Ross Jacobs

FFM

30 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Raiders 36, Cowboys 33

I won't bore anyone with all the details of the scoring here, but suffice it to say the Raiders came out swinging and took the fight right to the Cowboys. They were not scared or intimidated at all and jumped out to a quick lead.

Dallas didn't roll over, however, and fought back throughout the game. They had a chance to win it in overtime after tying up the game with less than a minute left, but penalties backed them up near their own goal line, and the Raiders were able to capitalize on the mistakes to kick the winning field goal.

It's an untimely loss for Dallas as they fall to 7-4 with two straight losses as Washington is surging to try and catch them. There are two games remaining between the two teams, so the NFC East is suddenly open again. I have to think Dallas pulls it out in the end, but this race is going to be a lot closer than it looked just 2 or 3 weeks ago.

For the Raiders this was a huge win to stop a 3-game slide. They pull back to 6-5 with their playoff chances still intact. They are tied with the Broncos and Chargers a half game behind the Chiefs. Winning the division doesn't seem likely, but a wildcard spot could still happen. The schedule isn't easy though with games against all three division rivals, the Colts, the Browns, and Washington still left to go. I'm guessing they finish with 8 or 9 wins and possibly sneak into the playoffs on tiebreakers depending on how those games play out. They absolutely need to beat the Chargers and Broncos to have a real chance.

Fantasy Notes

--What's going on with Ezekiel Elliott (9-25-1, 6-24-0/8)? Apparently he suffered a bone bruise in his knee against the Panthers in week 4. It's been causing him quite a bit of pain since then, but I'm not sure if that's the real cause for concern. There were multiple games in the month after the injury where he was taking 20-25 total touches and everything seemed fine.

I think he can play through the pain just fine, but there is some talk of the team scaling back his touches to allow him to rest this week. There's been no indication from the team that he will sit outright, so I don't expect that to happen. And even if the team “scales back his touches,” they've already been scaled back the past 3 weeks so there's not much room for things to get worse. My best guess is he takes 10-12 carries or so plus his usual 3-5 catches. It's not RB1 work, but it's still usable.

Personally I believe the real issue with Zeke's lack of production has to do with Tyron Smith's injury. Smith missed Denver, KC, and Atlanta games with an injury and only returned here against the Raiders. I don't believe he was at 100% however as he wasn't moving as well as usual and committed multiple penalties because he kept getting beaten.

To support this argument I would have you look at Tony Pollard's stats. The perception is that Pollard has been much more effective than Zeke the past few weeks, and while there is some truth to that, it's not the entire story.

Weeks 9-12:

Elliott: 42 carries, 149 yards, 3.54 ypc

Pollard: 32 carries, 139 yards, 4.39 ypc

Week 1-8:

Elliott: 118 carries, 571 yards, 4.84 ypc

Pollard: 68 carries, 392 yards, 5.76 ypc

So we see that both players have lost about 1.3 ypc over the past month while Smith was hurt. Pollard has been the more efficient back over the season, but that can be explained as a combination of the different type runs of the two RB's (Zeke more up the middle and Pollard more edge runs) and Pollard's lesser workload. It's much easier to be efficient when you have less strain on your body.

In addition, three of the past four games the Cowboys have been losing the majority of the game. Negative game script means more passing and less carries. The one game that they did win against Atlanta was a complete blowout and there was no need for Zeke to stay in the game taking carries.

I'm not pointing this out to denigrate Tony Pollard. My point is only that Zeke's struggles are likely out of his control and don't have much to do with his injury.

It's possible that Zeke will take a few less carries on Thursday against the Saints to help him rest his knee. It's also possible Smith needs another week to fully recover. The Saints have also had one of the best run defenses in the league this year. Add it all up and there's plenty of reason to be worried about Zeke's numbers this week. Next week against Washington though, I think we're going to see Zeke bounce back in a big way with closer to his normal 17-20 carries and increased effectiveness with Smith back. Assuming Washington's defense isn't suddenly becoming a juggernaut again, Zeke could finish up the last stretch of this year very strong indeed.

--If Zeke can't/doesn't suit up on Thursday though, you almost have to start Pollard just for the sheer volume. The Saints are a tough run defense, but Pollard is one of, if not the best, backup RB in the league. If you know he's the lead dog without Zeke you start him no questions asked.

--Michael Gallup (5-108-0/8) played well here in place of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. It's honestly hard to tell the three receivers apart at times. I don't feel like the gap between them is as large as the media makes it out to be. I see no reason Gallup couldn't be a #1 receiver for a new team next year. He's likely going to make a bundle in free agency this year. I don't know why, but I have a feeling the Jaguars make a run at him.

--After Gallup leaves, Cedrick Wilson (7-104-0/10) could become the new #3 WR, but he's also a free agent and could get a deal to go somewhere else. No idea what his market could be, but I have to guess it won't be much as he doesn't carry a high draft position tag to let other teams know it's ok to pay him. What's the point of overpaying guys like Cooper and Lamb though when Wilson can step in like this and put up a 100 yard game?

--Dalton Schultz (3-46-1/7) is still a big part of this offense as I talked about last week. No need to fade him. He's still a top 5-6 TE.

--We've talked about it all year, Hunter Renfrow (8-134-0/9) is Carr's bff. He's the new Edelman and nothing is going to change that. In his last 5 games Renfrow has only caught less than 7 passes one time. He typically doesn't get a ton of yards to go with it, but he was able to get open further downfield a couple times here. Most weeks you can expect about 6 catches for 50 yards. He's still a nice ppr option but isn't worth nearly as much in standard leagues.

--Darren Waller (2-33-0/5) suffered a strained IT band in his knee here. Considering what it could have been, this is best case scenario for him. It's possible he needs a week off, but it shouldn't take much longer than that. He still hasn't been a top fantasy option since week 1 though.

--If Waller sits then Foster Moreau becomes an interesting streaming option. He caught 6 passes for 60 yards last time Waller was out and he even got 5 targets here after Waller left the game. For some reason he seems to get better usage than Waller does as the starter. I have no clue why, but it seems to be the case. Need a TE streamer this week? Moreau is as good as any and likely completely free as nobody in your league even knows who he is.

--DeSean Jackson (3-102-1/4) made a splashy play catching a deep crossing route early in the game then breaking a tackle to score the first TD of the game. He's playing the Henry Ruggs role now which means most weeks he's not usable for fantasy and some weeks he's going to catch 2-4 passes for 100 yards and a score. Good luck guessing which weeks are the good ones.

--The WR we might actually be interested in is Zay Jones (5-59-0/7). This was the first time all year I've seen an effort to get him the ball (contrasted with Bryan Edwards who plays the most useless “starter” snaps in the league) It wasn't a fluke, there was a plan. Will it hold up next week? Maybe. He's still only the second look at WR and Carr likes to spread the ball around a lot. I don't think anything serious is emerging, but it's possible you could use him if you were really desperate. Maybe he gets you 10 ppg in ppr leagues.

IDP Notes

--We've covered it for several weeks now, but Micah Parsons (5 tackles, 1 sack) has DROY all but sewn up. He is playing lights out, and after watching him for several weeks now I think I like him better as a pass rusher than as an off-ball linebacker. Go figure.

--Trysten Hill (5 tackles) was a 2nd round pick at defensive tackle in 2019. He's an incredibly talented player, athletic and very disruptive, but he fell to the 2nd round of the draft for a reason. Attitude and maturity issues have dogged him since college and it's held him back so far in the NFL. He's only started 5 games in his career so far, all of them in 2020.

