- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Chargers 27, Eagles 24
Hard fought game and victory for the Chargers…on the road, west-to-east coast trip, missing two starting CBs…and they held off Philly and won at the buzzer on a field goal. Both teams played well, but when it was crunch time – Justin Herbert led a drive down to the red zone and ran the clock out for a game winning FG.
The Chargers are now (5-3), in a 1st-place tie in the AFC West…but a loss from last place. The LAC schedule eases up now, so the division is theirs for the taking if they can get healthy on defense. The Chargers should be headed to 11-12 wins and that should put them as likely division winners.
The Eagles fall to (3-6), but they too have a schedule ease ahead…but the Eagles are not as good a team to capitalize on it like the Chargers. Philly projects to 7-8 wins, but 9 wins is on the board…with 7 most likely the outcome.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I thought Jordan Howard (17-71-1) started this game, but he didn’t Boston Scott (10-40-0) did…but it was Howard who came in soon after and was rotating with Scott, and JoHo was the FAR superior back and he just kinda was the hot hand and Philly (smartly) went with it. Howard looked fantastic, as usual…so, you know, as soon as Miles Sanders returns (likely Week 11)…Howard goes back to the practice squad where no other team will notice he’s there and try and claim him.
Boston Scott will start Week 10, but who know who leads Philly in touches from there between he and Howard. I’d guess Howard, but that’s just a guess.
-- What’s wrong with Mike Williams (2-58-0/5)?
I didn’t see anything problematic with the way he was moving around. He had three TD shots in this game but none of them worked out…a fade that didn’t work from short distance, a tunnel screen at the goal line that Herbert threw 150mph through his hands, and another goal line shot where Williams either turned the wrong way or Herbert had the wrong interpretation and it was throw 180 degrees opposite of where Williams broke his route to.
It definitely wasn’t a great game for MW, but had he cashed in on TD then it would have been a decent FF output. He doesn’t look hurt. It just felt like Darius Slay was doing a good job on him WITH Keenan Allen (12-104-0/13) going off on the other CBs, so there was no need to push it to anyone else. Herbert’s first throw to Allen was 10-feet over his head…and then they connected on their next 12 passes with no incompletions.
I’m not down on Mike Williams but I’m certainly not thrilled with his recent fall down in numbers. I see no reason why he can’t pump back up but all of us will be worried until we see him breakthrough again. Half+ of his recent decline came with him really hurt. But the last two games he looks mostly healthy/good.
-- You know who impresses me? Donald Parham (3-39-1/3). He’s slimming down and moving quicker and is really catching the ball well…catching it smoothly and at all angles. He’s likely going to be in this split role with Jared Cook (4-48-0/4) and Stephen Anderson (4-39-1/4) all 2021, but Parham is becoming the best looking of the group, to me.
A couple random Parham notes…
3 TD catches in his last 5 games…the 8th most in the league. More TD catches this season than Waller-Gesicki-Hockenson-Goedert-Higbee-Engram…and Jared Cook.
17 games played in the NFL with at least one target…6 TD catches…6 TDs in his 20 career catches.
50.0% catch rate in 2020…when he was just a fade/alley-oop guy in the end zone. In 2021, as he becomes more of a real TE, he’s caught 83.3% of his targets this season to date.
Tre McKitty landed in the wrong spot for FF…
-- Chargers TE Steven Anderson (4-39-1/4) popped up with a blip game here. LAC used him wisely leaking out off of blocks, in motion in the backfield like a H-back/FB in the flat, etc. I don’t think anything is developing here, just Philly is bad against the TE with their random linebackers and LAC targeted Keenan Allen 13 times, the TE group 11 times, and Mike Williams just 5 times.
Which brings it home more that Mike Williams is not worthy of the Kupp-Davante-Tyreek-Pittman class right now…LAC/Herbert is spreading it around game plan to game plan, and not desperately leaning on Mike for everything.
The funny thing is – opposing teams don’t think so, they are throwing their best coverage at Big Mike…and then Herbert is just rocking them everywhere else, smartly.
-- Speaking of Justin Herbert (32-38 for 356 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT)…I guess his hand injury was OK? He completed 84.2% of his passes here and just had his way with the Eagles secondary. Philly’s pass defense has racked great numbers against the weak and been obliterated by the strong QBs. This game was another example.
-- I thought this was a solid game of Jalen Hurts (11-17 for 162 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 10-62-0) playing Jalen Hurts ball…he’s the better all-around Lamar Jackson but doesn’t get the credit for it for two reasons:
(1) He doesn’t have the flashy highlight moves running the ball as Lamar but is as/more effective with his strong style vs. Lamar’s flashy style.
(2) Lamar was a Heisman winner, 1st-round pick…he was supposed to be good. Hurts was drafted higher than the media proclaimed, so that’s a problem…then Hurts came in and was better than their Tua…that’s another media problem. So, all the mainstream media has done is attack Hurts and wonder aloud if they should bench him and mock 2022 NFL Draft QBs to Philly.
In 2021 season, through 9 weeks:
2,809 total yards, 15 total TDs, 10 total turnovers = Lamar Jackson (8 games)
2,475 total yards, 16 total TDs, 5 total turnovers = Jalen Hurts (9 games)
Yet, the media pushes us the narrative of Lamar as a top MVP candidate…and Hurts a top candidate to be benched.
Hurts is playing for his job/life every week. If he loses two games in a row ahead, I’m not sure he starts the next game after that. For his sake, I hope he keeps winning.
-- PHI DT Javon Hargrave (3 tackles) seasonal splits…
Weeks 1-5 = 5.4 total tackles, 1.2 sacks, 1.8 TFLs per game
Weeks 6-10 = 4.0 tackles, 0.0 sacks, 0.0 TFLs per game
He’s getting doubled…and he’s just running out of IDP juice, apparently.
-- Solid game from the LAC defense…despite missing two starting corners (M. Davis, A. Samuel) and still missing Kenneth Murray to help with their run game woes.
The LAC-DST has mediocre numbers/NFL rankings in part because they haven’t had a schedule break all season except Week 1 vs. WSH (held them to 16pts and 259 total yards).
They have some breaks ahead if they get their CBs back healthy (which they should):
Week 11 hosting PIT is great.
Week 12 at Denver should be really good.
PIT and DEN want to run the ball but have some of the worst run blocking O-Lines in the league.
Week 14 hosting NYG could be good depending on the NYG health of their weapons.
Week 16 at HOU should be sweet at just the right FF time.
Hosting DEN Week 17.
The schedule is tipping in their favor. We’ll see if they can take advantage. I still say it’s a viable defense for your Arizona pairings on matchups, but I’m not pounding my fist on the desk for it.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Quez
44 = DeVonta
29 = Reagor
25 = B Scott
23 = Jo Howard
11 = Gainwell
53 = Goedert
14 = Tyree Jackson
31 = Stv Anderson
29 = J Cook
28 = Parham
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Patriots 24, Panthers 6
In a battle of similar teams (run games and defense), the Patriots made the least number of mistakes and got an early cushion and just sat on the Panthers all game. There was no mystery to it…Sam Darnold is not good, and it showed, and helped the Pats to victory.
The Patriots are now (5-4) and crawling up the back of the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East. It’s not improbable that the Patriots win the AFC East, but I’ll say this Pats team is very stable/solid but not on Buffalo’s level…they have five wins over Zach Wilson 2x, Davis Mills (barely), Sam Darnold…and the outlier win against Justin Herbert. We’ll see how they fare against the better teams ahead. The only cupcake game they have for the rest of the season is Week 17 Jacksonville (is this a cupcake game still?). We project NE to finish with 7-8 wins, but 9 possible.
The Panthers fall to (4-5), losers of four of their last 5 games…and another loss coming to ARI Week 11. They just signed Cam Newton, but that’s really not a big upgrade from Sam Darnold. We see the Panthers flopping to 6-7 wins in the end.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, Carolina signs Cam Newton…
It seems exciting…if it were 5+ years ago. Now, Cam is a shell of himself and not wanted by any team all season…until this crisis spot hit.
Cam is a worse passer, better runner version of Sam Darnold (16-33 for 172 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs)…and Darnold played like he secretly bet on the Patriots this game.
Cam will likely run the ball 10-15 times a game, in lieu of his lost passer skills (which weren’t great to begin with)…he can be decent/QB2 in 4pts per pass TD leagues for FF…maybe.
Christian McCaffrey (14-52-0, 4-54-0/5) gets a nice lift with Cam returning…anything is better than P.J. Walker for him.
