R.C. Fischer

FFM

27 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Packers, 24, Football Team 10

Washington went toe-to-toe with the Packers here…Green Bay had to scramble a little bit for this win. Because the Washington Football Team is the Washington Football Team, they did their best (and succeeded) to shoot themselves in the foot and hand the Packers the win.

Down 21-7 with 6 minutes left in the 3rd-quarter, Taylor Heinicke scrambled and raced off in the red zone and found a seam and was running to the goal line with an open score (to make the deficit 21-14) and decided to half dive/semi-slide with oncoming defenders, instead of crossing and taking the punishment after – but he fell too soon and his knee touched early, and the score was reversed setting up a 4th & inches at the goal line. Heinicke did a QB sneak, went nowhere, fumbled trying to extend it, reclaimed it…still short…turnover on downs.

Washington stopped Green Bay on the next drive, and then WFT went right down the field again and got into goal-to-go position and couldn’t score…going for it on 4th-down and incomplete turnover on downs. Washington played, arguably, their best game of 2021…should’ve been a lot closer but in the end it was a Packers two-score win.

Washington is going nowhere fast with Taylor Heinicke, but they have no choice. Ryan Fitzpatrick is weeks away (if that) and WFT will be out of the race, so why even make the switch? They should just trade Fitz on Monday in all the QB sloshing around that’s coming up. Ron Rivera loves Heinicke, so he’ll go down with the ship with him.

Rivera is so into ‘grinder’ stories, ‘grinder’ players that he’ll take/play lesser talented players, the ones who ‘really love football’ (per Rivera’s measuring stick). and lose a ton of games with them…but is happy to be working around other ‘grinders’. Rivera is a dead man in Washington, he’s dragging the team down the tubes…but it will probably be after 2023 season before Washington does anything about it. Washington’s ownership and management is in such a negative light, that they’ll just let Rivera fail extra hard so that when they have to make a move it will be obvious. Sorry, if you’re a Football Team fan (God help you…why would you give another penny or second of your time to that nightmare corporation?).

The best thing about Washington football team is the Philadelphia Eagles are even more poorly run, so maybe they won’t always finish in last place in the division the next 1-3 seasons. Washington is (2-5) on their way to 3-4 wins this season.

Green Bay is now (6-1) and unlucky to meet Arizona on TNF at Arizona without Allen Lazard and maybe without Davante Adams this week. Week 8 may kickoff the Green Bay fall from grace, and the subsequent rise of the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North. The Packers don’t appear to be getting David Bakhtiari back any time soon. This O-Line is struggling. They miss Jaire Alexander. I think the Packers are getting ready to fall.

If the Pack loses to Arizona and Minnesota beats Dallas this week, they might open a door to Minnesota. Both have a rough schedule ahead. We see GB losing four of their next 5 and finishing around 10 wins…which will likely win the division but Green Bay not up for any #1 seed/home field in the playoffs.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- As we all know, Green Bay is heading to Arizona for a huge game…and two of their WRs are headline news…

1) We have to see if Davante Adams (6-76-1/7) can get cleared from COVID by THU, but when I first heard he was in COVID peril I thought…

2) …Allen Lazard (5-60-1/6) FINALLY gets his next chance at playing/starring without Davante there!!! And, of course, Lazard tests positive, and is unvaxxed, so he doesn’t get to clear in time, and he’s out already for TNF.

Lazard has zero luck. I’m going to lower Lazard in our recent Dynasty rankings for his ‘unlucky’ factor for the future. He didn’t get drafted as a rookie, when he should’ve been a top 100 pick. He wasted away for year+ on the practice squad until injury got him a shot to star for Green Bay…and he did on a memorable MNF game…and then immediately was buried again.

Last time Adams was out hurt, Lazard had a monster game as the new #1…but late in that game he tore his core muscle and was out for most of the season and didn’t come back right from there. SO, it’s only fitting this huge opportunity arises…and Lazard gets COVID too.

If Adams announced his retirement from football next week, and Aaron Rodgers said – good, I’ve been wanting to use Lazard as my #1 all along…that very moment Rodgers stopped speaking, Lazard would get hit by a runaway bus while sitting in his living room watching my Tuesday Night Video Q&A replay (that’s how I see it in this daydream scenario…you don’t know if it’s true or not).

Note: This was Lazard’s best game (Wk7) working WITH Adams in 2021…Lazard has been building for a couple weeks now and was reaching Flex option status, and now…not. Not for another week at least.

So, who is the top target for Rodgers if Davante is out, and with Lazard gone?

Before we speculate, please note – Arizona has the best coverage secondary and best defense in football, so whomever it is…they’re likely dead/overmatched.

The first option is Marquez Valdes-Scantling (DNP)…but we don’t even know if he’ll be activated/ready for that game. Plus, MVS sucks…only good as a ‘forgotten in coverage’ deep ball guy hiding in the shadows of Adams getting all the attention. No Adams? Good Luck with MVS as your #1 WR at Arizona. It’s something, but I’m not super-excited…but that’s when he hits on one of his four 50+ yard plays per year.

The second option is Randall Cobb as the BFF of Rodgers, but Cobb is a shell of himself…and, again, the Arizona coverage will consume him. Amon-Ra St. Brown called; he wants Cobb to stop imitating him for FF results.

Perhaps, Bobby Tonyan (4-63-1/5)? Good thought, but oh wait…Arizona is even better/more hardcore shutting down the TE.

Without Adams, I suspect Aaron Rodgers will throw for 200 +/- yards and 1 TD…and a chunk of that going to the RBs, so what’s leftover for the rest of the options? Not much. Have fun guessing who.

 -- I think, without Adams, GB has to do a whole RB-based game plan. So…

Nine million targets to Aaron Jones (6-19-0, 5-20-0/5).

But I think there’s a sneaky window for A.J. Dillon (3-6-0, 1-2-0/2) to get a ton of extra touches in this RB-approach.

HOWEVER

…I’d be more excited if I hadn’t rewatched this game and saw Kylin Hill (3-2-0, 0-0-0/1) taking touches IN THE FIRST SERIES. I think I first saw Dillon on the field in the 2nd-half, where he fumbled twice and lost one. No Bueno.

I think Dillon is still a sneaky upside in a big-time game here (not gonna mess around with Kylin/a rookie here), but after watching this game…I’m backing down a lot of the enthusiasm. I’d go so far as to say, from as way back as the preseason – I think Matt LaFleur prefers Hill to Dillon…in that way that coaches get attached to untalented grinders and dismiss the super-talented things they have otherwise because those guys make it look too easy. Dillon fumbling twice last week means the staff is also worried Dillon will give the game away…and coaches HATE fumbles more than losing games.

 -- Terry McLaurin (7-122-1/12) caught another prayer TD this week. Heinicke almost got sacked, was stumbling and just threw up for grabs while falling down and Eric Stokes (3 tackles, 1 PD) was all over TML but the underthrown floated allowed McL to adjust and Stokes miss timed knocking it and TD.

I mean, smoke ‘em while you got ‘em. Roll with Terry every week. McLaurin is getting one of those every other week guys – so, just play him every week and hope for the miracle, knowing it’s an every other week type thing…opponent/coverage doesn’t matter.

Speaking of coverage, Eric Stokes is the best rookie cover corner in the NFL, period. Not Patrick Surtain. Not Caleb Farley (please). Not Asante Samuel. Jaycee Horn could be, but Eric Stokes IS.

Four reasons why I bring that up…

1) You know how McLaurin is a really good WR? Stokes ate him for lunch. Stokes is already a shutdown corner.

2) Because it’s the NFL, and coaches are so stupid, Stokes wasn’t travelling with McL. So, in key spots as Wahsington was constantly moving the ball and trying to get back into it…sometimes Stokes was on McLaurin, sometimes on Dax F-ing Milne.

Guess what happened when Stokes wasn’t on McLaurin? I do know this – when Stokes was on McLaurin, Heinicke wasn’t going there…except the falling down miracle Powerball ticket he landed with Stokes glued all over McLaurin.

3) When Jaire Alexander comes back, whenever that is – he and Stokes will form the best CB duo in the NFL. If Green Bay gets back Bakhtiari and Alexander (and those are big Ifs) then they might win the Super Bowl. And when you see the GB-DST on our Dynasty Stash reports – the future CB-duo is why.

The Packers-DST has allowed 15.8 PPG the last four weeks WITHOUT Alexander playing but WITH Stokes playing. Green Bay got smoked one time this year…Week 1 allowing 38 to Jameis -- Kenny King starting, not Stokes. That started to change Week 2, then was fully locked Week 3.

4) There was one, and only one scout who was proclaiming Stokes as the best CB prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft…and as a top 5-10 pick talent. I wonder who that could’ve been… :)

I love being right, the only one, right in the face of the football establishment again and again. How is it even possible for me to be so good at this…why, I never played Pro Football! What do I know!!?!?

Turns out…quite a bit.

I’d like to take credit but it’s really a gift from God.  https://youtu.be/tna3B5zqHdk  It’s the only thing that makes sense that I could become the greatest football scout on the planet never even thinking about it or working in the game at all until about 10 years ago I started looking at some stuff in basement on the weekends while working my regular job. You never know what hidden talents you might have. Keep grinding. Keep hope alive if you hate your regular life job.

Sorry for the F-bombs, but if this inspires one person it’s worth it…and I would share it with my 13+ year old kid despite the language. We all need to hear it…not listen to it…hear it: https://youtu.be/2fx2aKP7UGQ

Thank you to Eric Stokes for somehow going off on this bunny trail…

 -- Antonio Gibson (14-51-0, 2-5-0/2) is becoming Chase Edmonds for FF…10-14 carries for 50 +/- yards and 2 catches a week. FF-useless.

