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2024 Game Report/Fantasy Scouting (Wk11): Lions 52, Jaguars 6

2024 Game Report/Fantasy Scouting (Wk11): Chargers 34, Bengals 27

2024 Game Report/Fantasy Scouting (Wk11): Seahawks 20, 49ers 17

: Ross Jacobs; FFM; 13 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: 49'ers 27, Rams 24 (By Ross Jacobs)

The Rams led this game 17-3 at halftime. They were outscored 24-7 in the second half and it was absolutely no fluke. If anything they were lucky to have the lead they did early on.

LA moved the ball well early on, scored a couple times, then capitalized on a short punt by SF to take that massive lead. The 49'ers barely had the ball to do anything with it.

That all changed in the 2nd half as SF stormed back to tie the game. Then with just a few minutes remaining they were about to take the lead, but a Garoppolo pass into coverage was tipped by Jalen Ramsey who somehow came down with the ball. The Rams would go down the field for a 7 point lead.

The 49'ers next drive failed and they punted it back to LA who only needed to run out the final 2:30 to win. They couldn't and SF got the ball back with about 1:30 left. They went right down the field to tie the game and we were headed to OT.

SF won the toss and took their first possession down the field for a FG. LA ball to tie or win and we got a sequence of plays that encapsulates the problems that I believe will cripple the Rams in the playoffs.

First, OBJ ran the wrong route and tried to catch a pass one handed that was intended for Kupp. He got a second pass thrown at his feet because Stafford was under a ton of pressure and couldn't get it there. And on the final game sealing play, Stafford heaved a ball deep for OBJ but underthrew it and Ambry Thomas came back to the ball for the easy INT while OBJ just stared.

We have said all along that this OBJ experiment was doomed to fail. We said it while the media and fans crowed about how awesome OBJ was for catching a TD pass every game while the Browns struggled to complete a pass.

And I say it again now: OBJ is not a very good receiver anymore. He's ok. He can catch easy slant passes for TD's when they are thrown to him from the 2 yard line. That's all he is really good for and he is an absolute drag on this offense because Stafford is still trying to force him the ball like he's a star. He's not even close.

Here are his stats in 8 games since joining the Rams:

27 catches on 48 targets (56.2%) for 305 yards (11.3 ypc) and 5 TD's

Here are his stats in 6 games with the Browns:

17 catches on 34 targets (50%) for 232 yards (13.6 ypc) and 0 TD's

With the Rams he has averaged 38.1 ypg in one of the most prolific passing attacks in the league. With the Browns he averaged 38.7 ypg.

So tell me...what's the difference? There is none other than he went to an offense that scores a lot and he incidentally caught a couple of short TD's. He hasn't produced any more than he did in Cleveland and that's with Stafford instead of Baker and Kupp to take coverage away from him.

We were promised a superstar performance by OBJ with the Rams. He would take the offense to new heights! The media sold you a steaming bag of crap the same as they always do. OBJ is done, has been done. And if anything he is holding back this offense because they still don't realize it. Every pass sent OBJ's direction is a wasted opportunity.

The Rams could have gotten dozens of other receivers that were available all over the league that could produce better than this, and yet they fell for the sucker's bet on OBJ because their beach bum GM is too busy sipping pina coladas to actually watch tape.

If the Rams don't figure this out soon they are going to get their asses handed to them in the playoffs. They might anyways because they are a soft team and Stafford can't handle the pressure in big moments. Shockingly, he's the exact same guy in LA that he was in Detroit. Go figure.

The Rams drop to the 4th seed with this loss and it might cost them. I know the Cardinals haven't been playing very good lately, but they beat the brakes off of LA early in the season. They are capable of it. The Rams offensive line is dying and I bet they don't hold up well under heavy pressure from Chandler Jones and company. And you know what Stafford does when under pressure....

I've spilled a lot of ink on the Rams so far, but let's talk about the 49'ers. They've won 8 of their last 11 games including beating the Rams twice. But looking back over those games...not that impressive. They did beat the Bengals but that's the only other good win. All the rest are against the dregs of the NFL.

I'm not saying the 49'ers are a bad team. But they are a bit fraudulent and should have their hands full with the Cowboys (who also have beaten up a weak schedule but done it far more impressively). Their front seven really gave the Rams fits here, and they'll need a repeat performance if they want to beat Dallas.

Fantasy Notes

--Deebo Samuel obviously had a monster year, but can we expect a repeat performance next year? I think I'm going to pass next year for a few reasons.

First, RC and I both recommended selling him off hot after his blazing start. He was racking up 100 yard games and multiple TD's left and right, but we both felt like they were somewhat fluky performances. The long TD's were happening because a DB fell down or crashed into each other. Random stuff.

But then he got moved to RB and the TD's kept flowing. He scored 14 total TD's this year, 8 of them on the ground. It was an astonishing and impressive performance, but do we really think he's going to match that again next year?

What if Trey Lance takes over? How does that affect him?

I'm not drawing any hard conclusions right now because there's still a lot up in the air, but for the price I'll probably be looking at other WR's in his range.

--Now I expect there will be a lot of people fading Cooper Kupp next year for various reasons, and while some of those things are good arguments, I have no problem taking him again, especially because I doubt he'll even be the first receiver drafted.

Normally the top scorer one season automatically becomes the top drafted guy the next, but in this case I wouldn't be surprised if Kupp was the #2-3-4 WR instead.

I doubt he matches the raw stats from this year but only because it takes so much going right to set records like this. Will he have perfect conditions again? He might. We know he's talented enough to do it once. He's also Stafford's bff and is going to get a million targets.

The only real question is: can he match the TD mark again? We saw Davante Adams go from 17 last year to 11 this year. It doesn't sound like much, but it makes the difference between being a top 5 guy and being THE guy. Unfortunately, there's no way to know unless you have reason to believe the offense will score far fewer TD's as a whole.

So the short answer is: yes, I'll be drafting Kupp a lot next year especially if I get a discount on him. All the conditions are in place for a repeat performance. Don't go chasing the shiny new thing in favor of what is working. Remember our lessons on Derrick Henry this year.

--Jauan Jennings had himself a monster game on the stat sheet. It was a complete random outburst. He's an ok receiver, but one TD was a trick pass from Deebo and the other he got lost in coverage with the defense chasing Aiyuk. He was barely even targeted until the last 5 minutes of the game. Nothing to see here.

--Likewise, you can forget about any options behind Kupp and OBJ with the Rams. Van Jefferson is back to being a decoy/occasional deep ball guy since the team thinks OBJ is their Woods replacement. And Ben Skowronek is just too unathletic to even get open. Man, if only they hadn't wasted their 2nd round pick on a diminutive receiver that can't even get on the field....

--Cam Akers is back somehow and logged a few snaps here although he was clearly still behind Michel in the running game. I bet that changes soon. Michel looks as stiff as ever, and McVay has to get his love-child back on the field.

He looked a little tentative which isn't surprising since he hasn't played football in months. But other than that he was moving ok. I've never been that impressed with his athletic ability but he should be fine once they start jamming him carries. It might even be this week against the Cardinals if things get dicey, but I bet they try to get him one more semi-light game before going to him full-time. Best guess is split between him and Michel but with Michel as a slight lead, say 70-30 or 60-40.

--I've written more words this year on Trey Lance than any other player by far, and to date we still haven't seen much with him. I've grown quite nervous about how he's developing but it's still only year 1.

However, I'm beginning to have doubts about next year as well, especially if the 49'ers make a deep playoff run. I didn't believe it would happen, but Shanahan is digging his heels in and is not going to play Lance until he absolutely has to. He has no problem letting Trey ride the bench for another year or two. I'm absolutely certain.

We're going to have to see how this develops, but I am officially nervous. Trey will get his shot eventually, no doubt about it, but could it be 2023 before he does? Maybe. I think it's on the table now.

IDP Notes

--I've seen a lot written this week about what a great signing Arden Key has been because he has 6.5 sacks on the year. I've covered the 49'ers several times this year and he's never stood out to me, so I watched him extra close here and.....nothing. I don't see it. He's just another rotational guy on a deep defensive line.

His “half sack” here was only credited to him because he reached out and touched the QB as another guy wrapped him up. He was literally the least impressive D-lineman I saw for SF. Hard pass from me.

Snap Counts of Interest

52 = Michel

13 = Akers

64 = Kupp

51 = OBJ

45 = Jefferson

17 = Skowronek

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 13 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Browns 21, Bengals 16

The Browns sat some starters, while others played part of the game…and they went with Case Keenum at QB (as they should). They were playing like a team ready to get to their vacations.

The big question was – what would the Bengals do in this game with their starters? Most playoff teams in a position to sit starters Week 18, didn’t. Whether that was teams long since out of the race or even teams only playing for a minor seed change ran the risk of putting their guys out there in harm’s way and (for the playoff bound teams) not giving them a week of extra healing. I really applaud the Bengals for not getting caught up in that and them just sitting key players…in fact, they sat almost every starter.

I’m becoming a bigger and bigger Bengals fan by the day. I think they are the best team in the AFC playoffs, but it’s probably not their time yet due to a lack of experience even being in the playoffs. They should be the AFC favorites in 2022, even if they get bounced from the playoffs 1st-round this year. I can already tell you, my Super Bowl pick for the 2022 season is the Bengals…and we’ll see if free agency and/or the draft changes that thinking.

This game was not taken seriously by either team, but we did get a lot of fresh RBs getting extra work, especially for the Bengals. I was hoping Chris Evans would get more work and he did.

I’ve got five player notes below from this game, four of them concerning RBs.

One quick 2021 season ending team/coaching note – I should’ve known better on the Browns. I didn’t love them as much as everyone else did going into this season, but I still gave them respect…too much respect. I wasn’t a big Kevin Stefanski fan when he got the job, but then they had a sweet 2020 season and I thought maybe I was wrong…but 2021 has me back to ‘same old Browns’ thinking. With the Browns and Ravens and Steelers all fading away, it’s even more extra juice for the Bengals to dominate in 2022.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- With this rewatch, I mostly wanted to see Chris Evans (7-35-0, 4-24-1/5) at work. He’s been hurt/out for a while as Mixon-Perine ran the show. Week 18 was an excellent time to let Evans get work. And again, I point out, this is what Week 18 is supposed to be for…for teams who have little/nothing to play for. Not ‘finishing strong’ B.S., which is the single most ridiculous thing in a league inundated with ridiculous things. You should be letting younger players who haven’t played as much during the season get extended work, to evaluate them when you can AND keep your stars out of games with nothing to play for to keep them safe.

