- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Cowboys 43, Falcons 3
Don't try to read too much into this game. The two teams battled closely for about a quarter, and then the better team took over and the game was quickly out of hand. The Cowboys were about to take a 28-3 lead into halftime when they blocked a punt for a TD that effectively ended the game on the spot. If Atlanta was harboring any hopes of a comeback that play ended them.
The Falcons put their starters out for a bit after halftime, but the Cowboys scored again which prompted Arthur Smith to wisely pull most of his starters. The second half was the 2nd team offenses and defenses scuffling around trying to get the game over faster. That's why you can't take most of these numbers seriously. It was a completely unbalanced game, not unlike what happened to the Cowboys last week against Denver.
We already knew Dallas was one of the better NFC teams. How good they are is still up for debate. Personally, I think they are still battling the Packers and Bucs for the title of 2nd best NFC team. RC thinks the Packers are better than either of those two and in the mix with Arizona for best team. Regardless, this blowout doesn't sway my opinion on Dallas either way. I want to see how they do against better teams first. This team is headed for 13 or 14 wins most likely and a top 3 seed in the NFC. Their January 2nd game against the Cardinals could have huge implications for the final seeding. Win that and they might snag the top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Falcons fall to 4-5 and things are looking grim the rest of the year. They should finish somewhere around 6 wins at best. This just isn't a good team. They've been fortunate to play a few of the weakest teams in the league and that is pushing their record to where it is. This team hasn't been above .500 since 2017, strange as that sounds. In my mind I always want to think of the Falcons as a decent but not great team, but the reality is they have been very poor for years now and are on the cusp of falling in with the dregs of the NFL, teams like the Jets and Jaguars.
Fantasy Notes
--Again, you can't take anything very seriously from this game due to its nature. Tony Pollard (11-42-0, 6-56-0/7) is arguably the best backup RB in the league and a top 5 guy if Elliott ever gets hurt. He's been more involved than ever this year, but the high number of touches here was solely because of the blowout. He wasn't taking nearly as many carries until the starters got pulled.
--Amari Cooper (4-54-0/4) just isn't bouncing back. He's another random WR3 until we see some signs of a reversal.
--Another Cowboy that strangely disappeared from the game plan is Dalton Schultz (1-14-0/2), but unlike Amari I believe that is just a one week blip. He had 5 and 7 targets the two games before this one but only managed to pull in 2 catches on those 7 targets against the Vikings excellent linebackers. This game just got out of hand so fast that Dallas didn't need him to move the chains like usual. I expect him to bounce back in a big way against the Chiefs. In my opinion you should be looking to buy him off this dip.
--Kyle Pitts (4-60-0/7) had a “down” game, but I want to put some context to this and explain why I think he's going to finish strong as a top 3 TE the rest of the year. One Atlanta's first couple of drives he was the man. He was the guy Ryan was going to every play, and he was wide open all day. After the initial burst the game was essentially over already and Ryan was struggling just to complete a pass into prevent coverage. Even later in the game when Ryan threw a terrible interception right into Trevon Diggs's hands, the throw was targeted to Pitts and he was absolutely wide open on the supposed best corner in the league.
Pitts still isn't running any crazy routes or doing anything particularly creative, but he is consistently getting open against the top coverage of opposing defenses. There was some concern that he would struggle as the top option with Calvin Ridley out, but I saw no signs of that here. Things just got out of hand too quickly. If the game had proceeded like normal, Pitts would have easily gone over 100 yards here.
4 catches for 60 yards doesn't sound like much, but when you consider that Ryan only completed 9 passes for 117 yards it suddenly seems much more impressive. And obviously Ryan won't be held down nearly this bad most weeks despite his diminishing skills. Pitts was about 50% of the receiving production here, but even if he drops to only 30% he'll still be putting up excellent numbers if Ryan bounces back to his 252 yard per game season average.
On the year Pitts already has 606 yards on 40 catches for a ridiculous 15.2 ypc average as a TE. He's going over 1000 yards easily. The only thing holding him back so far is his 1 TD, but that number should regress a little. Even just 3-4 TD's over the remaining schedule would do a lot to bump his numbers. If he keeps up his current pace of catches and yards but adds in just 3 TD's, then we're looking at about 13.5 ppg the rest of the year. He's TE6 in scoring and 8th in ppg at the moment, but 13.5 would put him in 3rd behind Kelce and Andrews. It's also entirely possible that he continues to get better as the season goes on, grabs a larger share of the passing game, and finishes even higher.
I know it's been an up and down year for Pitts so far, but I love what I'm seeing from him and I think things are just going to get better. He's ready to jump into the discussion for best TE in the league already.
--I was shocked to see Wayne Gallman (15-55-0, 1-21-0/2) lead the RB touches by such a huge margin because I didn't remember seeing him much in the live watch. Is this a trend to jump on? Not even close. I watched the backfield closely my second time looking at the game, and it's clear what happened.
Davis and Patterson were out there doing their thing as usual, but then the game got out of hand, Patterson got hurt, and they abandoned the run in the 2nd quarter. After the first drive of the second half Arthur Smith threw in the towel and pulled Davis from the game along with most of the starters. Gallman came in to run the clock out. The only way Gallman takes significant carries is if Patterson is out this week, but RC thinks Patterson will play. Even if Patterson is out, it's still going to be a 60/40 split at best for Gallman with Davis as the lead. There are better streaming options available.
--Russell Gage put up a big fat zero on only 3 targets? Am I worried? Nope, for the same reason as I don't like Gallman. The game got crazy and Gage got pulled with the other starters fairly early. He should be fine most weeks, but you can't expect too much against top coverage and with Ryan at QB. He's a desperation WR4 right now.
--Likewise, don't sweat Patterson so long as he's healthy. Nothing has changed about his role.
IDP Notes
--I swear this Trevon Diggs (2 tackles, 1 INT) nonsense is getting out of hand. I'm sorry, but I've seen him get beat too often by some very average receivers this year, and most of his INT's have been thrown literally right to him. It's not like he's making all these crazy pass breakups. Pitts smoked him all game, but Ryan threw the ball two feet behind him and high right into Digg's hands. Diggs is on the short list for Defensive MVP, but I don't believe he even belongs on the list. He's been pretty good but not even the best corner in the league, much less the best defensive player.
--The runaway favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year, Micah Parsons (6 tackles, 1 sack) absolutely deserves it though. I wasn't too impressed early in the year, but he just gets better and better every week. Great scouting job by RC and great bet opportunity sleuthing by Chris Bilello.
--If you don't already know who he is, I want to introduce you to Foyesade Oluokun (14 tackles in only 78% of the defensive snaps), the NFL's 3rd leading tackler with 100 already in 9 games (11.1/g). In his past four games, Oluokun has had 13+ tackles three times with an average of 13/g. He's only been under 8 tackles one time this year and has gone 9+ in all but two games. The man is a tackling machine, one of the best in the league.
Snap Counts of Interest
35 = Russell Gage
31 = Tajae Sharpe
23 = Olamide Zaccheaus
33 = Kyle Pitts
23 = Hayden Hurst
23 = Wayne Gallman
20 = Mike Davis
51 = Amari Cooper
41 = Michael Gallup
32 = CeeDee Lamb
51 = Dalton Schultz
36 = Sean McKeon
38 = Ezekiel Elliott
32 = Tony Pollard
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Panthers 34, Cardinals 10
Wow. Well, I would say ‘This is what you get when you have to roll with Colt McCoy’, but the Panthers just walloped the formerly-known-as ‘the best team in the NFL’ with P.J. Walker having his best game of his life.
This game makes (along with the emergence of Mike White and all the other emergency-start QBs who come and win/beat down opponents) makes me wonder if the NFL is not turning into a real passing league as much as it’s just in a 1970s mindset and/or a West Coast simplicity of run the ball and play good defense, as their mediocre QBs work a safe screen pass game around that desire.
When you play ‘small ball’ you don’t need Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes…those guys scare most NFL head coaches because they might throw an interception. The fact that they throw 4-5 TDs passes a game and lead their teams to all the Super Bowls…that doesn’t matter in the wake of that bad interception they once threw that one time (trying to make a play/win games). Most NFL head coaches want to play ball control, screen pass games for safety…and really they want to win via ‘out-toughing’ the other team…with their heads fully up the ass of their own monstrous playbook. NFL head and assistant coaches are usually all former players who were grinders, and they coach from that perspective – they hate flashy and risky, they covet ‘sound’ football to outsmart their opponents, because they weren’t talented/flashy players themselves, they were the outwork, out-tough, outsmart to make up for the lack of athletic skills.
