- FantasyFootballMetrics

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 28 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Chiefs 35, Raiders 31

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The mainstream storyline from this game was: the Raiders played a good/admirable game, and had the Chiefs down, but Patrick Mahomes made magic at the end and pulled out a win we all thought KC would retaliate on LV…everyone walks away loving KC, as they did walking in.

I walked away with a different take…

Everyone assumed KC would come into this game, blow out the Raiders, and gain vengeance for Las Vegas daring to beat/upset them earlier in the year. Had KC won this game like 40+ to 14, then that assumption going into the game would have held true in reality/outcome.

That’s not what happened.

Instead, the ‘supposed’ (by the masses and media) inferior Raiders jumped on KC right away…a 7-0 lead after the first drive. KC tied it, as they do…Vegas came right back with a TD to take the lead. KC tied it up after that, as they do…and then Vegas hit a field goal to go into halftime with a 17-14 lead.

After a half, there was no blowout…but more importantly, the Raiders not playing in fear of the big, bad Chiefs. For the second time in a row they came out firing, not trying to run heavy and hide from Mahomes – they decided to go toe-to-toe.

After the half, in the 3rd-quarter, KC stole the lead back 21-17…Las Vegas answered to go up 24-21. The Chiefs answered that with 5 minutes left…28-24 KC. Just hold the Raiders on the next possession and KC wins. We all assumed they would. Nope. Raiders go right down the field and score a TD to take a 31-28 lead with 1:43 left.

Yes, that’s too much time left for Mahomes…but consider the Raiders whacked KC a few weeks ago. And they just went punch for punch with KC for 58+ minutes, to this point. If the Chiefs fumbled a snap or had a tipped pass pick…the Raiders would have swept the Chiefs in 2020. Mahomes led the comeback, and the Raiders lost and everyone goes home thinking what they already thought on KC and LV.

Everyone in the NFL, and among the fans and analysts are in fear/have huge respect for KC. You know who doesn’t? The Raiders. You know who is going to give KC fits for years in upcoming seasons – the Raiders. Don’t be surprised if the future power of the AFC West is Las Vegas. Jon Gruden is doing a masterful job of NFL coaching and motivating. He has built something and it’s still in progress with Mike Mayock at GM. The Raiders are going to be a future power in the years to come…and they might give a glimpse of it this season once they get a wild card.

The Raiders are now (6-4)…losses to high-end teams, mostly – KC, TB, BUF (and a loss to NE). They have a favorable schedule to the finish, which should get them to 10 wins, possibly 11. They are going to be an AFC wild card because they should land at least 10 wins this season.

The Chiefs aren’t as good as we all think…and I have a funny feeling they are going to get beat up the Bucs this week. I initially picked the Chiefs -3.0 over TB, because I don’t trust TB…but now I’m getting worried that KC’s 2020 is beating a bunch of bad teams and losing to LV, almost twice, and beating a good Buffalo team that was weather-hampered – that they may not be battle-tested like Tampa Bay, that TB will have the chip on their shoulder in this one that KC is not used to facing. KC is likely to get to 13-14 wins…and we’ll see if that’s good enough to get past the Steelers for the #1 seed. It might not be.

What if KC is a #2 seed and faces Las Vegas in Round One? There might not be a repeat title for KC this season.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- The chronicles of the KC backfield…

Clyde Edwards Helaire (14-69-2, 1-8-0/2) is the clear #1…there’s no more debating that with Le’Veon. However, he is losing a few touches to Le’Veon Bell…and more importantly, he is nowhere to be found in the hurry up offense before the half/clock winding down or in the final drive hurry up at the end. The hurry up is Darrell Williams’ (3-22-0/3) time.

CEH is just a garden variety lead back seeing 13-16 touches, limited PPR work, and you hope he scores a TD because he’s likely not getting anywhere near 100+ yards rushing in a game. 10 games played, so far, and 8 games under 70 yards rushing for CEH.

Le’Veon Bell (7-25-1, 1-11-0/1) is washed up. Strictly a handcuff for CEH, and he would probably split with Darrell Williams 50/50 if CEH did go down. Bell looks like he has aged 10 years since arriving to KC…perhaps, I just didn’t notice it before.

Will KC go with CEH as their clear lead in the future, or is this 13-16 touch a game guy/hoping for a TD going to be a forever thing? The answer to that is huge for Dynasty consideration.

Were 1st-round rookie draft picks wasted on CEH and Jon Taylor? Perhaps.

It could be the new era of the devaluation of RB talent.

Talent doesn’t matter, situation/coach/depth chart means way more. James Robinson might be the #3 back for KC or LV, for example…but in Jacksonville he’s a god, somehow (there’s a reason JAX is 1-9).

-- Speaking of devaluation… The Raiders’ WRs.

It’s Nelson Agholor (6-88-1/9) as the only WR who matters. He leads the way with 3-5 targets usually, but more than that in big/tough games where they need to throw more. Agholor had 9 targets here and the other WRs all combined for 6 targets.

Is Bryan Edwards (1-1-0/2) dead because of this? Maybe. Maybe not.

Agholor is a free agent and I doubt LV will make a big investment if he commands dollars in free agency (and he probably will). The door will open to Edwards again next season. For what it is worth, watching him run routes in his limited playing time…I can see some magic waiting to happen. I just don’t think it will until 2021.

