- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Bills 31, Saints 6
My best bet of Week 12 was Buffalo to bounce back from the somewhat fluky Indy loss Week 11 to destroy the Saints. I believed this because the Bills were ringing up as one of the 1-2-3 best teams in the NFL in our studies/data, but more importantly we saw the Saints totally and utterly dying as a team – a collapsing defense, Siemian as a fraud, and no Alvin Kamara (or Ingram) which means they lost their entire offense…that team going up against a very good Bills team in a dome/perfect weather environment = money on the Bills. And it was. I love it when a plan comes together.
No sense in analyzing this game in any minute detail, as far as the teams and the game flow went…Buffalo took control early, the Saints fought as much as they could, but the dam broke after halftime and the Saints were powerless to do anything about it. Justice was served.
The biggest news from the game is negative for the Bills, a nice blowout win on Thanksgiving gets tainted by the news that Tre’Davious White tore his ACL and is done for 2021 season. That is a MASSIVE blow. I think the Bills would take a Deal or No Deal option to magically make this game a loss but in exchange for keeping White healthy the rest of 2021. To me, most of this season, I was a proponent of the Bills as the best team in the AFC and heading to the Super Bowl. But now I am not. Losing White is devastating. The Bills have a wobbly O-Line, a limited run game, but they do have an ace QB and top defense…well, now that defense is chopped down to size. Now just ‘good with flaws’ on defense. Because they have Josh Allen, they have a chance…the same way KC always has a chance with Mahomes, Green Bay with Rodgers, etc. – but I thought Buffalo was a step better than every AFC contender…not anymore.
Buffalo projects to win the AFC East, but now tighter in the race with the Pats. In fact, I’d say it’s close to 50-50 on the Pats v. Bills to the finish line in the AFC East. The #1 seed hope for Buffalo is slipping away, but still possible because KC has flaws…Tennessee has a huge IR list. The AFC North is a fraud. The Chargers haven’t found their groove yet. The Patriots are suddenly the Bills biggest threat for the #1 seed…and thus the AFC East title. It’s going to be a Battle Royal of flawed teams to the finish in the AFC, and none are better than Arizona or fully healthy Green Bay or fully healthy Dallas.
The Saints season is about done at (5-6). They can’t win with Trevor Siemian. I expect Taysom Hill will take over when he can, but not sure when he can…and it’s probably too late to save the season. The Saints will stammer and stumbled to around 8 wins. They could get to 9 wins if a healthy Taysom gets in Week 13 with Kamara back but that’s the highest upside possible. This is a really bad, fading, too injured Saints team right now.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Just to theorize on it… Taysom Hill (DNP) sounds like he will start as soon as he is cleared of his foot injury, but it’s all very murky. Hill practiced in full all week and then never played a snap here. Either Payton wants Siemian to shine (and he keeps dimming) or Payton is trying to get Hill to 100% along with 100% Kamara-Ingram to make a run at the playoffs…and those things may all line up this week for Week 13.
If Hill takes over as the starting QB, he will be a QB1 in 4pts per pass TD.
Kamara-Ingram run their same duo backfield with no worries with Taysom.
Marquez Callaway (2-24-0/4) might be Hill’s favorite WR but more likely he’ll spread it around due to a lack of real great/obvious options.
-- Josh Allen (23-28 for 260 yards, 4 TDs/2 INTs, 8-43-0) is experiencing some of the same issues Patrick Mahomes is facing…a weak offensive line pass protection and Allen/the QB trying to do everything by himself because the QB IS the offense for these two teams. So, Allen’s turnovers, like Mahomes, are going up and people are concerned week-to-week.
You just have to live with it for Fantasy Football…live and die by them. They are too good when things go good. The top Qbs are having more bad games this season than normal…all you can do is ride them as far as they will FF-take you
The one interest pique I have now with Allen…if the Bills defense is brought down to good (from great), then will there be more shootouts, more offense needed…more losses/deficits and junk passing…versus Bills up huge and Mitch Trubisky coming in 4th-quarter to put it to bed. This could be nice for Allen to have to elevate his output.
Or will the reduced defense reduce Bills possessions and force Allen down, or has him gambling even more (like Mahomes has been)?
That Week 13 game hosting New England is going to be a HUGE tell for forecasting the future on the Bills.
-- There were all kinds of whispers/shouts about Matt Breida (9-26-0, 2-29-1/2) getting more work this game, and it was true. Zack Moss benched/inactive and Breida with his most touches as a Bill. My point on that all week – it’s something to observe/consider, but when has a Buffalo Bill RB mattered for FF in the strong Josh Allen era? They haven’t.
So, Devin Singletary (15-44-0, 1-4-0/1) started…got more work…was FF boring, as usual…Breida was a backup rotating in and was boring (but better than nothing), and Breida got a late screen pass TD. There was no emergence of any big Breida, or sweet uptick Singletary move…which is normal for the Bills RBs for FF.
It will likely be the same Week 13 on…an RB rotation that you don’t FF-care about.
-- Speaking of RBs you won’t care about in Week 13… Tony Jones (16-27-0) had his big debut as a full starter, and he got stonewalled. Credit the Buffalo defense…and thanks to Sean Payton for not involving him in the passing game at all.
Unless Kamara-Ingram go down again…we’ll not be talking about Jones again in 2021.
If you played him…you had to in most cases. 16 carries is a good day for an RB…he just did nothing with it, and then got blocked from targets apparently.
-- We likely also won’t be discussing Deonte Harris (1-9-0/5) the rest of this season either. He’s the best technical WR they have…he gets open on any coverage with his amazing feet/cutting ability…but when he springs open, he doesn’t have any QBs who can hit him with accuracy, so far, so he’s going to waste.
And now he’s been suspended three games for an offseason DUI, so thus he’s useless for FF 2021 the rest of the way.
-- Dawson Knox (3-32-2/3) has leapt past Cole Beasley (5-46-0/5) and Emmanuel Sanders (3-28-0/3) as Josh Allen’s second favorite target. This has gone from a cute ‘he’s available/open in the end zone’ to legit, consistent FF work. Ross Jacobs calling Knox the potential Kelce option for Josh Allen in the preseason had a lot of merit…but I brushed it off because I didn’t think Knox had good enough hands and that they were pursuing Zach Ertz anyway. But now Knox is pushing Kelce for top FF scorer at TE (PPG) all the sudden this season.
The good TE with the elite QB is always a thing not to take lightly…especially if they worm their way into a #2 position in the QB’s heart.
-- What do we do with the Buffalo-DST now that Tre’Davious White, their heart and soul on defense, is gone for the season?
Well, first off…the schedule ahead is more rough than forgiving…
Week 13 = NE
Week 14 = at TB
Week 15 = CAR
Week 16 = at NE
Week 17 = ATL
If NE is now an unfavorable matchup, or even just ‘neutral’…and you definitely don’t want that Tampa Bay matchup…then are you willing to hold the Bills-DST for the Weeks 15 and 17 opportunities? The NE-TB schedule next two weeks could be ‘meh’/weak and then we’ll lose faith in the Bills defense by the time we get to Week 15.
If you can hold on to them to use them for Week 15, then great…but then if Week 16 is expected to be not great then they are no good in three of their next 4 games – how can you hold onto that?
