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A breakdown/analysis of the Divisional Playoff game where the Rams knocked down the defending champs...
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A breakdown/analysis of the Divisional Playoff game where the 49ers upset the #1 seed Packers...
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A breakdown/analysis of the Divisional Playoff game where the Chiefs won an epic/memorable game against the Bills in a shocking OT conclusion...
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A breakdown/analysis of the Divisional Playoff game where the Bengals struck down the #1 seed Titans...
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2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Lions 37, Packers 30
This game was meaningless for the Packers, but they ran some (not all/most) starters to begin the game and they went back-and-forth with the Lions playing this game to win ‘to finish on a strong note’ a.k.a. blowing a massive opportunity to secure the #1 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and all the things that could come with that.
The Lions led 17-13 at the half and held the lead into the 4th-quarter but then the Packers backups started rolling and they took the lead 30-27 for 4+ minutes remaining. The Lions…desperate to win, desperate to throw away the #1 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft…stepped it up and took back the lead with under 2 minutes left and went on to win it…which was a big loss in reality.
I don’t know why I do, why I fixate on it or expect somehow it will be different the next time -- but I continue to marvel at the sheer lunacy of NFL head coaches and their decision making. If you think I’m crazy about head coaches having no business sense and thinking it’s all about their coaching, and the players are just annoying pawns to move around their chess board – look at this game from Dan Campbell’s perspective…
Around halftime and into the 2nd-half, the Lions would have seen (on the scoreboard) the Jacksonville Jaguars actually beating the Colts…meaning if Jacksonville won and Detroit lost, the Lions would secure the #1 overall pick in the draft. With that #1 pick you have all the options at your disposal…a franchise QB (if they’re there) or trade the pick for more picks/assets. No one cares about the #2 pick all that much, but they will pay up for that #1…all the attention is with the holder of the #1 pick.
The Lions could’ve pulled Jared Goff (and others) in the 2nd-half and went with a backup QB to try and further ensure the loss likelihood. They did not. The meaningless win that the coaches think is some brilliant launching pad for next season is a joke. Defeating the Packers backups last second, which is actually embarrassing, is not momentum for next season -- but the lunatic coaches don’t see it that way…this meaningless win just cost the Lions a ton of future assets. But when you’re a delusional coach, the picks don’t matter because it’s coaching that matters, it’s ‘a win at any cost’ that matters…not draft capital/long-term thinking.
I would have tanked this game, if I were the Lions – bench Goff, play the 3rd-string QB, say ‘you want to take a look at what you got’, and do everything to lose just in case Jacksonville won…even though it was unlikely the Jags would – but then the Jags shockingly did win. But not Dan Campbell…no, ‘he’s a winner’. He believes in pickup trucks and blue jeans and apple pie and hard work. No one will remember this win…they already don’t. They will remember it 1-5 years from now when/if the eventual #1 pick in this draft is a superstar and all the Lions had to do was NOT throw all their starters at the Packers’ backups in a meaningless Week 18 game. But likely the fans will forget this moment as well, down the road. Campbell will be fired in 2-3 years and the big wheel keeps on churning.
The worst thing Dan Campbell will have ever done as an NFL head coach…is win this Week 18 game.
The Packers get the win via a loss, which actually is smart on their behalf – helping make sure the Lions didn’t get the #1 pick, helping the intra-divisional foe blow their own foot off…brilliant. Not that Matt LaFleur was thinking that, but it was brilliant nonetheless…’brilliant luck’. The Packers are headed to the Super Bowl regardless…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Jordan Love (10-17 for 134 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) started the 2nd-half and for the second time in extended play this season…he looked completely unimpressive. He tore up the 2021 preseason. Was one of the best QBs that I watched in the preseason…that QB is in hiding in the regular season. Love is panicked, jumpy, and the offensive plan is dumbed down to a bunch of quick passes and rollouts for him.
This should’ve been a time for Love to really take some chances, for the coaching staff to let him prove himself. Nope. He just ran safe plays coaches run when they know their QB isn’t capable.
I’ve moved to neutral/anti-Love at this point. His preseason had me buying in. This regular season, and my prior college scouting say…’I’m out’.
Green Bay better give Aaron Rodgers whatever he wants in order for him to stay.
