- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the AFC Wildcard Game.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the NFC Wildcard Game.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the AFC Wildcard Game.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Cowboys 51, Eagles 26
Dallas played this game to win it…for better seeding potential. The Eagles had little reason to play, having clinched a wild card already, plus an outbreak of COVID positives, so they did the smart thing and took Week 18 as a BYE week for their key players and didn’t worry about +1 seed move potential.
Philly goes to Tampa Bay round-one of the playoffs…and I think the Eagles could be a sneaky option to take down a wounded Tampa team in the rain…with Philly as fresh as they can possibly be.
Dallas ‘wins’ this game and thus draws SF instead of Arizona, and all things considered…I think Dallas would rather have lost and played Arizona…because I think San Fran, one of the hottest teams in the NFL, is going to take them down.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Gardner Minshew (19-33 for 186 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) got the start and played well, but working with backups all over and the backup defense giving up score after score to Dallas 1st-team (and then 2nd-team)…no chance Philly/Minshew was winning this game.
Minshew had a third TD pass in the bag, but J.J. Arcega-Whiteside botched it…right in his hands in the end zone. There is no worse offensive player in the NFL than Arcega-Whiteside. A 2nd-round pick of the Eagles, mind you, with most all of the scouting world onboard with it.
Minshew is one of the 30 best QBs walking the planet earth, but he’ll be stuck behind Jalen Hurts for another season (and Hurts is a top 20-30 QB walking the planet as well) and then Minshew-Mania will hit free agency in 2023. He will not challenge for the Philly starting job…Hurts is the Philly franchise QB.
Minshew has 41 TDs/12 INTs in 27 NFL games/22 starts…and yet cannot draw more than a 6th-round draft pick in a trade this preseason. What do NFL scouts and GMs look at all day, all month, all year?
-- I really was excited to rewatch this game, primarily, to see QB-turned-TE Tyree Jackson (3-22-1/5) starting and seeing actual targets!
He scored a TD on a simple TE shuffle pass mid game…and at least it was something, but later in the game, running down the sideline, he tore his ACL…non contact.
So…in the 2021 season, in August Tyree broke his back in a preseason game. Rehabbed his way back midseason, only to tear his ACL at the end. The new ‘Jalen Hurd’.
I was a huge fan of what I saw from Tyree in the preseason, but a broken back…and then an ACL (which will likely linger into 2022 season being it was a late season ACL), I’ll do a Shark Tank ‘I’m out’. I/we (Dynasty players) have him on many deep-deep roster Dynasty teams. I’m OK to hold at a certain point, but my initial wild enthusiasm and ‘next Waller’ claims have been undercut by the injury bug/monster.
-- With the Eagles top three starting RBs all out Week 18, Kenneth Gainwell (12-78-1, 4-9-0/7) was set to be the lead…and he did fine, but the RB who caught my eye was Jason Huntley (13-51-0, 0-0-0/1). I think he caught Nick Sirianni’s eye too because Huntley got more and more time in this game as it went on because he looked so strong.
I’m bumping up Huntley’s projections for the future in our Dynasty Offseason valuations – which will debut in the DOBB area after the Super Bowl, the top 600 offensive players by our computer model dynasty values.
Huntley looked capable enough to be a #3 RB in 2022 with Scott-Howard potentially gone via free agency, but Huntley is a free agent as well. Huntley returned three kicks for a 28.0 yard average in this game as well…he can be the primary KR in 2022 as well, if Philly retains his services.
-- Think of all the WRs that have hit in the NFL the past two years, guys just entering into the league and impacting at a high level…Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Darnell Mooney, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, etc. WRs are walking into the league and producing…there is no more ‘you know WRs in year three’ theory anymore – the NFL has evolved past that.
And then there’s CeeDee Lamb (2-45-0/2)…the media’s favorite 2020 WR/‘generational talent’ hitting the league.
Working a very solid offense, with a #1 WR (Amari) taking all the top coverage heat and Michael Gallup being out for a stretch, and Lamb was pretty inconsequential this season…and his output faded off as the season wore on.
Lamb scored 2 TDs in his final 10 games of the 2021 season. He went over 70 yards in a game just twice in that 10-game span. He has not been a difference maker…just a guy on the field who is fine/solid/capable. I’d argue Cedrick Wilson (5-119-2/6) works harder and better when he’s pushed into a starting role for Dallas…and I’ve speculated on that going back to 2020 on Wilson v. Lamb. I think the Dallas offense looks better with Wilson in Lamb’s spot, and Lamb out. In 2021, working together…Wilson seems more interesting.
I’m doing a redo Dynasty Rookie Draft on CFM and DOBB right now, a mock draft using just the 2020 and 2021 rookies…and I don’t know if Lamb will make the top 20…or even make the official top 25 (which is how deep this particular mock will go). I’ve made 10 picks (posted) so far, as of this writing, and Lamb is nowhere to be found…and isn’t on my short list for the next 5+ picks.
Would you rather have Amon-Ra St. Brown or CeeDee Lamb for Dynasty going forward? If you don’t own CeeDee, you probably knee-jerked and thought ‘CeeDee, of course’…but that’s because we’re all affected by the media hype/coverage of him and playing for the Cowboys adds more hot sauce (in our minds) -- but you don’t know the reality. Lamb owners would likely be less likely to leap at Lamb over ARSB right now…and that’s just one example.
Darnell Mooney or Lamb? Easy choice for me, Mooney is far superior.
There’s a CeeDee Lamb issue happening/he’s not living up to expectations. At least Jerry Jeudy can blame his offense/QB. Lamb has no excuse for his mediocrity…except he’s mediocre, he always was.
-- Will Ezekiel Elliott (18-87-0, 1-3-0/3) be a 1st-round pick in redrafts next year? The easy thing to do is pile onto his bad 2021 season and say ‘no’, but…
1) People love to take RBs, for redraft, in the 1st-round…so much so the mere proposition of a WR or QB or TE 1st-round makes most FF player’s butt cheeks pucker up. I’ve seen and lived with that mindset for people for 5+ years now. It’s really weird how institutionalized we are on the Fantasy RB.
2) People also LOVE ‘Zeke’…remember that time he jumped in the Salvation Army bucket? Oh, those were the days.
Saquon is probably OUT as a 1st-round belief in redraft 2022…but Zeke still has enough heart strings pulled, and he’s a COWBOY so that’s a +1 value boost. He’ll probably be in most late-1st-round rankings in the mainstream, and thus the reality.
One thing I can guarantee you about Zeke in 2022…you will not see us with him in our 1st-round valuations, nor will I ever suggest you draft him in 2022. Let him be someone else’s problem or salvation (Army). There’s better RB value out there.
-- For whatever it is worth, I think the Eagles are starting to explore Jalen Reagor (3-10-0, 2-19-0/3) as their ‘Deebo Samuel’…and you know what? Reagor looks really good running the ball.
Three carries in this game…one of them was him as a straight-up running back/lone setback in the backfield. He’s failing as a traditional WR, but if they get him involved in a totally different way…jet sweeps, regular RB totes, and designed bubble screens…and just drop the regular WR stuff…maybe they get a weapon for the playoffs that will shock the Buccaneers as something they didn’t see coming.
