- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Giants 23, Raiders 16
Most people saw this Giants-Raiders end with a lower/average scoring win in a game involving mostly not used FF players…and no one really cared much about it. Darren Waller and/or Graham Gano, and that’s about the meat of it for most for FF interest (by and large for FFMers). No one really watched this with great anticipation, probably not even respective fans of the team.
I’m not immune to that vibe either. I should’ve paid more attention to this one – this game was a nice watch, two good teams fought hard, and I have more FF-notes than I expected.
I am a sudden NYG fan because I think I am seeing the hidden gem team of the future. The penny stock to buy and watch it inflate to $1.00+ down the road. A Giants team most non-Giants fans ignore. A Giants team that most Giants fans hate. But I think the Giants have all the pieces for a playoff run, if they can get those pieces healthy…and they have all the pieces of an NFC East winner in 2022 if they upgrade their O-Line…and a possible Super Bowl run in years to come, if they then find a better QB.
It was a treat to watch because this was a good football game involving two really ‘good’ (not great), tough teams – they went to war and MY Giants won…so, that was also fun.
And the Giants won in a way you can be football-impressed with – led by the defense. Vegas drove the ball down on the Giants like every other drive it seemed, and it wasn’t easy to drive against NYG, but Vegas is good…and as they got close/into the red zone the Giants bowed up and slammed the door shut on scoring TDs, instead holding the Raiders to field goals or nothing, which allowed NYG to put up enough offense to pull out the win.
It was an ending befitting the whole game flow – the Raiders down 7 with 3+ minutes to go starting a drive at their own 25-yard line. Down the field they grinded…into the red zone, 1st & 10 at the Giants 13-yard line with 0:50 left. On 1st-down, the Giants suffocated all the receiving options and flushed Carr to force a throw away. 2nd & 10 from the 13/the next play, a strip sack by Quincy Roche and the Giants recovered – ball game.
It was ‘so (my) Giants’ for the ending – the strip sack by Roche…a rookie pass rusher that the Steelers cut in the preseason, a guy who anyone who was looking (which means no one in the NFL except Gettleman) could’ve seen he was dominating left tackles and showed a real spark…as I pointed out repeatedly this August. The Steelers went on to sign awful Melvin Ingram to fill their pass rush needs, and then they gave up on Ingram a few weeks later. The Giants claimed Roche and he has earned more and more playing time and is now contributing big time on their D-Line. I wonder what the Steelers GM thinks every time Roche makes a play every week for NYG. I hope he gets indigestion…and ridicule from his co-workers.
Ahh, who am I kidding…I know the Steelers GM isn’t watching football games other than his team on Sundays, from the luxury box, between trips to the buffet spread and playing Candy Crush on his cellphone. He probably isn’t aware Roche is even on the Giants…or still in the NFL.
This was a big win for NYG…still reeling from all their injuries, and they went and took down a division leader. NYG really should have beaten KC Week 8, and then knocked down LV here…and been on a three-game win streak. They’re that good (not great). Now, a bye week and then the (3-6) Giants go to Tampa Bay…a game where they might have Saquon and their starting left tackle (A. Thomas) back with a healthy Golladay-Toney. If the G-Men somehow roughhouse Tompa Bay at Tampa Bay on a Monday Night game, Katie bar the door, this NYG team is a playoff contender.
It’s a tall order to go to TB and beat them on MNF Week 11, but we’ll see what the injury reports say. NYG is the kinda team that could give Tompa fits because the G-men are the toughest team that I watch each week, outside of Arizona…and they might harass pretty boy Tom like it’s 2012.
The Giants need to keep Joe Judge and Dave Gettleman (who is doing some of the best personnel work in all the NFL), and ditch Jason Garrett and not re-sign Saquon Barkley to a deal and find a veteran quarterback to replace Dan Dimes, and presto-chango, Giants win the NFC East in 2022.
All my Giants talk is overshadowing a very good Las Vegas team…a very legit team to win the AFC West. The best thing that ever happened to this Raiders team was Gruden getting dumped and installing Rich Bisaccia as head coach. The Raiders are a junior version of the Giants – they’re good overall, scrappy-tough, play with a chip, have a bad O-Line, have a gritty defense that doesn’t get enough credit, but where LV is lesser than NYG in most every position group -- they have the way better QB.
The Raiders are now (5-3) and can take a huge step forward, and I think they will, Week 10 by slaughtering Kansas City. It’s a tough schedule ahead, and we project LV to come up short of the division with a (9-8) record, but 10 wins is not out of the question, nor is 8 wins and out of the playoff picture. Week 10 is everything for Las Vegas. Lose and they will likely tailspin. Win and they may get launched forward as the AFC West favorites and a new swagger.
Seriously, I’m a Giants fan now…the G-Men…the Me-Men (no that won’t work, that sounds too…well you know…email Jon Gruden and see what he says). Send me all the cool Giants gear. My son is a long-time Giants fan, but he couldn’t name 3 players on the team…but we can bond over it now that he’s an old married man (almost married 4 whole days now). *Note: I’m a fan of no team in reality. I won’t be jaded by such personal bias. More so I’ll complain often about how the NYG organization didn’t capitalize on the opportunity I am seeing.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s start by discussing Kadarius Toney (1-9-0/1, one rush for -2 yds, one pass attempt, sacked).
He ‘started’…that’s the good news.
The bad news is everything else.
Remember Week 5 versus Dallas when he was literally the best, most dangerous WR in football? No? Well, Jason Garrett and Daniel Jones don’t either.
If Toney is fully practicing, and you’re (NYG) starting him…how in the world are you not getting him the ball a ton? Only in Jason Garrett’s world. I was DELIGHTED and impressed when I saw Garrett push everything to Toney Week 5…and now I take it all back because in this critical game, Toney was a ghost. Sure, Garrett has his one clever ‘trick pass’ play with Toney per game (by NY State law, you must AND can only use that one time a game) but other than that, apparently…Toney is ‘bad at football’ now, not worthy of touches. Kyle Rudolph (4-20-0/5) led the team in targets, which is what makes Garrett and Dimes idiots. They won, so what do I know?
Toney started the first play and then wasn’t seen again for several more plays and ended up playing 50% of the snaps and getting one whole target. You can’t FF-trust Toney until we see a change in usage.
I can tell you this, Toney looks fantastic. He’s moving fine/great. His route, his cut on his one and only target/catch – beautiful…unstoppable…can get open on anyone at any time. In Dynasty, go grab him and park him on your bench for the future…should be cheaper to do so since we’re five weeks from whence he was great that one time. Typing this made me think – Elijah Moore had that 2 TD game last week…I’d send my Elijah for their Kadarius, straight up, in an instant in Dynasty. And that’s probably the right value today, and maybe overtrading for Toney…which with Toney, I am fine with over-trading for a bit in Dynasty.
-- You know what NYG WR looks really good…Kenny Golladay (3-28-0/3). He is moving great. He is acting like a #1 WR. So, why a ‘meh’ FF-game?
Golladay, like Toney, only played 50%+ of the snaps in this game. And, oh yeah…Daniel Jones sucks out loud.
Jones is only good, and thus Golladay is in a better spot too, when Saquon is there to take heat off Jones so he can stay in the pocket longer to make comfortable throws. Jones is such a puss…so SAWFT that he bails on any pressure…and the Raiders have a good, pressuring defense (and NYG’s line is not great). But when Barkley is back, defenses shutter. When Andrew Thomas is back, even better. When NYG is at full strength, Jones is able to sit clean in pockets and slice and dice like it’s a 7-on-7 game, like he did earlier this season.
But Golladay, especially those of you in Dynasty that can afford to sit on him into 2022, he’s a WR1 talent and movement skills (and experience being a WR1) in hiding. For redraft, we have to wait for Barkley to return…and for KG to play 80%+ of the snaps and for Jason Garrett to get his head out of his arse.
-- ‘My running backs are killing me…’ you proclaim, as you have Devontae Booker (21-99-0, 3-23-0/3) as the #15 PPG PPR back in Fantasy since Week 5. Scoring per game ahead of Josh Jacobs, James Robinson, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Christian McCaffrey among others.
But he’s going away soon! Yeah…and? What RBs aren’t going away for games at a time? People just lost Alvin Kamara and Damien Harris this week. Dalvin Cook might wind up suspended. Derrick Henry gone. Edmonds on IR. McCaffrey just got back from missing a ton of games. Be happy with the run you’ve had with Booker.
Oh, and it’s not assured Saquon will be back Week 11…or 12…or ever in 2021…and if he is back, what’s it gonna be? Two games before he’s hurt again? Two quarters?
I’d hold Booker even when Barkley returns. He’s a quad away…
-- You know what RB looks really good? Kenyan Drake (4-30-0, 6-70-0/8). He looks the best I’ve ever seen him…AND he looks way better than Josh Jacobs (13-76-0, 4-19-0/4). AND that fact cost Las Vegas the game, potentially.
