Ross Jacobs

FFM

18 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Vikings 36, Steelers 28

If you haven't seen this one yet, I'd recommend you go watch it for yourself. What an absolutely wacky game.

The entire first half can be summed up by saying the Steelers didn't show up to play. They looked like a legit JV high school team. Not even kidding. It was painfully obvious to everyone watching. The score was 23-0 Minnesota at the half and we were all wondering if Cook was going to run for 400 yards.

And then the 3rd quarter started and not a whole lot had changed it seemed. The Steelers were still sputtering around on offense like they've done all year. The Vikings kicked a couple of field goals and the game looked over at 29-0 with just over one quarter still to play.

And that's when the crazy started.

All of the sudden it was like Pittsburgh suddenly realized they had a project due the next morning and they needed to down a couple cups of coffee and start working feverishly to get it done in time. They scored 3 straight TD's before Minnesota got nervous and tried to put them away with one of their own. Sure, the Steelers did great cutting it to an 8 point game, but now the Vikings were up 16 again and all was well, right?

Wrong. A Cousins interception gave Pittsburgh new life and they capitalized with a score and 2-point conversion to make it 36-28. Minnesota tried to run out the clock with just minutes left, but the Steelers finally found their defense and stopped them.

Pitt ball with a little over 2 minutes left. The Vikings had done nothing to slow the Steelers for the past quarter, and the game felt like it was headed to OT. But at the last second the Vikings defense bowed up and halted Pitt while the clock ran out.

The Vikings hang on for the win after utterly dominating early. We've seen this pattern so many times this year it's become routine. 20 point leads essentially mean nothing anymore if the teams are close in talent level because the team that is leading just goes into conservative prevent defense mode and the trailing team is allowed to complete tons of short passes underneath that lead to easy scores.

Minnesota gets to 6-7, easily the best team with a losing record in the league. 5 of their 7 losses this year have come by a combined 13 points. They just are not doing well in close games, and basically every game has been close for them this year.

The Vikings finish out the year with games against the Rams, Packers, and twice against the Bears. They will likely go 2-2 but possibly 1-3 to finish with a losing record and out of the playoffs. All year I kept thinking they were ready to make a turn and possibly sneak into a wildcard spot, but it just never materialized. At this point you have to think Mike Zimmer is probably on the hot seat. We'll see if he survives for another year or not.

Pittsburgh falls to 6-6-1 and are trailing in the NFC North race. They have performed poorly all year and I hope they lose all 4 remaining games, but looking at the schedule...there's hope for them to sneak into the playoffs or even win the division if the Bengals and dying Ravens fall apart at the end.

The Steelers have the Titans, Chiefs, Browns, and Ravens left. I don't think they can take down the Chiefs, but the other three are winnable games against solid but injured teams. Most likely Pitt goes 1-3 or 2-2 in this stretch and just miss the playoffs, but a few lucky breaks could see them find a way in. I'm betting they come up a game or two short.

After that is anyone's guess. There's a lot of heat on Tomlin right now, but the Steelers never make coaching changes hastily. I'll bet Tomlin survives and is given another year. It's not going to go well though because Ben is done in Pittsburgh and Tomlin in all his arrogance is either going to roll with Dwayne Haskins as his QB intentionally or try and fail to trade for an elite QB from another team (none of whom want to play in Pittsburgh for obvious reasons). Like it or not Haskins is likely the starting QB for the Steelers in 2022, and we all know how that's going to go. Good luck running the ball with Najee in 2022!

Fantasy Notes

--I guess now we have to take Big Ben seriously for fantasy the last couple weeks of the playoffs. He has 11 TD's his last 5 games and the passing numbers are trending up as well as he tries to garbage time his team back into games. If you need a QB streamer this week against an average Tennessee secondary is as good a spot as any. You could make an argument for using him in garbage time against the Chiefs the following week, but personally I'm not that brave.

*RC NOTE: And the Titans passing defense is starting to take a turn as guys get healthy and rookies develop, etc. They flustered Mahomes Week 7 (held to 3pts!!) and they pick-sixed McStafford twice in a Rams passing game squash. 

A rising Titans pass D and cold weather…don’t love it for Ben this week, but he’s not totally dead like he was a few weeks ago. 

--There was quite a bit of noise made about Chase Claypool (8-93-0/9) after this game due to a penalty he got for poking a defender in the eye and then for a first down celebration late in the game that might (or might not) have lost his team some time trying for a field goal.

After the game, Tomlin did admit that he benched Claypool for a period of time during the game due to the penalty and obviously wasn't happy with the late sequence either, but I don't get vibes that this is as big an issue for the Steelers as the media is making it out to be. Tomlin actually sounds quite patient and willing to work with Claypool right now.

Despite all the many reasons I dislike Tomlin in his managerial style, this is the correct move. Claypool is far too talented to just discard. As Tomlin says, he's a young guy and still learning maturity. It's not like he's out partying with strippers or stealing crab legs from restaurants or something. He celebrated a first down the same way he always does and was a little lax in taking notice of the clock situation. He'll learn in time. If he doesn't then the Steelers will move on, but that's farther down the line.

I don't expect any adverse effects from this right now. Claypool is a big part of this offense (even though it hasn't felt like it lately). In his last four games he's been targeted 9-8-3-9 times and has gone over 80 yards each game with 8+ targets. It isn't the numbers we want because he and Ben are struggling to connect on these hail mary deep balls, but he's back to being more WR3 than random WR4. He's also overdue for a TD with only 1 on the entire season (that blows my mind too...).

--I heard some talk about James Washington (4-65-1/6) getting more time because of the Claypool problems and Washington being such a good worker bee...blah blah blah. It isn't happening. Maybe they put him in a tiny bit more just to push Claypool, but he's not taking anyone's job. Washington is still a distant 4th behind DJ, CC, and McCloud. 

If anything we'll see McCloud elevated over CC for the time being. That's what happened here with the snaps after Claypool was benched for the penalty. I have no interest in Washington.

*RC NOTE: I think James Washington earned Ben’s trust a touch more…and he might see 3-6 targets per game vs. his normal 0-3. Ray-Ray has been the one earning more trust/targets/snaps…6-32-0/8 here, and three weeks prior he had a 9-63-0/12 game with Claypool out hurt. 

A little rise in Washington, more snaps/trust for Ray-Ray…I think it all hurts Claypool’s case for ‘he’s all Ben’s got when not throwing to Diontae’ FF hopes week-to-week. Claypool has been mostly a WR3-4 dud until this breakout…and it happened late in all-passing, desperate comeback attempts. It’s hard to trust CC right now, for FF, based on typical game flow for weeks…but now if JW and Ray-Ray are going to see some more looks, even worse. 

--Adam Thielen still hasn't practiced since his high-ankle sprain injury and will probably be out again this week.

In his absence we can expect another healthy dose of KJ Osborn (3-83-1/9). If you started Osborn here it worked out pretty well because of his long TD, but things were a little scattershot outside of that. I watched this back trying to see the problem, but I didn't notice anything on Osborn's end. He was moving well and getting open. Kirk just wasn't getting it to him accurately.

It was clearly a Kirk issue too as he had similar problems with Jefferson who only caught 7 of 15 passes. Not really sure what was going on with Cousins though. Maybe just an off night.

I'd expect a more solid showing from Osborn against the Bears this week. I think we're in for another 5 or so catches for 75 yards with a shot at a TD against a suspect Bears secondary. I don't see anything to fear with Osborn and think you can start him with confidence as a WR2-2.5.

IDP Notes

--There were multiple reasons for Dalvin Cook's big day here, but one high profile guy stood out as a clear problem for the Steelers, former 1st round pick Devin Bush. Now, I will defend Bush a little bit because his defensive line was allowing blockers to get on him literally every play, but regardless Bush was out of position constantly, couldn't get off blocks, and was just getting absolutely abused here, especially in the first half.

Thinking back to a few weeks ago, I bet Bush was a big part of why Joe Mixon crushed them as well. Bush just doesn't look right compared to his first season. Maybe the 2020 injury robbed him of some athleticism. Maybe he still hasn't fully recovered but will get back to normal with another year.

I don't have those answers, but I do know he's a liability right now and I am loving this for D'Onta Foreman this week. Fire that bad boy up because he's got some huge upside against this sieve of a defense.

--That was a negative IDP look, but now we've got a nice positive. Armon Watts (3 tackles, 1 sack) is looking mighty good as an up and coming defensive tackle. He's got 5 sacks on the season now since having his snaps elevated in week 4.

His playing time steadily grew for the next 6 or 7 weeks until he was playing around 70-75% of the time, but they have gone back down the past two weeks. I don't think that's going to last. He looks excellent. Prototype size, good movements skills, very light mover for as big as he is, power to push blockers back...if he's not one of the best defensive tackles in the league next year I'm a monkey's uncle.

Watts was a 6th round pick out of Arkansas in 2019. He had some fans around the league due to his excellent highlight tape, but there were some questions about his effort and experience/playing time due to being a one-year starter. It looks like he's answered those questions and is living up to the flashes of talent he showed in college.

