RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...
Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
SUN 6/29
(7:41amET)
-- From an NBC report yesterday...
Per ESPN’s Jeff Legwold, “Payton expects the depth chart to automatically reveal itself” during training camp, when all running backs on the roster are “going to get opportunities.” Reports immediately following J.K. Dobbins’ signing suggested the veteran back could snatch the starting role from rookie RJ Harvey. Legwold believes “Dobbins likely has the early advantage for the most snaps in the room because of his ability as a pass blocker and intelligence on third down,” but Payton’s comments indicate a true competition will take place next month.
This news follows similar opinions and thoughts since the JKD signing that are slowly bringing R.J. Harvey’s value/ADP down and J.K. Dobbins’ value/ADP obviously going up in FF.
I don’t think this competition is a ‘winner take all’ kind of thing. It’s merely fulfilling the words Sean Payton has been saying for two years...and for several years, really. He wants a multi-headed RB group game-to-game. He doesn’t want to run behind one workhorse RB. Two is the minimum, three is preferred...going back to his time with the Saints.
And his years with Denver...the RBs have been garbage for FF.
Javonte Williams + Jaleel McLaughlin + Samaje Perine in 2023...none of them were in the top 30 for FF PPG.
Javonte + Jaleel + Audric Estime in 2024...Javonte would have a moment where it looked like he was gonna try to be the guy, then nope...Jaleel would start, but not finish, then Javonte would only be ‘3rd-down guy’, then Payton would talk up Estime...and round-and-round it went. Remember that one week (2024) where Payton ran Estime as the workhorse against the Chiefs without warning (14-53-0 rushing, season highs in every category) and sent FF waivers into a tizzy the following week? The following week, Estime didn’t start and played just 23% of the snaps and put up a serious FF-dud (6-16-0 rushing, but an odd season high 3 targets). Estime disappeared for a few weeks after the KC start, and then got some more time the final 3 games, but then didn’t touch the ball in the playoffs.
Sean Payton wants ‘chaos’ in his backfield...unpredictable flow week-to-week, series-to-series, play-to-play...more like how Bill Belichick would do things, but Payton took it deeper with the Saints.
We’re not gonna know one week to the next who is starting, who is taking the main touches, etc. It will be a game-by-game, series-by-series decision.
Dobbins will probably take most 1st and 2nd down touches to start the season, with RJH sliding in-and-out as a weapon back, especially in 2-minute times and situations where they’re behind and throwing. But when they get up and get control of a game, Estime is gonna be the hammer to close things out...sometimes...Payton doesn’t want to be too predictable. There will be some games where Estime out-carries Dobbins...and some games where Harvey does, but no one will know when they are coming/ebbing and flowing.
I don’t want any of the Denver backs, for the price, for FF 2025. Harvey will be solid for PPR overall, but impossible to predict week-to-week...but he’ll be overpriced in ADP (because rookies are magical unicorns capable of anything). The other 2-3 Denver RBs...not interested much at all. Maybe Estime in non-PPR as a FF-backup...if he even makes the Broncos 53-man (I assume he will, but not assured).
As to the original article about JKD getting the majority of touches and working 3rd-downs because of his experience? I think that’s a ‘no’ and ‘no’...it’s not Payton’s plan, and on top of that...I don’t think JKD is even that good anymore. He’s a #3-4 RB talent today with #1 RB old draft stock and hope/memories.
-- Planned to post tonight, for the Draft Guide reports: ‘The HOLY’ list of players for FF 2025. To help focus on 1st-round pick and the first 2-3-4 rounds potential paths in a redraft.
Next week we will start doing mock drafts, and publishing them, to work out the various theories/paths from the different spots to draft from.
-- Here’ s another pleasant Tyler Shough piece...
There’s just something about Shough. Always has been for me, but that is probably the kiss of death. He’ll lose the first two games and the Saints we’ll all turn on him and complain in chat rooms and comment sections on how ‘they’ should’ve drafted Shedeur.
Football fans are the worst.
Shough is what you want in a ‘leader’ personality...how good he will be, how much leeway he gets is unknown/scares me to think of how they (the system) will try to torpedo him and judge him for good after 2-4-6 games.
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Carolina.
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Michael Penix
Kyler Murray
Bryce Young
-- I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
Buffalo
Baltimore
Arizona
Atlanta
Carolina
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series begins July 1st...we’ll kick it off, with...of course...Arch Manning.
*The receiver group ‘tournament’ has begun and runs for a week+. A full division per day then the playoffs and the finale/Super Bowl.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Draft Guide rankings have been updated for the week. Next update after July 4th weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
=====================
*FASTDRAFT is opening up more, new all-rookie Best Ball type contests and tournaments...and some lower cost ones to have fun with. Put your rookie studies to the test in a contest available in most states. More info on FastDraft and promo codes for initial deposit matches below:
***For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code (FFM) for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Playerprofiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.
Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code
I think FFMers could do quite well in the unique contests they have…especially jumping on things early, ahead of the curve -- like the all-Rookie (2025 class) FF draft/lineup contest and the D-Up/all IDP Best Ball tournament play. They are trying to bring unique game play to the DFS/Best Ball draft world, I think you might enjoy.***
*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...