In a key spot, later in the game, Las Vegas driving on a 3rd-down and short in the red zone…and it was Josh Jacobs, not 3rd-down back Drake (who was killing it all game), who was in the game. Jacobs got the pass in that key spot, but couldn’t pull away from the defender, so it was a quick catch-and-tackle short of a 1st-down. I think Drake would have been further out in front of the defender, made the same catch, and walked into the end zone untouched. Jacobs was blanketed and tackled right away leading to a field goal. It’s the little things that drive me nuts in the NFL…things you would think they know but they never do.
Drake’s splits on the season, pre-and post-new coaching staff…
6.5 PPR PPG on 4.8 carries, 2.6 rec. (3.6 targets), 39.0 total yards, 0.0 TDs per game with Gruden
18.2 PPR PPG on 7.3 carries, 3.8 rec. (4.3 targets), 84.0 total yards, 1.0 TDs per game with Bisaccia
Since Week 6, Drake is the #9 PPR RB in Fantasy.
-- Henry Ruggs gone? It’s not Bryan Edwards (0-0-0/4) time, as I instantly said when the Ruggs news hit – that it’s not more Edwards it’s MORE Hunter Renfrow (7-49-1/9) time. Renfrow is Carr’s BFF target. A mini-Cooper (get it) Kupp for Carr.
With the new head coach, Renfrow has booked three games averaging 5.7 rec. (7.3 targets), 47.7 yards, 0.33 TDs per game. First game without Ruggs, Renfrow matched his career high for targets in a game (9).
…and note, the Carr throws to Edwards were so bad in this game (as usual), such a non-connection between them…I’m done with Edwards. He’s only if you have DEEP rosters to hang onto to see if a miracle happens in 2022.
-- I LOVE the way MY New York Giants are playing on defense right now. Are they a viable FF DST to use ahead? Not really.
Week 11 at TB is not sublime.
Weeks 12-13 v. PHI and MIA are looking decent.
Weeks 14-15 with LAC-DAL is a no-go.
Weeks 16-17 at PHI, at CHI ends it nicely…IF the G-Men are still in it.
-- What about the scrappy, plucky Raiders-DST? Their schedule is mostly brutal ahead. Week 13 hosting Washington is a spot start if needed.
-- Quick bonus on the Robert Woods ACL…
It’s a nice bump for Van Jefferson to assume the Woods role even more. Sure, OBJ will see time and suck some oxygen out of the room…but like with DJax, the crappy WRs of ancient lore will see a quick spike of activity and then everyone realizes they are wastes of space and they move on to playing bit roles.
I like Kupp getting the main attention in coverage, and then OBJ…because the most clueless, behind-the-times people in football are defensive coordinators (who still think guys like Sammy Watkins is something to fear/plan for) – so they’ll throw attention at dropsy OBJ too, which should allow Van Jefferson to eat up catches with the weakest coverage of the group.
When I see the name Van Jefferson right now, I think = Robert Woods output hopes. We’ll see on MNF, but that will probably be a force-to-OBJ fest at first, but as the season resumes to normal Jefferson bumps up.
Snap Counts of Interest:
31 = Golladay
31 = Slayton
31 = Toney
21 = Collin Johnson
05 = Ross
46 = Engram
31 = Rudolph
66 = Zay Jones
64 = Bryan Edwards
45 = Renfrow
34 = Jacobs
31 = Drake
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Broncos 30, Cowboys 16
I could go either way with analyzing this game. It’s in the eye of the beholder, as most football things are.
I could say that Denver played the best game I’ve seen them play in 2021, and they just went out and stomped Dallas.
I could also say that Dallas had every minor thing that could go wrong ended up going wrong and that boosted Denver early and then Dallas started pressing and Denver was ‘feeling it’ and it just got away from Dallas. Just ‘one of those games’.
Dallas aided the Denver assault with Dak just missing open deep balls on receivers a few times…Dallas got hit with penalties at the wrong time, etc. -- all allowing Denver to take a 16-0 halftime lead. The epitome of this game occurred to start the 2nd-half. Dallas stopped Denver’s 2nd-half opening drive deep in Broncos territory. Denver was punting to set Dallas up with (likely) great field position. Dallas then actually blocked the punt…and then IT happened.
Dallas blocked it but they touched the ball downfield and then Denver ended up recovering it in the end, and it was ruled a change of possession on the Dallas downfield touch, and so the ball went back to Denver for a 1st-down from where they recovered it. I don’t think I’d ever seen a blocked punt turn into a turnover back to the kicking team. That play took the wind out of the Dallas sails, as more bad luck ensued from there and Denver was on fire and Dallas was defeated and then next thing you know it’s 30-0 Denver with 6+ minutes remaining. https://youtu.be/THU4BXYNSMQ
Denver was not 30-0 better than Dallas here…they aren’t 30-0 better than Dallas in general. It was just one of those games. Dallas laid an egg, had bad things go against them, and Denver gained swagger and just put Dallas away.
Denver should be credited with an inspired performance and a very good defensive effort. Their secondary is really getting strong. Denver is not a great team, and they’ll probably lay an egg this week in response, but they are good enough to hang with any team…just not good enough to win the Super Bowl or anything.
The Broncos are now (5-4) and back on track for my preseason playoff prediction for them. I still think they are not-great, but it was always about them being OK with a great schedule. I still believe in my statement after Weeks 4-5…Denver is not even good enough to chop through to the playoffs even with the schedule boost. I think they’ll hit 7-8 wins and just fall short…but 9+ wins and a wild card is not totally out of the question.
Dallas is a different team without their LT Tyron Smith. They’re 7-11 when Smith is out since 2019 and 13-9 with him starting. Dallas is set to be without him again in Week 10. Dallas is now (6-2) and is still on track for a 10-12 win season, with a chance at a #1 seed if they can beat up all the NFC East foes they have coming up and take down Arizona Week 17. However many wins they wind up with, Dallas should win the NFC East easily (unless Dak goes down or Tyron is down and out).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Dak Prescott (19-39 for 232 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) did not look hindered in any way this game from his calf injury. He definitely didn’t have his best game and he missed two deep ball throws by a yard that would’ve changed the game, so who knows. But I didn’t see any cause for Dak concern here. Just good Denver D, a couple bad throws, and a couple bad drops by receivers.
-- Courtland Sutton (1-9-0/2) does concern me…concerns me that he’s a nice #1 NFL WR for his team, but they don’t FF-lean on or force it to him like other great QB-WR combos. This wasn’t Trevon Diggs wiping him out, although Diggs was on him maybe 50%+ of the game and thus Teddy avoided – but I think Teddy is just into working what makes sense and not leaning on/pressing for Sutton…smart for NFL purposes, bad for FF purposes. Sutton had a nice slant route in the end zone for an easy TD, but Diggs assaulted him for a P.I. and lost the TD event.
Sutton is a solid WR2 with random event FF-games…like a Terry McLaurin.
…or like Amari Cooper (2-37-0/5). Amari-Courtland-McLaurin…three talented #1 WRs who are producing WR2-3 numbers with some spike WR1 weeks with way too many WR3-4 weeks mixed in to make a WR2 average output, but it’s usually feast or famine.
Credit to Denver CB Ronald Darby, who was eating up Amari when he was on him. It might be that Amari isn’t 100% healthy…and/or Amari isn’t 100% into football right now. He looks very uninspired/low key in games right now.
-- Like I say every week, Javonte Williams (17-111-0) looks amazing but he’s just the co-lead, the 1b to the Melvin Gordon 1a for Vic Fangio.
I wonder with the weak O-C Pat Shurmur out this week if the new O-C isn’t as much of a dope and leans on Javonte more. Doubtful, but hopeful…I guess…
-- Albert Okwuegbunam (4-25-0/5) should be/could be starting for 10+ other teams in the league right now, but he’s stuck behind Noah Fant (DNP-COVID) here. He’s a bit stunted in his growth, stuck as a backup/secondary TE here. We won’t see what Albert O. is fully capable of for another three years when he’s a free agent in 2024.
Dalton Schultz (4-54-0/5) isn’t anywhere near the talent of Okwuegbunam, but he’s in a better spot for FF. I’m a buyer on the cheap on any Schultz weakness. He’s a top 5-8 PPR TE for 2021. Not the greatest asset in the world, but stable…as stable as about anything else at TE these days.
-- The Broncos-DST is good-not-great, but they are improving as players get healthy and young players are starting to mature. They just played their best game of 2021…after ditching Von Miller. So, before you think the Rams just won the Super Bowl signing Von…
Two young Denver IDPs emerging a bit from the recent game tape:
1) New starting ILB, rookie Baron Browning (6 tackles) looks promising. He’s a big, long, athletic linebacker who has been shaky on actual football IQ/output, but he’s showing promise thrust into the starting lineup due to all the Denver LB injuries this season.
