Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st, obviously everyone is healthy, and running our data to the NFL schedule and seeing 'what happens' and then taking that right through the playoffs.
This will be a series -- three weeks of results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
When the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all this in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
#6 seed NY Giants (11-7) at #1 seed Eagles (12-5)
The Eagles win 77% of the simulations.
The Giants are creeping closer to hanging with the Eagles, but they're not there yet…and may never be in the Hurts era. For sure, NYG is not ready to go on the road and get this win with Philly off a BYE. Too much to ask. Philly heads back to the NFC Finals.
#5 seed 49ers (12-6) at #2 seed Seahawks (12-6)
The Seahawks win 59% of the simulations.
It's been a war between these two all 'Faux' season…a war that Seattle won via tiebreakers for the higher seed and home field advantage in Seattle for a playoff game -- tips it to the Seahawks. If QB means everything…then you have to lean Geno year two over unknown-arm-Purdy or total-media chaos/soap opera-Lance. Seattle is the fresh arrival to the Final Four remaining teams from last year's finalists.
