- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Steelers 26, Browns 14 (By Ross Jacobs)
This game was exactly the tragic, godawful mess you would expect. Two of the worst, most dysfunctional offenses in the league battling it out to see who is worse.
In the end, an extremely injured Baker Mayfield with terrible play-calling, bad receivers, and bad pass blocking won out over the shell of Ben Roethlisberger for most inept offense. It's sad to see how far these two have fallen.
It sounds like Mayfield has played his last game in Cleveland through no fault of his own. The media is tearing him a new a-hole right now for the crime of trying to play through very painful injuries that needed surgery months ago and trying to will his team to the playoffs with absolutely no help.
He was sacked 9 times here, so don't try to tell me this was Baker's fault. He's been under siege all year with no help, and still somehow kept things somewhat afloat.
If you think Baker is what's wrong with this broken franchise then nothing I say is going to change your mind, and you have absolutely no idea what you're seeing when you watch these games. I'll say it one more time for the people in the back: Baker is NOT the problem here. Just like Goff wasn't the problem in LA. Just like Foles wasn't the problem in Philly.
The QB is the fall guy but only if the media decided his fate before he was drafted. You can always tell who they are against because every tiny thing that goes wrong against their team is deemed the QB's fault and every positive is just the coaching fixing them or the WR's are bailing them out etc etc. It's the same garbage ad hoc explaining every time. And they are ALWAYS wrong.
THEIR guys are protected, coddled, and have every excuse in the world made for them. Jameis. Darnold. Cam. Gabbert. Bortles. Manziel. Wentz. Fields. I could go on and on. I have no idea how the media is so bad at picking QB's, but I know it's a fact and I know they will defend them until the guy is out of the league. And the opposite goes for guys they are against.
So with that knowledge it was easy to see that Baker was doomed to fail in Cleveland. The situation there is the same as it's always been. It's the same franchise that won 3 total games over a three year period. They clawed out of it for a few seasons almost entirely BECAUSE of Mayfield. And now they are going to sink back into the muck when he's gone.
Baker has my sympathies for how he's being treated. But the good news is he can escape Cleveland with only 4 years gone from his career. There is plenty of time to build himself back up, and I hope he does. The deck is stacked against him because the media will always be out to get him, but if he plays his cards right and lands with the right team things might turn out ok.
If I was Baker I would be thinking hard about how to find my way to New Orleans. He was always compared to Drew Brees anyways and would be a fantastic QB to resurrect that team like Brees did so many years ago. Sean Payton took a talented Brees back when he was booted out of San Diego for his supposed struggles and injury and helped him develop into one of the greatest QB's of the past 20 years. Baker has all the talent in the world to do the same.
Of course, the parallels are too easy and the story works too perfectly, so there's no way that will happen in real life. Unless it does...
On the other side of the field Roethlisberger just played his last home game in Pittsburgh and everyone knows it. Hell, Ben practically announced it himself.
He thinks he's walking away, but the reality is the team doesn't want him back either. He's cooked. There's no football left in him. If he tries to play another year it's going to be a disaster of epic proportions. Better to just ride away into the sunset with a couple of Super Bowls, a hero of the only team you've ever played for, and a Hall of Famer (whether deserved or not).
Will he do that? I honestly don't know. I bet he kicks the tires on it for a few months, acts like he's debating it while seeing if there's any interest from other teams. When it becomes clear that nobody is paying him to be a starter in 2022, he'll act like he decided on his own to walk away.
Despite the win Pittsburgh has all but been eliminated from the playoffs. Technically they are still alive, but they would have to beat the Ravens, have the Colts lose to the Jaguars, and have the Raiders/Chargers game not end in a tie. Very unlikely to happen.
So what's the plan for 2022? Ben is gone. Tomlin appears to be coming back. The offensive line is still a problem. The offensive game plan will once again be built around Najee. Who the QB ultimately is will contribute to how the team does and how much we like/dislike the Steelers skill position players for fantasy.
My best guess is they are going to trot out Haskins and claim he's developed. If that happens then we bail on everything Pittsburgh related for fantasy. No Najee, no Diontae, no Claypool, no Freiermuth. Haskins will turn this team from an average group into one of the league's worst in a heartbeat.
If they somehow manage to find a decent QB (doubtful), then we can reconsider. But that could change the dynamic here massively. Diontae was Ben's boy. With Ben gone I don't think we can count on Diontae keeping up his scoring without the ridiculous volume he was being fed.
But perhaps it would be better for Claypool? If he gets a guy that can actually hit him accurately on these deep shots he might suddenly become a viable option again.
The safest bet right now though is to fade them all. I don't like Tomlin's personnel management, the game plans, any of it. This has disaster written all over it, and RC has seen it coming for the past 2-3 years. 2022 might be the final collapse of the Steelers for a while.
Fantasy Notes
--Najee Harris (28-188-1) finally had himself a good game on the ground against a dying Cleveland defense and honestly this was the best he's looked all year.
Why? Because the Steelers finally were able to open up some holes and let him run downhill. When he can do that Harris is as good as any RB in the league. He's fast enough straight ahead and is a bully with a full head of steam. His issue most of the year was there were no holes to run through and he was trying to jump cut away from danger. He's just not agile enough to do that.
We know he's going to be the center of the offense again, and if the offensive line gets some help he might live up to his draft position in 2022. But there is still the looming question of who his QB will be. If it's Haskins I think you have to avoid Najee because the scoring opportunities will be few and far between and he won't get the same volume in the passing game.
Someone else and things might not be so bad. Think of the difference between 2020 James Robinson and 2021 James Robinson. The only thing that changed was a worse QB was brought in this year, and the offense went from bad to league worst. That's the fear with Pittsburgh next year.
Just because he splashed as a rookie does not mean he's a slam dunk every year forever. Just ask Saquon. Surroundings are just as important, or even more so, than talent.
--I have the same issues with Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool next year as we've already discussed. Will the volume be the same? Because that's the only thing holding them up right now, and Claypool has even fallen even/behind Ray-Ray McCloud in the offense for the moment.
He might work his way out of that role by 2022, but it's no guarantee. Love the talent, hate this situation.
--Ditto everything said above for Donovan Peoples-Jones. I see a #1 WR caliber talent with DPJ, but the only thing keeping him afloat was Baker. New QB means the targeting could change, and Cleveland is likely to bring in new receivers next year. Will DPJ remain the top guy with some hotshot rookie coming to town? Hard to bet on that. DPJ is worth a speculative stash cheaply, but I'm not expecting much to come of it.
--What to do with Nick Chubb? He's one of the best pure talents at RB in the entire league, but with a run-heavy head coach and one of the supposed best offensive lines in football, Chubb somehow was a disappointment this year. There's really nothing you can do but hold and pray for a bounce back. He's too talented not to.
IDP Notes
--Grant Delpit has tallied 28 total tackles over his last three games after being elevated to playing basically every snap. He could be a big breakout at safety in 2022 fantasy. Wasn't super impressed with his play here, but you can't fault the stat trends.
Snap Counts of Interest
72 = Diontae
71 = Claypool
53 = McCloud
64 = DPJ
50 = Landry
41 = Higgins
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Titans 34, Dolphins 3 (By Ross Jacobs)
The Titans thumped the Dolphins here obviously, but I do have a couple of narratives to bust after watching this game.
Clearly the Dolphins recent success was more schedule-based than anything. It's much easier to look like a good team when you're playing the worst 2 or 3 teams in the league every week. But I have to admit that this wasn't quite as big a beatdown as the score would indicate. The Titans scored 10 points in the final 10 minutes off of turnovers as the Dolphins flailed away trying to mount a comeback. Before that Tennessee was doing ok offensively but definitely weren't great.
Another factor here was the rain. It was coming down heavy and that greatly affected the gameplans of both teams. It was terrible for RC's BTO (baby throw offense) for Miami. It greatly helped Tennessee, however, because it forced them to do what they should have been doing for weeks...give D'Onta Foreman the ball like you would Derrick Henry. That worked out pretty well.
I don't think this was some big coming out party for the Tennessee defense though. They are ok, safe, disciplined, but they were getting run on early and their pass defense hasn't been good all year. Elijah Molden's emergence is helping though. We'll talk about him later. It seemed like just one of those games that lines up nicely. I want to see Tennessee stop a real offense before I get on board with them. The Chiefs and Bengals are a far cry from the Dolphins.
Tennessee is not a great team. They might not even be the best team in the AFC. But they are a solid, disciplined team that rarely beats themselves, and now they are getting back the engine of the offense. By all accounts it sounds like Henry is somehow healthy and ready to make a playoff run. If that's true then you have to think Tennessee are the favorites to make the Superbowl.