I’d like to take a look at them vs. New England this week…probably on my bench while I stream something else, if available. If they take it to NE…then if you can get past Week 14 with them on the bench, then Weeks 15-17 will be optimistic/favorable. If they get whacked by NE Week 13…then we got some problems ahead. Let’s see how Dane Jackson fits in (but he’s not close to White), and then decide next week. if you need to bail because you can’t hold onto two DSTs, I get it…then move on.
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Singletary
21 = Breida
45 = Tre’Quan
34 = Callaway
27 = Lil’Jordan
23 = Deonte
29 = Ty Montgomery
21 = Tony Jones
24 = Juwan Johnson
21 = Vannett
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Buccaneers 30, Giants 10
Not much to say about this one. The Buccaneers did whatever they wanted to on offense, and while the Giants tried to fight they were just no match. Tampa marched right down the field and scored almost at will. The game was 17-10 at the half but only because a Brady pass ricocheted off Mike Evans's hands straight to a defender. That set up the Giants for an easy TD, their only offensive one of the night.
I'm not sure if this was a return of the Tampa defense, which we've seen zero evidence of so far (they've been quiet bad actually) nor can I think of a reason why they might be making a turn...or the Giants are just absolute garbage on offense because Daniel Jones is a backup QB at best playing behind a terrible offensive line.
The skill position players for New York are wonderful, but they can't get the ball without a QB that is decent and has time to throw. And for all you people out there that think taking Ja'Marr Chase over Penei Sewell was the correct move because Chase caught a few lucky long TD's...the day will come where you won't think that any longer. Teams should be drafting QBs and offensive linemen every year. That's the foundation of a strong offense. The WR's and RB's and TE's aren't meaningless, but you can get by without superstars at those positions if you have a good line and good QB.
Tampa jumps to 7-3 and nothing has changed with them. They are still in the second tier of NFC teams, jockeying for the #2 seed behind the Cardinals. They'll finish somewhere around 12 wins and get a high seed. Where they land exactly I don't know. Doesn't matter too much. This team is more than good enough to go on a Super Bowl run obviously.
The Giants fall to 3-7 and their NFC East dreams are dead. This offense stinks and changing coordinators isn't going to do enough to fix it most likely. I do think we could see a sudden spike upwards this week from having a fresh gameplan, but it also comes against an Eagles defense that has been getting a bit better each week. If the Giants could pull off a miracle and get this team playing to their talent level, they could for sure still make a run at the East with a relatively soft remaining schedule. Don't count on that happening though.
Fantasy Notes
--Well it appears Kadarius Toney (7-40-0/12) is back in good graces as the star receiver in New York. Unfortunately, there's still two problems with jumping on board the Toney train. 1. Daniel Jones sucks and 2. Toney is hurt again. He reportedly has a quad injury which could be a one week thing or it could be several weeks. We'll have to see. In redraft you can probably drop him for the moment if you need the bench spot. He's been on and off hurt and hasn't done much in weeks. Once he's healthy we can reassess his usefulness.
In dynasty you should be buying him hand over fist. Never overpay but this man has rare movement skills. He didn't get many yards in this game because there was nowhere to run, but just watch the way he moves. He jump cuts and everyone else looks like they are standing still. If he can keep his head on straight (a big if) he's going to be one of the best receivers in the league for the next 10 years.
--Kenny Golladay got paid and now he's done working. He's barely even trying anymore. It might actually have more to do with how awful Jones must be to play with, but regardless the connection isn't great right now and hasn't been most of the year. I don't think you can play him with any confidence at the moment.
*RC NOTE: Little confidence this week, BUT with Toney out and a new O-C...I have some kinda hope that Golladay can get overfed targets this week.
--Saquon Barkley (6-25-0, 6-31-0/6) is moving as well as ever, but he's suffering from the same problems. No offensive line and his QB sucks and so the defense just stacks the run. In addition he's now dealing with an ankle injury after finally getting healthy last week. He's gotten in limited practices this week, so we'll have to see if he can suit up this weekend.
--Only two things have changed with the Bucs offense.
1. Rob Gronkowski (6-71-0/8) returned from his injuries and picked right back up where he left off. He's a top 5 TE as long as he's healthy.
And 2. Ronald Jones (8-33-1) is finally out of the doghouse and splitting carries with Fournette again. This is why I said you couldn't count on Fournette as an RB1 the rest of the season weeks ago when some analysts were peddling that nonsense. Fournette is still a nice RB2 due to his receiving numbers, but this is close to a 50-50 split again.
*RC NOTE: I think it’s more 70/30, 80/20 or more Fournette/Jones. This game was under control and they let RoJo work some. If Tampa plays in games where it’s more evenly matched, it will be more all Fournette. If games get out of hand, we’ll see RoJo giving more relief to Fournette for the playoff run ahead.
Snap Counts of Interest
46 = Rob Gronkowski
35 = Cameron Brate
46 = Leonard Fournette
15 = Ronald Jones
44 = Kenny Golladay
35 = Kadarius Toney
34 = Darius Slayton
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Cardinals 23, Seahawks 13
*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.
I remembered this game being more of an Arizona beatdown of Seattle, from the live watch/memory. It really wasn’t, per se. It was a lot closer in ‘style points’, as I watched it back…’style’ a loose term…it wasn’t a football clinic on either side.
It came down to: The Arizona defense is the best in the league, and they constantly saved the day and held Seattle’s offense down…while Colt McCoy played efficiently, and Arizona ‘escaped’ with a win. Arizona was the better team here, but there were several moments where Seattle had their chances to seize the momentum – but that Arizona defense…so good.
Seattle put up a fight, but they just don’t have the O-Line to have any room for error…especially against top teams. Since Wilson returned, they’ve played two of the best teams/defenses in the NFL – Arizona and Green Bay. They lose here and fall to (3-7) and out of the playoffs for all intents and purposes.
If I were Pete Carroll, I’d try and rally my team that if they just go out and win Week 12 at WSH, then they aren’t dead yet. If they beat Wahsington (win #4), they also have HOU-CHI-DET to come…which (hopefully) gets them to 7 wins.
That leaves three other games remaining that I haven’t mentioned…hosting SF (winnable) and at LAR, and at Arizona. If they were to beat Washington Week 12 and then smack SF with the Seattle home crowd help, then they get to (5-7) and then play Houston…so, they COULD be (6-7), winners of three straight, going at LAR with the season on the line Week 15, because after that game it’s very winnable games with CHI-DET. Week 18 at Arizona could be meaningless for Arizona. Seattle has a chance.
All that to say, the Seahawks should have some energy on Monday Night Football at Washington. Win that, and Seattle’s not dead yet – which is why their DST might have hope ahead if they win their next two games (HOU-CHI-DET) on the schedule to come. Never count out Russell Wilson.
Arizona arm-wrestles their way to (9-2) with this win, winning 2-of-3 McCoy starts. They are on a Week 12 bye and will then get back Kyler-Hopkins and they will be the best team in the NFL ready to take on the world Week 13 on. They should finish with 13-14 wins…15 wins not out of the question. Kyler is one of the best QBs in the NFL now. Their defense is arguably the best in the game. The NFC #1 seed is theirs if Kyler stays healthy.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First offensive play of the game, Seattle with possession, Rashaad Penny (2-19-0) starting…and I’m flipping out with excitement at this sudden development. He gets a handoff and blows right past everyone for an 18-yard run and I’m like (during the live watch Sunday): Finally, it’s Penny time!
