R.C. Fischer

FFM

07 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Giants 27, Saints 21

With 12 minutes to go, the Saints pulled ahead 21-10 and it looked like the -7.0 underdog Giants were going down and not getting within the spread. Then the Giants stepped on the gas and scored 11 points to tie it at the end of regulation, then won the coin toss and stormed down the field and scored a TD…and that’s all she wrote.

Great win for the Giants. Honestly, this was an equally matched game…or I’d vote the Giants were the better team, not just this moment…just the better team in general. This was a gutsy, hard-fought win…a come from behind at a tough road place to play.

The Giants are now (1-3), and really they should be (2-2) with that lame ending to their Washington game/loss. They could be (3-1) had they not played flat against terrible Atlanta. I can’t tell if the Giants are just a decent but erratic team that had a great game here…or if they are really a good team/low-end playoff contender. They really are not a bad team. Not a great team, but not a joke either. If they go and beat Dallas this week – they’re right back into the NFC East race. Lose, and the season might be slipping away. It’s a Super Bowl for NYG this week. I have a funny feeling they are going to win it…just my gut. Not the data.

The Saints are good, but they have a major problem making them ‘mediocre’…and that’s Jameis Winston. He’s the worst starting QB in the NFL (not counting Davis Mills as a starter). If the Saints want to save the season, they need to swap out Winston…but I don’t know that Taysom Hill is any great answer either (better for FF). I would not be surprised if the Saints are the one who makes the bold move for Deshaun Watson.

If I were the Saints, I’d make this Watson move now in the light of the Urban Meyer stuff…it’s a little cover to do what nonsense Urban is doing – a lame apology and take a few public relation hits and move on. They aren’t winning a division or going to the playoffs with Jameis, so they might as well take the heat and try to sneak Watson through the front door.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- First things first…

And I can’t believe I’m typing this (for the 2nd or 3rd time this season), but I need to acknowledge it…

Daniel Jones (28-40 for 402 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) looks damn good. Not great, but good. Not mediocre…or just ‘improved’…he looks bona fide the word ‘good’.

I’ve been against Dan Dimes from day one. Didn’t like his vision for reading the field. I thought he buckled under pressure too quickly and was prone to make terrible throws. And I wasn’t wrong with that assessment for his first two seasons. But there’s been a change in 2021.

Sam Darnold is still pretty weak, but he has improved…no longer horrible but maybe mediocre…Taylor Heinicke level acceptable work. This is not that with Daniel Jones. It’s not a full Josh Allen leave my jaw dropped on the floor turn either. This is Jones going from a ‘D’ student to a solid C+ student. The parallel that comes to mind…he’s turning into a Ryan Tannehill…good enough to win…good enough to put up numbers. Not just a game manager. But not elite either.

NFL QBs are getting better and better as the league becomes a 7-on-7 affair most weeks because QBs aren’t rocked by tacklers/sackers as much anymore and many drives are extended due to pass interference plays. It seems like every QB is throwing for 70%+ completion percentage now…where no one used to 5-10 years ago, or maybe one QB did and it was a big deal.

It was a shock in 2011 when Drew Brees completed 71.2% of his passes…a first of its kind.

Five years later, Brees would get there again…but so did Sam Bradford.

Brees did it again in 2017…the king of NFL accuracy.

Then Brees hit a high of 74.4% in 2018, while Kirk Cousins joined the 70% club in 2018.

A new landmark…three QBs, including Brees, hit 70%+ in 2019.

Three more did it again in 2020 (including Brees) in 2020.

This year, Brees is no longer playing but currently seven QBs are about 70% comp. pct. Led by Kyler Murray’s astounding 76.1%.

Soon enough, we will see the first 80% passer in the NFL at this rate.

The game is changing. The QBs are getting better and better, and you can’t touch them nor touch their receivers. And quick passing games and tunnel screens, etc., rule.

A rookie, Mac Jones, is at 70.0% comp. pct. today. Taylor Heinicke is surviving in the NFL. Sam Darnold is getting better. Daniel Jones has gotten a lot better. It doesn’t look like a fluke to me or a ‘system’ with Jones – it’s more that he has just gotten better/more comfortable and he’s off to the races.

Jones is still struggling a bit near the red zone or end zone, but outside of that he’s zinging the ball all over the field making tight window bullet throws over the middle like I’ve never seen him do before…plus he runs for FF points. What’s not to like here for FF?

 -- Jones’s great connection is no longer with Sterling Shepard (DNP), although they’re fine…the sweet music is Jones-to-Kenny Golladay (6-116-0/7).

I’m a buyer of Golladay on the real cheap. He’s a WR2.5 like valuation because people don’t fully embrace the Jones turn, and don’t see Golladay as that guy yet (no TDs and WR3 numbers so far)…but Golladay is a beast and is definitely the Giants #1 WR. As their connection grows the TDs will come.

Golladay is a WR1-1.5 in WR2-2.5 hiding right now…he trades nowhere near his upside as Jones is emerging. Golladay and Michael Pittman are the two WRs laying in the weeds that could shoot to WR1-1.5 in PPR, but trade as ‘meh’ on the market right now.

 -- Further helping Jones…Kadarius Toney (6-78-0/9) is a real talent. He’s a real head case too, but he’s definitely a physical specimen/talent.

I believe Toney will shoot the foot off of his career in time, but that doesn’t mean he can’t work before that. Derrius Guice was once a coveted, productive FF being.

I’ve been ‘shoulder shrug’ at the thought of Toney because Dan Jones didn’t excite me and Shepard-Golladay are the main targets and Darrius Slayton (DNP) is really good too. But with Shepard-Slayton out, Toney played 78% of the snaps and saw a team high 9 targets…on a lot of purposed throws and some just nice finds by Jones. Toney dropped a quick slant that might have been a catch-and-run 50+ yard TD to really light up his FF heat.

If Shepard and Slayton are out again this week…Toney is a legit Flex option Week 5. You might get a pop Week 5 and then trade off in redraft as Shepard returns.

I take back my dismissal of him to begin the week (I thought Shepard would be back, but now I don’t think so).

 -- Who is not good at QB in this era of all QBs are good: Jameis Winston (17-23 for 226 yards, 1 TD/0 INTs). I would tell you if he was, just like I see Jones’s improvements and am willing to admit it despite me being anti-dimes prior.

Winston is god awful…good for little safe dump passes and he occasionally connects a bomb. He’s not a real QB. He is only better than Tua Tagovailoa among the on-purpose starting QBs in the NFL.

Winston’s lack of a medium game is killing an excellent-looking Marquez Callaway (2-74-0/2). Callaway’s FF doldrums are not on him, it’s Winston’s fault.

However, in Winston’s short passing game efforts…Deonte Harris (5-42-0/8) is emerging a little bit. Several designed tunnel screens for him and a near miss or two 30+ yarders. I walk away from this game wondering if Winston has finally discovered Deonte…and Deonte is built for FF. He’s the Saints store brand version of Tyreek Hill, but that ain’t so bad.

Harris is quicker and a better receiver than NYG speedster Josh Ross (3-77-1/4)…who will be an odd-man out when Shepard-Slayton returns.

 -- Tony Jones got hurt and will be out for 4-6 weeks. Who is the new #2 RB? Good question.

I believe it is WR turned RB turned back to WR but now back at RB some, Ty Montgomery (2-7-0, 3-42-0/3). A few weird notes here…

1) Montgomery was getting his passing game as a pure WR here. Dwayne Washington (1-5-0, 1-6-0/1) was actually running as the #2 back at first. It wasn’t later into the game that Montgomery took a few carries when the Saints were trying to run the game out.

2) Montgomery is listed as an RB or RB/WR in most FF leagues, and he could be a discount version of Cordarrelle Patterson while Tony Jones is out – KR, WR turned RB who plays more WR but classified as an RB.

Montgomery could do nothing Week 5…or be a discount CP, as he was in small parts he was in for this game. He booked 50% of the snaps this game, most as a WR. He played one more snap than Deonte Harris did.

 -- Side note: Part of the reason Daniel Jones is improving is his O-Line is improving. He has more time to work. With that, things are looking a bit better for Saquon Barkley (13-52-1, 5-74-1/6) – the numbers aren’t fully there yet, but I think Saquon is about to explode even with teams super-stacking him. Jones’s improvement and the suddenly abundant WR group (when Shepard and Slayton return with Golladay-Toney-Ross-Engram)…this is an on the rise offense that’s starting to get Barkley in place for TDs…big yards soon to follow.

You wanna buy a top 2-3 FF RB for the price of maybe a top 6-12 type of RB, maybe if the current owner is nervous about their season and you make the right offer – Saquon is the target…not Mixon or Edmonds or Moss or Gibson, etc. Shoot for a real deal shot like Barkley.

Snap Counts of Interest:

56 = Callaway

34 = Ty Montgomery

33 = Deonte H

17 = Stills

05 = Dw Washington

39 = Trautman

17 = R Griffin

58 = Golladay

49 = Toney

28 = Ross

19 = Board

43 = Engram

37 = Rudolph

Ross Jacobs

FFM

07 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Chargers 28, Raiders 14 

The final score says the game wasn't particularly close, and if you watched then you did see one moment where the Raiders had pulled the game to within 7 points and were attempting a field goal to make it closer. They would miss that field goal and the Chargers calmly and easily put the Raiders out of their misery on the next drive.