Snap Counts of Interest

72 = Diontae Johnson

63 = RayRay McCloud

44 = Chase Claypool

30 = James Washington

67 = Justin Jefferson

60 = KJ Osborn

29 = Dede Westbrook

3 = Ihmir Smith-Marsette

R.C. Fischer

FFM

18 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Browns 24, Ravens 22

Lamar Jackson got hurt early in the game, and all seemed lost for Baltimore. The Browns were playing solid football…and they got all the breaks early (dropped INT by BAL, ill-timed penalties, etc.), and then Lamar was gone. It looked hopeless. Cleveland was up 17-3…and 24-6 at the half…and 24-9 at the end of three quarters. Everything seemed under control for the Brownies.

But credit the Ravens for not quitting…they started to climb back into this game in the 4th-quarter. Credit the Ravens, credit a ‘gamer’ performance by Tyler Huntley, credit an overrated/mediocre Browns team desperately trying to hold onto the luck that got them to the early lead.

With a 1+ minute remaining, Baltimore scored a TD to draw the game to 24-22 Browns -- and on the ensuing onsides kick…a perfect bounce hitting a Browns player in the chest and ricocheting to Baltimore for the recovery. With 1:15 left, and the ball at midfield…and possessing Justin Tucker – it looked like a miracle Ravens come-from-behind victory/total Cleveland collapse. The Browns got a crucial sack, forcing the momentum against Baltimore who then had to throw deeper to get a 1st-down, and they couldn’t keep the drive alive, and the Browns held on.

Neither team was good here. It was an old-fashioned AFC North plodding/grinding slugfest (more slug than fest). The Browns win to keep their AFC North title hopes alive.

Cleveland is now (7-6), a game behind Baltimore with four games to-go. Week 15 hosting Las Vegas should be a win, but the Browns have an unknown roster due to COVID (as of this writing), and likely Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum are out, and Nick Mullens will come up from the practice squad to start. If the Browns lose this Week 15 game, the easiest game they have left on the schedule, then they will likely finish with 8 wins and out of the playoffs…but 9 wins is quite possible. It will be a dogfight to the finish.

Baltimore falls to (8-5) with three games ahead that they will be underdogs in: GB, at CIN, LAR. I would project them to lose each one of those and possibly play a winner-take-all Week 18 vs. PIT for the AFC North crown. We project the Ravens finish (9-8) and yielding the AFC North title to Cincy but getting a wild card with already-booked key wins over DEN and IND helping push them in the wild card tie breakers.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- First, allow me to say this… Tyler Huntley (27-38 for 270 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 6-45-0) played a very solid, admirable game in relief of Lamar. Huntley is like an 80%+ version of Lamar. If Huntley had a better/stronger arm, he might be as-good, better than Lamar.

Huntley is a capable+ runner, but a shade slower than Lamar and without all the highlight reel runs that bluff people into thinking Lamar is better than he is (*see, also: Michael Vick). Huntley is a better/smarter passer…he just doesn’t have the arm strength or rapid release of Lamar.

I say all this to note…

1) When Lamar is out…Huntley is the perfect fill-in. Not much of an overall drop-off at all.

2) In 2021, Huntley has been forced to start once for Lamar COVID (earlier this season) and then played most of a game here…two real meaty games of action for Huntley. In both games he threw the ball 35+ times (36 and 38 times), and with that he completed 71%+ of his passes each event. He doesn’t have the arm, but he does have the anticipation and vision. He’s not bad.

3) Bad draw to play Green Bay Week 15…Lamar is going to be out (as I broke a few days ago) and Huntley gets a real start, but the Packers defense is very good and might have Jaire Alexander back. It’s a tough spot for Huntley to shine.

 -- It’s clear to me that Rashod Bateman (7-103-0/8) is better than Marquise Brown (5-41-0/8) already, but I also know I’ll be moaning about Bateman’s underutilization for the next 2-3 years.

Lamar Jackson is a very limited, low volume passer. Everything he does is to Marquise Brown or Mark Andrews (11-115-1/11)…it’s what he’s comfortable with, no shame in that…and the way Bateman works, as a technician, is the completely wrong style for Lamar as an improvised deeper ball thrower. Whatever FF heights Bateman hits the next 1-2 seasons with Lamar, he will be a level lower than he should…because of Lamar.

I imagine Bateman will see more and more targets, over time, with Lamar…but that just means instead of Marquise as a WR1 and Bateman a WR3…they might both become FF-inconsistent WR2s.

I’m pro-Bateman, and he played an excellent game here – and he’s better with Huntley because he has a connection with him more than Lamar, logically from time on the 2nd-team this year together.

I’m anti-Bateman with the Ravens/Lamar, in general, ahead…for Dynasty, etc.

The way that Bateman could flip the script is Marquise gets hurt for a while, as he does, and then Bateman is discovered by Lamar and a relationship is changed/formed. I’m not against possessing Bateman for such a hope, but if I had to bet on the future – I have to bet against Bateman being nothing more than a WR2-3, more WR3 in this offense.

The biggest takeaway is…the rise of Bateman pulls off of Marquise Brown’s value/output into the future.

 -- Rashod Bateman looked good here, as was just mentioned…but, honestly, the most impressive WR to me here was Donovan Peoples-Jones (5-90-0/7) – and it’s the second time in the past two months that I ‘get this feeling’ on him. There’s something here. There’s something bigger than the situation – I hate the CLE passing game (for FF). I hate the CLE passing game in December/January. I know the Browns want to run-run-run, but with all that…DPJ is sticking out like a star-in-waiting. Not just good WR in the right place at the right time, but more of a…this dude might be a #1 WR type profile, an alpha.

Here’s a re-reminder that shocked even me, because I forget how athletic DPJ is (sing Bateman ‘just because’ we’re talking about him in this report…

6’1.5”/212, 10.1 hands, 33.5” arm, 4.48 40-time, 44.5 vertical, 11’7” broad (no agility times) = DPJ (2019 Combine)

6’0.3”/190,  9.5” hands, 33.0” arm, 4.43 40-time, 36.0” vertical, 10’3” broad (solid agility) = Bateman (2021 Pro Day, so factor in some fluff).

In this game, I marveled at DPJ racing deep down the sidelines and Baker lofting one out to him, tightly covered, and then DPJ just flew into the sky, over top of the DB by a foot+, to make the beautiful snatch…but landed out of bounds – or it would have made his day 6 catches and 100+ yards and even more FF-heat on him.

I need to focus more on DPJ and less on how I hate the CLE passing game (for FF). Bateman is at risk of being buried in BAL. Whereas Peoples-Jones will be entering his 3rd-year with Baker in 2022, and rookies and/or free agents coming in around him could force DPJ to be Baker’s #1.

I want to love DPJ more to the FF finish, but Week 15 he’ll have Nick Mullens at QB in the cold/wind/light rain of Cleveland.

Week 16 with Baker back…vs. Green Bay in the cold, not good at all.

Weeks 17-18 with PIT-CIN are OK, but also getting colder outdoor games.

DPJ is a good, cheaper Dynasty stash for 2022.

 -- With Kareem Hunt continually getting hurt, D’Ernest Johnson (4-22-0, 1-7-0/1) is getting more and more action and he is really starting to grow/gain confidence in his play. He’s not getting the same treatment as Hunt used to as the ‘1b’ with Chubb, but Johnson is growing in baby steps in the secondary role.

I don’t think D’Ernest has a lot of FF use for this season, but he’s not a zero. I think he’s getting the attention of people around the league…but it would take a big leap of faith to make a bid on him as a restricted free agent in 2022. And the Browns will not dump Hunt before the 2022 season because he is their heart & soul on offense. Chubb is their best player, but Hunt is their spiritual leader.

D’Ernest is buried, sadly, for the foreseeable future.

 -- IDP Grant Delpit (11 tackles, 1 INT) was once hailed as the top safety prospect in college football…a top 5 mock draft pick.

I can tell you this – he sucks. He’s a mediocre coverage safety who doesn’t look like he knows what he’s doing all the time. Wildly unimpressed with him. How he got credited with 11 tackles in this game…I have no idea. His pick was a pass thrown right to him with no one else around.

Snap Counts of Interest:

60 = DPJ

54 = Landry

24 = Higgins

43 = Chubb

14 = D’Ernest

13 = Hunt

06 = Felton

70 = Mq Brown

49 = Duvernay

48 = Bateman

23 = Watkins

49 = Devonta

20 = Latavius

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies. 

Ross Jacobs

FFM

17 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Rams 30, Cardinals 23

This was an exciting one that also had massive implications for seeding in the NFC.

The Cardinals started off the game with a sack and false start. Things were already looking bleak, but then Kyler got in gear and drove the team down for a FG. They would stop the Rams first drive and promptly drive down looking to extend their lead.

Instead, Kyler was intercepted at about the 5 yard line and the Rams returned it for good field position. It was a momentous play and set the tone for the rest of the night. Watching live I thought Kyler just never saw the linebacker, but after watching it back the pass was tipped. Just an unfortunate play that ultimately proved to be a 14 point swing.

The Rams would score after that interception, but the Cardinals weren't about to roll over. The Rams got up 10-3 but the Cardinals fought back to tie the game with yet another James Conner 1-yard TD run. A pair of field goals, one from each team, would round out the first half at 13-13.

The first 3 minutes after the half would ultimately cost the Cardinals the game. The Rams got the ball first and hit a fantastic long bomb to Van Jefferson for a score and a 20-13 lead. On the next possession, Kyler rolled out to his left and tried to throw a pass over Leonard Floyd's head but didn't get enough air on the ball and it was intercepted.

