- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Chargers 30, Chiefs 24
The Los Angeles Chargers are better than the Kansas City Chiefs…and they know it. ‘They’ is both L.A. and KC. The L.A. Chargers are now the favorites to win the AFC West…or they should be.
This isn’t a ‘what happened last week means that’s the law going forward’ overreaction. You know I don’t fall for that. It’s not that the Chiefs are bad…it’s just the Chargers are better.
LAC has the better O-Line (and they were missing their top OL for this game). LAC has the better WR group…group/starting trio. The combo WR/TE group…it’s about even. RB is the same…each has a small guy RB who is good, but I’d rather have Ekeler than CEH…but either works. The Chargers are WAY better coached. KC has a good defense…but LAC’s is better 1 thru 11.
KC has a better kicker, tight end, and I’d judge slightly better at QB…but in a couple weeks or months…it could be a draw there. KC has that QB-TE-PK edge…the Chargers better everywhere else. KC has a home field advantage – if/when they play in December, and they do this year.
Worst case, they are both top five or so teams in the NFL…possibly two of the top 3 best teams in the league.
I push LAC as the better team now, and for the future because of the coaching and roster top-to-bottom. But I also feel comfortable saying it because the mystique of ‘the Chiefs’…’Mahomes’…’Tyreek’, for the Chargers, it’s gone/done.
Justin Herbert is now (2-1) versus the Chiefs in his career…the lone loss was his Tyrod lung puncture, last second debut where the Chiefs luckily won in OT…a total shock at the time, that the rookie QB of a bad team could go and lay the smackdown on the holy Chiefs. Granted one win was a Week 17 last year vs. Chad Henne.
The Chargers have zero fear of the Chiefs going forward…the weight of that ‘fear’ is put over to KC, they should fear that they are not-as-good-as-the-Chargers LAC – but they’re so arrogant in believing they can beat anyone with Mahomes (logical), it’s probably not dawned on them yet. When they are on the road as a wild card this season, maybe it will dawn on them – that’s if they even make the playoffs or don’t finish last in the AFC West. Kidding…
The Chargers baited KC into running the ball more and not throwing to Tyreek, because Eric Bieniemy is such a genius and thinks not getting Tyreek manufactured touches is not important to victory, so KC took the bait and turned themselves into a small ball team playing a more dynamic one…and the dynamic one won. When they needed a big play, LAC dared KC to beat them with Marcus Kemp, Jody Fortson, and Mecole Hardman – and KC took that bait and lost.
I’m not saying the Chiefs are terrible – they are still a top 5 team as likely to win the division and win the Super Bowl as any top team. They are not unworthy, I’m just saying – they’re not as good as they think and the Chargers are that good, and are not living in fear of KC.
This whole current t week, every football analyst will smugly chuckle that us moronic fans are so stupid…likely panicking over KC’s (1-2) start…because THEY know KC will be fine. THEY think that because THEY (healthy) fear Mahomes…THEIR football game analysis goes as far as the QB who has the most highlights/that they like. You know who doesn’t fear KC/Mahomes – the Chargers, who’ve beaten them 2 of out the last three (should’ve been 3-0). The Raiders who beat them in their first matchup last year, and then got robbed with a late TD from sweeping them last year. And Denver, who usually flusters Mahomes above all defenses. Unfortunately for KC, those are the three intradivision teams…who are all now above KC in the standings.
We project KC to 11-12 wins right now. We project LAC to 12-13 wins and the AFC West title, today as we know these teams. Kansas City is still a top five team (because of Mahomes)…and still can win the Super Bowl (because of Mahomes), but it’s time to recognize that KC has issues and are getting bypassed or caught up to by several teams now. It’s not a layup for KC in 2021-22.
The Chiefs are now (1-3) in their last 4 games (including the Super Bowl)…a lucky come from behind win vs. CLE Week 1 from losing four straight.
The Chargers are (6-1) in their last 7 games…a last second FG loss vs. Dallas away from being (3-0) and winners of seven-straight.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Is Justin Herbert (26-38 for 281 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) better than Patrick Mahomes (27-44 for 260 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs)? For Fantasy? For the NFL?
For the NFL? Maybe. Not yet, but soon…possibly. Can’t they both just be great? Mahomes is more flashy-great, more memorable…Herbert is a bit smarter/more technically surgical…but both are tremendous. Which makes the point – if they are in a close debate about which one is better – then shouldn’t the Chargers be the favorite to win the AFC West?
On FanDuel, the Chargers are currently +390 to win the West…behind -115 KC…and +340 Denver.
Every analyst says…oh, you know the Chiefs will get it together, don’t worry about (1-2). Why don’t we say…oh, the Chargers are in 3rd-place in the AFC West, but you know they’ll get past Denver and Vegas and challenge for the West title? We only say that about the Chiefs because it’s been indoctrinated into us. I think the Chiefs will be fine (hot take), but we’re missing out on that so too will the Chargers be fine/are fine+…as they go on to win the AFC West…maybe.
Better for Fantasy?
Draw…or lean Mahomes. If you swapped the two QBs on their respective teams, then definitely Mahomes for FF. Here’s a real hot take – I think Mahomes would be at a whole other level with Brandon Staley his whole career, and that Andy Reid/Eric Bieniemy and the lack of decent WRs outside of Tyreek Hill is actually harnessing Mahomes…and he’s still the best QB in football – that’s how great Mahomes is…he’s overcoming Reid/Nagy/Bieniemy. Kinda like how good Brady is away from Belichick, but he won several Super Bowl with Belichick.
-- Tyreek Hill (5-56-0/7) two crap FF-games in a row now. That’s something I’d like to just put the broad ‘You know KC will be fine’ label on…’You know Tyreek will be fine’. I’m assuming he will be, but no one has a worse scheme for an ace weapon than the illustrious Eric Bieniemy (so really, it’s Andy Reid’s issue…he’s the front man for these perpetual bad O-Cs…Pederson, Nagy, Bieniemy) has for Tyreek Hill.
Davante Adams always gets the ball…even though everyone knows it’s coming.
Cooper Kupp keeps blowing up single coverage all 2021, even though any idiot D-C knows it’s coming, it can’t be stopped.
Tyreek Hill? He’s open literally every play if he ran different routes adjusting to the defense. Defenses play way back on him, so instead of adjusting and getting Tyreek short/quick touches to counter…the Chiefs brain trust just keeps sending Hill medium and deep into the web waiting for him. But, hey…Eric Bieniemy is the next great NFL head coach and it’s racism is why he hasn’t been hired yet, after going 0-fer-10/20 on head job attempts the past two years.
The NFL isn’t racist on Bieniemy, they’re just smart enough to know the KC O-C con. The O-Cs are not MAKING Patrick Mahomes…see: Matt Nagy’s Chicago career of QB destruction. No more than Byron Leftwich is now a great O-C because Brady walked in the building.
Tyreek should be fine; we go through this at least once a year. Honestly, in a league without bonuses – I’d rather have Cooper Kupp…and probably Mike Williams and/or Keenan Allen for PPR redraft right now. Those QBs and HCs and O-Cs know to get those guys the ball without fail.
-- Yes, Mike Williams (7-122-2/9) ahead of Tyreek…I said it. I can’t believe it myself, but it’s working better than we theorized in the summer of 2021. Williams looks better than I’ve ever seen him – he’s in top shape, faster/moving quicker than I’ve ever seen him…and obviously it is showing on the field and in the box score. Amazing what an ace QB, new (good) coaching staff, and a contract year does for a player.
You know I’m kidding about Tyreek…I would never trade him in a basic WR deal. Just venting.
Williams is going to be a WR1 all year, as long as Herbert is alive.
Between Keenan and Mike…I think I’d take Mike for FF right now; he’s been that good.
And, as I spoke of on the Video Q&A Tuesday…remarkably Williams is not being ranked by websites as a WR1 this week…he’s more WR2 than WR1 nationally. I’m seeing trades for Williams right now, despite his heat…because current owners (not FFMers) think this jig may be up and they need to sell it hot.
Ja’Marr Chase is a sell hot…not Mike Williams. If I can use like a Deebo + ____ to leverage into Mike Williams, I am all over it.
-- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (17-100-0, 2-9-1/2) is fine, nice game…but this isn’t a breakout F performance. No more than Peyton Barber hitting 100+ yards rushing is a sign. If CEH had 90 yards here…no one cares as much. But THREE digits…100 rushing yards, why it’s GAME ON!! The same reason people are into Damien Harris (vs. MIA) and Elijah Mitchell (vs. DET) so much…they had that ONE 100-yard rushing game recently, so they’re Jim Brown now.
CEH has now played in 16 career regular season games. He has rushed for 4 TDs and three 100+ yard games. 992 yards rushing total. 6 total TDs.
Wow, wonderful! A solid RB2. You’d rather have James Robinson among others.
-- One of the flaws of the L.A. Chargers is their RB group. For some reason, Larry Roundtree (4-3-0, 0-0-0/1) is seeing key touches.
There’s literally a billion RBs better than Roundtree…why won’t the Chargers go get one? Roundtree is averaging 2.2 yards per carry and has 1 catch for -1 yards so far this season…what an impact to the offense! Go get Marlon Mack…or something…anything. They need a hammer RB working with Ekeler…and Roundtree is not it.
-- Not for nothing, Joe Fortson (2-7-1/2) is looking better and better for KC. He’s showing that he’s a good receiver with great catch radius as a tall TE/WR type, and fortunately all the other KC WRs outside of Tyreek shouldn’t be on NFL rosters…so Fortson has some chance to stand out here.
Which means newly signed Josh Gordon has some chance here – but note Gordon was last good last decade for about 10 games…and he’s been a flop since. You have to hope Gordon staying off drugs, improving with age, not taking a toll to his body due to drugs the past 5-10 years, and he gets integrated into the KC offense…all within the next week or two to go on to become a WR2 (in your dreams) – for this waiver claim to make any sense in normal sized roster leagues.
