- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Football Team 34, Falcons 30
These two teams…man, are they terrible.
The Falcons should’ve won this game by 2-3 scores, easy. But Taylor Heinicke hit Terry McLaurin with a couple prayers throughout the game, and a backbreaker late, while Arthur Smith is trying to become the worst offensive mind in the NFL. Blame the McLaurin prayer TDs for keeping Washington in it. Blame Smith or the O-C for being up by 2 points with 3+ minutes left and blowing it from there.
The Falcons just allowed a TML prayer, hail mary-ish TD but Washington failed the 2-point conversion to tie the game. So, Atlanta was up by 2 points and was getting the ball with 3+ minutes left…and if they can get a 1st-down or two, they ice the game and the victory...giving them a 2-game win streak and some life to the season. Out the Falcons come on offense, and the first play they run is a handoff to Mike Davis…for -3 yards.
To that point in the game, Cordarrelle Patterson had 3 TDs, but more importantly he was gashing the Football Team on every run (5.7 ypc for the game for CP) while Mike Davis was averaging just above 1 yards per carry in the game. So, needing to push the ball and run the clock, they give it to Davis, of course, and now have 2nd and 13…and you knew they were going to now fail to drive and have to give the ball over to Washington with plenty of time unless they somehow got clever and got a 1st-down conversion…but 2nd & 13 is a bad spot. The Falcons then ran play #2 off-tackle to Davis…for a few meaningless yards (no threat of him breaking a big gain, just a pile moved)…setting up 3rd & 9…which was then a screen pass to Davis for 4 yards and punt.
The three most important plays of the game…and Cordarrelle Patterson, and his 3 TDs, was on the sidelines watching it all…not even in as a smart decoy to have to account for…while Mike Davis lost the game by virtue of his lack of playmaking ability in a key spot.
You cannot make up how stupid NFL coaches and coordinators are.
I marveled at watching an extra point kicked in this game early on. Why? Because as the camera panned to the ball being snapped and then following it up into the air as it was kicked, I got to see all the background of the stadium/seating and it caught my attention that it was pure red…blood red…nothing but empty (red) seats as far as the eye could see with a smattering of human bodies spread out here and there – and it wasn’t due to COVID because they were packed in like sardines for the TB-NE game (and most any college football game), in the rain in New England, at night (as one example). The fans are voting with their feet/wallets on the Falcons.
The Falcons are pathetic, and this new coaching staff has shown me nothing to have any hope in. Dan Quinn should win a special medal of honor that he got this team to the Super Bowl a while back. It’s an organizational problem…one of the worst run organizations in the league, suddenly.
And the thing is…they should’ve crushed Washington here. The better team was Atlanta…or maybe the less-worse team was Atlanta. Washington made all the right moves in the 2021 offseason, coming of an emerging end to 2020 – the players aren’t the problem. The math then has to be: Ron Rivera is not a great coach. Once Sean McDermott left him in Carolina, Rivera has gone 38-42 with two playoff appearances and no wins…and has been trying so hard to convince the world that Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke can be Super Bowl QBs. An indictment of his coaching mind.
11 career head coaching seasons now for Rivera and three winning seasons all total. And this talented Washington team is sinking to the bottom of the NFC East, fast.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s all celebrate Cordarrelle Patterson (6-34-0, 5-82-3/6)…the FF savior.
As Fantasy analysts we can all fight over whether a ‘B’ grade player is set up for an ‘A’ season or game…or ‘C’ season or game. We do a lot of talking and noticing and we get some right and get some wrong – but when you get Cordarrelle Patterson right weeks ahead of the crowd, and the majority of you possessed him to start the season or quickly got into him after Week 1 or 2 – this move could change the landscape of a Fantasy season. This is what I live for. This WAS a difference making minor move…that was little regarded in August.
Mark Cuban has a great line/book of the same theme – on some major things in life. His overall take is: You only have to be right once to be a major success. You could have 10 failed businesses but if the 11th is the homerun, then you win at life. You date a number of people (failed attempts) looking to find ‘the one’. Cuban is encouraging people not to let failure change them – look ahead to the next swing to hit the homerun, don’t worry about the strikeout the at bat before.
There are a lot of players we moved off-and-on the bench/rosters this season, but the identification of Patterson…for the cost of acquisition – it will go down in FFM history. Qadree Ollison, Ty Johnson, K.J. Osborn…doesn’t matter. You take those swings trying to find the Patterson nuclear bombs. Leading your league in transactions and trades…should be a staple of your FFM season. We’re taking educated scouting draft throws…looking for that ‘wow’ maneuver. CP is bringing us just that.
We found it. And if you deployed it Week 4…it was a weapon of mass destruction on your opponent. If it was on your bench…celebrate that you have ‘an answer’ in your inventory. There’s no questioning of CP anymore. It’s a delightful place to be.
…which means 5 FF points coming Week 5.
I see many analysts saying it’s not going to hold up because he’s playing a low amount of snaps. I get that logic…it’s made me cautious on starting some him the first few weeks depending on my options. Volume rules in many cases. However, with Patterson there’s two thoughts on his low snap counts…
1) They can grow from here. Potentially, we have upside here. He is the best RB on the team, after all.
2) For the first time this season, Patterson started the game. Not only started but played the first 3 plays before rotating Mike Davis in. Even the empty-headed Falcons can see the deal here…somewhat, not all the way, but baby steps towards it.
We have upside from here, but he is going to have regular old FF weeks where he doesn’t score a TD. Brace yourself for it, but I see the way they use him and I’m not worried about him week-to-week. He has to be in lineups.
You can choose to focus on the snap count here…or the output. I’m choosing the output.
Arthur Smith gets no credit for CP…this was the Bears 2020 assistant coach getting elevated to O-C in Atlanta and having worked with Patterson he wanted to bring him over and utilize him. Credit to O-C Dave Ragone.
Also, Matt Nagy had Patterson for two years…and wasted him. How long will this Nagy cancer continue to ruin players before the Bears do something?
-- Mike Davis (13-14-0, 2-12-1/2) is trying hard but looks nothing like Patterson…Davis is becoming a wasted touch suddenly. Davis is averaging 3.1 yards per carry this season.
Wayne Gallman (6-29-0) debuted/entered the game and looked more spry.
Mike Davis is a sell high, if you see an opportunity because he’s not lighting it up and all the other RBs on the team are outperforming, visually. He’s going to be the 10+ carry, 1-3 catch a game guy…so he’s stable…but not exciting.
-- Antonio Gibson (14-63-1, 2-12-0/2) was back to his starting role this week (after McKissic started and played the whole first series last week).
I think this game, this stat line is what we can expect from Gibson this year most weeks. A so-so/weaker O-Line and defenses keying on AG and letting Heinicke try and beat them. Bad news for AG’s FF value/upside. Stable RB2 with RB1 weeks.
He’s neither a buy low or sell high, he’s hold…a stable RB in a world of unstable RBs.
Washington losing Brandon Scherff kills things a little more the next 3+ weeks.
-- Is Kyle Pitts (4-50-0/9) getting any better? Yes and No.
Yes, he saw more targets here. Yes, he was involved early…but then it petered out.
No, there is no real plan for him. No, he is not getting separation the way you want.
If they lined up Pitts as a WR a lot and let him go one-on-one more with DBs, it would open up other things. If they got Pitts those TE bubble screens that I saw like 5-10 times all last season but is now seemingly happening 5-10 times a game between any two teams in 2021, then Pitts might do more NFL/FF damage. But Arthur Smith is proving to be a dolt and his O-C is getting championed for Cordarrelle (but only plays him 30% of the game)…so, Pitts is getting ZERO creative plays behind the line of scrimmage…which let’s defenses just play him as a 1980’s TE without fearing he’s going to do something unusual/fresh/creative.
You have to have a Pitts alternative until we see a real turn with Pitts. I think that turn could come, but only from TE2 to low-end TE1. I doubt this offense, or these coaches are going to push Pitts to be a high-end monster this year.
-- Taylor Heinicke (23-33 for 290 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs, 5-43-0) is probably going to keep this job over returning Ryan Fitzpatrick, but he shouldn’t. Heinicke is trying hard, racking numbers in garbage-timeish situations…so he looks better on paper then the on-field reality. Everyone of his TD passes in this game was a Jameis Winston like miracle.
In today’s NFL, if you just throw the ball at a good WR…something positive will eventually happen…worse case the pass goes incomplete, with a high chance of a defensive P.I. Good defenses have squashed Heinicke. Bad defenses have let him roll up desperation numbers. He’s playing like a younger Ryan Fitz – just heave it up and something good might happen, or worse case something neutral.
The style makes Heinicke an unpredictable, decent FF emergency option…but he isn’t taking Washington to the playoffs…or your FF team.
-- Curtis Samuel (4-19-0/4) debuted and looked fine, but he played managed snaps and Heinicke isn’t as into throwing tight window passes, and Samuel is becoming a possession WR and not being unleashed as a weapon…is my concern. Might not be a big winner for FF here until garbage-time hits, like the rest of the squad.
-- Terry McLaurin (6-123-2/13) got two TDs…one was heave and pray, and the DB was tracking it but mistimed the knock away and it landed in McLaurin’s hands seemingly right through the DBs arm…great concentration moment, but not really QB-WR magic happening…more a prayer answered. Later in the game, Heinicke heaved one to the end zone desperately to a double covered McLaurin who adjusted to the under throw, pass interfered/grabbed a DB and moved him out of his way so he could get in front of him to catch the wounded duck…and he did. Again, no real magical pitch and catch happening…but you’ll take blind heaves to a #1 deep ball WR.
I think McLaurin will be hard pressed for TDs because of Heinicke but…maybe he’ll score them because of the team being so bad, down a lot, and Heinicke is heaving him shots. I’m not selling him off desperately, but I will trade him hot if I can make a killer deal…people love him.