-- Think the Lions are serious about replacing Jared Goff (21-30 for 238 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT)…or at least drafting the guy for the future? Well, the Lions staff are coaching one of the Senior Bowl teams, which is a tremendous opportunity for teams in need/want of a QB to see the top guy(s), if they attend, to spend a full week with these guys and really get to know them better than any team/organization out there.
The teams coaching in the Senior Bowl get to push for the QBs/players they want to work with. The Jets have Zach Wilson, so they’re not pushing to deeply scout the top QBs. The Lions, you might suspect, are interested in a young QB…so, the Detroit staff had their choice of any three QBs for Mobile. Kenny Pickett is the obvious first choice…and/or most certainly would be in the top 3 of QB prospects Detroit would wanna look at.
So, of course, the Lions put in for Malik Willis, Sam Howell, and Bailey Zappe. That’s as poor a scouting job as you will find…one of the single dumbest personnel/GM-ing decisions I’ve ever seen in my time covering football things.
You could not get a clearer sign that the Lions are not taking a QB at #2 than that (or that’s the way they think now). Anyone who mock drafts a QB to Detroit at #2 has no idea what they’re doing.
If Detroit is either unaware of/don’t think Pickett is worthy of a look…then it is even worse in that organization than you could even imagine.
The two worst coaching things I’ve seen in the past month/year…Detroit playing to win Week 18 (and winning) and then the Detroit staff not choosing to be with Kenny Pickett all week. It’s utterly inexplicable how moronic it all is. But Dan Campbell is gonna try really hard for you good, hard-working people of Detroit…he’s gonna fight to the end for you.
…I’m Dan Campbell, and I’ve approved this MESSAGE.
Suckers.
-- The Lions played this game to win, and Dan Campbell split Jamaal Williams (13-42-0, 1-9-0/1) and D’Andre Swift (7-39-1, 4-16-0/5) in this ‘must win game’.
Since Dan Campbell has taken over the offensive reins (midseason) from later-fired Anthony Lynn, Swift got an initial surge of carries and then Swift got hurt, and upon his return the carries/touches/snaps really haven’t been there like before. Not sure why or what the plan was. I mean, this is the Lions playing every game like it’s the Super Bowl…coaching every game like it’s the Super Bowl…so, Swift being throttled back is a bit odd.
Anthony Lynn is gone, so we don’t truly know what the Swift plan is for 2022. The way 2021 ended, I’m not sure that Campbell is as in love with Swift as the rest of the world is…but it’s hard to tell. I wouldn’t just go into 2022 assuming he’s ‘the guy’.
-- You barely knew Amon-Ra St. Brown (8-109-1/10) was in the NFL up to Week 12…and then he went on a tear his final 6 games of the season: 8.5 rec. (11.1 targets), 93.3 yards, 0.83 TDs per game…the #2 FF WR in PPR from Weeks 13-18.
Why is no one buying him as a top FF WR going into 2022? Why am I not? We’ll explore that question in this offseason on the DOBB side of things. He’s on the list of players to take for the mock redo Dynasty Rookie Draft we have going right now, so we’ll discuss it some there but then we’ll likely examine him deeper with an offseason piece because it’s really strange that he came on like a hurricane with numbers, but when you watch the games…he’s not doing anything all that noticeable.
-- Patrick Taylor (11-53-1, 2-3-0/2) took over at RB in the 2nd-half…he’s one of the best #3 RBs in the NFL. He’s a minor version of A.J. Dillon (14-63-0, 1-4-0/1)…physically big, pounding runners with pretty nimble feet and can handle themselves in the passing game. Likely, Taylor runs as the #3 RB again in 2022.
A.J. Dillon got a good number of touches as the season wore on, but no real signature moments. 1 TD in the first 9 games of the season, 6 TDs in the final 8 games however…more of a pace I would expect from Dillon in the future. He’s a 10-15+ TD a season guy when he becomes the lead.
-- Allen Lazard (5-75-2/6) scored 2 TDs here…5 TDs in his last five games. 8 TDs in his last 10 games. I’m not seeing any real magic between him and Aaron Rodgers, just someone has to get other TDs besides Davante…and with Robert Tonyan gone and MVS + Cobb out hurt on and off, Lazard got some extra love. I’m a fan of Lazard’s but I’m not seeing anything special happening…just good WR in a great place at the right time.
Packers FF Notes for their game vs. SF…
-- David Bakhtiari likely out stings the offense a little. Not a death blow by any means but having your quality left tackle out is a factor versus better opponents…and the 49ers defensive front has been much improved going into this game.
