- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Raiders 34, Saints 24
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I hope I can save some typing off my fingers with this one…it shouldn’t take too long to review.
Alvin Kamara faced Darren Waller in the Week 2 MNF game, and Waller won. Good night. Thanks for coming.
Two head coaching geniuses, long time football minds…and all they got is every play to Jacobs/Waller v. every play to Kamara/Thomas. Only Thomas was out so the Jacobs/Waller side won. The Saints never adjusted to the Waller onslaught and got beat. Good thing the Saints kept their top corner on WRs that the Raiders never throw to in 2020.
The Raiders are a playoff team. A team no one is going to want to play. Not the best team or a title team, but a good team. Jon Gruden is doing a very good job. Difficult schedule ahead (at NE, BUF, at KC next 3 weeks) but Vegas should be in the wild card hunt all season (and get one).
The Saints are good but fading. I think they may have peaked and are in decline. Still good but by the time we get to 2021, I don’t know that they’ll have the juice to get over the hump. This is their last stand/gasp season with Drew Brees. They are going to fight the Bucs all the way to the end for the NFC South title. If the Saints lose to Green Bay this week…some panic might start to set in.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I already stated the obvious…everything for FF with these two teams is Jacobs/Waller and Kamara/Thomas. Not much else to discuss at the other positions.
If Josh Jacobs (27-88-0, 3-17-0/3) is out this week…Devontae Booker (3-0-0, 1-6-0/1) would split with Jalen Richard (2-26-1)…and it wouldn’t be that excited on either, but it’s something if in need. Booker could grind a decent day with 15+ carries. I think Jacobs is just getting extra rest on a short week.
-- The Raiders will not throw to their WRs unless they absolutely have to, and they hope never to do so apparently, so for that reason…’I’m out’ on Bryan Edwards (2-42-0/2) for redraft 2020. He will have his day to come and become a ‘playa’ but not right now.
He led all non-Waller Raiders in targets in this game…that’s good news, with the bad news being he had just 2 targets.
However, you did see a glimpse of what he brings to the table on his second catch and run play. He doesn’t look ready for a big role yet, he looked surprised when the ball comes his way, because likely they never throw to WRs in practice either. Someday…not today.
Ditto opinion on Henry Ruggs.
-- Rookie TE Adam Trautman (1-17-0/1) got his first catch of his career. I watched his play over a few times – he just looks so stiff moving around the field. I just get a bad feeling on him.
-- Tre’Quan Smith (5-86-0/7) is good for the moment but he’ll disappear when Michael Thomas returns. Brees never works the 2nd (or 3rd-4th-5th) WR all that well for FF. Smith saw more action with Thomas out. With Brees’s arm strength in decline…Tre’Quan being a deep ball receiver…not a good match at this time. Sell him hot when you can.
-- The Raiders-DST is interesting…
A lot of talent accumulating, and man do they have some punishing hitters in the secondary. This might be an emerging DST in 2021, but maybe useful on good matchups this year – like Weeks 8-9-10 CLE-LAC-DEN.
Their current problem is that some of their DBs are so wanting to hit people, they cheat up off the snap and they’re going to get beat deep by a nice deep ball thrower. Mahomes-Hill may go for 500 yards each against them Week 5.
SAF Jonathan Abram (4 tackles, 1 PD) is literally going to kill someone one of these days. Every tackle he makes is accidental homicide potential.
The guy who stuck WAY out to me in this game…rookie CB Damon Arnette (7 tackles). He plays corner like a Pro Bowl safety already (he tackles everything in sight, with impunity)…but he also covers like a safety mentality as well. If Drew Brees had his old magic back, he would have air raided Arnette’s constant cheating up, and up in WR’s faces and getting pushed away off the snap too much and losing 2-3 steps in coverage every other time because he’s trying to fight the WR up close. I bet Belichick notices it for Week 3…which means Damiere Byrd is going to cash in on a long TD this week…if I’m right.
Where has Maxx Crosby (2 tackles, 1 PD) been? Slow start for him after a hot finish last year. Teams know who he is now…they’re also holding every pass rusher every other play these days because holding got legalized in the offseason in case you missed it. Some teams haven’t even been called for holding yet this year, I heard somewhere this morning. Seriously.
-- I thought the Saints-DST was supposed to be so special? Well, they got it handed to them this game. They are good but never adjusted for Darren Waller and got thumped by it. Versus Green Bay this week? I don’t know…if Davante Adams is ready then this looks shaky too.
The Saints-DST perks up Weeks 7-8 with matchups vs. CAR and at CHI…but mostly they have so-so or bad matchups all season.
-- Daniel Carlson (2/2 FGs, 4/4 XPs) dropped a 54-yard bomb in this game…his second 50+ yard FG this season already. I loved this kicker coming out of college. He might be finally coming into his own. He has ‘best kicker in the NFL’ type traits, I think. Whether it happens this year, we’ll see. He’s #3 in FF PK scoring right now.
Snap Counts of Interest:
49 = Ruggs
49 = Edwards
40 = Renfrow
32 = Moreau
26 = Witten
18 = Zay Jones
41 = Kamara
16 = Latavius
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Chiefs 23, Chargers 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Chargers played a perfect underdog, unorthodox role of a game here to try and outlast /rope-a-dope the Chiefs. It almost worked, but one thing you can always bet on – Anthony Lynn will find a way to ruin anything. Possibly the single worst head coach in the NFL. He may be a gem of a human and smart as a whip, I have no idea. I just watch his teams, his coaching decisions, and his press conferences and he’s so self-assured of his absolutely lunacy that it’s breathtaking to behold.
Adam Gase is getting a reprieve as the worst coach in the NFL the more Anthony Lynn says words to the media. Check out his answer to the question presented when this video opens up: https://youtu.be/g4PmgymlCoo?t=104
Way to pump up your QB who almost pulled off a miracle win over the defending champs!!! Anthony Lynn was PAINED to say something nice or even neutral about Justin Herbert. He was gritting his teeth and trying to find neutral niceties to move on from the subject. However, when he talks about Tyrod Taylor, he beams with pride…and you’re not allowed to question it.
No one could watch Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert play football and seriously choose Tyrod Taylor. Not only did Lynn do that – he’ll go back to Tyrod even if the Chargers win 2-3-4-5 games in a row with Herbert. This team, this offense is 100x better with Herbert, rookie and all. You cannot go with Tyrod Taylor and be a serious football mind. It’s not the 1980’s and 1990’s…rookie QBs aren’t the screw up of the time Anthony Lynn played football. Get the hell with the times, man!!!
Anthony Lynn will absolutely go with Tyrod Taylor the moment he can, and the more people complain about it…the more he will do it because you’re not going to tell him what to do, you’re an idiot.
…and if you don’t think he’s capable of doing the same jamming Justin Jackson back in over Joshua Kelley – then you are the idiot he thinks you are. You don’t understand football like he does.
The early voting for NFL MVP through two weeks…
#3) Kyler Murray
#2) Russell Wilson
#1) The Chargers team doctor
That’s callous, but football-wise…it’s truth. Tyrod Taylor looked awful against the vaunted defense of the Cincinnati Bengals. He was the worst QB that I saw on tape Week 1. He’s a joke in today’s era. Dwayne Haskins has more appeal. Not throwing interceptions is nice but it doesn’t mean you’re a great QB if you do nothing else but NOT throw INTs.
If I were Justin Jackson, I wouldn’t get near the trainer’s room…the team doc isn’t playing around. He knows who needs to be playing and who doesn’t, apparently.
Anthony Lynn better have a wine taster at his disposal at all team meals.
The Chargers could be (2-0) right now. Really, they should be (0-2). They should’ve lost to the Bengals...it was a fluke/weak win. Don’t be so sure Lynn won’t lose to Carolina this week. LAC should beat CAR and then go on to lose two in a row at TB, at NO. They’ll be (2-3) and likely on their way to (8-8) at best the way their schedule looks.
Another week in 2020, and another game the Chiefs mail in. Fortunately, they woke up and got serious when they started losing control of the game in the 4th-quarter. We’ll see if the Chiefs decide to play a game seriously from kickoff on against the Ravens this week. The Ravens ain’t the Chargers…Baltimore will beat the brakes off the Chiefs if they lollygag into this one. At Baltimore on a Monday Night, I suspect the Chiefs will come out to play.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The shocking debut of Justin Herbert (22-33 for 311 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 4-18-1) happened. No one saw it coming. At first, no one knew why. Tony Romo spent the first 5-10 minutes talking about the savvy of Anthony Lynn and him not being afraid to make bold moves, etc. – only to find out Tyrod was hurt last second was the reason.
Herbert looked so unfazed in his debut. Today’s rookies think the NFL is child’s play. The talented rookies do…that is. Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert already look like long time starters in their first game. This rookie QB wave of nice performance is going to push Tua Tagovailoa in as a starter ASAP – but I’m not sure Tua is near as ready or as talented as Burrow-Herbert. I very much think he is not, and the mainstream football media/scouting community is going to take a slap in the face on it. Tua was their unquestioned top guy at QB all along.
Herbert is decent for fantasy, but has some upside capped in an Anthony Lynn offense. Herbert probably fully can’t get unleashed until Lynn is gone, and that probably won’t happen for years. A bad fit/pairing of these two…unless Lynn is willing to change.
The only change Lynn wants is to change Herbert out for Tyrod Taylor.
-- With Herbert starting…
Keenan Allen (7-96-0/10) goes back to being a top 15-20 WR for fantasy.