2) Rookie SAF Caden Sterns (3 tackles, 1 PD, 1 INT) is a future Pro Bowler who would be already starting for most teams in the league. He’s so good, so smooth. He had an excellent interception in this game to really put out the Dallas fire in the 2nd-half, and then had a pick-six opportunity late in the game but it was barely tipped by the WR just as he was about to snatch it coming full speed into it.
-- This game was a big hit to any Dallas-DST momentum anyone thought they had from last week shutting down Minnesota. They were completely obliterated on the ground by a bad Denver O-Line with three backups having to play on that O-Line. Now, the Cowboys have lost Randy Gregory for a while on top of missing their best pass rusher Demarcus Lawrence for most of this season.
Dallas is down their two best DEs (not counting Parsons switching there) and down their best O-Linemen (Tyron) for Week 10. If Dallas stumbles and loses to Atlanta this week…there could be trouble ahead for them cruising to the playoffs, and definitely they are not getting a #1 seed.
Speaking of Micah Parsons (10 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3 TFLs)…he’s starting to put away the DROY award bet this year. Thank you to Master Chris from Bet The Close Podcast for that identification of the weird/favorable odds on him to win it.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Ced Wilson
44 = Lamb
36 = Amari
25 = Noah Brown
33 = Elliott
24 = Pollard
65 = Sutton
48 = Patrick
47 = Jeudy
22 = Hinton
41 = Gordon
37 = Javonte
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Dolphins 17, Texans 9
You've got to be kidding me with this one. I've watched several boring games this year, but this one was quite possibly the worst. The score was 17-6 at halftime...
There's not much to say about this one. 5 INT's between them. 4 Fumbles. Just a bit over 500 yards total offense combined. Two of the worst offensive lines in the league. Two of the worst QB's. Probably the absolute worst two groups of skill position players. If you didn't see this one you aren't missing anything.
The only real note I have to mention about this game is that this is the 2nd week in a row that the Miami defense has shown up. They were getting smacked pretty hard early in the year, but it looks like things might finally be coming together. They really fought the Bills hard and completely shut down the Texans here. (Spoiler alert: they crushed the Ravens during their Thursday night game. This trend is real). This might suddenly be a defense that you have to think twice about.
Miami has quite an easy schedule the rest of the year, and if they can get Tua back healthy I could see them finishing up strong with 3 or 4, maybe 5 wins if they get lucky and pulling close to .500.
Houston...well, we all knew this was coming. They were projected to be the worst team in the league during the preseason and they are living up to the low expectations. Only the Lions are possibly worse. This team will be extremely lucky if they can get to 3 or 4 wins.
Fantasy Notes
--How is Myles Gaskin (20-34-1, 6-23-0/6) still a thing? Seriously. You wish your RB's coach loved him as much as Flores loves Gaskin. This guy gets 20 carries while Jordan Howard, David Johnson, and Tyson Williams are lucky to get the time of day. It's borderline criminal. There is 0% chance Gaskin is still starting for Miami in 2022.
*RC NOTE: 0% only if Brian Flores is fired. It’s 100% if Flores is retained.
--How good has Mike Gesicki (4-54-0/8) become? If he had an elite QB this guy could be putting up numbers to match the best Travis Kelce years. Some of the catches he made in this game were unreal. It's been an amazing transformation from the soft, shaky hands TE we saw coming out of college. He's going to finish as a top 5 TE in fantasy this year despite getting so few TD's. Just a QB away in dynasty and he's still quite cheap…
*RC NOTE: I’ve been on the same vibe with Gesicki, but I’m going to make Ross write up/explain Gesicki’s (0-0-0/7) game against Baltimore. Perhaps the most bizarre stat line of the 2021 season.
--The other Dolphin I want for dynasty and redraft is Jaylen Waddle (8-83-0/10). It doesn't matter that he's not the Tyreek clone he was hyped up as during the draft. He's still plenty fast, is a quality receiver, and most importantly his team loves him. Never thought we'd be talking about Waddle as a ppr monster, but that's exactly what he's become.
--I theorized that Phillip Lindsay (8-28-0) would be the primary 1st and 2nd down back after the Ingram trade and that's exactly what we've got here. You'd think that would be good for fantasy, but Houston's line sucks so badly that there's just nowhere to run. Also the team is constantly trailing which forces them to throw more and Lindsay never gets passing game work for some reason. The only weeks where Lindsay might be worth playing in deep weeks is when Houston plays an equally as bad opponent where they can keep the score close.
--David Johnson still looks like one of the better 10 or 12 RB's in the league, but he's splitting too much on this garbage team to matter.
--The only player that should be rostered in normal leagues from Houston is Brandin Cooks (6-56-0/14). He is the engine of the offense, and even though he's drawing top coverage and everyone knows he's getting the ball, he's still been a solid ppr this year even with Tyrod and Mills throwing him the ball.
--3rd string TE Antony Auclair (2-23-0/2) randomly played more snaps than Akins and Jordan here. Not sure what's going on with that. I don't see any reason to think this is an emerging trend or something to jump on.
IDP Notes
--It doesn't always show up on the stat sheet, but Emmanuel Ogbah (4 tackles, 2.5 sacks) has been playing fantastic football this year. It showed up here as he decimated a bad Houston offensive line.
--I love watching Roy Lopez (3 tackles, 1 sack). He is already a load for most interior lineman to handle and he just never stops coming. He's only playing about 30 snaps a game right now, but he's still putting up good numbers despite it. What can he do when he's a starter?
*RC NOTE: See our CFM scouting report on him where we discovered him ahead of the all scouts, and may have been the source that tipped off someone in the Texans personnel department.
Snap Counts of Interest
67 = Brandin Cooks
48 = Nico Collins
34 = Danny Amendola
34 = Antony Auclair
25 = Jordan Akins
20 = Brevin Jordan
31 = David Johnson
21 = Rex Burkhead
14 = Phillip Lindsay
65 = Jaylen Waddle
60 = Mack Hollins
17 = Albert Wilson
59 = Mike Gesicki
45 = Durham Smythe
36 = Adam Shaheen
54 = Myles Gaskin
14 = Salvon Ahmed
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Falcons 27, Saints 25
The Saints are one of those ‘good-not-great’ teams that can beat any top team (crushed Tampa Bay Week 8) and can also lose to any bottom team out of nowhere (losing here to ATL). You never know what Saints team you’re gonna get week-to-week.
The Saints are trying to play this season on a strategy of having a plausible offense (with Trevor Siemian) and solid defense (which varies wildly week-to-week) to back their way into the playoffs. They do not have the firepower to make any noise if they get to the playoffs. The Saints are in no man’s land for the NFL…too good to tank for better draft slotting, and not good enough to take seriously as a title contender. They just kinda exist as this annoyingly good or bad team week-to-week. They have a path to 9-10 wins, and a wild card…but they won’t do much with it if they do get into the playoffs.
The Falcons were up 10-0 at the half, and up 24-6 with 10+ minutes left in the game…but then they did the typical Falcons collapse-with-the-lead and out of nowhere the Saints pulled ahead 25-24 with 1:01 remaining. Cordarrelle Patterson came down with a big/deep ball prayer to get the Falcons into a reasonable FG position with not much time left…and the Falcons ended up hitting the game winning ‘three’ at the buzzer to shock the Saints in New Orleans.
Atlanta climbs to (4-4) and could have been (6-2) with a little luck, or (1-7) with worse luck. They are at .500 today, but I think they’re one of the worst teams in the NFL. But they are still in the playoff race today. The Falcons will win 6-7 games tops.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I may be leading us all off a cliff…or more apropos, I’m offering you some purple Kool-Aid straight from a Jonestown home brewed recipe. Whatever analogy you’d call it, I’m going to make the following comments, I’m going to trust my instincts/scouting, and you decide whether to pick up the cup and drink…
Deonte Harris (6-52-0/8, 1-22-0) is the closest thing to Tyreek Hill there is in the NFL right now. It’s a large gap/distance between them in the race…but Deonte is starting to give me that same hair standing up on my arms feeling like when I saw Tyreek Hill early on in his NFL career.
It’s not so much an ‘on paper’ comp, as it is ‘my eyes’…but to just show the physical comparison data, and the gap between them…
5’6”/171, 4.48 40-time, 2.50 20-yd, 1.51 10-yd, 4.16 shuttle, 6.82 three-cone = Deonte
5’8”/185, 4.29 40-time, 2.51 20-yd, 1.50 10-yd, 4.06 shuttle, 6.53 three-cone = Tyreek
Deonte is working like a cross between a store-brand old Tyreek Hill (years 1-2 in the NFL) and Curtis Samuel 2020 – blazing speed, super high-end ability to stop-start/accelerate and juke, a top punt/kick return threat, BUT (and here’s the key) he’s starting to work like a real NFL WR. He’s running sublime routes and breaking them off so quickly or changing directions that no corners can keep up with him.