-- Aaron Jones should be back 100% for this game, which means a hot hand split between he and A.J. Dillon.
-- Allen Lazard has been hot but with MVS (maybe) and Cobb back this week…it’s anyone’s guess as to who will enjoy any Davante leftovers.
-- The GB-DST vs. Jimmy G. is a battle between the best defense left in the playoffs vs. the worst QB left in the playoffs…it should be the differentiating factor in this game.
Snap Counts of Interest:
65 = St. Brown
49 = J Reynolds
42 = Raymond
32 = Swift
24 = Jam Williams
06 = C Reynolds
37 = Dillon
31 = P Taylor
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
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2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the NFC Wildcard Game.
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2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the AFC Wildcard Game.
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2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Titans 28, Texans 25
Huge game for Tennessee…win and they would become the #1 seed in the AFC. A shocking turn of events…a #1 seed achieved despite losing their best player (Henry) halfway through the season, maybe the best/most important offensive player in the NFL (and I think RBs are pretty much all the same, lower value…but not Henry).
The Titans jumped out to a 21-0 lead at the half, and it was obvious to everyone that, of course, the Titans would crush the weak Texans here in such an important game. But…
With 4:04 to go in the game, the Texans had closed the lead to 28-25. The Titans on the verge of letting the lead, the AFC #1 seed, get away. But the Titans ran out the clock…they got the first downs needed to just put the game away/let the clock tick down on kneel downs at the end for the win. Closer than expected, but the Titans achieved the improbable – the #1 seed in the AFC.
Nice gutty effort for the Texans…so ‘gutty’ that they fired their 1st-year head coach about a week later. He didn’t deserve it. I mean, he shouldn’t have been hired in the first place…but he was there, and the Texans played better than their crappy roster for the most part. Culley didn’t deserve this. However, he committed the cardinal sin of NFL organizations – he has no ties back to Bill Belichick/he’s not an ex-Pat, so he’s going to go out with a whimper to be replaced by a true Patriot Way guy. Culley was a patsy…hired to run this ‘tank’ season, get it out of the way, then get Culley out of the way so a real ex-Pat can come in…whomever that might be. Culley is the Lee Harvey Oswald of the NFL in 2021-22. https://youtu.be/sbR6vHXD1j0
GM Nick Cesario is the Jack Ruby.
The Texans owner’s spiritual guru/football advisor/ex-Patriot/Cesario BFF from their days in New England Jack Easterby just sits back and laughs as his direct deposit clears for another bi-weekly compensation. He’s the CIA head in the tale of this rudderless team management, this tangled web the Texans are weaving.
Why I went JFK assassination to describe this…I think it was because I was listening to someone speak about the ordeal/theories on it last week or so, and I guess it was stuck in my subconscious.
The Titans go into the playoffs a #1 seed, that almost no one is picking to win the AFC and go to the Super Bowl…despite the potential that Derrick Henry might be back/ready-to-go. With Henry back, they should be the favorite. Without Henry, I think the Bengals would dismiss them handily.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- D’Onta Foreman (21-69-0, 1-15-0/2) kinda took over as the true lead back (with Derrick Henry out) in Week 12. From Week 12 to Week 18 (6 games), Foreman tallied…
110 carries, 482 yards rushing, 3 TDs, 6 catches for 60 yards.
18.3 carries, 80.33 rushing yards, 90.33 total yards, 0.50 TDs per game.
A 17-game season tally at those averages per game: 1,365 rushing yards, 1,536 total yards, 8.5 TDs per game, 17 catches.
That’s pretty salty work for a guy who any team could have picked up off the street the first 8 weeks of the NFL season. Foreman was a better, more effective RB, in 2021, then Ezekiel Elliott (likely playing hurt), Saquon Barkley, and Miles Sanders among others.
D’Onta Foreman is a free agent at the end of the playoffs. You think he’ll get a good contract and a chance to start anywhere in the 2022 season? Hell, no. Adrian Peterson will get chances ahead Foreman for some team most likely in 2022…just like in 2021…just like in 2020 the same scenario was true.
Here’s another example of how bad Falcons HC Arthur Smith is at evaluating talent…he had Foreman in the preseason (knew him from his days with Tennessee in 2020), but cut him weeks prior to the 53-man roster announcement.
-- Julio Jones (5-58-1/9) finally kinda mattered in a game again. It may be that he was just dealing with a nagging injury all mid-to-late season (typical) and he’s nursed his way to being ready for the playoffs (smart).