When I wanted to start opening positions in Bitcoin a year+ ago, because I thought it had a chance to be the world currency at some point, a hedge against inflation…my wife said: “I wouldn’t buy that it’s too scary; what even is it?” My wife is a ‘bury your extra shillings in a Mason jar in the backyard’ kinda person because money and risk scares her and she’s not good with numbers. It’s all a blur. That’s not a crime…it’s just a reality. She didn’t want to go school for finance, she wanted to be a teacher from age five...and eventually graduated college to be a lower school teacher. On the other hand, I should’ve been an accountant (but was too lazy as a youngster to do excessive homework needed), and I ended up in corporate financial management because I was very good with numbers and they identified it in me when I was a young pup in the system. When it comes to my money, I’m a ‘Let me learn about new things and see if I can put money to work to grow, knowing you have the risk of loss as well’. Money, numbers don’t scare me – culinary arts and home repair scare me (among many other things)…and my mindset is to ‘go for it’ on investments I’ve researched.
With my wife’s plan…she’ll never lose, so she can’t really be criticized, in her mind. She didn’t lose. And when the market tanks, it’s actually a great strategy. However, with my style/plan if we lose ground, the wife will complain about it…so, there used to be a thought by me to not have the nagging criticism come into play and just take the safe route out to avoid the hassle. There are advantages to playing it safe when real results and mass criticism is on the line. Just don’t lose (the anti-Al Davis story) tends to feel like a non-critiqued way to live. NFL head coaches gravitate towards ‘don’t lose’…it’s human nature, and 2x the nature of football coaches. If it wasn’t, there would be WAY more going for two and going for 4th-downs then there is, and just think it’s the wild wild west of that today vs. 5 years ago.
What do coaches always talk about? Turnovers and penalties. They talk about mistakes they never embrace opportunities, especially if they took a shot and failed…they don’t take pride in it and to be honest…they hide and say to themselves I’ll never do that again.
I’m not saying one investing or coaching style is absolutely right or wrong…they can both be right or wrong depending upon the era. Stock Market crashes…you’re glad you had the Mason jar. Take a lot of risk and lose, you feel like crap. I say all this to climb into the mind of the NFL head coach/assistant coaches coming up – they are by and large people who are short sighted, concerned about the appearance of ‘toughness’, play to not-lose, play to not get criticized, play to hope to be able to have a chance to win in the final few minutes. They don’t play to win…except the first drive of games, where they spill their one cool new play they drew up for the week and they can't wait to show it as fast as possible, then never use it again the rest of the game.
I’m not sure how I went down this bunny trail, but you can apply this logic to the football GMs. Why do you think none of them make any real trades or a lot of trades? They’re afraid. Doing nothing escapes the most criticism by the media, fans, and themselves internally.
This game was a shining example of most of the NFL mindset… Two teams with shitty quarterbacks tried to dink and dunk against good defenses and the one team that committed turnovers lost all the momentum and didn't have any gear to mount a comeback, so they just rolled over and lost.
Colt McCoy isn’t any better or worse than P.J. Walker, and the Arizona defense is just as good as the Carolina defense. But McCoy had the triple crown of head coaches worst nightmare to start a game…
1st-series = sack, fumbled, gave the ball to Carolina deep in the red zone…quick TD right after.
2nd-series = Arizona has 4th & a long 1 from their own 40, they go for it…with their GREAT runner Colt McCoy, who was so bad on this play that he lost yardage on a 4th & 1 surge play…Carolina capitalizes and scores another short field TD.
3rd-series = Arizona drives down, and the GREAT Colt McCoy scrambles and throws a pass 10-yards over the head of the intended receiver downfield, and it goes right to a deep safety who fielded it like a punt, drive killed. Carolina then drives down, Walker throws a pick, but the defender let the grip loose falling to the ground and it becomes an incompletion and Carolina retains for a FG. It was 17-0 Carolina in a blink and all that really happened was Colt McCoy gave the game away to Carolina every series. It wasn’t the Arizona defense sucks.
It was 31-3 going into the 4th-quarter, Carolina. But, honestly, this wasn’t Carolina 31-3 better than Arizona…it was just the game of playing it safe backfired quickly for Arizona, and they couldn’t dig out of the hole they put themselves in. If fully healthy Kyler were here…totally different outcome.
Arizona is now (8-2), and no one should take away anything from this game other than…it unluckily got out of hand early and that was that, and Colt McCoy is to blame. If healthy Kyler is back Week 11, they will beat Seattle and be fine. I just think Kyler will be out again this week (the Rams losing again helps the decision), and then you just hope McCoy can play safe and keep you in it. Arizona will win 12-13 games and win the NFC West just fine. The Rams are not in Arizona’s class, with Kyler playing.
It’s a huge win for Carolina, now (5-5) with three very winnable games ahead: WSH, at MIA, bye, ATL. If they can sweep that group, they then get crushed by the ending schedule of at BUF, TB, at NO, at TB. They might get to 9 wins if they can win their next three to get to 8 wins. If they lose one of the next three, they aren’t likely hitting 9 wins, and thus no playoffs. We project 7-8 wins, but 9 possible.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The biggest news item/storyline from this game was the return of Cam Newton (3-4 for 8 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-14-1)…rushed for a TD, threw for a TD…but more importantly, gave the Panthers team a big shot in the arm. His presence boosted the team as much as Colt McCoy handing them the game did. Players like Cam, the person…and they could care less about Sam Darnold.
Acquiring Sam Darnold was probably the single stupidest move of the 2021 NFL season. Simply signing Cam Newton could be one of the best moves of 2021, and I don’t like Cam as a QB…but this was a signal to the franchise that you’re actually trying to win.
It’s an obvious take, but to go from cutting Cam to going all-in on Teddy, to dumping Teddy for Darnold and failing with that to now get back to Cam to be a savior – when does the criticism of Matt Rhule and the Carolina GM begin in earnest? They are doing this to themselves.
Cam is going to run the ball a lot and throw for 150 yards or less in games, as Carolina is going to try and copy the Patriots 2021 offense only with more screen passes to their man back – all running, good defense, hope the other team implodes while you just stay safe.
Cam is going to be a lesser Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson for FF…and that can be a back-end QB1 in 4pts per pass TD leagues.
-- Christian McCaffrey (13-95-0, 109-66-0/10) is a huge winner with Cam’s return…a player he has history with. McCaffrey is getting ready to win FF-leagues for people…unless/until he gets hurt again.
Cam had two TDs, but McCaffrey had the shots at them before that and fell just short, or just stepped out of bounds going in. McCaffrey nearly had 3 TDs this game but ended up with zero.
McCaffrey is back, and if you are going to face him ahead…curse your luck – why couldn’t you face his FF team when he was out?
-- Cam returning is OK for D.J. Moore (4-24-0/7), given a prior relationship…but Cam is a shell of himself as a passer, so beware.
I’d use this week to cash out on DJM…play on the hype of Cam returning and how wonderful that will be for Moore. Cam will throw for 100-150 yards per game, and half+ of that to CMC. Not a ton of DJM upside.
Ditto for Robby Anderson (4-37-1/6), who got a short TD toss off a Cam fake run. Nice, but likely Carolina will run in most short scores and Robby is a downfield worker with a non-downfield QB. Sure, they’ll probably hit one every so often…but no boost or consistency in sight here.
-- Kyler Murray (DNP) may return Week 11, but if he does…I’m sure he will not be at 100% in the legs and therefore he will not run the ball as much, and when he doesn’t run he’s a bit wobbly for FF production, not as hot for FF at 90% vs. peak 100% Kyler (and 100% Kyler is arguably the best QB in FF). Us Kyler owners have to get him through Week 11 to his Week 12 bye to be back 100% for Week 13 on.
-- Christian Kirk (7-58-0/8) is quietly trying to push towards WR2-2.5 in PPR. He’s the #31 WR in PPR scoring per game this season, but he’s the #22 PPG PPR scorer since Week 6…as DeAndre Hopkins started having issues and A.J. Green is fading off.
The risk is, once Hopkins is back…it’s likely back to a WR2.5-3.0 instead of a WR2 hopeful.
-- I will no longer implore you to hold the Cardinals-DST at all costs for the rest of the season. Not because they got rolled here – they really weren’t bad here, just the offense put them behind the 8-ball so often, so quickly. It’s more because of the schedule ahead starting to turn.
Week 11 = at SEA (I’m not totally afraid, BUT if no Kyler then we’re back in the same boat).
Week 12 = BYE
(if you don’t use Arizona Week 11, then you’re not again Week 12…do you want to hold for Weeks 13 and 15?)
Week 13 = at CHI
Week 14 = LAR (I’d rather not)
Week 15 = at DET
Week 16 = IND (top O-Line, never great for FF DST scoring)
Week 17 = at DAL (top O-Line, never great for FF DST scoring)
You know who is the perfect match for Arizona’s Week’s 11, 12, 14 matchups? Carolina with JAX, WSH, and MIA those weeks.
But you could also go with Miami-DST for Weeks 11-12, use ARI Week 13 and then reassess from there.
-- The Carolina-DST’s schedule Weeks 11-14 is great, except a Week 13 bye. And Carolina’s defense is really good, with near-great around the corner with Jaycee Horn back someday.
