, Kyle Pitts.
Now it's possible Freiermuth could work better for fantasy than Pitts considering the sorry state of the Falcons and their head coach. He nearly did this year (10.4 vs 9.5 ppg) but that was with Freiermuth scoring 7 TD's vs Pitts's 1. Do we really think Pitts is going to go another year only scoring 1 TD? I don't. I'll take Pitts heads up every time until proven otherwise.
IDP Notes
--Early in the year I liked the development I saw from Patrick Queen. He was flying around, attacking the line of scrimmage, making a lot of good plays. But I hadn't watched him in several weeks before this game, and let me tell you, what I saw here was not good.
Queen was constantly out of position, roaming around without purpose, missing tackles, getting blocked out of plays. It was downright ugly, the kind of thing you saw from him a lot in college. He's got all the physical talent to make it, but there's been a definite downward trend in his play recently.
I couldn't tell you why yet. Maybe the injuries around him have put more pressure on him, he's not as protected as he was early in the season. That would be my best guess. Regardless, I won't be surprised if Baltimore drafts an inside linebacker in 2022 to develop. If they do it's a very good sign they'll be moving on from Queen sooner rather than later.
--Got another good look at Chris Westry too after not seeing him in a while. He's got impressive height at 6'4” and moves pretty well for a guy that tall, but he's too easy to shake on short routes. His game is more straight line. Let him run deep and he can play bigger receivers well, but he was on Diontae a lot here and was getting torn up. That's not a crime. Diontae is really good. Just saying he should have been playing more on Claypool.
Snap Counts of Interest
69 = Claypool
65 = Diontae
50 = McCloud
62 = Bateman
58 = Brown
21 = Watkins
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Raiders 35, Chargers 32 (By Ross Jacobs)
Without a doubt one of the wildest, craziest games I've ever seen and it came with huge playoff implications in prime time as the last regular season game of the year. The NFL couldn't have asked for a better game.
In fact, it was so crazy and the situation so sensitive that Twitter was awash with people wondering if the game was rigged. That's how nuts this was.
With 5:00 minutes left the Chargers trailed 29-14. They had been mostly dominated by the Raiders all game and things looked bleak.
But Justin Herbert would not be denied and put the team on his back as impressively as any QB I've ever seen. His receivers were dog tired, could barely get open, dropping passes left and right. The offense would fail for three straight plays and then on 4th and forever Herbert would throw a laser beam right into a receiver with two guys blanketing him. He did this over and over. I have no idea how many 4th downs the Chargers converted but it was a huge number.
LA tied the game up as time expired and the game went into OT. Keep in mind that at this point, one of the big talking points was that if the game ended in a tie then both teams would make the playoffs and the Steelers would be left out. A few minutes prior Pittsburgh looked safe, but after LAC tied the game suddenly things got a lot more interesting. Would the two teams just play it safe and go for the tie?
It didn't start that way. Both of them came out determined to win and the Raiders were the first to strike with a FG. The Chargers tied it up on another miraculous drive and it was down to the Raiders with the ball just minutes left on the clock.
LV began running the ball every play milking the clock and the Chargers couldn't stop it. It looked like the Raiders might be willing to just run the clock out, but for whatever reason Brandon Staley called a timeout with about 30 seconds left on the clock.
There was no point to the move. He had no time to get the ball back and he had to know the Raiders were going to run the ball again either to set up the field goal or just run the clock out. Staley could have just left it alone and perhaps the Raiders wouldn't have attempted the field goal. But maybe not. We just don't know despite rampant speculation that they would have.
Regardless, after the timeout LV did indeed run the ball and then booted the winning field goal as time expired.
In a massive game, on prime time tv, your playoff hopes on the line, the Chargers played a miserable game and Staley failed in a way that won't soon be forgotten. They lost to an inferior team but one that was tougher and more disciplined. Without Herbert they wouldn't have even had a chance.
But to me out of all the things that the Chargers did wrong, the most egregious was watching their RT get straight up abused by Maxx Crosby literally every snap and they didn't adjust for it until the final minutes of the game.
The entire offense has been a mess to my eyes all year. Yes, they scored a lot of points, but it could have been so much better. I don't like all these stupid short routes just because the OC learned them from Sean Payton. Herbert is the best deep ball thrower in the entire league and you're hamstringing him every time you make him dump it short. I hate that Mike Williams gets mostly ignored until crunch time. I hate that they are so slow to make adjustments to what the defense is doing.
The OC needs to be replaced quite frankly, but they won't do it and I believe it's going to cost this team over the next couple years. Yet another brilliant young QB wasting years because coaches refuse to get their heads out of their asses.
