R.C. Fischer

FFM

23 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Browns 31, Texans 21

Ok, bombshell opening sentence: Had Tyrod Taylor stayed healthy/played the rest of this game (left at halftime with hamstring injury)…the Texans would have won it. Not a fluke win…just the better team winning.

Think of the ramifications of that statement…

Had the Texans won this game, they would have been (2-0) and the clear leaders in the very weak AFC South. And then everyone’s favorite sleeper team for the Super Bowl, the Browns, would have fallen to (0-2) and pure panic would be setting in that they could’ve lost to the lowly Texans.

I am thoroughly unimpressed with this Browns team. The defense isn’t good. The offense is a solid O-Line for a run game mixed with a dull, stiff passing game with like 9 tight ends going out for passes at one time leading the way with Landry-OBJ out. I guess they can still win the AFC North because it’s such a mixed bag of mediocrity, but this is not a Super Bowl team that I see.

Tyrod went out and Davis Mills entered…and the Browns still scuffled to the end. They couldn’t fully put away Houston until late despite Mills trying to hand them turnovers every other throw. This was a win, not-a-win for Cleveland. Houston was the aggressor until Tyrod left…and then they still fought, but just lacked juice in their punches with Mills at QB.

Poor Houston…they had a chance to jump to (2-0) with the rest of the division at (0-2)…but Tyrod is gone, and the Titans had a big comeback win over Seattle. It was so close for Houston. A (2-0) Houston (without Deshaun) with a 2-game lead over the division after two weeks would have make me want to quit trying to predict anything in the NFL. But Houston lost, so all's right with the football world…or so I’ll tell myself.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The best thing I saw in this game? Demetric Felton (2-51-1/2). Dude can just play football.

Felton was a solid+ three-year WR for UCLA turned successful RB his senior year. He went to the Senior Bowl as an RB prospect but was so good as a receiver they moved him to WR…where he was a standout all week.

His Pro Day times were weak, so his draft stock fell from a day two of the draft guy to an eventual 6th-rounder. But he shined in the preseason and then this happened on his first NFL touch: https://youtu.be/1eWC-YhwPOo

Felton is already the best playmaker on the Browns, among the WRs, but you have to know the second OBJ is active…no one else really exists at WR for the Browns. Baker will force every WR thing to OBJ…who will then drop the pass or run the wrong route or complain about the location of the throw or complain he was held. OBJ is kryptonite to wins, but the Browns don’t have the stones to address the problem…they just let the problem walk right into their house and eat everything in the refrigerator and put his shoes/feet up on the tables, etc. The Browns deserve a collapse for not addressing/cutting/trading OBJ and Jarvis Landry, who are the two most overpaid players in the NFL.

All that to say, no way Felton naturally ascends to FF worthiness any time soon. Hell, the Browns were struggling big time in this game, then this Felton TD gave them the lead back, and it was a delightful play that should’ve caught everyone’s attention…but then Felton played only two other snaps in the game. His next catch-and-run was terrific too…but he plays 3 snaps while like 47 tight ends get work otherwise. If you’re not 6’4”+ and 250+ pounds and run a 4.8+ 40-time…then you’re not a dynamic weapon to Kevin Stefanski.  

 -- I’m just saying…about those TEs…

Jarvis Landry was gone quickly from this game and Houston was handling the Browns, going toe-to-toe all 1st-half. No OBJ, now Landry gone – what did the Browns do to adjust to missing their #1 and #2 WRs?

1 target for Donovan Peoples-Jones, 1 target for Anthony Schwartz, Rashard Higgins 2 targets…2 targets for Demetric Felton on 3 whole snaps played.

Four WRs combined for 6 targets combined. If you ignore Felton…it was 4 targets for the established WRs in 55+ minutes of game play without Landry.

But also…

Austin Hooper (5-40-0/5)

Harrison Bryant (4-49-0/4)

David Njoku (2-18-0/3)

Three TEs combined for 12 targets, 11 catches, 107 yards.

This offense is RBs first, then OBJ, then all the TEs, then Landry…and then everything else. Demetric Felton has a ton of roadblocks to get past to make an FF-dent.

 -- So, how did Davis Mills (8-18 for 102 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) look in his forced debut? Not as bad as I thought he would. He played with some poise and control, but he’s such a poor QB prospect that of his 10 incompletions…he’s lucky 5 of them weren’t picks…I mean, defenders with the ball in their hands kicking themselves in disbelief they didn’t come up with the pick. But there were times he was comfortable, went through his reads and made a decent short/medium throw.

Mills wasn’t terrible, but he’s not really ready for this – he’s very much at risk against Carolina defense Week 3.

 -- Two Texans offensive notes…

Mark Ingram (10-41-0, 1-0-0/2) is ruining this team’s scrappy chances to win games. He’s a wasted play with every touch. But you will never convince David Culley otherwise, so don’t think it will change naturally.

Brandin Cooks (9-78-1/14) played his arse off in this game. He’s giving all he’s got for this team and he’s making big plays/tough catches. He’s the heart and soul of the offense. Watching this back, I’m thinking surely the Browns will clamp him down and make Chris Conley (1-13-0/2) try and beat them. Nope.

 -- If Tyrod Taylor is ‘meh’…but got replaced by not-ready Davis Mills…with an offense featuring over-the-hill Mark Ingram and no WR/TE weapons aside from Brandon Cooks – then this supposed newly tooled/upgraded Browns defense should have dominated the Texans.

They did not.

They were on their heels most of the game, especially when Tyrod was in. Even Davis Mills moved the ball against them in spurts. I have not seen one shred of evidence that the Browns defense is anything special for 2021 right now.

The Bears Week 3 should be a nice DST matchup for them, but I’m not that excited.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Peoples-Jones

43 = Higgins

30 = Schwartz

03 = Felton

02 = Landry

42 = Hooper

36 = Njoku

31 = Bryant

35 = Chubb

23 = Hunt

26 = D Johnson

19 = Ingram

14 = Lindsay

38 = Ph Brown

35 = Akins

Ross Jacobs

FFM

23 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Bills 35, Dolphins 0 (By Ross Jacobs)

I don't need to do a long recap of the game here. Everyone knows what happened. The Bills came out firing and knocked Tua out of the game with a rib injury and the rout was on.

The Bills are one of the better teams in the league. They have a top 10 offense and a fringe top 10 defense. Nothing has really changed from last year except the defense looks to be a little better which is scary news for the rest of the league.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, have a really good defense but no offense to back it up. Tua is a joke and much like Darnold and the Panthers, he's going to hold this team back from being a playoff contender. If the Dolphins bite the bullet and trade for Deshaun Watson now they would instantly be a much scarier team.

Fantasy Notes

--I wouldn't worry about Josh Allen (17-33 for 179 yards, 2 TD/1 INT, 5-35-0) just yet. He's played two really good defenses, particularly two really good pass defenses, so far. He looked mostly normal to me, maybe just a touch off. It didn't help matters that it rained during a large chunk of the game. In fact, looking at his schedule, I think he makes an excellent buy low candidate right now. If you have Aaron Rodgers could probably get a deal done easily and even get a few trinkets thrown in for good measure. Remember, even if Allen isn't passing quite as well as last year he still has an extremely high floor due to his rushing prowess. He nearly had a rushing TD here but started his slide just a tick early and was called down at the 1. Allen should be a very safe top 5 QB the rest of the year.

--Devin Singletary (13-82-1, 2-9-0/3) is so obviously Buffalo's best back it's not even funny. He looks spry and elusive while Zach Moss (8-26-2, 2-8-0/2) looks like a tugboat. The only reason Moss should ever be in the game is if you need a yard or two. That's all he's good for. Other than that it should be Singletary in every other situation. Unfortunately, despite the vast difference in total snaps, Moss is still getting far too much of the work and it's rendering Singletary as a RB2 at best.

--Just like with Allen, I wouldn't panic on Stefon Diggs (4-60-1/8) and might even buy him low if possible. He looks fine. It's completely natural for him to have less output against Joe Haden and Xavien Howard, two of the best corners in the league. He's got another tough matchup against William Jackson this week but that hasn't been as threatening as it might have been 2-3 years ago. Diggs is a must start every week.

Emmanuel Sanders (2-48-0/6) and Cole Beasley (4-36-0/4) are the next two options in the Buffalo passing game. They are both WR3 hopefuls with occasional spike games. Find the right matchup and they are more useful in DFS. In redraft it's hard to justify starting them unless necessary.

Dawson Knox (2-17-1/3) looks like he's going to try for a repeat of 2020 where he doesn't offer much receiving upside but catches a TD every other game to make himself marginally useful.