Week 11 = WSH
Week 12 = at MIA
Week 13 = BYE
Week 14 = ATL
Then you run from Weeks 15-17.
-- This game got out of hand quickly, but Eno Benjamin (6-22-0, 0-0-0/1) only played 15 snaps…so no real excitement from the team on Eno here. This RB coach is way into/friends with Conner (from back in the day), so he’s now going to be the big lead carry RB. Eno is just a handcuff for Conner for now, as Edmonds will be upon his return. Eno or Edmonds have the same value as Marlon Mack or whatever backup RB you want to hold and hope the starter dies off.
-- Not for nothing, but Carolina PK Zane Gonzalez (4/4 FG, 2/2 XP) is the #1 PPG kicker in Fantasy since Week 5. Don’t overlook him if you have an underperforming ‘name’ kicker meandering for you right now.
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Conner
15 = Eno
47 = Kirk
42= Wesley
38 = Green
18 = Rondale (the ‘Isabella’ virus has been transmitted to Rondale)
44 = CMC
16 = Hubbard
16 = Abdullah
66 = PJ Walker
09 = Cam
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Packers 17, Seahawks 0
Aaron Rodgers v. Russell Wilson in a big-time NFC showdown in the Year 2021, which means that a defensive struggle broke out.
It didn’t help that Russell Wilson’s hand wasn’t 100% but it was more that Seattle has a surprisingly good/emerging defense, and the Green Bay Packers have the best defense in football right now (according to me). More on these two DSTs in a moment.
This game was 3-0 going into the 4th-quarter. Neither team could really get going on offense all that well. Eventually, Green Bay broke the seal in the 4th-quarter and Seattle was helpless to try to do the same.
Seattle falls to (3-6) with an outside chance at getting to 9 wins because of a few cupcakes on the schedule, but likely they will wind up around 7-8 wins…because their offensive line is really bad.
Green Bay is now (8-2), and the best team in football. A top defense, a nice run game, an HOF QB. They are a David Bakhtiari return (next week) away from being the best all-around team in the NFL (just need a new kicker)…and are a Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith return away from a Super Bowl title (assuming all other key things stay healthy, which is never assured).
Arizona having to go to Green Bay in January…yeah, I’ll take the Pack. GB can get to 13-14 wins with all the talent they could be getting back…or just with the talent they have. If they punt the Vikings at Minnesota this week…then watch out NFC/the world.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The most important FF thing to discuss from this game…how excellent the Green Bay Packers defense has become. This despite their top CB (Jaire Alexander) and a top pass rusher (Za’Darius Smith) being out.
Three games ago they made Kyler Murray look human for the first time this season.
Two games ago, they made Patrick Mahomes get criticized in the sports media all week…analysts blaming Mahomes/KC, not the GB defense.
This past game, they shutout Russell Wilson…and Russ’s hand getting the blame, not the GB defense.
The Packers are the #3 points per game allowed defense in the NFL…#1 if you take it from Week 2 on. Week 1 they had that weird game where the Saints scored 38 points, but it was a lot of luck and turnovers helping that.
This defense has been progressively getting better each week. Once rookie CB Eric Stokes (1 tackle, 1 PD) went into the starting lineup, they’ve taken off.
De’Vondre Campbell (5 tackles, 1 TFL) has been one of the best free agent signings of the year…and it was last second. As he’s gotten used to the defense, the Pack D has taken off. He’s a top DPOY candidate for me this year. So is Stokes, but neither will get an ounce of recognition by the football media.
Credit as well to Rasul Douglas (4 tackles, 1 PD, 1 TFL) who bounces around the league, but always plays well wherever he goes.
Also, Adrian Amos (4 tackles, 3 PDs) seems like he’s everywhere in pass coverage help. And Rashaan Gary (3 tackles, 1.0 sacks) is having a breakout year…just in time for his free agency.
You’d love to jump all over this for DST use, but at MIN Week 11 isn’t a great matchup…but Green Bay has blown through ‘bad matchups’ lately. Week 12 vs. LAR isn’t optimal, but not devastating. Week 13 is a bye. The next 3 weeks aren’t wonderful setups. Then it gets better – CHI, at BAL, CLE, MIN…three of 4 at home from Weeks 14-17.
-- All the top 10 NFL defenses in PPG allowed are winning record teams or .500 teams at worst except one…and you’d be shocked to know it’s the Seattle Seahawks. The #9 defense in PPG allowed, just a hair behind #8 PIT. I know I was shocked when I saw that.
They held Green Bay to just 3 points going into the 4th-quarter. They’ve allowed 12.3 PPG over their last three games. It’s a top 10 run defense (by ypc allowed) but still the #29 pass defense (by yards per game). They’ve given up the 4th lowest number of passing TDs this season…they give up some yards but not scores.
Whether you guy into this defense for FF or not…not that they do have a good schedule after Week 11.
Heinicke, Jimmy G., Tyrod, Stafford, Fields, Goff in Weeks 12-17. They are improving on defense and about to hit a nice schedule stretch to further support things.
-- The big news here is A.J. Dillon (21-66-2, 2-62-0/2) is going to get clean starts for the next two weeks, at least, likely. Aaron Jones has a sprained MCL, and that could be more like 4-5 weeks versus 2-3.
Dillon is the closest thing we have to Derrick Henry in the NFL…a modern-day Earl Campbell. Buckle up for a 1-2-3+ week run with a new high-end RB1.
Every week, another RB or three goes down and gives opportunity to the #2 for 1-3 weeks. Dillon is the best of all #2s. Whatever #1 RB hasn’t been hurt yet…they’re due. Hold onto the #2 RB in a decent offense, where they’d really matter if given the shot -- Tony Pollard, Marlon Mack, even Ronald Jones. Those three #2 RBs named are behind top #1s who haven’t missed a game yet.
NOTE: When Green Bay did score the game’s only TD, it was Dillon for the short plunge. However, oddly, before that…Patrick Taylor took the two carries in the goal-to-go situation before Dillon punched it in. Taylor is talented, but not as much as Dillon. He’ll see some touches, but I am only pointing him out to note he’s the handcuff for if Dillon goes down while Jones is still down…and that he’s pretty solid/good as a power runner.
-- Dillon will be helped by the fading passing game of Aaron Rodgers (23-37 for 292 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT), plus the Pack’s good defense. Green Bay can win through run game and defense, and not have to rely on Rodgers for everything.
Rodgers still has the arm, quick release…but he only seems comfortable with Davante Adams (7-78-0/11) and swing passes to the RBs. He’s still a top/dangerous NFL QB…just a weakening one for FF.
Rodgers will be helped for output when Bakhtiari returns, but that edge is probably negated by Green Bay not needing to throw a million times to win anymore. Rodgers is on the fence of QB1/QB2 for FF ahead…no longer a ‘top guy’ but can have top guy weeks.
-- Russell Wilson (20-40 for 161 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs, 5-32-0) didn’t look right. He didn’t look obviously hindered, but he did not look like himself throwing the ball PLUS the Packers defense was all over him.
Wilson’s hand might be an issue, but I know his pass protection is. We have Seattle, currently, as the single lowest rated pass protection group in the NFL. That’s not good for Russ production…or for time to throw to Lockett-Metcalf.
Which, speaking of that…
-- There were a ton of passes, short/quick ones to Gerald Everett (8-63-0/8) here. It seemed like a random game plan or something, but then I saw that the last time Everett played with Russ (all the way back in Week 3), he had a (5-54-0/5) game.
13 catches on 13 targets for 117 yards is the tally for their last two, full games together…TE1 work in PPR. It’s worth noting or gambling on ahead. However, Week 11 vs. Arizona is not a great matchup to see…but we’ll see. Wilson needs quick/short dump passes to counterbalance his awful O-Line…it might Everett in the spot to gain from it.
-- This Seattle O-Line is so bad it is killing Alex Collins (10-41-0, 1-8-0/1). Collins sees primary touches but can hardly get going before he’s greeted by the defense on every handoff.
Collins may need to start the rest of the season, which has some FF hope…but his O-Line is going to suppress him to RB2.5-3.0 work, it looks like.
Snap Counts of Interest:
70 = Davante
50 = Cobb
49 = MVS
44 = Lazard
36 = Dillon
34 = Jones
03 = Taylor
31 = Homer (led SEA RBs in snaps, working as a satellite back/hurry up offense time)
30 = Collins
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Dolphins 22, Ravens 10
Well, I don't think anyone saw this coming. The Dolphins just handed the Ravens their asses on a plate. I'm not going to get into the specifics because it was a rather boring game and rather straightforward, but suffice it to say that Miami looked like and was the superior team here.
I first noticed the Miami defense looking quite impressive a couple weeks ago against Buffalo. The Bills were struggling to put anything together all game. At first I thought it was just an off night, but it was obvious after watching the game that Miami was playing very good defensively. Same thing against Houston. They simply couldn't get anything going. It just didn't get made into a big deal because it's Houston and their offense sucks anyways.