The Chargers are too talented to fail badly in 2022. Herbert won't allow it. But how high is this team going to go? I have multiple questions about their approach and I'll remain skeptical until I see differently.
For the Raiders it's been a storybook season. They started off hot, tanked for a while, lost their head coach to a scandal, lost a WR to a drunk driving incident, lost a corner to an abuse allegation, and somehow rallied behind their interim head coach and slugged their way to 4 straight wins and a playoff berth.
All credit to them for hanging tough and fighting through so much adversity.
Unfortunately, this storybook tale likely ends in the first round of the playoffs. They are a scrappy, hard-fighting team for sure. They give everything they've got every week. But they just are not very talented and it looks like too big of a hill to claim to make a deep playoff run.
They now have to fly out to cold Cincinnati to play a rested and very tough team after spending every last bit of emotional energy trying to close out the Chargers. It's not a great recipe. I am a little weary of writing this team completely off though as they've shown how tough they are. I wouldn't surprise me to see them pull this one upset. It won't last though and at some point they will fall to a better team.
Fantasy Notes
--Did the Chargers finally, finally figure out that Big Mike is their best receiver? Maybe. He finished with 9-119-1 on 17 targets compared to only 8 for Keenan Allen. It wouldn't surprise me if they tried to bring him back next year and make him the 1A and Allen the 1B. That's how it should have been all year, but maybe we were just a little early.
--Another change I'd like to see next year is more time for Josh Palmer over Jalen Guton. Palmer did actually outsnap Guyton here although it was close. I don't think they can hold him down much longer. He's the future at WR for the Chargers, possibly as the #2 behind Mike.
--Hunter Renfrow finished as the ppr WR10 on the season and WR16 in points per game. It's a phenomenal accomplishment for a guy that was ignored by the masses until the middle of the season. We covered his rise early in the year when everyone else was still on the Ruggs train, and we also covered his fall these past four games as Zay Jones ascended.
That's the part getting lost in the Renfrow feel-good story. He tailed off hard the past four games. Over that span he averaged a mere 5.5 targets per game for 4 catches, 40 yards, and 1.0 TD's per game. Renfrow transformed from ppr monster in the mold of Julian Edelman into an uncoverable goalline specialist. Go figure.
--As Renfrow fell in importance to the offense, Jones was rising. His last four games he averaged 9 targets for 6 catches, 61 yards, and 0 TD's, essentially taking over the chain-moving role that Renfrow had filled for most of the year.
Jones is a talent in the mold of Diontae Johnson. He has great feet off the snap and a talent for accelerating at the last second to create separation. Neither guy is very big or particularly athletic, but they both know how to play receiver in a way that transcends their physical abilities.
Jones's early career got derailed in Buffalo due to some injuries and personal issues, but he's finally getting things turned around in LV.
--I have no interest in Bryan Edwards anymore. They've shown me no interest in him at all.
So which guy are we interested in for 2022? I'm going to have to think more about this, and I'd be curious to hear RC's answer, but my gut tells me I want in on Jones more than Renfrow. He's the better talent and the guy that Carr transitioned to late. I bet that carries over into next year. If Jones becomes Carr's Diontae that could be pretty sweet for ppr.
*RC NOTE: Let’s see if Zay returns, first. He’s a free agent at just the right time. But if Carr and Bisaccia are back, and it’s basically the same team/staff/offense – I’ll probably take Renfrow but I won’t rule out the right answer being Zay (if he’s back).
--All year long I heard about how great Darren Waller is and how much the offense was missing him blah blah blah. And then he comes out here and puts up 2 catches for 22 yards on 9 targets. He had that one monster game the first game of the season and everyone latched onto that as proof of his immortal status, but he only had 2 other games over 70 yards the rest of the year.
I was a fan until this year, but something is up with him. I've seen too many defenders shutting him down. Maybe he's been slowed by the injuries he was dealing with? I don't know but I'm definitely not as high on him for 2022 now.
IDP Notes
--What a great game from Uchenna Nwosu (7 tackles, 1 sack, 4 tfl, 1 pd). He was causing so much trouble for the LV offensive line, but his performance was kind of lost by all the attention Crosby got for destroying Storm Norton.
He's been a rotational pass rusher most of the year, but his snaps have been trending up recently and he finally seems to be delivering on the promise he showed as a 2nd round pick in 2018. Not the biggest guy, he's a very quick, active rusher that tries to beat people with speed. Sometimes guys like that take some time to figure out how to get by very athletic NFL blockers. I'll be watching him next year to see if he's ready to make a bigger jump.
