R.C. Fischer

FFM

21 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Falcons 30, Dolphins 28

Two bad teams playing a game that ended up being a good/fun game to watch…the Falcons kept taking two-score leads, and Miami kept crawling back in, and then the Dolphins took the lead late…but too much time left for the Falcons to get down in FG range and kick an easy game winner as time expired.

The Computer/I had picked Atlanta to win but Miami to cover +2.5…so, everyone in my house went home happy with this one.

Miami has lost three games by late field goal now…losers of six in a row, (1-6) on the year. My win total ‘under’ bet on Miami is nearly locked in…unless they win out. So, everyone in my house went home a winner after this one! Did I already say that? Well, it’s doubly true – loved this game outcome as a bettor.

Miami is headed towards a 2-4 win season on their current trajectory…but that could all change with a looming Deshaun Watson deal next week. We’ll see if the Miami fortunes are about to change soon.

Atlanta has crawled to (3-3)…you know, good quality wins over NYG, NYJ, and MIA (teams a combined 3-17). They have an OK matchup this week with Carolina…and then the schedule will really start to get them from there. We see ATL finishing with 4-5 wins. The schedule is going to be unkind to this secretly really bad team.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I definitely have to lead-off with this: This was the best NFL game I’ve seen Tua Tagovailoa (32-40 for 291 yards, 4 TDs/2 INTs, 4-29-0) work/play. He was a machine working those quick baby throws (from 0-5 yards from the line of scrimmage).

In the past, Tua has run the baby throw offense and been erratic or too slow on decisions too often…but in this game he was like a robot snapping off perfect 1–5-yard bullet timing passes and short slants and short comebacks all over. It was really humming. It’s darn near unstoppable when it works the way it did versus Atlanta.

The problem is whenever Tua has to throw under pressure, or that quick throw isn’t there, or Tua needs to throw it deeper…he just closes his eyes and floats one out and prays…thus, the 32 completed passes for 291 yards, just 7.3 yards per completion on a near 300+ yard day.

Whatever you want to call it…it was working here. The Falcons couldn’t figure it out or put needed pressure on Tua, so it was like he was playing easy 7-on-7 ball most of this game.

It’s really been two weeks in a row of it for Tua. If you can keep Tua in this rhythm…in this system…and well-protected, he’ll slice you with a thousand paper cuts. 32 and 33 pass completions in a game his last two starts. 310.0 yards passing per game and 6 TDs/3 INTs in those two games. It will be interesting to see if he can keep it up against Buffalo, in the colder temps and with possible drizzle.

My guess is…no, he cannot. But after that, maybe…maybe as the starter for Carolina or Washington as well.

 -- As long as Tua is doing his thing, then Jaylen Waddle (7-83-0/8) and Mike Gesicki (7-85-1/8) will continue to flourish. Waddle is playing pitch & catch with Tua, and could lead the league in catches if they stay together…while Gesicki is making some really complicated, under duress catches. Gesicki has become one of the best receiving TEs in the game.

It’s not impossible to think Gesicki will be the #2-3 scoring TE in PPR this season…as long as Tua remains there.

 -- Matt Ryan (25-40 for 336 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is working much better since Week 2…

Weeks 1-2 = (0-2) record, 2 TDs/3 INTs

Weeks 3-7 = (3-1) record, 10 TDs/1 INTs…it helps that he has faced mostly all bottom tier pass defenses

A matchup with a top 5 pass defense in Carolina Week 8, but then back to bottom 10 pass defenses…NO and DAL after that.

 -- The rise of Matt Ryan is being aided by the rise of his best two players…

1) Cordarrelle Patterson (14-60-1, 2-1-0/5) has taken over as the starting and main runner of the ball RB, and he looks terrific. Weird receiving game here…passes tipped at the line or covered tight by Xavien Howard a few times. I don’t think there is any cause for receiving alarm.

2) Kyle Pitts (7-163-0/8) took a HUGE leap forward in this game. Pitts is becoming Ryan’s go-to option…he flung several prayers to Pitts racing deep, and then Pitts would keep making surreal catches while tightly covered.

Arthur Smith has finally stopped with the TE/blocking nonsense with Pitts and just has him as basically a WR now…which is what we wanted right away, but it’s here now in Week 7.

Pitts has officially arrived as a top 1-2 TE for Fantasy.

Where are all the FF analysts who gleefully warned that rookie TEs don’t produce TE1 seasons…because they have a plot chart and cool infographic to show you the past 20 years of rookie TE performance in the NFL/FF? It doesn’t matter what the past is…the NFL changes/evolves every 2-3 years, and Kyle Pitts has no historical comp.

He is the magical unicorn rookie.

 -- Russell Gage (4-67-1/6) returned from injury and had a nice game. All the attention on Ridley-Pitts-CPatt will make Gage an attractive WR3/Flex option, especially when garbage time happens…and it should happen a lot for ATL.

 -- I thought Myles Gaskin (15-67-0, 4-10-1/4) was being quasi-benched for Salvon Ahmed (7-26-0, 2-26-0/2) after watching the Week 6 game where Ahmed was in late for the comeback effort. But it was Malcolm Brown who actually started this game and ran the whole 1st-series, but then got hurt and Gaskin filtered in and we’re back to Gaskin as lead…I guess.

 -- Falcons rookie SAF Richie Grant (6 tackles) played a season high 79% of the snaps in this game. He’s been playing more the last two games. He was our #1 rated safety for this 2021 NFL Draft.

I didn’t see anything on tape here that got me excited that IDP usage was imminent, however. He still looks a bit lost but should wash out of that in a few weeks and we can reevaluate. He’s more a cover safety than a tackler anyway.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Waddle

39 = Hollins

30 = Pr Williams

19 = Ford

46 = Gaskin

22 = Ahmed

05 = Brown

46 = CPatt

38 = MK Davis

46 = Ridley

40 = Gage

14 = Sharpe

12 = Zaccheaus

R.C. Fischer

FFM

21 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Vikings 34, Panthers 28 OT

I don’t know how this was close…or how this went to OT. The Vikings were pretty well handling the Panthers all game, but the Panthers D was nails early -- holding MIN to field goals halting goal-to-go situations to keep it from getting out of hand immediately. Carolina a blocked punt for a TD later 2nd-half to aid the cause, and then as this game was about over (down 8/under 2-minutes) Darnold threw for a miracle 4th & 10 conversion to keep the game tying drive alive…then Patrick Peterson got hurt and left the game on said drive with Carolina scoring that late TD and adding 2-pointer, and Minnesota drove down with less than minute for a makeable field goal…that was missed. Justice was served when Minnesota got the ball in OT and went right down the field for the game winning TD.

Minnesota hits their bye week at (3-3)…could’ve been (5-1), could’ve been (1-5). This is a pretty good but erratic team, a ‘something is missing’ good team that could beat any team in the NFL. They’ve had a tough schedule so far, and it stays tough after their bye. We see them finishing between 9-11 wins…a shot to win the NFC North title, but more likely is a strong/no-one-wants-to-play-them wild card.

Carolina (3-3) has lost three-straight…all games they had a chance to win. Sam Darnold is killing them, and I think they know that now. Everyone says Deshaun Watson to Miami, but I think Carolina is going to make a run at this and try and launch themselves as the future of the NFC South.

If they make that trade this week, they would rush Watson in as fast as they could…NFL allowing. Sam is dead and they know it. Carolina could send multiple picks and C.J. Henderson and Robby Anderson to Houston for him. Houston could then trade Robby before the deadline. The NFL is rarely that creative, so it’s just passing daydream thoughts by me…that won’t come close to coming true. But a boy can dream.

Carolina is headed to an 8-9 win season with Sam, but that all changes depending upon IF Deshaun arrives…and WHEN he’d be allowed to play.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Chuba Hubbard (16-61-1, 1-4-0/3) had a nice enough game here. He’s working like any random OK RB would thrown into a situation. The growing issue with him is he’s dropping passes/is a problem on 3rd-downs blocking, etc.

Royce Freeman doesn’t seem 100% ‘right’ or lost his athleticism during the pandemic…so, he’s not touching the ball much. So, because Hubbard is having catch issues and Freeman is a zero…the Panthers signed Reggie Bonnafon (a fave of mine who never gets a real chance) back to their roster (he’s been there on and off for 2+ years).

I’m always hoping Bonnafon gets a real chance, but likely he won’t see much action…and may get cut once CMC returns, but just note Bonnafon is there if Hubbard gets hurt and if CMC is out longer than expected (aka his typical).

 -- We saw the debut of rookie WR Shi Smith (2-20-0/2) in this game for Carolina. He’s a really good slot-type WR who will be a starter in 2022, but a #4-5 WR in 2021. However, Terrace Marshall has a concussion and Brandon Zylstra went on IR…so, Smith make a splash this week as a forced in #3 WR.

 -- FYI…Tyler Conklin (3-71-0/5) had his hands on a short TD pass early on, but good coverage batted it away. Had he caught that TD, he would have been the #10 TE in half-PPR PPG since Week 3…ahead of Darren Waller (#12).