-- Logan Thomas will be week-to-week with a hamstring injury, so I’d expect you’ll be without him the next two weeks. Ricky Seals-Jones (2-19-0/4) played the heavy majority of snaps in his place. Thomas was working like a back-end TE1 already, so I’d say RSJ will be a lesser-than and be a random hope TE2. He’s something to consider for the desperate, but rookie John Bates (0-0-0/0) may get some run as Washington lost key OL Brandon Scherff to injury for a few weeks, and Bates is a great blocker to add to the first team to help cover for Scherff.
-- OK, now the Washington-DST is fully dead. They didn’t give the Falcons and dying Matt Ryan any real resistance. This was the game for them to step up and make Weeks 1-3 more about the tough opponents Weeks 1 and 3. Nope…they sucked here vs. ATL. No light at the end of any tunnel here.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Pitts
49 = Hurts
17 = Lee Smith
51 = Mike Davis
23 = CPatt
10 = Gallman
62 = Seals-Jones
16 = Bates
65 = McLaurin
45 = Humphries
28 = Dyami
25 = C Samuel
37 = Gibson
27 = McKissic
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Buccaneers 38, Bears 3
There's not much to take away from this one. The game was over by the end of the 1st quarter with the Bucs leading 21-0. It was 35-3 at halftime and the Bucs just kind of sat on the Bears the rest of the game. They barely even had to try.
The strange thing about this one is that it probably shouldn't have been such a huge gap. Almost every one of the Bucs scores came from a Bears turnover with a short field. Tampa didn't even have to drive the field. And even when they did score, the Bears defense wasn't making it easy on them. Brady had to squeeze multiple passes into really tight coverage. The Bears gave up 38 points, but it wasn't because of the defense. It was because Justin Fields is completely inept.
The Bucs just keep on cruising with a ridiculously easy schedule. They are going to be in the mix for the top seed in the NFC and will be one of the top Superbowl contenders. Can they win it? Absolutely. Are they the favorites? Probably not but it's hard to tell who the best NFC team is. It's up for debate between Arizona, Tampa, LAR, Dallas, and Green Bay.
The Bears fall to 3-4 and their schedule is about to eat them alive. Fields is simply not good enough to lead them through this. I don't see how they win more than 4 or 5 games this year.
Fantasy Notes
--The biggest surprise from this game had to be Khalil Herbert (18-100-0, 5-33-0/5) rushing for 100 yards on the vaunted Bucs defense. Was it a fluke? Yes and no. Herbert is for sure a solid runner. I liked what I saw from him in college, but I still didn't expect this. The best way I can think to describe him is as a slower Maurice Jones-Drew. He's a little guy but extremely strong and hard to bring down. He's patient and has good vision. Just a natural all-around RB, a solid talent. He doesn't have high end speed or agility, but I've seen enough now to know he can definitely play at this level.
Now he was helped out here by the run blocking. I'm not sure what got into the Bears but they opened him some nice holes to run through, something nobody else has managed to do against the Bucs. Maybe the Bucs just didn't care and knew the Bears couldn't beat them running the ball. Whatever it was, it worked out.
Some expected that Damien Williams would split touches with Herbert, but that didn't happen. Herbert is the one good thing the Bears have going on offense, so as long as Montgomery is out expect his numbers to remain stable. He's played his way into the #2 spot and I will be shocked if he isn't still taking 30% of the carries when Montgomery returns.
--Justin Fields (22-32 for 184 yards, 0 TD/3 INT, 8-38-0) is awful to watch. He couldn't look less interested in the game. He wants the ball out of his hands as fast as possible so he doesn't get killed. Even when he runs the ball I'm not seeing a 4.40 runner. Instead he just looks like every other generically decent running QB. For example, Lance has shown some legitimate burst as a runner. Fields has not. Not that I've seen anyways. Bears fans are in for a rough ride the next 3-4 years.
--As Fields fails he's taking this entire receiving corp with him. Allen Robinson (2-16-0/4) has a mere 23 catches on the year. I've seen a lot of Twitter analysts saying he's a buy low...no, just no. It's not his fault but it's reality. Just for context, Robinson has three seasons with over 1000 yards and they came with Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, and Nick Foles at QB, all guys the media loves to make fun of as trash heap QB's. Robinson is on pace for 55 catches for 608 yards. Just saying.
--The new top target in this passing game is actually Darnell Mooney (2-39-0/5) for what that's worth (Mooney 345 yards on the year compared to Robinson's 250). He is Fields's go-to guy. It's not going to work often but there will be an occasional spike game when they manage to connect on a long ball. Good luck guessing which game that is.
--Tom Brady (20-36 for 211 yards, 4 TD/0 INT) is still doing Brady things. He wants to win for sure, but he's clearly trying to rack up as many TD's as possible. He's got 21 already and is on pace for 48. He should get close to that mark and be in the top 3 or so QB scorers.
--With Antonio Brown out it sets up Chris Godwin (8-111-1/11) and Mike Evans (6-76-3/10) for some juicy numbers in his absence. I speculated weeks ago that while all three guys could be successful on the field together, they were all going to be held in the WR1.5-2 range while rotating, but that if one of them went out it would instantly rocket the other two to WR1 status. Well here we have the results, and it looks great for Godwin and Evans.
What Brown's absence didn't do was elevate Tyler Johnson (2-16-0/2) to any kind of meaningful touches. Brady has his guys, and he's not going to change that.
--Another item I talked about recently was my fears for Leonard Fournette (15-81-1, 2-9-0/4) because I thought that Ronald Jones (10-63-0) hadn't been completely vanquished. Coming into this game I thought perhaps Jones was just taking carries late in the game after it was already over, but that wasn't the case. Fournette worked the first two series but Jones was in on the third and getting a significant number of touches. I think we're back to the split they started the season with.
Jones is out of the doghouse temporarily and should get 8-10 carries a game while Fournette is going to take 12-15 and most of the receiving work. It still amounts to solid touch counts for Fournette, but my point was that the people saying he was a sure RB1 were assuming Jones was done for good and I suspected that was incorrect. Turns out it was.
IDP Notes
--Roquan Smith (13 tackles) now has 75 tackles on the year (10.7/g). He's only had less than 10 tackles in one game. He also has 2 sacks and an INT returned for a TD. This guy is arguably the top LB in the game. I know he's not remotely available in IDP leagues, but I had to share those numbers since they are so impressive. I wasn't a huge Smith fan when he came out, but he's really turned into a tackling machine. He should be getting some Defensive Player of the Year talk but likely won't since the Bears are losing a lot.
Snap Counts of Interest
39 = Leonard Fournette
14 = Ronald Jones
61 = Chris Godwin
56 = Mike Evans
49 = Tyler Johnson
40 = Cameron Brate
37 = OJ Howard
51 = Khalil Herbert
11 = Damien Williams
59 = Cole Kmet
26 = Jesse James
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Raiders 33, Eagles 22
Another week, another game where the Eagles get down by a million and then score a bunch of garbage late 2nd-half to make it look respectable…but it wasn’t. The Raiders led this game 30-7 halfway through the 3rd-quarter…and that’s with them blowing other scoring opportunities (including picked off near the end-zone 1st-quarter on a drive).
Nick Sirianni is turning out to be exactly what I pegged him to be in the preseason – and now it’s becoming like a Saturday Night Live skit. He is entering the one-and-done Freddie Kitchens territory with another couple of losses. Of course, the Eagles have become so poorly run…who knows what they will do…and then it really doesn’t matter. Who do I think will be the next Eagles head coach…? https://youtu.be/UQschA2lC_Y
The Eagles are (2-5), very lucky to not be (1-6). They will get beaten by the Lions this week…and then all hell will break loose. This is a 6-8-win team being coached down into a 3-4 win team.
The Raiders look totally lost without Jon Gruden. I mean Gruden built this team for the past few years. He gave such a vision, such leadership…and without that man who bled and sweated with them all summer, every summer, and who spent 25 hours a day at the team facility watching tape – the players have become crestfallen without their rock, their leader, and they cannot be expected to perform their jobs under such circumstances. *checks notes* Oh, no I’m sorry…I mean they’ll win both their first two games without Gruden, look the best they have in the Gruden era in those games, and will finish ahead of the Chiefs in the AFC West (maybe…maybe not).
Remember the plights, the realities of Nick Sirianni and Jon Gruden…and their (no) effect on an NFL professional football team when the media spends a month+ in January 2022 salivating over ‘who the next coach is gonna be’ articles/reports/rumors…and then the garbage that will spew when that ____ guy takes over and talks about culture changing and how disciplined their gonna be.
The team’s fans will eat up with a spoon, as always.
Maybe Bill Gates has a point that 90% of us need to get gone from the earth…especially the football media…and NFL coaching staffs.
The Gruden-less Raiders are now (5-2), on a bye, and projecting to 7-9 wins. The schedule is a bear from ahead. They need Week 9 at NYG to be without all the NYG stars to get that needed win, because if the NYG stars are back…they’ll get got by the G-Men. The Raiders might fall short of .500, or without Gruden they pop to 9-10 wins and a wild card. Week 10 hosting KC is gonna be huge for both teams for the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Well, Miles Sanders (6-30-0, 1-0-0/1) seemed to be headed for a big day until he got his ankle injured and had to leave the game and will probably be out for 1-2 weeks…maybe a 3rd week. So, with that…what’s the FF play in this backfield?
As soon as Sanders went down, the Eagles went with the RB they’ve been ‘pushing’ (in quotes, because it’s been a weak-ass push to say the least) as the #2 all season…rookie Kenneth Gainwell (5-20-0, 4-41-1/8). It all makes sense…Sanders in, get excited about Gainwell. There’s a problem, however…
Gainwell entered…fumbled, dropped passes, and couldn't block worth a crap. Gainwell took the first post-injury series, looked bad…and then Boston Scott (7-24-1, 1-5-0/2) came in…and looked MUCH better.
Scott started taking over, but then Gainwell came back in…and fumbled, giving Las Vegas another score before halftime. Coming out of the 2nd-half, Scott was starting. Eventually, Gainwell came back in and took more touches as the game further got out of hand. And when the furious comeback attempt happened, it was mostly all Gainwell in…but in the hurry up.
I honestly don’t know what the Eagles will do Week 8 vs. DET with their backfield. I have to project it as a split with Gainwell seeing more targets, but anything could happen, I suspect.