Snap Counts of Interest
82 = Allen
67 = Williams
56 = Palmer
50 = Guyton
71 = Zay
56 = Edwards
51 = Renfrow
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Bills 27, Jets 10 (By Ross Jacobs)
The score looks like a blowout, but this game was 13-10 in the 4th quarter. The Bills managed to put it away shortly after and the win was never really in doubt, but you have to give the Jets some credit for keeping it close that long.
The last four weeks we've seen some good growth from the Jets. They hung in with the Dolphins and Bills and nearly beat the Bucs. I do think there is some reason for optimism with them the next couple years. They have a decent foundation in theory with Zach Wilson, Becton, Tucker, and several solid players on defense. Fill in the gaps with a few more smart free agent pickups, hit on a couple draft picks, and you've got yourself a competitive team.
Buffalo comes into the playoffs as a quiet #3 seed. There was a lot of hype about them early in the year before a series of losses, including an embarrassing one to the Jags, sent them tumbling down the ranks. They closed out the season strong with four straight wins, but three of those were against some of the worst teams in the league, the Panthers, Falcons, and Jets.
Their lone really good win this year was an early season smackdown of the Chiefs. They've lost to most of the other good teams they've played although that's only a few teams really. Honestly they've had a rather pathetic schedule looking back on it, and it's a wonder they only won 11 games.
So are they a fake good team? It's really hard to say. They've mostly destroyed the bad teams, and it's possible they just had bad outings against better teams like the Colts and Bucs. I have noticed that physical run-first teams seem to give them lots of problems, and quite frankly McDermott seems to fold in big moments.
I think they are as good as any team in the AFC and could absolutely win the Super Bowl if things fall right, but I doubt I'll be betting on them. I think teams like the Titans and Packers will destroy them.
If they win, it will be because Josh Allen goes full Superman and carries them on his back. I've seen more shaky moments from him this year than I expected. Not sure if it's him or the offense. He has some moments of sheer brilliance so I think maybe he's pressing knowing that he's got to carry the team, a lot like what Mahomes has dealt with this year.
One thing the team could do to help him is let him run more. That would open things up a lot if defenses had to fear him taking off more often.
Fantasy Notes
--It's been a rough first year for Zach Wilson, but that was to be expected. We all knew he was going to a terrible team with no wide receivers and not much in the way of blocking. When he lost Becton for the year there was no hope.
It's far too early to write him off, but I just can't get fully on board with Wilson the way I did with Burrow and Herbert. Wilson has too many things working against him in my opinion.
He's smaller and is already getting banged up far too often for one. He also had the misfortune of being one of the media's hated QB's. I'll never understand how the crowd decides who that guy is going to be, but I know it's Wilson and they'll stop at nothing to tear him down. He also has the misfortune of playing for the Jets. Bad teams stay bad for a reason, and this franchise has shown no ability to change for a long, long time now.
I believe in Wilson's talent no doubt. He could be a very good NFL QB under the right circumstances. But I also don't believe he has transcendent talent like some of the other young QB's. He needs help, and I don't think he's likely to get it.
Maybe things break right and he has a Goff-like resurgence for a few years, but much like Goff, eventually the media will come for him when he falters for even a moment and they'll get league opinion of him shot to hell if it's not already.
I think he's worth holding for another year in deep dynasty leagues if you've got the space, but there are interesting QB's coming into the league every year now. 20 years ago Wilson would have been special, a top 5 talent. These days he's just another pretty good player among many. I don't think he's worth chasing too hard. Besides, his value isn't going higher anytime soon, so we can reassess next preseason and you'll be able to grab him for pennies then if we think a breakout is coming.
--Well it only took the Bills three years to figure out what RC and I have been saying this entire time. Devin Singletary is their best back and it's not even close. 5 TD's in his last four games with at least 1 TD in all each and over 80 yards in three of them. His one down game was against the Patriots where he only got 12 carries but made up for it with 5 catches for another 40 yards. He's averaged 19 carries a game over this stretch.
The man is on fire, and it appears the Bills have finally figured out how to run the ball. Unfortunately, they draw the Patriots again in the first round and I'd expect Belichick to clamp down on the run game again. He'll try to force Allen to stay in the pocket and beat him through the air. Could be a good environment for check downs to Singletary though as we saw last time they played.
Assuming they get past NE and KC handles business with the Steelers, those two teams will match up next, and that looks like a great place for Singletary to have a big game. Do not sleep on Singletary in these playoffs.