1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.
2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.
SAT 6/28
(7:23amET)
-- When will the mainstream turn on Garrett Wilson?
How is it that George Pickens is deemed as ‘such a problem’ (and he is, in a way), but Garrett Wilson just skates by similarly/approx. as productive as Pickens, definitely less talented than Pickens, and is also a growing locker room/teammate issue (the whispers are getting louder the past two years)? I don’t understand why Wilson gets a ‘pass’ while Pickens is seen as a devil.
Pairing Fields and Wilson is not wise...not gonna be what the Jets think/hope, unless Aaron Glenn can straighten out Wilson...and I don’t think that can happen because the entire football system has blown so much smoke up Garrett Wilson’s arse for the past 3+ years that he is not gonna take criticism any better than Fields did in Chicago.
I don’t think Garrett Wilson will be a Jet in a year or two.
He’s going to be a perfect inflated/bloated/overrated Browns-like acquisition that they then pay 1.5x market price/salary to...as they do, as they have done with WRs for years.
-- If I see another ‘the 49ers have such an easy schedule, they are gonna win the NFC West and you must get all their players for FF’ report, I’m gonna get sick.
Out of curiosity, I went out to look back at the 2024 Strength of Schedules to see how they turned out...
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nfl/strength-of-schedule/2024-season/
The top 10 TOUGHEST schedules: Five of the 10 teams made the playoffs, three of them won their divisions.
The top 10 EASIEST schedules: Two out of the 10 teams made the playoffs, one of them won the division.
For whatever that snapshot is worth...
Yes, you’d like an easier schedule on paper than a more difficult one...but so much in the NFL changes in a year, and injuries hit so fast and furious in-season...it’s impossible to truly know who has the easiest and toughest schedules, and if they do have a tough or easy schedule, how that team will handle it. Go ahead and give the Browns an easy schedule...what do you think they’re gonna do with it? Will the 49ers cash in on a supposed easy schedule? Maybe. How healthy will CMC be? Has he lost a step? Is Trent Williams going to get hurt again on-and-off all season?
On paper, SOS is interesting offseason data we all try to consider the impact on. In reality, it’s fluid and ever-changing week-to-week in-season.
-- Just a quick update on the exciting international players from last season...
-- FYI: The NFL has informed teams there will be no Supplemental Draft this year.
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun. Today’s add: Buffalo.
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Michael Penix
Kyler Murray
-- I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
Buffalo
Baltimore
Arizona
Atlanta
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series begins July 1st...we’ll kick it off, with...of course...Arch Manning.
*The receiver group ‘tournament’ has begun and runs for a week+. A full division per day then the playoffs and the finale/Super Bowl.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Draft Guide rankings have been updated for the week. Next update after July 4th weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
=====================
*FASTDRAFT is opening up more, new all-rookie Best Ball type contests and tournaments...and some lower cost ones to have fun with. Put your rookie studies to the test in a contest available in most states. More info on FastDraft and promo codes for initial deposit matches below:
***For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code (FFM) for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Playerprofiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.
Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code
I think FFMers could do quite well in the unique contests they have…especially jumping on things early, ahead of the curve -- like the all-Rookie (2025 class) FF draft/lineup contest and the D-Up/all IDP Best Ball tournament play. They are trying to bring unique game play to the DFS/Best Ball draft world, I think you might enjoy.***
*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...
1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.
2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.
FRI 6/27
(7:59amET)
-- Headline from yesterday: Bucs signed GM Jason Licht and HC Todd Bowles to a multi-year contract extension.
This made me stop and take note...the Bucs have been one of the better run teams for the past few years. Even if they just lucked into Baker Mayfield, they still get the credit.
Tampa Bay has won this division four years in a row, and five years ago they finished 2nd, made the wild card...and won the Super Bowl.
Todd Bowles has as many playoff wins (1) in the past 5 years as Sean Payton has had. Bowles has one more playoff win than Kevin O’Connell (0) has in the past three years. Mike Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game in 8 years...so, Bowles deserves a little love here.
But I give Jason Licht the bulk of the credit for the recent Bucs run of goodness...a very low key, good+ NFL GM. It’s somewhat luck/stupidity of their prior teams that Brady and Baker were available for them, but credit to Licht...he got them both.
I could see the Bucs getting to the Super Bowl this season. A top QB, a solid O-Line, an improved defense. +1300 to win the NFC on DK. Hmmm.
-- Yesterday we shared some Braelon Allen news, and we got another bit of news/opinion on Braelon (and Breece) to look at today. It’s not a drop the mic moment or anything, but what struck me about this is...this opinion (in an article below) is from a player who just retired...from Miami, so he faced the Jets twice last season...so, Terron Armstead’s opinion is quite interesting, quite unique.
One interesting/subtle item from this...he mentions Breece and Braelon...and that’s all, not Isaiah Davis.
I’m starting to get a wee bit excited about the slowly growing Braelon talk...and I. Davis silence. Braelon is still behind Breece for 2025, for sure...but I think insiders, players, etc., can see that there is something strong with Braelon. And I still don’t totally rule out Breece being traded in August, if someone gave them a 2nd-round pick.