You are living a legit Fantasy if you think you got something hot with Gordon. Sit on him and wait and see in deeper roster leagues, if you’d like…but in normal sized leagues, you are wasting time as you turned your nose up at Christian Kirk and Sterling Shepard (pre-injury) among others off waivers the past few weeks. We always want that Disney story…investing too heavy on rookies and taking nostalgic flyers on washed-up veteran reclamation projects like Gordon.
I could probably guess your Fantasy record in 10-12 team leagues by the amount of rookies you start each week?
One rookie consistently starting…you’re probably 2-1/1-2.
Two rookies starting every week, you’re (1-2)/(0-3) probably.
No rookies have started for you this year, you’re probably (3-0)/(2-1).
Those magical rookies suck all of us in every time and are a letdown early in their rookie journey. In 2022, in prep for redrafts, I am making it a Ten Commandment NOT to take one rookie before rounds like 8-10 of a typical redraft. Najee-Pitts-Javonte-CEH-JTaylor…they’ve all been over-spends off the jump in redraft the past two years.
-- I want to like the Chargers-DST, because I think they are a really good defensive unit (maybe a top 5 in the league)…but I hate their schedule start. LV-CLE-BAL ahead is not great for DST scoring. Then a Week 7 bye – but it’s Week 7 that I might pounce in anticipation – NE-PHI-MIN-PIT-DEN-CIN-NYG-KC-HOU-DEN. Find a stream for the MIN and KC games and you’re golden otherwise in that post-Week 7 stretch.
Brandon Staley might be the best defensive mind this side of Sean McDermott in the NFL.
Snap Counts of Interest:
49 = CEH
27 = D Williams
03 = McKinnon
46 = J Cook
31 = Parham
49 = Ekeler
11 = Roundtree
07 = J Jackson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Bengals 24, Steelers 10
The Steelers were never really in this game. I mean…it was semi-close, not a blowout but as an observer, and to the fans in the stadium, and to the two teams on the field – you could see it in their faces, the Bengals were never worried the Steelers were the better team or making a comeback here.
The predominant look on the faces of the fans in attendance, and to the players on either side was more likely a shocked realization a la: https://youtu.be/RP-hMSQEAE4, a realization that the Steelers are done…the Bengals are clearly the better of the two teams/headed in a better direction and the Steelers are dying right before our very eyes.
Now, it’s possible the Steelers get back their injured key defenders and are a tough out, low scoring fist-fight team…but there should be no way the Steelers have a winning record or make the playoffs, etc.
It’s possible, if the Steelers lose their next three games, which is possible (at GB, DEN, SEA) for them to fall to (1-5) – which causes a situation where Ben Roethlisberger is dealt to a team in desperate need and the Steelers just tank this season out with Mason Rudolph/Dwayne Haskins – and then the GM should then be fired in-season as well. Mike Tomlin should be dumped too, but he won’t be. He has the media protecting him…but his real reason for existing has been Big Ben, and as Big Ben has gone…so has Tomlin’s coaching prowess.
What the franchise has done to their own offensive line, what they allowed to happen, what they didn’t address the past few years…while they traded high picks away for a marginal safety (Minkah) and wasted their 2021 1st-round pick on a stiff running back who is more a day two, day three talent – it’s self-inflicted wounds, it’s dereliction of duty…people just awful at their jobs. Ben Roethlisberger cannot cover it up any longer. Those days are gone. We project a (6-11) season for them, as-is, right now.
The Bengals have some similar issues – they have as bad an O-Line as there is in football and wasted a high draft pick on a marginal WR (Chase) – but Joe Burrow is better than Big Ben and the Bengals now have a defense. The Bengals are going to fail ahead too – terrible O-Line = doom without a Mahomes/Herbert/Kyler/Rodgers (or prior years Big Ben) type QB to bail you out. And Burrow is not playing at their level in 2021. The Bengals will be lucky to get to 8 wins this season.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s talk about Ben Roethlisberger (38-58 for 318 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs)…
I have watched a lot of Big Ben games over the years. I’ve seen him be a miracle worker playing through a leg injury he couldn’t hardly plant/stand on…but somehow he gutted it out and won games with his arm, even in a reduced state with his body. But this game right here – this was the worst I have ever seen him look.
I could forgive him for looking sloppy/troubled Week 1 vs. Buffalo (the best defense in football, arguably). I was slamming him for Week 2’s flop against Las Vegas. But between that Week 2 and this Week 3 mess…we have to say the old Big Ben is dead. May he rest in peace.
Part of the problem is Ben’s skills are eroding, but I say most of it is to be blamed on the offensive line. Ben has no time. Where the old Big Ben would have moved around, hung in to the last second and made a miracle throw…that Ben exists in his mind, but doesn’t exist in reality/on the field.
Ben looks like he’s coming to that realization – he doesn’t have the ‘it’ anymore. He’s more worried about getting hit hard than he is making miracle plays. He gets rid of the ball fast and to the first thing he sees/is comfortable with because he’s trying to get by without the world knowing he’s lost his fastball. Matt Ryan is going through the same thing. They can still make plays and have moments with the proper time, but under any duress…it’s over. Basic plays/throws look challenging.
I re-watched this game…and saw a legend die right before my eyes. Sad to see.
When QBs start to die off…they tend to lean on one of two throws: (a) the easiest, quickest one and/or (b) their favorite/trusted receiver. No more reading the field. No more spreading it around like a surgeon – it’s pre-pick the throw and hope it connects, or if you sense the danger…just dump it off to the safety valve, get rid of the hot potato.
I watched Ben die here. I watch Matt Ryan dying every week too. It all makes me marvel at what Tom Brady is accomplishing at 44.
Ben’s quick passing, scared/pressured ways affects all the related offensive weapons. Let’s go through them…
-- Chase Claypool (9-96-0/15) played the role of Diontae Johnson this game, because Diontae wasn’t there. Consider what that means…
Ben is not changing off that usage/throw – 10+ targets all to the main BFF receiver, while the other WRs randomly starve. It’s Diontae who will be getting the heavy count of short quick throws when he is back. Meaning Diontae is a PPR WR1 as long as Ben is there and Diontae is healthy.
It means Claypool is a probably WR1 with Diontae out (JuJu got hurt halfway in so we don’t fully know what would have happened between JuJu and Claypool), but when Diontae returns…Claypool for sure goes back to his deep ball guy on the wing – where Ben throws one up for grabs to him every so often, but it rarely connects. There is no more: Ben makes a 5+ step drop, sets up, reads progressions, Claypool runs a 7-10 yard cut to the sideline timing route where Ben whistles one to him in-stride – Ben has no time for that. The pocket is collapsing three steps into a five-step drop, it’s why Ben is getting dinged for getting rid of the ball so fast. Because it’s true. It’s the only way they can get a pass off without a sack happening. Good for Diontae…and Claypool is semi-screwed (for FF) unless he makes a miracle catch or two.
For his part, Claypool was great in the Diontae role because once he has the ball…he’s a tall, 235-240+ pound man making moves. Hard to tackle. I wonder if Mike Tomlin sees it and thinks he should switch Claypool and Diontae’s roles, but Tomlin’s an offensive moron carried by Big Ben for the past decade…and Ben is comfortable with Diontae, then Diontae it shall be.
When Ben is gone…injury, trade, retire…Diontae Johnson is the must sell of the century.
Claypool’s future? As long as Ben is there, and CC is in the ‘go deep mode’ then he’s going to be Mike Williams-esque circa 2018-2020 East version – big guy, jump ball guy, no real consistency to his FF-game. Some hot FF spurts, then some lacking. We need for Claypool to keep that Diontae role, or for the Steelers to get a real O-Line for Ben (or whomever) in 2022…and I don’t know if either of those things will happen. I’m starting to worry that Claypool’s talent will go underutilized as we all complain about it for the next two years. The longer Diontae is out, the more Claypool might show he’s the better fit for the role. I love Claypool’s talent, but this Steelers thing is dying faster than I thought.
One of Diontae or Claypool is gonna thrive in 2021…the other is going to be random. Diontae has the inside track, but his constant injuries and drops might get him bounced. The moment we see Claypool in that heavy-target role WITH Diontae back (and DJ moved to the outside)…you gotta sell Diontae ASAP.
Diontae in the current Dionte role in 2021 – he is a PPR WR1. If moved to the Claypool role on the outside makes Diontae as WR3. We have a small window to operate with Diontae right now…and Claypool.
With all that said, minus Diontae…JuJu Smith-Schuster (3-35-0/4), A.K.A the worst free agent allocation of dollars in 2021, was nothing special…because he is nothing special. And Ben is using one guy heavy and everyone else at random. JuJu is mostly in the random category.
-- Pat Freiermuth (3-22-1/5) has a role developing with Ben…trusted red zone/end zone option. Freiermuth scored a TD here, but Ben tried to get him with two other TD tosses and an inside the red zone shot. I would not be shocked if Freiermuth ended up to be Ben’s second target choice from here on in…the second best WR/TE target/output numbers…and he has like a Robert Tonyan 2020 season: 2-4 catches a game, 25-40 yards per game, but 10+ TDs.
Eric Ebron (0-0-0/3) is closer to getting cut than he is cutting into Freiermuth’s red zone action.
-- Diontae (when healthy) is the current real throw for Big Ben. Claypool is a couple times a game heave on the outside guy. Freiermuth is going to be the TD guy. Najee Harris (14-40-0, 14-102-0/19) is going to be gamma radiated James White/Gio Bernard…the easy dump pass for Ben to stay alive. I mean, 19 pass targets for a slow running back…it’s silly. But Najee has good hands, is tall, and seems like a mismatch outside (but isn’t, really).
It’s a terrible role for Najee because he’s such a slow, non-athlete for that role. He is the worst stop-start starting RB in the NFL potentially. When Najee pauses or stops or stops to try and cut from traffic…he’s dead. It’s why his yards per carry are so low and his yards per catch is pretty weak too.