Not saying he’s a TE1 stud…just saying he’s one of 15-20 NFL starting TEs vying from the #3-15 spot in the TE scoring rankings any given stretch of the season.

Conklin is the 11th most targeted TE on the season to date, #11 in total catches. #12 in yards.

The 26th most owned TE in Fantasy, currently.

 -- Dalvin Cook makes Kirk Cousins (33-48 for 373 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) go from a QB2 to a QB1. When Cook missed/was hurt the prior three games (essentially), Cousins threw for 5 TDs/3 INTs. With Cook playing full, Cousins has racked up 8 TDs/0 INTs and two 300+ yard efforts in those 3 games.

It’s like what Saquon does to Daniel Jones…sucks without Saquon, is plausible/decent-looking with him.

 -- K.J. Osborn (6-78-1/7) scored the game winning TD. I really like what I see from KJO, but you can’t get too confident in him because Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are always more preferred. However…

That Cousins-Cook affect I mentioned? Osborn averaged 2.8 rec. and 22.0 yards with Cook out/hurt. In the games with Cook fully in, where Cousins went nuts…6.0 rec., 81.7 yards, 0.67 TDs per game…a legit WR1.5-2.0 with Cook playing fully, per early trends.

Osborn has equal to or more catches, yards, and TDs this season than the following WRs (who have played 6 games): Mecole Hardman, Laviska Shenault, Darnell Mooney, Rondale Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Allen Robinson. Yet, I bet without looking…he’s the least owned of them all in Fantasy (7-8% owned in the tracking I see).

 -- There was one fresh STANDOUT player for me from this game…and that was Carolina rookie CB Keith Taylor (10 tackles, 3 PDs).

Taylor was going toe-to-toe with Jefferson and Thielen all game. So much so, Cousins was not really going his way wherever he was. Cousins went after A.J. Bouye mostly. Donte Jackson some. When forcing it against Taylor, half the time Taylor was glued to the WR, but they made a spectacular catch on the play. The other catches around Taylor were him way off and a quick tunnel screen or slant was thrown harmlessly in front of him. Big time showing for Taylor here.

Taylor should be a starter with Stephon Gillmore and maybe Donte Jackson (with C.J. Henderson possibly traded again). Gillmore-Horn-Taylor will be a badass coverage unit in 2022. I liked Taylor a lot on scouting his tape pre-Senior Bowl/Combine time. I thought he was a top coverage prospect, but he didn’t test great (but was fine), and we had to discount his metrics grade some. He looks like a future strong CB, possible lockdown guy to me.

If Carolina has Gillmore-Henderson-Jackson-Taylor the rest of this season, with their great D-Line and when Shaq Thompson returns – it could be the best all-around 1-11 defensive unit in football. With a mostly great schedule Weeks 7-12. Bye Week 13.

 -- Minnesota has an emerging defense too, but the loss of Patrick Peterson (who has been playing great for MIN, a career renaissance) for a few weeks is going to kill them against Dallas and Baltimore Weeks 8-9…and then Week 10 at LAC, if PP isn’t back by then.

Could be three shootouts for Kirk Cousins ahead…

Snap Counts of Interest:

48 = Hubbard

23 = Freeman

40 = I Thomas

38 = Tremble

76 = Conklin

24 = Herndon

66 = Cook

12 = Mattison

87 = Thielen

84 = Jefferson

48 = Osborn 

R.C. Fischer

FFM

20 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Raiders 34, Broncos 24

Another chapter in the files of…head coaches don’t matter/they actually suppress performance…as we had the Raiders going out and scissor-kicking the Broncos in their minus-Gruden debut. Wow, what a distraction! How could the team ever go on without Jon Gruden!?!? Pretty easily it appears. These guys aren’t five years old, and Jon Gruden has many former players and co-workers have been trying to tell us all along that this guy is a car salesman, and a bad football coach – but it’s the NFL, and ESPN, so these things get covered up and you get the Gruden Grinder shoved down your throat and you will like it.

Is it always going to be myopic, no-business-sense, no real-world experience people and/or weirdos among us as NFL head coaches?

I guess it’s the same we get for politicians and CEOs, so what’s the sense in complaining? I’ll just sit back and roast them for pleasure year-after-year, as they give me a never-ending supply of material.

So, because the Raiders were so distraught and distracted by the loss of beloved Gruden…they got the opening kick and went down the field and scored a TD. Then Denver responded to tie it. The next thing you knew it was 31-10 Raiders going into the 4th-quarter. Denver added a bunch of nonsense against a prevent defense to make it seem closer than it was.

Denver is dying, and I warned after the (3-0) start…that something wasn’t right. The Computer was flashing signals. The Computer flashed Cleveland and Denver problems/warning signs after Week 3…and the two teams have a combined (1-5) record since (after starting a combined 5-1). The Computer sees Cleveland starting to pull out of the danger zone, but is not seeing as much hope for Denver to do the same…but some minor blips of hope. Now those two teams face each other this week with A LOT on the line.

Denver may have gotten a break this week on TNF with the Browns missing their entire starting backfield and possibly their main two starting WRs (ignoring DPJ, who is their best…but they don’t think so). If Denver can steal a win at Cleveland this week, and then beat Washington Week 8…they would be (5-3) and needing to win four of their final 9 games to slip into the playoff picture at the end – but their schedule is not going to allow it. If we push them to (5-3) after Week 8, then the Computer sees them still finishing (7-10)…going (2-7) down the stretch.

The Browns are (3-3) but are a top 5 NFL team at full strength. They are like a Fantasy team that is (3-3) and having lost their last two and are facing all kinds of injuries – it’s sad when you know you’re team is really good but circumstances and schedule are killing you – the Browns job, your FF-job in that similar/near-to-it position, is to just try and win one of next 2…two of the next 4…tread water to buy time for your team to get healthy and for you to get lucky on waivers. It’s not a make a five for six player swap/wild trade to try and solve all the issues in one week (which you won’t). Sometimes, you gotta take these FF-punches…lose a round or two in the fight while wearing your opponent down, preserving your energy and learning about your opponents – and then at the right time, you get healed up/rested up and go on the offensive.

If the Browns can go (1-1) the next two weeks, stay at .500 (4-4), while getting Baker-Chubb-Hunt-Landry-OBJ healthy…then they can go on the offensive again starting Week 9 at Cincy. And maybe they only get a wild card instead of the division because of this bad luck…but Cleveland getting to the playoffs fully healthy is a dangerous thing. Your job in Fantasy, if you’re scuffling now to things out of your full control…keep treading water, healing up, landing a surprise find in the next 1-2-3 weeks, and hit a stride in the playoffs. There’s a lot of season left…get to the playoffs is the priority…winning the division would be nice, but you gotta get to the playoffs and you still have plenty of time to heal and to maneuver your way there – you gotta believe it and not panic into it.

We project Cleveland to finish with 9-10 wins and a wild card at this stage. The Ravens have caught all the breaks for the AFC North race, the Browns have not.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- What a game for Courtland Sutton (8-94-1/14)! About 2.5 quarters in, I thought he was going to be a dud. But Denver went on a tear against a prevent defense, led by Sutton.

The thing about this game was – Sutton left 4 more catches for 100+ yards and another TD on the table with just-missed throws/attempts. Key thing is…the attempts, the intent is HIGH.

Sutton is a WR1 talent that I worry has a WR1.5-2.0 future in this offense. So, I’m willing to explore trading Sutton (if he’s excess) to fill any other needs or sell high and make a big move for upgraded talent/depth.

I’m not dumping him. I don’t fear a fall for him as much as I do Deebo. I’m just exploring my sell options to see if I get what I WANT, or I just stick with him.

 -- Big game for Noah Fant (9-97-1/11)…a bit in the same way Sutton did – got rolling as the defense softened off a big lead/cushion, but it still counted nicely for FF.

Since Week 2, Fant is averaging 10.2 half-PPR PPG and Darren Waller (5-59-0/5) is at 9.0 PPG in that same stretch. Watching them work, Fant looked as athletic and important, or more so, than Waller here.

My great fear from last year, and into this season on Waller is coming true – that he’d be just a good option for Carr/Vegas, not the elite one…he was just a nice top 6-10 TE in FF last year for a half a season, then finished real strong to puff his final numbers (which is fine but it all came in a small stretch late). This season, the huge Week 1 and then a bunch of TE2 work the last five weeks. It’s not a Waller issue, it’s a Carr issue. Carr is spreading it around and no one receiver is predictably prospering for FF.

Most people would kill to have Waller over Fant, which makes Waller a great sell high. I’m not sure I wouldn’t rather have Fant…and if that’s the case, knowing I could get Fant (or Schultz) + ___ for Waller, I’m into that redraft upgrade. Nothing against Waller, everything against his usage/output pattern. I’m fine sticking with him, but I wouldn’t hesitate to trade him hot either.

Since Week 2, Waller and Fant both have been targeted 34 times…the 4th most among TEs. You know who #1 is (Kelce), but did you know #2 is Mike Gesicki (40)?

