R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2021

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2021

R.C. Fischer

FFM

26 December 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Titans 46, Lions 25 (Short Report)

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.

GAME ANALYSIS:

As you might expect… The Lions never led in this game. Titans up 7-0 quickly and led 24-15 at the half. A few minutes into the 4th-quarter the Titans took a 21-point lead. The Lions played with good effort all game…they just couldn’t hang with Tennessee.

The Titans are (10-4)…a game away from falling to a #6-7 seed or a game away from rising up to a #2 seed. Bad time for Tennessee to play the Packers in Green Bay in cold weather. The odds are that Tennessee ends up (11-5), wins the AFC South on a tiebreaker over (11-5) Indy and the Titans wind up a #4 seed…but all the extremes on outcome are still very much in play.

Detroit falls to (5-7) and the new GM and coaching search is in full effect.

WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?

 -- Marvin Jones (10-112-1/12) seasonal splits…

2.8 rec., 29.4 yards, 0.20 TDs per game = Jones Weeks 1-5 (as I dropped him everywhere)

Since then…

5.3 rec., 63.3 yards, 0.60 TDs per game = Jones Weeks 6-15 (the #18 WR in all of FF PPR)

Since Week 8, he is the #11 WR in PPR.

I don’t look so stupid for pushing this so hard in the preseason now, huh?

Doesn’t matter, I dropped him everywhere and got him back almost nowhere. Thanks for nothing you stupid idiot. Made me look stupid anyway.

Since Week 8 (PPR PPG scoring)…Marvin is #11, Curtis Samuel is #14, and Diontae is #16. I wasn’t that crazy in the preseason, was I?

 -- D’Andre Swift (15-67-2, 4-15-0/5) is getting RB1 touches/work since being named the starter. Why isn’t he ranked higher for Week 16? Facing Tampa Bay is the issue. The Bucs run defense is #1 with a bullet in yards per game allowed (77.8)…#1 in yards per carry allowed (3.4)…and #2t for rushing TDs allowed (9) this season.

 -- This season, Ryan Tannehill (21-27 for 273 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) is the #9 PPG (4pts TD) in fantasy…another QB1 finish for Tannehill…back-to-back seasons.

I’d like to get more excited about Week 16 at GB…but that weather forecast has me spooked.

 -- Jonnu Smith (5-52-0/6) had his first 5 catch game since Week 5 here…and his first 50+ yard game since Week 3. Nice spike, but I don’t know how you can buy it/trust it for Week 16.

ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):

 -- TEN rookie RB Darrynton Evans (8-30-0, 2-27-1/2) got a good run at the end of the game here. I think he came in for some relief snaps but looked so quick/confident they just let him go the whole drive he came in on.

A healthy Darrynton is probably in line to be the main #2 back in 2021…not D’Onta Foreman. Evans always looks like Miles Sanders (as a player) to me, going back to his college scouting.

IDP/DST NOTES:

 -- TEN LB David Long (12 tackles, 0.5 TFLs, 1 PD) had his best game of 2020. Second week in-a-row where he played 98%+ of the snaps. Third game in a row as a starter.

SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:

43 = D Henry

13 = Darr Evans

08 = McNichols

63 = Jonnu

38 = Pruitt

17 = Firkser

42 = D Swift

16 = AP

07 = Kerryon

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 December 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Bucs 31, Falcons 27 (Short Report)

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.

GAME ANALYSIS:

I have no idea how the Falcons keep losing these types of game. Atlanta led 17-0 at halftime, and I thought Bruce Arians might bench his entire team…it was a total beatdown. The Bucs then score 31 points in the 2nd-half, pull into the lead late and take it home in the end with another ‘they (the Bucs) look terrible’ win.

The Bucs should’ve lost their last two games – they were very lucky/played poorly against MIN and ATL. Had they lost those games -- it would’ve been four losses in-a-row. This Bucs team is not getting better as they go – they are getting worse, and it’s being glossed over by their lucky/sloppy wins the last two weeks. Tampa (9-5) should win out vs. DET and ATL, but I don’t know if they’re capable of winning one or both. One more win would lock down a playoff spot.

Again, the Bucs look terrible…but you know who I would not want to play in the playoffs – the Bucs. This team is scary when they put things together on both sides of the ball at the same time.

Atlanta is now (4-10), losers of four of their last 5 games. They are ensuring Raheem Morris will not be their next head coach. At KC and at TB the last two weeks means the Falcons likely finish (4-12).

WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?

 -- Look, Matt Ryan (34-49 for 356 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) has been hot garbage for several weeks before this game…and then he comes out and destroys the Bucs pass defense. I’m telling you: (a) this Tampa team really sucks right now, especially on defense. (2) This forebodes well for Matt Stafford Week 16 in the dome vs. Tampa.

 -- Leonard Fournette (14-49-2, 3-16-0/5) looked terrible again for Tampa Bay too. He got very lucky that the Bucs hit longer passes that got guys tackled at the 1-yard line to set up the two short TD opportunities. Without the short TDs, this would have been a mess and you wouldn’t want to start him Week 16.

However, TB always gets down to the 1-yard line somehow in games and Fournette could cash in lucky again…and facing Detroit is a safe matchup for sure.

 -- The Falcons have named Ito Smith (6-24-0, 2-9-0) the official lead back, according to Raheem Morris. Two things about this…

1) He looks good. He looks spry and is giving a good effort. I wouldn’t hate on him. He’s not the worst. Not the greatest, but not terrible.

2) Facing the Chiefs this upcoming game – most opposing teams try to run to keep Mahomes off the field. If that happens Week 16 ATL at KC…Ito could/should see 12+ carries and a few targets. He might be a shock RB1 if he can find the end zone once.

 -- Antonio Brown PPR PPG since debuting for TB Week 9 = 6-14-14-3-10-20. It’s not terrible, despite playing about half a game only rotating in and out with the game flow. Not the worst WR3/Flex -- if you had to go there Week 16…vs. DET…indoors.

In that same span (since Week 9), the PPR points for Chris Godwin (4-54-0/4) in games = 7-15-18-18-5-14. Pretty stable/solid. WR1.5 work mostly.