I’m not clutching Edwards with my dying breath…there’s WR inflation/WR opportunity everywhere for the future. But I am not giving up on the fact that he’s one of the best WR prospects from this class. He just hasn’t had his time yet.

-- 2020 season to date numbers for two KC WRs…

26 rec., 34 targets, 411 yards, 3 TDs = Mecole Hardman

27 rec., 38 targets, 264 yards, 2 TDs = Demarcus Robinson

Why do people still believe in Hardman? He might have a blip if Tyreek goes down, but that’s a big maybe. It didn’t happen last year, but for one blip.

Henry Ruggs (1-5-0/1) take a good look at your potential future.

-- Tyreek Hill uptick…

3.7 rec. (6.3 targets), 64.0 yards, 0.67 TDs per game = Weeks 1-6 (the #18 WR in PPR PPG)

7.5 rec. (12.0 targets), 92.0 yards, 1.5 TDs per game = Weeks 7-11 (the #2 WR in PPR PPG)

Some of you are wondering how your previously-thought-to-be dying fantasy team is suddenly winning a bunch of games and swinging back into the playoffs…this might be one reason. Sometimes, the timing of results happens the way we DON’T want it to.

Then we panic.

Then we want to give up on fantasy.

Then we trade off players for picks in Dynasty for some magical future fix.

Sometimes, you gotta stay the course. Many are finding out the virtue of FF-patience with the right players. You could hold down Tyreek for long.

-- LV SAF Jonathan Abram (10 tackles) is the…

Biggest hitter in the NFL.

The most dangerous hitter in the NFL…like he’s going to seriously hurt someone.

He’s the biggest jerk, on the field…he’s drawing penalties all over for stupid, unnecessary hits.

He has 10 tackles in a game in two of his last 3 games.

-- Harrison Butker (0/0 FG, 5/5 XP) has no FG attempts in two of his last 3 games.

The KC offense is so efficient that Butker is losing out on FG attempts. Plenty of XPs, no FGs. That might not be good going into the FF-playoffs if he is your kicker.

-- One important note that came up in the last Video Q&A…

I’m guessing your league is like most I see…all the QBs are being hoarded. They need to be – COVID (or other injury) could take your main guy and then you go to waivers and find Mike Glennon is all. You need two QBs in fantasy, as I’ve preached for years…but eased up on it to start this year, but went right back into it early on – because I saw the supply run on toilet paper/QBs in the pandemic.

Maybe you have Mahomes, and you passed on Herbert or whatever early on off waivers because you weren’t worried. Matt Stafford was going to be good enough.

Well, he hasn’t been.

As a Mahomes owner, who built the team around him…are comfortable with your Plan B ahead if he goes down?

Let me throw out this idea – you could just go with Matt Moore (hero fill-in last year), but that’s assuming he’s the ‘handcuff’. Moore is on the practice squad, currently, as probably a roster saving maneuver (so as not to carry 3 QBs). Chad Henne is the rostered backup, but Moore was the option they did last year. So, it’s an idea to grab Mahomes’s handcuff -- but then are we really sure it’s Moore or Henne, in a crisis…is the issue.

The answer to that, I really do not know. But I mentioned it Thursday and just wanted to kick it around a little more.

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Link to Amazon main page: https://www.amazon.com/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=tfawesbite11-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=44051c116edf4a75e87f1aae12955357&camp=1789&creative=9325

Snap Counts of Interest:

44 = Jacobs

15 = Booker

44 = Agholor

32 = Ruggs

20 = Renfrow

09 = Bryan Edwards

40 = CEH

20 = Le’Veon

20 = Darr Williams

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 27 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Browns 22, Eagles 17

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

If you ever wanted to watch a game where two equally matched (roughly) teams with must-win type motivations played a game – and you wanted to see what one team playing confident, smart, tough football could do to an equal talent team who played skittish, unenthused, bad football…watch this game. The Eagles scored a TD with 0:30 left to make this look closer than it was.

I was very impressed with the Browns here. I’ve been a Browns 2020 skeptic, but this game really caught my eye…granted, the Eagles are falling off a cliff…it may not be as reasonable of a litmus test as I think it is. The Browns played smart/tough football, in the rain. Baker Mayfield is a smart quarterback…he is (potentially) going to lead this team to the playoffs, for everyone who called him a bust – he might actually get the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs in our lifetimes/right now. He’s not carrying them with big passer tallies, he’s actually doing something people didn’t think he could or would – he’s managing the game (no picks in his last three games…but not TD passes either).

Nick Chubb is not carrying this team, Baker is…Chubb is getting one big run per game, and a lot of 0-2 yard runs otherwise, but due credit for a big run per game (a 54-yarder here). Chubb has also been out half the season. The defense was without Myles Garrett but played a great game with 11 QB hits and 5 sacks. This was an ‘all facets playing solid’ type victory.

Most credit due to Head Coach Kevin Stefanski. To come into the Cleveland organization and inherit this motley crew with a culture of losing…and now have them winning via sound football. You have to tip your hat to the coach. I’d also point out, the team is (3-1) since OBJ was lost for the season.

As impressively solid as the Browns were, the Eagles were the opposite – maybe one of the worst games of quarterback play, from a supposed ‘top guy’, we’ve seen in 2020. More on that in a moment. Wentz is killing the heart of this team…they are starting to look defeated behind Wentz, where the Browns have a quiet confidence/belief behind Baker.

