R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Cardinals 17, 49ers 10

What an interesting, weird, ugly at times game.

The Trey Lance debut. The undefeated Cardinals. No George Kittle. Arizona scoring a bunch of points all season but struggling here, while shutting out the 49ers for the 1st-half.

It was only 10-7 Arizona halfway into the 4th-quarter…and then the Cards held on to win 17-10, but it was touch-and-go all 2nd-half.

My rewatch confirmed what I thought I saw live: San Francisco made a lot of mistakes…rookie/Lance mistakes and had a bunch of offensive holding penalties to start drives or ones declined by Arizona for tactical reasons. With all the sloppiness, the 49ers really went toe-to-toe with Arizona…and had a few things/inches go against them to ruin SF taking early momentum away.

The Cardinals stopped an early 4th & 1 attempt around midfield by SF, and then the next series on a 4th & goal run by Lance that looked like an easy score but the Cardinals DBs hit Lance like a Mack truck at the goal line and dropped him cold…inches away from the score…which really took the SF momentum away.

The Arizona Cardinals defense won this game more than anything. It’s such a good defense…and it rises to the occasion on 3rd and 4th-downs in key spots like an elite defense should.

Arizona is (5-0) now, best record in football/the only undefeated team left, but lucky to not be (3-2). This is a really good team, capable of beating any team in the league…but they absolutely do not look like the best team in football to me. NFC West winners. Possible Super Bowl NFC reps…possible winners of the Super Bowl even, but they are not as aesthetically (to me) good as Buffalo, Cleveland, or the L.A. Chargers. The Cardinals seem just a hair shy/not ready…but close, and maybe grows into it. Best team in the NFC? I am fine saying that…Dallas, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay will have their say in that too.

The 49ers are on a 3-game skid, now (2-3) and the season is about to get away from them. They just don’t have the talent of the Cards or the Rams in division, plus they are constantly injury riddled. If they lose to Arizona again in Week 9, and then lose to the Rams Week 10…then they probably throw in the towel on the season…but Week 8 end/going into Week 9 is the NFL trade deadline. Two losses Week 7-8 and still banged up…SF may cash out at the deadline and start prepping for 2022. Either way, I don’t believe the 49ers are winning the NFC West or going to the playoffs…and haven’t thought that going back to August.

There were three key rookie performances to discuss here (Lance, Mitchell, Rondale), and I’ll do that last…we’ll clear the other notes first, because I want to dig in on the rookies.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Kyler Murray (22-31 for 239 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) didn’t have a great FF game. His first dud of 2021. He had a rushing TD opportunity near the goal line but was cut off by a good defensive play. He had an easy, wide-open short TD toss to DeAndre Hopkins but threw it soft down by his knees and Hopkins couldn’t bring it in, leading to a field goal instead. Arizona’s 1st TD was a screen to Rondale Moore, who went 30+ yards for the score, but then upon further review…Arizona’s favorite play of 2021…out of bounds at the 1-yard line. Setting up a you-know-who TD (Conner).

It wasn’t a gem, but it was nearly normal Kyler scoring. No need to worry about his effectiveness. He did hurt his shoulder a bit, nothing horrific, and kept playing, but it brought back memories of his shoulder injury late last year that he played through and his FF numbers started to fall because of it. All we can do his hold our breath and see. He has been a limited practice this week, so that’s a sign he’s good enough to play through it. And Friday he was removed from the practice report, so all good-to-go.

 -- I will keep saying: Sell Deebo Samuel (1-13-1, 3-58-0/9) HIGH.

It’s not ‘sell Deebo at all costs’. It’s not ‘sell Deebo before he busts’. It’s just he’s running as a top 3-5 FF WR in scoring right now, but his play does not match the output – it’s been a couple lucky long TDs, pushing yards and the TDs. He got a rushing TD here to keep the party going, which is good for Deebo owners…because his receiving game was pretty bad here – 3 catches on 9 targets and three drops.

Lance throws a different kind of ball, and it’s off target a lot…and coming in hot…so there’s that but there cannot be a pitch-and-catch relationship with Lance established for Deebo at this point. And if Jimmy G. is back, then it’s a wimpy passing game again.

Deebo’s trading at peak value, and I want to use that to get something major for him before he does fall off in value. I don’t mind holding him, but I have been trying for three weeks to turn him into gold bars. I continue to do so through the bye. You can hold this week and see what needs you have after this week…and any recipients of him in a trade would be getting him to play Week 7…good for trade value. Buyers of Deebo in his bye week are more trying to bargain hunt a bit.

 -- Chase Edmonds (6-15-0, 3-19-0/4) had a shoulder injury coming in, but still played his normal snap share…just not a lot of touches in this game flow.

Edmonds is a nice PPR RB2-2.5, good catch counts/no rushing TDs…he is what he is right now. I’ll hold for depth/usage…I’ll trade in a deal trying to upgrade. I’m not locked into him one way or the other in this offense, and more reason why coming up in a few segments.

 -- As I was finishing this piece, the Cardinals traded for Zach Ertz. It’s the move a team going for the title makes…and a desperate one because of the Maxx Williams injury.

It’s an upgraded situation for Ertz, because it’s a better pass game than Philly…and no longer splitting attention with Dallas Goedert. But I don’t equivocate that Ertz is now some TE1 with a bullet moving to Arizona. The Cardinals have never featured the TE. Ertz is new to the offense. This could take 2-3 weeks to even show a spark. People think it’s the greatest deal for Arizona, thus the Ertz value pops – I’m willing to sell the steak based on the sizzle.

I’m not buying Ertz. I’ll either hold or sell.

 -- One final note before we get to the rookies…the Arizona Defense.

You know it warms my heart/drives me insane every time I listen to pregame or post-game highlights chatter or some random FF show on TV during the day in the background of my office, where the ‘smart’ analyst says…hey, this Arizona defense isn’t bad – as if they discovered (5 weeks in) it first and are hipping the ignorant masses to it now (but even the analysts don’t really believe it).

Raise your hand if you’ve had the Arizona-DST for the last 3-6 weeks? You’re welcome.

Your support of FFM allows me to put in the time to watch all these preseason games and regular season games, and college draft study games all year ‘round so that I can find these gems 3-6 weeks ahead of THEM and bring it to you for your consideration. It’s real work. It’s not the glamour job you think, but it beats a lot of occupations! And I need to produce magical football finds or there’s no reason to support the cause. We produced some magic with the Arizona Defense with good old fashioned scouting. It takes time and experience, which your support allows us to do.

I’ll never work for ESPN or any major outfit, and they do their best to suppress all of us little independents out there (as they should). It’s rigged in their favor. Your support is crucial to keep us alive and going forward. Thank you. Please accept the Arizona-DST 2021 as a token of our appreciation – your support made it happen.

It’s possible the QBs for Arizona-DST to face ahead are: Baker-Mills-Rodgers-Jimmy G.-Darnold-Geno-BYE-Fields-Stafford-Goff-Wentz-Dak (through Week 17). The problem/not optimal weeks are Week’s 8 (GB), Week 12 (BYE), Week 14 (LAR).

Just noting, the L.A. Chargers-DST has Mac Jones (Wk8), Teddy B. (Wk12), and Dan Jones (Wk14). A sweet pairing the rest of the way, with two high-end defensive units…ARI and LAC.

OK, the three rookie reports…

  -- (1) Rondale Moore (3-38-0, 5-59-0/6).

One of the best plans for a WR by an O-C/HC this season this side of the Kadarius Toney event Week 5. Moore had half the carries starting RB Chase Edmonds had in this game…and some of them as a straight up RB…not a jet sweep WR.

Moore’s carries the last three weeks: 1-2-3.

One of his catches in this game was a catch-and-run gem for a TD but ruled out a yard short.

Moore is only playing 40%+ of the snaps in games, but when he’s in they are having him in the backfield and throwing designed bubble screens. It’s game-on with Moore. We need to own him and get ready for the breakout that may have already started. He doesn’t have to start or play all the snaps to be a WR2.

He’s the best FF WR from the 2021 NFL Draft…ahead of Kadarius Toney, but Toney closing fast.

 -- (2) Elijah Mitchell (9-43-0, 2-19-0/2) returned to action.

Last we saw him, he took over the backfield Week 1 from injured Mostert, and then got hurt himself Week 2. He’s a pros pro. Just a smart, talented, non-attention seeking back…and not-super tall or super-speedy or 225+ pounds. He’s just a ‘plus’ athlete with a great feel for running the ball between the tackles. He reminds me of Damien Harris or a thicker/smarter Darrell Henderson.

Fears to address:

Does Trey Lance hurt Mitchell for FF? Yes, to some degree…because Lance will take a lot of rushing numbers. But Mitchell will still be that 15+ touch a game guy. But note the next few weeks will probably be the final acts of Jimmy G., and then you might see Mitchell with 20+ carries a game.

Do Trey Sermon or JaMycal Hasty or Jeff Wilson scare you? No. I think Shanahan found his guy. One of the other guys will be the 25% part of a 75/25 split. Lance is more the fear for taking short TDs, etc., for FF. Trey Sermon played 2 snaps in this game, if you want to know where he stands with Shanny right now.

I mention all this to say… Mitchell has been out for weeks, then this FF meh, then a bye. He’s getting outta sight, outta mind. Then the Jeff Wilson people are gonna start howling soon. They already are. It’s all reducing Mitchell’s value down to an RB2.5-3.0.

If you go straight up asking for Mitchell in a deal, you’ll raise flags. If you just toss Mitchell in as a body to a multiplayer deal…you can get him with little resistance.

One of the best low-key bargains out there this week is Elijah Mitchell…a solid RB1.75-2.0, maybe 1.5…trading as a ‘who cares’ RB2.5-3.0.

 -- (3) Finally, the Trey Lance (15-29 for 192 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT, 16-89-0) full starter debut.