D.J. Moore (2-14-0, 3-32-0/7) has little effect/help from Cam…as Cam is worse than Darnold as a passer to WRs, but he does have a relationship/history with DJM.
-- Side note on CMC…I thought he looked totally healed/fine here, no limitations.
With CMC back, Chuba Hubbard was sparingly used and ineffective. He is the handcuff though…if you own CMC, you have to hold Hubbard to go with him the rest of the way in Fantasy.
-- The Patriots have three RBs that are CLEARLY better than Chuba Hubbard – and they are rotating and look terrific.
Damien Harris (8-54-0, 1-3-0/1) is the lead dog, but he is constantly getting nicked up…and now he’s down this week with a concussion and unknown if he’ll get cleared in time for Week 10.
Harris has been very solid/good all season, but I’d say Rhamondre Stevenson (10-62-0, 2-44-0/2) looks like the more physically gifted/talented back of the two. Harris has the experience factor, but Stevenson has everything else – he’s the lead back of the future, but Belichick is always spreading around his backfield touches (smart). With Harris down, Stevenson was in a prime spot to have a big touch count Week 10, but then Rhamondre also got a concussion and is very questionable for the upcoming game.
There were moments where I thought Brandon Bolden (8-54-0, 2-22-0/2) was the best looking back of this trio…he looks terrific for a guy turning 32 years old soon. With Harris-Stevenson in doubt this week…Bolden is the guy to have, a possible RB1 for the week if the main duo is out.
-- The Patriots-DST is beating up on the week and is wobbly/allowing points against any of the better QBs they’ve faced this year (not many faced, Dak and Herbert)…but did frustrate Brady.
The schedule is a mixed bag for them ahead – CLE, ATL, TEN are not pushovers but not elite offenses either. They might be a decent start the next three weeks, but then it’s buh-bye with BUF-BYE-IND-BUF Weeks 13-16.
-- The Carolina-DST is better, talent-wise, than the Pats-DST, in my book…but Carolina’s offense doesn’t support their defense well, so it’s shaky week-to-week. Cam coming in and running the ball a bunch will help them some.
Weeks 11-12 with WSH and at MIA aren’t bad plays, especially Week 11. Then you’re likely done with them after that…BYE-ATL-BUF-TB-NO-TB to finish the season.
Snap Counts of Interest:
29 = CMC
22 = Abdullah
10 = Hubbard
54 = Robby A
50 = DJ Moore
22 = Terr Marshall
17 = Snead
55 = J Meyers
54 = Agholor
33 = Bourne
29 = Bolden
24 = D Harris
17 = Stevenson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Cardinals 31, 49ers 17
The storyline coming out/from this game is quite amazing, when you think about it.
The 49ers go into this game in a must-win…with a win they could get to .500 and be right back in the NFC West race. They caught a big break with Arizona missing Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins – basically, their offensive soul was gone. Add to that, Arizona had A.J. Green out with COVID, and J.J. Watt had been lost for the season recently. Playing at San Francisco – this was the 49ers; this was Kyle Shanahan’s time shine. Chase Edmonds got hurt right away – so, this looked SO good for SF.
So, it’s only logical that the Cardinals would race out to a 17-0 lead enroute to a beat down…at the hands of Colt McCoy and James Conner. McCoy only completed 84.6% of his passes and James Conner ran like he was Derrick Henry. It was embarrassing for San Francisco. This 49ers defense is horrific, and their offense is OK but not great. The spirit of this team is dreadful – and that’s on Kyle Shanahan.
The 49ers fall to (3-5), so not out of the playoffs at all…but looking like a longer and longer shot. A loss to the Rams this week might put them out of their misery. A win brings them to (4-5) with an easing schedule on tap the rest of the season. Likely, they lose to the Rams and finish with 6-7 wins this season, as the tougher games they do have ahead (SEA-CIN-TEN) are all on the road.
Shanahan’s hand should be forced to push Trey Lance as starter after the Rams game, assuming they lose – the season will be fading, the local media is crushing him. Everyone is turning on the golden boy. A turn to Lance can change the trajectory of the season, or at least change the narrative. Week 11, after a loss to the Rams, going to Jacksonville for a favored win is probably the move to Lance moment.
By winning this game without their stars, against a decent opponent, on the road…how can we not say that Arizona (7-1) is the best team in football? They are an A.J. Green miscommunication away from being undefeated still. They should beat Carolina Week 10, without Kyler, and then maybe get Kyler back at Seattle Week 11. Arizona projects 14-15 +/- wins, the NFC West title, and in a dogfight with Green Bay for the #1 seed, along with Dallas (who they play at Jan. 2nd/Week 17).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Just more thoughts on the 49ers defense…
They have allowed 28 or more points in a game in four of their last 6 games…five of their 8 games this season. Carson Wentz pushed them around…then Justin Fields was not terrible against them Week 8, then Colt McCoy pounded them this game. This defense is not good.
I think back to the Indy game, Week 7, in that torrential rain – the Colts were tackling the ball and punching it out like a pack of ballhawks. The 49ers never did any such things…instead gently grabbing jerseys that slipped through their hands on their way to 30 points allowed in the soup of a game/loss. They were so soft. Then this game…James Conner was running through them like they weren’t interested in playing football.
They’re not very good…and worse than that, they have no energy/spirit. Embarrassing…while people still think they’re still formidable somehow.
-- The Arizona-DST is what is good...great even. They punched the ball out a couple times on SAWFT San Francisco, which helped them jump to a lead. This is the best defense I see with my eyes every week…them and Green Bay, and Buffalo.
The Arizona defense toyed with the 49ers. The Cardinals got up quick and then just handled/toyed with the 49ers all game.
Facing P.J. Walker this week should be a bloodbath event for them.
Week 11 at Seattle is not perfect, but I can start them with some confidence – Seattle’s O-Line is horrific.
Week 12 BYE is your main concern ahead, but then we got Weeks 16-17 to worry about too – vs. IND, at DAL…two of the best O-Lines in football, which is not great for FF numbers. If Arizona is your main DST, I’d hold them…find a replacement Week 12, maybe one that looks good Week 11. Then let’s reassess this during Week 13 with them at CHI. We need to see what we want to do Weeks 16-17, but so much injury can happen ahead of that…don’t worry about it too soon.
Week 12 options…
CHI-DST at DET on Thanksgiving?
CIN-DST hosting PIT.
MIA-DST hosting CAR…plus, Miami at NYJ Week 11.
NYJ-DST at HOU?
LAC-DST at DEN.
SEA-DST at WSH.
Plenty of waiver Week 12 options for Arizona sit.
-- Elijah Mitchell (8-36-0, 5-43-0/5) is an RB1 now, in case you own him and were looking over your RBs and bellyaching about how ‘your RBs are killing me’.
Mitchell looks terrific. Silky smooth runner between the tackles, and then in this game showed us he has terrific hands. He has all the RB1 traits, including a top O-Line…but they just lost key OL Mike McGlinchey so that sucks, but the O-Line is still good enough to keep Mitchell going…with his 5.3 ypc average this season.
Since Week 7, his full return from injury – he’s the #9 half-PPR RB in Fantasy.
No one is taking that job from him on the 49ers roster.
-- Is Brandon Aiyuk (6-89-1/8) back? Maybe.
He definitely looked better here than he has all season. However, Deebo Samuel (5-63-0/9) is still their best/#1 WR…and then George Kittle (6-101-1/8) is arguably the true ‘#1’. So, you have a low volume passing game…the #29 team in completed passes this season, #22 in passing TDs – and Aiyuk is it’s #3-in-the-pecking-order option…which is not that great for FF purposes. Russell Gage is his team’s new #1 WR, and no one cares…but somehow a nice game from Aiyuk out of the blue, a chunk of it happening when the game was kinda out of reach/Arizona playing softer…somehow that’s the signal Aiyuk is going to become a 2nd-half WR1.
The power of ‘draft stock’.
The power of ‘the football media pushing things…and all of us falling in line’.
I like Aiyuk just fine, but the situation is not fertile for him to be a consistent producer, and if Trey Lance takes over – even worse for pass game consistency.
-- Eno Benjamin (9-39-1) had a nice TD run in this game, and then saw most of his touches as this game was being salted away/after James Conner did a lot of damage.
I don’t believe Eno will see much work on purpose with Edmonds out. You need Arizona to push to a lead to get Eno more touches. When it’s ‘a game’ – then Conner is going to keep touching the ball.
If Arizona gets way up on Carolina fast, which could happen with their QB issues…Eno might see 10+ touches here, but it won’t be the on-purpose plan. Conner is now the full lead and Eno there for spotty relief.