 -- Just a quick aside…I’m a fan of WR Kendall Hinton (5-37-0/5), since scouting him as one of the 10 best WR talents from the 2020 NFL Draft. That statement seems ludicrous, unless you know how good a scout I am…and I am. Well, Hinton finally is getting a shot (after mass WR injury) and he’s playing great football. He’s working the slot and making clutch catches (has great hands) – he’s kinda becoming that Curtis Samuel 3rd-down assassin-like that Teddy had/made in 2020 with Carolina.

Not sure that FF gold is coming from it, but just know Hinton is rising in snaps and catches every week the past three weeks with Hamler gone. But when Jerry Jeudy comes back…it’s over.

 -- If you ignore the game where Teddy played a half and left with injury, in his other 5 games…he’s thrown for 260+ yards in four of the 5 games…11 TDs in those five games.

 -- Not for nothing, but I’m not sure there’s a running back I enjoy (as a scout of such things) watching run the ball more than Javonte Williams (11-53-0, 3-15-0/3). The guy is going to be a workhorse star of the future…I just wish that future was soon.

However, because it’s not happened yet…he’s getting ‘obtainable’. And for Dynasty, I want to obtain. For redraft, I do want him as well…but only on the cheap. His redraft price is sliding away, down…and that’s a good time to buy. But his touches are only RB2.5 stuff right now. But he’ll pop one day, and then there’s no looking back.

 -- Speaking of run games…

We have a new internal O-Line grading system we’re playing with this year. The Computer says there are four ‘F’ grade O-Lines for the run game right now…

#4) Las Vegas (F+)

#3) New England (F)

#2) Houston (F)

#1/the worst) NY Giants (F)

The Patriots and Texans are getting there through injury, as you could say NYG has as well (a little bit) but the Raiders have earned this through offseason mismanagement. The other three have hope that they get injured OL assets back soon. Las Vegas just stinks.

Josh Jacobs (16-53-1, 1-29-0/1) yards per carry in each of his 4 games this season: 3.4, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3. Wow. That’s no Bueno…but goes to reflect the pool O-Line grades we have.

 -- Bryan Edwards (2-67-0/4) had his typical game. He did the following in the 4th-quarter, on 3rd & 6 which really blew Denver’s comeback hopes with this dagger: https://youtu.be/gsAmA54Ws8Y

Still, Edwards is a ghost for 3+ quarters then makes his 4th-quarter gem play and leaves on a high note but a low game for FF. https://youtu.be/f3ALoSiJaEE

No progress for Edwards becoming anything stable, hopeful, relevant for FF still.

Snap Counts of Interest:

72 = Patrick

72 = Fant

71 = Sutton

51 = Hinton

43 = Gordon

38 = Javonte

06 = Boone

36 = Jacobs

12 = Drake

08 = Richard

46 = Waller

43 = Edwards

37 = Ruggs

Ross Jacobs

FFM

20 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Buccaneers 28, Eagles 22 

The final score doesn't really capture how one-sided this game was.

The Buccaneers came out firing and took a quick lead, but the Eagles responded with a good drive of their own to tie it up. After that the Bucs began to pull away.

With 5:00 minutes left in the 3rd it was 28-7 Buccaneers and the Eagles were struggling to keep their heads above water. They would score with about 2 minutes left in the quarter and again with about 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter, but it was too little too late and the Bucs put the ball in Fournette's hands to grind out the win.

I don't think much has changed with the analysis of these two teams. The Buccaneers remain a dangerous but flawed team, one capable of beating any team any given week. They are a Superbowl contender, although probably not the outright favorites. The easy schedule should elevate them to the #2 seed in the NFC although #1 is still within reach if the Cardinals stumble against a tough NFC West division.

The Eagles aren't a good team, but they aren't absolutely terrible either. They look like a 6 or 7 win team, somewhere in that range. The offense is 19 in yards per game and 20th in scoring while the defense is 11th in yards per game but only 23rd in points per game. They have played a relatively hard schedule so far with losses to the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Buccaneers. They beat two of their other three opponents and should have won the 49'er game but for a bunch of dumb penalties and some bad luck. They have also struggled with injuries, particularly on the offensive line. This really isn't a bad team and the schedule ahead is manageable. They can still make a run at the NFC East provided Dallas comes back to earth. Don't count them out just yet.

Fantasy Notes

--It's said that in life there are only two sure things: death and taxes. In fantasy football there are also only a few sure things, and one of those is that Jalen Hurts (12-26 for 115 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 10-44-2) is going to score 20 points in the 2nd half of games.

I said it last week and I'll say it again this week, stop doubting him. It doesn't matter what you think of his real world talent. All that matters is that he's a fantasy monster. He is built to succeed. On the season he now has 8 passing TD's and 5 rushing TD's. Yes, he's had 3 games under 200 yards passing, but that doesn't matter when he's scoring touchdowns and rushing for 30+ yards every single game. He's the #5 ranked QB at the moment ahead of Lamar, Herbert, and Dak. He's a mere 9 points from being #1 ahead of Josh Allen.

The next three weeks look juicy too. He's got the somewhat soft Raiders defense, the league worst Lions, and then the Chargers who struggle against the run and just got demolished by the most similar QB to Hurts, Lamar Jackson. Only one thing can stop the Hurts train this year and I'll talk about that in a moment). Otherwise, he's going to finish as a top 10 scorer and will definitely be in the mix for #1 overall.

My one concern is that the stupid Philadelphia fans are going to get him benched for the skeletal remains of Joe Flacco. Unfortunately, Sirianni seems to be falling into the same trap that Nagy fell into with Trubisky, thinking that his QB has to look and play a certain way instead of focusing on the results. Nagy absolutely killed any confidence Trubisky had by constantly calling nothing but short passes for him. There was never anything particularly wrong with Trubisky. He just got put in terrible situations and then was expected to bail the team out despite being handled like he was incompetent. Hurts is starting to get the same treatment, and it is concerning. The only passes that get called for him are screens and curls anymore, and since the defense knows what's coming they are just squatting on these passes. Hurts has no room to throw the ball.

The coaching staff has to loosen up and start trusting Hurts or at least pretend to. It's their gameplan that is holding things back right now, not Hurts. I don't think this situation will play out quite the same though because unlike Trubisky, Hurts isn't soft mentally. He's a competitor and has been kicked around and treated like this before at Alabama. He didn't let that stop him either and left for Oklahoma where he was even more impressive. I believe he'll get through this, but we definitely have to keep an eye on Sirianni and his attitude towards Hurts. I'm concerned but not fearful...yet...

--RC is right that the Hurts-DeVonta Smith (2-31-0/4) connection doesn't look quite right yet. DeVonta has been ok but not the assassin we expected. Some of that is this stupid game plan of screen passes and curls holding him back, but some of it is Smith as well. Hopefully it's just him getting used to the physical aspect of the NFL. In college teams couldn't afford to try and press him at the line. In the NFL they are on him constantly or else playing off and immediately closing the gap because they know it's a short route. The best thing this coaching staff could do would be to start calling double moves for DeVonta. That would really open this offense up for everyone. For now though you just have to hold and wait on Smith for fantasy. His time will come.

--The WR trending up for Philly right now is Quez Watkins (3-44-0/5). I've been pointing him out since the year started and begging the team to get him the ball more. Apparently they've finally figured out that the speedster is their best screen receiver and have started to get him more involved. He's still just a random WR3 for the moment, and I doubt he ever becomes more, but there is always the potential for Watkins to break a long play.

--With Zach Ertz getting traded you would expect that Dallas Goedert could move into an established TE1 role the rest of schedule, but it may be a bit choppy at times as this passing game ebbs and flows. I think it's a good bet, but good luck trying to get Goedert away from his owner right now. You can't overpay though because he's still likely to be more TE5-8 than top 3 or 4.

--RC and I thought Kenneth Gainwell might have broken out a couple weeks ago, but the Eagles have a funny way of showing it if so. Gainwell has barely been involved the last two weeks. I'm thinking it's just a blip, a weird matchup decision of some sort, and that Gainwell will be more involved going forward. This week against the Raiders linebackers is a perfect spot to get him more touches. If he's a ghost again this week then you can probably forget about it for the time being.

--We speculated that Leonard Fournette (22-81-2, 6-46-0/6) had completely taken over this backfield, and here you go. A true RB1 performance. Now I have to caution everyone from thinking that this will automatically last the rest of the year. Every time you think Arians is ready to go all-in with something he seems to pull it back. Fournette looks like a good start right now, but I could absolutely foresee Ronald Jones getting out of the doghouse and back into the mix before long. Stay optimistic, but remain cautious with this situation.

--I've spilled a lot of ink discussing the Buccaneers WRs this year, and it's another issue that might continually change, but for the moment it certainly seems like Antonio Brown (9-93-1/13) might have grabbed the lead in this race as Brady's bff. But even more so than Fournette, I remain very skeptical of assuming that Brown is now the unquestioned lead. He's still playing far fewer snaps than the other two receivers. I know Brady looks to him when he needs a big play, but I still suspect that Brady is playing matchups more often than not. I would continue to expect a rotation among the three which leaves you trying to guess who is most involved in a particular week. The good news is that the volume is there to sustain all three at decent levels.