Najee has one superpower…but the Steelers are not built to utilize it. Najee will be an NFL star running straight ahead…with room/space to run. Najee with a head of steam is going to be wicked, destroying tacklers in his way. Najee trying to be agile is wicked-bad, in Bostonian terms.
At Alabama, they could blow holes wide open for Najee to trounce college students all day long. In the NFL, with these Steelers…it’s a mismatch against Najee. Get used to a lot of 15 carries for 50 yards games, but with 5-10 catches per game. Great for PPR…not so hot for non-PPR because he’s not scoring TDs because the Steelers don’t grind to the goal line area often, easily…and then they can’t block Najee into the end zone otherwise.
When will Najee be a superstar?
I can tell you when…once you tell me how long it will take for the Steelers to get a real O-Line? They need four new offensive linemen, minimum. Who’s coming to play for Pittsburgh as a free agent? Everyone is leaving, not staying. It might be 3-4 years from now before Pittsburgh has a real QB and real O-Line.
-- Every week, Joe Burrow (14-18 for 172 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 5-7-0) gets a little more like the old Burrow…but still not fully there. I’d say he’s like 60-70% of what I’m used to. Workable, but not elite…not a ‘put the team on my back’ kind of warrior yet/again like he was. We got little flashes here, more than last week and more than the week before that…but we’re not all the way back yet.
Dak Prescott went through a horrible injury too, but he looks WAY better than Burrow in their recoveries. But also, the Cincy O-Line is terrible…but credit to them (and Pitt minus all their best pass rushers), Burrow had 0 sacks…and 0 QB hits on him. Wow.
-- Ja’Marr Chase (4-65-2/5) isn’t playing bad football, but I’m not seeing any ‘wow’ this guy’s a dominant WR. He’s a fast guy with 4 TDs in 3 games…one nice bomb he almost dropped, but reached out and brought it in. Then his other three TDs were garden variety ‘on the field’ got the TD plays…two of those were underthrown bombs he adjusted to and the DBs didn’t.
It’s working, but I don’t see anything special. The targeting is pretty low. But ride it while you can…I’d trade it hot.
-- Rookie Chris Evans (2-26-0/2) is starting to build up into a passing game/2-minute drill type option/back. He’s working his way towards being a possible Mixon handcuff, but it would be Perine-Evans right now.
If you were looking for flyer RBs to sit on hoping an injury to the starter might spring them…Evans is a name.
-- I’ve been lauding the Bengals defense since the preseason…and here they are – the #7 PPG allowed defense in the NFL and #9 in yards allowed. They’ve not faced the toughest schedule, but it isn’t a total gimme. My eyes tell the tale…they are good. Not great, but good. Wild card playoff-worthy. It wont be the defense that keeps the Bengals out of the playoffs…it will be Burrow being too tentative with his knee/the O-Line getting him obliterated.
Jacksonville Week 4 on TNF should be solid for the Cincy DST, then trouble with GB Week 5…but then DET-BAL-NYJ isn’t a bad stretch but all on the road.
Logan Wilson (14 tackles, 2 PDs) is really stepping up at linebacker for them – 10.0 tackles per game so far.
-- I imagine the Steelers DST will be dropped in some places this week for two reasons…
1) They’ve been beaten the last 2 weeks, giving up 26 and 24 points…and not looking good.
2) They are at Green Bay Week 4
They would be an opportunity to vulture in on them – because they looked excellent Week 1, then started losing all their key/top defenders the last two weeks…led by T.J. Watt.
The schedule Week 5 vs. DEN isn’t bad…IF Watt and the others are back. Weeks 8-9-10 with CLE-CHI-DET could be a great spot with everyone back.
But if Watt doesn’t come back, I have no interest.
Snap Counts of Interest:
76 = Claypool
66 = JWash
47 = McCloud
33 = JuJu
47 = Ebron
30 = Freiermuth
39 = Chase
37 = Boyd
27 = Tate
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Saints 28, Patriots 13
Jameis Winston played some of the worst quarterbacking you’ll see in the NFL this game, but the guy has to be the luckiest player in the NFL. Truly. Not saying that because I can’t stand him. In fact, he’s so lucky I’m starting to think I should endorse him and just glom onto it…roll with the trend/what’s working.
You want to know about this game in a nutshell, in one play? Here it is: https://youtu.be/qgYDtaeuLy4
A ball that the QB should just eat…even if he thinks the penalty is on the opponent, you have no need to risk this – Winston is hit, wrapped up, his eyes drop to the ground because he’s about to be pulled down for a sack (so he has lost sight of the entire end zone situation)…but the pull down sack attempt actually spins him back upright for a second, so (falling down backwards) he blindly tosses it to the end zone – where Marquez Callaway outfights a DB for a TD.
Aside from that play, this was a battle of coaches trying to out-run game, hide their QB’s deficiencies, and play good defense to get over the other team. The Saints have the better O-Line and defense…and more energy as a ‘team’, so they got the win…over lifeless New England.
Every week, the legend of Bill Belichick gets another round of tarnish.
What will people say about Belichick if Tom Brady returns to New England and drops 40+ points in a blowout win and the Patriots are sitting (1-3) with the season essentially over for them…humiliated by their ‘ex’ in what will be one of the highest rated regular-season games in the NFL in a long time?
We project 6-7 wins for New England, possibly 8 wins this season…because of a schedule littered with bottom tier teams (like the Patriots are). But this is not a good team. It’s not even a young emerging team. It just exists like a pickup basketball game where random players are thrown together on a team.
The Saints win and go to (2-1). This is a good football team that could win the NFC South over Tom Brady, if they didn’t have Winston – who eventually will burn the Saints with his terrible play. The Saints playoff chances are directly correlated to how long they roll with Winston when the dark times hit. We’re projecting (9-8) for the Saints right now, but any QB changes can shift this 1-2 wins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Sean Payton is now playing to the strengths of this team: a good-to-great offensive line and a top 5 or so NFL defense. Gone are the old run-and-gun Saints. Now, it’s a heavy run game and good+ defense, protecting their terrible QB.
Winston’s passing yards in his three games with NO in 2021: 148-111-128. The Saints are #5 in rushing attempts in the NFL, however. They are also #32/last in passing attempts.
They’re hiding Winston, which makes me wonder why they even bother with him…because all he is risk waiting to happen. Unnecessary risk. They need a game manager, and they have the opposite. It’s a bold strategy. https://youtu.be/9HVejEB5uVk
Because this is the lowest volume in the NFL passing game – you’re hosed on Callaway-Deonte-Trautman…Michael Thomas (if/when he returns). All you got is a lot of Alvin Kamara (28-89-0, 3-29-1/4) and now red zone Taysom Hill (6-32-1) as a wrinkle.
Kamara is going to take way more work than he ever has…way more hits to his wiry body. Tony Jones as a hold/bet on the starting RB getting hurt…it isn’t a bad hold & hope #2 RB back of the roster guy.
-- Mac Jones (30-51 for 271 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs) is already a better QB than Jameis Winston will ever be or has been. Jones is progressing nicely. This was the first game where I saw him really working down field with more purpose.
Mac is the current favorite in the ‘who wound up the best rookie QB in 2021’ sweepstakes.
Zach Wilson is dying in a terrible Jets offense. Justin Fields was never as good as Jones, but he’s mobile and decent…but he’s stuck in a terrible Chicago offense. Trevor Lawrence just isn’t as good as Jones, in general. And Trey Lance can’t be trusted to play QB yet in the NFL. So, by process of elimination it’s Jones as the top QB…which is going to make fans of NYJ-CHI-SF all kick themselves all offseason, but the media will only focus on Jones being a better QB than Wilson (to them). The media will cover for Fields-Lance for as long as they can.
Jones is progressing nicely, but only has so much upside with this increasingly behind-the-times coaching staff.
-- Mac lost his #1 pass target, James White to injury…not sure how much time he’ll miss. Losing White and the Pats quick deficit to New Orleans all forced Jones to have to open it up to all his other options.
Jakobi Meyers (9-94-0/14) is the winner in that equation.
YTD Targets for NE:
29 = Meyers
18 = Agholor
16 = Jonnu
14 = J White
14 = Bourne
13 = H Henry
I should’ve put Meyers on the Three things/Five Players Waivers to trust…right in the Hunter Renfrow range as a PPR WR body that’s working. But it’s apropos I overlooked him…Meyers is always overlooked, even by me.
6.3 rec. (9.7 targets), 58.7 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = Meyers through Week 3
Meyers is the 13th most targeted WR in the NFL right now. He’s a legit PPR hopeful…lot’s of catches, decent yards, but low probability of TDs.
-- The loss of James White springs J.J. Taylor (1-2-0, 2-3-0/2) to some life in the NE backfield. He is going to be the future James White, and the future might be now if White is out an extended period of time. Mac Jones needs/wants that checkdown option…Taylor can provide that but has nowhere near the time/experience as White.
I’m not sure JJT will get enough work to truly matter for FF just yet, even with White out. And Brandon Bolden (who led all NE RBs in snap counts this game) might get more time due to his experience.
-- Damien Harris (6-14-0, 2-0-0/2) has not been running the ball very effectively this year. It’s either an O-Line issue, or Harris isn’t that good. This might lead to more J.J. Taylor opportunity as well.
Rhamondre Stevenson was a healthy scratch…he’s only likely to matter if Harris gets hurt. He’s getting the rookie treatment Harris did a few years ago, but in desperation – he may get the call.
But we have a ‘watch’ warning here – I think Belichick is getting frustrated with Harris. Brandon Bolden (3-0-0, 3-23-0/4) played a lot in the 2nd-half here. A more trusted pass blocker.
A lot of negative news on Harris this week – and then facing Tampa Bay’s run defense…this could kill off Harris for FF value for several weeks. You might be able to dump him on an unsuspecting RB-desperate person.