Chase Edmonds didn’t matter in this offense, neither will Eno Benjamin aside from garbage time…unless Conner goes down, then it will be an Eno Benjamin/Jonathan Ward duel for touches.
-- With DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green down, Rondale Moore (5-25-0/5) saw a few more snaps/touches…but he’s not doing anything FF-special with them. He looks good, but he’s playing a bit part in the offense…no reason to change that now, with Arizona rolling.
The winner of the starting WRs down for this game was WR Antoine Wesley (3-62-0/3)…an impressive UDFA WR who has bounced around the league, but has found a home with his former college coach back at Texas Tech.
-- I believe if the 49ers lose this week to the Rams, then Kyle Shanahan will be forced to go to Trey Lance…just a gut feeling.
However, if the 49ers take down the Rams – then SF is right back into the mix of wild card teams and then has Jacksonville up next, for a likely win and then they’re back to .500 (5-5), which means Jimmy G. gets another 2-3 weeks, minimum as starter…so Lance is pushed way off the radar.
Redraft-holding Lance and hoping for an FF-payoff comes down to the outcome of this Week 10 game hosting LAR.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Aiyuk
54 = Deebo
33 = Sanu
05 = Jauan Jennings
67 = Kirk
57 = Rondale
54 = Wesley
54 = Conner
17 = Eno B
01 = Ch Edmonds
39 = Mitchell
20 = Hasty
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Titans 28, Rams 16
I've previously discussed how the Titans and Ravens have been the bane of my existence this year. Whenever I watch these two teams I just never leave impressed. I know they are decent teams, disciplined with efficient offenses and above average defenses, but it always seems to me that they don't really belong in the discussion with the best teams in the league. They seem lucky to have the records they have.
This game for instance. The narrative is that the Titans just beat down the Rams. They dominated their offensive line and forced Matt Stafford into some mistakes. This was a statement win for the Titans and proof that they are the best team in the AFC even without Derrick Henry.
Sometimes we read too much into these small moments. Sometimes players have an off day, they make uncharacteristic mistakes, or one team gets particularly lucky. Sometimes these singular games don't really mean much. Is anyone taking the Jaguars win over the Bills seriously? Of course now. So why do we assume this game was some big defining moment for the team that won?
What I saw was the Rams get backed up near their goal line twice early in the game, and Stafford threw two really stupid passes that led to TD's for the Titans. Yes, the Titans defensive line played really well this game. But those passes didn't have to occur, and they weren't solely created by the defensive pressure. Stafford isn't my favorite QB ever, but he typically doesn't make egregious mistakes like this.
But in those two simple plays Tennessee was gifted a massive lead that they just sat on. They would score again on their own soon after for a 21-3 lead that forced the Rams into playing a certain way. And it's not like the Rams weren't moving the ball. They kept getting to the redzone but just couldn't punch it in. Eventually though they got a few field goals to get the game back within reach, only for the Titans to finally embark on only their second scoring drive of the game to close it out.
The Titans won 28-16, but their first two scores were gifts that radically changed the nature of the game. You cannot overlook that fact. And outside of that it seemed to me that the Rams were the better team overall. It was just hard to see given the warped game state.
I realize all of this sounds like I'm making excuses and not seeing reality, but I truly believe that if you played this game 10 times the Rams win 6 of them. There's not a huge difference between them. I think the Titans are a good team, the same team they've been for the past few years, solid but unspectacular. But the Rams are just a bit better in my opinion.
Regardless, both of these teams are making the playoffs. The Titans should win their division barring a collapse. And the Rams just took a massive step back in the race for the NFC West. This was their chance to get a good win and hope the Cardinals lost without Kyler Murray. Instead, the exact opposite happened, and now they are going to need a good bit of luck to snatch the division last second. This team would have a much easier time getting through the playoffs with a 1st or 2nd seed. Making them go on the road as a 5th seed will likely be too much. I don't think they are tough enough to fight through cold, outdoor conditions later in the season.
Fantasy Notes
--In the competition to replace Derrick Henry we saw Adrian Peterson (10-21-1) get first crack at it, but he was completely ineffectual. They may continue to roll with him, but I think some of his carries could be in danger because it was D'Onta Foreman (5-29-0) that was the most effective back (looked a lot like a mini Henry as RC has mentioned for a couple years now) and he was getting mixed in a lot more in the 2nd half. Jeremy McNichols (7-24-0, 3-11-0/3) will likely continue to split with one of those two though because he is the passing game back.
Based on what I saw here I don't think anyone runs away with the job even though if it was up to me Foreman would be my new 15 carry a game lead back. He's the lottery ticket if you are so inclined.
--AJ Brown (5-42-0/11) is so obviously the #1 receiver here it's not even funny. Julio Jones (4-35-0/4) is a shell of himself. Brown is playing good ball. The trouble for him is that without Henry, defenses are not afraid of the run and can key on him much more. Those inside slants that he normally feasts on suddenly have a lot more linebackers crowding them, and Tannehill, while still a good QB, doesn't have the same windows to throw into now. I love the volume Brown is getting, and I think he'll be fine the rest of the year, but maybe expect more WR1.5 than the top 10 guy everyone hoped for.
--On that note, Ryan Tannehill (19-27 for 143 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is probably out of the QB2 discussion. He's still an above average QB, but it's become clear that Henry's presence really boosted his production.
--One interesting note that RC touched on in an update, was that Tennessee receiver Josh Reynolds (also formerly a Ram) was released this week and claimed by the Lions...where he reunites with Jared Goff from his Rams days. I absolutely love this move for the Lions. Reynolds has turned into a very solid receiver and he could immediately become their best guy. It will be tough sledding to be the featured guy on a weak passing attack, but there's some hope here. You can ignore it in redraft for the moment but keep an eye out here if he starts to trend upwards. In dynasty this is a nice deep stash move.
--Matt Stafford (31-48 for 294 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) had an off game. Everyone does occasionally. He's fine, still an almost guaranteed top 5 lock at QB.
--Don't look now, but Robert Woods (7-98-0/10) is suddenly the #12 WR in ppr leagues for the year. It's not flashy production, but he's getting his usual 4-5 catches for 60 yards and a TD chance every week. This year it's been a little more inconsistent usage than in the past because he's just another cog in the machine, but it's working and he also gets a handoff or two every game to bolster his numbers. Not bad.
--The guy who gets shafted for fantasy numbers most weeks in this offense is Van Jefferson (3-41-0/7). I know Woods is better for fantasy, but Jefferson still looks more important for the offense to function at its peak. If Woods is out with injury, nobody knows the difference, but if Jefferson had to sit out suddenly Stafford doesn't have his field stretcher anymore and the range of the offense shrinks.
--Darrell Henderson (11-55-0) is still one of my favorite buys in redraft if you can still trade this late. The Rams are rarely going to be down like this where they have to mostly abandon the run.
IDP Notes
--Chris Collinsworth pissed me off again this game (he has a habit of it) when he said that Kupp versus Elijah Molden (8 tackles) in the slot was the biggest mismatch on the field and the Rams hadn't exploited it yet.
That's because it's not the biggest mismatch on the field. Molden is already one of the better slot corners in the league and he's still getting his feet under him. In the past four games, Molden has played 80% of the snaps three times, and in all three games he had 8 or more tackles each time. Guess Collinsworth didn't watch every snap of Molden's from college and his young pro career...otherwise he wouldn't have said something so idiotic.
Snap Counts of Interest
78 = Cooper Kupp
78 = Robert Woods
75 = Van Jefferson
45 = AJ Brown
43 = Julio Jones
22 = Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
42 = Geoff Swaim
27 = MyCole Pruitt
26 = Jeremy McNichols
19 = Adrian Peterson
12 = D'Onta Foreman
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Steelers 29, Bears 27
This game was such a snooze fest between two boring ass teams for the first 55 minutes of the game that I turned it off well before that. Little did I know the last 5 minutes would be some of the craziest all year.
The Steelers led 14-3 at the half. It wasn't what I would call a dominant half for them, but they appeared to be the better team by a decent margin.
A good way into the second half and the score was 20-6 Steelers with no hope in sight for the Bears. They couldn't move the ball and couldn't take it away from Pittsburgh. But then David Montgomery got going and suddenly it was 20-13 and the door opened a crack. Pittsburgh would extend their lead to 10 but a fumbled ball on special teams got picked up by the Bears for a TD and suddenly the Steelers were sweating a 23-20 game.