He has finally worked his way back into games with his first time coming 3 weeks ago against the Falcons. His snaps have gone up each week since and reached 45% against the Raiders. You see the kinds of stats he can put up when available. This guy could be an absolute stud for the Cowboys inside.

Trouble is, he nearly ended up with a suspension here after he punched a Raider lineman in the head after the game was over. He'll be lucky to walk away with just a fine.

It's just another reminder of the issues holding him back. He finally gets his chance to play and nearly throws it away over something stupid. Unless he gets this kind of thing under control quickly, he's going to be out of the league sooner rather than later. He could be one of the best in the league if he does, but I've seen nothing to suggest that's going to happen. He's had long enough now to clean it up and hasn't yet. Why should we believe his next chance will be any different?

Snap Counts of Interest

47 = Ezekiel Elliott

31 = Tony Pollard

77 = Foster Moreau

21 = Darren Waller

64 = Hunter Renfrow

63 = Bryan Edwards (dead to me)

60 = Zay Jones

42 = DeSean Jackson

57 = Josh Jacobs

16 = Kenyan Drake

Ross Jacobs

FFM

30 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Bears 16, Lions 13

You've got to be kidding me with this game. Anyone that has Bears or Lions season tickets...why? Can someone explain it to me? These two teams are the worst. How is it that in the year 2021, with all the amazing talent available, that these two groups are trotted out and called professional football teams? It's a crime against football.

This game was bad in case you haven't figured that out yet. Literally the worst thing I've watched all year. I can't capture in words just how boring and forgettable this game actually was. 

I'm not even going to bother with the outlook for these two “teams.” Obviously the Lions are far and away the worst team in the league. Maybe they get lucky and win a game somewhere? It's going to take some luck. They are awful.

The Bears aren't much better. Maybe they win 2 more games somehow? It's possible.

Fantasy Notes

--Well, I didn't see this coming. The Lions shut down David Montgomery (17-46-0, 3-28-0/3) but how when they've been getting gashed all year? That's an easy answer. Because they stacked the line with defenders because absolutely nobody is scared of Andy Dalton (24-39 for 317 yards, 1 TD/1 INT). Montgomery needs Fields to come back and soon. The threat of the QB taking off running opens holes for RB's. I love Montgomery's schedule of run defenses left and think he could be a league winner down the home stretch.

--Now do you believe me about Darnell Mooney (5-123-0/8)? He is so good. Just note that this did come against the Lions and they were daring Dalton to beat them deep. Mooney made them pay a couple of times. While I like the schedule for Montgomery, I do not like it for Mooney. Lot of tough pass defenses coming up, and Fields isn't the most accurate passer ever. I love Mooney as much as anyone, but I don't like his situation.

--What's up with Cole Kmet (8-65-0/11)? Didn't you say he was a slug? Yes, I did, and yes, he is a slug. 

The best way I can describe him is as an even slower, stiffer version of his Notre Dame compatriot Kyle Rudolph and keep in mind Rudolph was slow for a TE when he was drafted in 2011. Kmet would have made a fine TE 15-20 years ago, in the days when Jason Witten was a thing. But in 2021 we have freaks like Kyle Pitts roaming around. The fact the Kmet is actually starting is an utter shame and yet another black mark for this front office.

All he ever does is run 5-10 yards down the field and turn around for a simple curl pass. I mean, I guess it works ok because defenses could not give a rip whether he's actually covered or not. It's not like he's going to run away from anyone. He's literally the least threatening skill position player on this offense so most times nobody even bothers with him. Dalton took full advantage by throwing checkdown after checkdown to him. Nobody else is open so why not?

Once Fields comes back I think these numbers go back to normal, 3-4 catches for 30-40 yards or so. The connection is there if you're TE desperate. Personally, I'd rather gamble on someone with more upside in a better offense like Foster Moreau.

--The best player I saw outside Mooney was former Dolphin Jakeem Grant (2-25-0/4). He made a couple of really nice plays and was absolutely the fastest guy on the field. Of course, after his two successful catches provided a spark during an offensive lull (if you can call it that during a game with a combined 29 points), Grant never saw the ball again because Matt Nagy is a subtle genius and cannot be questioned. I wouldn't be surprised though if his role grew a little bit more next week. Maybe the Bears just stumbled across their version of Jamal Agnew?

--I can't believe I still have to say this, but clearly, clearly Jared Goff (21-25 for 171 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) is not the problem for this offense. I get so tired of hearing how he hasn't won a game without the magical unicorn coach Sean McVay (whose team has lost their last 3 games while the QB he traded Goff and multiple 1st round picks for has three pick 6's in each game).

Stafford is still the exact same guy he was in Detroit, a talented but flawed QB that can't carry a team, and Goff is still the same guy he was with the Rams, a talented but flawed QB that can't carry a team. The difference between them is negligible. The only thing that changed was McVay's confidence in Goff.

Detroit can build around Goff if they so choose, and they should. He's a good QB, good enough to win a Superbowl with the right team around him. He just doesn't have remotely the right team right now. That is still probably 3 years away at best.

--Just as D'Andre Swift was getting going he hurts himself again. I'm afraid that's going to be a recurring pattern for him the next few years. Don't worry though because the team will give him a massive contract extension that they immediately regret when he misses 10 games again next year.

Swift reportedly has some kind of shoulder strain. The Lions are calling him day to day, but I'm not sure how accurate that is. We'll have to monitor the situation this week. I wouldn't be surprised if he needed a week to rest. Doubt it's much worse than a week or two though.

--If Swift is out, expect a heavy dose of Jamaal Williams (15-65-0, 5-18-0/5) because it's more important that we give the slow-ass veteran on a winless team 20 carries than see what we have in Godwin Igwebuike. The Lions couldn't care less that Igwebuike is averaging 14.2 ypc. They don't care that he ripped off a 42 yard run three weeks ago, and they don't care that he took his single carry here for 11 yards. Nope. We need more Williams plowing ahead for 2 yards! That's how you win games, by being tougher than the other guy and biting kneecaps or something...

If Swift really is out though, I imagine we see a small handful of carries from Igwebuike and Jermar Jefferson, but it also wouldn't surprise me if this idiotic coaching staff gave more of them to Jefferson for some stupid reason like “he's more experienced as a RB” as if that matters when you're 0-10-1. IF for whatever reason Igwebuike does see significant carries and does something with them, he's still getting buried the second Swift is back. And is anyone around the league paying attention to this exciting, safety to RB convert and getting ready to snatch him away? Not a chance.

--It took Josh Reynolds (3-70-1/5) all of a week to establish himself as the #1 WR in Detroit. But you know, practice and experience, and learning the playbook and stuff...that's what's holding back OBJ! 

Reynolds is just a very good receiver and should pair nicely with Goff over the next couple seasons. He probably needs to be the #2 guy for a real stud next year. Don't know if he can handle some of the better CB's. Chicago just happens to not have any real corners, thus Reynolds's nice day. It's a prayer in redraft but maybe you can get away with him as a flex some weeks? The volume is so low that I'm not really comfortable with it, but having the true #1 for any team is worth a little something.

IDP Notes

--Dean Marlowe (10 tackles) popped up with a nice fantasy game here. He got the start at safety after starting safety Will Harris had to move to nickel to replace the injured AJ Parker. Parker just got put on IR so this could be a good opportunity for Marlowe the next 3 weeks, but we'll have to see if Harris stays at nickel with rookie Ifeatu Melifonwu returning from his stint on IR. With another healthy cornerback, Harris might be free to return to his more natural safety spot which would push Marlowe back to the bench. We'll have to watch the reports this week about who is practicing where to get an idea of what to expect.