-- The public was all over the Patriots-DST Week 3…while the Saints-DST was under 50% owned nationally.
The Patriots didn’t really embarrass Tua Week 1, and they lost the game. They got trampled by the NO run game here. Zach Wilson/the Jets handed this DST a gift Week 2…it wasn’t a super-menacing defensive performance but great output/FF stats. Outside of the Jets gift week, the Patriots defense isn’t really playing all that well…not like people think (from the past).
Consider they have played three of the worst offenses/QBs in the NFL and were FF duds in two of the games. They face TB this week, so they will be dropped in FF leagues in places. You might consider picking them up and sitting on them. Pats get HOU Week 5 and the Jets Week 7. Have one DST for Weeks 4 and 6, use the Pats Weeks 5 and 7.
You know what a really nice fit is? NE with CIN DST…
Week 4 = CINN hosting JAX
Week 5 = NE at HOU
Week 6 = CIN at DET
Week 7 = NE hosting NYJ
Week 8 = CIN at NYJ
A five-game stretch with good DSTs facing NYJ 2x, HOU, DET, JAX
-- The Saints DST is hot…this is a really good defense and CB Bradley Roby only played 2 snaps, as they get him up to speed. If Roby ends up starting/playing heavy snaps with Lattimore and Adebo – it’s a special secondary developing.
Rookie CB Paulsen Adebo (5 tackles) is so good…he might be the real DROY, if not for Micah Parsons.
Snap Counts of Interest:
69 = Meyers
58 = Agholor
55 = Bourne
52 = H Henry
30 = Jonnu
33 = Bolden
22 = Dam Harris
10 = JJ Taylor
06 = J White
51 = Trautman
30 = G Griffin
08 = Juwan Johnson
38 = Callaway
29 = Stills
19 = Deonte
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Vikings 30, Seahawks 17
The Seahawks jumped out to an early 17-7 lead and looked like they might run away with it, but it was all Minnesota from there. They scored 23 unanswered points and completely shut out Seattle in the 2nd half.
These are two really similar teams. Both have good QB's, a great starting WR duo, good RB, and both have suspect defenses. The Vikings are a little weaker through the air on defense, and the Seahawks are a little weaker on the ground. Neither is particularly good and it's going to hold them back. The difference maker in this game was Minnesota finally getting pressure on Wilson in the 2nd half which halted a few drives. Seattle never really got close to Cousins. I suspect both of these teams finish with somewhere around 10 wins depending on schedule and luck, not bad, probably in the playoffs but also not real Superbowl contenders.
Fantasy Notes
--Kirk Cousins (30-38 for 323 yards, 3 TD/0 INT) is on fire. He's quietly averaging over 300 yards passing and 2.6 TD's per game through the first three weeks. There are a couple of rough games through his schedule, but by and large he's going to be playing a lot of weak defenses. I'm not sure why he gets overlooked every year, but it's looking like another top 10 finish for Cousins this year. He's a great #2 QB to have right now behind Mahomes/Murray/Herbert.
--With Dalvin Cook sitting this one out, the workload went to his backup Alexander Mattison (26-112-0, 6-59-0/8) and I have to say, it was hard to tell the difference. I guess that's a little bit of a compliment for Mattison. He did look as good as I've ever seen him here. But mostly it's just that Cook has never really been all that impressive to me. Why are you paying him so much money when Mattison can do the same job? Mattison is obviously a great guy to play until Cook comes back.
--In the passing game it looks like Cousins isn't going to lean on just one or two guys. He's spreading the ball around to whoever is open. Here it mostly went to Justin Jefferson (9-118-1/11). Jefferson might be a tick or two down from his rookie season production by the time this year is over. He just doesn't look like a dominant receiver, more like another solid player in a good offense. That stat line looks nice and I'm sure Jefferson owners think everything is fine once again, but I wasn't super impressed by this performance. Jefferson wasn't dominating Seattle and it was quite surprising to see him with that big a stat difference over Adam Thielen (6-50-1/9) who I thought Cousins was looking for more frequently.
Speaking of Thielen, we might be looking at another low yardage total for him this year, but it doesn't matter because he keeps catching TD's. He's got 18 total in his last 18 games.
--Tyler Conklin (7-70-1/8) was more integrated than I've seen him before. He's not a threat to be an elite TE or anything, but he's serviceable. He's going to need the TD's to really have a useful week. Otherwise we're going to see a lot of 4-35-0 lines from him.
--I was excited to see how KJ Osborn (2-26-0/2) would follow up his breakout last week. Spoiler alert: he didn't. Osborn didn't get his first target until the very end of the 3rd quarter and only managed 2 for the game. He looks fantastic like RC said, but he's still not a major part of this offense. The RB still comes first, then Jefferson and Thielen, and finally Conklin and Osborn depending on gameflow and matchup. You can't count on him for fantasy right now but he'll likely have a few splash spots every 3rd or 4th game.
--Nothing has changed as far as Seattle's offense goes. They still want to run the ball with Chris Carson (12-80-1, 2-2-0/2) first and foremost. I don't know why, but I know that's the plan. Carroll loves Carson and thinks he's more important than Russell apparently, even when they are losing by 10 points in the 4th quarter. Carson left this game for a short period at one point and came back in the game a bit later, but then left again shortly after. There is some talk of a possible hamstring injury, but we don't have any solid information on this yet but it's something to monitor.
If you have Carson, or if you are desperate for RB production, you might grab Alex Collins (2-8-0) for a week or two. He was the only RB that took carries other than Carson and probably would get the lion's share of the early down workload if Carson had to miss time. I can't guarantee it would be worth much though because Travis Homer was running the 2-minute offense and even Penny Hart got a few late snaps.
--Russell Wilson (23-32 for 298, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-7-0) is going to have another frustrating year for fantasy owners. He just doesn't get the same volume throwing as most other top QB's and his incredible efficiency can't always make up for that. He's still a QB1 but probably closer to 12 than he is to 1.
--I warned you about Tyler Lockett (4-31-0/4) last week. Just because his first two games were huge does not automatically mean everything is fine and he's a WR1 lock every week now. This offense just doesn't pass often enough and these receivers tend to go hot and cold. Lockett had a couple of big games, then Metcalf will, and they rotate some more. It's going to be a roller coaster ride with this guy all year. Hope you're good/lucky at starting him on his monster weeks.
--Let's talk DK Metcalf (6-107-1/9). He looks fantastic. We've always known he had the body of a Greek god and phenomenal athleticism, but his struggles with route running are well documented. If all you can do is run deep then you're easy to defend. I'm here to report that Metcalf is running actual routes now, short and medium, he's making sharp cuts...he's no longer a one trick pony.
I still want to exercise caution for two reasons however. 1) This is still a low volume passing game. 2) This game was played against a weak Vikings secondary. I think it's entirely possible though that we see Metcalf finally become one of the most dominant receivers in the league and the true #1 for Seattle. I want to see a couple more games first, but that's on the table now.
Gerald Everett (5-54-0/5) got his nice box score this week after a couple of letdown games early on. It just looked like random work though, no actual intention to get him the ball. I would still avoid this situation.
Snap Counts of Interest
54 = Tyler Conklin
30 = Ben Ellefson
72 = Adam Thielen
62 = Justin Jefferson
44 = KJ Osborn
42 = Gerald Everett
20 = Will Dissly
16 = Travis Homer
14 = Alex Collins
8 = Penny Hart
- R.C. Fischer
- Total Football Advisor
Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...
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- Ross Jacobs
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2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Panthers 24, Texans 9
Yaaaaaawwnn. This was possibly the most boring game we'll watch all year. Sam Darnold vs Davis Mills does not make for riveting tv. So to help me out with this game recap I've recruited one of the color commentators from this game, Troy Aikman, to help me out.
How are you doing Troy?
I'm good. Didn't get much sleep last night so my eyes are a bit red and swollen. It happens a lot, but I'm excited for a great game of football!
Troy, the game is already over. It was last Thursday. You were there commenting on it.
Right, right, I remember. I just spend so much time studying all these players that sometimes I forget what day of the week it is.
Well those two things don't seem related, but I'm glad to hear you study every player in so much depth because I have a few questions to ask about some of the younger guys. Let's start with Sam Darnold. As everyone is aware by now, he is finally free of the clutches of the worst football coach alive, Adam Gase, and he seems to be doing pretty well. What do you think about the turnaround Darnold is making in Carolina?
I like this guy, always have. He's got great feet in the pocket and a strong arm, makes good decisions. He just needed to clean up the turnovers and you're seeing him do that. I think he's going to be a really good player.
I mean, turnovers come from bad decision making and he's still doing that but ok. He also doesn't throw many passes further downfield than 10 yards so I'm not sure about the big arm either. Do you think playing the Texans, Jets, and Jameis Winston led Saints has anything to do with his success?
No, football is football. Opponent doesn't matter. What's important is that you're playing good football and winning games and Darnold is doing that right now. I really like him.
So you said. Ok well what some of the young pass catchers for the Panthers? Can you give me a breakdown of Terrace Marshall?
I really like this guy. He's a big, strong kid, good hands. He played at LSU with his offensive Coordinator Joe Brady, so Brady is really going to know how to use him.
Well, familiarity is great I guess. Not sure I'd draft someone just because I knew them, but this coaching staff seems to do an awful lot of that. What about Tommy Tremble? He had a rushing touchdown here. That seems pretty athletic for a tight end!
Yeah, it really is. I like this kid. He's a good blocker, really loves football. That's going to help him as a pro.
Umm, ok. Can you tell me anything about his skill set and how it might translate? How does he look as a receiver to you?
He looks really good. I like him.
Fascinating. As you know, the Panthers star player RB Christian McCaffrey got hurt here and is going to be out a few weeks with a hamstring injury. His backup is rookie Chuba Hubbard, a guy that Matt Rhule is familiar with from his time at Baylor when they played Oklahoma St. There are reports that Rhule's wife was at that game and watched Hubbard run wild to help his team beat Rhule and she suggested to her husband that they should draft Hubbard. Doesn't that sound a little strange to you?