But that’s just me…using logic…applying it to a league, a business, a thing that rarely uses logic.
FYI, Reagor has caught 57.4% (2020) and 57.9% (2021) of his pass targets in his two seasons in the NFL. Not good enough. Will the Eagles ever live down that they took Reagor in the 2020 NFL Draft…and then Justin Jefferson went in the next pick?
FYI #2: Had Jefferson gone to Philly we would not know him as the Jefferson we do today.
-- IDP note…
Eagles rookie DT Milton Williams (3 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) is perking up…the Pro Day measurables attention-getter in 2021 – Aaron Donald like measurables, but not an Aaron Donald-like college career.
In Williams’s final four games of the 2021 regular season: 2.3 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 0.50 PDs, 0.75 QB hits, 0.25 sacks per game. He’s starting ‘out athlete’ blockers in spots later in 2021…and encouraging sign/hope of something for the future.
Snap Counts of Interest:
69 = Reagor
43 = Ward
31 = Quez
14 = Devonta
39 = Gainwell
31 = Huntley
49 = lamb
46 = Amari
42 = C Wilson
37 = Zeke
17 = C Clement
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Steelers 16, Ravens 13 (By Ross Jacobs)
You've got to be kidding me with the Steelers. This team is so bad and yet now they've lucked their way into the playoffs thanks to the Colts. Unbelievable.
This was a sloppy game played in the rain between two not good teams and it showed. The Ravens actually led a good chunk of the game but got down later on and managed to send it to overtime where they just couldn't come up with a score.
Baltimore sustained too many injuries this year and their early season good fortune faded in the second half. Hard to remember they were the #1 seed at 8-3 at one point. They finished with 6 straight losses to end up with a losing record and we called it ahead of time.
Pittsburgh makes the playoffs for whatever that's worth, but they have absolutely no chance of winning the Super Bowl. This is quite possibly the worst team to make the playoffs that I've ever seen. They are downright painful to watch. Maybe they can cover the huge spread against the Chiefs, but a win seems highly unlikely.
Pittsburgh Dad Analysis: https://youtu.be/J1A3sApu9g0
"You knew what you're getting into when I came down the aisle in a Greg Lloyd jersey..."
Fantasy Notes
--I've been talking up Tyler Huntley since this preseason and he laid a real egg here. What happened? The rain mostly. It was very sloppy conditions and instead of taking shorter, easy throws, the Ravens were trying to attack middle/deep. It didn't work out too well as a couple of Huntley passes sailed on him a little bit for easy INT's. He really didn't play all the bad on the whole.
Huntley will be an exclusive right free agent in 2022 which means the Ravens can offer him a league minimum contract and he can't negotiate with other teams. They could also trade him if they get a large enough offer, but I highly doubt that happens. Huntley played well but I just cannot see another team trading away draft picks to bring him in as a potential starter. Not yet.
Most likely Huntley plays one more year in Baltimore as the backup and will sign with someone else to compete for a starting spot after that. He's a decent player, but I do think he needs to play in a system like Baltimore runs. If you try to jam him into anything else it's probably not going to go that well.
--What is the Baltimore backfield going to look like next year? You have to imagine we see the return of JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, but since both guys will be trying to come back from ACL injuries, I bet we see Baltimore bring in another capable back just in case. We know it's not going to be Ty'Son Williams....
--One thing I'll be watching very closely next preseason, is how targets are split between Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman. Bateman is for sure the better talent but Brown is still bff's with Lamar and Lamar isn't that great a passer anyways. If Bateman does pass Brown though, he could be in line for those force-fed targets Lamar was giving to Brown early on. Don't forget that Brown was tracking as a top 8 receiver the first half of the year. Bateman is a better player, so I'd love to see what he could do with 10 targets a game.
--Latavius Murray (16-150-1) had himself a huge game. Trust me when I say it wasn't Murray's doing. He's fine but he just runs straight ahead for what's blocked these days. You want to know what sprung him open so often? Ben Cleveland was mauling people.
Cam Heyward supposedly had such a great year and he was getting blown off the ball by Cleveland all game. I only saw Heyward beat Cleveland once on a run play. But the biggest gains were when Cleveland pulled to the right and just blasted whoever happened to be in his way. The run game is in good hands with this animal blocking for the next 10 years.
--RayRay McCloud continued his string of heavy targeting. Don't be fooled though. He's not very good and only catches screens and short drags. Also with Roethlisberger gone next year the targeting likely won't be so heavy and he'll fall farther behind Diontae and Claypool. Nothing to see here.
--One impressive rookie that I didn't initially like after the draft was Pat Freiermuth, but once RC and I got a look at him early on it was clear he could play. He's a Dalton Schultz level talent, pretty good, nice solid TE, but nowhere near, say, Kyle Pitts.
Now it's possible Freiermuth could work better for fantasy than Pitts considering the sorry state of the Falcons and their head coach. He nearly did this year (10.4 vs 9.5 ppg) but that was with Freiermuth scoring 7 TD's vs Pitts's 1. Do we really think Pitts is going to go another year only scoring 1 TD? I don't. I'll take Pitts heads up every time until proven otherwise.
IDP Notes
--Early in the year I liked the development I saw from Patrick Queen. He was flying around, attacking the line of scrimmage, making a lot of good plays. But I hadn't watched him in several weeks before this game, and let me tell you, what I saw here was not good.
Queen was constantly out of position, roaming around without purpose, missing tackles, getting blocked out of plays. It was downright ugly, the kind of thing you saw from him a lot in college. He's got all the physical talent to make it, but there's been a definite downward trend in his play recently.
I couldn't tell you why yet. Maybe the injuries around him have put more pressure on him, he's not as protected as he was early in the season. That would be my best guess. Regardless, I won't be surprised if Baltimore drafts an inside linebacker in 2022 to develop. If they do it's a very good sign they'll be moving on from Queen sooner rather than later.
--Got another good look at Chris Westry too after not seeing him in a while. He's got impressive height at 6'4” and moves pretty well for a guy that tall, but he's too easy to shake on short routes. His game is more straight line. Let him run deep and he can play bigger receivers well, but he was on Diontae a lot here and was getting torn up. That's not a crime. Diontae is really good. Just saying he should have been playing more on Claypool.
Snap Counts of Interest
69 = Claypool
65 = Diontae
50 = McCloud
62 = Bateman
58 = Brown
21 = Watkins
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Raiders 35, Chargers 32 (By Ross Jacobs)
Without a doubt one of the wildest, craziest games I've ever seen and it came with huge playoff implications in prime time as the last regular season game of the year. The NFL couldn't have asked for a better game.
In fact, it was so crazy and the situation so sensitive that Twitter was awash with people wondering if the game was rigged. That's how nuts this was.
With 5:00 minutes left the Chargers trailed 29-14. They had been mostly dominated by the Raiders all game and things looked bleak.
But Justin Herbert would not be denied and put the team on his back as impressively as any QB I've ever seen. His receivers were dog tired, could barely get open, dropping passes left and right. The offense would fail for three straight plays and then on 4th and forever Herbert would throw a laser beam right into a receiver with two guys blanketing him. He did this over and over. I have no idea how many 4th downs the Chargers converted but it was a huge number.