--Last week I warned that OJ Howard (6-49-1/7) would have a big game soon. He's been quite involved in Gronkowski's absence and that could continue for a while as Gronk's injuries sounded significant and the Bucs will try to keep him healthy for the playoffs. Consider Howard a TE1.5 with upside for the time being. He's getting decent time and is quite overlooked in fantasy, so if you really need a TE he's probably available to get you through a few weeks.

IDP Notes

--Alex Singleton (15 tackles) is absolutely on fire. Every week I can point out linebackers putting up really good numbers, but Singleton has arguably been the best producer in the league and also the most underrated for fantasy purposes. There's a good chance he's still available on your waiver wire despite putting up a ridiculous 67 (11.2/g) through 6 games. He might be a tick down against the pass heavy Raiders and Chargers the next few weeks, but I don't expect his numbers to fall off too far. He's been money every game this year and doesn't look to be going anywhere.

Snap Counts of Interest

70 = Mike Evans

68 = Chris Godwin

37 = Antonio Brown

49 = OJ Howard

44 = Cameron Brate

47 = Leonard Fournette

14 = Ronald Jones

51 = DeVonta Smith

43 = Jalen Reagor

40 = Quez Watkins

43 = Miles Sanders

12 = Kenneth Gainwell

R.C. Fischer

FFM

20 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Chiefs 31, Washington 13

I don’t think anyone was shocked by the 18-point win by KC over dying Washington. What was shocking, and maybe missed by those not watching this game – Washington led 13-10 at halftime. The Chiefs were looking as sloppy as ever, again, and were down. Washington came out of the half, stopped KC right away…then drove down for a field goal…missed it and then the Chiefs decided that maybe throwing passes to Tyreek Hill would be a good idea, better than an offense based on DeMarcus Robinson, and suddenly they started moving the ball and lighting up the scoreboard.

Washington is now (2-4) and are on the brink. Another loss, and this season has probably officially gotten away from them…but if they can somehow beat Green Bay, then maybe they can beat Denver the following week and get to their BYE and maybe get Ryan Fitzpatrick and Curtis Samuel + Logan Thomas back and Antonio Gibson some time to heal, and perhaps this defense gels a bit.

I’m not saying that as a wishful Washington-thinker. I think they’re terrible. I am just noting that the current regime thinks they still have wild card hope if they can win at least one of their next 2 games. There’s a path to 8-9 wins but I think they’re headed for 5-6 wins.

Kansas City moves to (3-3), and it’s deserved. They are not the best team in football, not even close. But they are still very viable/good…can win a Super Bowl if you let them into the playoffs. The Chargers getting whacked Week 6 re-opened the door for KC to win the AFC West. A lot of weeks to go. We project 11+ wins for KC right now, a dogfight with LAC for the division.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- What’s the deal with Antonio Gibson (10-44-0, 2-0-0/3)?

He’s got the shin issue. He reaggravates it with any good hit to his legs…and players get tackled with human missiles to the shin area all the time, and don’t think the opposing defense isn’t aware of Gibson’s shin. It’s a ticking time bomb with a giant target painted on it.

Here’s what I know: Having an MRI on the shin this week. If he’s OK, they’ll play him because of what I wrote above – Washington likely thinks they are still in the playoff hunt with a little luck. Week 7 and 8 are huge for the Washington 2021 season. But it is possible Gibson is just too bad off and is shut down the next two weeks (and then a BYE) and returns after a three week rest/healing.

Gibson looks fine running the ball every week. He doesn’t look like a guy favoring his shin. But it is an issue for real/pain tolerance.

If Gibson plays Week 7, his reps will be managed and J.D. McKissic (8-45-0, 8-65-0/10) rises to power. And it will be J.D. as the FF guy to have, not Jaret Patterson (1-5-0, 1-0-0/1). Sure, Patterson will be involved if Gibson goes down – but McKissic is their main guy to try and win with right now. Patterson will see more work when the season is out of control – likely Week 10 (after their Wk9 bye) and beyond.

McKissic without Gibson is an RB1 threat in PPR. If you’re looking for RB help, instead of chasing Alex Collins or Khalil Herbert or whatever ‘lead back’ name of the moment – maybe go after a cheaper McKissic. He’s never seen as ‘the guy’, but he can be for a stretch…people respect him, so he’s not dirt cheap but he’s cheaper than he should be in PPR. And if Gibson goes out for a while…McKissic’s value explodes.

 -- Speaking of worthy backup RBs…Darrel Williams (21-62-2, 3-27-0/4) had a solid game with CEH out. He was clearly the lead back here. Very little Jerick McKinnon (3-10-0, 1-5-0/4)…although he did get 4 targets, but only connected on one of them.

McKinnon had a play early in the game where he muscled through a tackle and carried a defender forward to get a tough-run first down and I thought it would get him more looks, but he got ignored pretty much the rest of the way…because Eric Bieniemy is a genius and should be hired for every NFL job opening every year.

I don’t know that Williams won’t see more split/hot hand time with CEH when he returns. The offense seems more solid with Williams’s steady hand and blocking, but CEH has draft stock and Eric Bieniemy is an offensive genius, so what to do I know.

 -- Mecole Hardman (4-62-0/5) had a lot of targets last week…in a big loss to Buffalo…because Eric Bieniemy is an offensive genius not to be questioned. Did Hardman follow that up and is breaking out?

Of course, he didn’t. He sucks.

I don’t know what allure this guy has with everyone, but we’re gonna fixate on his 9-catch game Week 5…and ignore the catch counts in his other five games (3-5-3-2-4). Never consistent…never breaking out, but always a ‘sleeper’ for Fantasy analysts. Always, “Now may be the time…” How many years is it going to take for the ‘now’ part? He’s only working with the best QB of our lifetimes for three years now!

Speaking of eternal/wasted hope…Josh Gordon (0-0-0/0) in 11 snaps. Memba him? Wow, 11 whole snaps and no targets!

Remember 2013!!!

Remember his time as a Zapper in 2021? Those were good times: https://youtu.be/5LXhENdO9Es

 -- Ricky Seals-Jones (4-58-1/6) is getting a good run at TE with Logan Thomas back. I don’t trust it will keep up…it won’t keep up when Thomas returns. I don’t trust Thomas when he returns either. This is a sinking ship. I want Fitz + Logan, but not sure I’m ever going to get it.

 -- Taylor Heinicke (24-39 for 182 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 0-0-0/0) keeps declining in output week after week. He had those couple nice games Weeks 2-3-4 but has been dying off since. I’d think he would give this job back to Fitz in a few weeks, but Ron Rivera is so in the tank with Heinicke it may not be true.

 -- Nick Bolton (9 tackles, 1 TFL) is putting up great tackles and TFLs per snap this season…one of the best graded IDP LBs I see in my data (for output). He’s only playing 60-80% of the snaps in games…if/when he gets to 100%, he’s going to be a 10+ tackle a game guy and TFL leader among LBs. He’s just a really solid, classic hard hitting, instinctive linebacker…patrolling the middle for a team that opponents ALWAYS try to establish the run against, which favors Bolton for IDP tallies.

Snap Counts of Interest:

36 = McKissic

23 = Gibson

02 = Patterson

56 = McLaurin

47 = Dyami

12 = D Carter (I thought he might have a nice follow up from a positive Week 5…but, no…we need more Dyami drops)

59 = Darrel Williams

23 = McKinnon

67 = Kelce

38 = Noah Gray

R.C. Fischer

FFM

19 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Rams 38, Giants 11

The Giants got the ball first and were methodically chopping their way down the field, and then a short pass to Kadarius Toney for a catch-and-run 1st-down…ended up Toney get tackled with a defender landing on his bad ankle, and he came up hobbling and out for the game – and that was pretty much the ballgame. The wind came out of the sails of NYG at that point. Then cannonballs were shot into those sails as one-by-one Giants players were getting hurt and leaving the game.

This was never a game, so there’s not a ton to read into for FF performances but there are things to consider for how to interpret the injury issues for NYG for FF performances going forward.

The Giants played about as scrappy as they could for as long as they could – they’ve just had their hearts and souls ripped out week-by-week. If we could restart this season and give NYG a healthy team…never losing Blake Martinez, and Golladay-Toney healthy and starting Week 1, and Saquon a full-go – this could’ve been a wild card hopeful with the improvement of Daniel Jones.

With that said, Giants fans should circle the wagons around this coaching staff and (yes) the GM. Most won’t. They’ll bitch and complain and write articles the rest of the season about what hot coordinator off the Chargers or Cardinals they can get to come and be the new head coach. It’s a mistake, but NFL superfans of a team are totally illogical.

The Rams get a free win here. Right place at the right time. Last week, they got Russell Wilson getting hurt. This week they got Toney and Barkley and Golladay and Martinez-less NYG. Why can’t my Fantasy teams ever draw the luck of the Rams schedule? I got the Browns schedule – non-stop top teams in the league having their peak scoring games the week they face me. The Rams schedule gets even easier ahead – they are getting a free pass to the playoffs and possible NFC West title due to it, but this team is a bit of a SAWFT fraud because they actually think they’re great while cashing in on such luck. Better to be lucky than good…

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- My main notes about this game are really not about this game, but about – What to do with Kadarius Toney (3-36-0/3) now?