Nope.
He doesn’t see his next touch until the 3rd-quarter. I’ve heard he got nicked up on the 1st play…which is par for the Penny course, but he looked fine upon his return…so I don’t know that he was hurt that bad. I have to assume he got nicked up. No way they would sit him after giving him a surprise start and seeing that first carry was their best carry by a Seattle back since like Marshawn Lynch’s playoff TD run vs. Saints years ago. https://youtu.be/r18lHPDMNFE
Perhaps that was a little generous to praise Penny’s random Week 11 tote in that Marshawn light…but it’s been a while since you could get excited about a Seattle RB. Actually, it’s been a while since you could get excited about Penny. Every time you do, the rug is pulled.
But…if I see him back practicing in full, I’m in. In fact, you’d be smart to sit on him this week even if he’s questionable or inactive. I think the moment he’s ready to go, he’s going to be the lead back for the rest of the season (if he can stay healthy) – he is the only back who could bring life to this offense. And IF he ever does get a run as the lead – he might be the RB1 for FF at just the right time for you.
Now, he’s more likely going to slip on a banana peel and go on IR the rest of the season – but IF he can take advantage of his 19th chance…running into his free agency 2022…maybe just maybe…
-- Rondale Moore (11-51-0/11) got a ton of short targets, which is what I want to see…but he really didn’t do much with them. He looked good, nimble, but Seattle closed on him with every short shot, and he had little room to escape. He danced around for an extra yard or two, nicely, on various short tosses…but no ‘big’ plays.
I don’t think the Cardinals are now going to target Moore 11 times a game going forward. This was a Colt McCoy thing. Moore was available. McCoy was working safe. Seattle was worried about the outside WRs and James Conner. Moore had a ton of targets, but it wasn’t anything special.
Zach Ertz (8-88-2/9) looked more like a plan, more like a dominant weapon than Moore (albeit in a different way). This was really good work by Ertz…but, again, I think this was a McCoy thing, and a ‘it was there’ thing. And it was a…Seattle not great vs. the TE thing.
Watching McCoy use Ertz and RoMo effectively, made me think…McCoy was using Christian Kirk (2-25-0/4) more his first two Kyler-fill-in starts…and A.J. Green (4-78-0/7) made some plays here – the Cardinals are loaded with options and the QBs are using them as the matchups/opportunities dictate. The Cardinals passing game is not like GB or MIN…everything to Davante or Jefferson. They spread it around and hit you from all different angles.
It’s why DeAndre Hopkins isn’t a WR1 anymore. He’s not lost any skill…it’s just Arizona comes at you differently game-to-game, drive-to-drive…because they can. Having Ertz only makes it more maddening for the opposing defenses. Rondale is just another punch they can throw as needed.
None of them are a WR1 in 2021.
And it’s why Kyler may be the most lethal passer in the NFL these days. Not only is Kyler great, but he also has five legit options to use at any given moment.
-- Russell Wilson (14-26 for 207 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) has no TD passes in two games since his return, but he has faced two hot NFL pass defenses upon his return – ARI and GB. Wilson had his chances here. He hit D.K. Metcalf for a score, but DKM just stepped out of bounds, reversing the TD call. Wilson looked totally fine and normal Russell to me. He has a bad O-Line, so he’s having to work for the most basic of things…kinda like Mahomes and J. Allen and Dak (without Tyron) have to because of their O-Lines, against good defenses. Russ looks fine otherwise; I think this was weak O-Line meets top NFL defenses at the wrong time.
Wilson is due a 300+ yards, 3-4 TD event…and it might be this Week 12.
Snap Counts of Interest:
18 = DeeJay Dallas
18 = Collins
08 = Penny
05 = Homer
42 = Everett
25 = Dissly
04 = Parkinson
63 = Wesley
61 = Kirk
57 = AJG
32 = Rondale
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Chargers 41, Steelers 37
Long story short: the Chargers scored nearly at will on the Steelers who also moved the ball quite well considering their general offensive malaise this year, but they got quite a few breaks later in the game that allowed them to hang with LA.
LA quickly moved down the field on their first several drives scoring each time. They stuffed a Pittsburgh drive at the goalline on their second possession which led to a quick 14-3 lead. The Steelers would cut that lead to 14-10 on their next drive, and then LAC extended it again right after to make it 17-10 at the half. The only time either team had remotely stopped the other at this point was the goal line stand.
The Chargers got the ball after halftime and drove again for an easy TD. 24-10 and the Chargers looked to be pulling away. They stopped Pittsburgh and got the ball back, but a couple penalties stopped their drive and they had to settle for a FG.
Pitt kicked their own field goal a bit later, and the score was 27-13 LAC with about 14 minutes left. That is when things got wild.
The Steelers blocked a Charger punt which set them up with a short field. They capitalized with a TD after pass interference was called on the Chargers during an interception on 4th down in the endzone, and the game was back in question, 27-20.
The Chargers were having none of that though and promptly scored again, 34-20. The Steelers answered easily, cutting it to a one score game yet again, 34-27. On the next drive for LA, a Herbert pass was tipped and went straight to the Steelers who intercepted it with another short field. They scored and it was a tie game.
Next possession the Chargers are feeling the heat. They haven't been able to put away the pesky Steelers yet, and now the game is actually on the line. So on 4th and 1 from their own territory Brandon Staley gives the ball to Ekeler...who is stuffed. Pitt ball with a short field. They need to hold the Steelers to a FG to have a good chance at the win and do. 37-34 Steelers.
Final drive with about a minute left and the Chargers need a TD to win or field goal to tie. Somehow Mike Williams is left wide open in a busted coverage and Herbert hits him for a miracle long TD to win the game 41-37.
The emotions from this game were absolutely wild. I was texting RC during it as usual, complaining about various fantasy related things mostly involving Williams being ignored for 3 quarters (we'll talk about that) and how I should have started Jalen Hurts over Herbert (no I shouldn't have). He was complaining back about Mike as well...etc etc. And then the big play hit and we both pulled out seemingly impossible wins. Moral of the story? Shut up and watch the games because you never know what might happen. (I'm just kidding, go ahead and complain, that's part of the fun and misery of fantasy football).
So the Chargers move to 6-4 and are a half game behind the Chiefs for the AFC West. Can they catch them? Perhaps. The schedule isn't exactly hard, but the game against the Chiefs could be the deciding game. They've already beaten the Chiefs once. A second win could put them over the edge and obviously wins it for them in case of a tie.
Is the team good enough to pull this off? I don't know. Maybe. It should be close. The offense was much, much better here, but they were also beating up on a Steelers squad with all of their top guys out. But the defenses they have left to face aren't exactly killers.
The LAC defense is the problem right now. Brandon Staley is supposed to be a defensive genius, but right now they are getting their asses handed to them. Even the Steelers' sorry offense was moving the ball on them well. It's not a good sign to say the least. If they go 5-2 the rest of the year I would not be shocked, but I also wouldn't be shocked with 3-4. They probably need at least 11 wins to pull it out over the Chiefs. Spank the Broncos this week and we might have a race on our hands. Lose and it gets a lot harder.