By contrast, the first example off the top of my head…the Atlanta Falcons. Nothing to play for Week 18. Yet, Matt Ryan plays the entire game…the young backup QBs don’t see one snap. #3 RB Qadree Ollison gets ONE CARRY…and he takes it for a 19-yard TD run…and never sees another carry after. I mean, you have to have a mental deficiency as a coach to play a Week 18 that way – but it’s Arthur Smith, the mental deficiency has been on display all season, as well as the lack of any business or common sense being present. He just has a giant silver spoon sticking out of his ass from the opportunity he’s afforded (from birth to college to the NFL) by being a product of a wealthy family.

So, you might think I’m over-applauding something so nonsensical like ‘sitting starters’ and ‘playing backups’ – but that’s because you have a functioning brain. It’s so simple to us…but it’s not obvious to them. The NFL coaching staffs, and management live in a different world (and, thus, they all get fired every 2-3 years for their failures). NFL organizations want to ‘finish strong’ over managing assets.

Darrell Bevell, who has no chance of ever getting hired as an NFL head coach, he rolls out Trevor Lawrence (the supposed franchise) in Week 18 in hopes of getting a win and impressing management to get the Jacksonville job (which I can't blame him, what else does he got?)…so he puts players at risk in a meaningless game and then, even worse, he wins the game and almost costs his franchise the #1 pick – but what does Bevell care? He won’t be there next year or his only chance, to him, is if he wins this game), so everything is currently disposable to him. So, if Lawrence tore his ACL, Bevell doesn’t really care. Why wouldn’t the GM or management step in ahead of that? Why…because they want to ‘finish strong’, that’s why.

Where was I? Oh, Chris Evans looks really really good. I didn’t see much in him studying his Michigan tape pre-Draft 2021, and he had the career output to warrant that skepticism of him in college…but then he had a great Pro Day to at least open the door back up with me from an analytics/metrics scouting standpoint (hey, maybe Michigan was the problem…not Evans?)…and then he looked really good in the 2021 preseason…and then looked good in his 2021 regular season spots of work. I’m very impressed with what I see from Chris Evans. He is looking legit…looking like a guy who if Joe Mixon got hurt, Evans would step in and about put up the same kind of output. Evans kinda even looks and moves and plays like a slightly smaller Mixon.

When will Evans get a real chance to work in the NFL…who knows? Mixon is obviously not going anywhere soon…but if an RB injury arises…but top 5-10 pick RBs never get hurt in Fantasy Football, so who am I kidding?

-- But the best back, currently, in this game was D’Ernest Johnson (25-123-1, 1-10-0/1). He is so ready to be a lead back somewhere, but he will likely never get that chance on purpose. His instincts running the ball…his toughness, breaking tackles…in this game, excellent. He’s ready. But he’s an undrafted free agent, so he doesn’t get chances like the major conference duds who were drafted will get in the NFL.

Five things about D’Ernest come to mind here…

‍

1) While many are patting me on the back for getting onto Rashaad Penny and D’Onta Foreman ahead of crowd this FF season, a.k.a. the two main RBs who helped take people to FF titles in 2021, there are some who keep saying/thinking that they only won their FF titles because of luck (in the form of Penny and/or Foreman). Some people are looking back on the season trying to figure out how they won their division/got a bye/won a title when their redraft early pick group got hurt/blew up (bad)…and they see Penny and Foreman as unplanned luck.

None of these ‘luck’ moves are luck. They were on purpose. Many of them came from years of watching preseason NFL and college scouting tape and not forgetting who they were, keeping tabs on them after everyone wrote them off…all the hours and hours and days and months of watching, noting, studying…you don’t know when or what player in what week it will pay-off on.

No greater example than D’Ernest Johnson. How many of you used him that Thursday night game midseason where he broke out with 100+ yard rushing and scored 20+ PPR points? I promoted/pushed him as a top 13-18 RB for the week. I knew from having watched him play the prior couple preseasons and reporting out/bellyaching that he deserved more of a chance and that some other team should grab him while he was on the Browns practice squad, as he was free to take by any NFL team years ago. I knew D’Ernest from scouting. I pushed D’Ernest that week he was getting a clear start without Chubb-Hunt. Everyone said, “Are you sure about this?” Many FF twitter analysts made fun of D’Ernest as a possible ‘start’ that week and/or they told people not to consider him as a start.

Many of your runs to a #1 seed/title this season were not just ‘lucky’ grabs of Penny and Foreman before everyone else, but you already forgot we used D’Ernest at just the right time ahead of everyone else too. It’s one thing to grab/roster the RB forced to play because all the ‘real’ RBs got hurt, so you take a chance on adding them…it’s another to go get them with a passion and then USE them at the right time.

Such a brilliant scouting call of the moment…and then I immediately said to turn on him/trade him after (unless you owned Chubb) because I also know NFL teams don’t give these guys opportunities when the ‘real’ starters are back, and now that all the pundits had ‘discovered’ D’Ernest AFTER his big game on cable television they were hot to trot on their new discovery…one you already had and used in their face ahead of them. And then trading him (if you could) during his media heat moment also ended up being the right call. We played it like a fiddle, from knowing the D’Ernest scouting/capabilities going in to knowing what the media reactions meant we should do after – and you may have already forgotten about it.

And those who dismissed the pickup/didn’t get to use the D’Ernest call that one week…you don’t know what I’m talking about because you didn’t feel it firsthand, so it’s not even a credit in my scouting account. So, I sound like an ass for beating my own chest over it – but these things matter. All the scouring of tape and data…when it pays off for such a time as this, it’s my favorite moment(s) of the season. Those that did use him…I don’t want us to forget that moment mattered in the tapestry that was the construct of a FF title this season.

People who didn’t win a title, and some who did, are doing an autopsy of the season and are fixated on all the things that went wrong that if only they drafted ____ in round one, and ____ in round two, etc., and making proclamations on letdown players like ‘I’ll never draft ____ again’. What you won’t likely remember in your 2021 season autopsy are all the little opportunities you had…little moves you made correctly, with urgency, to help fix the problems from a key injury or player disappointment, etc. You’ll ignore them or dismiss them as luck – which is a slap in the face to both of us. Finding opportunity isn’t contained to just the preseason draft. You draft 15-20+ players before the season starts…you then make 2-3-4x that in player transactions throughout the actual season. In-season adjustments and scouting matter as much/more than the preseason (re)draft.

Your support allows me to find and study and consider the D’Ernest Johnson’s and D’Onta Foreman’s way ahead of your competition. It’s easy to pick/debate between Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson…anyone can make a case for or against all the top names. The person who knows the least in your league can print off a free draft ranking off a website and land ‘names’, and then those names might go on to do great that season and don’t get hurt or COVID…while you studied for a billion hours and took Christian McCaffrey or J.K. Dobbins or Saquon Barkley or Calvin Ridley, etc. and it wasn’t so hot. But what those ‘free advice off the internet’ FF players don’t know/aren't reading about to consider is D’Ernest Johnson’s history and capabilities…until it’s too late, you already got them. You adjusted to fix mistakes, replace injuries, build depth…while everyone else usually goes as far as their original roster will take them.

Enjoy the Penny-Foreman run of 2021…but don’t forget about D’Ernest. These guys symbolize all that we’re about. All the work and study we put in. You had to consider the info and act upon it…that’s you job, you did that…it’s not ‘luck’. Gold miners process tons of square footage of dirt just to find little gold flecks. Same with football scouting. You have to process a lot of empty/useless dirt to find the little payoffs. I’m just the guy for the job. It’s your land…your gold mine…let me help you in the dirty work of digging up the earth looking for that treasure.

2) D’Ernest Johnson is the poster child for scouting analytics being worthless. Anyone who says that the Pro Day and Combine data is the best way to scout…would never find or know or believe in D’Ernest. I know, my computer scouting models didn’t like him at all coming out of college.

Is it better to scout via analytics/metrics or tape studying?

‘Neither’ is the answer. Both together is the answer…and you need time served doing both to understand how they are different and how they do work together. Random fan running a plot chart on air yards of WRs correlated to Fantasy performance for some website is nice…but it’s a small cog of a giant machine that needs experienced interpretation.

Ten+ years of learning…and learning something new every year within an ever changing NFL landscape – you can’t run a basic datapoint and go ‘see!’ on players/prospects. Sometimes it is that easy, but most times it is not. I knew D’Ernest because my computer data said he sucked as a NFL Draft prospect, but my trained/experienced eyes that watched EVERY preseason game saw something different to make me go back and reconsider.

Years of tilling soil paid off for just one week in 2021…and that may have been the difference of a midseason win or a loss, and eventually maybe the difference of a BYE or not a BYE, etc.

3) D’Ernest Johnson is a restricted free agent now, which means the Browns have to pay him really well to keep him another year…but NFL teams can make him offers as well, which if he is signed by another team the receiving team might have to cough up a draft pick in exchange. Depends upon how much of a tender Cleveland puts on him.

Cleveland will probably be forced to either put a ‘right of first refusal’ tender on him, which gives Cleveland the chance to match (and thus keep the player) any offer – but if they don’t match it, they lose the player with no compensation.

Cleveland could put a 2nd-round tender on DJ, and that comes with a big raise (for an RB) and if someone else signs him the Browns would get a 2nd-round pick. No team is paying D’Ernest AND giving up a 2nd-round pick to do it. Thus, the Browns just retained a running back for one more year at a very high cost…and they don’t need more RBs on their roster/payroll.

Johnson should refuse any contract extension offer from Cleveland outside of that because they will try to #3 RB lowball him. He should just wait it out, and he’ll probably get expensively (for an RB) buried on the Browns in some way for 2022…then goes to a true free agency in 2023. Guys like him usually take the bigger bump money now vs. betting on themselves in a year. A lot can happen in a year.

4) The situation might be such that the Browns pay Johnson decently, and then trade Kareem Hunt instead. Thus, D’Ernest is the new Hunt for the Browns working with Chubb.

One of D’Ernest or Hunt needs to go…and probably will. The Browns would have too much payroll into their backfield if they retain D’Ernest…like $15M+ worth of RB payroll. The Patriots will have less than $3M in their backfield and they had the better running game in 2021.

5) The final note…yes, Nick Chubb, who was not 100%, started for the Browns in this meaningless game and he played about 25% of it. Why? I have no idea, except to reiterate how stupid NFL head coaches are.

-- The Browns could have gotten Demetric Felton (1-6-0, 2-18-1/2) more touches out of the backfield in a game like this, but why let promising young players have more time when you can push banged up, expensive franchise backs in meaningless games instead?

I wanna say Felton will be the #3 back if needed in 2022, if/when one of Hunt or D’Ernest is gone…but that would be using logic. Felton looked like a real playmaker right off the bat for the Browns in 2021, and then he was barely used the rest of the season. Felton’s best game was Week 2 where he played 3 snaps, caught 2 passes, one of them a short pass where he ran through several defenders to score a long TD. That moment warranted no extra touches after that and no extra time in Week 18. Felton played 5 snaps this game…and scored another TD. Unbelievable.