Gibson looks OK, but not 100%. Probably the shin. I thought he looked more spry in prior weeks but looked a little slower here…or I was just seeing things.

PPR points in games this season, starting with Week 1 (rounded): 14, 9, 17, 16, 21, 6, 8. Useful. Fading.

He’s not a buy low or sell-off low. He is what he is…a useful RB you hope gets it together/heals up.

 -- Landon Collins (7 tackles, 1 TFL) was moved to linebacker this game, a permanent move. Kameron Curl (6 tackles) does better for IDP when Collins is not back there, FYI.

One more for the road: https://youtu.be/SZEo1KFjTn4

Snap Counts of Interest:

41 = A Jones

13 = AJD

05 = Kylin Hill

66 = McLaurin

50 = Humphries

39 = DeAndre Carter

29 = Milne

10 = Dyami

46 = McKissic

30 = Gibson

01 = J Patterson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

26 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Titans 27, Chiefs 3

By no means am I suggesting the Chiefs are any good, but this game was a little more on the ‘lucky’ side of a win…in this blowout win by the Titans.

I’m not defending the Chiefs with the typical football analyst’s cry of: ‘Oh, they have Mahomes…you know they’ll be fine’. No, they won’t be fine. Their overrated head coach and terrible O-C combo is starting to catch up to them – taking an ‘A+’ opportunity team and coaching it down to a ‘B+’ student…still better than most but underachieving maximum potential. We’ve seen that a million times throughout NFL recent history…

Sean Payton wins one Super Bowl with Drew Brees a decade+ ago and hasn’t been back since.

Mike McCarthy won just ONE Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers, a decade ago, and Green Bay has not been back since. How do you win just one Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers in his prime?

Pete Carroll…one Super Bowl with Russell Wilson.

Sometimes an NFL team, given enough time, will have a Hall of Fame QB who has that one season where the team avoids major injury, the schedule lands right, key opponents have those injuries, and the ball bounces just right enough to where the team stumbles into the Super Bowl and wins it off the back of the ace QB. When 10+ years go by with that QB performing at a high level, and you can’t get back for another and another title run, when you have losing records in the playoffs other than the Super Bowl run outlier  – it’s a coaching issue as much as anything else…in that there is no coaching, just randomness going on around the QB, who has to overcome it.

You really have to respect what Tom Brady and Joe Montana and their coaches did in their respective dynasty eras.

Andy Reid has coached 23 years and has a 14-15 playoff record outside of the 2019 Super Bowl run. I think just about anyone with half a brain could be a head coach for 23 years and stumble into ONE Super Bowl win through some random chance of the universe.

The Chiefs were on top of the world in 2019 (after a furious comeback late to avoid a Super Bowl loss to SF)…got back to the Bowl in 2020, and got destroyed by Tom Brady. And now the team is literally falling apart right in front of our eyes – becoming that post-Super Bowl Packers team of the McCarthy-Rodgers era (outside of the Super Bowl run, McCarthy went 6-8 record in the playoffs otherwise). The Chiefs are becoming the random ‘any given Sunday’ team because they have Mahomes.

I’ll tell you how the horrific Andy Reid decisions are causing the 2021 issue…

1) Trading for Orlando Brown…a big, slow run blocker that the top run game in the NFL (BAL) didn’t want was traded for and installed as the left tackle for a team with the most dynamic passing QB in the NFL. Huh…the Titans only had 4 sacks and 9 QB hits in this game…

2) O-C Eric Bieniemy is a horrific offensive coordinator. No one wants him as their head coach in an era where any idiot from a team that was good last year can get a head coaching job. Everyone knows this is all Mahomes, and nothing to do with Reid-Bieniemy…it’s done in spite of them. I listen to Eric Bieniemy press conferences and marvel and what anyone sees in him.

3) The O-C issue manifests itself in the fact that NFL defenses are just dropping back deep into coverage and daring KC to throw short…and idiot Bieniemy keeps sending everyone medium and deep right into it.

A big reason why Mahomes is under such pressure – no one is open because everyone is headed downfield into a spiderweb. Notice how much you see Mahomes having to move out of the pocket to buy time this year…notice how many yards Mahomes runs for in games now…because everyone on defense is chasing medium and deep and there’s chunks of yards for him to get for free running because all his receivers are downfield, too often covered, as well.

4) Reid-Bieniemy’s idiocy rolls right into watching game after game where Tyreek Hill doesn’t have a catch in the 1st-half…not even a target hardly. Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams and Derrick Henry ALWAYS get the ball…Tyreek goes whole halves of games without a target.

The entire opposing defense drops into deep coverage on the snap, and if anyone had any brain in Kansas City they’d counter that with quick passes to Tyreek behind the line of scrimmage to make the defense come up, but no…they do the defense a favor by sending Tyreek deep right into it and then Mahomes has to scramble due to everyone covered or dumping passes to Williams-Pringle-Hardman occasionally. The defense BEGS Kansas City to dump passes to not-Tyreek and to not throw medium to Kelce, and KC obliges because no one else is open and KC never adjusts until they’re way down and playing against a prevent defense.

Hill has produced 20-251-1 in the 1st-half of games this year, and 32-390-4 in the 2nd-half.

If Eric Bieniemy ever adjusted Andy Reid’s terrible game plan for this specific KC team…I’d fall over watching on a Sunday. He won’t, I’d almost guarantee he won’t…because he’s not going to do something forced by dumb fans complaining. He’s smarter than you.

5) KC’s big answer to help the offense this year…sign Josh Gordon! You have a Super Bowl team, and you don’t add one interesting WR despite the fact you have nothing but CFL guys after Tyreek?

6) You wonder why Matt Nagy is a terrible head coach and terrible offensive mind…straight from the Andy Reid tree.

The worst two coaching trees in football: (1a) Bill Belichick’s, (1b) Andy Reid’s.

Back to this game…

Tennessee jumped right out to a 7-0 lead. On the ensuing drive, KC was moving…but a strip sack by Bud Dupree as cement shoes Orlando Brown never touched him rushing off the edge. Tennessee turns that into a 14-0 lead. Followed by a KC three & out, Tennessee then held to a FG…17-0 Titans. First play for KC after that, a deflection turned diving INT…Titans turn that into a 24-0 lead soon after. KC driving again to try and close the gap before halftime, Mahomes flushed and running for a 1st-down, got hit from behind, fumble…27-0 lead.

The rest of the game, KC ‘won’ 3-0.

Not that KC played well, but as things were happening…KC tried to respond but turnovers started to happen, and the ball bounced the wrong way and they it just got out of hand…KC pressing…then Mahomes kneed in the head and then ‘ball game’.

I’m not taking everything away from Tennessee…they won, they were/are the better team…but when you see KC as a .500 team, not THE BEST TEAM EVER, then this is just a good solid win for the Titans…don’t make too huge a deal about it. The problem trying to take away ‘things’ from this game is, until you adjust your world view that KC is a poorly coached .500 team with a great QB…then you only ever react by talking about ‘What’s wrong with KC?’ all week and everything that follows from it. It’s like people’s Sam Darnold scouting – everything is asked as: What’s the staff and line and everything doing that is causing Darnold not to be great…because we know he is?!? If you start out by realizing Darnold has sucked since USC…then everything that has happened after makes a lot of sense.

Kansas City is now (3-4) and is on their way to 8-9, max 10 wins unless KC adjusts their offense by simply going all-in on an early short game with Tyreek.

Tennessee is now (5-2) and is on their way to 11-12 wins with a very easy schedule ahead. They might go 13+ wins and grab a #1 seed with wins over BUF and KC already.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Patrick Mahomes (20-35 for 206 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT, 6-35-0) will ultimately be fine. Had they not lost fumbles and had a weird ricochet pick in the game…he probably would have flirted with 300 yards passing and had at least 2 TD passes, like his usual ‘bad’ game. If he just finished the game/not injured, he might have had 300+ and a TD in garbage time. But things went against KC on turnovers early, then the injury, all allowing the great run team to just possess the ball (TEN 36/24 time of possession).

I’m a buyer of Mahomes on any radical dip in pricing.

 -- Let’s walk through the KC weapons/my notes on them…

1) Byron Pringle (5-73-0/6) is becoming the Chiefs #2 WR by default…and he is the best talent they have after Tyreek at WR.

Over his past 4 games, Pringle has caught 12 passes on 12 targets.

In his last two games: 4.0 rec., 64.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game.

In another week or 3, barring a trade for a WR, it could be Pringle as that bye week WR/Flex where you go – I’ll just cross my fingers with the elite QB’s #2 WR.

2) …and you don’t keep thinking that the bye week Flex/WR hopeful is Mecole Hardman (4-28-0/5). Has any WR floundered in any better situation in the modern era? Another Andy Reid special…and they won’t quit him, but they should.

3) Josh Gordon (0-0-0/1) was the WR target on the forced throw/can’t get open WR with the tipped/ricocheted up target to him that ended up a diving interceptions grab/play that broke the final straw here in the 1st-half meltdown.

Gordon has two targets in three games played, so far, and is playing 9-11-8 for snaps in games so far. SWEET!

4) Darrel Williams (5-20-0, 3-30-0/4) doesn’t strike fear into anyone’s hearts on defense, so the defense begs KC to use him as much as they can. No big usage here because the game got out of hand, but I’m sure they’ll go right back to him heavy as fast as they can.