I can't stand the man, but I have to give Mike Vrabel some credit. He's the first former Belichick assistant to actually succeed in this league by copying his coach/boss. I'll have to think about it more, but Vrabel is on my short list for Coach of the Year.
This loss knocked Miami out of the playoffs. They'll still come out firing next week trying to beat the division rival Patriots and keep them from winning the division, but I don't think that's going to happen. New England is still hoping to win the division if the Bills somehow lose to the Jets, so they have everything to play for. I imagine we'll see a close game because Miami really isn't as bad as they looked here against the Titans, but I do expect the Patriots to find a way to win which would lock up mine and RC's under bet against the Dolphins.
Fantasy Notes
--Why didn't the Titans just give D'Onta Foreman the ball like this weeks ago? It's been there the whole time. He's not Derrick Henry but he does as good an impression as anyone in the league. The funny thing is he still was riding the bench on the first series like always. I have no idea why they always start with Hilliard but they do.
Foreman is headed back to the bench with Henry back obviously. He'll be a free agent this year, but I'll bet a dime to a dollar that nobody around the league signs him to be their starter. Henry returning for the playoffs is going to cost Foreman money because there's nothing like a successful playoff run to prove to GM's that you can play. Most likely he comes back to Tennessee on a cheap deal to be Henry's backup again.
--AJ Brown disappeared after his monster performance last week. It was a combination of the rain, Xavien Howard, and Tennessee building a big lead. Nothing wrong with Brown. He should be considered a WR1 from here on out, although a streaky one due to the offense and Tannehill's limitations. Getting Henry back will only help him.
--The craziest thing I'm walking away from this game thinking...the biggest reason the Miami offense got shut down is because Tennessee shut down the engine of their offense, Jaylen Waddle. How did they do this when Waddle has been a ppr monster tearing teams up with these underneath throws?
Elijah Molden is already one of the best slot corners in the league. He was all over Waddle and wiped him out with ease. Waddle finally caught a deep ball late in the game for 45 yards with another corner on him. Before that Molden only allowed him to catch 2 passes for a combined 2 yards. Molden is the better Tyrann Mathieu and we're just finishing up year one. Let's see how long it takes the media to figure out how good he is.
--Miami went with a split of Miles Gaskin and Duke Johnson here even though Johnson played far more snaps as a pass blocker. They both looked pretty good running the ball (which makes me worry about the Tennessee run defense) and might have run for more yards if Miami didn't get down so quickly. Johnson is the better of the two by a lot though and Miami knows it.
Neither guy will be starting here next year if I had to bet on it, but Johnson might stick as the 3rd down back. It was no secret that Miami wanted Najee Harris or Javonte Williams in the 2021 draft. They won't miss on drafting a high RB again. Brian Robinson or Isaiah Spiller will be wearing a Dolphins jersey next year, most likely Spiller since RC loves him and will hate this landing spot.
*RC NOTE: I will love this landing spot (hopefully)…because there will be no split role situation thrust upon Spiller because Gaskin or Duke are so good Flores ends up doing a/wasting time with a Javonte/Mel Gordon type thing. I want Spiller to go to a place where he rockets right to the main carries.
IDP Notes
--In the immortal words of Troy Aikman, I really like Christian Wilkins (10 tackles, 1 tfl). 82 tackles (5.1 per game) on the year for a DT is nuts. He's averaged 8 tackles a game over his last three games.
He isn't getting the huge sack numbers like Donald, but he's one of the best DT's in the game and I won't hear otherwise. There are other ways to impact the game than just getting sacks on defense and Wilkins does all those things well in addition to being a great leader. He'll get his recognition in due time.
--Tennessee has fully committed to Zach Cunningham now. He'll be the starter in the middle next year. I suspect David Long will be the other start and Rashaan Evans will rotate in. Jayon Brown is the odd man out for some reason. Personally I think he's the best of the bunch, but what do I know?
I don't care for Cunningham really. He's a run stopper but sucks in coverage. Long is a good player and who I would pair with Brown if it was my team. I bet he doesn't get nearly the same tackle counts next year with Cunningham in the fold though. Cunningham is Vrabel's boy and nothing will change that.
Snap Counts of Interest
41 = Foreman
15 = Hilliard
57 = Swaim
29 = Firkser
36 = Duke
15 = Gaskin
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Cardinals 25, Cowboys 22
This was a pretty high stakes game for a Week 17 affair…a lot on the line with two teams that at various points of the season were mentioned as Super Bowl sleepers and perhaps ‘best teams in the league?’ debates at one time.
Arizona came into this game reeling. The one-time (7-0) squad was (3-5) since their undefeated run ended on a miscommunication game-winning TD shot to A.J. Green, who turned the wrong way and cost the Cardinals a huge win over Green Bay…and they’ve been falling apart since.
Dallas came into the game winners of four in a row and already NFC East champs, now with a shot at a #1 seed.
This was going to be a statement game…a playoff-level affair, and the two teams didn’t play all that particularly well, but Arizona showed a level of fight/desperation and beat Dallas off the jump, racing out to a 22-7 lead going into the 4th-quarter, with Dallas spinning their wheels. But then the Cowboys made a 4th-quarter surge and closed the game to just 3 points with 4:42 remaining…but they couldn’t get another score to tie/win, and Arizona held on to win. It wasn’t pretty but Arizona got a much-needed win.
What this game said to me: These are two ‘pretender’ teams for the NFL playoffs. Better than the average NFL team, capable of winning games against good teams in-season, but as we get closer to crunch time…they’re both going to fail and are both threats to lose in the 1st-round of the playoffs, except they will probably be facing each other.
Neither of these teams are winning a title this season, and they should go into 2022 offseason with serious questions about their head coaches and the construct of their teams going forward, but they will likely just stand pat with this group and convince themselves (and the media will help them think it) that if they just didn’t have those key injuries in-season they would’ve been a #1 seed and they’re like one little thing away from being great.
The cold hard truth is…these teams are good but lacking. Their head coaches should be in serious question. Neither team is great or close to it. Dallas is closer to the great group than Arizona, but still ‘short’.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Kyler Murray (26-38 for 263 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 9-44-0) bounced back from his mini-slump to have a solid output game. You figured in a ‘big game’ against a hot Dallas D…it wasn’t a good setup for Kyler to turn things around, but he posted a good game…because he’s a really good QB.
But is he a great QB? I’m going to explore and debate that in the upcoming days/weeks on our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball (DOBB) platform. Many FFMers own Kyler in Dynasty, and we need to explore – where do we go from here? Is it going to get any better?
Kyler has been a top 3 Fantasy QB (4pts pass TD) the past two seasons. He finished #4 in PPG among QBs this FF-season, a blink away from #2. He’s been a good asset. Great ROI the past three years. Can we go higher? What does the future hold? We’ll examine it all on DOBB this offseason.
-- Kyler’s two TD passes were to Antoine Wesley (4-30-2/5) in this game. Is Wesley breaking out? Does he have an FF future? Maybe. His uprising comes from DeAndre Hopkins going down and pushing Wesley to a starting role…and the big 6’4” target has been Kyler’s bail out end zone look for the past several weeks – which is smart of Kyler to use the height advantage as needed. Outside of that, I don’t see any future star activity – just no longer a nobody.
In 2022, as it sits right now, I suspect the starting trio for Arizona will be: Hopkins-Wesley-Rondale…with Wesley in the A.J. Green/2021 role. Unless AJG is brought back (and he shouldn’t be, unless as a crafty #4 WR…which he won't wanna be), Wesley is in line for a starting role in 2022…but if he is it will probably be for Allen Lazard/GB 2020-2021 like activity…the lesser targeted deep ball guy who gets TDs but on 2-6 targets a game, randomly…unpredictable WR3-4 work.
There’s some FF-hope here with Wesley where there wasn’t a few months ago, but I’m not sure the ceiling is all that high.
-- There’s an Ezekiel Elliott (9-16-0, 1-14-0/2) crisis happening in Dallas.
The cover up story on it, to not embarrass Jerry for this wasted money big contract, and to defend a media beloved player anyway, will be that Zeke’s working with some secret injury. It’s possible, I guess.
However, Zeke has been practicing in full for weeks/months during his statistical collapse since Week 6 – where he’s been running well under 4.0 yards per carry, taking an ever-decreasing touch count (12.2 carries per game since Week 6), and starting to see decreased passing game targets. His snap counts have been about the same all year, but his performance is nose diving.
