2022 Prop Bet: Allen Lazard 'Over Everything'

Nobody seems to know that Allen Lazard is going to be the #1 WR for the Packers in 2022. RC has said it, so we know it's true, but not many others are on board. They are not slowly getting on board…they seem to be staying off board!

Allow me to present some evidence that Lazard is not being taken seriously as the Packers #1 WR.  First, as of Tues 8/23, Lazard is ranked #68 (he was ranked #67 a few days ago) in Best Ball drafts on DraftKings…if we divide by 12 and carry the 1…that's the 6th round.  On FFPC Best Ball, it's worse…I did a draft this morning and he was ranked in the 70's. I think we can all agree that Aaron Rodgers' #1 WR in the 6th round is a no-no. The only explanation is that he is not considered the clear #1 WR. Second, FanDuel put WR yardage props up and Lazard wasn't listed.  He was recently added at an over/under of 750.5 yards as of 8/19…but as of 8/23, he is not listed for WR TDs. Aaron Rodgers' top WR should (and will) have a TD over/under prop. 

My favorite bets are ones where I wonder if the world has gone mad. Aaron Rodgers has said on more than one occasion that Lazard has put in his time, did the dirty work that was asked of him and will now be rewarded.  A few days ago after paying Lazard several compliments, Rodgers said, "There will be a little bit of a grace period as we get to know each other, starting QB to number one WR". Please, for the love of all things sacred, can we call Allen Lazard the #1 WR for the Green Bay Packers?  Not just call him that, try to believe it. Imagine Week 1 vs MIN - 8 targets, 5-90.  Week 2 vs CHI - 7 targets, 5-110-1.  And if you're buying in so far…then we have some bets to consider.  

The bets are…Allen Lazard "over" everything.  Season long player props are being rolled out and I think Lazard's numbers are too low across the board.  

-Yardage - PointsBets 725.5 (-110), DraftKings 750.5 (-115), Fanduel 750.5 (-110)

-TDs - DraftKings 5.5 (over -120)

-Receptions - DraftKings 56.5

One thing that may be working in our favor is an idea I've heard mentioned on podcasts by Sharp bettors. The idea is that betting season long player prop "overs" are a suckers bet because of injury. True and not true. I should say ‘true' in general…but who cares about "in general" or "on average".  True that if you bet every season long player prop "under" last year you would have won in the 65% range (I heard it quoted but didn't write it so that is not exact but in the ballpark). I respect the idea that playing season long player props "under" is fishing in a pool or winners (and you should too). The combination of numbers being set a bit high because of bettors bias toward playing overs and injury are no doubt causing this. However, also recognize that all "overs" are not bad bets. We must account for the probability of injury and after that could still be left with a pretty good bet on and "over".

So let's do it…I assign a 7% probability to injury losing this bet. I feel like 5% is too low (1 in 20 chance injury sinks us) and 10% feels a bit high (1 in 10 chance a 26 year old WR misses significant time). I was ready to use 10% but heard on a recent podcast that the chance a player missed the "over" because of injury is 20%. I'm feeling generous, so let's go with that even though I think it's high.  

Now we need to ask what the chances are that a healthy Lazard hits the numbers above? Once we remove the injury risk I think we have a 90% bet. I believe 9 out of 10 seasons Aaron Rodgers top WR goes over those numbers.  The "1" in that scenario is Rodgers just favoring other guys over the player he said is the top guy. Even if we are generous again and call it 80% Lazard hits the numbers when healthy (.8 x 8.) says we have a 64% bet here. Can this lose?…of course! But I can't get the bills out of my pocket quick enough to play a 64% bet.  

Recently when asked about losing Davante and having Lazard, Rodgers joked, "It's always tough going from Hall of Famer to Hall of Famer". He also said Lazard has been turning heads since day 1. That Lazard is capable of "a lot".  And that he likes a hungry Allen Lazard.

We have some history to suggest two key things…(1) The Packers always have a #1 guy in waiting (2) it's never been a rookie.  Let's start with #2 first…

Here are the rookie years of the great WRs to play with A. Rodgers…

Jordy Nelson 33 rec, 55 targets, 366, 2 TDs

Davante Adams 38 rec, 66 targets, 446, 3 TDs

Allen Lazard 35 rec, 52 targets, 477, 3 TDs

Randall Cobb 25 rec, 31 targets, 375, 1 TD

Marquez Valdes-Scantling 38 rec, 73 targets, 581, 2 TDs

Not a star but includes MVS because he put up pretty good numbers as a rookie.

So I respect Doubs and Watson, I just don't fear them.  Same with Tonyan when he comes back, Watkins, A. Jones and AJ Dillon. I want this to be a very good explosive offense because I don't see the likelihood these guys dominate a 6'7" #1 WR so he'll get his and we'll get ours (at the betting window).

There are 3 bets currently being offered so let's look at each separately…

Receptions over 56.5

Allen Lazard career reception totals…

I'm 2018, Lazard had 1 catch in the 1 game he appeared in, then…

2019 - 35 in 11 games

2020 - 33 in 10 games

2021 - 40 in 14 games

So he hasn't reached this total yet in his career.  This number is a 40% increase over last year so in that context the price looks fair given D. Adams departure.  Another way to look at it is D. Adams had 123 catches last year (which is too high of a total to work off of) but Adams has average 108 over the past 4 seasons so the new #1 just needs 53% of that production to get this number. 

Here are the receptions for past GB WR's from their first season to the year they "popped"

Jordy Nelson 33-22-45…then 68

Davante Adams 38-50…then 75

Randall Cobb 25…then right to 80!

Each #1 WR A. Rodgers worked with exceeded this total.  And once they were an established #1, the only time they missed the number was due to injury (which we already priced in).  

Yardage over 750.5

Allen Lazard career yardage totals…

The 1 catch on 2018 was for 7 yards

2019 - 477 in 11 games

2020 - 451 in 10 games 

2021 - 513 in 14 games 

Here are the yardage for past GB WR's from their first season to the year they "popped"

Jordy Nelson 366-320-528…then 1,163

Davante Adams 446-483…then 997

Randall Cobb 375…then right to 954

TDs over 5.5 (-120)

Allen Lazard career TD totals

2018…the one catch for 7 yards was not a TD

2019 - 3

2020 - 3 (also 1 in the playoffs)

2021 - 8

Here are the TDs for past GB WR's from their first season to the year they "popped"

Jordy Nelson 2-2-2…then 15

Davante Adams 3-1…then 12

Randall Cobb 1…then 8

Lazard already exceeded this number last year so let's look at the history of A. Rodgers WRs sustaining TD totals once the "arrived"…

Jordy Nelson 2-2-2…then 15-7*-8-13-14-had 6 in 6 games before Rodgers broke his collarbone

Davante Adams 3-1…then 12-10-13-5*-18-11

Randall Cobb 1…then 8-4*-12-6

The * were for seasons where they played less than 12 games.  

To conclude, I trust A. Rodgers to do a few things…

(1) keep up the good work, meaning complete 350+ passes, throw for 4,000 yards and connect on 27-32 TDs. His DraftKings props are 4,050.5 yards. 31.5 TDs.  

(2) continue to give a modest target share to his rookie WRs

(3) Keep his word that it's Allen Lazard is the #1 WR and make it so

Remember that any bet can lose, but the result does not determine whether it was a good or bad bet, the math does.  Even with a 20% chance of injury and a 20% chance a healthy Lazard missed these numbers (.8 x .8) is a (conservative in my opinion) 64% chance we cash.  

So let's win some money together or have fun trying!

Chris Bilello

Bet The Close