Ross Jacobs

FFM

13 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Bills 38, Chiefs 20 

Well, the secret is out. Those of us here at FFM have known for a while that all was not well with the Chiefs and that their problems would catch up to them eventually. We also knew ahead of the crowd that the Bills were a team on the rise, the better, tougher, deeper Chiefs. Now the media and casual fans know too.

I'm going to start with the Bills because I don't like how the media is framing this as a Chiefs letdown or something is wrong with the Chiefs. They do have their problems, but this is the same team as last year, the same team as the year before that. They are a good team. But this wasn't them blowing the game or playing worse or any such nonsense. This was the Buffalo Bills going into hostile Kansas City and kicking the ever living shit out of them.

This is a Bills team that isn't afraid or intimidated by the Chiefs. This is a Bills team that is the deepest, most complete, most well-balanced, most well-coached, most disciplined team in the league. And they just destroyed one of their next closest challengers on the road. This isn't about the Chiefs falling down. This is about the Bills rising up.

I don't have enough good things to say about Buffalo. They are incredible and so fun to watch on both sides of the ball. They now lead the league in offensive ppg at 34.4 and they also lead the league in defensive ppg at 12.8. They are outscoring their opponents by 21.6 points per game on average. That is bonkers. And when you look at their schedule you realize they only have one more game against a team anywhere close to their level, and that's the defending champs in December. It's entirely possible that they won't lose another game all year. They are that good.

Ok, let's talk about the Chiefs. We've already discussed this quite a bit the last few weeks and even going back to last year. The Chiefs have one of the great advantages in football. They have a cheat code in Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is not the problem. Anyone that says Mahomes hasn't had the best year, or Mahomes doesn't look right, or anything like that has no idea what they are talking about.

The problem is that this Chiefs team has been getting their asses bailed out by Mahomes for years now. They constantly make mistakes, run stupid plays, let the opponent score on them over and over, and 9 times out of 10 Mahomes is able to save them at the end of the game with some miracle because he is the best player in the league. But one player can only carry a team so long. Look at Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. They win 10 or 11 games every single year, but it's not because of the defense, or the run game, or the coaches. It's just Russell is amazing.

You want more examples? What happened to Indianapolis the year Manning got hurt? Bottom of the league. What happened to the Patriots when Brady left? Collapsed from a perennial 13 game winner to average. What's happening to the Saints without Brees? Same thing.

Elite QB's can make up for a lot of flaws in an organization, and now we are seeing the Chiefs warts in the light of day.

Andy Reid is an ok coach, not bad, but not the genius he's made out to be. Eric Bieniemy is not a good OC just because he breathes the same air as Mahomes. The defense isn't nearly as menacing when they aren't constantly playing with a lead. Even Kelce and Hill, two elite players, wouldn't be nearly as dominant without Mahomes back there throwing them the ball.

Think of it like this: if you had a child that was learning to walk, but he always held onto furniture or held an adult's hand, he's never going to learn to walk properly. At some point he has to let go of what's holding him up, his crutch, and walk by himself.

The Chiefs are like a child that never lets go. Mahomes has been masking the growing problems and flaws because he is so unbelievably good.

So does that mean the Chiefs are suddenly an average team? No but only because they still have Mahomes. They are still going to win double digit games because of him alone. It just may not be enough to win the division or a Superbowl. Of course things can always break perfectly. Mahomes is still capable of beating any team on any given day. It's just not the most likely scenario anymore.

Let's keep in mind though that they have now played the Browns, Ravens, Chargers, and Bills in the first 5 weeks. Those are all playoff teams with good offenses. They still have the Packers and Cowboys on the schedule, but every other game they will be heavy favorites. The Chiefs should be fine moving forward. They will at least keep it close with the Chargers for the division title and could still pull it out. The difference is that when they play the better teams now, they are no longer the bullies, the giant that's near impossible to bring down. They are mortal, they can be beaten, they are just another good team among many in the AFC.

RC Note: I would like to add…

This (Buffalo) is what happens when you have a superior coach at the head of your organization. Sean McDermott should win a special award for his five years in Buffalo...taking over a bad team, bad organization in perhaps the worst city in the NFL you could take a team over...and he has built them into a dominant force. 

One of the first things McDermott did, first taking over the Buffalo job, was dump Sammy Watkins...as the mainstream clutched their pearls at such nonsense. I knew I liked “Stone Cold’ Sean McDermott right then and there. It would be like if I took over the Bengals and traded Ja’Marr Chase a few weeks later (and I would). 

Ron Rivera took the Panthers to the Super Bowl six years ago, out of nowhere...with a top defense, led by then D-C Sean McDermott. Then McDermott got the Buffalo job and Rivera has had a losing record since. 

McDermott has methodically built the Bills, and I am so glad he got this win to establish the Bills are making a Super Bowl run...and that they are better than KC, regardless. 

Meanwhile, Andy Reid spits out nonsense O-Cs who then go and fail as head coaches (Nick Foles delivered Doug Pederson a miracle Super Bowl, before DP went back to failing...and now Frank Reich is a failure as well from that tree)...but the league LOVES the Andy Reid 'coaching tree’, while no one even bothers with McDermott’s ‘tree’. 

I’m happy for McDermott. 

KC is not dead...they just happened to play the two best teams in football, LAC-BUF, the past few weeks. They will be OK, but they are not the best team in the AFC...nor in the AFC West. 

Fantasy Notes

--Hope you bought more Josh Allen (15-26 for 315 yards, 3 TD/0 INT, 11-59-1) stock early in the season while the mainstream was doubting him. Nothing is going to slow this train down. Allen is a top 5 lock and will be in the running to be #1 all year. He has arguably the easiest schedule of all the top guys as well.

--Before the season started I brought up Dawson Knox (3-117-1/4) to RC and asked him if he thought Knox could become Josh Allen's version of Travis Kelce. They are nearly identical in size and athletic numbers so it seemed like a good idea. RC and I ultimately decided it was unlikely because Knox has displayed poor hands in the past and wasn't being treated like a trusted option.

Five weeks into the season Knox has emerged as Allen's second best option behind Diggs. He is TE2 behind...Kelce. Now before we all get too excited, Knox is not being used the same as Kelce is. Right now he's not getting the same kind of targeting that some of the other TE's are. He's just being incredibly efficient when he does get the ball. Allen is finding him deep down the field most of the time. In this game specifically, Knox got lost in coverage for at least two of his big plays.

I'm not saying to fade him because he's rapidly growing in his connection with Allen. I think this is here to stay. What I am saying is I think the big plays will start to fade off a little but Knox should be able to make up for it with growing target numbers each week. He looks like a bona fide top 5 TE for the rest of the season.

--Make it 4 out of 5 games for Stefon Diggs (2-69-0/5) under 70 yards receiving on the year. The trouble for him right now is that the Bills are blowing people out so badly that Allen doesn't need to throw that much. They get up quickly and then just pound the run to finish the game. Don't worry about it. Diggs is going to get his eventually. He's a fantastic buy-low option at the moment. Still has a lot of name value so he won't come cheaply, but an owner that's starting to panic might be willing to move him in the right deal. Coming into this game he was averaging over 10 targets and game and even with only 5 here he's still averaging 9.4 The yards and TD's will catch up to the targets soon.

--With the rise of Knox and fewer pass attempts by Allen the two receivers behind Diggs have really fallen off hard. Cole Beasley (1-5-0/2) and Emmanuel Sanders (3-54-2/5) have seen their numbers fall off hard in recent weeks. Sanders had a nice day because of his two TD's, but that's not something you can count on. Both guys will continue to be on and off useful, but it's going to be maddening trying to predict their big weeks.