If Marlowe does get another crack at the starting safety job, I'd expect solid numbers from him. He's got good size, decent speed, and hits like a load of bricks. The Lions get run on an awful lot too which provides lots of opportunities for the safeties to rack tackles.

Snap Counts of Interest

31 = Jamaal Williams

5 = Jermar Jefferson

4 = Godwin Igwebuike

61 = Darnell Mooney

53 = Damiere Byrd

32 = Marquise Goodwin

19 = Jakeem Grant

59 = David Montgomery

10 = Khalil Herbert

R.C. Fischer

FFM

30 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Patriots 36, Titans 13

Yes, the Patriots were the better team here.

Yes, the Patriots are potentially the best team in the AFC.

Yes, Bill Belichick gets all my votes for Coach of the Year (today).

But rewatching this back – a lot of little things went the Patriots way, and against the Titans. Little things like dropped picks for the Titans…I mean gifts right at them and they’d drop them. The Titans fumbled five times, and lost 3 of them…the stumbling, bumbling ball seemingly placed perfect to the Patriots for recovery. Missed kicks off the goal post for Tennessee on top of everything else. The Patriots were better, but this game was sloppy/tight with the score just 19-13 NE mid-3rd-quarter, and then D’Onta Foreman reeled off a 30-yard run pushing TEN into NE territory and rolling -- but then he had the ball chopped out of his hands at the end of the run…and the ball spit out with speed rolling towards the sidelines and then just died to not go out of bounds, Patriots recover and halt what might have been the go-ahead drive.

The Patriots and Titans play the same brand of football (run game + defense), only Tennessee lost Derrick Henry, so the teeth are missing for the run game (despite 270 yards of rushing for TEN here). The Pats have a better set of runners in their backfield duo, a better O-Line, which leads to the better QB play, and the Pats have the better defense and kicker – and, thus, the eventual New England beatdown. The Patriots are the better version of Tennessee across the board/in every facet now.

Tennessee has lost two in a row to fall to (8-4) but Indy (6-6) losing late against Tampa keeps them with a cushion in the AFC South. The Titans get a bye then the Jags and Steelers…two very winnable games, but this Tennessee team is not that good without Henry, so the next two games are not gimmes. We’re projecting Tennessee to finish (10-7) and sneaks away with a division title, just in time for Henry to return for the playoffs.

The Patriots have a MASSIVE showdown game with the Bills on MNF Week 13…the winner is not only the odds-on favorite for the AFC East, but also for the #1 seed in the AFC. I laughed at the notion of NE beating Buffalo a week ago, but now that the Bills have lost Tre’Davious White…I’m not laughing anymore. It’s going to be a real battle of two very good, flawed teams.

If the Pats lose at Buffalo on MNF…no one will blink. If the Patriots go and beat Buffalo in that marquee matchup, it could ruin the Bills run for the foreseeable future. It could knock them permanently off their top dog AFC East perch for the rest of Josh Allen’s career, as long as Bill is coaching the Patriots. Probably the most excited I’ve been to just watch a game this entire season.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’ve been very confident that D’Onta Foreman (19-109-0, 1-3-0/1) was the hand’s down lead RB here, despite Dontrell Hilliard starting the very first snap (and then Foreman in the next few snaps), but upon further watching/studying this game…I’m not so braggadocious.

There was a lot of in-out-in-out with Foreman-Hilliard. And when Hilliard had a good run or two, he stayed in. Foreman always felt like he needed to prove something to stay in…and he did in spots. It’s kinda weird to try and explain. Foreman got the first goal line touches, but then Hilliard would see snaps around there too. Foreman felt like the better/real RB, but Hilliard kept popping in and out.

I want to see the Titans lineup and go punch the opponents in the face with Foreman acting like Derrick Henry 2.0. And there are times it looks like that is happening, but there is way more rotating than I’d expect…leaving hot hand on the table so one or the other back might get left out for a game if the other one gets hot. Mike Vrabel does not seem a slave to either back. Foreman does dirty work, while Hilliard is in most every passing down.

Foreman runs and plays the way Vrabel would want, but Hilliard isn’t running poorly either. Foreman is likely to lead the group in carries, especially if they can get a lead and try and sit on it. Hilliard will get his touches and see more targets, especially if they’re down and trying to scramble back in it.

When Jeremy McNichols returns, I think he barely plays…Hilliard has pushed past him, unless Hilliard makes some mistake and gets punished. In this game, both RBs had key fumbles…and neither was punished for it, like you’d expect to see.

We’ll see what Tennessee does out of their bye after looking at the tape. The offense is better with Foreman controlling the ground with tough yards, and maybe Vrabel will go with it even more…but we’ll see Week 14. Foreman is fine, but I want more…I might be about to get it Week 14+, but Hilliard is lurking too much for me to be full scale confident of heavy Foreman all the time.

 -- The Patriots are using a three-headed monster RB, which is great for their winning ways…but bad for FF projecting.

Damien Harris (11-40-1, 1-12-0/1) is no longer the obvious lead dog, but he is the lead dog in a near 50-50 RBBC split between he and Rhamondre Stevenson (9-46-0, 0-0-0/1). If one or the other gets hot, then they could have a big week…then have the reverse the next week. They’ve split each other into RB2s with RB3 leans more than RB1 events.

Brandon Bolden (4-54-0/4) is taking on the James White role to suck PPR away from Harris-Stevenson…to make matters more FF-confusing/FF-worse.

 -- Mac Jones (23-32 for 310 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) has become what Ryan Tannehill was in 2019-2020 and early 2021…hiding behind a top run game and being super-efficient and effective with a short/controlled passing game.  

While Ryan Tannehill (11-21 for 93 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) has become worse than a rookie without Henry. Tanny has 4 TD passes and 6 picks in his non-Henry games. 10 TDs/7 INTs with Henry in 2021.

Mac Jones is completing 70.3% of his passes this season, a stunning number, and has an efficient 16 TDs/8 INTs total passing this season. Jones nearly has more TD passes than Lawrence-Wilson-Fields-Lance combined. That rookie group has combined for 17 TD passes and 28 picks by comparison through Week 12.

 -- Jones is being super-efficient and effective and Kendrick Bourne (5-61-2/6) is becoming his favorite WR. Jakobi Meyers (5-98-0/8) is right there too.

Bourne has 3 TDs in his last 3 games. He’s caught 24 passes his last 6 games (4.0 per), while Jakobi has caught 23 passes in that same span.

 -- For whatever it is worth, it looks like the Patriots might be making another run at getting Jonnu Smith (3-49-0/4, 1-9-0) going in some way. This was his best PPR output since Week 4.

At the same time, Hunter Henry (2-16-0/5) is hitting a dry spell with the constant TDs. No TDs his last two games after he had 6 TDs in the 6 games prior.

 -- The Titans-DST wasn’t terrible here. Their team’s offensive turnovers didn’t help. Having 2/3rds of their LB group out again isn’t helping. The Patriots are also becoming a great/efficient offense…so this wasn’t a good matchup either.

The good matchups lie ahead. After their Week 13 bye, they face: Lawrence-Ben-Jimmy G.-Tua-Mills For the finish. All favorable matchups except the SF one being neutral.