No, not at all. He's a good player. I really like him and so does the team.
Right. You've said that. But can he play? He's just an ok athlete and doesn't seem to have a lot going for him.
He ran a 4.36 40-time at his pro day. That's pretty fast! Being fast helps you be a good football player.
Actually the 4.36 times were random social media posts. Jim Nagy, the executive director of the Senior Bowl had him timed at 4.50, which is ok at his size but nothing special.
But he ran for 2,000 yards at Oklahoma St and there's not a lot of guys that can do that. I'm pretty sure all the ones that did are in the Hall of Fame now. He's a guy that I really like and I think he has a bright future.
You're kind of dense, aren't you Troy?
I haven't slept much lately. That's why my eyes are so red and puffy.
Tell me about Houston's rookie QB Davis Mills.
He's a big, strong kid with a big arm. He can make all the throws. The team really likes him and is high on him. I like him too.
I never would have guessed. He struggled a lot in the preseason. Did you see anything here to give you hope that he might be better than that?
Yeah, he really threw the ball well, made good decisions. He has a big arm. I really li...
We got it. Thanks Troy. Thanks for the commentary. You really illuminated some things for us today.
I'm going to go take a nap.
You sound like you need one.
Fantasy Notes
--Can you trust Sam Darnold (23-34 for 304 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 8-11-2) for fantasy now? No. Don't even go there. He's played three of the worst teams in the league (well, the Saints had key defenders out for their Week 2) and has had an awesome defense helping him out. Getting short field position consistently can make even terrible QB's look good. See the Saints week 1 game vs. GB for evidence.
Now he doesn't have his best player (CMC) to take attention away, and the defense has lost an important piece as well. Luckily for Darnold the schedule is pretty light on good teams. He's likely going to have some halfway decent games this year because he gets to play so many bad teams, but against the good teams you're going to see old Darnold because nothing has really changed. Even here he didn't throw a TD and only had a decent fantasy day because he ran in a couple of short scores. Save yourself the headache and avoid him as usual.
--Chuba Hubbard (11-52-0, 3-27-0/5) will step in for McCaffrey for a few weeks and there are some analysts touting him as an RB1 for that time. You've got to be kidding me. You can't take an average RB, give him McCaffrey's workload (which he isn't likely to get because he's not McCaffrey) and expect the same results. Hubbard is nowhere close to McCaffrey. You also have to worry about the threat of Royce Freeman (5-17-0, 1-8-0/1) who is the superior back of the two, although as Troy and I discussed Matt Rhule loves him some Chuba because his wife loves Chuba and that might trump all. There's also the matter of this offensive line not being very good. McCaffrey can make that work. Not so sure about Hubbard.
Don't sell your soul for Hubbard. McCaffrey will be back in a few weeks anyways. He's just not a guy to really get excited for.
--DJ Moore (8-126-0/12) is the clear #1 WR here as I've been talking about going back to the preseason. Whatever connection Darnold had with Robby Anderson (1-8-0/2) doesn't matter now. Anderson is a speedster, downfield threat, and Darnold can barely get the ball past 10 yards. That leads to Moore getting a ton of short passes because it's the safe throw for Darnold. With McCaffrey out for a bit though we might see teams clamp down on Moore knowing it's all Sam throws. Of course, after some of the decision making I watched this weekend in other games, I'm not sure we can trust coaches to make sound, rational decisions and actually come up with a decent gameplan.
--Scratch whatever I said about Brandon Zylstra last week. He's a non-factor. Not sure why he was so involved last week, but it's still Terrace Marshall (4-48-0/5) as the #3 in title and #2 for stats at WR. Just like with Moore, Marshall plays the role of a possession receiver in the short game, and that suits Darnold much better than trying to throw bombs to Anderson. It's not going to be worth much, but it's something if you're desperate.
--Dan Arnold (2-23-0/4) is still not being used nearly enough. He's one of the most talented pass catchers on this team, but it's going to go to waste.
(Literally 2 seconds after I sent this article to RC we found out that Carolina traded Arnold to Jacksonville for CJ Henderson. That's a great, great move by Rhule and the Panthers and yet another completely unbelievable one for Meyer and the Jags.)
--The fact that Carolina was willing to part with Arnold means they are about to give Tommy Tremble (1-30-0/1, 1-7-1) significant time as a receiver. He's fine I guess. I've covered Tremble a lot going back to the draft and you could do a lot worse. He's a decent athlete overall. He's not better than Arnold, but I would trade a TE I'm using in a rotation for a young, stud CB any day of the week. Tremble is now in a 50-50 split with Ian Thomas but Thomas is being used as a blocker almost exclusively.
For what it's worth Tremble is going to get all the receiving work at TE now. It's yet another safe throw for Darnold so it might be somewhat decent. Tremble is a favorite of Rhule's so you know they are going to push him. Being the head coach's pet is often worth more than being talented.
--Brandin Cooks is now the 5th most targeted player in the league through 3 weeks with 32 and the 3rd leading receiver with 322 yards. I don't see why that would stop seeing as teams seem to be completely unaware that Cooks is a good player and Houston's only real option to move the ball. Not sure I've seen a team actually try to cover him yet. He's going to be lacking in TD's this year but should still make a nice ppr option.
--My only other note for Houston is on Davis Mills (19-28 for 168 yards, 1 TD/0 INT). He played quite a bit better than in the preseason where he looked like an abject disaster. He did that while hanging in against a ferocious pass rush. Honestly I was quite impressed watching him work here. Maybe he can do ok after all. This team still sucks though so don't expect any miracles.
IDP Notes
--Carolina lost rookie corner Jaycee Horn for the year and that might have really hurt their chances of being a shutdown defense for the rest of the year, but they smartly went and traded for Jacksonville castoff CJ Henderson first thing this morning. This is a fantastic move and keeps Carolina's hopes alive on defense. Combined with their schedule they could easily still be a top 5 defense in 2021.
Snap Counts of Interest
45 = Terrace Marshall
19 = Brandon Zylstra
37 = Ian Thomas
27 = Dan Arnold
19 = Tommy Tremble
40 = Chuba Hubbard
11 = Royce Freeman
34 = Akins
31 = Ph Brown
21 = D Johnson
19 = Ingram
09 = Lindsay
08 = Burkhead
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Broncos 23, Jaguars 13
The Jaguars, shockingly, struck first in this game…a nice TD pass by Trevor Lawrence had the Jags up 7-0. Up 7-3, later, the Jags went for a field goal to extend the lead in the 2nd-quarter…and then Josh Lambo had an epically bad shank of a kick/miss. Urban Meyer was shaking his head in disbelief.
Then the rain started.
Then the Jags' drops of passes started (rain not helping).
Then the Broncos offense perked up.
Then it was all Broncos until a late Jags KR TD made it semi-respectable.
What’s really weird here is, you’d think this was just the Jags being bad again…and they had their head-shaking moments for sure, but for most of this game the Jags were battling with Denver. This wasn’t easy for the Broncos.
I was, dare I say, impressed with Jacksonville here. They played some good football in spurts…but then some of the bad outweighed and dragged down all the good. Denver wasn’t as strong as I thought here, nor Jacksonville as bad as I felt after watching this on tape mid-week. The tape says, Jacksonville is not a total ‘loser’ team. We’ll get into more of why I think that with the player comments.
Denver is (2-0) and tied with Las Vegas (2-0) for first place in the AFC West. Do I need to type that again to believe it? The Chiefs (1-1) are in last place. I projected Denver to be (3-0) out of the gates, on their way to the playoffs…the first leg of that prediction is about to become true…maybe. The Jets are scrappy, like Jacksonville, and might give Denver a shock if they’re not careful.
Jacksonville isn’t the complete rollover and die team I thought, at least not in this game. We’ll see if they can keep it close at all with Arizona this week.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First things first…this was a stellar game by Courtland Sutton (9-159-0/12). He just took over this game. I’d go so far as to say if Sutton didn’t play in this game, the Broncos would have lost…Sutton was that important.
Sutton is not a random WR2…he’s not the #2 WR behind Jerry Jeudy. He is a dominant, stud #1 WR…and Teddy Bridgewater (26-34 for 328 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) knows it. This connection isn’t going away.
Sutton nearly had a 30+ yard TD to really send his FF scoring into orbit.
-- Trevor Lawrence (14-33 for 118 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) had terrible statistics but I thought he played a pretty good game…and made me pause from making as radical of fun of him as normal.
When you can get well-trained QBs into a 7-on-7 type groove…they can do some work. Lawrence isn’t horrible, but his flaws show when he’s under pressure. He had his bad throws here some, but he’s also let down by receiver drops too much as well.
If Lawrence has time, comfort in the pocket he can be OK. And the Jags have only allowed him to be sacked 2 times this year…2nd-best in the NFL (SF #1 with just 1 sack allowed). This O-Line was beautiful against a pretty good defense. If Lawrence gets this kind of protection and it doesn’t start downpouring in every game, and his receivers cut back on drops…he might have some decent games ahead.
He’s still not generational, but he’s well-schooled…and in the right situation he’s decent. It’s probably too much to ask for him to break through with this team as a rookie. But better days might be ahead if he gets this protection every week.
-- Javonte Williams (13-64-0, 1-10-0/1) is such a pleasure to watch. The guy has star written all over him, but he may be splitting with Melvin Gordon (13-31-02-38-0/2) for many more weeks…maybe all season.
But if Gordon goes down…
-- The Broncos are using two TEs fairly regularly, sometimes together, sometimes rotating, which means two things…
1) Noah Fant (4-33-1/6) has a little bit of a cap on his upside.
2) Albert Okwuegbunam (4-24-0/4) has a pulse in deep roster leagues looking for plausible TE2s. Albert O. is #16 among TEs YTD in catches (7), #18 in PPR PPG so far this season.