I’ve been cautious on Lance. He really isn’t ready for pocket passing NFL games, fully. He’s making many rookie passer mistakes and is erratic with his passes…rarely throws to a WR on the money. All the flaws were on full display in this game.

But so-to was all the reasons to love him.

Lance in the pocket = bad.

Lance moving around to make plays = good.

Trey Lance has gone from skittish-to-run rookie in the preseason to Week 4 you started to see his elite movement skills, and then they were on full display here – Lance is like a hybrid version of Jalen Hurts and 1st-year Josh Allen right now. Sixth sense movement, way faster feet than Allen, with the cannon arm like Allen…with all the erratic-ness of 1st-year Allen.

The career floor is = Never gets better than erratic 2nd-year Josh Allen.

The career ceiling is = Better version of Josh Allen. He’s got the same arm skill, but a terrible delivery with faster feet.

Lance, in his ‘still baking’ cake-state, being thrown in against Arizona, of all defenses, was going to be a chore. But I thought he handled it better than expected. He was a running weapon. 16 carries. Josh Allen has never run the ball 16 times in a game in the NFL. Lamar Jackson hasn’t rushed it more than 16 times since 2019 (Week 17, 17 times). Right now, Lance is a running weapon who could also pass – that’s a good thing for FF production.

Jalen Hurts isn’t pretty, but he always makes plays because of his feet…even if that’s passing plays on the move. Lance could be the better Hurts in short order but isn’t the better Hurts right now.

Lance as a bust who never gets his passing together is still on the table. Not every story is now ‘But, Josh Allen did it!’ Josh Allen’s conversion from wild cannon-arm guy to NFL MVP in three seasons is the exception, to this point, not the rule in recent NFL history. But for a debut against a defense like Arizona…this was very encouraging for Lance’s future.

And there’s no way Jimmy G. is keeping that job as Lance redshirts (per Shanahan’s wishes) unless the 49ers blaze a win streak, and that’s not likely to happen. I suspect Lance will take over (after) if SF loses to Indy Week 7…or if they lose to Chicago Week 8. The only way SF has a chance of beating ARI-LAR Weeks 9-10 is with Lance.

Ross Jacobs has been calling for the Trey Lance revolution all along. This was the first real shot fired in that event to come.

Snap Counts of Interest:

56 = Hopkins

49 = AJ Green

33 = Kirk

29 = Moore

37 = Edmonds

29 = Conner

56 = Deebo

46 = Aiyuk

30 = Sanu

44 = Mitchell

02 = Sermon

R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Vikings 19, Lions 17

The Vikings were cruising along 16-6, trying to go up 19-6 with a few minutes left but their FG-attempt fell a yard short. Didn’t seem to matter…the Lions were struggling on offense all game, so a 10-point lead with 4+ minutes left should’ve been fine (in their minds). The Lions drove down the field after that and had to settle for a field goal to cut it to 16-9 Vikings with 2:30 left.

On the ensuing Vikings drive, Alexander Mattison was stripped of the ball and a turnover in Vikings territory. The Lions scrapped for the TD to make it 16-15 Minnesota, and then went for two…and got it. An amazing turn of events…17-16 Lions with 0:37 remaining. I thought it was over.

It wasn’t.

Kirk Cousins hit on three passes downfield, used his timeout wisely, got into long FG-range…and Greg Joseph nailed the 54-yarder as time expired for the win.

It wasn’t pretty, but the Vikings won and pulled to a lucky (2-3). The Vikings have had a couple unlucky losses, so they were owed this. I think the Vikings are one of the best 10 or so teams in football…a sleeping giant. Their defense is coming on hot and they have a nice offense, especially when Dalvin Cook is a full-go. Minnesota should be (4-1)…they should be the NFC North favorites today…they also should’ve just lost at home to the Lions.

Massive game for MIN against Carolina Week 6…a win gets them to (3-3) and thus having a tiebreaker chip over Carolina for the wild card race. The Vikings dug themselves a hole to start the season, but we see them scrambling to 9 wins…and possibly getting hot and challenging the Packers for the division down to the wire. Week 17, MIN at GB could be interesting.

You have to feel for the Lions…or more specifically, for Dan Campbell.

I watched his post-game press conference…where he was crying. I think most people probably saw a 10-second clip of him in tears, and you either felt sorry, proud, or thought he was a wuss. You and I made a snap judgment off what the media showed us.

I set out to watch the entire 9-minute post-game, because coaches crying is rare…especially a ‘tough guy’ like Dan Campbell. And I’m won over. For several reasons…

1) You rarely see a grown man/football coach cry. Campbell was crying over a football loss. To an outsider (non-Lions fan) it can seem he’s deranged, and maybe he is sometimes – but that Lions team has been so close all year, not given up in any games, were overmatched here (and every week), they were very ineffective on offense…but kept grinding and made the late comeback with a key strip turnover, gutty TD drive, the gutsy 2-point conversion…then to have the win ripped away by a 54-yard boot – when you’re passionate about your thing, that makes you wanna cry.

In a world where coaches fight the media and/or bullshit them nonstop (because 99% of them are pure idiots, so they deserve it), and where these coaches shine on fans, sine on the league, and shine on their own players with talk of ‘family’ (what family do you know kicks half of the people in the family out to go to another family every 2-3 years?) – typical NFL coaches are grown men playing a role of ‘leader’ like an actor in a movie/TV show…in a world filled with corporate coaches saying whatever is needed to keep getting paid – Dan Campbell wanted his team to have their hard-fought win, and it was ripped away, and he was sad for them. It was genuine. Nobody is as passionate as Campbell.

2) Campbell’s genuineness is going to pay dividends…he’s going to attract Dan Campbell type players over time and win with them someday if he can stay employed long enough. The modern athlete wants paid…but also wants to enjoy their workplace. Campbell’s style is not for everyone, not for most people, but he’s a unique business in that he’s the only business of its kind (in the NFL) potentially. Mike Zimmer is a tough guy coach too, but he’s an a-hole no one wants to really play for. Not with Campbell, he’s offering something different. He connects with people.

3) During the presser, Campbell answered all the questions as openly as he could. He cried in a spot…he came into the post-game presser teared up, so the team saw his emotion ahead of the presser. Most coaches mumble words and leave at these things, after a loss. Campbell stood with his head-up and had a normal conversation like a normal human being…not fake excuses and complaints/cliches like a Mike Tomlin or Kyle Shanahan might give.

4) At one point, halfway into the 9-minutes, with Campbell sniffling up his runny nose from the crying…while listening to the next incoming media question, he grabbed the bottom of his shirt and pulled it up to his face and wiped his tears and snot for relief.

When do you ever see that? A grown man, low-key crying, in-front of a media throng – and he just grabs his shirt and uses it as a Kleenex? Campbell isn’t an act – he’s real…a real human, who does real things, and isn’t afraid of what people think in the NFL…in life? He just wants to win football games…i.e. be successful at his job. Everyone thinks they want to be successful but then don’t ‘live it’, they just talk about it…Campbell is living his words. All that will pay off in time if they let it.

Most NFL teams are losers/not Super Bowl winners. Dan Campbell, and R.C. Fischer, have one less Super Bowl win as head coaches than Sean Payton, Mike McCarthy, and Andy Reid (among others). If you can’t be boastful/proud of your team winning games/titles, at least you can be proud of the fight and genuineness of the coach of the Lions (as a Lions fan). You never go to sleep thinking Campbell isn’t giving all that he’s got to win on your behalf. Campbell might sell his kidney to get a win…and you have to respect that at a certain level.

Beware of the Lions for the upset this week hosting a very good Cincy team. Be wary of betting against Detroit in any Survivor Pool pick, etc., any week because they are biting kneecaps now.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Notes on the QBs (and defenses) here…

The two defenses were attacking the offenses…this was a defensive battle, for sure.

Jared Goff (21-35 for 203 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) had his worst day as a Lion. Prior to this, Goff was flirting with a 100-range QB rating (if you’re into that). But he ran into two problems here:

(1) He lost his best OL, Frank Ragnow the prior week and it’s going to hurt them big time the rest of the season. Weeks 1-3, Goff was sacked 2.0 times per game. The last two games, without Ragnow…4 times sacked each game.

(2) The Vikings defense is really coming into its own. Three games in a row holding opponents to 17 or fewer points…including Russell Wilson and the Browns. This defense is boosted any time they’re at home…the loudest crowd in the NFL.

It doesn’t get any easier for Goff ahead…Cincy Week 6 is a very good defense, then Week 7 at LAR should be ‘interesting’ for revenge (or not).

Kirk Cousins (25-34 for 275 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) was white hot Weeks 1-3 but has fizzled the last two weeks. Blame a very good Browns defense Week 4. And credit a try-hard, aggressive Lions defense here. But mostly blame ‘no Dalvin’. This was a very good defensive effort by Detroit. A few weeks ago, the Lions D shutdown Lamar Jackson. They gave Aaron Rodgers some fits Week 2 before losing some defenders to injury in-game and fading off.

The Lions-DST is middle of the pack in a lot of defensive metrics…they are not pushovers by any means.

 -- Because Jared Goff doesn’t have the protection he needs in the pocket, he’s turning into a version of the Steelers offense/Big Ben – gotta get rid of the ball quickly. Thus, D’Andre Swift (11-51-1, 6-53-0/6) is going to become Austin Ekeler Midwest…a top receptions per game RB. But, also emerging is the quick toss to the slot WR Amon St. Brown (7-65-0/8)…who is becoming the Midwest Jakobi Meyers, nice catch counts…no TDs. Of the two, I like Meyers’ talent better…but St. Brown might be in a better spot for spike catch-count games with Detroit in constant deficit and playing in a dome a lot. 8 targets in each of the last two games for Amon-Ra.

The short passing game also means that medium-deep WRs like Kalif Raymond (0-0-0/2) are going to be feast or famine…unless he gets more bubble screens (but he ran more medium-deep here), then it’s going to be lower volume for Raymond…and Benson, Tyrell, etc.

