Game overview:
This was a bit of a sleepy game…at New England, gray skies, and drizzle in New England…which is ‘so New England’. The TV viewers were there for the C.J. Stroud debut. The home fans were there for a Patriots party, in general. With no Mac Jones/1st-team offense working this game, the fans were there for no other reason than to support the team/have a good time…in the rain.
It was a kinda low key game throughout. It was ‘Patriots football’ early on -- the best thing in the game being the Patriots defense and how much better the Patriots were at the line of scrimmage/how bad the Texans are on the O-Line. Houston ran 30 times for a paltry 3.0 yards per carry as a team. The Patriots clocked in at a 3.1 yards per carry rushing effort in total…but a horrible 1.9 yards per carry from the Pats’ RBs in their 19 carries.
It was a contest of two teams running up the middle for little yards with subdued, safe passing games in a wet environment. The Texans winning because their 2nd (Mills) and 3rd (Keenum) QBs are WAYYY better than what the Patriots countered with as their #2 (McSorley) and #3 (Cunningham) QBs in the game.
Houston’s worst stretch in this game was at the start of the game…with their #1 QB (Stroud) running the show, and that’s where we begin our player scouting notes…with the debut of C.J. Stroud…
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- It was an inauspicious start to C.J. Stroud’s (2-4 for 13 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 2-6-0). The online football troll mob, who live to critique and mock football things for sport-and-folly, have declared Stroud a bust from his two series of play with an interception…so, there’s that. Case closed.
What did I see?
Stroud barely was in the game, just two series/12 plays. His first series ended with a throw across the field, a medium range/10+ yards downfield throw, and it was going right to the intended receiver…but Jalen Mills read the whole thing and raced in front of the throw for an easy pick. Outside of that, I thought Stroud played fine. Nothing special, but mildly impressive how under control and not jittery he was for a rookie debut in the rain behind an overwhelmed O-Line.
This is what happens to these top guy/high profile QBs…these notorious college QBs who play their entire careers with pristine/all-star blocking…and they don’t have that (likely) in the NFL their first year because they are drafted high by (most likely) really bad NFL teams from the year prior. And also gone for these top QB picks is their all-star WR group and general college team overall dominance that usually saw them as 3+ TD favorites most every week…to now their new NFL team is a mess as they face top professionals on the other side of the ball. A radical change of environment for guys like Stroud (and Young).
There wasn’t enough here with Stroud to make any sweeping judgements, but football is back…and so are the online football mob and the know-nothing analysts, who will be critical of Stroud because it’s the easy thing to do. I’m not moved one way or the other by this debut…other than to be reminded -- this is a bad/low depth Houston team, and rookie Stroud is not likely to put them on his back to win games starting Week 1.
The online football mob will be critical of Stroud because it’s also a reverse way to praise their patron saint of football -- Bryce Young. The online mob and the football analyst class will defend Young to the end, and therefore has to tear down Stroud by comparison. It will be a running theme for the next 1-2 to 5 years. If Young throws that same type of pick, which I would almost guarantee he will on Saturday vs. the Jets -- then it will be excused as ‘hey, it’s a rookie debut…he has the debut jitters…it’s normal, Stroud’s pick was worse’.
…and the earth continues to spin on its axis for another football season.
-- Davis Mills (9-12 for 99 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) came in after Stroud and was much better, because at this stage of their careers…Mills is better, but I’d be shocked if the Texans didn’t start Stroud Week 1…they have to for his development for the future. 2023 doesn’t matter to Houston. They’re likely looking to 2024 already.
Mills was good, because he is good…one of the best backups to a starter in the league.
-- The Patriots countered with Bailey Zappe (12-14 for 79 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 1-6-0) as the starter, and I think he played the whole 1st-half. The takeaway here being: Zappe playing a whole half confirms that the Patriots are going to go down with the ship on Mac Jones, and Bill O’Brien is going to captain the submersion because they worked together at Alabama.