Pitt would kick another field goal to make it 26-20, but Chicago put together their best drive of the day to go up 27-26 with 1:45 to go. It was too much time, however, and the Steelers calmly marched down the field for a FG to take the lead 29-27.
The Bears had only seconds remaining but picked up enough yards to give themselves a chance at a 65 yard field goal. The ball clanked off the crossbar, inches too short and the Steelers held on for the win.
Despite the exciting finish, these are still two boring, not great teams. Both have decent defenses and terrible offenses dragging them down. Roethlisberger is beyond done. It's just sad now. Watching him put every ounce of strength into a 30 yard wounded duck is pathetic. And Justin Fields is just not a good QB. The physical gifts are nice but underused, and while he is capable of the occasional great throw, they simply come far too infrequently and are mixed in with a bunch of terrible, rushed, inaccurate throws.
There is a group of analysts that rush to proclaim his obvious greatness every time he does something marginally good, and I believe they are spurred to do this because they believe he has been unfairly attacked for whatever reason. In their minds his greatness is beyond question. It's obvious that he's amazing, and so whenever anyone questions his ability, that person must have some ulterior motive. It's a problem with society in general these days, but also beginning to crop up frequently in football analysis these days.
For example, PFF somehow gave Fields their highest grade for a QB this week. You have got to be kidding me. That is utterly ridiculous, and I challenge anyone to try and explain how that is accurate. Right after this information was released, the pro-Fields crowd began howling that the Bears had their QB1 for the next 15 years and he was better than Mahomes...blah blah blah. It's a bunch of drivel. Fields is one of the worst 5 starting QB's right this second, and I don't see much hope for him to improve.
The Steelers move to 5-3 and are without a doubt one of the worst teams with a record that good. Other than the Bills, every team they've beaten was either bad or mediocre or very injured (Browns). The good teams they just lose to because they don't have the firepower to compete (or rather they do have the firepower but Ben can't/won't get it to them). I don't think they can keep up with the Browns and Ravens in the division or possibly even the Bengals. I see them headed for an 8-9 or 9-8 record and possible last place finish in the division.
The Bears fall to 3-6. They aren't one of the absolute worst teams in the league, but they aren't far off either. If the defense wasn't decent they would be in Houston territory. Fields isn't getting any better either, so I don't see how they finish with more than 5 wins or so. It's hard to win games when you can barely score 17 points on offense most games.
Fantasy Notes
--Woo boy we need to get Najee Harris (22-62-1, 3-16-0/3) some more touches! He's obviously a huge weapon with his 2.8 ypc average. Of course, reality doesn't matter for fantasy. Najee is just another big, average RB with decent hands, but because the Steelers believe he's a weapon, he gets used like one, and usage is the #1 key to fantasy stats. He's as safe an RB1 as you'll find this year. However, 2022 is a whole different animal, and I can already see him being a huge disappointment after he gets drafted 1st overall.
--Chase Claypool (3-30-0/5) hurt his foot towards the end of this game and will likely be out several weeks. Of course, he was just another WR4 with the occasional splash week anyways, so it's not like you're losing much. Claypool is dead so long as Ben is there, but if Pittsburgh ever replaces him with an actual QB then Claypool rockets up to the top WR in all formats. He is the single most physically gifted WR in the league today and a caliber of weapon we haven't seen since Calvin Johnson. He should be acquired cheaply in all dynasty leagues simply because the upside is so high.
--People are joking that Diontae Johnson (5-56-0/6) will get a million targets without Claypool playing, but Claypool wasn't a big part of this offense anyways. Nothing changes for Diontae. He's always been Ben's bff and will get his usual 12 targets for 8 catches and less than 10 ypc most weeks.
--Some analysts are pushing James Washington (1-42-0/3) as a guy to pick up to replace Claypool, but what's the point? Washington is a deep ball guy and Ben can't throw deep anymore. Their one connection here was busted coverage and Ben threw the worst deep pass I've seen outside of a Darnold game. The only reason it was completed is because the coverage was actually in good position but the ball was so underthrown that only Washington could come back to it. Also Claypool wasn't getting many targets anyways and wasn't useful in fantasy, so I fail to see why tiny little Washington would suddenly work where 6'5” 242 lb Claypool couldn't.
--The player you want with CC out in redraft now is Pat Freiermuth (5-43-2/6), Ben's other best friend, but you won't be able to acquire him after this 2 TD game. Freiermuth has seen his role expand for weeks now, and it was just a matter of time for him to have a game like this. He's a safe outlet for Ben when Diontae isn't open and looks like a TE1 the rest of the year.
--I've hammered Justin Fields (17-29 for 291 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 8-45-0) enough at this point that I'm not going to beat a dead horse. He's not a good QB, although he can be plausible if given enough protection as most QB's can. For fantasy though I'm a buyer in redraft if you need a safe QB2. Since he started running last week, things are opening up for him just like I theorized and the running points give him a high floor.
--David Montgomery (13-63-0, 2-17-0/2) returned from a multiple week injury with no practice time and looked as good as he ever has. Tell me again why practice is so important. He walked right back in and took most of the carries with very little Khalil Herbert (4-13-0) mixed in despite how great he's been. Matt Nagy is such a genius.
--Darnell Mooney (3-41-1/6, 1-15-1) is the WR to own here and has been ever since Fields took over. He is the WR1 not Allen Robinson (4-68-0/6). Robinson might be a WR 2.5-3 now instead of the nothing he has been all year. If he's on waivers and you're desperate then go for it, but don't actually spend resources to acquire him.
I called Cole Kmet (6-87-0/8) a slug earlier this year, and at the time he was moving like one. This is the first time I've actually seen him look somewhat plausible. He's still not the next great TE that's for sure, but he's something now instead of nothing. His numbers this game weren't really anything he was doing so much as Fields running around and finding him on broken plays down the field. I don't think you can count on this connection every week though. There are plenty of other TE's I'd rather have even if you're desperate.
IDP Notes
--Not sure how he's been flying under the radar since he was such a huge name just a year or two ago, but Minkah Fitzpatrick (8 tackles) is playing solid football as always and has been quite good for fantasy as well. He has 8 or more tackles in four of his last five games.
Snap Counts of Interest
65 = Diontae Johnson
58 = Chase Claypool
41 = James Washington
26 = Ray-Ray McCloud
51 = Pat Freiermuth
37 = Zach Gentry
53 = David Montgomery
10 = Khalil Herbert
50 = Darnell Mooney
48 = Allen Robinson
32 = Marquise Goodwin
48 = Cole Kmet
22 = Jesse James
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Colts 45, Jets 30
Indy came out running the ball down the Jets throats, but NY had a new QB playing lights out football, the savior that was finally making New York football competitive and fun to watch, Mike White.
White would quickly tie the game up after the Colts took an early lead...and then he hurt his hand hitting a helmet while passing and was done for the day.
You can imagine how it went from there. The Colts just ran the ball at will and it was over in the blink of an eye...until it wasn't. Somehow, the Jets clawed their way back into the game and nearly had a chance to cover/make it a one possession game at the end, but a Josh Johnson pass was batted into the air for the game sealing interception. Ball game.
I think the mainstream takeaway from this game will be that the Colts smashed the lowly Jets and are back to being a dominant team. The Jets will get a pat on the head for beating Cincy (which does look a lot less impressive now) and be dismissed yet again. I think that's an oversimplification.
Yes, the Colts dominated here and are starting to look like a real team, but Jonathan Taylor and the run game are hiding some very real deficiencies here, namely Carson Wentz, who continues to look like the shaky QB we came to know from his days in Philly. The guy operates fine most of the time but still makes far too many completely baffling decisions that lead to turnovers. If the Colts do somehow make the playoffs Wentz is going to be the death of them. You can't count on him to play solidly enough for 3-4 straight games.
The defense isn't a problem exactly, but they aren't helping matters much either. They should have crushed the Jets without White, but instead they ultimately allowed 30 points and it should have been more.
They are now 4-5 after a disastrous start, but can't seem to make up any ground on Tennessee who keeps winning as well. A month ago I thought the schedule would take down the Titans and allow Indy to catch up, but that simply hasn't happened. I'm not sure Indy can catch them now, but it's still a possibility, especially with Derrick Henry out.
I don't think the Jets should be summarily dismissed either. They lost their QB yet again, and while it's impossible to say that they could have kept it close with him, it's hard not to believe it would have at least been more competitive. White looks like the real deal, and if they can get him back they suddenly look better than some of the other teams with similar records like Jacksonville, Philly, and Miami.