--With Tua out I actually think the Dolphins are getting an upgrade with Jacoby Brissett (24-40 for 169 yards, 0 TD/1 INT). It's not a huge deal and you still don't want Brissett for fantasy, but it should help the team a little. Brissett is a very similar player to Tua in that he's a smart, safe passer, isn't going to make a lot of mistakes, but he comes with the added benefit that he can run a little and he has a bigger arm than Tua. I wouldn't be shocked to see him and this defense jump up and surprise a suddenly hot Raiders team this week.

--You don't want anything related to this Miami backfield, but if you must, Myles Gaskin (5-25-0, 4-21-0/5) is the only option at the moment and only in ppr because of all the dump passes he's catching. He's still not a good player and the offensive line isn't good either.

Malcolm Brown (5-21-0) “split” carries with Gaskin here but not really. He only came into the game in the last 4 or 5 minutes. Ditto Salvon Ahmed (6-17-0). He's the worst of the three backs and was only taking carries because the game got out of hand early.

--Who is the #1 WR in Miami?

Probably Jaylen Waddle (6-48-0/8) although it's not worth much. He's solid but doesn't have a QB that can get him the ball in space. Might be an interesting option if the team ever upgrades though.

The next contender is RC's old favorite DeVante Parker (5-42-0/9). He's still not interested in anything involving contact.

I thought maybe Albert Wilson (4-20-0/6) might provide a little juice, but he looked like crap and dropped at least two easy passes.

Mike Gesicki (3-42-0/6) might have a little life with Brissett at QB. He's a safe option for Jacoby in 1-on-1 coverage.

IDP Notes

--The Bills defense is just so well-coached and disciplined. They don't have many stars but they work together very well as a unit. They'll flirt with top 10 status this year.

Rookie Greg Rousseau (5 tackles, 2 sacks) will get the headlines this week. He was fine and has certainly helped upgrade the pass rush, but everyone on the team was beating up on this Miami offensive line so I wouldn't read too much into it. AJ Epenesa (1 tackle) didn't get much in the stats department, but he was causing just as many problems for Austin Jackson as anyone else.

--On the Dolphins side two players stood out. The obvious one is all-pro CB Xavien Howard (2 tackles, 1 INT, 2 pd). He picked off Josh Allen on a short slant which is really impressive given the nature of the play. The ball was thrown a little behind Diggs, but it was still a great play by Howard. He just makes it so tough on opposing #1 WR's and his counterpart Byron Jones is great at shutting down #2's. Beware starting lesser guys against this Miami secondary.

The other standout was a longtime favorite of mine and RC's, Emmanuel Ogbah (4 tackles, 0.5 sacks). He doesn't have much help but he really played well here and was the only guy consistently getting pressure when Miami didn't blitz. Good to see him playing well and getting some long overdue recognition.

Snap Counts of Interest

51 = Stefon Diggs

50 = Emmanuel Sanders

39 = Cole Beasley

21 = Gabriel Davis

13 = Isaiah McKenzie

43 = Devin Singletary

18 = Zach Moss

55 = DeVante Parker

49 = Jaylen Waddle

41 = Albert Wilson

47 = Mike Gesicki

22 = Durham Smythe

45 = Myles Gaskin

23 = Salvon Ahmed

9 = Malcolm Brown

R.C. Fischer

FFM

22 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Cowboys 20, Chargers 17

If you told me (pregame) that Dak Prescott went to L.A. to face the Chargers, and threw no TD passes with 237 yards passing – I’d tell you the Chargers probably wiped the floor with Dallas. Instead, the Cowboys somehow won this low scoring game on a last second 50+ yard FG.

It’s the second week in a row that the Chargers offense moved the ball fine and then crapped themselves near the red zone. If it isn’t a penalty negating a TD, it’s a dropped pass or a turnover or some other kind of TD-killer. If LAC fixes their red zone issue (which is more odd events than execution failures), they will win 10+ games easily and possibly be a threat to the Chiefs for the AFC West.

Had LAC pulled out this game, I would have considered LAC possibly the AFC West favorites over a now (1-1) KC team, but the Chargers blew a golden opportunity here.

It’s the second week in a row that I walk away thinking – Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore are really coaching well…clever play calls, smart adjustments, going for it on 4th-downs. Another week where I walk away thinking Dallas will win the NFC East if Dak stays alive.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I mostly rewatched this game to see what was up with Justin Herbert (31-41 for 338 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) – two INTs in a game…just one TD pass but back-to-back 330+ passing yard games? What gives? I thought this guy was the next end-all-be-all?

My judgment is – everything is fine. Herbert looks good but has had some bad luck. He lost a 45-yard TD pass to some BS penalty call not helping the play at all. His 2nd INT here was an end zone timing pass to Keenan Allen, only Allen slipped and fell making his cut and face planted so the ball went straight to a DB…might have been a TD otherwise. Herbert also had a Cook TD pass get taken away.

For the 2nd week in a row, Herbert SHOULD’VE had 2-3 TD passes to go with his 330+ yards passing.

I’m a buyer of all the Herbert I can where I don’t have Mahomes-Kyler…or maybe Brady (redraft/6pts).

No reason to panic.

 -- What’s interesting from watching Herbert here…how Mike Williams (7-91-1/10) is pushing towards becoming his #1 WR. I still think Keenan is his guy, but the design of the offense and the attention Allen gets…it’s freeing up Williams to do damage.

And not only are the circumstances in his favor, in general…but Williams looks terrific. I’ve never seen him so spry, so quick on his feet. It’s almost like he knows he has a big free agency coming up. He’s on his way to a mega contract at this rate. No more ‘sit-start’ debates on Williams – it’s a START until further notice.

We all look back at our redrafts and kick ourselves for things (never congratulate ourselves for great picks or great avoidances) – my main boogeyman thought from August redrafts? I got a lot of Mike Williams all summer, but in August redrafts, a few times, I’d let him sit out there as I took some stupid RB or whatever and I’d keep saying…”I’ll get Williams next round,” and then I’d bypass and say it again…and again…and then someone would take him and I’d be mad but then right back to chasing fairy tales. I’d like to punch that version of myself in the face for passing up on one of the best pure value picks of August/redraft 2021…and I was all over it all summer, and in most redrafts but the ones I missed/skipped…I hate myself.

We all have redraft regrets. That one is my main one. It was so simple…it was right there as such a value and I knew it, but I shrugged at it because I needed a thousand more RB lottery tickets (who are all hurt or cut from my rosters already).

 -- Tony Pollard (13-109-1, 3-31-0/3) had a heck of a game here but note he is still only working 25-35% of the snaps…and Week 1 he had 3 carries for 14 yards. I’m not sure I’d say he’s a ‘start’ just yet because he had a hot Week 2. He looks great, but the allure of Zeke (16-71-1, 2-26-0/2) is still so strong over that whole organization that Pollard will always be ‘the other guy’ until EE gets hurt/down-and-out.

I hope Pollard gets more run, but this is probably his 2021 lot in life…a 70/30 snap share split and best case 60/40 touch count split…with Zeke as the 60 or 70. It’s a fluid situation…I could change my tune if we see another closer to 50/50 split Week 3 again.

 -- Brandon Staley coached/coordinated the Rams 2020 to the #1 defense in the league last year. He’s brought that magic to the other L.A. – this Chargers defense is very smart/good. They are #7 in PPG allowed YTD and they just held Dak Prescott to 237 yards passing with 0 TD passes…that’s no small feat.

The Chargers defense is a potential top 5 in the league, but their schedule ahead is not great pre-Week 7 BYE. Mahomes-Carr-Baker/CLE-Lamar the next 4 weeks…QBs who do not allow big points to opposing DSTs due to their solid O-Lines or ability to not get sacked/turn the ball over at a high rate.

The LAC-DST could be a thing after their BYE Week 7 for sure. If they throw Mahomes fits this week…then everyone is going to be on them Week 4.

If you’re thinking there have been 5-8 teams I’ve named as potential top 5 DSTs for 2021 this past week, then you’re correct. That’s where we are in the NFL/FF…there’s several top defense candidates – but no obvious slam dunk/elite ones. Probably trumping everything/every metric/every analysis to be the best defense in the NFL is: ‘What defense is facing JAX or HOU this week?’

I think Arizona shows the most ‘it’ for a defense (to me) – but when they face a better offense, we’re at risk like with all DSTs (see: Week 2 v. MIN compared to Week 1 v. TEN). There is no Bears 2019 DST or DEN 2017-2018 DST right now…and maybe with the league having so many great QBs now that there will never be a great DST again.

This is a two DST season…one you have a strong hunch/analysis/scouting on (ARI, CAR, NO, BUF, etc.) and the one you see ahead next week and the week after that’s playing HOU-JAX-MIA…NYJ-NYG, etc., to use in a pinch when your ace DST has a bad or weaker matchup.