-- I just wanted to highlight this interview (below) because I just love the way Tyler Shough speaks and the way he handles himself in interviews. Doesn’t mean he’s gonna be a success in the NFL, or not...but this is how you want your leader/employee to speak -- earnest, honest, humble with confidence.
https://www.nfl.com/news/saints-qb-tyler-shough-ready-to-deal-with-ups-downs-of-being-rookie-starter
I really hope he succeeds...it would be such a great redemption and scouting story. One of the greatest offseason rises in prospect status at QB that I’ve ever seen.
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month for fun. Today’s add: Lamar.
Lamar Jackson
Michael Penix
Kyler Murray
-- I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
Let me do the three teams in alphabetical order to catch up to the QB hierarchy list already underway...
Baltimore
Arizona
Atlanta
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series begins July 1st...we’ll kick it off, with...of course...Arch Manning.
*The receiver group ‘tournament’ begins today and runs for a week+. A full division per day then the playoffs and the finale/Super Bowl.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP. Dont’e Thornton planned for publish today.
*Draft Guide rankings 1.0 have posted. Next update 6/27-28 range due to travel schedule last week.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
=====================
**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)
-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).
-- Sign up for the App as if you’re brand new to FFM...it’s a separate ‘thing’/brain from the site. You can use your same exact username/password signing up for the App, to keep it easy for you to remember.
-- Enable the App notifications to get a notification sent to your device when key reports are posted, and/or (especially) in-season when we get inside info/intel from sources before anyone else and it might be news we all need to FF-act on quickly before the world finds out.
-- App tip #1 (FYI): Upper Left (three lines) on App home page, click it, then click profile, then click ‘Push notifications’ – and you’ll see all the alerts we’ve sent in chronological order. App tip #2 (FYI)...if you see things posted but you got no device notification, but you are enabled for notifications…go to your phone’s ‘Settings’>Apps>FFM App>Click the Notifications off then on…like a reboot. I don't know why this works but it does to kick the phone back into business.
*Android App version may be unavailable this week as we have to file new papers with Google...there’s no more hassle in the world than the constant twists of paperwork compliance for Apps on Google or Apple. And the process is...they just freeze or disappear your App until you do the most minute thing they decided was needed that week. But it will be up again shortly, if not showing this day.
THU 6/26
(7:30amET)
-- NBC headline from yesterday: Kyler Murray said Marvin Harrison Jr. is more confident this season than he was in 2024.
I’m not even going into the details. Last year, at this time, they were all cooing over how great Marv was and how advanced he is...and then he was not that last year. I don’t know if they are just trying to talk him up to try to get him better...or if they are trying to talk themselves into it...or if they just buy into the psy-op on him from years of media reports and when he makes a play in shorts & t-shirt practices, it validates their hypnosis and they go out and speak about it.
I do now...I love these stories being planted to prop up his ADP, which is slowly rising now as people get the Marvin itch...a seed planted in their brains last year, and they won’t give up on it easily.
Of course, a 2nd-year player is more comfortable than a 1st-year player...why is this even a blurb on the football day? Because the media is also trying to convince themselves they are on the right team/that they aren’t wildly wrong.
-- I was listening to Colin Cowherd on a YouTube clip have some more ‘personal discovery’ (the speeding tickets) that Shedeur Sanders might be a problem with his immaturity and actions.
Colin was one of the leaders of ‘this ____ (issue) doesn’t matter’, he’s a young kid...you old people don’t get the young people of today...he’s gonna be a really good NFL QB’. Now, over the past months/since the draft, Colin is realizing Shedeur is a mess. Credit to him, Colin is admitting he is changing opinion. New info in, new opinion. I’m totally cool with it...that’s the way it’s supposed to work. How he, and the entire media missed this by a mile all pre-Draft is perplexing...but not only did they miss it, the top media people were staunch defenders of it -- we (the people) were the problem, and they (the holy media) only understood the nuances.
But what caught my attention even more was -- Colin’s sidekick chimed in with the tired/lazy...’It’s just a speeding ticket...young people get stupid sometimes’ type of soft defense. And that got me thinking about something...
All things, for me, seem to come back to the TV show ‘90 Day Fiancé’. So many lessons to be learned studying people...and ‘90 Day Fiancé’ is one of the places I enjoy observe humans.
It always fascinates me that the couples on 90 Day fiancé (who have 90 days to get married, because the international person is now in the U.S. on a 90 day visa) suddenly get 30-60+ days to live with this fiancé in the U.S., live a normal life...not the international vacation/sleepover life + online chat life that they started the relationship on...it’s now real life with this person, and we get to watch how they handle it.
And the American almost always starts to see the ‘issues’ with the international fiancé once they are living real U.S. life with them...little issues, sometimes big issues...and each issue is usually excused for some rationale. And as a watcher of the show, I am always amazed that we (the viewers) see all these issues and they’re all excused individually by the people on the show -- but rare is it that a person on the show/in the situation evaluates/ponders the collection of issues and realizes the gravity of the situation collectively. It's just the issues dealt with individually like they are in a vacuum. I always wonder why they do this...why not add up all the pieces of evidence? I think it’s because they have an end goal/dream of getting married, and they are going to leap the hurdles to get to the prize...and thus miss or excuse all the warning signs, because they NEED this to work to fulfill the dream or not look a fool to their families, etc. Then they get married, and you can guess what happens in the long (or short) run to these glaringly obvious troubled-form-the-start relationships.
