Game overview:
Washington won this game, but the Browns were the far superior team. Cleveland drove right down the field on the opening drive, but tried to run it in a couple of times on goal-to-go situations, and got stuffed with a backup RB they were trying to give chances to…and then for-the-love-of-god RB John Kelly, the single worst player in the NFL preseason for the past 3 years running, got stuffed as well.
It was 2-0 Browns after one quarter/3 innings…with the Browns playing some starters, and Washington playing some as well. But the Browns pulled their 1st-team quickly and their backups fought Washington’s 1st-team for a bit, and that’s when Washington started moving the ball -- and it wasn’t pretty for Washington…several near-picks.
Washington took advantage of Josh Dobbs at QB for the Browns and went off to a 17-2 lead. When the Browns countered with Dorian Thompson-Robinson late, they suddenly closed in to win the game but more dropped picks, another game with a missed field goal for Cade York, and a failed two-point conversion at the end gave Washington the win -- but they weren’t the real winners.
The Browns look VERY good…on both sides of the ball. Their only issue in the preseason is when they put in Dobbs-Mond at QB and give John Kelly too many touches (and they will all not be on the team soon)…outside of that, everything else looks really good…especially their defense.
The Browns are legit. Washington is legit too…legit for last place in the NFC East, no doubt. No way out of it. The biggest lock of 2023…Commanders will finish last in the NFC East. The other teams in the division are all going to the playoffs, unless Dallas gets mass injured early.
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- My biggest agenda for this study/watch was to scout how Sam Howell (9-12 for 77 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) was progressing, and well…
Sam needs another couple of years of development probably…and he might do OK now if he had a nice O-Line, but he doesn’t. Howell is playing the typical game manager QB thing…quick hitters, short game playbook, and when Howell has to throw it downfield…he has a weak O-Line to not give him time and he’s not as comfortable/experienced/lethal the deeper downfield he throws. He was a neat deep ball college thrower…but it’s different in the pros.
Howell is likely to fail because of the O-Line and O-C/HC…and Ron Rivera is under the gun, so he’s likely to have a quick trigger to pull to go to Jacoby Brissett (6-10 for 75 yards, 0 TD/1 INT). And Brissett isn’t great but he’s better today than Howell, and coach’s love Brissett’s demeanor. I also would not be surprised if Brissett started Week 1.
I’m looking at Arizona +6 or more at Washington Week 1 as a possible tiny play/bet. I want to watch more preseason action before I lock that in. If Arizona says they are starting Tune, the line will go to 7+ for Arizona getting points, and then I do like it.
-- Dorian Thompson-Robinson (9-10 for 102 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is the backup rookie QB getting all the love in the media, and that’s fine -- but unless you have DTR as a handcuff protection for Deshaun, and you took DTR in Dynasty as a flier on our grades/rankings, now might be a time to flip him while he’s a hot thing of the moment.
The media is acting like he’s special but he’s just ‘fine’, as a backup. Would be a capable fill-in starter if needed but he may be at his peak Rookie Derangement Syndrome valuation he’ll ever be at.
DTR is preseason succeeding in large part due to Right Tackle Dawand Jones…as I discussed all last week and back to the NFL Draft, he’s an elite player. An NFL top 100 already today…they need to re-vote for that thing.
I could watch Dawand Jones play in the preseason games all day. The Browns got a game changing, elite top 5 critical player from the NFL Draft on day three of the draft. Insanity. He is allowing DTR (and anyone else) to play comfortably at QB…whereas Sam Howell has to move (too) fast before his O-Line gets him killed on every longer drop back.
One other side note on the QBs…Deshaun Watson (3-3 for 12 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 3-20-0) looks fine. I give in. I want to hate him…and this stuffy offense, but it’s the stuffy offense that is going to allow him to thrive because the Browns DO have the O-Line (maybe the best O-Line in all of football) to play the quick, safe passing game and heavy run game. Watson will have loads of time in the pocket, as needed…and in this meaningless preseason game, on their opening drive where they marched right down the field, Watson ran the ball three times. He’s willing to run, he has a great O-Line, he has weapons around him -- it’s all good for Deshaun.
-- Washington RB review…
Brian Robinson (3-16-0, 1-0-0/1) started…didn’t look great, because he isn’t.
Antonio Gibson (2-7-0, 2-13-0/2) came in after that briefly…didn’t do anything noteworthy.
Rookie Chris Rodriquez (5-39-0) debuted and worked like he always does -- a professional RB/battering ram. He looked like he belonged right away.
Robinson will start Week 1…Gibson will be the passing game back, with erratic targeting…and Rodriquez will be a vulture circling around, waiting for an opportunity.
-- Two ‘flashed’ games in a row for Browns 2021 UDFA WR Austin Watkins (6-71-0/8). He got my attention just a bit in the 2023 HOF game, but now he has my real attention after this game. A great showing here…6’1”/210 with fantastic hands.
Watkins was buried at UAB by being the best WR on a bad passing game attack college offense. He was easy to hide. He’s not hidden any more. Watkins looks like a starter level WR, on the field this preseason. I’d say he has a bright future, but he’s easy to overlook by NFL coaches…he’s going to have to get a chance the old-fashioned way: injury above him forces him into playing time and then he takes off from there.
Watkins has movement skills and great hands and is just a nice-sized, solid professional WR…so it appears from this preseason.
-- Browns 2nd-year WR David Bell (3-33-1/4) had a decent game. He’s a solid-not-special WR…who doesn’t look near as promising or exciting as what Austin Watkins is doing this preseason.
-- My only Washington receiver note…
2nd-year TE Cole Turner (4-31-0/4) looks like he has added some bulk and is trying to become the new Logan Thomas (DNP). Thomas has that role, his role, upon return…but as he is an injury risk, it creates some opportunity/hope for Turner waiting in the wings.
-- Before we talk about a Browns defender/IDP specifically, I wanted to note again…this is a really good, active Browns defense. Not bad for DST…BUT they start out with Burrow-Pickett off the bat AND a BYE Week 5. Around the Weeks 1-2 and 5 issue…it’s not a bad schedule otherwise.
The IDP who stood out here is a UDFA rookie DB who I thought was a top five or so SAF asset in the draft but had to downgrade him some in case the NFL ignoring him pre-Draft was injury info they had that I didn’t…Ohio State DB Ronnie Hickman (5 tackles, 2 INTs). Well, he looks fine to me…if there is any medical to worry about, it didn’t show up here.
Not only did the Browns get a top 5 draft asset in Dawand Jones for a day three pick…they also got a top DB (SAF or nickel) in Ronnie Hickman after the draft. And they had Austin Watkins fall in their laps free of charge as well (SF and TB had him first). It’s sometimes better to be lucky than good.
Imagine that…the Browns and ‘lucky’ in the same statement.
-- Cade York (0/1 FG, 1/1 XP) missed another field goal. He really sliced his miss this game. There is concern, but what can they do about it? He has a great leg and good history. They’ll just need to work with him and pray.
If I were an NFL head coach, I’d go for 4th-downs like crazy to minimize the kicker position /dependency and make my team more exciting/resilient by constantly going for 4th-downs and 2-point conversions.