  -- Rob Gronkowski (3-29-0/4) PPR points in games since Week 9, as well = 1-13-5-17-7-6. Trending downward but still some spike TE1 games in there.

 -- Russell Gage (5-68-1/10) vs. Chris Godwin vs. Antonio Brown in PPR points in a game since (starting with) Week 11:

14-14-03-10-20 = AB (12.2 PPR PPG)

15-18-18-05-14 = Godwin (14.0 PPR PPG)

13-06-15-19-18 = Gage (14.2 PPR PPG)

 -- Hayden Hurst (4-21-1/5) has been single digit PPR points in a game scoring for several weeks before this game, a TD boosting him here to break the streak. I don’t think he’s a real TE1 option for Week 16 because of this TD event. I just don’t see any urgency to make him part of the offense.

ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):

 -- Ke’Shawn Vaughn (2-4-0, 0-0-0/1) entered the game midway into the 1st-half beating and had a shot to maybe steal the touches the rest of the way had he gotten hot. Instead, he dropped an easy throw on his first play. His third touch of his one series, he tripped over his own feet for a 0-yard run. He quickly came out of the game and I’m not sure I saw him in after that.

Vaughn will be the 3rd-down back and handcuff to Ronald Jones in 2021 if Arians is there. If Brady is running the team, it will be James White in Tampa with Jones.

IDP/DST NOTES:

 -- Carlton Davis (9 tackles, 1 PD) is the Bucs best cover corner, but he’s gone from dominating the 1st-half of the season to getting wrecked by opposing WRs since Week 9…something happened/he got hurt…I’m not sure what happened.

As Davis has fallen the TB pass defense has been blown up.

Davis is actually hurt/now out Week 16…opening the door wider for Marvin Jones.

SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:

31 = Ito Smith

16 = Gurley

15 = Br Hill

45 = Fournette

12 = McCoy

10 = K Vaughn

60 = Godwin

55 = Mk Evans

32 = A Brown

13 = Sc Miller

11 = Tyler Johnson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 December 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Dolphins 22, Patriots 12 (Short Report)

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.

GAME ANALYSIS:

A complete and utter embarrassment for the Patriots. One of the worst efforts by a team in a game all Week 15. When the Rams and Steelers were losing to the Jets and Bengals, there was at least a panic and effort to get back into it by the falling down/losing teams – they just got outplayed. The Patriots didn’t get outplayed, talent-wise, they just moped around the field and watched Miami take the lead in the 2nd-half (after no points scored by MIA 1st-half…because the Dolphins offense sucks) and the Patriots didn’t care or react or make much effort to regain the lead in the 4th-quarter. The moment Stephon Gilmore went down, this entire game turned. Miami was trying to give them this game and the Patriots wouldn’t take it.

New England falls out of the playoffs, and good riddance. This 2020 unit showed what Cam Newton as your lead QB does to a team – fills them with ‘shoulder shrugs’ because they know they aren’t that good, and Cam isn’t leading them back from a deficit. Belichick took this group as far as he could – but Bill is also to blame for assembling this roster.

Miami’s charmed existence continues…they’ve beaten the Jets, Bengals, Patriots their last three wins…three of the worst offenses in football. Miami is (9-5) and needs one more win to have real playoff hope, and the charmed life continues Week 16 facing the Raiders. BUT the Raiders have a shred of playoff hope if they upset Miami and the Ravens lose to NYG (very possible). If Miami gets upset by the Raiders, then the Dolphins are probably not making the playoffs considering a Week 17 game in Buffalo.

WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?

 -- Another week of 3-yard throws for Tua Tagovailoa (20-26 for 145 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT, 3-9-2)…another week where the defense has no idea how to defend it.

I know Belichick is a genius and all but dropping guys back into a soft middle-deep zone as Tua keeps throwing short passes…it’s like giving Miami free run plays in the form of short dink passes.

Instead of making Tua pocket passer downfield, the Patriots drifted backwards at the snap and defended from 10-20 yards out as Tua threw a bunch of 3-yard passes off a rollout. Tua struggles when he is in the pocket or when the field is shortened/the defense has to play up close…so his pick thrown was in the end zone -- and he rushed for two TDs (luckily) because he can’t play the same 3-yard rollout pass play near the goal line, passing is an issue because all the defenders are up close because there is nowhere else to go. So, in a panic he ran one in and later QB sneaked one.

But since NFL coaches can’t figure these basic things out, working 120 hours a week and sleeping in their offices because they’re studying so much, I’m sure Tua will complete 80%+ of his passes against the Raiders next week as they drift into Cover-Two defending the bomb as Miami eats them alive with short, safe passes.

Miami had a near 38/22 time of possession advantage in this game – an utter embarrassment of lack of effort by the Patriots. Tua’s free short passes all game helped keep the clock moving. Perhaps there is genius in the simplicity.

 -- The fact that UDFA rookie Salvon Ahmed (23-122-1, 1-5-0/3), a guy who was cut by SF and put on the practice squad and then picked up by Miami and then being thrust into emergency touches/starting a few weeks ago, could come off being injured and missing a few games and he just walk in to this game and rushes for 100+ yards in a huge game on an offense that plays everything within five yards of the line of scrimmage – it tells you how disinterested the Patriots were in playing this game. They couldn’t stop the Miami run game at all…and it’s not that great a run game.

Myles Gaskin will be back this week. Flores will likely give him the lead role right back. It will probably be a 75/25 Gaskin-Ahmed touches Week 16, but 50/50 could happen if Ahmed gets hot.

 -- Lynn Bowden (6-37-0/7) is going to keep having these same games with Parker-Grant out. He fits the Tua short game…a good amount of catches for little yards because Bowden has shown nothing after the catch or on any running plays this season. He’s not a player of the future, but you could get 6-50-0 next week for PPR if Parker-Grant are out again.

 -- Durham Smythe (5-40-0/5) won the ‘Gesicki is out and Tua craves throwing to the TE’ sweepstakes. Gesicki might be back this week, so that means Gesicki will go right back into his TE1 role…the downfield prayer throw for Tua, hoping the tall guy catches it over the shorter DBs.

ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):

 -- Sony Michel (10-74-0, 1-8-0/1) was one Patriot giving an effort…and he was effective, so it only makes sense for him to have just 10 carries (but Miami so dominated time of possession, and Cam HAD to get his rushing in to show off for a contract in free agency 2021).