Felton can play.

Kevin Stefanski is another typical ‘no business sense’ coach, classically/institutionally trained within the NFL system, with an Ivy League degree. He’s just like all the other coaches in the NFL. 2020 season was a blip.

-- Trayveon Williams (9-29-0, 1-4-0/2) got extra work here…the #4 RB getting way more work than Felton. I thought Williams had some hopes when I scouted him out of Texas A&M years ago, but he’s only clung on to a fringe roster spot for years with rare opportunity at touches. He missed his window. He’s not as good as Evans or D’Ernest or Felton (comparing the RBs in this game).

-- I watched every play Browns LB Clay Johnston (11 tackles) worked in this game, because I thought Johnston might have some NFL/IDP hope as a solid tackling, decent college prospect a couple years ago…but he is bouncing around the league every year.

I watched all his plays here, and I’ve watched him some in-season and his preseasons the past two years – he just doesn’t have ‘it’. I’m not watching anymore until he makes me somehow.

Snap Counts of Interest:

47 = D’Ernest

30 = Chris Evans

24 = Trayveon Williams

16 = Chubb

06 = Andy Janovich

05 = Felton

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season sign ups have begun**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

: Ross Jacobs; FFM; 12 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Chiefs 28, Broncos 24 (By Ross Jacobs)

Well this game can't make you feel good if you're a Chiefs fan. I know the Broncos aren't a bad team, but they gave Kansas City all they could handle here.

The Chiefs scored on their first drive and it looked like another beatdown coming, but Denver locked in and frustrated them for the next 3 quarters. The Broncos took the lead in the 2nd quarter and wouldn't relinquish it until the 4th.

They held a 21-20 lead and were about to cash in on another score but Melvin Gordon was hit in the backfield, fumbled, and the Chiefs picked it up for an 86 yard TD. Without that singular play there's a good chance the Broncos pull the upset.

Instead, the Chiefs hang on for the 2nd seed in the AFC but do not look like a dominant team. They've lost to most of the better teams they've faced this year. Their best two wins were over the Packers without Rodgers and the Cowboys without Tyron Smith.

I think RC is right that they are a pretender team. They aren't bad by any means, definitely solid and hard to beat because of Mahomes, but this isn't the unstoppable aerial attack we're used to. It's just an above average group and they rely on their defense to get a couple turnovers to help out.

Of course they get the dream first round matchup against the Steelers who they should murder. After that things get dicier and they'll have to face either the Patriots, Raiders, or Bengals in the next round. I'm not sure they will beat any of those teams. All three are physically tougher teams with good ground games and none of them are afraid of the Chiefs.

I'm having a hard time seeing the Chiefs win the AFC. The Titans are better if Derrick Henry is back. The Bengals are better. The Bills are even or slightly better. And even the Pats and Raiders have what it takes to beat them. It just looks like bad matchups for the Chiefs across the board. This might be an early exit for them and then the questions are going to start about them falling off....and once the questioning starts everything gets put under a microscope and suddenly the flaws look a lot bigger and more real.

We could be looking at the time when the Chiefs fall back into the back of good-but-not-great teams with an elite QB trying to carry them to the playoffs every year, which is the fate of almost all teams because ultimately the coach doesn't matter, the defense doesn't really matter, the offensive line matters a little, but the QB carries the day. Every couple years these teams luck into a good line and an ok enough defense and they win 11-12 games, maybe make a Super Bowl or two, and then the luck fades and everything goes back to normal.

Fantasy Notes

--Tyreek Hill hurt his heel during pregame warmups and only played 14 snaps before he was pulled. It's definitely an issue heading into the playoffs as this type of injury can linger and significantly impair a WR's ability to play.

They likely won't need him against the Steelers so I wouldn't be shocked if he sat a week to try to heal (sorry) it properly, but coaches are the biggest idiots in the world so very likely he'll be out there playing and very well could aggravate the injury. If Hill gets knocked out because of this there's no way the Chiefs are making the Super Bowl.

--In Hill's stead, Mecole Hardman (8-103-0/11) seemingly stepped up in a big way. Is he finally, finally breaking out? Yes and no. Let me explain.

So almost all his catches and yards came within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. It was nearly all screen passes. 1) That's smart and something Hill never did until this year either. Get the fast guy with iffy hands the ball quickly and let him run. 2) He was just filling in for Tyreek, so if Hill is playing I wouldn't expect this to repeat unless the Chiefs change the offense and start sending Tyreek deep again which is a distinct possibility.

We won't know the answer to this until both guys play together, but I'm starting to think that if Tyreek is banged up they may send him deep as a decoy and let Hardman be the guy to work underneath. Byron Pringle will become the mid-range 1st down receiver. In this scenario Hardman would become a poor man's Jaylen Waddle. It's honestly a good role for him and if I'm right he should be a nice surprise ppr play in the playoffs.

--If you have games this week, definitely be careful trying to start Darrel Williams. This has turned into a full-blown committee between Williams, Gore, and McKinnon.

McKinnon actually looks the best which should surprise no one with FFM as we all know he's an incredible athlete. He had a couple plays here where he made half the Broncos defense miss. Look for him to possibly grab a slightly bigger role throughout the playoffs, especially as a receiver near the goal line.

--I've been claiming for 2 years now that I see something with Drew Lock and every week now I keep thinking that he is Josh Allen-lite (very lite) and I'm sticking by it. I don't mean that he's a hidden gem at QB or that he's even going to be a good starter eventually. What I'm saying is he's not nearly as bad as people are making him out to be. I see flashes of some real ability hiding here, but this shit offense isn't doing him any favors.

He's not getting any blocking and is throwing every pass under duress yet still manages to hit some spectacular plays. He does occasionally throw an inaccurate ball or make a poor decision, but without a doubt he has cut way down on those since his rookie year.

I want to see what he can do with better circumstances. I don't know that he's going to get that chance. Fangio never seemed to like him, the new GM Paton doesn't seem to like him, and very likely whatever new coach they bring in isn't going to like him. Things just aren't set up well for Lock to get another shot here. He's got one year left on his rookie contract, so I imagine he'll be “in a competition” with whatever new rookie or veteran they bring in this off-season, but we all know it won't be a real competition.

My guess is he rides the bench one more year and then leaves and hopes for a chance behind an established starter elsewhere. He probably gets the Trubisky treatment and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he actually replaced Trubisky as the backup in Buffalo behind Allen. Personally I'm hoping he can be the next Tannehill. I really do believe he has that kind of ability. It's just a question of landing spot and opportunity now though.

--I love the talent of Fant and Sutton, but unless something changes they have no hope in Denver next year. So much depends on who the QB is next year. If Lock gets a chance with a better O-Line I think things could be better. If it's Teddy again somehow you can forget it.

I do think Fant has more of a chance than Sutton though because for whatever reason this team seems to think that Jeudy is the #1 receiver and not Sutton. It makes zero sense but it's true. The one good thing with this situation though is that both of these guys are essentially free in dynasty. Nobody wants them for obvious reasons. But all it would take is Rodgers or Watson landing here to skyrocket their values, so for that reason alone I like them both as penny-stock deep stashes. The talent is there. It just needs the right situation to unlock it.

IDP Notes

--Every single time that Nick Bolton plays a significant amount of snaps he racks up tackle counts like nobody's business. The guy is a run game machine. Think of what Denzel Perryman did this year for LV. That's Bolton.

The trouble is, Bolton sucks in pass coverage and that is becoming more and more a part of the modern game every year. His snap counts decreased all year because of it except for the one spike game against the Chargers a few weeks ago. So what to do with him?

I think you stash him and hope he figures out the coverage stuff more for next year. He was a rookie this year and a high draft pick at that. The team wants him to become a full-time player. They are invested in that and believe in him. Plus the upside is too high. If he becomes an every down starter he could easily pace the league in tackles. If he doesn't then at least you took your shot on a guy with crazy potential.

--RC's guy Caden Sterns (9 tackles) finally played a full game as a starter and responded nicely. I honestly wasn't very impressed, but it's just one game. He clearly has the movement skills you want to see, but he looked a little timid to me, like he wasn't exactly sure what he was supposed to be doing.

I have a feeling Sterns might take a couple years to “get it” but then we're going to look around in 2025 and he's one of the better safeties in the league. Some guys don't splash immediately and we forget about them. That's the vibe I'm getting here. Sterns seems like the kind of guy that's always going to be underrated and never really get the recognition he should, like a De'Vondre Campbell.

--The young guy that did really impressive me here was Denver's Michael Ojemudia (11 tackles, 2 pd). Now you only get that many tackles at corner if you're allowing catches, but most everything caught against him was a screen pass. In coverage he was fantastic and that was with Mahomes coming after him.

He's got good size and moves around smoothly but doesn't look like a high-end athlete. Mayock would say he's not “twitchy.” He does a pretty good job in coverage though and is never beaten badly. Definitely looks like he could be a solid starting corner.

Snap Counts of Interest

65 = Hardman

55 = Pringle

41 = Robinson

31 = Williams

24 = Gore

23 = McKinnon

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 11 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Bucs 41, Panthers 17

It was a sluggish start for the heavily favored Buccaneers…down 7-0 early. Down 7-3 most of the 1st-half until they scored a TD with 0:15 left before halftime to take a 10-7 lead…a lead they would not relinquish as the Bucs piled on 31 points in the 2nd-half, blowing away the hapless Panthers.

Carolina enters the offseason under fire. The fans have turned on Matt Rhule (pretty much every coach past year one who didn’t go to the playoffs is ‘under fire’ or ‘on the hot seat’…i.e. ‘hated by the fans’…or they were fired already). Rhule is coming back for year three because of sunk costs and ‘what else is there?’ is my new rule on coaching changes. Two years ago, there was a bidding war for Matt Rhule, now Carolina fans are chanting for him to be fired at local sporting events. Who is more in the wrong…management or the fans? Don’t the fans clamoring for this two years ago need to shut up about it now?

The only person who wants Matt Rhule to be fired more than ‘fans’ is Matt Rhule himself. Who wants to put up with this? Rhule is taking the money, waiting to be fired so he can collect on the remainder of his huge, guaranteed contract, so he can then sign a huge deal to return to the college program of his choosing, where he will be welcomed with open/fawning arms…and thus escaping the never-satisfied NFL. The fans are creating this head coaching churn NFL-wide, they always have. The media is right there with them. The joke is on the system – guys are taking these head coaching deals to get a payday that sets the up nicely for the rest of their lives, then when they get fired in a few years and collect up their money due upon firing -- they can then run away with that money and return to their real passion…be it college coach or NFL assistant.