-- Two useless Fantasy WRs…
1) D.J. Chark (1-19-0/4)…the wrong WR for Lawrence’s short game. DJC has caught 4 of 16 targets from Trevor this year, and most all the disconnects are not Chark’s fault. Lawrence is not a great downfield thrower…and Trevor’s real connection is with Marvin Jones (6-55-1/11).
2) Laviska Shenault (2-0-0/7) got hurt in this game and might miss Week 3…but he’s so slow in the bubble screen game that he’s becoming a wasted throw. He’ll catch passes all day long, but he just doesn’t do much with them after he catches them.
-- Teddy Bridgewater is taking special off-field interest in K.J. Hamler (1-5-0/3), as mentor…and with Jerry Jeudy out, we saw Teddy take a couple longer shots with KJH…that didn’t connect. I have a feeling (that’s all it is) they will connect on one this week vs. NYJ.
-- Broncos starting ILB Josey Jewell got hurt and is done for the year. Justin Strnad (7 tackles) then took over and looked really good/ready to be the starter. I know the Broncos claimed Micah Kiser from the Rams, but Strnad has been a Fangio favorite since they drafted him. It’s Strnad’s job to lose.
-- Josh Lambo (0/2 FGs) had been one of the best kickers in football for the past 5+ years, but he got hurt last year and this year he looks dreadful. Lambo is 0-fer-3 on FGs so far this season. His 53-yard miss in this game looked like a fan was kicking for a million-dollar prize giveaway stunt or something.
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = JRob
14 = Hyde
53 = Fant
37 = Albert O.
53 = Sutton
51 = Patrick
49 = Hamler
41 = Gordon
28 = Javonte
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Buccaneers 48, Falcons 25 (By Ross Jacobs)
Oh boy do I have a good one for you today. This game was eye-opening to watch for a number of reasons. So much to unpack so let's get to it.
The first thing you might notice is the score. Buccaneers are just rolling right along ready to defend their title...or maybe not.
I watched this game back twice just to make sure I didn't miss anything, and I have to say that the Falcons arguably outplayed the Bucs considering their talent levels. They had a few unlucky breaks early and got in a hole but managed to claw their way back into the game.
Atlanta got the ball back early in the 4th quarter trailing only 28-25 and TB only had 28 because of a lucky interception earlier in the game. The Falcons got backed up on their own 4 after a TB punt took a nice bounce and after the Falcons got stopped they punted it away but it was a crappy punt and Tampa got the ball near the 50. Brady promptly punched in the score and the Bucs were back on top by 10.
There was still time for Atlanta to try and get it back, but Ryan got two drives back to back where a pass got tipped right to a defender for easy pick 6's. And just like that the game was over.
This was NOT a Buccaneers beatdown of a hapless Falcons team. Not even close. The Falcons showed a level of grit and tenacity I haven't seen from the Bucs yet. Tampa seems to have a little of the arrogance the Rams are showing right now. We've got Tom Brady (or Stafford) and we're invincible. I'm not sure which of those teams is more overrated right now.
Don't get me wrong, Tampa is still a very good team. Their defense isn't nearly as menacing as last year though, but the offense is better so it offsets a little. They will be in the mix for #1 seed in the NFC. Right this second though my money would be elsewhere (likely in Arizona).
The Falcons are starting to right their ship. They looked atrocious against the Eagles, but this was a whole different squad or so it appeared. The defense isn't great and seems particularly vulnerable over the middle, but they were flying around aggressively, coming after Brady, hitting hard, and just generally looked much better than last week. The offense is starting to get it's feet under it too, and we'll talk about that more in a minute. After what I saw here I'm wondering if this team might not be closer to 6 or 7 wins than the 2-3-4 we assumed after last week. I want to see another game to be sure of the trends.
Fantasy Notes
--There are a few big-ticket items to cover, but you know I have to start with longtime FFM favorite Cordarrelle Patterson (7-11-1, 5-58-1/7). I am so happy for C-Patt that he's finally getting his long overdue moment in the spotlight. I just wish this had happened years ago. Thank all those genius offensive coordinators who couldn't figure out how to throw him a damn screen pass. Anyways, this was exactly what we were hoping for (and what I honestly did not think would happen). Credit to Arthur Smith, he knows Patterson is his best weapon and he's using him, not just at RB but also at WR and Patterson is delivering.
Don't be scared off by the low ypc here. Patterson was running better than Mike Davis (9-38-0, 7-25-0/7) the entire game. He just had a couple of late carries where Tampa blew up the line and hit him for big losses, and Davis had the opposite thing happen. He was getting stuffed most of the day but had 2 runs for about 10 yards apiece on the last drive after the game was over and Tampa didn't care to boost his average. This is a tough TB run defense and Patterson was easily the more effective runner.
In addition, his passes are a mix of dumpoffs out of the backfield, but Smith is mixing in a few short passes from WR alignments. All of Davis's catches were dumpoffs and about half of them, again, came very late after the game was over.
I watched every snap from these two guys. Don't be afraid that Davis took 46 snaps to Patterson's 24. The official tally doesn't do the game justice. What actually happened was much closer to a 50-50 split than you would assume.
Davis was in the first 2 snaps then Patterson replaced him for 3rd down. That pattern repeated and then things changed. Patterson was the lead for several snaps including a couple at WR. They rotated back and forth for most of the first half but by my count Patterson had a slight lead or was at least even at that point. Then at the very end of the 2nd half, about 5 minutes left to go, suddenly Davis was in on every snap for about 8 or 9 plays. After they came back from halftime Davis was still the sole guy in for about a half dozen plays before Patterson returned to the game and they began rotating again. I haven't seen anything on a Patterson injury, so this is pure speculation, but based on the pattern I suspect maybe Patterson got shaken up for a period of time there and then was ok'ed to come back in 100%. Davis also took a handful of snaps by himself on the last drive of the game before Atlanta shifted to their backups and just ran the clock out themselves. If I'm correct about the Patterson injury scare then this is basically a 50-50 split already.
What I do know is that Patterson is by far the more effective and dangerous of the two. He scored 2 TD's here and had shots at a couple of others. At one point he caught a pass in the flats, broke two tackles, and looked like he'd have a nice 30 yard receiving TD but it was called back after he barely tapped his toe on the sideline. Not long after he lined up inside the 10 as a wildcat QB but fumbled the snap and took a loss. Ridley would score soon after. Patterson was getting far more looks inside the 5-10 yard line than Davis and that is leading to more scores.
His TD reception was a slick one-handed catch on a poorly thrown ball. His TD run was a toss play where he juked a safety out of his shoes. He even had a throwback screen on the left sideline where he broke a few tackles and took off down the field. All in all, there was a very concerted effort to get Patterson the ball, and it should be noted that from the very first kickoff Tampa squib/pooch kicked the ball to keep it away from Patterson on the return. They knew he was a threat and were trying to stop him. This is not a fad. This is not going away. Patterson is the top threat on this team right now, a possible RB1.5 threat, and if Davis goes down with injury it could be game on. Just note, he won't be the top threat for long because...
--Kyle Pitts (5-73-0/6) is so damn good it's unreal. He is essentially Calvin Johnson who occasionally comes in to block. He led the team in receiving here but you would never have known it from watching the game. He flashed only once after he juked his defender off the snap like a WR, broke over the middle, and had to reach way behind him to haul in the catch one-handed, never broke stride and took off between two defenders who had an angle on him. It was a surreal play, and one we're going to start seeing more and more...eventually...
You see, the one problem with Pitts right now is that he is not remotely being featured. He's playing a huge number of snaps, and the routes he was running were a little more varied and creative than last week, but I think Smith is still trying to manage him, hasn't taken off the training wheels just yet. The good news is that Pitts is able to lead this team in receiving while essentially being the 4th or 5th target right now. But it looks like they are slowly building up to unleashing him fully, and I think that day comes sooner rather than later. It's kind of like with Justin Jefferson last year. Through 2 games in 2020 he had 5 catches for 70 yards, and then in week 3 he exploded. That may be what we're about to see happen. Not saying it will for sure be week 3, but I do believe that explosion is coming.
Pitts is a beast, as good as advertised. Just try to remain patient. I know we all want our shiny new toys to immediately be weapons of mass destruction, but things rarely work out like that. This bet is going to pay off.
--Coming into this rewatch I was concerned about one thing for Pitts...Matt Ryan (35-46 for 300 yards, 2 TD/3 INT). He looked terrible last week and then you see his line this week and think it's more of the same. Well I'm happy to report that Ryan is mostly fine, he hasn't suddenly become terrible at football. He's not great, that's for sure, but this was a heavy pressure defense coming against his leaky offensive line, and he played a pretty smart, controlled game and had his team in contention. The three interceptions? All flukes. Literally all three were passes that were tipped at the line by TB defenders that came through the line essentially unblocked and the ball bounced straight up in the air to a Buccaneer all three times. Very unlucky but not Ryan's fault.
It does look like Ryan has lost a little arm strength though. He tossed a deep pass to a wide open Ridley once that floated in the air so long it gave Tampa time to close the gap and knock the ball loose. It's not a huge issue, just something to be aware of. The TD's might be a little harder to come by this year and that might keep Pitts as just the overall TE 4-5 but it's splitting hairs. Ridley is the one that's in trouble.
Speaking of Calvin Ridley (7-63-1/10) if you have him I'd sell now off a decent game. He's still got name value from last year, so don't sell him for pennies, but I'd try to turn him into something useful before you're left holding a WR2. That's all he is at this point. He'll still get a good number of targets this year, but he is not remotely the top guy for this new staff. Patterson is the weapon right now and will be the sidekick to Pitts very soon, they still want Davis to get a good number of carries, and that leaves Ridley as the 3rd or 4th option to go along with Ryan's weakening arm. Not a recipe for great fantasy success.