Dallas’s coaches/offense are moving away from Zeke a little bit at a time…like a boiling the frog theory. So slowly it’s not fully noticed. Whether it’s because of a secret injury or secretly his career/skills are fading off…something is happening but we’re such a Zeke-is-god centric FF culture, we don’t wanna see it.
Really since Elliott’s splash 2016, his numbers on a graph have been fading…showing him to be ‘good-not-great’, but we treat him like he is RB royalty. Dallas has a CAP issue with him, they have a media issue with him – he’s too costly to cut and the media props him up in the fans’ eyes. He’s a head fake. He should not be a 1st-round redraft RB in 2022, when you look back over his career trends since his rookie season…but he probably will be.
If you cut the season off now, so that Zeke has played 16 games (what we’re all used to for ‘a season’) – did you know he would now have his last two seasons under 1,000 yards rushing and barely above 4.0 yards per carry…with a good+ O-Line and QB most of that time, but missed them some of 2020 – but what good is he if he can’t produce in troubled times OR the good times anymore? Elijah Mitchell is a better producer right off the bat, as a 6th-round rookie RB, than Elliott today. And that’s just one example.
-- The Arizona secondary is all banged up and has been getting smoked the past few weeks, but then facing the great Dak and his all-star WRs…CeeDee Lamb (3-51-0/4) is nothing (again), and Amari Cooper’s (3-18-1/7) disappearing act continued.
Michael Gallup (3-36-1/4) was becoming this team’s best WR…but then he tore his ACL and Cedrick Wilson (6-35-1/6) entered and was Dallas’s best WR.
What is going on in Dallas?
Pollard is better than Elliott.
Gallup-Wilson-Brown are better than Amari and CeeDee.
I can’t say that out loud because the Cult of CeeDee media and fans won’t be having it.
-- Chase Edmonds (18-53-0, 5-29-0/6) got an opportunity to start again with James Conner out, and he had another ho-hum performance. He’s a much better RB as part of a duo, with Edmonds as the pass catcher. Edmonds has had several chances to seize this backfield and never capitalized on any of the chances.
A good+ pass catching back, a weapon in the passing game…not a lead back. Capable, in a pinch, but not going to lead a backfield for a season and take the punishment, stay healthy, and be a revelation.
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Zeke
19 = Pollard
62 = Edmonds
09 = Benjamin
08 = Jon Ward
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season early-signups start January 6th, 2022, NoonET**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Eagles 20, Washington 16 (By Ross Jacobs)
Up until now, the Eagles have been whipping lesser teams, but in the first half of this game Washington was doing the whipping. They were taking it to Philly, scoring on their first three possessions.The score was 16-7 Washington at the half, and it looked like the Eagles were going down.
The second half was a whole different story though as Philly grinded their way back into the game. They started to get more pressure on Heinicke, and the offense started pounding away on the ground. The Eagles would score 13 unanswered points to take the win, although Washington had one last shot with 2 minutes left but Heinicke was intercepted in the endzone to end it.
Washington played much better than they did two weeks ago, but it still wasn't enough. This Eagles team is just a really tough out right now. They are probably no real threat to win the Superbowl, but I wouldn't want my team playing them either.
Fantasy Notes
--Funny how we don't hear any more criticism of Jalen Hurts now that he's in the playoffs. RC and I have said it all year: he's as good or better than Lamar Jackson and the numbers back it up. We don't need the numbers to see what's been right in front of our faces this entire time.
But don't let that distract you from the fact that the second Hurts has a bump in the road or loses in the first round of the playoffs or has a multi-turnover game, the media is going to be calling for his head all over again. It won't even take that. Once the off-season begins and Deshaun Watson is available to trade for, they'll try to replace Hurts with him.
You see it happen over and over again. The media chooses who they like before the draft, and nothing will ever change their minds. They got Goff replaced. They are about to get Mayfield replaced. They'll get Hurts replaced someday. It might take a few years, but it will happen.
For 2022 though, Hurts is the guy. There's no doubt about that. He's bought himself another year at least. And he's still a QB1 all day long, especially in 4-pt passing TD leagues.
--I can't say the same for Taylor Heinicke. He hasn't been awful this year, but it's clear he's just backup material. If Ryan Fitzpatrick comes back healthy he'll start over Heinicke at least, and there's a good chance we'll see a rookie QB brought in to compete as well.
--I can already tell you one of my favorite value picks in 2022 drafts is going to be Devonta Smith. He's 100% going to be undervalued because his rookie year wasn't as statistically productive as Ja'Marr Chase or Jaylen Waddle and he's playing with a lower volume passer in Hurts.
I don't care about those things at all. Devonta is the best talent of the three, and having a low volume can be an impediment, but it's not a guarantee. Look at Deebo and Garoppolo this year. If you dominate targets and are efficient with them, you can still put up huge numbers even in weaker passing games.
Devonta is too good, and just like Chase with Burrow, he's got his college teammate throwing him the ball. You think that connection isn't going to grow? Hurts has been looking for Smith more and more the past few games. By next year Smith is going to be “the guy.” I'm buying every share of Devonta I can find.
--Jaret Patterson got his crack at the starting job and proved himself capable. He's not a star or a future starting RB, but he belongs on the field in part of a rotation. He's a small guy and not very fast, but he runs smart and tough. He'll likely be the Antonio Gibson backup again next year and when Gibson inevitably gets hurt again Patterson will take over and produce nicely.
--Rookie TE John Bates has been trending up in snap counts over Ricky Seals-Jones the past few weeks, and when RSJ got hurt after colliding with a cameraman on the sidelines, it just opened things up even more for Bates.
Like Patterson, I think he's capable, a role player. I don't see any star potential here, but he can be a rotational pass catcher. Also like Patterson I think he probably starts next season as a backup to Logan Thomas.
--Have we seen the last of Miles Sanders after his latest injury? No, probably not. But I do think we've seen the last of his days as a “feature” RB. He's just not reliable and the offense works as good or better with Boston Scott as the lead.
Sanders likely comes back for his last year in Philly, but I bet it's as the “lead” of a rotation. My guess is he gets reduced to 8-9 carries a game and maybe a catch or two as the Eagles just go full RBBC. He'll get hurt again mid-season, but then come back the last 4-5 games and suddenly go on a tear after every other RB gets hurt, and some sucker like Jacksonville will pay him $10 million to be their starter in 2023. That's how these things always go...
--Dallas Goedert is finally going to be in the conversation as a top 5 TE next year now that Ertz is out of his way. He and Hurts have shown a really good and growing connection, and of course Goedert has always been one of the most physically gifted TE's in the league. I think next year we'll be debating Kelce, Kittle, and Andrews as the top 3 and Waller, Goedert, and Schultz in the next group.
--Don't look now but Cam Sims was back on the field and looking pretty darn good again just like he did late last year. Could he finally take a step forward and become a full starter next year? Maybe. I'd bet against it though but not because he can't play.
McLaurin is the star here. The team paid good money to Curtis Samuel so he'll get a chance to get healthy. They also drafted Dyami Brown and will force him out there no matter how awful he is. Where does Sims fit into that puzzle?
At best he's likely a bit-player IF he comes back. My guess is he gets a small one year contract to go somewhere else and try to carve out a larger role.
IDP Notes
--Josh Sweat (5 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 pd) has been on a statistical tear lately. He has a combined 4 sacks in his last 4 games, albeit against the Jets, Giants, and twice against Washington. 7 of his 7.5 sacks on the year have come against those three teams plus Detroit and Carolina...not exactly a bastion of great offensive lines.
I don't see anything worth talking about with him. He's a pure speed rusher only. Sometimes he gets a good jump and blows past weaker blockers, but most of the time he gets engulfed and is completely useless. Reminds me of a Bruce Irvin type rusher.
--1st round Washington LB Jamin Davis has been a massive disappointment this year. He's battled injuries and ineffectiveness and has only 68 tackles on the year. I don't remember ever seeing him stand out this year, but he's clearly got the physical skills to become a good player.
Maybe he just needs another year or two of seasoning. If he can get healthy I could see him growing into a very good player eventually. He's not a player I would casually write off as a bust so quickly. I have a feeling we haven't heard the last of Davis...
Snap Counts of Interest
60 = McLaurin
47 = Sims
33 = Humphries
22 = Carter
39 = Patterson
16 = Smallwood
58 = Devonta
31 = Reagor
31 = Watkins
32 = Scott
21 = Howard
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Raiders 23, Colts 20
My line of thinking walking away from this game rewatch…
1) Coming into this week/game, I thought the Colts are a really good football team…just having whooped New England and Arizona in recent weeks, winners of six of their last 7 games and eight of their last 10.
