Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st, obviously everyone is healthy, and running our data to the NFL schedule and seeing 'what happens' and then taking that right through the playoffs.
This will be a series -- three weeks of results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
When the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all this in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
#5 seed Bills (12-6) at #1 seed Bengals (13-4)
The Bengals win 70% of the simulations.
The Bills revenge game? Hardly. The\ Bills just are not as good as the Bengals…just like when Cincy goes and smacks KC around almost every time they face each other the past couple seasons. The revenge juice is drowned out by the other team just being better.
#3 seed Chiefs (14-4) at #2 seed Miami (14-4)
Chiefs win 53% of the simulations.
This game being 'at Miami' is such an advantage, but more of an advantage is the Chiefs experience in this type of spot. These two teams play Week 9, and it's being played in Germany. Back on American soil, the more experienced team narrowly pulls it out on the road.