The media tends to do the same thing with football prospects. They take a stance, a stance they took/poached from some other voice/opinion maker or they were moved by the one game they saw the player in (usually a playoff game) or cool highlight play that one time or whatever...they establish a position and then they defend that player at all costs, find analytics or anything to prove their stance, and overlook many red flag items as just an isolated incident.
It’s just a speeding ticket...
It’s just two speeding tickets...
OK, he failed to show up to court for an appearance but he’s young...
You have to understand it’s his O-Line in the big games where he looked like a fool and the Buffs lost big...
You have to realize his Dad’s actions/words are to blame...not Shedeur.
You have to realize he is just a young man in the era of social media, so you old fuddy-duddies don’t understand his new era confidence...
So what if he acted arrogant in his Combine press conference...he’s just ‘confident’ and rich in these NIL days.
So what if he acted like an unprepared fool in NFL team pre-Draft private meetings...he just didn’t want to play for those teams anyway!
So what if he couldn’t pass the playbook tests with teams...he shouldn’t have to be subject to that, he wants his tape/play to tell the story...
So what if every team hated their private interviews with him...they’re just trying to drive down his draft stock...and any reporter reporting that is also trying to hurt Shedeur’s draft stock, and Deion is going to call them.
So what if he spent $1M on a draft night party...
So what if he owns 7 luxury vehicles and has multiple homes...
Any one item on its own might be forgivable, maybe, but what about connecting 2-3-4-5-6-7-8+ of them together? Are we gonna ignore all the signs like the people on 90 Day Fiancé?
I always hear people say, oh those reality shows are all fake and scripted. I don’t think they are, at their core...although I’m sure there is various production things you do when shooting a reality show -- but the core of most every relationship on there and all the drama/issues, I don’t think they are scripted characters for the audience -- I think it’s a giant, figurative mirror held up to all of us. They are us; we are them...they just happen to have a camera recording it all. These people are not scripted actors -- I think most of them really are that dumb, naive, shallow...it’s not an act. Good people, many of them...just trying to find love...but going about it in all the wrong ways and ignoring all the evidence of ‘issues’.
Naïve and silly people are roaming all around society...and they are on reality shows and also work in corporate buildings at all levels, and work in professional football as coaches or scouts or commentators or Fantasy Football writers. The NFL is not filled with the best of the best, but we treat the NFL like it’s some holy profession we should all bow down to.
Sorry for the side track rant. Not even sure I made any sense...not even sure why I just typed all that. I let the spirit move me...
But did you see Shedeur’s completion percentage last year?
-- Our DRD mock series ends today, and then our ‘best receiver group’ series begins tomorrow. A team-by-team tournament style battle to see what team has the top receiving group in the game today/for 2025.
-- A mildly interesting article about football teams and A.I.
The funniest part of the article was: Walder also asked which teams were the most analytically driven in the NFL. The Browns took the top spot in most of those areas, including having a league-leading 10 employees who focus on AI and analytics. About half the league showed up somewhere in the conversation as far as being analytically advanced. The Raiders were not among them.
If the pitch for A.I. is ‘the Browns are leaders’, the single worst run team in the NFL...then A.I. has a long way to go before it’s adopted more in the league.
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month for fun. Here are the first two ranked to get us started:
Michael Penix
Kyler Murray
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series begins July 1st...we’ll kick it off, with...of course...Arch Manning.
*Dynasty Rookie Draft series 2.0 continues -- going through another run of Five-Round Mock DRDs from each of the 12 draft slots (12 tm lg). Will run from 6/14-6/26. One slot reports out per day.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP. Working on Gadsden and Thornton among others.
*Draft Guide rankings 1.0 have posted. Next update 6/27-28 range due to travel schedule last week.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
=====================
**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)
-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).
-- Sign up for the App as if you’re brand new to FFM...it’s a separate ‘thing’/brain from the site. You can use your same exact username/password signing up for the App, to keep it easy for you to remember.
-- Enable the App notifications to get a notification sent to your device when key reports are posted, and/or (especially) in-season when we get inside info/intel from sources before anyone else and it might be news we all need to FF-act on quickly before the world finds out.
-- App tip #1 (FYI): Upper Left (three lines) on App home page, click it, then click profile, then click ‘Push notifications’ – and you’ll see all the alerts we’ve sent in chronological order. App tip #2 (FYI)...if you see things posted but you got no device notification, but you are enabled for notifications…go to your phone’s ‘Settings’>Apps>FFM App>Click the Notifications off then on…like a reboot. I don't know why this works but it does to kick the phone back into business.
*Android App version may be unavailable this week as we have to file new papers with Google...there’s no more hassle in the world than the constant twists of paperwork compliance for Apps on Google or Apple. And the process is...they just freeze or disappear your App until you do the most minute thing they decided was needed that week. But it will be up again shortly, if not showing this day.