The Raiders may have fought hard and tried to claw their way back in it, but this game was not in doubt, and there is absolutely no doubt who is the better team.

Over the summer some of us put together our faux season projections. One team that RC was particularly high on was the Chargers. I understood why. Justin Herbert just had the greatest rookie season ever at QB. They smartly brought in multiple offensive linemen to protect him. The defense was getting back Derwin James. And the team was going to be managed by the hottest upcoming coach, the defensive guru Brandon Staley.

I liked what I saw. I thought they would be a fine team. I still had a couple of questions about Herbert but nothing too serious. Perhaps they would fare well in the projections this year despite being in the same division as Mahomes and the Chiefs. And then I saw their schedule. Washington, Dallas, Kansas City, Cleveland, Baltimore, New England...all teams I had projected to be potential playoff teams. It looked like a murderer's row. In my final projections I had the Chargers stumbling to a poor record through their first 8 games only to recover in the latter half of the schedule when they played mostly bad teams. They would finish 8-9 in my final projections, certainly not a terrible record, and shockingly make the playoffs.

Well, it turns out I was wrong about two things. First, this team is even better than I supposed. And two, that early schedule isn't nearly as bad as I projected. Cleveland and Baltimore are still a test, and there is a second date with the Chiefs still to go, but the Chargers are ready for it. They are going to come out of this early portion with a winning record, and they are going to mow through the second half of the schedule.

They can absolutely win the AFC West this year, faster than I would have thought possible. I believe they already are the best team in the division. RC, you were ahead of the curve on this one, but I'm jumping aboard the Charger express. Will they pull it off? I'm not sure. Their schedule isn't brutal, but it's still harder than Kansas City's. They will have to beat the Chiefs again for it, but they get them at home next time.

Oh and the Raiders played in this game too. They've played well so far, really fought hard, showed good energy. They aren't a bad team by any means. They'll likely try to stay in the race for a while, but I just don't think they are ready to hang with the two big boys in this division. Carr is a good QB but he's no Herbert or Mahomes, and that's ultimately going to hold them back.

Fantasy Notes

--Justin Herbert (25-38 for 222 yards, 3 TD/0 INT) carved up the Raiders in the first half and could have put up even bigger numbers but the team took their foot off the gas early in the 2nd half. He's only QB14 on the year so far, but I expect him to trend up as the year goes on. He could go nuclear in the second half of the season. Great buy low target right now if possible. The muted second half and his current ppg gives you just a crack to try and sneak him away from a desperate owner.

--It was a muted game for both of Herbert's top two receivers, Keenan Allen (7-36-0/11) and Mike Williams (1-11-0/4). Don't worry about them though. This won't be the typical flow of a game. Herbert was utilizing what was working and got up big early while they tried to sit on a lead. Williams especially is another fantastic buy low candidate but you have to move fast and don't let the owner know how badly you want him. Nobody else believes in Williams like FFM. They think he's going back to his inconsistent ways. He's not though. He's a bona fide WR1.5, possibly better. Don't fear this one weird game. Use it to your advantage. Fast fact: even including this dud of a game, Williams is still the #5 WR in ppr leagues to date.

Speaking of Allen and Williams, one thing this game did clarify was one of the rare disagreements between RC and I. RC was speculating that Williams was the new #1 and would be the higher scoring receiver. I never bought that and I have plenty of Williams stock. I like him as a WR1.5 or so, maybe a back end WR1 when it's all said and done, but I think Allen is a top 5-6 guy this year. Herbert and his targets seem to agree.

RC NOTE: I think Allen is the way better WR, but I think WIlliams will wind up the higher scorer between them this year. But it’s not set in stone. Keenan is awesome too. 

--All things Chargers related are good for fantasy, and that includes one of my favorite players in the league, Austin Ekeler (15-117-1, 3-28-1/5). He doesn't often get you 100+ yard rushing games like this, but it doesn't matter when he's catching a million passes and scoring 15+ points in ppr every game.

Name me all the RB's in ppr that have scored more points than Ekeler to date. Derrick Henry. Done. Name me all the RB's that have scored more than Ekeler in standard. Derrick Henry. Done. 

(RC NOTE: I was gonna say Cord Patterson, but I have to correct myself -- I’ve been using FantasyPros for PPG leaders and I keep seeing CP at #2 RB PPG...so, I’ve been running around claiming he’s the #2 scorer at the position. But FantasyPros, for whatever reason, is ignoring his Week 1...because (I think) he was classified as a WR for them then...and then as an RB the next 3 weeks (his scoring pop), so they are only picking up his best 3 games. So, now I’m the fool who has been saying ‘#2 RB in FF’ all week. He’s not. He's top 10 not top 2. My bad.)

So long as Ekeler remains healthy, always a question mark, he's going to finish as a top 5 back this year.

--If Ekeler does get hurt I believe it's rookie Larry Rountree that will get first crack at replacing him. Justin Jackson was in the game before Rountree, but he looked dreadful and was quickly replaced by the rookie who at least was a plausible replacement. Neither is particularly good however, and I wouldn't be shocked if the Chargers picked up another guy to get in on the rotation behind Ekeler. Marlon Mack perhaps?

--Even Jared Cook (6-70-1/7) is getting in on the action. I still don't think you can trust him every week since he's splitting snaps with Donald Parham, but he's another possible streaming option if you're hurting at TE.

--Derek Carr (21-34 for 196 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) had a nice run of 400 yard games, but it was never going to last as we talked about last week. Sometimes these wild streaks happen and you ride them while you can. It was nice, but it's time to move on. Carr is just another QB2 backup option.

--Josh Jacobs (13-40-0, 5-17-0/5) is so terrible. I'm not even going into it. RC has been warning you to stay away from this one long enough. Nothing good is going to happen here.

--It's officially ok to let go of your Bryan Edwards (1-4-0/4) lottery tickets. Sorry, everyone. I screwed that one up. The good news is it only cost you a late round pick. That's what you do with those late picks. Take a shot on high upside guys. Most of the time it doesn't work out. Sometimes it does. Edwards isn't the problem. The guy can obviously play. But for whatever reason Carr and Gruden just refuse to throw him the ball until there's only 3 minutes left in the game. I still wonder if Edwards might not break out later in the season, but you can't hold him on your bench hoping for a miracle that doesn't seem close to happening. Go chase other things for now. I'll be watching for any signs of an impending breakout though and ready to sound the alarm to grab him again.

--On the season, Darren Waller (4-50-1/7) has 24 catches on 40 targets for 274 yards and 2 TD's. He's the #2 scoring TE so far. What disturbs me is that 48% of his targets, 40% of his catches, 38% of his yards, and 50% of his TD's all came in that first monster game against the Ravens. Since then he's gotten exactly 7 targets a game and either 4 or 5 catches for around 50-60 yards with only 1 TD. Not exactly setting the world on fire. I'm not saying there's a problem here, but I'm growing just a little bit concerned.

--As I talked about weeks ago, Hunter Renfrow (6-45-1/8) is far more important to this passing game than Bryan Edwards no matter how many few snaps he's getting. He's a fine receiver I guess, your usual slot guy. Nice player to help move the chains. But I don't understand spending so much work on him catching 5 yard passes instead of trying to attack with Edwards down the field. The best play he made in this game was recognizing a fake punt the Chargers were running and flying upfield to dislodge the ball after it was caught by a wide open gunner. Great heads up play that helped keep his team in the game just a little bit longer.

Of course now he's being billed as some godly slot receiver because he stopped the fake punt and ran a cool looking route at the goalline for a TD. Those plays are flashy and all, and again he is a solid receiver, but the hype has gotten totally out of control. He's not a star, he's not even a star fantasy player. He's just another boring slot guy that occasionally has a reasonable day when he gets a TD. Don't get sucked into the nonsense.

IDP Notes

--Another week, another great IDP tally for Denzel Perryman (12 tackles, 1 tfl). The guy has been on fire this year. He is averaging 12 tackles per game. That's a pace of 204 tackles for the year. He's not going to be able to maintain that, but he should remain among the league leaders if not the outright #1 tackler.

--Not to be outdone, his teammate Corey Littleton (14 tackles) took it up a notch as well. He's put up 10+ tackles in 3 of 4 games so far this year and is averaging 9.5 per game on the year.

Snap Counts of Interest

39 = Jared Cook

39 = Donald Parham

22 = Larry Rountree

11 = Justin Jackson

51 = Bryan Edwards

46 = Henry Ruggs

38 = Hunter Renfrow

R.C. Fischer

FFM

06 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Ravens 23, Broncos 7

On the first drive of the game, the Broncos were moving the ball and they ran a nice TE wheel route type of play to spring Albert Okwuegbunam open on an easy 50+ yard bomb TD…but Teddy Bridgewater overthrew the pass. It was kinda all downhill from there for Denver.