T.J. Hockenson (2-22-0/3) is fading off…needing to stay in more for blocking but also gets attention in coverage as a noted top target to worry about (erroneously) by defenses. Plus, he’s just not that good…as I’ve been saying since his pre-Draft.

 -- What is happening to Adam Thielen (2-40-0/3)? His two catches in this game…both happened in the final 0:37 to setup the win.

Thielen dropped a 15-yard midgame. He also had a 20+ yard catch-and-run, near TD, called back due to an offensive shift.

Thielen was hot Weeks 1-3. Faded off Weeks 4-5 with Cousins, with the defenses being better. I like a buy low on Thielen…I like it a lot, because owners are predisposed to thinking he’s dull and aging. He’s not aging out/getting slower. He just didn’t have the impact he normally does for a game…it happens. He’s a great add on the cheap right now…like acquiring as a WR2-2.25.

 -- Is Tyler Conklin (2-25-0/3) going to go back to FF-viability? Probably not. We have had five games…five cards dealt, one ace (Week 3, 7-70-1/8) and four discards/crap. The data says…the Vikings don’t make TEs for FF. I thought Conklin could catch a ride here as a back-end TE1…but he’s just a random event week-to-week. Have fun guessing which week is the good one.

Snap Counts of Interest:

62 = Thielen

60 = Jefferson

40 = Osborn

47 = St Brown

46 = Raymond

44 = Hodge

22 = Cephus

21 = Benson

50 = Swift

22 = J Williams

R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Saints 33, Football Team 22

Wow…it was such a treat to watch the Browns-Chargers game Week 5. A thing of beauty. Art in the form of football. So, with the Yin and Yang of life…I also had the pleasure of getting to watch this football abomination.

Two of the worst QBs in football ‘slugging it out’…neither hitting above 50.0% completions. Two guys just throwing passes up for grabs -- and Winston’s landed more than Heinicke’s. That’s about the extent of this game.

Washington had so many coverage errors capped by allowing a Hail Mary TD at halftime where the guy who caught the TD was wide open in a pile…and two other receivers next to him could’ve caught it wide open too. It was the worst Hail Mary coverage in the history of football (hey, let’s all go to the end zone and form a socially distanced circle around the receivers and watch them catch a Hail Mary as if they were fair catching a punt)…that play was the Washington Football Team 2021 in a nutshell. They are falling apart. The schedule is about to send them in a major losing streak/stretch. They are (2-3) now…they’ll end up with 4 wins if they’re lucky by season’s end.

The Saints are really good, but like Carolina…their suck-QB takes a division winning roster down to a fringe wild card team. New Orleans is now (3-2), and we’re tracking them for 8-9 wins in the end…battling Carolina for a wild card most likely.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Saints weapons thoughts…

Jameis Winston (15-30 for 279 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT) has the lowest amount of pass attempts and passes completed of any starting QB who has played 5 games. His problems are all the receiving weapons problems for FF.

Marquez Callaway (4-85-2/8) was the recipient of the 49-yard Hail Mary …otherwise, 3-36-0/7 for the game on purpose…a nothing stat line, like most every game this season. Callaway is such a nice interior route worker and timing pass guy…but Jameis is bombs and bubbles, so Callaway cannot evolve for FF…but if you can get a Hail Mary every week…

Michael Thomas (DNP) could be back soon…or not. But he’d probably walk right into the role Callaway has, and as noted prior – not Winston’s best style of game. You’re not getting Michael Thomas 2019 with Brees upon a Thomas return. Thomas may lay out longer…he may be traded. He’s not bad to add this week if your redraft league forgot about him…he’s eligible to come back Week 7. He’s a trade chip on the hype of a return. Mostly, he’s rostered as people sat and waited for 2019 Thomas+Brees but are going to get rusty 2021 Thomas+Winston instead.

Deonte Harris (1-72-1/1) found broken coverage, got wide open, and saw a Jameis bomb on the money. Harris has been a weapon on throws for years…and he had 8 targets last week. He was trying to break out, because he’s an easy throw for Winston. This game…bomb TD to start the party – and then hurt his hamstring and missed the rest of the game after just two snaps. Harris is close to being an FF-weapon, but he always gets hurt to get derailed. He will be healthy Week 7 after the bye, so he’s a legit WR3/Flex Week 7, IF Thomas isn’t back.

 -- Washington weapons thoughts…

Taylor Heinicke (20-41 for 248 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) is similar to Jameis…randomly throwing passes, sometimes they find their mark and sometimes they find the other team – he had two picks in this game, lucky it wasn’t 5+.

Terry McLaurin (4-46-0/11) is his favorite receiver, but their 55% connection rate on targets this season let’s you know how dicey each throw is. They connected on 36% of their passes here. Last week, TML had two TDs, but both were minor miracles…that’s why I’ve been pushing to trade him vs. holding. The two TDs Week 4 made everyone hold or regret a trade they did prior. This week…you wished you would have traded him ahead of this contest. He will continue to have random WR1 and WR2-3 weeks…depending upon the coverage and the miracles hitting randomly from Heinicke.

Ricky Seals-Jones (5-41-0/9) looked really solid in place of Logan Thomas. But next week RSJ might have a 2-20-0/3 line…you never know with Heinicke. RSJ is a flyer hope any week right now. Also, you do not have to hold Logan Thomas to the death if you found a better TE the last few weeks – all you Schultz and Knox people, you can move on if you need the roster spot. Thomas may not be back for a few more weeks. What’s he come back to? Randomness.

Curtis Samuel (1-8-0, 0-0-0/1) got me excited for a moment – he was in the backfield lined up a few times right away…but he got dinged up again and only played 5 snaps. But the snaps he was in were encouraging…a lot of backfield work. I’m trying to hold Samuel in deeper leagues. Normal redraft…he’s not a must hold, because who knows if he’ll ever be healthy this year. It’s been one thing after another with him in 2021.

DeAndre Carter (4-62-0/8) is the PPR winner off a Samuel injury. He takes his role essentially, and he’s a pretty talented/stable, speedy WR.

A game Washington trailed most of the time, I figured J.D. McKissic (2-0-0, 1-8-0/40 would have seen a bunch of targets. Nope. He played his normal number of snaps, but to little avail. Last week, 7 carries and 5 catches. This week 2 carries and 1 target. I assume Week 5 was a blip. It’s the FF-life you lead with the McKissic-Hines-Gio, etc., crowd. I like David Johnson more and more in that pool of RB PPR despair.

You’re getting the TDs with Antonio Gibson (20-60-2, 2-12-0/2), which is nice, but the actual yardage performance isn’t great. Less than 70 yards rushing four games in a row. Their best OL (Schreff) is out for a while…then they lost Sam Cosmi in this game. You gotta pray the TDs keep falling his way.

 -- The Saints defense is pretty good, but erratic. Jameis doesn’t help them much. They’ve had a very easy schedule, so we don’t know how truly good they are…but they did crush Rodgers opening week. A week 6 bye then Geno Smith Week 7 is noice! Then the schedule turns rough Week 8 vs. TB on from there.

Snap Counts of Interest:

47 = A Gibson

34 = McKissic

05 = J Patterson

70 = McLaurin

58 = Carter

51 = Humphries

46 = Callaway

40 = Stills

25 = Ty Montgomery

08 = Hogan

02 = Deonte Harris

R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Packers 25, Bengals 22

This will be known (for a few weeks, until we forget completely) as the game with all the missed field goal attempts to win it. And it was a crazy ending…because football is the best TV drama in all the world. That and 90-Day Fiancé. I digress…

What all ‘crazy missed FG attempts’ storyline will hide is – we have entered a period of time where the Cincinnati Bengals are as good as the Green Bay Packers. Cincy played right with Green Bay…and shoulda/coulda won. This wasn’t just a blip, a fluke…this was the Bengals being as good as the Packers. Welcome to 2021. It’s not that the Packers are bad…it’s that Cincy is that good…not great…good.

The Bengals are (3-2)…they should be (4-1)/(5-0). Two close losses so far this season. They also are lucky to not be (2-3)/(1-4) as well. But (3-2) fits them right now…this is a 10-win team that has a shot to make a wild card this year. We’re projecting 8-10 range for wins now looking out over their schedule. Four games with BAL and CLE ahead, with LAC and KC on the schedule ahead as well…not easy.

The Packers are also good, but beatable…for now. When/if they get LT David Bakhtiari and Jaire Alexander (and he’s an if) back then they are better than the Bengals. If the Packers make it through the first 6 games at (5-1) and then get Bakhtiari back Week 7…the Pack are one of the true powers in the NFC, especially if Jaire can get back…which means like the 5-8th best team in the AFC. A tough schedule ahead, The Computer is projecting 10-11 wins for Green Bay right now.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- This is going to be an odd way to start this player analysis…

Davante Adams (11-206-1/16) had a MONSTER game, per usual. The Bengals top CB is Chidobe Awuzie (6 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PDs). Awuzie was on Adams quite a bit. So, process this statement: I think Awuzie played Adams as well as anyone I’ve seen in a while. Awuzie is a Pro Bowler, or should be, and possible Defensive Player of the Year candidate (but he won’t even be on the ballot, most voters don’t know he’s a real NFL player…they think he’s a made name).

He’ll get as many DPOY votes as the amount of laughs I get out of the incessant Sunday NFL game’s Kate McKinnon Verizon commercials = which is zero (which is a shame because she’s wonderful on SNL).

The reason the Bengals are ‘good’ now, the resurgence of Cincy is not just Joe Burrow…it’s the defensive makeover. Awuzie was a big get in free agency. The Bengals have allowed the 5th lowest TD passes against this season (6 TDs). They are #7 in sacks so far this season. Top 10 against the run (yds allowed). #7 best in PPG allowed. This is a very good defense and Awuzie is a big reason why.

So, how is Awuzie so great and allowed 206 yards to Davante? Two reasons…

1) There was a stretch where Awuzie left the field for a drive…and Rodgers went right to work and worked Adams the whole drive, including for their lone TD.