The Giants season is effectively over, so be sure to have those crap-colored glasses on when playing pretend-GM of NYG. There’s no reason to rush anyone back. Toney probably never should’ve played to begin with…we were getting and giving reports pregame that his ankle was bothering him in warm-ups. 2+ minutes into the game he was done. We may not know the extent of the injury by Tuesday waiver night end, so we’re going to have to make guesses.

My projection would be: goes on IR for at least three games, but might need ankle surgery to be out (effectively) for the entire season…but more likely he gets 2-3 weeks off to see if a natural healing process is underway and if so it might be 4-5 weeks off to fully heal it. He’s an elite racehorse that should be treated with special care/not rushed back. One way or the other, you’re probably losing Toney for a big chunk of the rest of the FF season…if not all of it.

Which means you're stuck trying to figure out whether to hold on to a roster spot or not with him in redraft. If you play in a Fantasy league without at least one IR spot, would you please get that changed in 2022? I mean, every other player in the league is hurt every other week. Please join this century of FF play. I digress…

We’ll have to see how bad the Toney news is, but in redraft it’s going to be a tough hold (if you don’t have an IR)…especially as bye weeks hit and your week-to-week needs mount. If Toney is back in 3-4 weeks, we still don’t know what his pattern of use will be when (if) Golladay-Shepard and Barkley, and Toney are all together playing at the same time.

All I know is I’m going to try to hold on for as long as I can make sense of it. Toney is just showing to be too good…arguably the best WR weapon from the 2021 NFL Draft. I knew he was athletically ‘good’ but with off-field worries as a cloud over it – but I never saw him being this superior. He’s too good to give up on easily in redraft. And the fact that they came right out firing to him this game with Sterling Shepard back and despite Toney’s wobbly ankle…love it, love that they used him hot. There may be 2-3-5 names at WR who get better treatment by their offense than Toney the last two weeks. That’s saying something.

In Dynasty, I bypassed Toney or rookie drafted him as a flyer but then traded him for real players in the preseason…and, now, I’m on the prowl to reacquire. I’m not filled with regret about bypassing him or trading him away. We have to make those decisions all the time in FF/Dynasty. I’m fine bypassing, sitting back and observing, and then pouncing on the reality. You don’t have to be right first (although that seems to be the ultimate goal of every Fantasy GM, even above ‘winning’ games/titles), and I want to be ‘right’ first/early on every player, but in the end -- I just have to be right last. Most all of my Dynasty teams are filled with players I vetted/didn’t take initially because they had too much risk like in a bad situation or just I was willing to wait for them to have a ‘meh’ rookie start and then swoop in when the original buyer had their predictable remorse…and then I saw them play against the NFL bodies, and was captivated, and then went out and made moves to get them over time.

The problem with that theory is…when we’re all geared up to attack/go after a player in trade, the current owner is not always compliant. That’s why timing and patience is so important. Like I said last week: I wanted Toney BAD…desperately. LOVED what I saw. BUT, last week, after his huge week WAS NOT the time to make the best deal. If you waited a week, we thought this very scenario (the ankle injury issue) could happen to drive the price down off the white hot it was this time last week.

In Dynasty, we WANT in on Toney…but we know there is risk (his off-field concerns) and we know his current owner has rookie fever. We just sit and wait for this price to drop. If he goes on IR for three weeks (min.)…or is having season ending surgery – we let that news sink in and then go shopping.

Here’s the typical Fantasy GM’s trade logic, which needs to be corrected…

1) We WANT ___ player.

2) We determine we want him because we saw the sweet plays in the game or on highlights or on tape after. It’s like an advertisement for a must-have product…we see it, we crave it. Now, we REALLY want him…why, we saw it with our own two eyes!

3) I start writing love letters about it and we’re all whipped into an extra motivated frenzy.

4) We make the player an IDOL…a to-do list item that you can’t sleep until you scratch that to-do off your list. It becomes an obsession.

5) You go barreling in and texting the owner, after the player has his amazing output week, to see ‘What do you want for Toney?’…thus, clearly identifying/telegraphing the object of your desire and doubling the price on the spot. Like going onto a car lot, going right to one car and telling the closest salesperson…I want this car only, how much is it? Do you think you’re getting a deal that way? That owner will remember you did that telegraph for days, weeks, months of your Toney acquisition hopes. You’ll never correct the price from that full-speed approach.

Let’s all keep calm. We’re all excited about Toney. Let it breathe a little. If we don’t get him now, we’ll get him later…or there will be a new Toney to love every 2-3 weeks. The way to play the market on Toney is waiting…time/his ankle is on our side in Dynasty acquisitions for the future.

Once I see the extent of the injury – then I’m coming in hot. Stealth, but hot. He’s the kind of talent to consider over-trading for. But let’s see what’s up with the ankle…let’s take a breath…then see what kind of deals we may want to make.

Or…sitting it all out is fine. We could go barreling in here and then two months…six months off with this injury and who knows what Toney is going to do with a bunch of time off to work on his rap career? Just know…I’m going to be all over the Toney story/valuations all year and into next year. I won’t let us forget.

 -- I can’t imagine Kenny Golladay is rushing back now either, with NYG dead, but he should be back Week 8 (likely out Week 7). If Toney is gone for a while, then Sterling Shepard (10-76-0/14) is going to be a steady PPR WR1 possibility on catch volume, but looking at Golladay’s work with Daniel Jones…and the world turning so sour on KG with his time away (see how time away hurts value…that’s the model with Toney) and the KG numbers were kinda underwhelming for the season total – people are giving him away/giving up on him and NYG.

NOW, is the time to steal KG as a WR3 price -- but acquiring with the hopes of him as a cheap WR1.5 hopeful. His last healthy game with Dan Dimes and Barkley playing: (6-116-0/7) against a very good Saints secondary. I love what I see of Golladay-Jones. Golladay is a great buy low, right NOW…before he plays again. If he’s coming back this week, or next.

 -- If Daniel Jones (29-51 for 242 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs, 3-4-0) ever gets back Golladay-Toney-Shepard at the same time – he has one of the best WR trios in the NFL at his disposal.

But the thing that really makes Dimes hum…if Saquon is back. Dimes is not so good that he will thrive as a known passer because Barkley is out. The Saquon fear changes defenses and opens up things for the passing game like Derrick Henry does for Ryan Tannehill.

Dan Jones is a week-to-week flyer FF QB based on matchup with his WR duo or trio on the field together. But he’s a possible QB1 with that trio PLUS Saquon, because Jones will run for numbers on top of being effective enough in the passing game.

Daniel Jones Weeks 1-4 (with Barkley): the #5-6 FF QB (depending upon 4 or 6pts per pass TD)

Dan Dimes Weeks 5-6 (with Barkley gone): Not in the top 30 for FF scoring per game.

This game was a Dimes disaster, but I am ignoring it…blotting it from his record. No Saquon…no Golladay…then no Toney. No chance.

 -- The Giants have had a revolving door of injured KEY players in and out all season, and no matter who is in or out and what opportunities then open up for others to step up – Evan Engram (3-24-0/5) never perks up for FF numbers in 2021.

You have to deem him dead for FF 2021…your only hope being that a tanking Giants team just sells him off before the trade deadline and that he lands in a refreshed, upgraded place.

Where to? Indy or Minnesota, as a guess.

 -- This entire game was a farce, so not many Rams things to note. But here’s three for the road…

1) Cooper Kupp (9-130-2/12) is the new Davante Adams…you know it’s coming, but no one (but ARI) can stop it.

2) Due to injuries in the secondary, rookie CB Robert Rochell (5 tackles, 1 INT) has found himself in the starting lineup. He tested big-time at his Pro Day (which was a bit suspicious, but…) – a 4.41 40-time, 1.51 10-yard, 43” vertical, 11’1” broad, 6.84 three-cone.

He’s likely to get picked on a lot as a rookie and has the athleticism to make plays/tackles/IDP numbers within that.  

3) Blocking TE Johnny Mundt got hurt/lost for the season here…which low-key led to rookie TE adoration-of-mine Jacob Harris (0-0-0/0) playing his first 6 offensive snaps of the season.

It’s not Jacob Harris FF-time yet, but note…if Harris is going to be forced to play snaps now, then he will see some targeting, it will make this offense more dangerous, and the Harris minor FF-money withdrawals comes out of the FF bank of Tyler Higbee (5-36-0/5), who will probably be in to block a little more as Harris runs a few pass routes…or Higbee just out of the game while Harris gets work late in blowouts – of which the LAR schedule says is coming. Harris’s presence is not going to crush Higbee, but it’s now a potential issue for him for FF production.

Snap Counts of Interest:

68 = Shephard

46 = Pettis

43 = C Johnson

32 = Ross

06 = Toney

54 = Booker

15 = Penny

00 = Brightwell

55 = Engram

34 = Rudolph

54 = DHendo

12 = Michel

58 = Woods

55 = Kupp

42 = Van Jefferson

16 = DJax

66 = Higbee

06 = J Harris

Ross Jacobs

FFM

19 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Steelers 20, Seahawks 17 

Two dying teams played, and one of them won. End of story.