The Cardinals defense stopped the Rams after the interception, but a penalty was called on them on 3rd down giving the Rams a new set of first downs. They scored and suddenly it was a 27-13 lead for the Rams.

Arizona still wasn't quitting because they are one of the toughest teams in the league and took the next drive down the field. They got a 4th and 2 inside the 20 yard line but the ball clanked off DeAndre Hopkins's hands for what would have been a tough catch. More points the Cardinals were denied.

They managed to stop the next Rams drive, got the ball back, and this time put it in the endzone to finally cut the lead to 27-20. LA came back with a FG drive and it looked like the game was over with time winding after the Rams stopped the next Cardinals drive.

Arizona somehow got the ball back one last time and they had to have a score. They kicked a FG with about 30 seconds remaining and miraculously got the ball back. They had a pulse.

But as usual it was not to be. A holding call brought back a huge Kyler run on 1st down and Aaron Donald's 3rd sack of the night ended the game.

This loss drops Arizona to 10-3 and they are now the 3rd seed in the NFC with some problems. Losing home field advantage is going to be huge if they have to go to Green Bay for the championship game. They are probably out of the picture for the #1 seed because their remaining schedule is much more difficult than either Green Bay or Tampa's.

Right now though they can't be worried about the top seed because they have to work just to hold off the Rams now. LA is only a half game back and has a slightly easier schedule. My best guess is both teams finish up strong at 3-1 and the Cardinals take the division, but it's not a guarantee now.

My takeaway from this game is that the Cardinals are definitely the superior team. No questions about it. They had multiple things work against them here, poorly timed penalties, failed 4th down conversions, goofy turnovers and none from Stafford who had been handing out pick 6's like candy on Halloween.

Arizona is still right in the mix for best team in the league along with Tampa and Green Bay. It's a shame all three are in the same conference. There are going to be some wild battles between them, and it only gets worse if Dallas can get healthy.

The Rams are definitely in that next tier, good enough to beat anyone on any given day, but just a tick worse than the best teams. You can't count them out, but I have a hard time seeing how they get to the Superbowl because they'll have to win 3 straight games against the best teams. I don't know that they are consistent enough to do that. Consistency is why Tampa and Green Bay are on top right now over Arizona even though I think top to bottom Arizona is likely the best team.

Let's not get too carried away thinking the Rams are suddenly fine though. They got a good win here aided by some good fortune, but it is not guaranteed that they'll beat Seattle this week, especially with so many players battling COVID. If they lose this game then it's a wildcard for sure.

Fantasy Notes

--Kyler Murray (32-49 for 383 yards 0 TD/2 INT, 7-61-0) had a somewhat muted fantasy night, but it was mostly fluky that he didn't score a few TD's. He still threw for nearly 400 yards and would have been at nearly 100 rushing but for a holding call. He's still one of the best fantasy QB's in the game when healthy and I expect him to finish up strong.

--I'm not saying too much here about James Conner (13-31-2, 9-94-0/9) here. You know my stance. The rushing totals tell the true story. He's not a good back. I don't give a damn that he caught a one-handed catch on national tv. That does not automatically make him a good back. He's working for fantasy because he's been the lucky beneficiary of short TD's all season while Edmonds got hurt, and now they think he's an amazing player because he scores, so they are throwing every checkdown pass to him while the defense chases all the actually good players around the field.

It's a joke, a fraud based on circumstances, but it's working so you ride it for now. Just know, Conner is going to be an early 2nd round pick in fantasy drafts next year...if I catch any of you drafting him I'm petitioning RC to kick you out of FFM. I'm not having it.

*RC NOTE: I was thinking about this as James Conner was being inducted into Canton Monday night…

Last year, Kenyan Drake was annoyingly good for Fantasy in a similar way as Conner – lower yards per carry, stuffed too many times on 3rd & 1 and 4th & 1’s but a flurry of short TDs and RB1 status late in the season. At the same time, Chase Edmonds was putting up RB2 numbers as, essentially, a WR playing RB. Once Edmonds went down, Conner has taken the Drake-Edmonds role from 2020 and mashed it together just recently and is grabbing all the FF-gold. 

We’ll see if it is Conner or Drake or Edmonds or whomever in 2022, but I think the thing we’ve learned in 2021 and 2020 is that the lead back for Arizona is an FF gold mine – and they will be worth a 2nd-Round redraft pick. I thought that player was gonna be Chase Edmonds to start 2021…and they tried, but it failed into a split role of ‘meh’ but Conner scoring TDs. Now, with Edmonds out, Conner has consolidated all the power…he’s Thanos collecting all those stones (I’m not sure what I’m saying, I don’t really watch those movies…but hopefully it makes sense).

If Conner is the lead back for Arizona in 2022, and Kobra Ky is still there – Conner is a 2nd-round redraft pick, maybe a 1st-rounder.

…thus, I may be petitioned to kick myself out of FFM…that’s trouble for my family to eat in 2022. Can I be kicked out of FFM? Can God create a rock so big He can’t move it? He made James Conner a top 5 PPR asset all of a sudden, so He can do anything. 

--Chase Edmonds will play this week, but I don't think it hurts Conner at all. They think he's a star now and are going to give him 70-80% of the touches including all the juicy redzone stuff. Edmonds doesn't look playable to me in championship games unless you are seriously desperate.

At least with mild frauds like Deebo Samuel and Ja'Marr Chase, they have some natural talent. They aren't bad players, just not the gods they are made out to be. Conner isn't good at all. This won't hold up in the long run.

*RC NOTE: Look at the difference of Kenyan Drake in Miami v. Arizona v. now in Las Vegas.

Look at Conner in PIT v. ARI.

It’s ‘Arizona’ to ‘blame’, not Conner. But, in FF…we buy situations as much as player talent…we want both, but if you can only have one…you want the ‘starts at RB for Arizona’ attribute more than ‘runs a fast 40-time at 220 pounds’ (see: Saquon Barkley). 

--DeAndre Hopkins went down with a foot injury in this game and he's done for the year. In his place it looks like AJ Green is the top target. Some people are going a little too crazy with this by assuming Green steps into the Hopkins void and takes all those stats, but that line of thinking has two problems. 1. Hopkins hasn't been playing much this year and Green wasn't all that great without him. And 2. Hopkins wasn't getting massive targets when he was healthy.

Kyler is spreading th

e ball around to the open man. Has been all year. Green looks like he's finally developed some chemistry with Kyler though, so he might be the de facto #1, but this isn't prime AJ anymore. He's just ok these days. It's probably good for WR2 numbers to finish out though.

--I'm sorry to dunk on an FFM favorite, but I think I'm losing interest in Rondale Moore. He's not a bust or anything. He looks fine. But I don't see any signs of special like we hoped. He's just another small fast guy out there, and in this offense there's no volume to be had. Kyler is spreading the ball around too much. Unless I see a real push next year I'm moving on to more lucrative pastures. I'd take Elijah Moore over Rondale now heads up.

*RC NOTE: You go where the scouting and real results take you, and I’ve jumped ship to Elijah as my favorite Moore (after Dinty). But I’m ready to jump back on Rondale in a hot minute. He;s starting to flash some subtle signs. Don’t give up on Rondale yet. 

--For all the OBJ truthers out there thinking he's a megastar...no, just no. He's still the same overrated guy he was in Cleveland. The offense here is better and he's not the focal point, so he's producing some WR2 stats, but all he's done is replace what Robert Woods was doing. If he's not better than Woods then how is he a superstar?

The TD here was just a simple slant. They force it to him to prove they are smart, not because he's so amazing. And most of his yards came from one shallow cross where his man got caught in traffic and he ran wide open for 40 yards. On his other 5 catches he got a mere 35 yards. I'm sorry, but he's just not that guy anymore. He's just another ok receiver that still can't catch in traffic.

--Sony Michel (20-79-0) looks slow. Maybe it was just the Arizona defense, but I did not like what I saw from him here. If that's the best he can do then this isn't a competition once Henderson comes back. I think Darrell is going to take this job completely once he's healthy. No split.

IDP Notes

--Man, Marco Wilson (2 tackles) had a rough day giving up a couple of short TD's that were just out of his reach, but that dude can play. He was a guy RC liked in the draft for his natural movement skills and coverage ability. The only concern was his consistency.

I watched him a lot in this game and it's official, he's very talented and I think the consistency is going to come with time. Give this guy 2-3 years and we might be talking about one of the best corners in the league. He is so smooth and athletic. Just needs to work on his technique more. Great showing Marco.

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Saints 30, Jets 9

10-6 Saints the half. Both teams struggling to put anything together because both offenses are really low rent right now.

13-6 Saints at the end of three…we still got a ballgame.

Then the Saints started to pull away with the Taysom Hill running effect wearing NYJ down…and the Jets could not answer.

The Jets are now (3-10)…and they still have an outside shot at the #1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, but likely they finish with a top 5 or so pick. Week 16 hosting Jacksonville might get NYJ to their 4th win and well out of the #1 pick sweepstakes.

The Saints stop their five-game losing streak and get to (6-7). The Saints have a shot at 9 wins and a possible wild card, but 8 wins and out of the playoffs is more likely.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Only one real note I have New Orleans’s side… I mean, everything about this team (for FF) is Kamara and all the WRs/TEs are FF-useless. This we all know.