LA tied the game up as time expired and the game went into OT. Keep in mind that at this point, one of the big talking points was that if the game ended in a tie then both teams would make the playoffs and the Steelers would be left out. A few minutes prior Pittsburgh looked safe, but after LAC tied the game suddenly things got a lot more interesting. Would the two teams just play it safe and go for the tie?
It didn't start that way. Both of them came out determined to win and the Raiders were the first to strike with a FG. The Chargers tied it up on another miraculous drive and it was down to the Raiders with the ball just minutes left on the clock.
LV began running the ball every play milking the clock and the Chargers couldn't stop it. It looked like the Raiders might be willing to just run the clock out, but for whatever reason Brandon Staley called a timeout with about 30 seconds left on the clock.
There was no point to the move. He had no time to get the ball back and he had to know the Raiders were going to run the ball again either to set up the field goal or just run the clock out. Staley could have just left it alone and perhaps the Raiders wouldn't have attempted the field goal. But maybe not. We just don't know despite rampant speculation that they would have.
Regardless, after the timeout LV did indeed run the ball and then booted the winning field goal as time expired.
In a massive game, on prime time tv, your playoff hopes on the line, the Chargers played a miserable game and Staley failed in a way that won't soon be forgotten. They lost to an inferior team but one that was tougher and more disciplined. Without Herbert they wouldn't have even had a chance.
But to me out of all the things that the Chargers did wrong, the most egregious was watching their RT get straight up abused by Maxx Crosby literally every snap and they didn't adjust for it until the final minutes of the game.
The entire offense has been a mess to my eyes all year. Yes, they scored a lot of points, but it could have been so much better. I don't like all these stupid short routes just because the OC learned them from Sean Payton. Herbert is the best deep ball thrower in the entire league and you're hamstringing him every time you make him dump it short. I hate that Mike Williams gets mostly ignored until crunch time. I hate that they are so slow to make adjustments to what the defense is doing.
The OC needs to be replaced quite frankly, but they won't do it and I believe it's going to cost this team over the next couple years. Yet another brilliant young QB wasting years because coaches refuse to get their heads out of their asses.
The Chargers are too talented to fail badly in 2022. Herbert won't allow it. But how high is this team going to go? I have multiple questions about their approach and I'll remain skeptical until I see differently.
For the Raiders it's been a storybook season. They started off hot, tanked for a while, lost their head coach to a scandal, lost a WR to a drunk driving incident, lost a corner to an abuse allegation, and somehow rallied behind their interim head coach and slugged their way to 4 straight wins and a playoff berth.
All credit to them for hanging tough and fighting through so much adversity.
Unfortunately, this storybook tale likely ends in the first round of the playoffs. They are a scrappy, hard-fighting team for sure. They give everything they've got every week. But they just are not very talented and it looks like too big of a hill to claim to make a deep playoff run.
They now have to fly out to cold Cincinnati to play a rested and very tough team after spending every last bit of emotional energy trying to close out the Chargers. It's not a great recipe. I am a little weary of writing this team completely off though as they've shown how tough they are. I wouldn't surprise me to see them pull this one upset. It won't last though and at some point they will fall to a better team.
Fantasy Notes
--Did the Chargers finally, finally figure out that Big Mike is their best receiver? Maybe. He finished with 9-119-1 on 17 targets compared to only 8 for Keenan Allen. It wouldn't surprise me if they tried to bring him back next year and make him the 1A and Allen the 1B. That's how it should have been all year, but maybe we were just a little early.
--Another change I'd like to see next year is more time for Josh Palmer over Jalen Guton. Palmer did actually outsnap Guyton here although it was close. I don't think they can hold him down much longer. He's the future at WR for the Chargers, possibly as the #2 behind Mike.
--Hunter Renfrow finished as the ppr WR10 on the season and WR16 in points per game. It's a phenomenal accomplishment for a guy that was ignored by the masses until the middle of the season. We covered his rise early in the year when everyone else was still on the Ruggs train, and we also covered his fall these past four games as Zay Jones ascended.
That's the part getting lost in the Renfrow feel-good story. He tailed off hard the past four games. Over that span he averaged a mere 5.5 targets per game for 4 catches, 40 yards, and 1.0 TD's per game. Renfrow transformed from ppr monster in the mold of Julian Edelman into an uncoverable goalline specialist. Go figure.
--As Renfrow fell in importance to the offense, Jones was rising. His last four games he averaged 9 targets for 6 catches, 61 yards, and 0 TD's, essentially taking over the chain-moving role that Renfrow had filled for most of the year.
Jones is a talent in the mold of Diontae Johnson. He has great feet off the snap and a talent for accelerating at the last second to create separation. Neither guy is very big or particularly athletic, but they both know how to play receiver in a way that transcends their physical abilities.
Jones's early career got derailed in Buffalo due to some injuries and personal issues, but he's finally getting things turned around in LV.
--I have no interest in Bryan Edwards anymore. They've shown me no interest in him at all.
So which guy are we interested in for 2022? I'm going to have to think more about this, and I'd be curious to hear RC's answer, but my gut tells me I want in on Jones more than Renfrow. He's the better talent and the guy that Carr transitioned to late. I bet that carries over into next year. If Jones becomes Carr's Diontae that could be pretty sweet for ppr.
*RC NOTE: Let’s see if Zay returns, first. He’s a free agent at just the right time. But if Carr and Bisaccia are back, and it’s basically the same team/staff/offense – I’ll probably take Renfrow but I won’t rule out the right answer being Zay (if he’s back).
--All year long I heard about how great Darren Waller is and how much the offense was missing him blah blah blah. And then he comes out here and puts up 2 catches for 22 yards on 9 targets. He had that one monster game the first game of the season and everyone latched onto that as proof of his immortal status, but he only had 2 other games over 70 yards the rest of the year.
I was a fan until this year, but something is up with him. I've seen too many defenders shutting him down. Maybe he's been slowed by the injuries he was dealing with? I don't know but I'm definitely not as high on him for 2022 now.
IDP Notes
--What a great game from Uchenna Nwosu (7 tackles, 1 sack, 4 tfl, 1 pd). He was causing so much trouble for the LV offensive line, but his performance was kind of lost by all the attention Crosby got for destroying Storm Norton.
He's been a rotational pass rusher most of the year, but his snaps have been trending up recently and he finally seems to be delivering on the promise he showed as a 2nd round pick in 2018. Not the biggest guy, he's a very quick, active rusher that tries to beat people with speed. Sometimes guys like that take some time to figure out how to get by very athletic NFL blockers. I'll be watching him next year to see if he's ready to make a bigger jump.
Snap Counts of Interest
82 = Allen
67 = Williams
56 = Palmer
50 = Guyton
71 = Zay
56 = Edwards
51 = Renfrow
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Bills 27, Jets 10 (By Ross Jacobs)
The score looks like a blowout, but this game was 13-10 in the 4th quarter. The Bills managed to put it away shortly after and the win was never really in doubt, but you have to give the Jets some credit for keeping it close that long.