2) Sometimes Awuzie was not on Adams, and Rodgers went right at that. But Rodgers was mostly avoiding Adams when Awuzie was straight up on him. But sometimes Awuzie would start on Adams, but hand him off to the safety going deep and then Rodgers would work that too.

Straight up, Awuzie allowed 6 catches for 54 yards and no TDs officially…with a pick. And the big yards on a late game semi-miracle throw and Adams catch was tightly covered by Awuzie.

Fear Awuzie for your WR matchups…until he hands them off to burn their safeties. Respect Awuzie as one of the top corners in the game.

Imagine if Dallas kept Awuzie…?

 -- Onto WRs that I don’t respect…

Ja’Marr Chase (6-159-1/10) caught another long TD pass…so the gold jacket is being fitted for him among the football social media.

On Chase’s TD play, Burrow escaped a sack, scrambled around and coverage broke down. He heaved it to Chase deep, the DB came over and covered it nicely as he dove/reached out with a big fly swat to knockdown the incoming floater…but he whiffed on it, so it landed in Chase’s hands as a surprise and Chase then turned around and walked the extra 20+ yards into the end zone.

Chase is not doing anything special that I see, still…but I have to respect that luck keeps going his way. It will dry up but it’s working now. Side note: Rookie CB Eric Stokes (4 tackles, 1 PD) ate Chase for lunch in this game when he was on him. History will show Chase was a stupid draft pick at #5…not taking Sewell, but also not taking Stokes (for a lot of teams) in the top 10.

When I watch this Bengals passing game, I am impressed way more with Tee Higgins (5-32-0/7). And because Higgins missed two games with minor injury and then returned Week 5 and didn’t score a TD…his FF-stock price is dropping. I’m all-in on him at a discount. He trades like a WR2…I think he’s a WR1 all day long. Buy him for WR2-2.25 valuations …or try.

 -- Joe Burrow (26-38 for 281 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) has been pretty efficient and winning this season, but it still doesn’t look like he’s back to his old self yet. If he ever gets back in the groove fully…Cincy is a playoff team.

 -- I’m not going to comment deeply on the RBs in this game…they did what anyone would expect…

A.J. Dillon (8-30-0, 4-49-1/4) is the best backup RB in football and is now catching passes like a beast.

Samaje Perine (11-59-0, 4-24-1/5) fills in just fine as needed if Mixon is ever down.

 -- Many of you know I like Bengals rookie PK Evan McPherson (2/2 XP, 0/2 FGs) but I got a few emails post-game/week on whether it’s time to give up on McPherson .

He missed two game-winning FG attempts, yes…but note that one was from 57 yards and it was good from 70 but fully smacked the post. No shame there. His next one, he thought he made…kicked it so high it went near the top of the post so it was a judgment call, and McPherson and his holder and some teammates were celebrating the make…but the refs disagreed.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Chase

55 = Boyd

47 = Tee

56 = Uzomah

21 = Sample

41 = Perine

19 = Mixon

44 = A Jones

21 = AJ Dillon

38 = Tonyan

29 = M Lewis

Ross Jacobs

FFM

15 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Ravens 31, Colts 26

Where to start with this one? There's so much to sort out.

I've seen plenty of storylines written about this game, and I don't believe any of them truly capture what happened here, so I'm going to do my best to paint this picture as accurately as I can.

The Colts jumped out to an early 7-0 lead after Jonathan Taylor broke a simple screen pass for a 73 yard TD. On their next drive, Indy was moving the ball well and looked to take an even larger lead, but the drive was halted by a sack and fumble on Wentz.

The two teams would drive crappy drives for the next several minutes until Baltimore was finally able to get on the board with a FG during a 2-minute drive where Indy was playing a soft zone coverage. But Baltimore left too much time for the Colts and they managed to get a FG of their own to make it 10-3 Colts at the half.

Indianapolis got the ball after halftime and promptly scored to take a 16-3 lead after Michael Pittman made an amazing catch on a poorly thrown ball in coverage, broke a tackle, and got into the endzone. The Colts missed the extra point.

On the next possession, Baltimore finally put together a good drive, but were stopped at the 1 yard line when Lamar fumbled the ball. The Colts picked it up and nearly scored but a penalty was thrown for an illegal forward lateral.

The Colts again took the ball right down the field with more help from Pittman and Taylor and scored again to make it 22-3. They went for 2 and didn't get it. Things were looking very bad for the Ravens.

Baltimore got the ball back and scored on their next drive after a backup corner was beaten on a double move by Marquise Brown. The Ravens also went for 2 and didn't get it. 22-9 Colts at the start of the 4th quarter.

Indy once again went right down the field but stalled and kicked a FG for a safe 25-9 lead. This is where the trouble began.

With 12 minutes left in the game and only a 16 point lead, the Colts coaching staff apparently felt comfortable enough to start running a prevent defense to keep the Ravens in front of them. They had been moving the ball well so far and likely felt like even if the Ravens scored that they could just run the clock down afterwards.

They did manage to keep the ball in front of them, but Lamar just took checkdown after easy checkdown and marched right down the field in short order to make it 25-17 after a Mark Andrews TD and 2 point conversion.

Indy got the ball back and proceeded to run the clock down as planned. Things were looking good until they stalled and had to attempt another FG. Their kicker had been dealing with a hip injury all night and held his own, but the Ravens blocked the kick to give themselves a chance with about 6 minutes left.

Right down the field went the Ravens as Lamar was able to just pick apart the soft defense of the Colts. He nearly fumbled the ball again at the 1 yard line but was luckily ruled down. Andrews would score yet again and also convert a second 2-pt conversion to tie the game.

40 seconds to go and the Colts had one last chance to win the game. A stupid penalty by a Baltimore defender would give them a 1st down and a couple plays later they lined up for a 47 yard FG attempt to win the game. But the injured kicker missed again and the game was headed to OT.

Baltimore won the coin toss to receive and went right down the field against another soft defense, and a TD pass to Marquise Brown sealed the win.

It was a wild game and trying to sort out what happened is complex.

Most people naively look at the box score and the huge comeback and attribute all of it to Lamar Jackson's brilliance. There is a large faction of NFL analysts that believe he can do no wrong and that he's perpetually underrated as a QB and player in general.

That isn't really a correct view of these events in my opinion. Baltimore really struggled to move the ball against a decent but not great Colts defense all night...until Indy had a huge lead and started playing soft to try and run out the clock. It's a theme we've seen more and more in recent years. Sometimes getting too large of a lead early is a curse because it almost forces you into a certain style of play that is too passive and helps the opposing team come back.

All these passing yards that Lamar piled up...he doesn't remotely do that under normal circumstances. He's an ok NFL passer, not bad, definitely not great...ok. If his legs weren't so dangerous he would struggle even more, but since teams are worried about him taking off he is afforded more time to throw and wide open lanes. I'm not knocking him for that. It's part of his game and the massive benefit of having a mobile QB. But that doesn't automatically mean he's a great passer and can hang with the Herbert's and Mahomes's of the world. Of course, brain dead football society that we have these days, I'm sure the fans and voters will give him an MVP because they equate fantasy stats with real life success. Sad but true.

Now having said all that I should also point out that while Baltimore was very fortunate to win this game after they got down (two scores, two 2-pt conversions, multiple missed Indy FG's, and getting the ball first in OT), Indy was very fortunate to have gotten a huge lead. They were playing even with the Ravens but not that much better. Their first two scores were a long screen pass that Taylor broke and a wild catch and score by Pittman off of a terribly thrown ball. They got a Lamar fumble at their 1 yard line that turned into another score for a 14 point swing. This wasn't domination by the Colts so much as it was them getting fortunate.

Then the luck swung the other way. That's life and football for you.

So to sum it all up, I would say that the Ravens are a good but not great team. They have had to come back on two not great teams in the Raiders and Colts, came back on a suddenly vulnerable Chiefs team, barely survived the pathetic Lions, and smacked the struggling Broncos. They are currently 9th in the NFL in scoring (with a lot of help) but they've played several really weak defenses so far to prop them up. They are tied for 14th in defensive ppg and again have been fortunate in the schedule so far. The schedule is about to get a lot harder, and I don't think the Ravens are going to handle it very well. They look like a 9-8 team to me or somewhere in that range.

The Colts are now 1-4 and falling farther behind the Titans in the AFC South race. They are 21st in points per game and 23rd on defense, but unlike the Ravens, they have been very unfortunate in their early schedule. They've had to play the Seahawks, Rams, Titans, and Ravens, all .500 or better teams, and they've had to do it while struggling with injuries, particularly to their offensive line.

They are not a bad team. I caution anyone against thinking playing against the Colts is a free win. It is not. They are essentially the same team as last year, only now they have had some bad luck go against them in various ways. The schedule is about to get significantly easier, and I expect the Colts to start to bounce back especially if they can get their offensive line healthy again. I'm not sure they can catch the Titans, but I am quite sure that they'll at least close the gap a little.

Fantasy Notes

--I hammered Lamar Jackson (37-43 for 442 yards, 4 TD/0 INT, 14-62-0) quite hard for how overrated this performance was in real life football, but as a fantasy QB he is usually gold. Just don't get used to passing numbers like this. It was a fluke event and one not likely to repeat.

Before this game, in his last 20 appearances Lamar had only thrown over 300 yards once...the prior week against Denver. He had exactly 1 TD pass in every game this year until he got 4 here. In these past two games he's attempted a combined 80 passes (40/g). In his first 3 games of the year he averaged 29. Last year he averaged 23.5 attempts per game and only threw more than 30 passes twice.

The higher number of pass attempts is likely to stay actually because Baltimore's running game absolutely sucks with all these decrepit RB's taking carries. So Lamar is having to throw more to try and keep them in games. Unfortunately I think his efficiency is about to take a nose dive as he plays better teams and they realize that they don't have to fear the running game anymore. Once defenses start forcing Lamar to pass into tight windows he's going to struggle.