Hunter Henry (6-83-0/8) is viable as a TE1.
Mike Williams (2-14-0/4) drops way down because Herbert doesn’t have to force things to him when he’s never open. Herbert will find what’s open and not just panic and float balloons to Williams like Tyrod.
Reverse all these statements when/if Tyrod returns.
-- Josh Kelley (23-64-0, 2-49-0/3) got a lot of carries this game… Anytime a fantasy GM sees 20+ carries, their heart skips a beat. Actually, it’s 20+ carries and ‘is a rookie’ that sends heart’s a flutter -- because Frank Gore had about this same game/stat line this week and no one cared.
Anthony Lynn is going to start/use/split two running backs. He tells us this all the time, any chance he gets. Austin Ekeler (16-93-0, 4-55-0/4) is his guy and Kelley is there as ‘1b’, for now.
If Ekeler goes down, Justin Jackson will split with Kelley in some way.
Most games it will be a 60/40 split with Ekeler-Kelley, with a commitment to stick to the run no matter what. Kelley will be 10-15 carries and 0-4 targets a game with Herbert…and 10-15 carries with 0-2 targets per game with Tyrod, as long as Ekeler is there.
There will be more running room for the RBs with Herbert at QB, because teams do not fear Tyrod…and thus crowd up on the run game.
There will be more targets to the RBs with Herbert, because Herbert knows how to play QB…Tyrod looks to float balloons downfield or scramble or throw passes blindly into crowds. He looks at one receiver and throws, and it’s normally not any check downs because Tyrod doesn’t have time to check down because he treats the ball as a hot potato to get rid of to a predetermined receiver before the snap.
Your Kelley value is safe with Herbert, but it’s limited most weeks. RB2 with some RB1 and RB3 weeks. His value drops with Tyrod to RB2-3 more times than not.
-- What’s funny about watching Kelley in this game and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (10-38-0, 6-32-0/8) is you couldn’t tell which one was better…both look very similarly good. But one was drafted in the 1st-round because he was seen on TV a lot. The other drafted 4th-round because ‘who watches PAC 12 football anyway?’
Great scouting logic and study again by the NFL.
-- Would I bench Mahomes-Tyreek against the Ravens this week? Probably not. I don’t ever bench Tyreek.
Patrick Mahomes (24-47 for 302 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 6-54-0)…I would consider if I had the right 2nd QB in the right matchup. But mostly, you can’t sit Mahomes unless a 4pts pass TD only QB scoring league. Then you can get friskier in a matchup where the Ravens defense is very good + their offense could hold the ball for 40 minutes and be a repeat pattern of this LAC game.
-- I was watching Chiefs rookie DE Michael Danna (3 tackles, 1 sack) work in this game…he’s a pretty solid rookie getting decent playing time right off the bat. About 50% of the snaps played. I don’t know that he’s a star, but he’s out of the gates pretty well for a rookie.
On the subject of KC DLs…Tanoh Kpassagnon (4 tackles, 1 PD), the extra tall D-End, played 94% of the snaps in this game. 83% last week…that’s pretty radical for a defensive end who is usually rotational. No big numbers yet, but he’s playing a lot.
-- How good (or not) is the Chargers’ defense?
#5 in points allowed (and having just played/handled KC pretty well)
#11 best in yards per play allowed.
#9 in QB hits.
Middle of the pack in run defense, sacks, 3rd-down % allowed.
Two legit top cover corners. A legit linebacker in the middle now. Good D-Line. It’s a good unit overall.
Facing Teddy this week is going to be favorable.
At TB, at NO could be shaky, or could be not-so-bad. Brady and Brees aren’t going to like this pressure. Not a great Weeks 4-5 play but do-able. Then Weeks 6-7 with NYJ-MIA is great if you can get to it.
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = Ekeler
43 = Kelley
48 = Edwards-Helaire
15 = D Thompson
10 = D Williams
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Rams 37, Eagles 19
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Rams stormed out to a 21-3 early 2nd-quarter lead and it looked like a blowout was at hand. However, the Eagles climbed back into – cutting the lead to 24-19 early 4th-quarter. The Rams stepped on the accelerator again and put Philly away 37-19.
The Rams are just playing fundamental football. Jared Goff is being smart. The Rams defense has been solid. They are getting up quickly in games and letting the opposing team make the mistakes. They are not great, but they are good…and winning. A hiccup might come this week against another sound team – the Bills. Buffalo is not likely to be outsmarted or outhustled by the Rams.
The Eagles are playing for their lives this week. If they lose to the Bengals and fall to (0-3) there may be a different kind of rioting in Philadelphia. They face at SF, at PIT, BAL Weeks 4-5-6. The Eagles are staring at a 1-5/0-6 start. Get your Jalen Hurts lottery tickets ready to go.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let me talk about the five RBs involved in this game, and I’ll list them in reverse order of best-talent-to-worst-talent…so, we start with the least talented. This doesn’t mean worst/least for FF…just my scouting eye best and worst on-field talents…
#5) Cam Akers (3-13-0/5) – He’s not terrible, but he’s very inexperienced and making the least impact right now. He may miss a week or two with his rib injury.
#4) Malcolm Brown (11-47-0) – Solid, experienced but his FF-value goes up in smoke when Darrell Henderson got his shot.
#3) Miles Sanders (20-95-1, 3-36-0/7) – He’s a perfectly fine RB but he’s not a stud or star…he's a guy getting carries for emotional reasons. They ‘love’ him. The media has pushed him so hard everyone just assumes he’s great. Every time I watch him, I walk away unimpressed. Not that he isn’t worthy of the NFL, but he should not be the centerpiece of an NFL offense. The Eagles have done this to themselves.
Sanders will be fine, probably great for FF because the Eagles have nothing else. They’re all-in on a ‘C’ grade RB.
#2) Boston Scott (4-19-0, 3-24-0/3) – He should be in a 50/50 split with Sanders but isn’t. Every time I watch an Eagles game and see Scott running inside, I wonder why Scott isn’t the clear starter over Sanders. Scott, for his size, is a tough runner…but also very fleet of foot, really fleet of foot. I’d almost consider him #1 here.
The Eagles don’t see him that way so all you can do is hold/wait for a Sanders injury. Scott is the kind of back that will get overlooked forever, only given a chance if injury forces it.
#1) Darrell Henderson (12-81-1, 2-4-0-0/3) – Speaking of the kind of back that gets overlooked forever…
It was a good week for my scouting career…we saw Kyler and Diontae really come into their own Week 2 and show that they are real. I went back and looked and saw my CFM scouting grades re-remembered we had Chase Claypool as the #1 most talented/highest-graded NFL WR prospect for the 2020 NFL Draft…and no one else would have had him close to that, and it seemed silly a few weeks/months ago. How about now? Then there was the unplanned emergence of Darrell Henderson here. It’s been a good week even if all my fantasy players are getting hurt/gone for the season.
If Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown don’t get hurt here…Henderson stays buried. But they both got hurt, and Henderson finally got extra work…and a quasi-star was born. Henderson has some of the traits of Boston Scott, only Hendo is bigger and stronger/tougher. Henderson is like if peak Devonta Freeman was a great athlete too – smaller/compact brick wall runner but with speed and hops.
Henderson had big/long runs in this game, he had nice screen pass plays, he caught long passes down the field, he blew up defenders for second chance yards (and for his TD). He did it all in 29 snaps (42%) of the game played.
In a normal world, this would mean Henderson is in line for more work or the starting role going forward. But this is the NFL, and Cam Akers is supposed to be a magical unicorn rookie…and the Rams can’t have you knowing they valued Akers more than Henderson to start 2020. So, you think this is the beginning of a DH uprising…but we’ll see. It will be eventually…just not willingly or quickly.
If Akers plays, Henderson might get 3-4 touches and comments after the game that ‘we gotta get Henderson the ball more’ (the kiss of death). If Akers is out, then Henderson gets another serious shot to steal all the gold here and force the Rams to make him the main guy (whether he starts or not).
Henderson’s day is coming, but how fast depends upon Akers’ ribs. I’d guess the Rams would hold Akers out this week…why wouldn’t they? If so, get excited for DH…except Buffalo has a high-ranked run defense…except they’ve played the two worst run teams in the league to get there so far. My Henderson rankings are based around Akers playing or not.
Outside of that…take a bow – Darrell Henderson is no longer a ‘concept’. He is real. It really happened Week 2…and he’s still inexperienced/has upside, much upside to run.
-- So, speaking of nice FFM moments…Tyler Higbee (5-54-3/5) scored 3 TDs this week. I didn’t predict Higbee would be a star coming out of college, I was just willing to take the ride Higbee was showing us he could go on late last season.
Five breakout performances last year + his two games this year…Higbee’s last 7 games:
7.3 rec., 88.0 yards, 0.58 TDs per game
12.2 FF PPG/19.5 PPR PPG for fantasy in that time span – both these FF PPG numbers would have been #1 with a bullet in the 2019 season among TEs.
So far this season, he’s #3 in non-PPR, #5 in PPR PPG among TEs…pushed by the huge Week 2.
But what about the low targeting? Targeting is nice, but I like completions/catches better. Sometimes a lot of targeting is just a lot of errant throwing. I’d like high catches AND high targets, but I don’t want to thumb my nose at good/high catches/yards/TDs because I’m whining about targets. Logan Thomas gets more targets, but will he score for FF off them because of Haskins misfirings?
Higbee is a strong TE1 this season, we’ll see how strong as we go.