I think the regime is split…they want Gainwell to be the guy, because he’s their draft pick. However, Scott is the better NFL player right now…and if the Eagles lose to Detroit, all hell is going to break loose.
On top of that, I suspect Jordan Howard will be elevated – another experienced hand into the mix.
Who should you play for FF purposes? You have to assume Gainwell if forced to choose, but I wouldn’t bet a nickel on it. I have a funny feeling it will be Boston Scott as the best performer but trying to figure out Nick Sirianni is difficult…not for the faint of heart. You have to put yourself in the shoes of – what would an incompetent, ill-equipped for his job person do…and I can’t relate to that…
Miles Sanders is a good buy extremely low off this injury – when he comes back, he’s the guy they’re trying to push. You crave a 10+ carries a week RB…he’ll be one. But only buy as an RB3 value.
-- I think Jalen Hurts’ (18-34 for 236 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) days are numbered. I’m not going to get into all the defending of Hurts, because it doesn’t matter. I’ve been around in this game long enough to know what’s about to happen.
1) The whole football machine is against him… The media hates him, always have…thought he was illegitimate day one – and they write articles weekly all 2021 about what college or pro QBs are best to replace him. Thus, the fans hate him now…he’s easy to blame for the losses. It’s the Eagles management’s fault as much as anything, but Hurts is the perfect scapegoat right now.
2) I am seeing the first pro-Gardner Minshew articles starting to float out to the public…complete with Sirianni chiming in on how much they like him, and that’s why they felt fine trading Joe Flacco. The articles and Sirianni’s words are well crafted…not off the cuff. It’s like an evil government messaging from a movie…or from the United States 2021 – shaped trial balloons being floated, telegraphing true intentions but not giving truth all at once because we’re all too dumb (they think) to handle it.
The Minshew telegraphing is starting.
Can you imagine what will happen if the Eagles lose to the (0-7) Lions this week? There will be fallout and the change could happen as early as Week 9 at home.
If you own Hurts, you’re fairly comfortable starting him every week because he’s been an ace for FF (4pts per pass TD especially), but there is risk that rug will be pulled out from underneath you in the next few weeks.
If Hurts is your #1 QB by a mile…you better get working on a Plan B.
If Hurts is your great #2 QB with an ace #1 QB in stock already…it’s probably time to sell Hurts high while the gettin’s good. They lose to Detroit this week (and that’s an if) – all hell will rain down and speculations and him possibly being traded, etc. Your current top 5 FF QB could vanish in an instant this time next week…and that sucks, but he’s got value today – you might want to cash out.
SuperFlex leagues is probably time to grab Minshew and sit on him for a spell.
-- Josh Jacobs (6-29-1, 3-39-0/3) got hurt and left this game early and Kenyan Drake (14-69-1, 3-10-0/3) came in stronger to pick up the slack and looked better than Jacobs.
Drake has value as the co-back with Jacobs with the new coaching staff, but also is the proper handcuff for if/when Jacobs goes down. I assume Jacobs will be back Week 9, after the Week 8 bye…but we won’t know that fully until next week.
-- Bryan Edwards (3-43-1/4) is pissing me off. The guy looks so good…so like a potential star #1 WR, but his targeting is still very random and he’s #3-4-5-6 in the pecking order. There is no Carr lean or desperate look for him still.
Carr looks for Hunter Renfrow and whomever is at TE, and then Henry Ruggs…and then everything else.
Foster Moreau (6-60-1/6) had better numbers here than Darren Waller (or Bryan Edwards) has the past five games prior.
-- DeVonta Smith (5-61-0/9) looks like a nobody in this offense. He’s the #1 target for Hurts, but it’s not exciting. Maybe things will be better with a switch to Minshew? I think so…it would be good for DeVonta, good for Dallas Goedert (3-70-0/5)…and good for the RB getting easy passes – another reason to invest cheap in Sanders, upon his return.
Snap Counts of Interest:
35 = Gainwell
23 = Scott
12 = Sanders
59 = Bry Edwards
47 = Ruggs
36 = Renfrow
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Patriots 54, Jets 13
I'm not sure what all to say about this one. The Patriots were the more disciplined, solid team and they kicked the crap out of the Jets. Apparently Belichick really hates them because he kept piling on late after the game was more than over.
Don't let the score fool you, the Patriots are not that great a team. They are just better than the Jets. Everyone is better than the Jets. It's not that they aren't trying either. They are. They just suck on both sides of the ball. That spunky young defense that was showing signs early in the year? Gone. The offense has never been good because the offensive line is corrupt without Becton and now Zach Wilson looks like he'll be out a while. I would absolutely take the Texans and Lions and Jaguars over this team right now. That's how terrible they look.
The Patriots are an average team. They are disciplined and play safe, controlled football. They are going to wreck bad teams like this, but they aren't going to be able to hang with playoff caliber squads due to the talent disparity, particularly on offense. I see this team finishing somewhere around the .500 mark and missing the playoffs.
Fantasy Notes
--Well Wilson got knocked out in the late 2nd quarter and looks like he'll be out for a while. The Jets turned to 4th year QB Mike White (20-32 for 202 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) and he wasn't terrible. They immediately traded for Joe Flacco, and there was some speculation that Flacco might start against the Bengals but the Jets announced it would be White.
So what can we expect from White? The closest comparisons I can think of would be Mason Rudolph and Mike Glennon. Big guy, decent but not overpowering arm, wants to attack downfield but can be a bit scattershot with his accuracy. He's the kind of guy that might have been a halfway decent starter 10-15 years ago but in today's game he's just another so-so backup. He's not terrible but definitely not some hidden gem either, and unfortunately his first start is going to come against a feisty Bengals defense. I don't think this is going to end particularly well.
--Even though White wants to go downfield with the ball, he isn't afraid to check it down either which is why both Michael Carter (11-37-0, 8-67-0/9) and Ty Johnson (5-6-0, 6-65-0/7) caught 6+ passes. Both guys are going to struggle getting anything on the ground with this terrible offensive line but will get some decent ppr work. Johnson probably won't be consistent enough to matter, but Carter is the lead now and in the mix as a desperation option at RB.
--The Jets WR's are all completely unusable this year. It's a 3-way split between Davis, Crowder, and Moore. Of the three Davis is getting the most consistent work and the TD opportunities and Moore is the guy they would like to get going. He's also the future slot receiver for Wilson after Crowder moves on. I finally saw a little spark from him on his 19 yard TD run. He took a reverse and looked like he would be tackled in the backfield, then suddenly put his foot in the ground and blew past multiple Patriots defenders. I still don't see a true WR, but his physical gifts are starting to show a little. I would be interested in him as a deep stash in dynasty for next year.
--I know it doesn't matter for this year, but I have to say this: Zach Wilson is really damn good and easily the best rookie QB. I don't care one bit what the stats say. He is dealing with a pathetic offensive line that's allowing him to get instantly pressured every snap, bad WR's that can't separate, and he still looks completely calm as he surveys the field and whips passes with a flick of his wrist. You know who he looks like? Kyler Murray without the long speed. If, and this is a big if, the Jets can fix this offensive line and get him some real receivers in the next year or two, Wilson is 100% going to be a good QB, and he is basically free in dynasty right now. If you don't have him as your 3-4-5th QB you should absolutely go get him at the end of the year.
--As good as Wilson looks, I just cannot say the same thing for Mac Jones (24-36 for 307, 2 TD/0 INT). He's fine, I'm not saying he's a bust. But there's just nothing to get excited for here. He's Jimmy Garoppolo but even safer with the ball. He is the essence of the words “game manager.” And I know everyone said that about Brady his first few years, but do we really think Mac is going to turn into Brady? I don't see it. I don't see the fire, the drive that Brady had even as a young QB. I see a glorified backup, a slightly better Case Keenum. Could be worse...they could have traded up for Justin Fields.
--You can't take too much away from the RB numbers from this game. The Jets have a terrible run defense and the game got out of hand quickly. Damien Harris (14-106-2) is still the lead. JJ Taylor (9-21-2) was his primary backup on the ground and got his two TD's in garbage time. Strangely they aren't using Taylor as a receiving back like I would have expected. It's Brandon Bolden (2-0-0, 6-79-1/7) that's the primary receiving/3rd down back right now. I want to think that he's the new James White, but his disappearance last week was strange. I don't think we can count on anything with this backfield right now. If you desperately need points Bolden is a decent try though.
Rhamondre Stevenson had a big game last week out of nowhere which led to many people proclaiming that he had arrived and was going to be featured more moving forward. Oops. I couldn't find a lot of information on why he was a healthy scratch, but it's apparently going to be Belichick's call every week between him and Taylor for the 3rd spot, whichever guy he thinks practiced better or worked harder.
--There's still no WR you want to be using from NE. Jacobi Meyers (5-44-0/7) is the closest thing in ppr, but he doesn't score TD's. Mac just spreads the ball around too much for any one guy to be dependable. The only thing that's been consistent so far is Hunter Henry (2-23-2/4) in the endzone. He's the Patriots' version of Mo Alie-Cox. Henry took almost all the TE snaps after Jonnu Smith left the game with an injury. If Smith is out then Henry suddenly becomes a nice potential option at TE and should be battling with a million other guys in the 6-15 range at the position.
IDP Notes
--As the Jets defense completely dies two guys stand to benefit for IDP purposes. The two safeties Marcus Maye (12 tackles) and Ashtyn Davis (11 tackles) are going to get a ton of numbers as teams run the ball against a leaky front seven. In Maye's four healthy games this year he's averaged 8.75 tackles per game, and Davis got 11 in his first game as a full-time starter after playing less than 50% of the snaps in weeks 4 and 5. The one concern here would be if Maye is traded before the deadline.
