- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Steelers 26, Broncos 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Steelers led 17-3 at halftime. They had sent Drew Lock out of the game. Courtland Sutton would be lost for the year eventually. Everything that could go wrong for Denver was going wrong…and, yet, with 7+ minutes remaining…the Broncos had a couple of shots/drives to win the game at the end.
I’m not sure if it was the Steelers got lax or if the Broncos are just so scrappy (and enjoy losing closing games, as they do)…but it ended up closer than it felt watching it. Denver is scrappy. The Steelers are still a bit sloppy but might have the best defense in football…so they’ll only fade so far in a game.
Pittsburgh gets more of a test this week with Houston…as they inch closer to a Week 7 showdown at Baltimore. I don’t know how good the Steelers…I should say I don’t know how great they are. I know they are good, but are they legit Super Bowl contenders? I think they are, but we’ll get another clue this week v. a tougher/desperate Houston.
Denver has lost a couple of it’s best players, heart & soul types…and they cannot recover from it. Courtland Sutton and Von Miller out for the season, and Phillip Lindsay and A.J. Bouye missing…it’s almost a ‘win’ in this close loss because it’s a miracle they were in it to the end (or the Steelers aren’t as good as we think). Denver hosts Tampa Bay this week and that might be closer than the Bucs/the public expects too.
Denver has lost too many top players and has too tough a schedule from Week 5 on to make any noise for 2020. They should start selling pieces now. Drew Lock getting hurt was the best thing that ever happened to this team, but they don’t see it that way.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First things first…I don’t think you fully appreciate what is happening with Diontae Johnson (8-92-1/13). Sure, you’re happy he had a big game. You’re hopeful. You like him. You’re encouraged.
You are sitting on Antonio Brown in the making…and this AB 2.0 is ALSO with Big Ben. We have a QB that knows what this means/how to use it. If it were Derek Carr/Jon Gruden + Diontae, he’d be blocking for run plays every down and having 2-3 catches a game and no one would care.
You have a WR1 in PPR with Diontae, no more questions asked this year.
If Diontae ever stops ___-ing up the first few plays of each game, it would be nice. Week 1…muffed punt and then a drop and then a wrong route – and then gold the rest of the way. Week 2…fumbled a jet sweep first play, a drop soon after, and then gold.
The Steelers WR group after two games…
14 rec., 23 targets, 149 yards, 1 TD = Diontae
13 rec., 14 targets, 117 yards, 2 TDs = JuJu
05 rec., 05 targets, 127 yards, 1 TD = Claypool (now a viable FF player suddenly)
02 rec., 03 targets, 34 yards 1 TD = Washington
The thing is…98% of the FF population would feel better if they had Chris Godwin or D.J. Moore instead. If you don’t have Diontae, you can still get him…but it will cost you. It might be a sacrifice you want to make.
I suspect many of you don’t fully appreciate the treasure you possess in Diontae…that you fully feel the full value…like someone else who struggles with valuations: https://youtu.be/xyyqoHCkw9I
-- Speaking of WR greatness…Chase Claypool (3-88-1/3) is coming on so fast it’s amazing. I projected him as future-great/top of the WR draft class type talent, but I didn’t think it could happen with this WR group in place this quickly. I’m so happy Claypool is getting a chance to shine.
He might be a week or two away from being a legit starter, especially in non-PPR leagues. Claypool and Diontae are two of the best WR talents I’ve scouted in the past 5 years…both on the same team, and Claypool isn’t starting yet, but it won’t be long now.
This is why I’ve been anti-JuJu Smith-Schuster (7-48-0/8)…he’s got too much talent enveloping him for touches.
-- Chase Claypool doesn’t go 1st-round of the NFL Draft, isn’t a starter, makes 3rd-round chump money for the next four years…and yet Jerry Jeudy (4-62-0/7), who sucks by the way, is a multi-millionaire 1st-round pick. And yet we trust the NFL analysts inherently…
In case you’re wondering, Jeudy has 4 drops this season…all on passes over the middle. I think the NFL has only tagged him with two and none in this game…but he flat out dropped two easy passes here – because he heard footsteps. That’s why he sucks. He’s S-A-W-F-T. He is quite bouncy though, and that’s cool to look at when they talk about his bounciness for 10 minutes and never address the massive drops problem he has.
Rabbitt (expert Denver analyst/fan), am I wrong here?
-- Also, one of the best WRs I have ever scouted is Courtland Sutton (3-66-0/6)…who went in the 2nd-round of his draft because NFL analysts are above reproach by guys like me…he came back from his shoulder injury like a beast in this game…and then was taken away from us with an ACL.
Saquon and CMC take the headlines, but FFM-land got crushed this week too, in retrospect…we lost Parris Campbell and Courtland Sutton. That really stings. This year is crazy…and we’re two weeks in. Never been a season start like this for me…radical FF scoring from single players against teams killing teams, plus all these injuries. That’s why you can’t panic off two tough games to start the season…there’s a lot of spasms, high-highs and low-lows and injuries throwing everything off it’s normal flow.
We’re just two weeks in.
We just have to stay in the game, make smart not panic moves, and let the luck/fortune turn our way.
-- Noah Fant (4-57-1/5) is the big winner of Courtland going out (and Jeudy sucking). He’ll be the de facto #1/go-to for Denver now. How great that is with Drew Lock remains to be seen. It won’t be bad with Jeff Driskel. It’s not got the upside we’d hope…now teams are going to start defending it.
-- Speaking of Jeff Driskel (18-34 for 256 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT), he’s better than Drew Lock…that’s not a huge compliment, it’s just a fact. Not much changes with him in and Lock out…except Driskel is better for all.
-- We got to see the debut of K.J. Hamler (3-48-0/7) in this game. There’s literally 50 WRs just like him that are backups. I don’t get the huge appeal of Hamler. He is starting and will see targets, so there’s that. He isn’t terrible…just very tiny and OJ/good not good/great…on a bad passing game.
Damiere Byrd or Keelan Cole or Darnell Mooney are more exciting/better FF WRs.
-- Was anyone surprised James Conner (16-106-1, 2-12-0/2) would not get a full push back into the bell cow role? He will have it until his next injury…+/- 2-3 weeks.
-- The Denver-DST isn’t bad. They really gave a good/efficient Tennessee offense all they could handle Week 1. They held the Steelers to 2-for-12 on 3rd-downs. They got two turnovers. They pushed a very good Steelers offense/Big Ben. They fought hard against two playoff teams.
Three of the next 4 weeks they are viable, for FF. Week 3 hosting Tampa Bay might not be bad, but it’s not preferred. If Bouye is back, it’s not terrible.
You pick them up Week 3 to have them Week 4 v. NYJ.
Week 5 at NE is shaky but doable. Week 6 against Miami at home works well.
Not a hot DST, but one decent among the rubble of the unclaimed. And one to look ahead to Week 4.
-- The Steelers are in the argument for best defense in the NFL now, but before we get too excited – they have faced Daniel Jones and Jeff Driskel, so far. We don’t know how good/great they are. Facing HOU and at TEN the next two weeks aren’t gimmies, but worthy FF plays…just not top FF plays those weeks. Week 7-8-9 is at BAL, BYE, at DAL…that’s a stretch where you need a 2nd DST. You don’t wanna get rid of the Steelers totally then but they’re fine leading up to that stretch and then we’ll see.
In this game, the Steelers had 7 sacks, 13 TFLs, and 19 QB Hits.
By comparison, Denver had 1 sack, 6 TFLs, and 3 QB Hits.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = JuJu
54 = Diontae
31 = Washington
24 = Claypool
50 = Conner
10 = Snell
61 = M Gordon
16 = Royce Freeman
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Bucs 31, Panthers 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This felt like a blowout watching the tape…it was 21-0 Bucs at the half. The Bucs seemed to do whatever they wanted, and the Panthers looked jumpy/skittish and on their way to certain defeat. Somehow, with 2:00 minutes left, the Panthers kicked a field goal to make it 24-17 Bucs, a one score game. The Bucs scored on the first play of that next drive and it was ‘over’.
The Panthers have not looked great, but somehow -- they are in games with good teams to the end (took Las Vegas to the wire, and almost caught the Bucs here). They will be a tough out. Their defense is not ready to help them win games just yet. A little more seasoning may show them to be a better unit 2nd-half of the season.
I think the Panthers would really shine facing a defense with a low-pressure front/bad pass rush. Teddy needs time, but unfortunately they have nothing but aggressive defenses (now that ATL is a higher pressure front) until Week 10, and only Week 11 will they get a break (v. DET). Without CMC, it’s even worse pressure coming. The Panthers are in for a rude awakening ahead via schedule, if I’m right…because defensive pressure is their kryptonite. If you can bet a win total ‘under’ for the ROS, it might be a winner.
The Bucs are the ultimate high-pressure front and forced Teddy Bridgewater into two picks and no TD passes. They also registered 5 sacks. The Bucs have an emerging, top NFL/FF defense. Their offense is pretty good too. This is a legit playoff team, except I’m not sure Tom Brady has enough juice left to go all the way…but he may just need more time to adjust to his surroundings.
Tampa will be in some ‘slog’ games at DEN, v. LAC, at CHI then next three weeks. We might see the power run game of Tampa emerge as the lead punch…not Brady flinging it all around.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- OK, Christian McCaffrey (18-59-2, 4-29-0/5) is projected to be out for 3-6 weeks. That’s long enough that the replacement RB matters for a bit for FF but short enough time to deal with where Carolina is not going to do anything radical at RB, like go out and make a trade or sign the ghost of Devonta Freeman, etc.
Mike Davis (1-1-0, 8-74-0/8) played more in this game than any Carolina RB I think I’ve seen in 2-3 years…he was coming on some 3rd-downs early in the game. He was in the third play of the game – they trust Mike Davis. It’s Davis that you want for this backfield for FF for the short term.
Trenton Cannon is listed 3rd-string, but he’s more of a 3rd-down/2-minute drill screen pass option…not a real RB, per se.