Michel is fighting for his football future…and future crowded by the Patriots RBBC ways, and a more talented Damien Harris (DNP) on the roster. Michel and Harris are back next year, which means an RBBC involving those two…but likely not involving free agent James White.

When Patriots RBs can, they bail for money elsewhere…usually to a team run by recent Patriots’ coaches. So, White to Tennessee or NYG or Miami in the offseason is likely.

 -- Maybe they will develop more in 2021, but I have not seen anything in Devin Asiasi (0-0-0/1) or Dalton Keene (1-2-0/2) that would have my interest for FF at all.

 -- Jakobi Meyers (7-111-0/10) really looks promising as a pass catcher/nice route runner. My PPR-interest is piqued for FF 2021+, but I don’t know who the QB will be or the surrounding WR group to get more excited yet.

N’Keal Harry (1-12-0/2) has nearly fully died here in New England…making me wonder why supposed stud WRs aren’t ever developing with the Patriots? Only lowly drafted/undrafted underneath pass catchers rise up…never any outside, dominant ones.

Is Belichick picking the wrong players…or they can’t really develop them within their offense? I have no interest in Harry for FF until further notice.

IDP/DST NOTES:

 -- NE LB Terez Hall (13 tackles) has been playing solid IDP football. 7.6 tackles per game in the games he’s played more than 20% of the snaps in (6 games). He’s become a starter (this game). He’s getting numbers…but Miami also just ran for 250 yards on the Patriots, so my questions on Hall’s talent are valid – a 4.9 runner.

He’s giving 150% effort but may have 50% of the skills needed to be a legit NFL starter. But sometimes effort wins out in the end. I’m not that excited for his IDP future, but it’s working solidly of late for IDP use.

 -- Stephon Gilmore out the rest of the season is a boost for Buffalo’s offense Week 16. You’d think it great for Stefon Diggs…but note that Pats CB J.C. Jackson has held opposing WRs to 58.6% Comp. Pct. and QBs have just a 58.0 QB rating throwing at him this season. It’s not a gimme week for Diggs Week 16…as JCJ will probably shadow Diggs...but not 100%/all the time.

SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:

44 = Ahmed

18 = Breida

08 = Laird

43 = Shaheen

41 = Smythe

29 = Keene

27 = Asiasi

27 = White

23 = Michel

05 = JJ Taylor

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 December 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Chiefs 32, Saints 29 (Short Report)

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.

GAME ANALYSIS:

If I could only tell you one thing about this game, it would be the following, and with urgency I’d want to convey it: That was probably the single worst game of QB play that I have seen in 2020…from Drew Brees. And I’ve seen all of Tua’s and Dwayne Haskins’s starts. Maybe the Kendall Hinton COVID start for Denver was worse, but Hinton didn’t technically start that game.

Everyone who is bellyaching about Ben Roethlisberger being done/shot after this week’s games…Ben looked 10x better than Brees did. Was it the rib injury? I’m sure, but why did they force him back into action looking so terrible? Seriously, no joke, he should have thrown a minimum six interceptions in that game. I’ve never seen more passes land 5-10 yards short of their target in one game more than this one from Brees. Brees was throwing the football like they secretly put cement inside of it for all the Saints’ offensive series.

How anyone could bet on the Saints this week, laying -7.0 to Minnesota, with confidence…good luck. You’re about to see a Christmas turkey on live television unless Brees is magically 100% healed from his 132 broken ribs in the past week.

If I could tell you a second thing from this game, it would be that the Kansas City Chiefs cannot be the top team in the NFL. They are the sloppiest top team in the NFL…and I just watched the Rams and Steelers play this same week (well, maybe the Buccaneers should have that honor over the Chiefs). The Chiefs are talented but so arrogant – dropped picks on defense, missed tackles, a crap run game with CEH/Bell, the O-Line is a problem, and Mahomes throwing dangerous passes under duress. The Chiefs are secretly starting to corrupt/fade to the finish (from A+ to just A-/B+). They are the decade ago Green Bay Packers – hey, we got Aaron Rodgers so we can play like crap but win a lot of games…just not making multiple Super Bowl appearances as you think we would.

Drew Brees (speaking of good but never getting back to the Super Bowl for a decade+…4-6 record in the past 11 seasons in the playoffs since their Super Bowl win) almost went the 1st-half without completing a pass, and yet the score was only 14-9 KC at the half. The Saints, as piss poor as they played on offense…they took the lead 15-14 to open the 3rd-quarter. That’s when KC wakes up…when their sloppiness has them down, then they snap into some focus temporarily. KC took the lead back and went up by 14 to start the 4th-quarter…and then let the Saints right back in it…dead arm Brees and all. The Saints closed it to 32-29 but couldn’t get the ball back the final two minutes and they fell short.

The Chiefs are going to get the #1 seed, but I think someone is going to knock them off before they reach the Super Bowl…they might even lose in their first playoff game. They are just so sloppy/undisciplined/arrogant/filled with holes to expose (for a top team), but with Mahomes…anything is possible.

The Saints…they might get the #1 seed, but I don’t know how they can with Brees’s arm/mind in the shape it is in. The Brees I saw in this game is not going to win out…although they have MIN and CAR to the finish, no major tests – but I could see them losing both games. The Saints defense might carry them through, but still not a #1 seed (GB should get that).

WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?

 -- Clyde Edwards-Helaire is done for the regular season, so not-anything-like-he-used-to-be-no-matter-how-hard-KC-and-the-media-try-to-sell-us-on-it Le’Veon Bell (15-62-1, 1-14-0/1) is now the de facto starter the ROS.

It will be Bell, not Darrell Williams (3-5-0) because the Chiefs can cruise to the AFC #1 seed regardless of having any RB active at all. Beat the Falcons this week, done. So, the best thing KC could do is keep Le’Veon working and get him ready if he has to start in the 1st-round of the playoffs and beyond.

I expect Le’Veon to be the full starter but come off the field on 3rd-downs and two-minute drills…which says a lot about what they think of Bell anymore – they trust Darrell Williams more, like the Packers trust Jamaal Williams more than Aaron Jones to do dirty work.