Snap Counts of Interest
60 = Hunter Henry
17 = Jonnu Smith
35 = Damien Harris
21 = Brandon Bolden
20 = JJ Taylor
59 = Jakobi Meyers
43 = Nelson Agholor
41 = Kendrick Bourne
52 = Jamison Crowder
47 = Corey Davis
37 = Elijah Moore
47 = Michael Carter
21 = Ty Johnson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Rams 28, Lions 19
I’m not sure how to ‘call’ this game…
The Lions threw the kitchen sink at the Rams…in fact, they threw the entire kitchen at the Rams but still lost. An opening drive ‘lucky’ catch-and-long-run TD by D’Andre Swift to get the kitchen tossing metaphors started. An onside kick right after, and the Lions recovered it…but their offensive drive off of that stalled, but then they pulled a fake punt to keep it going, ultimately taking a 10-0 lead. The Rams looked shell shocked.
But then the next thing you know, the Rams are leading 17-16 at the half.
Another fake punt conversion…going for it (unsuccessfully) on 4th-downs…the Lions getting back the lead 19-17…and then the next thing you know the Rams are up again 25-19 – but the Lions were driving into the red zone with 6+ minutes left, and then a Jared Goff INT in the end zone killed the chance to take the lead and the Rams put it away to secure the 25-19 victory.
The Lions tried every trick in the book…and failed. I wanna say ‘kudos’ to the Rams for withstanding all that, but they didn’t look that great doing it. Everything was driven by Lions, the pros and cons…and the Rams played their normal game – pretty good offense but not dominating, a sloppy defense that man’s up at just the right time. I’ve not been overly impressed with the Rams all season. They’re good but soft…and they have had the world’s easiest schedule to help them get over to (6-1) so far. We see the Rams finishing with 10-11 wins and a few games back of Arizona for the NFC West.
The poor Lions…they pour their heart & soul into every game and always come up short. They’re (0-7) but aren’t an 0-7 team…they are not the worst team in the NFL. They will win 2-3-4 games before it’s all said and done. I believe they will get that first win Week 8 hosting Philadelphia.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Who won the battle of the QB-who-were-traded-for-each-other?
You have to say Matt Stafford (28-41 for 334 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) but it looks like the same old ‘good’ with flaws Stafford we always see. He looks comfortable…because he’s well protected by one of the top O-Lines, and healthiest O-Lines, in football.
On the other hand, Jared Goff (22-36 for 268 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) always looks frazzled as a Lion…but he’s lost his two best OLs and has Kalif Raymond as his best WR. So, what would we expect Goff to look like? Comfortable is not possible for him.
Stafford looks better, but factor in their surroundings…and I might respect what Goff is fighting through more than the silver spoon year of Stafford.
For FF, I want Stafford…no debate.
-- How about the battle of the two main RBs here? I pose the question that way for a reason…
D’Andre Swift (13-48-0, 8-96-1/10) is ripping up PPR and had a nice/lucky catch-and-run short pass long TD here to start the game…he almost fell down after the catch, he broke an arm tackle, two defenders knocked into each other…and then Swift was off to the races.
Swift looks fine, and you love that Goff has no protection…so that little swing pass out of the backfield to Swift is key to preserve his life, and it’s better than any other play they could run. I’m totally fine with Swift. He looks good-not-great, but his situation for PPR is great-not-good.
However, I’m watching Darrell Henderson (15-45-0, 3-19-0/6) in this game…and it’s the fastest he’s looked to me all year. He looked like a better version of Swift in the game. Henderson was working fine before this, but it looks like someone took a restrictor plate off of him this week because he was really moving…and, yet, he had a mediocre FF game here. Why? The Lions defense was turned up to 10 all game; they played great…as well as they could. The Rams blocking was fine…DHendo looked great/speedy…but credit the Lions run D.
I say all that to then say…you know how I’ve been calling RB breakouts a week before they happen? Like good RBs that haven’t totally popped for FF yet and I think they’re about to go from RB2 to RB1…James Robinson, Leonard Fournette come to mind. Darrell Henderson was already doing better than the those guys I just mentioned leading into this, so me calling this ‘pop’ isn’t as shocking – but I think Hendo is about to go to another level of FF output…with 100+ yard rushing games and he keeps his TD pace elevated and he becomes a stronger RB1.
DH is a good buy low in that his owners respect him, but not fully…they’re suspicious…and just had this did vs. DET happen, and DH has not rushed for 100+ yards this season yet…and Cam Akers rumors of a return started happening (but it’s for the playoffs, maybe). I think all the recent news is pushing DH down a little more than he should be.
He may pop big against the Texans Week 8 because ‘the Texans’, so your buy lower-ish window is short.
McVay is stuck with DH…Sony Michel isn’t on the radar right now. But there is always risk McVay turns on DH for any given reason.
-- Two WRs to point out in this game…
1) I plugged Kalif Raymond (6-115-0/8) 4+ weeks ago, before his first breakout moment…then Kalif had a zero game after a spike output game, and we all bailed on him because of it. Well, last week I re-pushed Kalif again ahead of this game…and he popped for 100+ yards here.
Whether we like it or not, he is the best WR on the team…but more importantly, as I’ve been stressing – he is Goff’s favorite WR throw…and it’s all he’s really got at WR. Raymond may have a down week here or there, because I’m not saying he’s a WR1…he’s just a solid WR2…but most people see him as WR3.5 garbage. He’s making tough catches and has some speed after the catch. He’d be a #4 WR on the Rams, but he’s the Lions’ #1. FF-Respect it.
2) Cooper Kupp (10-156-2/13) is the obvious #1 look for Stafford. No one can stop it, we’ve said this since Week 1 (but not before that, so I missed it initially). But you know who the #2 look for Stafford is…who he is most comfortable with? Van Jefferson (4-43-1/7).
I don’t know if Van will have the 2nd-best FF numbers among the WRs here in 2021, but Jefferson is moving closer and closer to surpassing Robert Woods (6-70-0/6) as the trusted #2 I don’t know that it will fully happen this year, but it’s coming – a very solid WR in a high functioning offense. He’ll be a solid PPR WR2 in the near future.
Jefferson is not overly athletic…he’s just good at catching footballs and getting open.
-- The Rams are struggling on defense…and it’s being hidden by the string of soft opponents they’ve played. They are struggling at linebacker, big time. They just traded away LB Kenny Young, who seemed like a star early on this season…now banished.
It looks like Troy Reeder (8 tackles) is working 1st and 2nd-down, and a host of players are rotating in around that…including more-linebacker-than-corner Jalen Ramsey (6 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT). When Reeder worked as the main ILB last year…he was money for 10+ tackles per game.
You can keep using the Rams-DST on the easy matchups…like Week 8 at HOU. After that it gets a bit dicey on an elevating schedule, a Week 11 bye. Week 8 at HOU and maybe Week 13 at JAX is your last two uses. If this has been your main DST…you better come up with a Plan B ahead. This Rams-DST is nothing like the 2020 version with Brandon Staley.
-- One of the reasons Darrell Henderson had a so-so game was the play of linebacker Jaylen Reeves-Maybin (9 tackles), who is seeing more and more snaps and his IDP numbers are jumping each week as well. Not sure he’s ready to be a full scale IDP starter – but he’s one to watch in deeper IDP leagues. He’s a Dan Campbell kind of ‘heart and hustle’ player.
Don’t think the Lions defense is a pushover for FF purposes either…
They held Baltimore to 19 points (3 of them on a 66-yd FG) Week 3. They held Minnesota to 19 points at MIN Week 5 (and another long, game-ending FG). The Rams scuffled to 28 points here.
The Lions defense plays all-out every week (except for when CIN drubbed them Week 6). They’re going to be trouble for any weak-minded offenses. Philly Week 8 and PIT Week 10 better watch out.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Kupp
63 = Woods
61 = Jefferson
04 = DJax
57 = DHendo
08 = Michel
56 = Raymond
43 = St. Brown (and not one target)
33 = Hodge
32 = Allison
52 = Swift
20 = Jamaal W
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Saints 13, Seahawks 10
So apparently the answer to the age old question of who wins in a game between two terrible QB's is...nobody. This game was exactly painful to watch. Geno Smith and Jameis Winston are two of the most godawful QB's I've ever had the displeasure to watch. With all the interesting options available at that position in the year 2021, how any team could have either of these guys as a starter or backup is beyond me. Suffice it to say that neither team is going to be doing much winning while these guys are at the helm.
I don't think I really need to do a complete recap of all the “action” (if it can be called that) in this game. The Seahawks got a lucky opening TD when DK Metcalf literally stiff-armed his defender to the ground and took the resulting easy catch 84 yards for a TD. After that the Saints muddled around with literally every other play targeted to Alvin Kamara and they finally managed to score just enough to hold on for a win.
I'll talk more about Kamara below, but real quick, this was awful coaching by Pete Carroll. There is just no excuse for letting Kamara be wide open on dump pass after dump pass when the Saints literally have no other viable receiving threats. I'm starting to think Carroll is in some trouble and could get fired this year. Why else would he finally come out this week and openly admit that Russell is a big reason why he's been successful in the NFL and lasted so long as a coach? He's trying to sound humble and suck up to the QB, because Russell has more power than Carroll does and will have a say in who the coach is.
I don't care what the Saints record is, this is not a good team. Beating the Seahawks without Russell Wilson is supposed to be some kind of statement game? Maybe a statement that they are terrible too. The schedule is about to turn much more difficult, and the Saints aren't going to survive it. This team is headed for about 8 wins, maybe less.
We've known the Seahawks were done since Wilson got hurt. He's likely going to be back relatively soon, but they are in too big a hole now and the team around him just isn't' good enough. I don't see how they make the playoffs, not in the NFC West. The Jaguars are currently getting +3.5 against the Seahawks this week. Might be a best bet of the week.
Fantasy Notes
--RC was about to have a conniption as we watched Alvin Kamara (20-51-0, 10-128-1/11) take half the total plays for NO here (31 out of 63 to be exact). Whenever I see a game like this I'm reminded of just how stupid coaches like Bienemy and Reid are. Anyone that makes excuses for why their star player didn't get the ball more is full of crap. It isn't hard. You literally just give it to them every play. Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp...it isn't complicated. There's no reason in the world why Tyreek Hill shouldn't be getting 12 targets every single game. (You see how boring this game was? I turned this recap into complaining about Tyreek...)