The Titans should be getting their key defenders back after the bye, plus some offensive help. More at full strength and with a favorable schedule…this DST might be good for a ride.

 -- For whatever it is worth, I’d say Tannehill’s favorite WR in this game…Cody Hollister (2-24-0/4), out of nowhere. It wont amount to much but if AJB returns, and Julio doesn’t…he might have some action as the uncovered/barely covered #2 WR no defense cares about.

Hollister is like a skinner Ed McCaffrey, from back in the day, if that rings any bells.  

Snap Counts of Interest:

22 = D Harris

20 = Stevenson

19 = Bolden

32 = Hilliard

31 = Foreman

52 = Westbrook-Ikhine

48 = C Hollister

15 = Rogers

12 = Dez Fitz

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

29 November 2021

A look back at the Chargers 2021 season via RC's weekly game recaps/analysis with 2022 notes/comments added to this review...

R.C. Fischer

FFM

29 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Bills 31, Saints 6

My best bet of Week 12 was Buffalo to bounce back from the somewhat fluky Indy loss Week 11 to destroy the Saints. I believed this because the Bills were ringing up as one of the 1-2-3 best teams in the NFL in our studies/data, but more importantly we saw the Saints totally and utterly dying as a team – a collapsing defense, Siemian as a fraud, and no Alvin Kamara (or Ingram) which means they lost their entire offense…that team going up against a very good Bills team in a dome/perfect weather environment = money on the Bills. And it was. I love it when a plan comes together.

No sense in analyzing this game in any minute detail, as far as the teams and the game flow went…Buffalo took control early, the Saints fought as much as they could, but the dam broke after halftime and the Saints were powerless to do anything about it. Justice was served.

The biggest news from the game is negative for the Bills, a nice blowout win on Thanksgiving gets tainted by the news that Tre’Davious White tore his ACL and is done for 2021 season. That is a MASSIVE blow. I think the Bills would take a Deal or No Deal option to magically make this game a loss but in exchange for keeping White healthy the rest of 2021. To me, most of this season, I was a proponent of the Bills as the best team in the AFC and heading to the Super Bowl. But now I am not. Losing White is devastating. The Bills have a wobbly O-Line, a limited run game, but they do have an ace QB and top defense…well, now that defense is chopped down to size. Now just ‘good with flaws’ on defense. Because they have Josh Allen, they have a chance…the same way KC always has a chance with Mahomes, Green Bay with Rodgers, etc. – but I thought Buffalo was a step better than every AFC contender…not anymore.

Buffalo projects to win the AFC East, but now tighter in the race with the Pats. In fact, I’d say it’s close to 50-50 on the Pats v. Bills to the finish line in the AFC East. The #1 seed hope for Buffalo is slipping away, but still possible because KC has flaws…Tennessee has a huge IR list. The AFC North is a fraud. The Chargers haven’t found their groove yet. The Patriots are suddenly the Bills biggest threat for the #1 seed…and thus the AFC East title. It’s going to be a Battle Royal of flawed teams to the finish in the AFC, and none are better than Arizona or fully healthy Green Bay or fully healthy Dallas.

The Saints season is about done at (5-6). They can’t win with Trevor Siemian. I expect Taysom Hill will take over when he can, but not sure when he can…and it’s probably too late to save the season. The Saints will stammer and stumbled to around 8 wins. They could get to 9 wins if a healthy Taysom gets in Week 13 with Kamara back but that’s the highest upside possible. This is a really bad, fading, too injured Saints team right now.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Just to theorize on it… Taysom Hill (DNP) sounds like he will start as soon as he is cleared of his foot injury, but it’s all very murky. Hill practiced in full all week and then never played a snap here. Either Payton wants Siemian to shine (and he keeps dimming) or Payton is trying to get Hill to 100% along with 100% Kamara-Ingram to make a run at the playoffs…and those things may all line up this week for Week 13.

If Hill takes over as the starting QB, he will be a QB1 in 4pts per pass TD.

Kamara-Ingram run their same duo backfield with no worries with Taysom.

Marquez Callaway (2-24-0/4) might be Hill’s favorite WR but more likely he’ll spread it around due to a lack of real great/obvious options.

 -- Josh Allen (23-28 for 260 yards, 4 TDs/2 INTs, 8-43-0) is experiencing some of the same issues Patrick Mahomes is facing…a weak offensive line pass protection and Allen/the QB trying to do everything by himself because the QB IS the offense for these two teams. So, Allen’s turnovers, like Mahomes, are going up and people are concerned week-to-week.

You just have to live with it for Fantasy Football…live and die by them. They are too good when things go good. The top Qbs are having more bad games this season than normal…all you can do is ride them as far as they will FF-take you

The one interest pique I have now with Allen…if the Bills defense is brought down to good (from great), then will there be more shootouts, more offense needed…more losses/deficits and junk passing…versus Bills up huge and Mitch Trubisky coming in 4th-quarter to put it to bed. This could be nice for Allen to have to elevate his output.

Or will the reduced defense reduce Bills possessions and force Allen down, or has him gambling even more (like Mahomes has been)?

That Week 13 game hosting New England is going to be a HUGE tell for forecasting the future on the Bills.

 -- There were all kinds of whispers/shouts about Matt Breida (9-26-0, 2-29-1/2) getting more work this game, and it was true. Zack Moss benched/inactive and Breida with his most touches as a Bill. My point on that all week – it’s something to observe/consider, but when has a Buffalo Bill RB mattered for FF in the strong Josh Allen era? They haven’t.

So, Devin Singletary (15-44-0, 1-4-0/1) started…got more work…was FF boring, as usual…Breida was a backup rotating in and was boring (but better than nothing), and Breida got a late screen pass TD. There was no emergence of any big Breida, or sweet uptick Singletary move…which is normal for the Bills RBs for FF.

It will likely be the same Week 13 on…an RB rotation that you don’t FF-care about.

 -- Speaking of RBs you won’t care about in Week 13… Tony Jones (16-27-0) had his big debut as a full starter, and he got stonewalled. Credit the Buffalo defense…and thanks to Sean Payton for not involving him in the passing game at all.

Unless Kamara-Ingram go down again…we’ll not be talking about Jones again in 2021.

If you played him…you had to in most cases. 16 carries is a good day for an RB…he just did nothing with it, and then got blocked from targets apparently.

 -- We likely also won’t be discussing Deonte Harris (1-9-0/5) the rest of this season either. He’s the best technical WR they have…he gets open on any coverage with his amazing feet/cutting ability…but when he springs open, he doesn’t have any QBs who can hit him with accuracy, so far, so he’s going to waste.

And now he’s been suspended three games for an offseason DUI, so thus he’s useless for FF 2021 the rest of the way.

 -- Dawson Knox (3-32-2/3) has leapt past Cole Beasley (5-46-0/5) and Emmanuel Sanders (3-28-0/3) as Josh Allen’s second favorite target. This has gone from a cute ‘he’s available/open in the end zone’ to legit, consistent FF work. Ross Jacobs calling Knox the potential Kelce option for Josh Allen in the preseason had a lot of merit…but I brushed it off because I didn’t think Knox had good enough hands and that they were pursuing Zach Ertz anyway. But now Knox is pushing Kelce for top FF scorer at TE (PPG) all the sudden this season.

The good TE with the elite QB is always a thing not to take lightly…especially if they worm their way into a #2 position in the QB’s heart.

 -- What do we do with the Buffalo-DST now that Tre’Davious White, their heart and soul on defense, is gone for the season?