Marlon Mack showing up here is making more and more sense to me.

5) I’d say Travis Kelce (7-65-0/12) is a buy low, but he really isn’t. Kelce and Waller rarely dip in value because all the other tight end names are not respected (except Kyle Pitts now). You can get Tyreek Hill (6-49-0/9) in a deal when you give a flashy WR name back in that deal. But you try to get Kelce with ___ + Knox or Schultz or Uzomah or even Mark Andrews…and it doesn’t feel right to the Kelce owner. Kelce is one of the toughest players to trade for in FF.

 -- Hat’s off to Ryan Tannehill (21-27 for 270 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 2-6-1), he’s turned into one of the lowkey best QBs in the NFL…as long as he has Derrick Henry (29-86-0, 2-16-0/2) to hide behind.

The numbers on Kirk Cousins without Dalvin Cook are a huge drop-off. Ditto Daniel Jones and Saquon. It would be the same for Tanny without Henry.

We often quip about how dumb it is to draft a running back in the NFL because they are all the same. That’s really going too far with the joking around/quip. If you have an elite runner that defenses fear, then you can make your QB a +1 (min.) grade bump with it. The issue is there are only a handful of elite runners at RB. There are a million good ones, but rare few great ones/hype ones everyone fears.

 -- Two Titans WR notes…

Julio Jones (2-38-0/4) just does not look like he really matters in this offense. Had a decent start to this season but since then has been hurt and just ‘covered’, a non-factor…and limited in snaps. It might be the injury…or it might be time to face reality. He’s still good…just not ‘Julio’ anymore.

I don’t care if he’s a nobody for FF…I swear I see something in Josh Reynolds (3-23-0/3). But in this passing game, only A.J. Brown matters consistently.

 -- Two hot rookie IDPs on display here…

Chiefs LB Nick Bolton (15 tackles, 4 TFLs) had his best game of 2021, but he’s been emerging for weeks – now 9 TFLs in 7 games and not playing 100% of the snaps (more 70-80%).

The upside = Bolton is a tackle machine.

The downside = KC takes him off the field on 3rd-downs/the passing downs, which puts him at some risk of loss of numbers depending on game script – when KC is flying on offense and the opposing defense is in all-pass mode, Bolton may play fewer snaps/have lesser numbers in those games...maybe.

Titans rookie DB Elijah Molden (8 tackles) is such a nice young NFL defender…the better Tyrann Mathieu. He’s started the last two weeks and averaged 8.5 tackles, 0.50 TFLs playing 95% of the snaps. He’ll be a long-time starter for Tennessee ahead.

Snap Counts of Interest:

42 = AJ Brown

30 = J Reynolds

29 = Westbrook

29 = Marcus Johnson

29 = Julio

50 = Henry

10 = McNichols

06 = Darr Evans

52 = Tyreek

49 = Hardman

34 = Pringle

08 = Gordon

46 = Darrel Williams

22 = McKinnon

Ross Jacobs

FFM

26 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Colts 30, 49'ers 18 

Tell me how many times we've heard this story this year. One team starts off great, marches right down the field for a score then builds an even larger lead shortly after...and then backs off all the smart things they were doing while they flounder for the next 50 minutes and get beaten.

It's happened so many times I can't even recall them all this year. And it happened to the 49'ers here.

I'm not going to do a heavy recap of all the action here because most of it doesn't matter. We've got bigger fish to fry. Just know that it was an incredibly sloppy game by both sides, but the better, more well-coached team won and won convincingly.

Ok who's ready for a BBQ because I am about to light Kyle Shanahan up.

I was a complete moron to think this jackass was going to do anything this year. I do still think Kyle is a good offensive coordinator, much like I think Vic Fangio is a good defensive coordinator, but that is all either guy is good for. Kyle is an arrogant, egotistical maniac that is obsessed with his own genius and thinks he has to prove the entire world wrong...and he's failing miserably in that quest.

You want evidence? Well let's see, he's let talented players like Dante Pettis and DeForest Buckner (who wrecked him here on the other side of the field much to my delight) walk because they wouldn’t get with his program. He refuses to play hand-selected guys like Trey Sermon and Brandon Aiyuk for the same reason (guess who are the next two names on the chopping block...). He's now 2-4 on the season with his only two wins against the lowly Lions and a lucky win against the not very good Eagles. He has one winning season as head coach of the 49'ers.

In this game, with a virtual monsoon coming down he had his defense just trying to arm tackle the offense while Reich had the Colts trying to punch every other ball loose, and surprise surprise the Colts got a couple of fumbles that helped carry them to a solid lead. Kyle had a great thing going on the opening drive with Elijah Mitchell and the run game and then they just stopped doing that for whatever reason while Garoppolo flailed away trying to throw the ball in a heavy downpour. And my favorite of all, down 12 points with 10 seconds left in the game, Kyle had Garoppolo, his starter and only healthy QB, on the field trying to throw a Hail Mary...and Garoppolo got sacked. How stupid could you possibly be?

Shanahan is on the hot seat and deserves every bit of the heat. But he still thinks he's a misunderstood genius which is why despite all the evidence he's probably going to start Garoppolo over Trey Lance again just to try and make a point. The season is over. The 49'ers are done. They should be pushing Lance, getting him as many reps as they can to get him ready for next year. Instead Shanahan is willing to throw away valuable time preparing for the future on trying to show that he was correct to start Garoppolo over Lance all along...it's unfathomable and 49'ers fans have every right to be pissed off.

Don't look now, but the Colts are 3-4 and have a date with the division leading Titans this week. It's an absolute must win game for them to have a chance at taking down the division. They have been playing better every week and are finally starting to get the team healthy again. Looking over the schedule I don't think they will be able to catch Tennessee without a lot of luck. Their remaining schedule is just much more difficult, and the Titans already conquered the toughest part of theirs by beating the Chiefs and Bills. There's still a chance, but the Colts absolutely have to win this week.

Fantasy Notes

--Ok I might have been mistaken about moving on from Jonathan Taylor (18-107-1, 3-3-0/3) He's been playing lights out, the offensive line is getting healthy...things are going his way for the moment. In his last four games Taylor has 408 yards and 5 TD's. He's the 3rd highest raw scoring RB so far in ppr (although only 9th in ppg). It does seem like the Indy coaches have figured out that he's by far their best RB because his snap counts have been dwarfing Hines lately where they used to be much closer.

I just want to note though that his receiving totals aren't great, that fluky 116 yard game against the Ravens is pushing his average, and he's still not getting a ton of carries. Also the 5 TD's the last few games are helping his numbers, but he probably can't keep up that pace. I'm not saying he's going to bust or anything, but I do think his ceiling is a bit capped for the moment. I just don't see him pushing into the top 5 anytime soon. He's more in the 8-12 range which is fine. That's better than what many people have at the position.

--Believe us yet that Michael Pittman (4-105-1/4) is a stud? He is playing great ball. If you haven't seen his TD catch go check it out. It's the second time this year that he's had to adjust to a very underthrown ball and just outmuscle his defender in the air for it. Still not seeing the volume here to push him into the top 10 WR's, but he's definitely in the WR1.5 range and somehow still undervalued by the public.

--I still don't see how you can trust Mo Alie-Cox (3-25-1/3) with any confidence, but he keeps catching 3 passes and a TD basically every week so go for it I guess. It's about the same work that Hunter Henry is getting.

--Carson Wentz (17-26 for 150 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 4-23-1) has been a sneaky good fantasy QB2 for weeks now. He had a bit of a down game here in a heavy rain. There was a moment in this game I nearly went ballistic listening to Chris Collinsworth talk about Wentz. He said something to the effect of Wentz has been much more careful with the ball and is leading the league in turnover margin...and the next two passes were nearly horrible INT's. Wentz could/should have had 4-5 in this game, but the SF defense couldn't hold on in the slippery conditions. He also fumbled the ball twice, although again the rain contributed. Wentz is working for fantasy right now, just like he did with Philly when they had a good team, but nothing has really changed with Wentz. He's still turnover prone and just not a great QB. He's serviceable. Also...don't ever listen to Collinsworth.

--We've been saying for weeks now to get in on Elijah Mitchell (18-107-1) while he was available. Sermon is completely buried. This is Mitchell's backfield now. He isn't going to crack 100 yards too often because he's just an average athlete, but you can expect a lot of 15 carries for 65-75 yard type games. It's solid if unspectacular work.

*RC asked me to clarify my stance on Mitchell here. I'm aware Mitchell looks very good as an athlete on paper. He put up a stellar 4.38 40-time, a 6.94 3-cone, and a 38” vertical jump among other good measurements. He also did this after reportedly cutting as much as 10 lbs off his frame and has seemingly bulked back up since that time.

When I say he's an average athlete what I mean is that he doesn't stand out on the field the way Jonathan Taylor does in the same game. Taylor is 220 lbs and runs like a deer. Mitchell just doesn't look very explosive comparatively. When I watch him run here he's fine, nothing wrong...he's just no Taylor or peak David Johnson is all I'm saying. He's not elite. He's perfectly capable of performing quite well as the full-time starter.

--Deebo Samuel (7-100-1/11) is still making this work somehow. He's all they have at the position so the volume isn't going anywhere. At some point though teams are going to start doubling him and his numbers are likely to tail off. He's still a WR1-1.5, but I don't see him keeping up this top 5 pace. I agree with RC that you shouldn't be trying to sell him at all costs, but if you can flip him into Davante Adams or Mike Williams you should do it.