 -- The Dallas defense isn’t a threat for the top 5 in the league, but they aren’t terrible…and they’re young and improving. If they didn’t lose Demarcus Lawrence, they might be a defense that hit a decent stride in a few weeks…but losing Lawrence was rough.

They moved Micah Parsons (2 tackles, 1 sack, 4 QB hits) to the edge rush spot in Lawrence’s place…and that’s not a bad stop gap at all, but things would be better with Parsons back at LB and Lawrence off the edge.

That Parsons DROY bet looks even better with him making this positional move…it shows his flexibility on top of everything else – how many guys could be a rookie signal caller Week 1 at linebacker, then move to rush end Week 2 and get 4 QB hits?

 -- Jayron Kearse (6 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD) has stepped up nicely with the Donovan Wilson injury, Kearse is averaging 8.5 tackles per game his first two games as a new starter. He’s looked very solid and energetic, but I assume Wilson takes right back over upon his return from groin injury.

Snap Counts of Interest:

42 = Cook

34 = Parham

44 = Zeke

21 = Pollard

45 = Schultz

29 = Jarwin

60 = Lamb

60 = Amari

36 = Ced Wilson

45 = Ekeler

16 = Justin Jackson

10 = Roundtree

R.C. Fischer

FFM

22 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Raiders 26, Steelers 17

It’s hard to get a full read on the Raiders, or Steelers, from this game because right before the game started, we all found out that Joe Haden and Devin Bush were going to be inactive…and then if that wasn’t bad enough, T.J. Watt went down in-game early. It was a perfect storm for the Raiders to thrive/win.

The Raiders pretty much led wire-to-wire. The Steelers hung in there for a while, holding LV to field goals in the 1st-half…but then the TDs opened up and the Steelers offense is falling apart in 2021, so they couldn’t answer back like the Steelers of old.

Son (or daughter), we’re going to have to have a serious talk about the Steelers offense (and we will below) and how that relates to Fantasy things.

The Raiders are (2-0) and credit Jon Gruden for out-coaching his opponents the first two weeks, , despite having the lesser talented roster, and more credit for energizing this group – his team is playing with heart and energy. They should be (0-2)…because Baltimore handed them the win in Week 1, and then the Steelers lost 27% of their defensive starters for this game…which were the three most talented guys they had, so it was like 50%+ of the real defense was gone…the Raiders just happened to be the opponent of good fortune on the schedule. The Vegas schedule should now allow them to get to (4-1)…before their typical later-in-season collapse. Enjoy it for the now!

Fantasy Player Notes…

OK, let’s have a serious discussion about the Steelers offense…

In Fantasy, we don’t have time to fool around. Many of us don’t have time to go through several more weeks trying to see if there will be a turn upward. Sure, it’s possible this offense advances as the season goes on – new O-Line and new O-C and all, but I have to judge what I see and sense now…and I see and sense that this Steelers offense blows…because they have a dreadful O-Line and a terrible head coach for offense.

The days of Big Ben just slinging it, willing things to happen to save the day…this O-Line is not going to help that, if Ben can even do that at a high level anymore. Ben looks fine enough, but he has no time (so he quick throws a ton to try and move the offense) and no real run game (again) to assist him (the #32 run game in the NFL right now).

I don’t know how this offense gets better from here. Bad O-Lines = problems. Ben isn’t getting any younger, and Mike Tomlin isn’t getting any smarter. It’s not the worst offense in the world…it’s just not a top 10…or top half of the league one. #20 in 3rd-down conversions YTD, and #24 in total yards and points scored. Facing Buffalo Week 1 is skewing the numbers bad, so there is that – but in a game against Las Vegas, as improved as the Raiders might be, at home…the Steelers looked as bad on offense as they did Week 1.

I just don’t see how this gets radically better because it’s an O-Line and coaching issue at its heart…and how can they fix that on the fly? The Steelers #30 in yards per carry on the ground offensively and dead last in rushing yards. Nice 1st-round draft pick in 2021, morons…

Let’s go through each position group:

 -- Big Ben (27-40 for 295 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is OK, but you just watched a game where the opposing QB is lesser-thought of name-wise but is better for the NFL now…and for Fantasy.

We discussed this on the Video Q&A Tuesday night – Kirk Cousins is better in every way now than Big Ben…better O-Line, better run game, better WR trio, better playing conditions for the passing game. Derek Carr might be on par with Big Ben for the NFL, but with his bad O-Line he has advantages with playing conditions, opponents/schedule, and his lack of a run game is forcing him to throw more…and he’s just as good/better at it than Ben. Carr leads the NFL in passing attempts after two weeks.

I thought the bad O-Line would lead to more radical passing attempts from Ben, and it might happen as we go on -- but guys like Cousins-Carr are facing similar situations…but are just better at with better weather conditions to throw in over time over the season. This is a week where everyone starts chasing Cousins-Carr again, but they still don’t fully respect them…if given a choice, I want in on Cousins (the #10 QB in FF YTD) over Ben, and Carr. And Carr over Ben for FF.

 -- Diontae Johnson (9-105-0/12) is still Ben’s guy…and that’s not changing. Knee issue aside, Diontae is a legit WR1 PPR given the circumstances.

Chase Claypool (3-70-0/9) is a Greek god of WRs, but all we see every week is Ben just heaving him passes deep…jump balls, which is great sometimes, but Claypool is not landing enough of them to fully pop for FF WR1 hopes. There’s more and more Claypool talk from Ben and Tomlin…they know there’s a nuclear bomb in their possession, but so far it looks like they have no idea how to use it. Six catches this season on 14 targets – a 43% catch rate is ridiculous and a sign of a Ben/offense problem. Claypool seems stuck as a WR2-3 right now rather than a WR1-2 that he should be. They literally have no plan to get him the ball, to lead the way.

We might get a Claypool bump ahead if Diontae goes down, and thus Claypool is forced into real WR work…and blows up, then it may dawn on Ben/Tomlin they need to change strategy on Claypool. I’m holding Claypool right now, but it’s getting aggravating watching him go to waste. He’ll have a pop game soon and we’ll all be delighted again…but I want to see Claypool with a purpose, and we’re not getting that yet…and it’s a sign just how dysfunctional this offense is right now, when you can’t exploit Claypool for big plays consistently.

 -- Najee Harris (10-38-0, 5-43-1/5) is wildly overrated, but he’s going to be OK for Fantasy numbers. My greater point of constantly berating that Najee sucks is more to drive home the point that Najee is way overvalued. He’s a nice RB2 +/- for FF, but people see him as the 2nd-3rd-best RB in all of Fantasy in days to come. The most value, redraft, you’ll get out of Najee is trading him for the world.

Every week that goes by where he’s exposed as human…his value declines a little more, drip-by-drip.

If Najee had a better O-Line and better offense in general, he’d be a nice RB1 on volume. He’s not bad, but he’s not so good he can Derrick Henry his way through all the problems. You were sold a bill of goods on Najee…the public bought and paid for it and is still willing to.

Remember how excited you were for Clyde Edwards-Helaire last year? How about today? Jonathan Taylor going to be a boss in 2021? Excited about that yet? The value of hot rookie name RBs escapes quickly but Najee has Saquon super-value…he’ll hold value longer than most because of the mega-hype.

Najee is avg/good with a terrible O-Line…and there’s a reason why the Steelers are #32 in the NFL in rushing.

 -- I want to like Pat Freiermuth (4-36-0/4) but he’s stuck in this mess too…and he’s not going to get looks above the WRs, or Najee…and they need him to stay in and block a bunch due to the crap O-Line…so, Patty F’s 2021 FF season upside is capped.

Over to the Raiders…

 -- You saw a pretend FF-audition game of Derek Carr (28-37 for 382 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) vs. Big Ben here…and how do you not walk away thinking Carr is the better FF option? Carr had another TD or two and 20-40+ yards stolen from him in this game…or it would’ve been back-to-back 400+ yard passing games the first two games of the season.

Carr is improving, being allowed to cut it loose…and can run a little bit here and there. Ben is declining and doesn’t offer rushing hopes. In general, I like them both about the same as 2021 NFL QBs…but Carr is ascending, and Ben looks muted. Why wouldn’t I switch FF-horses here?

 -- The best news of all is buried this far into the report…

Bryan Edwards (3-40-0/3) is ready for a breakout. Now, he may not soon because Carr never looks for him…but we’re getting closer to that happening.

Rewind the tape…

Last week, I pooh-poohed the Edwards breakout after Week 1 because I did not believe Edwards was a desired part of the passing game…just a guy out there available. Three targets in Week 2 later, my point was proven.