And the great news is, the QBs are starting to notice. Harris has played three normal (for him) games since Week 4 (got hurt Week 5 in-game, missed Week 7 and had a Week 6 bye). The Saints top 3 in targeting in those three specific games…
23 targets = Deonte (14 catches)
13 targets = Callaway (8 catches)
11 targets = Kamara (7 catches)
It’s not even close how much the Saints are shifting to Harris. And it’s happening with him working with Winston and Siemian.
Harris is taking some bubble screens, because he should take 3-4 per game, but more and more he’s running downfield routes and the QBs are using him the most for real NFL throws. He’s been on the brink of breaking small catches turning into long run TDs. He’s a deep ball threat, a reliable 1st-down maker with his hands/routes, and an excellent bubble screen option who can take jet sweeps (hit on a 22-yarder in this game). He can do it all.
The crazy thing is, he’s doing all this while playing about 30% of the snaps in games. People freak out about lower snap counts for WRs/RBs, and I get it, but I’ll make the same argument here that I did when everyone in FF analysis was wanting to deny Cordarrelle Patterson for the same rationale – snaps don’t matter as much when the player is consistently touching the ball when he IS IN for his snaps. Deonte has nearly doubled the next closest player on the Saints in targets in his recent three ‘normal play’ games (Wks 4, 8, 9) while only playing 38% of the snaps in those games on average (49-32-30).
Most people will say – it’s a red flag/it can’t keep up playing low snap counts. I get that. It’s totally natural. But I believe in the thought process that he’s getting good targets despite the low targets, and it’s getting consistent, and then…WHAT IF THEY UP HIS SNAPS (what I said about CPatt early on in the 2021 season)?
Harris is moving towards the Saints top non-RB weapon and Sean Payton knows it, and the QBs know it, but they do need to manage his reps because he has had history of getting nicked up – they need to treat him with some ‘management’, and you only ‘manage’ things you care about/need.
Some random Harris factoids…
2019 NFL All-Rookie team
2019 1st-team punt returner voted by AP (and many others)
2019 All-Pro as a return man
2020 hurt (minor injury) most of the season.
2021 Currently leading the NFL in kick return avg (27.6) despite not returning one for a TD yet.
He has caught 75.8% of his career 62 targets.
He has run the ball 12 times in his career, for 105 yards (8.8 ypc)
He is YTD #3 on the Saints in targets and catches, despite having missed three games, essentially -- but making his big move as of late in targets and catches.
Despite missing two games and playing under 50% of the snaps all season…he currently leads the Saints in receiving yards (323) and yards per reception (15.4).
We’re not on the verge of a Tyreek Hill 2020 or 2021, were more kinda-sorta early stages Tyreek…but no one was like Tyreek or will be (of anyone I see in the NFL). Harris isn’t thick enough or pure speed fast enough to be like Tyreek, but Harris is in the realm in the church but not the same pew…and I’d say Harris is a better pure WR than Tyreek, but Hill is the freak of freaks with his speed/agility.
He could have 3 catches for 30 yards and no TDs this week, and you’ll scoff at him as another RC delusion, and it could be…wouldn’t be the first time -- but whether he breaks out to a big game/play Week 10 or the following…I sense something is happening/building here. Something that can work for FF and might give you some big pop play/FF scoring while now starting to form a base of not being a zero on the downside…that he’s ‘the guy’, in a sense, for this passing game.
With Alvin Kamara out…might Harris see more touches Week 10?
Deonte Harris quick bio with some interesting college info/stats: https://youtu.be/jaB85XNdFpY
-- Mark Ingram (9-43-0, 5-21-0/5) will take the bulk of the backfield work Week 10 with Kamara out. Ingram has rolled right back into his old role and the Saints have no other RB of note to lean on. Josh Adams isn’t ready, and they never push Ty Montgomery.
-- Sean Payton is sticking with Trevor Siemian (25-41 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) at QB. I was wondering if Taysom Hill (2-2 for 33 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) caught Payton’s attention with his brief, but sweet work 3rd-quarter of this game, or on fears the Saints have no offense with AK out Week 10 so maybe Hill would be a wrinkle…but, no it’s Siemian for Week 10.
Watching this game…Siemian was fine. But nothing special. BUT is a coach’s dream running the playbook, being smart with the ball, etc. Sean Payton has had to make two QB decisions in 2021, and both times he chose not-Taysom, so unless Siemian goes down or they lose 2-3 games in a row…the Taysom story is about over (at QB). Next year, the Saints will sign a free agent and then it will really be over.
-- If I were making a list of 10 candidates for league MVP through nine weeks, I think Cordarrelle Patterson (9-10-0, 6-126-0/6) would have to be on it.
Succeeding at WR, RB, and kick returner…and teams are changing their defensive plans around him. Pretty amazing.
My top MVP guys right now might be (off the cuff)…
Derrick Henry
Kyler Murray
Lamar Jackson
Tom Brady
Josh Allen
Cordarrelle Patterson
Tyreek Hill (triple teamed often)
Kyle Pitts (instantly double teamed from day one)
Alvin Kamara
Michael Pittman (now getting the double treatment)
-- Russell Gage (7-64-0/8) takes over as the Falcons #1 WR, of sorts, with Calvin Ridley gone. He’s a solid WR2-3 play in PPR. gage had that odd zero catch game Week 8, but in Week 7 and 9 = 5.5 rec., 65.5 yards, 0.5 TDs per game. I know, I know...he's too boring for you...you want to chase Brandon Aiyuk putting up the same numbers (at best) on a worse passing game because the guys on Fantasy TV and print are really into Aiyuk making a reemergence...and they don't ever mention Gage at all.
Olamide Zaccheaus (3-58-2/3) made the most of his extra opportunity here. Facing Dallas this week…usually the guys not covered by Trevon Diggs have nice games, OZ might have another useful one Week 10.
Diggs may be on Kyle Pitts (3-62-0/7) this week…that’s why I say Pitts is an MVP candidate. He gets more coverage respect than any player I’m watching weekly except for Tyreek Hill and Michael Pittman.
Pitts had an OK game here, but he dropped a wide-open, perfectly thrown first pass of the game for 35+ yards, which would have (in theory) given him a 100+ yard game again. Pitts is going to be a mega star…maybe, depending upon if he can get some more single coverage in the years to come.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = Tre’Quan
60 = Callaway
25 = Stills
23 = Harris
17 = Taysom
15 = K White
52 = Kamara
26 = Ingram
48 = Gage
47 = Sharpe
44 = Pitts
33 = CPatt
33 = Mk D
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Jaguars 9, Bills 6
How did this happen? Were the Bills really outplayed by the Jaguars? Lots of questions after such a shocker.
I would say ‘yes and no’ that the Jags outplayed the Bills here. Yes, for the most part…the Jaguars played toe-to-toe here, but ‘no’ in that Buffalo ran more plays, outgained the Jags easily, and converted a much higher percentage of 3rd downs. In the end, Buffalo got brutalized with penalties at the wrong times, allowing JAX to convert 1st downs off penalties and throwing their own selves into 1st and 2nd and 3rd and long in key spots. Plus, Josh Allen had two terrible picks trying to make plays in a muddy situation.
I think, in the end, the Bills thought they could go and win this any time they wanted and when they were making their move there were some strange, ill-timed penalties or turnovers that happened to completely switch the momentum. The Bills LOST this game more than Jacksonville won it.
Jacksonville was weak on offense but good on defense pressuring Josh Allen most of the day with just 4 pass rushers and some well-times 5th blitzer. A gold star for the defensive coordinator to halt the Bills, but within that there was plenty of good fortune with penalties and receivers dropping 1st-down passes on 3rd-down, etc. The Jags are now (2-6) and are still pretty bad, arguably the worst team in football still. They might cap off at 3-4 wins this season.
The Bills fall to (5-3) with (5-4) New England suddenly right up their backside. The Bills are better than the Patriots, so when they meet two times ahead…Buffalo should at least split, if not sweep NE and put down the uprising. We project Buffalo with 12 wins…still with a chance to get that #1 seed if they can get to 13 wins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- NO worries on Josh Allen (31-47 for 264 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs, 5-51-0) after this tape watch. He’s gotta be the #1 QB for Fantasy right now, considering the fall of Mahomes/KC, the injury to Kyler, etc.
Allen was fine…MVP-like in carrying this team, but he got pressured a bunch, tried to make some slick throws under duress where he wasn’t set to make the play. Cole Beasley flat-out dropped a 15-yard pass for a key 3rd-down conversion…that doesn’t happen often, would’ve kept the drive going for more numbers. Jacksonville stoned the goal line efforts right away on the first drive, leaving Buffalo to settle for an FG…after a throw to a receiver left inches away from a TD.
It just wasn’t Josh Allen’s day. Use this game outcome to go buy low as possible on Allen.