Le’Veon starts with two conflicting ways to project him: (1) Nice matchup with dying Atlanta. (2) Has any Chiefs RB really exploded for FF this year outside of like 2 games? Even this game…Bell got a TD but I’m supposed to get excited about 15 carries for 62 yards and one target?

Bell is an RB2 with RB3 risk, but RB1 potential if he gets a TD. Before this game, KC RBs had 6 TDs in 13 games. They now have 7 TDs in 14 games…a 50-50 shot a KC RB will score a TD. It’s better than nothing.

 -- Did I mention how terrible Drew Brees (15-34 for 234 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) looked? But he had 3 TDs…am I using too much hyperbole?

Here were his three ‘passing TDs’…

1) Screen pass to Latavius Murray, and then Murray ran 24 yards for a TD.

2) That play that’s a pass but not really – a shotgun snap, QB quick dumps/pitches it to the man in motion in front of him play that counts as a ‘pass’…one of those to AK, who then ran 10+ yards and broke 10+ tackles to sneak in.

3) Final drive, desperation throw…a balloon to the end zone that was so off the mark the defender couldn’t adjust to it but the WR saw it early and adjusted and leapt up for the end zone grab. A 17-yard throw is now a Hail Mary for Brees.

The small ball game should be good for Alvin Kamara this week…in theory. The Saints have to adjust the game plan to the Brees issue, assuming it’s still an issue.

 -- I would think the glaring issue would also mean Taysom Hill (2-3-1, 0-0-0/2) is going to be at QB more, especially near the goal line…like exclusively in at the goal line. But he barely was involved here (10 snaps) as the Saints offense swirled down the drain…so, don’t assume it too hard.

ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):

 -- Lil’Jordan Humphrey (2-29-1/4) caught the TD pass/17-yard Hail Mary from Brees…it’s not a sign of good things for Week 16 or 2021+. It was just a one-off moment of luck/he happened to be on the field.

With Brees back in 2021, or switching to Taysom – Tre’Quan Smith, Lil’Jordan, Juwan Johnson (0-0-0/4) are all meaningless, as #2-3 WRs are in the Saints offense for years now.

IDP/DST NOTES:

 -- Saints DT Shy Tuttle (5 tackles, 1 PD) has 5.5 tackles per game the past two games as he has become a ‘starter’. He still only plays 50% of the snaps, but his numbers are creeping up of late if anyone plays deep IDP with DT as a specific spot to start someone.

 -- Trey Hendrickson (2 tackles, 2 sacks) didn’t make the Pro Bowl. I see him listed on Pro Bowl ‘snubs’ articles. I don’t know if he should’ve made it because I care about the Pro Bowl as much as the amount of times that I’ve watched A Christmas Story in the past 25 years…zero.

However, Hendrickson has 12.5 sacks and 24 QB hits this season…that’s pretty darn good!

SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:

40 = Kamara

16 = Latavius

32 = Cook

21 = Trautman

10 = Taysom

45 = CEH

31 = Bell

22 = D Williams

R.C. Fischer

FFM

24 December 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Browns 20, Giants 6 (Short Report)

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.

GAME ANALYSIS:

Without James Bradberry, the Giants defense and team started in a hole even before kickoff. The Browns are rolling on offense as Baker Mayfield is starting to turn into a top QB again. Baker was excellent and the Giants just don’t have the offensive firepower to hang with a very good Browns team.

The Giants actually drove down the red zone the first few drives of the game, but they went for fourth downs and couldn’t convert (it was smart strategy but they couldn’t make the plays when they needed it). A bunch of near misses early to stay in the game. The Giants took a 3-0 lead, and then the Browns scored the next 20 points and just put NYG to sleep.

The Giants may be permanently sleeping for the playoffs. Now (5-9) and they have to have a lot of help to get to the division title. If they win out, they do have a real shot. They’ll likely fall short at Baltimore and end it Week 16 – but I think they will cover the -10.0 and might even win that game if Daniel Jones is healthy.

Cleveland is the best team in the AFC North right now…they are (10-4) and a game behind the Steelers. They can still win the division…Week 17 hosting Pittsburgh is going to be quite the event. I think they might just pull this off. I hope they do.

WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?

— Considering this was a big game for both teams, but knowing NYG lost its 2020 MVP James Bradberry, it was still going to be a fight for Baker Mayfield (27-32 for 297 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) to put up numbers against a game NYG defense — but look at those numbers...88% Comp. Pct. with 297 yards and 2 TDs. A very clean game against a really good defense (albeit Bradberry out). 

This is another piece of evidence that Baker is coming alive as a top 10-15 NFL QB and rising. 

I expect it should keep up Week 16 vs the Jets...only the weather could slow him down, but it should be OK enough for numbers for Baker this week. 

Since Week 11, Baker is the #8 PPG scorer among QBs…ahead of Kyler and Herbert, among others.

 — Who is Baker throwing to? 

Jarvis Landry (7-61-1/8) is really coming on since Week 12. Just look at the turn that has occurred…

3.8 rec., 47.1 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = Landry Weeks 1-11

7.7 rec., 79.5 yards, 0.75 TDs per game PLUS a passing TD = Landry Weeks 12-15

Since Week 12, Landry is the #10 PPR PPG WR in fantasy. Before that he was a nobody WR4.

Rashard Higgins (4-76-0/5) has become a very solid #2 WR for Baker and WR2 threat in good matchups...like Wk16 v. the Jets. His last three games: 5.3 rec., 79.7 yards, 0.67 TDs per game.

 — Austin Hooper (5-41-1/6) is showing signs of a re-rising here. 

Weeks 1-3, it was tough sledding and people were dropping him.

Weeks 4-6 = 5.0 rec., 47.7 yards, 0.33 TDs per game…and things were starting to turn.

But then he had an emergency appendectomy, and he missed a few weeks and came back slowly. However, he has 2 TDs in his past 3 games and his best targeting since Week 6 here. Facing the Jets Week 16 has to be an opportunity.

 — This was not the Wayne Gallman (9-29-0, 0-0-0/3) any of us were hoping for. Alfred Morris (7-39-0/4) nearly had as many carries. As the Giants’ offense sinks with Colt McCoy, the run game is getting pinched. Daniel Jones back (if) might help but he’s limited in his escapability/running threat -- so teams can focus on the RBs instead.