The Broncos did take a 7-0 lead as the 2nd-quarter opened up, but then were thumped by Baltimore 23-0 nothing from there for a 23-7 loss. Some people will think…if Teddy Bridgewater didn’t get hurt. No…Teddy was killing this offense. Well, Teddy plus a suddenly terrible offensive line. Well…Teddy plus a terrible O-Line plus the worst offensive minds in the NFL for a coaching staff this side of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I talked about it on the Video Q&As last week…there’s something wrong with Denver. My internal indicators were flashing the warning as they got out to a (3-0) start that we projected – and the warnings came to life here, once Denver stopped playing teams who had not won a game in the NFL through the first 3 weeks.

11 QB hits allowed, and 5 sacks given up by the Denver O-Line. When Teddy wasn’t under pressure, he had time but was very inaccurate (was 7-of-16 on the game). This was one of the worst QB passing game performances I’ve seen all year. Not only bad protection, not only Teddy all over the place, but whether with Teddy or Lock – absolutely no life in this offense. Routes are being run with little energy. Players are walking back slowly to the huddle. There’s no positive body language or energy or enthusiasm – and that’s coaching as much as anything else. The head coach is WAY into his defense and his offense is a side nuisance that runs a 1980s-style controlled game with their game manager Teddy Bridgewater…the ‘coach on the field’, because offense is annoying for Vic Fangio, so a game manager is his wet dream. In an ever-increasing passing league, the Broncos are one of the worst passing teams, worst offensive playbook teams in the league – if not the worst. That fact covered up by the easy first 3 weeks schedule. O-C Pat Shurmur’s time has long since passed.

The Broncos are about to go into a tailspin, and it may get the offensive coordinator fired by midseason…and Fangio will be done at the end of the year…unless Aaron Rodgers really wants to play for him, and I can’t see why he would. Denver is going to finish between 7-9 wins…they might sneak into the playoffs, but I now even doubt that.

The Ravens are leading a charmed life. They were better than Denver here, for sure, but that’s not a huge compliment. The Ravens are (3-1) and are lucky they are not (1-3). They want to run the ball, but they can’t, so now they’re trying to be a passing team…which worked a little bit here because Denver was so focused on Lamar running that enough things opened up otherwise. Denver’s defense is good-not-great but they were not good enough to stop Lamar when it counted…with Lamar doing so without his usual big running plays…which is further insult to the Denver defense.

Baltimore is a solid wild card team at best. We project them for 7-9 wins as well with a tough schedule after their Week 9 bye. Baltimore is a better team than Denver, but it’s possible Denver winds up with a better record…but they’ll be close, and this Ravens win could come back to haunt the Broncos in wild card tiebreakers.

…and then there was that minor, meaningless rushing record thing – John Harbaugh is an ass, and everyone inside the league knows it…both Harbaugh kids/coaches are jackasses. Both multi-millionaires and solid enough football coaches, but total tools personality-wise most of the time…in football circles. They may be terrific neighbors, uncles, dads and husbands otherwise, but they do some whacky-S in the football world. I guess most of the people have to have a screw loose in that coaching profession, and we’d all love to have their job I suspect. The whole record thing was dumb, no one cares about the record…even Lamar saying so after the game. If Lamar tore his ACL on the play (he ran it) John Harbaugh would be grilled for it through eternity. But we’ll forget about this in a week and outraged about something else stupid some coach did.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Speaking of this Ravens run game…embarrassing. Latavius Murray (18-59-1) is doing fine running straight ahead for 3.4 yards per carry…and was stopped on a few 3rd & shorts to ruin drives in this game. Harbaugh is doing this to himself, so I hope he burns for it. Murray has scored a TD in three of his 4 games as a Raven…but his Fantasy PPR points in each game this season is still just: 9-10-3-12. He has yet to receive a target from Lamar Jackson. You go ahead and FF-enjoy that…no thanks, for me for my FF teams.

Le’Veon Bell (4-11-0, 0-0-0/1) is the new ‘3rd-down back’, which is a laugh. He still has some minor juice running straight but the moment he has to go side-to-side, it’s over.

The Ravens best running back is Ty’Son Williams, and he was inactive for this game…this game where the Ravens ran 30 times for 102 yards…3.4 ypc. And if it wasn’t for Lamar, it would be even worse.

I still believe Ty’Son can make a comeback/take back this main carry role, because Murray-Bell are so shot…but it’s John Harbaugh, so you never know what he’s going to do. I’d like to hold Ty’Son for another week or two to see if they drop Devonta Freeman (1-4-0) and get Ty’Son back in the mix so he can show how much better he is…again. BUT my FF-teams are cooking right now and I don’t have time for nonsense. I need to play to win, so if I see something better or I’m playing a week or two ahead for byes on DSTs, etc., and I pick up something operational instead and drop Ty’Son, I’ll do it. I want to hold, but I don’t have to hold. Ty’Son is likely dead, but I’m not ready to dig the grave yet. I want the lead back for the Ravens…if they have some talent…like Ty’Son.

 -- As the run game has sunk to the pits, the Ravens are trying to turn Lamar Jackson (22-37 for 316 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) into a passer…and, well, that’s not his thing really.

The last two games they’ve elevated his passing attempts and his passing yards have gone up, but his passing TDs stay the same (1 per game) and his comp. pct. tumbles. He started out rolling 65%+ completion percentage average the first two games but has been 55%+ average the last two games. He’s also gone from 14.0 rush attempts per game Weeks 1-2 to 7.0 the last two games. Not what you want to see from Lamar for FF.

 -- I’m now worried about Courtland Sutton (3-47-0/8), for multiple reasons…

1) The passing game is falling down as they face better defenses. Really, Sutton has one good FF-game in 4 games this season. Sutton looks great/fine, but they can’t get him the ball.

2) What really struck me from this rewatch…the body language from Sutton is mounting frustration…like he knows he’s going to waste, and that it’s gonna cost him free agent money. Sutton is walking slowly to the huddle after the frustrating miss targets and non-targets mount. He’s saying a ton with his body right now…and he’s a team leader, so I think this Denver locker room is about to blow if the Broncos lose their next three games, which they very well might.

Sutton has played 21 games in the Vic Fangio era, over the past 3 seasons, and he has just three 100+ yard receiving games and just 6 TDs. They are taking shots with him/at him for scores…it’s just not connecting. It’s always jump balls that never land, like Mike Williams circa 2019-2020.

I am not a buyer or seller, I’m a hold hoping he pops a little and we can reassess our position.

Sutton = WR1 talent…WR2.5 activity and surroundings, unfortunately…and the WR2.5 side is winning out too much this season. I have more hope for him if Drew Lock is at QB.

 -- Speaking of Drew Lock (12-21 for 113 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT)…

I heard two different commentators recap this game by saying (paraphrasing): Well, Denver was gonna win this, but Teddy got hurt and then you got no shot with Drew Lock.

That’s a highlight watcher who has their mind made up already, giving us analysis. I am guilty of such things as well from time-to-time, which is why you gotta study the tape…all the tape…everyday…even in the offseason, as I do. Teddy played like total garbage here. You can blame it on the O-Line perhaps, but Teddy was downright awful -- he was completing 76%+ of his passes coming into this game…and completed 44% here. Drew Lock came in cold and faced some of the same pressure issues, but Lock is more talented…so, he threw some better passes under duress, but the pressure got to him too often as well.

I don’t like much of what I see from Denver, but if the Broncos have to go with Lock vs. PIT Week 5…the Vegas line will go from -1.0 PIT to like -3.0 PIT. I might be interested in betting against the grain here and going with Lock, because Lock looked good here when he had time…like his 2021 preseason work. He still makes mistakes and he’s not a leader, but that guy has Josh Allen ability, but hasn’t made the full Allen turn yet…and he may never, but he’s better than the analysts/fans think. He’s gotten better in each of his last three seasons…but has a way to go.

 -- Noah Fant (6-46-1/10) seems to be flowing with the strength of the opposition. The Ravens are getting gashed by TEs, and Fant had a nice game. When he faced the Jets the prior week, a top team against the TE…2 catches for 15 yards. Fant faces a top against the TE defense (Schobert) Week 5 against PIT…that’s why he’s down in our rankings.

 -- James Proche (5-74-0/6) came out of nowhere this week. Nice numbers for any Ravens WR in the Lamar era…especially by a perpetual backup. Was it a breakout? No. He was just ignored/left alone a couple times and made numbers. Devin Duvernay (3-31-0/6) is 10x the WR. And Rashod Bateman is going to return soon.

 -- Two rookie IDPs…

Odafe Oweh (1 tackles, 1.0 sack) got his first sack in a football game since 2019! Congrats. He’s doing solid enough work in the NFL for a rookie, but nothing much for IDP yet.

Caden Sterns (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) got all the numbers you see…in just 7 snaps played!! To put it in perspective, Odafe Oweh is considered a top pass rush prospect in football and has been rushing the passer every play for years and he has one sack in his last 22 months of always playing football (college and pro). Sterns is a safety who just doubled Oweh’s last 22 months’ worth of sacks in just 7 snaps in this one game.

Until Sterns is playing more, I can’t take him seriously for IDP…but I do love him so, as a football scout.

 -- I see Denver’s defense is good, but their lofty 2021 ratings/metrics so far are built on schedule. They haven’t faced a real elite QB yet this season…and they won’t until Week 9 at DAL.