--Zach Moss (11-37-0, 3-55-0/4) is now dominating the snaps and touches between him and Devin Singletary (6-25-0, 1-(-2)-0/2). I don't get it. It doesn't make sense if you've watched them for 5 seconds. But it is what it is. Moss is the back to own here.

*RC NOTE: I mentioned Moss in the TUE Video Q&A (on demand for those that would like to review it...3 hours of goodness). There is a shift/push to have Moss as the lead back for BUF now. I’m still skeptical of Buffalo RBs for FF, for Allen-reasons, but Moss has been productive and is about to get more push...that’s a good thing for FF. 

--The only thing that's changed with the Chiefs in fantasy land is that Clyde Edwards-Helaire sprained his MCL and will be out a few weeks. In his place Darrel Williams (5-27-0, 3-18-0/5) will be the primary replacement and should receive about the same workload as what CEH usually got. If you weren't all that excited about Helaire then I don't see why you'd go wild for Williams. He'll be a back end RB2 option that you hope scores a TD to push him higher, and you will only get a few weeks from him. Don't blow your entire FAAB budget on him. He's a nice temporary pickup and nothing more.

*RC NOTE: We discussed Jerick McKinnon a lot on the Video Q&A last night, check it out on demand if you wish. There’s a window of opportunity here for him. 

--Mecole Hardman (9-76-0/12) somehow pulled down 9 catches here. I was shocked when I saw the stats because I barely remembered him catching the ball at all during the game. I've said for weeks that the Chiefs were trying to push him as the #2 option and here you go. Trouble is he's just not very good. The only reason he got the numbers here was because the Bills were bullying Kelce and playing two deep to keep Tyreek in front of them. It opened up the middle for easy throws to Hardman.

Other teams may try to copy this approach, but it likely won't work as well for them because they don't have the Bills personnel. I don't think this is the start of any big Hardman breakout. He was just the beneficiary of the Buffalo game plan.

--The big debut of Josh Gordon (1-11-0/1) resulted in one catch on one target. That number will likely grow as Gordon gets more acclimated with the team, but I still have my doubts about how high he can go. One interesting note with him...RC and I were texting while watching the game and when the announcers said Gordon's name for his catch we both thought it was 6'6” 240 Jody Fortson at first. Gordon looks huge, more like a TE than a WR. Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing. The size and muscle might rob him of his speed. I couldn't get a good feel for him though as his snaps were so limited. Going to be keeping an eye on him obviously.

*RC Note: DST talk…

Everyone is killing the Chiefs defense, but note that they have faced CLE-BAL-LAC-PHI-BUF so far this season...no break at all for KC. This week they get Taylor Heinicke. I’m not suggesting that the KC-DST is something great in hiding, but may not be as bad as everyone thinks...and that Heinicke may not be that special just because he is facing KC. 

HOLD the Buffalo-DST through their Week 7 bye, and pounce on them if anyone drops them...and look to trade FOR them in a deal Week 7 to an owner who would let the on-a-bye DST go. The schedule for Buffalo-DST from Week 8 on is AMAZING...and the Bills defense is TERRIFIC. 

IDP Notes

--One of the most impressive rookies so far this year has to be Greg Rousseau (5 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT). He is growing by leaps and bounds every week. He has 18 tackles and 3 sacks already this year despite playing about 50% of the snaps so far. He's a big part of why Buffalo's defense has become so dominant this year because last year all they lacked was a pass rush. No longer. Rousseau looks like the real deal. He's got the size, speed, and strength of a prototypical 4-3 defensive end. The only reason he fell in the draft was his inconsistent play and some character questions. So far those haven't been an issue at all. Fantastic pickup by the Bills.

Snap Counts of Interest

55 = Dawson Knox

22 = Reggie Gilliam

42 = Zach Moss

15 = Devin Singletary

R.C. Fischer

FFM

12 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Cowboys 44, Giants 20

It’s not worth reading a ton into this game, the performance/outputs…because this started out a fistfight but one-by-one the Giants key players suffered fluke injuries and pretty quickly into the game…Jones-Barkley-Golladay was replaced by Glennon-Booker-Collin Johnson. Hard to win with that drop off. This report will mainly focus on the FF fallout of the NYG injuries ahead.

But I want to credit the Giants for fighting with all they had, despite the circumstances. Midway through the 3rd-quarter it was only 17-13 Dallas…but the in-game injuries proved too much to overcome, the dam broke, and it turned into a Dallas blowout – but that’s not where this was headed initially.

If I were a Giants fan, I would be mad at my injury luck…but I would not blame or look to change Joe Judge. He nearly pulled off a miracle division title last year, without Saquon (which is now normal) and then bad-Daniel Jones and no O-Line…and no WRs. Doug Pederson screwed them…or they would have had it (remember that Week 17 event?). I think NYG was in line to pull off the upset here too, but the injury gods screwed them.

Daniel Jones has improved. The O-Line is improved. The WR group is VASTLY improved. The defense is very good…if Blake Martinez hadn’t gotten hurt, it’s a top 10 type defense in the NFL. Injury has stripped away all Joe Judge’s top guys. They should not change Judge or O-C Garrett (hey, Jones is better as a QB now than prior…I don’t like Garrett myself, but he doesn’t deserve firing due to any negligence with the offense) nor should they fire GM Gettleman. They have a really nice core of talent, and it was coming together. They deserve to see this through. With this loss (and mass injury) their season is effectively over, but it should not be blamed on the coaching staff.

Dallas might have won anyway, but they got a gift here with all NYG’s bad luck. Dallas is going to win the NFC East by a mile if Dak stays healthy. Dallas is one cornerback, and a healthy return of Demarcus Lawrence away from being the best team in the NFC East. Mike McCarthy is up for Coach of the Year right now…and it might be just that his staff is very good, but McCarthy is the head guy, so he gets the rewards. Jerry Jones as Executive of the Year is on the table as well.

Now, if I know Jerry Jones…he’s going to inject himself into this and ruin it. The first thought I had on how he would do it – he’ll trade for Odell Beckham Jr., and give him a contract extension. Right now, Jones does not get my vote for Exec. of the Year, because where was he getting any of these ace CBs on the loose? Carolina keeps getting them all. Regardless, Dallas is a Super Bowl threat…1-2 things away…things they can trade for. Jerry has to make his move right here, right now. He needs to empty his chamber to trade for Xavien Howard.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Saquon Barkley’s (2-9-0) ankle sprain looked terrible, but apparently isn’t as bad as they thought…a low ankle sprain. They are saying that he’ll miss this week, but I suspect he’s out two weeks minimum. No need to rush him back…he has no need to rush back until he’s 100%.

When Barkley went down, Devontae Booker (16-42-1, 3-16-1/4) put up nice numbers…but really it was due to the TDs. 2.6 ypc…16 yards receiving, really? That’s exciting? He just happened to get the TDs.

Earlier in the year, when Barkley was out…Booker barely touched the ball as the lead back. It’s Booker’s show with the emergency need for NYG, but it may not be all that exciting. And if Daniel Jones is out, then it’s going to be even worse.

I thought Barkley would be out for 4+ weeks at first glance at that injury…and that made Booker an interesting/desperate waiver guy this week. Now, the Barkley injury may not be as bad…and the NYG situation at QB may be off too…this may not be as attractive as it seems. It’s something, it’s touches…but likely disappointing.

 -- Speaking of the NYG QB situation…

Daniel Jones’s (5-13 for 98 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 3-9-0) concussion/playing status won’t be known until later in the week. It’s up in the air. Mike Glennon (16-25 for 196 yards, 1 TDs/2 INTs) is not the worst backup QB, but he’s pretty bad. NYG has nothing on the practice squad (Brian Lewerke), so Glennon it is if Jones is out…and all the offense suffers for it.