If Kevin Stefanski gets credit for the Browns success/vibe, then Doug Pederson deserves the same for the Eagles fall from grace. Wentz is not a leader, and he’s losing confidence himself as we go – some of that, Pederson is to blame for mismanaging his psyche. I think we’re to the point that if the Eagles don’t win the NFC East…Pederson, and Wentz, might be out. Pederson fired; Wentz benched in 2021 by the new coach (the Eagles will have a hard time trading him with his contract…for which the GM should also be fired).

The Eagles fall to (3-6-1) with this loss, and as of this writing it puts them technically behind (now) a (4-7) Washington team. Philly is playing for its life vs. Seattle and I just don’t see any fire with the Eagles to think they’ll win that game. If they lose this week…they likely lose to at GB and NO after that to fall to (3-9-1). They’d have to win out to get to 6 wins…at ARI, at DAL, WASH. The Eagles have the upper hand to win the division due to the tie on their books, because 6 wins should win this division – but I really don’t know that the Eagles will get to 6 wins.

Cleveland rises to (7-3), they are ahead of the Baltimore Ravens in the division/playoff ranks, unbelievably. They play at JAX this week, which should mean they will be (8-3) after Week 12. It’s probably going to take 10 wins for an AFC wild card…if CLE beats at JAX, and then at NYG, at NYJ in a few weeks…there’s 10 wins, and they can lose all the rest of their games to go. Week 13 at TEN is a huge game for them and the playoffs. If the Browns win that game, they’d hold a tiebreaker over Indy AND Tennessee, and that may be the difference of in/out among them in the wild card. We project the Browns finish with 9 wins and are scrapping for that final wild card.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- What I think I saw with Carson Wentz (21-35 for 235 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs, 3-10-0) here…

Very nervous, very indecisive. He’s playing like a scared rookie. He’s playing like a guy under constant criticism and it’s getting to him. There’s guys open all over and Wentz is jumpy feet-ing around and tell-tale tapping the ball several times before throwing, or just pulling it down and running (when there are people open right in front of him). He threw a few passes that were unfathomable that a guy with his experience would throw. If he were a lesser named QB, he would’ve been benched by other coaches in-game…it was that bad.

Look at Travis Fulgham’s line here and remember just a few weeks ago these two were like the new great duo in the NFL…1 catch for 8 yards on 7 targets.

Alshon Jeffrey…Wentz tried to force it to him twice, once for the worst throw/INT of 2020 – in the game, 2 targets, no catches.

The only thing that looked somewhat comfortable was Went to Dallas Goedert (5-77-1/6)…and that was a late, short TD pass away from being ‘meh’ for Goedert.

There is a Carson Wentz problem here, but we’ve seen decent Wentz before…he can snap out of this potentially…but time is ticking, and it’s taking down all the surrounding weapons with it for FF.

-- Speaking of Dallas Goedert (5-77-1/6)…he looked really nice here. The movement skills are back. He’s looking like the ‘next Gronk’ again.

The problem for getting too excited about it for FF is…

1) Wentz is really scuffling right now.

2) Zach Ertz might be back Week 12, if not…then definitely Week 13…and that creates options and confusion for Goedert getting top targeting.

-- Nick Chubb (20-114-0) is doing a Damien Harris thing…looks great, rushing for 100+ all the time, but with no targets, if he doesn’t get a TD – then who cares for FF? Chubb got 11.4 points here. Kareem Hunt (13-11-1, 1-10-0/1) had terrible output but scored 8.1 points, 9.1 PPR because he was in for the TD.

Couple of notes on Chubb…

1) Chubb looks great running the ball, but defenses really push up on him. And why not? He played 30 snaps and ran the ball 20 times. Pretty good guess what CLE is doing when Chubb is in.

2) Which makes me think…

Chubb looks really quick, evasive and strong running the ball…and so does Damien Harris/NE. Harris is a star running below the radar…but with Belichick rotation worries. This Chubb note is really about how impressed I am with Harris (and Chubb looks terrific too).

3) Hunt played 36 snaps to Chubb’s 30, second game in a row Hunt played more snaps.

4) Chubb has not caught a pass since Week 3.

5) Chubb has not had more than 1 target in a game all year.

6) Chubb had a 54-yard run in this game, and that 59-yard one at the end of Week 11 where he went out of bounds on purpose vs. scoring a TD late. Takeaway those two runs and Chubb has rushed 37 times for 127 yards total, just 3.43 yards per carry on all his other work. Not great.

Chubb is great and an RB1 threat every week, but there is some risk in his numbers with his non-targeting. He truly has been an RB2 more than RB1 since Kareem Hunt started playing together with him last season.

Kareem Hunt is an RB1 threat with RB2 numbers working with Chubb as well. He’s not a backup/low snap count rotational – it’s a 50-50 split with these guys, in a sense…with Hunt in on the passing activity almost always.

-- Baker Mayfield (12-22 for 204 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) played the prettiest terrible FF game you’ll ever witness. In the rain, Baker looked so not-bothered by the cold/wet and is seeing the field so well and is moving in the pocket nicely – he’s playing with a controlled confidence versus a childish confidence. He’s really matured in a year.

Baker may be a very good NFL QB who is a perpetual QB2 in this offense, climate, etc. He doesn’t need to be unleashed to run his Oklahoma offense.

…but the good news is he could if needed by the Browns, which makes them a bit dangerous in the playoffs.