Fantasy Notes
--Mike White (7-11 for 95 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) has now played 9 quarters of football and thrown for 702 yards, 5 TD/4 INT, with a 72.7% completion percentage, and several of the interceptions weren't really his fault. It's a small sample size, but I've been impressed with what I've seen for the most part, although he did have quite a few inaccurate throws against the Patriots. That hasn't been the case in his other two games.
It's impossible to make any solid judgment on him right now, but I'm inclined to think that he can play, and I think he's earned the right to get another look over Zach Wilson. I think Saleh is going to agree. Unfortunately, the Bills are up next and are probably going to be incredibly pissed off after losing to the Jaguars, so I do not envy whichever QB gets the start. If White does start and gets beat up he's liable to lose that job and never get it back. That would be unfair and a very unfortunate turn of events for him, but that's the way the NFL typically goes for players that weren't drafted highly.
--Taking over for White was longtime NFL veteran Josh Johnson (27-41 for 317 yards, 3 TD/1 INT, 4-18-0). He's been a quality backup for various teams over the years and always an underrated player in my opinion. He had a quality fantasy day here in garbage time and very nearly got the Jets back into this at the end. If he starts against Buffalo though I don't see any chance of him repeating this performance.
--If you caught RC's stream before the game, you probably heard me opine that I was considering starting Elijah Moore (7-84-2/8) for the week. Well, I ended up not starting him and immediately regretted that decision. Moore is the top guy here now. What that's worth in fantasy is hard to say and likely depends on the QB. You ideally want White going forward. Just be careful with your expectations for Moore. He scored 2 TD's on a solo night game so he's going to be really hot now after all the preseason hype around him. To me he looks ok, but honestly I don't see special yet, just a fast guy getting good targets.
--The best WR in my eyes for NY is Keelan Cole (5-66-0/8). He came up with a couple of spectacular receptions here. Unfortunately, even though he tied for the lead in targets with Moore, it didn't look like he was the focus of the offense, just happened to be open for a lot of garbage time catches against soft zone coverages. I don't think you can count on Cole in this offense right now.
--He'll get overshadowed by the Moore performance, but Jamison Crowder (5-38-0/7) is still usable in desperation starts in ppr leagues. He's on the field a ton and still getting plenty of targets. He's averaged 7 targets, 4 catches, and about 48 yards per game over his last five games. Not many TD's, but if you need a few safe ppr points Crowder can help out there.
--Shockingly, Denzel Mims (1-20-0/5) was on the field a ton here and actually got 5 targets. He looks like an afterthought among the pass catchers, but the increase in snaps is interesting. Maybe he's working his way out of the doghouse? He's easily the biggest, most physically talented receiver on the roster, and if he can develop a connection with White that could be pretty good for fantasy. We're not there yet, but I'll be keeping an eye on this moving forward.
--The guy you can count on in this offense, if White is the QB, is rookie RB Michael Carter (13-49-0, 1-37-0/2). He is the lead back now for sure and a RB2 in ppr with White.
--Ty Johnson (4-21-0, 2-40-1/3) could also be FF usable in ppr if White comes back. He's going to take 5-8 carries most games and add 4 or 5 catches too.
--I guess I was dead wrong about Jonathan Taylor (19-172-2, 2-28-0/2). Apparently he can average 9 ypc every week! It's been a nice run and the team definitely knows now that he's their best player, but you should definitely temper your expectations just a bit. That average has to come down most games. It's just not sustainable. The good news is that the Indy offensive line is now fully healthy and are absolutely mauling people. The Jets were a particularly soft run defense, but it doesn't really matter that much. Taylor has made his case and his touches, which were a question early in the year, are now a certainty. He's going to tough the ball and produce. Top 5 RB lock.
--Michael Pittman (5-64-1/6) wasn't needed as much here in a blowout but continues to produce like a WR1 because he is now. Wentz isn't looking for anyone else the way he looks for Pittman.
--Nyheim Hines (6-74-1, 4-34-0/6) had another one of his huge games and will be a hot waiver wire pickup this week. Somebody will start him and get 3 points next week before dropping him immediately after. I wouldn't bother with him. With Taylor's emergence he's dropped in priority on this offense.
IDP Notes
--Jets safety Ashtyn Davis (10 tackles) has 24 total tackles over his last three games as a full time starter. He's playing well and could get another boost if Marcus Maye is out for a while.
--Quick, who's the leading tackler for the Colts? Did you say Darius Leonard? You would be incorrect. It's actually his partner, Bobby Okereke (11 tackles, 1 pd) that leads the team with 78, 11 more than Leonard. Leonard is making hay causing turnovers this year, but Okereke is a very solid starter himself and quickly becoming a strong producer in IDP leagues.
--The third leading tackler for the Colts is another very good FF producer this year, safety Kenny Moore (9 tackles). He's only 4 behind Leonard on the year and has at least 7 tackles in each of his 5 games. He's had less than 7 tackles only twice all year.
Snap Counts of Interest
53 = Michael Pittman
52 = Zach Pascal
23 = Ashton Dulin
43 = Jonathan Taylor
28 = Nyheim Hines
42 = Jack Doyle
38 = Mo Alie-Cox
61 = Jamison Crowder
46 = Denzel Mims
46 = Elijah Moore
38 = Keelan Cole
48 = Ryan Griffin
15 = Tyler Kroft
45 = Michael Carter
32 = Ty Johnson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Rams 37, Jags 7
No one was surprised by this outcome. It was kinda close/back and forth a bit, neither team playing all that well, until 2-minutes before the half…when LAR got the ball for a 2-minute and raced down for a field goal to take a two-score lead. The Rams then came out of halftime and went right down and scored and the floodgates opened. The Rams did not play well, but I assume they were a bit sloppy because they knew they were winning that game all along. The Jags are a helpless lot.
The Rams are now (8-4) and playing a huge MNF game vs. Arizona. Win, and division title hopes abound. Lose and they are in the wild card chase for the rest of the season. I believe they get beaten soundly this week (14) but will hit 10 wins, at least, and get a wild card (where hopefully they will be trounced…I hate what the Rams are doing in 2021, sorry).
The Jaguars are now (2-10) and are sinking to the top laughingstock team in the NFL. Urban Meyer has proven to be the worst personnel manager, the worst in-game tactician, and the worst personality of all the NFL head coaches – quite a triple crown feat for his first year. The fact that ownership put up with his bar incident and everything else means the Jags are now the clear worst ownership in the league…the Jets and Bears can rejoice! This team is a full-on disaster, and they are so over their coach that the once kinda good things about them (blocking, D-Line) developing in the middle of the season are starting to collapse.
The Jaguars play the Jets and Texans ahead, but I would bet they lose to both and thus have a chance to secure that #1 pick…which won’t matter, because they’ll butcher it.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The most interesting thing about this game, for me, was the RB situation for Jacksonville…not the Rams DHendo injury/Sony Michel start.
Early in the game, James Robinson (8-24-0, 1-11-0/4) fumbled and was essentially benched. JRob has been fighting a heel issue the past few weeks to even work his way into playing, and the Jags best offensive weapon pushed through again this week…and for that, he got benched for fumbling…and was brought back in to start the 2nd-half, and then out again for stretches of time – but then a mild controversy erupted this week because JRob was brought back in for touches late in the game down 30 despite that being a good time to rest the heel issue. He’s basically got treated like a jobber…after fighting to play through a heel issue.
The players are noticing this Urban mismanagement (that Urban passive-aggressive ‘blamed’ on the RB coach) and are full scale quitting on the head coach…they hate him, you can see it their play…and now even milquetoast Trevor Lawrence is chirping a bit on the JRob situation.
All that to say: Robinson still has a heel issue. He was limited Wednesday. He didn’t practice Thursday, but did practice full Friday. I wonder how much JRob is inclined to fight his way back into the lineup for this sinking ship that just disrespected him? Something to watch if you’re a Robinson owner…and that Carlos Hyde has some deep-sleeper grab and hold appeal, maybe. The Jags stink, so their main RB can only be so good. We are taking down JRob’s projections for the rest of the season.
-- There’s an RB (mild) controversy with the other team in this game, as well. Darrell Henderson got hurt and didn’t play Week 13, while Sony Michel (24-121-1, 3-8-0/4) ran for 100+ yards against the quitting Jags…which is good enough for the media/fans to fire up an RB controversy.
No achievement is greater for fans than a running back rushing for 100+ yards in a game. (95 yards is boring, no big deal. BUT 100+ is pure football bliss and clinches your greatness as a player…for that week, which is all that matters to the media/fans. Doesn’t matter it took 24 carries and was against the Jags.