The Rams-DST gets this NYG team Week 6…no Barkley-Jones (maybe)-Golladay…or Toney (maybe). It could be an epic DST scoring event.

Glennon drags down all things at WR…maybe he hits a deep ball pop by surprise to John Ross (1-13-0/5) is about all the hope there is if Toney is out.

 -- Let’s finish out the NYG injury report with the NYG WRs…

Kenny Golladay (0-0-0/3) has looked terrific, to me, this season…but now he’s hurt again and out for at least a week. Side note: Trevon Diggs (5 tackles, 2 PDs) has become ‘that guy’…the shutdown guy to be feared by opposing WRs. He rattled Golladay here. Diggs has become more feared than James Bradberry (2 tackles, 1 PD).

With Golladay out and Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton potentially out again…NYG is left with John Ross, Collins Johnson, and hopefully Kadarius Toney (10-189-0/13).

Ahh, Kadarius Toney…

I would now say that he’s the best-looking WR from the 2021 NFL Draft class.

Pre-Draft, for CFM, I noticed the physical gifts…everyone noted the physical gifts. But I also laid out the case for his off-field risk/issues – lazy, underperforming most of his college career, and more into his music career than football…all that being a risk factor to ply his immature self with millions of dollars.

Then what happened this summer? Missing practices. Making coaches mad. Shooting his mouth off in the press. On cue.

What happened in this game – he was amazing…stunning…beautiful…and then the dark side reared its head – punched a player in the helmet. Dumb to throw a punch in a football game as it is, but dumber to throw a punch putting his moneymaking hand at risk by trying to punch a solid plastic object.

Toney is magnificently gifted and is also an immature, deranged person living in a make-believe world where he’s an old school gangster rapper.

You have no idea which side is going to win. In the end, I’m sure the ‘kills his career’ part will win out. However, it could be a sweet ride before the race car hits the wall…like an OBJ 2.0.

Enter at your own risk.

I would not try to buy in after his Week 5…the stove is too hot. Toney has an ankle injury…and a possible team sanctioned ‘suspended for a game or a half’, etc., to deal with….and Mike Glennon possibly to work with. Let Toney have a down Week 6, then look at dealing for him if you want in. If he has a nice Week 6…then his price is still high, and you didn’t really lose anything waiting…but his price may go down with 1-2 weaker games. I want in on something special like this, but I’m willing to wait.

Remember how awesome Rondale Moore was in his first two games? Now what’s his vibe? You don’t even know if you should redraft-roster him any longer. It happens that fast with rookies. Have patience.

As far as this game…a few notes:

*Stunning body control. Stunning ability to stop-start and change directions and accelerate. He’s like a bigger Tyreek Hill…but no one is Tyreek…

*The idiot O-C of KC can’t figure out how to get Tyreek Hill the ball, but Jason Garrett found every way possible to get Toney the ball in his first real start.

*Toney caught bubble screens, medium #1 WR timing routes, slants, and deep balls. He caught a medium route pass and ran right through defenders like they were standing still, getting tackled by his shoestrings to fall a yard short of a TD.

*Toney ran a wildcat play and fell a yard short of a rushing TD.

*Toney had a pass play called for him as well…a WR option pass.

*When Golladay went down, Toney started drawing Trevon Diggs some…and Diggs couldn’t really handle him.

*Brilliant play design by Garrett and Judge. It makes you pissed off at Reid-Bieniemy for constantly wasting Tyreek Hill, imprisoning him as a ‘deep ball guy’ when he could get 10+ catches per game around the line of scrimmage to then try and make plays after the catch. Instead, they did that with Mecole Hardman last week…and, surprise, they lost again and are in last place.

*Perhaps the most amazing thing about Toney’s game here…10 catches, 13 targets, 1 carry, 1 pass attempt…and he only played 54% of the snaps (37) in the game. Hats off to Judge-Garrett.

To that I say, Eric Bieniemy and Andy Reid…go piss off. You guys are morons with the way you use Tyreek Hill. Andy Reid…all your O-C’s turned HCs are utter garbage from your ‘tree’…Doug Pederson, Matt Nagy, and whenever the joke of Eric Bieniemy gets a gig. Oh, but you won a Super Bowl…thank Patrick Mahomes. You should be winning multiple ones with Mahomes…but now you’re in last place. Congrats.

Toney’s workday: https://youtu.be/QuD4z9FltWE

 -- Dalton Schultz (6-79-0/8) is the Dallas #1 WR…as a TE…he is the BFF of Dak, not Amari right now…and certainly not Lamb.

Season to date catches:

26 = Schultz

25 = Cooper

24 = Lamb

FF PPR PPG since Week 2 (Wks2-5):

15.4 = Schultz

12.3 = CeeDee

10.5 = Amari

07.8 = C Wilson

Amari’s last four games catch counts in each game: 3-3-3-3.

CeeDee Lamb catches in the last three games: 3-2-4

Schultz catches in his last three games: 6-6-6

Rec. TDs since Week 2 (Wks2-5):

3 = Schultz

2 = Ced Wilson

2 = Amari

1 = CeeDee

Schultz is the #5 FF PPG PPR TE for the season…just ahead of #6 Darren Waller, but Schultz is still seen as a randomly lucky TE who is a random TE1 that will fall at any time. People with Schultz are emailing me saying, “I need to improve my TEs…what should I do to trade for Waller or Kittle?”

Waller and Kittle are not upgrades from Schultz…get that into your brain.

 -- I hope you’re preparing to cash in on Bet The Close’s Chris Bilello’s Defensive Rookie of the Year preseason bet on Micah Parsons (8 tackles, 3 QB hits)…taking advantage of the favorable preseason odds on that prop bet.

Parsons has 9 QB hits the past 4 games as he transitioned to DE while Demarcus Lawrence is out. He’s playing terrific football and is on the high-profile team that is very likely to win their division and make a Super Bowl run – he has everything going for him to walk away with that DROY award with ease.

The Rams have Donald-Ramsey that the media likes to boast about. It might be Parsons-Diggs they blather about in the near future…that Dallas has two of the great young defenders in the game.

 -- Tony Pollard (14-75-0, 4-28-0/4) is getting a ton of touches for a backup. Pollard has more carries this season than…Chase Edmonds and Miles Sanders, among other ‘starters’.

Carries + catches, Pollard has one more than Javonte Williams this season.

And Pollard is only rising in touches. Since Week 2 (Wks2-5), Pollard has more carries than Conner-Fournette-Mk Davis, Moss, Jamaal Williams, M. Carter, Javonte, Latavius, D. Swift among others.

Snap Counts of Interest:

57 = Schultz

31 = Jarwin

47 = Elliott

31 = Pollard

50 = Engram

41 = Rudolph

41 = Ross

37 = Toney

30 = Collin Johnson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

12 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Falcons 27, Jets 20

The Falcons were up 17-0 early 2nd-quarter…the beneficiaries of some fortuitous penalties and just raw Patterson and Pitts domination. It was 20-3 at the half, Atlanta…the Falcons looked OK, and the Jets couldn’t get out of their own way. But then the Jets mounted a comeback…cutting the lead to 20-17 mid-4th-quarter but the Falcons responded with a TD on the next series and withstood the Jets ‘hurry up’ flurry in the end for the victory.

Atlanta wasn’t overly impressive, but they were better, more sound series to series than the erratic Jets. Atlanta is that dumb Washington game  ending in Week 4 away from a three-game win streak (but they’re close to being 0-5 as well). I don’t know how they’ve nearly won 3 in a row…because the Falcons are awful. But they’ve gotten an easy schedule the last 3 weeks…and it continues ahead with Miami Week 6.

If the Falcons beat Miami Week 6, people will think they’re ‘fixed’, but they are not. They’re winning games because of Cordarrelle Patterson and taking advantage of an easy schedule. We project the Falcons to finish with 5-6 wins.  