2) Going into this week/game, I would say that the Colts are one of the best 10 teams in the NFL…more in the #6-10 range. But still…a very good NFL team.
3) The Raiders, I would classify going in, are a ‘mediocre’ team. You never know what version you’ll get any particular week.
4) The Raiders went to Indianapolis this game and immediately punched the Colts in the mouth…a 10-0 Raiders early 2nd-quarter lead.
5) The Colts came back from the 10-0 deficit to take back the lead 17-13 at the end of three quarters…but it was A LOT of luck doing so. Fluke penalties. Am Indy bomb TD that should’ve been a pick, but guys ran into each other to get it and the ball caromed off their hands and right backwards to a Colts WR standing in the end zone.
6) Despite the bad luck, the Raiders regathered themselves and took back the lead…and eventually the win.
7) The Raiders are a better team than the Colts. They might play a hundred times and it be 55-45 Raiders. It’s not that the Raiders are a thousand times better – but I walk away from this game looking back over their seasons and see the Raiders as the lesser overall talented group, but the grittier junkyard dog group that you’d bet on in a street fight.
8) The Colts are too finesse, too SAWFT to really go far in the playoffs…but they’re good, they can hang…but they are not killers/streetfighters.
I go through all my logic above to say, I’ll take the Raiders (9-7) to upset the Chargers (9-7) Week 18 and thus make it the playoffs. The Chargers are SAWFTer than the Colts are. The Raiders have won four of their last 6 games and really should be five of their last 6 (but are lucky they aren’t 3-3 in that span either).
The Colts (9-7) should…should beat Jacksonville and get to the wild card as well, which would leave them the #7 seed with LV just getting the seeding tiebreaker over them.
Neither Vegas nor Indy are going very far in the playoffs, but if they both lose 1st-round…it will feel like a huge accomplishment for Vegas anyway, and should get the interim head coach hired as the real head coach (he deserves it)…but for the Colts it will feel like a big letdown season.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Nothing FF-earth shattering, or game changing happened/caught my attention here with any of the players involved, except one situation – Zay Jones (8-120-0/10) has become a real thing.
The past 6 weeks = 5.5 rec., 57.2 yards, 0.0 TDs per game
The past 3 weeks = 6.7 rec., 70.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game
Zay Jones has become a real WR, again, in the NFL…five NFL seasons and three teams later.
In 2017, Zay Jones and Cooper Kupp battled for our top-rated WR prospect from that draft class. You think Kupp had a decorated career at Eastern Washington? Zay Jones was also a college mega star at East Carolina.
Jones was the 4th WR taken in the 2017 NFL Draft, #37 overall by Buffalo. Jones had a 56 catch, 653 yards, 7 TD season his 2nd NFL season, doing so with a hodgepodge of bad QBs led mostly by rookie, wildly erratic Josh Allen. Buffalo threw for all of 14 TD passes in 2017…Zay caught half of them.
Zay then had some mental health issues in 2019, got cut by Buffalo and scooped up by the Raiders where he has been rehabbing his career and now he’s just starting to hit a stride.
…just in time for his 2022 free agency.
Zay is back from the dead and will be rising up the Dynasty Stash board on the next/final publishing.
Zay’s rise has coincided with Bryan Edwards’s (0-0-0/2) demise. Carr prefers Zay over Edwards, by a mile…and Zay is getting on par with Hunter Renfrow (7-76-1/9) as an option week-to-week.
If the Raiders re-sign Zay Jones, then this is something to watch in 2022…Zay as Carr’s quasi-Davante Adams like WR throw. Yeah, I said it. Not saying Zay will be a god in FF 2022, or any year…but am wanting to highlight that his FF/Dynasty valuation is stirring here – he was a highly rated prospect coming into the league, he’s not a nobody.
If Zay takes the money and goes elsewhere, then I’m not as FF-excited – the continuity with Carr (and Rich Bisaccia) is the FF-key here to 2022 value.
-- Zay Jones is filling the void Darren Waller left behind. I didn’t think he would, by so much, so I’d been pushing Foster Moreau (1-9-0/1) as a nice option to get more work/targets in Waller’s stead. My bad…that didn’t happen, at all. Zay was the Waller-gone play…I just didn’t want to believe it.
If Waller is back Week 18…I’m not sure it’s a big switch off from Zay-Renfrow being established recently.
-- Back last offseason, how many people were like…”OOH, Carson Wentz to the Colts with Frank Reich, where he will have his career resurrected like Reich did for Nick Foles and Wentz could be a QB1 threat with this Colts offense!”
First off, not true…it was Foles who made Reich, and got Philly a Super Bowl they didn’t deserve – and then was thrown out with the trash for it after.
Secondly: Carson Wentz (16-27 for 148 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) finished the FF season (Wks 1-17) as the #17 PPG (4pts pass TD) QB in Fantasy. Not a QB1.
Derek Carr (24-31 for 255 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) winds up #15.
Can’t wait to hear/see all the 2022 offseason analysis of…”Well, imagine Wentz when he’s in Year Two of this Frank Reich offense!”
I won’t be imagining it.
Wentz has never been as good as Nick Foles…and isn’t today either.
-- Seven games in a row, and counting, since Michael Pittman (6-47-0/6) last scored a TD. His numbers have steadily declined as the season has gone on…in part, because the Colts have garbage for all their other pass game weapons and Pittman gets doubled and tripled a lot.
Week 18 vs. JAX could finally be where Pittman breaks the goal line again. He caught a pass here for what looked like a score…but was tackled a few feet short.
-- Divine Diablo (9 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD) has started the past four games, played heavily in the last 5 games. In that span, he has hit 9 or more tackles in a game three times…7.0 total tackles per game in that span. He’s transitioning from SAF to LB pretty well.
-- Let’s all give a round of applause to Daniel Carlson (3/3 FGs, 2/2 XPs)…the most FFM-owned kicker to end the season. Most of us started with Matt Gay, but then around the Gay bye week we saw switches off to Gano/Carlson then a sharp move to Carlson to the finish.
I don’t talk kicker scouting a ton, because people don’t care that much to hear it, but I pushed Carlson for years/right out of the gates…he was a special case. And I’m so glad he’s having this career year as Mike Zimmer is going to get fired.
It was Zimmer/Minnesota who drafted Carlson, highly, in 2018…the nation’s top kicker. Zimmer then got pissy about some misses in a preseason game and Zim dumped him before the regular season. It was then Ass’t Head Coach/Special Teams guru, now Raiders interim head coach, Rich Bisaccia who quickly scooped Carlson up for LV/away from the rest of the league.
So, on behalf of Daniel Carlson, who is one the best human beings in the NFL…and now one of the best kickers...I give Mike Zimmer a giant middle finger on his way to his non-playoff-going-ass being fired next week.
Carlson is currently tied for the league lead in FGs made in the NFL and ended up tied for #2 in FF PK PPG behind #1 Nick Folk.
FFM leaves no stone unturned. Matt Gay…Evan McPherson…Daniel Carlson…I know kickers pretty well too. Is there anything I’m not great at in football scouting? It’s just that I just can’t pick football game outcomes against the spread any different than flipping coins – but I know player talent when I see it/sense it or the computer identifies them for me.
CFM 2022 early sign-ups are taking place right now. We need your support so I can not get a real job (for more money and less hours) and rather spend 70+ hours a week scouting football players/things every day, all year...including kickers.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Pittman
36 = Hilton
34 = Pascal
33 = Alie-Cox
22 = Doyle
48 = Zay J
46 = Bry Edw
43 = Renfrow
16 = DJax
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season early-signups start January 6th, 2022, NoonET**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Bengals 34, Chiefs 31
Rewatching this was a treat.
Heck, watching it live was a treat. One of the best games of the 2021 season to watch, for me…as a fan of such things. I called for the upset. I thought this could be the moment where the Bengals showed they are the better team than the Chiefs in the AFC…possibly the Bengals proving they are the best team in the entire AFC.
Rewatching this game quickly reminded me of a reality that I had forgotten since the live watch -- the fact that the Chiefs took a 14-0 lead in this game right away. Think of the gravity of what the Bengals just did…in a critical game for both sides, a possible coming of age moment for Cincy…one where you knew the Chiefs would use their experience and just manhandle the Bengals…the gravity, the reality of the Bengals dropping down 14 points right away and the football world that predicted ‘this’ would happen, and now it was happening – and then the Bengals took those initial punches and grinded their way back to the lead…and the win.