-- Speaking of QBs…
Speaking of situations where the #2 QB is working better than the #1 QB a la Mike White v. Zach Wilson…
C.J. Beathard (2-2 for 33 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) was forced into the game off a Trevor Lawrence in-game injury that looked bad, and Beathard came right in looking like a stronger-armed, way more aggressive/confident version of Lawrence. I’m not joking or try to poke fun at Trevor…in a flash, the Jags offense changed.
CJB led a hurry-up offense right before halftime, and he waltzed them down the field and planted a beautiful 35-yard TD pass on the run, on the money, in-stride to Jamal Agnew…who dropped it. The play was stricken from the records by a roughing the passer…and then Carlos Hyde fumbled it away the next play. Then Lawrence returned to action on the next drive.
This will all be forgotten.
I won’t forget.
No one will care that I won’t forget.
It was only a couple of plays.
But put that with this…
-- Carlos Hyde (21-67-0, 1-6-0/2) ran tough against a top NFL defense…he looked just as good/better than James Robinson (DNP).
No one will care.
The Jaguars looked better on offense with their backup QB and RB.
Urban Meyer won’t care…didn’t notice. He’s got bar business to attend to.
James Robinson will be pushed back to the starting lineup not at 100% this week, regardless.
-- The two players Trevor Lawrence is getting more and more comfortable with…
1) Jamal Agnew (3-27-0/5)…his go-to lean over Marvin Jones (3-21-0/5) now. This was another game where Agnew led the WRs in targets. Agnew looks terrific. He is playing with max effort to take advantage of this golden career opportunity. He let a 4-62-1 game slip through his hands on that CJB bomb.
Whether you ‘trust’ him or not, he’s the #1 target among Jags WRs. That ain’t nothing…and he’s talented. It’s Trevor Lawrence that’s his main problem.
2) Dan Arnold (4-60-0/7) played really well last week and was good here too, leading the Jags in targets among all players.
Since their Week 7 BYE…so, two games since they had two weeks/extra time to redesign their offense, etc., the targets in the last two games (total):
17 = Agnew (+1 rush attempt for 18 touches)
17 = Arnold
13 = M Jones
8 = Shenault
It’s the Arnold and Agnew show for Lawrence, because of his limited arm.
-- Do we trust the Jags defense now? Well, last week they were humiliated by Geno Smith, so…probably not. However, their front/D-Line is getting so good…they’re a top 12 run defense by yards allowed per game BUT now #3 best in yards per carry allowed. They face the hottest back in the NFL…Jonathan Taylor Week 10.
Remember when people thought Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the best Dynasty RB coming out of the 2020 NFL Draft? Is he even in the top 3 from that draft? Top 5?
The Jags have a nice O-Line and D-Line…that’s usually a recipe for NFL success. Just their QB is not very good, and their head coach is awful/a detriment.
-- Jags DB Rudy Ford (8 tackles, 1 INT, 3 PDs) seems to be emerging as ‘Urban’s guy’. He’s the one player I see actually talking to Meyer like they’re on the same page/buddies. Everyone else pretty much avoids Urban.
Ford is a growing thing the past 4 games, going from 9% to 36% to 63% to 99% of the snaps played, and Week 9 was his first start.
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = Singletary
19 = Z Moss
51 = Marvin J
48 = Shenault
33 = Agnew
19 = Treadwell
35 = Arnold
29 = Farrell
27 = Manhertz
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Chargers 27, Eagles 24
Hard fought game and victory for the Chargers…on the road, west-to-east coast trip, missing two starting CBs…and they held off Philly and won at the buzzer on a field goal. Both teams played well, but when it was crunch time – Justin Herbert led a drive down to the red zone and ran the clock out for a game winning FG.
The Chargers are now (5-3), in a 1st-place tie in the AFC West…but a loss from last place. The LAC schedule eases up now, so the division is theirs for the taking if they can get healthy on defense. The Chargers should be headed to 11-12 wins and that should put them as likely division winners.
The Eagles fall to (3-6), but they too have a schedule ease ahead…but the Eagles are not as good a team to capitalize on it like the Chargers. Philly projects to 7-8 wins, but 9 wins is on the board…with 7 most likely the outcome.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I thought Jordan Howard (17-71-1) started this game, but he didn’t Boston Scott (10-40-0) did…but it was Howard who came in soon after and was rotating with Scott, and JoHo was the FAR superior back and he just kinda was the hot hand and Philly (smartly) went with it. Howard looked fantastic, as usual…so, you know, as soon as Miles Sanders returns (likely Week 11)…Howard goes back to the practice squad where no other team will notice he’s there and try and claim him.
Boston Scott will start Week 10, but who know who leads Philly in touches from there between he and Howard. I’d guess Howard, but that’s just a guess.
-- What’s wrong with Mike Williams (2-58-0/5)?
I didn’t see anything problematic with the way he was moving around. He had three TD shots in this game but none of them worked out…a fade that didn’t work from short distance, a tunnel screen at the goal line that Herbert threw 150mph through his hands, and another goal line shot where Williams either turned the wrong way or Herbert had the wrong interpretation and it was throw 180 degrees opposite of where Williams broke his route to.
It definitely wasn’t a great game for MW, but had he cashed in on TD then it would have been a decent FF output. He doesn’t look hurt. It just felt like Darius Slay was doing a good job on him WITH Keenan Allen (12-104-0/13) going off on the other CBs, so there was no need to push it to anyone else. Herbert’s first throw to Allen was 10-feet over his head…and then they connected on their next 12 passes with no incompletions.
I’m not down on Mike Williams but I’m certainly not thrilled with his recent fall down in numbers. I see no reason why he can’t pump back up but all of us will be worried until we see him breakthrough again. Half+ of his recent decline came with him really hurt. But the last two games he looks mostly healthy/good.
-- You know who impresses me? Donald Parham (3-39-1/3). He’s slimming down and moving quicker and is really catching the ball well…catching it smoothly and at all angles. He’s likely going to be in this split role with Jared Cook (4-48-0/4) and Stephen Anderson (4-39-1/4) all 2021, but Parham is becoming the best looking of the group, to me.
A couple random Parham notes…
3 TD catches in his last 5 games…the 8th most in the league. More TD catches this season than Waller-Gesicki-Hockenson-Goedert-Higbee-Engram…and Jared Cook.
17 games played in the NFL with at least one target…6 TD catches…6 TDs in his 20 career catches.
50.0% catch rate in 2020…when he was just a fade/alley-oop guy in the end zone. In 2021, as he becomes more of a real TE, he’s caught 83.3% of his targets this season to date.
Tre McKitty landed in the wrong spot for FF…
-- Chargers TE Steven Anderson (4-39-1/4) popped up with a blip game here. LAC used him wisely leaking out off of blocks, in motion in the backfield like a H-back/FB in the flat, etc. I don’t think anything is developing here, just Philly is bad against the TE with their random linebackers and LAC targeted Keenan Allen 13 times, the TE group 11 times, and Mike Williams just 5 times.
Which brings it home more that Mike Williams is not worthy of the Kupp-Davante-Tyreek-Pittman class right now…LAC/Herbert is spreading it around game plan to game plan, and not desperately leaning on Mike for everything.
The funny thing is – opposing teams don’t think so, they are throwing their best coverage at Big Mike…and then Herbert is just rocking them everywhere else, smartly.
-- Speaking of Justin Herbert (32-38 for 356 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT)…I guess his hand injury was OK? He completed 84.2% of his passes here and just had his way with the Eagles secondary. Philly’s pass defense has racked great numbers against the weak and been obliterated by the strong QBs. This game was another example.
-- I thought this was a solid game of Jalen Hurts (11-17 for 162 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 10-62-0) playing Jalen Hurts ball…he’s the better all-around Lamar Jackson but doesn’t get the credit for it for two reasons:
(1) He doesn’t have the flashy highlight moves running the ball as Lamar but is as/more effective with his strong style vs. Lamar’s flashy style.
(2) Lamar was a Heisman winner, 1st-round pick…he was supposed to be good. Hurts was drafted higher than the media proclaimed, so that’s a problem…then Hurts came in and was better than their Tua…that’s another media problem. So, all the mainstream media has done is attack Hurts and wonder aloud if they should bench him and mock 2022 NFL Draft QBs to Philly.
In 2021 season, through 9 weeks:
2,809 total yards, 15 total TDs, 10 total turnovers = Lamar Jackson (8 games)
2,475 total yards, 16 total TDs, 5 total turnovers = Jalen Hurts (9 games)
Yet, the media pushes us the narrative of Lamar as a top MVP candidate…and Hurts a top candidate to be benched.
Hurts is playing for his job/life every week. If he loses two games in a row ahead, I’m not sure he starts the next game after that. For his sake, I hope he keeps winning.