The Jets…they aren’t learning or getting better. Zach Wilson is still taking too many risks, which is admirable at times but unnecessary at others. That’s a sign of the coaches not getting through to him. You’d think Wilson would be improving in this area, but he’s really not. He’s been better than his way-too-flamboyant 4 INT game vs. the Patriots, he’s starting to check down to RBs a bit more…but he still tries to gun it like Ricky Bobby’s dad in a racecar as soon as the Jets are down. Wilson is coachable, I believe, so the fact that they aren’t reeling him in is a concern – a concern that the staff isn’t managing the problem. I can’t believe Wilson just goes rogue. He’s not that kinda player.

The Jets have a solid+ defense and an erratic offense…one that the too young/too inexperienced brother of Saleh’s BFF is taking major heat for. And it’s probably part of the overall Jets-O problem. Wilson needs guidance/a slap but more so the young O-C as well needs help…not a good combination of needs, and no one to really help fix it right now.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- We should start with Kyle Pitts (9-119-1/10)…

I’m not sure if this was a breakout…not leading the concept/idea/thought one way or the other. I mean…I truly don’t know.

I’m not seeing ‘dominant’ with Pitts yet, but the potential problem is – he’s so smooth it doesn’t look like he’s trying but he’s just better than everyone with ease. Or is he still tentative or restricted? He’s not ‘obvious’ (to me) watching him…not like how much better Javonte Williams is than Najee Harris at a glance. Not like how different in movement/skills Kadarius Toney is than Ja’Marr Chase.

With that, what I see…

Pitts is not getting open like a dominant stud. He’s usually tightly covered and needs a great throw for him to go get. The good news is…Ryan is putting it near him more, and Pitts has a superhuman ability to just snatch passes in a crowd…so, Pitts just need targets -- and he can do the rest from there. But I wish he was just beating the pants off of coverage, but he is not. In college he did. His feet were amazing. I haven’t seen him open it up in the NFL much.

Additionally, I don’t see any innovative ways they are using Pitts, but this game, without Ridley, they forced Pitts targets…finally. Will they keep it up when Ridley returns? I do not know. At least this game established…Ryan can trust Pitts in real games. He hasn’t been that to Ryan prior.

The good news = Pitts showed us why we should be excited.

The maybe-bad news = We don’t know if this keeps up when Ridley is back.

Arthur Smith has shown me NOTHING as an offensive guru, so I am worried that this keeps up…and that Smith will ever get Pitts working in unique ways anytime soon.

 -- I don’t feel like the Falcons are working to or as desperate to use Pitts as they are Cordarrelle Patterson (14-54-0, 7-60-0/9)…and that’s why I’m encouraged but cautious on Pitts enthusiasm. However, I have had no such fears about CP…even as every single NFL and FF analyst stoked the fear of ‘low snap counts’ and ‘this can’t keep up’ last week – I chose to take the lesser travelled path of…’look at the upside when his snaps go up’. They had to go up, CP was playing too well not to see more work.

In this game…

CP played a season high 59% of the snaps here. Mike Davis (64%)

CP took a season high 14 carries.

CP saw a season high 9 targets.

CP threw a season high one pass (incomplete).

This week will be full of ‘but that’s because Ridley was out’. I’m not listening to THEM on Patterson. Why should I? They’ve been wrong or ignorant of it all along.

Patterson is the current #2 RB in PPR PPG…just behind Derrick Henry.

Patterson is the current #3 WR in PPR PPG…just behind Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp.

If it all ended today…we couldn’t complain with what we got so far, but I think: https://youtu.be/lkjXcRLNZHQ?t=15

 -- Some detailed football analysis from a pro at this: All the Jets WRs suck.

Corey Davis (4-45-0/7) is as bad a #1 WR as there is in the league.

Jamison Crowder (4-24-0/6) stuck in mud for speed.

Keelan Cole (2-38-00/3) and Denzel Mims (2-33-0/3) are their best options, but neither hardly play/see targets enough.

I want nothing to do with this offense except using Michael Carter (10-38-1, 3-20-0/3) in a pinch if I need bye week help or an emergency start for injury.

Wilson is barely throwing TD passes as it is…so, not much juice for these WRs anyway.

 -- Not for nothing, I know Kyle Pitts is the man and all…but have you noticed Hayden Hurst (4-40-1/5) has been involved a little bit? 4 catches in each of his last two games. Three 4 catch games so far this season playing about 50% of the snaps.

 -- I’ve been slamming Matt Ryan (33-45 for 342 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) all season for looking terrible, which he does to me…he’s a bottom 10 QB to my eye…but he’s caught some fire with the easier schedule = 8 TDs/0 INT and 275+ pass yards per game the last 3 weeks. Cord Patterson is really helping Ryan’s numbers.

The good times for Ryan should be ending ahead: MIA-CAR-NO the next 3 weeks.

 -- I’m still a believer in Zach Wilson (19-32 for 192 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) but only for Dynasty…only as a #3-4 QB investment. He has almost no value now in the real world. He’s not getting any better in 2021 with this O-Line and these WRs. He may get a bit better but as for using him for FF for any reason…it’s gonna be awhile.

 -- The Jets defense got thumped early, but then bowed up and kept the Jets in the game…like they do every week. It’s an emerging, tough group…but not elite…and no offensive support.

Except in an obvious situation…you can’t trust them. Weeks 11-16 is interesting, however: MIA-HOU-PHI-NO-MIA-JAX.

Snap Counts of Interest:

50 = Mk Davis

46 = CPatt

03 = Gallman

54 = Pitts

43 = Hurst

34 = Lee Smith

29 = Carter

22 = Ty J

05 = Tevin C

45 = Corey Davis

34 = Crowder

31 = Keelan Cole

08 = Mims

06 = Berrios

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

11 October 2021

Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

11 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Rams 26, Seahawks 17

These two teams scuffed around in the first half, both running the ball into stacked boxes a lot, multiple stupid calls on 3rd or 4th and short. It was a real snooze fest and the Seahawks led 7-3 at halftime.

In the second half the Rams decided to wake up and scored twice to take a commanding 16-7 lead.

Then Russell Wilson got hurt, the Seahawks were pinned on their own 1 yard line, and it looked like the game was over.

And then the craziest thing I've seen all year happened. Geno Smith somehow drove the Seahawks 99 yards for a TD after Wilson was hardly able to move the ball all day. Seattle had been running their typical boring straight ahead runs all day, but suddenly decided to spread it out with Geno and let him sling it...and it worked!

Seattle was down by 2 but the game was back within reach. Unfortunately the comeback wouldn't last as the Rams scored again to go up by 9. Geno fell apart after his miracle first drive and the Rams walked away with a solid victory.

Would things have ended differently with Wilson in the game instead of Geno? Perhaps. You can never count out the magic of Russell Wilson. But I tend to think it wouldn't have mattered. LA was the better team and had Seattle in a very disadvantageous position.

It's hard to say just how good the Rams might be right now. They are obviously talented, but it feels like something is missing to me. They have a pretty good offense and a pretty good defense. Everything looks solid on paper. They'll be in the playoffs but probably as a Wildcard because Arizona just looks better right now. I still want to see them take control a little bit more instead of letting teams hang with them for so long. It might just be my current anti-Stafford/McVay bias talking however. They are a good team. No use nitpicking them too much.

I think it's safe to say the Seahawks are done for the year. They were their usual ok selves. Russell could have carried them to 10 or 11 wins, but with him gone for a month or two it's over. The defense is just not good, and Geno isn't taking this offense anywhere but down. They might not make it to 6 wins now.