Pittsburgh falls to 5-4-1 and things are not looking good. After winning 4 in a row they tied the Lions and should have gotten plastered here but luckily hung around until the end. The schedule is not their friend and I honestly don't see how they possibly get to 10 wins. I'm thinking they land somewhere around 8 wins but less than that wouldn't shock me.
Fantasy Notes
--So what happened with Mike Williams (5-97-1/6) and can we trust him moving forward? On the first drive he was targeted 5 times and RC and I were thinking he was back. He was moving around well, catching it well, things seemed to be fine.
And then he got ignored for the next 50 minutes as Keenan Allen (9-112-0/13) was targeted over and over. On the very last drive Herbert hit Mike for a 53 yard miracle score due to busted coverage. Without that play Mike goes 4-44-0/5 and it's the same story all over. I don't think things are ok. I don't know what the problem is. I saw him being double covered an awful lot, but surely that can't be the whole reason. Herbert was connecting with him just fine on the first drive, so what changed? Why did he ignore him after that?
Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer. All I know is this has been a continual pattern for several weeks now. If we get more of that first drive then things will work out, but I'm not counting on it. Trends like this don't typically reverse course after one magical quarter. You have to hold and hope for the best for now. Mike could be a league winner in the final stretch, but it might be painful getting there. Allen is still the de facto #1 until we see a change in the targeting.
--What a huge night for Austin Ekeler (11-50-2, 6-65-2/7). He helped me pull out my second miracle win of the week, so thanks for that Austin! As long as he's healthy Ekeler has been a top 3 back all year and will remain so.
--Don't look now but Donald Parham (4-38-0/5) is starting to split more time with Jared Cook (3-28-0/5). This coaching staff has to realize what a waste Cook is. Parham isn't a star in waiting, but he's more than capable and certainly better than Cook at this point.
--RC told me that rookie TE Trey McKitty caught his eye with his lone catch here. I had noticed it too but kept waiting for another one to make a judgment on him...it never came. So I went back to watch this one lone, singular catch again, and...it was pretty good. McKitty showed some decent athleticism and movement skills evading a defender. Impossible to say if he's a star or something based on one play, but it was enough to know we can't outright dismiss him in the future. He's a guy to keep on the radar as he grows with Herbert the next few years.
--Not much to note on the Steelers. It's the same old story. Diontae is the ppr god. Claypool is a random WR3 hoping for a big play (he should have had a TD here but Ben can't throw the ball 30 yards anymore so he had to come back to the ball and was tackled short). Najee is still an overrated hack that's going to get insane touch counts to prop him up for fantasy.
The only thing a bit strange at first glance is Pat Freiermuth (4-11-1/7) with such a bad line. It wasn't for lack of trying to get him the ball. He's still going to get a ton of touches and finish as a TE1 the rest of the way. What held him down here was mostly Derwin James being a coverage hawk. Don't worry about Freiermuth.
IDP Notes
--Kyzir White's last 5 games he's averaging 9.4 tackles per game after his snap counts went up.
*RC NOTE = Bonus Commentary on this game: https://youtu.be/pMviPLWUiSg
Snap Counts of Interest
62 = Keenan Allen
60 = Mike Williams
41 = Jalen Guyton
23 = Joshua Palmer
38 = Jared Cook
32 = Donald Parham
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Washington 27, Panthers 21
*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.
This was a pretty boring affair, from a Fantasy study standpoint. As expected, Carolina comes at you with Christian McCaffrey as Cam struggles to play QB from the pocket…while the Football team comes at you with Antonio Gibson (somewhat) and heaves prayers to Terry McLaurin. I could not tell the difference between these two teams – both are very mediocre, play hard, and offer nothing fresh 11 weeks into the season.
This game was tied 21-21 with 7+ minutes left. Taylor Heinicke hit an improbable 4th & 3 pass for a 1st-down conversion, where he shoulda been sacked, but he tossed a desperation fling as he was going down and they got the conversion…Carolina would have likely gone on to win the game had the improbable not just happened. Cam had a shot after that to tie, and then another to lead a drive to win the game – he failed on both accounts…Washington wins.
The Football Team is suddenly (4-6) and has playoff life. I don’t think they can hit 9 wins, so it’s a false life…but they have a small chance, a motivation to keep playing hard this week.
Carolina loses a big opportunity to get to above .500 and solidly in the playoff picture. Instead, they fall to (5-6) and let Washington have a tiebreaker on them if it comes down to it later. Carolina has lost to wild card teams MIN, PHI, and now WSH. It’s not looking good for the Panthers for the playoffs. We project them with 8 wins max, likely 7-8 wins.
I just have to say – a huge game at Carolina, and the Panthers lay an egg. Cam generates spotty offense. The defense was pushed around by Taylor Heinicke and friends…after the Panthers went out and bought an all-star CB group and has been drafting D-Linemen over everything, and in the biggest game of Matt Rhule’s NFL career…they aren’t any better than the Football Team? I love Matt Rhule, but questions need to be asked…especially if they flop to the finish.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Cam Newton (21-27 for 189 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs, 10-46-1) put up nice FF numbers in his 2021 starting debut. Same old Cam…would look good one drive then struggles the next, and when the money was on the line…he fell short. 2-of-9 on 3rd-downs, 1-of-3 on 4th-downs were the Panthers.
Part of the issue Cam, and part of it is…suddenly, the Football Team found its defense – just 10 weeks into the season. Better late than never. They just needed to get Young-Sweat out of the lineup so they could really flourish. Mike Lombardi has my favorite football line of all-time because it is so true, something he said back when he was a personnel guy with the Raiders when he couldn’t understand why the coaches were playing certain players and freezing out others…he said to his close confidants, “We’re an injury away from being a really good team.”
Washington was the worst defense in the NFL…and then they lost both their high-price, high 1st-round draft pick edge rushers, and NOW they’re a good defense – 17-19-21 points allowed their last three games. They face struggling Seattle this week…their run may keep up.
-- The Carolina defense is going the other direction. The Panthers have good-looking, young defensive personnel and they’ve stolen two great CBs (C.J. Henderson and Stephon Gilmore) in trades, and yet they get worse as the season wears on. The whoop on awful offenses. They struggle/are mediocre against mediocre offenses, and they get bombed by good+ offenses (DAL and MIN throttled them).
Taylor Heinicke completed 73% of his passes and had 3 TD passes and no picks here. How is this possible? You can’t have great confidence in the Panthers-DST this week vs. Tua…what a weird statement to write. However, every defense has a letdown in 2021, at least one, so Carolina may storm the castle this week vs. Miami.
-- Antonio Gibson (19-95-0) had another big touch count day, now back-to-back weeks with bigger workloads – but there’s more to this story.
Gibson is working as the main workhorse now, with Jaret Patterson (7-23-0) popping in at odd times in relief to take a series even. But early in this game, Gibson fumbled – his 5th fumble of 2021 (10 games, 154 carries), his 3rd lost fumble of the season. He was benched for the rest of the 1st-half.
An NFL coach’s handpicked, full confidence RB…those guys usually are not benched for a fumble. Maybe for a series, but not for 1.5 quarters. I think Rivera likes Gibson and wants him to succeed, and he knows he’s his best back…but his patience is also wearing a bit thin. Jaret Patterson keeps creeping in more and more. When Washington led late, and needed to run the clock…Patterson was in. Gibson went in late and with Carolina with no timeouts left, 2:00 remaining (right after the 2-minute warning), on a 3rd-down run…Gibson went out of bounds to stop the clock. So, when Washington took the field goal from there, to go up 6 points, Carolina still had 1:50 left to go win the game. Had Gibson gone out of bounds, Carolina might have had a minute left…instead, they had almost two minutes (with no timeouts)…a huge difference. But then Cam didn’t capitalize anyway.