This makes three weeks in a row now where Miami has just suffocated the opposing offense. It seems obvious now that you can't just start your guys against them, particularly WR's. The Miami secondary is playing lights out, but the run defense, which was a leaky sieve early in the year, suddenly looks much improved too.
What brought about this change? I honestly have no idea. All I can do is point it out. Miami should be considered a top 10, if not a top 5 defense now. That's how good they look. Add a weak but plausible offense led by Tua in, and you have the recipe for a team that's a difficult out. I would not be surprised if Miami wins their next 4 games against a weak schedule to get back to respectability.
The Ravens fall to 6-3 and have problems looming. Their remaining schedule is full of threatening games, including two each against division rivals Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Those two teams have their own issues, but Baltimore isn't drastically better than either. I think they are really going to struggle the second half of the year and likely finish with around 10 wins although 9 or 11 wouldn't shock me either. They are a good but not great team that's been propelled by luck as much as anything so far.
*RC NOTE: I’ll take credit for the Ravens sudden downfall. The moment I endorsed them/stopped hating them a few weeks ago...they always do the opposite to me. Now, that I’m gloating about their demise...guaranteed big win this week on their way to the Super Bowl *until I turn on them again, and then they’ll turn on me turning on them...and round-and-round we go).
Fantasy Notes
--So Tua Tagovailoa (8-13 for 158 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) came off the bench after Jacoby Brissett (11-23 for 156 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) sustained an injury and struggled. Why didn't Tua start if he was healthy enough to play? I don't know and haven't seen a good explanation. What I do know is that he's good enough to hang in games now, especially with the help of a great defense. He can play pitch and catch with WRs on all those short routes and it will work most weeks.
Don't get sucked in by the huge yards per attempt here. He benefited from two broken coverage plays where a receiver got loose for easy completions. He'll be back to his usual “death by a thousand papercuts” style next week. I still think Tua works as a spot start or decent QB2 but only against teams that don't generate a ton of pressure with their defensive line (like Buffalo).
--I hate Myles Gaskin (14-31-0, 1-14-0/2) so much. I know he gets touches, but his averages are just so bad and this offense doesn't score a lot of points. There's no reason you should have him anyways.
--Albert Wilson (4-87-0/5) and Isaiah Ford (4-84-0/4) both had good games, but both happened because of broken coverage by the Ravens. Neither looks particularly involved in the offense or capable of a breakout.
*RC NOTE: I am not totally dismissing Albert Wilson...I thought he looked good here, and he is a good player. If he’s playin g/starting, in the baby throw Tua offense...it can work for like WR3 stuff.
--Somehow Mike Gesicki managed to not catch a single pass on 7 targets. That's mostly on Brissett though. Nothing wrong with Gesicki. Fire him up as usual next week.
--Jaylen Waddle (4-61-0/6) had a relatively quiet game which might give room to buy him in dynasty. As usual, don't overpay.
--Should you worry about Lamar Jackson (26-43 for 238 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 9-39-0)? Not yet. He is what he is. Most games you're going to get less than 250 yards passing, 1 TD, and then 50+ yards on the ground. He's a high floor option, and nothing is going to change that. I do think that his upside might be capped against much tougher opponents the rest of the year. He's had three monster games against the Chiefs, Colts, and Vikings, but other than that he's just been ok. “Ok” is what I expect from him most weeks now.
--Like I said last week, this is Devonta Freeman's (10-35-0, 3-23-0/4) backfield now. Shouldn't be. Should be Tyson Williams, but the Ravens are geniuses and know better than all of us peons. Freeman is just another RB2-2.5 for now.
*RC NOTE: I think Latavius walks back in and is the run game lead, and Freeman the 3rd-down guy with some carries otherwise.
--Rashod Bateman (6-80-0/8) is already locked in as the #2 receiver, and I think he has a more stable role than what we've seen from any other Baltimore sidekick receiver before. You can trust him as a WR3 from here on out.
--Marquise Brown (6-37-0/13) had a rare down week. He's been arguably the most consistent receiver in football over the last 20 games or so. There's nothing to panic about with him. He got 13 targets here. It just happened to come against two of the best CB's in the game. Fire him up every week if you have him, and if you can still trade I recommend trying to nab him of this down game.
IDP Notes
--The only thing I can figure caused the change in Miami's defense is more snaps for Andrew Van Ginkel (5 tackles, 0.5 sack, 1 pd) and the return of Jerome Baker (4 tackles). Neither guy is lighting up the stat sheet, but the improved play at linebacker was clear the last few weeks. Shocking I know, better linebackers equals better run defense.
*RC NOTE: The Miami-DST…
If they are catching fire, and seems like they are...then checkout this schedule ahead for them:
Week 11 = at NYJ (nice alt for ARI-DST v SEA)
Week 12 = CAR (nice fill-in for ARI-DST on bye)
Week 13 = NYG
Week 14 = BYE
Week 15 = NYJ
Week 16 = NO
Week 17 = at TEN
As long as Miami is still alive for the wild card, this is a nice DST schedule. You get them against White/ZWilson-Cam-Dimes-bye-ZWIlson-Tannehill-minus-Henry.
Snap Counts of Interest
61 = Jaylen Waddle
38 = Albert Wilson
18 = Preston Williams
56 = Mike Gesicki
41 = Durham Smythe
38 = Adam Shaheen
42 = Myles Gaskin
16 = Patrick Laird
55 = Marquise Brown
44 = Devin Duvernay
40 = Rashod Bateman
42 = Devonta Freeman
31 = Le'Veon Bell
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Giants 23, Raiders 16
Most people saw this Giants-Raiders end with a lower/average scoring win in a game involving mostly not used FF players…and no one really cared much about it. Darren Waller and/or Graham Gano, and that’s about the meat of it for most for FF interest (by and large for FFMers). No one really watched this with great anticipation, probably not even respective fans of the team.
I’m not immune to that vibe either. I should’ve paid more attention to this one – this game was a nice watch, two good teams fought hard, and I have more FF-notes than I expected.
I am a sudden NYG fan because I think I am seeing the hidden gem team of the future. The penny stock to buy and watch it inflate to $1.00+ down the road. A Giants team most non-Giants fans ignore. A Giants team that most Giants fans hate. But I think the Giants have all the pieces for a playoff run, if they can get those pieces healthy…and they have all the pieces of an NFC East winner in 2022 if they upgrade their O-Line…and a possible Super Bowl run in years to come, if they then find a better QB.
It was a treat to watch because this was a good football game involving two really ‘good’ (not great), tough teams – they went to war and MY Giants won…so, that was also fun.
And the Giants won in a way you can be football-impressed with – led by the defense. Vegas drove the ball down on the Giants like every other drive it seemed, and it wasn’t easy to drive against NYG, but Vegas is good…and as they got close/into the red zone the Giants bowed up and slammed the door shut on scoring TDs, instead holding the Raiders to field goals or nothing, which allowed NYG to put up enough offense to pull out the win.
It was an ending befitting the whole game flow – the Raiders down 7 with 3+ minutes to go starting a drive at their own 25-yard line. Down the field they grinded…into the red zone, 1st & 10 at the Giants 13-yard line with 0:50 left. On 1st-down, the Giants suffocated all the receiving options and flushed Carr to force a throw away. 2nd & 10 from the 13/the next play, a strip sack by Quincy Roche and the Giants recovered – ball game.
It was ‘so (my) Giants’ for the ending – the strip sack by Roche…a rookie pass rusher that the Steelers cut in the preseason, a guy who anyone who was looking (which means no one in the NFL except Gettleman) could’ve seen he was dominating left tackles and showed a real spark…as I pointed out repeatedly this August. The Steelers went on to sign awful Melvin Ingram to fill their pass rush needs, and then they gave up on Ingram a few weeks later. The Giants claimed Roche and he has earned more and more playing time and is now contributing big time on their D-Line. I wonder what the Steelers GM thinks every time Roche makes a play every week for NYG. I hope he gets indigestion…and ridicule from his co-workers.
Ahh, who am I kidding…I know the Steelers GM isn’t watching football games other than his team on Sundays, from the luxury box, between trips to the buffet spread and playing Candy Crush on his cellphone. He probably isn’t aware Roche is even on the Giants…or still in the NFL.
This was a big win for NYG…still reeling from all their injuries, and they went and took down a division leader. NYG really should have beaten KC Week 8, and then knocked down LV here…and been on a three-game win streak. They’re that good (not great). Now, a bye week and then the (3-6) Giants go to Tampa Bay…a game where they might have Saquon and their starting left tackle (A. Thomas) back with a healthy Golladay-Toney. If the G-Men somehow roughhouse Tompa Bay at Tampa Bay on a Monday Night game, Katie bar the door, this NYG team is a playoff contender.