--To all the Twitter analysts saying Brandon Aiyuk (1-6-0/1) is a buy-low...you can keep him and OBJ. We here at FFM want no part of these situations.

IDP Notes

--No change for Fred Warner (9 tackles, 2 tfl) and Azeez Al-Shaair (9 tackles, 1 tfl). Both guys just keep getting 9 tackles every single game.

Snap Counts of Interest

62 = Michael Pittman

57 = Zach Pascal

43 = Ashton Dulin

50 = Jack Doyle

43 = Mo Alie-Cox

47 = Jonathan Taylor

19 = Nyheim Hines

37 = Elijah Mitchell

19 = JaMycal Hasty

R.C. Fischer

FFM

26 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Giants 25, Panthers 3

For a game probably no one cared about, including fans of both teams, this is my choice for my lead-off game report for Week 7 reporting – the game with the most football and Fantasy intrigue.

From the Carolina perspective, in this game, we have the Sam Darnold benching…and I’ll get into that in the player segment.

From the NY Giants perspective, I have the fact that I want to discuss that this is a secret good-to-great team forming – just hiding in the weeds. A contender for my new favorite team emerging, getting in on the ground floor. I’ll discuss that but first a game overview…

The Panthers took the first drive, went down into FG range and grabbed the early 3-0 lead. For the next 53-minutes, the Giants won the game 25-0…beating a team that had wild card aspirations, beating them at their place, and beating them while missing their own starting left tackle, franchise RB, franchise linebacker, and two franchise WRs, and Sterling Shepard.

It would have been so easy for the Giants to mail this in. Losers of four of their first 5 games. Blown out and banged up in the last two weeks of huge losses to Dallas and the Rams. Missing almost all of their big players, especially on offense…the season is over, fellas, right? Wrong.

You wanna know why it was wrong thinking that the Giants would flop (and I thought CAR was a best bet on an NYG flop this week)? Because the Giants are secretly, at full strength, one of the better teams in football. And, more importantly, they are one of the best coached teams in the league.

Let that settle in for a second. I’ll wait.

D-C Patrick Graham is one of the best defensive coordinators in the league considering his work in his first two years with NYG. This defense is stout/tough…and if it had Blake Martinez, it would be a top 10 unit coming on right now. The front line is really starting to develop – one of the best/deepest front lines/pass rushes developing in the NFL. I thought, and many analysts thought it was Washington with the best young emerging pass rush…but Washington is not even the best pass rush team in the NFC East…and probably not the 2nd-best either (Dallas).

I have never liked, personally, Jason Garrett…with my only experience was him as the HC in Dallas. I thought he was an empty pair of coaching sweatpants, but as I watch the 2021 Giants -- I see one of the savviest, most clever offenses going in the NFL (not radical, just better than most dull/repeating offenses). And I don’t know how much of it is on Garrett, but Daniel Jones has transformed from ‘joke’ to solid ‘C’ grade QB. I thought Dan Dimes was toast…watching all the NYG games live and back again on tape so far this year, I know that is not true. He still has issues, but he’s not a negative thing anymore…that’s better than where he was.

Joe Judge – you have to give him credit for holding this ship together…going TO Carolina as an underdog and missing all his firepower on offense and dealing the Panthers a beatdown. A win here saved the season, for the time being…they go forward to next week where they have hope some of their weapons are back to take on suddenly awful KC.

Don’t forget GM Dave Gettleman…

The Leonard Williams trade is working out fine.

2018 Draft: Took a layup with Saquon (not his fault he’s always hurt), but one should NEVER take a running back in the 1st-round…but Saquon has his place.

2019 Draft: Three 1st-rounders… Dan Jones improving and Dexter Lawrence, solid. DeAndre Baker not so much.

2020 Draft: Andrew Thomas contributing, Matt Peart contributing. Nothing special bit not a total disaster draft.

2021 Draft: One of the best drafts of the year…Azeez Ojulari is showing flashes. Kadarius Toney could be the best WR from this draft…or goes all OBJ and ruins his career with his mind/actions. And they have, who I think is, the best CB from this draft outside of Eric Stokes…Aaron Robinson, who is on IR.

But it’s just not decent/OK/better-than-nothing drafts…the real brilliance is what Gettleman is doing in free agency. He rebuilt the defense with his ace 2020 offseason (Blake Martinez, James Bradberry). Adding Graham Gano was quietly brilliant. Grabbing off waivers and sticking with Dante Pettis is starting to show signs. He outright stole EDGE Quincy Roche from the suddenly comatose personnel department of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Giants were screwed out of the division title by Doug Pederson throwing a game Week 17 last season. If the Giants were mostly healthy now, they’d be like (4-3) and emerging right now…a strong wild card and possible NFC East winner.

This team is being built the right way. Giants fans…you gotta be patient and give the team a ‘pass’ for the moment due to all the crazy injuries. You should be proud and encouraged by what the Giants did here…not slamming them for whatever things you think they should’ve done. There are things to critique but this team is building something, it’s got something trying to hatch out of the proverbial egg. All I know is…this team is on the right track. Dan Jones may hold them back from the pinnacle, but he might not in another year or so…

The Giants are (2-5) and now go to KC this week, not great timing for that. If they lose, the mission would be to beat Las Vegas Week 9 to get to (3-6), get to the bye week and try to have everyone possible healthy for the final kick. It’s likely too far a hole dug, but we don’t know how good the Giants will be if they get Saquon-KG-Toney-Shepard on the field at the time with Andrew Thomas back on the O-Line.

Carolina is doing many of the things the Giants are…building a great pass rush and a solid defense and dealing with an ever-hurt franchise RB. Only the Panthers purposefully went with Sam Darnold, and it’s destroying them…and the Carolina WRs are a shell of what the Giants’ are.

The Panthers are (3-4), on a four-game losing streak…and there’s no way they’ll rise with Darnold at QB, so they are doomed to a losing season and a giant gap at the most important position = QB. I would like to pitch a rumor, to get on record with it first – watch out for Jalen Hurts being traded to Carolina (or Houston) pre-deadline.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let’s talk Sam Darnold (16-25 for 111 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT)…

Sam got benched. The mainstream will try to spin it that it was not a big deal, but it pretty much just put a dagger straight through the heart of his career. The Jets quit him. Now the Panthers have. I’m glad they did, because I was getting sick of hearing 3-hour Sunday discussions on how Darnold just needed a new place to play, a new offense, a new whatever…whatever excuse they can give because the mainstream absolutely believes Sam is great, and therefore his issues have to be everything else.

It’s over.

The problem for Carolina is they have no other option…which calls into question Matt Rhule’s decision-making as a coach/talent evaluator. They went all-in on Teddy, then paid a ton to then quickly give up on him…then they brought in an even worse QB solution, Sam Darnold. And knowing what a problem Sam might be, their backup plan was P.J. Walker (3-14 for 33 yards, 0 TD/0 INT).

You’re getting Sam or P.J. ahead, the rest of the season, if Deshaun refuses a trade to Carolina. And there will be nothing but losses and bad FF output to come.

It’s a shame. Carolina has built a decent team otherwise…not a great team, but pieces are being put into place for a playoff team and future of the NFC South. But it can’t go anywhere with Darnold at the helm. Sam’s career effectively ended this game. I just don’t know when the funeral is officially.

The Panthers may try to trade for Nick Foles, or my super-rumor long shot trade for Jalen Hurts, but they need to see how the Deshaun Watson thing is going to play out first. The Panthers season is effectively over…and Matt Rhule is to blame, because he has to be the one OK-ing/desiring these QBs. He deserves all the heat he’s about to get...a trade for another QB is only going to magnify how bad Rhule’s QB decisions have been so far..

 -- Sam Darnold never has gotten ‘good’ in four seasons. He’s gotten to serviceable and ‘bad’, but never ‘good’. Daniel Jones (23-33 for 203 yards, 1 TD/0 INTs, 8-28-0) has found his way to near-good in year three…you’ll take it. It’s not optimal, but it’s progress. And Jones looks a lot better when Saquon is in the backfield taking a ton of heat to open up the pass game (the same effect Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry have for their QBs). And we don’t know how good Jones will be when he has KG-Toney-Shepard all on the field at the same time. There’s now some hope with Dan Dimes.  

 -- Speaking of those NYG WR weapons…

1) Dante Pettis (5-39-1/5) was one-time thought to be the emerging #1 WR for the 49ers just a few years ago. Then he was cut. Then the Giants gave him a shot in 2020, they stuck with him, and with his first real chance to play – he was the best WR on the field this game.

Sadly for him, and amazing for NYG, Pettis will be a #4-5 WR when all the other NYG WRs get healthy. NYG’s #5 WR is better than all the Detroit and NY Jets WRs on their roster right now.

*Side Note: Pettis…Aiyuk…boy, don’t question that Shanahan genius!

2) Kadarius Toney wasn’t put on IR…that’s good news. Nothing major wrong, it appears, but I am thinking he will miss Week 8…but because it’s suddenly a so-or-die NYG season game vs. KC…maybe Toney pushes to get back on the field.

3) I’m assuming Kenny Golladay is pushing to get back for the KC game too. He was not put on IR either, and Week 8 was the target return game. We’ll see about his practice report his week, but he’s expected to be practicing this week.

I thought Golladay looked great with Jones…with Barkley playing, especially.

Dan Jones could have KG and Toney back this week…it’s looking better and better. And Saquon Barkley has a shot as well.

 -- Sam Darnold’s issues are not being helped by Robby Anderson (3-14-0/9), who is dropping everything…he’s catching 36.1% of his targets so far this season – and most of it his fault.