You may have sold Edwards off ahead of Week 2 because I was saying I was open to it…in redraft. If anyone was hyped about him after Week 1, I wasn’t diamond handing him…I’d sell if the price was right. https://youtu.be/alwdUofyGGg

This week, I’m still not above selling him (redraft)…but his weak stats sucked away the little value pop he had last week. I’m not just giving him away. So, I’m back into Diamond Hands mode on Edwards here -- what I saw in this game was the first turn upwards that I’ve seen with Edwards. He’s running routes with confidence and getting open (Carr just isn’t looking yet). He’s catching everything thrown his way…catching like a true #1 dominator. He had a sweet, simple TD catch before the half…called back for a penalty elsewhere. Almost had another TD late. He actually should have had 5 catches for 50+ yards and a TD or two here.

Still, nothing seems on purpose. It’s all random. They aren’t making Edwards a thing yet…but I believe the wagons are circling that it might take another turn higher in the next week or two.

I envision it will go like this: Edwards will have a game in the next few weeks where Waller is totally taken out and the Raiders plan to expose an opponent’s weak secondary mismatch on Edwards by going heavy on Edwards…and once Carr and the world sees how successful, then it will be hard for them to ignore it ahead.

Week 3 v. MIA probably isn’t that time. Week 4 at LAC might see that glimpse, because LAC won’t plan for Edwards, they’ll double down on Waller (Staley is no fool). Week 5 vs. CHI might also be that time.

I don’t know if it will be Week 4…Week 14…or Week 1 of 2022, but I’ll keep saying the same thing – it’s coming. Redraft you can bet against that Carr will make this happen if you want, you might be right --  but in Dynasty, you want to hold your positions or acquire cheap after this weaker Week 2 (on paper) and as his Week 1 big play event in OT is forgotten.

Edwards is going to be a star someday…I just don’t know when. I saw the first real encouraging sign of it in this game.

 -- Is the Vegas-DST for real?

No, probably not. I think they’re better than our 2021 preconceptions. We all thought this might be a bottom 5 DST…but it looks like they might be a #15-20 range one…possibly useful in a good matchup…emerging as we go with a lot of young defenders. Might be OK Weeks 3 (MIA) and 5 (CHI) but not a sure thing…just a possible thing.

Side Note: Solomon Thomas (2 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 QB hits) is either turning a corner, or the Steelers O-Line is worse than we thought. I don’t know that it is Thomas, but we’ll keep watching to see if he’s finally figured it out.

Wrap it up the way we always should with the Steelers: https://youtu.be/Ag7598SYhM0

Snap Counts of Interest:

54 = JuJu

49 = Diontae

43 = Claypool

12 = J Washington

53 = Najee

03 = Snell

33 = Freiermuth

24 = Ebron

61 = Waller

49 = Edwards

44 = Ruggs

29 = Renfrow

11 = Zay Jones

47 = Drake

19 = P Barber

Ross Jacobs

FFM

22 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Packers 35, Lions 17 (By Ross Jacobs)

Well, all is right in Packer land. Week 1 against the Saints was just a fluke, and this game was what you can expect with their offense going forward. Aaron Rodgers and company are fine! Why didn't everyone just R-E-L-A-X?

The media are such gullible fools sometimes. It's amazing that an entire group of people can groupthink their way into buying whatever BS story is peddled every week. And they can even convince themselves of completely opposite stories from one week to the next. Last week the Packers were terrible, this week they are Superbowl contenders again. Unreal.

The reality is that this Packers team looks very shaky. Last week may have been off for various reasons and things looked exaggerated, but it wasn't entirely a fluke. The Packers have problems.

Their first issue is the defense isn't very good. They couldn't stop the lowly Lions the entire first half and were behind 17-14 at that point. In the second half the Lions committed a few more penalties and the Packers finally squatted on the short stuff because the Lions have no decent downfield receivers (well they do but they aren't using the one they have...more on who that is in a moment) and held them scoreless the rest of the game.

Their second problem is their offense isn't very good either. 35 points sounds sexy but they really only scored 28. Their last TD came courtesy of a Goff interception as he was trying to make a play which set up the Packers at the Detroit 20 yard line. Against an atrocious Lions secondary that just lost their best player for the year, Rodgers only managed 255 yards and his only receiver that did literally anything was Adams.

Beating up on the Lions shouldn't be considered a real measuring stick. We're talking about one of the two or three worst teams in the game this year. You have to do better than this to be considered a real contender. The Packers aren't. I bet the Vikings take the NFC North.

Fantasy Notes

--If you have Aaron Rodgers (22-27 for 255 yards, 4 TD/0 INT) you might want to consider selling him high right now. I know that sounds blasphemous, but hear me out, their schedule is a murderer's row of playoff teams. There are a few soft pass defenses mixed in on the way and Rodgers is going to have to throw to try and keep this team in games and that sounds like a great recipe, but between this shaky offensive line and how utterly terrible his receiving group is outside Adams, I think the best course might be to sell and head for safer pastures. Flip him for Hurts or Cousins or Dak or Herbert or whoever you like and ask for a couple other solid players to get thrown in. Don't sell him for pennies. And if you want to hold I can't say I blame you. There's an argument that this schedule is perfect for him. I don't subscribe to that school of thought though. I want to face weak teams with weak defenses.

--Ditto Aaron Jones (17-67-1, 6-48-3/6). I don't care that he scored 4 TD's against a pathetic defense. How often is that going to happen? Never again. 3 receiving TD's for a RB in one game is unheard of. I don't care that he looks better, faster, and smoother than I've ever seen him. Look how he struggled to run. Less than 4 ypc against a terrible defense is not a good sign. This offensive line is bad, the offense is average or just barely above average. Trade him for people panicking over Mixon or Gibson or something. Call me a worrier if you want. I don't like this setup and I don't like what I see from this offense.

--AJ Dillon (5-18-0, 1-8-0/1) hasn't started his uprising yet, but don't be shocked if he starts getting more touches as the season wears on. I could see the Packers switching to a more ground based offense to try and control the clock to keep opposing QB's off the field. They were using a lot of blocking TE's here and that's cutting into Tonyan's snaps as well.

--Will a WR other than Davante Adams please stand up?

Nope. Against arguably the worst secondary in the league, the GB receivers not named Adams caught a grand total of 4 passes for 26 yards. Randall Cobb (3-26-0/3) got three and Equanemeous St Brown (1-0-0/1) got one. That's it. No Allen Lazard (0 targets), no Marquez Valdes-Scantling (who had no catches on 4 targets although Rodgers overthrew him at least twice on open deep balls), no sucky Amari Rodgers. Tell me this passing game isn't dying.

Robert Tonyan's (3-52-1/3) TE1 hopes are dead as well. He's only going to be useful on weeks when he catches a TD and I guarantee you Rodgers isn't throwing 48 again which means Tonyan isn't catching 11 either.

--The problem with Detroit's offense

I am so sick of hearing people disparage Jared Goff (26-36 for 246 yards, 2 TD/1 INT, 4-46-0). He is a good QB and everyone is routinely underrating him and assuming this Detroit offense sucks because he's at the helm. Goff is not the problem. The problem is their WR group is what you would get if you took Davante Adams off the Packers. Yeah, I went there.

--Detroit's wide receiver report

RC and I were hoping for a flash of deep sleeper Trinity Benson (1-24-0/3) because we're likely the only two analysts that even know he exists, much less how talented he is. It didn't happen here, but it very nearly did. The last play for Detroit was a heave by Goff into the endzone and Benson nearly came down with the ball but fantastic rookie corner Eric Stokes broke up the pass. Benson was not involved in the game plan in any meaningful way although he was on the field a decent amount (the 4th receiver in snaps and role), but in his one catch I saw all I needed to know he is without a doubt their most explosive receiver. 

The Lions would be doing themselves a massive favor by getting him the ball more and letting him work medium/deep. Their offense is playing small ball right now and teams are starting to sit on it. They need a deep threat and Benson is their best option to play that role. Kalif Raymond (2-18-0/2) is fast but nowhere near as good an all-around receiver as Benson.

As I talked about in the draft guide, Quintez Cephus (4-63-1/7) is a really solid player and a better option than most of the other guys Detroit was trying to use. He's not a star, he's not a #1 receiver, but he's a decent possession receiver that should have a role. He's going to be overmatched as the top guy moving forward but what other choice do the Lions have? He's better than Raymond and overrated rookie Amon Ra St Brown (3-18-0/5).

The top receiving option for Goff is TJ Hockenson (8-66-1/9) and it's not close. Hockenson is the safe, mid-level option and is usually matched up with a linebacker so it's an easier throw. He's not the best TE ever, doesn't run great routes, get much separation, run past or over defenders, or anything spectacular really. He's just a better option than anything else on the team. It's working for fantasy I guess. He'll be a TE1, probably top 5 just based on volume.

