R.C. Fischer

FFM

27 August 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6 Game Analysis: Chargers 34, Jets 28

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Just when you think the Chargers can’t get anymore embarrassing, then they go out and win this game.

It’s a ‘win’ that’s a ‘loss’ in my book…how Anthony Lynn is not fired right now is beyond me. Heck, he’ll probably keep his job another season. He’s fleeced the NFL, like so many NFL coaches – he’d be a better high school coach. Central casting for a TV show/movie coach…not good in the NFL. Matt Patricia is complained about constantly and no one says anything about Lynn.

The Chargers have invented ever-new ways to lose games after getting out to leads for a half+, and in this game they tried desperately to keep their ‘get a big lead and lose it in remarkable fashion’ streak alive, but alas…Lynn couldn’t ruin it. The Jets game-tying chance landed short at the end.

The Chargers led the winless Jets 24-6 at halftime. Eventually pushing to a 31-13 lead with 20 minutes left in the game. No way the Jets would come back on the Chargers in that kind of deficit! Of course, the Jets went on a 15-3 run to pull it to 34-26 with 4+ minutes left, and then held the Chargers next drive, got the ball back and drove down into the LAC territory but could convert.

However, the failed drive didn’t thwart the Chargers from trying to lose it with seconds remaining.

On 4th & 14 with 0:08 left, the Chargers decided to punt…but snapped the punt and let the punter run (from his own 20 or so) into the end zone to run out the clock. The punter ran straight to the back of the end zone and waited and got pushed out with 0:01 left. Instead of running around the end zone and heading to the far corner for defenders to have to chase longer to get to him, in order to run the clock to 0:00…the punter ran straight to the middle back and waited, which allowed the defense to get to him quicker, and he got pushed out on purpose with 0:01 remaining. Then instead of an ensuing onside or squib kick, they kicked it off long and allowed a return…but it was halted, and LAC won.

The Chargers tried hard to lose to the lowly Jets, but they failed. They are now (3-7). Get this – their 3 wins are against the Bengals (which they should’ve lost) opening day, the Jags, and the Jets. Three wins over teams who have combined for 3 wins between them this season. I cannot rest until LAC gets its 9th loss and I win my ‘under’ preseason bet on their 7.5 win total. This loss really would’ve helped.

The Jets are (0-10) but playing better and better…they should’ve beat New England Week 9. They flustered Buffalo Week 7. They roared back, didn’t fold, here against the Chargers. The Jets are going to win a game, just not sure who against. Could be Miami this week.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Once again, Kalen Ballage (16-44-0, 7-27-0/9) was the clear, lead RB for the Chargers. We’re all excited by this, but note his three games as ‘the man’ for LAC:

16.3 carries, 60.33 yards (3.7 ypc) rushing…with his tallies getting lower and lower in yards per carry each game. He’s just not a lead RB for a long period of time. He can fill-in, have a moment, but he is not an every game lead worker. He has always had bad vision and bad instincts/reads as a runner but is built like a mother. He can play physical and get yards with some blocking. Looks like a star, physically, but isn’t one. There’s a reason why he keeps bouncing from team-to-team.

I don’t have a discriminating RB palette right now. Any port in a storm. Ballage has RB1 activity in PPR for now, so I’ll ride it. Looks like we got one more week before Austin Ekeler returns to steal all the gold.

Remember, how excited everyone was for Joshua Kelley (4-0-0, 2-40/2)? He’s now down to 3.0 yards per carry this season (on 102 carries). Some of that is on the O-Line.

 -- Just wanted to note really quick…Justin Herbert (37-49 for 366 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) is awesome.

His game featured how bad Anthony Lynn is at coaching. So, he possesses this nuclear weapon in Hebert…and the guy has 290 passing yards BY HALFTIME and then gets scared and pulls back the reins and tries to run it out with his off-the-street RB and terrible O-Line and goes away from the only thing he’s got (Herbert). Which, of course, allows the Jets right back in the game.

The Chargers should just throw every play.

No, scratch that. I don’t want Anthony Lynn to get to 8 wins and stay coaching here and beat my ‘under’ win total bet. Lose two more games, then throw every play. Lynn will probably bench Herbert for Tyrod soon, as was his plan all along…his crafty eye said Tyrod was better than Herbert.

You wanna tell me again that NFL head coaches know more than fans/lay people because they are with the players all the time and we’re not? Lynn saw Herbert all summer…and went confidently with Tyrod. That tells you what you need to know.