-- I still think Rashard Higgins (3-65-0/4) is Baker’s #1 look now, his favorite guy to throw to…not Jarvis Landry (2-23-0/2) – and it’s all being hidden because the Browns keep having bad weather games with low passing needs/output.

Since OBJ went down, from Week 7 on…

3.3 rec. (4.3 targets), 59.3 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = Higgins

3.3 rec. (5.8 targets), 38.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = Landry

Do you know how many TD catches Jarvis Landry has this season?

Zero.

He has 1 TD catch with Baker in his last 15 games (back to 2019).

Higgins has 2 TDs this season.

-- Two IDP notes…

1) PHI rookie LB Davion Taylor (3 tackles) drew his first start but played just 21% of the snaps. The Eagles seem to be bringing him up to speed slowly and it’s getting to the point he might start soon. I’m on the fence on whether he’s IDP worthy or not. Really good player but might be better for the NFL than FF.

2) CLE DE Olivier Vernon (5 tackles, 3.0 sacks, 3.5 TFLs, 4 QB hits) has woken up…

0.0 sacks, 2 QB hits through Week 7 (5 games played).

5.0 sacks, 6 QB hits, 5.0 TFLs the past three games.

Snap Counts of Interest:

36 = Hunt

30 = Chubb

48 = Hodge

40 = Higgins

38 = Landry

65 = Fulgham

63 = Reagor

46 = Ward

05 = Jeffrey

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 27 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Jaguars 27, Steelers 3

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The score of this game speaks for itself. The Jaguars are terrible from top-to-bottom and have a growing injured reserve list. The Steelers are undefeated. The only thing weird about the 27-3 score was…why wasn’t more like 40+ to 3? The Steelers played like they knew they were going to win. They had their foot halfway down on the pedal and coasted to a victory.

The Steelers are now (10-0) and are possibly getting a break to go undefeated this whole season – considering all the COVID issues for this week’s game vs. Baltimore, which was one of two real tests for the Steelers remaining. That game is either going to get cancelled or they will face the Ravens without Lamar Jackson, among others, playing. Assuming they play this week, we project the Steelers to finish (14-2), with (15-1) obtainable…and possibly get the #1 seed in the AFC.

The Jaguars are now (1-9) and are the worst team in the NFL…batting for that spot with the Burrow-less Bengals. Jacksonville is trying to lose, I am convinced of that (more on why in a moment)…and they will go (1-15) and have a shot at the #1 pick/Trevor Lawrence. The Jets hold all the cards to get the #1 pick, but I think the Jets will win a game…but the Jets have the tiebreaker edge it appears (strength of schedule). The Jets need to win two games and the Jags need to lose out to be sure for Jacksonville to get the #1 pick.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- You know the Jags are tanking because they announced Mike Glennon would start over Jake Luton (16-37 for 151 yards, 0 TDs/4 INTs) Week 12.

What was Luton’s crime? Almost winning his last two games prior to this but struggling against, arguably, the top ranked defense in the NFL? If you were running the Jaguars, and the NFL Draft order didn’t matter in decisions, you would start Luton the rest of the season (assuming Minshew out) to see what you had. You would have absolutely no interest in Glennon playing. Luton, for his part, has shown he has some skills. It’s not like he has been terrible in his three starts…just this one, but there was a good reason (the Steelers). So, starting Luton this week makes sense…right?

Nope. The Jags were looking for a reason to make a change, to get worse, and Luton/the Steelers defense gave them one.

What happens to the Jags under Glennon?

Everything declines. It’s an offense that goes from bad to worse. Glennon has cement shoes for escapability in the pocket, and the Jaguars cannot protect well as it is. Glennon is a QB that would’ve been desired 10-15 years ago. Tall. Decent skills. Runs the playbook. He would have been a mediocre QB in 2010, but he’s downright awful in the new era of quick passing and moving around. He’s a dinosaur.

The change to Glennon doesn’t help James Robinson (17-73-0, 2-21-0/2) because defenses can focus on him at will.

It doesn’t D.J. Chark (4-41-0/8) much because Glennon won’t have time or the arm/quick release to get it to him well. However, if Glennon has time…he’s not a bad downfield passer. He’s so likely top be under duress that you can only hope Glennon blindly lofts one-on-one bombs to Chark, and DJC can make something out of one or two of them.

Everything was already bad with the Jags…now it’s worse/random.

-- The Steelers’ WR report…

Diontae Johnson (12-111-0/16) is now CLEARLY the volume target for Ben. He’s like his poor man’s Davante Adams connection (without the mass TDs). Diontae is the #5 PPR PPG WR since Week 9.

If you look at only the games that Diontae has played 50%+ of the game in (7 games) this season, he has averaged: 6.9 rec., 77.0 yards, 0.57 TDs per game…18.02 PPR PPG – that pace would make him the #9 PPR WR for the season. The Jimmy Smith/Baltimore shutdown event away from being top 5 for the season.

Diontae is Ben’s volume guy, but Chase Claypool (4-59-1/8) is his money man. Ben is taking several deep shots per game to CC, on top of normal type targeting.

Since Week 5, Claypool is the #7 PPR PPG WR in fantasy, and the #4 in non-PPR…a hair behind D.K. Metcalf.

I hate the matchup with the Ravens for both WRs if Jimmy Smith is active, but as the Ravens lose players with COVID and if Smith is just out on his injury…it could be some bomb’s away on Baltimore with Diontae and Claypool.