The Lions will 100% be drafting a WR in one of the first 2 rounds of the 2022 draft, and I am terrified they are going to take my boy Treylon Burks. RC, if that happens I'm blaming you.

--Detroit's rushing “attack”

It's still a 50-50 split in workload between Jamaal Williams (7-25-0, 3-12-0/3) and D'Andre Swift (8-37-0, 4-41-0/5) despite the difference in snap counts. Neither is very exciting. Everyone went crazy when they both caught 8 passes last week, but that is an outlier. This is more what you can expect. Three or so catches each, no scores, and bad averages rushing with around 10 carries apiece. I guess you can use them as desperation RB3's in ppr but that's about it.

IDP Notes

--It was one of my favorite players from last year (but with the Cardinals) De'Vondre Campbell (13 tackles, 1 pd) that led the charge for the Packers here and not Krys Barnes (4 tackles). I loved what I saw from Campbell last year, but I think he may have lost a step or something because he was having trouble covering Hockenson at times. That's why he had so many tackles here. The Lions play only short stuff and Campbell is right there working the middle.

I would expect Barnes to get back to his usual numbers against better teams moving forward. If the Packers are down to better teams a lot their opponents will start running more and that's where Barnes excels at racking tackles.

--Yet another two rookie corners impressed me here. This has been a fantastic class of cornerbacks so far. Every one of these guys is stepping right into large roles and holding down the fort. Usually rookie corners get handled early on, but these guys are really hanging in well.

Eric Stokes (1 tackle, 2 pd) already looks like the perfect compliment to Jaire Alexander. He made a huge jump in snaps this week going from 8 week 1 to 44 here. The Lions aren't much of a test and I want to see him against better competition, but Stokes did a great job smothering Cephus after he roasted Kevin King on the first series.

The other impressive guy was Ifeatu Melifonwu (2 tackles, 1 pd). He's not perfect but you can see the athleticism and how hard he's fighting despite the tough circumstances. I think he's going to be a mainstay of this defense the next few years. He's going to take some lumps in 2021 though and that's not on him.

Snap Counts of Interest

45 = Aaron Jones

19 = AJ Dillon

57 = Davante Adams

43 = Marques Valdes-Scantling

42 = Allen Lazard

12 = Randall Cobb

51 = Cephus

36 = Raymond

34 = St. Brown

24 = T Benson

36 = Swift

22 = J Williams

R.C. Fischer

FFM

21 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: 49ers 17, Eagles 11

The 49ers might be the worst (2-0) team in the NFL. Strike that…they ARE the worst (2-0) team in football. They should’ve lost this game…and beating Detroit Week 1 is meaningless. The Eagles were the better team here…but they shot themselves in the foot about a thousand times – as the Nick Sirianni genius label applied by Philly fans and media lasted one whole week before they took it back and now have him on the hot seat and are looking over all the currently undefeated 2021 college coaches who could lead the team next year. Eagles fans are a very patient lot.

I would say the Eagles are my favorite to win the NFC East, but when I saw that Brandon Brooks went on I.R. it made me pause on my enthusiasm for a Philly East title. It’s between Dallas and Philly, from what I see…I’m quasi-abandoning Washington with Fitz gone.

The Eagles coulda/shoulda scored 20+ points here and taken control of the game early and put away a weak 49ers team, but they had ‘one of those games’…penalties at the wrong time, near-miss TDs not converted.

Do yourself a favor…take Green Bay +3.5 ASAP for Week 3 SNF versus San Fran.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- What’s nice about a Jalen Hurts (12-23 for 190 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 10-82-1) ‘down’ stat game is…it’s never that far down because of his elite running skills. You can pencil him in, or use a pen, for 50+ rushing yards a game with 100+ yard rushing games every 3-4-5 games.

Hurts had a 30+ yard TD strike called back with a WR having stepped an inch out of bounds sprinting down the sidelines to get the pass. Hurts had a goal line rushing TD attempt fall just short. Hurts’s 90+ yard bomb to Quez Watkins was 3-4 yards short of a TD. Hurts had an OK FF game here, but it was nearly a best-of-the-week event.

Don’t give up on Hurts…acquire him on the fans and media roasting him, this week for the loss…because Philly fans are the worst, and the media hates Hurts for being better than Tua – they don’t want you to realize that or it would expose how awful they are at football things…so, Hurts is slammed with every incompletion and Tua and Jameis ‘just need to clean up those mistakes’.

I’ll take all your Hurts stock you will sell cheap, to be my #2 QB…or rotational #1 on matchups. It’s a good buy low week on Hurts in all formats/considerations.

Oh, and what I also like here is – Hurts is bombing away. It’s not dink and dunk…Hurts is getting after it. His air yard metrics don’t even seem correct, as I look at them. He probably unleashed 4-5 or so 40+ yard throws in this game.

 -- On the other hand, Jimmy Garoppolo (22-30 for 189 yards, 1 TDs/0 INTs) is the worst. He’s a bygone era QB who has been injured too much and overcoached by ‘geniuses’…geniuses who might not be so in this era -- but were 10 years ago.

Trey Lance didn’t play a snap, which tells you all you need to know about what Kyle Shanahan thinks of Lance’s readiness. Shanny will stick with JG because he hopes Jimmy will game-manage this team to the playoffs. The second the season collapses (give it a few weeks), he’ll turn to Lance to make a mess but it will be OK because it’s getting him ready for 2022. The 49ers are in 1st-place in the NFC West today…and they are going to finish in last before it’s all over because they are terrible…JG is dreadfully boring and Lance is going to be a 2021 flop when he gets in, he’s not ready…and it’s still up for debate whether he ever will be.

 -- The 49ers backfield report…

Quick Summary: All these guys are interchangeable, just the way Kyle Shanahan wants it. Don’t get too comfortable on any of them in any given week because it could be totally different the next week, and so-on.

Longer Summary…

Elijah Mitchell (17-42-0, 2-11-0/2) was definitely the lead desire here. Shanny was really pushing him without much relief from others to start the game – but the Eagles run defense is so good, Mitchell was struggling to get space to run. Mitchell has a hurt shoulder, but looks like he’ll be the only healthy (enough) RB for Week 3 vs. GB, which should be an OK matchup for him.

JaMycal Hasty (5-38-0, 4-21-0/5) came in relief, eventually, for Mitchell and looked as good or better. If everyone was healthy, Shanny would go some RBBC/split between Mitchell and Hasty.

The odd man out is Trey Sermon (1-8-0)…one carry, hurt and gone. If he is not playing Week 3 to be a warm body to go with Mitchell (with Hasty inactive due to injury)…if Sermon is out this week due to his injury, in redraft, you should bail for any other reasonable options. You wasted a 6th-9th-round pick on Sermon…because rookies are magical unicorns that might be the next Jim Brown…you don ‘t know. Well, now we know.

 -- The Eagles backfield is nearly as dull, because Hurts takes so much action. Miles Sanders (13-55-0, 1-4-0/2) is mostly dead…an RB3 more than RB2.

Kenneth Gainwell (6-14-0, 2-18-0/3) is trying to take that starting job/take more share. I see Gainwell in on many key snaps…there’s not much FF-scoring for the Eagles RBs, and then it’s a split of Sanders-Gainwell. Not good for FF.

If you bought the analyst’s fraudulent scouting of Sanders and took him in redraft…you’re stuck. Your only hope is that Hurts get hurt, but that’s not likely to save him either. Sanders is as mediocre an RB as there is in the NFL…and he’s in a terrible spot to try and get FF numbers.

 -- I want to hit three SF receiver notes…

1) Deebo Samuel (6-93-0/8, 2-8-0) is CLEARLY the #1 WR for the 49ers…no one is even a close second. He’s going to be a WR1 in PPR threat…as long as Jimmy G. is at QB. When they switch to Lance, I’ll be trying to sell most likely. Not a dump at any cost, but this works better with JG…I believe.

2) Brandon Aiyuk (1-6-0/2)…where are all the analysts who were saying this guy was the next great NFL WR, and better for FF than Deebo? Hey, we all make mistakes…but this one is really bad. Ross J. and I both saw something was wrong with Aiyuk in the preseason, but we didn’t think he would be such an outcast for touches right away.

Aiyuk is a talent, but something is going on off the field…and he was struggling to catch the ball in the preseason.

3) I’m so sick of George Kittle (4-17-0/4) as a Mt. Rushmore of Fantasy TEs each season/week…like you skipped Kelce and Waller, but were so thrilled with Kittle as a ‘value’…because any old TE will do, amiright?

Kittle is averaging 4.0 rec., 47.5 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game 2 games into 2021. No TDs. 2 TDs in 8 regular-season games last year.