The wild card is Reggie Bonnafon, who is on the practice squad. He was the guy backing up CMC in 2019, and he made some splash plays in the preseason and regular season the past two years. I was surprised the Panthers cut him and put him on the practice squad. He may not be the new regime’s cup of tea…which is why I lean heavy Mike Davis coming up -- but note that the offense changes with Davis vs. McCaffrey. I doubt we see Davis getting a thousand targets a game…except he got 8 targets in this game working the late comeback efforts.
Link: https://youtu.be/rj96vXx3wxg
Davis has RB1 potential short-term, if given a chance…but always seems to get hurt whenever he does get that chance (thus, keep an eye on Bonnafon).
If the Panthers sign an RB, just a generic…it might be over for Bonnafon here.
I would suspect a highly paid CMC on a bad football team not contending…I would think he’s not rushing back to action. I’d project him out longer rather than shorter.
-- Just as interesting, maybe more…we look at the soap opera that is the Tampa Bay backfield.
Leonard Fournette (12-103-2, 4-13-0/5) possibly laid claim to getting into more of a starter’s role here. We’ll see. I want to show you what happened in this game for the rotation, and you can decide what you think…
Ronald Jones (7-23-1, 2-4-0/2) started, as he does, and looked fine…scored on a sweet 7-yard TD run. Everything was normal…Jones started.
Fournette was seen entering the game in the 2nd-quarter.
Jones went to take a tricky hand-off from Brady on a delayed draw, there was a bad fumble on the exchange, a turnover. Brady was seen yelling on the sidelines about it (in my estimation, it was 97% Brady’s fault…but no one will ever say that to the prince of Tom-pa Bay).
If you didn’t watch the game, or even if you did among several games at one time (like me)…it seemed like that fumble was the catalyst for the rise of Fournette. But watching the tape…it wasn’t.
The very next series, after the RoJo (really Brady) fumble…Jones was in, and took the first play/carry. Everything was fine. In fact, Jones was out there first in most of the series after the fumble. No doghouse. No punishment.
Fournette kept working in and out and caught fire and they just literally ‘ran with it’. Fournette was running like the beast he is – a hammer up the middle, and rewatching this he wasn’t so bad on the outside. It’s just he’s so much more effective between the guards.
From the tape…it felt like RoJo was the guy…the purposed starter, but then I look and see Fournette played 26 snaps, RoJo 21 snaps, and McCoy 11.
Fournette looked much better this week than last…but Jones is not a chump in this equation. It’s entirely possible Tampa is about to turn into a power run team…the best power tandem run team in the NFL…and both guys end up producing.
You want both to make sure you have ‘the one’…it’s too late to get Fournette now, but Jones is probably on sale. The way RBs are dying, you want tandems when they are this talented…for your protection.
Last week, I thought Ronald Jones was going to hold that job for several more weeks. Now, Fournette made a move and I get a vibe that Fournette is inevitable but it’s always going to be a split role, a 1-2 punch unless one of them seriously messes up/gets hurt – and Jones is more likely to be the one set back in a few weeks. I don’t think Brady would ever be screaming at the sidelines near Fournette or he might get punched in the face.
‘Face’ is a good term of where this backfield is going – I feel like Fournette is the ‘face’ of what the TB team wants to be, so eventually…Fournette will be the lead ‘face’….a 60/40 lead. Until then, Fournette is just another talented guy getting 8-12 carries a game with 1-4 targets…which I just described several ‘starting’ NFL RB’s touch counts. Fournette as a backup will get low-end starter-level touches.
-- You want the TB RBs because this offense is going to be good. Why? Not because of Tom Brady (23-35 for 217 yards, 1 TD/1 INT), per se. Brady is now a very good game manager, but this power run game takes pressure off the passing game and the O-Line looks really good protecting Brady (Carolina had ZERO sacks and just ONE QB hit all game) and in run blocking.
Note for Brady: This was a no pressure defense on Brady, with a so-so/weaker secondary – and Brady threw for just 217 yards and 1 TD. The power run tandem might be the future of this offense, if Brady allows it…but then that opens up Brady too.
-- It’s turning into a Bruce Arians offense more than a Brady one…meaning the TEs are useless for fantasy. O.J. Howard (1-11-0/3) looks stiff and Gronk (1-11-0/3) looks shot. Cameron Brate may be their best TE…but it won’t matter for FF.
-- You thought Brady was going to turn Scotty Miller (2-11-0/3) into Julian Edelman here, but you got burned. I bought it too. Note…Miller had a 21-yard TD pass go right through his hands or this would have been a touch different outcome.
-- Teddy Bridgewater (33-43 for 367 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) looks very jumpy under any pressure. High pressure defenses are going to expose him from what I’m seeing. Teddy has very good passer instincts and good ball placement, when he’s comfortable…but when he has any pressure he gets nervous and throws offline and into danger in 2020.
It’s a weird scouting event to judge…he can look so solid one play and then terrible the next…missing wide-open throws or throwing passes behind receivers instead of in-front of them. Maybe, Teddy gets more comfortable as he goes…but I don’t love what I see. He’ll be good for garbage time when the pressure is less, and the defense is ‘preventing’.
Teddy’s on-target throw percentage (% of attempts deemed on-target) is 32.9% right now (through 2 games). It was 81.3% behind the great O-Line of the Saints in 2019. By comparison, Brady is at 76.5% in 2020, was 73.1% in 2019.
-- OK, OK enough with the Curtis Samuel (2-13-0/2, 4-26-0) talk from me. It’s likely never going to happen…he’s never going to be used to seriously run the ball.
Sure, he got 4 carries here…but all jet sweeps/reverses. It’s a good sign that he got four carries but I was hoping he’d line up in the backfield some and really be a unique wrinkle…he’s not. Without CMC, we’ll see if he moves into the backfield some…but I doubt it. And in an all-pass comeback effort late, where a lot of the junk stats for everyone for CAR came from, Samuel saw 2 targets all game. That’s enough for me…no more hoping here.
-- The Panthers signed Rasul Douglas (7 tackles) when the Eagles cut him before the season started, and now he’s a starter. Douglas has knack for FF stats, so watch him for IDP.
-- I’m seeing some signs of ‘it’ with the Bucs defense again this week. They were pitching a shutout for the first half, then kinda played soft and let Carolina mosey on back into the game.
Still, the TB-DST held Carolina to 17 points…while getting 5 sacks and forcing 4 turnovers. This is going to be a very aggressive defense that might give up some points/yards but has a high probability for turnovers and D TDs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Watson
53 = Evans
42 = Miller
42 = Gronk
34 = Howard
04 = Brate
26 = Fournette
21 = Jones
11 = McCoy
65 = DJ Moore
54 = Robby A
51 = Samuel
47 = McCaffrey
24 = M Davis
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Browns 35, Bengals 30
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was a game of Cleveland constantly going up two scores, the Bengals then responding cutting it to a one score game, then the Browns back up two scores, the Bengals answering to cut it one, and the Browns would answer to go up by two scores…until finally the clock expired and the Browns won (and Bengals covered me +6.0, thank you Lord).
18 legit drives in the game between the two teams, and 11 of them resulted in some kind of score. Another drive was halted on a 4th & 2 to-go goal line shot. You can complement the offenses…or mock the defenses.
…I think it was the defenses.
The Browns climb to (1-1) but I wouldn’t trust them as far as you could throw them. They should beat Washington in Week 3, but that’s not assured...and a Week 3 win would set off a Browns revival/tizzy and then they’ll get stomped out from there. It’s a 5-6-7 win team depending upon their secondary getting back healthy.
The Bengals have stayed close for two games in a row now, and it’s all because of Burrow…because other than that this team does not look good. The fact that the Bengals looked good/strong against LAC opening day would make me scared to death for the Chargers season ahead (unless they permanently switch to Justin Herbert). Cincy will be lucky to win 3-4 games this year. There are too many head winds and rebuilding/retooling/dumping of the roster as we go this season for Burrow to try and flirt with any type of shock .500/8-win season.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- My biggest takeaway from this game… Folks, A.J. Green (3-29-0/13) is ‘shot’; he’s done. He’s no longer a legit #1 NFL WR. I don’t even know how good of an NFL starting WR he is anymore.
Now, perhaps he’s secretly injured…so, give that allowance – but what I am seeing on tape is frightening. He’s gotten so slow/stiff. His routes are so not-sharp. Denzel Ward (3 tackles, 3 PDs) ate him alive. It was child’s play. AJG ‘earned’ that terrible stat line.
I went back and watched his Week 1 targets just to see why I didn’t notice it last week, and I saw the same slow/troublesome WR in Week 1. Now that I saw/caught it on Week 2 TNF…I could see it in Week 1 as well.
In two games in 2020, Green has been targeted 22 times…caught 8 of them (37%) – that’s atrocious considering he’s playing with a very good Joe Burrow in an offense that is passing a lot against softer coverage. AJG has faced tough corners out of the gates, but it’s not that…it's that he is visibly ‘shot’ is the only word I can use to describe it (or he’s secretly hurt).
If AJG is ‘done’, functionally ‘done’…the ‘winner’ is going to be Tyler Boyd (7-72-1/8). Like he was here. You want in on Boyd for PPR with Joe B., but the price jumped after his TNF game…but it’s probably not going to go near high enough as it should and the TNF effort will be lost through all the Sunday and Monday events. People don’t really believe in or hold Boyd in high regard – he’s going to be an excellent ‘buy low’ this week…even if the price is higher than it was last week.
Boyd should be priced/acquired as a WR2-2.5…because if we were redrafting again today, he would go in about the same area of the draft…around the 30th WR off the board. People still think A.J. Green is the #1 here, and that holds Boyd’s value down still.
-- Speaking of ‘shot’ WRs…Odell Beckham (4-74-1/6) had a moment on national TV…which creates a great chance to ‘sell it’. He does get Washington in Week 3, so he might have one more TD in him before the fade to WR3-ville for the season.
Even with this great/juicy matchup, OBJ got all of 6 targets and 4 catches. To be fair, he had another 40+ yard TD stolen by a P.I. where he got held on a sure bomb TD pass, that he couldn’t get to because his jersey was grabbed as the pass was coming in for a landing. OBJ has become DeSean Jackson…seeks the safety of bombs to stay away from any interior contact. Has a moment every so often…but the ‘legend’ is greater than the reality.