I look at this sad Denver defense, and then I see the Cardinals and Chargers and Browns and Panthers have rebuilt their defenses in a year+ and become high end defenses in a blink…while Denver is still just OK/‘good’. It has me ‘out’ on thinking Vic Fangio is some defensive guru…or in thinking he is a good coach at all. He’s as good as gone this offseason.

I see more DST talent with Denver, but I see more execution with Baltimore’s defense. The Broncos ownership should fire Fangio and hire the real D-guru, Ravens D-C Don Martindale.

Snap Counts of Interest:

31 = Javonte

30 = M Gordon

53 = Watkins

45 = Mq Brown

33 = Duvernay

24 = Proche

45 = Latavius

20 = Le’Veon

06 = Devonta

R.C. Fischer

FFM

06 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Browns 14, Vikings 7

This was the definition of a hard fought, defensive battle win for the Browns. I was surprised that the Browns held the very good Vikings offense to just a TD…and it was on the opening drive…so a shutout the next 50+ minutes. I moved up this rewatch to take a deeper look at this Browns defense that ruled with 9 sacks over Chicago Week 3, and then this gem Week 4. My full FF-thoughts on this DST will be in the player notes below.

The Browns’ offensive is fading while the defense is rising, but overall they’re probably good enough to still win the division. A tough schedule ahead, but they will probably get to 9-10 wins. But 7-8 wins wouldn’t totally shock me either. The Browns have upside but also growing offensive flaws.

The Vikings defense is no slouch either – back-to-back games holding good teams (CLE and SEA) to under 20 points. The Vikings are (1-3) but really could be (4-0). They are the best (1-3) team in football…and we project them with 10 wins and a wild card…and a possible threat to Green Bay for the NFC North. The Vikings are one of the better teams in the NFL…they went toe-to-toe with CLE, ARI, CIN this season (a combined 10-2 collectively)…and whacked SEA. If Minnesota is as good as the Browns, and people think the Browns are a Super Bowl contender, then…

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let’s talk about the Cleveland-DST first…because they deserve it. That was one wicked defense I saw on this tape. Like…’wow’. Like ‘Holy S***’.

I’ve not seen that much pressure on a QB…since…Cleveland Week 3 sacking Justin Fields 9 times and hitting him 15 times. They hit Kirk Cousins 10 times here and only sacked him twice, but he was uncomfortable most every drop back…but Cousins is so damn good he fought through it like a trooper, but the Browns were just too much.

The three defenses that I’ve seen the past 2-3 weeks and I think they’re the most menacing in football (to my eyes): Arizona, L.A. Chargers and these Browns. The Panthers right there too. The Jets are pretty aggressive/emerging but don’t have the top-to-bottom talent of these other big names.

The Browns front group was pushing the Vikings O-Line back every time…and they batted down passes, chased Cousins from the pocket a lot, and hit him often. They only sacked him twice but lost 2-3 sacks to Cousins just smartly getting rid of the ball as he was in the grasp.

I saw the Browns slumber through their Week 2 games with the Texans and thought the Browns were just mediocre on defense, so when they smoked the Bears with 9 sacks Week 3…I thought it was a Bears problem, and it was -- but the Browns defense was exasperating the problem exponentially. Here, against a top 10 NFL offense/QB…they made the Vikings’ lives miserable.

This is a DST built for Fantasy – high pressure = sacks, strip sacks, and hurried throws/picks.

The Browns are #7 in PPG allowed in the NFL (and they faced MIN and KC).

The Browns are #2 in sacks on the season. Top 5 in pressures per pass attempt.

They have allowed net passing yards of 1 (to CHI) and 190 (to MIN) the past two weeks.

I would say the Browns have a great front four…and a good/OK back seven. The DB group is potentially very good, but still coming together as a unit with offseason changes and high draft pick players returning from missed-the-season injury last year.

The Browns face the Chargers and Cardinals the next two weeks…arguably two of the best 3 teams in football. The schedule has been brutal. Some will FF-drop them for fear of the LAC game…then more will drop them in Week 6 v. ARI. Be on the lookout for a pickup in and around that, potentially…

After Week 7, the Browns face: Teddy-Ben-Burrow-Mac-Goff-Lamar before a Week 13 bye. Six quality matchups, many with some of the weakest O-Lines in football.

 -- Also, consider… The Vikings defense is no slouch either. It’s coming into its own as well. They were toe-to-toe, almost, with the Browns defense. The Vikings-DST is #4 in sacks in the NFL right now. They are the 3rd-best defense on 3rd-downs in the NFL.

This is an on-the-come defense…just not quite the pass rush Cleveland has, and a worse back 7 because their secondary is still dicey…but improving, quickly.

Any time this MIN defense is at home, with that crowd noise, it’s an extra boost. Week 5 hosting DET…it works for FF. Week 6 at CAR, if CMC is out, could be nice. Then the schedule gets nasty for a while starting with their Week 7 bye.

Just take note – if your QB/WR is facing MIN…it’s not a certain boost. This is not the 2020 Vikings on defense.

 -- Dalvin Cook (9-34-0, 2-10-0/6) got banged up again in-game, left for a while and then returned. He will likely be questionable and may sit out or sit a lot if they manhandle DET this week. It would be a good time, if he’s questionable all week, to explore cheap trades for him from the desperate – because he looks fantastic otherwise.

Because they might sit him this week because of an ‘easy’ win vs. DET…Alexander Mattison (10-20-0) is worth holding onto as a shock/surprise solo starter v. DET this week.

 -- I cannot tell you how awful Odell Beckham (2-27-0/7) is working with Baker Mayfield (15-33 for 155 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT)…it drags Baker down. He’s always trying to force it to OBJ and it's almost always covered or OBJ goes the wrong way on the timing throw.

Speaking of Baker, his numbers are going in the toilet since OBJ got back…and, shockingly, the Browns are the 5th-most sacked team in the league right now – this supposedly great O-Line isn’t great at pass blocking (but is at run blocking).

 -- Three notes on MIN receivers…

1) Justin Jefferson (6-84-1/7) abused a very good Denzel Ward in this game. Jefferson is like fine art watching him work. I’ve learned to appreciate it as I’ve gotten older (from last year).

2) K.J. Osborn (3-26-0/7) is really good…but there’s not enough passes to go around for him. But note, he’s a really good, future starting WR. He’s going to matter for FF someday. He’s like a junior Justin Jefferson.

3) Tyler Conklin (4-18-0/6) had a down game off his nice Week 3, so now everyone will turn on Conklin. Just note that Cleveland is one of the five best defenses against the TE this season, and that’s including facing Travis Kelce Week 1. Don’t write off Conklin too quickly. Not saying he’s a star TE1 ahead, but he’s not as dead as you might think.

Snap Counts of Interest:

33 = D Cook

23 = Mattison

66 = Thielen

59 = Jefferson

42 = Osborn

56 = Hooper

52 = Njoku

29 = Bryant

41 = Hunt

37 = Chubb

Ross Jacobs

FFM

06 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Seahawks 28, 49'ers 21

I started watching this game thinking I was about to see a pretty good Seattle team slowly but surely control the game against a weaker SF squad. I was not prepared to see the 49'ers look like the better team for a good chunk of this game.

SF was dominating the early portion of this game. I'm not sure the Seahawks broke 20 yards of offense until the first half was nearly over. Not only was the SF defensive line dominating them up front, but Russ and his WR's couldn't take advantage of a theoretically poor 49'er secondary. It wasn't a fluke either. It was pure domination.

The spark for Seattle was, shockingly, Alex Collins. He started a series with a couple big runs and a nice catch downfield and that got Seattle to the end zone where Metcalf would tie the game. In the second half Wilson put together a nice drive and took the lead on a scramble for a TD. The game was 14-7 Seattle at that point, but SF fumbled the ensuing kickoff and Seattle got the ball at the 49'er 15 yard line. Of course they punched in the easy TD and it proved to be too large a gap for Trey Lance to overcome.

Lance would pull the game back to 21-13, but the Seahawks answered again to make it 28-13 and the game looked over for good. Once again though Lance drove the 49'ers down the field and scored to make it a 7 point game. SF tried an onside kick with about a 1:30 left but didn't recover.

I don't think there's a massive gap between these two teams, but SF definitely played better for most of the game, and it was only the fumbled kickoff that gave Seattle an easy TD for the lead. Seattle has now beaten an injured Colts team, lost to the not great Titans, gotten spanked by the Vikings, and gotten lucky to beat the 49'ers. They aren't a great team. They are an average team that's 19th in yards per game, 10th in scoring with some lucky turnovers going their way (and playing some bad defenses), dead last in defensive yards per game, and 19th in defensive scoring per game. I'm sure Wilson will find some way to get them to 9 or 10 wins like he always does, but this looks like the weakest Seattle unit I've seen in a few years.

San Francisco has a slightly better offense, top 12 or so despite Garoppolo's limitations, and their defense is average to slightly below average. They gave up a flurry of late points to the Lions after crushing them most of the game, held the Eagles down (with some luck), got smoked by the Packers, and really did a good job against the Seahawks. It's not a horrible unit. They'll finish around .500 or so, not bad but not really a playoff contender either.

Fantasy Notes

--Of course you know I'm starting with Trey Lance (9-18 for 157 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 7-41-0). Let me begin with a humble statement: I was right all along. 