2 games in 2021, 8 games in 2020, 3 playoff games in 2019 and his last 3 games of 2019 season = 16 games (what used to be a full season)…and in those last 16 games, Kittle has scored just 3 TDs.

In those last 16 games, Kittle’s likely outcome in a game is: 4-5 catches, 40-70 yards, and no TD. Great.

8 catches, 9 targets, 95 yards, 0 TDs = Kittle 2021 YTD in two games total

7 catches, 7 targets, 94 yards, 0 TDs = Maxx Williams last week for Arizona

 -- Ross Jacobs was telling me how good he thought the Eagles defense was after Week 1…holding ATL to 6 points/2 FGs. I agreed they were better than expected, but I wondered how much of it was the dreadful Atlanta Falcons offense (Arthur Smith is not a genius)?

Well, the Eagles held the 49ers down under 20 points this game as well…and the Eagles are the current #2 defense in PPG allowed after 2 weeks of the season. What’s impressed me – their run defense is really good. The numbers show them as a mediocre run defense so far, but my eyes say they are a top 10 run defense, potentially.

Javon Hargrave (7 tackles, 2 TFLs) is a monster anchoring the D-Line in the middle.

 -- One SF defense note…the 49ers are down several corners, so they’ve pushed rookie Demmondre Lenoir (5 tackles, 3 PDs) and I have to say he looked really good for being rushed into the starting lineup. He’s helping stop the 49ers pass defense bleeding.

Snap Counts of Interest:

39 = Sanders

19 = Gainwell

49 = DeV Smith

42 = Reagor

29 = Quez Watkins

38 = Goedert

37 = Ertz

43 = Mitchell

25 = Hasty

01 = Sermon

49 = Deebo

38 = Aiyuk

24 = Sherfield

20 = Sanu

R.C. Fischer

FFM

21 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Cardinals 34, Vikings 33

I just watched tape of two of the better teams in the NFL…like, a player or two away from being serious Super Bowl contenders…like, legit threat to win their division type teams.

This was an entertaining game with some spicy units on either side of the field. It’s a shame the game was settled by a missed field goal as time expired, although I always enjoy Mike Zimmer getting burned by his kickers – he deserves it, as he watches Daniel Carlson become one of the best kickers in the league. Zimmer is a total jerk in general…and 10x a jerk towards his kickers, and thus his kickers always fail him and he then thinks his attitude is warranted – when he’s the one causing it.

Let me commence with some bombastic statements after watching these teams for a second time this season…

*The Vikings may possess one of the 3-5 best offenses in the NFL. K.J. Osborn’s emergence has changed this offense.

*Arizona has the best, most menacing defense in the NFL. I don’t care that the Vikings jumped on them early (see note above on the prowess of the MIN offense). The Vikings scored a TD on the 2nd play of the game in a broken coverage wide-open deep ball. They scored their next TD when a CB slipped in coverage and left Adam Thielen open for a red zone easy TD strike. Minny scored another TD with 8+ minutes left in the 2nd-quarter. 22 minutes into this game it was 20-7 Vikings.

In the final 38 minutes, the Vikings never scored an offensive TD again, and didn’t convert a 3rd-down again until late in the game. Arizona outscored the Vikings 27-13 over those final 38 minutes to walk away with the win.

*Oh, and Arizona has one of the best 3-5 offenses in the NFL too. Maybe one good O-Lineman away from being arguably the best offense in the NFL…better than the Chiefs…that’s how good this offense is getting (because of Kyler).

Minnesota has lost two games they coulda/shoulda won…they should be (2-0). They went toe-to-toe with two of the better defenses in the NFL…yes, the Bengals defense is now pretty solid. When this Vikings offense/team catches a break in the schedule, they might really shine/wow some people. It may start Week 3 hosting Seattle – a best bet for Week 3…Vikings +1.5 over Seattle at the loudest stadium, about the only home field advantage place left in the NFL.

The Vikings are a cornerback away from winning the NFC North. How did they not get in on getting Bradley Roby from Houston? Does the GM and HC want to be fired in Minnesota?

These are two of the better teams in the NFL…maybe one player away from being a serious NFC title contender. Arizona might just be the best team in the NFC in a few more weeks…but their O-Line may be the thing that holds them back from getting there.

Arizona is sitting +500 (which is 4th place out of the 4 NFC West teams) to win the NFC West right now – I’m telling you they are going to win that division (if Kyler stays healthy/the team stays relatively healthy). +1600 for Arizona to win the NFC is a flyer bet to cheer on. *Using FanDuel odds.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Can we start to say that Kyler Murray (29-36 for 400 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs, 5-31-1) is the best Fantasy QB in the game? Kyler beat Mahomes, and all QBs in FF PPG (4pts per pass TD) last season (Weeks 1-16) and he might do it again this year…with even more distance.

We know what Kyler adds with his legs, but the Mahomes-like passer ability is coming into focus. He is making some throws that are ‘wow’. He’s always been able to, but this Air Raid has been so nothing and the O-Line has been so shaky for two years, it’s made Kyler a scramble for his life thrower and most everything desperately to DeAndre Hopkins. But now the O-Line is the best he’s had (but still ‘meh’ with upside), and a big change/upgrade is Chase Edmonds as the best RB for this offense…and Rondale Moore has changed the entire passing game…and he’s just getting warmed up.

Everything around Kyler is upgraded this offseason…and he was already the top FF QB in 4pts last season.

Remember, when I pushed everyone to move up in Dynasty Rookie Drafts…to sell your souls…to get Kyler in that Rookie Draft? Still rather have Josh Jacobs…or are you happy with Kyler?

I’m a big Kyler fan, but I doubted he was going to take that next step from B+ to A…but he’s taking that next step right now. He might be underway on an MVP season.

 -- Also, QB praise for the very underrated Kirk Cousins (22-32 for 244 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT)…he just had a very good game against the toughest defense in the NFL.

K.J. Osborn (5-91-1/6) added to this offense, to push it to a legit 3WR set offense…with a very good Cousins, and the greatness of Dalvin Cook (22-131-0, 2-17-0/3) – this is a top 5 or so offense in the league in the making.

 -- Let’s talk about the WRs changing these offenses…

The aforementioned Osborn…he’s like adding another Justin Jefferson to this offense. Arguably the most explosive WR group in the NFL now…that’s how nice Osborn is. However, you can’t go too hot after Osborn for FF because he’s definitely 3rd in the pecking order…but he’s a legit WR3 floor with WR2 hopes to the upside.

Rondale Moore (7-114-1/8) is a star in the making, but he’s developing so fast that he might be a star WR by Weeks 3-4. He’s the perfect piece…the missing piece to make everything in this Air Raid go to another level. I’ve never seen the Arizona offense, or Kyler look so good as they did in this game, and I think Rondale has a lot to do with that. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Rondale topples all of Justin Jefferson’s rookie record WR numbers this season.

Moore is going to be a mega-star for FF…he’s built/designed to be an FF weapon of mass destruction. He’d be costly to acquire today but might be worth it.

Side note: Moore had one long TD in this game…and he missed a 2nd on a jet sweep 1-yard short of a score.

 -- Chase Edmonds (8-46-0, 5-29-0/5) is also a perfect piece for this Air Raid. 4.5 rec., 90.5 total yards per game…just no TDs yet. He’s 4+ catches a game easy and 10x better than the slug James Conner…the entire offense grinds to a halt when Conner comes in. It’s the achilles heel of the offense…wasting plays with Conner in.

 -- What got into Maxx Williams (7-94-0/7)? I think he had more catches in this game than he has for his entire career. More catches in this game than all TEs in the Kliff Kingsbury era.

Can it sustain? I mean, if Kyler wants it to…but this offense has never wanted to work the TE much before…and with all their weapons, why would they change it now? You FFPC/TE bonus folks can take a look, but I don’t think it’s going to work…but it looked promising for this one game.

 -- Danielle Hunter (7 tackles, 3.0 sacks) is back. With Hunter back, and Nick Vigil (8 tackles, 1 INT TD) taking over the Eric Wilson spot…and Anthony Barr returning – the Vikings are two CBs away from being a top 10 NFL team, but their terrible cover skills kill them.

 -- No defense in the NFL is as good as Arizona, in my book. Buffalo is really good. The Panthers are coming on. Full strength Pittsburgh is up there. Full strength New Orleans with Bradley Roby soon…might be a top contender. None are moving and playing like the Cardinals.

Arizona is not perfect. They're not as fully great in the secondary as you’d like, but pretty stout (and watch Malcolm Butler just walk back in to re-join this team now that it is becoming an epic defense machine). But what is so impressive about Arizona’s defense is the speed they play with. They might end Week 2 as the best defense on 3rd-downs…and doing so against pretty solid offenses/QBs. This is not an elite defense, but I think it’s the closest to one that I’m seeing on tape. It’s not there yet, but it’s close.