It’s a tall order to go to TB and beat them on MNF Week 11, but we’ll see what the injury reports say. NYG is the kinda team that could give Tompa fits because the G-men are the toughest team that I watch each week, outside of Arizona…and they might harass pretty boy Tom like it’s 2012.
The Giants need to keep Joe Judge and Dave Gettleman (who is doing some of the best personnel work in all the NFL), and ditch Jason Garrett and not re-sign Saquon Barkley to a deal and find a veteran quarterback to replace Dan Dimes, and presto-chango, Giants win the NFC East in 2022.
All my Giants talk is overshadowing a very good Las Vegas team…a very legit team to win the AFC West. The best thing that ever happened to this Raiders team was Gruden getting dumped and installing Rich Bisaccia as head coach. The Raiders are a junior version of the Giants – they’re good overall, scrappy-tough, play with a chip, have a bad O-Line, have a gritty defense that doesn’t get enough credit, but where LV is lesser than NYG in most every position group -- they have the way better QB.
The Raiders are now (5-3) and can take a huge step forward, and I think they will, Week 10 by slaughtering Kansas City. It’s a tough schedule ahead, and we project LV to come up short of the division with a (9-8) record, but 10 wins is not out of the question, nor is 8 wins and out of the playoff picture. Week 10 is everything for Las Vegas. Lose and they will likely tailspin. Win and they may get launched forward as the AFC West favorites and a new swagger.
Seriously, I’m a Giants fan now…the G-Men…the Me-Men (no that won’t work, that sounds too…well you know…email Jon Gruden and see what he says). Send me all the cool Giants gear. My son is a long-time Giants fan, but he couldn’t name 3 players on the team…but we can bond over it now that he’s an old married man (almost married 4 whole days now). *Note: I’m a fan of no team in reality. I won’t be jaded by such personal bias. More so I’ll complain often about how the NYG organization didn’t capitalize on the opportunity I am seeing.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s start by discussing Kadarius Toney (1-9-0/1, one rush for -2 yds, one pass attempt, sacked).
He ‘started’…that’s the good news.
The bad news is everything else.
Remember Week 5 versus Dallas when he was literally the best, most dangerous WR in football? No? Well, Jason Garrett and Daniel Jones don’t either.
If Toney is fully practicing, and you’re (NYG) starting him…how in the world are you not getting him the ball a ton? Only in Jason Garrett’s world. I was DELIGHTED and impressed when I saw Garrett push everything to Toney Week 5…and now I take it all back because in this critical game, Toney was a ghost. Sure, Garrett has his one clever ‘trick pass’ play with Toney per game (by NY State law, you must AND can only use that one time a game) but other than that, apparently…Toney is ‘bad at football’ now, not worthy of touches. Kyle Rudolph (4-20-0/5) led the team in targets, which is what makes Garrett and Dimes idiots. They won, so what do I know?
Toney started the first play and then wasn’t seen again for several more plays and ended up playing 50% of the snaps and getting one whole target. You can’t FF-trust Toney until we see a change in usage.
I can tell you this, Toney looks fantastic. He’s moving fine/great. His route, his cut on his one and only target/catch – beautiful…unstoppable…can get open on anyone at any time. In Dynasty, go grab him and park him on your bench for the future…should be cheaper to do so since we’re five weeks from whence he was great that one time. Typing this made me think – Elijah Moore had that 2 TD game last week…I’d send my Elijah for their Kadarius, straight up, in an instant in Dynasty. And that’s probably the right value today, and maybe overtrading for Toney…which with Toney, I am fine with over-trading for a bit in Dynasty.
-- You know what NYG WR looks really good…Kenny Golladay (3-28-0/3). He is moving great. He is acting like a #1 WR. So, why a ‘meh’ FF-game?
Golladay, like Toney, only played 50%+ of the snaps in this game. And, oh yeah…Daniel Jones sucks out loud.
Jones is only good, and thus Golladay is in a better spot too, when Saquon is there to take heat off Jones so he can stay in the pocket longer to make comfortable throws. Jones is such a puss…so SAWFT that he bails on any pressure…and the Raiders have a good, pressuring defense (and NYG’s line is not great). But when Barkley is back, defenses shutter. When Andrew Thomas is back, even better. When NYG is at full strength, Jones is able to sit clean in pockets and slice and dice like it’s a 7-on-7 game, like he did earlier this season.
But Golladay, especially those of you in Dynasty that can afford to sit on him into 2022, he’s a WR1 talent and movement skills (and experience being a WR1) in hiding. For redraft, we have to wait for Barkley to return…and for KG to play 80%+ of the snaps and for Jason Garrett to get his head out of his arse.
-- ‘My running backs are killing me…’ you proclaim, as you have Devontae Booker (21-99-0, 3-23-0/3) as the #15 PPG PPR back in Fantasy since Week 5. Scoring per game ahead of Josh Jacobs, James Robinson, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Christian McCaffrey among others.
But he’s going away soon! Yeah…and? What RBs aren’t going away for games at a time? People just lost Alvin Kamara and Damien Harris this week. Dalvin Cook might wind up suspended. Derrick Henry gone. Edmonds on IR. McCaffrey just got back from missing a ton of games. Be happy with the run you’ve had with Booker.
Oh, and it’s not assured Saquon will be back Week 11…or 12…or ever in 2021…and if he is back, what’s it gonna be? Two games before he’s hurt again? Two quarters?
I’d hold Booker even when Barkley returns. He’s a quad away…
-- You know what RB looks really good? Kenyan Drake (4-30-0, 6-70-0/8). He looks the best I’ve ever seen him…AND he looks way better than Josh Jacobs (13-76-0, 4-19-0/4). AND that fact cost Las Vegas the game, potentially.
In a key spot, later in the game, Las Vegas driving on a 3rd-down and short in the red zone…and it was Josh Jacobs, not 3rd-down back Drake (who was killing it all game), who was in the game. Jacobs got the pass in that key spot, but couldn’t pull away from the defender, so it was a quick catch-and-tackle short of a 1st-down. I think Drake would have been further out in front of the defender, made the same catch, and walked into the end zone untouched. Jacobs was blanketed and tackled right away leading to a field goal. It’s the little things that drive me nuts in the NFL…things you would think they know but they never do.
Drake’s splits on the season, pre-and post-new coaching staff…
6.5 PPR PPG on 4.8 carries, 2.6 rec. (3.6 targets), 39.0 total yards, 0.0 TDs per game with Gruden
18.2 PPR PPG on 7.3 carries, 3.8 rec. (4.3 targets), 84.0 total yards, 1.0 TDs per game with Bisaccia
Since Week 6, Drake is the #9 PPR RB in Fantasy.
-- Henry Ruggs gone? It’s not Bryan Edwards (0-0-0/4) time, as I instantly said when the Ruggs news hit – that it’s not more Edwards it’s MORE Hunter Renfrow (7-49-1/9) time. Renfrow is Carr’s BFF target. A mini-Cooper (get it) Kupp for Carr.
With the new head coach, Renfrow has booked three games averaging 5.7 rec. (7.3 targets), 47.7 yards, 0.33 TDs per game. First game without Ruggs, Renfrow matched his career high for targets in a game (9).
…and note, the Carr throws to Edwards were so bad in this game (as usual), such a non-connection between them…I’m done with Edwards. He’s only if you have DEEP rosters to hang onto to see if a miracle happens in 2022.
-- I LOVE the way MY New York Giants are playing on defense right now. Are they a viable FF DST to use ahead? Not really.
Week 11 at TB is not sublime.
Weeks 12-13 v. PHI and MIA are looking decent.
Weeks 14-15 with LAC-DAL is a no-go.
Weeks 16-17 at PHI, at CHI ends it nicely…IF the G-Men are still in it.
-- What about the scrappy, plucky Raiders-DST? Their schedule is mostly brutal ahead. Week 13 hosting Washington is a spot start if needed.
-- Quick bonus on the Robert Woods ACL…
It’s a nice bump for Van Jefferson to assume the Woods role even more. Sure, OBJ will see time and suck some oxygen out of the room…but like with DJax, the crappy WRs of ancient lore will see a quick spike of activity and then everyone realizes they are wastes of space and they move on to playing bit roles.
I like Kupp getting the main attention in coverage, and then OBJ…because the most clueless, behind-the-times people in football are defensive coordinators (who still think guys like Sammy Watkins is something to fear/plan for) – so they’ll throw attention at dropsy OBJ too, which should allow Van Jefferson to eat up catches with the weakest coverage of the group.
When I see the name Van Jefferson right now, I think = Robert Woods output hopes. We’ll see on MNF, but that will probably be a force-to-OBJ fest at first, but as the season resumes to normal Jefferson bumps up.