Gibson continues to unnerve Ron Rivera…and I say all this to note, Gibson is another fumble away from another benching for quarters or longer(?)…the miscues are letting Patterson continue to gain ground in the backfield. It’s a very fluid situation with Gibson right now.
-- DeAndre Carter (2-22-1/3) scored a TD for the third straight game. Those opportunities could be going to Curtis Samuel and then some, if he can ever get healthy. Samuel might be returning this week. We’ll see if he can log a FULL practice at all Friday or Saturday.
-- Ricky Seals-Jones (DNP) remains out, and Logan Thomas (IR) is eligible for return in the next 3 weeks, and maybe it’s this week…but I don’t think he will be back for Week 12. If that’s correct, John Bates (3-23-0/3) is something-not-nothing for Week 12 v. SEA.
Bates has played heavier in RSJ’s absence, and he’s averaged 3.0 rec., 24.0 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game in his two games of heavier play. Week 11…he played 99% of the snaps. He’s a good blocker so he’ll be on the field a lot, and maybe he snags a lucky TD ahead.
…and Seattle just got lit up by Zach Ertz last week.
-- Jeremy Chinn (13 tackles, 1 TFL) seasonal splits…
4.2 total tackles, 0.00 TFLs, 0.20 PDs per game = Chinn Weeks 1-5.
8.3 total tackles, 0.83 TFLs, 0.33 PDs per game = Chinn Weeks 6-11
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = Gibson
31 = McKissic
13 = Patterson
32 = I Thomas
24 = Tremble
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Vikings 34, Packers 31
*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.
The Vikings really took control of this game right away…they were on the verge of putting it away quickly, but up 16-3, with the ball, 3rd & 1, with 5+ min left until the half…if they get a 1st-down they could run clock down towards the end of the half (maybe) and keep heading towards another score – so, what play do they call to deliver the potentially huge punch/keep control of the ball way from Aaron Rodgers? A pitch sweep to the single back, who was named C.J. Ham…the fullback. Not Dalvin Cook. You would not be shocked to know that Ham was wiped out for a loss.
After the Ham disaster, the Vikings punted…plenty of time for Rodgers to score, and you know he did…cutting it to a one score game at the half. The Vikings then scored first coming out of the half to take a 23-10 lead…which they then totally coughed up…Vikings down 24-23 with 7 minutes left.
At that point, I’m thinking the Vikings were gonna blow another golden opportunity – but they didn’t. They rallied to take a 31-24 lead. They then saw GB tie it 31-31 in an instant on a bomb to MVS…so NOW the Vikes are gonna blow it, but credit Minnesota for going down the field and setting up for the game winning FG at the buzzer.
The Vikings are probably too far down to catch Green Bay in the standings, but I don’t think the gap between them is very much in reality/talent/execution. If the Pack loses to LAR Week 12 (and I think they will) and if Minnesota upsets SF (and I think they will) – then we might have a potential race on our hands. Sadly, Minnesota always finds a way to not capitalize on things…
The Vikings are now (5-5). If they can dispatch San Fran Week 12, they can win their next three after that (DET-PIT-CHI) and get to (9-5) and really make some NFC North noise. We see them finishing with 9-10 wins and a wild card, but 11 wins a stretch goal possibility.
The Packers could be the best team in football…IF, IF they can get back their left tackle David Bakhtiari from injury and IF Jaire Alexander can get back, but I’m not sure they can…maybe for the playoffs, maybe. Green Bay is very likely locked into a minimum 11 wins, so Minnesota catching them is a stretch. 12+ wins possible for GB and a #1 NFC seed hopeful. If they beat the Rams Week 12, they are in great shape for a #1 seed.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- A.J. Dillon (11-53-0, 6-44-0/6) was in prime position to shine with Aaron jones (DNP) out, but of course the Vikings raced out to a quick lead and were on the verge of really putting the Packers away early on…so Green Bay abandoned the run and Dillon saw more pass game action than expected, but never got rolling as a runner.
No failure on his part. He played well, but the game flow went away from him...forced by Minnesota.
-- Aaron Rodgers (23-33 for 385 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) had a couple clutch throws to Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4-123-1/10) and a big one for a TD late.
Is MVS a good FF play from here? He’s kinda like Mecole Hardman…you always think the ‘other guy’ WR will rack up numbers when the elite WR on the team gets all the coverage attention…but then it never really works out that way, except every 3-4-5 games…and you’re left guessing which games those will be, and good luck trying to throw that dart.
MVS has played 6 games this season. His PPR numbers in each game (rounded, starting with Week 1): 5-0-15-4-5-22. Two of 6 games ‘worth it’ (33%) with one big game (Week 11/here). Even in this game you see the issue…10 targets, but only 4 catches. He’s a lightning strike player that you have to guess where and when the lightning strikes.
Another issue is, what’s left over from Rodgers in a game after he’s done wearing out Davante Adams is not as much as it used to be/what we think. This was Rodgers best game by far this season…not typical of his 2021. If he didn’t hit a lightning strike TD late to MVS, it would have been a really good FF-game, not a spectacular one.
For the past 11 seasons, Rodgers averages around 250-280 passing yards per game, per season. He’s not with the highflyers throwing for 300+ yards all the time.
-- Through Week 11, you would likely believe Aaron Rodgers to be an MVP candidate and the far superior NFL and Fantasy QB to Kirk Cousins (24-35 for 341 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT). They have both played 10 games this season. Here are their numbers season-to-date:
66.8% Comp. Pct., 2,571 yards, 21 TDs/4 INTs = Rodgers
68.2% Comp. Pct., 2,775 yards, 21 TDs/2 INTs = Cousins
So, who’s the superior QB in 2021?
-- Josiah Deguara (2-37-1/2) is making some minor noise since Robert Tonyan went down/out, but he’s nowhere as good as Tonyan…and he’s a smaller TE, a bit player that can be a 1-2 catch a game option. No race to an upside coming that we see.
-- Not much to hit on with Minnesota…they do what they do, run with Dalvin Cook and throw to Justin Jefferson and then throw to Adam Thielen. All three are stars, and they are the focus every week. No new news on this offense.
-- Mike Zimmer has yet to ruin Greg Joseph (2/2 FG, 2/3 XP). He shouldn’t, it’s the best kicker he’s had since he cut Daniel Carlson his rookie season, like an idiot.
Joseph is currently the #2 kicker in FF PPG and is tied for #1 in 50+ yard FGs made this season.
Snap Counts of Interest:
52 = Davante
48 = MVS
45 = Cobb
21 = ESB
06 = Winfree
44 = Dillon
15 = Patrick Taylor
27 = Deguara
17 = M Lewis
16 = Dafney
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: 49ers 30, Jags 10
*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.
The 49ers were definitely the better team here, but the Jags did put up a fight with their defense but penalty calls at the wrong time, injuries to both starting CBs, a lack of offense (Trevor Lawrence is useless) and lost fumbles got the game out of reach by halftime and the Jags have no offensive firepower to even get back into any game in a deep deficit. It was a boring blowout.