The problem for Seattle wasn't Kamara running the ball. He's not a very good interior runner, never has been. The issue was that he would float out of the backfield, catch the ball and turn upfield...and there was no defender within 10 yards of him! How does that happen? You don't know that Kamara is getting every play? You don't know that Jameis can't hit squat except the short dump pass? You're afraid of Adam Trautman and Tre'Quan Smith beating you down the field? It doesn't matter either way. Kamara is a RB1 purely on volume. He is the Saints' offense.
*RC NOTE: To Ross’s point...AK has never been a great interior runner, and thus the trade for Mark Ingram.
--Marquez Callaway (3-32-0/7) looks damn good. I'm not saying that to be funny or cute. He legit looks like a top 15-20 receiver. Trouble is Jameis can't hit the broadside of a barn with a handful of rice and it's dragging Callaway down. The Saints have four weaker pass defenses coming up, so I'm trying to hold Callaway where I can just in case, but it's really hit or miss with him right now.
In dynasty though I think we should be trying to acquire him super cheap. He's one of the most talented under the radar players available right now. He's most likely going to be the #1 WR after the team moves on from Michael Thomas next year. And there's no way Jameis is the starting QB for this team in 2022. I'm not sure he lasts much longer in 2021 before the team pulls the plug for Taysom. And if that happens then Callaway suddenly becomes quite usable in redraft as well. RC has Callaway in his top 10 Dynasty Stash list for a reason. If you can afford it in deep leagues, definitely grab him and hold for next year.
--DK Metcalf (2-96-1/5) got super lucky to get away with an obvious offensive PI here on his 84 yard TD. It saved his fantasy day. After that play though, he wasn't targeted again until much later in the game and only managed one more catch for 12 yards. So long as Geno is the QB he's going to struggle. The good news is Russ should be back sooner rather than later because he's one of the toughest, most hard working players in the NFL. So if you can acquire Metcalf from an antsy owner for cheap it could pay off nicely. Probably too hard to do though because of his one long play here on national tv.
--Everything else in this offense is dead until Russ comes back and even then Lockett will go back to being a sporadic WR2 but that's about it. If Alex Collins (16-35-0) is healthy then he should be a solid player to roll with. He was a bit banged up this week and split snaps with Rashaad Penny, but Collins still dominated the carries. I don't expect that to change, but it's something to monitor.
IDP Notes
--What a performance by Demario Davis (10 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 tfl, 1 pd). He's been one of the most underrated LB's in the league for years. Great to see him getting some recognition finally. He's the heart and soul of this Saints defense.
--Rookie LB Pete Werner (6 tackles) is coming on hot too. He has 29 total tackles the last 3 weeks as his snaps have gone up, and the number was only lower this week because the Seahawks ran so few plays. He's going to be a fixture of this defense for the next several years.
*RC NOTE: Davis with Werner emerging...that’s the reason we should start to fear the Saints run defense up with the Bucs run defense.
Rush Yds per game allowed (low-to-high):
#1 TB (67.4) , #2 NO (79.0)
Yards per carry allowed (low-to-high):
#1 NO (3.3), #3 TB (3.7 ypc)
Rushing TDs allowed (low-to-high):
#4 TB (3), #5 NO (5)
Snap Counts of Interest
68 = Marquez Callaway
41 = Tre'Quan Smith
32 = Kenny Stills
64 = Adam Trautman
26 = Garrett Griffin
22 = Alex Collins
20 = Rashaad Penny
12 = Travis Homer
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Cardinals 31, Texans 5
Pretty much what we all expected…a 20+ point Cardinals win. The end was what we expected, but when Houston got out to a quick 5-0 lead…it was a bit strange. But then Arizona went into lockdown mode and scored the next 31 points to cruise to victory.
Not a ton of breaking news here, since the game went near as expected – but the Texans are changing QBs, might be trading Watson, and Arizona has a short week to face Green Bay. So, a few items to note. And then the late-breaking Mark Ingram trade now to discuss.
Arizona is now (7-0), and if they defeat Davante-less Green Bay this week…then they go to (8-0 and possibly a red carpet rolled out to (12-0) ready to host the Rams Week 14. I don’t think the Cards will go undefeated for 17 games…but if Russell Wilson doesn’t make it back for their Week 11 game…it’s going to be a watch party week-to-week after the Cards Week 12 BYE for the remaining old Miami Dolphins undefeated team members still with us.
Houston is now (1-6)…a season gone awry. With Tyrod back, perhaps they sneak another win or two but that’s about it.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- As I was getting ready to finish this report, news broke on the Mark Ingram trade by Houston to New Orleans. Something that I thought the Saints should have done the moment Tony Jones went down…but, I guess, the Texans still had playoff aspirations, so…
Ingram to the Saints makes sense – they were wearing out Alvin Kamara…he’s not built for that workload. Rare few are. Jameis Winston is terrible, so the Saints need to win via run game/RB-based offense and defense. The old RB-duo from a few years ago will slide back into their familiar roles ahead. A slight bump for Ingram (less touches, better O-Line), a slight tick down (on touch count) for AK…and you have to hope Winston doesn’t forget him for PPR work. Before the big catch party on MNF, AK was averaging just 3.0 catches per game with Winston for 22.6 rec. yards per game.
What happens to the Texans backfield?
Mark Ingram was getting 6-18 carries in games for 3.2 yards per carry (due to the fact they have the worst O-Line in football) and 1 whole TD all season. So, split up like 12 carries a game between Phillip Lindsay (2-8-0/4) and maybe a few for David Johnson (7-25-0, 5-27-0/6).
Lindsay will get the bulk of the carries, I suspect…but ‘who FF-cares’? Lindsay goes from 2-4 carries for nothing per game to 10-15 carries for 50-60 yards and rare TDs. I mean, it’s something but there are backup RBs functioning higher than the Texans #1 RB (for FF, especially PPR) – Pollard, Brandon Bolden when he gets the work, and all the Booker-Collins-Hubbard momentary RBs are in better places than Lindsay.
David Johnson may pick up a few extra carries, but again…who FF-cares? He was already the ‘3rd-down back’ and was doing FF-nothing really. In this Arizona game, with the revenge factor – same old DJnoK…slamming into the middle with no space open, working behind the worst offensive line in the league. Wherever DJ goes, the worst O-Line in the league is going to happen. And if I’m a DJ homer, and it’s really all DJ’s fault…then ‘who FF-cares?’, because the bottom line is the Houston RBs are near worthless in that offense for whatever reason you want to assign.
I’d take Lindsay as the flyer right now because that guy is a grinder and often pops occasional plays in the worst situations. I think Lindsay sees the biggest bump in activity from all this.
…and it wouldn’t surprise me if Johnson was traded to KC or Carolina before the deadline.
Lindsay inherits the most work here, but I really don’t FF-care all that much about any HOU RB. Lindsay, after a DJ trade (if), intrigues me more…a bit…not a lot.
AND THEN…
This may be just opening up Rex Burkhead (0-0-0) for more touches…they love ex-Patriots…
-- Tyrod Taylor (DNP) changes the game a bit in that he doesn’t throw to the RBs as often/well. I’d rather have Davis Mills (23-32 for 135 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) from the PPR aspect for the remaining two RBs…but I don’t FF-care either way, really.
-- Two worrisome Kyler Murray (20-28 for 261 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 6-10-0) items and two positive ones…
But first…notice Kyler had a lower yardage total here in a big win – the Texans pass D has been fairly stingy allowing yards this season. It’s not an auto 300+ for any QB. This pass defense is OK…and you can rather run all over their defense, as is what most opponents do.
Two negatives…
1) Kyler hasn’t thrown for 270+ yards in a game in four straight games.
2) The worst thing…Kyler has run for 1-6-10 yards in games since he tweaked his shoulder three weeks ago. When Kyler is not running for FF-gold, he’s a regular old ‘good’ QB1…not the dominant guy.
20 carries for 17 yards the past three games combined. This follows a similar run decline when he got dinged up late last season.
Two positives…
1) Kyler is on fire as a passer, however. 7 passing TDs the past two games. 17 passing TDs on the season…the 4th most by any QB this season to date…one behind Mahomes, two behind Stafford (Brady leads with 21).
2) Remember when many scouts/analysts said Kyler was too small to be an effective passer in the NFL? He’s currently #1 in the NFL in Completion Percentage at 73.5%.
Kyler is becoming mini-Mahomes, as we discussed/comped way back in his draft year/scouting report on CFM.
-- Chase Edmonds (15-81-0, 1-9-0/3) got those extra carries I was predicting for this specific game script. Which means it’s a good time to explore trading him off as people crave any RB with good touches (see: the frenzy over P Lindsay on waivers post-Ingram trade).
Edmonds is talented, but he is shutout of the short TDs by James Conner and blocked from excessive PPR work because Arizona is rarely losing and in hurry up…and Kyler’s high comp. rate is even more amazing because he’s doing it throwing downfield, not dumping to the backfield guys.
-- DeAndre Hopkins (7-53-1/9) is supposedly questionable this week. If he’s out, who benefits?
A.J. Green (3-66-0/3) has been doing solid Emmanuel Sanders type work…good/experienced hand on a high functioning offense. Lower targets in games for AJG scare you, but while everyone is chasing target counts – the Cardinals WRs don’t need big target numbers because of Kyler’s amazing Comp. Pct.
Christian Kirk (4-50-1/5) has been with AJG…riding the Kyler wave. Hopkins rules and then AJG-Kirk performs well in his wake.
Rondale Moore (2-17-0/3) would be the biggest winner, likely…going from #4 situational WR to the higher snap count #3 WR.
GB rookie ace CB Eric Stokes could take out Green or Kirk (but probably neither, fully, as he doesn’t shadow as much). Stokes will likely rarely be on Moore.
Zach Ertz (3-66-1/5) scored a TD here, but he’s really no different than C.J. Uzomah, etc. Solid enough TE, a little slow afoot, but working on a good offense/with a good+ QB, so solid numbers can happen.
-- I don’t know what got into Texans DL Jonathan Greenard (3 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) but it’s white hot for IDP…
At least one sack in every game he’s played (4) this season. 2.0 sacks in each of his last two games, 6.0 sacks on the season…playing 50%+ of the snaps in games.