It was not a fluky win…it was the Bengals doing what the Chiefs usually do – get down to an inferior opponent, and then hit the gas and get right back into the game and go on to win and everyone forgets they were down at the start. The Bengals are better than the Chiefs…now…and for the future. Why? Because Joe Burrow is better than Patrick Mahomes, and Andy Reid is not a secret ‘advantage’, at best he’s a non-factor…at worst he’s holding this whole thing back from the heights it should go.
How dominant/great is Aaron Rodgers? He won a Super Bowl in 2010 and hasn’t been back since. He’s (7-8) in the playoffs since.
Same question/statement on Drew Brees, only he won his in 2009…and never went back. He’s (5-7) in the playoffs since the title season.
Ditto Ben Roethlisberger winning the title in the 2008 season…he’s (5-8) in the playoffs since the 2008 title season.
It’s very possible for great QBs to get their Super Bowl win early in their career, and then never return for a decade+. And it’s not because the QB suddenly isn’t very good. They play great for a decade – it’s the coaching and personnel around them that holds them back, to a degree.
Tom Brady isn’t the raw talent Rodgers is/was…but he always gets to the Super Bowl (and is (34-11 in the playoffs in his career). Joe Burrow is our closest ‘next Brady’. This game/win wasn’t a blip…it was an insurrection. The Bengals have pushed their way past the Chiefs in the AFC…now, and for the foreseeable future.
The Chiefs still have a chance at the #1 seed in the AFC, but they probably will fall short behind Tennessee…likely to face the Chargers/Raiders or Colts, either of which could beat them in the 1st-round.
The Bengals still have a chance at the #1 seed, but it would involve both Tennessee and KC losing, so not likely happening. Cincy will be the dangerous #3 seed and could meet the Chiefs again in the 2nd-round of the playoffs. In a rematch, everyone will assume the Chiefs will not be caught unaware and that their experience will take over for the young Bengals and defeat them…just like they thought would happen in this game. I’ll take the Bengals in a rematch, even if at KC. The Bengals are the tougher team with the better QB.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The biggest takeaway note for me from this game was the contrast of Ja’Marr Chase (11-266-3/12) and Tyreek Hill (6-40-0/10).
Let me set some ground rule statements before I make a sweeping reactionary comment…
1) I was against (scouting-wise) Ja’Marr Chase ever being a real NFL star. I thought he was an OK/good WR talent, a great athlete with question marks – my take as a scout pre-NFL Draft. And I thought he’d be a bit lost in the WR shuffle/mix for the Bengals post-NFL Draft…a random WR3 type player not a WR1 star.
2) I have watched Chase closely from the preseason on, a fascinating scouting dilemma…I, on one side saying he’s OK/good…with the entire football community on the other side of the scouting debate (as is often the case) saying he’s generational. Actually, there was no debate…there never is in the NFL…everyone believes the same, and when I’m opposite all of them, I’m just written off as ‘a nut’ or a ‘football nerd’…someone trying to be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.
People believe in the media’s lockstep football analysis more seriously, more fervently than they do the tenets of their own religion/belief system – and that’s a fact.
Watching Chase this entire year, I’m still not fully swayed that he is a ‘generational’ WR talent…but he is good, worthy, etc. He had the same numbers as Deebo Samuel this season (Deebo better all-around)…and we’re not all running around calling Deebo ‘generational’. Big production doesn’t necessarily mean ‘generational’. However, I can agree – he’s gifted, and my scouting undersold/undervalued him…especially his fit with Cincy.
Whether I’m right or wrong about Chase’s abilities, as things played out, we can all agree…he produced big-time numbers in 2021 and there’s no reason to think he won’t do so ahead.
3) I don’t think Ja’Marr Chase will ever be the overall weapon/talent that Tyreek Hill is. Tyreek is ‘special’, the once in a generation/lifetime that I’ve seen. Ja’Marr Chase, by contrast, is just really good/dangerous…he’s not Tyreek-like.
With all that said, I just watched Ja’Marr Chase get 12 targets all over the field…passes thrown to him whether he was covered or not. At the same time, on the other side of the field, I watched Tyreek Hill as a mostly decoy again getting non-exciting targets while KC ran several ‘tight end as wildcat’ plays, because they are super clever.
One of Tyreek-Ja’Marr had 2-3-6x the output of the other…the same guy who was on the winning team, and whose QB desperately went to him multiple times when the game was on the line. While the other guy was ‘taken away’…again.
What good does it do me to FF-possess the more talented guy via some esoteric, nuanced scouting of his abilities…while he is ‘taken out’ by the opposing team and/or ‘used as a decoy’ by some dunce HC/O-C? Why wouldn’t I rather have the lesser pretty piece of art who wasn’t used as a decoy and who wasn’t taken out by his opposing defense…and he has the better QB talent to work with, or just as good worst case…and who is seven years younger (for Dynasty purposes)?
Won’t the Chiefs have the same system, coaches, QB, scheme, etc., in 2022? Ditto Cincinnati? How will Tyreek go higher in production in 2022+?
We’ll be debating the Tyreek short- and long-term valuation questions over at the Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball (DOBB) area of FFM in the upcoming weeks.
-- We also got to watch Joe Burrow (30-39 for 446 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) crush Patrick Mahomes (26-35 for 259 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 2-25-0). Couple thoughts on this…
1) Mahomes ended up besting Burrow by 1+ FF PPG (4pts per pass TD) for the season 21.8 to 20.5 PPG.
However, since Week 3, Burrow scored 21.2 FF PPG to Mahomes’s 20.7.
2) I keep saying Burrow is better/equal to Mahomes as a talent, but that Mahomes is the better FF option. But is he? What if Burrow just needed time to get recovered trusting from his major leg injury last season?
3) Remember this summer when reports were that Burrow was very inaccurate and very hesitant/aware of his legs/knees in training camp? Guess he’s all better now?
4) The value of the FF QB is dropping, going forward…if Burrow is joining the party. It was Mahomes-Allen-Herbert-Kyler as the FF elites in the preseason, for us. Those four, plus…
…Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers won’t go away. Four plus these two…
And Burrow makes seven high end options.
Notice what that group of seven has in common? Since Week 3, they make up seven of the top 8 FF PPG 4pts per) QBs in Fantasy. Jalen Hurts is the outsider that was in the top 8 party (#6). Also, of the seven QBs we are focused on here – none of them are really runners, except Kyler can run a little bit but it’s not his lead punch (like Hurts, Lamar, etc.)
Again, QB valuation in this new FF world of QB talent flooding the NFL from college…big topic to debate this offseason.
Additional note…
Burrow has Higgins-Chase-Boyd to work with.
Mahomes has Tyreek…then DeMarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle.
When are people going to start slamming the ineptness, the ruined opportunity by KC management to surround Mahomes with ‘things’? Aaron Rodgers always had a point with his disdain for the way Green Bay staffed around him. Is Mahomes the next to cry out? He should be.
-- Is Darrel Williams (14-88-2, 3-19-0/3) the RB to own for the Chiefs?
I know he is now/Week 18, with CEH hurt, but won’t the Chiefs likely ‘stand pat’ at RB going into 2022 season?
CEH + Williams, and Derrick Gore? We’ll see…Darrel is an unrestricted free agent, but I bet he’ll stay with KC. CEH has to stay, which means the Chiefs won’t draft a real RB threat.
If the Chiefs re-sign Williams…won’t that be a pretty powerful statement on where they stand with CEH?
Just wondering…
More things to interpret his offseason for the Chiefs, for Dynasty/Fantasy…
-- Is Travis Kelce (5-25-1/7) starting the downslide on his career? Not that he will be bad in 2022, but that he’s just another good TE, not the elite TE anymore? He finishes the 2021 season as the #3 PPG PPR TE. He’ll be 33 years old in the 2022 season.
The king has been knocked off his throne.
Speaking of all things Cincy are better than all things Chiefs, all of a sudden… I wonder what the projections would be like if the Bengals draft/sign a serious receiving threat TE into the mix for 2022+? Like what if Evan Engram winds up here? Just daydreaming up things…
C.J. Uzomah (4-32-0/6) doesn’t cut it and is a free agent in 2022.
-- Lost in all the Ja’Marr explosions in this game was Tee Higgins (3-62-0/5), the WR who was previously wrecking everything on the stat sheets in recent weeks.
Since Week 10, in PPR, Ja’Marr Chase is the #5 PPG WR in Fantasy. #6 is…Tee Higgins.