-- I was wrong about Van Jefferson (4-45-0/5). I thought he’d struggle to transition to the NFL more than he has. I thought he might be a bit too soft as a receiver. I think he might struggle with better coverage/attention but he’s getting to be the under-the-radar guy for LAR and it works OK.
Jefferson’s rise takes food out of the mouths of Woods-Kupp, just enough to throw back to WR2s not WR1s.
-- Jared Goff (20-27 for 267 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) numbers since the Higbee uprising/offensive change to the passing game:
14 TDs/5 INTs…2.0 TDs per game and 312.1 yards passing per game.
This is a guy the media/fantasy experts have hated for years. I don’t know why.
There are better FF QBs for sure, but Goff is not a dud or anything.
…and if anyone has a question of the better QB/draft pick…Goff or Wentz (26-432 for 242 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) – then you’re a fool.
-- If/when I’m right about Jalen Hurts going to QB over Wentz, several things are going to change/happen that will shake some FF landscapes.
If the Eagles fall to (1-5) or possibly if they lose to Cincy this week, and Hurts takes over whenever, then…
1) Hurts becomes an interesting QB in 4pts per pass TD leagues…like a 200 +/- yards passing, a passing TD, 15 rushes for 50-80 yards and TDs a game type of QB for FF. A small-scale Lamar.
This change could happen just to save the O-Line issues…it’s not fair to Wentz to try and work behind it and their terrible WRs.
2) We don’t know what WRs, if any, would be viable with Hurts. Reagor would have made the most sense.
3) If Philly goes down, Zach Ertz could be traded…and his value then drops for FF.
Dallas Goedert would be a winner from Ertz gone, for sure, except Hurts is not going to be a high-volume passer. Goedert might be a junior Mark Andrews for junior-Lamar…but that’s better for non-PPR, shakier for PPR (at a high level).
If Philly loses to Cincy this week, buckle up for the fireworks and winds of change starting to blow.
4) It won’t help Miles Sanders reach new heights as Hurts takes ground game and short TDs away. Hurts is better built to be an NFL tail back than Sanders.
-- Micah Kizer (15 tackles, 1 PD, 1 FF) looks solid for LAR as their new ILB. He works fine. But for FF it was aces last week. He’s averaging 11.0 total tackles per game so far and is #4 in IDP PPG among LBs so far this season.
-- The Rams-DST has allowed 17 and 19 points to opponents so far – that’s good…3rd-best in the NFL. But for FF, they are #21 in sacks and are #18 in yards allowed. They are playing safe/sound football without a lot of FF scoring fireworks so far. The Philly matchup was supposed to be fireworks for sacks but they got none (and no TFLs)…and just 3 QB hits.
Snap Counts of Interest:
67 = Ertz
63 = Goedert
60 = Reagor
55 = DeSean
23 = JJAW
13 = Ward
03 = Jalen Hurts
55 = Sanders
13 = Scott
59 = Higbee
59 = Kupp
59 = Woods
42 = JReynolds
26 = Van Jefferson
37 = M Brown
29 = D Henderson
03 = Akers
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Cardinals 30, Washington 15
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Cardinals were toying with the Football Team all game…it was 27-3 early into the 4th-quarter with no threat of a Washington comeback. Washington added two late garbage TDs, because that’s the only time Haskins can complete passes to his own team (is when the defense is in prevent). It was 30-15 final, 15-point win that was more like a 25+ point gap between the teams.
Arizona did the same thing to Washington they did to San Fran Week 1…quick passes to neutralize the pass rush with Kyler running a lot to put them on their heels.
Washington couldn’t do what they did Week 1…against Philly they logged 28 combined QB Hits + TFLs in the game, amounts of 20+ I rarely ever see in games. In this game, just 6 combined QB Hits + TFLs. They only hit Kyler two times. When Kyler has time…it’s over. Kyler is manufacturing time with his feet and defenses are either dying via the quick pass and/or purposeful run when they try to rush, or when they sit back to worry about Kyler running then Murray just starts picking them apart through the air.
Kyler is playing MVP ball right now.
Arizona is very likely to be (5-0) ahead…DET, at CAR, at NYJ… three of the worst teams in the NFL. Then the schedule gets serious, but the way Arizona is playing they have a great shot at 10-6 or better, and an NFC West division title now that the 49ers are falling apart. Long way to go though.
Washington is going nowhere until they pull Dwayne Haskins, which is a shame they don’t know because they could contend for the NFC East title with Alex Smith.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Of course, we gotta talk Kyler (26-38 for 286 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 8-67-2)…
I already touched on what he’s doing this year to go to another level – purposefully running which is changing defensive pressure. If you come after him, he’s taking off or quick passing. If you lay back, he will eat you alive as a passer.
He could be the best dual threat QB of all-time at the rate he’s going. Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson are more lethal runners, but Kyler is an incredible passer from the pocket on a much higher level than Vick or Lamar…although Lamar can flick it like no one’s business. Lamar and Kyler are going to change football forever…or they’re the first of many to come like them.
Last year, Kyler didn’t run on purpose as much and didn’t have time to throw as needed…not this year. And if he can blow through SF and WAS high pressure fronts, he’s going to destroy DET-CAR-NYJ the next three weeks…if he wants to (please don’t just handoff and walk away with quiet wins…GO FOR THE FF JUGULAR!!).
Couple side notes on Kyler here…
*Just missed/left on the table another 30-70 yards passing. Some near miss bombs and an overthrow or two. Nothing egregious…just noting there was almost a crazy good day here.
*Also, Kyler ran for a TD first drive and it got called back for some BS penalty…so, he passed for the TD a few plays later. Could’ve been another small FF point boost in standard leagues.
-- Because Kyler is taking over the run game, it’s drying up things for Kenyan Drake (20-86-0, 2-9-0/2). Not as many TD runs available to Drake and Kyler isn’t much for a dump-off-to-RB passing game. Drake is going to be an RB2 through this season with more RB3 moments than RB1 ones, I’m afraid, for KD owners. But he’ll be stable.
-- Kyler either runs it or throws to DeAndre Hopkins (8-68-1/9)…I’m not sure there has been another play besides those for Arizona. On those rare other plays…
Christian Kirk (2-57-0/4) is relegated to deep ball shot guy. He’s not involved otherwise. There will be a game soon where Kirk goes 4-127-1 or something like it…where he makes some big catches/deep balls and makes hay out of it but over time he’ll just be 1-3 catches per game and hoping for a homerun ball to land his way. He might as well not even exist for FF right now. When he has his big game…you’ll have him on your bench.
Andy Isabella (2-67-0/2) is better than Kirk in that role, and he’s starting to see more time and looks. He looks fantastic. He could be a star WR – but not on this team. He’s just a role player.
I think Arizona will trade Kirk and could elevate Isabella to his role before the trade deadline. Where will Kirk go? Who knows? There could be so many injuries to deal with between now and then. Watch out for the Saints…but likely Arizona would want to trade him out of the NFC. Perhaps the Colts should take a look. Maybe the Browns will trade OBJ for Kirk…
Dan Arnold (2-26-0/4) was supposed to be so key in this offense. He’s playing a lot, but like anyone not named DeAndre Hopkins…there aren't many on-Hopkins touches to deal with regularly. He’s a TE2/bye week flyer.
-- Antonio Gibson (13-55-1, 1-0-0/2) still looks a bit sketchy as a lead RB. I mean, physically he looks great/dominant. When he has space he’s really working well. I see Gibson getting more comfortable two weeks in, but there’s still work to do.
The Washington RB that most impressed me here…J.D. McKissic (8-57-0). He got real running plays on purpose and looked like a Phillip Lindsay/Austin Ekeler type runner. He was gashing Arizona. Why they didn’t stick with him more is always ‘the NFL’…they’re allergic to successful things. Nothing gets in the way of their game plan, not even things working well.
Don’t lose sight of McKissic. He might rise up into a 6-10 carry, couple of targets a game guy after this showing. And if Alex Smith (or Kyle Allen) ever take over…his PPR effectiveness will jump dramatically.
-- Steven Sims (3-53-0/5) is so good…and he’s so going to waste with Dwayne Haskins. Again, nothing will get in the way of the NFL ‘plan’. Alex Smith or Kyle Allen (or Case Keenum) could really help manage this young team and possibly make a run at the NFC East title with their defensive pressure. But no chance of that with Haskins. Sims goes to waste as a WR3-4 until a change is made, a week-to-week flyer hoping he gets his big play. He almost got them here, but didn’t.
A QB change is likely in a few weeks, so if you can hold on until then (in deeper leagues)…
-- Haskins does throw to Logan Thomas (4-26-0/9) a lot, but don’t let the lofty targets fool you…I think Haskins is so awful at QB he feels better seeing the tallest guy on the field and throwing it to him because Haskins cannot read defenses or things under any pressure, he’s a ‘see quick and throw’, whether covered or not. Thomas stands out to Haskins’ eyes to throw to because he stands out height-wise.
Just a theory…
…that I’m right about. I’ve seen it many times before.
Thomas is very dicey for FF consistency.
-- How about that Arizona-DST? #10 DST in fantasy right now. They have Stafford-Teddy-Darnold ahead. Might be useable. I don’t love the Stafford or Teddy matchups a super amount, but plausible.
De’Vondre Campbell (10 tackles, 2 TFLs, 2 PDs) is the early Defensive Player of the Year in my book (not in anyone else’s). He’s changed the landscape of the linebackers and covering TEs…not Isaiah Simmons, who barely plays and was a wasted draft pick opportunity.
