Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st, obviously everyone is healthy, and running our data to the NFL schedule and seeing 'what happens’ and then taking that right through the playoffs.
This will be a series -- three weeks of results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
When the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all this in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders’ -- if a team’s projected win total isn’t close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
#3 seed Chiefs (15-4) at #1 seed Bengals (14-4)
The Bengals win 57% of the simulations.
The annual Bengals v. Chiefs playoff game. They actually played Week 17 this season, and we had Cincy for the win. Cincy has won most of the recent matchups between them. Last season, Cincy lost a heartbreaker in the AFC Finals by virtue of missing half+ of its O-Line…and they still should’ve won. In the perfect Faux world, the Bengals get their playoff win back from last season and go onto the Super Bowl for the second time in three years…and enter the argument for 'best Dynasty hope for the NFL’ argument IF they can win this Super Bowl.