The 49ers have now scrambled back to .500 (5-5) and are right in the playoff mix. The 49ers should get to 9 wins and a shot at the playoffs, but 7-8 wins or 10 wins is still in play. A huge game hosting Minnesota this week, one I think they’ll lose and then be pushing more 8-9 wins as a projection in the end.
The Jags had been playing well but crumbled here to fall to (2-8). Their schedule might allow 1-2 more wins before the finish line.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Deebo Samuel (8-79-1, 1-15-0/2) is now a running back. How could we think otherwise? 8 carries and 2 targets here?
It’s cool, and I’m down…but I want to see 5-8 targets with my 5+ carries from a WR weapon. No rush TD here and it would be a WR3-ville.
The thing is…Deebo almost had 3 TD runs in this game. Every time Deebo ran the ball the Jags acted like they’d never seen football played before…they were mesmerized. The Jags completely cutoff the ‘real’ RBs in the run game otherwise…but Deebo was the difference/MVP/unstoppable here. I don’t know why it confused the Jags. There was no trickeration. Deebo literally lined up in the backfield and took handoffs, but Jacksonville couldn’t lay a finger on him it seemed.
-- If Deebo is going to be an RB, of some note…3-5-8 carries in a game…then how do we project/value the RBs? This hurts Elijah Mitchell (DNP) if this keeps up…or if Mitch is out and Jeff Wilson (19-50-0) has to start. Does it make them more RB3s than RB2s for a weekly projection (Deebo + lack of targets)?
Let’s see if this keeps up with Deebo. The NFL trend is to abandon this Deebo/radical-type thing as soon as it starts, inexplicably -- but if it keeps up then the other 49ers RBs are gonna suffer for touches/output.
-- Deebo as an RB did spring Brandon Aiyuk (7-85-1/7) to a WR1 here. Aiyuk’s best game of the year…great catches in tight windows this game. He’s struggled with that this year, so let’s see if it keeps up – noting that this happened against the Jags, who are terrible against the pass as it is…and then they lost both starting CBs in the game. Be careful getting too far excited on this Aiyuk event but do get excited…he seems to have gotten his groove back.
-- Excitement was taken away from us with another WR…Jamal Agnew (1-2-0, 3-18-0/3) injured his leg, done for the season…and probably just cost him a career at WR. Not the injury itself, but the timing.
This 2021 Jacksonville season was a unique situation that opened a door for Agnew to get snaps and targets he would never see otherwise. Now, he’ll lose his opportunity and Jacksonville will go get other legit slot WRs. Agnew will go back to a return man but be a #4-5 WR depth option.
Sad, but true.
Note: In his absence, the Jags claimed WR/KR Jaydon Mickens off the Tampa Bay practice squad…he can be an Agnew-ish WR as well, for a team in need suddenly. Mickens is more of a Deonte Harris type than a thicker Agnew type...but all of them playmaking WRs with the ball in their hands.
-- After an inexplicable past few years of low TD counts with his nice other output, George Kittle (4-34-1/4) has scored a TD in three straight games. If Kittle can get up to 8-10 TDs in a season instead of 5-6…then he can push into the #1-2 spot among all TEs. He’s pushed Darren Waller aside of late for that #2 behind Kelce right now.
Trey Lance at QB in the future…not sure that’s the ticket to 10+ TDs for Kittle in the future.
-- Three games in a row with 2 TD passes for Jimmy G. (16-22 for 176 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT). The last time that JG did that is…well, never. It’s not normal for him. The offense is getting efficient with a nice O-Line to allow JG to throw for under 200 yards but toss smart/short TD passes.
I’m guessing this is more blip than reality ahead, but against MIN-SEA the next two weeks…maybe he keeps it going.
-- Trevor Lawrence (16-25 for 158 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 3-23-0) has not thrown a TD pass in three games, and here’s what’s scary about that…
When Zach Wilson or Justin Fields has a ZERO TD pass game…they at least have the excuse of a battered/bad O-Line and Wilson has had to work with terrible WRs (when Wilson was starting, and Moore wasn’t a thing yet). Lawrence has one of the five better O-Lines in the league and he has solid enough receiving weapons…and they are always down so there’s prevent defenses to toss against – and yet no TD passes.
The recent string of zero TD passes is more because Lawrence is one of the great scouting frauds of 2021. He was never generational.
Since Week 2, Lawrence has played 9 games and had 5 TDs/6 INTs…he’s not getting better, not at all.
Snap Counts of Interest:
423 = Marvin Jones
33 = Treadwell
29 = Shenault
12 = Tavon Austin
10 = Agnew
04 = John Brown
40 = J Wilson
24 = Sermon
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Dolphins 24, Jets 17
*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.
Watching this game, honestly, I couldn’t tell you who was the better team. I mean, Miami was supposed to be…but they looked equal to or lesser than the Jets…to me. Take that for whatever it is worth. Had the Jets not missed two field goals in the first part of this game…it might have been a different game/flow had the Jets got a lead to protect…but the Jets were behind by a score all game, catching up then falling back again.
Neither team here is all that great.
The Jets are (2-8) now, and they have a chance to steal a win or two more before the season ends…they have MIA, JAX, HOU still to go.
Miami books their 3rd win in a row to get to (4-7), and thus has some delusional/long shot playoff hopes. They have a schedule that can keep them in this. The QBs they face the rest of the season: Cam-Dimes-bye-ZWilson-Siemian-Tannehill(no Henry)-Mac J. Their final six games are all winnable. I need them to cool down to keep my Miami win total under bet to pay off. I think it will, but it will be closer than it needs to be. We project Miami with 7 wins in the end…but 8-9 wins is not out of the question.
The schedule also warrants the Miami-DST as a legit opportunity every week (except their bye) ahead.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Miami did their normal offense…baby throw offense (the BTO, now coined by me this second…patent pending). Little short, growing to be ‘unstoppable’ quick throws by Tua (27-33 for 272 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT). When Tua can’t do the BTO, when he has to stay in the pocket and let routes develop he’s a disaster, but in the BTO he’s getting pretty good.
My only unique Dolphins note here was – man, Mack Hollins (2-72-1/3) has been good, and deserves more targets/a better offense to work with. Did you know Hollins has 3 TDs in his last 5 games? He got lost in coverage here and Tua found him for a wide-open 65-yard score.
-- After this game, on Wednesday of the week leading up to Week 12, the Dolphins claimed Phillip Lindsay off waivers. You only do that if you’re not 100% confident in your lead running back – and/or you’re impressed with Lindsay (as everyone should be).
Either way, this is an opportunity for Lindsay because Myles Gaskin (23-89-0, 3-7-1/4) is arguably the worst on-purpose starting RB in the NFL. It will likely take 1-2 weeks before we see if Lindsay can home in on the job, but it’s an opportunity for sure. Reminder to self: The NFL never changes RBs they start a season with/cement as ‘their guy’.
-- I thought Joe Flacco (24-39 for 291 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) looked totally fine, in that fill-in sorta way. He looked very capable…like a better Trevor Siemian. If Zach Wilson (DNP) flops this week…I could see Flacco going back in as a starter.
-- Michael Carter (9-63-0, 1-2-0/1) will miss a few weeks. Who fills in?