Before this game, for the season, on a PPG basis, Chase was the #10 PPR PPG WR in Fantasy. Higgins 0.1 PPG behind him at #11.
Yet, the difference in love/perception/media between Ja’Marr and Tee is a huge chasm…creating a value in pursuing Higgins in 2022.
-- Another way the Bengals are better than the Chiefs is…their defense. And the Bengals rebuilt their defense from hot garbage in 2020 to really good in 2021, and all due to ‘via free agency’. The CB duo of Chidobe Awuzie (10 tackles) and Mike Hilton (5 tackles, 1 PD) have been really, really good. Trey Hendrickson (0 tackles, 2 QB hits) has been better than expected as a stud pass rusher.
All three of those players were on other teams last season.
The Bengals are 1-2 offensive lineman away from being the best all-around team in football.
…led by a coach (Zac Taylor) who shouldn’t have ever been hired as a head coach, but no one really wanted this job/to work with the Bengals. But possessing Joe Burrow and staying out of his way is the best coaching attribute anyone could have. Just ask Ed Orgeron and Joe Brady.
FYI, Urban Meyer didn’t see much in Joe Burrow at Ohio State…
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Chase
58 = Higgins
54 = Boyd
07 = Stanley Morgan
49 = Darr Williams
08 = D Gore
52 = Tyreek
39 = Dem Robinson
29 = Pringle
19 = Hardman
12 = J Gordon
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season early-signups start January 6th, 2022, NoonET**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Chargers 34, Broncos 13 (By Ross Jacobs)
While the Chargers were definitely the better team here and led comfortably for most of the game, it really wasn't as big a blowout as the score would indicate. LAC got a kickoff return TD and then a bomb to Mike Williams in the 4th quarter to finish the rout.
LA has been a perplexing team this year. At times they look like they are ready to take that next step and become an AFC power, and then the next week they'll lay an egg against a weaker opponent. I don't think this beatdown of a dying Denver team is a sign that they are ready to make some noise in the playoffs.
Obviously Herbert is good enough on his own to beat anyone, but I still don't see the consistency or firepower I want to from this offense. Just one example is the baffling treatment of Mike Williams this year. He should be a much bigger part of this offense. You saw it on full display with his 45 yard TD here. And yet they inexplicably ignore him for chunks of time.
I do think the Chargers should beat the Raiders next week to make the playoffs, but it's not guaranteed by any means. LV is good enough to beat them for sure. If they win they likely draw the Chiefs in the 1st round of the playoffs. It's a matchup they can definitely win as they've already beaten KC once and competed well the second time. They aren't afraid of the Chiefs anymore.
The Broncos dropped out of the playoff race with this loss, but have a chance to screw a division rival next week if they could somehow beat the Chiefs and knock them into the 4th seed. Probably won't happen.
They'll head into 2022 looking for a new QB and possibly a new head coach.
Fantasy Player Notes
--The most irritating thing from this game had to be the Javonte Williams dud. It certainly contributed to my championship loss and likely many FFM'ers too.
So what happened? How was Houston able to run all over the Chargers but Williams and the Broncos couldn't?
It's a multifaceted answer. The first thing is that Pat Shurmur is one of the worst offensive coordinators in the league. Denver should have been able to run the ball easily, and at times they did. But for whatever reason Shurmur decided this would be a good week to attack the Chargers through the air into the strength of their defense, all while having a godawful pass blocking offensive line trying to protect Drew Lock and half the receivers out for the week. Great idea.
He finally figured out he should run the ball but not until later in the when they were already down and LA was teeing off on the run.
Another part of it was Denver was trying to run zone blocking and that clearly wasn't working as the Chargers were crashing defenders off the edge. I think the way to attack this run defense is with power runs straight up the gut. Another great job by Shurmur not knowing how to exploit a weakness even with an entire year's worth of film.
The third part was that the defense was clearly much more worried about Javonte than Gordon. They would stack the line when he was in. When Gordon was lined up in the backfield they didn't particularly care.
And the final part is that Javonte got many more short yardage carries than Gordon. They were counting on him to pick up 3rd and 4th downs and he did, but it hampered his averages.
I don't believe the LAC run defense has been fixed. In fact, I'd venture to say that Josh Jacobs is a top 3 back against them this week if you happen to have him.
--I believe Drew Lock (18-25 for 245 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) should get another crack at the starting job next year. He played well here and the surrounding circumstances were not in his favor.
With a piss poor offensive line, no WR's, and throwing into one of the better pass defenses in the league, Lock did about as well as could be expected. He was under siege all day, constantly had pressure in his face, and yet he still completed 72% of his passes and threw a TD.
I'm standing by my statement that he looks like Josh Allen-lite. That's pretty darn good, but I don't believe Denver will give him another try next year. They already made up their minds about him when they brought in Bridgewater. He'll still be on the roster because he's signed through 2023, but most likely they'll try to trade for a star QB this off-season and Lock will never see the field.
IF Lock gets a chance somehow, and if they can improve the offensive line, I think he has a chance to be a shock QB1 next year...
--Noah Fant (6-92-1/7) gave us all a reminder here of how good he can be. He's got as much upside and talent as any TE in the league, right up there with Kelce, Andrews, Kittle, and Pitts.
His catch and run here through the middle of the Chargers defense was a subtle work of art. It's easy to forget how big he is when he moves that smoothly and gracefully. I think it even caught the Chargers defense off guard because 4 or 5 of them all kind of paused for a second thinking someone would tackle him, but Fant just raced right through the middle of a crowd like they weren't even there.
Most of Fant's stats came in the final quarter as Lock realized nobody on the defense could cover him. If he had been throwing it to Fant the whole game, Fant might have had 150+ yards. It's a sign of what could be possible next year under the right circumstances...
--Tre McKitty (3-22-0/3) got some extended time with Cook and Parham out. He was still playing behind Stephen Anderson but that won't last long. It's the first halfway decent look we've got at McKitty, but small sample size so it's hard to draw conclusions.
I'd say he looks serviceable. He can play. I'd probably lump him in with Tommy Tremble from the 2021 class. Nowhere near Pitts and a bit behind Freiermuth as a talent, but not as much as you might think. He could probably work his way into the TE1 conversation someday courtesy of Justin Herbert.
IDP Notes
--Jonas Griffith (12 tackles) did it again. It's beyond obvious now that he can play. He's not super impressive to watch, but he just finds his way to the ball. I always compare him to Azeez Al-Shaair for that reason, and both guys have grown on me the more I've watched them, but of the two I actually like Griffith better.
He's forced Denver to consider him at LB in 2022. There are still lots of good LB's on this roster, but between his level of play and the very real possibility that a new coaching staff will be in place next year, Griffith very well might be a starter next fall. A new staff would be beneficial to him because they shouldn't care about who was drafted where and will play the better players. That would be Griffith at LB.
Snap Counts of Interest
52 = Sutton
43 = Seth Williams
36 = Kendall Hinton
53 = Fant
30 = Okwuegbunam
30 = Javonte
30 = Gordon
56 = Big Mike
49 = Allen
32 = Guyton
31 = Palmer
52 = Anderson
35 = McKitty
39 = Ekeler
25 = Jackson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: 49ers 23, Texans 7
The Texans led this game 7-3 at the half. The Texans were only down 10-7 after three quarters. The simple truth is – the 49ers are really not that much better than the Texans-type teams. SF is an OK team that is capable of hanging with the big boys as much as they scuffle with bottom tier teams. They just aren’t that good…they’re not bad…they’re just ‘not good’…not a real title contender.
As the 49ers were scuffling with the Texans, suddenly the refs started helping out like they all had a bet on SF here. There was a sequence of penalties that I won't waste time going over in detail, but they totally changed a series/the game – and on replay it was ridiculously obvious that they were not penalties…leaving the game TV analysts speechless. Within all that there was a San Fran fumble that was reversed for ‘runner progress stopped’ that was ridiculous. On top of that, the Texans would get phantom defensive PIs called on them, and the next series the 49ers DBs would maul the Houston WRs…and ‘no call’. It was maybe the worst officiated game I’ve seen this season…all against one team/for one team.
The 49ers then pulled away aided by their gifts, in the 4th-quarter, for a two score win. It should’ve been closer or a loss, actually.
The 49ers luckily move to (9-7) and are in a ‘win and in’ or ‘lose and probably out’ Week 18. They face the Rams, so it won’t be easy. I, personally, hope they lose and miss out. The Saints deserve it more than SF, to me.