The Titans are the #1 seed.
They are getting Derrick Henry back, we assume.
Julio Jones is looking ready for the playoffs.
A.J. Brown is fully back from his couple games missed.
The defense is playing better and better.
Why are we usually all assuming the Titans can’t make it though the playoffs and get to the Super Bowl?
Julio is set to make $14M next season…or $13M to cut. The Titans took a big risk and a big financial burden to add Julio Jones this season…and it really hasn’t worked out for the price. Perhaps, he’ll salvage all that with a nice playoff run? If they win the title, it will not matter. If they lose to Cincy, the Titans fans/media will be howling about Julio as an epically stupid decision.
-- Davis Mills (23-33 for 301 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) in a meaningless game for Houston…down 21-0 at the half…behind a terrible O-Line, no run game, and no real receiver firepower outside of Brandin Cooks (and he only played 18 snaps) – and Mills throws for 300+ yards and 3 TDs and almost leads a comeback on a fully engaged opponent.
I never thought Mills would be a legit NFL QB. He didn’t have enough time at Stanford. His tape looked sloppy. He showed some mechanical skills but looked to me like he was robotic and overwhelmed…and he looked that way in the NFL preseason as well. He was thrown into the NFL fire for Houston early in the season in a terrible situation with a terrible coaching staff, and he’s responded – he’s done really well for a rookie.
In their last 6 games played/started in the 2021 season…
11 TDs/3 INTs, three 300+ yard passing games, 67%+ Comp. Pct. in games 3x = Davis Mills
10 TDs/7 INTs, two 300+ yard passing games (one was 299, but we’ll say 300), 67%+ Comp. Pct. in games 2x = Mac Jones (ignoring his start v. BUFF where he had 3 pass attempts)
I maintain, Mills is on par or better than Jones…considering the disaster Mills has to deal with and the terrific surroundings for Jones. I bring it up because it’s fascinating to consider if Mills and Jones are about the same, but what the draft price was by comparison.
-- As Davis Mills rose to power in the 2nd-half of the season, Nico Collins (3-67-0/7) showed some flashes of being a legit NFL WR…but he has a ways to go.
In his final 5 games of the 2021 season, Collins averaged 3.0 rec. (6.0 targets), 43.6 yards, 0.20 TDs per game.
Collins has work to do to improve his short game, but he definitely flashed star-like talent to me. Very encouraged by the raw skills of Collins. He’s definitely one to watch for 2022 or 2023. He has some ‘it’.
-- The Titans defense has allowed 0-19-17-3-25 for points in games since their Week 13 BYE…just 12.8 PPG allowed in that span. They didn’t play a murder’s row on the schedule or anything but they did squash who they should and did fluster/halt the hot (2nd-half of the season) 49ers offense in that stretch.
This defense faces a HUGE test with Cincinnati/Joe Burrow 1st-round of the playoffs…but they killed Patrick Mahomes and Matt Stafford earlier this season.
Titans FF Notes for divisional game v. Cincy:
-- This game marked the first time that Ryan Tannehill had a fully healthy A.J. Brown with fully healthy (looking) Julio Jones with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine running as the heavy-snap count #3…and Tannehill completed 71.9% of his passes and threw for 4 TDs…and each of those three WRs caught a TD pass. It was Tannehill’s best game (to my eye) of the 2021 season.
Tannehill has 7 TDs/0 INTs in his last three games, completing over 73% of his passes in that span. With Derrick Henry back providing cover for thinner coverage in the passing game, Tannehill might be a slick DFS/one-week play this week.
-- I’d expect a fully cleared, healthy Derrick Henry to get 90%+ of the RB touches, with Dontrell Hilliard on 3rd-downs/obvious passing situations, and D’Onta Foreman to barely play/touch the ball.
-- Anthony Firkser has scored a TD in back-to-back weeks. 2.8 rec. per game his last five games.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = A.J. Brown
50 = Westbrook-Ikhine
46 = Julio Jones
12 = McMath
10 = Ch Rogers
35 = Foreman
34 = Hilliard
48 = Swaim
23 = Firkser
40 = Burkhead
17 = David Johnson
01 = R Freeman
41 = Collins
37 = C Moore
30 = Amendola
22 = J Camp
18 = Br Cooks
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season sign ups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the NFC Wildcard Game.