Taysom Hill (15-21 for 175 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 11-73-2) was on his way to a crappy FF game…until he rushed for a TD with 5+ minutes left…which then made it just a weak FF game, no longer a full disaster. But trying to run out the clock late, Hill ran a basic off tackle run to get a first and end the game…but he had nothing but blue skies to run to…so he just raced 44-yards for a 2nd rushing TD in the game and suddenly it was a very nice FF week for him.

If Taysom doesn’t get you a ground score week-to-week…he’s going to kill you with his low passer numbers. Two starts now, and he was headed to two very mediocre FF efforts…and then he had that lucky Deonte Harris long TD late v. Dallas to boost his FF output…and then the lucky late TD run here that he almost just sat down on to run the clock, but he just went with it to the house, thankfully, if you had Taysom starting.

Week 15 at Tampa Bay is not a great setup for Taysom…Hill likes to power run the ball, and Tampa is the most vicious run stopping D in the league. Taysom is not going to win (for FF) often with big passer numbers. On top of that, as of Thursday…his best two OLs (Armstead and Ramczyk) haven’t practiced this week yet. It’s a very sketchy week for Taysom.

 -- I was wondering if Zach Wilson would have a nice follow up to his solid effort last time out, and he was not terrible here -- but he wasn’t great. He has little time and poor WRs facing a good Saints pass defense. No turnovers is a good thing but no real positive FF action either. Wilson won’t be a discussion point for FF until 2022 sometime, at best.

 -- Michael Carter is on IR (but should come off Wk15) and Tevin Coleman was out with concussion, so who did the Jets turn to? Slow-ass LaMichal Perine (7-28-0) mixed with Ty Johnson (6-17-0, 4-40-0/7). When Carter (and/or Coleman) returns, Perine goes back to obscurity and Ty is a weak RB3/Flex for PPR.

 -- Who does Zach Wilson throw to with Corey Davis and Elijah Moore gone?

Braxton Berrios (6-52-0/10) had 10 targets here…and earlier in the season (Weeks 1-2) when Crowder-Moore were hurt/not a thing…Berrios averaged 6.0 rec. (9.0 targets), 62.0 yards per game with Wilson. You got a chance at 3-6 catches for 30-70 yards per game with Berrios-Wilson…just likely no TDs.

D.J. Montgomery (3-36-0/6) is an athletic small school WR who I liked as a sleeper prospect a few years ago…and out of nowhere he got 59% snaps and 6 targets in this game…playing early on and consistently. He looked more nervous than anything else, but I’ll give him a pass for his most NFL time/quasi-debut here (of a bigger role) after years of practice squad/future contract time served. I’ll keep tabs on him, but he’s not likely to be anything for FF in 2021 (or probably beyond, but I’ll keep tabs).

The funny part about Berrios with 10 targets and Montgomery out of nowhere with 6 is…

Jamison Crowder (3-19-0/6) and Denzel Mims (0-0-0/1). Wilson doesn’t seem to be a huge fan of Crowder…even with Davis-Moore gone.

Snap Counts of Interest:

60 = Crowder

55 = K Cole

39 = DJ Montgomery

27 = Berrios

22 = Mims

48 = Ty J

17 = Perine

51 = Vannett

23 = Juwan J.

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Broncos 38, Lions 10

I don’t think anyone was shocked by this outcome. I thought Detroit might be able to hang close/within the big spread, but then the Lions lost several players to COVID on top of just generally sucking and a 28-point beatdown ensued.

Detroit falls to (1-11-1) and could win Week 16 v. ATL to get to two wins and their tie, and that be a devastating win to allow the loser of this week’s JAX-HOU matchup to possibly slip into the #1 pick spot ahead of Detroit.

The funny thing is -- all three coaches of these bottom feeding teams are motivated to win by whatever delusions play out in their heads. Dan Campbell and David Culley think ‘wins’ build momentum…like field goal attempts do when you’re losing 47-0 (hey, at least we didn’t get shutout! What momentum!!). And then there’s the new Jags O-C, the kiss-of-death to any head coach…assistant coach Darrell Bevell – he thinks winning a game could land him a head job! Ha!!

These three guys…when they need to win, they lose. When the smartest thing they can do is lose…they’ll go and win and ruin the draft positioning.

Denver is now (7-6), and they might fulfill my June-July-August preseason wild card prediction. Their fate may hinge on Week 15 hosting Cincinnati…a game they’re favored to win, but I think they will lose. Win Week 15 and they should be able to get to a minimum of 9 wins. Lose Week 15 and it’s going to be a tough road to 9 wins, and then allowing Cincy to have a tiebreaker over them might come back to haunt them if they all end up with 9 wins. Huge Week 15 game this week for Denver…and the future of Vic Fangio.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Godwin Igwebuike (8-25-0) started in this game, but was (shockingly, to me) quickly rotating in and out with Craig Reynolds (11-83-0, 2-16-0/2)…who was just activated off the practice squad for this game.

The two backs were switching in and out every few plays, but when Igwebuike was in he would not see the ball, but Reynolds would come in and get a hand-off…and he’d gash the defense for 5-10+ yards…then they’d rotate, then they’d rotate back again with Reynolds gashing the defense again.

I was shocked and somewhat appalled to see Reynolds getting such work via the box score on Sunday – why wasn’t Igwebuike getting more of a push after what he’s done the past few weeks? But watching this game back, I ended up appalled that they’ve kept Reynolds on the practice squad and didn’t give him 20+ touches here. He was clearly the better back and making things happen, but because Detroit is Detroit…they pulled back the reins on any success happening.

Assuming Swift is out again this week, I’d assume a Jamaal Williams ‘start’ and then Reynolds taking a split workload and eventually outperforming Williams…whatever that means, via 2nd-half garbage in a 20+ point deficit. But, who knows the mind of Dan Campbell?

 -- I know what the trend says…I know there’s good garbage time with Lions players…but I just can’t get strongly behind Amon-Ra St. Brown (8-73-0/12).

His last two games: 9.0 rec. (12.0 targets), 79.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game = it should be exciting, but every time a Lions receiver has a good junk-time game or two, then they pull the rug out from under you.

I’m the one probably in the wrong, but this week vs. Byron Murphy is not good…but then again opponents are usually playing backups 2nd-half in a 20pt+ lead, so…you should probably be OK with ARSB.

 -- T.J. Hockenson (DNP) is now done for the year…I knew they were covering up or hoping against hope on his injury the past week or so. Any viable FF replacements for the Lions?

No

Brock Wright (3-20-0/5) is a stiff who will catch a couple passes by being ‘available’.

Shane Zylstra (2-18-0/6) is an interesting convert to TE, a former WR…a D3 star…but he looked like a scared, skinny TE in this game…but that’s to be expected. He did lead the Lions in snaps at TE? Maybe he shakes off the jitters and comes on a bit as we go? 6’3”/220+, big wingspan and hands, unknown speed/agility (2020 rookie in the COVID offseason of no/low testing).  

 -- Let’s finish out the Lions’ notes with an IDP…

Linebacker Josh Woods (13 tackles, 2 TFLs) got his first start, due to injuries/COVID and landed 13 tackles. He played half a game Week 13 and had 8 tackles. I watched him a bunch in this game…undersized/needs more muscle/bulk but is a decent athlete and he moves around to the ball well. He was patrolling the middle…which is a good place when you’re on DET with teams running out big leads there.

If Alex Anzalone is out again, and I think he will be – Woods could be in for double-digit tackles again this week.

 -- Noah Fant (4-51-0/4) hasn’t scored a TD in six games. He’s basically become a TE2 with Albert O. (5-41-1/5) rising up to TE2.

The past 6 games:

3.4 FF/7.2 PPR PPG from 3.8 rec. (4.8 targets), 33.7 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = Fant (last 6 games)

4.5 FF/7.7 PPR PPG from 3.2 rec. (3.7 targets), 35.0 yards, 0.2 TDs per game = Albert O. (last 6 games)

 -- So, this game began with a tribute to the late Demaryius Thomas. It was touching. Courtland Sutton (1-9-0/2) stayed off the field the first play to do a tribute…a 10-man huddle. Denver was penalized for it, but Detroit declined. Then Sutton came in solo to a rousing applause…Sutton being close with DT and Sutton a team leader. It was nice.

…but that’s why it was even more confusing to see Sutton get just 2 targets and one catch…a continuation of the total nothing he is producing for the team anymore besides a downfield decoy. It’s not him, it’s Teddy. If there was any game you were gonna plan to get Sutton going – versus Detroit in this emotional scenario would be it…and yet nothing.

That’s my cue, our cue to totally bail on Sutton for FF 2021.

He’s a buy low for 2022 right now, but pure unreliable FF-garbage for 2021 ROS right now.

Snap Counts of Interest:

59 = Sutton

52 = Patrick

41 = Jeudy

10 = Hinton

50 = Fant

38 = Albert O

40 = Zylstra

35 = Brock Wright

29 = Reynolds

28 = Igwebuike

03 = Jermar Jefferson

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

FFM

16 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: 49ers 26, Bengals 23

The Bengals were the better team here.

I keep saying that in Bengals games they lose. I have some justification for making those claims. Cincy has lost 6 games this season…four of them by three points, two of them in OT by three.