Snap Counts of Interest:
31 = Golladay
31 = Slayton
31 = Toney
21 = Collin Johnson
05 = Ross
46 = Engram
31 = Rudolph
66 = Zay Jones
64 = Bryan Edwards
45 = Renfrow
34 = Jacobs
31 = Drake
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Broncos 30, Cowboys 16
I could go either way with analyzing this game. It’s in the eye of the beholder, as most football things are.
I could say that Denver played the best game I’ve seen them play in 2021, and they just went out and stomped Dallas.
I could also say that Dallas had every minor thing that could go wrong ended up going wrong and that boosted Denver early and then Dallas started pressing and Denver was ‘feeling it’ and it just got away from Dallas. Just ‘one of those games’.
Dallas aided the Denver assault with Dak just missing open deep balls on receivers a few times…Dallas got hit with penalties at the wrong time, etc. -- all allowing Denver to take a 16-0 halftime lead. The epitome of this game occurred to start the 2nd-half. Dallas stopped Denver’s 2nd-half opening drive deep in Broncos territory. Denver was punting to set Dallas up with (likely) great field position. Dallas then actually blocked the punt…and then IT happened.
Dallas blocked it but they touched the ball downfield and then Denver ended up recovering it in the end, and it was ruled a change of possession on the Dallas downfield touch, and so the ball went back to Denver for a 1st-down from where they recovered it. I don’t think I’d ever seen a blocked punt turn into a turnover back to the kicking team. That play took the wind out of the Dallas sails, as more bad luck ensued from there and Denver was on fire and Dallas was defeated and then next thing you know it’s 30-0 Denver with 6+ minutes remaining. https://youtu.be/THU4BXYNSMQ
Denver was not 30-0 better than Dallas here…they aren’t 30-0 better than Dallas in general. It was just one of those games. Dallas laid an egg, had bad things go against them, and Denver gained swagger and just put Dallas away.
Denver should be credited with an inspired performance and a very good defensive effort. Their secondary is really getting strong. Denver is not a great team, and they’ll probably lay an egg this week in response, but they are good enough to hang with any team…just not good enough to win the Super Bowl or anything.
The Broncos are now (5-4) and back on track for my preseason playoff prediction for them. I still think they are not-great, but it was always about them being OK with a great schedule. I still believe in my statement after Weeks 4-5…Denver is not even good enough to chop through to the playoffs even with the schedule boost. I think they’ll hit 7-8 wins and just fall short…but 9+ wins and a wild card is not totally out of the question.
Dallas is a different team without their LT Tyron Smith. They’re 7-11 when Smith is out since 2019 and 13-9 with him starting. Dallas is set to be without him again in Week 10. Dallas is now (6-2) and is still on track for a 10-12 win season, with a chance at a #1 seed if they can beat up all the NFC East foes they have coming up and take down Arizona Week 17. However many wins they wind up with, Dallas should win the NFC East easily (unless Dak goes down or Tyron is down and out).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Dak Prescott (19-39 for 232 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) did not look hindered in any way this game from his calf injury. He definitely didn’t have his best game and he missed two deep ball throws by a yard that would’ve changed the game, so who knows. But I didn’t see any cause for Dak concern here. Just good Denver D, a couple bad throws, and a couple bad drops by receivers.
-- Courtland Sutton (1-9-0/2) does concern me…concerns me that he’s a nice #1 NFL WR for his team, but they don’t FF-lean on or force it to him like other great QB-WR combos. This wasn’t Trevon Diggs wiping him out, although Diggs was on him maybe 50%+ of the game and thus Teddy avoided – but I think Teddy is just into working what makes sense and not leaning on/pressing for Sutton…smart for NFL purposes, bad for FF purposes. Sutton had a nice slant route in the end zone for an easy TD, but Diggs assaulted him for a P.I. and lost the TD event.
Sutton is a solid WR2 with random event FF-games…like a Terry McLaurin.
…or like Amari Cooper (2-37-0/5). Amari-Courtland-McLaurin…three talented #1 WRs who are producing WR2-3 numbers with some spike WR1 weeks with way too many WR3-4 weeks mixed in to make a WR2 average output, but it’s usually feast or famine.
Credit to Denver CB Ronald Darby, who was eating up Amari when he was on him. It might be that Amari isn’t 100% healthy…and/or Amari isn’t 100% into football right now. He looks very uninspired/low key in games right now.
-- Like I say every week, Javonte Williams (17-111-0) looks amazing but he’s just the co-lead, the 1b to the Melvin Gordon 1a for Vic Fangio.
I wonder with the weak O-C Pat Shurmur out this week if the new O-C isn’t as much of a dope and leans on Javonte more. Doubtful, but hopeful…I guess…
-- Albert Okwuegbunam (4-25-0/5) should be/could be starting for 10+ other teams in the league right now, but he’s stuck behind Noah Fant (DNP-COVID) here. He’s a bit stunted in his growth, stuck as a backup/secondary TE here. We won’t see what Albert O. is fully capable of for another three years when he’s a free agent in 2024.
Dalton Schultz (4-54-0/5) isn’t anywhere near the talent of Okwuegbunam, but he’s in a better spot for FF. I’m a buyer on the cheap on any Schultz weakness. He’s a top 5-8 PPR TE for 2021. Not the greatest asset in the world, but stable…as stable as about anything else at TE these days.
-- The Broncos-DST is good-not-great, but they are improving as players get healthy and young players are starting to mature. They just played their best game of 2021…after ditching Von Miller. So, before you think the Rams just won the Super Bowl signing Von…
Two young Denver IDPs emerging a bit from the recent game tape:
1) New starting ILB, rookie Baron Browning (6 tackles) looks promising. He’s a big, long, athletic linebacker who has been shaky on actual football IQ/output, but he’s showing promise thrust into the starting lineup due to all the Denver LB injuries this season.
2) Rookie SAF Caden Sterns (3 tackles, 1 PD, 1 INT) is a future Pro Bowler who would be already starting for most teams in the league. He’s so good, so smooth. He had an excellent interception in this game to really put out the Dallas fire in the 2nd-half, and then had a pick-six opportunity late in the game but it was barely tipped by the WR just as he was about to snatch it coming full speed into it.
-- This game was a big hit to any Dallas-DST momentum anyone thought they had from last week shutting down Minnesota. They were completely obliterated on the ground by a bad Denver O-Line with three backups having to play on that O-Line. Now, the Cowboys have lost Randy Gregory for a while on top of missing their best pass rusher Demarcus Lawrence for most of this season.
Dallas is down their two best DEs (not counting Parsons switching there) and down their best O-Linemen (Tyron) for Week 10. If Dallas stumbles and loses to Atlanta this week…there could be trouble ahead for them cruising to the playoffs, and definitely they are not getting a #1 seed.
Speaking of Micah Parsons (10 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3 TFLs)…he’s starting to put away the DROY award bet this year. Thank you to Master Chris from Bet The Close Podcast for that identification of the weird/favorable odds on him to win it.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Ced Wilson
44 = Lamb
36 = Amari
25 = Noah Brown
33 = Elliott
24 = Pollard
65 = Sutton
48 = Patrick
47 = Jeudy
22 = Hinton
41 = Gordon
37 = Javonte
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Dolphins 17, Texans 9
You've got to be kidding me with this one. I've watched several boring games this year, but this one was quite possibly the worst. The score was 17-6 at halftime...
There's not much to say about this one. 5 INT's between them. 4 Fumbles. Just a bit over 500 yards total offense combined. Two of the worst offensive lines in the league. Two of the worst QB's. Probably the absolute worst two groups of skill position players. If you didn't see this one you aren't missing anything.
The only real note I have to mention about this game is that this is the 2nd week in a row that the Miami defense has shown up. They were getting smacked pretty hard early in the year, but it looks like things might finally be coming together. They really fought the Bills hard and completely shut down the Texans here. (Spoiler alert: they crushed the Ravens during their Thursday night game. This trend is real). This might suddenly be a defense that you have to think twice about.
Miami has quite an easy schedule the rest of the year, and if they can get Tua back healthy I could see them finishing up strong with 3 or 4, maybe 5 wins if they get lucky and pulling close to .500.
Houston...well, we all knew this was coming. They were projected to be the worst team in the league during the preseason and they are living up to the low expectations. Only the Lions are possibly worse. This team will be extremely lucky if they can get to 3 or 4 wins.
Fantasy Notes
--How is Myles Gaskin (20-34-1, 6-23-0/6) still a thing? Seriously. You wish your RB's coach loved him as much as Flores loves Gaskin. This guy gets 20 carries while Jordan Howard, David Johnson, and Tyson Williams are lucky to get the time of day. It's borderline criminal. There is 0% chance Gaskin is still starting for Miami in 2022.
*RC NOTE: 0% only if Brian Flores is fired. It’s 100% if Flores is retained.