Campbell is averaging 8.5 total tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 1.0 PDs per game.
Chris Banjo (9 tackles) has been fantastic as well. He’s averaging 7.5 total tackles per game as the starting safety now.
-- What about the vaunted Washington-DST? So good Week 1…so rough here. That’s why I wasn’t gung ho going into last week’s games with WASH.
Like I said in the intro…Kyler neutralized the pass rushers like a snake charmer. It’s a better matchup for the FC in Week 3 at CLE. Then Week 4 vs. BAL is a potential nightmare.
They are going to be an up and down streamer all year. We still don’t know how good they are because it’s an epic D-Line and a disaster linebacker group. They almost cancel each other out like when I eat a giant piece of my wife’s famous cheesecake and drink a Diet Dr. Pepper with it…the diet soda cancels out the calories from the cake, right?
Snap Counts of Interest:
75 = Hopkins
61 = Fitz
47 = Kirk
14 = Isabella
50 = Drake
27 = Edmonds
42 = Gibson
29 = McKissic
01 = Barber
07 = Isaiah Simmons
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: 49ers 31, Jets 13
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I thought the Jets could make a ‘last stand’ here and put up a good showing, in order to fight back at all the mass negativity from this whole organization/franchise/fan base – the Jets play hard on defense and I thought against a wounded 49ers team (who would get more wounded in game) they could put up a fight and try to cover the spread.
The first play of the game was a simple sweep to the right and Raheem Mostert went untouched right through blocking and was off to the races. The game was over right then and there. The Jets scuffled a bit to cut it to 7-3, and it hung there for a little bit, but then the floodgates opened and it was 21-3 SF at the half and eventually 31-6 before a late garbage TD made it 31-13. The score didn’t indicate how bad a beating this was.
The 49ers took care of business, but also lost Nick Bosa, two starting RBs, another D-Lineman, and their QB in the game – and they still cruised to victory with ease. Hard to know how good or in peril the 49ers are because the Jets are not much of a litmus test. Fortunately, the 49ers have a favorable schedule the next few weeks before it turns brutal. The 49ers could be 3-2/4-1 before the schedule turns dark and then they may lose five in-a-row Weeks 6-10 if they are getting more and more banged up, and thus plummet to the bottom of the NFC West. They’ll be lucky to be (5-5) by their Week 11 BYE at this injury rate, more likely they are (4-6). Kyle Shanahan deserves a medal if they get to (6-4+)
The Jets are done. They’ve lost the one thing they had going for them – a salty run defense. They decided to elevate old Alec Ogletree from the practice squad and start him at ILB…and he was the reason for the 80-yard opening TD run, and most every big run/play you could find #52 lollygagging or out of position. I think he was doing what Mark Barron did with the Steelers last year…trying to stay out of plays/contact but make it look like he was trying…and collect some paychecks. He was always late to plays or found a blocker to tie up with. He single handedly killed them. If they don’t cut him by Week 3 gameday, bet against the Jets this week because they are playing 11-on-10 football – and they aren’t good enough to cover that up.
The Jets have a chance to go winless this year, it’s that bad. If they don’t win Week 4 TNF hosting Denver, they will likely start the season (0-9). They can’t win but 2-3 games tops this year. The GM is in the head coach’s pocket, so neither are going anywhere for at least another year.
May I remind the class – this is the Manning’s (Peyton mostly and Eli) fault. Stick to commercials boys, because you know nothing about QBs or head coaches. The Manning’s talked NYG into Daniel Jones…they also talked NYJ into Adam Gase…and Gase hiring is a nuclear bomb to any hope at success. The Manning-based decisions have helped wreck the two NY franchises. Is it a diabolical plot by the Manning’s to destroy NY football? It’s working!!
Enjoy the upcoming years when Peyton Manning is a highly paid TV analyst and then GM for a team.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Jerick McKinnon (3-77-1, 0-0-0/1) had a day, but on just three carries and no catches. He looked cool, but again…Jets #52 Alec Ogletree was there to help on his biggest play – that ridiculous 3rd & 30+ run of 55-yards (untouched ‘til the end).
With Mostert-Coleman down, McKinnon is set to be the lead back Week 3…and possibly Weeks 4-5 as well.
McKinnon looks fine. Not necessarily like his old, amazing self…but still very good/reasonable. I don’t know if the 49ers want to push him too hard if they don’t have to (coming off two years out of football and multiple injuries). Considering they have some winnable games ahead, there will probably be a Jeff Wilson (2-3-0)/McKinnon split coming. The 49ers are comfortable with Wilson. He’s not that great and he’ll be like a 10 +/- carries and 1-4 targets a game projection…and if the game gets out of hand you’ll see some Wilson more than McKinnon – and you’ll see JaMycal Hasty (DNP) getting extended practice time in garbage time.
Raheem Mostert has a MCL sprain and that tends to be a multi-week issue, that he may try to come back to early from and risk being ineffective with. Mostert didn’t get the contract he was looking for from SF, so I suspect he will take as long as he needs until he is 100%. No need for him to rush back…he’s in a kinda contract year. Bad performance on tape won’t help him in a few months.
It will likely be McKinnon/Wilson for two weeks minimum and up to 3-4 weeks max.
If you got McKinnon, it’s not crazy for you to go explore a ‘sell high’. Like higher than you think because people are desperate.
-- Or you could try to FF-invest in the lovely disaster that is the Jets backfield. I thought Miami was messed up in the backfield…at least they have some talent, even if they don’t use it. The Jets have no talent at all.
Frank Gore (21-63-0, 0-0-0/2) is a useless lead back who will be the lead for two more weeks until Le’Veon returns…or longer if Le’Veon is traded.
LaMical Perine (3-17-0) will likely start working a 70/30 split here with Gore and see some PPR work. He might have a minor spike PPR game ahead.
Kalen Ballage (1-5-0, 2-12-0) inexplicably is here, and he might see some extra work in blowouts.
I could see a Le’Veon trade by Week 5 and a three-headed nightmare backfield of Gore-Ballage-Perine the rest of the season.
-- Nick Mullens (8-11 for 71 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is a capable backup QB. He won’t hurt this offense too badly. He has starter experience. Jimmy G. will probably miss a week and then be back. The 49ers can get by for a week against NYG, you’d think.
-- Six players/receivers to quick comment on from this game (in no particular order)…
1) Brandon Aiyuk (2-21-0/3) made his debut. He didn’t look totally comfortable, a bit nervous, but he looked very fast/quick. In another week or two the 49ers might have Jimmy G. + Aiyuk + Deebo + Kittle all back healthy, and then really have something solid on offense again.
Aiyuk will probably start slowly for FF and continue to rise – but given no Deebo or Kittle, there is room for him to get extra work and make some noise as early as this week.
Aiyuk looks lightning fast and looks like he has added muscle. The 49ers don’t have a high-volume passing game and Aiyuk and Jimmy G. have limited time with each other…could be a choppy 2020 for Aiyuk, but there’s some hope on the talent.
2) Jordan Reed (7-50-2/8) looks like the old Jordan Reed, as I said last week. He took advantage of these terrible Jets linebackers. When George Kittle returns, Reed goes back to a random TE2.
3) Braxton Berrios (6-59-1/8) should already be starting for this team, or some team. He’s the perfect Cole Beasley-type WR…and he was clearly the Jets’ best WR in this game. He could have another nice game Week 3 if Jamison Crowder is out. Like an FF-startable in PPR type of game out of nowhere.
Everything you like about Crowder gets put into Berrios with Crowder gone, and everyone gone.
4) Breshad Perriman (2-12-0/2) is one of the ‘gone’. Likely out for a week or more. I thought he just had a weak game here, but he got hurt and had to leave early.
The note here is – Perriman looked DAMN good in the time he was in. There’s something there when he returns. It’s limited some because of Sam Darnold sucking, but it’s not nothing. Sadly, he has to deal with Darnold…so, his FF-upside is limited.
5) Josh Malone (4-16-0/6, 1-12-0) got extra work when Perriman went down. He’s a decent warm body to fill-in. Not worth a fantasy look.
6) Chris Hogan (6-75-0/8) played capable football, as he does. If the Jets are still down Crowder + Perriman, I’d rather have Berrios than Hogan for a quick start for the week.
-- A quick IDP note… With all the D-Line injuries, Kerry Hyder (8 tackles, 2 solo/6 assist, 1.0 sack, 2 QB hits) played 80% of the snaps and was pretty active. Hyder puts up numbers when he gets a chance. He had 3 tackles and a sack in 40% of the snaps Week 1. He has 3 QB hits already this season…3x the amount Carolina has as a team this season.
A deep one to take note of.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Hogan
46 = Berrios
42 = J Malone
20 = Perriman
37 = Gore
09 = Perine
08 = Ballage
05 = Adams
45 = Bourne
44 = Aiyuk
28 = T Taylor
13 = Sanu
10 = Pettis
52 = Hyder
43 = Kinlaw
34 = Alec Ogletree
17 = Avery Williamson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Bills 31, Dolphins 28
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’m not sure why this game went like it did…totally unlike you would expect…
Sure, the Bills won…by not as much as you’d think.
The Bills are supposed to have this killer pass defense, and Ryan Fitzpatrick had no issues with them (and he’s been a Bills killer in Miami).
Josh Allen isn’t supposed to throw for 400+ yards and 4 TDs in a game…ever.
What happened?
No clue.
It was very hot and humid. It rained for a moment. The game got delayed for lightning. The whole game felt disjointed.