-- Not to be outdone, Markus Golden (2 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 FF, 3 QB hits) has started in place of Chandler Jones the past two games and has racked up 4.0 sacks in those two games….6.0 sacks this season. He’s #1 in the NFL in forced fumbles (4).
-- The Arizona-DST is still trucking along. They are catching GB with their best two WRs out…and a problematic O-Line Week 8.
They might get Jimmy G. Week 9. Darnold Week 10. Maybe Geno Week 11.
This defense is so good, you can fairly confidently use vs. GB…and might get a run from here where only Week 12 (bye) and Week 14 (Stafford) are scary situations before Week 17 at Dallas. If so, you may not need to sit on LAC for the next 2-3 weeks waiting for the good pairing situations. It all depends on how fast Russell Wilson returns to alter the schedule for the Arizona-DST.
Snap Counts of Interest:
60 = AJ Green
59 = Hopkins
51 = Kirk
37 = Rondale
49 = Edmonds
21 = Conner
35 = Ertz
21 = Dem Harris
53 = Cooks
35 = Collins
27 = Conley
24 = Amendola
13 = C Moore
30 = D Johnson
21 = Ingram
04 = Burkhead
04 = Lindsay
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Packers, 24, Football Team 10
Washington went toe-to-toe with the Packers here…Green Bay had to scramble a little bit for this win. Because the Washington Football Team is the Washington Football Team, they did their best (and succeeded) to shoot themselves in the foot and hand the Packers the win.
Down 21-7 with 6 minutes left in the 3rd-quarter, Taylor Heinicke scrambled and raced off in the red zone and found a seam and was running to the goal line with an open score (to make the deficit 21-14) and decided to half dive/semi-slide with oncoming defenders, instead of crossing and taking the punishment after – but he fell too soon and his knee touched early, and the score was reversed setting up a 4th & inches at the goal line. Heinicke did a QB sneak, went nowhere, fumbled trying to extend it, reclaimed it…still short…turnover on downs.
Washington stopped Green Bay on the next drive, and then WFT went right down the field again and got into goal-to-go position and couldn’t score…going for it on 4th-down and incomplete turnover on downs. Washington played, arguably, their best game of 2021…should’ve been a lot closer but in the end it was a Packers two-score win.
Washington is going nowhere fast with Taylor Heinicke, but they have no choice. Ryan Fitzpatrick is weeks away (if that) and WFT will be out of the race, so why even make the switch? They should just trade Fitz on Monday in all the QB sloshing around that’s coming up. Ron Rivera loves Heinicke, so he’ll go down with the ship with him.
Rivera is so into ‘grinder’ stories, ‘grinder’ players that he’ll take/play lesser talented players, the ones who ‘really love football’ (per Rivera’s measuring stick). and lose a ton of games with them…but is happy to be working around other ‘grinders’. Rivera is a dead man in Washington, he’s dragging the team down the tubes…but it will probably be after 2023 season before Washington does anything about it. Washington’s ownership and management is in such a negative light, that they’ll just let Rivera fail extra hard so that when they have to make a move it will be obvious. Sorry, if you’re a Football Team fan (God help you…why would you give another penny or second of your time to that nightmare corporation?).
The best thing about Washington football team is the Philadelphia Eagles are even more poorly run, so maybe they won’t always finish in last place in the division the next 1-3 seasons. Washington is (2-5) on their way to 3-4 wins this season.
Green Bay is now (6-1) and unlucky to meet Arizona on TNF at Arizona without Allen Lazard and maybe without Davante Adams this week. Week 8 may kickoff the Green Bay fall from grace, and the subsequent rise of the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North. The Packers don’t appear to be getting David Bakhtiari back any time soon. This O-Line is struggling. They miss Jaire Alexander. I think the Packers are getting ready to fall.
If the Pack loses to Arizona and Minnesota beats Dallas this week, they might open a door to Minnesota. Both have a rough schedule ahead. We see GB losing four of their next 5 and finishing around 10 wins…which will likely win the division but Green Bay not up for any #1 seed/home field in the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- As we all know, Green Bay is heading to Arizona for a huge game…and two of their WRs are headline news…
1) We have to see if Davante Adams (6-76-1/7) can get cleared from COVID by THU, but when I first heard he was in COVID peril I thought…
2) …Allen Lazard (5-60-1/6) FINALLY gets his next chance at playing/starring without Davante there!!! And, of course, Lazard tests positive, and is unvaxxed, so he doesn’t get to clear in time, and he’s out already for TNF.
Lazard has zero luck. I’m going to lower Lazard in our recent Dynasty rankings for his ‘unlucky’ factor for the future. He didn’t get drafted as a rookie, when he should’ve been a top 100 pick. He wasted away for year+ on the practice squad until injury got him a shot to star for Green Bay…and he did on a memorable MNF game…and then immediately was buried again.
Last time Adams was out hurt, Lazard had a monster game as the new #1…but late in that game he tore his core muscle and was out for most of the season and didn’t come back right from there. SO, it’s only fitting this huge opportunity arises…and Lazard gets COVID too.
If Adams announced his retirement from football next week, and Aaron Rodgers said – good, I’ve been wanting to use Lazard as my #1 all along…that very moment Rodgers stopped speaking, Lazard would get hit by a runaway bus while sitting in his living room watching my Tuesday Night Video Q&A replay (that’s how I see it in this daydream scenario…you don’t know if it’s true or not).
Note: This was Lazard’s best game (Wk7) working WITH Adams in 2021…Lazard has been building for a couple weeks now and was reaching Flex option status, and now…not. Not for another week at least.
So, who is the top target for Rodgers if Davante is out, and with Lazard gone?
Before we speculate, please note – Arizona has the best coverage secondary and best defense in football, so whomever it is…they’re likely dead/overmatched.
The first option is Marquez Valdes-Scantling (DNP)…but we don’t even know if he’ll be activated/ready for that game. Plus, MVS sucks…only good as a ‘forgotten in coverage’ deep ball guy hiding in the shadows of Adams getting all the attention. No Adams? Good Luck with MVS as your #1 WR at Arizona. It’s something, but I’m not super-excited…but that’s when he hits on one of his four 50+ yard plays per year.
The second option is Randall Cobb as the BFF of Rodgers, but Cobb is a shell of himself…and, again, the Arizona coverage will consume him. Amon-Ra St. Brown called; he wants Cobb to stop imitating him for FF results.
Perhaps, Bobby Tonyan (4-63-1/5)? Good thought, but oh wait…Arizona is even better/more hardcore shutting down the TE.
Without Adams, I suspect Aaron Rodgers will throw for 200 +/- yards and 1 TD…and a chunk of that going to the RBs, so what’s leftover for the rest of the options? Not much. Have fun guessing who.
-- I think, without Adams, GB has to do a whole RB-based game plan. So…
Nine million targets to Aaron Jones (6-19-0, 5-20-0/5).
But I think there’s a sneaky window for A.J. Dillon (3-6-0, 1-2-0/2) to get a ton of extra touches in this RB-approach.
HOWEVER
…I’d be more excited if I hadn’t rewatched this game and saw Kylin Hill (3-2-0, 0-0-0/1) taking touches IN THE FIRST SERIES. I think I first saw Dillon on the field in the 2nd-half, where he fumbled twice and lost one. No Bueno.
I think Dillon is still a sneaky upside in a big-time game here (not gonna mess around with Kylin/a rookie here), but after watching this game…I’m backing down a lot of the enthusiasm. I’d go so far as to say, from as way back as the preseason – I think Matt LaFleur prefers Hill to Dillon…in that way that coaches get attached to untalented grinders and dismiss the super-talented things they have otherwise because those guys make it look too easy. Dillon fumbling twice last week means the staff is also worried Dillon will give the game away…and coaches HATE fumbles more than losing games.
-- Terry McLaurin (7-122-1/12) caught another prayer TD this week. Heinicke almost got sacked, was stumbling and just threw up for grabs while falling down and Eric Stokes (3 tackles, 1 PD) was all over TML but the underthrown floated allowed McL to adjust and Stokes miss timed knocking it and TD.
I mean, smoke ‘em while you got ‘em. Roll with Terry every week. McLaurin is getting one of those every other week guys – so, just play him every week and hope for the miracle, knowing it’s an every other week type thing…opponent/coverage doesn’t matter.
Speaking of coverage, Eric Stokes is the best rookie cover corner in the NFL, period. Not Patrick Surtain. Not Caleb Farley (please). Not Asante Samuel. Jaycee Horn could be, but Eric Stokes IS.
Four reasons why I bring that up…
1) You know how McLaurin is a really good WR? Stokes ate him for lunch. Stokes is already a shutdown corner.
2) Because it’s the NFL, and coaches are so stupid, Stokes wasn’t travelling with McL. So, in key spots as Wahsington was constantly moving the ball and trying to get back into it…sometimes Stokes was on McLaurin, sometimes on Dax F-ing Milne.
Guess what happened when Stokes wasn’t on McLaurin? I do know this – when Stokes was on McLaurin, Heinicke wasn’t going there…except the falling down miracle Powerball ticket he landed with Stokes glued all over McLaurin.
3) When Jaire Alexander comes back, whenever that is – he and Stokes will form the best CB duo in the NFL. If Green Bay gets back Bakhtiari and Alexander (and those are big Ifs) then they might win the Super Bowl. And when you see the GB-DST on our Dynasty Stash reports – the future CB-duo is why.
The Packers-DST has allowed 15.8 PPG the last four weeks WITHOUT Alexander playing but WITH Stokes playing. Green Bay got smoked one time this year…Week 1 allowing 38 to Jameis -- Kenny King starting, not Stokes. That started to change Week 2, then was fully locked Week 3.
4) There was one, and only one scout who was proclaiming Stokes as the best CB prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft…and as a top 5-10 pick talent. I wonder who that could’ve been… :)
I love being right, the only one, right in the face of the football establishment again and again. How is it even possible for me to be so good at this…why, I never played Pro Football! What do I know!!?!?
Turns out…quite a bit.