Pre-Carter starting and with Carter down, the Jets most always put Tevin Coleman (3-16-0, -1-2-0/1) into a lead carry role and Ty Johnson (1-5-0, 1-8-0/1) holds down a passing game back role. So, all we can do is assume that’s what they’ll do for the next few games.
-- Elijah Moore (1-15-0, 8-141-1/11) looked fine/good, but he was left open in zone coverage a lot and Flacco was kinda checking it down to him. There was one sweet slant that turned in a 62-yard catch-and-run score. Moore looks fine, but when I saw the targets on paper -- I was thinking he was the new #1 WR…but, after watching the tape...I’m going to pause and wait another game before saying that. He’s their most talented WR, for sure.
It still seems like the Jets wanna force it to Corey Davis (3-35-0/7) and Moore is a nice side option. A side option you have to start for FF now, until he proves otherwise.
-- Two NYJ IDP notes…
1) Quincy Williams (15 tackles, 2 TFLs) FINALLY got back as the starter over awful Jarrad Davis and was great…per usual. He should be the starter again…I guess. If he is…he’s an LB1.
2) Rookie UDFA CB Isaiah Dunn (7 tackles) got his first start and looked OK. High effort. Solid performance but facing Tua isn’t a big test of one's coverage skills.
-- The Jets defense is so much better with Quincy Williams in. The NYJ D tends to hold opponents in the 20s when Williams starts/plays full and gives up 35-40+ when he’s not. They face the worst offense they’ve faced all year this week with Houston. It’s not a crazy DST long shot play for DFS.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Corey D
48 = Elijah Moore
41 = Crowder
13 = Cole
20 = Coleman
20 = Carter
20 = Ty J
55 = Waddle
38 = A Wilson
25 = Pr Wiliiams
22 = Hollins
53 = Gaskin
11 = Laird
06 = Duke J
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Texans 22, Titans 13
*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.
Not that Tennessee played a good game or is some great team (without Henry) that should never lose a game…but the Texans whooping Tennessee here was as much luck as anything else. The only way the Texans can score a TD is by charity…and the Titans gave them that here – a red zone pick turned long INT return to the goal line for a soon-after TD. A punt landing near a Titans return man and hitting his foot while he was trying to get out of the way and the Texans grabbed it, setting up goal to go, and a soon-after TD.
The Texans got all the breaks. The Titans lost their two main WRs in the game. The rains fell harder as they tried to mount a comeback. It was just a perfect setup for a flop…and the Titans flopped.
Tennessee is now (8-3), a fall from grace from being anointed the best team in football a week ago by the mainstream. Everything in football analysis is about ‘what happened last week’ and ‘how do I FEEL about it?’ Tennessee is not close to the best team in football after losing Derrick Henry. They may not even be worthy of being thought of as a .500 team without Henry. Still, the schedule is their friend and they should get to 11-12 wins the AFC South title.
The Texans jump to (2-8)…now, (2-1) in the division! This is still a bad team with no real offense and a scrappy OK defense. They will likely win another game or two.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The biggest FF news from this game was after the game, on Monday…the news that Adrian Peterson (9-40-0, 2-4-0/2) was released. I did 5+ minutes of rumor and theory on why this happened on our Video Show Tuesday, and the short version is – I think it was to clear the way for D’Onta Foreman (7-25-0, 1-15-0/1) to work as the clear, #1 lead back. Foreman is better than AP in 2021, and if Tennessee wants to get DF more reps, they know AP will throw a fit if he’s not features/#1 RB…so, best to rip the Band-Aid off now.
Now, many in the mainstream think Foreman is a nobody who played little snaps in this game…so this AP move, to them, must be for some other reason…like clearing the way for any other RB. The easy RB to reach for, the only RB to reach for that is new in the equation is – Dontrell Hilliard (7-35-0, 8-47-0/10).
You look at this box score and see Hilliard with as many carries as Foreman, and 8 catches, and a 51-15 snap count advantage, and you’d be foolish not to think this is about Dontrell Hilliard. It is, to some degree (AP out and Hilliard in as a live body), but there is no way the Titans are clearing the decks for a guy to be their RB when he has been on the practice squad most of the year and played no offensive snaps all season, until this game…and only then because Jeremy McNichols had a concussion.
When Derrick Henry went down…did you see the Titans rush to make Hilliard a part of their patchwork plan? Absolutely not…despite him being rostered on the practice squad, thuis totally aware of what he can do, the Titans instead went and got Peterson and Foreman and injected them right into the lineup…not Hilliard. But now you’re telling me Hilliard is their new, main plan RB…after one game of heavy usage out of necessity and game flow?
This game started as it always does, post-Henry…AP starting with the 3rd-down back (now Hilliard this week) sprinkled in on the passing game moments, and then Foreman coming in the next series and taking more of the bulk of work over AP…and working like their best back. That all happened per usual (through three games so far without Henry) to start this game.
However, unlike most Titans games, the Texans started to pull way ahead of Tennessee. The Titans got into a 2-minute drill before the half, in the pouring rain, and Tannehill dinked and dunked with his passing game back (Hilliard) and drove down the field. Nearly half of Hilliard’s catches in this game came in a one-minute span before the half of dinks and dunks. The rest came in the 2nd-half as Houston expanded their lead and the Titans got more desperate and started throwing all the time to try to get back into the game.
Hilliard was fine, he’s solid. He didn’t do anything amazing. He was just hard-working and present for a deficit mode event. If the Titans had gotten up by 2-3 scores right away, we may not have hardly seen Hilliard in this game.
I like Hilliard just fine. Solid pro. He’s just not the kind of back you build your run game around. Again, if he were, then he would have been promoted and playing ahead/with Peterson or Foreman weeks ago.
When McNichols returns, he will likely lose touches to Hilliard…or McNichols sends Hilliard back to special teams/the bench on offense.
We know Mike Vrabel doesn’t see McNichols as a lead back, or he would have started that way post-Henry. He didn’t.
This AP move is about Foreman…or some other RB we don’t know about coming in from outer space. And it makes sense as anyone watching could see Foreman was better than AP (AP was fine, but…). Foreman is Henry-like…as Henry-like as it gets off the street for Tennessee, and all they have to do is get through the next 4-5 games and then Henry will be getting back to practice.
Foreman is now ‘the heavy’ in the run game for what was the most run heavy team in the league with Henry. Foreman is talented and I’m so excited for him. Not a great schedule ahead, but since this FF-cost many of us $0 to sit on…it could be a massive ROI…an RB1-2 out of the clear blue sky.
-- The Texans aren’t so lucky as the Titans…they have paved the way for Rex Burkhead (18-40-0) to be their lead back. Mark Ingram…good-bye. Phillip Lindsay…see-ya! No, we want the NFL stylings of game changing RB Rex Burkhead. They coulda had Foreman all along, but he didn’t used to play for the Ravens or Patriots, so he doesn’t exist in their scouting database.
It doesn’t matter who the Texans RB is because the O-Line is so horrific that every RB they’ve tried has rolled under 2-3 yards per carry. So, why not Rex?
I have zero interest in Rex B. for my FF team.
…except, they are facing the Jets run defense Week 12…the #28 run defense in the NFL. Maybe, just maybe Rex or DJ rushes for a TD, but don’t bet heavy on it. But I’d bet on DJ…because that’s the purgatory I stick myself in when given the chance.