I'm afraid all of the “Lamar is an elite passer” people are in for a rude awakening in a few weeks. Bet they don't have anything to say when he starts to struggle though. They only come out feeling like they can yap when he garbage times his way to the only 400 yard game of his career.

--Mark Andrews (11-147-2/13) was due for a big game, but this was ridiculous. Again, this is mostly the product of a very strange game flow. Andrews isn't the new Darren Waller. Well, maybe he is considering Waller only has one big game this year and a bunch of duds too...

--Marquise Brown (9-125-2/10) now has 5 TD's on the year, a TD in every game but one so far (where he dropped 2-3 more), and 11 TD's in his last 11 games. This is the guy you want from this offense. He's Lamar's BFF in the red zone, the #6 WR on the year in ppr, and a couple dropped TD's away from being a top 2-3 guy. Some of his numbers here were also pushed by the high number of pass attempts and going into OT (where he scored one of his TD's), but all that is beside the point. The guy is just scoring constantly now, and there's no sense nitpicking it. I doubt he finishes this quite this high, but he should be able to maintain his WR1 pace regardless.

--If I haven't already made it clear since week 1, you don't want any part of this running game. These guys are all atrocious. Ty'Son Williams is the only guy I have any interest in, but he's been marginalized and pushed to the side. You could even tell here that he's now running very tentatively, as if the coaches have hammered him to hold onto the ball at all costs. It's robbing him of his explosiveness. I have no respect for how Harbaugh and the Ravens staff has handled the offense this year. They are about to get their just desserts and they deserve every bit of what's coming.

--Carson Wentz (25-35 for 402 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) went over 400 yards here, but it was quite fluky. He didn't do much to help push those numbers. It was a couple of ridiculous catch and runs by Taylor and an utterly ridiculous catch by Pittman that helped push him this high. He's still playing reasonably smart, safe, game manager football though, and as I talked about a couple weeks ago, he's a decent #2 to have right now as a safety blanket.

--Jonathan Taylor (15-53-1, 3-116-1/4) was the Colts fantasy star of the day after breaking a screen pass for 73 yards. As always though I want to caution people that think this can keep up. It won't, not unless something changes. He's still not getting the touches he deserves, and he doesn't have much room to work when he does get the ball. Things broke right for him here, but I worry about him going forward a bit. If the offensive line gets healthy he could finish strong against a weak schedule however. You just have to wait and pray with him for now.

--RC and I have been pushing the rise of Michael Pittman (6-89-1/7) for weeks now. He looks fantastic, a true #1 receiver for Indy. If you haven't seen his TD catch from this game, do yourself a favor and go look it up. There aren't many receivers in the league that can go over top of coverage like this, snatch the ball away from the defender with the ball well behind him, break a tackle, and score. He is probably a WR1.5 rest of the schedule with some outside hope of climbing higher.

--Outside of those two guys I don't think you want another piece of this offense. There's not a ton of volume to be had and Wentz is spreading the ball around pretty well. Parris Campbell (4-56-0/6) was back and had a decent game, but I still don't see the old explosiveness from him. He's just ok now and with TY Hilton coming back he probably goes back to being WR4 on this offense.

IDP Notes

--Rookie Jayson Oweh (3 tackles, 1 sack), who apparently is going by Odefe now, now has 3 sacks on the year, and I can confidently say this was his first impressive one. He got a great jump off the snap and blew past the tackle for a sack and fumble that stopped an important Colts drive. I still haven't seen the athleticism shining through as much, but he's starting to put the pieces together a little and impact the game at moments.

Snap Counts of Interest

66 = Marquise Brown

64 = Devin Duvernay

50 = James Proche

20 = Sammy Watkins

36 = Latavius Murray

20 = Devonta Freeman

14 = Ty'Son Williams

50 = Jack Doyle

31 = Mo Alie-Cox

36 = Jonathan Taylor

26 = Nyheim Hines

10 = Marlon Mack

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Eagles 21, Panthers 18

I’m not sure how the Eagles won this game. They were getting thoroughly outplayed for three quarters. They were down 15-3 at one point…and the offense looked stuck in mud. But then they woke up a bit…aided by Sam Darnold going back to being old Sam Darnold and throwing easy picks for DBs like he was tossing beads at Mardi Gras, and then an Eagles blocked punt setting them up in the red zone with 4+ minutes left down 18-13 was the full turn…Eagles go onto score and win the game because Darnold can’t get a 2+ minute drive to get into position for a tie or snatch the win – he throws a pick right away and ended any real hope of a comeback. Darnold sucks. Better than he was -- but still sucks. Davis Mills is playing better football.

The Eagles are not a bad team, but they are like the Ravens – on purpose they kinda suck because of their lineup of weapons (by coach’s choice) and several OL injuries, but then the elite mobile QB just improvises them back into games and gives them a chance. Huge game hosting TB on TNF this week…a game they can win.  If they do, they have a real shot at playoff hopes. We see them finishing 7-8 wins at this stage, but 9 wins is on the table as NYG and WSH fade away (and they play them 4 times from Weeks 12-17, with NYJ wedged in there).

Carolina has a very good team/roster; except they have a bottom five QB…so they will fall short. We are projecting Carolina for 7-9 wins but could be 10+ wins if they traded for a real QB right now…but they won’t.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- First things first, let me tell you how dumb Miles Sanders (11-45-0, 5-6-0/5) is…

Usually, I am howling about how overrated he is…but now add to it he’s a dope, and almost cost PHI this game…AND may have kicked open the door for Kenneth Gainwell (2-16-0, 1-8-0/3)…

So, the Eagles took the lead with 2:38 left…kicked off to CAR, and then quickly picked off Darnold, setting themselves up with the ball at the CAR 43 with 1:56 left. Just one first down and they can then run out the clock…the Panthers had all their timeouts left, so Philly was going three straight run plays (likely) to strip CAR of all their timeouts.

1st & 10 = Pitch sweep to Sanders, who goes off tackle…but it’s congested so he kicks it outside and keeps going to the sideline. Greg Olsen (on commentary) is saying GET DOWN but Sanders doesn’t even try he just jumps a defender and goes ignorant-of-the-time/situation out of bounds. Olsen almost loses it. The clock stops, Carolina preserves a timeout…still with three.

2nd & 4 = Handoff off tackle to Sanders, and he breaks through for a 1st-down but starts aiming towards the sidelines but is tackled before we see what he would have done if faced with going out of bounds again.  

Sanders got the first down, the prior play with Sanders going out of bounds is forgotten/forgiven. Carolina is forced to use their first timeout…so this is all under control for Philly now. Run two plays safe, make CAR use their last two timeouts and then run a 3rd play and get a field goal, likely leaving CAR with about :20 seconds to go the length of the field for a TD with no timeouts after the ensuing kickoff.

1st & 10 from the CAR 18 = Sanders pitch to the right, he tries to avoid a tackler and goes out of bounds again. Greg Olsen went apoplectic, eventually saying ‘they gotta take him out, right?’ And they did…Sanders was pulled off the field. The RB coach was talking to Sanders for the next minute+ on the sidelines. The other announcer says…the Sanders basically gave Carolina five timeouts to try and stay in the game. Gainwell closed out the game…being sure to run/stay/fall down in bounds.

If there wasn’t enough frustration with Sanders going into this game, he just added more heat to the fire.

I don’t know if Philly will make the move to Gainwell, but it would likely begin with Sanders ceremonially starting and then Gainwell playing more snaps than him after that… but if we see Gainwell starting on TNF, then the move has been made. Bad first start facing the Bucs, however.

I would like to daydream that Gainwell leaps Sanders on the depth chart, but Sanders played 50+ snaps here and Gainwell 16…and if not for the stupidity at the end the gap would have been wider. So, if Gainwell is coming on for this coaching staff…you coulda fooled me on that the first 58+ minutes of the game.

The bizarre Sanders end of this game is a reason for some hope Gainwell is going to move into more of a 50-50 split with Sanders with the potential of taking over…whatever that means, for FF the lead PHI RB hasn’t been great…but maybe KG changes that? I know there is a lot of smoke the past few weeks and months of anti-Sanders, pro-Gainwell coming from the staff (supposedly) and local media.

 -- Carolina’s RB situation isn’t changing…Christian McCaffrey (DNP) will be the guy all the time, when healthy. I believe he plays Week 6. And I will tell you why in the next few paragraphs…

Chuba Hubbard (24-101-0, 5-33-0/6) was just the runner in Week 4, but here in Week 5 he was the runner/pass catcher as well. What changed? I don’t know. Rodney Smith went for 5 catches last week…but this week/game, no Smith touches and then Smith was cut by the team Tuesday. You likely do that if CMC is going to return.

Hubbard has shaky hands, so Smith had the catches last week…but Royce Freeman (3-2-0, 1-6-0/2) was in on 3rd-down quickly here as ‘that guy’ but he is so slow now that they just kept feeding Chuba in all phases and it worked OK enough.

CMC is very likely back Week 6…and Chuba is his for-sure handcuff.

 -- All the odes written about Sam Darnold (24-37 for 177 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs) after 3 games…they’re all drying up. He was THEIR (the media) MVP candidate after three weeks, now we see articles about what a mistake it was to trade for Darnold. The media lives in a world one week at a time only…whatever just happened is everything for forever, with THEIR guys.

Darnold is getting to a tougher schedule, and teams now see what he’s doing with his new team (it’s a new playbook, etc.)…so, this whole situation is going downhill to more losses as he drags Moore-Anderson with him. CMC back will help some. Darnold is playing better than the past versions of himself, but all the other QBs are so much better or are improving so much faster that it leaves Darnold as arguably the worst 1-2-3 starting QB in the league any given week.