In the entire first half Garoppolo scored once. In the 2nd half, Lance scored twice. Yes, one was a busted play of sorts, but those types of things happen because defenses are worried about his running ability. Lance should have been starting from day 1. If he had, the 49'ers might not have lost this game. Let me explain...

When Lance started the 2nd half for an injured Garoppolo, he came out and was very shaky for a couple of series, lots of his usual inaccurate passes, not seeing defenders, etc. But as the game went on he started to settle down, and you could see with every passing snap that he was improving. I've never seen anything like it. RC watched some of it live and saw the same thing.

Lance was progressing rapidly from snap to snap and by the end of the game he was starting to look like the guy I've been howling about for months. Still not the greatest passer, but a big, strong, fast and mobile guy that can break tackles, extend plays, and make something out of nothing. We finally saw him run in an explosive fashion, not just your typical mobile QB stuff, but running with speed and agility. He's definitely got that and RC and I were beginning to get worried that I had overestimated his running ability. No such worry now. I should also point out that, while there was definitely a package of plays ready for Lance, this wasn't him working with a dedicated game plan built around him. Once he becomes the full-time starter the offense should be nicely tailored to his strengths.

The stupid part is that Kyle Shanahan has been holding back Lance for whatever reason, and Lance was still jittery as a result. If he had been getting snaps since week 1, all that would have been out of his system and who knows where he might have progressed to already. If he's improving exponentially with every snap (this is what I meant by his ceiling is insanely high due to his lack of reps in college), then it's a crime to hold him back and not give him those reps. You could have started him against the garbage Lions and Eagles and been fine, but no, Kyle is too smart for that, and now he's dug himself a hole. And now to top it off, he's talking about starting Garoppolo again next week if he's not hurt.

What kind of idiot watches his veteran struggle to score while his hotshot rookie is putting points up every time he comes in the game and decides to stick with the veteran? This is mismanagement at its worst, and I think it's going to cost Kyle his job.

I still say we can expect low QB1 numbers from Lance once he's the starter. He's going to be an erratic passer for sure, but his legs are going to do the damage, and he's still capable of making some ridiculous plays in the passing game. That's been the argument for him all along. Even if he's a lesser passer, his legs make him more dangerous all-around than Jimmy. He opens up the offense by forcing the defense to account for him as a runner and that helps everyone. The offense is better with Lance in, mistakes and all. It's just a matter of time, if not this week then soon...

Actually, I hope it's not this week as the 49'ers have to face the Arizona defense, and that is not where I want Lance taking his first starting action. If he does it could be a pick 6 fest for the Arizona defense.

--Further proving my point about Lance elevating the entire offense, how much better did Trey Sermon (19-89-0) look in the 2nd half? It's not magic. Running QB's are good for the ypc of RB's. It gives them more room to run because now the LB's can't vacate their lanes and crash down on the line. We've seen this time and time again. Just look at the numbers for the Seattle RB's before and after Russell Wilson or any of the guys in Baltimore. Whoever is at RB each week is going to benefit from having Lance in. Of course he will steal a few goalline TD's, but that's the price you pay.

Sermon took about the same number of snaps as he did last week, but this week they trusted him to carry the ball much more often and he looked decent but still not amazing. I thought he was running more decisively than we had seen so far. I don't think he's seized the job and next week Elijah Mitchell could be back though and render this backfield a mess once again.

--Deebo Samuel (8-156-2) is still the only receiver you want from this team, but like RC talked about, I'd be looking to trade up with him if possible. Try and turn him into Cooper Kupp specifically. Samuel has a ton of value right now, and while he'll continue to be a good player, there are some questions about this offense moving forward. Also, Samuel has been good no doubt, but he's also benefiting from two fluky 75 yard TD's in the first 4 weeks. That isn't likely to continue. Don't dump him but try to sell him high into something even better. Again Kupp is the best option because people still don't fully trust him.

--I've already pointed out how disappointing George Kittle (4-40-0/11) has been for fantasy for quite some time and he repeated that output again here. He did see a total of 11 targets though and most of those came from Lance in the second half. Lance starting could be very good for Kittle because even though they might connect at a lower rate, defenses won't be able to key on Kittle and Lance has the arm to hit him further downfield. The more I think about it the more I'm opening up to the idea that Kittle might really take off with Lance as the starter. Something to think about. If we don't jump on it now though we'll miss our chance as Kittle still has a ton of name value with most people in fantasy.

--I said I didn't like this Seattle passing game the very first week and here you go. Lighting up a very weak Tennessee secondary with low volume doesn't automatically mean you're setting the world on fire. Until they prove they'll throw it more I don't want any part of trying to guess what week Tyler Lockett (4-24-0/5) and DK Metcalf (4-65-1/8) catch a TD.

Another thing I talked about before, that is becoming more and more obvious...Metcalf is the clear leader between him and Lockett. It's no longer a dynamic duo per se. Lockett is still a great player and will get some good numbers, but Wilson is looking first for DK for good reason. He's really developing into a very good all-around receiver to go along with his phenomenal athleticism. If I knew they were going to start airing it out (and that DK was healthy) I'd be a big buyer. Metcalf has as much potential as anybody in the league but is being held back by this pedestrian passing game.

Speaking of Metcalf's injury, we still haven't gotten any details on it. Based on what we knew this past weekend there was reason to believe it might have been either turf toe or a Lisfranc injury. Since he played and was seemingly fine there's almost no way it's a Lisfranc. That's great news. It does mean that turf toe is the most likely culprit, and while that's not devastating news, it is something that should be monitored closely as it can easily turn into a worse injury or drag a player down for weeks.

--The thing that's been dragging the Seattle offense down most is their utter insistence on running everything through Chris Carson (13-30-0, 1-1-0/1) despite the fact that he's just an average back. In this game it was plain as day that nothing good was coming from slamming Carson up the middle every play, and Seattle shockingly started getting Alex Collins (10-44-1, 2-34-0/2) more involved which provided the spark the Seahawks needed to get going.

Collins looked much better than Carson, and RC was all over Collins all the way back in the pre-season. I don't know what's gotten into him, but he looks slimmed down and much quicker but still running decisively and with his usual power. So...do we have a split on our hands? I doubt it. Pete Carroll is too stubborn and committed to Carson to suddenly put him in a rotation with Collins. I expect them to go back to business as usual next week. But if Carson continues to struggle this might eventually turn into something closer to a split. It definitely should not just be written off as something that will never happen again. There is danger to Carson's position now, even if it isn't right on his doorstep just yet.

IDP Notes

--Azeez Al-Shaair (10 tackles) did it again. He's put up 10 tackles each of the two games since Dre Greenlaw got hurt. I don't see any reason why that should stop either. He just always seems to get at least a piece of every other tackle.

--Yet another player I've been talking about since pre-season is Seattle safety Quandre Diggs (7 tackles, 2 pd). He's averaging 7.75 tackles per game this year and is really forming a nice duo with Jamaal Adams. Adams gets all the headlines, but I think Diggs is the more sound player. It was Adams that allowed the busted coverage to Deebo for a TD.

Snap Counts of Interest

25 = Chris Carson

22 = Alex Collins

68 = Deebo Samuel

51 = Brandon Aiyuk

39 = Mohamed Sanu

39 = Trey Sermon

Ross Jacobs

FFM

05 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Colts 27, Dolphins 17 

You'd think a game with 44 total points would be more exciting. This wasn't. It was a completely lifeless game between two teams that are hanging on for dear life.

The Colts are the better team for sure, but they got handed an awful lot of gifts by the Dolphins. Multiple short fields off turnovers, kicks going out of bounds, penalties giving them first downs...they wouldn't have scored 27 on this Miami defense most weeks.

Now the Colts do have some hope because they are missing multiple offensive linemen to injury but should get them back at some point. If they can get the line healthy to protect Wentz they might actually have a solid team in the 9-10 win range. I'm honestly not sure they will get there though.

The top 10 defense the Colts fielded last year has taken a step back. They aren't bad exactly, but they definitely aren't as menacing up front either. Despite spending their early picks in the draft on pass rushers, they still don't have one.

As for the Dolphins, well, you know the issues there. The defense is still pretty good and trying to keep this team in games, but the offense is so dreadful that they are constantly being put on short fields that make it really difficult to stop the opposing offense. Their offensive line is the weakest link, but Brissett isn't helping matters much. I thought he would play short, safe football like he always has in the past, but he's acting like he's trying to make plays to take the job from Tua which is never going to happen. Consequently he's turning the ball over more than usual, which is the one bad thing Tua doesn't do at least. I can't believe I'm saying this, but once Tua comes back I think this team is a little better if only because he doesn't make too many dumb mistakes and put his team in bad positions. Then they can hope the defense bails them out with some turnovers. It's possible they'll get to 6-7-8 wins by the end of the year.

Fantasy Notes

--If you have Jonathan Taylor (16-103-1, 3-11-0/3) now is the time to think about flipping him. The offensive line is corrupted right now and may not be healthy all year despite the hope, he's not getting the heavy workloads you'd like to see, and the schedule isn't doing him a ton of favors either. There's a couple of matchups with the Texans coming up, but also dates with good run defenses like the Ravens, Jets, Titans, and Bucs who are all going to key in on Taylor because they aren't afraid of Wentz.