WED 6/25
(7:19amET)
-- NBC Headline: Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer believes former Raiders WR Henry Ruggs could be signed by an NFL team in 2026.
RC Note = I thought Ruggs was an overrated WR prospect in 2020, so I’m not super-excited about his FF-prospects in 2026 (if)...but in super-deep Dynasty leagues, it may be a ‘name’ to maybe possess on a taxi squad or last spot on the bench...with the hopes of someday ultimately to use as a trade chip when the hype gets increased upon his return...maybe?
I checked on ‘Sleeper’ App for Ruggs, and he was available/there...wasn’t sure if he would even be an active player this year.
Usually, our cult is actively working the roster...even in a 32-team, 53-man roster situation -- every roster spot matters, and taxi squad level guys are going on-and-off the team often...that’s why I hesitate to push this as an idea because you’d have to be invested for at least a year, and you will likely want that spot for something else. BUT, it’s newsworthy...so, just bringing it up.
-- What Aaron Glenn told Braelon Allen in their first meeting with Glenn taking over...
"The first meeting I had with him, he said I trust you and I believe in you," Allen told team reporter Caroline Hendershot. "He said he was impressed with what he saw last year, and I think that's all that I need to hear. As long as they know what I can do, I know those opportunities are going to come and it's on me to make the most of them."
RC Note = This is good news for us Braelon believers, as I am. BUT...what it really means for reality/for touches this season, etc., none of us knows. Maybe Glenn said that to every single backup player?
My sources told me that Breece was pretty clearly the lead RB in OTAs, and then Braelon and Isaiah Davis worked after Breece...then everyone else at RB was way in the distance. I’m not hearing any Braelon separating from Davis clearly talk...nor threatening Breece, per se. It’s still a fluid, ‘too early’ situation from my vantage point. We need the pads on to see if that’s when Glenn really falls in love with Braelon’s power/abilities.
-- A pitch for Jauan Jennings as the #1 WR for SF, from local coverage reporter Grant Cohn...
https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/49ers-jauan-jennings-nfls-most-underrated-wide-receiver
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Dynasty Rookie Draft series 2.0 continues -- going through another run of Five-Round Mock DRDs from each of the 12 draft slots (12 tm lg). Will run from 6/14-6/26. One slot reports out per day.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP. Working on Gadsden and Thornton among others.
*Draft Guide rankings 1.0 have posted. Next update 6/22-24 range due to travel schedule last week.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
=====================
*FASTDRAFT is opening up more, new all-rookie Best Ball type contests and tournaments...and some lower cost ones to have fun with. Put your rookie studies to the test in a contest available in most states. More info on FastDraft and promo codes for initial deposit matches below:
***For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code (FFM) for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Playerprofiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.
Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code
I think FFMers could do quite well in the unique contests they have…especially jumping on things early, ahead of the curve -- like the all-Rookie (2025 class) FF draft/lineup contest and the D-Up/all IDP Best Ball tournament play. They are trying to bring unique game play to the DFS/Best Ball draft world, I think you might enjoy.***
*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...
1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.
2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.
TUE 6/24
(7:20amET)
-- From an NBC report: As Keefer notes in the article, Andy Reid “made a point of it all spring” for the Chiefs to “get back to pushing the ball deep down the field.” Per PFF, since 2021, Patrick Mahomes has ranked 21st or lower in ADOT (min. 300 dropbacks) but finished sixth in ADOT in 2018 when he broke out for 5,097-50-12 on his way to winning his first MVP.
RC Note: It’s easy to say ‘we’re gonna get back to pushing the ball downfield’ but I don’t think you can just flip the switch on this. They act like they just ‘forgot about it’, but now they’re gonna remember. I don’t think it works that way. If they could flip a switch and have their great downfield 2018 passing game again, they would’ve done it by now.
Peak Tyreek Hill is not walking back through that door.
Travis Kelce isn’t anywhere near his peak self.
Matt Nagy is one of the worst O-Cs in the game...following up after an even worse Eric Bieniemy -- if Nagy had some magic, they would’ve been doing it already.
The simple fact is -- Patrick Mahomes had that insane 2018/1st-season-as-starter and he really hasn’t replicated it since. 2022 was pretty hot/nice...but 2023 and 2024 were big drop-offs. Mahomes has had 27 or less TD passes in three of his last 6 seasons and under 290 yards passing per game for a season in four of his last 6 seasons. Mahomes is always good, but his days of great/top of the heap among QB outputs...they’re now more ‘in the past’.
It may be the weak WR group that the GM has assembled is to blame...or perhaps it’s mostly on the awful O-Cs...whatever it is, Mahomes has sunk to just a basic top 10 QB talent now. He’s not better than Burrow. I think Justin Herbert is much more talented. I think Baker is as-good or better of a passer now than Mahomes. Josh Allen, Matt Stafford, Jared Goff, Jayden Daniels...all arguably better passers (talent-wise) than Mahomes now. And here comes the youngsters -- Nix, Penix, McCarthy, Ward to try to challenge the hierarchy...