 -- Denzel Mims (3-71-0/8) was the recipient of the 4th & 9 throw from midfield that ended the Jets drive/chance to score/tie the game. It was a one-on-one coverage bomb and Mims got his hands on it but great coverage and no chance to catch it really.

I point this out because every week it seems like Mims takes another little baby step ahead in trust and the style/toughness of the catches that he’s making. He has more steps to go, but a little storm is brewing with him…he’s getting a little better each week. And I like the way either Darnold or Flacco have been throwing to him in times of trouble.

Trevor Lawrence + Mims might be a thing in 2021 after all.

It’s still early in this process, but there are good signs showing.

 -- Ty Johnson (4-17-0/6) got some 3rd-down back/hurry up offense time and saw nice targeting but he didn’t make any magic from them. There is some hope he is in this role again Week 12 with Perine on IR) and then gets some carries too. You’d think they Jets would want to see what they got in Ty, but they will likely go with Frank Gore as heavy as possible…just ‘because’.

 -- Side note: Jamison Crowder (1-16-0/4) has kinda disappeared, but he got hurt and missed Weeks 7-8, returned with Flacco for a 2-catch Week 9 and then a bye and then his dud with Flacco. It seems like he’s dead.

However, Weeks 1-6 WITH Darnold, Crowder was averaging 7.3 catches, 95.8 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game. The #7 PPR PPG WR in fantasy. He’s Darnold’s guy.

I mention this because you can probably acquire him for near nothing, thrown into deals (if trading is still happening) – if you want to gamble on him, gambling that Darnold is back Week 12 (or 13).

 -- IDPs of note…

Jets rookie SAF Ashtyn Davis (12 tackles, 1 TFL) had his first big tackle count game of 2020…it’s been brewing, as I’ve been hinting for a few weeks. He could close strong for IDP because the Jets are on defense quite a bit.

LAC rookie LB Kenneth Murray (7 tackles, 1 TFL) had his best game, for IDP, in a few weeks. He’s in coverage or blitzing (to no avail) some to take away from pure interior linebacker tackle tallies up the middle. I’m not down on him, but he’s not useful right now…but once Lynn is gone, and he grows an extra year – he’ll be a top LB in the NFL someday.  

Snap Counts of Interest:

55 = Ballage

16 = Pope

11 = Kelley

59 = Perriman

56 = Crowder

54 = Mims

35 = Gore

14 = Ty Johnson

11 = Perine

R.C. Fischer

FFM

26 August 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Colts 27, Texans 20 (Short Report)

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.

GAME ANALYSIS:

After the 1st-quarter it was 14-0 Indy, and an easy/expected victory seemed at hand…and then the Texans just waltzed back into the game with Indy adrift (as they seem to do every week) and the game was tied 20-20 with 7+ minutes left.

The Colts got their S together and scored a TD with 1:52 remaining. The Texans got the ball back and drove right down the field. 4th & 5 for Houston, in the Indy red zone…a completed pass to Keke Coutee for a 1st-down with less than 0:30 remaining, and as he made his way to the end zone he was hit from behind, the ball flew into the end zone, a mad dash for the loose ball, Jordan Akins had it his way but as he pounced on it – it squirted out to an incoming Indy defender and touchback…ball game. The second time in three weeks that the Texans were looking to tie the game late from 2-yards away only to fumble the ball over to Indy. Two losses to Indy that might have been wins but Houston blew it.

The Colts are now (10-4)…a very lucky 10-win team. They have at PIT and JAX the final two games. If they end up tied (record-wise) with Tennessee, the Titans (I believe) win the tiebreaker (if TEN doesn’t lose to HOU Week 17) and the AFC South. If Indy wins out, they have a good shot to win the division. Going to crumbling Pittsburgh and winning Week 16 is the do-or-die game (considering JAX Week 17).

Houston inexplicably falls to (4-10). A coach fired 4 games in. Injuries all over. PED suspension with Will Fuller. What a disaster this season ahs been. Don’t worry, it’s nothing Marvin Lewis can’t fix.

WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?

 -- Was this a turning point for David Johnson (8-27-0, 11-106-0/11) in the passing game…15 weeks into the season…can we get excited now?

Yes.

The first couple passes in this game was Deshaun scrambling and finding a scramble drill DJ broken loose 10+ yards downfield for some nice catch and run action – nothing on purpose. But then, as the game evolved, for the first time all year, Watson was setting up the defense…sending WRs deep, Watson looking deep, and then looking to a drifting open DJ for some wide-open outlet valve pass plays.