I’d like to take credit but it’s really a gift from God. https://youtu.be/tna3B5zqHdk It’s the only thing that makes sense that I could become the greatest football scout on the planet never even thinking about it or working in the game at all until about 10 years ago I started looking at some stuff in basement on the weekends while working my regular job. You never know what hidden talents you might have. Keep grinding. Keep hope alive if you hate your regular life job.
Sorry for the F-bombs, but if this inspires one person it’s worth it…and I would share it with my 13+ year old kid despite the language. We all need to hear it…not listen to it…hear it: https://youtu.be/2fx2aKP7UGQ
Thank you to Eric Stokes for somehow going off on this bunny trail…
-- Antonio Gibson (14-51-0, 2-5-0/2) is becoming Chase Edmonds for FF…10-14 carries for 50 +/- yards and 2 catches a week. FF-useless.
Gibson looks OK, but not 100%. Probably the shin. I thought he looked more spry in prior weeks but looked a little slower here…or I was just seeing things.
PPR points in games this season, starting with Week 1 (rounded): 14, 9, 17, 16, 21, 6, 8. Useful. Fading.
He’s not a buy low or sell-off low. He is what he is…a useful RB you hope gets it together/heals up.
-- Landon Collins (7 tackles, 1 TFL) was moved to linebacker this game, a permanent move. Kameron Curl (6 tackles) does better for IDP when Collins is not back there, FYI.
One more for the road: https://youtu.be/SZEo1KFjTn4
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = A Jones
13 = AJD
05 = Kylin Hill
66 = McLaurin
50 = Humphries
39 = DeAndre Carter
29 = Milne
10 = Dyami
46 = McKissic
30 = Gibson
01 = J Patterson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Titans 27, Chiefs 3
By no means am I suggesting the Chiefs are any good, but this game was a little more on the ‘lucky’ side of a win…in this blowout win by the Titans.
I’m not defending the Chiefs with the typical football analyst’s cry of: ‘Oh, they have Mahomes…you know they’ll be fine’. No, they won’t be fine. Their overrated head coach and terrible O-C combo is starting to catch up to them – taking an ‘A+’ opportunity team and coaching it down to a ‘B+’ student…still better than most but underachieving maximum potential. We’ve seen that a million times throughout NFL recent history…
Sean Payton wins one Super Bowl with Drew Brees a decade+ ago and hasn’t been back since.
Mike McCarthy won just ONE Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers, a decade ago, and Green Bay has not been back since. How do you win just one Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers in his prime?
Pete Carroll…one Super Bowl with Russell Wilson.
Sometimes an NFL team, given enough time, will have a Hall of Fame QB who has that one season where the team avoids major injury, the schedule lands right, key opponents have those injuries, and the ball bounces just right enough to where the team stumbles into the Super Bowl and wins it off the back of the ace QB. When 10+ years go by with that QB performing at a high level, and you can’t get back for another and another title run, when you have losing records in the playoffs other than the Super Bowl run outlier – it’s a coaching issue as much as anything else…in that there is no coaching, just randomness going on around the QB, who has to overcome it.
You really have to respect what Tom Brady and Joe Montana and their coaches did in their respective dynasty eras.
Andy Reid has coached 23 years and has a 14-15 playoff record outside of the 2019 Super Bowl run. I think just about anyone with half a brain could be a head coach for 23 years and stumble into ONE Super Bowl win through some random chance of the universe.
The Chiefs were on top of the world in 2019 (after a furious comeback late to avoid a Super Bowl loss to SF)…got back to the Bowl in 2020, and got destroyed by Tom Brady. And now the team is literally falling apart right in front of our eyes – becoming that post-Super Bowl Packers team of the McCarthy-Rodgers era (outside of the Super Bowl run, McCarthy went 6-8 record in the playoffs otherwise). The Chiefs are becoming the random ‘any given Sunday’ team because they have Mahomes.
I’ll tell you how the horrific Andy Reid decisions are causing the 2021 issue…
1) Trading for Orlando Brown…a big, slow run blocker that the top run game in the NFL (BAL) didn’t want was traded for and installed as the left tackle for a team with the most dynamic passing QB in the NFL. Huh…the Titans only had 4 sacks and 9 QB hits in this game…
2) O-C Eric Bieniemy is a horrific offensive coordinator. No one wants him as their head coach in an era where any idiot from a team that was good last year can get a head coaching job. Everyone knows this is all Mahomes, and nothing to do with Reid-Bieniemy…it’s done in spite of them. I listen to Eric Bieniemy press conferences and marvel and what anyone sees in him.
3) The O-C issue manifests itself in the fact that NFL defenses are just dropping back deep into coverage and daring KC to throw short…and idiot Bieniemy keeps sending everyone medium and deep right into it.
A big reason why Mahomes is under such pressure – no one is open because everyone is headed downfield into a spiderweb. Notice how much you see Mahomes having to move out of the pocket to buy time this year…notice how many yards Mahomes runs for in games now…because everyone on defense is chasing medium and deep and there’s chunks of yards for him to get for free running because all his receivers are downfield, too often covered, as well.
4) Reid-Bieniemy’s idiocy rolls right into watching game after game where Tyreek Hill doesn’t have a catch in the 1st-half…not even a target hardly. Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams and Derrick Henry ALWAYS get the ball…Tyreek goes whole halves of games without a target.
The entire opposing defense drops into deep coverage on the snap, and if anyone had any brain in Kansas City they’d counter that with quick passes to Tyreek behind the line of scrimmage to make the defense come up, but no…they do the defense a favor by sending Tyreek deep right into it and then Mahomes has to scramble due to everyone covered or dumping passes to Williams-Pringle-Hardman occasionally. The defense BEGS Kansas City to dump passes to not-Tyreek and to not throw medium to Kelce, and KC obliges because no one else is open and KC never adjusts until they’re way down and playing against a prevent defense.
Hill has produced 20-251-1 in the 1st-half of games this year, and 32-390-4 in the 2nd-half.
If Eric Bieniemy ever adjusted Andy Reid’s terrible game plan for this specific KC team…I’d fall over watching on a Sunday. He won’t, I’d almost guarantee he won’t…because he’s not going to do something forced by dumb fans complaining. He’s smarter than you.
5) KC’s big answer to help the offense this year…sign Josh Gordon! You have a Super Bowl team, and you don’t add one interesting WR despite the fact you have nothing but CFL guys after Tyreek?
6) You wonder why Matt Nagy is a terrible head coach and terrible offensive mind…straight from the Andy Reid tree.
The worst two coaching trees in football: (1a) Bill Belichick’s, (1b) Andy Reid’s.
Back to this game…
Tennessee jumped right out to a 7-0 lead. On the ensuing drive, KC was moving…but a strip sack by Bud Dupree as cement shoes Orlando Brown never touched him rushing off the edge. Tennessee turns that into a 14-0 lead. Followed by a KC three & out, Tennessee then held to a FG…17-0 Titans. First play for KC after that, a deflection turned diving INT…Titans turn that into a 24-0 lead soon after. KC driving again to try and close the gap before halftime, Mahomes flushed and running for a 1st-down, got hit from behind, fumble…27-0 lead.
The rest of the game, KC ‘won’ 3-0.
Not that KC played well, but as things were happening…KC tried to respond but turnovers started to happen, and the ball bounced the wrong way and they it just got out of hand…KC pressing…then Mahomes kneed in the head and then ‘ball game’.
I’m not taking everything away from Tennessee…they won, they were/are the better team…but when you see KC as a .500 team, not THE BEST TEAM EVER, then this is just a good solid win for the Titans…don’t make too huge a deal about it. The problem trying to take away ‘things’ from this game is, until you adjust your world view that KC is a poorly coached .500 team with a great QB…then you only ever react by talking about ‘What’s wrong with KC?’ all week and everything that follows from it. It’s like people’s Sam Darnold scouting – everything is asked as: What’s the staff and line and everything doing that is causing Darnold not to be great…because we know he is?!? If you start out by realizing Darnold has sucked since USC…then everything that has happened after makes a lot of sense.
Kansas City is now (3-4) and is on their way to 8-9, max 10 wins unless KC adjusts their offense by simply going all-in on an early short game with Tyreek.
Tennessee is now (5-2) and is on their way to 11-12 wins with a very easy schedule ahead. They might go 13+ wins and grab a #1 seed with wins over BUF and KC already.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Patrick Mahomes (20-35 for 206 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT, 6-35-0) will ultimately be fine. Had they not lost fumbles and had a weird ricochet pick in the game…he probably would have flirted with 300 yards passing and had at least 2 TD passes, like his usual ‘bad’ game. If he just finished the game/not injured, he might have had 300+ and a TD in garbage time. But things went against KC on turnovers early, then the injury, all allowing the great run team to just possess the ball (TEN 36/24 time of possession).
I’m a buyer of Mahomes on any radical dip in pricing.
-- Let’s walk through the KC weapons/my notes on them…
1) Byron Pringle (5-73-0/6) is becoming the Chiefs #2 WR by default…and he is the best talent they have after Tyreek at WR.
Over his past 4 games, Pringle has caught 12 passes on 12 targets.
In his last two games: 4.0 rec., 64.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game.
In another week or 3, barring a trade for a WR, it could be Pringle as that bye week WR/Flex where you go – I’ll just cross my fingers with the elite QB’s #2 WR.
2) …and you don’t keep thinking that the bye week Flex/WR hopeful is Mecole Hardman (4-28-0/5). Has any WR floundered in any better situation in the modern era? Another Andy Reid special…and they won’t quit him, but they should.
3) Josh Gordon (0-0-0/1) was the WR target on the forced throw/can’t get open WR with the tipped/ricocheted up target to him that ended up a diving interceptions grab/play that broke the final straw here in the 1st-half meltdown.
Gordon has two targets in three games played, so far, and is playing 9-11-8 for snaps in games so far. SWEET!
4) Darrel Williams (5-20-0, 3-30-0/4) doesn’t strike fear into anyone’s hearts on defense, so the defense begs KC to use him as much as they can. No big usage here because the game got out of hand, but I’m sure they’ll go right back to him heavy as fast as they can.