The WR to watch here…former Matt Rhule/Temple player, Keith Kirkwood (3-16-0/5). He looks like their best WR to me, or at least a legit starter over Robby Anderson – KK has height, hands, and grit. He just cannot stay healthy. Nothing for FF because the QBs are awful, and Kirkwood is buried here.

 -- Royce Freeman (3-18-0, 1-1-0/2) saw a lot more snaps here than usual (29) because Chuba Hubbard (12-28-0, 4-28-0/5) is struggling to run the ball and is a worry to drop passes as well (had one here). 34 snaps for Hubbard and 29 for Freeman breaks with the norm…and it wasn’t all garbage time. Freeman was in early and took chunks of series here and there.

The Panthers desperately need CMC back, but that’s at least two weeks away…and maybe more if the Panthers continue to lose.

 -- We all got excited about the Panthers building an arsenal at cornerback, but that’s not really paying off…

Jaycee Horn is done for the year.

A.J. Bouye looks like he’s nearing ‘the end’

C.J. Henderson played minimal snaps (12)…he may be falling out of favor with the new team.

Stephon Gilmore is nowhere close to returning, apparently.

The best Carolina CB that I see is rookie Keith Taylor (3 tackles)…that wasn’t supposed to be.

The supposedly very good Panthers defense has allowed 36-21-34-25 the past 4 weeks…and the offense is no help to them for field position.

 -- The Giants defense looks way better to me than the Panthers-DST now…

When facing weaker QB-led teams the past 5 weeks, vs. Ryan-Winston-Darnold…they’ve allowed 17-21 and 3 points. In this game, 6.0 sacks and 10 QB hits here for the NYG defense.

Rookie EDGE Azeez Ojulari (5 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3 TFLs, 4 QB hits) is showing sparks…5.5 sacks this season.

The Giants STOLE rookie edge Quincy Roche (3 tackles) after the Steelers cut the 2021 6th-rounder in the preseason…he is already contributing to the DL rotation, one of the better defensive front lines in football.

You can’t use this DST until Week 13 at MIA. Otherwise, they have a bunch of terrible/tough matchups the rest of the way. This is a Dynasty Stash defensive prospect.

Snap Counts of Interest:

44 = Slayton

37 = Ross

35 = Pettis

62 = DJ Moore

61 = Robby A

29 = Kirkwood

20 = Shi Smith

34 = Hubbard

29 = R Freeman

Ross Jacobs

FFM

25 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Browns 17, Broncos 14

Cleveland came out firing this game and drove right down the field for a quick score. For a moment it looked like they would blow the doors off of Denver, but things settled down after that and they started just trying to grind out a win with their small lead. It might have cost Cleveland the game if Vic Fangio wasn't totally inept. Denver didn't try to do anything special with their season on the line and their pathetic attempt at a comeback fell short.

With half the Cleveland team out with injuries, this was the perfect spot for the Broncos to rise up and get a much needed win to right their season. How did Denver respond? With the same boring ass game plan and a grand total of 14 points. Congratulations. You lost to Case Keenum.

If it wasn't already incredibly obvious, Denver is done. Cooked. Finished.

They are absolutely terrible, and it's just a matter of time until Vic Fangio is fired. I know he's a great defensive coordinator, but it's become clear that good coordinators do not automatically make good head coaches. Head coach is much more about management and communication than anything else, and many of these guys just don't have those qualities because they are ex players or grew up in a warped coaching environment drawing X's and O's on flash cards in their spare time. The question is: will the Broncos learn from this experience and instead hire a Matt Rhule or Brandon Staley to replace him?

The one thing Fangio could try to do to save his job is replace Bridgewater with Drew Lock and insert Javonte Williams as a 70-30 lead over Gordon. It might not be enough. Lock might even be a downgrade over Teddy. But it's worth a shot to see. Fangio won't do it though, and that's just another sign that he shouldn't be head coach. Too safe, too risk averse. He'd rather lose doing the same old thing than try something new to potentially win.

The Browns, however, might have saved their season here. At full strength they are one of the best teams in the AFC, but they have to survive a few games on the ropes without all their stars first. This was a huge first step to doing that. They have division rivals Pittsburgh and Cincinnati the next two weeks though and really need to win at least one of those, preferably against the Bengals who suddenly look like the best team in the division.

If Cleveland can tread water until the team is healthier they might have a chance. Of course, the big injury is to Baker Mayfield and if he can't come back from a separated shoulder then I don't see how Cleveland has any shot in the playoffs. Keenum is good enough to get a few wins here and there, but he isn't leading them to the Super Bowl. I haven't heard a time frame on Mayfield yet, but it sounds fairly serious and he's going to be at risk of injuring his shoulder worse every time he plays.

Fantasy Notes

--If you had D'Ernest Johnson (22-146-1, 2-22-0/2) congratulations. You probably won your week because of this one decision alone. There were a lot of fantasy analysts telling people not to play him, that he wasn't very good. RC and I were virtually alone in proclaiming how great DJ is, and we've been saying this for 2 or 3 years now.

I say that not to brag, but to point out an essential truth. Most analysts do not know what they are looking at. They use a couple of generic stats or watch a few highlight tapes and try to pass that off as expertise. The mainstream didn't have any combine data or fantasy trends to tell them that Johnson is a good player. RC and I don't operate like that. We watch these guys very carefully and relay what we see and that goes beyond “he got 100 yards so he's good.” We aren't perfect. Sometimes we miss things. Sometimes we are early on things or a player we really like never gets a real chance (like Johnson until this game). Sometimes a player develops and gets better after previously being much worse (like Josh Allen). In that case we will jump on board as soon as we see evidence of change. But we always have a leg up, an advantage over anyone using just analytics.

Of course, NOW the mainstream is announcing that DJ is a star, that Cleveland should trade Kareem Hunt or other teams should trade for DJ, as if they discovered his greatness here. Shocker, it takes a 146 yard game for most people to figure it out. Not at FFM. You were ready because we already knew well ahead of time that DJ was a Kamara-esque talent.

This is why FFM'ers consistently win every year. It's not because we are the best drafters and perfectly select every top performer. We don't “dominate the draft.” We just research and grind better than anyone else. We work the waiver wire and trade with more savvy than anyone else and we build small, incremental advantages into larger advantages over time. We hit singles and doubles that lead to scores while everyone else is striking out swinging for the fences. It's the consistent approach and it takes time and patience, but we always get there in the end.

Anyways, what was I saying? Oh yes, D'Ernest is a really good player and I'm happy for anyone that won their week because they picked him up. Definitely use him while he's hot though because Chubb will be back soon and take all the work. DJ probably did earn some more playing time after this, but I don't think we can expect him to take Hunt's old role. Coaches typically don't work like that. Either way I would just hang onto him and not try to flip him.

--On the other side of the ball, the genius Broncos managed to get the most talented rookie RB a grand total of 4 carries. There is simply no reason why Javonte Williams (4-20-0, 6-32-0/7) should have so few touches or be the secondary runner in a split with Melvin Gordon (8-18-0, 2-14-1/3). Unfortunately that's the reality we live in at the moment, and I haven't seen any signs of a change yet. It's always possible it could happen in a split second, but I think it's safe to move on from Javonte in redraft if you need the spot to take a stab at something more promising. If you have the luxury of waiting on him though it's a decent play. Few backup RB's are as talented as Javonte.

--Speaking of talented but underutilized players, Courtland Sutton (5-68-0/5) had another so-so day. He's sooooo good but just can't take the next step with Teddy at QB. It's possible Lock could give him a boost but not guaranteed, even if Lock ever gets on the field.

--Kendall Hinton (2-15-0/2) is such a nice little slot receiver but completely unusable for fantasy right now as the 3rd receiver in the rotation and Teddy at QB. He'll go back to the bench when Jerry Jeudy returns.

--Ditto for Noah Fant (5-39-0/7). I don't know for sure there will be a new starting QB in Denver next year (coughRodgerscough), but if they do get a good one this offense is absolutely loaded with studs and could become a top 5 unit awfully fast. Something to think about for dynasty.

--Sooooo...where are all the Odell Beckham (2-23-0/6) truthers now? Half of my twitter feed the last two weeks has been about how OBJ is still a megastar and Baker was holding him back etc etc. Guess that narrative is blown up now. Turns out that RC and I were right all along, that OBJ hasn't been good for multiple years now and that he's been dragging down this offense every time he's on the field because he's a selfish showoff diva that can't catch a football anymore. A smart organization would trade him before the deadline, but Cleveland knows they are still in the playoff hunt, so they won't do it out of misplaced fear that he's still their best WR.

--I have one more bone to pick from this game...one that nearly cost me a win this week. What the %&*#@! happened with Donovan Peoples-Jones?! Not one word is whispered about him being injured until literally 2 seconds after the game starts and I can longer change my lineup AND OBJ was talked about like he would be out all week and at the same time gets announced as a starter. I was forced to start DPJ due to the bye week situation and several other injuries, and of course I thought this was a safe play...apparently not! So to anyone else that started DPJ, you have my condolences. I got burned by that nonsense too.

--Hard to use anything else on Cleveland for fantasy while Keenum is starting. Jarvis Landry (5-37-0/8) is the only thing you can have any confidence in, but he's only usable as a ppr WR4-5 right now. This passing game already wasn't volume heavy with Baker and now it's not efficient with Keenum.

IDP Notes

--Rookie CB Greg Newsome (3 tackles) is already so good. He and Denzel Ward are one of the better CB duos in 2021, but next year they might completely shut down opposing passing games.