The only other notable fantasy “maybe” for Atlanta was Russell Gage (5-28-0/7) but you could do better. This isn't the high flying Falcons passing offense of the past few years. The volume is lower (although higher here because of the nature of the game) and the efficiency is lower. Gage also got hurt during the game and is out for week 3 which opens up more opportunity in the short term for Olamide Zaccheaus (2-22-0/4) but everything I said about Gage applies to him too.
--Ok 1500 words just on Atlanta's offense, so what do I have for Tampa Bay?
Not much, sorry. We know what these guys are. It's the Tom Brady show (24-36 for 276, 5 TD/0 INT) and for good reason. He looks as good as I've seen him in years. His arm is strong (he overthrew Evans on a 50 yard bomb...at 1000 years old...), he's accurate, making good decisions, I don't know, the guy must have sold his soul at this point. I don't know how else to explain it. Just be aware that he's getting a lot of TD's per attempt right now and that probably (probably) won't hold. You'd think at some point he won't have so many short fields or someone will score a rushing TD, but you never know when you're messing with the supernatural...
--Brady doesn't have a top target. Mike Evans (5-75-2/9) popped as expected after his poor outing last week. He looks fine and just missed on another 50 yard catch. Chris Godwin (4-62-1/5) is the co-#1 and the preferred short/medium depth target. Brady is going to feed the good matchups so these guys might have some ups and downs but both should be WR1.5's.
Antonio Brown (1-17-0/3) isn't the lead like we assumed. I was worried that he wasn't on the field week 1 for 2-WR sets, and now I'm sure of it. He's a good option and one Brady will exploit from time to time, but he's just a tick behind the other two in terms of involvement. He came up positive for COVID the middle of this week so he's probably a long shot to play Sunday. Unfortunate.
--Rob Gronkowski (4-39-2/5) is killing it for fantasy right now, but I'd be cautious if you expect that to continue. He doesn't look great honestly, not bad, but definitely a bit slower than he did a few years ago. He's lumbering a bit. He's also not a priority read for Brady. So far he's just been an open option as defenses are focused on stopping the 3 very good WR's. Gronk should have good TD's numbers moving forward as he's a great option in the redzone, but don't expect huge target/catch/yardage counts. Those days are long gone. Think of him more like 2020 Robert Tonyan.
--The two RB's are still rotating every other series in a split. Ronald Jones (6-27-0, 1-9-0/3) started the game and Leonard Fournette (11-52-0, 4-24-0/4) took the second series and so on and so forth. Fournette did end up taking a few more carries late as they tried to salt away the game and he gets a little bit more passing game work than Jones, so if you must have one you want Fournette. If either goes down with injury this suddenly gets a little more intriguing though and you might have a RB1.5 on your hands.
IDP Notes
--Nothing unexpected happened here other than Mike Edwards (4 tackles, 3 pd, 2 INT, 2 TD's) scoring two touchdowns. That will never happen again. He was just in the right place at the right time and the ball bounced right to him. No breakout here.
--As I've been warning for a year and a half now, Devin White (6 tackles) is struggling a little bit, both in real life and fantasy, now that the pieces around him aren't so strong. He's great when he gets other players to eat up blocks for him while he runs free to the play but not so good when he has to navigate traffic and do something himself. Lavonte David (8 tackles) is less heralded and always overlooked to some degree, but he's the better player.
--Atlanta's top corner AJ Terrell (2 tackles, 2 pd) got hurt mid/late game and has been ruled out against the Giants. It's another blow to an already shaky secondary. Might help Daniel Jones have another decent fantasy day.
Snap Counts of Interest
60 = Calvin Ridley
57 = Kyle Pitts
30 = Hayden Hurst
46 = Mike Davis
24 = Cordarrelle Patterson
56 = Chris Godwin
46 = Mike Evans
28 = Antonio Brown
51 = Rob Gronkowski
21 = Cam Brate
31 = Leonard Fournette
26 = Ronald Jones
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Titans 33, Seahawks 30 in OT
I thought this re-watch was going to be standard fare -- a lot of Derrick Henry battling a lot of Russell Wilson, and the Henry side snuck it out in the end. But I found, after the study/watch, that I have a good collection of notes to discuss from this contest.
As for the game itself, the Seahawks had everything go right in the 1st-half and Tennessee had about everything go wrong…from penalties to drops to turnovers to broken coverages…and Seattle took a commanding 24-9 lead at the half. While watching live, I just mentally wrote this game off at the half and assumed the Titans stink and would lose.
The Titans don’t stink.
The Titans were the better or equal team here, and the fact that they overcame a 15-point deficit at the half, at Seattle, after getting blown out by Arizona last week – kudos to this team, and to Mike Vrabel (yeah, I said it).
The Titans are CLEARLY the best team in the AFC South. Their offense is really good…but it’s their defense that has gotten better which is the key. When you consider how bad the rest of the AFC South is – the Titans may be a shock contender for an AFC #1 seed and be a very tough out with Derrick Henry and friends.
The fans are down on Tennessee because the analysts are, because the analysts got mad that Tennessee got ripped by Arizona Week 1 – but when you live with the FFM knowledge that Arizona is fantastic and a possible NFC title winner…then that loss isn’t so bad. The Titans have faced two MVP candidate QBs Weeks 1-2. Now comes Eason-Z.Wilson-Trevor the next 3 weeks…before a gauntlet BUF-KC Weeks 6-7…and then it’s off to the races from there. The Titans are going 11+ wins if they can sweep the AFC South.
Seattle is now (1-1) and not as good as Arizona…so a wild card is as likely as winning the division.
The Titans are so unlucky to have their first two games against the two best teams in the league's 1st/2nd toughest division (NFC West). We need to use that knowledge to our advantage on how to play Tennessee things from here.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Julio Jones (6-128-0/8) is still good. Breaking news. Weird, but it kinda is breaking news.
I get the feeling we’ve all just accepted that Julio is getting older and has moved to unsexy pass game Tennessee…he’s being put out to pasture to play out the final year of his contract.
I would like you to consider:
1) He’s working hard in Tennessee. He’s getting chippy/trying to bully corners. He’s fighting for extra yards. He’s not fading off, he’s still fighting…maybe more energized than I’ve seen him in a year or two.
2) He’s not the speedster he used to be, but he’s still plenty fast…getting open…making catches…smartly boxing out small CBs and making his plays. He’s gone from a D.K. Metcalf type receiver to a Michael Thomas one – the reliable #1 WR worker.
3) Ryan Tannehill 2021 is exponentially better than Matt Ryan 2019-2020 (and 2021). Anyone who thinks Julio went to a worse place for production…you’re wrong.
4) Julio had his hands on a TD Week 1, but couldn’t bring it in. He also had a sweet TD catch that was controversially overturned for being out of bounds but it looked like he was good to me.
If Julio had scored a TD in each game the last two weeks, his numbers would be tracking WR1.5 right now…not the WR3-4 FF scoring he is YTD at the moment.
I think Julio Jones is a crafty ‘buy low’ from an owner who is writing Julio off. If your team is really good/going for the title…you might could add this veteran cheaper than you think. Don’t pay full price or any price…this is a try and steal stealthily moment.
-- A.J. Brown (3-43-0/9) had a rough game…3 catches on 9 targets and 1-2 drops. It looked worse and was portrayed worse in the media than it was. I’m not thinking there is a hands issue. He doesn’t look as fast/explosive as last year, but he did have double knee clean-up surgery in January.
-- Derrick Henry (35-182-3, 6-55-0/6) caught 6 passes in this game!
I was going to joke about how that’s more catches than in his last X games or all of last season…because, don’t you know Henry can’t catch?
Well, did you know Henry has 2 or more catches in a game in six of his last 9 games (incl. playoffs)? In those last 9 games, he has 19 catches…2.1 per game. 19 catches off 22 targets…a catch rate of 86.4%.
Who the hell keeps saying he can’t catch the ball (I’m guilty as charged of just running with an old narrative)? He looked really good catching it here.
If Henry is going 2-3 catches a game instead of 0-1…you know what that means? He is the true #1 asset in all of FF – not always-hurt Christian McCaffrey.
If we were redrafting now/today, you would not take CMC…you would take Derrick Henry…or you should.
“You know all those carries are gonna catch up with Henry!” *As Christian McCaffrey gets hurt in an early season game again on TNF Week 3 and will miss several weeks*
-- Another TEN buy low candidate – Ryan Tannehill (27-40 for 347 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 4-27-0). His crime? Not having a TD pass this game…and only 1 TD pass all season.
He was so close to two passing TDs in this game, minimum. One of them the Julio reversal BS. And, again, don’t fault him for not producing huge against Arizona’s defense.
Tannehill is always distrusted, always undervalued…by me and most everyone.
Overlooking Tannehill as a nice 2nd QB emergency option and always assuming Derrick Henry is going to get hurt – two massive Tennessee-mistakes we FF-make over and over and over again.
-- D.K. Metcalf (6-53-0/11) is transforming, but not sure what it means for FF output…but it could be great.
History lesson…
1) DKM fell in his NFL Draft because he had weak output his final year of college. Why did he? Because SEC corners and D-Cs saw that all he did was run deep routes…so they all played him to go deep, and he was rarely open for his bad QB.
2) DKM splashed in the NFL because all the millionaire coordinators who watch tape 20+ hours a day had no idea that the SEC had figured out how to neutralize Metcalf. They deployed CBs up in Metcalf’s face, and then DK just batted them away and sprinted past them deep for easy, long TDs over and over.
3) Some D-C finally figured it out in 2020 2nd-half, then the others started to copy, and thus Metcalf’s output fell off a table to end the season.
4) 2021…Seattle is adjusting…
I’ve never seen Metcalf run shorter routes in a game as much as he did here. He was like Michael Thomas (or like Julio on the other side of the field) in this game working the interior – with the added bonus that once he catches it, no one can tackle him. It’s opening up a whole new world of possibilities for DKM.