Fantasy Notes

--This is why RC is always telling everyone to have a strong 2nd QB. Real teams and fantasy teams alike still don't get the point. The QB is the most important position on the field. Even in fantasy a good one can help carry your team through down weeks from your skill position players. I've already gotten at least a couple wins this year because Mahomes nearly outscored my opponent by himself. You need a good one, and you need a good backup in case disaster strikes.

If Christian McCaffrey gets hurt, I can plug in Chuba Hubbard and still get some ok production out of him. If Russell Wilson goes down, I cannot put my hopes and dreams on Geno Smith. It's much easier to find usable RB or WR help if your top guys get hurt, but TE's and QB's are nearly impossible to adequately replace.

--With the loss of Wilson, Tyler Lockett (5-57-0/10) and DK Metcalf (5-98-2/5) are shot. You can't trade them and you're basically forced to start them regardless. Of the two I think Lockett is in more trouble. DK was already becoming the top guy, and he's the bigger body, safer throw for Geno to look for. The connection isn't going to be great, the volume is still going to be low, and now the scores will be fewer, but Metcalf might be able to hang on as a WR1.5. Lockett is a WR2 at best, probably not even that good.

--Alex Collins (15-47-0, 2-25-0/3) did get the start for Chris Carson this week, but it wasn't as good as I had hoped. The Rams aren't usually that good against the run, but for some reason Seattle was just slamming Collins into a brick wall all night. If Carson is out another week it's going to be a rough start again for Collins against the Steelers. It's safe touches if you absolutely need a spot RB start, but don't count on getting much from him. He'll need a TD to have a decent day.

--It's just a minor note, but the Seahawks had Colby Parkinson on the field quite a bit the 2nd half of this game. They didn't use him a whole lot but it was interesting because he was lined up out wide and not as a traditional TE. He was moving around pretty good, quite well actually considering how big he is (seriously, go find a picture of him standing next to Metcalf). I don't think he's anywhere close to being fantasy relevant, but perhaps we're seeing the first clues that Seattle knows they have something with him. He's a favorite of RC's and after this first look I definitely want to keep an eye on him over the next year or two. He's a nice super deep stash in the larger dynasty leagues.

--All week we heard Robert Woods (12-150-0/14) was whining about targets, and wouldn't you know it, he gets 14 here and everything is back to normal. I advised previously to be patient with him, that he wasn't being locked out of the game by Stafford even though it's clear that Kupp is the primary look. All this means is that while Kupp is a top 5 WR this year, Woods is still going to be close to the top 12 or so by the time we're done. Unfortunately the buy low window on him just slammed shut.

--Don't worry about the “split” touches between Darrell Henderson (17-82-1, 1-17-0/1) and Sony Michel (11-37-1, 1-8-0/1). Henderson left the game at one point for an injury checkup and Michel replaced him. If that hadn't happened Henderson would have dominated the touches here. Contrary to all past evidence, McVay seems to be 100% in with Henderson and you should consider him a RB1 the rest of the way. It might still be possible to wrestle him away from a nervous owner, but people are starting to figure this out quickly and it's getting harder and harder to acquire him by the week.

--RC and I have both written an awful lot about Matt Stafford vs Jared Goff etc, and after five weeks of watching both guys I'm ready to say...we were absolutely 100% correct about this. Stafford is a good QB no doubt, and Detroit certainly wasn't doing him any favors, but he's not elite and he was definitely not worth giving up multiple 1st round picks and Goff to acquire (unless of course the Rams win the Superbowl, which they could absolutely do, because that justifies all things).

Stafford is going to pile up numbers this year because he has a good team around him, they play a relatively easy schedule, and McVay wants to prove a point by having Stafford air it out. It's a perfect scenario and all those reasons are why I drafted Kupp on every team this year. I wanted a piece of this offense without having to rely on Stafford due to his cost to acquire.

Now I think Stafford is going to finish the year as a top 5 QB in fantasy, but just watching him in games...I'm not that impressed. He's good but Goff can do everything Stafford can do and has in the past. If the Rams win the Superbowl this year then perhaps it was a good trade for everyone. That's possible. Not everything has to have a winner and a loser.

IDP Notes

--Jordyn Brooks (11 tackles) is still lighting it up. Like I said weeks ago, he is the new, better KJ Wright. He's averaging 9 tackles a game. On this point, if you're in an IDP league, why are you worrying about not having Darius Leonard or Devin White? Every game it seems like I can point out another LB tearing it up with tackle counts. There's just not a huge difference between any of them. Don't fret your linebackers, trust me. There's usable guys all over the place.

--My guy Quandre Diggs (5 tackles, 1 INT) came up big again with an interception on a pass Stafford was trying to throw away. He's playing some really good football right now.

Snap Counts of Interest

44 = Darrell Henderson

23 = Sony Michel

57 = Will Dissly

35 = Colby Parkinson

46 = Alex Collins

14 = DeeJay Dallas

Ross Jacobs

FFM

09 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Bills 40, Texans 0 

I mean, what do you want me to say here? A great team played a bad team and beat the pants off of them. I have nothing particularly clever or insightful to add about this one. I will say I thought Houston fought extremely hard given the circumstances. They could have easily rolled over and died, but they kept coming after Buffalo.

Houston just isn't talented enough to compete right now, but I've been quite impressed with their performance these first 4 games considering the state of the franchise over the last year or two. We'll see how long that energy stays high when the losses start to mount though.

Just another ho hum beatdown by the Bills. They aren't the most talented team top to bottom, but they are so disciplined and well coached. It's no secret that they'll be in the mix for the top seed in the AFC and a Superbowl favorite. They have a really nice schedule the rest of the way, but a win over the Chiefs this week would be massive for their chances at the top seed and a huge blow to the Chiefs who are falling behind in the AFC West race.

Fantasy Notes

--It's been a slow-ish start for Josh Allen (20-30 for 248 yards, 2 TD/1 INT, 6-41-0) in the fantasy department because they've mostly been crushing teams every week and thus running out the block late in the game, but I have no concerns about him and would even advise people to look at him as a buy-low candidate. He just missed out on a couple of rushing TD's to pad his stats here. They will come. The schedule is a dream, and I expect Allen to finish as a top 3-5 QB by year's end.

--The only knock I have on the way this Buffalo team is run is their baffling RB usage. You cannot watch Devin Singletary (14-79-0, 1-7-0/1) and Zach Moss (14-61-1) on the same field and tell me that Moss is better than Singletary. It's no contest. Singletary looks fantastic, quick and fast, while Moss looks like his typical James Conner-esque self. He's powerful but that's literally it. He needs perfect blocking or else he's falling down for 1-2 yards. This should be a backfield dominated by Singletary, but McDermott thinks otherwise, and so for fantasy we are stuck with a frustrating split, and one where the lesser talented player is getting all the TD's. I don't like it, but Moss is the guy to own out of the two because he gets the goalline opportunities. I wouldn't want either ideally though.

--Another week, another somewhat quiet event for Stefon Diggs (7-114-0/11). Yes, he got 100 yards, but the TD's haven't come yet and thus he's flying a little under the radar. He's still difficult to trade for after last year's breakout, but you could possibly pry him away with the right deal. He's still a WR1 all day.

--I've seen some enthusiasm for Dawson Knox (5-37-2/8) this week because people are dying at TE, and I can't argue against it. His snaps and usage rate have really jumped in recent weeks, and Josh Allen is looking for him often around the endzone because he's a big, reliable target. Looks like another year of lower catches and yards for Knox but will be fantasy useful because he catches 10 TDs.

--Davis Mills (11-21 for 87 yards, 0 TD/4 INT) took an absolute beating here...but he didn't look as bad as I was expecting. A large part of this is just that the Bills are far more talented as a team than this pathetic Houston roster and Mills was just in way over his head. But after watching it back I was impressed with how Mills handled the pressure. He was hanging in the pocket while taking a pounding and was trying to make a play, but the Bills were just suffocating on defense. It should also be noted that at least 2 of his INT's were not his fault. One ricocheted off a receiver's hands to a defender and another was batted into the air at the line and again went straight to a defender.