The last four weeks we've seen some good growth from the Jets. They hung in with the Dolphins and Bills and nearly beat the Bucs. I do think there is some reason for optimism with them the next couple years. They have a decent foundation in theory with Zach Wilson, Becton, Tucker, and several solid players on defense. Fill in the gaps with a few more smart free agent pickups, hit on a couple draft picks, and you've got yourself a competitive team.
Buffalo comes into the playoffs as a quiet #3 seed. There was a lot of hype about them early in the year before a series of losses, including an embarrassing one to the Jags, sent them tumbling down the ranks. They closed out the season strong with four straight wins, but three of those were against some of the worst teams in the league, the Panthers, Falcons, and Jets.
Their lone really good win this year was an early season smackdown of the Chiefs. They've lost to most of the other good teams they've played although that's only a few teams really. Honestly they've had a rather pathetic schedule looking back on it, and it's a wonder they only won 11 games.
So are they a fake good team? It's really hard to say. They've mostly destroyed the bad teams, and it's possible they just had bad outings against better teams like the Colts and Bucs. I have noticed that physical run-first teams seem to give them lots of problems, and quite frankly McDermott seems to fold in big moments.
I think they are as good as any team in the AFC and could absolutely win the Super Bowl if things fall right, but I doubt I'll be betting on them. I think teams like the Titans and Packers will destroy them.
If they win, it will be because Josh Allen goes full Superman and carries them on his back. I've seen more shaky moments from him this year than I expected. Not sure if it's him or the offense. He has some moments of sheer brilliance so I think maybe he's pressing knowing that he's got to carry the team, a lot like what Mahomes has dealt with this year.
One thing the team could do to help him is let him run more. That would open things up a lot if defenses had to fear him taking off more often.
Fantasy Notes
--It's been a rough first year for Zach Wilson, but that was to be expected. We all knew he was going to a terrible team with no wide receivers and not much in the way of blocking. When he lost Becton for the year there was no hope.
It's far too early to write him off, but I just can't get fully on board with Wilson the way I did with Burrow and Herbert. Wilson has too many things working against him in my opinion.
He's smaller and is already getting banged up far too often for one. He also had the misfortune of being one of the media's hated QB's. I'll never understand how the crowd decides who that guy is going to be, but I know it's Wilson and they'll stop at nothing to tear him down. He also has the misfortune of playing for the Jets. Bad teams stay bad for a reason, and this franchise has shown no ability to change for a long, long time now.
I believe in Wilson's talent no doubt. He could be a very good NFL QB under the right circumstances. But I also don't believe he has transcendent talent like some of the other young QB's. He needs help, and I don't think he's likely to get it.
Maybe things break right and he has a Goff-like resurgence for a few years, but much like Goff, eventually the media will come for him when he falters for even a moment and they'll get league opinion of him shot to hell if it's not already.
I think he's worth holding for another year in deep dynasty leagues if you've got the space, but there are interesting QB's coming into the league every year now. 20 years ago Wilson would have been special, a top 5 talent. These days he's just another pretty good player among many. I don't think he's worth chasing too hard. Besides, his value isn't going higher anytime soon, so we can reassess next preseason and you'll be able to grab him for pennies then if we think a breakout is coming.
--Well it only took the Bills three years to figure out what RC and I have been saying this entire time. Devin Singletary is their best back and it's not even close. 5 TD's in his last four games with at least 1 TD in all each and over 80 yards in three of them. His one down game was against the Patriots where he only got 12 carries but made up for it with 5 catches for another 40 yards. He's averaged 19 carries a game over this stretch.
The man is on fire, and it appears the Bills have finally figured out how to run the ball. Unfortunately, they draw the Patriots again in the first round and I'd expect Belichick to clamp down on the run game again. He'll try to force Allen to stay in the pocket and beat him through the air. Could be a good environment for check downs to Singletary though as we saw last time they played.
Assuming they get past NE and KC handles business with the Steelers, those two teams will match up next, and that looks like a great place for Singletary to have a big game. Do not sleep on Singletary in these playoffs.
--Dawson Knox had another good year, but I don't see any signs of him taking that next leap into the elite TE group. He's pretty good but still a little shaky with his hands at times, and Allen still doesn't go to him often enough to push big numbers. He lives and dies with the TD's. Looks like a TE1 again in 2022 to me but more in the 8-12 range.
--Gabriel Davis made the jump to #2 WR for Buf a few weeks ago and we talked about the transition at the time. He's solid enough, not my favorite receiver, but Allen seems to love him especially around the endzone.
The connection was a bit off here and Davis couldn't seem to shake the sticky Jets corners, thus only 3 catches on 14 targets. That sounds damning that he couldn't beat the Jets, but as I've been saying for quite a while now, I've been very impressed with how tightly the Jets corners stick to people. It takes some brilliant throws to beat them.
I think Davis is fine and could be in for a very nice playoff run. In 2022 he might end up being a great value pick late as a WR2-3 hopeful that people price as a WR4-5.
--I want to see what changes the Jets make in the off-season, but I'm going to be very interested in snagging Michael Carter as a potential sneaky RB1-1.5. We saw what he could do earlier in the year in ppr when Mike White was tossing him so many dumpoff passes. If Wilson could figure out how to do that Carter has some discount-Ekeler ability (discount because the offense won't be scoring that many TD's). The great thing about Carter is he can be part of a rotation and it won't matter so long as he gets his catches.
--Denzel Mims led the team in WR snaps this week after they had been growing for a few weeks now. I still see no signs that he's going to do anything with this team. They don't seem interested in getting him the ball at all. He looks good moving around so I don't know what the problem is. Bet he reunites with Rhule and the Panthers before long.
IDP Notes
--One rookie I noticed a lot this year was Greg Rousseau. He has quietly played a large amount of snaps and put together a very nice rookie campaign. I've seen nothing to suggest he's a future star pass rusher, but he fits in perfectly with the rest of the Buffalo defense. He's a big, strong guy that does his job, stays in his lane, and pushes the pocket.
He's probably never going to put up a ton of sacks or get much recognition, especially playing for Buffalo, but he's a perfect role player for a defense that is greater than the sum of its parts.
--Another guy that fits that mold for this defense is Ed Oliver. I did actually expect Oliver to be a star when he first entered the league, but it just hasn't happened. I thought he could be the next best thing to Aaron Donald.
No such luck but Oliver is another Buffalo soldier in the middle. He does his job and that motor never stops. He popped up here on the stat sheet with 4 tackles and 1.5 sacks, but that's more a function of a bad Jets offensive line and Wilson trying to do too much than anything Oliver was doing.
Snap Counts of Interest
75 = Davis
67 = Diggs
42 = Beasley
22 = McKenzie
62 = Singletary
18 = Moss
35 = Mims
34 = Jeff Smith
28 = Cole
24 = Carter
15 = Ty Johnson
10 = Coleman
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Dolphins 33, Patriots 24
A must-win game for NE to try and win the AFC East, and they flopped. Not a crime…going to Miami late season is always tough for opponents as players ‘partake’ in the Miami life and also may not be totally adapted to the change in climate. Whatever the reason, the Patriots got beat off the jump and could never really catch up.