Houston loses their two-game win streak and falls to (4-12) and they play in a huge game of national interest vs. TEN Week 18. The Titans win and they are the #1 seed, so I bet Houston goes all out to spoil this highly watched contest – but they’ll probably get mauled by the Titans.
*We’re gonna spend some extra time on Trey Lance in this report, and that will be at the end.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Elijah Mitchell (21-119-0, 2-11-1/2) returned from injury and came back and dominated the RB touches…as has happened before this season. Mitchell is so locked in as the #1 RB here…for 2021, and 2022+…for as long as Kyle Shanahan is there, and for as long as Mitchell can stay healthy.
Trey Sermon is not even a consideration, from the looks of things.
Mitchell is not flashy, but he has a knack for finding his way through and to holes…like what Jordan Howard does/has done his whole career. RBs who just have a sixth sense about where to run in the interior. Mitchell’s style needs a good O-Line to go with it, and he has that with SF.
-- One of my biggest regrets of the 2021 season was pushing to trade Deebo Samuel (7-19-0, 3-63-1/6) midseason because I didn’t think his hot streak could continue. But it has. I’m still befuddled how he’s done it, watching all the game tape of this season. Not that he’s bad, but he always found a way to score a TD about every week, even if just in the run game, and half of them seemed like blind luck/good fortune. 13 TDs this season for Deebo.
I am not dying from any Deebo trades, as we mostly traded him for good things…but things acquired probably not as hot as Deebo stayed, perhaps.
And, I don’t wanna beat myself up too bad – we were the ones pushing Deebo over Brandon Aiyuk (4-94-0/6) in the preseason when NO ONE else (I saw) was doing that in FF rankings preseason. I was only able to trade Deebo, if I did, midseason because…I got him…cheap in the preseason.
I still don’t think he keeps this up into 2022, but...
-- A few IDP notes…
Speaking of scouting pride, how about Houston rookie DT Roy Lopez (5 tackles, a season high) this season? One of our DEEP sleeper finds in the 2021 NFL Draft scouting process, or #3 DT for the 2021 Draft…barely in anyone’s top 300 for the NFL Draft – and he is rolling top 10 in total tackles among all DTs this season to date. Quite a feat for a non-hyped rookie.
Another CFM fave is coming back to life…SF reclamation project edge rusher Jordan Willis (1 tackles, 1 sack) has 3.0 sacks in his last 5 games. He has yet to have an NFL season with more than 2.5 sacks until he landed in SF and started making a difference. He looks pretty decent off the edge as a situational pass rusher.
A CFM ‘hate’ pass rusher, nationally acclaimed in the draft, Arden Key (1 tackle, 1 sack) is also having the 49ers do a reclamation project with him as well. 6.0 sacks this season, after three years bouncing around the NFL prior, with 3.0 total sacks to show for it. Still not a fan.
-- OK, Trey Lance (16-23 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 8-31-0)…
He had a good FF game…mostly worthy of the low-end QB1 label we applied to him for Week 17. I expected more, but I have to note…he had a sweet QB run TD in this game, called back for a BS penalty that later resulted in a San Fran FG…that rush TD would have put him in as a strong QB1 for the week.
But…how did Lance ‘look’ in his 2nd start, from a scouting perspective? Ross (a very pro-Lance scout) and I took to a chat after rewatching the game to compare notes. Here is a transcript of that chat…
RC: Ok, we got Trey Lance's 2nd start. This one (HOU) an easier opponent than when he faced red hot Arizona Week 5.
After watching the tape back of this HOU start, what are your general feelings on Lance at the moment -- highly encouraged/feel even better, feel about the same as before (pro-Lance as best in class rookie QB), or a little rattled by what you saw here?
Ross: I definitely don't feel better or encouraged. I thought there were some slight improvements, and you still see the occasional "wow!" throw, but by and large it was still a lot of pre-planned throws, bad decisions, and inaccurate passes. I know it's only been a year of practice so far, but I wanted to see more growth than this.
RC: I am in the same boat. Every time he makes a good play, he then makes a head scratcher to bring me back to worry.
RC: He's the ultimate...'whatever you want to see...you can see' player right now.
RC: You can see flashes of great...then flashes of 'he's never going to 'get it, is he?' moments still...too much.
Ross: Exactly. I knew he had flaws coming out. He clearly wasn't a ready product. But what had my hopes so high was his newness to the position and the idea that he could grow into being a real QB with time. But now we're a year in and I'm not seeing the rapid improvement I expected.
RC: Problems I see...
RC: (1) He still locks on to his first read.
RC: (2) When he runs, he gets tackled way too easy. He leaves so many 3rd & 1s/short, 4th & 1s/short for his size...it's strange.
RC: It's like he has a sixth-sense for not getting a first-down
Ross: I was going to mention that last part as well. He looks like Kaepernick! I expected more power from him. I knew I saw the raw speed and agility in college, but I may have been fooled about his size seeing him run over Div II defenders.
RC: He has the speed, and movement but when tacklers descend on him, it's like he pulls up and then that allows him to get hit and momentum goes backwards.
Ross: I wonder if Kyle told him to try to protect himself.
RC: Everything is still very jittery, but...the 'what if it becomes un-jittery' has to be taken very FF-seriously.
RC: I don’t think he got that message from Kyle or he'd slide more.
RC: I think he's surprised he isn’t running over people.
RC: He tries and then is blown dead on the spot or backwards.
Ross: He has to be taken seriously for fantasy regardless. At absolute worst he's still in the Taysom/Hurts category for fantasy as a QB1 just because of the running. But you're right that if he ever unlocks the real QB potential Josh Allen-style, he would be off the charts.
RC: Other crafty runners seem to find a crevasse or make a juke to not take the brunt of hits but find the extra momentum forward. He doesn't usually.
RC: I wondered, after watching the tape today, if Kyle Shanahan is having regrets about this.
Ross: I believe Kyle is. I think he's getting nervous that Lance isn't progressing faster.
Ross: There's a reason he keeps going back to Jimmy 100%. It's gotten so bad I'm starting to worry that they might not trade/cut Jimmy this off-season after all...
RC: Like FF owners, we talk ourselves into something from an emotion of the moment...and then we act on it like our lives depended upon it.
Like when you have an FF player you want to deal away because you hate them...you push the player to everyone and take the first deal that comes along reasonable. And if you see something in a player and get really into them and you want them -- you just grovel to the current owner offering more and more to get that player because you made your mind up, I must have this player, so you won't rest til you do it...and then you do all based on an emotional moment you had/witnessed.
RC: It's like Tyreek Hill Week 17 end/today…
RC: People who won titles this week despite Tyreek, are like...well, that was a bad week for targets but it's cool.
RC: But the people who lost titles with Tyreek doing nothing 2 weeks in a row -- he's been 'figured out' or he's 'in a bad spot with KC'...or the 'best days are behind him', and now these folks have made a mandate in their minds -- I MUST trade him this offseason (Dynasty) or vow never tr draft him again (redraft).
RC: Same Tyreek performance interpreted two diff ways, one way caused the MUST reaction to solve so you feel like you're doing something to fix the (perceived) problem.
RC: I wonder if Kyle watched some Kyler or Russ or whatever the past offseason and is like I NEED A MOBILE QB TOO, IMAGINE THE PLAYS I CAN DESIGN!!!
Ross: That's exactly what he did. I think it's been building for 2-3 years now but still the same result.
Ross: And Lance did show some nice passing ability in college to justify the hope. There's a reason he was the pick of Fields.
Ross: Over Fields
RC: And Kyle can't create/design cool plays because Lance is at his best flushed from the pocket and improvising.
RC: I think it was Lance over Fields because of a better meeting face-to-face impression. Lance controllable, polite. Fields a wild card, independent.
RC: Shanahan wants CONTROLLABLE.
RC: But his style is not controllable.
RC: But Shanny will try to
RC: If you're GB GM in February 2022, with the rosters/players the way we know them now, and the coaches are the same...and you are offered Lance for Rodgers...do you do it?
Ross: Straight up?
RC: Straight
Ross: I think that would depend a lot on the vibe I'm getting from Rodgers. Assuming Rodgers was fine and wanted to keep playing for me for a few years, I pass on Lance and will take my shot somewhere else while I keep winning with Aaron.
RC: Same question, but you just replaced John Lynch as SF GM
Ross: Same answer. How long does Rodgers want to play? I see no signs of him slowing down, so if he wants to keep playing 3-4-5 years I'd take him all day long over Lance.
Ross: Lance is all potential at this point. It's nice to dream about the possibilities, but I'll take the bird in my hand over two in the bush all day long.