Overall, Mills still isn't that talented a QB, but he's not as bad as he looked here. He's got a level of poise and enough arm talent to make it as a backup, but he belongs on the bench and not starting, certainly against one of the league's best defenses.

--The only other player you could even think of using from Houston is Brandin Cooks (5-47-0/7), but he really needs Tyrod Taylor back. I would lump him in, maybe a step or so behind, Michael Pittman and Kenny Golladay as WR1.5-2's hiding in plain sight. You could probably get him much cheaper than what he's worth if you need WR help.

IDP Notes

--Has RC mentioned how good Desmond King (9 tackles, 1 tfl) is? Because he's pretty good.

‍

Snap Counts of Interest

58 = Dawson Knox

53 = Stefon Diggs

51 = Emmanuel Sanders

36 = Cole Beasley

40 = Zach Moss

32 = Devin Singletary

R.C. Fischer

FFM

08 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Jets 27, Titans 24

In this tape study, I was hoping to see a nice step forward by the Jets…their first win, a come from behind gutty win. I like the energy of this Jets team…kudos to Robert Saleh. I want them to move forward.

Is that what I saw on tape? No. Not really.

It’s the same tape every week with the 2021 Jets…the only difference here was they won. They won because Zach Wilson hit a few big play bombs at the right time, and these weak Jets receivers actually caught the passes this time. It’s the same Wilson tape – Brett Favre at his worst (and sometimes best)…erratic, gambling, trying to make plays that are low probability QB play mixed with a really nice-looking defense. I said in my Robert Saleh new hire study – the 1st-time D-C hired, (former NFL player) Jeff Ulbrich, was the better man for the job. He’ll get a job next year with this stunning turnaround of the Jets defense.

The Jets are like playing a slot machine on offense…you’re going to lose overall, but occasionally you’ll pull the handle and win one and it’s sweet. The defense does their best to hold off the opposing offense getting constant drives with good field position (because the Jets O can’t sustain drives and has turnovers) – and they did that here again, shutting down the first three Titans’ drives to field goals and a 9-0 lead…that very easily could’ve been 17 or 21 to nothing right out of the gates. Had the Titans had their starting WRs, it might have been.

I will say, it’s fun to see this Jets team playing with passion – the defense is going 100mph and at all times, while the offense is not just throwing screens all day…Zach Wilson is trying to win the Super Bowl with every throw…to his detriment but you might as well lose in a blaze of glory, not padding your Comp. Pct. stats.

The Titans lost and fell to (2-2), but they’ll be fine. They were injured going into this and unlucky not to have won it easily anyway. The Titans could’ve really put some distance in the AFC South with a win, but they now let the Colts (1-3) have some life. Tennessee should still win the AFC South with 9-10 wins…and everyone else under .500.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The first thing to talk about here is -- that Jets defense. The media and FF analysts are now starting to wake up. We’ve been pointing out the change in the Jets D since Week 1 and projecting them as a matchup to worry about for your opposing WRs and TEs the past two weeks.

The Jets defense has allowed just 2 passing TDs…the lowest in the league.

They are # 5 in sacks so far this season.

They are #2/best in 3rd-down conversions allowed (28.6%).

They are #4 in red zone TDs allowed per trip…a whisker away from #1/best.

Their offense is giving them no help in support…the Jets D is carrying this team. Keeping them in games.

Week 5 they face a weak Atlanta offense missing its #1 WR. Should be a decent FF opportunity for this DST.

Side note: The one flaw to attack on this aggressive Jets defense is the offense using their aggression against them in the form of screen passes/easy throws to the RBs. The Jets have allowed the 2nd-most targets and catches per game to RBs, and the most receiving yards per game to opposing RB groups.

Thus…Jeremy McNichols (8-74-0/12) had a big day as a receiver here.

Thus…our lofty projections on Cordarrelle Patterson all week for Week 5.

 -- Jamison Crowder (7-61-1/9) made his 2021 debut here, and it didn’t look great but it was OK. Crowder is a very average WR getting pushed on the Jets for reasons I do not fully understand…one of them is because of how pathetic the Jets WR group has been the last two years.

I guess this is going to work OK going forward because Corey Davis is a terrible #1 WR and Denzel Mims is buried in deep space somewhere not hardly seeing the field, plus they have the worst TE depth chart in football. Wilson has to throw to somebody.

 -- The best-looking WR in this game, hands down, was Josh Reynolds (6-59-0/9) …not even close…in a mild shock to me because I thought he was being buried by the Titans coaching staff – for a lingering injury, then some nonsense about him not playing special teams well (which he shouldn’t even be working special teams). He had to play here due to all the WR injuries and he was CLEARLY the best WR on the field between these two teams. I knew he was good, but that’s the best I’ve seen him look.

He’ll likely go back to being buried as A.J. and Julio return, but if Julio doesn’t return…maybe Reynolds can make a statement. He had a very good game here.

 -- Zach Wilson (21-34 for 297 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is making baby step progress every week. He took more checkdowns in this game and landed some of his deep ball shots, but he is still taking to many unnecessary chances downfield…it’s both admirable (he’s going for the jugular not throwing right into triple coverage like they aren’t there) and maddening (because it’s such low probability stuff). He’s such a talent. I wonder if this would have been what Pat Mahomes would’ve been like if thrown into the fire right away as a rookie with crap WRs and no offensive coaching experience anywhere near him?

His one INT was a throw to Corey Davis, who slipped on his break/route and left the ball clean through to the trailing DB. Not Wilson’s fault.

On the other side of the field, watching Ryan Tannehill (30-49 for 298 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) play – he is so good. He’s really developed into one of the best QBs in the NFL. He’s a pleasure to watch now. I’ve learned to appreciate him, not question him.

And in the battle of ‘was it Brady or Belichick?’ = the answer was ‘Brady’ all along.

In the battle of ‘was it Tanny vs. silver-spoon O-C Arthur Smith?’ = the answer was CLEARLY Tannehill. Arthur Smith is a flaming bust head coach who got lucky to be with Tannehill and Derrick Henry.

 -- John Franklin-Myers (4 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs, 3 QB hits) had himself a game, and then got a contract extension this week.

Franklin-Myers is averaging 3.8 tackles, 0.67 sacks per game this season to date.

He looks good to me, but I’m never like ‘Wow, what a beast’. He’s good.

Snap Counts of Interest:

50 = Corey Davis

38 = Crowder

36 = K Cole

10 = Mims

09 = Berrios

31 = M Carter

20 = Ty J

11 = T Coleman

81 = Westbrook-Ikhine

78 = J Reynolds

66 = Ch Rogers

25 = Batson

Ross Jacobs

FFM

08 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Buccaneers 19, Patriots 17

The much ballyhooed reunion between Tom Brady and Bill Belichick did not go the way most people expected. All week there was talk that Tom was going to try and roll up 50 points on the Patriots, that the Patriots couldn't hang with the better team, etc etc.

Well, turns out they can do more than hang with them. The Patriots controlled this game for the most part and darn near pulled off the win. The two teams looked even, hard as that is to believe.

The Patriots had a fantastic game plan in place that seemed to frustrate Brady all night. He was off his game and struggled to even complete a pass at times. Eventually Brady was forced to just hand the ball off to Fournette over and over to try and grind out the win, and the Patriots still had a chance on a last second drive but they missed a long FG attempt in the pouring rain as time expired.

The Buccaneers got the win, but Belichick arguably got a notch in his belt here in the eternal debate about who mattered more to the Patriot dynasty, him or Brady.