Seriously, this game was a real downer. 3-4 years ago the Seahawks vs the Steelers would have been quite the show. In 2021? Not so much.

The Steelers jumped out to a 17-0 lead and looked like they were going to blow the doors off the weaker Seahawks, but credit Seattle for hanging in there and eventually finding a way to tie the game. They still aren't going anywhere with or without Russell Wilson, but it was a nice effort anyways.

Pittsburgh has become so sad to watch. Big Ben is a shell of himself. He's got no arm strength left and can't even read defenses anymore it seems. He's just blinding flinging short passes to Diontae Johnson and Najee Harris. That's their offense. It's just the Steel City version of what's going on in Miami. Seriously, I might rather have Tua as my QB than Ben at this point. They are basically the same guy except Tua is slightly more careful with the ball.

Neither of these teams is going to have a winning record. The Steelers might come close with a decent defense, but I bet the schedule beats them down. The Seahawks don't even have an ok defense to lean on. Their defense is utter garbage. They are a lock for last in the NFC West.

Fantasy Notes

--If you didn't trade Chase Claypool (2-17-0/7) hot off of last week's fluke game you're kind of screwed. I wasn't able to pull the trigger either. It's so hard. Claypool is the most dangerous, majestic talent in the entire league. I get constant fantasies of “what if?” What if the Steelers put it together? What if Ben is just going through a funk and shakes off the rust? Juju is gone, so what if Claypool gets a ridiculous amount of targets to make up for the inefficiency?

You have to try and block all that out. There is no saving grace here, no way out for Claypool. He's stuck in a terrible offense with a QB that can't throw it downfield, and he's the 3rd option in said bad offense. There will likely be random good weeks to tease us from time to time, but the reality is that Claypool is a WR3 for the foreseeable future. I hate it, but we have to face the facts. If he lucks into another spike game try to flip him into something more solid. Otherwise, you're just stuck hoping his down weeks don't hurt you too badly.

--What's bad for Claypool is somewhat good for Diontae Johnson (9-71-0/13). He's Ben's go-to, his Davante/Kupp. Literally every other pass is a 5 yard route to DJ. It's not great work, but for ppr it's fine. The volume alone will sustain him.

--What's bad for Claypool and somewhat good for Diontae is fantastic for Najee Harris (24-81-0, 6-46-1/7). Harris is the fantasy winner of this travesty. RC and I heard Chris Collinsworth proclaim that Najee has top end speed and is one of the most talented young receivers in the league...and we both nearly had an aneurysm. Najee is neither of those things, and they don't matter since he can never get up to top speed anyways. Literally every run is for 1-2 yards. It's a joke.

And yet...it doesn't matter for fantasy. Doesn't matter how slow he is, or how bad the offensive line is, or that every defense knows exactly what is coming when the Steelers pull Diontae and Claypool off the field for Ebron...none of it matters. All that matters is that the Steelers LOVE them some Najee, and he is going to take 20 carries and get 5+ targets every single game. Najee is a top 4 or 5 RB lock for 2021 just on the volume.

For dynasty it's a bit murkier. Josh Jacobs got similar treatment his rookie year, with similar efficiency, and similar results, and look how that's turned out. Just because Najee succeeds this year does not mean he will automatically be ok for fantasy next year or in 2023. Maybe it works out, maybe it doesn't, but I'm not going to be on that train if/when it crashes. I don't like what I see from Harris, haven't all year. RC was the first to sound the alarm in the preseason, and nothing has changed. Unless Najee undergoes a David Montgomery-esque transformation in the off-season, I have no interest in him long term.

--Pat Freiermuth (7-58-0/7) is starting to come on a little too (yet another possible thing to drag Claypool down). His snaps and targets have been steadily growing each week, and it looks like he's earned Ben's trust. He'll be the 3rd short, safe pass going forward, the guy Ben can hit when DJ and Najee are covered. Freiermuth is likely available on waivers and should be a safe ppr guy going forward, not a top 5 TE or anything, but a safe harbor in the stormy seas that are fantasy TE's right now.

--As I warned last week after the Wilson injury, DK Metcalf (6-58-0/7) and Tyler Lockett (2-35-0/7) are screwed. Metcalf still has some vague hopes of remaining relevant as he has become the main target, but it's going to be up and down results most weeks. Lockett is unusable.

--The best thing left on this Seattle offense for fantasy is Alex Collins (20-101-1). I previously recommended him as a spot starter while Chris Carson was out due to how well he was playing and the team's obvious love for him, but even I didn't think it would go this well against a tough Steelers defense. Carson is dealing with a neck injury and will be out for some time, possibly the whole year, and as long as he is Collins should remain a RB1.5-2.

IDP Notes

--Bobby Wagner (14 tackles) now has 65 tackles on the year for an average of 10.8 per game.

--His teammate Jordyn Brooks (14 tackles) has 48 for an average of 8 per game. Both are among the league leaders.

--Alex Highsmith (7 tackles, 1.5 sacks) is trending up and is really starting to fill in well for the departed Bud Dupree. Just a really good complementary pass rusher across from TJ Watt.

*RC NOTE: I think Highsmith has more juice than a complement...he’s a talent, first and foremost, but then mix that with Watt garnering so much attention that Highsmith could ride the Watt wave to a 10+ sack season himself. I think a breakout for Highsmith sacks is on the verge…

Snap Counts of Interest

69 = Diontae Johnson

63 = Chase Claypool

52 = Ray-Ray McCloud

45 = Pat Freiermuth

34 = Eric Ebron

58 = Tyler Lockett

51 = Freddie Swain

49 = DK Metcalf

47 = Will Dissly

31 = Gerald Everett

39 = Alex Collins

22 = DeeJay Dallas

R.C. Fischer

FFM

19 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Cardinals 37, Browns 14

I think it’s OK to add the Arizona Cardinals to the top NFL teams discussion…no longer just talking about the AFC teams as all the best in the biz. They whooped the Browns here, but to be fair…the Browns didn’t have Nick Chubb, but even worse – they had some pretty suspect penalties called against them in the 1st-half that pushed Arizona drives and began to break the back of the Browns. Nine penalties for 88 yards against Cleveland here…and some pretty ridiculous ones. Arizona might have won comfortably without the penalties, but it sure didn’t help the Browns.

Arizona played a great game…because how could they survive without their head coach?!?! They played their best game. The Raiders were nice without Jon Gruden. Head coaches are wildly overrated. Players are underrated (by head coaches).

The Cardinals are now (6-0)…and their schedule is now begging them to go 14-15 wins if Kyler stays healthy. A top NFL offense, and THEE top NFL defense along with Buffalo. They will win the NFC West and fight Dallas, and maybe Green Bay, for the #1 seed in the NFC.

Cleveland is now (3-3)…but don’t dismiss them as ‘average’ – they have losses to Arizona, Kansas City, and the Chargers. And they weren’t overwhelmed by any of those teams, on tape/to me. The Browns bigger issue is health…they have issues in the backfield, and with Baker, and every week 1-2 starters out on defense. If Baker can heal up…the Browns should win 11 or so games and battle Baltimore for the AFC North…but then could be the shock run in the playoffs if they can get everyone healthy. The Browns are better than the Ravens, I believe…but the Ravens have caught breaks so far this season that the Browns have not.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The Browns lost their heart & soul player in this game…Kareem Hunt (14-66-0, 3-12-0/3). Carted off with a calf injury that will put him out 4-6 weeks…maybe longer.

Nick Chubb missed the game with a calf injury…and he’s 50-50 for Week 7 because it’s a Thursday night game.

D’Ernest Johnson (1-2-0, 1-9-0/1) not Demetric Felton (2-14-0/2), in my opinion, will be the lead back if both Chubb and Hunt are gone Week 7. He’s been a backup RB in Cleveland for years. Felton has played almost exclusively WR in the preseason, practice, and in games. Johnson is the right call for FF.

Johnson is a lesser/equal Alvin Kamara in my eyes. Should already be playing more snaps in an NFL backfield, but when you have Chubb-Hunt, there’s no room for Johnson. Week 7 there finally might be an opportunity for D’Ernest – against a Denver defense missing it’s two opening day starting interior linebackers.

Be careful on waivers spending on D’Ernest -- because Chubb could be back Week 7, and then Johnson is useless. If Chubb returns Week 8, Johnson will NOT be in the Hunt/split role. Last year, Chubb got hurt and then Hunt took 90%+ of the work with Johnson playing a minor role until Chubb returned. You are at risk of getting a one-week rental, at best, from D’Ernest.

 -- Standout player in this game…no doubt, it’s Donovan Peoples-Jones (4-101-2/5).

Sometimes a WR has a good game, and we get eyes on them because they’re athletic and in a good spot like a Kalif Raymond was for a few weeks, or they’re just a good/solid WR like Tim Patrick. Some WRs are in the right place at the right time for a pop game. This is not what I am seeing with DPJ.