Well, first off…the schedule ahead is more rough than forgiving…

Week 13 = NE

Week 14 = at TB

Week 15 = CAR

Week 16 = at NE

Week 17 = ATL

If NE is now an unfavorable matchup, or even just ‘neutral’…and you definitely don’t want that Tampa Bay matchup…then are you willing to hold the Bills-DST for the Weeks 15 and 17 opportunities? The NE-TB schedule next two weeks could be ‘meh’/weak and then we’ll lose faith in the Bills defense by the time we get to Week 15.

If you can hold on to them to use them for Week 15, then great…but then if Week 16 is expected to be not great then they are no good in three of their next 4 games – how can you hold onto that?

I’d like to take a look at them vs. New England this week…probably on my bench while I stream something else, if available. If they take it to NE…then if you can get past Week 14 with them on the bench, then Weeks 15-17 will be optimistic/favorable. If they get whacked by NE Week 13…then we got some problems ahead. Let’s see how Dane Jackson fits in (but he’s not close to White), and then decide next week. if you need to bail because you can’t hold onto two DSTs, I get it…then move on.

Snap Counts of Interest:

45 = Singletary

21 = Breida

45 = Tre’Quan

34 = Callaway

27 = Lil’Jordan

23 = Deonte

29 = Ty Montgomery

21 = Tony Jones

24 = Juwan Johnson

21 = Vannett

Ross Jacobs

FFM

27 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Buccaneers 30, Giants 10

Not much to say about this one. The Buccaneers did whatever they wanted to on offense, and while the Giants tried to fight they were just no match. Tampa marched right down the field and scored almost at will. The game was 17-10 at the half but only because a Brady pass ricocheted off Mike Evans's hands straight to a defender. That set up the Giants for an easy TD, their only offensive one of the night.

I'm not sure if this was a return of the Tampa defense, which we've seen zero evidence of so far (they've been quiet bad actually) nor can I think of a reason why they might be making a turn...or the Giants are just absolute garbage on offense because Daniel Jones is a backup QB at best playing behind a terrible offensive line.

The skill position players for New York are wonderful, but they can't get the ball without a QB that is decent and has time to throw. And for all you people out there that think taking Ja'Marr Chase over Penei Sewell was the correct move because Chase caught a few lucky long TD's...the day will come where you won't think that any longer. Teams should be drafting QBs and offensive linemen every year. That's the foundation of a strong offense. The WR's and RB's and TE's aren't meaningless, but you can get by without superstars at those positions if you have a good line and good QB.

Tampa jumps to 7-3 and nothing has changed with them. They are still in the second tier of NFC teams, jockeying for the #2 seed behind the Cardinals. They'll finish somewhere around 12 wins and get a high seed. Where they land exactly I don't know. Doesn't matter too much. This team is more than good enough to go on a Super Bowl run obviously.

The Giants fall to 3-7 and their NFC East dreams are dead. This offense stinks and changing coordinators isn't going to do enough to fix it most likely. I do think we could see a sudden spike upwards this week from having a fresh gameplan, but it also comes against an Eagles defense that has been getting a bit better each week. If the Giants could pull off a miracle and get this team playing to their talent level, they could for sure still make a run at the East with a relatively soft remaining schedule. Don't count on that happening though.

Fantasy Notes

--Well it appears Kadarius Toney (7-40-0/12) is back in good graces as the star receiver in New York. Unfortunately, there's still two problems with jumping on board the Toney train. 1. Daniel Jones sucks and 2. Toney is hurt again. He reportedly has a quad injury which could be a one week thing or it could be several weeks. We'll have to see. In redraft you can probably drop him for the moment if you need the bench spot. He's been on and off hurt and hasn't done much in weeks. Once he's healthy we can reassess his usefulness.

In dynasty you should be buying him hand over fist. Never overpay but this man has rare movement skills. He didn't get many yards in this game because there was nowhere to run, but just watch the way he moves. He jump cuts and everyone else looks like they are standing still. If he can keep his head on straight (a big if) he's going to be one of the best receivers in the league for the next 10 years.

--Kenny Golladay got paid and now he's done working. He's barely even trying anymore. It might actually have more to do with how awful Jones must be to play with, but regardless the connection isn't great right now and hasn't been most of the year. I don't think you can play him with any confidence at the moment.

*RC NOTE: Little confidence this week, BUT with Toney out and a new O-C...I have some kinda hope that Golladay can get overfed targets this week. 

--Saquon Barkley (6-25-0, 6-31-0/6) is moving as well as ever, but he's suffering from the same problems. No offensive line and his QB sucks and so the defense just stacks the run. In addition he's now dealing with an ankle injury after finally getting healthy last week. He's gotten in limited practices this week, so we'll have to see if he can suit up this weekend.

--Only two things have changed with the Bucs offense.

 1. Rob Gronkowski (6-71-0/8) returned from his injuries and picked right back up where he left off. He's a top 5 TE as long as he's healthy. 

And 2. Ronald Jones (8-33-1) is finally out of the doghouse and splitting carries with Fournette again. This is why I said you couldn't count on Fournette as an RB1 the rest of the season weeks ago when some analysts were peddling that nonsense. Fournette is still a nice RB2 due to his receiving numbers, but this is close to a 50-50 split again.

*RC NOTE: I think it’s more 70/30, 80/20 or more Fournette/Jones. This game was under control and they let RoJo work some. If Tampa plays in games where it’s more evenly matched, it will be more all Fournette. If games get out of hand, we’ll see RoJo giving more relief to Fournette for the playoff run ahead. 

Snap Counts of Interest

46 = Rob Gronkowski

35 = Cameron Brate

46 = Leonard Fournette

15 = Ronald Jones

44 = Kenny Golladay

35 = Kadarius Toney

34 = Darius Slayton

R.C. Fischer

FFM

27 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Cardinals 23, Seahawks 13

*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.

I remembered this game being more of an Arizona beatdown of Seattle, from the live watch/memory. It really wasn’t, per se. It was a lot closer in ‘style points’, as I watched it back…’style’ a loose term…it wasn’t a football clinic on either side.

It came down to: The Arizona defense is the best in the league, and they constantly saved the day and held Seattle’s offense down…while Colt McCoy played efficiently, and Arizona ‘escaped’ with a win. Arizona was the better team here, but there were several moments where Seattle had their chances to seize the momentum – but that Arizona defense…so good.

Seattle put up a fight, but they just don’t have the O-Line to have any room for error…especially against top teams. Since Wilson returned, they’ve played two of the best teams/defenses in the NFL – Arizona and Green Bay. They lose here and fall to (3-7) and out of the playoffs for all intents and purposes.

If I were Pete Carroll, I’d try and rally my team that if they just go out and win Week 12 at WSH, then they aren’t dead yet. If they beat Wahsington (win #4), they also have HOU-CHI-DET to come…which (hopefully) gets them to 7 wins.

That leaves three other games remaining that I haven’t mentioned…hosting SF (winnable) and at LAR, and at Arizona. If they were to beat Washington Week 12 and then smack SF with the Seattle home crowd help, then they get to (5-7) and then play Houston…so, they COULD be (6-7), winners of three straight, going at LAR with the season on the line Week 15, because after that game it’s very winnable games with CHI-DET. Week 18 at Arizona could be meaningless for Arizona. Seattle has a chance.

All that to say, the Seahawks should have some energy on Monday Night Football at Washington. Win that, and Seattle’s not dead yet – which is why their DST might have hope ahead if they win their next two games (HOU-CHI-DET) on the schedule to come. Never count out Russell Wilson.