They were better than Green Bay Week 5 in their OT loss/missed FG festival game. They were better than the Chargers Week 13, when they lost by 19…down 24-0 in a blink, and then stormed right back into it but coughed up the comeback. They were better than SF here…clearly better, but when you fumble your first four kick/punt returns and lose two of them…you’re digging a hole that’s tough to come back from.

Cincy dug themselves a 20-6 hole on dumb return game turnovers, not on bad execution, and roared back to tie the game, dropped a game winning pick six with seconds remaining, going to OT and taking the lead, only to blow it in the end.

My bombastic statement of the day: Had the Bengals drafted Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater, instead of Ja’Marr Chase…the Bengals would be the best team in the AFC today.

They have a better defense than KC-LAC-TEN.

Their QB is just as good as KC-LAC…and way better than TEN-NE.

Their rookie kicker is a weapon now.

Their problem is they have the worst O-Line among the top AFC contenders. History will judge the selection of Chase over O-Line pick at #5 in the 2021 NFL Draft as a franchise damning move…just like Dallas’s Ezekiel over Ramsey pick that’s been forgotten over time…not by me.

If there is a benevolent football god, the Bengals will win the AFC North. They are that division’s best team. They are (7-6) now, one game out…but the leaders in Baltimore are on the ropes/potentially going to lose 3-4 of their next four games and flush out. If Cincy can go to Denver and beat them this week – the Bengals are likely going to win the AFC North. If they lose to Denver, then it’s still up in the air. We project Cincy to finish (9-8) and winners of the AFC North…but (8-9) is not out of the question.

San Francisco got a real gift win here. Not that they played poorly, but they got every advantage and still barely eked it out. They are now (7-6) and should win a minimum of 9 games and make the playoffs…but they got a shot at 10 wins and then a for-sure wild card trip. We see them at 9 wins.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’m not kidding… Joe Burrow (25-34 for 348 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is as good as AFC QB elite’s Mahomes-Herbert-Allen. For FF purposes, he’d run 4th in the pack – but in NFL terms he’s as good or better than them, I believe. Burrow has a Joe Montana, Tom Brady type of ability to run an offense, and over time he will be the emotional leader (he kinda already is in year two).

If Burrow is that good – there is a Fantasy future, a Dynasty opportunity. He’s not seen by the public as anywhere close to Mahomes-Herbert-Allen, but he might be there soon with big passer numbers ahead…especially if they get him an O-Line. But that’s the risk…they never do, they just keep drafting WRs instead. Arizona keeps drafting outside linebackers to not protect Kyler, so if they are missing the boat…Cincy for sure could and has.

Burrow has a tough finish, schedule-wise for FF 2021…DEN-BAL-KC, and all outdoor, potentially cold weather games. Still, he’s so good he might will his way to a string of 300+ yard and 2+ TD games.

 -- Jimmy Garoppolo (27-41 for 296 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) is pretty darn good in his own right. He’s Burrow lite…not as gifted, not as athletic but really solid with protection and is a team leader.

Jimmy G. has thrown for 2 TDs in a game in five of his last 6 games. He’s thrown for 290+ yards in a game in four of his last 7 games. He faces ATL this week…think he might do 290+/2+ again Week 15? Highly possible.

You know how to tell JG is playing really well? The amount of ‘San Francisco needs to just go ahead and start Trey Lance’ articles and social media snipes have gone from 400,000+ per week to near zero. There are more ‘maybe the 49ers should just roll with Jimmy G. in 2022’ discussions than ‘Where is Trey?’ bellyaching.

 -- Deebo Samuel (8-37-1, 1-22-0/1) is having the most bizarre season I may have ever seen in my decade+ of serious football observation.

First part of the season he’s doing fine/OK enough but then he would have that one wild, long TD play to make him an FF star every week. Then he totally changes gears and becomes a total dud of a WR but is suddenly the 49ers change of pace RB who cannot-not score a TD every week.

And Deebo doesn’t look great running the ball. He gets the handoff and starts scurrying, arms flailing and flapping…like a WR trying to play RB…but then it seems the defense is paralyzed by the sight of him carrying the ball and they watch him blow by everyone for a score.

In this game, the Bengals are the first team I’ve seen this season finally realize that when Deebo is lined up at RB…he’s 90% likely getting the ball. However, Deebo did shake loose for a jet sweep 27-yard untouched TD run…but 7 carries for 10 yards otherwise.

For the past three weeks, Deebo is like a Dontrell Hilliard or Tony Pollard…a secondary RB who is on a lucky TD run. In his last three games, Deebo’s receiving numbers:

Week 11 = 1 rec., 15 yards, 2 targets

Week 12 = 1 rec., 12 yards, 4 targets

Week 14 = 1 rec., 22 yards, 1 target

How can you be a ‘#1 WR’ and see 1 catch a game? But his carry counts have been 8-6-8 in a game in that same span.

If he doesn’t rush for a TD, he’d be deemed a borderline FF bust the past three games with his shift to the quasi-RB position. And he doesn’t even look that good running the ball – he’s nothing like Cordarrelle or Curtis Samuel/2020 or even Rondale Moore. But, somehow, he flaps his way to the end zone every week…so, why fight it?

 -- With shift of Deebo to change of pace RB, Brandon Aiyuk (6-62-1/10) has become the team’s new #1 WR. He’s a very shaky #1 WR…12 catches on 22 targets the past three games combined. But he’s getting WR2 looks and giving WR2 outputs, so why fight it?

 -- The real #1 WR among all the players in this game is Tee Higgins (5-114-0/7). Three-straight games with 110+ receiving yards. 9.7 targets per game the past three weeks. And he works with Joe Montana 2.0, so it’s onward and upward from here.

https://youtu.be/6L1eMkk_8Fo

 -- Ja’Marr Chase (5-77-2/8) is also getting a free ride off Joe Montana 2.0…in between several dropped passes, Chase will spring free, and Burrow will plant one on him for a score. To my wine critic, snobby football scouting eye sensibilities, Ja’Marr offends me…kinda like Deebo…not that they aren’t good players but their extreme outputs are above their reality. There are guys like Curtis Samuel, Rashod Bateman, Mike Williams, Bryan Edwards, Darnell Mooney, Michael Gallup, Deonte Harris, Chase Claypool, Courtland Sutton who are more gifted, in some cases WAY more gifted than Deebo-Ja’Marr, but they haven’t had the same luck and/or QB play to get the recognition…or FF payback.

Ja’Marr has officially dropped 11 passes, but I’d say it’s more like 17-20 so far…the ‘drop’ judgement calls by statisticians are about as bad as U.S. election tabulations. Open to interpretation and filled with bias.

 -- Jeff Wilson (13-56-0) has been forced to start twice, off Elijah Mitchell injuries, and he has done crap with those starts. He looks fine to my eyes on the tape, but then I see he has 44 carries for 139 yards this season…3.2 yards per carry. Why am I interested in him Week 15 if Mitchell is out again?  

 -- The Bengals defense was firing in this game…it’s just their special teams kept fumbling the ball away and putting them in bad positions. 5 sacks of JG…and 9 QB hits.

Cincy LB Joe Bachie (4 tackles) starting in the middle with Logan Wilson out…I thought he looked very promising. Very rangy and athletic. There’s an upside here.

 -- Evan McPherson (3/4 FGs, 2/2 XP) is averaging 2.5 FGs made per game the past 4 weeks. He’s also #1 in 50+ yard FGs (7) this season (tied with Chris Boswell). Just note for Week 15 – McPherson is a top long-distance kicker, and he plays at Denver in pretty perfect weather for December.

If Week 15 is do-or-die, and you get extra points for distance kicks, McPherson is set up to possibly be a PK savior this week.

Snap Counts of Interest:

40 = Mixon

28 = Perine

67 = Aiyuk

55 = Deebo

47 = Jauan Jennings

13 = Sherfield

42 = J Wilson

14 = Hasty

Ross Jacobs

FFM

16 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Seahawks 33, Texans 13 

I don't think I need to tell anyone that neither of these teams are very good. The Seahawks won by 20 but I would not call this a dominant win. They muddled around with Houston for 3 quarters before finally slamming the door shut late. It wasn't pretty.

Davis Mills was running roughshod over the Seattle defense much of the game and it wasn't anything great he was doing. I think this defense is about to get lit up by the Rams.

The Seahawks get to 5-8 with some playoff delusions in mind. The reality is that they still have to play the Rams and Cardinals, neither a likely win. That leaves the Lions and Bears as the two most likely remaining wins which would get them to 7-10, a respectable total considering Wilson's absence in the middle of the season, but still not remotely good enough to win this division much less make a run at a Superbowl.

Changes will be coming to Seattle this next year, and I think that's going to start with Pete Carroll getting fired right after the season is over. It's either him or Russell is going to demand a trade. Something's got to give. And if you're Seattle management, it's a no-brainer, you release Carroll and give Russell whatever he wants. Anything else would be a shock.

Houston...I don't know what to say about them anymore. It's a dumpster fire down there. It was a dumpster fire coming into the season and everyone knew it. This team is untalented, missing draft picks, no real future at QB, and a weak head coach. I see no good coming to the Texans for several years at least.