From a passer/output perspective: Mahomes just isn’t the elite of the elite anymore. He’s obviously really good and has some cool-looking passes from time-to-time but remove Tyreek and with one-time-elite-Kelce fading, and Mahomes is just regular ‘really good’ now. Other young QBs are coming into the league and are good quickly too...there’s more competition on the QB talent list than there was in 2018 (or ever), back when Mahomes crushed all other QBs.
Andy Reid saying/the media thinking KC is gonna flip a switch and be 2018 downfield dynamic now...I’m not sure they can. If they changed O-Cs and re-did the WR group, then maybe. But with this 2025 collection of talent/coaches...it looks like about the same run as 2023 and 2024.
-- News came out (whether you trust it or not) that the Vikings did not pursue Jaire Alexander...nor have they inquired about Jalen Ramsey.
To me, the one current flaw in the Vikings march to an improbable NFC North title (which many of us at FFM are starting to take interest in) -- they need a legit outside CB. It’s the one piece that needs an upgrade.
Right now, the Vikings are slated to start free agent/never really been a full starter Isaiah Rodgers and journeyman Jeff Okudah on the outside...Jaire or Jalen would be such a massive upgrade. I’m not sure why the Vikings are killing it with personnel decisions at all position groups but then fail so miserably at corner, and have for the past few years (outside of getting Byron Murphy)...and with options out there to land, they keep ‘missing’ on their swings at it.
I worry that Minnesota will get off to a slower start than they should have in 2025 because J.J. McCarthy likely needs a few weeks to get settled in, you’d think...AND they have a weakness at corner that teams can attack. If the defense gets its corner before opening day and becomes a shutdown D, then they can carry young J.J. (if needed) through his first 2-3 weeks, and maybe gets that Week 1 at CHI MNF upset to get rolling.
The Vikings were #2 against the run last season...#28 against the pass. They’ve upgraded, or were already good/great, at nearly every position group on the field this offseason...except at CB. They don’t have a title run CB duo...and ace CBs are just out there for the taking.
I will feel great about my Minnesota NFC North, NFC Conference bets if they get a Ramsey or ____ CB to bolster that group. Everything Ross Jacobs wrote about in his FFM article Sunday...it may be one legit CB away from locking in.
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Dynasty Rookie Draft series 2.0 continues -- going through another run of Five-Round Mock DRDs from each of the 12 draft slots (12 tm lg). Will run from 6/14-6/26. One slot reports out per day.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP. Working on Gadsden and Thornton among others.
*Draft Guide rankings 1.0 have posted. Next update 6/22-24 range due to travel schedule last week.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
=====================
**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)
-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).
-- Sign up for the App as if you’re brand new to FFM...it’s a separate ‘thing’/brain from the site. You can use your same exact username/password signing up for the App, to keep it easy for you to remember.
-- Enable the App notifications to get a notification sent to your device when key reports are posted, and/or (especially) in-season when we get inside info/intel from sources before anyone else and it might be news we all need to FF-act on quickly before the world finds out.
-- App tip #1 (FYI): Upper Left (three lines) on App home page, click it, then click profile, then click ‘Push notifications’ – and you’ll see all the alerts we’ve sent in chronological order. App tip #2 (FYI)...if you see things posted but you got no device notification, but you are enabled for notifications…go to your phone’s ‘Settings’>Apps>FFM App>Click the Notifications off then on…like a reboot. I don't know why this works but it does to kick the phone back into business.
*Android App version may be unavailable this week as we have to file new papers with Google...there’s no more hassle in the world than the constant twists of paperwork compliance for Apps on Google or Apple. And the process is...they just freeze or disappear your App until you do the most minute thing they decided was needed that week. But it will be up again shortly, if not showing this day.
6/23 MON
-- FYI, for those in IDPs...
The Saints have announced that they are officially moving to a 3-4 scheme...Carl Granderson and Chase Young are going to be classified as LBs ahead, not DLs. So too will rookie Fadil Diggs be an LB now.
That changes valuations ‘down’ for those switching to LB from DL, in many IDP leagues.
-- Adam Thielen was speaking about his old teammate Jonathan Mingo, and I wanted to show the quote and then give a reaction to it.
But as a preface to the quote: I was, and have continued to be, confused by the Mingo career arc/trade situation. A highly drafted WR (#39 overall) in 2023. He had a decent-ish, run as a starter/rotational guy in his rookie season with BAD Bryce -- no serious issues or concerns with a rookie being decent in a bad passing game.
Then a new regime comes in and turns on Mingo pretty quickly, he’s effectively benched midseason 2024...then traded to Dallas for not much (effectively a 4th-round pick/2025, which ended up to be Trevor Etienne). Dallas has savvy not-GM, but is the GM, Will McClay -- so, you have to take notice when he ‘buys low’.
Mingo doesn’t play much for Dallas in 2024...and Dallas is rolling with Cooper Rush at QB for Mingo’s time there in 2024. Everyone all FF/DRD excited for him in 2023, and a scant two years later and now we all have just given up on him. Thus is the world of living in Rookie Derangement Syndrome in the 2020s.