RC: Is Trey Lance a QB1/top 12 in FF for 2022?
Ross: Yes. In 4-point passing TD leagues for sure.
RC: April 2021, you're the new GM of Jacksonville (with a normal coach), you can take any QB in the 2021 Draft #1. Who is your pick?
RC: With today's knowledge of 17 weeks of play so far.
Ross: Any QB in the league?
RC: *Note...there is a long pause here, so Ross must really be thinking...*
RC: 2021 NFL Draft
RC: Jacksonville on the clock
RC: You're the GM with full control
Ross: I would take Lance. I've seen nothing from any of the other guys that suggests to me they can be franchise QB's. Mac is fine. Wilson has potential just like Lance but not as much in my opinion. It's still Lance for me…and pray.
RC: I would take Zach Wilson, based on what I've seen so far...but if I were the Jets GM in April 2021, and Lawrence went, I would take Lance instead of Wilson -- Lance built better for NYJ weather like Allen for Buffalo.
Ross: That's totally reasonable.
RC: If you did Lance-Wilson, and if I would do Wilson-Lance...if you are the SF GM April 2021, at #3...Mac or Mills or Fields?
Ross: Oof, that's tough.
Ross: I can think of legit arguments for all three.
RC: But you get one pick...
RC: To fit with Shanny
RC: No, you can't draft Pitts...it has to be a QB
Ross: The one that would win the most games with Shanny would be Mac. But I think I'd take Fields, Shanahan be damned, and again pray that Fields worked out. I don't want an ok QB in this league. There's a million of those. I want ‘special’ and I think Fields has a higher chance of that than Mac or Mills, no matter how small the chance might actually be.
RC: I think I might take Davis Mills right now
RC: as the better version of Mac
RC: and I hated Mills coming out of Stanford
Ross: I get the argument for Mills. I just can't get behind it. He's performed admirably, but I just can't see a world where we wake up one day and Mills is a top 10 QB.
RC: Didn’t think Mills would make it...too much growth needed, and too bland. He's really impressed me with his poise in a bad situation.
RC: I think Mac and Mills are 'meh', but Mills grittier performance with worse things around him.
RC: Final Question...
RC: Drafting right now for Dynasty. 6pts per pass TD FF league. You must choose one...Burrow or Lance?
Ross: Burrow without question.
RC: Herbert or Kyler?
Ross: Herbert.
RC: Lance or Kyler?
Ross: Kyler.
RC: 2022 redraft, and Lance and Kyler are both going to play every game healthy/start...Lance or Kyler?
Ross: I almost snap typed Kyler, but that one depends. Right this second I'll say Kyler but I very well might change my mind come next year. 4-pt leagues it would be even closer.
RC: I ask those last ones because it's a big issue to deal with this Dynasty offseason...should people be moving off Kyler and into Herbert or Allen or Burrow or Lance or whatever.
Ross: I think so. I don't like what I see from Kyler or Kingsbury, and I'm afraid trouble is brewing there. Herbert, Allen, and Burrow seem much safer to me.
END
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = E Mitchell
12 = J Wilson
07 = Hasty
53 = Cooks
49 = Conley
40 = Collins
21 = J Camp
44 = Rex B
15 = R Freeman
09 = J Samuels
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season early-signups start January 6th, 2022 NoonET**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Buccaneers 28, Jets 24
This game was led by the Jets for about three quarters, and when they had a 24-10 lead with a few minutes left in the 3rd-quarter...at that point, I thought (during the live watch)…the Jets really are going to win this darn thing aren’t they? Which was the signal to Tom Brady to reel off 18 unanswered and take the victory. It was closer than it needed to be, the Bucs escaped the AB drama and got the win.
Tampa Bay is now (12-4) and are either going to wind up as a #2 or #3 seed…and they’ll beat whatever team they draw 1st-round, and they don’t care too much about #2 or #3 seed really. I bet Brady would rather play in LA/a dome (down the road, if it came down to it) than host the Rams. But he likely doesn’t care either way. The Bucs may rest many key players Week 18, but they are saying they will not early on in the week...it's a supposed full-go for TB Week 18.
The Jets are now (4-12) and whether they win or lose Week 18, they’ll not get to the #1 NFL Draft pick (JAX has locked up) but the Jets will wind up with the #2-5 spot for the draft regardless of Week 18’s outcome.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- What to make of the Antonio Brown (3-26-0/5) ordeal? Well, my first thought is this… They haven’t cut him as of this writing.
They said they cut him Sunday, but they didn’t do it officially. They might…but they might not. A heartfelt apology away and a team vote away from rejoining the team -- is what I think.
I’m betting he is no longer with the team for the playoffs, but they might keep him rostered just so he wont go anywhere else…but it’s not totally over that AB won’t rejoin the team for the playoffs…especially if Evans gets hurt and they need AB desperately.
Now, AB won’t be on the Bucs in 2022…I wouldn’t think. With Brown gone from the 2022 picture, and Chris Godwin a free agent with a poorly timed ACL tear…there might be openings for other WRs to step up/step in in 2022.
Rookie Jaelon Darden going into Antonio Brown’s old role could be interesting. The Tyreek Hill-ish type young WR that Tom has taken a little shine to this preseason…and that Bruce Arians called ‘like a young Antonio Brown’. I’m just saying… Not a guarantee, but it’s looking better today than it did a few days ago.
Cyril Grayson (6-84-1/8) could also be a factor in 2022. He will for sure be one Week 18 and into the playoffs. He’s going to get a shot to impress Tom…and apparently, he has been already. He caught the game winning TD here and crushed Breshad Perriman (2-41-0/3) in snaps 44-to-11. We have to assume Grayson as the #2 WR for Tampa right now, no?
-- Ronald Jones (10-26-0, 1-1-0/1) got hurt in-game, and that opened up more touches for Ke’Shawn Vaughn (8-31-0, 2-14-0/3). The RoJo injury cost a few people their title games – he was stuffed when he was in, and then got hurt/out. It happens – putting him in/starting him v. the Jets made sense.
Vaughn will be a potential RB1 v. CAR Week 18, but he may have a 2nd-team O-Line to work with…and he is questionable with a rib injury.
Le’Veon Bell (3-5-0, 3-30-0/3) is not a threat…he’s dying. He might see touches too just to keep Vaughn safe in case they need him for the playoffs. Bell getting 10 carries and 3-4 targets probably won’t be great.
-- Michael Carter (3-54-0) went down in-game, and it was Austin Walter (14-49-0) for some reason taking over as ‘lead ballcarrier’. He’s not good, but he tries hard.
Ty Johnson (5-35-1, 3-47-0/4) in a support role here shows he has little future with the Jets for any FF upside hope.
Carter is questionable Week 18 with a concussion, and Tevin Coleman should be back from COVID to muddy it all up if Carter is out.
-- Braxton Berrios (8-65-1/12, 2-12-1) keeps on improving, and getting more touches every week…and more TDs (now 4 this season)!!! A few of you were ‘forced’ to use him this title week…and ta-da!
Watching him the last few weeks, I’m thinking – why weren’t the Jets using him more before all this? He’s the Hunter Renfrow lite for the Jets.
-- IDP side note…
The Bucs had two edge rushers down (JPP and Shaq B.) for this game…and great setup for pass rushing against the weak Jets O-Line. But did 1st-round rookie Joe Tyron (4 tackles) take advantage? No.
No sacks.
No QB Hits.
The other fill-in edge rusher, Anthony Nelson (3 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs) had a much stronger game.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Jeff Smith
53 = Berrios
50 = K Cole
31 = Ty J
25 = A Walter
08 = M Carter
56 = Evans
49 = Tyler Johnson
47 = Grayson
11 = Perriman
26 = L Bell
24 = Vaughn
20 = RoJo
58 = A Nelson
53 = J Tryon
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season early-sign ups start January, 6th 2022 NoonET**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- Total Football Advisor
A look back at the Chargers 2021 season via RC's weekly game recaps/analysis with 2022 notes/comments added to this review...
Checkout our FREE Premium Articles
- 2024 NFL Preseason Game Fantasy Scouting (Wk2): Bears 27, Bengals 3
- RC's Pre-Preseason/July Podcast Appearance with the Podfather
- 2024 NFL Preseason Game Fantasy Scouting (Wk1): Broncos 34, Colts 30
- NFL Draft 2022 Scouting Report: RB Isiah Pacheco, Rutgers
- NFL Draft 2024 Scouting Report: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State (Free-view Reprint)