They could’ve been doing this all season. It took 15 weeks for Deshaun to realize it. I don’t want to hear this guy is an elite QB. No one could be that dumb, other than his coaches, to possess David Johnson on purpose – and not realize he’s an ace in the passing game…the ultimate mismatch…the easiest throw Watson could make all season…over and over – like what Drew Brees does with Alvin Kamara.

So, will this keep up Week 16?

I think so. I hope so. It looked like Watson finally gets it. I’ve been watching DJ closely, for obvious reasons, all season…and have been beyond frustrated with how they’ve not thrown to him at all…even with him wide open right in front of Watson. This looked like a turn. Will it be an 11-catch game again? Probably not, but the Texans will either run all over Cincy or if they get down and start throwing heavy…DJ will be involved like a swollen J.D. McKissic.

There’s DJ hope once again.

 -- Jonathan Taylor (16-83-1, 4-12-0/5) is starting to ‘get it’ too. For the last few weeks, he has looked better and better…not just more touches but gaining in confidence…making moves instead of preoccupied with where he’s supposed to be or keeping two-hands-on-the-ball and curling up into contact. Now, he’s starting to feel it…now, we’re starting to see him making moves on defenders. This is the game I saw the ‘old’/the college-great Taylor flashing at the pro level.

Best running back in the 2020 class. Best pure runner of the ball…him and Dobbins.

This was also a game where I saw Indy really designing the offensive plan on Taylor’s back. Much less rotating in and out. He played 70% of the snaps here.

 -- Philip Rivers (22-28 for 228 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) versus tough defenses (considering not missing any top corners for the game, and their ranking, etc.) this season…

55.2%, 190 yards, 1 TD/0 INT = Week 4 at CHI (loss)

63.7%, 243 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs = Week 5 at CLE (loss)

58.1%, 227 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT = Week 9 v. BAL (loss)

Less than 60% Comp. Pct, less than 250 yards every game, 1 TD/3 INTs, (0-3) record

The rankings (by yds per gm allowed) of all the other pass defenses he faced this year, in the order he played them…

#28 (JAX)

#24 (MIN)

#30 (NYJ)

#20 (CIN)

#27 (DET)

#29 (TEN)

#9 (GB) *Maybe should be included in the ‘tough’ list but I don’t see the GB pass defense as ‘tough’, but they’re OK. CHI, CLE, BAL were much better back the weeks Indy faced them – they were as healthy as they’ve been all season and really took it to Rivers.

#29 (TEN)

#23 (HOU)

#26 (LV)

#23 (HOU)

He faces the toughest defense by far he’s faced in 2020 this week – the #2 ranked Steelers. How do you think this will go for Rivers…and the WRs…? Probably, not well.

 -- Brandin Cooks (6-59-0/7) since the Texans Week 9 bye…

4.8 rec., 69.3 yards, 0.17 TDs per game…7.9 non-PPR/12.7 PPR PPG

No TDs his last 5 games…1 TD his last 7 games.

WR2 in PPR… not so good non-PPR. Cooks had a hot streak Week 5-9 and has been WR2-2.5 since.

ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):

 -- Kahale Warring (2-32-0/2) had a couple nice targets/solid catches but he’s still playing very limited snaps. He likely won’t get a ‘start’ until Week 17…if then.

He’s more of a 2021 hopeful, but we have to see who the head coach is. However, Jordan Akins is a free agent. Darren Fells is aging out. Warring is the prime player remaining for the new regime…and he has draft stock – a former early 3rd-round pick.

IDP/DST NOTES:

 -- All that stuff above about Philip Rivers’s problem with tough pass defense…especially playing tougher defenses outdoors – Rivers has been in a dome the past five weeks/all December. This week outdoors, moderate temps (nice for DEC), against a top pass defense.

I like the Steelers-DST just fine here because Rivers isn’t as good in the cold, and against tougher defenses. His arm is just not there anymore, and he has no mobility.

Rivers got beat down by the AFC North this year. BAL and CLE rocked him, and they were getting killed by Cincy Week 6, but had a furious comeback and luckily won.

SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:

38 = Taylor

16 = Hines

55 = David Johnson

10 = B Howell

04 = Sc Phillips

41 = Doyle

25 = Alie-Cox

19 = Burton 

FFM

Total Football Advisor

20 February 2020

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2020

2020 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Nathan Rourke, Ohio

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2020

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2020

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2020

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2020

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2020

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2020