All of this has made me think, in 2025: Mingo must be some kind of problem behind the scenes. How can we scout him positively in 2023...and see Carolina draft him so highly...and see Dallas pay up a bit for him in trade...and yet nothing good has really happened yet? It has to be that Mingo is some kind of lazy worker or problems off the field/locker room, etc.!
That’s my story/thought process up to this point with Mingo.
Well, then I just saw Adam Thielen had to say about his old teammate, Jonathan Mingo:
"I’d say the last two years, gone through a lot of adversity. A lot of different coaches, different offenses. A lot going on. I will say that I think he’s got a lot of potential. He’s a great kid. Hard worker. Great locker room guy. He’s going to do all the right things. I always believe in versatility. If you can play the different positions and you can do a lot of the different things, not just be a one-trick pony per se, I think it gives you a great opportunity to have success in this league. And I think he’s one of those guys."
So, he’s not an issue behind-the-scene...per Thielen.
So, are we left to ponder: If the physical tools are there, and he’s not an issue at all behind-the-scenes -- is there still hope for Mingo?
What if Mingo comes into his own in year three...as many young WRs tend to do? And I’m not thinking that from an FF standpoint, per se, because Lamb-Pickens-Turpin-Ferguson are all there in his way/he’s never going ahead of Lamb or Pickens...but it made me think -- could Dallas have the best weapons in the passing game of any team in the NFL?
PFF just did their annual report on that and ranked the ‘Boys #15 (PHI was their #1).
I think Dallas has to be WAY better than #15...and I cannot believe the Eagles are #1. I mean, check out this quote from their (PFF) report on Philly being #1: ...Throw in Jahan Dotson as an ideal No. 3 receiver, and you’ve got a group that has a strong case for being the best in the league.
WTF?
So, now I’m spurred to action... I’m gonna do my own ‘best pass game group’ thing too. Only, I’ll go to my tried-and-true tournament style. That series will begin this week and run daily for two weeks.
So, you know I had to ask GROK about what Cowboys management is saying about Mingo. Here’s the full GROK report out:
Specific Quotes on Jonathan Mingo from Cowboys Coaches and Management in 2025
- Jerry Jones (Owner/General Manager):
- Context: Speaking during a press conference following the 2025 NFL Draft (April 26, 2025), Jones addressed the Cowboys’ decision not to draft a wide receiver and expressed confidence in Mingo as a player who could fill the WR2 role, likening his acquisition to a draft pick.
- Quote: “So, we think we’ve done a pretty good job of picking Mingo right there as well.”
- Additional Quote: “We could look at add to the wide receiver room with a veteran. He also mentioned Jonathan Mingo, who was acquired with a fourth round pick last year, as a player they can make a jump in 2025.”
- Analysis: Jones frames Mingo as a strategic acquisition equivalent to a fourth-round draft pick, emphasizing his potential to grow into a significant contributor in 2025, especially alongside CeeDee Lamb and new addition George Pickens.
- Stephen Jones (Executive Vice President):
- Context: On April 26, 2025, during a post-draft discussion, Stephen Jones commented on the WR2 competition, highlighting Mingo’s potential alongside other receivers like Jalen Tolbert and Ryan Flournoy.
- Quote: “Tolbert, Mingo, Flournoy, all of those guys have the potential to be a No. 2. They just haven’t shown that yet. It’s why we’ve had an interest in upgrading that room...If we don’t come away in this draft with a clear No. 2, we’ll look.”
- Analysis: Stephen Jones acknowledges Mingo’s potential to become the WR2 but notes that he, like others, has yet to prove it. This suggests cautious optimism, with the team open to adding a veteran if Mingo and others don’t step up.
- Additional Quote: In a separate comment on April 26, 2025, Stephen Jones elaborated on the receiver depth chart: “I would start with (Jonathan) Mingo and guys like Jalen Tolbert and the whole crew, (Ryan) Flournoy. Those guys have potential to be a No. 2, but they’re not there yet. They haven’t done it. They haven’t hit that.”
- Analysis: This reinforces Mingo’s place in the WR2 conversation but underscores the need for him to demonstrate consistency in 2025.
- Brian Schottenheimer (Head Coach):
- Context: While specific direct quotes from Schottenheimer about Mingo in 2025 are limited in the provided sources, he is referenced indirectly through Mingo’s comments about the coaching staff and offensive system. Mingo noted the familiarity of Schottenheimer’s system due to the coach’s prior stint with the Panthers, which has aided his transition.
- Mingo’s Quote Referencing Schottenheimer: “I’m happy to have a fresh start, ready to go and compete in camp and show these coaches what I can do. I’ve learned the offense and some plays are similar to what I had in Carolina because Schotty used to be at Carolina, (which) made it easier to learn some plays.”
- Analysis: While not a direct quote from Schottenheimer, Mingo’s statement suggests the head coach’s system is facilitating his integration, implying Schottenheimer’s confidence in Mingo’s ability to adapt and contribute.
- Mike McCarthy (Former Head Coach, Referenced in 2025 Context):
- Context: Although Mike McCarthy was replaced by Brian Schottenheimer as head coach for the 2025 season, his earlier comments from November 2024 (post-trade) were referenced in 2025 articles discussing Mingo’s acquisition. These provide insight into the Cowboys’ initial evaluation of Mingo.