This performance was like what a real #1 WR would produce/show. Here watch and see: https://youtu.be/uqPR0UqOfY4

The guy didn’t have a basic catch in the whole game…every catch was a highlight reel, against the top cover team in the NFL. I was WILDLY impressed with this performance…and I saw some blips of it last week but didn’t fully see the change happening. I saw it in this game. His last two games: 4.5 rec., 85.5 yards, 1.0 TDs per game.

Now, I’m not so sure this works next week or consistently the rest of the season. Odell Beckham is a whiner and tends to demand targets/Baker feeds the baby. When Jarvis Landry returns, it pushes DPJ out into the cold some more…or at least it used to. It may be all different now…Baker may have found his real #1 WR. This DPJ bump the last two weeks has occurred with Baker looking less to OBJ and more to DPJ.

This may be more of a Dynasty deeper roster hold/acquire and sit and wait/watch than a ‘rush him onto a redraft roster immediately’ situation, but I might put him on some redrafts this week as a sit and hold and watch. In 2022, OBJ-Landy should be long gone -- and Peoples-Jones left as the real veteran/experienced guy with Baker. Who the Browns sign or draft could muddy it up some more.

 -- We also have the Cleveland issue of Baker Mayfield (19-28 for 234 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) playing with an injured labrum. People-Jones is a downfield worker…and how good is Baker’s arm right now?

Baker is going to try and play through it, but Case Keenum might be the better option this week for CLE…and DPJ. I think the odds Baker goes on IR is 60-670%, and the odds he’s out for Week 7 TNF is about 85-90%. Then we have no idea what Keenum will prefer to throw to.

 -- I love what I saw of Peoples-Jones this week, but I’d rather hold Rondale Moore (3-10-0, 3-16-0/4). Two more carries as a pure tail back this week, again. Three carries total. He’s starting to get as many carries as ‘starting RB’ Chase Edmonds (4-46-0, 3-4-0/4).

Plus, Moore is getting good bubble screen work. He’s getting good touches, but no big game off it this week. The Cardinals have so many options Kyler is using…we might not get past WR3/Flex for RoMo.

 -- Did David Njoku (1-6-0/2) follow up his huge Week 5 game? Nope. Back to a nobody. False alarm, I guess. But Arizona is so good in coverage of the TEs, I’m not fully closing the door on it yet.

 -- The Browns-DST was one of the hottest DSTs on FF a few weeks ago, but then giving up 47 and 37 the last two weeks ended that heat. We have to consider that they got beat up by LAC and ARI…two of the best offenses in football.

Four of the next 5 weeks, they are NOT playing top offenses.

Week 7 = vs. DEN

Week 8 = vs. PIT

Week 9 = at CIN (might be OK)

Week 10 = at NE

Week 11 = DET

I still think this Browns defense is a top 10 NFL defense, and they’re about to go back to a favorable schedule against porous O-Line teams. Could be a sweet run about to happen.

 -- The Cardinals defense, for my money, at full strength, is the best defense in football that I see with my own two eyes. I said that they were the best/the wow of the preseason and then jumped fully on it for FF in Weeks 1-2, where I didn’t have Buffalo (and some where I did). Now, they are the #2 scoring DST in FF and they have held down the Titans, Rams, and Browns this season.

Week 7 is a DST gift from God…vs. HOU.

And I’m actually not that afraid of Week 8 vs. GB anymore…between the excellence of the ARI-DST and the decline of the GB offense.

Arizona is almost becoming a no-bench policy DST, no matter who they oppose.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Peoples-Jones

37 = Higgins

32 = OBJ

44 = Hooper

26 = Njoku

17 = Bryant

41 = Hunt

12 = D’Ernest

68 = AJG

67 = Hopkins

64 = Kirk

42 = Rondale

41 = Conner

28 = Edmonds

Ross Jacobs

FFM

17 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Buccaneers 45, Dolphins 17 

Nothing very surprising happened here. The Dolphins played about as well as could be expected and hung in with the champs until midway through the second quarter before the dam broke and the Bucs ran away with it.

Miami is floundering. They have a decent core of players but no real star power or ways to hurt opposing teams. Tua coming back isn't going to magically fix their problems either. Luckily for them they get three of the worst teams in the league in their next four games so that should help right the ship a little. Their path to .500 doesn't look good though. RC and I should cash our Miami Under bets easily.

The Bucs, however, are right on track for what we've been predicting all year. They are a high flying, air-it-out offense with Brady calling the shots, and the defense is just trying to get a stop or two to seal the game. The elite defense of 2020 is gone. Now they are playing like the Chiefs with Mahomes or the Saints for so many years with Brees. Try to score 30 points and hope it's enough. Most weeks it will be. The Bucs have a relatively easy schedule and should have no problem finishing with a top 2-3 seed in the NFC.

Fantasy Notes

--During the preseason I noted how the Bucs offense seemed to be going all-in on Brady chucking bombs all over and here we are. Through five weeks Brady leads the league in yards with 1767 (353.4/g) and is second to Mahomes in TD's with 15. Depending on your scoring system he's right at the top as well, probably second behind Mahomes. The schedule is favorable and barring injury Brady should be able to maintain a similar pace all year.

--Last week I went over the three Bucs receivers and how they were all being targeted fairly evenly by Brady and how every week two of them seemed to get nice fantasy scoring while the third had a more normal output.

This week it was Mike Evans (6-113-2/8) and Antonio Brown (7-124-2/8) that flourished while Chris Godwin (7-70-0/11) was somewhat left out of the party despite receiving the greatest number of targets. Who knows which ones will score next week. All I know is all three guys are fantasy useful and at least WR2's.

Note that while Brown had the best fantasy week he also had a majority of his points come from one awesome catch and run play. I wouldn't necessarily discount this however as Brown has proven to be the most explosive of the three and the one Brady looks to for big plays. He's going to have his down weeks occasionally but he's still a big part of this offense.

--I speculated last week that Leonard Fournette (12-67-1, 4-43-0/5) might start to dominate the split between him and Ronald Jones (5-21-0, 1-15-0/1) and that's precisely what we got here. Jones barely saw the field until late in the game and looks to be falling behind even Giovani Bernard (4-21-0, 2-14-1/2) a bit. This could all change any given week, but I think for now it's safe to roll with Fournette as a nice safe option.

*RC NOTE: I am told that Gio B. is starting to fall out of favor in Tampa Bay. RoJo is already in a quasi doghouse. If you can buy Leonard Fournette as a random RB2 guy in a backfield mix, you should try and buy low or buy reasonable -- he’s got RB1 potential. More on this tonight on the Video Q&A.

--In Gronkowski's absence it has been OJ Howard and not Cameron Brate that has played the majority of snaps. It hasn't translated to fantasy points yet, but if Gronk is out for a while there will be a game eventually where Howard breaks a big play and finishes with a huge game. Good luck trying to time it though.

--God bless Jacoby Brissett (27-39 for 275 yards, 2 TD/1 INT). He is trying so hard to keep this team in games. Unfortunately though he's just not very good and neither is anyone else on this offense. The blocking isn't good, the pass catchers can't separate, and the RB's are led by the uninspiring Gaskin. I don't see any hope for this group as a whole.

--There was some concern last week about Myles Gaskin (5-25-0, 10-74-2/10) and his role after he took a backseat to Malcolm Brown. It was my opinion that the fear was unfounded and Gaskin would return to normal this week and he did. If you played him here, congratulations, but don't count on this every week. He isn't catching 10 passes and scoring twice every week. That was simply the result of game flow and Tampa's aggressiveness. Most weeks he'll be closer to 10 carries for 35-40 yards to go along with 3 catches for another 20 or so. It's decent work but not worth much for fantasy unless you're incredibly desperate.

Brown was a ghost here which further cements my guess that last week was a matchup thing. Of course, that does mean that it's always possible Miami could turn to Brown again if they think he works better for the game plan than Gaskin. Just something to be aware of in case you're starting Gaskin for whatever reason.

--As this passing game dies with Brissett all the WR's are getting taken down. There's no one player they lean on anyways and it renders this group impossible to start with any confidence. With DeVante Parker out this week it opened things up for Preston Williams (3-60-0/5) to resurface. He looked pretty good, definitely Miami's best receiver for what that's worth. I'd love to see what he could do with a real QB, but this is what we're stuck with. Shame. If Parker is out Williams could be worth a dart throw, but the second Parker is back Williams can be safely dropped. Miami has shown no inclination to actually use him.

IDP Notes

--Ok, ok, Devin White (8 tackles) was the top tackler for Tampa this week...but only because Lavonte David (2 tackles, 1 sack) got hurt in the first half. David will be out for a few weeks to heal his ankle. This does potentially open up things for White a little, but I still don't trust him as this defense falls apart around him.