-- It’s sad to say that Joe Burrow (37-61 for 316 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) is already better than Baker Mayfield (16-23 for 219 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT)…it’s the cool thing to say now in order to put down Baker, but it’s reality – but also Burrow is perhaps the single greatest QB prospect to come out of college football ever.
Also, Baker is stuck in an ill-fitting offense with terrible/not-trying WRs. Baker setting the rookie passing TD record in 2018, despite not starting the season, despite working with Hue Jackson, despite a coaching change midseason, despite how bad the Browns were then…it’s all been forgotten and Baker is being written off. You saw some flashbacks to good-Baker in this game, but it was also against a bad Bengals defense.
Baker only threw for 219 yards here. This is now considered a ‘good’ game for Baker now…219 yards and 2 TDs…and that was against a bad defense. Get used to these weak stat lines from Baker because the Browns are going to copycat Mike Zimmer’s heavy run game/style under Kevin Stefanski, and with good reason – Chubb/Hunt is all they got. They can win as an RB heavy and hopeful/mildly talented defense unit. This current Cleveland team trying to pass their way to victory is a waste because of OBJ/Landry (and no ‘real’ third option). They will stick with the run/RBs centric offense.
Baker, for FF, in Cleveland, is functionally FF-dead…a worse Kirk Cousins (for FF). Only a change of teams could save him, and even then…it would be a whole new offense/receivers, etc. I thought the Browns would unleash Baker in 2019 to throw at will…that plan got dashed in one season, and now he’s an FF-chump in 2020. Not his fault, but it’s a reality we have to deal with on him.
-- Joe Burrow looked fine once again…he’s a QB1 in 4 or 6pts ROS. I hoped he would be a QB1 in the preseason. I thought it more possible after watching Week 1 tape. It’s official now. End of story. QB1…back-end.
-- Another Joe Mixon (16-46-0, 4-40-0/4) FF dud…it means he due for a pop ahead. He’s getting good touches and got the best targeting here in a while it seems. I’m not in hot pursuit, but he is becoming a buy low – a legit top RB (for touches, etc.) people are starting bail on.
Gio Bernard (1-3-0, 5-22-0/7) gets too many 3rd-down/2-minute offense snaps, but Mixon is still fine regardless. Mixon is ‘the man’ here.
-- More than a few of you took the Nick Chubb (22-124-2, 1-9-0/1) and Kareem Hunt (10-86-1, 2-16-1/2) combo on purpose for 2020…hoping that Hunt would stand on his own for PPR, and/or get traded, and/or was a smart handcuff.
It looks like the Chubb-Hunt dual-threat plan in Cleveland is what is going to happen, because the Browns have little else going for them. They’re both going to co-exist.
Just note, this great moment was against the Bengals…let’s not think they’re dual RB1s. More likely they are dual RB1.5-2.0s. The Bengals defense is soft, their linebackers are shaky, and they were missing two DTs for this game.
-- I wondered if Austin Hooper (2-22-0/4) might start to see a few more targets as the WRs let Baker down again. The answer to that here was ‘NO’. He’s still just a bit player at this point. I haven't written him off yet, but I am not really interested in him either.
-- Cincy IDP notes…
CB Will Jackson (5 tackles, 1 PD) got burned by OBJ for a long TD, and then almost again soon after. Jackson looks stiff and not the elite cover guy he was coming out of the University of Houston.
Germaine Pratt (2 tackles) followed up a sweet debut Week 1 with a dud 2 tackle effort here. For as much as teams will run at Cincy, Pratt has to do better than this for IDP.
-- Browns’ IDP notes…
DB Tavierre Thomas (9 tackles) has had a nice start to 2020, but not he may dry up and disappear once the injured Browns’ starters return soon.
LB B.J. Goodson (7 tackles, 1 PD) is averaging 8.0 total tackles per game this year, but note…as soon as Mack Wilson can return, then Goodson probably dries up and disappears too.
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = Chubb
20 = Hunt
78 = Boyd
60 = Higgins
57 = AJG
32 = Mk Thomas
28 = Ross
46 = Mixon
42 = Gio
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Seahawks 38, Falcons 25
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The easy narrative here is…
Russell Wilson ‘got to cook’ (I hate that phrase already) and Atlanta is a perpetual letdown, and thus they had another letdown in a beating to Seattle. For an added bonus, Atlanta put up a bunch of garbage time late to push nice FF numbers.
…and the world continues to spin as it is supposed to.
I know, that’s what I thought walking out of Sunday’s action live – this was all normal, nothing new here. When I put the game recaps in order of priority/fantasy impact to discuss…this one made it to ‘last’ on my list because it went the way most expected and nothing shocked anyone looking at the box score.
However, after relooking at things, I think there was a piece of data that might sail right below the surface from this game. One that should give Atlanta hope, or cause Seattle fear…or both.
If you look at total QB Hits + TFLs in any NFL game…you can usually tell who won the game/how big of a beating it was. These two stats are obvious for why I mention them…you’d know which defense is controlling/dominating the offense/blocking.
I pulled all the Week 1 games for these numbers for a reason (that I’ll explain in a minute). But let’s jump right in and look at the Week 1 games by combined TFLs + QB Hits:
CHI 9 (won), DET 8.5
LAR 10 (won), DAL 4
DEN 10, TEN 9 (won)
GB 8 (won), MIN 4
LV 5 (won), CAR 4
You see a pattern? You see the levels/counts? OK, let’s proceed…
ARI (won) 10, SF 5…does this catch you by surprise, but then really doesn’t because Arizona won?
PIT 19 (won), NYG 9.5…big number for PIT, by prior comparison, right?
LAC 12.5 (won), CIN 6
KC 11 (won), HOU 8
NE 12 (won), MIA 9
How about the pattern you notice with these five games? More double-digit+ tallies with this group…and all game winners. In case you’re keeping track the QB Hits + TFL winners are (9-1) by what I’ve shown so far. But…
It’s not a guarantee of a stat though. Look at these tallies…
TB 14, NO 12 (won)…this is why you don’t write off TB and why you should get excited about their defense – they did that to a very good offense/O-Line.
NYJ 14.5, BUF 13.5 (won)…like I was saying about the scrappy/aggressive Jets defense.
CLE 12.5, BAL 10 (won) even I was shocked at this, but sometimes a huge blowout the winning team pulls up on the reins.
IND 10, JAX 7 (won)…who didn’t say about this game “The Colts were better than Jags here, but…”
See the pattern among the losing teams here…bigger tallies (on both sides of the game for the most part), but all losses for the QB Hit + TFL winners. Driving this ‘stat’s’ predictiveness to a (9-5) real win-loss record so far into our journey.
I’m missing two games. One is the SEA-ATL game. Let me share the other one that I saved for the shock value. Look at the numbers above…a total count of 8-13 is the prevailing tally for a team (win or lose). 14-15-16 tend to be the ‘big boy’ defenses. The Steelers with 19 total is the Week 1 leader so far.
OK, are you ready for this next one…
WAS 28 (won), PHI 16…now do you think I was being too over the top about the Washington defensive front? I’ve rarely seen a number over 20-22 in any game in a season. Either the Eagles are in big trouble (for obvious O-Line issues/reasons) and/or ‘The Football Team’ has ‘something’ special on defensive pressure.
Now, remember…it’s Week 1. We don’t know if the defense drove it…the offensive deficiencies drove it…the game plan drove it – and that with adjustments and injuries it will be all different next week. So, don’t jump off a cliff here…yet. What happened Week 1 is not necessarily the fact from here on in.
Five teams, of the 30 teams I’ve shown so far, hit 14 or more combined QB Hits + TFLs…and only two won, but two of them played each other as well. The 14+ club from Week 1: PIT-WAS-PHI-NYJ-TB…aggressive defenses and/or big-time fronts, and/or faced a team with a bad O-Line.
The last game to show…
15 ATL, SEA 14.5 (won).
Atlanta, of all teams, registered the 3rd-best number in the league Week 1. Is it the Seattle O-Line? The Falcons have a pass rush? Both? None…just luck? What happened?
Atlanta’s 2019:
MIN 14, ATL 7 (loss)
ATL 16 (won), PHI 10
…we’re about to lose six in-a-row
ATL 11.5 (loss), IND 8 (a close loss)
TEN 21.5, ATL 14 (loss)
HOU 13, ATL 4 (loss…crushed, gave up 53)
ARI 12, ATL 2 (loss)
LAR 19, ATL 12.5 (loss)
SEA 14, ATL 7 (loss)
…we’re about to turn the season around post-BYE
ATL 17 (win), NO 9…remember when they shockingly crushed the Saints here?
ATL 17.5 (win), CAR 14
TB 21, ATL 6 (loss)…I sensed the trend and bet ATL heavy to lose my life here.
NO 22, ATL 3 (loss)
ATL 15 (win), CAR 8
SF 12, ATL 8 (win)
JAX 11, ATL 9 (win)
TB 20, ATL 6 (win)
Atlanta registered 15 QB Hits + TFLs vs. Seattle in Week of 2020…when they hit 15 or more last year they were (3-0). Atlanta is usually in the 7-10 range. They are usually a low sack count/low pressure defense. In 2020, Week 1, they sacked Russell Wilson 3 times before halftime…they outgained Seattle in yards by a healthy amount in the 1st-half. It was only 14-12 Seattle at the half, and Atlanta was the better/equal team in the 1st-half.
In the 3rd-quarter, on a 4th & 2 at midfield, Atlanta ran a fake punt, got the 1st-down but fumbled…and turned it over – and that changed the game. The Falcons ended up down by 19 points in the 4th-quarter. They scored to make it a two-score game 31-18 with 9+ minutes left. Still a ballgame, but Seattle drove right down and scored to put it away.
This wasn’t the blowout that was (easily) portrayed. I’m not suggesting that Atlanta is great or a hot DST, but I am suggesting being ready to look for more clues Week 2 on…
1) Atlanta might have a pass rush/defensive front now. Dante Fowler (4 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFLs) was added in the offseason.
Takk McKinley, a former 1st-round pick who has battled off-field mental issues…he registered 6 QB Hits in this game. The most by any player Week 1. He played like his hair was on fire. In his first three seasons in the NFL he registered: 10-15-13 QB Hits…for a season. He had 6 in this game.