The big news involving anything from these two teams was the somewhat surprise firing of Brian Flores soon after. Back-to-back winning seasons, and then fired. No matter what you think of Flores (and I’m not a fan)…what is any coach to do to make anyone happy to retain jobs as head coaches? Flores, to me, is a terrible head coach (with his worst characteristic being offensive personnel management) and I wouldn’t want him as my team’s HC, but in the big picture of things…he did ‘win’ here.
That’s how you know someone is an awful human/leader/communicator behind the scenes, as a head coach, because Flores won games and still got fired. He got dumped, by and large, because people don’t like him…and they can probably see he’s a terrible judge of offensive talent as well. Whoever steals this job has a golden opportunity in a place that players want to play/go to live/raise a family and play in a lot of warm weather games with no state tax on their earnings.
Who will the Dolphins choose to be the new head coach? I couldn’t care less. I will start out assuming whomever they choose will also fail within three years, but I’m willing for them to prove me wrong. My money would be on whatever coach they think Deshaun Watson wants to play for.
Flores is an ex-Patriot tie, so he will be the next Houston coach. The ‘shock’ availability of Flores on the market causes the Culley firing. The Houston GM is an ex-Pat. The Houston spiritual leader to the owner and GM is an ex-Pat. Culley was not. An ex-Pat is going to be hired as H-C in Houston…likely Flores. And they can all get swept away together in 2-4 years and go back to working for Belichick.
The Patriots lose but are headed to the playoffs. The Patriots have been in a nose dive since their Week 14 BYE…(1-3) to finish the season with their lone win over Jacksonville. The Patriots are one of the worst teams among the playoff group and will likely get squashed by Buffalo, unless the cold weather helps them sneak by. Even if NE slips past Buffalo, they won’t go any further than that. The playoff team with the worst QB among all the teams cannot make a run for the title.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- It sounds like one of the tipping points of Flores getting fired was his fighting with Tua Tagovailoa (15-22 for 109 yards, 1 TD/0 INT). I’m not sure if I totally buy it…I mean, it was Flores who slit his own throat mid-2020 season by pulling Ryan Fitzpatrick for Tua in the first place.
But just like fans get cranky about their team’s head coach right away, for not winning every game by 20+ points, head coaches get tired of their QB (if they’re not elite, and sometimes when they are)…because when head coaches lose, they tend to blame the QB.
So…did Miami management just side with Tua over Flores? Big mistake if they did. I can believe that Flores was done with Tua (like he was done with Rosen, like he was done with Fitzpatrick…his first starting QBs), but the GM didn’t want to be embarrassed by the pick…so, the GM bought himself another year of shifting blame for Tua’s shortcomings on the outgoing Flores. If a condition of taking the Miami job is ‘Tua is your starter’, then Miami is about to get a very sad coach because the GM is trying to cover his ass. No respectable coach with options will choose Miami if they HAVE to work with Tua.
-- If Tua stays, Jaylen Waddle (5-27-1/7) has a chance to be a WR1 in PPR again in 2022, but the risk will be the new coach breaks up the Tua-Waddle party with ‘a new system’ he brings.
-- They might have fired Flores because of what he did at running back the past two years.
How he could have purposely pushed Myles Gaskin (1-0-0, 3-11-0/3) over Jordan Howard in 2020 is criminal. Howard hated playing there – that was another sign that there were Flores issues. How could Flores pick Gaskin over anybody at RB?
So, Flores sticks by Gaskin from 2020 to this 2021 season, without drafting or signing any decent RB to challenge him in 2021. Then, all of a sudden, Philip Lindsay (11-40-0) became available midseason…and Flores grabs him and starts to push him, but then he and Gaskin get COVID, so Flores has to use Duke Johnson (25-117-1, 1-5-0/1) for an emergency starts…and Duke does well, and then suddenly Duke Johnson is his workhorse back. Almost two years of a useless Gaskin push, and then Gaskin loses his job due to COVID…to the illustrious Duke Johnson.
Whomever the new Miami head coach is – that RB group is gonna get turned upside down via draft or free agency or both in 2022.
Hopefully someone will realize the opportunity there is in making Philip Lindsay a great pass game back who can take 5-10 carries as well but can also be a lead back if the lead back is down for any time.
-- First 12 games for Mac Jones (20-30 for 261 yards, 1 TD/1 INT): 16 TDs/8 INTs…a great start for a rookie.
Jones’s last five games: 6 TDs/5 INTs and a (2-3) record that should’ve been (1-3). I think the Mac Jones/NE offense is getting figured out, as is Mac Jones.
As the season wore on, Jones faded some…while Davis Mills, in a much tougher environment, got better. I still think it is very possible Mills is the better rookie QB than Jones, but there’s still time for both to grow and we’ll see. Right now, I take Mills over Jones…but ‘neither’ would be my preference.
-- Jakobi Meyers (4-70-0/8) is Mac Jones’s BFF WR, right now. The season started with Meyers as his BFF…then there was a small stretch where Kendrick Bourne looked like he had made his move, but now it’s back to Meyers – 6.0 rec. (9.0 targets), 61.5 yards, 0.25 TDs the last 4 weeks of the season…a WR2-2.5 in PPR. That’s about Meyers’ ceiling.
Meyers ends the season #16 in total catches (83) among WRs this season. If you looked at the top 20 names in catches at WR this season, they would all make instant sense to you…with Meyers being the one surprise.
-- Damien Harris (11-37-1, 4-34-0/40 is back healthy and is the clear lead back when he is…he still shares, but the guy Belichick leans on/wants is Harris of the RBBC.
Brandon Bolden (7-46-1, 2-20-1/2) had a nice game as the #2 back this game, but I think he bumped Rhamondre Stevenson (4-34-0, 1-2-0/2) this game, in part, because of the circumstances of this game…NE got down quick and was in a lot of hurry up/pass game mode, and that’s Bolden’s domain.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Duke J
15 = Lindsay
07 = Gaskin
55 = Agholor
52 = Meyers
36 = Bourne
12 = Harry
30 = Harris
28 = Bolden
09 = Stevenson
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: 49'ers 27, Rams 24 (By Ross Jacobs)
The Rams led this game 17-3 at halftime. They were outscored 24-7 in the second half and it was absolutely no fluke. If anything they were lucky to have the lead they did early on.
LA moved the ball well early on, scored a couple times, then capitalized on a short punt by SF to take that massive lead. The 49'ers barely had the ball to do anything with it.
That all changed in the 2nd half as SF stormed back to tie the game. Then with just a few minutes remaining they were about to take the lead, but a Garoppolo pass into coverage was tipped by Jalen Ramsey who somehow came down with the ball. The Rams would go down the field for a 7 point lead.
The 49'ers next drive failed and they punted it back to LA who only needed to run out the final 2:30 to win. They couldn't and SF got the ball back with about 1:30 left. They went right down the field to tie the game and we were headed to OT.
SF won the toss and took their first possession down the field for a FG. LA ball to tie or win and we got a sequence of plays that encapsulates the problems that I believe will cripple the Rams in the playoffs.