Snap Counts of Interest

43 = Odell Beckham

42 = Rashard Higgins

38 = Jarvis Landry

29 = Anthony Schwartz

46 = Austin Hooper

42 = David Njoku

29 = Melvin Gordon

21 = Javonte Williams

47 = Courtland Sutton

47 = Tim Patrick

24 = Kendall Hinton

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 October 2021

Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

23 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Jaguars 24, Dolphins 21 

In a battle of two of the worst teams in the league, the Jaguars took the victory. Congratulations on your moral victory Jacksonville. Tell em what they've won Johnny! It's worse draft position and at least another week of Urban Meyer!

You want to know how bad it's gotten for Jacksonville? Coming off the 2nd longest losing streak in NFL history, the Jaguars, almost to a man, avoided Meyer after this game. Nobody doused him in Gatorade, they didn't shake his hand, hug him, nothing. One guy very quickly slapped Meyer on the back and that was it. There was a ring of empty space around Meyer after this game. You'd have thought we were back to the height of the pandemic and social distancing.

I cannot overstate this enough: I don't see how Meyer survives this year. The players want nothing to do with him, don't want to be seen with him at all. He's got no respect left from anyone other than the owner, Shad Khan. You can't effectively run a team this way.

Make no bones about it, this is a bad team, and they are not about to magically make a turn. They will likely struggle to get a mere 3 or 4 wins on the year, and I, personally, expect that Meyer is fired before/at the end of the year.

*RC NOTE: There are reportedly/rumored a 3rd video...worse than the other two and some possible text exchanges -- which would really kill Urban off soon. 

The Miami side of this game isn't a whole lot better. They are 1-5 with a godawful QB, and the head coach has to be feeling the heat right now. But...we may be hours away from a saving grace. If the Dolphins had started this season 3-3 or at least seemed respectable I highly doubt we would be talking about them possibly trading for Deshaun Watson right now. But because Brian Flores knows he's on the hot seat, he might be willing to mortgage the future and sign a deal with the devil to save his job.

If Watson does indeed get traded then it's a monumental shift for fantasy that will have ripple effects across the league, assuming he gets to play, although I doubt Miami would make the deal without getting approval from the league to start him. If it happens, Waddle, Gesicki, and Fuller instantly get a boost. Watson himself suddenly has a decent supporting cast, and we all saw how well he worked for fantasy with limited resources in Houston.

In addition, the Dolphins suddenly become a lot more dangerous, particularly for their AFC East rivals. Buffalo, especially, could be looking at the difference between the #1 overall seed and the 2nd seed which is huge for them. They need home field advantage all the way through the playoffs.

We will have to see if this all manifests, but I feel like this might finally be the time, and the desperation surrounding the Miami franchise is what will finally get it done.

*RC NOTE: My current prediction on this from conversations and just trying to think it through… 

Watson is traded to Miami and it’s last second of the trade deadline/with the understanding that Miami will not use Watson vs. Houston Week 9 (if they even can). Watson will likely be suspended for 4+ games anyway...but in all this I believe Brian Flores will get fired either right as Watson is eligible to play this year, or definitely gone for next season -- to get a fresh coach in for Watson. 

Fantasy Notes

--So Tua Tagovailoa (33-47 for 329 yards, 2 TD/1 INT, 3-22-0) was back this week and did his usual dink and dunk game fairly effectively. He's really not a terrible QB for fantasy despite his real world flaws. You can spot start him against weaker defenses if absolutely needed.

--Can't really say the same for Trevor Lawrence (25-41 for 319, 1 TD/0 INT, 2-11-0)...yet...I do think his day for fantasy will come, but it might not be in 2021. Lawrence is a sneaky good runner, and once they have a better offense he's going to get 5-6 rushing TD's a year to help juice his stats. I say ‘pass’ this year, but I can almost guarantee he'll be on my short list of cheap, running QB's for 2022 unless his ADP is too high.

--James Robinson (17-73-1, 3-28-0/4) keeps chugging right along as an RB1. He actually looks better this year than he did last year. He's not the most athletic runner I've ever seen, but he's got a bit of that slippery quality that Jordan Howard does where he always seems to find an extra couple of yards. Don't think he'll finish top 5 this year, but I see no reason why he won't finish as an RB1 on this volume.

--As I said in my last Jaguars report, Marvin Jones (7-100-1/10) is definitely the Jacksonville WR to own. He is Lawrence's first look in the passing game and the guy working the juicy intermediate routes.

--Laviska Shenault (6-54-0/10) bounce back a little this week on 10 targets. I don't think that keeps up. He's still being used on too much underneath stuff and doesn't get enough scoring opportunities to make up for it. He's a random WR4-5 option in ppr.

--I really thought Dan Arnold (2-17-0/5) might have a huge game here, but it was a little more muted than I expected. Lawrence was definitely trying to get him the ball though. They just missed a couple of close ones. It will get better as they build more chemistry. For now Arnold is just another TE hopeful trying to get into that weekly top 12 range. I like his chances, but I'm not dying on a hill waiting for a breakout.

RC NOTE: Huge disappointment as Arnold dropped a sure TD pass and dropped another pass later in the game. He really set himself back here. 

--Last week I said Jamal Agnew (5-78-0/6) was an afterthought, and he was. This week he was not an afterthought. He's involved in the offense, and honestly looks like Jacksonville's most dangerous player. He's got a level of burst and speed that nobody else has, and it seems like they've figured that out. Agnew was in the game from the start and even got the first two catches. He's coming on fast. Not sure we can get too excited as Lawrence still isn't great, but this development definitely has my interest peaked. Agnew has a little Cordarrelle Patterson type ability if deployed properly. He's taken a couple of carries on the year, but I really want to see them start giving him 2-3-4 a game. If we see that then it could be game on. Until then he's probably just another WR4-5 like Shenault.

--I talked a good bit about Jaylen Waddle (10-70-2/13) last week and how he was obviously the top look for Tua. Whoever the other WR starting is, whether it's Parker or Hollins or Fuller, they'll get 4-5 catches for 50 yards or so, but the juicy ppr stats are with Waddle. He is working these short routes for Tua quite well, and of course that's all Tua can throw, so it's working.

Waddle is WR27 on the year despite playing several games with Brissett. He's just ahead of Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, and Michael Pittman, and just behind Tyler Lockett, Keenan Allen, and Robert Woods. He's got a juicy matchup with the Falcons this week but will likely get shut completely down the following week against the Bills.

If Watson does wind up in Miami, there's an argument to be made that Will Fuller would be the biggest beneficiary due to their Houston connection, but since Fuller is always hurt and the staff is already so high on Waddle, I suspect it could be Waddle that benefits the most. Right now his speed is going to waste on these short routes. Watson could unlock him as an intermediate and deep threat. It's impossible to say with any certainty how this all shakes out, but I'm looking into acquiring Waddle cheap where possible.

--After Week 1 people were already dropping Mike Gesicki and alleging that he's a terrible receiver, always has been, can't live up to the athleticism...blah blah blah. Have you watched this guy lately? He's developed into one of the better receiving TE's in the league (although that's not quite accurate because he's really just a jumbo WR. All his snaps come from out wide). He doesn't drop passes anymore, literally catches everything thrown his way, and he's using that athleticism to get so wide open even Tua can find him down the field. 

From weeks 2-6 he's gotten 40 targets and turned them into 30 catches for 342 yards and 1 TD (14 ppg), the #5 TE over that time frame. He's up to TE8 on the season and might be even higher if he could get a few more scoring opportunities. If Watson ends up here then Gesicki is going to explode into the top 2-3.

--Durham Smythe (5-59-0/6) actually played more snaps than Gesicki and had a decent game, and it's not the first time this year that he's outsnapped Gesicki. But to that I say...I don't care. Gesicki isn't really a TE anyways. He's a gigantic WR with the TE tag for fantasy. He plays almost exclusively from the slot because he can't block worth a damn. Smythe is the true TE on the roster, but I don't see anything emerging here. He's an ok player, nothing special, and he's way down the list of lead targets in Miami. You can safely pass on him.

--RC was wondering what's going on with Salvon Ahmed and the Miami backfield...nothing, same as every week. It's just a pure Belichikian rotation, nothing more. Gaskin is still the starter and lead guy if you want to describe it that way. Brown and Ahmed rotate in with no discernible pattern. Nobody is grabbing the lead here, and you wouldn't really want them even if they did because the offensive line is terrible and there are so few scoring chances. Please just avoid this mess. It's the worst backfield in the league.

--Mack Hollins (4-61-0/5) was quite involved here and looked pretty good doing it, but I don't think he's suddenly going to become the starter across from Waddle. Parker will be back soon and send him back to the bench.

IDP Notes

--Josh Allen (7 tackles, 1 pd) is coming on fast if anyone is watching. He's been a menace the past few weeks both rushing the passer and getting his hands up to knock down passes. Bet he gets a pick 6 soon on one of those stupid quick throws where they leave the end unblocked.

Snap Counts of Interest

68 = Mack Hollins

65 = Jaylen Waddle

23 = Albert Wilson

58 = Durham Smythe

49 = Mike Gesicki

25 = Malcolm Brown

25 = Myles Gaskin

19 = Salvon Ahmed

57 = Marvin Jones

52 = Laviska Shenault

39 = Jamal Agnew

41 = Dan Arnold

30 = Chris Manhertz

R.C. Fischer

FFM

23 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Bengals 34, Lions 11

Another gutsy ‘for a half’ Lions performance, and then they slowly melt as the opponent takes control to the finish. It was a 7-0 Cincy lead with under a minute before halftime…a back-and-forth affair. A field goal to end the 1st-half made it 10-0 Bengals. Then, Cincinnati scored on the opening drive of the 2nd-half and the floodgates opened.