Grady Jarrett (5 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 QB Hits) is one of the best DTs in the NFL.
Atlanta can’t cover anyone (lost Desmond Trufant in the offseason, Kendall Sheffield hurt Week 1, and now starting a shaky rookie on one CB side already), so there’s that issue – but they showed signs that they can now get to the QB.
They face Dallas Week 2…and Dallas has lost a chunk of its O-Line. Be careful logging in Dallas as an auto-victory here. It might be another McKinley breakout event with Tyron Smith out.
2) OR…it could be that Seattle is awful on the O-Line.
Minus a Russell Wilson 28-yard scramble run…Seattle ran the ball 19 times for 56 yards…2.9 yards per carry. Wilson was sacked three times in the 1st-half…and hit 10 times total.
Notice where some of the Seattle offense came from…O-Line weakness plays…i.e. screen passes.
Be very afraid for Seattle v. Belichick this week.
Fantasy Player Notes…
*Other than that big defensive lead-in, all the FF players did what all these players tend to do. Let me just quickly comment on a few things that caught my eyes otherwise…
-- Todd Gurley (14-56-1, 2-1-0/5) looked fine. Not inspired, but not slow/terrible/knee problemed. He only played 46% of the snaps is an issue to fear, potentially. Brian Hill (3-012-0, 2-8-0/2) worked 27% of the snaps and Ito Smith (1-4-0, 3-2-0/3) 20%.
It’s more of a three-headed monster than you want if you are relying on Gurley.
-- Chris Carson (6-21-0, 6-45-2/6) caught two short pass TDs. His best moment was a 19-yard screen pass TD. Aside from that 19-yard screen pass TD…11 other touches for 47 yards total. Just 6 carries. Virtually a ghost in the 2nd-half.
Carson played 45% of the snaps…his pattern of play/snaps followed Gurley’s – he’s in a two/three headed monster backfield.
Carlos Hyde (7-23-1) looked WAY better running the ball, and he played 34% of the snaps.
Travis Homer (3-0-0, 2-4-0/2) played 21% of the snaps.
It may have been ‘game flow’ but be wary of Carson again, potentially.
-- Russell Gage (9-114-0/12) had to have the quietest 9 catches for 114 yards game in the history of football. He just doesn’t look like a star to me, not even ‘good’, just useful…and I’d bet he’s going to hurt taking a hit over the middle and missing games by midseason.
-- Hayden Hurst (3-38-0/5) looked really good, they just didn’t use him a lot. Bobby Wagner covered him well, and Jamal Adams was on him too…Hurst got some great coverage for some reason. Don’t give up on Hurst yet.
-- Will Dissly (2-8-0/2) was back for Week 1 after another season ending injury in 2019. He played 40% of the snaps and looked like he was blowing off the rust. He’ll be in a 50/50 snap share with Olsen before long, and Dissly maybe more snaps because he is such a great blocker. We’ll have to see if Dissly can hold up…or Olsen, for that matter.
Snap Counts of Interest:
68 = Ridley
65 = Julio
55 = Gage
11 = Zacchaeus
41 = Olsen
25 = Dissly
11 = Hollister
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Titans 16, Broncos 14
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This should’ve been a bigger win for the Titans. Not that the Broncos didn’t play the game/plan it as well as they could – but Stephen Gostkowski was going all Adam Vinateri/2019 and shanking field goal attempts all over. Gostkowski was 1/4 in FG attempts, and 1/2 in XP attempts…a nightmare game. When he lined up for the game winner/loser late, my heart literally stopped for him. The human in me wanted him to make that kick for his own sanity and for football justice for the Titans…and he (shockingly) split the uprights.
I saw this story last year, and it cost the Colts a playoff trip (I think) – they stick by the veteran, HOF kicker ‘because’ and it destroys them. Gostkowski almost cost them a win here. He’s going to if they keep sticking with him.
Aside from that, it was a well-played, tough/physical game with the Broncos having a rash of injuries in September to their best players coming in undermanned, and lost A.J. Bouye in-game here as well. The Broncos did all they could, but their season is about over before it starts due to the injuries (and Drew Lock). The Titans did what they had to do and pulled out a slugfest win.
Denver is staring down an 0-3 start with at PIT, TB ahead.
The Titans get a fortunate win and play Jacksonville for sole possession of 1st-place in the AFC South Week 2. The Titans need that Week 2 win…at MIN-PIT-BUF-HOU Weeks 3-6 is not going to be an easy stretch.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Is Corey Davis (7-101-0/8) back…or arrived finally? Maybe, but probably not. The Broncos went heavy after Derrick Henry and focused on A.J. Brown (5-39-0/8), and really took AJB out of the game 1st-half, as happens to AJB when he faces tough coverage. All of it allowed Davis, who was barely being covered, to go off for 5 catches for 76 yards in the 1st-half.
The Broncos adjusted and Davis went 2 catches for 25 yards in the more pass heavy 2nd-half. When Bouye went down and urgency struck…Ryan Tannehill (29-43 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) went to Brown-Humphries-Jonnu in that order, and Davis drifted into the backdrop.
‘Drifting into the backdrop’ is Corey Davis’s entire career. He’s not the plan on purpose. He’s a random WR3 event on a team not dedicated to the passing game and one that sees him as the 3rd-4th-best option when it’s crunch time. Don’t be dazzled because he was a really high draft pick WR…so was Mike Williams and John Ross that same year. In the 3rd-round of that 2017 Draft, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay were taken.
You know one of my sure scouting signs of a shaky NFL WR prospect? If they were taken in the 1st-round of the NFL Draft…that’s a damning sign.
I’d be a ‘sell high’ on Davis off this event if you can get anyone to bite.
If Brown misses this week…worse news for Davis as he’ll draw C.J. Henderson, who will shut him down. Davis might have another plausible FF game if Brown plays.
-- Jonnu Smith (4-36-1/7) got a little better run than usual…but it’s still very odd. Jonnu made a nice play early and then just disappeared. Like, why doesn’t Tennessee want more Jonnu? It works great, a lot. When the Titans were scuffling back-and-forth late with Denver, Jonnu saw a little more action and had a decent game…but 36 yards in a game is silly. He should have more, be used more. He’s still more gimmicky than not.
Still, he’s good enough to be a TE1 as a lowly targeted gimmick.
-- Noah Fant (5-81-0/6) benefitted from Courtland Sutton being out, and the fact that Fant is really good. Drew Lock is going to be a problem for Fant finding FF consistency. Fant is stuck as a wobbly/fringe TE1…but he’s so talented, like Jonnu (but differently talented) that Fant can make it work with limited looks.
-- The Jerry Jeudy (4-56-0/8) experience debuted to a yawn here.
The TV analysts can keep replaying and gushing over his bouncy feet, and he does have quick feet…but he has little heart of body/frame for the NFL – so, what they don’t re-play over and over is Jeudy’s drops (he had two). When Jeudy is going over the middle for a pass…odds are he’ll gator arm it.
They also ran a bubble screen/short pass thing for him, and he gets tackled like he’s a 5th-grader facing college kids in sandlot football. A stiff breeze knocks Jeudy over because he’s like a stick figure body with a S-A-W-F-T play style.
He could improve with maturity and weight room time, but I think there will be regret over what a wasted 1st-round pick this was…even if he is ‘good’. He’s just ‘good’ at best. DeSean Hamilton (1-18-0/3) has similar bouncy feet…that story/ship sailed fast, didn’t it?
-- Melvin Gordon (15-78-1, 3-8-0/3), to my great angst, becomes an RB1 candidate with Phillip Lindsay (7-24-0, 1-11-0/1) out with turf toe.
Turf toe tends to linger and hamper/hinder. I don’t have a lot of time to wait on Lindsay in a split with Gordon. I wanted to believe, and Lindsay was showing a sign that he was pushed ahead of Gordon to begin this game…but he just lost all that goodwill.
The way Lindsay has been treated by Denver (after two 1,000+ yard seasons they pay up for Gordon), I’ll bet Lindsay does not rush back and takes several weeks until he’s 100%. There’s not career/income benefit to Lindsay returning until he’s 100%. If you see better options, and if Lindsay is ruled out this week, it’s OK to move on in non-deep roster leagues.
I’d sell Melvin Gordon hot too, perhaps. He faces four of the best run defenses in the NFL the next four weeks…PIT-TB-@NYJ-@NE. Sell Gordon high, sell Lindsay to the Gordon owner. Bail out of the Denver run game if you can. We might pile back in after Week 8 bye.
-- Denver IDP Josey Jewell (8 tackles) played better than I’d seen him the past few years. He might be getting his career back on track/starting to fulfill some promise.
-- Watch out for Jeremiah Attaochu (4 tackles, 1 sacks, 2 QB hits) having a 10+ sack season across from Bradley Chubb. Attaochu is a great pass rusher, and he really had two sacks here…he had Tannehill clutched and going to the ground and Tanny just flung it away before hitting the ground. No Von Miller…Attaochu is the beneficiary.
Snap Counts of Note:
50 = Patrick
47 = D Hamilton
44 = Jeudy
60 = Attaochu
59 = Chubb
66 = A.J. Brown
66 = C Davis
59 = Jonnu
44 = Humphries
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Packers 43, Vikings 34
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The reports on this game are true. Not much more I can add. The Packers/Aaron Rodgers destroyed the Vikings and it was nowhere near as close as the final score made it appear. The Pack led 29-10 going into the 4th-quarter and then a garbage all-pass shootout erupted to the finish (good for FF numbers if you were in on it).
Matt LaFleur has Mike Zimmer’s number…now 3-0 against him and the gap between the two teams seems wider than ever. How bad was this by MIN? Well, the GB passing game has been regressing for a while now…it only has spasms against bad pass defenses/terrible teams. Well, what does that make the Vikings then…because they got destroyed here? Before we crown Aaron Rodgers as 'back', let's see him against a better defense...like Week 3 @NO. They schedule is very good for Rodgers through Week 11/pretty much all year though...
A lot of young/new corners playing for the Vikings; a needed flushing by Zimmer. It might take 4-6 weeks for the Vikings D to get rolling to ‘decent’, and they need to get Danielle Hunter back…but it might be too late by then.