First, OBJ ran the wrong route and tried to catch a pass one handed that was intended for Kupp. He got a second pass thrown at his feet because Stafford was under a ton of pressure and couldn't get it there. And on the final game sealing play, Stafford heaved a ball deep for OBJ but underthrew it and Ambry Thomas came back to the ball for the easy INT while OBJ just stared.
We have said all along that this OBJ experiment was doomed to fail. We said it while the media and fans crowed about how awesome OBJ was for catching a TD pass every game while the Browns struggled to complete a pass.
And I say it again now: OBJ is not a very good receiver anymore. He's ok. He can catch easy slant passes for TD's when they are thrown to him from the 2 yard line. That's all he is really good for and he is an absolute drag on this offense because Stafford is still trying to force him the ball like he's a star. He's not even close.
Here are his stats in 8 games since joining the Rams:
27 catches on 48 targets (56.2%) for 305 yards (11.3 ypc) and 5 TD's
Here are his stats in 6 games with the Browns:
17 catches on 34 targets (50%) for 232 yards (13.6 ypc) and 0 TD's
With the Rams he has averaged 38.1 ypg in one of the most prolific passing attacks in the league. With the Browns he averaged 38.7 ypg.
So tell me...what's the difference? There is none other than he went to an offense that scores a lot and he incidentally caught a couple of short TD's. He hasn't produced any more than he did in Cleveland and that's with Stafford instead of Baker and Kupp to take coverage away from him.
We were promised a superstar performance by OBJ with the Rams. He would take the offense to new heights! The media sold you a steaming bag of crap the same as they always do. OBJ is done, has been done. And if anything he is holding back this offense because they still don't realize it. Every pass sent OBJ's direction is a wasted opportunity.
The Rams could have gotten dozens of other receivers that were available all over the league that could produce better than this, and yet they fell for the sucker's bet on OBJ because their beach bum GM is too busy sipping pina coladas to actually watch tape.
If the Rams don't figure this out soon they are going to get their asses handed to them in the playoffs. They might anyways because they are a soft team and Stafford can't handle the pressure in big moments. Shockingly, he's the exact same guy in LA that he was in Detroit. Go figure.
The Rams drop to the 4th seed with this loss and it might cost them. I know the Cardinals haven't been playing very good lately, but they beat the brakes off of LA early in the season. They are capable of it. The Rams offensive line is dying and I bet they don't hold up well under heavy pressure from Chandler Jones and company. And you know what Stafford does when under pressure....
I've spilled a lot of ink on the Rams so far, but let's talk about the 49'ers. They've won 8 of their last 11 games including beating the Rams twice. But looking back over those games...not that impressive. They did beat the Bengals but that's the only other good win. All the rest are against the dregs of the NFL.
I'm not saying the 49'ers are a bad team. But they are a bit fraudulent and should have their hands full with the Cowboys (who also have beaten up a weak schedule but done it far more impressively). Their front seven really gave the Rams fits here, and they'll need a repeat performance if they want to beat Dallas.
Fantasy Notes
--Deebo Samuel obviously had a monster year, but can we expect a repeat performance next year? I think I'm going to pass next year for a few reasons.
First, RC and I both recommended selling him off hot after his blazing start. He was racking up 100 yard games and multiple TD's left and right, but we both felt like they were somewhat fluky performances. The long TD's were happening because a DB fell down or crashed into each other. Random stuff.
But then he got moved to RB and the TD's kept flowing. He scored 14 total TD's this year, 8 of them on the ground. It was an astonishing and impressive performance, but do we really think he's going to match that again next year?
What if Trey Lance takes over? How does that affect him?
I'm not drawing any hard conclusions right now because there's still a lot up in the air, but for the price I'll probably be looking at other WR's in his range.
--Now I expect there will be a lot of people fading Cooper Kupp next year for various reasons, and while some of those things are good arguments, I have no problem taking him again, especially because I doubt he'll even be the first receiver drafted.
Normally the top scorer one season automatically becomes the top drafted guy the next, but in this case I wouldn't be surprised if Kupp was the #2-3-4 WR instead.
I doubt he matches the raw stats from this year but only because it takes so much going right to set records like this. Will he have perfect conditions again? He might. We know he's talented enough to do it once. He's also Stafford's bff and is going to get a million targets.
The only real question is: can he match the TD mark again? We saw Davante Adams go from 17 last year to 11 this year. It doesn't sound like much, but it makes the difference between being a top 5 guy and being THE guy. Unfortunately, there's no way to know unless you have reason to believe the offense will score far fewer TD's as a whole.
So the short answer is: yes, I'll be drafting Kupp a lot next year especially if I get a discount on him. All the conditions are in place for a repeat performance. Don't go chasing the shiny new thing in favor of what is working. Remember our lessons on Derrick Henry this year.
--Jauan Jennings had himself a monster game on the stat sheet. It was a complete random outburst. He's an ok receiver, but one TD was a trick pass from Deebo and the other he got lost in coverage with the defense chasing Aiyuk. He was barely even targeted until the last 5 minutes of the game. Nothing to see here.
--Likewise, you can forget about any options behind Kupp and OBJ with the Rams. Van Jefferson is back to being a decoy/occasional deep ball guy since the team thinks OBJ is their Woods replacement. And Ben Skowronek is just too unathletic to even get open. Man, if only they hadn't wasted their 2nd round pick on a diminutive receiver that can't even get on the field....
--Cam Akers is back somehow and logged a few snaps here although he was clearly still behind Michel in the running game. I bet that changes soon. Michel looks as stiff as ever, and McVay has to get his love-child back on the field.
He looked a little tentative which isn't surprising since he hasn't played football in months. But other than that he was moving ok. I've never been that impressed with his athletic ability but he should be fine once they start jamming him carries. It might even be this week against the Cardinals if things get dicey, but I bet they try to get him one more semi-light game before going to him full-time. Best guess is split between him and Michel but with Michel as a slight lead, say 70-30 or 60-40.
--I've written more words this year on Trey Lance than any other player by far, and to date we still haven't seen much with him. I've grown quite nervous about how he's developing but it's still only year 1.
However, I'm beginning to have doubts about next year as well, especially if the 49'ers make a deep playoff run. I didn't believe it would happen, but Shanahan is digging his heels in and is not going to play Lance until he absolutely has to. He has no problem letting Trey ride the bench for another year or two. I'm absolutely certain.
We're going to have to see how this develops, but I am officially nervous. Trey will get his shot eventually, no doubt about it, but could it be 2023 before he does? Maybe. I think it's on the table now.
IDP Notes
--I've seen a lot written this week about what a great signing Arden Key has been because he has 6.5 sacks on the year. I've covered the 49'ers several times this year and he's never stood out to me, so I watched him extra close here and.....nothing. I don't see it. He's just another rotational guy on a deep defensive line.
His “half sack” here was only credited to him because he reached out and touched the QB as another guy wrapped him up. He was literally the least impressive D-lineman I saw for SF. Hard pass from me.
Snap Counts of Interest
52 = Michel
13 = Akers
64 = Kupp
51 = OBJ
45 = Jefferson
17 = Skowronek
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Browns 21, Bengals 16
The Browns sat some starters, while others played part of the game…and they went with Case Keenum at QB (as they should). They were playing like a team ready to get to their vacations.