Tampa moves to 3-1. Week 1, the Bucs hung on versus a feisty Dallas team that suddenly looks very good. They tussled with a bad Falcons team for 3.5 quarters before a couple of pick sixes put the game away. They got smoked by the Rams, and now they just struggled with an average Patriots team. The offense is good, coming in at 5th in points (with some turnover help) and 7th in yards. The defense is not so good. They are 23rd in points allowed and 20th in yards allowed with most of that coming through the air. This is still pretty much the same team that won the Superbowl last year, but now they are banged up in the secondary and a bit better on offense. Yes, they won the Superbowl, but they also were a bit shaky through the regular season and didn't go into the playoffs as a favorite. They were beneficiaries of a rather weak schedule last year, and they have another easy schedule this year. I do expect their record to be very good at the end, but I'm not sure this team is as strong a contender as we think they are.

The Patriots, meanwhile, are 1-3 with their only win coming over the Jets. They did fight the Bucs well here, but it doesn't look like they have the firepower to really compete. They are a bottom 8 team on offense and a top 8 team on defense (by the stats, I'm skeptical though as they've played 3 bad QBs so far). They should be a tough out most weeks for a lot of better teams as they play strong defense and a ball control offense, but it's hard to win games when you don't score points. I definitely overestimated this team to start the year. They are going to struggle to get to .500.

Fantasy Notes

--Mac Jones (31-40 for 275, 2 TD/1 INT) is getting a lot of props in the media for being not-terrible, but being a game manager doesn't really impress me. All he's doing is throwing curl routes all day. Who cares what his completion percentage is when the team can't even score 20 points? It's a good start I guess. There's hope for him 3-4 years down the road to develop into more of a downfield passer, but I see nothing today that gets me excited about his prospects.

--Damien Harris (4-(-4)-0, 2-30-0/2) had an awful day unsurprisingly. It's still really hard to run on Tampa. He should be ok moving forward, but note that New England started to get Brandon Bolden (1-0-0, 6-51-0/6) more involved here although that may have been more as the James White replacement. If Bolden is taking over for White instead of JJ Taylor, then he may be useful for ppr moving forward as Mac loves his dump passes.

--Jakobi Meyers (8-70-0/12) is averaging over 10 targets a game for around 7 catches and 60 yards or so. He also has not caught a TD in his professional career despite bringing in 112 passes for 1,334 yards over three years. If he ever does start catching TD's he could find himself going from solid ppr WR2-2.5 to maybe a WR1.5. He's safe points if you need them.

--Leonard Fournette (20-91-0, 3-47-0/5) took the bulk of the carries over Ronald Jones here. I'm not sure if we can count on that going forward (I would probably bet against it), but it is something to monitor as Fournette could likely be pried away from his owner without too many problems. He could be a sneaky buy low on here provided we know he's going to be “the guy.” I'm still in wait and see mode though.

--Good luck trying to predict which two receivers Brady is going to pepper each game. Seems like it's matchup dependent, but I have no idea what the pattern is. Here's how they stack up for the season:

Mike Evans: 37 targets (9.25/g), 23 catches (5.75/g), 280 yards (70/g), 2 TD's (0.5/g) = 15.75 ppg

Chris Godwin: 30 targets (7.5/g), 22 catches (5.5/g), 296 yards (74/g), 2 TD's (0.5/g) = 15.9 ppg

Antonio Brown: 21 targets (7.0/g), 13 catches (4.3/g), 201 yards (67/g), 1 TD (0.25/g) = 13.0 ppg

I'm not even sure those numbers reflect the true balance either as Brown has missed one game and had another where he was almost completely unused for whatever reason. All three guys are getting good work for fantasy, but given the cost AB has arguably been the most valuable as he was a late round pick while the other two went much higher. It seems like they can all coexist, but it will get really interesting if one of the three gets hurt. It doesn't hurt that Gronk has been out with injuries the last couple games either.

A final note about the receivers: we expected Evans to be the primary deep ball guy, but the numbers and my eyes both say that when Brady wants a big play down the field he's actually looking to Brown for it. I'm not sure if that's useful to know or not, but it's something to keep in mind.

--Since starting the year with 9 TD's in his first two games, Tom Brady (22-43 for 269, 0 TD/0 INT) has only managed 1 in his last two games, and he has another tough passing matchup against the Dolphins this week. They have been terrible against the run however, so we could see another muted game from Tom. He's QB4 through four games.

IDP Notes

--Richard Sherman (7 tackles) is old and just signed with the Buccaneers this week, and yet with almost no practice or time to learn the scheme, he waltzed right in and did just fine. Tell me again how much practice and the playbook matters.

--For those of you keeping track, Devin White (5 tackles) now has 28 tackles on the year, an average of 7 per game, no sacks, no INT's, no FF's, and only a single PD. Where is this amazing playmaking LB I heard so much about last year? Not so easy to put up numbers when you don't have an elite defense around to let you run free to the ball. I'm going to keep hammering this point until I'm blue in the face. White is a good athlete and decent LB, but he is NOT elite and needs a ton of help to be at his best. Lavonte David is the superior linebacker on this team.

Snap Counts of Interest

73 = Godwin

69 = Evans

40 = Brown

64 = Fournette

13 = Ronald Jones

36 = Damien Harris

19 = Brandon Bolden

4 = JJ Taylor

Ross Jacobs

FFM

08 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Chiefs 42, Eagles 30

You wouldn't know it from the final score, but the Eagles hung in this game for a lot longer than many expected. They were going toe to toe with the Chiefs early on, trading scoring blows until the end of the first half.

At halftime the Chiefs only led 21-13, and the Eagles would cut that lead to 5 with a 3rd quarter field goal. It wasn't until the end of the 3rd quarter that the Chiefs would score again to extend their lead, but Philly once again answered right back with a TD of their own to make the game 28-23. With 8 minutes left in the game the ending was still in doubt. The Chiefs would then score back to back TD's to put the game out of reach for the Eagles.

It was a 12 point win for the Chiefs, and many people will take this as a sign that everything is fine and the team is still the betting favorites to win the Superbowl. I very much disagree. The Chiefs are still a good team, don't get me wrong. So long as they have Patrick Mahomes they have a chance to win every game. But we've watched this team scrape by the Browns, lose a lead against a banged up Ravens squad, get thumped by the upstart Chargers, and now have to scrap with the Eagles for 3.5 quarters. This is no longer a dominant team. They have a high powered offense, but the defense is beyond poor. 

Think of them like the old Saints teams where Drew Brees was going to score 30-35 points and hope the defense could keep the opponent under 30. The schedule isn't particularly difficult so they should get to 11-12-13 wins, but it's no longer a lock that they will win their own division. If they lose to the Chargers in December they are very likely to end up with a Wildcard into the playoffs which robs them of the home field advantage they've enjoyed for years.

The Eagles are now 1-3, but probably should be 2-2 except for a lot of dumb mistakes and bad luck against the 49'ers. They aren't a good team exactly, but I don't think they are among the league's worst either. The defense has a little bite to it now led by the DPOY level play of Javon Hargrave, and the offense is good enough with Jalen Hurts.

The Philly defense has gotten thumped the last two weeks for 83 points, but that was against two of the best offenses in the league and the Cowboys also had a pick 6 thrown in. They are 24th in points per game but 14th in yards per game, and I'd say they are closer to league average than league worst. The offense, meanwhile, is 17th in points per game but 9th in yards (lots of garbage time). Again, they are probably closer to average than top 10, but there is potential for more scoring if they could get their offensive line healthy and stop shooting themselves in the foot with stupid penalties. Do not sleep on this team. They really aren't that bad.