The Lions play hard. Their defense is energetic. Their offense is fading because it’s lost their best two O-Linemen for the season, but it tries to hang in there – but Goff has no time ever. This Lions team will beat a weaker or mediocre foe at some point, but the Bengals are not weak or mediocre, they’re good…so Detroit gets thumped.

Cincinnati (4-2) has a HUGE game Week 7…at Baltimore (5-1) for 1st-place in the NFC North. The Ravens have run hot and cold all year. The Bengals have been steady warm water every week…damn close to being (6-0) and not far from being (3-3). Their defense is a top 10 NFL unit. Joe Burrow is not his normal assassin self, but he’s really playing smart, sound football and his O-Line is grading as a B/C in our revamped O-Line ratings system…a top 10 unit, better on the run than in pass pro…but a ‘passing grade’ in both areas.

If the Bengals can beat the Ravens…at Baltimore…they are in a dogfight with Baltimore and Cleveland to win that division.

I pray the Lions knockoff the Rams this week, but that won’t likely happen. The Lions chance at a win comes Week 10 at PIT or more likely hosting the Bears on Thanksgiving.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- One of the two most eye-catching things from this game…the Lions head coach is complaining about his WRs, but he can’t be talking about Kalif Raymond (6-37-0/7).

It looked like Raymond was the only WR Jared Goff really trusts…and he was forcing it to Raymond in this game…and Raymond responded by catching everything his way (and a few not-easy catches) save for one uncatchable target.

In a week where many are scraping the bottom of the barrel looking for players due to the heavy bye week…Raymond led the Lions’ WRs in snaps and targets here. Amon-Ra St. Brown had 7 targets too, but many of his were late dump off throws wide open vs. prevent coverage.

The only WR who looked like a real WR here was Raymond. It didn’t look ‘wow’…it was just obvious this is what Goff has to work with.

 -- The other eye-catching thing…rookie Chris Evans (4-18-0, 3-49-1/3) continues to ‘flash’ a few times each week. He just moves like a starting NFL talent. He lined up as a flanker early in this game, the offense was 25-yards away from the end-zone, Evans did a quick move on a covering linebacker and was 5+ yards past him in a blink for Burrow soft toss on the money for a TD.

Evans is starting to be explored as a weapon…not just ‘warm body behind Mixon and Perine’. No major FF uprising coming…just noting he’s really looking good.

 -- I keep watching Ja’Marr Chase (4-97-0/6) to find something I like…to get in the spirit with everyone else in the NFL who claims he’s the greatest WR they’ve ever seen…but I just don’t see it.

He’s very fast…and that’s a good thing. He gets decent targeting…that’s a good thing. He works for FF. But what I see on-field is a guy who is likely to drop the ball working around traffic but makes plays when sprinting deep past coverage. NFL teams should shut him off with a safety under and beg Burrow to throw it to him short, because he’s likely to drop it or get tackled too easily…I think that will start happening more and you’ll see a Chase fade for output.

 -- Tee Higgins (3-4-0/6) looks good…but there’s not the QB-to-#1 WR pitch-and-catch overreliance I’d like to see going on right now with him and Burrow. Kirk Cousins wears out Justin Jefferson. Aaron Rodgers seemingly only throws to Davante Adams anymore…ditto Ben-Diontae, but Tee just seems like the #1 WR who is just another nice option among an ensemble for Burrow…like what’s happened to Amari Cooper this year.

I like Tee Higgins’ work/movement/tape. I will buy low. I’m not beating down the door for it, but I am interested.

 -- Jamaal Williams (4-11-0, 1-0-0/2) is running into a ditch. He gave an 8 catch, 9 target Week 1 head fake game that too many people are holding onto. Since Week 3, Williams has averaged 1.6 catches, 7.8 rec. yards, 0.0 TDs per game as a receiver.

By contrast, Chris Evans, in that same span, as a backup, is averaging 1.8 catches, 22.5 yards, 0.25 TDs per game.

Williams is the ‘runner’ of the Swift-Jamaal duo, but with the Lions O-Line degradation…Williams has been rendered to RB3-4 status as Swift plays/touches most of the time now.

 -- Joe Burrow (19-29 for 271 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) is…

#6t in passing TDs this season (14)

One of 7 QBs at 70%+ Comp. Pct. (70.7%)

#4t in yards per attempt (8.9)

 -- The Bengals-DST is a top 10 functioning/on-field unit, but only #15 in DST PPG scoring. They are FF-viable in any good matchup…like Week 8 at NYJ. That one spot (Wk8) is about their best usage for the rest of the season. Either move on now or hold for Week 8…then move on.

 -- Lions CB Amani Oruwariye (2 tackles, 1 INT) has an INT in three of his last 4 games. He’s play tough, aggressive but not so effective at DB for Detroit…but the Lions have no other real options if they wanted to replace him.

 -- Lions DE/LB Austin Bryant (2 tackles, 1 sack) has a TFL in three of his last 4 games. Not playing enough snaps to take seriously yet, but just noting.

Snap Counts of Interest:

56 = Raymond

52 = Hodge

49 = St. Brown

13 = Allison

49 = Swift

19 = Jamaal W

57 = Chase

45 = Boyd

41 = Higgins

45 = Mixon

16 = Evans

R.C. Fischer

FFM

22 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Packers 24, Bears 14

I don’t think anyone is shocked by this outcome…the Packers win by more than a score.

What struck me in this was the general malaise, the drabness Green Bay is playing with/winning by…not just here but the last few weeks. It may be the competition is dull or it might be something slightly off with the Packers, but this is a (5-1) team that muddled by Chicago…should’ve lost to Cincinnati the week prior…lucky they didn’t lose to San Francisco. In recent weeks, they’ve beaten bad Chicago and Pittsburgh, but didn’t really put them away…they let the weak opponent hang around. I dunno…something seems off/not like the Packers you expect. A vulnerable Packers team.

They have a VERY tough schedule ahead. We see GB finishing (10-7) but 11-12 wins are not out of consideration. They’re down 2-3 key O-Linemen every game so far but if they get them all back in the 2nd-half of the season – maybe they spike up. Right now, I see a team that is good but not Dallas or Arizona good…a team that could get overtaken by Minnesota if they’re not careful.

The Bears could’ve really made a statement with a win here, but they lost as expected. They just don’t have a chance to overperform because Justin Fields is not ready for this yet. Maybe someday…maybe in a few games…but not now. He’s a drag on the offense today. Their (3-3) record is about what it should be. Like most of the NFC North, the schedule ahead is brutal – we see the Bears finishing around 7 wins.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The Fantasy lead story from this game, the only real fresh info…Khalil Herbert (19-97-1, 2-15-0/3) showed, once again, that the 2nd and 3rd-string RBs from teams are as-good, better-than the starters. So, when these injuries hit – D’Ernest Johnson and Khalil Herbert and 50+ other guys could walk right in and throw down 100+ yard games and look like a stud.

Why NFL teams, outside of Tennessee, continue to insist on wasting payroll on ‘name’ RBs, or high draft picks (like idiotic Pittsburgh) – I have no idea, but NFL teams have been run poorly for decades…no reason for it to change as it only gets more incestuous/nepotistic and media-driven as we go. Anyway…

Khalil Herbert is really solid/good, and probably works a split with Damien Williams upon his return from COVID because Williams would have had the same game as Herbert just did…we just think it’s better by Herbert, because he’s a magical unicorn rookie and you-don’t-know that he isn’t the next Gale Sayers.

The Gale Sayers comps will end when the Buccaneers wreck the Bears run game Week 7, but it’s fun for Bears fans right now.

 -- Justin Fields (16-27 for 174 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 6-43-0), at his best, is better than Mac Jones in the NFL. If there are 60 plays in an NFL game (let’s say), the best/top 5 plays comparison of the two…Fields wins hands down. Fields looks better, moves better, is more dynamic. The problem is the other 55 boring plays where Mac Jones is doing proper game management and matriculating the offense slowly/steadily…where Fields is missing on throws and scrambling into sacks and not matriculating the offense enough.

The Patriots are 12th best in 3rd-down conversions. The Bears are #28.

Fields can look majestic on plays…so smooth/fast when running on the loose. When he has time and open receivers, he fires bullets. Fans and scouts tend to remember those few wow plays, but most football games are not ‘wow’ plays – they’re executing regular plays competently, successfully, consistently.

Aaron Rodgers looks WAY better, at his best…aesthetically, than Tom Brady…but Tom Brady will go down as the FAR superior historical QB. Fields is not Aaron Rodgers, but I think we’re all being tempted by our eyes on a few plays here…but most of Fields plays are useless. Much better on the move than in the pocket…and it’s hard to always have a QB on the move/rolling out, defenses can plan for that. And Fields is athletic but not as much/dynamic as Lamar Jackson or Trey Lance…Fields is a lesser Jalen Hurts, with a better pure arm, at best.

But fans and scouts remember the rare athletic/good plays of Fields, so when he only throws for 150 yards a game and no TDs…it will be blamed not-on-Fields, but something else has to take the blame – and that’s the coaching staff. Matt Nagy is TERRIBLE as an offensive mind and QB manager, but this is not his fault…but it’s going to be.

 -- Because Fields is so challenged throwing the ball (yards passing in games as a starter: 68, 209, 111, 174), you can’t trust the WRs (or TEs) for FF purposes.