The core fundamentals remain true: Buffalo is very sound..and won. Miami is still a scattered, rag tag mess…and lost. Miami was chasing Buffalo the entire time. The Bills are just better coached and more disciplined and more talented…and won in a hard place to go on the road and win.
The Bills face some challenges the next few weeks – LAR, at LV, at TEN, KC. This could be a scuffling (3-3) team in a hurry.
Miami’s season may get sent swirling down the drain Thursday Night at Jacksonville. We might see Tua Week 4.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The main thing I did in this game study was watch every pass play from Preston Williams’s (1-26-0/5) point of view. Williams’s has had a beyond slow start and I’m seeing him being dropped/cut/traded away, etc. Certainly, no one wants to start him. I thought he could put up numbers right away.
Is it his ACL recovery?
Is it Fitzpatrick?
Is it Brian Flores?
Is it bad luck?
Three things to share, and do with it what you wish…
1) Williams is getting covered by the best corners in the game Weeks 1-2. Gillmore then Tre’Davious Weeks 1-2.
The Texans have faced KC-BAL out of the gates, but the Bears have faced DET-NYG…sometimes the schedule goes against you.
I had hoped/planned the NFL would cover DeVante Parker with their #1 corners, but even THEY know Preston is the best WR on this team…coming off an ACL.
2) Williams, for what it is worth, nearly had two TDs in this game.
His lone catch for 26 yards was a beauty falling at the pylon…just out of bounds before hitting the TD.
He later had a game-winner (potentially) thrown to him on 4th & 1 late at the goal line…he leapt up and botched the quick pass grab TD that literally hit him in the numbers. Cost them the game. The good news – when the money was on the line they went to Preston.
3) I watched all his pass routes/snaps…I’m here to say he is back to 100%. He looks smooth. He looks like 2019 Preston. He’s getting open, but Fitz isn’t looking a lot because it’s not a good idea to attack those corners.
Preston Williams is going to be a star. The potential is there. But he’s getting #1 corners thrown at him constantly off the bat in 2020 and he’s going to get top rookie CB C.J. Henderson this week…hard to trust Williams again. Preston might get over OK on the rookie, but CJH has been really good out of the gates.
Week 4, PW might catch a break with Seattle.
Week 5, wheel’s up against SF.
Week 6, back to some problems with DEN if Bouye is back/fine.
Week 7, versus LAC he might get shut down again.
Week 8, versus Ramsey…toast.
Week 9, Patrick Peterson may be an issue, but probably not.
Through Week 9, PW has two nice matchups…maybe two other OK ones. He has too many top corners to contend with to get excited though to Week 6, and then he might be working with a QB (Tua) who might be overwhelmed and can’t get him the ball in such circumstances either…or could be a boom? I think more shaky than boom.
Williams is a future star stuck in a weird passing game getting ready to transition and a schedule where he keeps getting #1 corners thrown at him From Week 10 on it looks much better, but that’s a long way away.
Point is, bottom line – I see a star still with Preston, but I don’t know when it will happen in 2020…it could be another season. It could be that he breaks out Week 3 for a mini-spurt Weeks 3-4-5. I just know what I know – he’s really promising/talented/loaded with star qualities.
-- Isaiah Ford (7-76-0/9) is not loaded with star qualities but if Miami can’t run the ball and is in constant deficit – Ford can have games like these and be a new Gage-Cole WR3/flex hopeful kinda WR.
With Williams getting shutdown so much…the ball has to go somewhere.
-- The ball went to Mike Gesicki (8-130-1/11) a lot in this game. You have to FF-respect the fact that NFL defenses don’t tend to take him seriously. In this game, Buffalo was missing their two starting ILBs and Miami took advantage.
If Tremaine Edmunds played, like normal, he probably would have shut down Gesicki. Instead, Gesicki had a star moment. Gesicki can be a TE1 on decent volume and decent TDs…I just don’t see a star here, just useful erratically.
But like with T.J. Hockenson…if the team is always down and chasing and can’t run the ball…lots of passes to go around.
-- What Miami is doing with their run game is beyond me. Myles Gaskin (7-46-0, 6-36-0/7) is the lead RB while Jordan Howard (5-4-1) starts snap one and then is gone until he gets called to the goal line. Matt Breida (7-37-0, 1-2-0/2) has more juice overall…and yet he defers to Gaskin as well.
I gotta believe Breida is going to emerge from this as viable soon, for FF. Miami has to be getting desperate to win. Brian Flores has butchered this whole thing. In desperation, he might make a change of course.
-- What Buffalo is doing with their backfield is a 60/40 split…near 50/50.
Devin Singletary (10-56-0, 2-20-0/3) looks like the clear better back. Visually, it’s not right…DS should get more touches. He made a number of savvy runs/plays in this game.
Zack Moss (8-37-0) looks OK, but he’s not near the gamebreaker or pass catcher (no targets for Moss here).
Singletary is in a split with the TDs going everywhere else…but he might start to pull away a little bit more from Moss when they hit this rough patch of schedule coming.
-- Miami lost Byron Jones a few plays into this game, and Josh Allen then threw for 417 yards and 4 TDs. With no Jones Week 3 TNF…imagine what Minshew Mania will do.
-- The 2020 Buffalo Bills defense has lost something from last year’s unit (s far). They are #3 against the run, which is good…but they used to be a shutdown pass defense, like best in the league, but they are sitting #20 in the league against the pass right now…and that’s after facing Darnold and Fitzpatrick.
I think it’s more ILB injury/TE based getting worked in the passing game. They are still stifling WRs pretty well, but not as good as 2019…and TEs are roaring against them and RBs are doing OK in the pass game too. We’ll see how they do against Goff-Carr-Tannehill-Mahomes upcoming…all quality QBs/low turnover guys.
The opportunities for DST scoring for the Bills-DST ahead is not good through Week 6.
Snap Counts of Interest:
66 = Parker
61 = Pr Williams
48 = Ford
45 = Gesicki
35 = Smythe
49 = Gaskin
16 = Breida
08 = Howard
34 = Singletary
28 = Moss
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Titans 33, Jaguars 30
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was 14-0 Titans 10 minutes into the 1st-quarter -- and I thought this was the Jags collapse after a lucky Week 1.
For the next 50 minutes the Jags outscored the Titans 30-19, but on a final drive to get in field goal range, which they were likely to be and possibly get a TD to win it, a Minshew pass was batted down and into a D-Lineman’s hands for a game-ending INT. The Jaguars should be (1-1)…winning this game, and losing last week to the Colts (the reverse of that happened). They had a real chance to be (2-0) to start the season.
The Jaguars represent a football theory you can run with in this particular era – gut all the bloated payroll guys and just run with a bunch of ‘poor’ (no 1st-round picks at QB-RB-WR), hungry, high character guys and let them try and outplay the bloated millionaires. It’s an odd class warfare version of football. It’s also a very coachable group who ‘yes, sir…no, sir’ the head coach…until it’s their time to be paid. It works right now for the Jags (see to: the 2nd-half of 2019 season Miami Dolphins). The Jags aren’t winning the Super Bowl, but they are not to be trifled with.
The Jaguars lead the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage…after facing two pretty good defenses (IND and TEN) so far this year. You don’t do that if you’re ‘bad at football’ or ‘tanking’. They are the furthest from tanking. Keelan Cole is playing every snap for his life/livelihood. Odell Beckham can’t wait for the season to be over so he can go buy more cars, houses, and yachts and take more vacations.
I swear, I’m not a Bernie Sanders’ supporter!
I will take the Jaguars and lay the -3.0 to throttle the Dolphins this week on TNF. Miami…a Dolphins team that gutted its bloated roster last year, became a winning team with it 2nd-half of the season…and then went out and spent a ton of money in the offseason to bring in new bloated payroll guys. Looks like that is working out well…
I would not be surprised if Jacksonville is not (4-2) heading into their Week 7 BYE.
The Titans are (2-0) and could very well be (0-2). The Titans are getting out to fast leads and then stalling and hanging on for wins against teams they are supposed to be better than. Another (9-7) season is coming…I can feel it. But they just keep winning, so…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s talk about the two QBs here…both are legit fantasy QB1s now.
Gardner Minshew (30-45 for 339 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) was one of my late redraft 2nd QBs on the roster guys (along with Burrow and Stafford)…and that’s already paid off. FFM Dynasty leagues are littered with Minshew investments as a cheap 2nd or 3rd QB when everyone else thought that was dumb back to last year. If you didn’t land Minshew this offseason in Dynasty, you were either loaded at QB already or you wouldn’t believe me. Too late now…now everyone is onto him as legit…for the NFL and FF.
He’s talented + this team will have to throw a bunch + he has really good WRs. He’s a QB1 this year, period.
-- Who I did not see coming…and who I did not believe in…was Ryan Tannehill (18-24 for 239 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT). He keeps playing great and I keep fighting it waiting for ‘you know Tannehill won’t keep this up’ to happen…but I’ve been saying that for 15 starts/games of his now. At what point will I realize I’m stupid?
This week, I might have realized it.
I mean, I used him late last year to get over in places…but I kept waiting for the rug to get pulled out every time. I didn’t believe it the whole time it was happening last year, as I was prospering from it. Now, here I am again looking past it. I’m not alone.
You wanna know how good Tannehill has been?
He took over as full starter Week 7 of last year, and logged 10 regular season game starts, three playoff games, and two games so far in 2020…15 games as a starter for TEN. His record in that time: (11-4).