--How good has Mike Gesicki (4-54-0/8) become? If he had an elite QB this guy could be putting up numbers to match the best Travis Kelce years. Some of the catches he made in this game were unreal. It's been an amazing transformation from the soft, shaky hands TE we saw coming out of college. He's going to finish as a top 5 TE in fantasy this year despite getting so few TD's. Just a QB away in dynasty and he's still quite cheap…
*RC NOTE: I’ve been on the same vibe with Gesicki, but I’m going to make Ross write up/explain Gesicki’s (0-0-0/7) game against Baltimore. Perhaps the most bizarre stat line of the 2021 season.
--The other Dolphin I want for dynasty and redraft is Jaylen Waddle (8-83-0/10). It doesn't matter that he's not the Tyreek clone he was hyped up as during the draft. He's still plenty fast, is a quality receiver, and most importantly his team loves him. Never thought we'd be talking about Waddle as a ppr monster, but that's exactly what he's become.
--I theorized that Phillip Lindsay (8-28-0) would be the primary 1st and 2nd down back after the Ingram trade and that's exactly what we've got here. You'd think that would be good for fantasy, but Houston's line sucks so badly that there's just nowhere to run. Also the team is constantly trailing which forces them to throw more and Lindsay never gets passing game work for some reason. The only weeks where Lindsay might be worth playing in deep weeks is when Houston plays an equally as bad opponent where they can keep the score close.
--David Johnson still looks like one of the better 10 or 12 RB's in the league, but he's splitting too much on this garbage team to matter.
--The only player that should be rostered in normal leagues from Houston is Brandin Cooks (6-56-0/14). He is the engine of the offense, and even though he's drawing top coverage and everyone knows he's getting the ball, he's still been a solid ppr this year even with Tyrod and Mills throwing him the ball.
--3rd string TE Antony Auclair (2-23-0/2) randomly played more snaps than Akins and Jordan here. Not sure what's going on with that. I don't see any reason to think this is an emerging trend or something to jump on.
IDP Notes
--It doesn't always show up on the stat sheet, but Emmanuel Ogbah (4 tackles, 2.5 sacks) has been playing fantastic football this year. It showed up here as he decimated a bad Houston offensive line.
--I love watching Roy Lopez (3 tackles, 1 sack). He is already a load for most interior lineman to handle and he just never stops coming. He's only playing about 30 snaps a game right now, but he's still putting up good numbers despite it. What can he do when he's a starter?
*RC NOTE: See our CFM scouting report on him where we discovered him ahead of the all scouts, and may have been the source that tipped off someone in the Texans personnel department.
Snap Counts of Interest
67 = Brandin Cooks
48 = Nico Collins
34 = Danny Amendola
34 = Antony Auclair
25 = Jordan Akins
20 = Brevin Jordan
31 = David Johnson
21 = Rex Burkhead
14 = Phillip Lindsay
65 = Jaylen Waddle
60 = Mack Hollins
17 = Albert Wilson
59 = Mike Gesicki
45 = Durham Smythe
36 = Adam Shaheen
54 = Myles Gaskin
14 = Salvon Ahmed
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Falcons 27, Saints 25
The Saints are one of those ‘good-not-great’ teams that can beat any top team (crushed Tampa Bay Week 8) and can also lose to any bottom team out of nowhere (losing here to ATL). You never know what Saints team you’re gonna get week-to-week.
The Saints are trying to play this season on a strategy of having a plausible offense (with Trevor Siemian) and solid defense (which varies wildly week-to-week) to back their way into the playoffs. They do not have the firepower to make any noise if they get to the playoffs. The Saints are in no man’s land for the NFL…too good to tank for better draft slotting, and not good enough to take seriously as a title contender. They just kinda exist as this annoyingly good or bad team week-to-week. They have a path to 9-10 wins, and a wild card…but they won’t do much with it if they do get into the playoffs.
The Falcons were up 10-0 at the half, and up 24-6 with 10+ minutes left in the game…but then they did the typical Falcons collapse-with-the-lead and out of nowhere the Saints pulled ahead 25-24 with 1:01 remaining. Cordarrelle Patterson came down with a big/deep ball prayer to get the Falcons into a reasonable FG position with not much time left…and the Falcons ended up hitting the game winning ‘three’ at the buzzer to shock the Saints in New Orleans.
Atlanta climbs to (4-4) and could have been (6-2) with a little luck, or (1-7) with worse luck. They are at .500 today, but I think they’re one of the worst teams in the NFL. But they are still in the playoff race today. The Falcons will win 6-7 games tops.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I may be leading us all off a cliff…or more apropos, I’m offering you some purple Kool-Aid straight from a Jonestown home brewed recipe. Whatever analogy you’d call it, I’m going to make the following comments, I’m going to trust my instincts/scouting, and you decide whether to pick up the cup and drink…
Deonte Harris (6-52-0/8, 1-22-0) is the closest thing to Tyreek Hill there is in the NFL right now. It’s a large gap/distance between them in the race…but Deonte is starting to give me that same hair standing up on my arms feeling like when I saw Tyreek Hill early on in his NFL career.
It’s not so much an ‘on paper’ comp, as it is ‘my eyes’…but to just show the physical comparison data, and the gap between them…
5’6”/171, 4.48 40-time, 2.50 20-yd, 1.51 10-yd, 4.16 shuttle, 6.82 three-cone = Deonte
5’8”/185, 4.29 40-time, 2.51 20-yd, 1.50 10-yd, 4.06 shuttle, 6.53 three-cone = Tyreek
Deonte is working like a cross between a store-brand old Tyreek Hill (years 1-2 in the NFL) and Curtis Samuel 2020 – blazing speed, super high-end ability to stop-start/accelerate and juke, a top punt/kick return threat, BUT (and here’s the key) he’s starting to work like a real NFL WR. He’s running sublime routes and breaking them off so quickly or changing directions that no corners can keep up with him.
And the great news is, the QBs are starting to notice. Harris has played three normal (for him) games since Week 4 (got hurt Week 5 in-game, missed Week 7 and had a Week 6 bye). The Saints top 3 in targeting in those three specific games…
23 targets = Deonte (14 catches)
13 targets = Callaway (8 catches)
11 targets = Kamara (7 catches)
It’s not even close how much the Saints are shifting to Harris. And it’s happening with him working with Winston and Siemian.
Harris is taking some bubble screens, because he should take 3-4 per game, but more and more he’s running downfield routes and the QBs are using him the most for real NFL throws. He’s been on the brink of breaking small catches turning into long run TDs. He’s a deep ball threat, a reliable 1st-down maker with his hands/routes, and an excellent bubble screen option who can take jet sweeps (hit on a 22-yarder in this game). He can do it all.
The crazy thing is, he’s doing all this while playing about 30% of the snaps in games. People freak out about lower snap counts for WRs/RBs, and I get it, but I’ll make the same argument here that I did when everyone in FF analysis was wanting to deny Cordarrelle Patterson for the same rationale – snaps don’t matter as much when the player is consistently touching the ball when he IS IN for his snaps. Deonte has nearly doubled the next closest player on the Saints in targets in his recent three ‘normal play’ games (Wks 4, 8, 9) while only playing 38% of the snaps in those games on average (49-32-30).
Most people will say – it’s a red flag/it can’t keep up playing low snap counts. I get that. It’s totally natural. But I believe in the thought process that he’s getting good targets despite the low targets, and it’s getting consistent, and then…WHAT IF THEY UP HIS SNAPS (what I said about CPatt early on in the 2021 season)?
Harris is moving towards the Saints top non-RB weapon and Sean Payton knows it, and the QBs know it, but they do need to manage his reps because he has had history of getting nicked up – they need to treat him with some ‘management’, and you only ‘manage’ things you care about/need.
Some random Harris factoids…
2019 NFL All-Rookie team
2019 1st-team punt returner voted by AP (and many others)
2019 All-Pro as a return man
2020 hurt (minor injury) most of the season.
2021 Currently leading the NFL in kick return avg (27.6) despite not returning one for a TD yet.
He has caught 75.8% of his career 62 targets.
He has run the ball 12 times in his career, for 105 yards (8.8 ypc)
He is YTD #3 on the Saints in targets and catches, despite having missed three games, essentially -- but making his big move as of late in targets and catches.
Despite missing two games and playing under 50% of the snaps all season…he currently leads the Saints in receiving yards (323) and yards per reception (15.4).
We’re not on the verge of a Tyreek Hill 2020 or 2021, were more kinda-sorta early stages Tyreek…but no one was like Tyreek or will be (of anyone I see in the NFL). Harris isn’t thick enough or pure speed fast enough to be like Tyreek, but Harris is in the realm in the church but not the same pew…and I’d say Harris is a better pure WR than Tyreek, but Hill is the freak of freaks with his speed/agility.
He could have 3 catches for 30 yards and no TDs this week, and you’ll scoff at him as another RC delusion, and it could be…wouldn’t be the first time -- but whether he breaks out to a big game/play Week 10 or the following…I sense something is happening/building here. Something that can work for FF and might give you some big pop play/FF scoring while now starting to form a base of not being a zero on the downside…that he’s ‘the guy’, in a sense, for this passing game.