The Vikings are in a 2020 do-or-die kinda game this week with Indy, at Indy. Lose that one and then three 2019 playoff teams are on the schedule next. The season may be over by the time Hunter returns and the CBs are improved, unfortunately for them. Minnesota has to win this week…but so does Indy.
The Packers have established themselves as the best team in a suddenly awful division. They may go 6-0 in division this year. It should be another Air Raid on Detroit this week.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- With a huge passing game effort this week, I hoped to see Allen Lazard (4-63-1/4) go off with a big game and big targets. But then I saw just four targets…and I got depressed.
And then I watched the tape and realized – Allen Lazard is a Pro Bowl caliber WR talent. He was terrific in this game. The only thing standing in the way of him and fantasy goodness is the target levels. Lazard is now taking WR-in-motion flick/pitch passes in front of the QB, like a running play but counts as a pass catch type thing. He also took a jet sweep here – which all these types of plays are a GREAT sign that they KNOW what they have here. Lazard ran 19-yards on his jet sweep and his pitch pass sweep was 10+ yards as well. A 6’5”/225+ WR coming around the edge with a full head of steam and looking like a great tailback…it was sweet to see.
We just need to see more of it. I think we will, but I always think that…and it never happens. I think you want in on Lazard as a #4-5 WR on your roster because we could wake up in 1-2-3 weeks and he’s a full-fledged star/strong WR2. I can feel it. This game was initially depressing at a box score level, but now I’m hopeful he’s about to ‘arrive’ after watching the tape.
Again, I say, if Davante Adams goes down…Lazard will be a WR1 in an instant.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4-96-1/6) is cute, but he cannot hold a candle compared to Lazard. Have some patience with Lazard for another week or two and see if I’m right that he pops to a strong WR2…a better-than-Darrius Slayton, Darrius Slayton-type WR in 2020.
-- I’d be worried about Aaron Jones’s (16-66-1, 4-10-0/6) true upside in this offense ahead in 2020. Nothing on Jones but I see Green Bay is still into Jamaal Williams (7-21-0, 4-21-0/4) as a pass protector, rotational guy. Still, Jones rules the touches between them…and we got our first A.J. Dillon (2-14-0) glimpses and he’s already the best power back on the team, and he’ll emerge a little bit more each week.
Additionally, the Packers are in love with Tyler Ervin (3-38-0, 1-6-0/1) taking touches too.
Not that Jones is terrible, but that he’ll be crowded out on some touches enough where he doesn’t hit top 5 fantasy RB status as we go forward through the season…maybe he is ‘just’ top 10-15-20. If Jones ever goes down, the Packers will find they won’t miss him for two seconds. Also, note…all these lead RBs are getting paid ahead of free agency (Mixon, Cook, Kamara)…but the Packers haven’t done a thing with Jones (who is in a similar boat). They know…
-- A lot was made of rookie Josiah Deguara (1-12-0/2) starting at TE, but note a couple of things…
1) The Packers haven’t had a good FF tight end since like Jermichael Finley. Remember how great Jimmy Graham was going to be here? No, you don’t…because it never happened. Not even close.
2) Deguara is solid, but Robert Tonyan (0-0-0/0) played the most TE snaps…for whatever that’s worth.
3) It speaks to what a waste of space Jace Sternberger is.
-- Justin Jefferson (2-26-0/3) played more snaps than I realized…he out-snapped starter Bisi Johnson (3-56-0/4), and still not much FF numbers in the game.
Watching Jefferson for the first time on the pro level…
1) He’s not in sync with Cousins yet, and probably won’t be for several weeks if not until 2021.
2) He looks much smaller in the pro backdrop. Looks more average/forgettable, at a glance.
3) He had no business being a 1st-round pick…the power of Joe Burrow made him, as you’re seeing already from Burrow’s pro debuts who was the driver in that situation.
Jefferson is an overrated WR prospect. He’s good enough but way overrated. This WR class was scouted entirely wrong by all the analysts and scouts and team GMs.
-- You’d think Irv Smith (1-11-0/1) might pop this year with the void in receivers after Adam Thielen, but…nope…one catch. We should all be moving on to other lesser TEs for TE fantasy roster depth who actually are involved in the offense more consistently.
-- MIN LB Eric Wilson (3 tackles) only played 56% of the snaps as a starter this game, which is infuriating…but he might have been out because of the passing air raid happening. Let’s see if he plays more Week 2 before I give up having IDP hope in him.
-- Odd IDP item…
Packers UDFA rookie LB Krys Barnes (7 tackles, 2 TFLs) somehow started this week…a guy elevated off the practice squad due to the COVID exception to do such things, he was brought up right before the game.
I didn’t see him as a Week 1 starter coming, but then he only played 15 snaps in this game…but then with those 15 plays…he made 7 tackles and had 2 TFLs??? He’s either amazing or lucky. He actually looked really solid/good. Put him on a watch list in deeper roster IDP leagues.
Snap Counts of Interest:
50 = Thielen
36 = Jefferson
33 = Bisi
32 = Rudolph
31 = Irv Smith
70 = Adams
68 = Lazard
42 = Marquez Valdes-Scantling
42 = A Jones (54%)
40 = J Williams
14 = Ervin
05 = Dillon
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Rams 20, Cowboys 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Well, this went about as I expected…the Rams might be a bit less talented than the Cowboys, overall, but I thought Sean McVay with weeks to plan would outfox empty suit head coach Mike McCarthy, and it was so.
The Rams neutralized the Dallas pass rush with a quick passing game and safe, stable, stoic middle rushing game…and they played good enough defense to stay with/ahead of Dallas and ultimately secure the victory. Either team could’ve won, but the Rams just played smarter/sounder and a bit more energetic.
Dallas’s schedule ahead should be easy enough to get them on track, but if they get caught napping against ATL Week 2…all hell will break loose in Dallas, already. Week 3 is at Seattle. It’s a kinda must-win game for Dallas Week 2.
The Rams are just a very fundamentally sound team. Not great. Not bad. Going to try to stay close and be smarter than their opponents to the finish line. This is not a great Rams team, but their defense is much better than expected and they have enough offense to play with most any team. The schedule ahead is also the Rams’ friend…they could be 5-3/6-2 entering their Week 9 bye.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I watched all the Cam Akers (14-39-0, 1-4-0/1) carries closely…I still don’t see ‘it’. No magical unicorn rookie ways here. Just a guy running straight between the tackles…not all that quickly, not enough mass to move a pile, not agile enough to kick it to the outside. He’s another David Montgomery-esque story to me…
I’m willing to give him more time, it’s still early…but I never see ‘it’ with him.
Malcolm Brown (18079-2, 3-31-0/4) was clearly the best/preferred back here, and he should be for most of the season. I cannot see where Akers just outshines him and takes it away. They’ll always split in some way.
Darrell Henderson (3-6-0) has a hope to be in the split, but he needs to go make a play first (in his limited opps). Sending Akers and Henderson straight up the middle was probably the specific game plan here, but it doesn’t help show them off/show their skills. Sean McVay seems so averse to Henderson it’s hard to hold on to him for FF…but he’s the talent of this group, so there’s that reason to hope against hope.
-- What happened to Tyler Higbee (3-40-0/4)?
Just wasn’t a big part of the game plan as a receiver. The Rams went quick passing and heavy running…Higbee blocked a lot. Higbee played more snaps than any offensive skill player besides Jared Goff. Don’t fret.
Higbee also had a great schemed play where he had at least a 20-yard catch or possibly turned into a 40+ yard catch and run, but a well timed linebacker blitz forced Goff to throw early and off target and it hit a streaking Higbee down at the ankles for an incompletion. Had it been in stride, you would have had a solid 4-60-0 or 4-80-0 type line here. He’s fine.
-- I focused on rookie CeeDee Lamb (5-59-0/6) in his debut. He looked fine. Again, nothing special. I’m not saying he’s ‘bad’…I just think he’s more ‘OK/good’ then ‘great/generational”, like he’s pushed at us by football people. He’s a better version of Jerry Jeudy and over time maybe develops into a DeAndre Hopkins type receiver…maybe. He didn’t look like a big difference maker in this debut, but he was fine.
Lamb was working his rookie debut and generating all this chatter, as lesser-lauded rookie WR Van Jefferson (1-31-0/3) looked just as good/better on the other side but you’re not allowed to think/speak of such things. Van is going to be starting soon, but the third wheel in this ever-declining Rams’ passing game isn’t that exciting for FF. Someday he’ll replace Robert Woods as that go-to strong WR2 for PPR fantasy.
-- Dallas lost Blake Jarwin (1-12-0/1) for the season with injury this game, and Dalton Schultz (1-10-0/4) is not a replacement for FF. The loss of Jarwin helps CeeDee Lamb see more work, actually. Schultz will go most games with 1-2 targets.
-- I initially thought Aldon Smith (11 tackles, 1.0 sacks) was looking spry and ready to go get 10+ sacks this season in his comeback to the NFL…but on the rewatch, I saw a slower DE who looked his age. Still viable but not dominant. I’m taking his IDP projections down some after I spiked them too enthusiastically Monday.
-- Micah Kiser (7 tackles, 2 PDs) is the new middle linebacker for LAR, and he really played a good game…a classic run stopper who showed some coverage skills.
-- The Rams-DST looked really nice overall. More talented than expected with Kiser stepping up and Troy Hill being a better cover corner than given credit. The surprise to me was some of the Rams’ new defensive starters.
Taylor Rapp is now a bench/bit player now in this new scheme/regime at D-C…after a great IDP run late last year. 6th-round rookie Jordan Fuller (8 tackles) started at safety and 3rd-year UDFA corner (poached from the Ravens’ practice squad) Darious Williams (4 tackles) played most of the game snaps as well, outta nowhere.
A lot of new starters in a Week 1 game, and the Rams defense pretty well help the Dallas offense under wraps.
The Rams-DST has a great schedule ahead too…
Week 2 = at PHI with their a corrupted O-Line
Week 3 = at Josh Allen, not a big fear.
Week 4 = vs. NYG
Week 5 = at Haskins (YES!!!)
Week 6 = at SF…suddenly not so hot on offense.