Two issues…
1) Will Seattle keep up running Metcalf on shorter routes?
2) Will DKM flop doing it? He is very clunky running routes and catching basic passes, sometimes. Will Seattle persist through it or change back to making him a deep ball guy again?
We’ll see but watching him catch a short pass with 10-yards of space because DBs are playing way back off him for the deep route…and then him running over people after the catch like he’s the WR version of Derrick Henry (not joking). It’s a real weapon that could emerge, and then he becomes a more dangerous NFL and FF WR when teams can’t just play him to run deep 95-99% of the time.
-- Freddie Swain (5-95-1/5) was left wide open on a play in the 2nd-half and Russ hit him for a 68-yard TD. Nothing emerging here…it was just a moment. When Dee Eskridge is back, Swain goes back to a #4 WR.
-- Let the Gerald Everett (1-3-0/2) excitement…die.
OH, they’re going to use him in so many creative ways! So far, two games, 3 targets for 23 yards total. WOW! What creativity!!
-- MyCole Pruitt (3-43-0/3) got better treatment by the Titans than Everett did by Seattle…for millions of dollars less contract. Pruitt is good, and he was a force when they called upon him here. He played a heavy number of snaps and with Anthony Firkser out he might get some surprising numbers ahead.
I’ve always been a fan. He’s always underutilized but makes catches when they go to him.
-- You want more Titans undervalued things? How about the Titans-DST?
This isn’t a bad unit…not great, but not bad. Their crime is facing Kyler-Russ the first two weeks. They look pretty decent to me, not great, but not the joke everyone thinks. Down 24-9 at the half, off of some fluky circumstances…they shut the door on Seattle 2nd-half to get the comeback win.
They might be a decent option in a decent matchup…like vs. TEN with Brett Hundley starting.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Everett
26 = Dissly
64 = Swaim
55 = M Pruitt
21 = Tommy Hudson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Rams 27, Colts 24
The Rams were definitely the better team, not by a ton…but they played better and seemed to flip a switch when needed. On the other hand, the Rams played very lackadaisical here.
My wild theory with little to substantiate: There is such an arrogance happening with the Rams. Sean McVay is running his mouth about Matt Stafford, telling long stories about how he met and fell in love with Stafford meeting with him in Cabo in the offseason…and how connected they are and think about football the same. It’s worse than my young-and-in-love son talking about his new girlfriend now recently turned fiancée.
It all irritates me (the Stafford part, not my son…he has true love) and that’s not why (I hope it’s not why) I think I see some things here – it just looks like they think that as long as they got Stafford + McVay that nothing else matters, everything is fine. I see several concerns the first two weeks. They’ve played decent but weaker teams (CHI and then Indy dealing with injuries), and through two games the Rams have looked sharp at times, but empty at others and the weaker opponents are moving the ball against them and hanging in these games longer than they should. This Indy game was tied deep into the 4th-quarter.
The Rams were holding the lead all game, the Colts scurried back into it and then lost their QB at the worst time, and the Rams eventually won…but then you look and see that the time of possession favored Indy…both teams had similar yards, while the Colts converted more 3rd-downs and rushed for more yards. The game stats favored with a lean to the Colts here.
In fact, the Colts drove right down the field to goal-to-go in the 1st-quarter…twice…and walked away with 0 points on ridiculously bad plays called by Frank Reich/executed poorly by Carson Wentz on ‘going for it’ 4th-down and goals to go.
The Rams are winning…but the opponents have been shooting themselves in the foot to some degree – it hasn’t been awesome Rams defense or consistent control of the opponents, to my eyes. The Rams might get a huge rude awakening against Tampa Bay this week.
My grand point being…something just seems off with the Rams. That people think they are top 5 NFL great and Super Bowl contenders, but this team looks about the same/worse than last year’s team. I’ll say worse because the defense is nothing like last year’s unit, so far.
The Colts are now (0-2) and playing for their lives against (1-1) Tennessee Week 3…likely with Jacob Eason at the helm. The season may already be over for the Colts.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Jacob Eason (2-5 for 25 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) came in for Carson Wentz (20-31 for 247 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) and tried to lead a 2-minute drill to tie/win but was picked on his 2nd throw and that kinda iced it. He did get one more shot with 0:24 left but with no timeouts and a whole field to go it was useless.
Wentz sprained both of his ankles and left the game…something only Wentz could do. Wentz looks scrappy between the 20s but craps the bed on making things happen near the red zone – the 5th worst offense in the red zone to start the season. When the money is on the line…you don’t want the ball in Wentz’s hands. Signs of 2020 Wentz are rearing their head.
Week 3, Eason will likely start. He has a cannon for an arm and can make nice, preplanned throws, but if he needs to improvise or carry a team…you got problems. With any pressure he’ll throw it into trouble and get picked. Keep him clean and simple, and he’ll look terrific on throws.
-- Matt Stafford (19-30 for 278 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is only throwing/looking good throwing to Cooper Kupp (9-163-2/11). They are beyond connected…and all the other options are FF-screwed because of it (Higbee, Woods, DJax). Essentially half of Stafford’s completions were to Kupp in this game…47% of the completions, 58% of the passing yards, 100% of the passing TDs.
And because NFL coaches are geniuses, the Colts staff just watched this unfolding and never adjusted so Stafford kept burning them with it. I’m going to be very interested in seeing If Tampa Bay locks down Kupp…if Stafford will have an answer, because he looks more erratic/uncomfortable throwing anywhere else.
-- Example…just when you think Tyler Higbee (1-8-0/1) might be being used as a weapon after a solid Week 1, he gets one whole target Week 2…in a back-and-forth game.
-- The big news from this game was the Darrell Henderson (13-53-1, 3-29-0/5) went down with a rib injury late and that sprung the first real look at Sony Michel (10-46-0).
My take on the two RBs:
I’ve watched two games with DH as the lead in 2021, and he’s been fine…but you keep waiting to see that ultra-fast 40-time guy, and it just isn’t there. He’s totally fine. A tough runner with solid speed, but I don’t see that juice we all thought he had. He looked better, to my eyes, last year when he first broke out.
Honestly, Sony Michel came in and looked very quick…very fresh…and a better interior runner.
Henderson’s injury has opened the door/gotten Michel a look…and he may live to regret it. You don’t have to give Sean McVay much reason to move away from DHendo, whom he hates.
My guess is that Henderson will not play this week due to the rib, and the Michel door will be open – now it’s a tough draw to go up against Tampa Bay, but if he succeeds against a tough TB run defense…he’ll be in a split with DH at a minimum…and then soon to be the main back, whatever that means in a split. Possibly, Michel will be the Cam Akers replacement McVay was praying for.
-- Speaking of clusters in a backfield…
Jonathan Taylor (15-51-0, 1-2-0/1) continues to be underutilized. He was also halted on goal line TD events 4-5 times in this game.
What’s the deal? Well…
First, the Colts have the most overrated ‘good’ O-Line in the NFL. Everyone talks about how great they are, but the results have been meh for two years now…despite having an ace RB prospect in their midst.
Also, when Taylor is in…the defense is keying more on Taylor because they don’t fear Wentz.
And then, often, Frank Reich gets Marlon Mack (5-16-0, 0-0-0/1) happy and suddenly we see Mack-Hines in WAY too much. Taylor played 30 snaps, touched the ball 16 times…when JT is in it’s a safe bet for the defense that it’s where the ball is going.
Taylor is headed to be an RB1.5-2 in 2021 with eternal top five RB1 hopes if he cashes a TD every week -- and he’s getting a ton of goal line chances, but not converting...another strike against that O-Line.. Jacob Eason starting at QB will not help matters.
-- Michael Pittman (8-123-0/12) broke out here. He had his way with the Rams secondary. He looked terrific.
The odd thing was…Jalen Ramsey was rarely on him. I saw Ramsey covering TEs…RBs…no one…sometimes Strachan or Pascal…as Pittman just carved up single and double coverage. Is Ramsey no longer a thing? It was very bizarre watching Pittman go off and Ramsey never adjusting over. It's game-on with Pittman, but maybe not as much with Eason at QB. Let Pittman flop (if) with Eason Week 3, then we'll circle back looking to buy lower if desired.
Mike Strachan (0-0-0/1) didn’t start but played the 3rd-most snaps among Colts WRs. I did see Ramsey on him more than Pittman. The Colts have no plan for Strachan right now. Carson Wentz is a bottom 10 NFL starting QB who has now locked onto Pittman – so the Strachan story is probably on hold until 2022 (unless Pittman goes down), hopefully with new coaches and new QB in 2022, but I doubt it. Probably 2023 is the hope.
-- The Rams-DST has faced Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz, and they did not dominate either…and all total, the Rams are #20 in yards allowed but a solid #8 in PPG allowed among NFL defenses through two games. This Rams defense has not looked like the dominant unit they were in 2020. With D-C Brandon Staley now coaching the Chargers…it may have had a much bigger impact than the team thought.
If Tampa Bay goes and drops 30+ points on the Rams defender in Week 3…the media is going to flip out on this defense/McVay.
Brady then Kyler then Russell Wilson the next three weeks…I’m not sure they’re an FF-start the next 3 weeks.
NYG-DET-HOU-TEN-SF Weeks 6-10 looks more promising but not as much if the Rams are just a mediocre/good defense now.
Rams DT Sebastian Joseph-Day (9 tackles, 1.0 sacks) went nuts in this game…not a good sign for the vaunted Indy O-Line. I don’t think it’s a SJB IDP breakout
Denver claimed 2020 starting ILB Micah Kiser off the LAR practice squad this week – smart move by Denver. Kiser could be the Broncos starter at ILB in a few weeks, but Justin Strnad may just keep that job and flourish.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = Pascal
60 = Pittman
34 = Strachan
26 = Dulin
30 = Taylor
25 = Hines
13 = Mack
40 = Henderson
16 = Michel
03 = Funk
03 = DeSean Jackson