--Dawson Knox had another good year, but I don't see any signs of him taking that next leap into the elite TE group. He's pretty good but still a little shaky with his hands at times, and Allen still doesn't go to him often enough to push big numbers. He lives and dies with the TD's. Looks like a TE1 again in 2022 to me but more in the 8-12 range.
--Gabriel Davis made the jump to #2 WR for Buf a few weeks ago and we talked about the transition at the time. He's solid enough, not my favorite receiver, but Allen seems to love him especially around the endzone.
The connection was a bit off here and Davis couldn't seem to shake the sticky Jets corners, thus only 3 catches on 14 targets. That sounds damning that he couldn't beat the Jets, but as I've been saying for quite a while now, I've been very impressed with how tightly the Jets corners stick to people. It takes some brilliant throws to beat them.
I think Davis is fine and could be in for a very nice playoff run. In 2022 he might end up being a great value pick late as a WR2-3 hopeful that people price as a WR4-5.
--I want to see what changes the Jets make in the off-season, but I'm going to be very interested in snagging Michael Carter as a potential sneaky RB1-1.5. We saw what he could do earlier in the year in ppr when Mike White was tossing him so many dumpoff passes. If Wilson could figure out how to do that Carter has some discount-Ekeler ability (discount because the offense won't be scoring that many TD's). The great thing about Carter is he can be part of a rotation and it won't matter so long as he gets his catches.
--Denzel Mims led the team in WR snaps this week after they had been growing for a few weeks now. I still see no signs that he's going to do anything with this team. They don't seem interested in getting him the ball at all. He looks good moving around so I don't know what the problem is. Bet he reunites with Rhule and the Panthers before long.
IDP Notes
--One rookie I noticed a lot this year was Greg Rousseau. He has quietly played a large amount of snaps and put together a very nice rookie campaign. I've seen nothing to suggest he's a future star pass rusher, but he fits in perfectly with the rest of the Buffalo defense. He's a big, strong guy that does his job, stays in his lane, and pushes the pocket.
He's probably never going to put up a ton of sacks or get much recognition, especially playing for Buffalo, but he's a perfect role player for a defense that is greater than the sum of its parts.
--Another guy that fits that mold for this defense is Ed Oliver. I did actually expect Oliver to be a star when he first entered the league, but it just hasn't happened. I thought he could be the next best thing to Aaron Donald.
No such luck but Oliver is another Buffalo soldier in the middle. He does his job and that motor never stops. He popped up here on the stat sheet with 4 tackles and 1.5 sacks, but that's more a function of a bad Jets offensive line and Wilson trying to do too much than anything Oliver was doing.
Snap Counts of Interest
75 = Davis
67 = Diggs
42 = Beasley
22 = McKenzie
62 = Singletary
18 = Moss
35 = Mims
34 = Jeff Smith
28 = Cole
24 = Carter
15 = Ty Johnson
10 = Coleman
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Dolphins 33, Patriots 24
A must-win game for NE to try and win the AFC East, and they flopped. Not a crime…going to Miami late season is always tough for opponents as players ‘partake’ in the Miami life and also may not be totally adapted to the change in climate. Whatever the reason, the Patriots got beat off the jump and could never really catch up.
The big news involving anything from these two teams was the somewhat surprise firing of Brian Flores soon after. Back-to-back winning seasons, and then fired. No matter what you think of Flores (and I’m not a fan)…what is any coach to do to make anyone happy to retain jobs as head coaches? Flores, to me, is a terrible head coach (with his worst characteristic being offensive personnel management) and I wouldn’t want him as my team’s HC, but in the big picture of things…he did ‘win’ here.
That’s how you know someone is an awful human/leader/communicator behind the scenes, as a head coach, because Flores won games and still got fired. He got dumped, by and large, because people don’t like him…and they can probably see he’s a terrible judge of offensive talent as well. Whoever steals this job has a golden opportunity in a place that players want to play/go to live/raise a family and play in a lot of warm weather games with no state tax on their earnings.
Who will the Dolphins choose to be the new head coach? I couldn’t care less. I will start out assuming whomever they choose will also fail within three years, but I’m willing for them to prove me wrong. My money would be on whatever coach they think Deshaun Watson wants to play for.
Flores is an ex-Patriot tie, so he will be the next Houston coach. The ‘shock’ availability of Flores on the market causes the Culley firing. The Houston GM is an ex-Pat. The Houston spiritual leader to the owner and GM is an ex-Pat. Culley was not. An ex-Pat is going to be hired as H-C in Houston…likely Flores. And they can all get swept away together in 2-4 years and go back to working for Belichick.