Fantasy Notes

--Still don't believe in Jalen Hurts (32-48 for 387 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 8-47-0)? You should. He's QB3 on the season so far behind only Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray. He's completing 66% of his passes for 292 yds/g, 1.75 TD's/g, 0.5 INT's/g, 56.5 rush yds/g, and 0.5 rush TD's/g. His ceiling is incredibly high, but his floor is also very high every week because of his incredible rushing numbers. Do not fear starting him ever.

--I cannot stop singing the praises of DeVonta Smith (7-122-0/10) either. He has been one of my favorite players to watch over the last year going back to his final college season, and I'm thoroughly enjoying watching him succeed despite so many analysts saying he wouldn't because 1. “he's too skinny” or 2. “Hurts isn't a good passer.” Whoops.

--RC texted me before the game started that he had a funny feeling Kenneth Gainwell (3-31-1, 6-58-0/8) was going to have a big game (I replied back that I had the same feeling about DeVonta) and wouldn't you know it, Gainwell is heavily involved and looks good doing it! Tip for newer subscribers: if RC gets an intuition about something but can't explain it, trust him anyways. He's not always right, but more often than not he is, and you will thank him for his insight afterwards.

This Gainwell breakout might be the last straw for Miles Sanders (7-13-0, 3-43-0/3). I'm not saying Sanders is a bad player, but what I am saying is you cannot really tell him and Gainwell apart on the field. There's no good reason why Sanders should dominate the touches at this point. Gainwell is going to be involved, and I particularly like that they have him working a lot as a WR, taking bubble/tunnell screens from out wide. It's a nice, safe throw and he is really good at them. If you're desperate at RB Gainwell is one of the best available options to try and get some cheap points, but don't expect more than RB3 work most weeks.

--I'm not even going to talk about Mahomes and Hill at this point. Anyone that subscribes to FFM knows those are our two most widely owned players thanks to RC browbeating us into grabbing them years ago (and picking them up every year in redraft even as most other analysts tried to tell you to fade them, that they were overpriced). These type games, from Hill especially, are why we tolerate the down weeks like last week. Because occasionally he just goes completely off and wins your matchup by himself.

--Two weeks ago I told everyone not to panic about Clyde Edwards-Helaire (14-102-0, 2-12-1/3). You're welcome. This week might be rough against a very good Buffalo run defense, but after that he's mostly golden. Yes, there will be dud weeks like there is with anyone not named McCaffrey, but I still maintain that CEH is a late RB1 or RB1.5 because of his role and the scoring opportunities of this offense. If they ever start giving him more goal line opportunities he could go even higher.

IDP Notes

--Yet another item RC was way ahead of the crowd on...Javon Hargrave (6 tackles, 1 sack) is playing out of his mind. He's averaging 6 tackles a game and 1.25 sacks a game so far. Defensive tackles not named Aaron Donald don't put up those kinds of numbers. Unbelievable performance by Hargrave so far. I hope he gets the recognition he deserves soon.

--I thought former Viking Eric Wilson (11 tackles, 1 pd) would lead the Eagles in tackles this year, and he's doing a great job, but it's actually Alex Singleton (9 tackles) that's leading the way with 38 so far. Guys like this are why you don't have to worry about getting Darius Leonard at LB in your IDP drafts. There are plenty of unheralded guys piling up tackle counts all over.

--You know who else is playing fantastic football and getting overlooked (as usual)? Daniel Sorensen (9 tackles). He's been an integral and valuable part of this defense for years, and yet it's Tyrann Mathieu that always seems to get the credit. Sorensen is the better safety by far and is on fire the last three games with 26 total tackles.

Snap Counts of Interest

68 = DeVonta Smith

52 = Jalen Reagor

43 = Quez Watkins

55 = Dallas Goedert

37 = Zach Ertz

47 = Miles Sanders

29 = Kenneth Gainwell

R.C. Fischer

FFM

08 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Bears 24, Lions 14

The Bears won this game, but it wasn’t a great win. The Lions aren’t very good…but Detroit was just as good if not better. Get this… The Lions had goal-to-go the first three drives of the game for them on offense and walked away with zero points. To end the game, trying to come back, they got down to goal to go again…and left with zero points. Nine total drives for Detroit…two TDs and 4 failed goal-to-go events.

Saying the Bears were lucky to win this game is an insult to the word ‘lucky’. This is a terrible Chicago team…one that should be (0-4) and firing it’s coach and GM, but they’ve gotten two lucky wins and everyone is safe…for now. The Bears will finish under .500 and people will be fired.

The Lions are (0-4), but they could be (2-2). Looking at their schedule ahead…it will be a long time before they win a game, probably. Although, they play tough every week and will probably surprise some team soon. However, their O-Line is falling apart due to injuries…and that’s been their one strength. A tailspin could be coming with a tough schedule ahead.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- David Montgomery (23-106-2) is expected out for 3-5 weeks, but I think that will be more on the 5+ weeks side. Damien Williams (8-55-1, 2-15-0/2), and he looks fine. It’s not a great O-Line to work behind but DW should work fine for Fantasy…looks like an RB2-3 that leans more RB2.

 -- Another Justin Fields (11-17 for 209 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) start where he does not look very good. He’s not ready yet, but Chicago is doing the right thing by pushing him as the starting QB…he needs to sink or swim. He’s probably going to sink in 2021…as the media/fans get what they want, and then it won’t work like a wonderful Disney tale…so, they’ll blame Matt Nagy for them not getting the outcomes they dreamed up, and that will get him fired.

 -- There is one connection working for Fields…and that’s Darnell Mooney (5-125-0/7). Mooney is fantastic and had nearly half of Fields completed passes in this game…and some of them were highlight reel catches, or Fields would have really put up a stinker. There is something about Fields-to-Mooney, but I don’t trust the Fields part that much…but love the Mooney part. https://youtu.be/zqfRsu0L68c

 -- The best WR for Fantasy, on either team, right now is Kalif Raymond (3-46-2/8). The Lions don’t have much at WR, so Raymond is the best weapon and seeing nice targets and production. He had two TDs in this game…it was almost 3…and nearly 4.

He was our ‘outta nowhere’ WR of the week last week, and well…that worked. But still the masses don’t believe. I’d start believing if you can, if you have room on your roster. Why are you holding Bryan Edwards and leaving Raymond sitting out there?

Raymond is the Lions very poor man’s Tyreek Hill…but more like Deonte Harris, only not as injury prone and in a higher volume passing game right now.

 -- Jared Goff (24-38 for 299 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is SO TERRIBLE…he’s averaging 275.0 passing yards and has 7 TDs/2 INTs and completing 68%+ of his passes so far this season…so bad…and doing so with junk WRs.

 -- D’Andre Swift (8-16-0, 4-33-0/6) is flowing up and down according to game script and hot hand. He’s getting the touches. Some weeks it hits, others it’s a ‘meh’…like most RBs outside the big 5 or so top guys for FF. In PPR, Swift is an RB1 hopeful as we go on catch volume. But not a slam dunk RB1, just a speculative/hopeful one.

 -- Just watching T.J. Hockenson (4-42-0/8) here…he’s so overrated. He’s randomly as good as the 6-20 guys fighting for the #6-20 best TEs in FF. He’s never going to be a top 3 Fantasy TE guy with this offense.

 -- The Bears added Robert Quinn (5 tackles, 1 sack) in 2020 offseason, and I thought he was nearly done in the NFL after a humdrum 2020. Well…he’s got at least a half a sack in every game this season…4.5 sacks so far. He’s been more productive than Khalil Mack (1 tackles, 1 sack).

Snap Counts of Interest:

41 = Mooney

40 = A Rob

29 = Goodwin

16 = Byrd

62 = Cephus

53 = Raymond

51 = St Brown

20 = Trinity

52 = Swift

21 = Jamaal