His numbers in those 15 games…
271 comp./397 att. = 69.3% Comp Pct.
3,455 yards passing (230.3 per game)
33 TDs/6 INTs (2.2 passing TDs per game)
245 rushing yards (16.3 per game)
5 rushing TDs
Where does all this rank in the QB universe?
22.4 FF PPG (4pts per pass TD)…that pace would have made him the #2 QB in all FF PPG in 2019.
26.4 FF PPG (6pts per pass TD)…right with Mahomes fighting for #2 in 2019.
33 passing TDs in a season would have been tied for 2nd-most in the NFL last year.
Guess where he’s ranked for passing TDs so far in 2020? 2nd-most with Ryan-Allen-Rodgers-Minshew.
You’re not getting wild 300+ yard passing games from Tannehill, but you’re getting 2 TD passes almost every week. In his 15 Tennessee starts, he has thrown for 2 or more TD passes 13 times.
Defenses so overplay Derrick Henry to run, as they should…it gives Tannehill the clearance to throw efficiently, against limited coverage and allows him to pick defenses apart as needed.
Ryan Tannehill is a QB1 for 2020…sitting on waivers a lot this week. Available in trade for almost nothing. Why do we not care? Because the NFL is doing big stories or commercials with him. He doesn’t have a funny beard or mustache that NFL analysts judge QB talent on. He’s not a magical rookie. He’s not a runner, per se (but better than people realize) – he’s just really, really good and has been good for 15 games and we don’t care.
I’m usually not in great need of a QB. I already got an ace at the top and Minshew/Burrow/Stafford in the hole…but is Tannehill better than Stafford right now? Or better than Minshew or Burrow? It’s not as crazy a question as you might think.
At Minnesota this week…that should be sweet/solid too.
Versus PIT-BUF Weeks 4-5 is no good, in theory, but he seems to always do fine…but then Week 6 HOU, Week 7 bye, Week 8 CIN is back to good opportunities v. HOU and CIN.
-- When Tannehill is working, he doesn’t tend to lean on one receiver. He spreads it around. He’s hard to figure out for FF…what receivers to chase with him.
A.J. Brown is his guy, but with AJB out…Jonnu Smith (4-84-2/5) is more his guy. But remember, Tannehill is just efficient and tossing TDs…not a ton of yards/completions. Thus, Jonnu is now deemed a star because of his 2 TD game, but outside of that: 4.0 rec., 60.0 yards, 6.0 targets per game YTD…that’s not high-end TE1 activity. Not enough targets/action on a regular basis, but definitely TE1 material.
If you think Corey Davis (3-36-1/5) is rising up without AJB…it’s not really happening. Davis is likely to score a TD with AJB out, but still lowly targeted (for a de facto #1 WR with AJB out). Davis is a random option in a low volume/high TD passing game. Better for non-PPR as a flex/flyer.
When Davis has to be a #1, like this game – high-end rookie CB C.J. Henderson easily shut him off most of the game. Davis operates better in the shadows but is not Tannehill’s #1 or #2 or even #3 look most drop backs.
-- What’s wrong with Derrick Henry (25-84-0, 0-0-0/2)? Nothing. Teams are stacking him (as they do), and he hasn’t had his moment yet. He will. He’ll be fine. He’ll be an RB1 ranked PPG producer soon despite the slow start.
-- James Robinson (16-102-1, 3-18-0/4) still looks very pedestrian on tape to me. But he’s fine. He’s not terrible…but the beauty is – when you get all the touches, good FF things tend to happen.
I don’t know if Ryquell Armstead makes any dent in touches upon a return or not. But it looks like James Robinson all the way for the near future. We’re all excited about him, but the moment he has like two 15-55-0 games in a row, people will turn on him/treat him like an RB3.
I like to dangle JRob out in deals now with a so-so WR to land a Joe Mixon, etc., in a deal,
-- This Jaguars WR group is really humming…
D.J. Chark (4-84-0/4) looks totally fine. I don’t know why the targets are so down (just 3.5 targets per game so far), but he looks fine/open/is making plays.
Minshew doesn’t have to lean on him for everything, so we’re getting low targets…at the same time DJC gets the best coverage. If he has a big Week 3…all will be deemed fine. I am concerned that it’s two games with low targets. One low game can be a blip. Two makes me pause. I’m not buying or selling Chark right now…I’m holding and seeing where this goes. I’d be a buyer more than seller. Chark is too good to be 4 targets a game guy.
He’s going to have a 7-150-2 game soon, and everyone will be back on board again. Thursday night vs. MIA might be the spot for reemergence if Byron Jones is out.
Also, consider… Minshew is so efficient, he’s not going to have a ton of targets because he has a ton of completions. Chark (or others) might get only 5-6-7 targets in a game but catch 5-6-7 passes, and that’s what you want…catches not targets. Unconnected targets/lofty target levels can be misleading. You want connections/completions.
Keelan Cole (6-58-1/7) is playing beautiful football, but he’s risen to FF-power on a TD in each of his first two games…the moment he has a 4-47-0/6 game, he’ll be less than Cole Beasley for people. No one really believes in him, so I’m happy to have him now…or wait for him to be on waivers again if taken this week.
I was really impressed with Laviska Shenault (3-35-0/4, 5-37-0) this game. I’ve been on the sidelines on Shenault this whole time because I didn’t see him being athletic enough to really pop with these ‘unique’ touches he’s getting. That he would be fine, but Curtis Samuel is getting in the same range of touches but he isn’t deemed as exciting because he’s not a magical unicorn rookie.
7 carries, 47 yards rushing, 6 rec. (8 targets), 72 yards receiving, 61% of snaps played = Shenault YTD
5 carries, 31 yards rushing, 7 rec. (10 targets), 51 yards receiving, 72% of snaps played = Samuel YTD
I was impressed with Shenault’s catching ability in this game. He’s really made hay on some errant/off-target/only-where-the-WR-can-get-them throws. He’s a legit WR3/flex kinda option. I don’t know that he can consistently go much higher than that.
-- Some Jags IDPs of note…
C.J. Henderson (6 tackles, 1 PD) gives this Jags defense a shutdown corner immediately…so, beware on Preston Williams AGAIN this week drawing top cover corner #3 in-a-row.
Andrew Wingard (9 tackles) is the new safety and he is a tackle machine…a linebacker mind playing safety. He’ll do well for IDP as a Jags’ starter.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Jonnu
50 = Corey Davis
34 = Batson (wow)
34 = Humphries
28 = Raymond
59 = Chark
51 = Cole
43 = Shenault
34 = Conley
08 = Collin Johnson
38 = James Robinson
31 = Chris Thompson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Colts 28, Vikings 11
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Computer felt great about MIN in this game for some reason, so I joined in against my better judgment…and not good…not good at all.
The Vikings drove right down the field opening drive and settled for a field goal. The 1st-quarter ended 3-0 MIN. Looked like a slog was in store…neither team looking particularly sharp. Then the Colts decided to run every play and jam it down the Vikings’ throats with Jonathan Taylor, and they did. Minnesota slept the rest of the game and got smacked around for the second game in a row this year.
The Vikings are better than this, but time is running out fast – they play three playoff teams in a row (TEN, at HOU, at SEA) and their season may be over by Week 5.
The Colts are the #1 pass defense in yards allowed, #4 best in QB rating allowed, #3 best in yards per completion allowed. They are #5 best in rushing yards per game allowed. The Colts are suddenly a sneaky power run game and higher-end defensive unit. They should be the favorites to win the AFC South for sure…unless Philip Rivers breaks down too much before the finish line…he does not look great…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- T.Y. Hilton (3-28-0/5) is not ‘shot’…he’s lost a step, but not shot/done yet. Good news is he’s still viable, bad news is he’s not the same ‘stud’ he used to be. I was hoping he’d be a sneaky WR1 candidate from the middle redraft rounds…he’s probably not.
He is working the slot and still ‘T.Y.’, so he gets respect. But superstar weeks look fewer and further apart now. Rivers is not selling his soul to throw it to him. He did/forced it a few times this game, but T.Y. is not really open as much as he used to be. Hilton did spring open for a 40+ yard TD, 2+ yards ahead of coverage, and Rivers floated right to him in stride and Hilton dropped it.
Could’ve been circumstantial on the dropped TD: https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/colts-insider/2020/09/21/colts-coach-frank-reich-t-y-hilton-lost-deep-ball-sun/5858385002/
I can look past a dropped TD in the sun…but not seeing Rivers ache to get T.Y. the ball is worrying me.
-- Michael Pittman (4-37-0/6) looked like an old pro in his first real work of 2020…he looked fine. But also, Rivers was not killing to get the ball to him either. But Rivers looked more comfortable with Pittman than Hilton, honestly.
The receivers might be fine here…but Rivers may be the bigger issue…that he can’t get them to the FF-promised land in 2020. Did you see Mike Williams’ stats last year? Not having Parris Campbell to take heat/coverage/focus away is not going to help anybody either.
When we lost Parris Campbell, we lost a junior Diontae Johnson pop that was in progress. It’s a crying shame.
-- Mo Alie-Cox (5-111-0/6) got the special treatment from Rivers but it was open/available/working and MAC bobbled the incoming treats but gathered them in for a big day.
Alie-Cox is fine, but when Jack Doyle comes back Mo is no mo, for FF. Then Trey Burton comes back soon too.
-- The Colts offense IS Jonathan Taylor (26-101-1, 2-9-0/2). As Josh Jacobs is to Jon Gruden, as Derrick Henry is to Mike Vrabel…so goes Taylor to Frank Reich now. Taylor is an undisputed RB1 for the ROS.