-- PHI DT Javon Hargrave (3 tackles) seasonal splits…
Weeks 1-5 = 5.4 total tackles, 1.2 sacks, 1.8 TFLs per game
Weeks 6-10 = 4.0 tackles, 0.0 sacks, 0.0 TFLs per game
He’s getting doubled…and he’s just running out of IDP juice, apparently.
-- Solid game from the LAC defense…despite missing two starting corners (M. Davis, A. Samuel) and still missing Kenneth Murray to help with their run game woes.
The LAC-DST has mediocre numbers/NFL rankings in part because they haven’t had a schedule break all season except Week 1 vs. WSH (held them to 16pts and 259 total yards).
They have some breaks ahead if they get their CBs back healthy (which they should):
Week 11 hosting PIT is great.
Week 12 at Denver should be really good.
PIT and DEN want to run the ball but have some of the worst run blocking O-Lines in the league.
Week 14 hosting NYG could be good depending on the NYG health of their weapons.
Week 16 at HOU should be sweet at just the right FF time.
Hosting DEN Week 17.
The schedule is tipping in their favor. We’ll see if they can take advantage. I still say it’s a viable defense for your Arizona pairings on matchups, but I’m not pounding my fist on the desk for it.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Quez
44 = DeVonta
29 = Reagor
25 = B Scott
23 = Jo Howard
11 = Gainwell
53 = Goedert
14 = Tyree Jackson
31 = Stv Anderson
29 = J Cook
28 = Parham
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Patriots 24, Panthers 6
In a battle of similar teams (run games and defense), the Patriots made the least number of mistakes and got an early cushion and just sat on the Panthers all game. There was no mystery to it…Sam Darnold is not good, and it showed, and helped the Pats to victory.
The Patriots are now (5-4) and crawling up the back of the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East. It’s not improbable that the Patriots win the AFC East, but I’ll say this Pats team is very stable/solid but not on Buffalo’s level…they have five wins over Zach Wilson 2x, Davis Mills (barely), Sam Darnold…and the outlier win against Justin Herbert. We’ll see how they fare against the better teams ahead. The only cupcake game they have for the rest of the season is Week 17 Jacksonville (is this a cupcake game still?). We project NE to finish with 7-8 wins, but 9 possible.
The Panthers fall to (4-5), losers of four of their last 5 games…and another loss coming to ARI Week 11. They just signed Cam Newton, but that’s really not a big upgrade from Sam Darnold. We see the Panthers flopping to 6-7 wins in the end.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, Carolina signs Cam Newton…
It seems exciting…if it were 5+ years ago. Now, Cam is a shell of himself and not wanted by any team all season…until this crisis spot hit.
Cam is a worse passer, better runner version of Sam Darnold (16-33 for 172 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs)…and Darnold played like he secretly bet on the Patriots this game.
Cam will likely run the ball 10-15 times a game, in lieu of his lost passer skills (which weren’t great to begin with)…he can be decent/QB2 in 4pts per pass TD leagues for FF…maybe.
Christian McCaffrey (14-52-0, 4-54-0/5) gets a nice lift with Cam returning…anything is better than P.J. Walker for him.
D.J. Moore (2-14-0, 3-32-0/7) has little effect/help from Cam…as Cam is worse than Darnold as a passer to WRs, but he does have a relationship/history with DJM.
-- Side note on CMC…I thought he looked totally healed/fine here, no limitations.
With CMC back, Chuba Hubbard was sparingly used and ineffective. He is the handcuff though…if you own CMC, you have to hold Hubbard to go with him the rest of the way in Fantasy.
-- The Patriots have three RBs that are CLEARLY better than Chuba Hubbard – and they are rotating and look terrific.
Damien Harris (8-54-0, 1-3-0/1) is the lead dog, but he is constantly getting nicked up…and now he’s down this week with a concussion and unknown if he’ll get cleared in time for Week 10.
Harris has been very solid/good all season, but I’d say Rhamondre Stevenson (10-62-0, 2-44-0/2) looks like the more physically gifted/talented back of the two. Harris has the experience factor, but Stevenson has everything else – he’s the lead back of the future, but Belichick is always spreading around his backfield touches (smart). With Harris down, Stevenson was in a prime spot to have a big touch count Week 10, but then Rhamondre also got a concussion and is very questionable for the upcoming game.
There were moments where I thought Brandon Bolden (8-54-0, 2-22-0/2) was the best looking back of this trio…he looks terrific for a guy turning 32 years old soon. With Harris-Stevenson in doubt this week…Bolden is the guy to have, a possible RB1 for the week if the main duo is out.
-- The Patriots-DST is beating up on the week and is wobbly/allowing points against any of the better QBs they’ve faced this year (not many faced, Dak and Herbert)…but did frustrate Brady.
The schedule is a mixed bag for them ahead – CLE, ATL, TEN are not pushovers but not elite offenses either. They might be a decent start the next three weeks, but then it’s buh-bye with BUF-BYE-IND-BUF Weeks 13-16.
-- The Carolina-DST is better, talent-wise, than the Pats-DST, in my book…but Carolina’s offense doesn’t support their defense well, so it’s shaky week-to-week. Cam coming in and running the ball a bunch will help them some.
Weeks 11-12 with WSH and at MIA aren’t bad plays, especially Week 11. Then you’re likely done with them after that…BYE-ATL-BUF-TB-NO-TB to finish the season.
Snap Counts of Interest:
29 = CMC
22 = Abdullah
10 = Hubbard
54 = Robby A
50 = DJ Moore
22 = Terr Marshall
17 = Snead
55 = J Meyers
54 = Agholor
33 = Bourne
29 = Bolden
24 = D Harris
17 = Stevenson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Cardinals 31, 49ers 17
The storyline coming out/from this game is quite amazing, when you think about it.
The 49ers go into this game in a must-win…with a win they could get to .500 and be right back in the NFC West race. They caught a big break with Arizona missing Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins – basically, their offensive soul was gone. Add to that, Arizona had A.J. Green out with COVID, and J.J. Watt had been lost for the season recently. Playing at San Francisco – this was the 49ers; this was Kyle Shanahan’s time shine. Chase Edmonds got hurt right away – so, this looked SO good for SF.
So, it’s only logical that the Cardinals would race out to a 17-0 lead enroute to a beat down…at the hands of Colt McCoy and James Conner. McCoy only completed 84.6% of his passes and James Conner ran like he was Derrick Henry. It was embarrassing for San Francisco. This 49ers defense is horrific, and their offense is OK but not great. The spirit of this team is dreadful – and that’s on Kyle Shanahan.
The 49ers fall to (3-5), so not out of the playoffs at all…but looking like a longer and longer shot. A loss to the Rams this week might put them out of their misery. A win brings them to (4-5) with an easing schedule on tap the rest of the season. Likely, they lose to the Rams and finish with 6-7 wins this season, as the tougher games they do have ahead (SEA-CIN-TEN) are all on the road.
Shanahan’s hand should be forced to push Trey Lance as starter after the Rams game, assuming they lose – the season will be fading, the local media is crushing him. Everyone is turning on the golden boy. A turn to Lance can change the trajectory of the season, or at least change the narrative. Week 11, after a loss to the Rams, going to Jacksonville for a favored win is probably the move to Lance moment.
By winning this game without their stars, against a decent opponent, on the road…how can we not say that Arizona (7-1) is the best team in football? They are an A.J. Green miscommunication away from being undefeated still. They should beat Carolina Week 10, without Kyler, and then maybe get Kyler back at Seattle Week 11. Arizona projects 14-15 +/- wins, the NFC West title, and in a dogfight with Green Bay for the #1 seed, along with Dallas (who they play at Jan. 2nd/Week 17).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Just more thoughts on the 49ers defense…
They have allowed 28 or more points in a game in four of their last 6 games…five of their 8 games this season. Carson Wentz pushed them around…then Justin Fields was not terrible against them Week 8, then Colt McCoy pounded them this game. This defense is not good.
I think back to the Indy game, Week 7, in that torrential rain – the Colts were tackling the ball and punching it out like a pack of ballhawks. The 49ers never did any such things…instead gently grabbing jerseys that slipped through their hands on their way to 30 points allowed in the soup of a game/loss. They were so soft. Then this game…James Conner was running through them like they weren’t interested in playing football.
They’re not very good…and worse than that, they have no energy/spirit. Embarrassing…while people still think they’re still formidable somehow.
-- The Arizona-DST is what is good...great even. They punched the ball out a couple times on SAWFT San Francisco, which helped them jump to a lead. This is the best defense I see with my eyes every week…them and Green Bay, and Buffalo.
The Arizona defense toyed with the 49ers. The Cardinals got up quick and then just handled/toyed with the 49ers all game.
Facing P.J. Walker this week should be a bloodbath event for them.
Week 11 at Seattle is not perfect, but I can start them with some confidence – Seattle’s O-Line is horrific.