You know how only nutjobs want to be politicians? Who wants that kind of grief and exposure? People with some kind of mental desire or emotional need to satisfy (power/control) or spotlight they demand (or all of the above)…it’s kinda the same thing with NFL head coaches. You’re telling me Trump or Biden is our best and brightest, most capable people to run a country in the last decade? I’m watching Matt Rhule work in the pros, and listening to his press conferences, and I listened to/watched him coaching at the Senior Bowl last year – and the more I’m exposed to him, the less impressed I am. But it seemed like from his college track record this was a real hopeful? Two years ago, he was considered by everyone as one of the ‘best and brightest’ in the industry. Now look at him. Fans are never happy with their coach, for long…just like Fantasy owners look at their team and hate it when it isn’t winning in a particular week…or just think it ‘looks bad’ in the Dynasty offseason, and EVERYONE ELSE has SUCH a better roster. We love self-loathing in Fantasy.

I’ve turned full heel on these new coaching candidates or current ones ‘who need to go’ – I’m just going to assume they’re all terrible options, whether retaining what you got or trying to find a replacement…and make them prove to me otherwise. Even early Belichick…they tried, and did, run him out of Cleveland. I’m sure there was a contingent furious when he was first hired in New England. If Belichick quit the Patriots and took a job as head man of Jacksonville tomorrow…Jags fans would complain that they got Belichick past his prime. No one is satisfied in the NFL. Even when a team achieves something in a given season, there’s 4-8 months of ‘what they must do to stave off a collapse’ offseason articles and fan posts in chats online.

Where was I? Oh, Matt Rhule is staying…for one more year because he chose Sam Darnold, and when he gets fired the fans will be thrilled with the scalp they took…but Rhule will be even happier to depart the fans/NFL with a suitcase full of cash – the joke is on the fans, not Rhule. God bless Rhule’s 2023 replacement…he’ll go through the same pattern, likely, with the fans/media – all wonderment and hope going into year one and then shaky hope/skepticism year two and then calling for his head in year three.

The Panthers have had three winning seasons in the past 12 seasons. The David Tepper era has produced three five-win seasons in a row, a (15-34) record in his first three seasons (30.6%). Remember what a smart high-level investment guy Tepper was and how that was going to allow him to tear up the NFL? Not so far.

Tampa Bay has been even more pathetic than the Panthers the past decade+, but then they acquired Tom Brady last year and thus Bruce Arians is suddenly a genius. See how that works? The #1 trait I want to see in a head coach candidate – what QB does he have/is he getting? That’s all that matters. You pay a lot to choose Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz…you suffer the consequences.

The Bucs are the #2 seed in the NFC, and the only thing that stands in their way of a repeat title is ‘How cold will it be in Green Bay in two weeks’?

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- My main thrust for re-watching this game was to scout Ke’Shawn Vaughn (10-29-1, 2-12-0/2). Due to all the RB injuries for TB, he was in line for more work/snaps than he has had in 2021, or possibly in his two-year career.

So, how did he look?

Fine.

Nothing special.

He has the speed/agility of a solid NFL RB. He doesn’t appear to have the greatest instincts with the ball and is too easily tackled to my eye, but if forced some heavy work he’ll do OK. Bruce Arians has been so tentative with him it makes me worry he’s got an uphill battle to ever really FF-mattering, on purpose. Fournette and RoJo could all leave via free agency in 2022, leaving Vaughn in a great spot…but I’m pretty sure if that happened, they’d sign a veteran/star RB at a discount, who would love to work with Tom Brady…and/or draft a new future RB. Vaughn just does not seem to be it for Arians so far, but the door is not closed on it either.

-- This was a big opportunity for Cyril Grayson (0-0-0/0) to have a follow up to his past two weeks of ‘breakout’…with AB fully gone, the door was wide open for Grayson to seize the moment, seize the role from all comers on the roster (Perriman, Miller, etc.).

Grayson started and grabbed his hamstring 6 snaps in, and ‘poof’ he blew his big opportunity. He’s allowing the other guys to jump into his spot, and thus making it tougher for Grayson to jump back in when he’s ready. A huge blow to Grayson’s career. It may have been his one and only chance…and he let it slip away via injury.

Breshad Perriman (5-44-0/6) got more work with Grayson out and will likely steal the spot from Grayson going forward.

Jaelon Darden (0-0-0/1) continues to show nothing to try and jump into the mix. He still has hope/talent for the future, but sad that he isn’t seizing a golden opportunity right now.

-- Here’s why Carolina will fail in 2022, and the way they fail will damage the team for another year or two…

Carolina is likely to run with Sam Darnold (29-452 for 219 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) at QB again, because he’s the only one who talks to Matt Rhule with respect and pretends he is listening to Rhule’s rah-rah nonsense. Rhule spent millions on Darnold to have a ‘friend’ in the building. Darnold will be a ruination of the Panthers just like he was for the Jets.

Carolina will likely pursue Deshaun Watson, but if they don’t get him…they’ll stick with Darnold. Rhule will see Darnold as his only hope to get through in 2022…and it’s a bad strategy, one that should/will hang Rhule in 2023. He did it to himself. Darnold was his idea. Rhule is destroying his career through bad personnel moves…whether it’s him or the GM as the main thrust of them.

So, Darnold will be back and they’ll give big money to D.J. Moore (7-87-0/10) to keep continuity and they’ll retain Robby Anderson (7-50-1/9) for the same reason and neither will be all that great for FF because they’ll have the Darnold effect on them.

Why would Deshaun Watson (who has full control over his trade destination) choose to go to Carolina with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson at WR. Tommy Tremble at TE. A terrible O-Line. And a coach no one likes/respects who is likely on his way out after next year?

Rhule will keep all his pieces from 2021 in place, by and large, and hope to hire a magical O-C that will ‘fix it all’. Head coaches, offensive coordinators…they’re only as good as the QB they possess, and therefore everyone in Carolina is doomed.

-- But what about Christian McCaffrey? McCaffrey has played 10 games total the past two years and the only people really excited about CMC are Carolina homer fans and PPR Fantasy Football players. Free agent QBs aren’t clamoring to pair up with a great checkdown option/working for an RB-based offense.

Will Carolina trade McCaffrey? No way. Rhule can’t afford the fanbase blowback, and McCaffrey is established and Rhule needs established/ready-to-go save him players in 2022. If anything, McCaffrey is the perfect Rhule scapegoat if CMC gets hurt again.

They should trade McCaffrey, but they would pay a ton to dump…for what? What are they getting from another team in exchange for CMC/a running back who barely stays healthy and costs a ton of money? They’re stuck with CMC for one more year. They can clear him out in 2023…with Rhule.

In 2022, for the first time since 2019, McCaffrey will not be the obvious/consensus #1 overall pick in PPR leagues.

-- Once again, for another week, a Tampa Bay pass rush IDP thing happened that is telling (to me)…

With all the Tampa pass rushers out injured, two guys have had the opportunity to step up and get noticed. Here are these two guys and their Week’s 17-18 tallies as full fill-in starters…

8 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 4 TFLs, 1 PD = Anthony Nelson, 4th-round pick 2019

7 tackles, 0.0 sacks, 0 TFLs, 2 PDs = Joe Tryon, 1st-round pick 2021

Don’t tell me, “Well, Tryon is a rookie!” Have you seen Jaelen Phillips for Miami? It’s not that Tryon is dead, but this was a great spot against two horrible teams/O-Lines and Tryon couldn’t even register a QB hit. He’s not doomed because of it, but it doesn’t give you warm and fuzzy feeling either.

Snap Counts of Interest:

52 = Tyler J

43 = MK Evans

37 = Perriman

14 = S Miller

08 = J Darden

27 = Vaughn

23 = L Bell

09 = Barner

42 = Tremble

37 = I Thomas

11 = Stv Sullivan

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season early-signups start January 6th, 2022, NoonET**

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 11 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Seahawks 38, Cardinals 30

In their last six games, to finish the 2021 regular season, the Seattle Seahawks went (4-2)…and really should’ve been (5-1).

The Cardinals went (2-4), lucky not to have gone (1-5).

As I write this report, the Seattle Seahawks are CLEARLY the better NFL team than Arizona…but Arizona is going to the playoffs, and Seattle is going into their offseason already. I don’t think that the Seahawks are some great team now…it’s more to the point at how much of a collapse the Cardinals are under.

What might have happened had Russell Wilson not been hurt for 3.5 games this season…and probably came back too fast/was hindered for three straight losses after his return. Whatever it was, Seattle finished strong and for that reason, combined with his history of success, Pete Carroll deserves to return.

I’m the least fan of Pete Carroll you will find, but what else is Seattle to do? He has amassed a 193-73-1 record over 12 seasons (62% win-rate) and is (10-8) in the playoffs with two Super Bowl appearances. If you say, “Well, that was a long time ago!” Well, then first go fire Sean Payton and then Mike McCarthy…because they went to the Super Bowl once, led by an elite QB, won the title, and haven’t been back since way further back in history than Carroll…and they all have losing playoff records since as well.

Fire Carroll? It’s easy to say, but then what yayhoo ‘hot’ coordinator prospect is anyone aware of that is SOOOO much better than proven (or lucky) NFL winner Pete Carroll? I’m done paying attention to the coaching carousel that will hit like a soap opera storm for the next few weeks. I’ve arrived to the point that all NFL head coaching prospects are seriously flawed, destined to fail…and whatever decent one shakes out somehow will be one no one saw coming…and then people will be against them too, eventually. I’m done caring deeply about coaches.

If you look back at the class of 2021, the new hire head coaches – it is a clown show. We’re this advanced of a species and in a trillion dollar industry with billions at its disposal watched by millions, having some of most prestigious jobs in the world, NFL head coach, and they are filled by complete incompetents and career hangers on and young fresh face guys really into football who can talk football and make a nice presentation and/or are related to someone else in football…and none of them know the first thing about managing 100+ employees and a staff of 20+, and a few employees who make more money than you/have more power than you, and many of your employees are not into anything you’re selling/saying because they are looking for the next opportunity…and millions of moronic fans are eventually chanting your name showing their desire to have you fired at their local high school basketball games while the media insults you daily for sport. There is no training for that…and surely ex-college player, relative of a coach type human who never had a real-life day in his existence, cannot possibly be ready for the world’s toughest job variables to deal with and constant media/fan microscope.

Seattle might as well stick with Pete. The media likes him…and he’s so young for his age (I’m gonna puke if I hear that one more time).

6+ weeks ago, Pete Carroll looked all but ‘gone’ and Kliff Kingsbury was discussed as possible Coach of the Year. Now, today, Kingsbury may be on as much of a 2022 hot seat. However, he made the playoffs…so he’s safe for now. He’s tied to Kyler Murray, so he may be the safest coach in the NFL right now (Murray might/will leave if KK is canned).