Arizona arm-wrestles their way to (9-2) with this win, winning 2-of-3 McCoy starts. They are on a Week 12 bye and will then get back Kyler-Hopkins and they will be the best team in the NFL ready to take on the world Week 13 on. They should finish with 13-14 wins…15 wins not out of the question. Kyler is one of the best QBs in the NFL now. Their defense is arguably the best in the game. The NFC #1 seed is theirs if Kyler stays healthy.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- First offensive play of the game, Seattle with possession, Rashaad Penny (2-19-0) starting…and I’m flipping out with excitement at this sudden development. He gets a handoff and blows right past everyone for an 18-yard run and I’m like (during the live watch Sunday): Finally, it’s Penny time!

Nope.

He doesn’t see his next touch until the 3rd-quarter. I’ve heard he got nicked up on the 1st play…which is par for the Penny course, but he looked fine upon his return…so I don’t know that he was hurt that bad. I have to assume he got nicked up. No way they would sit him after giving him a surprise start and seeing that first carry was their best carry by a Seattle back since like Marshawn Lynch’s playoff TD run vs. Saints years ago. https://youtu.be/r18lHPDMNFE

Perhaps that was a little generous to praise Penny’s random Week 11 tote in that Marshawn light…but it’s been a while since you could get excited about a Seattle RB. Actually, it’s been a while since you could get excited about Penny. Every time you do, the rug is pulled.

But…if I see him back practicing in full, I’m in. In fact, you’d be smart to sit on him this week even if he’s questionable or inactive. I think the moment he’s ready to go, he’s going to be the lead back for the rest of the season (if he can stay healthy) – he is the only back who could bring life to this offense. And IF he ever does get a run as the lead – he might be the RB1 for FF at just the right time for you.

Now, he’s more likely going to slip on a banana peel and go on IR the rest of the season – but IF he can take advantage of his 19th chance…running into his free agency 2022…maybe just maybe…

 -- Rondale Moore (11-51-0/11) got a ton of short targets, which is what I want to see…but he really didn’t do much with them. He looked good, nimble, but Seattle closed on him with every short shot, and he had little room to escape. He danced around for an extra yard or two, nicely, on various short tosses…but no ‘big’ plays.

I don’t think the Cardinals are now going to target Moore 11 times a game going forward. This was a Colt McCoy thing. Moore was available. McCoy was working safe. Seattle was worried about the outside WRs and James Conner. Moore had a ton of targets, but it wasn’t anything special.

Zach Ertz (8-88-2/9) looked more like a plan, more like a dominant weapon than Moore (albeit in a different way). This was really good work by Ertz…but, again, I think this was a McCoy thing, and a ‘it was there’ thing. And it was a…Seattle not great vs. the TE thing.

Watching McCoy use Ertz and RoMo effectively, made me think…McCoy was using Christian Kirk (2-25-0/4) more his first two Kyler-fill-in starts…and A.J. Green (4-78-0/7) made some plays here – the Cardinals are loaded with options and the QBs are using them as the matchups/opportunities dictate. The Cardinals passing game is not like GB or MIN…everything to Davante or Jefferson. They spread it around and hit you from all different angles.

It’s why DeAndre Hopkins isn’t a WR1 anymore. He’s not lost any skill…it’s just Arizona comes at you differently game-to-game, drive-to-drive…because they can. Having Ertz only makes it more maddening for the opposing defenses. Rondale is just another punch they can throw as needed.

None of them are a WR1 in 2021.

And it’s why Kyler may be the most lethal passer in the NFL these days. Not only is Kyler great, but he also has five legit options to use at any given moment.

 -- Russell Wilson (14-26 for 207 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) has no TD passes in two games since his return, but he has faced two hot NFL pass defenses upon his return – ARI and GB. Wilson had his chances here. He hit D.K. Metcalf for a score, but DKM just stepped out of bounds, reversing the TD call. Wilson looked totally fine and normal Russell to me. He has a bad O-Line, so he’s having to work for the most basic of things…kinda like Mahomes and J. Allen and Dak (without Tyron) have to because of their O-Lines, against good defenses. Russ looks fine otherwise; I think this was weak O-Line meets top NFL defenses at the wrong time.

Wilson is due a 300+ yards, 3-4 TD event…and it might be this Week 12.

Snap Counts of Interest:

18 = DeeJay Dallas

18 = Collins

08 = Penny

05 = Homer

42 = Everett

25 = Dissly

04 = Parkinson

63 = Wesley

61 = Kirk

57 = AJG

32 = Rondale

Ross Jacobs

FFM

26 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Chargers 41, Steelers 37 

Long story short: the Chargers scored nearly at will on the Steelers who also moved the ball quite well considering their general offensive malaise this year, but they got quite a few breaks later in the game that allowed them to hang with LA.

LA quickly moved down the field on their first several drives scoring each time. They stuffed a Pittsburgh drive at the goalline on their second possession which led to a quick 14-3 lead. The Steelers would cut that lead to 14-10 on their next drive, and then LAC extended it again right after to make it 17-10 at the half. The only time either team had remotely stopped the other at this point was the goal line stand.

The Chargers got the ball after halftime and drove again for an easy TD. 24-10 and the Chargers looked to be pulling away. They stopped Pittsburgh and got the ball back, but a couple penalties stopped their drive and they had to settle for a FG.

Pitt kicked their own field goal a bit later, and the score was 27-13 LAC with about 14 minutes left. That is when things got wild.

The Steelers blocked a Charger punt which set them up with a short field. They capitalized with a TD after pass interference was called on the Chargers during an interception on 4th down in the endzone, and the game was back in question, 27-20.

The Chargers were having none of that though and promptly scored again, 34-20. The Steelers answered easily, cutting it to a one score game yet again, 34-27. On the next drive for LA, a Herbert pass was tipped and went straight to the Steelers who intercepted it with another short field. They scored and it was a tie game.

Next possession the Chargers are feeling the heat. They haven't been able to put away the pesky Steelers yet, and now the game is actually on the line. So on 4th and 1 from their own territory Brandon Staley gives the ball to Ekeler...who is stuffed. Pitt ball with a short field. They need to hold the Steelers to a FG to have a good chance at the win and do. 37-34 Steelers.

Final drive with about a minute left and the Chargers need a TD to win or field goal to tie. Somehow Mike Williams is left wide open in a busted coverage and Herbert hits him for a miracle long TD to win the game 41-37.

The emotions from this game were absolutely wild. I was texting RC during it as usual, complaining about various fantasy related things mostly involving Williams being ignored for 3 quarters (we'll talk about that) and how I should have started Jalen Hurts over Herbert (no I shouldn't have). He was complaining back about Mike as well...etc etc. And then the big play hit and we both pulled out seemingly impossible wins. Moral of the story? Shut up and watch the games because you never know what might happen. (I'm just kidding, go ahead and complain, that's part of the fun and misery of fantasy football).

So the Chargers move to 6-4 and are a half game behind the Chiefs for the AFC West. Can they catch them? Perhaps. The schedule isn't exactly hard, but the game against the Chiefs could be the deciding game. They've already beaten the Chiefs once. A second win could put them over the edge and obviously wins it for them in case of a tie.

Is the team good enough to pull this off? I don't know. Maybe. It should be close. The offense was much, much better here, but they were also beating up on a Steelers squad with all of their top guys out. But the defenses they have left to face aren't exactly killers.