Week 12 BYE is your main concern ahead, but then we got Weeks 16-17 to worry about too – vs. IND, at DAL…two of the best O-Lines in football, which is not great for FF numbers. If Arizona is your main DST, I’d hold them…find a replacement Week 12, maybe one that looks good Week 11. Then let’s reassess this during Week 13 with them at CHI. We need to see what we want to do Weeks 16-17, but so much injury can happen ahead of that…don’t worry about it too soon.
Week 12 options…
CHI-DST at DET on Thanksgiving?
CIN-DST hosting PIT.
MIA-DST hosting CAR…plus, Miami at NYJ Week 11.
NYJ-DST at HOU?
LAC-DST at DEN.
SEA-DST at WSH.
Plenty of waiver Week 12 options for Arizona sit.
-- Elijah Mitchell (8-36-0, 5-43-0/5) is an RB1 now, in case you own him and were looking over your RBs and bellyaching about how ‘your RBs are killing me’.
Mitchell looks terrific. Silky smooth runner between the tackles, and then in this game showed us he has terrific hands. He has all the RB1 traits, including a top O-Line…but they just lost key OL Mike McGlinchey so that sucks, but the O-Line is still good enough to keep Mitchell going…with his 5.3 ypc average this season.
Since Week 7, his full return from injury – he’s the #9 half-PPR RB in Fantasy.
No one is taking that job from him on the 49ers roster.
-- Is Brandon Aiyuk (6-89-1/8) back? Maybe.
He definitely looked better here than he has all season. However, Deebo Samuel (5-63-0/9) is still their best/#1 WR…and then George Kittle (6-101-1/8) is arguably the true ‘#1’. So, you have a low volume passing game…the #29 team in completed passes this season, #22 in passing TDs – and Aiyuk is it’s #3-in-the-pecking-order option…which is not that great for FF purposes. Russell Gage is his team’s new #1 WR, and no one cares…but somehow a nice game from Aiyuk out of the blue, a chunk of it happening when the game was kinda out of reach/Arizona playing softer…somehow that’s the signal Aiyuk is going to become a 2nd-half WR1.
The power of ‘draft stock’.
The power of ‘the football media pushing things…and all of us falling in line’.
I like Aiyuk just fine, but the situation is not fertile for him to be a consistent producer, and if Trey Lance takes over – even worse for pass game consistency.
-- Eno Benjamin (9-39-1) had a nice TD run in this game, and then saw most of his touches as this game was being salted away/after James Conner did a lot of damage.
I don’t believe Eno will see much work on purpose with Edmonds out. You need Arizona to push to a lead to get Eno more touches. When it’s ‘a game’ – then Conner is going to keep touching the ball.
If Arizona gets way up on Carolina fast, which could happen with their QB issues…Eno might see 10+ touches here, but it won’t be the on-purpose plan. Conner is now the full lead and Eno there for spotty relief.
Chase Edmonds didn’t matter in this offense, neither will Eno Benjamin aside from garbage time…unless Conner goes down, then it will be an Eno Benjamin/Jonathan Ward duel for touches.
-- With DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green down, Rondale Moore (5-25-0/5) saw a few more snaps/touches…but he’s not doing anything FF-special with them. He looks good, but he’s playing a bit part in the offense…no reason to change that now, with Arizona rolling.
The winner of the starting WRs down for this game was WR Antoine Wesley (3-62-0/3)…an impressive UDFA WR who has bounced around the league, but has found a home with his former college coach back at Texas Tech.
-- I believe if the 49ers lose this week to the Rams, then Kyle Shanahan will be forced to go to Trey Lance…just a gut feeling.
However, if the 49ers take down the Rams – then SF is right back into the mix of wild card teams and then has Jacksonville up next, for a likely win and then they’re back to .500 (5-5), which means Jimmy G. gets another 2-3 weeks, minimum as starter…so Lance is pushed way off the radar.
Redraft-holding Lance and hoping for an FF-payoff comes down to the outcome of this Week 10 game hosting LAR.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Aiyuk
54 = Deebo
33 = Sanu
05 = Jauan Jennings
67 = Kirk
57 = Rondale
54 = Wesley
54 = Conner
17 = Eno B
01 = Ch Edmonds
39 = Mitchell
20 = Hasty
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Titans 28, Rams 16
I've previously discussed how the Titans and Ravens have been the bane of my existence this year. Whenever I watch these two teams I just never leave impressed. I know they are decent teams, disciplined with efficient offenses and above average defenses, but it always seems to me that they don't really belong in the discussion with the best teams in the league. They seem lucky to have the records they have.
This game for instance. The narrative is that the Titans just beat down the Rams. They dominated their offensive line and forced Matt Stafford into some mistakes. This was a statement win for the Titans and proof that they are the best team in the AFC even without Derrick Henry.
Sometimes we read too much into these small moments. Sometimes players have an off day, they make uncharacteristic mistakes, or one team gets particularly lucky. Sometimes these singular games don't really mean much. Is anyone taking the Jaguars win over the Bills seriously? Of course now. So why do we assume this game was some big defining moment for the team that won?
What I saw was the Rams get backed up near their goal line twice early in the game, and Stafford threw two really stupid passes that led to TD's for the Titans. Yes, the Titans defensive line played really well this game. But those passes didn't have to occur, and they weren't solely created by the defensive pressure. Stafford isn't my favorite QB ever, but he typically doesn't make egregious mistakes like this.
But in those two simple plays Tennessee was gifted a massive lead that they just sat on. They would score again on their own soon after for a 21-3 lead that forced the Rams into playing a certain way. And it's not like the Rams weren't moving the ball. They kept getting to the redzone but just couldn't punch it in. Eventually though they got a few field goals to get the game back within reach, only for the Titans to finally embark on only their second scoring drive of the game to close it out.
The Titans won 28-16, but their first two scores were gifts that radically changed the nature of the game. You cannot overlook that fact. And outside of that it seemed to me that the Rams were the better team overall. It was just hard to see given the warped game state.
I realize all of this sounds like I'm making excuses and not seeing reality, but I truly believe that if you played this game 10 times the Rams win 6 of them. There's not a huge difference between them. I think the Titans are a good team, the same team they've been for the past few years, solid but unspectacular. But the Rams are just a bit better in my opinion.
Regardless, both of these teams are making the playoffs. The Titans should win their division barring a collapse. And the Rams just took a massive step back in the race for the NFC West. This was their chance to get a good win and hope the Cardinals lost without Kyler Murray. Instead, the exact opposite happened, and now they are going to need a good bit of luck to snatch the division last second. This team would have a much easier time getting through the playoffs with a 1st or 2nd seed. Making them go on the road as a 5th seed will likely be too much. I don't think they are tough enough to fight through cold, outdoor conditions later in the season.
Fantasy Notes
--In the competition to replace Derrick Henry we saw Adrian Peterson (10-21-1) get first crack at it, but he was completely ineffectual. They may continue to roll with him, but I think some of his carries could be in danger because it was D'Onta Foreman (5-29-0) that was the most effective back (looked a lot like a mini Henry as RC has mentioned for a couple years now) and he was getting mixed in a lot more in the 2nd half. Jeremy McNichols (7-24-0, 3-11-0/3) will likely continue to split with one of those two though because he is the passing game back.
Based on what I saw here I don't think anyone runs away with the job even though if it was up to me Foreman would be my new 15 carry a game lead back. He's the lottery ticket if you are so inclined.
--AJ Brown (5-42-0/11) is so obviously the #1 receiver here it's not even funny. Julio Jones (4-35-0/4) is a shell of himself. Brown is playing good ball. The trouble for him is that without Henry, defenses are not afraid of the run and can key on him much more. Those inside slants that he normally feasts on suddenly have a lot more linebackers crowding them, and Tannehill, while still a good QB, doesn't have the same windows to throw into now. I love the volume Brown is getting, and I think he'll be fine the rest of the year, but maybe expect more WR1.5 than the top 10 guy everyone hoped for.
--On that note, Ryan Tannehill (19-27 for 143 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is probably out of the QB2 discussion. He's still an above average QB, but it's become clear that Henry's presence really boosted his production.
--One interesting note that RC touched on in an update, was that Tennessee receiver Josh Reynolds (also formerly a Ram) was released this week and claimed by the Lions...where he reunites with Jared Goff from his Rams days. I absolutely love this move for the Lions. Reynolds has turned into a very solid receiver and he could immediately become their best guy. It will be tough sledding to be the featured guy on a weak passing attack, but there's some hope here. You can ignore it in redraft for the moment but keep an eye out here if he starts to trend upwards. In dynasty this is a nice deep stash move.
--Matt Stafford (31-48 for 294 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) had an off game. Everyone does occasionally. He's fine, still an almost guaranteed top 5 lock at QB.