Jalen Hurts (22-37 for 198 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 9-30-2) is 10x the QB Darnold is, but Hurts still gets the obligatory `Is Hurts the long term answer at QB for Philly’ national article every week. Dak used to get that too, years ago, as they discussed how Wentz was better in division for the future. That ‘take’ aged well…

 -- Watching the Hurts-DeVonta Smith (7-77-0/9) connection in this game…yaawwwnnn. I always expect to see some excitement, some sweet Justin Jefferson like work from DeVonta, but all I’m getting is vanilla Jakobi Meyers type work…he’s open occasionally, Hurts throws it to him (because…would you throw to Reagor if you had a choice?), DeVonta makes a solid catch and is quickly tackled.

I don’t see any ‘wow’ factor from DeVonta at all.

The ‘wow’ factor WR for Philly is Quez Watkins (3-48-0/3) but they use Quez as more deep ball decoy than purposed weapon.

 -- Speaking of dull…Zach Ertz (1-7-0/6). One catch on 6 targets. Ertz is aging fast. My only interest, and not even that interesting perhaps, is Ertz playing without Dallas Goedert (2-28-0/3) on TNF this week. If Goedert can go…then far less interested in an Ertz spot start.

 -- MVP of this game for Carolina…Jeremy Chinn (4 tackles). His IDP numbers are way down as he plays coverage more, not quasi-linebacker as much, but he was everywhere pressuring plays and sniffing out near-turnovers. He’s an excellent player who has been ‘meh’ for IDP results this year after blowing them up last year.

 -- When the Eagles-DST plays bottom half of the league teams, they are not bad. Held ATL to 6pts, SF to 17 and Carolina to 18pts. KC and DAL popped 40+ on them.

This week with Tampa Bay/Brady…probably closer to 30+ allowed.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Chuba

14 = Freeman

11 = R Smith

45 = Ian Thomas

27 = Tremble

50 = Sanders

16 = Gainwell

45 = Goedert

40 = Ertz

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Chargers 47, Browns 42

As a football scout, as a professional…watching this game a 2nd-time, on tape, at my own pace, rewinding and rewatching certain plays – this was a true piece of art. The best football game that I’ve seen in a long time.

I don’t mean ‘best’ as in ‘most entertaining’ like witnessing a crazy hail mary finish or weird fumble when you thought the clock was all but running out or there was some 20+ point comeback in the 4th-quarter. I mean, this was true art – two great football teams playing great football at each other, both sides of the ball playing at a high level, but the offensive play calling and execution was so brilliant, the QBs so smart, the players so one-upping making big plays…the defenses couldn’t contain them. In a 47-42 game, really good defense was actually displayed here – just the offenses were *insert Chef’s Kiss here*.

I walked away from this game, for the first time, really thinking the Cleveland Browns were legit. I thought they were more likely the also-rans of the great AFC teams…BUF and LAC, and maybe KC…especially after CLE lost it to KC Week 1. Now, I ‘believe’. This was as great a performance from a football team you could have asked for…and that’s with the Browns playing with a weak WR group and losing Denzel Ward 9 plays into the game (which was probably the difference in the game).

The Browns are legit.

The Bills and the Chargers are legit.

The Chiefs and the power teams in the NFC are cute stories not deserving mention in the BUF-LAC-CLE war ongoing.

The Chargers are this good -- beating KC and CLE in successive weeks…and they are missing their ace linebacker (Murray) and top OL LT (Brian Bulaga).

Unreal game, I don’t want to step on it by any nitpicking discussion of ‘plays’. Just take a few hours away from reality and watch this game as a fan of great football/teams.

The Browns are going to win the AFC North and the Chargers will win the AFC West, end of story (barring QB injury). Getting the home field for LAC or CLE or BUF is HUGE. LAC is hindered if they have to travel to CLE or BUF (or KC) in January. The reverse is not as true. LAC gets to the Super Bowl ONLY (likely) if they have the #1 seed/home field every game.

If LAC beat PIT Week 11, whereas BUF lost to PIT Week 1…that might be the edge for the title for LAC, right there.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- As I mentioned earlier, this was a stellar performance by both teams. So, let’s first discuss the giant dud in this game…Odell Beckham Jr. (2-20-0/3).

The Browns are SO MUCH better when OBJ isn’t there or when he’s deemphasized…like this game. In every big spot in the 2nd-half, Baker wasn’t even looking at him. So, as the game went, OBJ started running half-hearted routes and slow-walking back to the huddles, etc.

That guy, OBJ, is a piece of crap…and should be gone from the league because he’s a waste of snaps and a locker room cancer. He’s also a cautionary tale for Kadarius Toney. If I were the Giants, I would trade for or sign the most respected WR on the market and add him this year or this offseason…and pay that guy to be Toney’s personal shadow/coach/motivator/’sponsor’.

If I were the owner of the Giants, I would pay Larry Fitzgerald $500K per month for the next 15 months to be Toney’s personal WR coach (and coach of the other WRs too, but specifically for Toney). And let Fitz do color commentary for the Giants games too so he can start getting ready for his future.

What was I saying? Oh, yeah…OBJ blows. And I think the Browns will cut him if they can’t trade him in the next few weeks. Welcome to Dallas, OBJ…I can see it now.

Early on in this game, the Browns drove down the field and had a 4th & 2 in the red zone, and Baker hit OBJ with an easy over the middle pass for the conversion and then some…but OBJ looked up to see what was going on and treated the incoming pass like someone hurled a wet bar of soap shaped in the form of a football at him. Think I’m kidding? https://youtu.be/Meg9auAjMRk

 -- You know who looked terrific here…I can’t believe I’m saying this…David Njoku (7-149-1/7).

The Browns ran several smart plays using their weak WRs and strong RBs to their advantage. Defenses have to chase the WRs, no matter who they are. They also have to overplay the run game. Njoku would just slip out in to the WIDE open and be available and then speeded off after the catch a few times, including one 71 yards, which was more Njoku running than air yards.

All I know is, in my mind (mistaken memory), all I remember is the Browns playing 2-3 TEs a lot…and if anyone did anything for FF it was Austin Hooper (0-0-0/0). But in the last two games, Hooper has 1 catch on 5 targets, while Njoku has 9 catches on 9 targets (most of that in this game).

The trends say this is just a blip, but my brain is saying…with this weak group of pass game options, Njoku might be ready to take a step up as a bye week fill-in, etc., or maybe better than that. He’s mostly available over all FF waivers, but if he has another pop game next week…then everyone comes shopping.

YTD Snap counts:

237 = Hooper (67.5%)

219 = Njoku (62.4%)

143 =Bryant (40.7%)

YTD FF Half-PPR PPG:

9.8 = Njoku (most of it Week 5)

4.6 = Hooper

2.0 = Bryant

Two games with 75+ yards this season, and three games under 20 yards.

All Njoku’s targets in 2021 so far: https://youtu.be/fTJXHuyeWL0

 -- You know I love, and you love Mike Williams (8-165-2/16)…and many FFMers own him in Dynasty and/or redraft…so, we LOVED this game. Just note it was made possible by Denzel Ward going down 9 snaps in and then Williams (and Herbert roasting the backup corner, A.J. Green). There was some good fortune here along with Williams ballin’.

 -- Austin Ekeler (17-66-2, 3-53-1/5) is straight fire right now, and I thought the Browns would clamp him down to a marginal game here…so, I’m an idiot (not that I would ever bench him, just thought he’d have a lid on him). Ruminate on how dumb you think I am later; I want to ask…did you notice who the #2 RB was in this game?

53 snaps = Ekeler

26 snaps = Joshua Kelley (2-17-0, 0-0-0/0)…memba him?

00 snaps = Roundtree (only played special teams)

Kelley got the push over Roundtree this week, with Justin Jackson hurt (as always). And Kelley looked good here…legit. He was playing in several key spots.

I bring this up because…you know how everyone goes crazy off waivers for the #2 RB when the #1 RB goes down on Sunday/Monday, are you familiar with this…have you heard about this thing? Yeah, it’s true, I’m not joking…people love #2 RBs when the #1 RB goes down. ESPECIALLY if it’s on a top offense with a great O-Line.

What happens if Austin Ekeler gets hurt for 2-4 weeks?

I’m just sayin…

My vote/the guy I’m watching is a still talented Kelley – and he looked darn good running the ball here.

  -- Justin Herbert (26-43 for 398 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) was wonderful here, but I need to point out that Baker Mayfield (23-32 for 305 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) subtly went toe-to-toe with Herbert, with far inferior weapons.

This may have been the best game of Baker’s NFL career…the turning point where he should be looked at as a top 10 QB, regardless of weaker FF numbers. Looked at as a guy who can win a Super Bowl. He’s not all the way there yet, but he’s getting there. Having to keep up with Hebert against a really top-notch pass defense is not easy…and Baker was out there slinging. Still QB2 for FF…but he’s got top talent. If he ever gets rid of OBJ and gets better WRs to work with, who knows if he’ll start popping for FF.

 -- Baker can’t pop for FF because the Browns are such a run-heavy team, with good reason. Nick Chubb (25-161-1, 1-9-0/1) is the best runner of the ball in the NFL outside of Henry and maybe Cook. And Kareem Hunt (12-61-2, 5-28-0/6) is the heart and soul of this offense.

You beat the Chargers by running it at them…CLE had 35 carries for 230 rush yards and 3 TDs, 6.6 ypc here.

Good news for your FF RB facing this LAC defense…so, next week it’s Baltimore. Well, I take that back then…that’s a win for the Chargers run defense.

 -- I don’t look at either DST here as a bust just because they both went off on each other.

The Browns have some serious firepower on their D-Line…turning formerly washed up things into something like Malik McDowell (1 tackle, 1.0 sack) and Takk McKinley (1 tackle). Even Jadeveon Clowney (DNP) has played better here. No Clowney, no Ward…not at full strength for this one.

I’d argue you could use the CLE-DST the rest of the season, every week…except Week 13 bye and Week 16 at GB isn’t a treat. Week 6 v. ARI is them with Kyler iffy and their starting center down.