Fantasy Notes

--All bow before the great and powerful RC! Rashaad Penny (16-137-2) was a godsend for many of us at RB this week. I personally debated Penny versus Foreman quite hard and was ultimately swayed by my supreme trust in RC. It doesn't always work out, but more often than not it does, and this is one of his best. I was actually texting him early on how angry I was for trusting him as Foreman scored an early TD while Penny was rotating carries with Collins and Dallas...and then Penny scored to even it up...and then scored again late to finish with a monster day!

Before we get too carried away with our brand new RB1 toy however, I have to caution everyone that this may not be as great as we're all hoping. RC warned us that the Penny play might be a one week thing only, and after watching this game I would say that's a fair warning.

Yes, Penny is going to get a decent crack at seizing the starting workload after this performance. Yes, he looks much better than any other option Seattle has. But...we still have a few problems.

First, Penny looked good but he didn't look that good and he was still being rotated out an awful lot. Penny took the first couple carries, then Collins got a few, then Dallas, and it was a Penny lead but Collins mixed in after that. My eyes tell me this was as much a Houston run defense problem as anything Penny was doing. Mostly he just ran straight ahead and it worked out well because he's decently strong and decently fast. Collins had some good holes too. He just doesn't have Penny's speed to take advantage of them. You'd think Carroll would commit to him after this but we can't take that for granted just yet.

The second problem is that the Seattle offensive line still isn't very good and now they have to face the 7th ranked run defense of the Rams. The Texans are dead last in run defense for the record.

And our third problem is that Collins just got put on the COVID list. But Ross, that sounds like good news! Less competition for Penny. No, and here's why. Penny already beat out Collins for the job. However, now that Collins isn't available that means that Adrian Peterson is very likely going to be elevated from the practice squad, and we can't be totally sure that Carroll won't still have his head shoved all the way up Peterson's ass. I suspect that Peterson isn't going to just stand idly by as Penny takes 25 carries this week. He's going to play and take carries. How many carries is the question.

If you made me put a number on it, I would guess that Penny is a 70-30 lead over Peterson. That's just my guess however. If the Seahawks get down early to the Rams which is very likely, then it's very possible Penny doesn't even take but 10-12 carries. In that scenario he would need a TD to be a viable play, and note that he wasn't remotely involved in the passing game so we can't count on catches to supplement his stats either.

It's a risky play this week. There is upside hope that Seattle can hang around and run the ball well to control the possessions which could lead to a big game for Penny. But we could very likely see Seattle down early and abandoning the run in which case Penny likely finishes with 40-50 yards and we're all left disappointed. This call is going to depend on the state of your rosters, your opponents' lineups, and how much risk you're willing to tolerate. There's no one magical answer as to whether you should start Penny or not. I'm sure we'll be talking with RC a lot about this in the coming days, so be sure to tune into the video Q&A's as we dive deeper into the issue.

--Davis Mills (33-49 for 331 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) had himself a nice day. Is this an emerging talent or should we be skeptical of Mills against better defenses?

I'm going with skeptical for now. I didn't see anything special Mills was doing here. He just distributed the ball to wide open players most of the day and it still only led to 13 points. Mills isn't bad at all. He's plausible.

He's in the game manager category with Mac Jones. I would say Jones knows the X's and O's better, knows where to go with the ball and when, but Mills isn't as jumpy and willing to quickly ditch the ball at the first sign of an open receiver. Neither has a huge arm, but Mills is a bit stronger. Neither is mobile. I think Mac probably has a higher ceiling if he can work on his arm strength, but he should get better as a downfield passer with time. Mills looks a bit limited to me in that he doesn't get through his progressions as fast and tends to lock in on one guy a little too much. You could certainly do worse though.

I haven't decided yet if I think Houston will roll with Mills in 2022 or replace him with a rookie. It could go either way and likely will hinge on what they think of the rookie QB class. There's simply too much risk and no perceivable upside to stashing Mills in dynasty though. Spend that last roster spot on someone that has a better chance to crack through.

--Rex Burkhead sustained an injury during this game and will be out against the Jaguars. That means that Royce Freeman (11-15-0, 6-58-0/8) is going to be involved, but David Johnson's return complicates things. How much is Freeman's role worth? Hard to say.

The Houston line is very bad and there's just not much room to run. Jacksonville doesn't have an atrocious run defense but they aren't great either. The interesting thing is that Freeman got some pretty good ppr receiving work at the end of this game while Houston trailed. Will they be trailing against the Jaguars? Maybe. It'll probably be a competitive game.

If we knew Freeman was going to be the strong lead I'd say he could be in line for some decent work. In the Texans two wins this season, their lead RB averaged 22 carries per game. The second back averaged 10.5 per game. In their next most competitive game against the Patriots, Ingram logged 16 carries. Now nobody ever gets many yards on those carries because the offensive line is so bad, but it's fairly safe work nonetheless.

My guess is that Freeman is going to function as the lead power back with Johnson as the change-of-pace and 3rd down back which has been the pattern with Johnson when he's played with Burkhead and Ingram all year. If that happens and Houston can keep this competitive, then I would expect 15-20 carries for Freeman to go along with 2-3 catches. That should net him somewhere around 50-65 yards and maybe 20 yards through the air. In ppr that works out to 10-12 points and then maybe he gets lucky and falls in for a TD? Not bad.

To clarify, there's not much upside here. This offense stinks and Freeman isn't going to magically cure that. But if your RB spot has been decimated by injuries/covid and you're debating guys like Travis Homer or Corey Clement or Craig Reynolds, then maybe Freeman is an upgrade over those options. Of course this all depends on my assumption that Freeman will be the lead over Johnson being correct. I'll be discussing this option more with RC soon.

*RC NOTES: I’m not sure what HOU will do at RB this week, but my early lean would be more David Johnson than not…Culley wants to win. And Freeman isn’t great and the Jags D-Line/run D is OK and now fired up minus Urban…and I’m warming up to Craig Reynolds in garbage time. 

--Nico Collins (5-69-0/10) has definitely established himself as the #2 option behind Brandin Cooks and is looking better and better every week. I'm not sure star is on the table just yet, but he's moving around so much better and more confidently than he was early in the season. He won't be a totally crazy play against the Jaguars honestly. He's a WR4 but going up against a weak secondary with a good shot at a TD this week.

--Like I mentioned last week, the future at TE for Houston is Brevin Jordan (4-26-1/7) and the future might be here already. Don't see anything special about him or this situation though. I have zero interest in him in dynasty or redraft.

IDP Notes

--Kamu Grugier-Hill was off to another good day before getting injured. His knee injury was feared to be quite bad at first, but it looks like he could be back sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, he was placed on the COVID list shortly after, so he's likely out this week. Christian Kirksey is the likely beneficiary if KGH can't play. Kirksey would be a decent streaming option at LB against a Jaguars team that is likely going with a heavy James Robinson plan this week in the absence of Urban Meyer.

Snap Counts of Interest

66 = Brandin Cooks

57 = Nico Collins

46 = Chris Conley

52 = Pharaoh Brown

29 = Brevin Jordan

35 = Rashaad Penny

14 = Alex Collins

11 = DeeJay Dallas

R.C. Fischer

FFM

16 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Bucs 33, Bills 27

There will be opportunities to correct it in the future, maybe…but with this loss, I believe the Buffalo Bills have been corrupted for good. They are the fallen angels of the NFL – what was a high-potential #1 seed/Super Bowl threat a month+ ago has now become a generic wild card chase team.

It’s not that this one loss is damaging their record type of complaint…that’s not what I mean. I mean this loss combined with the Patriots loss the prior week is a 1-2 punch of emotional devastation that I do not believe the Bills can get back up from…not just this season, like this was a grenade thrown into this current Bills team’s current and near-future. The past few weeks have derailed this current Bills iteration for good – only team mgt. won’t acknowledge it and they’ll try and hang on with the current group way too long before making wholesale changes.  

Bill Belichick is such a luminary…and the Patriots have been such a gold standard of crushing the AFC East under its heel for two decades, but then Buffalo broke the streak of excellence and won the AFC East in 2020. It seemed like the Bills would be the new power for years to come. And then less than a year later, Belichick with his rookie QB went to Buffalo and out-toughed and outsmarted the Bills to win a pivotal game launching the Patriots strongly into 1st-place in the AFC East.

The follow up/next week’s game could not be worse for Buffalo…this game with Tom Brady, who was also a main reason why the Bills and the AFC East were dominated all those years. If the Bills could bounce back strong and beat Tampa…then the Bills would have shown they can shake off a bad weather game loss as a fluke and are ready to take back the AFC East over the next 4 weeks. It was an ‘everything’ you’d want to know about the soul of the Bills type moment here in Week 14.

So with that…the Bills came out flat, scared and down 24-3 at halftime…and you knew it was over…over for the game, over for the franchise being an AFC beast. But then the Bills chipped back into the game in the 2nd-half and miraculously tied it with seconds remaining – the Bills were trying to win their soul back from the brink and had sent it to OT.

The Bills won the OT coin toss and it looked like they were going to save their soul after all. Nope. Three and out, and then you knew Brady would waltz down the field to win it on his first attempt…and he did. The Bills soul was dealt another death blow.