The only thing I know about this weak Bears passing game – Darnell Mooney (5-45-1/8) is the new #1 WR with Justin Fields. It’s not even debatable.

Since Fields became starter:

3.3 rec. (5.3 targets), 43.8 yds, 0.0 TDs per game = Allen Robinson

3.5 rec. (6.0 targets), 53.5 yds, 0.3 TDs per game = Mooney

Neither that spectacular for FF.

Neither a buy low candidate.

 -- Aaron Rodgers (17-23 for 195 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 7-19-1) still has the quick trigger arm, but his 2021 self doesn’t look like the 2020 MVP guy. Rodgers is basically looking for Davante Adams (4-89-0/5) most plays and then randomly everyone else.

…and the Davante Adams part isn’t firing on all cylinders like 2020 either. Not that he’s bad, but 18 TDs in 14 games last season…2 TDs so far this season. However, if you can invest in a falling/cheaper Davante Adams…using a hype WR of the moment (Deebo, etc.) plus another item to leverage into a paper hand holding owner, you do it…you go for the gold. Davante is still a gold standard WR.

The FF gold standard WRs (as of now):

Davante Adams

Tyreek Hill

Cooper Kupp

-----------------

Diontae, Jefferson, and Diggs on the outside looking in…trying to get in.

 -- Allen Lazard (3-27-1/5) looks so good…got a TD here, nearly had a 2nd TD…but you can’t really trust him for FF.

6 games played this year, no games over 50 yards…all games 5 or fewer targets, four games 3 or fewer targets, no games over 45 yards receiving.

Lazard should already be a star. The fact that he or Robert Tonyan have been left for FF-dead by Aaron Rodgers…it worries me on just how good Rodgers is for FF things anymore.

The schedule is not easy ahead either.

 -- The Packers-DST has held three of it’s last 5 opponents to 17 points or fewer. It’s a decent defense hanging in without their ace CB (Jaire). If they get Jaire Alexander back (a big IF), then this is a decent DST for when they have favorable matchups…only thing is they just have one good matchup from Week 8 on (Week 14 v. CHI).

 -- The Bears-DST has been running as a top 5-10 scoring FF DST, but they don’t look like a top 5-10 NFL defense. They aren’t bad, but they aren’t great. Like most NFC North teams, the schedule is going to clip their wings.

Snap Counts of Interest:

57 = Mooney

56 = ARob

29 = Goodwin

54 = Herbert

03 = Pierce

50 = Lazard

50 = Adams

23 = Cobb

35 = A Jones

25 = Dillon

Ross Jacobs

FFM

22 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Colts 31, Texans 3 

This isn't the first time I've said this, but the Texans really didn't play all that badly here despite getting blown out. They are a bad team but not like a helpless bad team. They are still fighting, giving good effort, trying to win...they just aren't talented enough.

I'm not letting any secrets out of the bag when I say Houston isn't going to win many games this year. 3-4 is probably the best they can hope for. And while I can't say I like this front office from what I've seen so far, there might be some hope on the horizon if they can get a trade done to send Deshaun Watson somewhere this week.

They have to trade him. There's no going back at this point. Too much damage has been done. But by trading him they get out from under any possible legal troubles AND they get a ton of draft capital to try and rebuild this team over the next 2-3 years. Of course they are just as likely to blow all those picks...just look at Miami (who coincidentally are the ones most likely to trade for Watson...go figure...)

The Colts are now 2-4 and better than their record suggests. The schedule hasn't been kind so far, and they've been battling injuries for weeks. As they start to get players back though you see the team is improving. If they can beat SF this week and then beat the Titans on Halloween they could be right back in the mix with Tennessee for the AFC South title. Lose and they are likely done on the spot. The remaining schedule is filled with mostly weaker teams but they do still have dates with the Bucs, Bills, and Cardinals which are all likely losses, so they have to make every other game count.

Fantasy Notes

--Jonathan Taylor (14-145-2, 1-13-0/2) had a monster game, but that's what weak opponents will do for you. He does still have a lot of nice matchups going forward, but I don't like the workload myself and think he's probably going to slightly underwhelm this year on the whole. I'm seeing a RB1.5 with some hopes of maybe getting into the 10-12 range, which is decent work, but personally I would try and flip him off this huge game into something more solid, maybe Darrell Henderson or something similar. RC might disagree. It's a close call, and I couldn't blame anyone that wanted to hold and see how things went. Taylor is still one of the most talented RB's in the league.

*RC NOTE: RC disagrees. 

RC says...Jon Taylor is a hold for two reasons: (1) He’s one of the five most talented backs in the game (but the touch count pressure does suck), and (2) If/when the Colts O-Line gets all back together again...it’s how Indy wins...heavier Jon Taylor. 

RC likes referring to RC in the third person for no reason. 

RC is not saying DHendo cant out-do JT for FF from here on in 2021, it’s a legit thought (because of schedule, offense, touch counts), but RC takes Taylor as my choice to ride the rest of the road with. 

--I've been a buyer of Michael Pittman (2-35-0/3) for weeks now, and I'm still interested in acquiring him cheaply, but this game did spook me just a little, not because of the lower volume but because Wentz seemed to be looking for TY Hilton (4-80-0/4) just as often as Pittman despite Hilton being on the field about half as often. Hilton looked fine but nowhere near the player he was just a few years ago. Pittman should be the #1 guy by a mile, but I'm not sure Wentz knows that yet. Let's see what happens with another week.

--Mo Alie-Cox (1-28-1-3) still isn't usable for fantasy no matter how many TD's he catches. His high for the year is still just 3 catches in a game. He's just a big body that Wentz can look for in the redzone.

--Down week for Carson Wentz (11-20 for 223 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) in the stats department, but this was a weird game for the Colts on offense. They didn't have to do much and just played safely until they found a couple of big play opportunities deep. Don't look now but Wentz only has 1 INT on the season and is taking much better care of the ball. He's slowly settling into a nice game manager role where he realizes he doesn't have to make a ton of plays for the team to win and can let Pittman and Taylor do that for him. It's early but it certainly seems like Indy and Frank Reich have had a positive influence on Wentz.

--Don't look now but Brandin Cooks (9-89-0/13) is starting to cook (sorry) again. His targets were down for a few weeks as Davis Mills was getting adjusted to the offense, but he was back up again this week. Now it doesn't matter if Tyrod Taylor comes back or not because Mills is getting more comfortable by the week. Cooks is getting similar or even slightly better work than Diontae Johnson at this point, so there's no reason not to be jumping on Cooks.

In ppr Cooks is 17th on the season with 40 catches, 57 targets, 481 yards, and 1 TD.

DJ is 20th 34 catches, 50 targets, 376 yards, and 3 TD's.

--Rookie Nico Collins (4-44-0/6) was back this week and right back into the starting lineup. He's clearly a big part of Houston's future plans at the position. Still don't see any “wow” from him, but he's barely played at this point and is surrounded by a bad team. You can't use him for redraft right now, but in dynasty he's essentially free and a great speculative add at the bottom of deep rosters.

--RC has been on David Johnson (2-7-0, 1-14-0/2) as a possible cheap ppr option for those dying at RB, and while I was immediately underwhelmed with his box score, it doesn't quite tell the whole story. They were definitely trying to get him the ball more in the passing game than what shows up here. It's just that Mills was under so much pressure that some of his passes aimed at Johnson were off the mark so badly that they don't even show up as targets. I'd say it was closer to 5-6 targets.

He's still primarily a 3rd down back, but he's on the field a good amount and there will be some ok weeks where he catches 4 or 5 passes and maybe a TD puts him into usable territory. It's a thin line and very hard to predict, but he's definitely worth more than the absolute zero most people value him at.

*RC NOTE: IRC loves the DJ mad v. Arizona angle this week, even if it’s just my own bias/hope/anger...but I am seeing articles where DJ is talking about it...it’s definitely ‘a thing’ for a team that has no thing, so why not let DJ have his shot?

If it doesn’t work out, the new DJ in my life might be D’Ernest Johnson... 

--For now the main carry RB is still Mark Ingram (18-73-0) for some ungodly reason. I have no idea what the Texans are thinking here as Ingram is easily the worst of the three runners. Ingram is an afterthought in redraft, but in 4 of his 6 games this year he's taken 14+ carries (although two of those went for only 41 yards). Despite the volume his ypc average is terrible and he's not getting any catches or scores to supplement it. He's yet another RB3 although one with a chance of climbing into the RB2 range if circumstances change just a little.

--I've been saying it every week since the Bills game...Davis Mills (29-43 for 243 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) is playing decent football, especially given the circumstances. He doesn't have many weapons to work with or a functional offensive line and yet he's hanging in the pocket with toughness and trying to deliver the ball. I've gained a ton of respect for him since the disaster that was his preseason. Not sure what changed, but he looks like a passable NFL QB right now. There's an argument to be made that he's been the best rookie QB so far, damn the stats. Maybe, just maybe, the Texans have a guy they can do something with during this rebuild. Probably not but there is hope.

IDP Notes

--Bobby Okereke (14 tackles) had a massive day, but it's not as big an outlier as you might think. His last four games his tackles totals are 8, 8, 9, and 14. Solid work.

‍

Snap Counts of Interest

68 = Brandin Cooks

49 = Chris Moore

43 = Nico Collins

32 = Chris Conley

33 = Mark Ingram

32 = David Johnson

46 = Michael Pittman

41 = Zach Pascal

24 = TY Hilton

31 = Jonathan Taylor

11 = Nyheim Hines

31 = Jack Doyle

24 = Mo Alie-Cox