The big question was – what would the Bengals do in this game with their starters? Most playoff teams in a position to sit starters Week 18, didn’t. Whether that was teams long since out of the race or even teams only playing for a minor seed change ran the risk of putting their guys out there in harm’s way and (for the playoff bound teams) not giving them a week of extra healing. I really applaud the Bengals for not getting caught up in that and them just sitting key players…in fact, they sat almost every starter.
I’m becoming a bigger and bigger Bengals fan by the day. I think they are the best team in the AFC playoffs, but it’s probably not their time yet due to a lack of experience even being in the playoffs. They should be the AFC favorites in 2022, even if they get bounced from the playoffs 1st-round this year. I can already tell you, my Super Bowl pick for the 2022 season is the Bengals…and we’ll see if free agency and/or the draft changes that thinking.
This game was not taken seriously by either team, but we did get a lot of fresh RBs getting extra work, especially for the Bengals. I was hoping Chris Evans would get more work and he did.
I’ve got five player notes below from this game, four of them concerning RBs.
One quick 2021 season ending team/coaching note – I should’ve known better on the Browns. I didn’t love them as much as everyone else did going into this season, but I still gave them respect…too much respect. I wasn’t a big Kevin Stefanski fan when he got the job, but then they had a sweet 2020 season and I thought maybe I was wrong…but 2021 has me back to ‘same old Browns’ thinking. With the Browns and Ravens and Steelers all fading away, it’s even more extra juice for the Bengals to dominate in 2022.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- With this rewatch, I mostly wanted to see Chris Evans (7-35-0, 4-24-1/5) at work. He’s been hurt/out for a while as Mixon-Perine ran the show. Week 18 was an excellent time to let Evans get work. And again, I point out, this is what Week 18 is supposed to be for…for teams who have little/nothing to play for. Not ‘finishing strong’ B.S., which is the single most ridiculous thing in a league inundated with ridiculous things. You should be letting younger players who haven’t played as much during the season get extended work, to evaluate them when you can AND keep your stars out of games with nothing to play for to keep them safe.
By contrast, the first example off the top of my head…the Atlanta Falcons. Nothing to play for Week 18. Yet, Matt Ryan plays the entire game…the young backup QBs don’t see one snap. #3 RB Qadree Ollison gets ONE CARRY…and he takes it for a 19-yard TD run…and never sees another carry after. I mean, you have to have a mental deficiency as a coach to play a Week 18 that way – but it’s Arthur Smith, the mental deficiency has been on display all season, as well as the lack of any business or common sense being present. He just has a giant silver spoon sticking out of his ass from the opportunity he’s afforded (from birth to college to the NFL) by being a product of a wealthy family.
So, you might think I’m over-applauding something so nonsensical like ‘sitting starters’ and ‘playing backups’ – but that’s because you have a functioning brain. It’s so simple to us…but it’s not obvious to them. The NFL coaching staffs, and management live in a different world (and, thus, they all get fired every 2-3 years for their failures). NFL organizations want to ‘finish strong’ over managing assets.
Darrell Bevell, who has no chance of ever getting hired as an NFL head coach, he rolls out Trevor Lawrence (the supposed franchise) in Week 18 in hopes of getting a win and impressing management to get the Jacksonville job (which I can't blame him, what else does he got?)…so he puts players at risk in a meaningless game and then, even worse, he wins the game and almost costs his franchise the #1 pick – but what does Bevell care? He won’t be there next year or his only chance, to him, is if he wins this game), so everything is currently disposable to him. So, if Lawrence tore his ACL, Bevell doesn’t really care. Why wouldn’t the GM or management step in ahead of that? Why…because they want to ‘finish strong’, that’s why.
Where was I? Oh, Chris Evans looks really really good. I didn’t see much in him studying his Michigan tape pre-Draft 2021, and he had the career output to warrant that skepticism of him in college…but then he had a great Pro Day to at least open the door back up with me from an analytics/metrics scouting standpoint (hey, maybe Michigan was the problem…not Evans?)…and then he looked really good in the 2021 preseason…and then looked good in his 2021 regular season spots of work. I’m very impressed with what I see from Chris Evans. He is looking legit…looking like a guy who if Joe Mixon got hurt, Evans would step in and about put up the same kind of output. Evans kinda even looks and moves and plays like a slightly smaller Mixon.
When will Evans get a real chance to work in the NFL…who knows? Mixon is obviously not going anywhere soon…but if an RB injury arises…but top 5-10 pick RBs never get hurt in Fantasy Football, so who am I kidding?
-- But the best back, currently, in this game was D’Ernest Johnson (25-123-1, 1-10-0/1). He is so ready to be a lead back somewhere, but he will likely never get that chance on purpose. His instincts running the ball…his toughness, breaking tackles…in this game, excellent. He’s ready. But he’s an undrafted free agent, so he doesn’t get chances like the major conference duds who were drafted will get in the NFL.
Five things about D’Ernest come to mind here…
1) While many are patting me on the back for getting onto Rashaad Penny and D’Onta Foreman ahead of crowd this FF season, a.k.a. the two main RBs who helped take people to FF titles in 2021, there are some who keep saying/thinking that they only won their FF titles because of luck (in the form of Penny and/or Foreman). Some people are looking back on the season trying to figure out how they won their division/got a bye/won a title when their redraft early pick group got hurt/blew up (bad)…and they see Penny and Foreman as unplanned luck.
None of these ‘luck’ moves are luck. They were on purpose. Many of them came from years of watching preseason NFL and college scouting tape and not forgetting who they were, keeping tabs on them after everyone wrote them off…all the hours and hours and days and months of watching, noting, studying…you don’t know when or what player in what week it will pay-off on.
No greater example than D’Ernest Johnson. How many of you used him that Thursday night game midseason where he broke out with 100+ yard rushing and scored 20+ PPR points? I promoted/pushed him as a top 13-18 RB for the week. I knew from having watched him play the prior couple preseasons and reporting out/bellyaching that he deserved more of a chance and that some other team should grab him while he was on the Browns practice squad, as he was free to take by any NFL team years ago. I knew D’Ernest from scouting. I pushed D’Ernest that week he was getting a clear start without Chubb-Hunt. Everyone said, “Are you sure about this?” Many FF twitter analysts made fun of D’Ernest as a possible ‘start’ that week and/or they told people not to consider him as a start.
Many of your runs to a #1 seed/title this season were not just ‘lucky’ grabs of Penny and Foreman before everyone else, but you already forgot we used D’Ernest at just the right time ahead of everyone else too. It’s one thing to grab/roster the RB forced to play because all the ‘real’ RBs got hurt, so you take a chance on adding them…it’s another to go get them with a passion and then USE them at the right time.
Such a brilliant scouting call of the moment…and then I immediately said to turn on him/trade him after (unless you owned Chubb) because I also know NFL teams don’t give these guys opportunities when the ‘real’ starters are back, and now that all the pundits had ‘discovered’ D’Ernest AFTER his big game on cable television they were hot to trot on their new discovery…one you already had and used in their face ahead of them. And then trading him (if you could) during his media heat moment also ended up being the right call. We played it like a fiddle, from knowing the D’Ernest scouting/capabilities going in to knowing what the media reactions meant we should do after – and you may have already forgotten about it.