The Chargers-DST had several occasions where their backs were against the wall and they stopped CLE or held their drive to a field goal. They’ve given up stuff to KC and CLE this season…not a crime. Held down WSH-DAL-LV. When Kenneth Murray returns, then they’re even better.

This LAC-CLE game in a 3+ minute viewing: https://youtu.be/AiyJI5Kmcro

Snap Counts of Interest:

50 = J Cook

40 = Parham

53 = Ekeler

26 = Kelley

52 = Hooper

46 = Njoku

31 = H Bryant

58 = OBJ

49 = DPJ

34 = Higgins

03 = Felton

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Patriots 25, Texans 22

The Patriots were my Survivor pool pick of the week. I didn’t love it, but I didn’t love much of anything (bettor wise) this week and going against Houston is not a bad way to try and survive…you’d think.

I shoulda lost…I shoulda been wiped out of my big Survivor pool. The Texans should’ve beaten the Patriots here. And there was some luck involved for Houston, but honestly the Texans dropped several INTs plus a dropped TD pass (leading to an FG instead)…plus missed XPs. This was Houston’s game, they led 22-9 early 3rd-quarter, but they botched it away in the end.

Houston gave CLE a tussle Week 2. They shoulda beat NE here. Had Tyrod Taylor stayed healthy, the Texans might be in the AFC South race to the end. They aren’t terrible. However, they just lost LT Laremy Tunsil for several weeks…so, the fantasy is all slipping away. In the end, the Texans should win 3-5 games. They’re scrappy good.

New England (2-3 now) should’ve lost and sunk to (1-4)…with all that free agent spending getting them nowhere. This team stinks and is uninspired by Belichick. It’s a sinking ship. The Pats are on their way to 5 +/- wins and a lot of soul searching…but the owner will do nothing but watch the ship sink, slowly (while getting special massages in Florida to ease the pain). Belichick has earned the right to go down with the ship.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The Patriots backfield report…

Damien Harris (14-58-1) is the starter, and he looks terrific running the ball. The problem is…he’s not involved in the passing game (for PPR peeps) and the Pats O-Line is devastated with injury right now…and Harris is a little banged up. He’s the for-sure main carry guy but questionable this week and in a bad environment for FF production, facing a top run defense (DAL).

Rhamondre Stevenson (11-23-0) got sprinkled in to get himself up to speed, but he looked very tentative…like a rookie would. He is the hammer…the short yardage, late game salt away bull…eventually. If Harris is out this week, Stevenson would take over main carry duties…but might be over his head at this point.

Brandon Bolden (2-25-0, 4-6-0/4) is playing a lot of the James White role with White gone. 4.7 targets per game and 4.3 catches per game since White left. If you see NE in a lot of passing situations this week, with a Dallas team that doesn’t cover the RB well…Bolden might get 5+ catches in a game script gone his way. He’s a long shot sleeper PPR start Week 6…not a sure thing.

 -- I’ve written about/spoken of Brandon Bolden for Week 6 as some PPR hope more than a few times this week, but you know who might be a better flyer Week 6 play…and beyond, for bye weeks? A guy I’ve never mentioned before, I don’t think… What about David Johnson (2-5-0, 5-46-0/6)?

What caught my attention here is…DJ is the 3rd-down back for HOU, but he’s also lining up as a wideout in 4-5 receiver sets and they are actually throwing him real passes on real routes. I mean, first Cordarrelle Patterson…and now this?

First, watch three highlight plays from this game and (a) tell me DJ doesn’t still have some juice in the tank, and (b) notice the different ways they get him the ball…

It’s an 11-minute video but you need only skip to two sections for 30 seconds…

0:40: Back-to-back plays they will show you

4:16: 3rd & long conversion

https://youtu.be/MgHmJVGtbqA

With Davis Mills at QB…DJ is starting to get used in the passing game more – the 6th most targeted RB in the NFL the last two weeks (10 targets). When you get the ball in the hands of DJ in the open field, magic could happen.

Most of these 3rd-down/satellite backs are in a similar boat…

They play 30-40% of the snaps in games. They play more if more passing downs/hurry up offense is needed. But the last 2 weeks, since Davis Mills, DJ has gone from 30-40% of the snaps to 50%+…in part, because he’s running real routes along with backfield work.

Johnson has led the Houston backfield in snap count for four straight weeks.

We’re moving DJ to our ‘outta nowhere’ RB of the week (Week 6) along with Brandon Bolden for the same vibe…team in a deficit, likely, needing to throw a bunch and they are their team’s main guy for that.

But wait…there’s more. As an added bonus to your purchase of DJ3K, you also get…

1) He faces Arizona next week. If you don’t understand what that means, then…

2) You could run with a Bolden, McKissic, Hines, etc., over DJ this week…pick your satellite back poison…but only one of those names could be traded to a better place in a week or two+. Johnson’s contract is over after this season and if Houston isn’t going anywhere in 2021…why aren’t the Chargers or Chiefs or Ravens or Bills on the line?

David Johnson could be a team’s Kareem Hunt…or Cordarrelle Patterson. And he’d cost just a 6th-7th-rounder. But I’m sure Devonta Freeman will be fine…

 -- Davis Mills (21-29 for 312 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) outplayed Mac Jones (23-30 for 231 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) here. When the Pats got down, and Jones had to play some real QB throwing downfield…he should’ve had 3-4 picks, but the Texans defenders can’t catch things throw right at them, apparently.

As of now…I was WAY off on Davis Mills. I thought he was a joke. He’s actually playing good football. He’s Taylor Heinicke-ish, not a franchise guy at this stage, but I thought he’d be a flat-out bust. He is not. He out-Jimmy Garoppolo’d Mac Jones here…in a battle of QBs who must have gone to the Jimmy Garoppolo training program as youth…or are the secret offspring of Mr. Garoppolo after he had Jimmy. They both play the same, throw the same…only Mills has a little more athleticism than Jones.

It’s possible Justin Fields is the 6th best QB from this 2021 draft right now…he can’t complete a basic forward pass, while Mills is dropping 300+ yards on Belichick…as a rookie…

 -- Chris Moore (5-109-1/5) got a floater deep from Mills, perfectly placed…either genius or luck (looked like luck) as the two defenders couldn’t believe the ball placement as they tried to get to it…which left them out of position after the catch, so Moore snatched and took off for a 67-yard TD. You decide: https://youtu.be/7aunNz6GaPQ

Outside of that, it was a basic day for Moore. He’s a solid hand #4-5-6 WR for a team, not an emerging star.

He also dropped a TD pass in the end zone that turned into a field goal, so he kinda cost them the game, but let’s not talk about that.

 -- The last 3 games for Hunter Henry (6-75-1/8)…

5.0 rec. (6.3 targets), 47.7 yards, 0.67 TDs per game. He’s the 6th-highest scoring PPR TE in PPG since Week 3…tied for 6th with Kelce-Pitts.

There seems to be a growing connection with Henry-Jones, as Jonnu Smith fades off into the distance.

 -- In the last 3 weeks, the Patriots defense has been pushed around by Jameis Winston and Davis Mills but held Tom Brady down in the rain. How can I trust this DST unless it’s a supreme matchup? Week 7 v. NYJ is my last dance with them, if I were to use them again.

Snap Counts of Interest:

31 = D Johnson

26 = Ingram

13 = Lindsay

54 = Conley

50 = Cooks

37 = C Moore

24 = Bolden

22 = Stevenson

21 = Dam Harris

40 = HHenry

40 = Jonnu

R.C. Fischer

FFM

13 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Bears 20, Raiders 9

I loved the Raiders to win this game, covering as the favorite. Shows what I know…they got their arses kicked in the worst game they’ve played this season. Credit the Bears…winners of three of their last 4. I’m not a fan of Nagy or this Bears team in general, but I have to give them some credit – they are beating the teams they are supposed to. And this game was a road upset for them.

The Raiders really never showed up, and it was a penalty festival (like most all games Week 5), and most breaks went against LV…and went in favor of CHI --  but Vegas was bad, the Bears were less bad and got the win.

The Bears have a huge home game with Green Bay this week…and no one is giving them much of a chance to win (4.5 point underdogs at home)…but the Packers aren’t as good as people think, and the Bears aren’t as bad as people (including me) think. The Bears defense is playing solid ball and the Packers have multiple O-Line injuries to see how they go throughout the week. If the Pack is missing two OLs again (Jenkins and Myers) then I’ll probably take the home dog with points.

If the Bears beat GB, they pull into a tie for first in the NFC North…and hold the current tiebreaker. Win or loss this week, probably loss, the Bears schedule will eat them up ahead – we project they end up with around 6 wins this season.

The Raiders fell to (3-2) and have now lost their head coach. I’m thinking the loss of Gruden and move to Rich Bisaccia is at worst ‘no difference’ to the team, but I think there’s an upside because Bisaccia is a better coach and communicator than Gruden. I would not be shocked if the Raiders go out and whoop Denver this week and continue with a hopeful run at a playoff spot. We are projecting they will short of the playoffs at 8 wins, but it’s still early/fluid for all our record projections…and we need to see

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- An unusual RB situation for Chicago in this game…one I didn’t fully realize happened. Damien Williams (16-69-1, 2-20-0/3) started and played all the way through the first couple of series. Rookie Khalil Hebert (18-75-0) sprinkled in after that…but then as the game went on, we saw more and more Herbert.

At first, I thought it was to give Williams a break…but then it became clear they were splitting. To start the 2nd-half, Herbert started as they exchanged the two RBs in and out all the rest of the game.

If you only watched the 1st-half, you’d think Williams was the clear main role starter. If you watched the 2nd-half only, you’d think Herbert was the lead in a 60/40 split.

Best way to describe the Chicago RB situation…it’s a 50/50-ish split of some kind between Williams/Herbert…on a team that will run the ball a lot because they have to.

In the end, in this game…

34 snaps = Herbert

31 snaps = Dam. Williams

 -- The Bears have to run the ball a lot because Justin Fields (12-20 for 111 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-4-0) is not ready yet (and may never be close to the guy they hope). This was a pretty sad game, another in a string, for Fields. They are basically having to game plan around his inability to throw passes like a real NFL QB.

