Add Intro: Now, more featuring my (RC) news and notes from the day's/week's discussions and/or studies...
Old Intro: Whenever I come across any football news reports/articles in my research or sent to me by FFMers that I think are interesting or back up/contradict/debate things I've discussed, I'd like to share them for extra/interesting reading material...and have them put into the archives so if you you are researching things about a player or situation, you can search it on the FFM site and it's part of the arsenal for your research.
It will be mostly reports on players/situations not as discussed nationally (but could be from national/big media sites), but are (hopefully) relevant to Dynasty/Fantasy/Handicapping purposes as we go...with the occasional item that I just thought was interesting in general about anything football related.
Here's what I have for this day (noting the players/situation discussed for future archive search purposes with a link to the article):
FFM News: Football News/Reports of Interest (6/22/23)
*2023 Draft Guide v1.0 has been posted*
-- Anthony Richardson 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Looking at FanDuel, I see Richardson sitting as the #4 option for OROY +900 (+600 DK)…and that looks attractive. Attractive because I think he’s a strong favorite for that award on his own, but it’s also the logical bet against Bijan Robinson to win it.
Obviously, Bijan is the favorite (+300). If he has a decent season, they’ll give it to him even if Richardson posts a (17-0) record and runs for more yards on the ground than Bijan. But if Bijan falters or gets hurt -- the door is wide open.
Bryce Young is (+450), as the mainstream #2 for the OROY. I would rather retire from football analysis than take that bet.
C.J. Stroud is also (+900), and he is a threat to the non-Bijan path…just not as threatening as ARich is.
The reason Richardson is not #2/with lesser odds is two-fold:
(1) There will not be an admission that Richardson (among others) is a better QB prospect than the anointed Bryce. So, the odds at this stage won’t reflect any weakness thinking on Bryce.
(2) Analysts, and thus the people are still worried Richardson won’t start the season…but they have no such concerns on Young-Stroud, which is reasonable…but also lucrative for us betting the AR way.
I’d bet Richardson is going to start Week 1 on…and if he doesn’t, he’ll take over by Week 2-3-4 and go on to be on display from there. And he’s just got more interest/magnetism in the media and with the public about him than Stroud or Young does.
You can tell via the Fantasy Football ADPs (redraft or DRD…Richardson continues to go off boards quicker than last week’s ADP/what the experts said last week) that there is a public excitement for Richardson…2nd most interest/intrigue only to Bijan among rookies, and it won’t take much at all for Richardson to surpass Bijan in the public. Fortunately, the NFL overlords are setting the odds -- and they love, and have to protect the thing they love, Bijan and Bryce…so they get the 1-2 odds, which creates a nice opportunity for us with Richardson, who should be the #2 on the odds and probably should be set at +400-500, but FanDuel has a gap to +900, whereas DK has +600 on it.
If you want in, move fast -- because when FFMers start hitting it the odds will change towards +600/the DK line, quickly.
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-- Malik Willis
You may have seen camp reports on how Malik Willis is ‘looking better’ in year two and is ‘ahead of Will Levis’ on the depth chart because of their play so far. And all that may be true, but I have some more detail on what (me and a source) thinks is going on with the Tennessee QB situation…and how it’s going to play out…and it’s sad really, but understandable…we all built the monster that is the NFL.
Obviously, in a 2nd-season for a QB like Willis -- they are going to improve, in general. He was a fairly well-regarded prospect in 2022…and he was jaw dropping at times in college. He doesn’t lack raw talent or character, so because he’s a worker -- he’s going to look better in this 2nd-year. This is no surprise.
However, what seems to be happening is -- when the Titans have a little fun at practice, with Willis, and change up the offense and let Willis ‘do his thing’, go oft-script…he is so much more comfortable, and gifted -- a cannon arm, Michael Vick feet, with a smaller running back’s body. But when the Titans run the normal, conservative offense in practice (which is most of the time) -- Willis looks human, not as good as Tannehill or Levis.
It’s very likely that in order for Willis to succeed in the NFL, he’s going to have to have an offense built for him…or really a preset offense deconstructed/abandoned and built anew for him. Only, what offensive coordinator or head coach is willing to do that? What O-C would even know what to do to try and help facilitate a radical, somewhat unscripted offense with a highly mobile QB?
I can answer that question -- there probably are none. A lot of coaches say they want the mobile QB but that’s when they’re frustrated with their current QB for not taking them to the Super Bowl last week/year…or after they watch their own team get beaten by a Lamar Jackson or Cam Newton escaping the pocket time and time again. Once these petulant coaches and/or GMs throw a temper tantrum for a new radical mobile QB, and then actually go get one -- then they soon after have buyer’s remorse because they don’t know what to do with them for play calling and don’t have the time/patient to groom it all the way through to the end…and 90%+ of the league is coaches by guys who want to run the ball with a power RB 70% of the time and throw a bunch of short/quick/safe passes the other 30% of the time. Malik Willis blows up that traditional/conservative plan. Lamar Jackson has started frustrating John Harbaugh. Doug Pederson didn’t want to play Jalen Hurts, for good reason…Hurts is an awful fit for Pederson’s style of offense. Think Kyle Shanahan is having any regrets about the Trey Lance trade these days?
What did Tennessee do after they saw Willis for a season? Went out and drafted ANOTHER quarterback…this time one that is the antithesis of Willis.
Malik Willis will only get a chance/succeed if Tennessee has no other options (due to injury to the main plan) and they HAVE to push Willis into the game/season, and that forces them to have to change the offense. The Titans drafted Willis and tried to make him a version of Ryan Tannehill with some college spread offense looks/alignments but still wanting the short, safe passing game. Willis’s gift is his running threat, his scramble and throw threat, his deep ball accuracy…he wasted being schooled ‘in the pocket’.
For Fantasy, for Malik Willis -- I think there is hope, there is something there with his skills and mind. But it’s impossible to predict when it will happen because it’s never going to happen on purpose. NFL coaches do not want improvising, razzle-dazzle QBs…they just don’t…no matter what they say in the media.
Which brings me to Will Levis -- he is the NFL head coach’s wet dream. Cannon arm and is schooled in being a game manager. Levis is like a beefier Trevor Lawrence right now (with more upside). Levis, like Lawrence, will throw all the screens and swings and crossers and 3-yard passes on 3rd-and-7, so as not to turn the ball over, and the completion percentage will look good and the turnover rate will be down -- but unless the O-Line is great and the weapons are superior after the catch…the offense can only progress so far, the QB can only produce so much for FF terms.
I believe Will Levis will be the Titans QB before Willis is…and that’s not based on a talent assessment, that’s based on what I think/know NFL head coaches want/will do. Levis is the perfect Titans/Mike Vrabel/Arthur Smith QB. The reason the Falcons aren’t making any QB moves is…they got their order-taking game manager QB. They’re good. Desmond Ridder is perfect for Art Smith.
I don’t know where Willis can go to get an NFL career, but I think it will happen…only it will happen on accident. There’s always a desperate situation that arises that gives talented QBs a chance at redemption. We just don’t know if the NFL will have sucked the life out of him/changed him too much to get the real/upside Willis or not when he does get that shot.
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