Zappe senses his plight…he played this game about as safe as one could. Zappe has to stay safe in his career and wait for a Mac Jones collapse, injury…or pass the time until Zappe hits free agency. I’ve seen Zappe play with much more fire than this, but in the rain with his fate as #2 QB secured, Zappe just went through the motions here. Nothing Zappe could do in the preseason is going to change his status.
Should Zappe start over Mac Jones, in my opinion? Hard to tell…Zappe is treated like a bland backup as Mac gets all the 1st-team work and media support. Zappe has a lot of roadblocks in his way. But the fanbase there is with the Zappe story/anti-Mac…they’re just waiting for blood to be smelled in the water to shout about it -- like they did mid-last season with that weird Mac benching and Zappe chorus of chants/demands and cheers from the home crowd.
-- Patriots rookie QB Malik Cunningham (5-34-1, 3-4 for 19 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) entered the game in the 2nd-half, the 3rd QB for NE, and led a TD drive…leading the way with his mobility. The fans and hometown TV analysts were excited by all the mad scrambling by Cunningham -- but Cunningham, to me, looked slow for a speedy QB…(too) small and (too) thin, and I know he has no passer skills for the NFL, which was on display in this game.
Cunningham looks cool in a broken down/sloppy 3rd and 4th-string battle in the 4th-quarter of a preseason game, but he’s not a real NFL QB prospect…but the fact that he rushed around a bit and rushed for a TD means he’s a ‘sleeper Lamar Jackson’ for Patriots’ homers. He is not.
-- The WR the Patriots QBs were throwing/forcing the ball to was Tre Nixon (4-23-0/6)…always a camp standout, but never an NFL reality. He’s a professional WR/always a backup or journeyman. Six targets for Nixon…next closest WR/TE in targets was ‘2’.
Tyquan Thornton (2-31-0/2) made a nice catch on a downfield ball dangerously floated out there by Zappe, so now he’s ‘fixed’ or ‘a winner’ from this game in analyst’s game notes today. The fact that Thornton played in this game and rookie camp sensation Demario Douglas did not…tells you what you need to know -- Thornton is on the outs/not starting/not an FF sleeper, but Douglas is the opposite of all of those things. (*UPDATE: Douglas played 2 snaps...and Belichick said the guys who practiced the most played the least in this game...i.e. Douglas was hanging with JuJu and DeVante most of the night).
I missed it/didn’t see it coming on Douglas pre-NFL Draft, but he is going to start Week 1…I’d bet.
Pats rookie WR Kayshon Boutte (2-7-0/2) might also be ahead of Thornton before long. Boutte had a nice catch on a poorly thrown ball. The LSU enigma (Boutte) is rising up as Tyquan fades away.
-- If the Patriots were treating Tre Nixon like their top WR in this game by looking his way most drop backs and/or forcing him the ball…the Houston version of that was rookie WR Tank Dell (5-65-1/8). Eight targets for Dell, the next closest WR/TE to him was ‘3’ (J. Camp).
Stroud was looking for him…Mills was looking for him. Dell is clearly the ‘it’ WR people have claimed observing training camp. Dell looked fine, to me, but I wasn’t overwhelmed by what I saw -- he’s a smaller, speedy, competent/talented WR…but most importantly now -- he seems to be ‘trusted’.
Will Dell start Week 1? Probably not, but he’ll play a lot of snaps as a #4 WR early on. His ‘stock’ is definitely ‘up’/future is bright after observing him here. He looked like a Marquise Brown type WR.
-- John Metchie (1-5-0/1) made his debut here…a great moment for a guy who battled cancer last season and is now back and starting for the Texans. Houston started Collins-Metchie-Dell in this game…running their top guys with/for Stroud. But Robert Woods will start over Dell, but Woods was given veteran respect not to be in this preseason game (ditto Dalton Schultz).
Metchie is the listed starter on the unofficial depth chart…but as an outside WR, whereas Woods is the listed slot starter. I wish Metchie were in that slot role, for FF purposes.