Marlon Mack showing up here is making more and more sense to me.
5) I’d say Travis Kelce (7-65-0/12) is a buy low, but he really isn’t. Kelce and Waller rarely dip in value because all the other tight end names are not respected (except Kyle Pitts now). You can get Tyreek Hill (6-49-0/9) in a deal when you give a flashy WR name back in that deal. But you try to get Kelce with ___ + Knox or Schultz or Uzomah or even Mark Andrews…and it doesn’t feel right to the Kelce owner. Kelce is one of the toughest players to trade for in FF.
-- Hat’s off to Ryan Tannehill (21-27 for 270 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 2-6-1), he’s turned into one of the lowkey best QBs in the NFL…as long as he has Derrick Henry (29-86-0, 2-16-0/2) to hide behind.
The numbers on Kirk Cousins without Dalvin Cook are a huge drop-off. Ditto Daniel Jones and Saquon. It would be the same for Tanny without Henry.
We often quip about how dumb it is to draft a running back in the NFL because they are all the same. That’s really going too far with the joking around/quip. If you have an elite runner that defenses fear, then you can make your QB a +1 (min.) grade bump with it. The issue is there are only a handful of elite runners at RB. There are a million good ones, but rare few great ones/hype ones everyone fears.
-- Two Titans WR notes…
Julio Jones (2-38-0/4) just does not look like he really matters in this offense. Had a decent start to this season but since then has been hurt and just ‘covered’, a non-factor…and limited in snaps. It might be the injury…or it might be time to face reality. He’s still good…just not ‘Julio’ anymore.
I don’t care if he’s a nobody for FF…I swear I see something in Josh Reynolds (3-23-0/3). But in this passing game, only A.J. Brown matters consistently.
-- Two hot rookie IDPs on display here…
Chiefs LB Nick Bolton (15 tackles, 4 TFLs) had his best game of 2021, but he’s been emerging for weeks – now 9 TFLs in 7 games and not playing 100% of the snaps (more 70-80%).
The upside = Bolton is a tackle machine.
The downside = KC takes him off the field on 3rd-downs/the passing downs, which puts him at some risk of loss of numbers depending on game script – when KC is flying on offense and the opposing defense is in all-pass mode, Bolton may play fewer snaps/have lesser numbers in those games...maybe.
Titans rookie DB Elijah Molden (8 tackles) is such a nice young NFL defender…the better Tyrann Mathieu. He’s started the last two weeks and averaged 8.5 tackles, 0.50 TFLs playing 95% of the snaps. He’ll be a long-time starter for Tennessee ahead.
Snap Counts of Interest:
42 = AJ Brown
30 = J Reynolds
29 = Westbrook
29 = Marcus Johnson
29 = Julio
50 = Henry
10 = McNichols
06 = Darr Evans
52 = Tyreek
49 = Hardman
34 = Pringle
08 = Gordon
46 = Darrel Williams
22 = McKinnon
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Colts 30, 49'ers 18
Tell me how many times we've heard this story this year. One team starts off great, marches right down the field for a score then builds an even larger lead shortly after...and then backs off all the smart things they were doing while they flounder for the next 50 minutes and get beaten.
It's happened so many times I can't even recall them all this year. And it happened to the 49'ers here.
I'm not going to do a heavy recap of all the action here because most of it doesn't matter. We've got bigger fish to fry. Just know that it was an incredibly sloppy game by both sides, but the better, more well-coached team won and won convincingly.
Ok who's ready for a BBQ because I am about to light Kyle Shanahan up.
I was a complete moron to think this jackass was going to do anything this year. I do still think Kyle is a good offensive coordinator, much like I think Vic Fangio is a good defensive coordinator, but that is all either guy is good for. Kyle is an arrogant, egotistical maniac that is obsessed with his own genius and thinks he has to prove the entire world wrong...and he's failing miserably in that quest.
You want evidence? Well let's see, he's let talented players like Dante Pettis and DeForest Buckner (who wrecked him here on the other side of the field much to my delight) walk because they wouldn’t get with his program. He refuses to play hand-selected guys like Trey Sermon and Brandon Aiyuk for the same reason (guess who are the next two names on the chopping block...). He's now 2-4 on the season with his only two wins against the lowly Lions and a lucky win against the not very good Eagles. He has one winning season as head coach of the 49'ers.
In this game, with a virtual monsoon coming down he had his defense just trying to arm tackle the offense while Reich had the Colts trying to punch every other ball loose, and surprise surprise the Colts got a couple of fumbles that helped carry them to a solid lead. Kyle had a great thing going on the opening drive with Elijah Mitchell and the run game and then they just stopped doing that for whatever reason while Garoppolo flailed away trying to throw the ball in a heavy downpour. And my favorite of all, down 12 points with 10 seconds left in the game, Kyle had Garoppolo, his starter and only healthy QB, on the field trying to throw a Hail Mary...and Garoppolo got sacked. How stupid could you possibly be?
Shanahan is on the hot seat and deserves every bit of the heat. But he still thinks he's a misunderstood genius which is why despite all the evidence he's probably going to start Garoppolo over Trey Lance again just to try and make a point. The season is over. The 49'ers are done. They should be pushing Lance, getting him as many reps as they can to get him ready for next year. Instead Shanahan is willing to throw away valuable time preparing for the future on trying to show that he was correct to start Garoppolo over Lance all along...it's unfathomable and 49'ers fans have every right to be pissed off.
Don't look now, but the Colts are 3-4 and have a date with the division leading Titans this week. It's an absolute must win game for them to have a chance at taking down the division. They have been playing better every week and are finally starting to get the team healthy again. Looking over the schedule I don't think they will be able to catch Tennessee without a lot of luck. Their remaining schedule is just much more difficult, and the Titans already conquered the toughest part of theirs by beating the Chiefs and Bills. There's still a chance, but the Colts absolutely have to win this week.
Fantasy Notes
--Ok I might have been mistaken about moving on from Jonathan Taylor (18-107-1, 3-3-0/3) He's been playing lights out, the offensive line is getting healthy...things are going his way for the moment. In his last four games Taylor has 408 yards and 5 TD's. He's the 3rd highest raw scoring RB so far in ppr (although only 9th in ppg). It does seem like the Indy coaches have figured out that he's by far their best RB because his snap counts have been dwarfing Hines lately where they used to be much closer.
I just want to note though that his receiving totals aren't great, that fluky 116 yard game against the Ravens is pushing his average, and he's still not getting a ton of carries. Also the 5 TD's the last few games are helping his numbers, but he probably can't keep up that pace. I'm not saying he's going to bust or anything, but I do think his ceiling is a bit capped for the moment. I just don't see him pushing into the top 5 anytime soon. He's more in the 8-12 range which is fine. That's better than what many people have at the position.
--Believe us yet that Michael Pittman (4-105-1/4) is a stud? He is playing great ball. If you haven't seen his TD catch go check it out. It's the second time this year that he's had to adjust to a very underthrown ball and just outmuscle his defender in the air for it. Still not seeing the volume here to push him into the top 10 WR's, but he's definitely in the WR1.5 range and somehow still undervalued by the public.
--I still don't see how you can trust Mo Alie-Cox (3-25-1/3) with any confidence, but he keeps catching 3 passes and a TD basically every week so go for it I guess. It's about the same work that Hunter Henry is getting.
--Carson Wentz (17-26 for 150 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 4-23-1) has been a sneaky good fantasy QB2 for weeks now. He had a bit of a down game here in a heavy rain. There was a moment in this game I nearly went ballistic listening to Chris Collinsworth talk about Wentz. He said something to the effect of Wentz has been much more careful with the ball and is leading the league in turnover margin...and the next two passes were nearly horrible INT's. Wentz could/should have had 4-5 in this game, but the SF defense couldn't hold on in the slippery conditions. He also fumbled the ball twice, although again the rain contributed. Wentz is working for fantasy right now, just like he did with Philly when they had a good team, but nothing has really changed with Wentz. He's still turnover prone and just not a great QB. He's serviceable. Also...don't ever listen to Collinsworth.
--We've been saying for weeks now to get in on Elijah Mitchell (18-107-1) while he was available. Sermon is completely buried. This is Mitchell's backfield now. He isn't going to crack 100 yards too often because he's just an average athlete, but you can expect a lot of 15 carries for 65-75 yard type games. It's solid if unspectacular work.
*RC asked me to clarify my stance on Mitchell here. I'm aware Mitchell looks very good as an athlete on paper. He put up a stellar 4.38 40-time, a 6.94 3-cone, and a 38” vertical jump among other good measurements. He also did this after reportedly cutting as much as 10 lbs off his frame and has seemingly bulked back up since that time.
When I say he's an average athlete what I mean is that he doesn't stand out on the field the way Jonathan Taylor does in the same game. Taylor is 220 lbs and runs like a deer. Mitchell just doesn't look very explosive comparatively. When I watch him run here he's fine, nothing wrong...he's just no Taylor or peak David Johnson is all I'm saying. He's not elite. He's perfectly capable of performing quite well as the full-time starter.
--Deebo Samuel (7-100-1/11) is still making this work somehow. He's all they have at the position so the volume isn't going anywhere. At some point though teams are going to start doubling him and his numbers are likely to tail off. He's still a WR1-1.5, but I don't see him keeping up this top 5 pace. I agree with RC that you shouldn't be trying to sell him at all costs, but if you can flip him into Davante Adams or Mike Williams you should do it.
--To all the Twitter analysts saying Brandon Aiyuk (1-6-0/1) is a buy-low...you can keep him and OBJ. We here at FFM want no part of these situations.
IDP Notes
--No change for Fred Warner (9 tackles, 2 tfl) and Azeez Al-Shaair (9 tackles, 1 tfl). Both guys just keep getting 9 tackles every single game.
Snap Counts of Interest
62 = Michael Pittman
57 = Zach Pascal
43 = Ashton Dulin
50 = Jack Doyle
43 = Mo Alie-Cox
47 = Jonathan Taylor
19 = Nyheim Hines
37 = Elijah Mitchell
19 = JaMycal Hasty