Week 7 = vs. Foles
Week 8 = at Tua
Snpa Counts of Interest:
65 = Higbee
62 = Kupp
61 = Woods
37 = JReyn
33 = Van Jefferson
44 = M. Brown
24 = Akers
05 = D Henderson
69 = Gallup
68 = Amari
59 = CeeDee
15 = Taylor Rapp
54 = Aldon Smith
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Football Team 27, Eagles 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’m going to make a lot of bombastic, potentially reckless statements about things and players from this game…so, buckle up.
I have to begin with the following statement because it’s the lens this game has to be discussed through centrally…
Washington may be in possession of the best Defensive Line in all of football…the most talented, the deepest. Not only are the promising/emerging/potentially great…they may be one of the best Defensive Line groups to come along in years.
The Chiefs have Mahomes. The Ravens have Lamar. The Bills have a phenomenal pass defense. The Patriots have Bill Belichick. The Colts have their O-Line. There are teams we recognize and acknowledge as having ‘bests’ that we don’t question. They’ve earned the label. They are good-to-great teams you don’t want to play because of it. I think we have to add the Football Team’s Defensive Line to the list…if not now, then soon.
Many analysts think the 49ers or Chargers or Chiefs or Dallas has the best D-Line in the NFL, and they for sure are all worthy of discussion…the Redskins are better and deeper than all those contenders. It’s like a historically great D-Line potential. Like get them a nickname we can call them by type of D-Line.
Chase Young speaks for himself. We all acknowledge his greatness/potential. What we don’t fully credit/get is how good Montez Sweat is on the other end…he would have been a top 3 pick if rumor of a heart issue didn’t pop up like 8 seconds before the 2019 NFL Draft. Book ends of Young-Sweat…the most talented duo in all of football, especially rushing the passer. Just lacking in experience.
There are the marquee, 1st-round draft pick names on the edge, but Jonathan Allen, Da’Ron Payne, and Matt Ioannidis at DT are a phenomenal, deep rotation. That’s as good a DT group as there is in the NFL…and they get Young-Sweat as bookends now AND have Ryan Kerrigan and Ryan Anderson in the DL rotation as well.
You wonder why they had 8.0 sacks, 15 QB hits, two picks and three forced fumbles Week 1…it’s not just because ‘the Eagles O-Line is so bad’. That statement is providing cloud cover that is hiding just how great the Washington D-Line is. It’s a weapon all it’s own.
Washington can win the NFC East.
…but they have to make changes to get there, and I think they will make changes (forced to) – but it will take a few weeks before the come around to it and possibly it will be too late. The ‘changes’ they need to make are dire…needed changes ASAP, that I’m not sure they have the guts to make fast enough to seize this division.
What are those changes?
1) Alex Smith needs to go in for Dwayne Haskins (17-31 for 178 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) because he’s godawful. The best pressure front D-Line in football mixed with the worst QB in football (Tyrod Taylor trying to get into that conversation too). It’s a wasted opportunity. I think around Weeks 4-5, after a couple losses and some terrible play by Haskins to cause a bad loss…if Smith is ready, he’s coming in.
Smith would make Steven Sims very viable, and Logan Thomas more legit FF options. Terry McLaurin? Maybe. Not Smith’s style as much as the short pass guys. Smith would give this offense a great game manager…to let the defense do their thing to win games.
2) The need a real running back. What if Le’Veon Bell winds up here? What if Antonio Gibson is a revelation? That’s weeks away on either. No one is afraid of Peyton Barber.
3) The biggest thing besides QB that needs changing…Washington has this great front line on defense and then paired it with the worst linebacking group in the NFL. A house/defense divided will not stand against teams like Dallas or Indy that can drive the ball right up the gut at teams. Also, good TEs will feast in the passing game…and thus Ertz-Goedert with 11 catches for 119 yards and 2 TDs combined this game. Washington is the new Cardinals 2019 in pass defense against TEs, potentially (see if Dan Arnold does anything with that this week).
Washington has some linebackers on the depth chart to go to…Thomas Davis. Cole Holcomb. Shaun Dion-Hamilton…but Ron Rivera is going with Jon Bostic and Kevin Pierre-Louis and I cannot believe he is. I’m stunned…it’s the Miami/Brian Flores backfield logic here with Washington’s linebackers – the worst players on the positional depth chart are actually starting.
The pieces are in place for Washington, they just need to connect them all…it might take weeks to do it…and then be too late for a shock season.
On the other side of the ballgame…we have the Eagles. The Eagles are in trouble. So many O-Line injuries. Terrible wide receivers. But a good defense and so-so/solid QB, but Wentz can only do so much with this O-Line.
A big-time unrest from the Eagles fans could be coming in the next 4-5 weeks…and the fans will demand that they should turn to Jalen Hurts at QB. Why? To change the game off the problematic O-Line. The Eagles are one more injury (Lane Johnson done or Jason Peters done) away from having no real O-Line. They can help neutralize OL issues with a running QB. If you see Hurts start jumping in goal line packages and 4th & 1s soon and he starts making plays…there absolutely will be a ‘Jalen is our Lamar’ revolt if the Eagles are 2-4 after 6 games and floundering, while Hurts is looking slick and Wentz is struggling. That day is coming…could be Week 3…could be Week 10…but the groundswell will happen.
As far as this game goes…the Eagles led 17-0. When Washington couldn’t get to Wentz early, he made some throws to wide-open receivers over the linebackers and corners. But as the game went on the pressure kept mounting, creating INTs and sacks/fumbles, which allowed Washington to crawl back into the game…and ended up winning going away.
You don’t know what Washington Football Team you’re going to get quarter to quarter right now. Is it the sad Haskins’ offensive one? Is it the bad linebacker group one? Or is it the D-Line pressure that creates turnovers and flips the field and changes momentum in an instant one? I could see the Arizona Cardinals beating Washington by 30+ this week…or Kyler gets sacked 5-10 times in a surprising loss to Washington.
If the Eagles lose to the Rams this week…all hell is going to break loose in Philly if Dallas and Washington (and NYG) win and send Philly to the early basement.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Antonio Gibson (9-36-0, 2-8-0/2) looked promising but it’s limited touches so it’s hard to know what he can fully do. He still seems a bit lost and that hurts him if any impediment is in the way to negotiate. He also, for his size/athleticism, is easy to tackle. He goes down like a WR not a 6’2”/220+ RB. Gibson needs more seasoning. He’s going to see work in some games they are losing and probably rack some numbers in garbage time. I just don’t know if he’s 2-3 weeks away or 5+ weeks or a season away…or if he ever ‘arrives’ fully.
-- J.D. McKissic (3-0-0, 1-1-0/5) had a nightmare game, but note he led all Washington RBs in snaps and got 5 targets, just Haskins is so incompetent. He’ll have better days. Just a PPR flex flyer.
-- Steven Sims (3-50-0/3) looks so good…I want to love him so much, but as long as Haskins is there you have no idea what he’s going to get for targets…but usually it will be a disappointment.
When Alex Smith arrives, I want back in…or Kyle Allen…anyone but Haskins.
-- Logan Thomas (4-37-1/8) looked fine too, but again…’Haskins’. Could be 2-15-0/5 next week and no one cares anymore.
-- You’re all excited about Dallas Goedert (8-101-1/9) and you want to play him all the time for the rest of the season…just note that he faced the most incompetent linebacker group you could have trying to cover him. Don’t be surprised if Goedert falls to earth next week or the week after and settles back into a #10-15 fantasy TE week-to-week.
-- Jalen Reagor (1-55-0/4) was not working the slot, he was doing DeSean Jackson like work…bombs away. Made a great deep ball catch, nearly had 1-2 more. Erratic hope for Reagor next week. Great DFS option/hail mary.
-- I don’t care what anyone says…Boston Scott (9-35-0, 2-19-0/2) is a better RB talent than Miles Sanders…in all facets. Doug Pederson doesn’t believe that, but Pederson is about to get run from Philly if they don’t make the playoffs this season. The Eagles have progressively gotten worse ever since their Super Bowl Foles moment. Pederson, like Dan Quinn after his Super Bowl random landing, hasn’t sustained or improved the organization after.
Scott is a similar, maybe better, Austin Ekeler, but Philly is too blind to see it I think. Hard to see when their heads are so far up Miles Sanders’s arse they can’t see straight.
Scott was looking solid here but got hurt and missed a chunk of the game.
-- Should we pick up the Washington-DST now?
I mean, I just called them like the greatest pass rush team of the decade…how could we not? Don’t forget…they have the worst linebacker group of the last decade and shaky cornerback play. The CBs can hang because of the pass rush helping them. The linebackers are a problem.
In Dynasty, with a long-term view…not bad to have them for the road ahead.
Redraft…versus Arizona Week 2? They could consume Kyler, or Kyler short passes them like he did SF just last week and buries the Football Team. It’s a gamble…but Washington-DST will be an all-season gamble. They will have a lot of sacks and strip sack fumbles and pressure forced INTs, whether they get beaten or not.
Week 3 vs. CLE…you like it, but Chubb/Hunt could gut those linebackers.
Week 4 vs. BAL…they will get destroyed.
Week 5 v. LAR/Goff…maybe.
Week 6 at NYG, yep.
Week 7 v. DAL…maybe if the O-Line is still banged up.
Week 8 = BYE
This defense is promising, dangerous but has serious holes and may need time to fully gel. Weeks 3 maybe and Week 6, I’m in for a play. If no other options of note…this pass rush is always an option. But mark my words, the linebacker group and Haskins not holding up his end is going to make this a hair tearing out DST play week-to-week.
Snap Counts of Interest:
31 = McKissic
29 = Barber
18 = Gibson
58 = Ertz
54 = Goedert
40 = Reagor
37 = DeSean
30 = Ward
28 = JJAW
27 = Hightower
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Cardinals 24, 49ers 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
For Week 1, ahead of time, I wanted to play/bet/pick on games where I thought there was a huge gap in coaching in the matchup. With months to prepare, gimme the genius/savvy over the sloppy/weak/dumb. It was a brilliant plan…
I won the Rams outright as a dog with McVay over Ralph Kramden/Mike McCarthy.
Easy survivor pick win of Tomlin over Judge/Garrett.