Miami has one of the weakest run defenses in the league and even then a good chunk of Taylor's yards came on one jet sweep that Miami wasn't ready for. Taylor isn't the problem really. He looks as strong and athletic as ever. There's just a lot of other factors that are going to hold him back this year. I'm not sure you can get much for him as everyone is still aware of the slow start, but maybe a 2-for-2 trade will get it done for Mixon or something similar. Of course you may just have to hold and pray for the line to get back.

RC NOTE: I’m a hold on JT. I’ll wait for the O-Line to get back + Wentz to get healthier + Marlon Mack to be gone. I’m pro-JT...with mild confidence. 

--One guy you do not have to worry about and should be trying to trade for right now is Michael Pittman (6-59-0/8). I noted a few weeks ago that he looked fantastic, like a true #1 receiver but that he wasn't getting the targets/treatment of a #1. Well now he's getting it. There is no doubt anymore and not much is going to stop this connection. He's a bona fide WR1.5 still available as a WR2+. Don't sell out for him, but try to work a deal to get him on the cheap after this quiet game. He won't be available for discount prices much longer.

--Carson Wentz (24-32 for 228, 2 TD/0 INT, 5-8-0) is playing surprisingly well all things considered. It looks like he's lost a little bit of arm strength as he floated a few passes here, something I haven't seen him do much in the past, but otherwise he's playing smart, accurate football and not taking as many stupid risks. If this offensive line gets healthy Wentz might suddenly become a nice QB2 option.

--So let me get this straight...last week Marlon Mack (10-22-0, 1-1-0/2) requests a trade because he's the odd man out of the Taylor/Hines duo, and now he's taking 10 carries while Hines is barely used? What in the world? I do not understand how this coaching staff decides on RB usage, and I don't think I ever will. I wouldn't trust this at all. Next week it will probably be Hines getting 12 targets and catching 8 passes for 90 yards and a TD or something.

--I'm not really interested in much else from this Colts offense and that includes Mo Alie-Cox (3-42-2/5). I didn't see any real connection or intent to get him the ball here. He's just a big body Wentz could throw a jump ball to in the end-zone. Like most TE's he'll have moments of usefulness when he gets a TD, but you'll never know which weeks those are going to be.

--The biggest question about the Dolphins this week is what the heck happened to Myles Gaskin (2-3-0) and will it continue? Unfortunately, I don't have a great answer for that. It wasn't like Gaskin was sprinkled in throughout the game as a random option. He was in for a series by himself in the middle of the game and that was all. I can't find anything to suggest Gaskin is banged up or in the doghouse, so my best guess is this was simply a game plan issue and the coaching staff wanted a bigger back to lead against Indy. Then once they got down it became throw-to-catch-up time.

I expect that Gaskin will likely be back to his usual role next week for what that's worth. This is still a bad offensive line with a QB nobody is afraid of, and Gaskin isn't a great athlete anyways, so there's just not going to be room to work for now.

RC NOTE: I have no clue either, but Brian Flores is going to get fired soon and he is helping me with my top bet of the Miami ‘under’ win total this season, so keep it going Brian! I don’t know if Gaskin will be the guy next week...or Brown...Gerrid Doaks...or the corpse of LeGarrette Blount, or any other ex-Patriot RB he can get his hands on. They all suck in Miami, so ‘who cares’?

--On the back of that discussion I don't think you can suddenly trust Malcolm Brown (8-23-0, 1-4-0/1) either. All the same things still apply and I'm guessing he goes back to his normal workload (or at best a split with Gaskin) next week. It's just not worth anything unless he falls backwards into a TD, and you can't count on that with how bad the offense is.

--Is DeVante Parker (4-77-1/9) suddenly a viable option? Not really. He was barely used until the last 5 minutes of the game and Brissett suddenly realized he could just throw it in Parker's direction and hope he came down with it. Parker still refuses to work the middle of the field and so he's left with only sideline passes in 1-on-1 coverage. He'll make an amazing one handed grab and then drop an easy pass right in his hands the very next play. There are better options available.

--If I was going to have a receiver from this team I'd still take Jaylen Waddle (3-33-0/4). Unlike his superfast college teammate Ruggs, Waddle is actually showing some actual wide receiver skills. There might be some hope for him in a year or two with a better QB. If Watson ends up here Waddle would be the shock WR1-1.5 I bet.

--I don't care how much RC and Katz bash Mike Gesicki (5-57-1/6), he's a decent player. He's finally gotten over the softness he showed early in his career and is able to make tough grabs over the middle and hang on even after taking a big shot. What I said about Waddle applies to him too. If Miami lands a good QB at some point Gesicki could find himself being quite fantasy relevant. He's a decent option right now if you're desperate, kind of in that Dalton Schultz range.

RC NOTE: I am pro-Gesicki with Ryan Fitzpatrick...and Jacoby Brissett, not as keen on him with Tua. And we’re getting Tua back soon...

‍

Snap Counts of Interest

35 = Malcolm Brown

12 = Myles Gaskin

5 = Salvon Ahmed

36 = Jonathan Taylor

22 = Marlon Mack

22 = Nyheim Hines

‍

R.C. Fischer

FFM

05 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Cowboys 36, Panthers 28

After rewatching this game, if I say that I think Dallas might be one of the few teams to consider as the best team in the NFC – you would not be surprised. But when I say that Carolina isn’t far behind the pack as an NFC top team…that might get a raised eyebrow.

Let me begin with Carolina: That’s a top 5 or so defense in the NFL, maybe top 3 and…gulp…Sam Darnold is playing pretty good football. He’s not as good as the analysts think but he’s not as bad (in 2021) as I had already banished him to be. I always see him as an ‘F’. THEY think he’s a B+. He’s probably in the C-/D+ range…but that’s not an ‘F’. Big difference for Carolina in NFL terms.

The reason Carolina took the early lead (14-13 at the half) was because Darnold was playing solid football. The reason Carolina gave up 20 points in the 3rd-quarter and started getting blown out was because of Darnold…when the pressure is on, Darnold starts misfiring and is prone to turnover…and that’s what happened here. But then it was Darnold helping lead a 4th-quarter charge to try and get back into it.

Darnold is making progress, but he’s never going to be as good as they all thought. He’s about a step ahead of Taylor Heinicke’s style/ability. But that’s better than Darnold has been before. This is a good-to-great coaching staff with a getting servable O-Line…and a top-notch defense. It’s a good team that was minus their best offensive player and came out of the gates taking control of the game over Dallas (by a little bit).

Dallas had to play some ball to stay with Carolina at first, and then to put the hammer down in the 3rd-quarter. And then got a bit sloppy/lazy, thinking they had it in the bag up 22 just into the 4th-quarter…and Carolina slipped back in and cut it to a one score game…but then Dallas put Carolina to sleep and ran out the clock.

It was two ‘wins’ here…two ‘tells’ to me.

Dallas won the game and won over my heart some more -- further convincing me they are one of the top 3 teams in the NFC…if not the best team in the NFC…and in the running for the best team in football with a little more development. O-C Kellen Moore is calling (arguably) the best offensive games in the league, and D-C Dan Quinn has changed this defense – a collection of young talent that is only going to get better is finally living up to the collection of talent they had. Obviously, they have a Super Bowl caliber QB.

Carolina got a ‘win’ here as well… I thought they’d get smashed when the schedule turned difficult, starting Week 4, especially without CMC. But they held their own. They played just as tough as Dallas…but the Cowboys are just better because they are better at QB. Carolina ‘won’ me over – they have turned a corner. They are a playoff level team. They can hang with Sam Darnold. They aren’t going to be elite with Darnold, but they can win some games with Darnold and all the other quality surroundings…especially a defense that can possibly be a best-in-football type unit.

Dallas taking punches early and then stepping on Carolina to take control of the game – it was a real picture of good-to-great football by a well-coached/executing team. Credit Mike McCarthy, even if he’s just riding the O-C and D-C coattails.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Sam Darnold (26-39 for 301 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs, 6-35-2) is putting up nice FF numbers. I mocked them and ignored them as ‘matchup based’ fluff the first 3 weeks, but he’s taking a bit of a turn to not-incompetent. I still think he’s one of the 5 or so worst QBs in the NFL, but no longer do I feel he’s the possible worst.

And this cat is running too… Five rushing TDs so far this season? I mean, that can be just dumb luck…and it is to some degree, so many TDs in such a short span – but I was surprised just how quick Darnold is. The classic ‘sneaky quick’. He looks leaned up and unafraid to run.  

Kudos to Sam.

Is he viable for FF? I guess, kinda…if he’s going to run for a TD and throw for 300+ yards every game (has three 300+ passing games in a row). No. But I do think he’ll fall back to earth some, as defenses get used to him in his new environment.

If no rushing TDs…then no interest in Sam unless it’s a perfect matchup and I’m desperate.

 -- As Darnold settles in, it's been clear D.J. Moore (8-113-2/12) is his main target…no one else is even close. Moore got two, let’s say ‘lucky’ TDs in the garbage-ish time comeback but Moore also almost had a TD the first scoring drive of the game.