Devonta Freeman returning from IR (maybe) is hovering over Gallman as well. 

I don’t like the feel of, or the focus on Gallman by defenses lately. I’m FF-worried about him for Week 16 at BAL.

 — This NYG passing game is so bad, so how can you have a ton of faith in ultra-athletic, capable of huge FF games Evan Engram (4-46-0/7) ? I think I have more enthusiasm with Hooper with Baker than Engram with McCoy/Jones. 

Engram has ‘hope’ any week. He had an end zone shot or two here but couldn’t connect. That’s the problem…not Engram, it’s the QBs. 

ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):

 — As Baker rises...and as OBJ has been gone...rookie WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (3-55-0/3) is starting to show signs of something…2.7 rec., 73.7 yards, 0.33 TDs per game the last 3 weeks.

He’s a very solid, talented WR prospect...his draft hopes a bit buried by a weak passing game offense in college. He’s starting to make some noticeable plays with Baker as the season rolls on. 

He’s still just #3 option among the Browns WRs. He’s not a #1 WR type future star but a very solid #2-3 option who can block and make tough catches. 

DPJ has upside but it may take another season to start scratching that surface. Probably a better NFL WR than FF one, but there’s hope here that he grows with Baker and rises with him.

IDP/DST NOTES:

 -- The Giants defense couldn’t hang as well without James Bradberry. He should be back this week, and if so -- he’ll make a massive difference vs. the Ravens. The Ravens offense is not a favorable matchup for the NYG-DST…but it may not be as bad as we think. I believe the NYG defense is one of the five best in football at full strength.

 -- You see what the Browns-DST did to the Giants here. Getting Denzel Ward back just makes this defense solid. Facing the Jets this week with Ward getting full health – gotta love them again this week.  

SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:

23 = Gallman

18 = D Lewis

13 = Morris

38 = Chubb

21 = Hunt

45 = Hooper

31 = Njoku

30 = H Bryant

***************************************************

College Football Metrics (CFM) 2021 subscriptions will be available for early sign up late December 2020/early January 2021.

It’s going to be a scouting NFL Draft season like no other – some top prospects opting out of their final college season, a unique schedule for CFB teams to have played, a different type of bowl season…a whole new backdrop to scout against. An experienced, talented scouting eye is going to rule. I have 10+ years of successful CFM scouting and analytics to lean on – I’m ready for the challenge.

I know the mainstream football analysis is going to butcher this year’s class even worse than normal – because they are going to blindly favor big school prospects more than ever, because those schools will have the only names they are truly familiar with, and it’s just the ‘name’ they are familiar with not their ‘game’. They’ll hive mind run with whatever names the collective seems to be buzzing about – because they don’t put in the work, they just echo things they’ve heard. I’m not saying that to be a jerk – it’s the open window of opportunity (their failure) that I was able to build my career/business upon.

I spend many hours each offseason day/week/month researching the current class of top 100+ prospects individually as well as all the smaller school and ‘lesser named’ prospects our computer models start to identify. I study and compare prospect’s tape, and I input the performance data (weighted with our secret, proprietary scouting formulas) to get a firsthand feel for it so I can analyze and test/challenge all our analytics. I get to know these prospects on the field, statistically, and do character background research as well -- so I can boil it down to reports so my private clients and subscribers (from serious fantasy players, to professional handicappers, to agents, to NFL war room personnel) can know these prospects by description and statistically – for NFL purposes, for Dynasty Rookie Draft purposes, for Fantasy Best Ball/Redraft purposes in the preseason, and for handicapping and prop betting purposes.

If you love Fantasy Football, if you love the NFL Draft process – I guarantee you’ll never look at the process the same way again with a CFM subscription.

As the regular season football ends, a whole new season of football discovery begins with our ‘CFM’ subscription and study or current and past rookies (offense and defense) – and material flows daily all offseason January to September (NFL season start), leading us to using the material to our advantage for the NFL regular season.

Go to our College Football Metrics or Fantasy Football Metrics subscription pages for more information. The new season sign up information will begin posting in the second half of December 2020.

***************************************************

R.C. Fischer

FFM

24 December 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Cowboys 41, 49ers 33 (Short Report)

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.

GAME ANALYSIS:

A sloppy game between two teams clinging to playoff hopes coming in, and Dallas rides a wave of non-Zeke-playing-exuberance/effectiveness on offense and pulls out a 41-33 win. It was really Dallas’s game all along. The Cowboys never trailed, and when the 49ers scrambled back into it late…Dallas returned an onside kick to go up by 14…but then the 49ers hit a Hail Mary on the final play to make it an 8-point margin. Dallas just felt like they had this game all along and they got the win.

Dallas (5-9) can still win the NFC East. If they defeat the Eagles Week 16 and Washington and NYG loses…suddenly the Cowboys could be a Week 17 win over the Giants away from a shocking NFC East win. I don’t think they can win both of the next two games – they’re not better than PHI or NYG right now. I think they’ll fall short.   

The 49ers are also (5-9), but they are not in the NFC East…so, their playoffs hopes are long gone. What might have been if not for all the injuries. They’ll be a playoff team in 2021, assuming they’re not crushed with injury again…and how high they go depends upon who their QB is – and I do not believe it will be Jimmy Garoppolo.

WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?

 -- Tony Pollard (12-69-2, 6-63-0/9) made the most of his spot start…turning in the most energized RB performance by a Dallas RB in about two seasons.

A few things to consider about this situation on Pollard…and Zeke…

1) This is a bad Dallas O-Line. There’s trouble with it/running behind it. Sure, Pollard had an awesome FF week…but he didn’t necessarily make you forget Zeke as a runner.

Pollards popped that 40 yarder early, but in his other 11 carries, 29 yards rushing…not good. Not Pollard’s fault, it’s the O-Line (the same issue Miles Sanders and James Conner and David Johnson, among others have had this season).

Pollard would feel like a slam dunk FF start if Zeke is out again Week 16, but it’s not an automatic RB1 event – but the projections will be hopeful it is, but it’s not a given because of the Dallas O-Line.