-- James Conner (13-89-0, 3-10-0/3) isn’t great, but I can tell you this…

Bennie Snell (7-15-1) looks terrible.

Anthony McFarland (3-3-0) can’t get past the line of scrimmage without going down.

I am looking for the heir to free agent Conner…but I don’t see one here, yet.

-- Rookie CB Chris Claybrooks (10 tackles) has been forced into action with all the DB injury decimation for the Jags. He’s not ready for this, and he’s going to get picked on…but that means he should get decent tackle totals for being around the ball/WRs catching it on him constantly.

*Shopping Online with Amazon this Holiday Season? Who isn’t?

Did you know if you click through the Amazon link from the FFM homepage (our partners/shop with us area) it doesn’t change your online shopping experience or cost you any money but somehow the big brother technology credits FFM with helping with the sale and we gets some of Jeff Bezos’s scraps from his solid gold dinner table to help support the FFM efforts and fund our own future technology improvements? It’s one click away, nothing else needed or to register. Thank you for your consideration!

Link to Amazon main page: https://www.amazon.com/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=tfawesbite11-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=44051c116edf4a75e87f1aae12955357&camp=1789&creative=9325

Snap Counts of Interest:

41 = J Robinson

13 = Ogunbowale

04 = Ozigbo

52 = Conner

10 = Snell

05 = McFarland

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 27 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Chargers 34, Jets 28

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Just when you think the Chargers can’t get anymore embarrassing, then they go out and win this game.

It’s a ‘win’ that’s a ‘loss’ in my book…how Anthony Lynn is not fired right now is beyond me. Heck, he’ll probably keep his job another season. He’s fleeced the NFL, like so many NFL coaches – he’d be a better high school coach. Central casting for a TV show/movie coach…not good in the NFL. Matt Patricia is complained about constantly and no one says anything about Lynn.

The Chargers have invented ever-new ways to lose games after getting out to leads for a half+, and in this game they tried desperately to keep their ‘get a big lead and lose it in remarkable fashion’ streak alive, but alas…Lynn couldn’t ruin it. The Jets game-tying chance landed short at the end.

The Chargers led the winless Jets 24-6 at halftime. Eventually pushing to a 31-13 lead with 20 minutes left in the game. No way the Jets would come back on the Chargers in that kind of deficit! Of course, the Jets went on a 15-3 run to pull it to 34-26 with 4+ minutes left, and then held the Chargers next drive, got the ball back and drove down into the LAC territory but could convert.

However, the failed drive didn’t thwart the Chargers from trying to lose it with seconds remaining.

On 4th & 14 with 0:08 left, the Chargers decided to punt…but snapped the punt and let the punter run (from his own 20 or so) into the end zone to run out the clock. The punter ran straight to the back of the end zone and waited and got pushed out with 0:01 left. Instead of running around the end zone and heading to the far corner for defenders to have to chase longer to get to him, in order to run the clock to 0:00…the punter ran straight to the middle back and waited, which allowed the defense to get to him quicker, and he got pushed out on purpose with 0:01 remaining. Then instead of an ensuing onside or squib kick, they kicked it off long and allowed a return…but it was halted, and LAC won.

The Chargers tried hard to lose to the lowly Jets, but they failed. They are now (3-7). Get this – their 3 wins are against the Bengals (which they should’ve lost) opening day, the Jags, and the Jets. Three wins over teams who have combined for 3 wins between them this season. I cannot rest until LAC gets its 9th loss and I win my ‘under’ preseason bet on their 7.5 win total. This loss really would’ve helped.

The Jets are (0-10) but playing better and better…they should’ve beat New England Week 9. They flustered Buffalo Week 7. They roared back, didn’t fold, here against the Chargers. The Jets are going to win a game, just not sure who against. Could be Miami this week.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Once again, Kalen Ballage (16-44-0, 7-27-0/9) was the clear, lead RB for the Chargers. We’re all excited by this, but note his three games as ‘the man’ for LAC:

16.3 carries, 60.33 yards (3.7 ypc) rushing…with his tallies getting lower and lower in yards per carry each game. He’s just not a lead RB for a long period of time. He can fill-in, have a moment, but he is not an every game lead worker. He has always had bad vision and bad instincts/reads as a runner but is built like a mother. He can play physical and get yards with some blocking. Looks like a star, physically, but isn’t one. There’s a reason why he keeps bouncing from team-to-team.

I don’t have a discriminating RB palette right now. Any port in a storm. Ballage has RB1 activity in PPR for now, so I’ll ride it. Looks like we got one more week before Austin Ekeler returns to steal all the gold.

Remember, how excited everyone was for Joshua Kelley (4-0-0, 2-40/2)? He’s now down to 3.0 yards per carry this season (on 102 carries). Some of that is on the O-Line.

-- Just wanted to note really quick…Justin Herbert (37-49 for 366 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) is awesome.

His game featured how bad Anthony Lynn is at coaching. So, he possesses this nuclear weapon in Hebert…and the guy has 290 passing yards BY HALFTIME and then gets scared and pulls back the reins and tries to run it out with his off-the-street RB and terrible O-Line and goes away from the only thing he’s got (Herbert). Which, of course, allows the Jets right back in the game.

The Chargers should just throw every play.