I worry Darnold will tail off ahead in output…he almost has to. His numbers are ahead of his skills, improved as they may be. Teams are going to try and clamp down on Moore…it’s the way you have to play this passing game, so if the QB tails off and the coverage amps up…I don’t think Moore can sustain as a WR1, but I’m not radically against it like I would have been a few weeks ago.

Moore’s numbers jumped another notch when CMC went out…when he returns, we’ll see if DJM holds up at the high level. If you fear Darnold…the coverage…and CMC returning as pressure on DJM’s current output – this week is the time to sell high. Not dump at all costs, but make it pay off. Moore won’t become a WR3 all of a sudden, but I think he’s a #15-20 WR1.5-2.0 here more than a top 5 WR1. Don’t sell it cheap, if you do/try.

 -- OK, I’ve turned more positive on Darnold and Moore. My first time ever for both. I have been against them for FF for years -- Darnold on my CFM scouting, and Moore on the situation tied to Darnold or Cam). I want to go back to being cranky and celebrating calling players shortfalls against the mainstream notion. So, let’s discuss Chuba Hubbard (13-57-0)…

Dang it!! I mocked him this week too (and I was right to say he would not produce like everyone thought), but he actually played pretty well here. Definitely the best of the three RBs for Carolina. Hubbard was very quick and shifty with the ball. Best I’ve seen him look as a pro in his short stint to date.

I thought Royce Freeman (3-15-0) would show Chuba up with his experience, but Royce looks like he got shot with a tranquilizer dart…he was slow and plodding. Definitely not the Freeman I remember, or thought would outshine Hubbard. My bad. Royce looks cooked for the NFL. No more ‘deep sleeper’ discussion on him until further notice.

Rodney Smith (5-48-0/5) played the 3rd-down back role, and he was in the game quickly. Note to self/everyone…when CMC is out, Carolina’s plan is Hubbard as the lead, and Smith as the 3rd-down back and hurry up offense guy. Meaning they both have little value for FF splitting touches as mediocre talents. Neither is the next CMC.

 -- OK, the 3 first notes were about me being wrong about 2021 stuff. I need to get a ‘win’ myself and get back on track. So, Dalton Schultz (6-58-1/8) is now a solid TE1. Dammit…foiled again!!

In the preseason, I thought Blake Jarwin (1-18-0/1) would be the lead in a split with Schultz. Instead, Schultz is the lead in a split and Schultz is pulling away as the main target for Dak…

The last three weeks of targeting for Dallas:

17 = Schultz

17 = Lamb

12 = Amari

Schultz has more catches and rec. TDs than any Cowboy the past 3 weeks…and nearly the most rec. yards.

Can it keep up?

I don’t see why not…three of his first 4 games, Schultz has 6 catches in a game…it’s consistently happening. He also had his hands on a TD early but it got knocked away by the DB. I’m a believer until he shows me that I shouldn’t be. Fading off from here wouldn’t shock me, but I’ll ride the ride ‘til it’s over.

 -- One of the mild concerns for Schultz (and all the receivers) is Dak Prescott (14-22 for 188 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT, 4-35-0) is not throwing a lot at all…doesn’t need to. The offense is efficiently running and sometimes passing over opponents. 27-26-22 for pass attempts the last 3 games for Dak. 237-238-188 passing yards in those three games. Not a QB1.

Dak’s drop in passing needs is going to hurt Amari and CeeDee’s FF-upside. And I don’t know why Dallas would switch off it…they are winning by controlling the ground and smart passing game.

Three out of 4 weeks/cards dealt so far this season and Dak has been way down in passing volume, and taken Amari/Lamb with him…while Schultz is the winner/rising amidst it all. That’s the trend.

But good news – Dak looked very good as a runner here. 35 yards rushing this game and he looked strong and quick.

 -- Two minor Carolina offensive notes…

1) Ross Jacobs was right a couple of weeks ago: Brandon Zylstra (2-63-0/2) is better than Terrace Marshall (1-2-0/3). It doesn’t matter much for FF, because this is the D.J. Moore show…but so many are seeing Marshall as some great sleeper. Ahh, no. Not in 2021…not yet for sure…no signs of it.

2) Dan Arnold traded away sprung Ian Thomas (3-15-0/3) to more snaps/touches had ditto Tommy Tremble (0-0-0/1) but there’s nothing here for FF. Tremble someday will be FF-sneaky but no signs yet.

 -- This Carolina defense…so good. Getting C.J. Henderson (3 tackles) from JAX was huge. But I forgot A.J. Bouye (3 tackles) is back as well. Henderson-Bouye-Donte Jackson (1 tackle, 1 PD) is one of the best CB trios in football.

Carolina’s front seven is really good/potentially great too. This defense has the makings of not only a top 3-5…but THE BEST in football. It’s a better version of the Saints, and I’m not disrespecting the Saints-D.

The schedule ahead is choppy for CAR-DST but that’s true of most every DST. Weeks 7-12 could be hot: NYG-ATL-NE-ARI-WSH-MIA (except ARI).

 -- Theis Dallas defense is not joke either. A few more flaws than Carolina (like their CBs aside from Trevon Diggs) but when they get Demarcus Lawrence back in the 2nd-half of the season…this is a tough defense. If they can find another upgrade at corner as well, it could be a top 10 NFL defense.

Demarcus Lawrence could be back for the nice schedule pop late in the season for Dallas: Weeks 13-16 with NO-WSH-NYG-WSH.

Snap Counts of Interest:

49 = Lamb

48 = Schultz

35 = C Wilson

33 = Jarwin

29 = Amari

46 = Zeke

18 = Pollard

44 = Ian T.

27 = Tremble

50 = Terrace Marshall

13 = Zylstra

33 = Hubbard

26 = Rodney Smith

12 = Royce Freeman

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

04 October 2021

Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

04 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Bengals 24, Jaguars 21

Well, the Jaguars tried. They were up 14-0 at one point after taking it to Cincy early, but the Bengals fought back to tie the game up. At that point the Jaguars were reeling, but they buckled down and scored again to take a 7 point lead. It was not to be though. Cincy responded again with the tying TD and then kicked the last second field goal for the win.

It was a gutsy win for the finally respectable Bengals and a devastating loss for the downtrodden Jaguars.

Cincinnati isn't exactly a good team yet, but they are moving in the right direction. The offense is starting to put some drives together and the defense is no longer a complete pushover like they have been for so many years. I doubt they crack .500 this year, but a 7-10 or 8-9 season might be within reach. If they can continue building around Burrow during the 2022 off-season, this team might actually be in the playoff hunt next year. They still need more offensive linemen and more help on defense, but there's finally some hope for the Bungles.

Poor Jacksonville. They finally showed some spine here and nearly pulled off the win, but ran out of gas at the finish line. Perhaps if they still had Gardner Minshew, Joe Schobert, and CJ Henderson they could have gotten it done. Unfortunately the mastermind known as Urban Meyer rid his team of arguably their three best players, and this is the consequence. It doesn't matter how much heart and effort your team puts in if they aren't also talented. Maybe Meyer can gut his way through a terrible year and start the rebuild next year, but this has been an inauspicious start to his NFL career. Jacksonville is clearly headed for a bad year. If they get to 4 or 5 wins it's going to be a minor miracle. This just isn't a good team on either side of the ball.

It doesn't help matters that Meyer is once again embroiled in controversy after he was allegedly spotted at a restaurant he owns in Ohio with a younger woman that was not his wife. It's just the latest in a string of missteps for Meyer who can't seem to get out of his own way. We'll see if he survives this latest drama, but it's not looking good for him so far.

Fantasy Notes

--Joe Burrow (25-32 for 348, 2 TD/0 INT, 3-4-0) put up a nice stat line here, but something still seems off with him. I can't put my finger on it. Last year you could see in an instant, even with much worse surroundings, that Burrow was talented. He just had this assassin feel where he could carve up a defense with perfect pass after perfect pass. This year it's missing. I don't know if it's his knee, or in his head, or what, but I'm absolutely convinced he's not himself right now. Will we ever get the old Burrow back? Maybe. I don't know. I hope so. But right now he's not in the same league as his fellow 2020 1st rounder Justin Herbert.

--Another year of a billion touches for Joe Mixon (16-67-1, 1-0-0/2) with not much to show for it. Mixon is incredibly talented for sure and he dominates the backfield, but none of that matters if there's nowhere to run. If you have him you just have to hang in there and hope things open up at some point. I don't see why they would however. I'll say it again, they should have drafted Penei Sewell over...

--Ja'Marr Chase (6-77-0/9). I still don't see it. He catches 4 random TD's his first three games and most analysts fall all over themselves proclaiming his greatness. The announcers did it again here, waxing poetic as he caught basic slant passes against a prevent defense, acting like he's the best rookie receiver they've ever seen even as he gets completely shown up by his much less heralded teammate Tyler Boyd (9-118-0/11), who the team didn't waste a top 5 pick on.

Chase isn't special. Rondale Moore is a thousand times the weapon that Chase is, but the media has already decided Chase is the greatest so they're going to jam it down our throats for the next 10 years despite all the evidence to the contrary. Six catches for 77 yards against one of the worst secondaries in football isn't impressive. Chase is the 3rd best receiver, at best, on his own team, and the only reason he got 9 targets here is because Tee Higgins was out for the game.