The big question is – was Sean McVay sucked into this too, as he often is? I don’t know…I don’t think so. McVay usually blathers on to the press about things he loves or doesn’t. With Michel he’s been more patting him on the head.
Henderson is not 100% but should play this week. If he does, I suspect Henderson will be the lead as usual but Michel will sprinkle in and could got hot and steal more time/touches, but that intent is to push Henderson if fully healthy…is my read of this situation. Henderson not being 100% can alter that. We’ll see if he practices fully this week or not.
-- Can I just say how awful Trevor Lawrence (16-28 for 145 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) is for a ‘generational QB’. What a scouting malfeasance, once again, by your trusted football gods.
Zach Wilson was better this week vs. Philly than Lawrence will ever be in his career, and Wilson is not close to hitting his stride yet.
Lawrence has 1 TD pass in his last 5 games. He can’t even garbage time a TD pass. The Jaguars have scored 10 or fewer points in a game in four of their last 6 games.
So, Laquon Treadwell (4-62-0/5) is rising in targets here for the past few weeks, but you won’t get much more than 10 PPR points in a game because the odds he catches a TD pass are so low.
-- You’re better off with Rams #3 WR Van Jefferson (6-41-1/8)…who is still plagued with drops issues, but he plays for the Rams who have Matt Stafford and OBJ, whom the media adores, so it doesn’t matter because everything Rams is golden (for the media). All the attention Kupp-OBJ get is a beautiful thing for Van J. to be able to get open on lesser coverage and make plays/FF points in this offense despite his issues catching the ball recently
-- Three IDP notes…
1) CB Nevin Lawson (7 tackles) is now starting for the Jags at CB. Could be temporary through their DB injuries. But he is starting and has 6.5 tackles, 0.50 PDs in his two recent starts.
2) Rudy Ford (6 tackles, 1 TFL, 0.5 sacks) is the apple of Urban Meyer’s eye…the only guy Urban seems to have a connection with. Ford went from newfound starter to part time player over the past 4 weeks, but Ford started this game and put up some IDP numbers in his joker-type position he plays. If Ford is starting, he’ll put up decent IDP numbers…but we don’t know what his status is now, it changes every 2 weeks it seems.
3) As I touched on earlier, when Sean McVay ‘likes’ something he blabbers it to the press every chance he gets. He’s the most loudmouth coach in the NFL. His new love affair (I hope Matt S. isn’t jealous) is with rookie LB Ernest Jones (9 tackles, 1 PD, I INT, 0.5 sacks).
McVay has moved/traded Kenny Young, and quasi-benched Troy Reeder to now push this rookie…that’s something for IDP.
I can tell you as a scout, I don’t get it…not at all. I didn’t see anything with Jones in college and haven’t seen anything great from him in the pros…not enough to warrant this red carpet treatment. He’s got the mindset and effort, but not the talent/athleticism in my book. We’ll see if he changes my mind ahead but right now, I don’t get it – and it’s a problem for this defense, but good for his IDP hopes.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Kupp
53 = Van J
36 = OBJ
16 = Skowronek
29 = Hyde
26 = JRob
55 = Treadwell
49 = Marvin J
31 = Shenault
16 = T Austin
3 = Mickens
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Ravens 34, Vikings 31
The Vikings started off hot here and had a double digit lead over the Ravens early. It was 17-3 heading into the last couple minutes of the first half before Lamar led another easy TD during the 2-minute drill. It was 17-10 at the half but the Vikings had been dominant.
The second half started with a bang as rookie Kene Nwangwu took a kick back 99 yards for a TD to extend the Vikings lead to 24-10. After that it was mostly downhill for Minnesota. They couldn't stop the Ravens to save their lives and before you could blink Baltimore was somehow up 31-24.
Minnesota finally put together another good drive to tie the game and managed to keep the Ravens from scoring with a minute left. Baltimore got the ball to start OT and had a good drive going, but Lamar had a pass batted at the line and intercepted. All the Vikings had to do was drive a few yards and kick a field goal for the win, but they couldn't even manage that. Baltimore got the ball back, and it was one chance too many for Lamar. Justin Tucker kicked the winning field goal yet again.
Maybe I'm the idiot, but there are two winning teams this year that I just cannot get fully behind. The Titans and the Ravens. I'm just never impressed when I watch them, but they keep winning so it's probably me that's wrong.
Personally, I think both teams are good but not great, not the type of team that should be a favorite to win the Superbowl, and yet here they both are leading the AFC right now. Lamar is just so hard to stop and has finally figured out how to come back when he's down in games, something that used to be a weakness for him.
I look at their schedule and I'm not impressed though. The only teams they've beaten solidly were the Broncos and Chargers. Every other win was either a comeback from way down or a lucky close win. For now though they have a sizeable lead on their North rivals, and it will be hard for any of them to catch Baltimore as they'll likely be beating up on each other. Unless Cleveland gets on a roll and starts pounding everyone I think Baltimore manages to walk away with 11-12 wins and a high seed in the playoffs.
Minnesota wants to be a good team, but they are clearly missing a few pieces still. The offense can be very good at times and then look very average for a few quarters. Very inconsistent still. The defense is much improved over last year but still not quite there. I think they probably put it together enough to get to 9-10 wins and a possible wild card spot, but they aren't taking down Green Bay this year.
Fantasy Notes
--Lamar Jackson (27-41 for 266 yards, 3 TD/2 INT, 21-120-0) is at his best in these evenly matched games where he doesn't get completely blown out but also can't build a big lead. He is the Ravens offense right now since their RB's are terrible. Where other QBs like Mahomes and Rodgers can struggle in fantasy on the rare occasions the passing game isn't working, Lamar is almost never held down because he can always use his legs to pile up points, especially in 4-pt leagues. Never overlook the high floor of running QBs like Lamar, Hurts, Watson, and very soon Trey Lance.
--The best RB for Baltimore is without a doubt Ty'Son Williams, but he's been relegated to the trash heap for reasons I will never understand. In his place Devonta Freeman (13-79-0, 2-4-2/3) is the lead back and doing a decent job now. Almost any RB can succeed if your QB is enough of a running threat, and Freeman is no exception.
If you need numbers at RB Freeman is a decent option right now. He's going to get about a dozen carries a game with a shot at a TD. That's better than you hope for with guys like David Johnson.
--I wouldn't try Le'Veon Bell (11-48-1) though. He looks completely shot and is clearly inferior to Freeman. That should tell you how far he's fallen.
--Marquise Brown (9-116-0/12) is quietly the #6 WR in ppr this year. Every game it seems like he either manages to hit 100 yards or a TD to put him over 15 points.
--Rookie Rashod Bateman (5-52-0/8) made his debut and is already the #2 WR for Baltimore. He looked fine. I couldn't really tell the difference between him and Devin Duvernay (2-8-1/2). He's a good player, but unless Brown gets injured his ceiling seems hard-capped in this offense.
--I've said it for years, Kirk Cousins (17-28 for 187, 2 TD/0 INT) is a great QB to have against inferior teams, but he just does not perform well against above average defenses. His schedule ahead has a few nice matchups, but for the most part it's filled with pretty good defenses. I wouldn't expect too many more big games from Captain Kirk this year.
--Dalvin Cook (17-110-0, 3-12-0/3) was fantastic here. He's never been my favorite runner and he gets hurt far too often, but when he's on the field he is very good. News broke this week that he's being accused of abuse by an ex-girlfriend, and with all the other stories about Watson, Ruggs, and Arnette floating around, this is potentially very bad.
You never know with these types of situations what to expect. This could get put on hold until more information comes out, or if the wrong type of info starts circulating, Cook could get released in a heartbeat. Until we know more you don't really have many options. If you're spooked then you can try and move him for something fair if there are any takers, but it's entirely possible you have to just hold him and hope for the best.
--Justin Jefferson (3-69-1/5) is the 15th ranked WR for ppr on the season and that feels like a disappointment based on where you had to draft him. I know RC has come to be quite impressed by him. I know he's good, but I just never walk away thinking he's a star. Maybe it's just this boring 1990's offense and Cousins holding him back. Diggs is certainly a good point for that argument.
--While Jefferson feels like a disappointment, Adam Thielen (2-6-1/7) probably feels like a nice value if you drafted him and he's only two spots higher than Jefferson at 13th on the year in ppr. Again, I feel like it's not any diminished skills by Thielen that's holding him back. He looks the same as he always has to me. He keeps catching TD's though, and as we've learned from Derrick Henry and Marquise Brown, you just have to keep riding that train while it lasts.