The Patriots lose but are headed to the playoffs. The Patriots have been in a nose dive since their Week 14 BYE…(1-3) to finish the season with their lone win over Jacksonville. The Patriots are one of the worst teams among the playoff group and will likely get squashed by Buffalo, unless the cold weather helps them sneak by. Even if NE slips past Buffalo, they won’t go any further than that. The playoff team with the worst QB among all the teams cannot make a run for the title.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- It sounds like one of the tipping points of Flores getting fired was his fighting with Tua Tagovailoa (15-22 for 109 yards, 1 TD/0 INT). I’m not sure if I totally buy it…I mean, it was Flores who slit his own throat mid-2020 season by pulling Ryan Fitzpatrick for Tua in the first place.
But just like fans get cranky about their team’s head coach right away, for not winning every game by 20+ points, head coaches get tired of their QB (if they’re not elite, and sometimes when they are)…because when head coaches lose, they tend to blame the QB.
So…did Miami management just side with Tua over Flores? Big mistake if they did. I can believe that Flores was done with Tua (like he was done with Rosen, like he was done with Fitzpatrick…his first starting QBs), but the GM didn’t want to be embarrassed by the pick…so, the GM bought himself another year of shifting blame for Tua’s shortcomings on the outgoing Flores. If a condition of taking the Miami job is ‘Tua is your starter’, then Miami is about to get a very sad coach because the GM is trying to cover his ass. No respectable coach with options will choose Miami if they HAVE to work with Tua.
-- If Tua stays, Jaylen Waddle (5-27-1/7) has a chance to be a WR1 in PPR again in 2022, but the risk will be the new coach breaks up the Tua-Waddle party with ‘a new system’ he brings.
-- They might have fired Flores because of what he did at running back the past two years.
How he could have purposely pushed Myles Gaskin (1-0-0, 3-11-0/3) over Jordan Howard in 2020 is criminal. Howard hated playing there – that was another sign that there were Flores issues. How could Flores pick Gaskin over anybody at RB?
So, Flores sticks by Gaskin from 2020 to this 2021 season, without drafting or signing any decent RB to challenge him in 2021. Then, all of a sudden, Philip Lindsay (11-40-0) became available midseason…and Flores grabs him and starts to push him, but then he and Gaskin get COVID, so Flores has to use Duke Johnson (25-117-1, 1-5-0/1) for an emergency starts…and Duke does well, and then suddenly Duke Johnson is his workhorse back. Almost two years of a useless Gaskin push, and then Gaskin loses his job due to COVID…to the illustrious Duke Johnson.
Whomever the new Miami head coach is – that RB group is gonna get turned upside down via draft or free agency or both in 2022.
Hopefully someone will realize the opportunity there is in making Philip Lindsay a great pass game back who can take 5-10 carries as well but can also be a lead back if the lead back is down for any time.
-- First 12 games for Mac Jones (20-30 for 261 yards, 1 TD/1 INT): 16 TDs/8 INTs…a great start for a rookie.
Jones’s last five games: 6 TDs/5 INTs and a (2-3) record that should’ve been (1-3). I think the Mac Jones/NE offense is getting figured out, as is Mac Jones.
As the season wore on, Jones faded some…while Davis Mills, in a much tougher environment, got better. I still think it is very possible Mills is the better rookie QB than Jones, but there’s still time for both to grow and we’ll see. Right now, I take Mills over Jones…but ‘neither’ would be my preference.
-- Jakobi Meyers (4-70-0/8) is Mac Jones’s BFF WR, right now. The season started with Meyers as his BFF…then there was a small stretch where Kendrick Bourne looked like he had made his move, but now it’s back to Meyers – 6.0 rec. (9.0 targets), 61.5 yards, 0.25 TDs the last 4 weeks of the season…a WR2-2.5 in PPR. That’s about Meyers’ ceiling.
Meyers ends the season #16 in total catches (83) among WRs this season. If you looked at the top 20 names in catches at WR this season, they would all make instant sense to you…with Meyers being the one surprise.
-- Damien Harris (11-37-1, 4-34-0/40 is back healthy and is the clear lead back when he is…he still shares, but the guy Belichick leans on/wants is Harris of the RBBC.
Brandon Bolden (7-46-1, 2-20-1/2) had a nice game as the #2 back this game, but I think he bumped Rhamondre Stevenson (4-34-0, 1-2-0/2) this game, in part, because of the circumstances of this game…NE got down quick and was in a lot of hurry up/pass game mode, and that’s Bolden’s domain.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Duke J
15 = Lindsay
07 = Gaskin
55 = Agholor
52 = Meyers
36 = Bourne
12 = Harry
30 = Harris
28 = Bolden
09 = Stevenson
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