Week 3 at Jacksonville could be a bloodbath/great event for DST scoring for Arizona.

Four Arizona D notes…

1) Jordan Hicks (6 tackles, 1 PD) is starting, and played 97% of the snaps. Supposed starter Zaven Collins (1 tackles, 2 PDs) is not starting and played 41% of the snaps. That’s the way it should be right now. This defense is better with Hicks starting.

2) Isaiah Simmons (8 tackles, 1 FF) is playing out of his mind…but they still should’ve drafted an O-Lineman, just like they should have in 2021 instead of Collins. Regardless, he’s been terrific.

3) Budda Baker (8 tackles, 2 TFLs) is so-so-so good…the best safety in the game.

4) DT Corey Peters (2 tackles) is an unsung defender here…he just caves in his side of the line with immense surges when he’s in.

Snap Counts of Interest:

59 = Hopkins

51 = AJG

38 = Kirk

28 = Rondale

39 = Edmonds

24 = Conner

61 = Thielen

53 = Jefferson

36 = Osborn

Ross Jacobs

FFM

21 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Panthers 26, Saints 7 (By Ross Jacobs)

I'm not going to bore you with the details of this game because it was a total beatdown by the Panthers, but there are definitely some things we can take away from this game.

The first is that this is a pretty salty Panthers defense, an easy top 10 squad. They aren't elite yet, but they are getting there/in the conversation for best in the league. The entire Carolina team is so polished and well-coached, as we expected from Matt Rhule. But they have one big fat wart that's going to hold them back and we all know who that is...more on that in a moment. They might win 10 games anyways.

The Saints got throttled here, but know that the final score was both completely indicative of what happened but also a bit overblown. They got crushed but also did a lot to beat themselves as well. Penalties took away what little offense they might have had in the first half and by the second half they were just too far behind and the Panthers D was completely fired up. Winston only had 7 pass attempts at the 2-minute warning in the first half and finished with 22 total. What the Saints did to the Packers week 1 happened to them this week. Winston sucks but the offense won't be this terrible every week. It was just one of those games.

--Fantasy Notes

That big fat wart I mentioned...everyone knows it's Sam Darnold (26-38 for 305, 2 TD/1 INT). This is as good as it's going to get for Darnold. He was barely pressured all day, the top opposing CB was out, and he still threw a dumbass interception and nearly had 2-3 more. The only score the Saints got happened because Darnold decided to try and flip the ball to his RB while being sacked except there were two defensive tackles between him and the RB. Guess what happened. And there were multiple other terrible throws he tried to force into double coverage. 

It's entirely possible with a little more luck that the Saints could have won this game if they capitalized on every bad Darnold throw. That's how terrible he is. Darnold is going to cost this team wins and it's a shame because they are so solid otherwise. I really hope Matt Rhule comes to his senses and ditches this mess next year. If he doesn't I really think Darnold could cause him to lose his job somewhere down the line.

Darnold is a trainwreck but even he can't seem to slow down the best player in fantasy. I don't think I have to tell anyone that Christian McCaffrey (24-72-1, 5-65-0/6) is pretty good. He's still the offense, don't worry. Once the TD's start coming he's going to be the overall RB1 and single best fantasy scorer again this year. He came up a yard short of another TD on two different occasions here. It will happen eventually.

Chuba Hubbard (8-10-0) is just another guy. If McCaffrey went down there would likely be some type of split between Hubbard and Royce Freeman. It would be hard to trust Hubbard too as this offensive line isn't great at run blocking.

The Carolina passing game is limited to short, safe throws because of Darnold, and that means that DJ Moore (8-79-1/11) is the engine that he uses. Nothing is going to change that. Expect good ppr work from Moore this year, a backend WR1 or 1.5.

With Darnold unable to hit anything deep that leaves his old buddy Robby Anderson (3-38-0/6) out in the cold. He'll have a splash play here or there but he's essentially dead for fantasy. There are better options to chase.

Brandon Zylstra (3-44-1/3) is playing fewer snaps than rookie Terrace Marshall (3-17-0/3) but looks much better than the rookie. If Rhule is as smart as I think then Zylstra's role might grow more as the year goes on and he pushes Marshall out. We'll see. You can't use either in fantasy though.

Dan Arnold (3-55-0/4) was 50-50 with Ian Thomas (1-7-0/2) in week 1 but played fewer snaps here because they were running the ball more. Tommy Tremble played more for the same reason. Arnold looks exponentially better as a receiver than either of the other two. Thomas looks like he put on weight and it's slowing him down. Arnold looks like a big WR. They really should use him more, especially attacking LB's over the middle. He's such a mismatch.

Wonder what the media excuses will be for Jameis Winston (11-22 for 111 yards, 0 TD/2 INT, 3-19-1) this week? He's such a joke it's unreal. I'm legitimately unsure who is worse between Winston and Darnold. Watch his interception from this game if you want a laugh. How anyone can continue to think he's a franchise QB is beyond me. I will say, however, that he won't be quite this bad most weeks. The offense got off to a rough start with a bunch of penalties and then a tough Carolina defense crushed what little life they had left. It was a bad day but should be a bit better most weeks. You still can't count on anything in this offense with Winston as the lead...

...and that includes the great Alvin Kamara (8-5-0, 4-25-0/6). There's nothing wrong with Kamara, just nowhere to go here and no one to get it to him in space. Without Michael Thomas it's easy for the defense to just key on Kamara as well. Volume isn't going to save him. There is one hope though...

...and that's Taysom Hill. Hill didn't throw any passes here, but he did start taking a few wildcat snaps later in the game as the team was desperately trying to catch a spark. They might make this change if Winston continues to struggle this bad. If they do there's a chance this offense could come back to life.

As the offense continues to go down the sink with Winston it's killing off any Marquez Callaway (2-8-0/4) hopes. I do think things will get better on this front. Again, it was a strange game where nothing got going and the Panthers wiped out everything else. Callaway was open despite good coverage. It's not going to be good except in bursts where Winston can blindly fling him 50-50 balls to come down with, but Callaway should start ticking up a little, maybe not enough though. He's got a lot of good corners coming his way. Until we see otherwise he's a WR3 at best.

If Callaway and Kamara aren't getting numbers you know nobody else on this offense is either. I don't like the matchup with the Patriots next week either.

--IDP Notes

This Carolina defense is full of really good players, but the two guys that made life hell for Jameis this game were Brian Burns (4 tackles, 1 sack) and Haason Reddick (3 tackles, 1.5 sacks). They were abusing the Saints offensive line all day.

Another great addition to that defense is Morgan Fox (2 tackles, 0.5 sacks) who the Rams stupidly let go. He's a menace on the interior of the line and was helping open things up for everyone else.

Rookie Jaycee Horn (1 pd) didn't have much to do today. It was hard to get a read on him with as bad as the Saints were on offense, but I thought he looked good from what I saw. He wasn't shadowing Callaway as much as I thought. I think they are mixing coverages around for now. I wouldn't count on him to shut down the best opposing WR because of that, even if he is really good already.

The Saints defense actually played pretty well here. They kept McCaffrey in check in the run game but just couldn't get to Darnold frequently enough, mostly because he throws the ball like it will burn his hands if he holds it too long. They are still a solid squad, possibly top 10 and will be better with the return of Marshon Lattimore.

Demario Davis (12 tackles, 1 tfl, 1 pd) has been such an underrated defender for years. I never understood why the Jets let him go (well I do, their management sucked at the time). His high tackle counts here obviously come due to a McCaffrey heavy offense but he's a good player and will get his numbers regardless.

Two Saints rookie defenders were impressive here. Corner Paulson Adebo (7 tackles) was on DJ Moore all game and while he got beat routinely, he was all over Moore. It was nearly always a contested catch or the ball was just inches past Adebo's outstretched arm. He's going to be a really good corner and will be much better when Lattimore is back and he doesn't have to shadow opposing #1's. He's already playing nearly 100% of the defensive snaps.

The other rookie was 1st round DE Payton Turner (5 tackles, 3 tfl, 1 sack). His sack was an impressive bull rush where he just pushed his man straight back into Darnold and engulfed him. He looks like a fine replacement for Trey Hendrickson.

--Snap Count of Interest

39 = Terrace Marshall

14 = Brandon Zylstra

52 = Ian Thomas

29 = Tommy Tremble

22 = Dan Arnold

32 = Callaway

24 = Humphrey

21 = Deonte

23 = Trautman

18 + Juwan Johnson

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

20 September 2021

Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...

R.C. Fischer

FFM

20 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Washington 30, Giants 29

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Washington was lucky to sneak out of this game with a win. The Giants mostly outplayed them all night, and yet the game came down to a Washington field goal attempt that went wide but a penalty was called on a Giants player that barely jumped before the snap and Washington got a second try that they hit for the win.