If he goes down it will be a Wilkins/Hines split they’re stuck with.
-- Where was Nyheim Hines (1-4-0/1)…top FF star of Week 1? He played 9 snaps…no clue why he was so limited. He wasn’t hurt.
I think they just power run gamed it and then when under control got Jordan Wilkins (9-40-0) extended training camp work to get him up to speed.
Hines will have better, more useful days ahead…you’d think.
-- Not much to say for the Vikings here for FF or otherwise. Same old same old Vikings. Kirk Cousins (11-26 for 113 yards, 0 TD/3 INTs) looks uninspired to say the least.
It was about this time last year, Cousins started so poorly and everyone tried to replace him with Sean Mannion. How’d that turn out for Cousins/Minnesota in the end?
-- Justin Jefferson (3-44-0/3) played a few more snaps, saw a few more targets this week…still don’t see a big star happening anytime soon. He may end up with BYE week value ahead just because the Vikings have nothing else to turn to, as Adam Thielen (3-31-0/8) was doubled all game it seemed.
-- Alexander Mattison (3-13—0, 1-3-0/2) seems like nothing, but you’ve seen all the ACLs…right? If Dalvin Cook gets one, Mattison an RB1 candidate in his place.
Keelan Cole and Russell Gage and such are cute, but none of them are going to be future WR1s. If you’re holding a WR like that as last roster spot guys for a gamble/depth…you might rather try to guess the next ACL-birthed superstar waiver RB of the week…for next week.
-- I mentioned some of the numbers on the Colts-DST earlier…they have strong defensive metrics and are the current #3 DST in fantasy with the Jets to face this week…and then the Bears…and then Cleveland…and then Cincy. A great four-week run with Indy-DST head. Might be a keep through their Week 8 BYE.
Snap Counts of Interest:
67 = Pittman
59 = Pascal
42 = Hilton
49 = J Taylor
17 = Wilkins
09 = Hines
48 = Thielen
42 = Bisi Johnson
29 = J Jefferson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Bears 17, Giants 13
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was 17-0 Bears at the half. It looked like what many expected…the Bears are OK, and the Giants are terrible…no big deal. In the second half, the Giants shut out the Bears and came back to within 4 points with chances at the end…but they couldn’t pull through.
This is a story of two bad teams playing a game, and one of them mercifully won. Not much more to say about it top side. The Bears are highly overrated and are going to crash to earth soon and should be 0-2 right now. The Giants are properly rated. But they are trying hard.
A lesson to 2-0/0-2 FF teams out there…Houston is 0-2, Chicago is 2-0. Do their records really represent how good/bad their teams are? Do you think the Bears will have more wins than they Texans in the end? It’s early. Some teams played DET and NYG and others played KC and BAL…the records are not indicative of reality. We need more weeks to play out to find reality.
Oh, and I’m going to reveal a gem at the end (saving it to the end) that you’re not going to want to miss…and be careful how excited you get. Keep it in context.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- What about the Giants backfield now?
First…will Saquon Barkley (4-28-0) get the ‘always injured’ label for 2021 redraft…like David Johnson or Leonard Fournette have had to deal with for years, even if not really true? Nope. Have you seen his quads? The media loves Saquon, so his value will barely change. He might plummet from the #1-2 overall player to the #4-5…oh, the horror.
With him gone, the Giants are set to roll with Dion Lewis (10-20-1, 4-36-0/5). And that makes Lewis an RB2 in PPR, and probably for non-PPR as well. The Giants have a lot of pressure to ‘win now’. Joe Judge wants to book his first win…and Dave Gettleman is on a serious hot seat. The schedule ahead is terrible for NYG/Lewis…SF-LAR-DAL-WAS-PHI-TB-WAS-PHI, some of the top run defenses in the league except for WAS 2x. However, that’s where Lewis has to play a lot…to block and be the rock for the team in a very tough situation.
If NYG was signing Devonta Freeman, they would have done so already…I suspect. Still possible he signs today, but NYG has to see that they have no chance this year and Freeman isn’t changing the game upon arrival either.
The sleeper play in this, but not a radical one, is Wayne Gallman (DNP)…the problem is, Saquon went down and Gallman registered no snaps that I see. It was all Dion Lewis. Gallman had a great camp, was drawing buzz I was keeping tabs on him to be the #2 back…but he was named #3 back and didn’t see any touches in the Saquon-crisis here.
Dion Lewis is ‘the man’ for the foreseeable future – a solid enough RB, getting heavy touches, junk-time PPR work, but against a very tough schedule behind a weak O-Line. Better for PPR than not, but his volume might make up for schedule/O-Line some on rushing. Lewis might get some crazy catch counts in this offense. I’d chase him pretty hard in PPR for those in need, because I don’t know if everyone is that excited about him – but they know he’s in a good spot at the moment, but Devonta visiting is scaring them some.
The Giants may add a back, just not Devonta. Lewis is an ex-Patriot on a team coached by an ex-Patriot…so, Lewis gets special treatment/status. I’d roll with it if I have to. Lewis is in a similar spot as James Robinson, for example – ‘the guy’ behind a weak O-Line. Only Lewis has no challenger for the PPR work like Robinson.
-- I love a buy low on Evan Engram (6-65-0/8) now. The Giants will be throwing a lot and Engram is the security blanket and mismatch opportunity. He’s going to pop and then you’ll be mad you didn’t try to get…if you need help at TE.
-- I’d like to think Darius Slayton (3-33-0/6) is in line for more work/better FF days, but watching him in this game – too much going deep for Slayton while Daniel Jones throws underneath. Slayton is their best WR, and Jones’s fave WR now…but that’s probably WR2 cap at best.
I like Slayton as a buy low off this down week…but buy LOW. Not fair value. Those having WR issues…it’s guys like Slayton (not the biggest names, but in offenses with a lot of passing on game flows, and are talented, AND coming off a down week) that are the cheaper targets to help re-make your WR group if needed. If his owner wants to profess love and treat Slayton like gold, then move on. There’s other/better WRs to pursue for the price.
*Sterling Shepard (2-29-0/4) is already hurt again, so now the shift to Engram-Slayton should be coming on stronger.
-- Allen Robinson (3-33-0/9) is not necessarily on my ‘buy low’ list. This passing game is awful, and people want to dump ARob, but still think he’s a strong WR1…he’s more of a weak WR1.
If I can get ARob as a WR2 valuation, then I’m interested…I still see his owners holding tight. I think he’s a smart get-cheap, but I’m not paying fair value. There’s better WRs to chase than fair value ARob.
…but, if the Nick Foles takeover comes into view, I’m a bit more interested in ARob. The (2-0) start means Foles is still a few weeks away but mark my words…it’s coming.
-- Ryan Nall (1-2-0/1) was sighted!! I just wanted to type that while I could. This is still Montgomery as RB2 backed up by WR Patterson and then Tarik Cohen (5-12-0, 1-15-0/1), who has totally disappeared, after that. Nall is a million light years away from any chance…but he at least got in the game here.
-- I thought Mitch Trubisky (18-28 for 190 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs, 4-16-0) played another shaky/borderline terrible game. You know I have liked Mitch, but I see no development in 2020 and he works in this terrible offense. He’s lucky he’s faced DET-NYG back-to-back is all I can say.
Another gift this week…Atlanta. The clock strikes midnight on Trubisky starting Week 4.
I’d rather have Daniel Jones (25-40 for 241 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 3-21-0) for FF…that’s how down I am on Trubisky. Trubisky is not getting any better, he’s getting worse – he’s a totally scared, over-managed QB. The end is nigh. A wasted opportunity of a career by Matt Nagy.
-- Two IDP notes…
DB Logan Ryan (7 tackles) was a late signee of the Giants and in Week 1 he played 59% of the snaps but played 85% here and had a nice IDP effort. Remember, he was a top IDP DB last year. He’s now on a team that will be on defense a lot…and he’s an ex-Patriot on a team coached by an ex-Patriot. He’s going to be useful for IDP again.
DL Kyler Fackrell (4 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs) had 10.5 sacks for Green Bay in the 2018 season, but just 1.0 in 2019 and was quietly signed by NYG in the offseason. He is not a nobody. He might be NYG’s best pass rusher.
-- OK, the special note…
I was asked by someone last night…”Is there a next Diontae Johnson?” The question stopped me in my tracks for a moment. Great question. I’ve been so focused on celebrating Diontae and trying to make sure everyone was valuing him properly, I hadn’t really thought…OK, great you hit Diontae…whaddya got for me now? Pull another rabbit out of your arse dancing fantasy boy!
‘Diontae’ means a certain type of WR. Slender. Good hands+. But mostly so fast-of-foot off the snap they can get open on anyone…BUT that has to be combined with the intestinal fortitude to work all parts of the field. Jerry Jeudy can get open on anyone off the snap, but then is a piece of garbage over the middle or near any traffic. Diontae is a chip-on-his-shoulder, overlooked grinder…Jeudy is an entitled diva.
Who fits the bill for next Diontae?
One contender I have in mind – Chicago Bears 5th-round 2020 rookie Darnell Mooney.
Let’s look at the quick overview/timeline…
A very good college WR, hidden away at Tulane…somewhat because of a bad passing game/QB situation. Mostly because he didn’t play in the SEC.
Ran a 4.38 40-time at the Combine, as everyone collectively yawned.
Drafted 5th-round and wasn’t fully assumed to make the team.