With Alvin Kamara out…might Harris see more touches Week 10?
Deonte Harris quick bio with some interesting college info/stats: https://youtu.be/jaB85XNdFpY
-- Mark Ingram (9-43-0, 5-21-0/5) will take the bulk of the backfield work Week 10 with Kamara out. Ingram has rolled right back into his old role and the Saints have no other RB of note to lean on. Josh Adams isn’t ready, and they never push Ty Montgomery.
-- Sean Payton is sticking with Trevor Siemian (25-41 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) at QB. I was wondering if Taysom Hill (2-2 for 33 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) caught Payton’s attention with his brief, but sweet work 3rd-quarter of this game, or on fears the Saints have no offense with AK out Week 10 so maybe Hill would be a wrinkle…but, no it’s Siemian for Week 10.
Watching this game…Siemian was fine. But nothing special. BUT is a coach’s dream running the playbook, being smart with the ball, etc. Sean Payton has had to make two QB decisions in 2021, and both times he chose not-Taysom, so unless Siemian goes down or they lose 2-3 games in a row…the Taysom story is about over (at QB). Next year, the Saints will sign a free agent and then it will really be over.
-- If I were making a list of 10 candidates for league MVP through nine weeks, I think Cordarrelle Patterson (9-10-0, 6-126-0/6) would have to be on it.
Succeeding at WR, RB, and kick returner…and teams are changing their defensive plans around him. Pretty amazing.
My top MVP guys right now might be (off the cuff)…
Derrick Henry
Kyler Murray
Lamar Jackson
Tom Brady
Josh Allen
Cordarrelle Patterson
Tyreek Hill (triple teamed often)
Kyle Pitts (instantly double teamed from day one)
Alvin Kamara
Michael Pittman (now getting the double treatment)
-- Russell Gage (7-64-0/8) takes over as the Falcons #1 WR, of sorts, with Calvin Ridley gone. He’s a solid WR2-3 play in PPR. gage had that odd zero catch game Week 8, but in Week 7 and 9 = 5.5 rec., 65.5 yards, 0.5 TDs per game. I know, I know...he's too boring for you...you want to chase Brandon Aiyuk putting up the same numbers (at best) on a worse passing game because the guys on Fantasy TV and print are really into Aiyuk making a reemergence...and they don't ever mention Gage at all.
Olamide Zaccheaus (3-58-2/3) made the most of his extra opportunity here. Facing Dallas this week…usually the guys not covered by Trevon Diggs have nice games, OZ might have another useful one Week 10.
Diggs may be on Kyle Pitts (3-62-0/7) this week…that’s why I say Pitts is an MVP candidate. He gets more coverage respect than any player I’m watching weekly except for Tyreek Hill and Michael Pittman.
Pitts had an OK game here, but he dropped a wide-open, perfectly thrown first pass of the game for 35+ yards, which would have (in theory) given him a 100+ yard game again. Pitts is going to be a mega star…maybe, depending upon if he can get some more single coverage in the years to come.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = Tre’Quan
60 = Callaway
25 = Stills
23 = Harris
17 = Taysom
15 = K White
52 = Kamara
26 = Ingram
48 = Gage
47 = Sharpe
44 = Pitts
33 = CPatt
33 = Mk D
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Jaguars 9, Bills 6
How did this happen? Were the Bills really outplayed by the Jaguars? Lots of questions after such a shocker.
I would say ‘yes and no’ that the Jags outplayed the Bills here. Yes, for the most part…the Jaguars played toe-to-toe here, but ‘no’ in that Buffalo ran more plays, outgained the Jags easily, and converted a much higher percentage of 3rd downs. In the end, Buffalo got brutalized with penalties at the wrong times, allowing JAX to convert 1st downs off penalties and throwing their own selves into 1st and 2nd and 3rd and long in key spots. Plus, Josh Allen had two terrible picks trying to make plays in a muddy situation.
I think, in the end, the Bills thought they could go and win this any time they wanted and when they were making their move there were some strange, ill-timed penalties or turnovers that happened to completely switch the momentum. The Bills LOST this game more than Jacksonville won it.
Jacksonville was weak on offense but good on defense pressuring Josh Allen most of the day with just 4 pass rushers and some well-times 5th blitzer. A gold star for the defensive coordinator to halt the Bills, but within that there was plenty of good fortune with penalties and receivers dropping 1st-down passes on 3rd-down, etc. The Jags are now (2-6) and are still pretty bad, arguably the worst team in football still. They might cap off at 3-4 wins this season.
The Bills fall to (5-3) with (5-4) New England suddenly right up their backside. The Bills are better than the Patriots, so when they meet two times ahead…Buffalo should at least split, if not sweep NE and put down the uprising. We project Buffalo with 12 wins…still with a chance to get that #1 seed if they can get to 13 wins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- NO worries on Josh Allen (31-47 for 264 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs, 5-51-0) after this tape watch. He’s gotta be the #1 QB for Fantasy right now, considering the fall of Mahomes/KC, the injury to Kyler, etc.
Allen was fine…MVP-like in carrying this team, but he got pressured a bunch, tried to make some slick throws under duress where he wasn’t set to make the play. Cole Beasley flat-out dropped a 15-yard pass for a key 3rd-down conversion…that doesn’t happen often, would’ve kept the drive going for more numbers. Jacksonville stoned the goal line efforts right away on the first drive, leaving Buffalo to settle for an FG…after a throw to a receiver left inches away from a TD.
It just wasn’t Josh Allen’s day. Use this game outcome to go buy low as possible on Allen.
-- Speaking of QBs…
Speaking of situations where the #2 QB is working better than the #1 QB a la Mike White v. Zach Wilson…
C.J. Beathard (2-2 for 33 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) was forced into the game off a Trevor Lawrence in-game injury that looked bad, and Beathard came right in looking like a stronger-armed, way more aggressive/confident version of Lawrence. I’m not joking or try to poke fun at Trevor…in a flash, the Jags offense changed.
CJB led a hurry-up offense right before halftime, and he waltzed them down the field and planted a beautiful 35-yard TD pass on the run, on the money, in-stride to Jamal Agnew…who dropped it. The play was stricken from the records by a roughing the passer…and then Carlos Hyde fumbled it away the next play. Then Lawrence returned to action on the next drive.
This will all be forgotten.
I won’t forget.
No one will care that I won’t forget.
It was only a couple of plays.
But put that with this…
-- Carlos Hyde (21-67-0, 1-6-0/2) ran tough against a top NFL defense…he looked just as good/better than James Robinson (DNP).
No one will care.
The Jaguars looked better on offense with their backup QB and RB.
Urban Meyer won’t care…didn’t notice. He’s got bar business to attend to.
James Robinson will be pushed back to the starting lineup not at 100% this week, regardless.
-- The two players Trevor Lawrence is getting more and more comfortable with…
1) Jamal Agnew (3-27-0/5)…his go-to lean over Marvin Jones (3-21-0/5) now. This was another game where Agnew led the WRs in targets. Agnew looks terrific. He is playing with max effort to take advantage of this golden career opportunity. He let a 4-62-1 game slip through his hands on that CJB bomb.
Whether you ‘trust’ him or not, he’s the #1 target among Jags WRs. That ain’t nothing…and he’s talented. It’s Trevor Lawrence that’s his main problem.
2) Dan Arnold (4-60-0/7) played really well last week and was good here too, leading the Jags in targets among all players.
Since their Week 7 BYE…so, two games since they had two weeks/extra time to redesign their offense, etc., the targets in the last two games (total):
17 = Agnew (+1 rush attempt for 18 touches)
17 = Arnold
13 = M Jones
8 = Shenault
It’s the Arnold and Agnew show for Lawrence, because of his limited arm.
-- Do we trust the Jags defense now? Well, last week they were humiliated by Geno Smith, so…probably not. However, their front/D-Line is getting so good…they’re a top 12 run defense by yards allowed per game BUT now #3 best in yards per carry allowed. They face the hottest back in the NFL…Jonathan Taylor Week 10.
Remember when people thought Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the best Dynasty RB coming out of the 2020 NFL Draft? Is he even in the top 3 from that draft? Top 5?
The Jags have a nice O-Line and D-Line…that’s usually a recipe for NFL success. Just their QB is not very good, and their head coach is awful/a detriment.
-- Jags DB Rudy Ford (8 tackles, 1 INT, 3 PDs) seems to be emerging as ‘Urban’s guy’. He’s the one player I see actually talking to Meyer like they’re on the same page/buddies. Everyone else pretty much avoids Urban.
Ford is a growing thing the past 4 games, going from 9% to 36% to 63% to 99% of the snaps played, and Week 9 was his first start.
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = Singletary
19 = Z Moss
51 = Marvin J
48 = Shenault
33 = Agnew
19 = Treadwell
35 = Arnold
29 = Farrell
27 = Manhertz