--Tyler Conklin (5-45-0/7) was likely a bit of a letdown after expectations got high about him facing the Ravens. It really wasn't a bad week though. As bad as the TE market has been, this stat line is nice to have every week. Conklin is definitely involved in the offense now. I like him to finish as a top 12 TE but more in the back end of that range.
--RC touched on it briefly, but you better get used to us bitching about Kene Nwangwu not getting enough touches the next 5-6 years. The guy is a physical specimen, but coaches know way more than us about who is good so I'm sure they'll keep him buried on special teams and maybe give him a carry or two per game.
In 2025 after he gets signed by the Patriots in free agency we'll all collectively lose our minds at the fantasy implications before we realize that the Patriots suck for RB fantasy numbers. He'll get stuck in a maddening rotation with three other backs for a couple years before bouncing around to the Bears, Giants, and Bengals for a couple seasons. Finally, in the year 2031 he will have a breakout year for the Chargers after coming off the bench behind main starter Breece Hall, and you can rest assured that FFM will be there to make sure you take him in the 15th round of redraft on the off chance that this time will be different.
IDP Notes
--Eric Kendricks (17 tackles) never gets mentioned as one of the best linebackers in the game, but he should. This guy has been one of the top tacklers in the league for years now. He's #4 on the year in tackles and not slowing down.
--Rookie safety Camryn Bynum (12 tackles, 1 pd) stepped in for Harrison Smith while he's out with COVID and was quite impressive. I really didn't expect him to look so good considering he's moving from college CB to NFL safety. He's got very good instincts for the position, decent athleticism, and ok tackling ability. Didn't look like a huge hitter but he gets guys down.
I really liked how he was always in a good position and seemed to have a good grasp of what the offense was doing. He nearly came up with an interception early because he read Lamar's eyes and broke on a ball intended for a receiver he wasn't even covering. He'll be a starter in short order and looks like a solid 10 year player based on this first impression.
Snap Counts of Interest
80 = Marquise Brown
65 = Rashod Bateman
41 = Devin Duvernay
57 = Devonta Freeman
23 = Le'Veon Bell
18 = Tyson Williams
48 = Adam Thielen
43 = Justin Jefferson
26 = KJ Osborn
47 = Tyler Conklin
18 = Luke Stocker
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Chiefs 13, Packers 7
I did not expect to see this game tape…
I didn’t expect to see Jordan Love so frozen in fear playing football (I thought he was over all that watching him this preseason) and then in response, Patrick Mahomes wasn’t much better…a sudden trend – Mahomes looking sloppy/off.
A Rodgers-led Packers would have obliterated a terrible Chiefs team, but KC gets lucky again and beats COVID-hindered GB to jump to (5-4)…tied for last in the AFC West. We see KC as a 9-10 win team with 11-win upside if they can get their blocking issues fixed somehow.
I think Green Bay is the best team in football…in waiting. If they could get LT David Bakhtiari back and Jaire Alexander (and not sure they will) as well…this could be the NFC’s top team. The Pack get unlucky and lose here due to Jordan Love and fall to (7-2), but they should win 12-13 games and cakewalk to the NFC North title. If they get healthy down the stretch – they’re going to the Super Bowl, especially if they get home field advantage.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s start with Jordan Love (19-34 for 190 yards, 1 TD/1 INT)…
His 2nd year in the league. His first NFL start. Looked very good, promising in the preseason but looked exactly like I feared/scouted him coming out of college – he has the physical tools, but he doesn’t have the killer instinct.
Love looked like a rookie here. Only, he’s not a rookie…and all the top 2021 rookies didn’t look like rookies as much when they were shoved into 2021 playing time. Justin Fields has looked the most rookie-like early on in 2021. Tua Tagovailoa looked way out of his element as a rookie in 2020. But in the recent years, we’ve seen rookie QBs waltz right in and take command…even if they made mistakes, they didn’t look rattled. Mike White didn’t look rattled at all when he was forced in to his opportunity, nor did Cooper Rush. But Jordan Love…he looked rattled…looked like he doesn’t really feel comfortable as an NFL quarterback.
For approx. three quarters, the KC defense blitzed Love every chance they had, and Love was reduced to blindly throwing passes to Davante Adams (6-42-0/14) as a response…and most every one of them didn’t land. Even when Love completed passes, they were forced/miracle catches/nearly picked/off target by a mile.
Just when Love’s career seemed over, in the 4th-quarter, Love started to get his feet underneath himself. He started to fire rockets more on target, more looking like he knew what he was doing. The 4th-quarter Jordan Love looked like a 1st-round pick QB of the future…but only for moments in-between nervous blind throws, but enough to start moving the ball.
I would have thought, after watching him in the preseason, that Love was way further along than this. In this era of young QB play, to me, saying ‘I expected him to be nervous in his first real action’ is a red flag in the year 2021 because many of the top guys are not nervous – they may not have the right tools, or can’t read defenses well, but they aren’t scared when thrown into the fire. All my preseason love for Jordan Love…it got chopped down to size here. Love was rattled, jittery…not in command of anything.
Now, I’m willing to give him another chance…or several. The tools are obvious. There were moments. But I’m judging what happened right now. Love looked like a similar/less-than Trey Lance with no running ability. That’s not good for FF output hopes. There’s enough tools and hope that there is ‘hope’, but it’s not a sure thing in his ability to mentally process and produce in the NFL along with those tools. He’s not the first one to have that said…he’s about the millionth.
If he’s forced to start Week 10, then I’d be against more than ‘for’…and I’d project a similar game as he had here, maybe – but I’d be interested to see if he progresses with another week to get comfortable.
Some Green Bay fans and most Packers management have to be knocked off their ‘Rodgers can go, we got Love for the future’ pedestal right about now.
Speaking of Rodgers, I have a funny feeling he will miss Week 10…even though he should test out and be OK for Sunday. I don’t have any concrete evidence for my feelings here…just I’m wary he’s going to be cleared…and I wonder if a suspension might be coming at some point. The league handed out a big fine to the team, and minimal ones for Rodgers and Lazard, so this story might actually be over.
-- So, the QB news from this game: Jordan Love was mostly debut-terrible. Aaron Rodgers may or may not be back Week 10, and he may or may not be the center of the football/national news cycle the next week+.
…and Patrick Mahomes (20-37 for 166 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is now broken…human…FF disappointing.
What’s wrong?
We can eliminate…is now bad at football because he forgot how to play. It has to be some external factor. All the things it could be…
1) Lack of blocking/no time to throw -- and that more than anything causes great QBs to become OK/good, and the opposite with good blocking making bad/OK QBs look good.
2) He’s secretly hurt…his shoulder, arm, plant leg, and/or hand.
3) He’s got some kind of issue going on in his personal life.
4) The offensive plan is terrible. Teams are playing a deep zone against him, and he can’t figure it out.
My thoughts are:
His offensive plan has been terrible for years. Defenses have been playing back on him for years. His WR group outside of Tyreek-Kelce is terrible/CFL level talents. None of this is new to him. I can’t believe he’s fooled by a scheme at this point in his career.
He doesn’t appear to be hurt in any way.
I have no idea anything in his personal life one way or the other.
I can see that he has the least amount of pocket time he’s ever had in his career, and that he’s constantly having to evade pressure almost every drop back. This is lethal to a quarterback…it’s kryptonite – and for Mahomes it began with the Tampa Super Bowl loss and has been more present than not in 2021 games. It’s also fixable…a changed blocking scheme, different plays to counter the issue. Everything could change back in an instant…or not, if things aren’t addressed or the personnel is just that bad. Eric Bieniemy will be a multi-millionaire head coach soon if he can fix this.
Am I worried? Sure. It’s not a blip…it’s reality now – the reality is Mahomes is no longer my FF-superhero…at the moment. He has been brought to his knees; he has become average-good. And I don’t see any reason why it would change next week. My only hope is he gets low pass rush pressure opponents to take advantage of. He faces Las Vegas this week…which is suddenly a top 10 sack team, a top 5 ‘pressure per drop back’ defense. It doesn’t look like Week 10 is a great spot for a turnaround.
However, where else will we turn? What QB is on waivers who you feel confident about starting over Pat Mahomes? Mahomes has earned the right to be your ride or die – you roll him out there every week and hope the turn comes, or you die. If you have a great #2 QB…then by all means evaluate your options, but if you have hot-of-the-moment waiver options only, then…really? You’re starting Carson Wentz in a ‘good’ matchup over Mahomes? Wentz might be the data trend best option on paper, but I don’t know how you put Mahomes to the bench for guys like Wentz or White or Tannehill or Ryan or Dan Jones, etc.