You can probably continue to use him decently enough for fantasy because his buddy Burrow is going to force him the ball, but I wouldn't expect to keep getting TD's at the rate he has been. There's just nothing flashing here so far. Chase is a decent receiver in a decent offense, and he's not even the overwhelming top option, just another good one among many. If you have him I would trade him hot right now while everyone else thinks he's some great WR1. The fun times likely aren't going to last.

--I already mentioned Tyler Boyd and how good he is. If you've been with RC for a while you already know this. Boyd is a better receiver than Chase for sure, and yet he'll get absolutely no credit for his performance here and 100/100 analysts not with FFM will tell you Chase is the better player. Unfortunately, while Boyd should be getting this treatment every week, you can't count on it. Boyd will likely remain a random WR2-3 once Higgins comes back.

--I guess CJ Uzomah (5-95-2/6) is the newest flavor-of-the-week TE that everyone will chase on waivers. Someone will start him and he'll put up 3-26-0 next week and be right back on waivers. There's nothing popping with him. It was just one of those random games guys sometimes get. He's a decent enough player, but he's the 5th option on this team.

--Trevor Lawrence (17-24 for 204, 0 TD/0 INT, 8-36-1) is getting better by the week. That doesn't mean run out and grab him off waivers, but just something to keep in mind. He's still very limited and doesn't work well down the field. His offensive line protection is allowing him time to scan the field and make smart throws though. If the protection ever breaks down he'll be back to turning it over 3-4 times a game.

--Hope you bought low on James Robinson (17-78-2, 1-(-2)-0/2) last week like RC advised. The door has slammed shut now. Robinson is the for sure lead back here over Hyde and the best option this offense has for moving the ball. He looks like a back end RB1 the rest of the schedule.

--Laviska Shenault (6-99-0/7) was the WR winner of the week here. He didn't do anything particularly special. He's still mostly a bubble screen guy but got a few shots down the field that he normally doesn't. Maybe the Jags try to work that in more, but honestly Shenault looked uncomfortable working down the field as a real WR. There's a reason he's the screens and drags guy.

--DJ Chark went down on the 3rd play of the game and his season is likely over with an ankle fracture.

The receiver I recommend trying to grab in the wake of the Chark injury is Marvin Jones (3-24-0/3). He's always been the preferred option for Lawrence, and now he should get all of the medium-deep work, especially now that the offensive line is allowing Lawrence more time to throw. Jones could be a really sneaky WR1.5 option ahead, so if you can get him as a throw-in on another deal I would do so. This is the spot to do it to as he just had a bad game and everyone is bashing the Jags for being 0-4.

--Dan Arnold (2-29-0/2) could be the other winner of the Chark injury. He was already getting involved in the offense here despite just arriving via trade, and he's clearly one of their best pass catchers. If you're dying at TE then Arnold is possibly the best chance at solid points available on most waiver wires right now. It's hard to expect it to pop right away considering he was rotating in with several other TE's, but it was his first week with the team, and the fact that he's already doing this after specifically being traded for suggests to me that they intend to get him more work. It's a speculation grab for sure, but again, if you're dying at TE it's a decent option.

--Tavon Austin (1-8-0/3) will replace Chark in 3 WR sets, but there's no point grabbing him for fantasy. Chark is a way better receiver and wasn't producing in this offense. What makes you think Austin will suddenly become fantasy relevant?

IDP Notes

--Logan Wilson (10 tackles, 1 sack) is having a fantastic year so far. His 4 games this year have produced, 7, 9, 14, and 10 tackles (10 tackles per game). If he keeps this up he's got a chance at leading the league.

--Rookie CB Tyson Campbell (8 tackles, 1 tfl) has 8 tackles each of the last two games as his snap counts have risen. He's allowing a lot of short catches, but that works for fantasy. He's an athlete but definitely still learning to play the position. Doesn't look as bad as I feared he might though. He's tough to beat deep due to his speed.

Snap Counts of Interest

52 = Marvin Jones

42 = Laviska Shenault

41 = Tavon Austin

24 = Chris Manhertz

18 = Dan Arnold

16 = Luke Farrell

11 = Jacob Hollister

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Broncos 26, Jets 0

Before the game you were probably thinking…the Broncos will likely play a controlled, safe, steady game and just methodically roll over the Jets – Denver just needed to get the lead and then just let the Jets flail away, and Denver occasionally capitalize on the gifts of good field position.

And what really happened in this game was… The Broncos played a controlled, safe, steady game and just methodically rolled over the Jets – Denver got the lead and then just let the Jets flail away, as Denver occasionally capitalized on the gifts of good field position.

This was never a game. The Jets have the worst offense in the NFL…the worst O-Line (along with PIT) …5 sacks, 9 QB hits…and no run game and the worst WR group in the NFL. They will win a game before too long because one of these times they will face a weak pass rush team and catch a break, and they have a top 10 NFL defense…but boy are they painful to watch on offense.

Denver jumps to (3-0) out of the gates, as we modeled could/would happen due to a fortuitous schedule. If they can just go (7-7) from here, they will win 10 games and make the playoffs. Their schedule ahead is more difficult (how could it not be?) but is not daunting until after a Week 11 BYE where in a 7-game span they play LAC and KC 4 times. They should get to 10 wins and sneak into the playoffs, but The Computer’s data is flashing warnings on Denver – that there are issues being hidden by a very easy schedule (NYG-JAX-NYJ…teams a combined 0-10 as I write this).

This game went about exactly as everyone thought, so not a ton of player notes.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Another week, another Zach Wilson (19-35 for 160 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) looks bad event. Because everything is about the QB and/or who won last week for the fans/analysts, so everyone in football is up in arms calling Wilson a bust. They want him to be a bust, so they are going to try to speak it into existence. It’s the cool thing to do among the media elites…and the football plebes (fans) take their cues from their overlord media.

The talking point for them this week is – Justin Fields’s Week 3 disaster is Matt Nagy’s fault…because THEY like Fields. He’s THEIR guy. So, it can’t be his fault. However, they don’t like Wilson…so this is all his fault.

The correct answer is – it’s neither QB’s fault. They’re thrown into the NFL arena with bad O-Lines and are under constant pressure to do anything.

When Fields was dying Week 3…he just took it. It’s a me-first guy worried about his stats ( my opinion). He won’t throw the ball under pressure. He’ll eat the sack.

Wilson doesn’t care…he’s trying to make plays on 3rd and long, or 4th-down. He’s trying to make something happen against all odss/pressures. He should just check down more to pad his numbers and get everyone off his back, and he did that more here but between RBs dropping the passes or the WRs dropping passes/not getting open with max pressure on al most every snap…what’s Wilson to do? Wilson had 100+ yards and a potential TD pass left on the field with drops.

Corey Davis (5-41-0/1) as your #1 WR…is the crime of the century. Oh, Zach don’t worry…we got Ryan Griffin (1-5-0/1) and Tyler Kroft (2-12-0/2) to help you as TE ‘weapons’.

Wilson’s two best WRs seem to be Braxton Berrios and Keelan Cole, so of course we get Corey Davis and Elijah Moore starting/see the most targets. His best WR is really Denzel Mims…not even active.

If Matt Nagy is killing Justin Fields…then what is Robert Saleh doing to Zach Wilson? How is Mims not even active? You mean hiring your best friend's brother to 1st-time coordinate an offense in the NFL isn’t working 3 weeks in against three top 10 NFL defenses (CAR-NE-DEN)…I’m shocked!

I’ll buy all your Zach Wilson in Dynasty for 2022 and beyond…for pennies on the dollar now. But my QB room is pretty salty already in most cases, so…not a great need. I’ll buy only to make you bleed for it…virtually give me it for nothing.

 -- Michael Carter (9-24-0, 2-5-0/3) is now just ‘the man’ for NYJ at RB, I guess. They went the whole summer gearing up for Tevin Coleman…and two weeks in that’s done and Carter is the man, for now.

Wilson tried to use him as a checkdown weapon some, but not enough. Wilson hit him for a sweet 10+ yard pass in stride that might have gone for 20-50+ yards, but Carter dropped it. Those things happen.

Main takeaway…it’s Carter’s backfield for now. That’s FF-worth something.

 -- The Broncos played very vanilla and just sat on the Jets…so no high-flying passing game numbers. Courtland Sutton (5-37-0/5) caught everything thrown his way, just low targets. He had a TD shot but fell 1-yard short. Ditto Tim Patrick (5-98-0/5).

 -- The typical backfield split again for Denver…

Melvin Gordon (18-60-1, 1-21-0/2) starts, but Javonte Williams (12-29-1, 3-33-0/4) was in quickly, and they shared touches. Gordon had a chance for a second TD halted by the Jets near the goal line. Javonte had two more TDs halted from short range.

That Jets defense never surrenders…they stopped so many plays from short distances in this game. This defense is terrific but no support from the offense to make them FF-viable.

Snap Counts of Interest:

58 = Fant

51 = Sutton

51 = Patrick

36 = Gordon

27 = Javonte

31 = Ty Johnson

23 = M Carter

51 = C Davis

42 = Berrios

27 = Cole

26 = E Moore