No, scratch that. I don’t want Anthony Lynn to get to 8 wins and stay coaching here and beat my ‘under’ win total bet. Lose two more games, then throw every play. Lynn will probably bench Herbert for Tyrod soon, as was his plan all along…his crafty eye said Tyrod was better than Herbert.

You wanna tell me again that NFL head coaches know more than fans/lay people because they are with the players all the time and we’re not? Lynn saw Herbert all summer…and went confidently with Tyrod. That tells you what you need to know.

-- Denzel Mims (3-71-0/8) was the recipient of the 4th & 9 throw from midfield that ended the Jets drive/chance to score/tie the game. It was a one-on-one coverage bomb and Mims got his hands on it but great coverage and no chance to catch it really.

I point this out because every week it seems like Mims takes another little baby step ahead in trust and the style/toughness of the catches that he’s making. He has more steps to go, but a little storm is brewing with him…he’s getting a little better each week. And I like the way either Darnold or Flacco have been throwing to him in times of trouble.

Trevor Lawrence + Mims might be a thing in 2021 after all.

It’s still early in this process, but there are good signs showing.

-- Ty Johnson (4-17-0/6) got some 3rd-down back/hurry up offense time and saw nice targeting but he didn’t make any magic from them. There is some hope he is in this role again Week 12 with Perine on IR) and then gets some carries too. You’d think they Jets would want to see what they got in Ty, but they will likely go with Frank Gore as heavy as possible…just ‘because’.

-- Side note: Jamison Crowder (1-16-0/4) has kinda disappeared, but he got hurt and missed Weeks 7-8, returned with Flacco for a 2-catch Week 9 and then a bye and then his dud with Flacco. It seems like he’s dead.

However, Weeks 1-6 WITH Darnold, Crowder was averaging 7.3 catches, 95.8 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game. The #7 PPR PPG WR in fantasy. He’s Darnold’s guy.

I mention this because you can probably acquire him for near nothing, thrown into deals (if trading is still happening) – if you want to gamble on him, gambling that Darnold is back Week 12 (or 13).

-- IDPs of note…

Jets rookie SAF Ashtyn Davis (12 tackles, 1 TFL) had his first big tackle count game of 2020…it’s been brewing, as I’ve been hinting for a few weeks. He could close strong for IDP because the Jets are on defense quite a bit.

LAC rookie LB Kenneth Murray (7 tackles, 1 TFL) had his best game, for IDP, in a few weeks. He’s in coverage or blitzing (to no avail) some to take away from pure interior linebacker tackle tallies up the middle. I’m not down on him, but he’s not useful right now…but once Lynn is gone, and he grows an extra year – he’ll be a top LB in the NFL someday.

Snap Counts of Interest:

55 = Ballage

16 = Pope

11 = Kelley

59 = Perriman

56 = Crowder

54 = Mims

35 = Gore

14 = Ty Johnson

11 = Perine

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 26 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Colts 34, Packers 31

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Watching it live, I walked away thinking -- Green Bay led 28-14 at the half, was the better team, and then just ‘blew it’. I thought the Packers +2.0 was a Bet of the Year play. My bias was all from a Green Bay perspective.

Watching it back this week – the Colts were the better team. The Packers played well and are good, but Indy is just better all-around. The Packers are still, secretly, the same team as they’ve been for the past decade – Aaron Rodgers…and random other stuff around him that’s ‘OK’ (defense, coaching, special teams, O-Line). The Packers have benefitted from a great schedule for two seasons now – whenever they get tested with a tough team to face, they tend to collapse.

The Colts were more physical, patient, sound and overcame Rodgers. The Colts ‘discovered’ Jonathan Taylor can grind the run game and eat clock and that they can win with a power run game and good defense…and that’s just what they did here. They held the Packers to just 3 points in the 2nd-half + OT. How is that possible with Aaron Rodgers? Because the Colts have a top 5 NFL defense and Green Bay, to me, like the Bears under Matt Nagy for years that no one admitted until now, are poorly coached/schemed under Matt LaFleur.

Two teams that have a ton of issues from personnel to coaching, but their QB hides/covers it all over from our attention – Green Bay and Seattle. So, GB lost here…deservedly so.

Green Bay falls to (7-3) and takes a big blow to getting the #1 seed in the NFC. Easy schedule to the finish should have the Packers finishing (12-4), but (11-5) is possible too.

The Colts rise to (7-3) and can kinda-sorta lock up the AFC South with a win over Tennessee this week. Indy is projected to finish (10-6) and win the AFC South for us, but if they lose to the Titans this week…they are in a race to the finish with Tennessee.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Jonathan Taylor (22-90-0, 4-24-0/4) was the main reason (on offense) why the Colts won this game. You look at the stat line and go (if you own him), “Ah, ha! My RB1 is back!”

Not so fast.

The case against that…

a) Taylor was barely involved in this game to start. It was the normal in-out-in-out-in-out trio and Taylor running for 0-2 yards per play, and generally no real effort to push or lean on him.

b) Taylor ran the ball well, but not like ‘wow’. He was good. He picked through the trash and made extra yards, tough yards…but there wasn’t room to really shine. He got better as he went, but it was not a dominant performance, per se.

c) The key to this Taylor event/tally was getting 22 carries…he kept getting ‘fed’ and he wore down the Packers, and he started to make larger runs as he went. Frank Reich would have to be committed to pounding the ball 20+ times a game with Taylor…and he is not. He loves his rotation.

d) Every time one Colts RB has ‘a game’ this year, they are FF-trash the following game…because Reich is committed to the moment, the hot hand…not a dyed in the wool, predictable run attack.