The Cardinals won’t go far in the playoffs, but I hope they beat the Rams, so we don’t have to hear more about McVay and Stafford in Cabo Romance Novel material read to us by talking heads. The pregame coverage on ESPN ahead of the Rams-Cardinals game on MNF will be intolerable, led by the intolerable Louis Riddick and 75% of the time insufferable Brian Griese. How many times do you think they’ll mention how great the Matt Stafford move was? I pray they say it as he throws 7 more pick-sixes in an embarrassing loss.

This Week 18 game was a MUST WIN by Arizona…they could’ve won the NFC West title, had they won…they didn’t. That explains the Arizona Cardinals current state of affairs. Not good.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- I have to honor this first player note by mentioning Rashaad Penny (23-190-1). One of the saviors of FFM 2021 season…picked up at just the right time, mostly obtained ahead of when everyone else was thinking about it (in 10-12 team leagues…and some in 14-16 team leagues). You could call it ‘lucky’, and there is some element of luck in everything I suppose…but seeing it ahead, like with D’Onta Foreman…reading the tea leaves, knowing the player capabilities, interpreting the team situation – it’s all scouting and ‘intelligence’/intel. It wasn’t a blind dart throw.

Then it took guts to go with me for that shock Penny start Week 14 where we pushed him into our RB1 group projections when he last had an RB1 day in mid-2019 season. And he rewarded us with 137 yards and 2 TDs that Week 14. The following week EVERY FF outlet had articles with a Penny-based pun, alerting everyone to this new thing they just discovered. Your league mates maybe went to go on the waiver wire to place a claim when ESPN signaled the alert after his monster Week 14, but alas…he was gone…already on your team a week or two prior. Not only owned by you, but you started him the prior week.

For some, for FF 2021, Rashaad Penny made all the difference right up through Week 17 and 18.

If you tell me it was luck, I won’t hear of it. Don’t blame luck for all of us being one-step ahead.

Now we’re into the offseason, so thoughts turn to – is Rashaad Penny like an actual thing now in 2022? I think ‘yes’, and we’ll get into that deeper in our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball platform very soon…really soon.

For those who might have pissed and moaned about me being anti-Chris Carson and you missing out on him the past few years – this (Penny) was who/what I was afraid of. This is who I would see getting a spot opportunity and looking great and making me wonder what Pete Carroll was not seeing…and thus me constantly worried about Carson being totally taken over, and then when it didn’t…me ragging on Carson all the time. I thought Penny would have gotten this shot several times through the last 2-3 years…multiple times I thought it was coming.

No one is complaining to me about their lack of Carson on their FF teams now.

Pete Carroll and the media can spin this being about ‘Well, Penny could never stay healthy’…to that I say, ‘Bullshit’. Yes, Penny would get hurt…a bunch, but so did Carson…but over the past 2-3 seasons there have been plenty of times Penny was healthy and suppressed as Carson took another 0-3 yard carry as Penny watched from the sidelines.

This Penny-based 2021 FF-title run so many went on…this wasn’t ‘luck’ by me hopping on a train out of FF desperation and he seemed like a train we could use (and it wasn’t that way with D’Onta Foreman either) – my last few years of crying and wailing about Carroll being an idiot and throwing red flags up about Carson…it was for fear/knowledge of THIS (Penny). Years of watching every game (regular and preseason), and re-watching them, studying them, noticing what Penny was doing, being frustrated with Penny, saying I can’t trust Penny, but then trusting him, and then getting burned, then reclaiming I can’t do it again, but doing it again – all that work, all that study, all the calculations of the situation, all the prior false starts…we went heavy with Penny right before this great run, and it won titles. It wasn’t luck. We fought a losing battle multiple times here. This was on the radar for a long time. We took some pain to get to this pleasure.

Remember, I’m always right about football scouting…eventually.

Fantasy Football is not won by who had the best ‘(re)draft’ or who necessarily has the best Dynasty team going into a season…it’s also about who is the best ‘adjuster’ and ‘interpreter’ of the ever-changing landscape day-to-day. Which is not ‘luck’.

-- OK, enough talk about Rashaad Penny, for now…now it’s onto 6+ months of football media clickbait rumors and theories of what NFL QB is going to be traded where or should be traded to where. The NFL offseason has become like ‘People’ or ‘Teen Beat’ magazines…are there still magazines in circulation? Constant rumor/chatter/talk on who is dating who, who broke up with who, and so on. I’m sure at some point the journalistic genres will cross over and Pete Davidson will be rumored to be the starting QB for some NFL team per an ESPN insider.

The QB who will garner the most QB rumors this offseason might be Russell Wilson. We spent all last year enduring all the months of rumors of him and Deshaun Watson getting traded, and then in reality we got…nada…nothing but 5,000 articles speculating on all the trade possibilities.

Pete Carroll seems to be returning for Seattle, so it either means Russell Wilson has come to peace with Pete…or a messy divorce is coming with Russ on the move. By the looks of his contract, Wilson is likely staying put in Seattle in 2022…and then 2023 is maybe where the real opportunity to make moves would be.

I’m told (by the media) that Russ would like to move to somewhere near LA or NY to help his wife’s career (so they say) because planes don’t exist in the world anymore, I guess? And is a career no one is clamoring for to happen? And can’t she make content and put it on YouTube from anywhere in the U.S.? Who goes to the NY and LA entertainment cesspools anymore…it’s not 1955-2015 anymore? Russell makes enough money for everyone in the family and will be able to freely move on in a year or two, so I suspect he just goes about his business and plays it out and tries to leverage into a huge contract extension.

My bet would be between later this calendar year or in 2023, Russ is offered a nice long-term extension and he stays, as the public continues not to know his wife used to sing some popular songs once, for a moment. She has plenty of business interests going right now – she owns a rum brand/company, she’s got a big modeling contract, the couple is part owners in Seattle’s soccer team, she has a clothing line and stake in a production company – why does she need to be in NY or LA to revive a singing career that was last relevant like pre-2010? Why are there no big Ciara concert appearances people pay huge to go see? Can you name one of her songs?

I’ll take the easy bet = Russell stays in Seattle for a bit longer, maybe for forever.

-- Kyler Murray (28-39 for 240 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 5-35-0) did his part, I guess…Arizona scored 30 points. You should be able to win NFL games scoring that much.

All I’ll say is, if you watched the Week 17 CIN-KC game, and the Week 18 LAC-LV game…and either/both of Kyler’s Week 17 and 18 games – Kyler don’t look like Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow, no? That’s an NFL statement…that’s a potential FF/Dynasty statement.

Again, the Kyler case is at the top of my list of things to explore in DOBB very soon. Many of us own shares/stakes in him.

-- When Arizona scores 30, they should win…but the Cardinals defense has fallen apart right in front of our eyes. This one-time top NFL defense we rode for a half a season for DST purposes…it’s now dead. What happened? I really don’t know. Some secondary guys are hurt/out. J.J. Watt out is not good, but not doom…they were fine at first without him. Whatever it is – you can’t trust them until further notice, into 2022. We got some juice out of that orange, and then we bailed…that’s the way you do with DSTs.

-- Who is Kyler’s #1 target? Hell, if I know. It’s changing every week, which is a good thing to keep defenses on their toes…or he’s playing matchups, which is smart. But it is maddening to try to figure it out for FF purposes.

I mean, I thought it was Christian Kirk (2-43-0/3)…but 3 targets here in a must-win, yikes.

It was Zach Ertz (7-84-0/10) this game, which makes sense against Seattle minus Bobby Wagner. But that got me to thinking…Ertz has fit in nicely here, but he’s a free agent in 2022. Not likely back, no? Ertz will be 32 years old next season, and still looks like he can go OK. Travis Kelce will be 33 years old next year.

The fall of the Arizona WRs (for FF)…the unable to identify who is ‘the guy’/there might not be ‘a guy’ for Kyler’s style thoughts that I am getting – that concept/thought doesn’t make me feel warm and fuzzy about my love for Rondale Moore in 2022. If you leave the 2021 season thinking, “Well, RC…you got it wrong on Rondale.” I would just say, be careful betting against me. Eventually, I’m going to be proven correct…(but it might not be until 2027 is the bad part of that FF tale).

-- Just like I’m right about James Conner (15-52-1, 6-41-1/6). He’s killing that run game, which puts more pressure on the passing game. Sure, Conner is catching some passes and making FF numbers, usually off 1-yard TD plunges, but he’s not good/threatening for the offense. Chase Edmonds caught a ton of passes too, when Conner was out the prior two weeks…and he’s more of a weapon after the catch. Any kinda beefy RB could plunge for 1-yard TDs…remember Kenyan Drake was a TD stud in 2020 for Arizona?

James Conner is a free agent in a few weeks. Who knows if he’ll be back? All I know is -- if he goes, his replacement scores 10+ TDs next season, easily. My bet is – Conner is back, heavily paid…and it will be a big mistake. They could get free agent D’Onta Foreman cheaper to go in and run for 1-yard TDs.

-- How about Jordyn Brooks (20 tackles, 2 TFLs)? Bobby Wagner out, and Brooks just stole all those leftover tackles. Brooks is becoming/already is a legit LB1 for IDP going into 2022.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Conner

25 = Benjamin

05 = Jon Ward

43 = Penny

13 = Homer

02 = DeeJay Dallas

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season early-signups start January 6th, 2022, NoonET**

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

: Ross Jacobs; FFM; 09 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Steelers 26, Browns 14 (By Ross Jacobs)

This game was exactly the tragic, godawful mess you would expect. Two of the worst, most dysfunctional offenses in the league battling it out to see who is worse.

In the end, an extremely injured Baker Mayfield with terrible play-calling, bad receivers, and bad pass blocking won out over the shell of Ben Roethlisberger for most inept offense. It's sad to see how far these two have fallen.

It sounds like Mayfield has played his last game in Cleveland through no fault of his own. The media is tearing him a new a-hole right now for the crime of trying to play through very painful injuries that needed surgery months ago and trying to will his team to the playoffs with absolutely no help.

He was sacked 9 times here, so don't try to tell me this was Baker's fault. He's been under siege all year with no help, and still somehow kept things somewhat afloat.

If you think Baker is what's wrong with this broken franchise then nothing I say is going to change your mind, and you have absolutely no idea what you're seeing when you watch these games. I'll say it one more time for the people in the back: Baker is NOT the problem here. Just like Goff wasn't the problem in LA. Just like Foles wasn't the problem in Philly.

The QB is the fall guy but only if the media decided his fate before he was drafted. You can always tell who they are against because every tiny thing that goes wrong against their team is deemed the QB's fault and every positive is just the coaching fixing them or the WR's are bailing them out etc etc. It's the same garbage ad hoc explaining every time. And they are ALWAYS wrong.