The LAC defense is the problem right now. Brandon Staley is supposed to be a defensive genius, but right now they are getting their asses handed to them. Even the Steelers' sorry offense was moving the ball on them well. It's not a good sign to say the least. If they go 5-2 the rest of the year I would not be shocked, but I also wouldn't be shocked with 3-4. They probably need at least 11 wins to pull it out over the Chiefs. Spank the Broncos this week and we might have a race on our hands. Lose and it gets a lot harder.

Pittsburgh falls to 5-4-1 and things are not looking good. After winning 4 in a row they tied the Lions and should have gotten plastered here but luckily hung around until the end. The schedule is not their friend and I honestly don't see how they possibly get to 10 wins. I'm thinking they land somewhere around 8 wins but less than that wouldn't shock me.

Fantasy Notes

--So what happened with Mike Williams (5-97-1/6) and can we trust him moving forward? On the first drive he was targeted 5 times and RC and I were thinking he was back. He was moving around well, catching it well, things seemed to be fine.

And then he got ignored for the next 50 minutes as Keenan Allen (9-112-0/13) was targeted over and over. On the very last drive Herbert hit Mike for a 53 yard miracle score due to busted coverage. Without that play Mike goes 4-44-0/5 and it's the same story all over. I don't think things are ok. I don't know what the problem is. I saw him being double covered an awful lot, but surely that can't be the whole reason. Herbert was connecting with him just fine on the first drive, so what changed? Why did he ignore him after that?

Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer. All I know is this has been a continual pattern for several weeks now. If we get more of that first drive then things will work out, but I'm not counting on it. Trends like this don't typically reverse course after one magical quarter. You have to hold and hope for the best for now. Mike could be a league winner in the final stretch, but it might be painful getting there. Allen is still the de facto #1 until we see a change in the targeting.

--What a huge night for Austin Ekeler (11-50-2, 6-65-2/7). He helped me pull out my second miracle win of the week, so thanks for that Austin! As long as he's healthy Ekeler has been a top 3 back all year and will remain so.

--Don't look now but Donald Parham (4-38-0/5) is starting to split more time with Jared Cook (3-28-0/5). This coaching staff has to realize what a waste Cook is. Parham isn't a star in waiting, but he's more than capable and certainly better than Cook at this point.

--RC told me that rookie TE Trey McKitty caught his eye with his lone catch here. I had noticed it too but kept waiting for another one to make a judgment on him...it never came. So I went back to watch this one lone, singular catch again, and...it was pretty good. McKitty showed some decent athleticism and movement skills evading a defender. Impossible to say if he's a star or something based on one play, but it was enough to know we can't outright dismiss him in the future. He's a guy to keep on the radar as he grows with Herbert the next few years.

--Not much to note on the Steelers. It's the same old story. Diontae is the ppr god. Claypool is a random WR3 hoping for a big play (he should have had a TD here but Ben can't throw the ball 30 yards anymore so he had to come back to the ball and was tackled short). Najee is still an overrated hack that's going to get insane touch counts to prop him up for fantasy.

The only thing a bit strange at first glance is Pat Freiermuth (4-11-1/7) with such a bad line. It wasn't for lack of trying to get him the ball. He's still going to get a ton of touches and finish as a TE1 the rest of the way. What held him down here was mostly Derwin James being a coverage hawk. Don't worry about Freiermuth.

IDP Notes

--Kyzir White's last 5 games he's averaging 9.4 tackles per game after his snap counts went up.

*RC NOTE = Bonus Commentary on this game: https://youtu.be/pMviPLWUiSg

Snap Counts of Interest

62 = Keenan Allen

60 = Mike Williams

41 = Jalen Guyton

23 = Joshua Palmer

38 = Jared Cook

32 = Donald Parham

R.C. Fischer

FFM

26 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Washington 27, Panthers 21

*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.

This was a pretty boring affair, from a Fantasy study standpoint. As expected, Carolina comes at you with Christian McCaffrey as Cam struggles to play QB from the pocket…while the Football team comes at you with Antonio Gibson (somewhat) and heaves prayers to Terry McLaurin. I could not tell the difference between these two teams – both are very mediocre, play hard, and offer nothing fresh 11 weeks into the season.

This game was tied 21-21 with 7+ minutes left. Taylor Heinicke hit an improbable 4th & 3 pass for a 1st-down conversion, where he shoulda been sacked, but he tossed a desperation fling as he was going down and they got the conversion…Carolina would have likely gone on to win the game had the improbable not just happened. Cam had a shot after that to tie, and then another to lead a drive to win the game – he failed on both accounts…Washington wins.

The Football Team is suddenly (4-6) and has playoff life. I don’t think they can hit 9 wins, so it’s a false life…but they have a small chance, a motivation to keep playing hard this week.

Carolina loses a big opportunity to get to above .500 and solidly in the playoff picture. Instead, they fall to (5-6) and let Washington have a tiebreaker on them if it comes down to it later. Carolina has lost to wild card teams MIN, PHI, and now WSH. It’s not looking good for the Panthers for the playoffs. We project them with 8 wins max, likely 7-8 wins.

I just have to say – a huge game at Carolina, and the Panthers lay an egg. Cam generates spotty offense. The defense was pushed around by Taylor Heinicke and friends…after the Panthers went out and bought an all-star CB group and has been drafting D-Linemen over everything, and in the biggest game of Matt Rhule’s NFL career…they aren’t any better than the Football Team? I love Matt Rhule, but questions need to be asked…especially if they flop to the finish.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Cam Newton (21-27 for 189 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs, 10-46-1) put up nice FF numbers in his 2021 starting debut. Same old Cam…would look good one drive then struggles the next, and when the money was on the line…he fell short. 2-of-9 on 3rd-downs, 1-of-3 on 4th-downs were the Panthers.

Part of the issue Cam, and part of it is…suddenly, the Football Team found its defense – just 10 weeks into the season. Better late than never. They just needed to get Young-Sweat out of the lineup so they could really flourish. Mike Lombardi has my favorite football line of all-time because it is so true, something he said back when he was a personnel guy with the Raiders when he couldn’t understand why the coaches were playing certain players and freezing out others…he said to his close confidants, “We’re an injury away from being a really good team.”

Washington was the worst defense in the NFL…and then they lost both their high-price, high 1st-round draft pick edge rushers, and NOW they’re a good defense – 17-19-21 points allowed their last three games. They face struggling Seattle this week…their run may keep up.

 -- The Carolina defense is going the other direction. The Panthers have good-looking, young defensive personnel and they’ve stolen two great CBs (C.J. Henderson and Stephon Gilmore) in trades, and yet they get worse as the season wears on. The whoop on awful offenses. They struggle/are mediocre against mediocre offenses, and they get bombed by good+ offenses (DAL and MIN throttled them).

Taylor Heinicke completed 73% of his passes and had 3 TD passes and no picks here. How is this possible? You can’t have great confidence in the Panthers-DST this week vs. Tua…what a weird statement to write. However, every defense has a letdown in 2021, at least one, so Carolina may storm the castle this week vs. Miami.

 -- Antonio Gibson (19-95-0) had another big touch count day, now back-to-back weeks with bigger workloads – but there’s more to this story.

Gibson is working as the main workhorse now, with Jaret Patterson (7-23-0) popping in at odd times in relief to take a series even. But early in this game, Gibson fumbled – his 5th fumble of 2021 (10 games, 154 carries), his 3rd lost fumble of the season. He was benched for the rest of the 1st-half.