The loss of Ryan Fitzpatrick might sink this Washington team, but they have a few other problems that we'll talk about too. The Giants just aren't a very good team. They certainly tried here but couldn't even manage to close out the game against a failing Washington with a backup QB. Sad. It's another 5-6 win season coming for New York. Washington might not be a whole lot better.

--Fantasy Notes

Don't start worrying about Antonio Gibson (13-69-0, 2-4-0/2) just yet. He looks fine as a talent/runner. It's just that this offensive line isn't great and the Giants have a pretty good run defense. He might have had a TD here but it happened to come during a 2-minute drill where JD McKissic (4-10-1, 5-83-0/6) is the preferred option. This is still Gibson's backfield. I'm not sure he's going to get the same TD count as last year now that Fitzpatrick is gone, but he should get a decent workload. He's a backend RB1 or high RB2 at worst.

McKissic had a nice line but he's much less a part of this offense than the past couple years. He's still the 2-minute guy, but his role outside of that is pretty much nil. Most of his yards came on Washington's second to last drive in a hurry-up situation where he got matched up with a LB and got open for 56 down the right sideline. He's a spot-filler RB3 at best.

You know who is a really, really good player that rarely gets mentioned as one of the top players at his position? Terry McLaurin (11-107-1/14). I've been beating the drum for this guy since last year and I'm not going to stop. He's right up there with Allen Robinson as guys that have had to play with some crap QB's and yet they still manage to produce. I'd love to see what he could do with Fitzpatrick. You're not going to be able to count on him like this every week because Taylor Heinicke (34-46 for 336 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) is limited, but he's the #1 target by a large margin.

Speaking of Heinicke, he's not a bad backup by any means, but I am concerned about this offense against better defenses. I thought he looked worse than he did at the end of 2020, lots of one read and fire type passes. The Bills are up next and that defense is not going to suffer this type of weak passing game.

Heinicke's next look in the passing game is Logan Thomas (5-45-0/7) and Thomas, like McLaurin, looks fantastic. He has really built himself into one of the best TE's in the game. Why did you have to get hurt Fitz, why? Thomas will have his moments, but Heinicke is going to hold him back from getting into the top rung of TE's for fantasy. Unfortunately we're looking at a middle of the pack TE1, which is fine but not the top 3 guy we were hoping for.

Out of all the talented pass catchers Washington has accumulated over the past couple years it is Adam Humphries (7-44-0/8) that has ascended to the #2 WR position. He's the safe, slot option that every team has finally started using. You'll get moments of WR3 work with him.

After those three we're left with the underwhelming Dyami Brown (3-34-0/6). He just sucks so bad I can't believe he's a part of an NFL offense. He'll probably stick around for 2 more years like a Mecole Hardman before the team finally gives up on ever making anything out of him.

One guy that RC and I have made fun of an awful lot is Daniel Jones (22-32 for 249 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 9-95-1) and for good reason. He's a limited QB and probably not going to last much longer as a starter. But...he looked ok here. Most QB's can when they are given this much time to throw. We'll talk about Washington's defense in a minute, but Jones took what was given to him. It was a nice fantasy day but one he's not going to replicate often. He always has an ok floor because he's a sneaky rusher, but he isn't getting 90 yards and a TD every week Lamar Jackson style. He might next week against a bad Atlanta defense though.

Do we have a Saquon Barkley (13-57-0, 2-12-0/3) problem? I'm going to disagree with RC here and say no. He looked just fine to me and the offensive line is playing better than the past couple years. They still aren't great and Barkley still doesn't have great instincts so he gets stuffed for a lot of short runs, but he looks just as explosive as ever and will usually pop a couple of long runs to save his day. So long as his volume continues to increase as they get him closer to 100% I think he's going to be just fine. The Falcons are a lovely spot for him to return to normal next week.

Seems like Sterling Shepard (9-94-0/10) is working well as a safe slot option for Jones. Expect those numbers to come back down to earth as the season wears on and teams adjust. He's good and a nice WR2 play most weeks.

Kenny Golladay (3-38-0/8) was seen visibly angry and yelling at Jones on the sideline. Hard to blame him since Jones struggles hitting anything that's not a short checkdown. He's getting looks but this just isn't a good offensive fit for him in my opinion. Golladay needs a QB with a strong arm that can hit him down the field in 1-on-1 coverage. That's not Jones's forte. I don't think this situation is going to get much better, but since Golladay threw a huge fit here and the team is paying him tons of money I wouldn't be surprised to see him get 12+ targets next week against the Falcons.

Darius Slayton (3-54-1/6) is yet another underrated WR being wasted by Jones. He's such a good downfield threat. Not to beat a dead horse but Jones just doesn't do those types of passes well. If this team gets a decent QB in here next year this offense has some really dangerous pieces, especially if they can ever get Evan Engram healthy.

Want to know the best, most secret, greatest receiver ever on this team? Well it sure as hell isn't Kadarius Toney no matter what Gettleman and Urban Meyer think. The fact that those two bums both wanted him is all I need to know to stay far, far away from Toney. What a complete joke. He was a ghost here and I don't see that changing anytime soon. I won't be the least bit surprised if he's out of football in two years.

--IDP Notes

Ok, so what's going on with Washington's defense? RC already covered this in some detail, but it's obvious that they aren't the suffocating unit we suspected they might be. They did give up 26 points here (3 came from a FG on a short field after a Heinicke INT) but it was only 2 TD's. The Giants were driving pretty well all game but Washington usually flexed up and stopped them short for a FG, a couple of them quite long.

They don't look bad per se and it's hard to really put my finger on what the issue is. I think RC might be correct that the root of the problem falls at the feet of Chase Young (3 tackles, 1 tfl). He just doesn't seem to be getting the type of pressure you would expect from someone of his talent and pedigree. I watched him closely all game and he was mostly getting handled by Nate Solder. There were moments where he won but it was usually against the run. When he was rushing the QB though, Solder was able to just carry him past the play or else he was stonewalled at the line after another player helped chip him. I didn't see any great moves or the explosive athleticism and his effort seemed to be rather low if he didn't immediately win. I fear that means we are indeed getting the Jadeveon Clowney treatment again as RC theorized.

The other problem I think I see is that the team seemed to be dropping Montez Sweat (3 tackles, 1 sack) into coverage an awful lot. I might be mistaken about that but it sure seemed to be happening a lot. Sweat already rotates out of the game far too often for my tastes, so if he's not getting high pressure due to his role and Young isn't getting pressure because he's a diva, then that just leaves the DT's (who are great) to try and disrupt the QB. Allen and Payne are very good players, but it's much harder to get consistent disruption from inside.

If Washington isn't getting the same type of heavy pressure we saw last year then it's going to cause problems no matter how good the rest of the defense is. There is hope however that they get this issue figured out. If they do this defense could easily come roaring back. You can't play them against Buffalo next week, that's for sure. I'll be watching for signs that they are getting back to normal and perhaps we can grab them ahead of a turn, possibly after the schedule eases up the second half of the year.

I don't think I need to mention that Blake Martinez (12 tackles) is one of the best run defenders and best IDP LB's in the league, so I won't.

Kendall Fuller (8 tackles, 1 sack, 1 pd) had a great fantasy game covering Shepard in the slot. He won't have tackle counts like this most weeks though. It was purely because Jones was taking the short safe throws all day.

James Bradberry (7 tackles, 1 pd) went toe-to-toe with McLaurin, won a few and lost a few. He gave up a TD but also jumped a Heinicke pass late and picked it off which ended with a Giants FG that temporarily gave them the lead. He's still a very good corner and I wouldn't expect him to get beaten quite so much most weeks. Calvin Ridley could be in for another long day next week.

Jonathan Allen (6 tackles, 2 sacks) had himself a day inside. He's one of the better DT's in the league right now but probably not the very best. It helps when you're facing a QB that holds the ball when his first safe read is taken away.

Cole Holcomb (6 tackles) looks as good as ever. His fantasy numbers will go back up when he faces more run-heavy teams. Not a good matchup for tackles next week against the Bills.

Next to Paulson Adebo, the rookie corner I've been most impressed with is Benjamin St. Juste (3 tackles, 1 pd). He's really jumped right into the starting lineup and held his own. Nice solid find by Washington in the 3rd round.

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--Snap Counts of Interest

71 = Logan Thomas

71 = Terry McLaurin

62 = Dyami Brown

50 = Adam Humphries

43 = Antonio Gibson

31 = JD McKissic

64 = Sterling Shepard

58 = Kenny Golladay

39 = Darius Slayton

19 = Kadarius Toney

58 = Saquon Barkley