THEIR guys are protected, coddled, and have every excuse in the world made for them. Jameis. Darnold. Cam. Gabbert. Bortles. Manziel. Wentz. Fields. I could go on and on. I have no idea how the media is so bad at picking QB's, but I know it's a fact and I know they will defend them until the guy is out of the league. And the opposite goes for guys they are against.

So with that knowledge it was easy to see that Baker was doomed to fail in Cleveland. The situation there is the same as it's always been. It's the same franchise that won 3 total games over a three year period. They clawed out of it for a few seasons almost entirely BECAUSE of Mayfield. And now they are going to sink back into the muck when he's gone.

Baker has my sympathies for how he's being treated. But the good news is he can escape Cleveland with only 4 years gone from his career. There is plenty of time to build himself back up, and I hope he does. The deck is stacked against him because the media will always be out to get him, but if he plays his cards right and lands with the right team things might turn out ok.

If I was Baker I would be thinking hard about how to find my way to New Orleans. He was always compared to Drew Brees anyways and would be a fantastic QB to resurrect that team like Brees did so many years ago. Sean Payton took a talented Brees back when he was booted out of San Diego for his supposed struggles and injury and helped him develop into one of the greatest QB's of the past 20 years. Baker has all the talent in the world to do the same.

Of course, the parallels are too easy and the story works too perfectly, so there's no way that will happen in real life. Unless it does...

On the other side of the field Roethlisberger just played his last home game in Pittsburgh and everyone knows it. Hell, Ben practically announced it himself.

He thinks he's walking away, but the reality is the team doesn't want him back either. He's cooked. There's no football left in him. If he tries to play another year it's going to be a disaster of epic proportions. Better to just ride away into the sunset with a couple of Super Bowls, a hero of the only team you've ever played for, and a Hall of Famer (whether deserved or not).

Will he do that? I honestly don't know. I bet he kicks the tires on it for a few months, acts like he's debating it while seeing if there's any interest from other teams. When it becomes clear that nobody is paying him to be a starter in 2022, he'll act like he decided on his own to walk away.

Despite the win Pittsburgh has all but been eliminated from the playoffs. Technically they are still alive, but they would have to beat the Ravens, have the Colts lose to the Jaguars, and have the Raiders/Chargers game not end in a tie. Very unlikely to happen.

So what's the plan for 2022? Ben is gone. Tomlin appears to be coming back. The offensive line is still a problem. The offensive game plan will once again be built around Najee. Who the QB ultimately is will contribute to how the team does and how much we like/dislike the Steelers skill position players for fantasy.

My best guess is they are going to trot out Haskins and claim he's developed. If that happens then we bail on everything Pittsburgh related for fantasy. No Najee, no Diontae, no Claypool, no Freiermuth. Haskins will turn this team from an average group into one of the league's worst in a heartbeat.

If they somehow manage to find a decent QB (doubtful), then we can reconsider. But that could change the dynamic here massively. Diontae was Ben's boy. With Ben gone I don't think we can count on Diontae keeping up his scoring without the ridiculous volume he was being fed.

But perhaps it would be better for Claypool? If he gets a guy that can actually hit him accurately on these deep shots he might suddenly become a viable option again.

The safest bet right now though is to fade them all. I don't like Tomlin's personnel management, the game plans, any of it. This has disaster written all over it, and RC has seen it coming for the past 2-3 years. 2022 might be the final collapse of the Steelers for a while.

Fantasy Notes

--Najee Harris (28-188-1) finally had himself a good game on the ground against a dying Cleveland defense and honestly this was the best he's looked all year.

Why? Because the Steelers finally were able to open up some holes and let him run downhill. When he can do that Harris is as good as any RB in the league. He's fast enough straight ahead and is a bully with a full head of steam. His issue most of the year was there were no holes to run through and he was trying to jump cut away from danger. He's just not agile enough to do that.

We know he's going to be the center of the offense again, and if the offensive line gets some help he might live up to his draft position in 2022. But there is still the looming question of who his QB will be. If it's Haskins I think you have to avoid Najee because the scoring opportunities will be few and far between and he won't get the same volume in the passing game.

Someone else and things might not be so bad. Think of the difference between 2020 James Robinson and 2021 James Robinson. The only thing that changed was a worse QB was brought in this year, and the offense went from bad to league worst. That's the fear with Pittsburgh next year.

Just because he splashed as a rookie does not mean he's a slam dunk every year forever. Just ask Saquon. Surroundings are just as important, or even more so, than talent.

--I have the same issues with Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool next year as we've already discussed. Will the volume be the same? Because that's the only thing holding them up right now, and Claypool has even fallen even/behind Ray-Ray McCloud in the offense for the moment.

He might work his way out of that role by 2022, but it's no guarantee. Love the talent, hate this situation.

--Ditto everything said above for Donovan Peoples-Jones. I see a #1 WR caliber talent with DPJ, but the only thing keeping him afloat was Baker. New QB means the targeting could change, and Cleveland is likely to bring in new receivers next year. Will DPJ remain the top guy with some hotshot rookie coming to town? Hard to bet on that. DPJ is worth a speculative stash cheaply, but I'm not expecting much to come of it.

--What to do with Nick Chubb? He's one of the best pure talents at RB in the entire league, but with a run-heavy head coach and one of the supposed best offensive lines in football, Chubb somehow was a disappointment this year. There's really nothing you can do but hold and pray for a bounce back. He's too talented not to.

IDP Notes

--Grant Delpit has tallied 28 total tackles over his last three games after being elevated to playing basically every snap. He could be a big breakout at safety in 2022 fantasy. Wasn't super impressed with his play here, but you can't fault the stat trends.

Snap Counts of Interest

72 = Diontae

71 = Claypool

53 = McCloud

64 = DPJ

50 = Landry

41 = Higgins

: Ross Jacobs; FFM; 08 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Titans 34, Dolphins 3 (By Ross Jacobs)

The Titans thumped the Dolphins here obviously, but I do have a couple of narratives to bust after watching this game.

Clearly the Dolphins recent success was more schedule-based than anything. It's much easier to look like a good team when you're playing the worst 2 or 3 teams in the league every week. But I have to admit that this wasn't quite as big a beatdown as the score would indicate. The Titans scored 10 points in the final 10 minutes off of turnovers as the Dolphins flailed away trying to mount a comeback. Before that Tennessee was doing ok offensively but definitely weren't great.

Another factor here was the rain. It was coming down heavy and that greatly affected the gameplans of both teams. It was terrible for RC's BTO (baby throw offense) for Miami. It greatly helped Tennessee, however, because it forced them to do what they should have been doing for weeks...give D'Onta Foreman the ball like you would Derrick Henry. That worked out pretty well.

I don't think this was some big coming out party for the Tennessee defense though. They are ok, safe, disciplined, but they were getting run on early and their pass defense hasn't been good all year. Elijah Molden's emergence is helping though. We'll talk about him later. It seemed like just one of those games that lines up nicely. I want to see Tennessee stop a real offense before I get on board with them. The Chiefs and Bengals are a far cry from the Dolphins.

Tennessee is not a great team. They might not even be the best team in the AFC. But they are a solid, disciplined team that rarely beats themselves, and now they are getting back the engine of the offense. By all accounts it sounds like Henry is somehow healthy and ready to make a playoff run. If that's true then you have to think Tennessee are the favorites to make the Superbowl.

I can't stand the man, but I have to give Mike Vrabel some credit. He's the first former Belichick assistant to actually succeed in this league by copying his coach/boss. I'll have to think about it more, but Vrabel is on my short list for Coach of the Year.

This loss knocked Miami out of the playoffs. They'll still come out firing next week trying to beat the division rival Patriots and keep them from winning the division, but I don't think that's going to happen. New England is still hoping to win the division if the Bills somehow lose to the Jets, so they have everything to play for. I imagine we'll see a close game because Miami really isn't as bad as they looked here against the Titans, but I do expect the Patriots to find a way to win which would lock up mine and RC's under bet against the Dolphins.

Fantasy Notes

--Why didn't the Titans just give D'Onta Foreman the ball like this weeks ago? It's been there the whole time. He's not Derrick Henry but he does as good an impression as anyone in the league. The funny thing is he still was riding the bench on the first series like always. I have no idea why they always start with Hilliard but they do.

Foreman is headed back to the bench with Henry back obviously. He'll be a free agent this year, but I'll bet a dime to a dollar that nobody around the league signs him to be their starter. Henry returning for the playoffs is going to cost Foreman money because there's nothing like a successful playoff run to prove to GM's that you can play. Most likely he comes back to Tennessee on a cheap deal to be Henry's backup again.

--AJ Brown disappeared after his monster performance last week. It was a combination of the rain, Xavien Howard, and Tennessee building a big lead. Nothing wrong with Brown. He should be considered a WR1 from here on out, although a streaky one due to the offense and Tannehill's limitations. Getting Henry back will only help him.

--The craziest thing I'm walking away from this game thinking...the biggest reason the Miami offense got shut down is because Tennessee shut down the engine of their offense, Jaylen Waddle. How did they do this when Waddle has been a ppr monster tearing teams up with these underneath throws?

Elijah Molden is already one of the best slot corners in the league. He was all over Waddle and wiped him out with ease. Waddle finally caught a deep ball late in the game for 45 yards with another corner on him. Before that Molden only allowed him to catch 2 passes for a combined 2 yards. Molden is the better Tyrann Mathieu and we're just finishing up year one. Let's see how long it takes the media to figure out how good he is.

--Miami went with a split of Miles Gaskin and Duke Johnson here even though Johnson played far more snaps as a pass blocker. They both looked pretty good running the ball (which makes me worry about the Tennessee run defense) and might have run for more yards if Miami didn't get down so quickly. Johnson is the better of the two by a lot though and Miami knows it.

Neither guy will be starting here next year if I had to bet on it, but Johnson might stick as the 3rd down back. It was no secret that Miami wanted Najee Harris or Javonte Williams in the 2021 draft. They won't miss on drafting a high RB again. Brian Robinson or Isaiah Spiller will be wearing a Dolphins jersey next year, most likely Spiller since RC loves him and will hate this landing spot.

*RC NOTE: I will love this landing spot (hopefully)…because there will be no split role situation thrust upon Spiller because Gaskin or Duke are so good Flores ends up doing a/wasting time with a Javonte/Mel Gordon type thing. I want Spiller to go to a place where he rockets right to the main carries.

IDP Notes

--In the immortal words of Troy Aikman, I really like Christian Wilkins (10 tackles, 1 tfl). 82 tackles (5.1 per game) on the year for a DT is nuts. He's averaged 8 tackles a game over his last three games.