Impressed in camp (which means little on rookies…everyone impresses). But I couldn’t see him against NFL talent in the preseason to really ‘know’.
Played near as many snaps as Anthony Miller Week 1, in a mild shock to me. Out-snapped Miller Week 2, and scored a TD. The #2 WR on the Chicago Bears is Darnell Mooney…and most people aren’t aware and don’t really care.
You should care.
How much, is difficult to answer. What’s the #2 WR on the Bears worth…especially splitting with Miller to some degree?
Mooney has that ‘Diontae look’ to me, to some degree. Very fast. Sharp cuts. Great hands…is a really a very good WR (I know this from my CFM studies and subsequent scouting report). But Mooney is a rookie…on a weak offense with a revolving QB situation ahead. However, being the #2 WR, being a talent, seeing ARob get all the top coverage – it’s got my FF-interest piqued. But, where did Taylor Gabriel get us the past two years in a similar spot? BUT, Anthony Miller popped late last year because he was ‘there/available’.
I don’t think a Mooney breakout is imminent/next week but he should be on the radar the deeper your redraft rosters go – and deeper Dynasty rosters, now is the time to start seeing if you have a spot to put him in/acquire fairly cheap.
Diontae in Chicago wouldn’t be ‘Diontae’/AB 2.0…because there is no Big Ben, so be careful how excited you get by my hinting. I’m probably quite early to this party and I need to see more of his NFL work, but what I’ve seen so far…I’m really encouraged that he might hit for the future, but also be useful now in some respects actually playing for the Bears already.
If you ask me about picking Mooney up on Video Q&A or whatever…you gotta tell me ‘in place of who?’.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = ARob
39 =Mooney
29 = Wims
26 = Anth Miller
35 = D Montg
21 = Cohen
14 = CPatt
65 = Peppers
65 = Bradberry
64 = J Love
55 = Logan Ryan
29 = Ballentine
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Steelers 26, Broncos 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Steelers led 17-3 at halftime. They had sent Drew Lock out of the game. Courtland Sutton would be lost for the year eventually. Everything that could go wrong for Denver was going wrong…and, yet, with 7+ minutes remaining…the Broncos had a couple of shots/drives to win the game at the end.
I’m not sure if it was the Steelers got lax or if the Broncos are just so scrappy (and enjoy losing closing games, as they do)…but it ended up closer than it felt watching it. Denver is scrappy. The Steelers are still a bit sloppy but might have the best defense in football…so they’ll only fade so far in a game.
Pittsburgh gets more of a test this week with Houston…as they inch closer to a Week 7 showdown at Baltimore. I don’t know how good the Steelers…I should say I don’t know how great they are. I know they are good, but are they legit Super Bowl contenders? I think they are, but we’ll get another clue this week v. a tougher/desperate Houston.
Denver has lost a couple of it’s best players, heart & soul types…and they cannot recover from it. Courtland Sutton and Von Miller out for the season, and Phillip Lindsay and A.J. Bouye missing…it’s almost a ‘win’ in this close loss because it’s a miracle they were in it to the end (or the Steelers aren’t as good as we think). Denver hosts Tampa Bay this week and that might be closer than the Bucs/the public expects too.
Denver has lost too many top players and has too tough a schedule from Week 5 on to make any noise for 2020. They should start selling pieces now. Drew Lock getting hurt was the best thing that ever happened to this team, but they don’t see it that way.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First things first…I don’t think you fully appreciate what is happening with Diontae Johnson (8-92-1/13). Sure, you’re happy he had a big game. You’re hopeful. You like him. You’re encouraged.
You are sitting on Antonio Brown in the making…and this AB 2.0 is ALSO with Big Ben. We have a QB that knows what this means/how to use it. If it were Derek Carr/Jon Gruden + Diontae, he’d be blocking for run plays every down and having 2-3 catches a game and no one would care.
You have a WR1 in PPR with Diontae, no more questions asked this year.
If Diontae ever stops ___-ing up the first few plays of each game, it would be nice. Week 1…muffed punt and then a drop and then a wrong route – and then gold the rest of the way. Week 2…fumbled a jet sweep first play, a drop soon after, and then gold.
The Steelers WR group after two games…
14 rec., 23 targets, 149 yards, 1 TD = Diontae
13 rec., 14 targets, 117 yards, 2 TDs = JuJu
05 rec., 05 targets, 127 yards, 1 TD = Claypool (now a viable FF player suddenly)
02 rec., 03 targets, 34 yards 1 TD = Washington
The thing is…98% of the FF population would feel better if they had Chris Godwin or D.J. Moore instead. If you don’t have Diontae, you can still get him…but it will cost you. It might be a sacrifice you want to make.
I suspect many of you don’t fully appreciate the treasure you possess in Diontae…that you fully feel the full value…like someone else who struggles with valuations: https://youtu.be/xyyqoHCkw9I
-- Speaking of WR greatness…Chase Claypool (3-88-1/3) is coming on so fast it’s amazing. I projected him as future-great/top of the WR draft class type talent, but I didn’t think it could happen with this WR group in place this quickly. I’m so happy Claypool is getting a chance to shine.
He might be a week or two away from being a legit starter, especially in non-PPR leagues. Claypool and Diontae are two of the best WR talents I’ve scouted in the past 5 years…both on the same team, and Claypool isn’t starting yet, but it won’t be long now.
This is why I’ve been anti-JuJu Smith-Schuster (7-48-0/8)…he’s got too much talent enveloping him for touches.
-- Chase Claypool doesn’t go 1st-round of the NFL Draft, isn’t a starter, makes 3rd-round chump money for the next four years…and yet Jerry Jeudy (4-62-0/7), who sucks by the way, is a multi-millionaire 1st-round pick. And yet we trust the NFL analysts inherently…
In case you’re wondering, Jeudy has 4 drops this season…all on passes over the middle. I think the NFL has only tagged him with two and none in this game…but he flat out dropped two easy passes here – because he heard footsteps. That’s why he sucks. He’s S-A-W-F-T. He is quite bouncy though, and that’s cool to look at when they talk about his bounciness for 10 minutes and never address the massive drops problem he has.
Rabbitt (expert Denver analyst/fan), am I wrong here?
-- Also, one of the best WRs I have ever scouted is Courtland Sutton (3-66-0/6)…who went in the 2nd-round of his draft because NFL analysts are above reproach by guys like me…he came back from his shoulder injury like a beast in this game…and then was taken away from us with an ACL.
Saquon and CMC take the headlines, but FFM-land got crushed this week too, in retrospect…we lost Parris Campbell and Courtland Sutton. That really stings. This year is crazy…and we’re two weeks in. Never been a season start like this for me…radical FF scoring from single players against teams killing teams, plus all these injuries. That’s why you can’t panic off two tough games to start the season…there’s a lot of spasms, high-highs and low-lows and injuries throwing everything off it’s normal flow.
We’re just two weeks in.
We just have to stay in the game, make smart not panic moves, and let the luck/fortune turn our way.
-- Noah Fant (4-57-1/5) is the big winner of Courtland going out (and Jeudy sucking). He’ll be the de facto #1/go-to for Denver now. How great that is with Drew Lock remains to be seen. It won’t be bad with Jeff Driskel. It’s not got the upside we’d hope…now teams are going to start defending it.
-- Speaking of Jeff Driskel (18-34 for 256 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT), he’s better than Drew Lock…that’s not a huge compliment, it’s just a fact. Not much changes with him in and Lock out…except Driskel is better for all.
-- We got to see the debut of K.J. Hamler (3-48-0/7) in this game. There’s literally 50 WRs just like him that are backups. I don’t get the huge appeal of Hamler. He is starting and will see targets, so there’s that. He isn’t terrible…just very tiny and OJ/good not good/great…on a bad passing game.
Damiere Byrd or Keelan Cole or Darnell Mooney are more exciting/better FF WRs.
-- Was anyone surprised James Conner (16-106-1, 2-12-0/2) would not get a full push back into the bell cow role? He will have it until his next injury…+/- 2-3 weeks.
-- The Denver-DST isn’t bad. They really gave a good/efficient Tennessee offense all they could handle Week 1. They held the Steelers to 2-for-12 on 3rd-downs. They got two turnovers. They pushed a very good Steelers offense/Big Ben. They fought hard against two playoff teams.
Three of the next 4 weeks they are viable, for FF. Week 3 hosting Tampa Bay might not be bad, but it’s not preferred. If Bouye is back, it’s not terrible.
You pick them up Week 3 to have them Week 4 v. NYJ.
Week 5 at NE is shaky but doable. Week 6 against Miami at home works well.
Not a hot DST, but one decent among the rubble of the unclaimed. And one to look ahead to Week 4.
-- The Steelers are in the argument for best defense in the NFL now, but before we get too excited – they have faced Daniel Jones and Jeff Driskel, so far. We don’t know how good/great they are. Facing HOU and at TEN the next two weeks aren’t gimmies, but worthy FF plays…just not top FF plays those weeks. Week 7-8-9 is at BAL, BYE, at DAL…that’s a stretch where you need a 2nd DST. You don’t wanna get rid of the Steelers totally then but they’re fine leading up to that stretch and then we’ll see.
In this game, the Steelers had 7 sacks, 13 TFLs, and 19 QB Hits.
By comparison, Denver had 1 sack, 6 TFLs, and 3 QB Hits.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = JuJu
54 = Diontae
31 = Washington
24 = Claypool
50 = Conner
10 = Snell
61 = M Gordon
16 = Royce Freeman