You can see it in Sean McDermott’s face in these big games. He’s on the sidelines looking like a nervous, uncomfortable, agitated adult about to give a public speech from a podium having never done so before in their life. He looks super-nervous, to me. The past two weeks, he moves around the sidelines differently than in other games. He was visibly rattled v. Belichick Week 13, right away…and the team took on the coach’s uptightness. And then in this game the team came out flat vs. Tampa, but then rallied back (when there was not as much pressure) and McDermott starts acting strange…too fired up, too holding his breath in the big moments. I think it all rubs off on the team…he’s not their chin up, fearless leader. He’s just another nervous football nerd who makes his team nervous, and who plays the game NOT TO LOSE. In this game, the Bills were 2-for-13 on 3rd-downs…that’s a team choking…because they are better than that the past 2-3 seasons. 6-for-27 on 3rd-downs the past two weeks of pressure cooker games.

This loss was bigger than just the NFL loss in a week. I think it was the final blow to a staggering group of players. It exposed the coach who has been really solid, steady in most games…but I saw the concern with him in the playoffs last season -- he puckers up in big games, and in this NE-TB 1-2 punch of games the past two weeks, he showed it again. You can see it in his face and body language.

I respect Sean McDermott, but ‘I’m out’ on him as a great NFL head coach. He’s a fine, good, solid, better-than-most team manager -- but I don’t want him coaching my team in a huge moment, in a big game. Another idol falls.

Buffalo is now (7-6), which is an embarrassment for a team that has been mostly healthy all year. That loss to Jacksonville a while back – it was not a fluke…it was a warning, a foreshadowing. The Bills have lost four of their last 6 games. Fortunately, they have an easy schedule from here and should get to 10 wins and a wild card. And they might win a playoff game if they’re an underdog, but no way they make a title run. No Tre’Davious White…no chance. No chance if Sean McDermott is on the sidelines privately quivering in big spots and that rubbing off on his team.

Tampa Bay is one of the four best teams in the NFL, and all four of those teams are in the NFC. Arizona, Green Bay, Tampa Bay are the kings of the NFL right now -- and Dallas might get up in there to make noise if they could get everyone healthy. The Bucs are now (10-3) and have an easy schedule, so they should sweep the rest of the way and wind up (14-3) and only Green Bay can give them a race.

I think whoever is the #1 seed between GB and TB will win the NFC due to the weather advantage for the homefields. Tampa Bay has the easiest path to that #1 seed now.

Please God, may we have a Tampa v. New England Super Bowl?

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Josh Allen (36-54 for 308 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 12-109-1) singlehandedly got his team to overtime from a 24-3 deficit at the half. Allen is the entire offense. The concern being for Week 15, for FF…Allen hurt his toe and it may restrict him some, get him off his mechanics that are so key (for him).

I think Allen plays Week 15, but probably throttles back his running some…but he may have to throw caution to the wind as this team is drowning, but if they subdue sad Carolina quickly, he may not have to be Superman. But this Week 15 game is going to be played at a very cold Buffalo field…which makes the passing game struggle (the drops come out from them in the cold) and if Allen isn’t fully himself…yikes, for FF upside.

A bad FF-time for all this chaos to be added into the decision-making mix.

 -- I like the Buffalo passing game…when the weather conditions are favorable. I am getting to worry about it when the weather is off. These receivers drop too many passes in rougher weather and Allen inadvertently throws the ball so hard that in cold and/or rain, it can be an issue for the best of receivers…not to mention the overall shaky receivers of the Bills (outside of Diggs).

This week the weather will be ‘feels like’ mid-teens with some wind. Not a good projection for the Buffalo passing game…and with Allen having a not-100% toe issue.

On paper, Gabriel Davis (5-43-1/8) is becoming a nice sleeper for the Bills passing game, for FF…especially with Emmanuel Sanders faltering and out with injury. Davis has TDs in back-to-back games. If this Week 15 game was in a dome, then Davis might be a WR2 projection with Sanders out. But in the cold, Week 15, with a shaky-handed Davis…he’s a shaky WR3 hopeful/risk.

And Buffalo might have colder weather games the rest of the way, so Davis has a somewhat pressured upside as a new starter with Sanders out.

 -- The Bills could use a run game with the cold weather, but their main run attack is Josh Allen…and his now gimpy toe.

When the weather was brutal Week 13, Zach Moss emerged out of hiding taking the most touches – a bigger, plodding runner in the cold. Here in this Florida game…Moss didn’t see the field. He’ll probably be the lead for Buffalo in Week 15’s colder event…but that’s only an RB3-4 type hopeful.

The Matt Breida (3-12-0, 0-0-0/1) 15 minutes of fame in Buffalo seems to have expired.

 -- Breshad Perriman (1-58-1/2) was the surprise game-winning TD throw for Brady in OT. Perriman has been a ghost most of his time in Tampa the last few weeks. I don’t think anything is building with Perriman…he just had a moment.

Antonio Brown will be back next week and take back his job.

And I don’t care what Bruce Arians says/hints/is on the fence about…if he was going to drop AB due to the vaxx card thing, he would have done it already. Tom Brady runs the team, and Brady will not allow it. AB has done a thousand times worse, and the Bucs were fine with signing him. This vaxx card thing is going to get swept under the rug – my prediction. Which means, Week 16…AB is back…an option for the FF playoff run.

 -- The Bills defense got pushed around by the Bucs in this game. No Tre’Davious White is killing them…now (0-2) without White. The Bills cannot be taken seriously in the playoffs without White. They will be solid against CAR Week 15, and ATL Week 17…and maybe OK Week 16 at NE. But in the playoffs, no way they can run the table without him.

 -- The Bucs-DST has an awesome finishing schedule…NO-CAR-NYJ-CAR their final 4 games of the NFL season. They are a solid DST start in each one of them.

Snap Counts of Interest:

64 = Singletary

11 = Breida

69 = Diggs

65 = G Davis

63 = Beasley

78 = Godwin

77 = Evans

49 = Tyler J

26 = Perriman

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Titans 20, Jaguars 0

This game was a bit of a scuffle for 2.5 quarters, just 10-0 Titans leading…but it was really never in doubt. The Jaguars have no life, no offense they can muster…while the Titans have little offense as well, but they do have an emerging defense, so the Jags never got close to scoring and the Titans mustered enough offense to plod their way to a victory.

Tennessee is now (9-4) and right in the mix for the AFC #1 seed still, which is shocking because they aren’t very good without Derrick Henry but they keep getting huge schedule breaks. Huge game with PIT on the road this week. If the Titans lose to PIT, they will project to fall to an (11-6) finish and probably not a #1 seed. But if they beat PIT this week, 12 wins are very possible and a legit chance at the #1 seed.

The Jaguars are (2-11), probably headed to (2-15). In all my years of following the NFL, I’ve never seen anything like this Urban Meyer situation. He’s arguably the worst, most disconnected on-field coach I’ve ever witnessed, the worst evaluator of talent, the worst GM/personnel dealer, and he has all this off-field baggage from his bar incident, and the players and coaches and media and general public all hate him. Who is going to sign as a free agent to come play for this guy?

They should have fired him already, but the things billionaires and millionaires do and the secrets they have are things we don’t know. We see an obvious situation that should result in a quick change…but it hasn’t happened. Pure speculation/wonderings by me…but we don’t know what kind of freaky stuff Meyer and Khan are intermingled off the field, the secrets one might have with the other.

We know Urban Meyer is a pig. Patriots owner Robert Kraft was visiting $10 hookers in bad neighborhoods in Florida (and had it all swept under the rug, because he’s a billionaire and you’re not). Jerry Jones is a purported freak show off the field. We don’t know what Shad Khan is into with Urban. Sounds like a reach by me – but is it? Maybe they’re as clean as the wind driven snow…but maybe not? It’s the only thing I can reach for to understand why Khan hasn’t fired Meyer 10x over already.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The Tennessee backfield report, after watching this game and really focusing in on the RB flow, here’s my general feel…

D’Onta Foreman (13-47-1, 2-15-0/2) started and was in most every snap of the first series…a long, steady TD drive…capped off by Foreman rushing it in for a TD.

Dontrell Hilliard (6-13-0, 0-0-0/2) started the second series and was in and out with Foreman most of the 1st-half.

The first half was mostly Foreman, with some Hilliard and light Jeremy McNichols (8-16-0, 0-0-0/1)…McNichols who was the team’s 3rd-down back until he got concussed and then Hilliard came in and stole it -- and this was McNichols first game back from that injury.

Foreman got dinged up in-game as the Titans seized control, so Foreman was out for a bit and Hilliard got more work and then McNichols played a lot more as the game was really subdued. And Foreman was not seen in the 4th-quarter, nor much of the 3rd-quarter.

The final snap counts:

27 = McNichols

24 = Hilliard

23 = Foreman

The final touch counts:

15 = Foreman

08 = McNichols

06 = Hilliard

My overview would be: The Titans worked behind Foreman early. When Hilliard was put in, he seemed to remember (this week) that he’s ‘Dontrell Hilliard’ and he was ineffective/awful (tackled easily, and a nothing in the pass game). McNichols kinda re-took the passing game RB role over midgame because Hilliard was so sluggish…and then they went heavy McNichols to finish it off, I think to get the rust off of him upon his return to action.

Hilliard may have lost his key role he had the weeks prior back to McNichols. Foreman was the Derrick Henry-alike and might have had 20+ carries if he didn’t get dinged up and the game being under control to allow him to just sit out.

We’ll monitor Foreman’s injury/practice week, but this looks like Foreman as the strong lead. McNichols as the passing game back. Hilliard in-between. Anyone could be the hot hand, but the real effort looks like Foreman to pound it and McNichols/Hilliard in on obvious passing downs…even though Foreman is the best receiver among them.