He isn't getting the huge sack numbers like Donald, but he's one of the best DT's in the game and I won't hear otherwise. There are other ways to impact the game than just getting sacks on defense and Wilkins does all those things well in addition to being a great leader. He'll get his recognition in due time.

--Tennessee has fully committed to Zach Cunningham now. He'll be the starter in the middle next year. I suspect David Long will be the other start and Rashaan Evans will rotate in. Jayon Brown is the odd man out for some reason. Personally I think he's the best of the bunch, but what do I know?

I don't care for Cunningham really. He's a run stopper but sucks in coverage. Long is a good player and who I would pair with Brown if it was my team. I bet he doesn't get nearly the same tackle counts next year with Cunningham in the fold though. Cunningham is Vrabel's boy and nothing will change that.

Snap Counts of Interest

41 = Foreman

15 = Hilliard

57 = Swaim

29 = Firkser

36 = Duke

15 = Gaskin

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 08 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Cardinals 25, Cowboys 22

This was a pretty high stakes game for a Week 17 affair…a lot on the line with two teams that at various points of the season were mentioned as Super Bowl sleepers and perhaps ‘best teams in the league?’ debates at one time.

Arizona came into this game reeling. The one-time (7-0) squad was (3-5) since their undefeated run ended on a miscommunication game-winning TD shot to A.J. Green, who turned the wrong way and cost the Cardinals a huge win over Green Bay…and they’ve been falling apart since.

Dallas came into the game winners of four in a row and already NFC East champs, now with a shot at a #1 seed.

This was going to be a statement game…a playoff-level affair, and the two teams didn’t play all that particularly well, but Arizona showed a level of fight/desperation and beat Dallas off the jump, racing out to a 22-7 lead going into the 4th-quarter, with Dallas spinning their wheels. But then the Cowboys made a 4th-quarter surge and closed the game to just 3 points with 4:42 remaining…but they couldn’t get another score to tie/win, and Arizona held on to win. It wasn’t pretty but Arizona got a much-needed win.

What this game said to me: These are two ‘pretender’ teams for the NFL playoffs. Better than the average NFL team, capable of winning games against good teams in-season, but as we get closer to crunch time…they’re both going to fail and are both threats to lose in the 1st-round of the playoffs, except they will probably be facing each other.

Neither of these teams are winning a title this season, and they should go into 2022 offseason with serious questions about their head coaches and the construct of their teams going forward, but they will likely just stand pat with this group and convince themselves (and the media will help them think it) that if they just didn’t have those key injuries in-season they would’ve been a #1 seed and they’re like one little thing away from being great.

The cold hard truth is…these teams are good but lacking. Their head coaches should be in serious question. Neither team is great or close to it. Dallas is closer to the great group than Arizona, but still ‘short’.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Kyler Murray (26-38 for 263 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 9-44-0) bounced back from his mini-slump to have a solid output game. You figured in a ‘big game’ against a hot Dallas D…it wasn’t a good setup for Kyler to turn things around, but he posted a good game…because he’s a really good QB.

But is he a great QB? I’m going to explore and debate that in the upcoming days/weeks on our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball (DOBB) platform. Many FFMers own Kyler in Dynasty, and we need to explore – where do we go from here? Is it going to get any better?

Kyler has been a top 3 Fantasy QB (4pts pass TD) the past two seasons. He finished #4 in PPG among QBs this FF-season, a blink away from #2. He’s been a good asset. Great ROI the past three years. Can we go higher? What does the future hold? We’ll examine it all on DOBB this offseason.

-- Kyler’s two TD passes were to Antoine Wesley (4-30-2/5) in this game. Is Wesley breaking out? Does he have an FF future? Maybe. His uprising comes from DeAndre Hopkins going down and pushing Wesley to a starting role…and the big 6’4” target has been Kyler’s bail out end zone look for the past several weeks – which is smart of Kyler to use the height advantage as needed. Outside of that, I don’t see any future star activity – just no longer a nobody.

In 2022, as it sits right now, I suspect the starting trio for Arizona will be: Hopkins-Wesley-Rondale…with Wesley in the A.J. Green/2021 role. Unless AJG is brought back (and he shouldn’t be, unless as a crafty #4 WR…which he won't wanna be), Wesley is in line for a starting role in 2022…but if he is it will probably be for Allen Lazard/GB 2020-2021 like activity…the lesser targeted deep ball guy who gets TDs but on 2-6 targets a game, randomly…unpredictable WR3-4 work.

There’s some FF-hope here with Wesley where there wasn’t a few months ago, but I’m not sure the ceiling is all that high.

-- There’s an Ezekiel Elliott (9-16-0, 1-14-0/2) crisis happening in Dallas.

The cover up story on it, to not embarrass Jerry for this wasted money big contract, and to defend a media beloved player anyway, will be that Zeke’s working with some secret injury. It’s possible, I guess.

However, Zeke has been practicing in full for weeks/months during his statistical collapse since Week 6 – where he’s been running well under 4.0 yards per carry, taking an ever-decreasing touch count (12.2 carries per game since Week 6), and starting to see decreased passing game targets. His snap counts have been about the same all year, but his performance is nose diving.

Dallas’s coaches/offense are moving away from Zeke a little bit at a time…like a boiling the frog theory. So slowly it’s not fully noticed. Whether it’s because of a secret injury or secretly his career/skills are fading off…something is happening but we’re such a Zeke-is-god centric FF culture, we don’t wanna see it.

Really since Elliott’s splash 2016, his numbers on a graph have been fading…showing him to be ‘good-not-great’, but we treat him like he is RB royalty. Dallas has a CAP issue with him, they have a media issue with him – he’s too costly to cut and the media props him up in the fans’ eyes. He’s a head fake. He should not be a 1st-round redraft RB in 2022, when you look back over his career trends since his rookie season…but he probably will be.

If you cut the season off now, so that Zeke has played 16 games (what we’re all used to for ‘a season’) – did you know he would now have his last two seasons under 1,000 yards rushing and barely above 4.0 yards per carry…with a good+ O-Line and QB most of that time, but missed them some of 2020 – but what good is he if he can’t produce in troubled times OR the good times anymore? Elijah Mitchell is a better producer right off the bat, as a 6th-round rookie RB, than Elliott today. And that’s just one example.

-- The Arizona secondary is all banged up and has been getting smoked the past few weeks, but then facing the great Dak and his all-star WRs…CeeDee Lamb (3-51-0/4) is nothing (again), and Amari Cooper’s (3-18-1/7) disappearing act continued.

Michael Gallup (3-36-1/4) was becoming this team’s best WR…but then he tore his ACL and Cedrick Wilson (6-35-1/6) entered and was Dallas’s best WR.

What is going on in Dallas?

Pollard is better than Elliott.

Gallup-Wilson-Brown are better than Amari and CeeDee.

I can’t say that out loud because the Cult of CeeDee media and fans won’t be having it.

-- Chase Edmonds (18-53-0, 5-29-0/6) got an opportunity to start again with James Conner out, and he had another ho-hum performance. He’s a much better RB as part of a duo, with Edmonds as the pass catcher. Edmonds has had several chances to seize this backfield and never capitalized on any of the chances.

A good+ pass catching back, a weapon in the passing game…not a lead back. Capable, in a pinch, but not going to lead a backfield for a season and take the punishment, stay healthy, and be a revelation.

Snap Counts of Interest:

45 = Zeke

19 = Pollard

62 = Edmonds

09 = Benjamin

08 = Jon Ward

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season early-signups start January 6th, 2022, NoonET**

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

: Ross Jacobs; FFM; 07 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Eagles 20, Washington 16 (By Ross Jacobs)

Up until now, the Eagles have been whipping lesser teams, but in the first half of this game Washington was doing the whipping. They were taking it to Philly, scoring on their first three possessions.The score was 16-7 Washington at the half, and it looked like the Eagles were going down.

The second half was a whole different story though as Philly grinded their way back into the game. They started to get more pressure on Heinicke, and the offense started pounding away on the ground. The Eagles would score 13 unanswered points to take the win, although Washington had one last shot with 2 minutes left but Heinicke was intercepted in the endzone to end it.

Washington played much better than they did two weeks ago, but it still wasn't enough. This Eagles team is just a really tough out right now. They are probably no real threat to win the Superbowl, but I wouldn't want my team playing them either.

Fantasy Notes

--Funny how we don't hear any more criticism of Jalen Hurts now that he's in the playoffs. RC and I have said it all year: he's as good or better than Lamar Jackson and the numbers back it up. We don't need the numbers to see what's been right in front of our faces this entire time.

But don't let that distract you from the fact that the second Hurts has a bump in the road or loses in the first round of the playoffs or has a multi-turnover game, the media is going to be calling for his head all over again. It won't even take that. Once the off-season begins and Deshaun Watson is available to trade for, they'll try to replace Hurts with him.

You see it happen over and over again. The media chooses who they like before the draft, and nothing will ever change their minds. They got Goff replaced. They are about to get Mayfield replaced. They'll get Hurts replaced someday. It might take a few years, but it will happen.

For 2022 though, Hurts is the guy. There's no doubt about that. He's bought himself another year at least. And he's still a QB1 all day long, especially in 4-pt passing TD leagues.

--I can't say the same for Taylor Heinicke. He hasn't been awful this year, but it's clear he's just backup material. If Ryan Fitzpatrick comes back healthy he'll start over Heinicke at least, and there's a good chance we'll see a rookie QB brought in to compete as well.

--I can already tell you one of my favorite value picks in 2022 drafts is going to be Devonta Smith. He's 100% going to be undervalued because his rookie year wasn't as statistically productive as Ja'Marr Chase or Jaylen Waddle and he's playing with a lower volume passer in Hurts.

I don't care about those things at all. Devonta is the best talent of the three, and having a low volume can be an impediment, but it's not a guarantee. Look at Deebo and Garoppolo this year. If you dominate targets and are efficient with them, you can still put up huge numbers even in weaker passing games.

Devonta is too good, and just like Chase with Burrow, he's got his college teammate throwing him the ball. You think that connection isn't going to grow? Hurts has been looking for Smith more and more the past few games. By next year Smith is going to be “the guy.” I'm buying every share of Devonta I can find.

--Jaret Patterson got his crack at the starting job and proved himself capable. He's not a star or a future starting RB, but he belongs on the field in part of a rotation. He's a small guy and not very fast, but he runs smart and tough. He'll likely be the Antonio Gibson backup again next year and when Gibson inevitably gets hurt again Patterson will take over and produce nicely.

--Rookie TE John Bates has been trending up in snap counts over Ricky Seals-Jones the past few weeks, and when RSJ got hurt after colliding with a cameraman on the sidelines, it just opened things up even more for Bates.