Most all his passes are forced to his first read, and then the throws vary from ‘off’ to ‘way off’. He’s playing like a rookie, a poorly coached one. A heavy run game is the Bears only hope…run game and defense.

And Fields hasn’t been a threat to run…he looks tentative to run…and when it is a designed run play, he looks ‘small’/thin and easy to tackle. He’s not scaring anyone with his feet.

 -- Because Fields is so bad, Allen Robinson (4-32-0/5) is, and has been, an FF-dud all season. Doomed to be a WR3-4 with Fields. I love Darnell Mooney (3-35-0/5), but this exactly why I didn’t draft him in redraft and traded him as hot as I could in Dynasty this August…he’s wonderful, and he has a decent connection with Fields, but Fields is so rough right now you can’t use the WRs with any FF confidence.

Neither are worth buying low on because their current owners are probably:

1) Close to cutting Mooney, and

2) Still adore the ARob name so they hope he’ll turn vs. trading as a WR3-4. Tim Patrick is a better name to own than Allen Robinson, and Patrick is often on waivers right now.

 -- Speaking of useless WRs…

I love Bryan Edwards (2-22-0/5) but he continues to get random, low targeting…and then in his game he dropped a leaping 20+ yard TD that could’ve juiced his visibility with the team. Then in the 2nd-quarter comeback effort he dropped a wide-open 40+ yard bomb right in his hands, but he looked to see where the defense was and took his eye off the ball.

Of course, he made a couple nice/clutch grabs late in the 4th-quarter but not enough to make up for the other issues.

Tim Patrick is working nicely. Bryan Edwards is not. I’ve decided to make Tim Patrick the litmus test of WRs this week, for some reason.

 -- Since Week 2 (Wks2-5), Darren Waller (4-45-0/8) is the #10 PPG PPR TE in Fantasy…behind David Njoku, Hunter Henry, and Mike Gesicki. Yet, every Knox or Schultz owner is dying to trade them + something to get Waller. You shouldn’t. I don’t think it’s a blip…I think Waller is good-not-great for FF in Vegas. If he were with the Chargers, he’d be more awesome. With Vegas…a nice TE1, with 10-15 other TEs claiming the same week-to-week.

You’re holding onto that opening week MNF game for Waller too much. Cleanse your soul.

Things may change with the new coach, we’ll see.

 -- The Raiders started Amik Robertson (7 tackles) at CB this game, and he was not good at that…but was good for IDP tackles…7 tackles in each of his last two games. He’s probably not long for the world of starting CBs, however.

 -- The Bears-DST is getting better…

#7 in NFL PPG allowed

#12 rushing yards allowed

#12 in passing yards allowed

#8 in total yards allowed

#1 in sacks

#5 in DST scoring

They held down CIN, DET, LV this season. They got popped by CLE, LAR. They are flowing with the quality of opponent. The rankings look great, but I’m not fully buying it at this point.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Jacobs

12 = Drake

51 = Kmet

25 = Jimmy Graham (still in the NFL, FYI)

34 = Herbert

31 = Dam Williams

R.C. Fischer

FFM

13 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Steelers 27, Broncos 19

This was not a battle of two of the better teams in football…

The Steelers were the better team, but that’s not saying much. Pitt led 24-6 in the 4th-quarter, and everyone thought it was over. Then the Broncos sprung to life with two TDs in about 5 minutes to cut the game to 24-19.

The Steelers drove down for a field goal and an 8-point lead with 2:20 left, and then Denver drove down again to 1st & goal with under a minute left – 4 chances to get a TD and then for the 2-point conversion…but they could not get the TD part with 4 shots at it, and ‘ball game’.

The Steelers win to stop the bleeding of their season, they are now (2-3) looking to get a win Sunday night hosting Seattle to get to (3-3) before their Week 7 bye…and getting Geno not Russ is just what the doctor ordered for Pitt. It won’t be enough, in the end, we’re projecting the Steelers to finish (7-10).

Denver started out (3-0) but has lost their last two (finally playing better teams) and are now (3-2). We see all kinds of problems with this Denver team. They have kind of a do-or-die Week 6 hosting Las Vegas (3-2) this week. It’s a big game for the AFC West positioning…and for the wild card down the road between these two teams. We project Denver to hit 8-9 wins, but more leaning 7-8 wins. Week 6 is a big week if the Broncos want to be a wild card this season. It’s not a very good team, but they have a schedule pushing them to .500+ if they can capitalize…and I’m not sure they can.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- This was a really bad/lucky game by Ben Roethlisberger (15-25 for 253 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs). He’s fading away. He’s no longer reading the coverage and making sharp throws to secondary and tertiary receiver options. He’s guessing ahead at preplanned throws…he’s throwing to spots hoping the receiver is there before the defender.

Ben threw zero picks in the game, but he nearly threw 4-5 of them in reality. So many quick throws ahead of the receiver’s break…and the defenders often had a beat on it but just missed it or dropped the pick. And this wasn’t the O-Line letting Ben down,  forcing his quick passing ways so that he had a reason to get rid of the ball fast…no, this was the best performance game by the O-Line this season, and Ben was still acting like the football was a hot potato too often.  

Ben is still a former great QB, so some of his lofted timing passes were thrown out to the right spot for the receiver to run under and catch…but as many times the throws were way off the mark on the guess where they’ll be toss.

Ben’s talent fade is still ‘risk on the table’ for the related FF assets as we go this season.

 -- Ben’s guessing game/passing game FF-helps two WRs and one RB. Ben is only throwing where he has comfort on where he thinks/knows the WR is headed to in their route…or where he can toss a jump ball with the hopes the receiver comes down with…or his real favorite = the safety valve to the RB.

Dionte Johnson (2-72-1/2) is who Ben is most comfortable with knowing where he is…typically Diontae gets the bulk of the targets but after the early bomb TD, Diontae didn’t see a pass again until the 4th-quarter. Very odd. Good coverage by DEN to take away his comfort guy.

However, Ben has Chase Claypool (5-13-0-1/6) in times of trouble/can throw it up and hope for the best. This was the best game, technically, that Claypool may have played in the NFL…he ran some great routes and was wide open for Ben on a few occasions, and CC is so big that Big Ben can see him/has a lot of radius to throw to. Also, when Ben sees CC has one-on-one deep, he’ll try and guess a deep ball out his way…and Claypool is good enough to win some of those. But here it was more route work and Ben having time to find it/let it develop a few times.

This game of chanced Ben has with Claypool is going to have some misfires/good coverage/too much pass rush leading to games where CC has 1-3 catches for 25 yards and you are FF-mad, but then there will be these games where Claypool looks like a million backs and makes plays and makes it all worth it (like this one).

JuJu being gone for good…it’s a big help to funnel even more work to the trusted Diontae and Claypool duo.

Seattle has a limited pass rush and a weak secondary – it might be a sweet Week 6 for DJ and CC.

 -- The RB that benefits from Ben’s reduced state is obviously Najee Harris (23-122-1, 2-20-0/5)…the dump pass in-crisis option is huge for Ben, but he didn’t need to do that much here because Ben actually had time…and the run game was finally working.

Opposing teams have slammed the door on Najee all season…and then he gashed Denver. Why? For the first time this season, Najee had holes/options running straight ahead…he didn’t have to try (and fail) to dance everything outside.

Either the Steelers O-Line got good all of a sudden…or the Broncos run defense stinks. I would blame Denver’s run defense. It’s ranked well in the NFL, but it hasn’t played anyone either.

 -- Javonte Williams (8-61-0, 3-25-0/3) is the better rookie RB talent over Najee, to me…but not to his NFL team. The Steelers are all in on Najee, while Denver is playing footsie with a duo of Javonte and Melvin Gordon (9-34-0, 2-9-0/2).

The offensive pace instantly picks up with Javonte in the game…and when Williams gets the ball dumped to him in the passing game, he always seems on the verge of breaking things for a longer play.

The RB-duo concept is cute when Denver is winning, but now that they are losing…people are getting restless for more offensive firepower. We may not be far away from Javonte as the 70/30 lead…or 80/20 with Gordon cut or traded at the deadline to free Javonte of the Gordon cloud. Gordon ain’t taking a secondary role, he’ll piss and moan about it until he’s moved.

When Mike Boone is back active, that might be the moment Denver can think of such things. A few more losses in a row would probably force a change as well. It’s possible Denver may lose their next two and force change to occur…

 -- This was another reminder of just how good Courtland Sutton (7-120-1/11) is. Too bad Teddy is not more consistent…because Sutton should be a star already. Sutton finally got his first TD, after weeks of knocking on the door. He had a shot at a 2nd TD but Teddy is Teddy and threw a pick to end the game in front of Sutton.

 -- Tim Patrick (7-89-0/9) is the #35 in PPR PPG among WRs so far this season…ahead of DeVonta Smith, Christian Kirk, Tyler Boyd, Marvin Jones, Marquez Callaway among others. But Patrick is usually on waivers and not the other guys I just listed.

 -- Kendall Hinton (2-25-1/3) is now the Denver #3 WR in three WR sets…so happy for him. He played a solid game here, in on 65% of the snaps. He’s not ready for FF usage yet, but he’s starting to climb the ladder towards it and out of obscurity.

 -- The Steelers-DST played well here for 3+ quarters and then were an open door that allowed Denver back in the game. They are good…they are a good start Week 6 v. SEA because of Geno…but then a Week 7 bye…and then a pretty rough stretch the rest of the season.

Final Analysis: https://youtu.be/O2TRU3fgGr4

Snap Counts of Interest:

60 = Diontae

36 = Claypool

25 = JuJu

16 = Cody White

32 = Freiermuth

25 = Ebron

57 = Patrick

54 = Sutton

39 = Hinton

36 = M Gordon

25 = Javonte

19 = Caden Sterns