I'm in heavy 2023 Draft Guide research, study, and commentary writing mode for the Draft Guide version 1.0 release in mid-June. And one of the biggest research items that I am finding myself needing/wanting to go back and watch their 2022 game tape of – is on certain members of the QB group…the ones who either spiked up out of nowhere or started to fall apart by surprise.
I’m trying to go back and see if the tape might reveal any clues on certain QB’s performance that I might have missed watching their live games and tape last season. Is there anything I can find that is predictive for their 2023 projections (and, thus, the projections of the receivers around them). Like...how did Geno Smith come out of nowhere to be that good in 2022, after a ‘bust’ career prior? What really happened to Russell Wilson...was it as simple as ‘Nathaniel Hackett’s fault’? Is Dak dying? Is Trevor for real? Is Baker done? Is Purdy the future?
So many unusual QB performances in 2022 that required me to go back and try to see their last season with fresh eyes, or re-remember how they really looked. The first (of several this summer) studies I did on confusing 2022 QBs for 2023 was a scouting study of Deshaun Watson 2022. I'm sharing that subscriber only report for the weekly newsletter to show the approach I'm taking with these studies...and to let you know there are many more to come this offseason for FFMers.
I also included, in this week's weekly newsletter, a report from the summer of 2022...which is on how I miss-scouted Ja'Marr Chase and what does that mean/change going forward. It’s more an overall scouting introspective than totally Chase-focused. It would be better for me to only cherry pick all the good stuff/reports and send that out for our newsletter, but I'm more intrigued by what I learn from scouting mistakes.
The football analysis world is littered with horrific scouting errors, but they (the media, the analysts, the scouts, the GMs, the coaches) rarely/never talk about their constant scouting errors and how they're correcting...they're too busy trying to 'fix the culture' to bother 'fixing their talent collection'. I digress...
I'm not trying to hide anything -- I'm trying to learn, I'm trying to fail fast and correct faster (when I do miss the target on scouting a prospect). I need to be right first as the primary goal, right ahead of the pack for Fantasy and Handicapping profiteering...but second priority is 'being right' eventually/quickly. Holding on to a 'bad hand'/bad scouting assumption is lethal in this business...just ask all the football people still pining away/making excuses for/still proclaiming a renaissance for Sam Darnold. There's a lot to learn from seeing and researching and correcting mistakes, so that you lessen the odds of repeating them. Enjoy my analysis of myself.
About two more months until the first preseason games...and the majority of Fantasy drafts. We're in the calm before the storm. Important to use this quietish football summer to study and prep for the football blizzard to come in August. Join us all summer for special reports on all things Football/Fantasy/Dynasty/Devy operations.