The case for Taylor becoming a thing…

a) They got to see what life could be like controlling the clock, letting the defense do its thing, and winning the way they are built.

b) that’s all…just one case.

Which side will win? The side of ‘what do they usually do?’

What Reich usually does is be unpredictable, almost anti-whatever happened the week prior. The game before this, Nyheim Hines was the new greatest RB in the NFL…and he had 6 carries for 2 yards and 3 catches for 31 yards here.

-- The Allen Lazard (2-18-0/4) worry for now…and later…

He’s back from his injury, first game back, plays 60% of the snaps…sees just 4 targets and junk ones at that. He looks terrific, but if he never gets the ball…who FF-cares? He’s a WR3/Davante handcuff…that if you have to play him you hope it’s a TD week.

-- The Robert Tonyan (5-44-1/5) + Aaron Rodgers connection is looking decent week after week. ‘Decent’ in the 3-4-5 catches for 30-40-50 yards likely…and then you just hope he scores a TD to make it FF-worth it.

He scored his first TD in 6 games this game. It’s more TE2 than TE1 work, but that describes everyone at TE after Kelce-Waller.

-- Well, the demise of Philip Rivers (24-36 for 288 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) has been falsely reported by me. Every time I declare Rivers dead (for the past 5 years, I think)…he’s soon to be FF-good. When I point it out that he’s good now, and change my tune…then the demise restarts.

3 TD passes in a game in three of his last 5 games…usually against bad pass defenses (CIN and DET…and I guess GB in that mix now?). TEN and HOU the next two weeks…could be more of the same.

-- Michael Pittman (3-66-1/3) is Rivers’ new #1 WR, but that means…3 whole targets. Actually, re-watching this game, Pittman wasn’t working like a #1 WR…more working like old Tyrell Williams plays from back in Rivers’ Chargers days – Pittman just dragging across the middle, uncovered somehow, and then Rivers dumps it to him and up field the receiver goes with the ball. It would work like 2-4 times a game with Tyrell and sometimes magic happened – as it did here, one time.

Pittman had a 45-yard TD catch and run on that type of play…and 2 catches for 21 yards otherwise.

I watched years of Rivers wasting Tyrell Williams’s prime ability time, so I assume the same is headed for Pittman in 2020 – a lot of 3 catches for 45 yards and maybe a TD but not likely.

-- Tennessee lost top LB Jayon Brown in Week 11, so in Week 12 with Indy facing them…it’s good for the Colts TE trio in the passing game. The FF-question is… Which one?

Trey Burton (2-25-1/5) seems to be the one commanding the most attention. He’s starting to look a little more spry as this season goes on. He appears to be the passing game TE, but that’s been pretty sad results…2-3 catches, 25 +/- yards…but he has 4 TDs this season. He’s a low-level hope for a TD each week. I don’t see a breakout game ahead.

Mo Alie-Cox (2-16-0/2) looks like the most dangerous TE in the passing game, but that’s been good for 2-3 catches for 20-40 yards…and he hasn’t scored a TD since Week 4.

Jack Doyle (1-6-1/2) played the most snaps and had a TD here, now 3 TDs in his last 4 games…but 1-2 catches, for less 20 yards most games.

-- The Colts-DST has been a top performer most of the season…but it’s been on the strength of them killing it on some weak teams early on. They hit a tougher stretch lately and have been pretty good the past 4 weeks, but nothing like what they were for FF. The schedule ahead might be OK because they are a good enough defense to overcome, but there are no cupcakes ahead to face…TEN-HOU-LV-HOU-PIT through to Week 16.

-- The Packers-DST is nowhere near as good as the Colts but facing CHI-PHI-DET the next three weeks might make them a better play, but hard to bet against the Colts and WITH the Packers.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = J Taylor

29 = Hines

09 = Wilkins

45 = Doyle

43 = Alie-Cox

24 = Burton

30 = J Williams

30 = A Jones

57 = Davante

51 = MVS

36 = Lazard

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 26 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Broncos 20, Dolphins 13

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The blueprint for beating Miami…get a lead and try and make hapless Tua Tagovailoa try and close the gap/take the lead back. Basically, if Miami’s defense doesn’t get turnovers and set up Tua in great field position and/or just add defensive scores…Miami is likely going to lose.

The same can be said for the Broncos. In fact, watching this game – I felt like I was watching the two worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. At least one head coach in this game agreed with me, as Brian Flores benched his starter it was so bad. Uhhh, I mean he was injured (wink-wink).

Drew Lock was bad, but Denver ran the ball well and took the lead and just held it from the 2nd-quarter on. In fact, Denver was heading in for a TD with 5+ minutes remaining, which would have given them a 14 point lead, but Melvin Gordon fumbled as he was struggling to cross the goal line and Miami got the key turnover to get one last shot/drive…with Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Fitzpatrick did drive it all the way down the field, but with 15 yards to go, Fitz tried to fit one I to DeVante Parker, but it got picked and…ball game. Fitz provided the only competent QB play in this game. It’s so obvious both of these guys (Tua and Lock) are not legit NFL starters that will be winning QBs…but Tua was named starter again for Week 12 because Brian Flores is insane picking offensive players to do things.