2) Pollard is a WEAPON in the passing game, and thus they threw him 9 targets and he had a great receiving game. Why aren’t they using Pollard somewhat like this WITH Zeke playing…a pass game weapon? Pollard had 9 targets in this game…he’s had 9 targets total in his last 6 games – and he’s played like 33% of the snaps during it. Why not design more pass game plays for him...like 4-5 of them in the rotation with Elliott playing?

Why…that would require logic…why should we expect the Dallas coaches to know Pollard was a receiving back ace in college and is truly gifted that way? Gotta make Zeke twist his hand and wrist in a circle repetitively even more, I guess.

3) Will Pollard move in on taking over for Zeke in 2021?

Absolutely not. There is no way, unless Ezekiel Elliott dies and they cannot find the body in order to try and still play/feature the corpse of Zeke.

 -- Will Jeff Wilson (16-60-1, 0-0-0/4) get all the gold this week with Raheem Mostert out? I wouldn’t bet heavy on that thought.

The 49ers have not leaned on one RB in a game all year except one (when three RBs went down in a week and they had to). They run an RB rotation/duo…no matter who that duo is. So, in Week 16 it will be Jeff Wilson as the lead but still getting his 12-15 carries and 1-2 catches with Jerick McKinnon (2-22-0/2) playing a split role and Tevin Coleman (3-11-0) taking carries as well…maybe even 7-10 carries for Tevin. If he gets hot…maybe more/cutting into Wilson.

 -- C.J. Beathard (5-7 for 100 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is mistake-prone but he’s also more physically talented than Nick Mullens, and CJB is a swashbuckler…he will push the passing game and throw downfield. He’s the opposite of Mullens. Beathard will go on the attack…and that might be good or it might be multiple picks thrown.

Beathard can also run the ball well, so he adds that risk/wrinkle for the defense.

Beathard might be a top 10 QB this week…or bottom 5. He’s a boom-bust player.

ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):

 -- Who is going to the starting RB for the 49ers in 2021?

1) Kyle Shanahan does not believe in a one back system. It will be a duo+ rotation.

2) Coleman and McKinnon are free agents. Hasty and Wilson are restricted free agents. Contractually, it will be Mostert-Wilson-Hasty. Mostert (approaching 30 years old by season end 2021) and Wilson splitting is the most likely outlook, unless the 49ers sign or draft a big name into the mix. They likely won’t…not in this era of RB economics, but RBs may be so cheap and plentiful that they get an interesting name and jumble up the rotation and let Mostert go.

IDP/DST NOTES:

 -- CBs Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown were back healthy for Dallas, and it didn’t lead to any great showing here by the Dallas defense, per se. Dallas is obviously better with Diggs and Brown. They squashed Nick Mullens here and gave up garbage time to Beathard.

The suddenly re-deep Dallas secondary is a bit of a hit to the Jalen hurts upside, in theory.

SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:

52 = Pollard

08 = Dowdle

39 = J Wilson

25 = Mostert

06 = Coleman

2021 Dynasty Offseason Material Coming Soon…

As the 2020 season ends, the 2021 Dynasty offseason becomes a focus along with the incoming rookie class scouting.

We’re coming back with our offseason program in January:

 -- Dynasty top 500 offensive player and top 300 IDP player valuations/rankings (updated weekly). First report for 2021 posts after the Super Bowl is booked.

 -- Special reports all offseason…on players, strategies, buy low/sell high, inside information I get from sources (which saved us in 2019 with the Tyreek scare).

 -- Some new items we will debut this season.

Sign-ups begin in January and the material starts to flow early-January through to August (the entire offseason). 

R.C. Fischer

FFM

23 December 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Bears 33, Vikings 27 (Short Report)

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.

GAME ANALYSIS:

The Bears got up two scores midway in the 2nd-quarter, 17-7…and then up 20-7 before the Vikings cut it to 20-10 at the half. The Vikings would then score in the 2nd-half, cut it to a one score game and then the Bears would respond to go back up two scores…and back-and-forth it went between a two and one-score game with Minnesota closing it to one score late and had a few drives to take the lead, including the last drive of the game…they could just never get over the hump. The Vikings never led in this game. Chicago was the better, more determined team…looking like they were having fun while Minnesota played uptight and blew their playoff chances (most likely) with a tough loss at home.

Minnesota is now (6-8) and would need a perfect storm to get to the last wild card spot. They project to (7-9) and have a lot of questions to confront for 2021…which means they’ll just stick with their current core group and coaches.

The Bears (7-7) get the clutch win to stay alive and ahead of Minnesota (6-8) but chasing Arizona (8-6) for the final wild card spot. The Bears can get over/into the playoffs with a tiebreaker if they end up with identical records but that likely means the Bears must win out and Arizona must lose at least a game. It’s possible because Chicago has Jacksonville Week 16, and then facing Green Bay…who may have nothing to play for Week 17, potentially. We see the Bears stumbling to the finish and going (8-8) and just missing out on the playoffs.

Not much at all here for FF purposes from this game…

WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?

 -- The TEs of FF-note in this game created more confusion/doubt than offered real solutions ahead…

Everyone liked the recent trend on Cole Kmet (2-12-0/2)…and he caught the first pass of the game, and then had one other target the other 59 minutes of play. How can you trust him Week 16…except he faces Jacksonville?

Irv Smith (3-37-0/4) didn’t do much for FF. He did drop a TD pass right in his hands. How can you trust him? He hasn’t cashed in on his opportunity with Kyle Rudolph out.

The reason why Irv has not cashed in…Tyler Conklin (3-57-1/4) looks better than Smith right now. Conklin had some great catch and run moments in this game. Two weeks in a row, Conklin has looked better than Smith (to me).

 -- We’re all starting Allen Robinson (4-83-0/5) if we have him, but just note…ARob going back to face his original team Week 16 (JAX), where he was a bit slighted in the end of his run there. There’s always something to ‘revenge’ games on ex-teams who did you wrong. Just saying.

 -- David Montgomery (32-146-2, 1-16-0/2) is on fire and I would not doubt it keeping up again this week.

 -- Mitch Trubisky (15-21 for 202 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 8-34-0) had a weak FF game, but played a solid NFL game. You can see Mitch’s confidence growing and he even ran with some purpose in this game. Facing the Jags Week 16 is a great matchup for him.

ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):

 -- Darnell Mooney (4-49-1/5, 1-16-0) has all the makings of a future star. I know I keep saying that, but I do so to make a point. I see the ‘it’ here.

Who the coach and QB are in 2021 will determine how excited to get about it this offseason in Dynasty.

They are using Mooney like they should have all along in the past 2-3 weeks – bubble screens, jet sweeps. A TD in each of his last two games. A jet sweep in each of his last two games.

IDP/DST NOTES:

 -- Chicago was missing two starting CBs in this game, and still pulled it off against the solid offense of the Vikings. Solid matchup against Jacksonville this week…but we’ll see if they get either or both of those CBs back.

I’m still skittish of going too hard against Gardner Minshew…he is sneaky good on a bad team, and he never quits/can do garbage time. But you have to at least like the Bears-DST this week…especially if they draw Mike Glennon.

 -- 5th-round rookie CB Kindle Vildor (5 tackles) had his most playing time of 2020 for Chicago…5 tackles in 44% of the snaps played. Not bad for IDP, but he got beat bad on coverage…allowed 83.3% Comp. Pct. against him here and a TD.

SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:

56 = Irv Smith

45 = Conklin

57 = ARob

53 = Mooney

21 = Wims

16 = A Miller

***************************************************

College Football Metrics (CFM) 2021 subscriptions will be available for early sign up late December 2020/early January 2021.

It’s going to be a scouting NFL Draft season like no other – some top prospects opting out of their final college season, a unique schedule for CFB teams to have played, a different type of bowl season…a whole new backdrop to scout against. An experienced, talented scouting eye is going to rule. I have 10+ years of successful CFM scouting and analytics to lean on – I’m ready for the challenge.

I know the mainstream football analysis is going to butcher this year’s class even worse than normal – because they are going to blindly favor big school prospects more than ever, because those schools will have the only names they are truly familiar with, and it’s just the ‘name’ they are familiar with not their ‘game’. They’ll hive mind run with whatever names the collective seems to be buzzing about – because they don’t put in the work, they just echo things they’ve heard. I’m not saying that to be a jerk – it’s the open window of opportunity (their failure) that I was able to build my career/business upon.

I spend many hours each offseason day/week/month researching the current class of top 100+ prospects individually as well as all the smaller school and ‘lesser named’ prospects our computer models start to identify. I study and compare prospect’s tape, and I input the performance data (weighted with our secret, proprietary scouting formulas) to get a firsthand feel for it so I can analyze and test/challenge all our analytics. I get to know these prospects on the field, statistically, and do character background research as well -- so I can boil it down to reports so my private clients and subscribers (from serious fantasy players, to professional handicappers, to agents, to NFL war room personnel) can know these prospects by description and statistically – for NFL purposes, for Dynasty Rookie Draft purposes, for Fantasy Best Ball/Redraft purposes in the preseason, and for handicapping and prop betting purposes.

If you love Fantasy Football, if you love the NFL Draft process – I guarantee you’ll never look at the process the same way again with a CFM subscription.

As the regular season football ends, a whole new season of football discovery begins with our ‘CFM’ subscription and study or current and past rookies (offense and defense) – and material flows daily all offseason January to September (NFL season start), leading us to using the material to our advantage for the NFL regular season.

Go to our College Football Metrics or Fantasy Football Metrics subscription pages for more information. The new season sign up information will begin posting in the second half of December 2020.

***************************************************

R.C. Fischer

FFM

23 December 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Cardinals 33, Eagles 26

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

So much to unpack from this game. So much to FFM-celebrate, but let’s look at the game and then get into the players – because this was one of the most entertaining games of 2020.

It didn’t start out very entertaining…for Philly. An early safety on a sack of Jalen Hurts. The ensuing drive for Arizona – a Kyler TD scamper…9-0 Arizona. Then Arizona blocked a punt on Philly’s next possession, deep in Eagles territory…leading to a quick TD and a 16-0 Arizona lead 13 minutes into the game.

Philadelphia won the rest of the game, from that point, 26-17…but that wasn’t good enough to win the game in total.

Jalen Hurts stormed the Eagles back in this one…three TD passes in the 2nd-quarter to draw the halftime lead down to 6 points (26-20 Arizona).

Hurts actually tied this game at the end of the 3rd-quarter…26-26. A defensive struggle broke out in the 2nd-half, after an offensive explosion in the 1st-half (46 points in the 1st-half combined, just 13 points combined 2nd-half.

Arizona scored the final TD of the game…the game winner with 7+ minutes left. The Cardinals defense held off Philly on two drives from there including a couple late shots at the end zone to get the hard-fought win.

Arizona gets a quality win here and goes to (8-6). They hold a one game lead over (7-7) Chicago, but the Bears have the Jags next week and should get to (8-7), assuming there are any sure things in the NFL anymore. Arizona must get to 9 wins to have a strong chance at holding off Chicago…and two more wins/10 wins total is a lock for the playoffs. The Cards face an out-of-the-playoffs 49ers team at home Saturday…but the Niners are pesky. Arizona has a slight edge for the wild card, but Chicago owns the tiebreakers, if it comes down to it, from what I see. It may come down to whether GB at CHI Week 17…and if the Packers care about the game or not. If I were GB, I’d rather see Chicago into the playoffs than Arizona.

The Eagles are now (4-9-1) and would need to win out and Washington to lose out, and the Eagles would win the division…which if Philly wins this week (at Dallas) and Washington loses to Carolina this week…then Philly is one game out – and then hosts Washington Week 17 for all the marbles! The Eagles have a shot at this.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Well, NFL intelligentsia…do you think Jalen Hurts (24-44 for 338 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 11-63-1) can throw the ball effectively in the NFL now? I can’t wait for them all to gloss over it with like ‘hmmm, whaddya know Hurts threw the ball well…I’m shocked! Now, onto how great Tua Tagovailoa is…’

So many Hurts’ thoughts, let me share some with you…

1) Hurts will not be given the full credit by anyone for this effort…not just because they want to hide from their bad scouting call – but because none of THEM realize the Arizona Cardinals have a top 6-10 NFL defensive unit. I don’t care what the stats or metrics or analytics say about the Cards-D – that’s a top unit I see with my eyes over the past several weeks/all season. They’ve just had a tougher schedule, so it gets hidden a bit.