And those who dismissed the pickup/didn’t get to use the D’Ernest call that one week…you don’t know what I’m talking about because you didn’t feel it firsthand, so it’s not even a credit in my scouting account. So, I sound like an ass for beating my own chest over it – but these things matter. All the scouring of tape and data…when it pays off for such a time as this, it’s my favorite moment(s) of the season. Those that did use him…I don’t want us to forget that moment mattered in the tapestry that was the construct of a FF title this season.
People who didn’t win a title, and some who did, are doing an autopsy of the season and are fixated on all the things that went wrong that if only they drafted ____ in round one, and ____ in round two, etc., and making proclamations on letdown players like ‘I’ll never draft ____ again’. What you won’t likely remember in your 2021 season autopsy are all the little opportunities you had…little moves you made correctly, with urgency, to help fix the problems from a key injury or player disappointment, etc. You’ll ignore them or dismiss them as luck – which is a slap in the face to both of us. Finding opportunity isn’t contained to just the preseason draft. You draft 15-20+ players before the season starts…you then make 2-3-4x that in player transactions throughout the actual season. In-season adjustments and scouting matter as much/more than the preseason (re)draft.
Your support allows me to find and study and consider the D’Ernest Johnson’s and D’Onta Foreman’s way ahead of your competition. It’s easy to pick/debate between Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson…anyone can make a case for or against all the top names. The person who knows the least in your league can print off a free draft ranking off a website and land ‘names’, and then those names might go on to do great that season and don’t get hurt or COVID…while you studied for a billion hours and took Christian McCaffrey or J.K. Dobbins or Saquon Barkley or Calvin Ridley, etc. and it wasn’t so hot. But what those ‘free advice off the internet’ FF players don’t know/aren't reading about to consider is D’Ernest Johnson’s history and capabilities…until it’s too late, you already got them. You adjusted to fix mistakes, replace injuries, build depth…while everyone else usually goes as far as their original roster will take them.
Enjoy the Penny-Foreman run of 2021…but don’t forget about D’Ernest. These guys symbolize all that we’re about. All the work and study we put in. You had to consider the info and act upon it…that’s you job, you did that…it’s not ‘luck’. Gold miners process tons of square footage of dirt just to find little gold flecks. Same with football scouting. You have to process a lot of empty/useless dirt to find the little payoffs. I’m just the guy for the job. It’s your land…your gold mine…let me help you in the dirty work of digging up the earth looking for that treasure.
2) D’Ernest Johnson is the poster child for scouting analytics being worthless. Anyone who says that the Pro Day and Combine data is the best way to scout…would never find or know or believe in D’Ernest. I know, my computer scouting models didn’t like him at all coming out of college.
Is it better to scout via analytics/metrics or tape studying?
‘Neither’ is the answer. Both together is the answer…and you need time served doing both to understand how they are different and how they do work together. Random fan running a plot chart on air yards of WRs correlated to Fantasy performance for some website is nice…but it’s a small cog of a giant machine that needs experienced interpretation.
Ten+ years of learning…and learning something new every year within an ever changing NFL landscape – you can’t run a basic datapoint and go ‘see!’ on players/prospects. Sometimes it is that easy, but most times it is not. I knew D’Ernest because my computer data said he sucked as a NFL Draft prospect, but my trained/experienced eyes that watched EVERY preseason game saw something different to make me go back and reconsider.
Years of tilling soil paid off for just one week in 2021…and that may have been the difference of a midseason win or a loss, and eventually maybe the difference of a BYE or not a BYE, etc.
3) D’Ernest Johnson is a restricted free agent now, which means the Browns have to pay him really well to keep him another year…but NFL teams can make him offers as well, which if he is signed by another team the receiving team might have to cough up a draft pick in exchange. Depends upon how much of a tender Cleveland puts on him.
Cleveland will probably be forced to either put a ‘right of first refusal’ tender on him, which gives Cleveland the chance to match (and thus keep the player) any offer – but if they don’t match it, they lose the player with no compensation.
Cleveland could put a 2nd-round tender on DJ, and that comes with a big raise (for an RB) and if someone else signs him the Browns would get a 2nd-round pick. No team is paying D’Ernest AND giving up a 2nd-round pick to do it. Thus, the Browns just retained a running back for one more year at a very high cost…and they don’t need more RBs on their roster/payroll.
Johnson should refuse any contract extension offer from Cleveland outside of that because they will try to #3 RB lowball him. He should just wait it out, and he’ll probably get expensively (for an RB) buried on the Browns in some way for 2022…then goes to a true free agency in 2023. Guys like him usually take the bigger bump money now vs. betting on themselves in a year. A lot can happen in a year.
4) The situation might be such that the Browns pay Johnson decently, and then trade Kareem Hunt instead. Thus, D’Ernest is the new Hunt for the Browns working with Chubb.
One of D’Ernest or Hunt needs to go…and probably will. The Browns would have too much payroll into their backfield if they retain D’Ernest…like $15M+ worth of RB payroll. The Patriots will have less than $3M in their backfield and they had the better running game in 2021.
5) The final note…yes, Nick Chubb, who was not 100%, started for the Browns in this meaningless game and he played about 25% of it. Why? I have no idea, except to reiterate how stupid NFL head coaches are.
-- The Browns could have gotten Demetric Felton (1-6-0, 2-18-1/2) more touches out of the backfield in a game like this, but why let promising young players have more time when you can push banged up, expensive franchise backs in meaningless games instead?
I wanna say Felton will be the #3 back if needed in 2022, if/when one of Hunt or D’Ernest is gone…but that would be using logic. Felton looked like a real playmaker right off the bat for the Browns in 2021, and then he was barely used the rest of the season. Felton’s best game was Week 2 where he played 3 snaps, caught 2 passes, one of them a short pass where he ran through several defenders to score a long TD. That moment warranted no extra touches after that and no extra time in Week 18. Felton played 5 snaps this game…and scored another TD. Unbelievable.
Felton can play.
Kevin Stefanski is another typical ‘no business sense’ coach, classically/institutionally trained within the NFL system, with an Ivy League degree. He’s just like all the other coaches in the NFL. 2020 season was a blip.
-- Trayveon Williams (9-29-0, 1-4-0/2) got extra work here…the #4 RB getting way more work than Felton. I thought Williams had some hopes when I scouted him out of Texas A&M years ago, but he’s only clung on to a fringe roster spot for years with rare opportunity at touches. He missed his window. He’s not as good as Evans or D’Ernest or Felton (comparing the RBs in this game).
-- I watched every play Browns LB Clay Johnston (11 tackles) worked in this game, because I thought Johnston might have some NFL/IDP hope as a solid tackling, decent college prospect a couple years ago…but he is bouncing around the league every year.
I watched all his plays here, and I’ve watched him some in-season and his preseasons the past two years – he just doesn’t have ‘it’. I’m not watching anymore until he makes me somehow.
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = D’Ernest
30 = Chris Evans
24 = Trayveon Williams
16 = Chubb
06 = Andy Janovich
05 = Felton
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season sign ups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.