- Quote: “Jones said on the radio that the Cowboys were fans of the receiver they were trading for during the draft process, and McCarthy echoed that sentiment and emphasized the importance of trusting your board even after the draft has come and gone.”
- Analysis: McCarthy’s endorsement in 2024 reflects the Cowboys’ high regard for Mingo’s potential, which carries into 2025 expectations under new leadership.
Additional Context from Non-Coaching/Management Sources
To provide a fuller picture of Mingo’s 2025 outlook, here are relevant quotes from teammates and media that align with the Cowboys’ management perspective, though not directly from coaches or management:
- Dak Prescott (Quarterback):
- Quote: “It seemed unfair for Mingo to jump into the offense and find some footing. What this offense potentially has in the passing game with Lamb, Pickens, Mingo and Jalen Tolbert allows the Cowboys to believe they’ll be better in 2025. … The changes we made, not just on offense but defense as well. Bringing in people. Obviously with George, really opens up all those other receivers. Some of the guys we were looking for, who’s going to the two, I think it just gives them a little safety net to go earn and just to go play free and go make a huge jump. Guys like Mingo and Tolbert.”
- Analysis: Prescott highlights Mingo’s challenging midseason transition in 2024 and expresses optimism for 2025, suggesting that the addition of George Pickens reduces pressure on Mingo, allowing him to develop as a WR3 or WR2 candidate.
- Jalen Tolbert (Teammate, Wide Receiver):
- Quote: “Two things honestly, character and work ethic (are what he brings). That’s what we love as wide receivers, something to work off of and something to compete with and grow with. That’s a great person to have in the room, to grow off of. Whether we’re talking about a route, he speaks up and voices what he sees on the field, unselfish guy. It’s been fun having him around.”
- Analysis: Tolbert’s praise underscores Mingo’s positive locker room presence, which aligns with management’s view of him as a high-character player with growth potential.
Summary of Mingo’s 2025 Outlook
- Management’s View: Jerry and Stephen Jones express confidence in Mingo’s potential to be a WR2 or significant contributor, citing his physical tools (6’2”, 220 lbs, 4.46 40-yard dash) and the Cowboys’ high pre-draft grade on him in 2023. They view his 2024 trade as a long-term investment, equivalent to a fourth-round pick, and expect him to “make a jump” in 2025 with a full offseason to learn the offense.
- Coaching Perspective: While direct quotes from Brian Schottenheimer are limited, Mingo’s comments suggest the coach’s system is a good fit, leveraging similarities with Carolina’s offense to ease his transition. McCarthy’s 2024 comments reinforce the organization’s belief in Mingo’s upside.
- Performance Context: Mingo’s 2024 stats with Dallas (5 catches, 46 yards, 16 targets in 8 games) were underwhelming due to midseason integration and playing with backup QB Cooper Rush. However, his strong minicamp performance in June 2025, including standout catches, has fueled optimism.
- Role in 2025: Mingo is competing for the WR3 role behind CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, potentially challenging Jalen Tolbert. His youth (24 years old), two years left on his rookie contract (through 2026), and physical attributes make him a candidate for a breakout season if he capitalizes on the Cowboys’ improved quarterback play with Dak Prescott’s return.
Notes
- Sources: The quotes are drawn from reputable sources like Blogging The Boys, DallasCowboys.com, The Dallas Morning News, and posts on X from credible reporters (e.g., Jon Machota, Todd Archer, Ian Rapoport).
RC Notes: It definitely seems like Mingo has character and work ethic...there are NO issues with him off the field. And it seems like the door is open for him to step up. I’ll be looking at some of his Dallas tape to further consider our projections and valuations on him for 2025 and beyond.
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Dynasty Rookie Draft series 2.0 continues -- going through another run of Five-Round Mock DRDs from each of the 12 draft slots (12 tm lg). Will run from 6/14-6/26. One slot reports out per day.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP. Working on Gadsden and Thornton among others.
*Draft Guide rankings 1.0 have posted. Next update 6/22-24 range due to travel schedule this week.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
=====================
**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)
-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).
-- Sign up for the App as if you’re brand new to FFM...it’s a separate ‘thing’/brain from the site. You can use your same exact username/password signing up for the App, to keep it easy for you to remember.
-- Enable the App notifications to get a notification sent to your device when key reports are posted, and/or (especially) in-season when we get inside info/intel from sources before anyone else and it might be news we all need to FF-act on quickly before the world finds out.
-- App tip #1 (FYI): Upper Left (three lines) on App home page, click it, then click profile, then click ‘Push notifications’ – and you’ll see all the alerts we’ve sent in chronological order. App tip #2 (FYI)...if you see things posted but you got no device notification, but you are enabled for notifications…go to your phone’s ‘Settings’>Apps>FFM App>Click the Notifications off then on…like a reboot. I don't know why this works but it does to kick the phone back into business.
*Android App version may be unavailable this week as we have to file new papers with Google...there’s no more hassle in the world than the constant twists of paperwork compliance for Apps on Google or Apple. And the process is...they just freeze or disappear your App until you do the most minute thing they decided was needed that week. But it will be up again shortly, if not showing this day.