--Don't look now, but Robert Woods (7-98-0/10) is suddenly the #12 WR in ppr leagues for the year. It's not flashy production, but he's getting his usual 4-5 catches for 60 yards and a TD chance every week. This year it's been a little more inconsistent usage than in the past because he's just another cog in the machine, but it's working and he also gets a handoff or two every game to bolster his numbers. Not bad.
--The guy who gets shafted for fantasy numbers most weeks in this offense is Van Jefferson (3-41-0/7). I know Woods is better for fantasy, but Jefferson still looks more important for the offense to function at its peak. If Woods is out with injury, nobody knows the difference, but if Jefferson had to sit out suddenly Stafford doesn't have his field stretcher anymore and the range of the offense shrinks.
--Darrell Henderson (11-55-0) is still one of my favorite buys in redraft if you can still trade this late. The Rams are rarely going to be down like this where they have to mostly abandon the run.
IDP Notes
--Chris Collinsworth pissed me off again this game (he has a habit of it) when he said that Kupp versus Elijah Molden (8 tackles) in the slot was the biggest mismatch on the field and the Rams hadn't exploited it yet.
That's because it's not the biggest mismatch on the field. Molden is already one of the better slot corners in the league and he's still getting his feet under him. In the past four games, Molden has played 80% of the snaps three times, and in all three games he had 8 or more tackles each time. Guess Collinsworth didn't watch every snap of Molden's from college and his young pro career...otherwise he wouldn't have said something so idiotic.
Snap Counts of Interest
78 = Cooper Kupp
78 = Robert Woods
75 = Van Jefferson
45 = AJ Brown
43 = Julio Jones
22 = Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
42 = Geoff Swaim
27 = MyCole Pruitt
26 = Jeremy McNichols
19 = Adrian Peterson
12 = D'Onta Foreman
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Steelers 29, Bears 27
This game was such a snooze fest between two boring ass teams for the first 55 minutes of the game that I turned it off well before that. Little did I know the last 5 minutes would be some of the craziest all year.
The Steelers led 14-3 at the half. It wasn't what I would call a dominant half for them, but they appeared to be the better team by a decent margin.
A good way into the second half and the score was 20-6 Steelers with no hope in sight for the Bears. They couldn't move the ball and couldn't take it away from Pittsburgh. But then David Montgomery got going and suddenly it was 20-13 and the door opened a crack. Pittsburgh would extend their lead to 10 but a fumbled ball on special teams got picked up by the Bears for a TD and suddenly the Steelers were sweating a 23-20 game.
Pitt would kick another field goal to make it 26-20, but Chicago put together their best drive of the day to go up 27-26 with 1:45 to go. It was too much time, however, and the Steelers calmly marched down the field for a FG to take the lead 29-27.
The Bears had only seconds remaining but picked up enough yards to give themselves a chance at a 65 yard field goal. The ball clanked off the crossbar, inches too short and the Steelers held on for the win.
Despite the exciting finish, these are still two boring, not great teams. Both have decent defenses and terrible offenses dragging them down. Roethlisberger is beyond done. It's just sad now. Watching him put every ounce of strength into a 30 yard wounded duck is pathetic. And Justin Fields is just not a good QB. The physical gifts are nice but underused, and while he is capable of the occasional great throw, they simply come far too infrequently and are mixed in with a bunch of terrible, rushed, inaccurate throws.
There is a group of analysts that rush to proclaim his obvious greatness every time he does something marginally good, and I believe they are spurred to do this because they believe he has been unfairly attacked for whatever reason. In their minds his greatness is beyond question. It's obvious that he's amazing, and so whenever anyone questions his ability, that person must have some ulterior motive. It's a problem with society in general these days, but also beginning to crop up frequently in football analysis these days.
For example, PFF somehow gave Fields their highest grade for a QB this week. You have got to be kidding me. That is utterly ridiculous, and I challenge anyone to try and explain how that is accurate. Right after this information was released, the pro-Fields crowd began howling that the Bears had their QB1 for the next 15 years and he was better than Mahomes...blah blah blah. It's a bunch of drivel. Fields is one of the worst 5 starting QB's right this second, and I don't see much hope for him to improve.
The Steelers move to 5-3 and are without a doubt one of the worst teams with a record that good. Other than the Bills, every team they've beaten was either bad or mediocre or very injured (Browns). The good teams they just lose to because they don't have the firepower to compete (or rather they do have the firepower but Ben can't/won't get it to them). I don't think they can keep up with the Browns and Ravens in the division or possibly even the Bengals. I see them headed for an 8-9 or 9-8 record and possible last place finish in the division.
The Bears fall to 3-6. They aren't one of the absolute worst teams in the league, but they aren't far off either. If the defense wasn't decent they would be in Houston territory. Fields isn't getting any better either, so I don't see how they finish with more than 5 wins or so. It's hard to win games when you can barely score 17 points on offense most games.
Fantasy Notes
--Woo boy we need to get Najee Harris (22-62-1, 3-16-0/3) some more touches! He's obviously a huge weapon with his 2.8 ypc average. Of course, reality doesn't matter for fantasy. Najee is just another big, average RB with decent hands, but because the Steelers believe he's a weapon, he gets used like one, and usage is the #1 key to fantasy stats. He's as safe an RB1 as you'll find this year. However, 2022 is a whole different animal, and I can already see him being a huge disappointment after he gets drafted 1st overall.
--Chase Claypool (3-30-0/5) hurt his foot towards the end of this game and will likely be out several weeks. Of course, he was just another WR4 with the occasional splash week anyways, so it's not like you're losing much. Claypool is dead so long as Ben is there, but if Pittsburgh ever replaces him with an actual QB then Claypool rockets up to the top WR in all formats. He is the single most physically gifted WR in the league today and a caliber of weapon we haven't seen since Calvin Johnson. He should be acquired cheaply in all dynasty leagues simply because the upside is so high.
--People are joking that Diontae Johnson (5-56-0/6) will get a million targets without Claypool playing, but Claypool wasn't a big part of this offense anyways. Nothing changes for Diontae. He's always been Ben's bff and will get his usual 12 targets for 8 catches and less than 10 ypc most weeks.
--Some analysts are pushing James Washington (1-42-0/3) as a guy to pick up to replace Claypool, but what's the point? Washington is a deep ball guy and Ben can't throw deep anymore. Their one connection here was busted coverage and Ben threw the worst deep pass I've seen outside of a Darnold game. The only reason it was completed is because the coverage was actually in good position but the ball was so underthrown that only Washington could come back to it. Also Claypool wasn't getting many targets anyways and wasn't useful in fantasy, so I fail to see why tiny little Washington would suddenly work where 6'5” 242 lb Claypool couldn't.
--The player you want with CC out in redraft now is Pat Freiermuth (5-43-2/6), Ben's other best friend, but you won't be able to acquire him after this 2 TD game. Freiermuth has seen his role expand for weeks now, and it was just a matter of time for him to have a game like this. He's a safe outlet for Ben when Diontae isn't open and looks like a TE1 the rest of the year.
--I've hammered Justin Fields (17-29 for 291 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 8-45-0) enough at this point that I'm not going to beat a dead horse. He's not a good QB, although he can be plausible if given enough protection as most QB's can. For fantasy though I'm a buyer in redraft if you need a safe QB2. Since he started running last week, things are opening up for him just like I theorized and the running points give him a high floor.
--David Montgomery (13-63-0, 2-17-0/2) returned from a multiple week injury with no practice time and looked as good as he ever has. Tell me again why practice is so important. He walked right back in and took most of the carries with very little Khalil Herbert (4-13-0) mixed in despite how great he's been. Matt Nagy is such a genius.
--Darnell Mooney (3-41-1/6, 1-15-1) is the WR to own here and has been ever since Fields took over. He is the WR1 not Allen Robinson (4-68-0/6). Robinson might be a WR 2.5-3 now instead of the nothing he has been all year. If he's on waivers and you're desperate then go for it, but don't actually spend resources to acquire him.
I called Cole Kmet (6-87-0/8) a slug earlier this year, and at the time he was moving like one. This is the first time I've actually seen him look somewhat plausible. He's still not the next great TE that's for sure, but he's something now instead of nothing. His numbers this game weren't really anything he was doing so much as Fields running around and finding him on broken plays down the field. I don't think you can count on this connection every week though. There are plenty of other TE's I'd rather have even if you're desperate.
IDP Notes
--Not sure how he's been flying under the radar since he was such a huge name just a year or two ago, but Minkah Fitzpatrick (8 tackles) is playing solid football as always and has been quite good for fantasy as well. He has 8 or more tackles in four of his last five games.
Snap Counts of Interest
65 = Diontae Johnson
58 = Chase Claypool
41 = James Washington
26 = Ray-Ray McCloud
51 = Pat Freiermuth
37 = Zach Gentry
53 = David Montgomery
10 = Khalil Herbert
50 = Darnell Mooney
48 = Allen Robinson
32 = Marquise Goodwin
48 = Cole Kmet
22 = Jesse James