-- QB stats of note/of interest:
Since he’s returned from injury, Tyrod Taylor’s (14-24 for 107 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 6-28-2) has averaged: 56% Comp. Pct. and 173.5 passing yards per game, 25.5 rushing yards per game with 0 TD passes/3 INTs.
A mess.
Ryan Tannehill (35-52 for 323 yards, 1 TD/4 INTs) has been exposed without Derrick Henry. In his three starts with Henry gone: 69% Comp. Pct., 226.3 pass yards, 2.8 rushing yards per game with 3 TDs/5 INTs.
Neither really useful for non-Superflex leagues.
-- With Julio-Marcus-AJB down…where did Tannehill turn to for receiving options this game?
…besides Hilliard getting 10 targets on a mass of dump passes due to the rain, and situation…
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (7-107-0/8) saw the most WR targets. He’s just a very average WR talent. But he might be the clubhouse leader if AJB is out this week…but he’d also get swallowed up by J.C. Jackson.
Rookie Dez Fitzpatrick (3-35-1/6) came out of nowhere for targets and a TD, but consider he was a 4th-round pick who Tennessee cut quickly this summer and only brought back due to the injury crisis. He’s a mediocre WR for the NFL. Not a future star on the rise.
Anthony Firkser (5-26-0/7) saw a bunch of targets more than normal here, but again…this game was nothing like most any Titans game…and it was raining.
I don’t think anyone is a help here as the #2 WR while Julio and Marcus are out. I’d bet a penny on Westbrook-Ikhine but that’s about it. I don’t like this passing game as it is, plus it’s going up against the NE defense Week 12.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Dez Fitzpatrick
56 = Rogers
54 = Westbrook-Ikhine
42 = AJB
41 = Firkser
38 = Pruitt
51 = Hilliard
15 = Foreman
15 = AP
35 = D Johnson
27 = Rex B
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Patriots 25, Falcons 0
There's not much to say about this one. The Patriots are the better team, not a great team, just a solid one, and they just suffocated the Falcons all game. It was only 13-0 at halftime and as the 4th quarter started, but Matt Ryan threw 2 INT's in the final 5 minutes of the game to give New England a couple more field goals, and then Josh Rosen threw a pick 6 with 2 minutes left to make it 25-0.
The Patriots didn't do a whole lot here offensively. They continue to play like this is 2001, running the ball, completing short, controlled passes, and playing great defense. They are now 7-4 after winning their last 5, although when you look at the opponents it becomes less impressive. They beat 3 terrible teams during this stretch, snuck by the Chargers, and crushed the drowning Browns.
The next 4 weeks will decide their fate as they draw the Titans, Colts, and division rival Bills twice. I bet they go 1-3 during this stretch to reach 8-7, but it's possible they go 2-2 which would be huge especially if one of those wins is over the Bills. They probably need to go 3-1 in this stretch with a win or two over the Bills to win the division.
The Falcons fall to 4-6 and will likely finish with maybe 2 more wins or so. They aren't a good team and are holding on for dear life. They might not win another game if they don't get Cordarrelle Patterson back from injury soon. He is their best player by far and absolutely should be in the MVP conversation.
Fantasy Notes
--Well, Damien Harris (10-56-0, 1-9-0/1) came back from his concussion and split carries with rookie Rhamondre Stevenson (12-69-0, 1-6-0/1). I think this could be the primary gameplan moving forward because Stevenson looks good, real good. Harris is fine as well and was running with his usual hard-nosed style, but Stevenson made a few cuts here that rare few backs his size can make. He had another 30 or so yards called back on a holding penalty after he sidestepped two defenders smoothly and took off down the field. Seems like both guys are now going to be steady RB3's, but if either gets hurt again things could get interesting.
--The passing game continues to be a mess as Mac Jones (22-26 for 207 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) spreads the ball around to the open man. Jakobi Meyers (4-39-0/6) is the ever so slight lead WR, but it's not enough to matter. I don't think you can use him now as Kendrick Bourne (4-42-0/4) has closed the gap on him despite the difference in their snap counts. Jones seems to look for Bourne just a little more often when he's actually on the field.
--I know Hunter Henry (2-25-0/3) has been nice for fantasy the last several weeks, but this is what you get if he doesn't catch a TD. He's still just the Patriots' version of Mo Alie-Cox but Jones looks for him a little more often in the redzone.
--Matt Ryan (19-28 for 153 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) is on his last legs as a QB, only steps behind Big Ben, but most weeks he's going to be better than this. The Patriots pass defense has just gotten really good and they just strangled this offense.
--The receivers on this team are just not good enough to separate from man coverage, and Kyle Pitts (3-29-0/5) is getting doubled every play. It also doesn't help that for whatever reason he was on the bench for the first two plays of the game while the vaunted Lee Smith was in the game. You can't make this crap up.
The Patriots did have the very athletic Kyle Duggar on Pitts most of the game though, and most other teams don't have a guy that can match up that well with Pitts physically. I think Pitts could make a big run to finish the season. The only two games that really scare me for him are the two Buffalo games. In dynasty, continue to buy Pitts. He's going to be a legend.
--The only somewhat usable thing other than Pitts from this passing game is Russell Gage (5-49-0/8). He's an ok option to have as your WR3 or flex the rest of the schedule due to the amount of volume he's going to get. Just make sure to have another option for the Buffalo and Carolina games.
--The most interesting fantasy item from this game was the move away from Mike Davis (3-1-0, 3-20-0/4) towards Qadree Ollison (9-34-0) who was just elevated off the practice squad. Davis started the game, but Ollison came in during the 2nd quarter and provided a little bit of a spark. Atlanta tried to go back to Davis a couple of times, but it just wasn't working and they switched to Ollison for most of the rest of the game.
It's a curious move, but that's the second time now that we've seen Arthur Smith move off of Davis for a superior option. We all have our gripes with him this year, but most coaches wouldn't have ever given Patterson more touches and wouldn't have tried Ollison here as Davis floundered away. I think it's a sign this team will be better in the next year or two.
So what happens if Patterson is still out this week against Jacksonville? Not sure. Probably a split of some kind between Davis and Ollison. 50/50 would be my guess with Davis taking the 3rd down role. I think Patterson is going to be back though. He was close last week and has reportedly been practicing this week. So will Ollison be the backup for Patterson? I doubt it but maybe. The role wouldn't be worth much if so. The only way Ollison works is if Patterson is out so keep an eye on that injury report.
IDP Notes
--Kyle Van Noy (8 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD) had an absolutely massive week in IDP leagues, and almost nobody got those points because there was no real reason to have Van Noy starting except in very deep leagues. He's not going to repeat this obviously, but it was nice to see for a perpetually underrated player. Funny how he's so good for New England but didn't work out for the Dolphins. It's almost like the coaching may have played a part...
Snap Counts of Interest
44 = Kyle Pitts
22 = Lee Smith
40 = Russell Gage
37 = Tajae Sharpe
25 = Olamide Zaccheaus
26 = Mike Davis
26 = Qadree Ollison
56 = Jakobi Meyers
49 = Nelson Agholor
29 = Kendrick Bourne
33 = Jonnu Smith
32 = Hunter Henry
25 = Damien Harris
22 = Rhamondre Stevenson
17 = Brandon Bolden