An NFL coach’s handpicked, full confidence RB…those guys usually are not benched for a fumble. Maybe for a series, but not for 1.5 quarters. I think Rivera likes Gibson and wants him to succeed, and he knows he’s his best back…but his patience is also wearing a bit thin. Jaret Patterson keeps creeping in more and more. When Washington led late, and needed to run the clock…Patterson was in. Gibson went in late and with Carolina with no timeouts left, 2:00 remaining (right after the 2-minute warning), on a 3rd-down run…Gibson went out of bounds to stop the clock. So, when Washington took the field goal from there, to go up 6 points, Carolina still had 1:50 left to go win the game. Had Gibson gone out of bounds, Carolina might have had a minute left…instead, they had almost two minutes (with no timeouts)…a huge difference. But then Cam didn’t capitalize anyway.

Gibson continues to unnerve Ron Rivera…and I say all this to note, Gibson is another fumble away from another benching for quarters or longer(?)…the miscues are letting Patterson continue to gain ground in the backfield. It’s a very fluid situation with Gibson right now.

 -- DeAndre Carter (2-22-1/3) scored a TD for the third straight game. Those opportunities could be going to Curtis Samuel and then some, if he can ever get healthy. Samuel might be returning this week. We’ll see if he can log a FULL practice at all Friday or Saturday.

 -- Ricky Seals-Jones (DNP) remains out, and Logan Thomas (IR) is eligible for return in the next 3 weeks, and maybe it’s this week…but I don’t think he will be back for Week 12. If that’s correct, John Bates (3-23-0/3) is something-not-nothing for Week 12 v. SEA.

Bates has played heavier in RSJ’s absence, and he’s averaged 3.0 rec., 24.0 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game in his two games of heavier play. Week 11…he played 99% of the snaps. He’s a good blocker so he’ll be on the field a lot, and maybe he snags a lucky TD ahead.

…and Seattle just got lit up by Zach Ertz last week.

 -- Jeremy Chinn (13 tackles, 1 TFL) seasonal splits…

4.2 total tackles, 0.00 TFLs, 0.20 PDs per game = Chinn Weeks 1-5.

8.3 total tackles, 0.83 TFLs, 0.33 PDs per game = Chinn Weeks 6-11

Snap Counts of Interest:

33 = Gibson

31 = McKissic

13 = Patterson

32 = I Thomas

24 = Tremble

R.C. Fischer

FFM

26 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Vikings 34, Packers 31

*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.

The Vikings really took control of this game right away…they were on the verge of putting it away quickly, but up 16-3, with the ball, 3rd & 1, with 5+ min left until the half…if they get a 1st-down they could run clock down towards the end of the half (maybe) and keep heading towards another score – so, what play do they call to deliver the potentially huge punch/keep control of the ball way from Aaron Rodgers? A pitch sweep to the single back, who was named C.J. Ham…the fullback. Not Dalvin Cook. You would not be shocked to know that Ham was wiped out for a loss.

After the Ham disaster, the Vikings punted…plenty of time for Rodgers to score, and you know he did…cutting it to a one score game at the half. The Vikings then scored first coming out of the half to take a 23-10 lead…which they then totally coughed up…Vikings down 24-23 with 7 minutes left.

At that point, I’m thinking the Vikings were gonna blow another golden opportunity – but they didn’t. They rallied to take a 31-24 lead. They then saw GB tie it 31-31 in an instant on a bomb to MVS…so NOW the Vikes are gonna blow it, but credit Minnesota for going down the field and setting up for the game winning FG at the buzzer.

The Vikings are probably too far down to catch Green Bay in the standings, but I don’t think the gap between them is very much in reality/talent/execution. If the Pack loses to LAR Week 12 (and I think they will) and if Minnesota upsets SF (and I think they will) – then we might have a potential race on our hands. Sadly, Minnesota always finds a way to not capitalize on things…

The Vikings are now (5-5). If they can dispatch San Fran Week 12, they can win their next three after that (DET-PIT-CHI) and get to (9-5) and really make some NFC North noise. We see them finishing with 9-10 wins and a wild card, but 11 wins a stretch goal possibility.

The Packers could be the best team in football…IF, IF they can get back their left tackle David Bakhtiari from injury and IF Jaire Alexander can get back, but I’m not sure they can…maybe for the playoffs, maybe. Green Bay is very likely locked into a minimum 11 wins, so Minnesota catching them is a stretch. 12+ wins possible for GB and a #1 NFC seed hopeful. If they beat the Rams Week 12, they are in great shape for a #1 seed.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- A.J. Dillon (11-53-0, 6-44-0/6) was in prime position to shine with Aaron jones (DNP) out, but of course the Vikings raced out to a quick lead and were on the verge of really putting the Packers away early on…so Green Bay abandoned the run and Dillon saw more pass game action than expected, but never got rolling as a runner.

No failure on his part. He played well, but the game flow went away from him...forced by Minnesota.

 -- Aaron Rodgers (23-33 for 385 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) had a couple clutch throws to Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4-123-1/10) and a big one for a TD late.

Is MVS a good FF play from here? He’s kinda like Mecole Hardman…you always think the ‘other guy’ WR will rack up numbers when the elite WR on the team gets all the coverage attention…but then it never really works out that way, except every 3-4-5 games…and you’re left guessing which games those will be, and good luck trying to throw that dart.

MVS has played 6 games this season. His PPR numbers in each game (rounded, starting with Week 1): 5-0-15-4-5-22. Two of 6 games ‘worth it’ (33%) with one big game (Week 11/here). Even in this game you see the issue…10 targets, but only 4 catches. He’s a lightning strike player that you have to guess where and when the lightning strikes.

Another issue is, what’s left over from Rodgers in a game after he’s done wearing out Davante Adams is not as much as it used to be/what we think. This was Rodgers best game by far this season…not typical of his 2021. If he didn’t hit a lightning strike TD late to MVS, it would have been a really good FF-game, not a spectacular one.

For the past 11 seasons, Rodgers averages around 250-280 passing yards per game, per season. He’s not with the highflyers throwing for 300+ yards all the time.

 -- Through Week 11, you would likely believe Aaron Rodgers to be an MVP candidate and the far superior NFL and Fantasy QB to Kirk Cousins (24-35 for 341 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT). They have both played 10 games this season. Here are their numbers season-to-date:

66.8% Comp. Pct., 2,571 yards, 21 TDs/4 INTs = Rodgers

68.2% Comp. Pct., 2,775 yards, 21 TDs/2 INTs = Cousins

So, who’s the superior QB in 2021?

 -- Josiah Deguara (2-37-1/2) is making some minor noise since Robert Tonyan went down/out, but he’s nowhere as good as Tonyan…and he’s a smaller TE, a bit player that can be a 1-2 catch a game option. No race to an upside coming that we see.

 -- Not much to hit on with Minnesota…they do what they do, run with Dalvin Cook and throw to Justin Jefferson and then throw to Adam Thielen. All three are stars, and they are the focus every week. No new news on this offense.

 -- Mike Zimmer has yet to ruin Greg Joseph (2/2 FG, 2/3 XP). He shouldn’t, it’s the best kicker he’s had since he cut Daniel Carlson his rookie season, like an idiot.

Joseph is currently the #2 kicker in FF PPG and is tied for #1 in 50+ yard FGs made this season.

Snap Counts of Interest:

52 = Davante

48 = MVS

45 = Cobb

21 = ESB

06 = Winfree

44 = Dillon

15 = Patrick Taylor

27 = Deguara

17 = M Lewis

16 = Dafney