Like Patterson, I think he's capable, a role player. I don't see any star potential here, but he can be a rotational pass catcher. Also like Patterson I think he probably starts next season as a backup to Logan Thomas.

--Have we seen the last of Miles Sanders after his latest injury? No, probably not. But I do think we've seen the last of his days as a “feature” RB. He's just not reliable and the offense works as good or better with Boston Scott as the lead.

Sanders likely comes back for his last year in Philly, but I bet it's as the “lead” of a rotation. My guess is he gets reduced to 8-9 carries a game and maybe a catch or two as the Eagles just go full RBBC. He'll get hurt again mid-season, but then come back the last 4-5 games and suddenly go on a tear after every other RB gets hurt, and some sucker like Jacksonville will pay him $10 million to be their starter in 2023. That's how these things always go...

--Dallas Goedert is finally going to be in the conversation as a top 5 TE next year now that Ertz is out of his way. He and Hurts have shown a really good and growing connection, and of course Goedert has always been one of the most physically gifted TE's in the league. I think next year we'll be debating Kelce, Kittle, and Andrews as the top 3 and Waller, Goedert, and Schultz in the next group.

--Don't look now but Cam Sims was back on the field and looking pretty darn good again just like he did late last year. Could he finally take a step forward and become a full starter next year? Maybe. I'd bet against it though but not because he can't play.

McLaurin is the star here. The team paid good money to Curtis Samuel so he'll get a chance to get healthy. They also drafted Dyami Brown and will force him out there no matter how awful he is. Where does Sims fit into that puzzle?

At best he's likely a bit-player IF he comes back. My guess is he gets a small one year contract to go somewhere else and try to carve out a larger role.

IDP Notes

--Josh Sweat (5 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 pd) has been on a statistical tear lately. He has a combined 4 sacks in his last 4 games, albeit against the Jets, Giants, and twice against Washington. 7 of his 7.5 sacks on the year have come against those three teams plus Detroit and Carolina...not exactly a bastion of great offensive lines.

I don't see anything worth talking about with him. He's a pure speed rusher only. Sometimes he gets a good jump and blows past weaker blockers, but most of the time he gets engulfed and is completely useless. Reminds me of a Bruce Irvin type rusher.

--1st round Washington LB Jamin Davis has been a massive disappointment this year. He's battled injuries and ineffectiveness and has only 68 tackles on the year. I don't remember ever seeing him stand out this year, but he's clearly got the physical skills to become a good player.

Maybe he just needs another year or two of seasoning. If he can get healthy I could see him growing into a very good player eventually. He's not a player I would casually write off as a bust so quickly. I have a feeling we haven't heard the last of Davis...

Snap Counts of Interest

60 = McLaurin

47 = Sims

33 = Humphries

22 = Carter

39 = Patterson

16 = Smallwood

58 = Devonta

31 = Reagor

31 = Watkins

32 = Scott

21 = Howard

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 07 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Raiders 23, Colts 20

My line of thinking walking away from this game rewatch…

1) Coming into this week/game, I thought the Colts are a really good football team…just having whooped New England and Arizona in recent weeks, winners of six of their last 7 games and eight of their last 10.

2) Going into this week/game, I would say that the Colts are one of the best 10 teams in the NFL…more in the #6-10 range. But still…a very good NFL team.

3) The Raiders, I would classify going in, are a ‘mediocre’ team. You never know what version you’ll get any particular week.

4) The Raiders went to Indianapolis this game and immediately punched the Colts in the mouth…a 10-0 Raiders early 2nd-quarter lead.

5) The Colts came back from the 10-0 deficit to take back the lead 17-13 at the end of three quarters…but it was A LOT of luck doing so. Fluke penalties. Am Indy bomb TD that should’ve been a pick, but guys ran into each other to get it and the ball caromed off their hands and right backwards to a Colts WR standing in the end zone.

6) Despite the bad luck, the Raiders regathered themselves and took back the lead…and eventually the win.

7) The Raiders are a better team than the Colts. They might play a hundred times and it be 55-45 Raiders. It’s not that the Raiders are a thousand times better – but I walk away from this game looking back over their seasons and see the Raiders as the lesser overall talented group, but the grittier junkyard dog group that you’d bet on in a street fight.

8) The Colts are too finesse, too SAWFT to really go far in the playoffs…but they’re good, they can hang…but they are not killers/streetfighters.

I go through all my logic above to say, I’ll take the Raiders (9-7) to upset the Chargers (9-7) Week 18 and thus make it the playoffs. The Chargers are SAWFTer than the Colts are. The Raiders have won four of their last 6 games and really should be five of their last 6 (but are lucky they aren’t 3-3 in that span either).

The Colts (9-7) should…should beat Jacksonville and get to the wild card as well, which would leave them the #7 seed with LV just getting the seeding tiebreaker over them.

Neither Vegas nor Indy are going very far in the playoffs, but if they both lose 1st-round…it will feel like a huge accomplishment for Vegas anyway, and should get the interim head coach hired as the real head coach (he deserves it)…but for the Colts it will feel like a big letdown season.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Nothing FF-earth shattering, or game changing happened/caught my attention here with any of the players involved, except one situation – Zay Jones (8-120-0/10) has become a real thing.

The past 6 weeks = 5.5 rec., 57.2 yards, 0.0 TDs per game

The past 3 weeks = 6.7 rec., 70.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game

Zay Jones has become a real WR, again, in the NFL…five NFL seasons and three teams later.

In 2017, Zay Jones and Cooper Kupp battled for our top-rated WR prospect from that draft class. You think Kupp had a decorated career at Eastern Washington? Zay Jones was also a college mega star at East Carolina.

Jones was the 4th WR taken in the 2017 NFL Draft, #37 overall by Buffalo. Jones had a 56 catch, 653 yards, 7 TD season his 2nd NFL season, doing so with a hodgepodge of bad QBs led mostly by rookie, wildly erratic Josh Allen. Buffalo threw for all of 14 TD passes in 2017…Zay caught half of them.

Zay then had some mental health issues in 2019, got cut by Buffalo and scooped up by the Raiders where he has been rehabbing his career and now he’s just starting to hit a stride.

…just in time for his 2022 free agency.

Zay is back from the dead and will be rising up the Dynasty Stash board on the next/final publishing.

Zay’s rise has coincided with Bryan Edwards’s (0-0-0/2) demise. Carr prefers Zay over Edwards, by a mile…and Zay is getting on par with Hunter Renfrow (7-76-1/9) as an option week-to-week.

If the Raiders re-sign Zay Jones, then this is something to watch in 2022…Zay as Carr’s quasi-Davante Adams like WR throw. Yeah, I said it. Not saying Zay will be a god in FF 2022, or any year…but am wanting to highlight that his FF/Dynasty valuation is stirring here – he was a highly rated prospect coming into the league, he’s not a nobody.

If Zay takes the money and goes elsewhere, then I’m not as FF-excited – the continuity with Carr (and Rich Bisaccia) is the FF-key here to 2022 value.

-- Zay Jones is filling the void Darren Waller left behind. I didn’t think he would, by so much, so I’d been pushing Foster Moreau (1-9-0/1) as a nice option to get more work/targets in Waller’s stead. My bad…that didn’t happen, at all. Zay was the Waller-gone play…I just didn’t want to believe it.

If Waller is back Week 18…I’m not sure it’s a big switch off from Zay-Renfrow being established recently.

-- Back last offseason, how many people were like…”OOH, Carson Wentz to the Colts with Frank Reich, where he will have his career resurrected like Reich did for Nick Foles and Wentz could be a QB1 threat with this Colts offense!”

First off, not true…it was Foles who made Reich, and got Philly a Super Bowl they didn’t deserve – and then was thrown out with the trash for it after.

Secondly: Carson Wentz (16-27 for 148 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) finished the FF season (Wks 1-17) as the #17 PPG (4pts pass TD) QB in Fantasy. Not a QB1.

Derek Carr (24-31 for 255 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) winds up #15.

Can’t wait to hear/see all the 2022 offseason analysis of…”Well, imagine Wentz when he’s in Year Two of this Frank Reich offense!”

I won’t be imagining it.

Wentz has never been as good as Nick Foles…and isn’t today either.

-- Seven games in a row, and counting, since Michael Pittman (6-47-0/6) last scored a TD. His numbers have steadily declined as the season has gone on…in part, because the Colts have garbage for all their other pass game weapons and Pittman gets doubled and tripled a lot.

Week 18 vs. JAX could finally be where Pittman breaks the goal line again. He caught a pass here for what looked like a score…but was tackled a few feet short.

-- Divine Diablo (9 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD) has started the past four games, played heavily in the last 5 games. In that span, he has hit 9 or more tackles in a game three times…7.0 total tackles per game in that span. He’s transitioning from SAF to LB pretty well.

-- Let’s all give a round of applause to Daniel Carlson (3/3 FGs, 2/2 XPs)…the most FFM-owned kicker to end the season. Most of us started with Matt Gay, but then around the Gay bye week we saw switches off to Gano/Carlson then a sharp move to Carlson to the finish.

I don’t talk kicker scouting a ton, because people don’t care that much to hear it, but I pushed Carlson for years/right out of the gates…he was a special case. And I’m so glad he’s having this career year as Mike Zimmer is going to get fired.

It was Zimmer/Minnesota who drafted Carlson, highly, in 2018…the nation’s top kicker. Zimmer then got pissy about some misses in a preseason game and Zim dumped him before the regular season. It was then Ass’t Head Coach/Special Teams guru, now Raiders interim head coach, Rich Bisaccia who quickly scooped Carlson up for LV/away from the rest of the league.

So, on behalf of Daniel Carlson, who is one the best human beings in the NFL…and now one of the best kickers...I give Mike Zimmer a giant middle finger on his way to his non-playoff-going-ass being fired next week.

Carlson is currently tied for the league lead in FGs made in the NFL and ended up tied for #2 in FF PK PPG behind #1 Nick Folk.

FFM leaves no stone unturned. Matt Gay…Evan McPherson…Daniel Carlson…I know kickers pretty well too. Is there anything I’m not great at in football scouting? It’s just that I just can’t pick football game outcomes against the spread any different than flipping coins – but I know player talent when I see it/sense it or the computer identifies them for me.

CFM 2022 early sign-ups are taking place right now. We need your support so I can not get a real job (for more money and less hours) and rather spend 70+ hours a week scouting football players/things every day, all year...including kickers.

Snap Counts of Interest:

55 = Pittman

36 = Hilton

34 = Pascal

33 = Alie-Cox

22 = Doyle

48 = Zay J

46 = Bry Edw

43 = Renfrow

16 = DJax

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season early-signups start January 6th, 2022, NoonET**

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.