Miami stumbles to (6-4) and the public is left with a lot of questions… is Tua the one who should start? Why did the media lie about Tua for the past few weeks (…on how well he was supposedly playing) and why did they all lie for years about him (easy answer = he played at Alabama, and that’s good enough scouting so the national analysts can go workout at the gym for hours and/or go to expensive dinners out with their giant paychecks for their football analysis…anything but put real time into studying the game and it’s players). I don’t mean that jab as a class envy thing – I mean that as a jab at how little effort they put into something that everyone unwaveringly trusts them for.

Listening to a national analyst discuss football talent is like taking a car to a mechanic who has never really worked on a car or studied auto mechanics before, but they have driven a car a lot…so, good enough.

Miami has two layups ahead…at NYJ and CIN. They should get to (8-4) and then problems arise on the schedule: KC, NE, at LV, at BUF. (8-8) is possible for Miami, but they should get to (9-7) and have a chance at the playoffs…and then I would assume it would be because of a move back to Ryan Fitz that they got a shot at the wild card.

Denver is now (4-6) but their schedule is about to crush them to a possible six-game losing streak to end the season. They probably steal a game and go (5-11) and contemplate their QB and head coach…maybe.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- As previously mentioned, what a terrible game of QB play. If I had to pick one of these guys for my NFL team, I’d go with Tua (11-20 for 83 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) because he isn’t as apt to throw constant turnovers. However, Tua doesn’t create any offense wither…so, I better get a lead and sit on it with Tua. Lock is more likely to make a play to get his team down the field but that is very few and far between. Mostly, Lock just throws to the other team.

For the season, 7 TD passes and 11 INTs for Lock in 7 full games played. That’s embarrassing in this era. He’s not getting better, not even close. He cannot read/see the defenses or coverage and he throws right into danger constantly.

Tua has the opposite issue. He has an offense designed for him that is high school simplistic to keep him out of having to make real throws. In a 0-10 yards passing zone/range, Tua can work – but teams are already figuring this out and are also coming after his constant roll out to his left, as I predicted would happen…and he simply cannot sit in the pocket and make throws longer than 5-10 yards with any confidence. He has poor arm strength and doesn’t process things fast enough for the NFL…he had much more time to throw/process at Alabama.

Both of these guys are frauds.

The best single throw in this game between them was, I swear this to be the truth, was the last play with seconds remaining and Drew Lock just heaved it deep to get it incomplete but the air time would allow the clock to expire. However, Tim Patrick was going deep and kept sprinting after it and somehow caught up to the pass. Even Drew Lock was shocked.

It was a 61-yard completion. Had that not occurred, these two guys would have combined for 292 yards passing and a little over 55%+ Completion Percentage.

It’s possible Tua misses Week 12 with “an injury” and that provides cover for Flores to start Fitz. That would help DeVante Parker (6-61-1/9) for fantasy greatly.

-- So, with that -- take note…the fact that Tim Patrick (5-119-0/8) had a 119 yard day…61 of it was nonsense at the end. His real activity was 4-57-0/7.

-- Speaking of terrible… How is it that Salvon Ahmed (12-43-0, 5-31-0/6) is a ‘pushed’ starting RB in the NFL, a main carry guy with good targets for an NFL team…and Phillip Lindsay (16-82-0) splits time with Melvin Gordon (15-84-2) and doesn’t get any passes throw his way in games ever?

Lindsay is the best runner that was on the field this day, and the best RB receiver as well…and for all that, he’s an ignored split role/backup type RB.

You wonder why Denver is so bad…it’s more than just awful Drew Lock.

I want to get more excited by Lindsay for FF, but how can you when he gets no TDs or targets?

-- Miami rookie UDFA Malcolm Perry (3-23-0/5) is a former top running-QB for the Navy Wishbone system, turned WR/RB for the NFL.

Perry is the perfect Brian Flores guy…limited talent, but a yes, sir/no, sir football captain at Navy – Flores likes to play underdog grinders who have limited talent. It’s going to catch up to him. It’s going to keep them out of the playoffs if he’s not careful.

Perry is working towards becoming a starter as a slot WR now. 78% of the snaps played this game. 2.5 rec., 22.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game the last two games play more snaps/getting more touches.

Perry is limited, as is Tua…so, this won’t matter much for FF…except Tua can only throw in the range a guy like Perry will be in. So, you might get a few 6-7 catch, 40-50 yards games with no TDs pop up between them.

-- Denver TD DeShawn Williams (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks) had two sacks in this game, and I was like…who is this? Not because he was so good, but because I wanted to know more…I was literally like – who is this? I don’t even know/remember him?

He had two sacks but they were more ‘in the neighborhood’ type sacks. Nothing to see here for IDP, I don’t believe.

-- The Miami-DST is a gift that continues to give. Not only do they have the Jets this week, but now the Week 13 Cincinnati game looks 10x better without Burrow. You can use Miami Weeks 12-13, and 15. You gotta find a DST for Week 14 (KC) and Week 16 (LV).

YTD the Dolphins-DST is #4 in DST PPG.

Since Week 4, they are #2 in PPG behind the Steelers.

Snap Counts of Interest:

49 = Fant

41 = Vannett

20 = Fumagalli

63 = D Parker

55 = JK Grant

51 = M Perry

43 = Ahmed

17 = Laird

07 = Breida

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 26 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6 Game Analysis: Broncos 20, Dolphins 13