 -- James Robinson (6-4-0) was the unquestioned lead back for Jacksonville, and still is…but as his heel is an issue, and as the coach disrespected him a couple of weeks ago, and as the team spirals down – JRob’s FF output is dying. He may be an RB2.5-3.0 the rest of the way now in this mess.

No TDs the past three games and under 30 yards rushing in three of his last 4 games.

 -- You know how I feel about Trevor Lawrence (24-40 for 221 yards, 0 TDs/4 INTs), which is – not buying the generational thing or even the really good thing. This game was a bad performance on paper…but he wasn’t really that awful. He’s in an impossible situation that as the game goes on, he tries to make plays downfield to spark the dying offense…and he got picked…a lot. I won’t blast TL fully…this whole team is playing dead and at least Lawrence is trying to make things happen. He just has zero help…and he’s not that talented.

 -- Laquon Treadwell (4-68-0/6) is still operating as the (seemingly) best FF WR for the Jags, but that’s no better than 4-5 catches for 40-70 yards in a game, and almost no chance at a TD.

Lawrence has 1 TD pass in his last 6 games.

Which makes Ryan Tannehill’s (20-31 for 191 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) 4 TDs/6 INTs his past five games seem ‘explosive’ by comparison. Tannehill died, as a passer, without Derrick Henry.

 -- Tannehill’s best receiver, right now, is Julio Jones (4-33-0/6) but it’s more of a capable ‘good hands’ option, no longer an explosive playmaking one.

Anthony Firkser (4-34-0/5) was open a lot in this game, but Firkser is a random event TE…not to be relied upon for FF.

Firkser’s yards in a game his last 8 games: 9-8-7-2-26-7-34.

 -- Urban Meyer was asked something about why the young players weren’t playing more, and he commented on rookie safety Andre Cisco (1 tackle) playing more this game on defense…and then it was revealed Cisco played 0 snaps on defense this game (17 on special teams).

Again, I have never seen anything like this Urban Meyer stint in the NFL.

 -- The Titans-DST is getting better and better, as they get healthier and healthier. They got the shutout here, but against the Jags it’s not a momentous feat.

The Titans-DST should be decent against PIT Week 15. They might be solid Weeks 16-17 hosting SF and MIA. There is some FF DST hope here the rest of the way. Not perfect but perking up and has potential.

One of the emerging bright spots on this defense is Kristian Fulton (4 tackles, 2 PDs, 1 INT) is starting to become one of the top 10-15 cover corners in the league.

Snap Counts of Interest:

52 = Westbrook-Ikhine

43 = Hollister

32 = Julio

35 = JRob

12 = Hyde

04 = Ogunbowale

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year! Hopefully…

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies. 

Ross Jacobs

FFM

15 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Falcons 29, Panthers 21 

I hate both of these coaching staffs so much right now. Arthur Smith and Matt Rhule both make so many inexplicable decisions but in different areas.

I will admit Smith's offense is starting to grow on me a little. They are getting better as the year wears on, especially on the offensive line. What was once one of the worst groups in the league has now turned into a decent unit. Mostly it's just the personnel holding this team back...except for one glaring issue. For the love of all that is holy, why do the Falcons not make more of an effort to get Kyle Pitts involved in the game?

I simply don't understand it. You drafted a TE 4th overall because he's clearly a generational athlete and talent, he should be breaking the game right now, but instead you've got him running boring ass routes from 1993 and there's no effort to intentionally target him. It's mystifying. I absolutely love Pitts the player. I hate how he's being used. I do think Smith is going to make this into a good offense once they get a better QB, but I'm not sure he knows how to creatively maximize the talents of Pitts. I'm getting more and more afraid that we are in for a decent career from Pitts, the kind of career where he continually finishes in the top 3-5 TE's for fantasy, good, solid, but not transcendent like he should be.

Part of the problem is Matt Ryan just sucks now and can't hit Pitts even if he's wide open (which he's usually not through no fault of his own). Ryan keeps throwing such atrocious passes to him that Pitts has to make ridiculous adjustments just to catch the ball. Ryan has possibly one more year left in Atlanta and that's only a possibility because the Falcons are going to have poor draft position to nab a top QB.

Which brings me to my beef with Matt Rhule. His fatal flaw so far has been his choice of QB's. He dumped Cam for Bridgewater, then Bridgewater for Darnold, then Darnold got hurt so he brought Cam back, and he's got Walker backing all of them up. Rhule deserves to be fired simply for his gross mismanagement of this one thing.

After this carousel of ineptitude, Carolina really only has one course of action this off-season...they have to land an elite QB through a trade. The most likely candidate, and probably their only hope, is Deshaun Watson. Get him and your problems (short-term ones anyway) are over (assuming he's cleared of all criminal charges). Don't get him and you're facing a PR nightmare heading into another season with garbage at the helm. The seat is already getting quite hot for Mr. Rhule. I would recommend he not let his wife choose any more of their draft picks and stop bringing in guys he coached in college just because he knows them. That recipe never works out well for college guys.

The Panthers’ defense has been on a skid the last three weeks against some less than stellar offenses. What happened to that nasty, aggressive defense from early in the season? Not much honestly. They are still pretty good. The issue is that the offense is doing them no favors constantly turning the ball over. Regardless of their problems though, there's no way you can start them the rest of the year, not against this schedule. The Bucs twice, the Bills, and the Saints. Not a recipe for success. Steer clear.

The Falcons defense you could think about using against the Lions in a pinch, but I can't recommend them anywhere else. They aren't terrible, but you should be able to find better streaming options.

Fantasy Notes

--So what's going on with Cam Newton (15-23 for 178 yards 0 TD/1 INT, 10-47-1) and PJ Walker (6-12 for 75 yards 1 TD/1 INT)? Newton started the game and got pulled at one point because of an injury. But after a few more mistakes he was pulled for real and Walker was inserted at QB. Then for some reason Cam rotated back in for a few snaps, then was out again, and finally came back in to finish the game off after it was clear Walker was failing hard.

Honestly, Cam didn't play all that badly. He did throw a pick 6 after a LB dropped into coverage from a weird spot and lost a fumble trying to hand the ball off after slipping, but for the most part it wasn't terrible. Walker was terrible and won't be starting, that I'm sure of. Cam will start until Darnold is healthy.

If the Panthers were playing some weak teams I'd say fire Cam up in 4-pt leagues, but he's playing the Bills and Bucs and Saints...not defenses you want to mess with. I think this is going to be a bloodbath coming up for Carolina. Do not be afraid of this offense. They are very mistake prone right now. The Bills, wounded though they are, are going to kill them and the Bucs might join the party too now that they are getting healthy again. In fact, Tampa is a great stash for your week 16 championship matchups and most people won't be on them because they still remember the Bucs getting beaten up on early in the season.

--I've discussed Kyle Pitts (5-61-0/6) so much this year and I'm sick of saying the same thing every week. Nothing is changing here. You're getting 5-7 targets for 4 or 5 catches and about 50 yards every week. No touchdowns to speak of because Ryan doesn't throw many and all the scores go to Patterson anyways. Pitts is just another TE2 right now. He's not even in the TE1 discussion because he can't score. There. You're welcome. I just jinxed myself and he'll go 7-81-2/9 next week just because I said he's nothing. I'll even bench him on my own team just to guarantee it...

--Qadree Ollison (5-23-0) was strangely in the game late icing the clock with Mike Davis. Patterson wasn't seen the entire 4th quarter. I'm not sure what that was about since there doesn't seem to be any injury for Patterson. I guess Arthur Smith just wanted to give Patterson a rest and knew he could salt it away with the other two?

Whatever the reason, Ollison took some important late carries to run the clock out and looked the same he's looked whenever he's gotten the chance. He's a solid, straight ahead power runner. Think D'Onta Foreman, a very poor man's Derrick Henry, the generic brand Henry. I don't really see a future for Ollison, not as a starter. Maybe he takes some backup carries if the team moves on from Davis, but they'll draft another RB to take over for Patterson when he's done. Ollison is ok, but he's never going to be the starter here or anywhere else. Don't waste your time in dynasty.

--Robby Anderson (7-84-1/12) finally had a good game. He won't get another. A good chunk of his work here came with the Panthers trailing late and the Falcons playing soft defense. It also came with Walker at QB for obvious reasons (they played together for Rhule at Temple). Once Cam is back at QB Robby won't matter again.

--Brandon Zylstra (4-45-0/5) is rotating in over Terrace Marshall for the WR3 spot and looks like the better option. It's damning for Marshall that he couldn't take this job with everything going for him including his college coach at offensive coordinator. Joe Brady is gone now, so Marshall doesn't even have that going for him in 2022. Things are not looking up for him.

IDP Notes

--Jeremy Chinn (13 tackles) has been on fire lately. One of the best young safeties in the game along with Kyle Duggar. His numbers could be down a little against the Bills this week because they rarely run, but he's an auto-start against the Bucs and Saints.

Snap Counts of Interest

38 = Ameer Abdullah

25 = Chuba Hubbard

62 = Robby Anderson

57 = DJ Moore

36 = Brandon Zylstra

30 = Terrace Marshall

35 = Ian Thomas

34 = Tommy Tremble