Week 10…Carr or Mahomes? I don’t want to answer that…it’s too sad a reality to say what the answer probably is.
-- So goes Mahomes’s tailspin, so goes Tyreek Hill (4-37-0/11) and Travis Kelce (5-68-1/8).
Eric Bieniemy/Reid are too stupid to counter the lack of pass blocking and the defenses playing way back with small tunnel screens to Tyreek to neutralize the pass rush and make the defenders come up to him instead of staying so far back, to help open things up. They finally did it Week 8 after not doing it for two years, and it was effective…so, obviously don’t do it again here and thus the passing game numbers were down.
What will they do in Week 10? Hell, if I know, I assume the wrong thing…per usual. Like with Mahomes, you just gotta push Tyreek out there and hope Mahomes gets his groove back.
Travis Kelce suddenly looks slower/older to me…he definitely is frustrated with the passing game. He’s pouting on the field…and dropping passes…and just not looking the same. Since Week 3, he’s the #5 FF PPG TE in half-PPR. As Mahomes has fallen, so too Kelce. Still good, but not KELCE of old.
-- This is an important note to consider…a very important note…a chilling note for one particular player…
The Green Bay Packers defense…with no support from the offense in this game, just held Kansas City’s offense…playing at KC…to just one TD (and two FGs) total.
OK, think about how great it is for this GB-DST to do that…WITHOUT Jaire Alexander playing or Za’Darius and Preston Smith! All their best defenders were out coming into the game, just down to one great defender left…rookie CB Eric Stokes…and he got hurt right away and missed the entire game. AND Green Bay’s defense still dominated the vaunted KC offense.
So…
Just how awful is the KC offense right now? How much can you trust Patrick Mahomes and friends today? Scary to even ponder watching a wounded Packers defense maul them.
But don’t overlook, in all the KC mayhem – this Packers defense, if at full strength, may be the best in football.
No? You don't want to buy that?
Didn’t they just stuff Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes in back-to-back weeks…missing most of their key defenders?
After the weird start to the season…that game where Winston threw 5 TD passes and planted 38 points on them and barely over 100 yards passing…the Packers defense has been all banged up but getting better and better every week. One of the best defenses in the NFL since Week 4.
-- Final note…
Remember last week when everyone was Derrick Gore (3-13-0, 1-6-0/1) loco? It was loco, he did little-to-nothing here and worked behind Jerick McKinnon (3-26-0/3).
Snap Counts of Interest:
35 = Darr Williams
20 = McKinnon
10 = Derr Gore
40 = A Jones
24 = Dillon
29 = Marc Lewis
25 = Dom Dafney
15 = Deguara
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Browns 41, Bengals 16
After the Bengals got thoroughly beaten by the Jets last week I was prepared/hoping that this was the drubbing I needed to see to dump all Bengals stock. Unfortunately, it was not. Let me explain.
The Bengals got the ball first and drove right down the field to the 1 yard line. Burrow attempted a pass for Ja'Marr Chase, but Denzel Ward played it perfectly and picked the ball off and raced 99 yards for the pick six. 7-0 Browns.
Cincy got the ball back and immediately raced right back down the field for a TD to tie it up. The Browns finally got their first offensive possession and did the same to take a 14-7 lead.
And then the dam broke. The Bengals turned the ball over after Chase fumbled the ball, and Cleveland graciously took the short field turnover and turned it into another 7 points. From this point on it was more of the same. Cincy could never get things going and Cleveland kept piling on with a brutal running game and a couple more turnovers.
It was just one of those days for the Bengals. They didn't play particularly poorly overall. It was just a lot of bad/somewhat fluky plays that went against them and turned this into a blowout.
Now the one player that did play badly, and the one almost singularly responsible for all the turnovers and thus the blowout, was Ja'Marr Chase. He had a fumble and 2 INT's that were thrown to him in coverage. Now some will say the INT's were on Burrow, but I watched both plays a few times, and I feel comfortable saying, no, they happened because Chase's early season success has gone to his head and he thinks he's the greatest wide receiver to ever play the game.
The goal line throw his route was lackadaisical and the other INT he had no separation and the ball got tipped up to a defender. Ward and Greg Newsome had absolutely no problems with him in coverage all day. I've said it all year and I'll say it again: I don't care what kinds of numbers he's put up. I've watched all his plays. He's good. He's not special, and certainly not a Randy Moss level talent. He's had an unprecedented run of good fortune with lucky plays for TD's all year and now that those plays are drying up you're left with just another ok/pretty good receiver.
So where does that leave these two teams moving forward?
Cleveland is finally getting healthy, and you see how dominant they can be. They are a good team and one you do not want to be playing in cold outdoor playoff games. They are the better version of the Colts and Titans, a power running game with competent QB play and a solid defense. If they can stay healthy they might be able to make a run at catching Baltimore for the division title. The schedule isn't easy, but I don't think Baltimore is all that great either, so it's up in the air.
The Bengals could possibly get back into the chase for the division as well, but I think they might not be quite ready for that. They are a decent offense and decent defense but probably not good enough at any one thing to take down the better teams consistently. They are good enough to beat anyone on the right day though.
Fantasy Notes
--I'm not done with bashing Ja'Marr Chase (6-49-0/13) just yet. In addition to causing/contributing to 3 turnovers here, he also flat out dropped two easy passes including a TD. This is more of the type of game you can expect from him moving forward. He isn't going to completely disappear because he's still a decently skilled receiver, is quite athletic, and is going to get a zillion targets because he's Burrow's buddy, but this game was more the reality of what he is than not. It's been the reality all year if anyone cared to actually look at what happened and not just the box score.
Yes, he'll produce decent stats the rest of the year, but if you have him I say now is the time to sell him off at astronomical prices. Don't dump him just to dump him. Get top of the line things in return for him. If you held a dynasty draft today he's without a doubt the #1 pick for almost anyone. Sell him for nothing less.
*RC NOTE: Last two games for Ja’Marr: 4.5 rec. (11.0 targets...41% catch rate), 40.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game. The recent numbers are melting to support Ross’s (and my) theory that Chase was a blip...but also that he is not a very good WR...excellent athlete, but a sloppy worker.
--The real #1 WR you want from the Bengals is Tee Higgins (6-78-0/8). Where Chase struggled with coverage all day Higgins looked much better. I'm a buyer on Higgins.
--Joe Mixon (13-64-2, 5-46-0/5) salvaged an otherwise mediocre day with 2 TD's. You won't be able to buy low on him because of it though. He's still an RB1 as long as he's healthy.
--Joe Burrow (28-40 for 282 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) had a bad fantasy day, but he's playing good football. Neither of the picks was really his fault although he probably shouldn't have thrown the one in the endzone. If he's smart he'll start fading Chase a little and spreading the ball around to Higgins, Boyd, and Uzomah more. I like what I see from his knee and his confidence. He's getting better as the season goes on and he's already been pretty good. If you need a good backup QB he'd be on my short list.
--So I guess Baker Mayfield (14-21 for 218 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) wasn't the problem huh for OBJ huh? He had no problem hooking up with Donovan Peoples-Jones (2-86-1/3) for a 60 yard score. You can consider DPJ the new #1 receiver here now although that's probably a WR2 at best for fantasy in this low volume passing attack.. He'll still probably trail Jarvis Landry (3-11-0/5) in targets but that doesn't matter. DPJ is the threat. Landry is nearly as washed up as OBJ and should be the next to go. I'm excited to see what Baker can do in 2022 with some real receivers.
--Everything else in this Cleveland offense is a random option behind Nick Chubb (14-137-2, 2-26-0/2). In my opinion he's the best pure RB in the league and a top 5 lock as long as he's healthy. He's even better with Kareem Hunt out.
*RC NOTE: And now Chubb has COVID, so we’re back to D’Ernest as the waiver wire chase guy of the week!
IDP Notes
--Anthony Walker (14 tackles, 1 sack) has been killing it this year. In the 6 healthy games he's played he has 57 tackles (9.5/g).
Snap Counts of Interest
71 = Ja'Marr Chase
59 = Tyler Boyd
57 = Tee Higgins
47 = Joe Mixon
25 = Samaje Perine
35 = Austin Hooper
35 = David Njoku
25 = Harrison Bryant
32 = Jarvis Landry
29 = Donovan Peoples-Jones
28 = Anthony Schwartz
27 = Nick Chubb
16 = D'Ernest Johnson