Snap Counts of Interest

58 = Mike Evans

51 = Chris Godwin

42 = Antonio Brown

46 = Leonard Fournette

17 = Giovani Bernard

10 = Ronald Jones

44 = OJ Howard

28 = Cameron Brate

43 = Jaylen Waddle

40 = Preston Williams

42 = Mike Gesicki

36 = Durham Smythe

21 = Adam Shaheen

37 = Myles Gaskin

11 = Salvon Ahmed

5 = Malcolm Brown

Ross Jacobs

FFM

16 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Titans 37, Jaguars 19 

The score says this game was a one-sided blowout, but I'm here to tell you that the Jaguars played their best game all year and were at least equal to the Titans if not better. Surprised? So was I.

Things were going wrong for Jacksonville almost immediately. They lost a catch and fumble on the very first drive that Tennessee returned for a TD. 7-0 Titans.

On their next drive, James Robinson got a wide open hole and busted off a 58 yard run that would set the Jaguars up for a TD. They missed the extra point and it was 7-6.

Tennessee got the ball and Tannehill nearly threw a pick 6, but Shaq Griffin dropped the ball. A terrible roughing the passer call would save the Titans drive and they scored to make it 14-6. The Jaguars came right back with another score themselves and the game was 14-13.

The Titans would score yet again to extend their lead to 21-13, but the Jaguars weren't done. They drove down the field yet again, but failed to capitalize by missing a FG. The Titans, however, now had good field position and drove for a field goal of their own right before the 1st half ended. The Jaguars were down 24-13, but it was only bad luck that the score wasn't closer. Could they mount any sort of comeback?

They certainly didn't quit and it looked like they might build some momentum in the 2nd half when Chaisson sacked Tannehill and thought he got a fumble, but a Tennessee challenge upheld the incomplete pass call and the Titans retained possession. Henry would eventually score on the drive and the Titans were up 31-13. The game looked over.

Jacksonville still wasn't done though and put together a nice drive capped off by a Lawrence run for a TD. They missed the 2-point conversion and it was 31-19 Titans. The Jaguars stopped Tennessee's next possession, got the ball back, and drove down to the 1 yard line. An inaccurate pass, a dropped pass, and a baffling rush attempt to Carlos Hyde would see the Jaguars turn the ball over on downs.

It was an incredibly stupid decision to give Hyde the most important carry of the game with a chance to get back within a score, despite the fact that Robinson had been the far superior back all game and all year. Just the latest misstep by the genius Urban Meyer.

The last Tennessee score would come with under 2 minutes left as the Titans just tried to run out the clock.

The Jaguars absolutely did not give up at any point in this game although they obviously have plenty of reasons to. It was just not their day, and a combination of bad luck events kept them from winning here. Unless they fall apart because of Meyer, I think this team might actually be getting their legs under them. The defense is on the come (they really had Henry bottled up for most of the game and were getting after Tannehill). The offense isn't a terrible mess anymore and are starting to put some things together. Don't sleep on them this week against Miami.

As for the Titans, I really don't see a good team here. They are 3-2 with their wins coming over a beaten up Colts team, a somewhat lucky win over the lowly Jaguars, and a come from behind win over the Seahawks. They got spanked opening day by the Cardinals and beaten by the Jets somehow. Three of their next four weeks are the Bills, Chiefs, and Rams. If they lose to the Colts in the middle of that then it's entirely possible they are looking at a 3-6 hole with the Colts coming on fast. Things are about to get ugly in Tennessee over the next month.

Fantasy Notes

--I still don't particularly like Trevor Lawrence (23-33 for 273 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 7-28-1), but he's starting to settle in a little bit. He still throws some really dumb passes, but I've seen fewer of them in recent weeks. I still think of him as a combination of a young Alex Smith and Carson Wentz.

--James Robinson (18-149-1) has been on an absolute tear recently. Hopefully everyone was able to get in on him before the blowup with the early warning from RC. His situation hasn't changed at all.

--The new kid on the block in Jacksonville is Dan Arnold (6-64-0/8) and boy does he look good. I was complaining about his usage in Carolina the first few weeks, and that doesn't seem to be an issue here. Jacksonville went and got him with a purpose, and I'm shocked how quickly he's gotten integrated. This was no fluke. He was the main look for Lawrence all day long. I see no reason to fade this connection, so if you're dying at TE and can't get in on Schultz or Knox then this is where to go. Arnold could be a top 8 TE the rest of schedule.

--Sorry RC, but much as I wanted there to be a Jamal Agnew (6-41-0/7, 1-8-0) uprising, it isn't happening yet. Agnew is involved with the offense, at least he's on the field a lot, but not involved to the degree we want to see. He's just a random option right now. 4 of his 6 catches came in the final minute of the game as Jacksonville was trying to score a grace TD. There was no real move to have him involved to a significant degree early in the game. He does look as fast and strong as I've ever seen him though. He looks like a jacked up version of Deonte Harris. If Meyer has any sense at all they will start giving him a couple more carries and a few bubble screens.

--The WR that was more involved, despite seeing far fewer snaps than Agnew, was Tavon Austin (5-54-0/5) for whatever reason. He's the same player he always was. Small and reasonably quick. I guess you could try to use him as a desperation WR3 play, but I wouldn't.

--If you want a Jacksonville WR it has to be Marvin Jones (1-25-0/6). He and Lawrence couldn't connect here, but Jones is definitely the guy Lawrence looks for at WR. He's a decent WR2.5 most weeks.

--Laviska Shenault (1-58-0/3) showed off his strength on a long catch and run where he broke multiple tackles. He isn't heavily involved right now and can't really be used for fantasy, but it looks like the Jaguars are changing how they use him. Previously he was a short ball player, lots of bubble screens and drags. Now he's starting to work more medium range and is running actual routes. He might be better off this way as more of a possession receiver than trying to work the short stuff with his lack of burst. Think of him like a big Terrace Marshall, something like that.

--Why are we still fading Derrick Henry (29-130-3) in the year 2021? Henry is an institution at this point. He has 141 carries on the year for an average of 28.2 per game. He's taken at least 28 carries in every game but the Arizona game where they got smacked. He's on pace for 479 carries. The all-time carry record is 416 by Larry Johnson. Now I'm sure that's going to come down a little bit as the season wears on, but come on, you can't deny this any longer. He IS the Tennessee offense.

--Ryan Tannehill (14-22 for 197 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-21-0) had another muted day, and that was for two reasons. 1) Jacksonville's defensive line was all over him. And 2) They didn't need to throw very much. Nearly everything he connected on was a simple drag route over the middle. He's still playing the same smart, safe football he has for the last two years. So far it's just been a larger dose of Henry and less passing. I do think he will trend up a little, but don't expect massive gains, just a bit closer to his averages from 2019 and 2020. 220-250 yards and 1-2 TD's per game.

--Ok time for a rare point of departure from RC. After watching this game I think that AJ Brown (3-38-0/6) actually is a good buy-low candidate. I saw nothing wrong with his knees. He was moving fine. Caught the ball well. The missed connections had nothing to do with Brown and everything to do with Jacksonville's defensive ends hanging all over Tannehill. Tennessee knew they didn't have to do much here. They just needed to keep feeding Henry with the lead and let Jacksonville hang themselves. They will have to throw a lot more in the coming weeks to try and keep themselves in games. With Julio out, Brown is far and away their best option, and I don't think he'll be double covered because teams are so hell-bent on trying (and failing) to stop Henry right now.

You can't overpay though. We want him cheap because that's what his owner thinks he's worth right now. He only has name value, but he's been “killing” his owner so you can bet they are ready to dump him and only haven't because of last year. We want to take a nice cheap look to see if he's got bounce back WR1.5 potential. There might not be enough value if his owner is being stubborn, but I think it's worth a shot at least. There aren't a ton of deals to be had right now, but this looks like one potential one to me.

*RC NOTE: I’ll disagree with Ross’s disagree. I went and rewatched AJB’s Week 5 again, just him, to get another look. I’m more down on AJB after than I was before. He doesn’t look the same. He’s not moving with the same burst. The results are way down. The connection rate is terrible. I’m not paying a still too-high price for this buy low...who is not a buy low because everyone thinks he’ll turn around. 

Something is wrong. He may be secretly hurt and playing through it and is 70% effective...and will improve with time. Could happen...then you got a buy low discussion, but all I can do is see what I see...and I see an entire 2021 where the output in every game is off, he looks slower on tape. I don’t want to buy into a potential problem...for the price it would cost. I’ll just run with Tim Patrick if I have to. If he makes a turn soon, and I missed out on the upside...I’ll be able to live with myself in the morning. Something isn’t right here, to me. 

‍

IDP Notes

--This Jacksonville defensive line is starting to come on. Josh Allen (7 tackles, 0.5 sack, 1 pd) and K'Lavon Chaisson (6 tackles, 1 sack, 2 tfl) were all up in Tannehill's grill all day even if they didn't always get the sack themselves. Two weak offensive lines coming up for them against the Dolphins and the Seahawks with Geno. Just keep in mind that Tua is probably back this week and likes to dump the ball like a hot potato, so the sacks might be limited there.

Snap Counts of Interest

66 = Marvin Jones

52 = Laviska Shenault

45 = Jamal Agnew

24 = Tavon Austin

48 = James Robinson

18 = Carlos Hyde

52 = Dan Arnold

22 = Chris Manhertz