Harbaugh over Stefanski was free money even with the big line.
McDermott over Gase was child’s play.
On that same vibe, I was even more sure (going in) Kyle Shanahan would wreck Kliff Kingsbury with months to prepare.
Well…you can’t win them all, R.C.
I have to call it as I see it…Kingsbury ran circles around Shanahan here. Better game plan. And more importantly…better team/effort/talent/play.
I want to see Week 2, to see if Week 1 was a hoax, as it can often be…but…
I can see the Cardinals as potentially being better, overall, than the 49ers now. Not just because of this ‘win’. You know that’s not how I roll. It could’ve been a fluky win with lots of weird turnovers/the better team found a way to not win (like the Bengals v. LAC or IND v. JAX)…but it wasn’t that. This was the Cardinals outplaying, outsmarting the 49ers. Words I NEVER thought I would type, but here we are. The Cardinals have offensive firepower…and the 49ers, well…don’t.
Before Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello gets too big a head about it…don’t forget your (-8.0 favorite) Colts lost straight up to the Jags. We all have our losses… But Chris was right all along (after one week) – the Cardinals improved their defensive talent and Kyler is good enough to carry the offense and the O-Line. At times, I watched the All-22 tape of this one with no sound and just watched the O-Line v. D-Line, and the Cardinals were the better team in the trenches…and that is sobering news for the 49ers (but it could’ve been one game, one plan, or wildfires).
It’s potential playoff ticket time for Arizona, and I couldn’t be happier about being wrong about Kliff/his koaching or the Kardinals. I bow in respect and humility to Kliff (for this week).
Next week, it might be ‘see, I told you Kliff can’t koach’…that’s if they lose to the then-will-be 2-0 ‘Football Team’.
The 49ers took a quick 10-0 lead in this game and I was like…see, I told you so. Then the Cardinals blocked a punt to set themselves up in the red zone and changed the whole game landscape/feel and wrecked the 49ers from there. The Cards beat/handled the 49ers, at SF. We’ll see how much of that is – the 49ers are far more inferior than anyone realized and how much is the improved Arizona Cardinals, as time goes on. Right now, I’m very impressed with the new look Cardinals and I’m taking back my 49ers NFC Super Bowl rep. pick…except I’m not sure exactly who to give it to. Maybe the Cardinals? Let’s not go that far after one whole week…
Don’t be surprised if the 49ers struggle with the Jets this week, and then all panic will ensue…and then Shanahan should consider firing his D-C Robert Saleh (being extremely physically fit, shaving your head, and constant fist pumping does not necessarily equal ‘great coach’).
The Cardinals face the heavy pass rush, and nothing else, of Washington Week 2. The quick passing game of Kyler may neutralize and thump the Football Team back into their hole this week…and then a 5-0 start is staring Arizona in the face from there.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s begin, as we do with Arizona recaps the past year, with my heavily personally invested Kyler Murray (26-40 for 230 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 13 -91-1) stock report…
Good news/bad news.
Good news = This is the most I’ve seen Kyler Murray run the ball with purpose and more willing to scramble and go than I can recall vs. 2019. We’re going to get a big year for fantasy if he is willing to run like this all season.
Bad news = This passing game looks a lot like last year’s passing game…a bunch of short passes, not a ton of time to sit and survey and throw. I haven’t seen a chart of it but I’m not sure Kyler threw a pass over five yards more than 4-5 times it seemed.
*now going to look for data to support that, or not* Kyler’s air yards per completion (yards past the LOS the ball travelled on completed passes) was 3.7 yards in this game. He averaged 5.4 yards in that last season. I pulled a random example to compare: Aaron Rodgers averaged 5.6 air yards per completion in 2019, 6.5 air yards per in Week 1 of 2020. It was a dink and dunk festival for Kyler here.
Now, it may have been by plan to neutralize the pass rush…not giving the one thing SF had on defense over ARI (the pass rush front) a chance to materialize. Which makes me think of Jared Goff v. DAL this week, who did the same thing on purpose, so let’s go look at his air yards per completed pass…
Goff bested Rodgers and Murray last year with 6.1 air yards per completion in the 2019 season. But he only pulled a 4.0 in Week 1 vs. Dallas…and he was doing that on purpose. Kyler had the same low number Week 1 v. SF…so, it looks like ‘by plan’ to neutralize the opposition’s pass rush/protect your weak O-Line. If so, Kliff Kingsbury is a genius head coach; like I’ve always said.
It was there, free and easy, so Kyler just kept quick firing to DeAndre Hopkins (15-151-0/16). Why? Because he could. If teams now overplay Hopkins, it’s going to be bombs away with Kirk-Arnold-Fitz.
This Kyler ‘bad news’…is actually not bad news at all, potentially. Week 2 v. WAS is another high-pressure front…let’s see what Kyler does there.
-- I was stunned to see the disparity of touches between Kenyan Drake (16-60-1, 2-5-0/2) and Chase Edmonds (6-26-0, 3-19-1/5). I thought, before seeing it, that they were more 50/50. I think that happened in my mind because Edmonds is better than Drake, in general, and just stood out more.
This is a 67/33 backfield…until it isn’t. I think Edmonds might end up forcing a 50/50 at some point…neutralizing both to 10 +/- carries and 1-2 targets a game. But, for now Drake is the one to own.
-- Christian Kirk (1-0-0/5) will likely be traded before the trade deadline…Arizona will have needs/holes to fill and Kirk is mostly meaningless to them. They could get many other WRs to play his same role. This is Hopkins’s team now.
You want to play Kirk/ARI when Arizona faces a low-pressure front D-Line and Kyler doesn’t have to quick pass all the time, and Kirk not running deep as a decoy every play.
-- Dan Arnold (2-21-0/2) is more important to this passing game than Kirk, right now. Arnold is strongly in the TE2 conversation and potential bye week fill-in. He’ll have a hard time being a consistent TE1 for FF in this particular offense, but he’s going to have a splash game soon and send people chasing into him for their rosters…and then they’ll drop him soon after.
There is upside hope here. He looked really nice in his two targets, the way they use him. He could be a TE1 on just 4-5 targets a game and being their end zone threat.
-- The SF story of the game was the backfield…
Raheem Mostert (15-56-0, 4-95-1/5) played the heavy lead role because Tevin Coleman (4-18-0) had health issues that limited him. Mostert had a kinda broken coverage 76-yard TD. Outside of that, 71 total yards and 3 catches.
Outside of that big play, SF had less than 300 yards in this game.
The big story here is the return of Jerick McKinnon (3-24-0, 3-20-1/5). He looked really good. He was a key part of the game plan. He’s going to be the receiving back and will keep working his way into touches. Mostert’s upside is limited on this…and Tevin Coleman is really hurt by McKinnon’s rise.
-- George Kittle (4-44-0/5) may miss Week 2, in which case another return-from-long-time-injury guy has a spotlight chance to have FF impact…Jordan Reed (2-12-0/2). He only played 10 snaps and saw two targets…but watching his routes and cuts, he looks really good. Really sharp. A steal for SF if he stays healthy.
If Kittle misses this week, Ross Dwelley would probably start, and Reed play a lot more passing downs and two-TE sets.
-- I have to say this…
R.I.P. Dante Pettis’s career. It officially ended here.
A guy so maligned for effort, etc., and then having this chance (with all the SF injuries) to clap back at his critics and show his coaches – well, mid game Pettis sprinted deep, got open by 2-3 yards, Jimmy G. launched one right to him…all he had to do was reach out and grab it. Pettis never seemed to lift his arms to even attempt to catch the pass. In some way, it could’ve been the play that cost SF the game.
That was Pettis’s one and only target this game…and, possibly, this year with SF.
-- Let’s talk SF-DST…
This group was already a bit of a cornerback concern but now Richard Sherman (4 tackles) is out and this group is going to be reeling and I don’t think D-C Robert Saleh has any answers for anything besides lifting more reps in the weight room, eating a protein bar, drinking a red bull, and pumping his fist extra hard for Week 2. I’d almost say it’s time to bail on the SF-DST but they face Darnold, Dan Dimes, Wentz, Tua the next four weeks.
-- Let’s talk about the better defense this day, the Cardinals-DST…
Free agent acquisition De’Vondre Campbell (7 tackles) deserved a share of the MVP trophy for this game. The defense that couldn’t cover the TE in 2019…was a whole lot better this game…I mean, a whole lot better and it was thanks in most part to Campbell. Great game by him.
BUT I THOUGHT Isaiah Simmons (3 tackles) was going to save the day!!! He was the guy who got burned so badly on the Mostert long TD…we didn’t see much of him after that. Not a fan of what I saw of Simmons here at all.
Imagine if the Cardinals had drafted an O-Lineman instead?
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = Kittle
10 = Reed
07 = Dwelley
37 = Mostert
19 = McKinnon
06 = Coleman
58 = Drake
28 = Edmonds
45 = D Arnold
43 = Maxx Williams
14 = Isabella
18 = I. Simmons
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Steelers 26, Giants 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
*I used speech-to-text to set up the first draft of this, so forgive any weird ‘sounds like’ glaring mistakes. I tried to correct everything before publish, but...
This game was interesting for a minute… The Steelers muffed a punt return on their very first touch of the 2020 season and set the Giants up with a first and goal for what should’ve been an easy TD. Instead, the Steelers defense rose up to halt them to three points…a miscommunication between Daniel Jones and Evan Engram blew an easy TD chance, and the Giants took a 3-0 lead. Soon after, after the Steelers answered with their own field-goal, the Giants took a surprising 10-3 lead…and then people started to get worried about Ben’s mechanics, rustiness or whatever.
Just when some Steelers fears started happening, Pittsburgh then scored the next 23 points and took a commanding lead, giving up of late garbage TD. It took about a quarter and a half for the Steelers to get going but eventually the better team won.
I thought it would be a more challenging test in Week 2 hosting Denver but the Steelers got lucky and the Broncos suddenly have several key injuries going into Week 2, so the Steelers are in line to start out (2-0).
I thought the Giants played OK. Gave it the old college try. Good effort. But in the end it was a few fluky turnovers that helped the Giants take an early lead and gain early momentum -- but they never came close to sustaining it and they were never really in control of the game at any point. The Steelers wiped out Saquon Barkley and let Daniel Jones cough them up the required turnovers.