-- The running games were a disaster here, on both sides.
After watching this one preseason game and considering training camp notes prior and watching last preseason and regular season -- I have NO doubt the Patriots are eventually going to sign one of the free agent RBs. They cannot go into the season with their current #2-3-4-5 RBs behind Rhamondre Stevenson.
Pierre Strong (6-21-0, 3-12-0/3) has to be the slowest 4.3s running RB in the history of football. I never see much in Strong when he gets the ball…two years running.
I want the #2 to be Kevin Harris (8-10-0), but he is so limited. All he is good for is slamming between the tackles. He has no outside speed/moves and offers little in the passing game.
I’m guessing this is where one of Fournette or Elliott is gonna land -- and when that happens, it’s going to drag down Stevenson’s ADP.
-- Houston has better backup RB talent, but their O-Line is so bad it’s hard for any of them to shine. Devin Singletary (5-14-0, 0-0-0/1) playing in this game let’s you know he’s the clear #2 to Dameon Pierce. This should have been a veteran-respect sit out but wasn’t here.
Gerrid Doaks (5-20-0, 2-5-0/2) has some NFL hope and he looked solid here.
UDFA rookie that I really like, Xazavian Valladay (4-8-0) had a couple nice runs, but also got caught in the backfield (from a corrupted O-Line not blocking) to drag down his numbers. Most telling with him is four other RBs were in the game before Valladay got in on the action…not good for his chances to make the 53-man. He’s likely headed to the practice squad at this stage.
-- Let’s talk about IDPs from this game…
Patriots DB’s notes:
Rookie Christian Gonzalez (3 tackles) looked totally fine. Nico Collins (1-8-0/1) ran some routes his way and could not shake free of Gonzalez on his routes the best day Nico ever lived. Gonzalez will be a day one starter.
Intriguing 7th-round rookie out of Jackson State CB Isaiah Bolden (2 tackles) has real speed on display…he looked nice returning kicks and in coverage. He has some long/lean Tariq Woolen hopes in the future with more development.
Rookie Ameer Speed (6’2”/215) is a big CB, possible SAF…he looked solid in his debut.
The Patriots drafted a lot of ‘long’ corners/DBs this year…talented ones at that.
The other Patriots IDP note rookie: DE Keion White (3 tackles, 1 QB hit) was making noise right away…partially his play/athleticism propelled him here and partially a bad blocking group from Houston. White looks like he belongs. Another useful asset from this year’s draft.
Only one IDP note from the Houston side, and it is a reversal of my prior scouting… For two years, I’ve watched Alabama ILB Henry To’oTo’o (5 tackles) on college tape and mocked him and thought he was one of the slowest ILB prospects I’d seen get pushed onto us. Well…he looked pretty quick in this game. Either I’m an idiot (possible) and/or missed it…or he slimmed down, got more sleek and is much faster. Good on him. He’ll be the Texans ILB of the future for sure with the DeMeco Ryans-Alabama connection.
To’oTo’o did not start at ILB, he was with the 2nd team. The starting ILB for Houston this game was free agent add Denzel Perryman (4 tackles, 1 sack)…and he played like a man possessed. He may be back to form to lead the league in tackles like he has flirted with of late…a late bloomer/good+ run stopper.
-- Final note, a kicker note…
The Patriots kicked an early field goal…and it was Nick Folk (1/1) getting the shot. Drafted rookie Chad Ryland kicked off but didn’t get an FG or XP chance. Folk and Ryland are in a kicker battle that Ryland may not win if the Pats think they are a ground-and-pound offense with a top defense that can play a slowdown, slow scoring affairs style of play this season. A veteran, reliable kicker is needed for that style…I would think.
I leave this game watch/scouting thinking better of the Patriots’ 2023 chances with their defensive depth/talent…and a stark reminder that Houston is NOT ready in 2023. They could be in 2024. 2023 is going to be growing pains.