I scouted Arizona’s defense and D-C Vance Joseph poorly for 2020. I thought they’d be a joke…but they’re a very good unit.

2) If you scouted Tua as several grades above Hurts, you’re going to regret/pay for that call. Analysts will forget about it and not examine why they were wrong and go happily along their merry way with the public worshipping them. The Miami Dolphins missed on Hebert and Hurts, and it cannot be forgotten…and someone should be fired for that immediately. They won’t be.

3) Jalen Hurts IS the franchise for Philly now. I said all along, all 2020 preseason and in-season – if Hurts ever got a chance, the city would fall in love with him and it would be hard to turn back. Well…boom.

4) Carson Wentz will have to be traded, and he will be. He’ll have many suitors because the NFL hive minds still sees a franchise QB. I see a solid one, but not a franchise one. He’ll be coveted by teams without top NFL Draft picks to land QBs. He could be a Patriot. Could be a Raider. There will be a few teams in the running.

5) Doug Pederson should be fired after this season, even if Philly wins the East and goes on a Super Bowl run. He is as culpable for football personnel fraud as much as the people who still like Tua more than Hurts. Pederson fought putting in Hurts all year (and now he’ll try to take credit for it…Pederson is a nice guy, but I call bullshit).

6) Hurts is better than Lamar Jackson…and Taysom Hill, and Marcus Mariota…and any of the run-first QBs in the league right now. He has a different, unique style and I cannot believe more is not being made of his weightlifting dedication and physical strength that makes him this unique power RB playing QB. If you subscribed to CFM, you knew it in January 2020…and how it could affect his NFL play (positively).

7) Hurts is a QB1 for 2021, no debate. It’s locked in. It happened that fast.

 -- I wrote about Jalen Hurts first, but I should have written about Kyler Murray (27-36 for 406 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 8-29-1) first. Why?

I nearly cried when I saw all the Dynasty teams checking in all excited by their Week 15 playoff wins – led by this monster FF effort by Kyler. This was by design. This was a plan hatched in 2019…in the spring, in the summer of that year…ahead of the Dynasty Rookie Draft – me laying out the case to do whatever you had to do to get on Kyler. And many of you did whatever needed be done to accomplish getting your hands on Kyler.

Wish you had Josh Jacobs now (the top ranked/taken prospect in the 2019 DRD)?

Even those who flipped Kyler earlier this season for Josh Allen + stuff…you won too. You got extreme value at just the right time. Your investment in Kyler paid off in multiples.

Kyler is starting to pick the team up and put it on his back a lot of drives/times now…it’s not just the offensive pace or Air Raid (which is awful). It’s not D’Andre Hopkins bailing him out, although that helps. It’s Kyler starting to become a star…but an even bigger star for FF.

The current #1 QB in PPG for fantasy 2020…Kyler Murray.

The current #1 scorer in all fantasy football…Kyler Murray.

Mission accomplished.

Tips are not required but are not unwelcome…  :)

 -- Who does Kyler throw to when not throwing everything to DeAndre Hopkins?

Not Christian Kirk (3-33-0/4)…this was a perfect spot for Kirk to have a solid+ game, but it’s like he wasn’t there – which is par for the course for the past several weeks. He’s done for FF 2020.

KeeSean Johnson (2-38-0/3) is starting to creep up into a trusted role. He’s going to be a starter in 2021, I believe…but not super exciting for FF. A bunch of 4-5 catches, 40-50 yards and no TDs games.

Dan Arnold (3-54-0/5), to me, is becoming Kyler’s #2 favorite option. 2.33 rec., 47.3 yards, 1.0 TDs per game the past 3 weeks. Kyler is also speaking of Arnold in interviews. He’s a TE1 hopeful week-to-week…another of these guys who was not-a-TE but converted and is growing into a legit top half of the league TE weapon.

 -- Who is Jalen Hurts throwing to the most/who is his #1? I’m not ready to make that call/it’s not obvious.

Dallas Goedert (4-39-0/8) seems like he was favored through Hurts’s first two starts, but not by much.

Alshon Jeffrey (2-63-0/3) has come to life with Hurts…not fully but showing a pulse again.

Jalen Reagor (5-49-0/8), I thought might be that guy…but not even close. There’s more Jeffrey + Hurts than Reagor + Hurts ‘sync’ that I see.

I think it’s still too early to call, and still developing on who it might be…but there will be a whole new #1-2 WRs here next year anyway.

 -- Just to note…Quez Watkins (3-40-1/4) got my attention here for the first time this season.

Check this out: https://youtu.be/I_5qxE6ugSI?t=15

Most NFL WRs cannot do that…a 180 and then run by everyone. There’s Combine speed, and then there’s NFL speed…that was some NFL speed.

He might be another Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Tre’Quan Smith (fast guys who aren’t great NFL WRs, but they’re fast and OK enough) – but I’ve never seen MVS or TS do something like what Watkins did on his TD in this game.

 -- Dead for Fantasy…the RBs from these two teams. Dead because of their QBs taking a lot of the good stuff for FF numbers.

…and they’re both marginal/OK talents for the NFL. Nothing special.

Miles Sanders (17-64-0, 1-26-0/2) had the kind of numbers here that I think you can expect most weeks…1-2 catches 50-75 yards total…RB2-3 work because of Hurts sucking away numbers.

Kenyan Drake (10-26-0, 2-14-0/2) continues to put up weak rushing numbers, but he does get short TDs to prop himself up. I’m still not sure if Drake will be back in Arizona next season (the free agent to be).

 -- I’m a fan of this Arizona defense, as I mentioned prior in this article…and the last few weeks. Their strength of schedule is hiding them a bit. Week 16 hosting the 49ers, with SF out of the playoffs…it could be a nice start for his DST.

Really good if Nick Mullens starts.

Just ‘good’ if C.J. Beathard Starts.

Snap Counts of Interest:

36 = Edmonds

34 = Drake

52 = Jeffrey

46 = Reagor

44 = Ward

28 = Q Watkins

26 = Fulgham