I thought the Giants might be the worst team in the NFL coming into the season, and they’re definitely bottom 10 and maybe bottom five but probably not the worst 1-2-3 in the league. We’ll see.
Fantasy Player Notes…
— Let’s discuss the debut of Big Ben (21-32 for 229 yards, 3 TD/0 INT).
I thought he was fine. A little shaky in that first quarter. It looks like some of the arm angles he was trying to throw from were worrisome…not sure if it was the situation/pressure or if Ben was trying to protect his arm, but as time went on Ben started to find his groove. There’s no reason for concern with Ben’s arm that I see. He looked fine. He looked more comfortable and in control and not playing as risky as he used to in my mind.
— The story of this game really was Diontae Johnson (6-57-0/10), he had quite a journey in this one, and I covered this in great detail on the Tuesday video Q&A early in the show, you might want to watch/listen if you didn’t…
But the short version is Diontae muffed a punt near the goal line to start the game, turning the momentum of this game right away. Diontae also dropped a pass early, and just generally looked out of sync. He wasn’t doing much for Fantasy the first half. Midgame, Ben dropped back to pass and threw a quick strike timing pass Diontae’s way…only Diontae thought it was a running play, and the pass hit him right between the numbers in the back. It was that kind of game for Diontae for about half of it.
I felt like Mike Tomlin was about to bench him. I thought Big Ben was going to give up on him, even if just for the game/moment. BUT they didn’t…and that was the key to this thing and his fantasy future in 2020 – the powers that be didn’t give up on Diontae. Not only did they not give up on Diontae through his struggles, Ben pulled him aside and got him straightened out/pepped him up and then started really going to him with targets – AND THEN even better to Diontae‘s credit, he shook off the weird start and completely turned his game around and made some very good looking plays. The kinda plays you expect from Diontae…the kind of Antonio Brown type future view started to flash a little bit and Diontae led the team in targets when it was all said and done. What was almost a disaster for two quarters ended up in the most future encouraging way possible.
I think our Diontae Johnson lottery tickets are going to start to pay off. Worst case he’s going to be that solid WR2 you can count on most weeks in PPR, but there’s a chance for a greatness breakout coming right around the corner. I was never more depressed than watching Diontae in that first half and never more encouraged watching all of them stick with him and rallying to a nice performance/usage in the second half. Very excited.
Juju Smith-Schuster (6-69-2/6) caught the TDs, so there seems to be some Diontae fears that he’s not Ben’s guy, that JuJu is – but I think we saw that Diontae just might be Ben’s guy…or at least 1b guy.
— Week 1 might’ve seen the beginning of the shift to Diontae as the Steelers top wide receiver, but we also may have seen the changing of the guard at running back. It looks like Benny Snell (19-113-0, 0-0-0/1) is making the hostile takeover I was predicting within 4-5 weeks into the season, only it happened 4-5 series into this game.
James Conner got hurt, as he does, and opened the door to Snell. The focus should not be on Conner getting hurt and Snell now getting a chance – the extra story is James Conner looked terrible, as he does, and is not playing at an NFL starting level. It’s not like Christian McCaffrey got hurt and Mike Davis looked good in relief, and now we speculate Davis is starting going forward -- no one would think McCaffrey’s going to the bench off of minor injury. But we can believe it with Conner because, as I said for 2+ years, Conner is not that good of a running back. He does not have the juice in his legs to be a serious, impact NFL starter. He’s OK. He can be a third string fill-in guy. He’s not a number one.
The Steelers insist that he is a #1 lead back because he tugs at the heartstrings with his incredible personal background story. I hate to be a callous jerk, but I have to when it comes to football and making money – I don’t want to hear about Conner’s heartwarming story anymore, I want the focus to be on the fact that he has no business starting in the NFL and it’s killing the Steelers offense of upside. I’ve got two or three people in my neighborhood with tragic human-interest story backgrounds of things they are working through – that doesn’t mean they should be the starting running back for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Fans and the Steelers organization, and more specifically Mike Tomlin, needs to get over this and rip the Band-Aid off and move on.
Now, with that said, I know what will happen – the second he can return he will be right back starting as the supposed bell cow. Mike Tomlin is not gonna allow himself to be embarrassed here. He’s going to show you how smart he is and how dumb we are for thinking anything otherwise on Conner. But eventually football wins and losses will win out and Tomlin will have no choice but to turn his back on Conner.
The problem for Mike Tomlin is that he’s selected an alternative with Benny Snell, who’s not all that much better than Conner. What NFL coaches see in certain running backs, like Mike Tomlin, like Pete Carroll, like what Brian Flores has wrought RB devastation in with Miami…I have no idea what they see. But I’ve been doing this long enough to know they are not helping their offenses with what they’re doing with slow non-agile running backs who can’t evade hits well because of their speed/agility and they are fumble and injury prone because of it. Conner is the embodiment of that. Benny Snell may be in store for the same future.
Tomlin will give Conner another shot or ten, so your Benny Snell stock will be a shaky hold once Conner returns…but eventually this will be Snell as a lead running straight ahead making basic plays and being the lead dog RB for the Steelers – and that’s valuable thing to see whether it’s aesthetically pleasing or not.
What I’m hoping is that Conner ends up on IR or something and is totally out-of-the-way, and then we get to the Benny Snell era Tomlin will force on us… But then I’m secretly watching what might be the last best chance for Jaylen Samuels to show he’s the best all-around running back on the Steelers. He got a few touches in this game and he looks fine/good. I know he’s better than Conner or Snell. He may have some personal issues that causes Mike Tomlin to hate him, but his play may end up forcing everyone’s hand at some point.
It’s also possible Le’Veon Bell‘s gonna wind up back here, but there’s a lot of time between now and Week 5 for many things to develop in the Steelers backfield. But the Le’Veon to Pittsburgh reunion just took a step closer based on the Conner flop and Le’Veon on the shelf for a bad Jets team.
— Darius Slayton (6-102-2/9) scored two TDs and I barely own him in any league I’m associated with, so it was nothing but frustration watching it occur against my fantasy teams in various places.
I walked away from the live watch thinking – damn, that Darius Slayton and his lucky TDs. But after the rewatch, I started to realize I might be the idiot here.
First off, I should know better than whenever a player I’m not into one way or the other starts having some consistent production in touchdowns catches…I can only say it’s lucky or situational so many times before I should realize at a certain point it’s not luck.
Secondly, when I watched this game tape assuming it was more fortuitous Slayton…I instead saw a Slaton I’ve never seen before. All last year, Slaton struggled being a real wide receiver all over the field. His specialty was going deep and making plays on jump ball tight throws. He wasn’t much for strong routes and great hands in the interior. And that was my vision of him going into 2020 -- guy who makes some random good plays working with a QB that I don’t trust equals not excited for Fantasy.
However, in this Week 1 game I saw Slayton working the interior of the field like a boss. I saw some tremendous #1 wide receiver plays that I’ve never seen from Slayton before. I could’ve just missed it in my scouting bias. Or he may just have taken this game to another level in the off-season. Whatever it is – I saw a Pro Bowl level, star wide receiver in Darius Slayton in Week 1.
Now, before we all get excited and try to go and trade for him – it’s not the greatest time to go make a move coming off a two TD game. However, I think most people don’t value Slayton as any more than a good, useful WR for FF on a shaky team/offense. Despite the big game, he still kind of flies under the radar. If you want in on him, you might be able to sneak in under the guise of someone thinking they’re selling him high to you, but they don’t sell it high enough because they think they’re committing a bank robbery as it is.
Of course, if Slayton goes 3-30-0/7 next week…the price will be in half and you can get much easier. Just note…keep your eye on Slayton developing into a legit, strong WR1.5 WR now.
-- Darius Slayton was more impressive than Saquon Barkley (15-6-0, 6-60-0/9)…another rushing ‘gem’ from the one with great quads.
It’s not Saquon’s fault…this is what happened to David Johnson in 2018. Todd Gurley 2017. Bad offense. Bad coaching. Everyone knows they are running the ball. Teams stack 10 in the box. The offense runs right into it anyway. Also, see: Leonard Fournette 2019. But we malign David Johnson and Fournette for it for years…while we make excuse after excuse for Saquon, because he has funny/huge quads.
Are you sure Saquon is as great as they say he is? Just sayin’…
I could get Nyheim Hines to give me the non-TD numbers Saquon put up this game.
-- Evan Engram (2-9-0/7) had an FF-dud. Come to me, and I’ll buy all his stock from you at half price. Let me have it.
Engram nearly had the game’s first TD (off the muff punt event). He had a sweet 25-yard grab, called back for a shaky P.I. and had another end zone shot not work out later. Just an unlucky game, of sorts, for Engram.
Go and buy low, like he’s a #10-12 TE not a top 5 monster. I have confidence in Engram being a TE1 this year worst case, but a possibly top 3 scorer overall at TE.
-- A player who didn’t have an unlucky game…Chase Claypool (2-39-0/2, 1-8-0). Wow. The best-looking rookie WR Week 1 to my eyes, and he’s just getting started.
In 2020, Claypool is going to be a WR3-4, flex hope in BYE weeks ahead. Random up and down games based on him not really being a starter but playing near starter snaps.
In 2021, the WR group of Diontae, Claypool, and Washington will be the best WR trio in football.
Claypool got better treatment as a backup than Bryan Edwards did as the main snap WR starter.
We will look back at Claypool, Pittman, Edwards, possibly Mims and Duvernay will be seen as the best WRs from this bumper crop class…and Lamb-Jeudy-Ruggs-Jefferson-Aiyuk-Reagor will be seen as ‘mistakes’ by comparison.
-- IDP note… Corey Ballentine (9 tackles) is starting at corner for the Giants, and he’s a very aggressive, tough-minded corner. He can tackle like a safety playing corner. He’s going to be nice for IDP all season, I think.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Engram
58 = Slayton
53 = Shepard
55 = Diontae
55 = JuJu
37 = Washington
19 = Claypool
40 = Ebron
38 = McDonald
29 = Snell
20 = Samuels
15 = Conner
