(By Ross Jacobs)
This game was going according to plan until about a minute left in the first half. The score was 17-7 Rams, and they were on cruise control, shutting down the Panthers offense and driving down the field at will on offense.
Then Carolina went right down the field in a 2-minute offense, a very normal occurrence these days, and suddenly it was just a 3-point game at halftime. The Panthers were scrapping and totally fired up at this point.
Then the 2nd half started and the Panthers chewed up a ton of clock on a long drive that ended with them tying the game. The Panthers players were exuding nothing but confidence and energy. They were here to fight and were completely unafraid of the Rams.
The 4th quarter started with a 3-point Rams lead, but the Panthers struck with a big play to Jalen Coker and all the momentum was with them. They could feel the upset just minutes away.
But credit the Rams, they have ice water in their veins. Before that TD it seemed like they were still on autopilot. They weren’t taking non-seriously, but they looked like they thought they could flip a switch if they needed to. They were right.
Stafford and Puka went right to work and moments later they were in the lead again. They got the ball back and were seemingly in control…
Until the special teams let them down again. Carolina recovered a blocked punt, punched in the go-ahead TD, and suddenly the Rams had their backs to the wall, two and a half minutes left down by 4.
But once again Stafford would not be denied and a surgical drive later he capped it off with a perfect pass to Colby Parkinson who made a great snag for the TD.
Carolina had a bit of time left for a potential game-tying field goal but couldn’t get it done and the Rams escaped with a win.
Watching this game back some things become clear.
We talked last week about how the Rams defense had suddenly become a problem. That is a large reason for their drop from obvious top team in the league to more even with the field. From Week 13 onwards the defense has just been plain bad. They’ve allowed 27+ points 5 of their last 7 including 31+ in 4 of 7.
Some of that is due to the teams they played, but there’s clearly been a drop in performance. The Rams team from Week 1 to Week 12 was by far the best team in the league. The Rams team since then is more like top 5 ish.
Losing the #1 seed in that Seahawks game was kind of fluky, but at the same time it wasn’t. It was the result of whatever has gone wrong with the defense and not being able to protect a lead.
But they do still have the best offense in the league, and thus they are still firmly in the mix for the Superbowl. Stafford just needs a stop or two from the defense to give this team a good chance to win. They cannot be considered the clear favorites anymore though.
They’ll play the Bears this week in Chicago and that game will likely come down to who has the ball last. Both teams have good offenses (the Rams are better) and both teams struggle on defense. A turnover for either side would be massive. I still think the Rams should be the marginal favorites and I think they will ultimately win the game and face the Seahawks for the NFC championship as I’ve predicted for a while now.
The Panthers played a respectable game. They are a scrappy little team, totally unafraid of anyone, very well-coached by Dave Canales. If the front office can continue adding talent to this team they could be the group nobody wants to play. How far they can go with Bryce Young at the helm is the question though.
RC Note: I will add...from the point Carolina was down 14-0 to the final whistle -- the Panthers were the better team. Out physical’d, out coach/strategized the Rams for like three quarters...had Jaycee Horn not been out the final 10 minutes with a concussion, Carolina may have won this game in the end. They also lost their left tackle on the 1st or 2nd series. And STILL Carolina was on the brink of a win.
Very subtly...the Panthers could’ve gone all the way in the NFC. Unlikely with Bryce Young over a 3-game stretch, but it speaks to the power of the Carolina coaching and O-Line...and BEST defense in the NFC, after Seattle. The Panthers are a better QB away from being a top NFC team, but they won’t get rid of Bryce...so, they are likely stuck as a playoff team that can’t go more than a win, ever.
Player Notes…
-- The Panthers seemingly moved back to Chuba Hubbard as the lead over Rico Dowdle here, but I believe it was a game script issue. They got down pretty quickly and went into all-pass mode. Hubbard is the shiftier, pass game back of the two.
I would expect Carolina to start next season with them in the same kind of split we saw to end the season, Dowdle as the two-down banger and Hubbard as the spell guy and 3rd down receiving back.
RC NOTE: Not gonna happen. Rico Dowdle is leaving in free agency...he is very unhappy with how the season ended with his push back to a split role, then a diminished role after the 200+ yard games bonanza he had midseason. Canales is all about Chuba Hubbard as his ‘heart & soul’...don’t take that FF-lightly.
I project, next season, Hubbard will lead with Jonathon Brooks or Trevor (not Travis) Etienne as the #2 backup/relief to Chuba.
-- Tetairoa McMillan is now the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year kind of by default. Nobody else ran away with the award in the eyes of the public, but he’s been steady all year long. I don’t have strong feelings on it either way. He had a good year, over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs and would have had more were it not for being held back by Bryce. RC and I have said it for over a year now…Tet is a star.
-- This game was also the “breakout” game for Jalen Coker in the eyes of many.
But let’s not get carried away because it happened to come in a playoff game against a bad secondary. I like Coker as much as the next guy, but he’s still the #2 here. He’s not passing McMillan on the depth chart.
Coker averaged 4 targets per game this year and finished the season with less than 400 yards and just 3 TDs (albeit in just 11 games). Those are not breakout numbers and one game in the playoffs doesn’t change it. This is still a low volume passing game led by one of the worst starting QBs in the league and McMillan is the dominant target hog. There’s not a lot of room here for Coker to suddenly become a steady force for fantasy no matter how talented you think he is and he is talented; I’m not denying that.
RC NOTE: Correct. It’s sad. McMillan and Coker are so talented, but they will be in a low output passing game trying to become stars, and if one does...it is Tet.
IDP Notes…
-- Nate Landman has become a problem just a month after he landed a big contract extension with the team. This is why you don’t pay big money to off-ball linebackers unless they are exceptionally good players, particularly against the pass…which Landman is not. In fact, he’s terrible against the pass and the Panthers abused the zones behind him all game. He also isn’t athletic enough to make tackles in space.
I’m not sure what the solution is after handing him that contract though (RC NOTE: turning to 2025 UDFA Shaun Dolac in 2026 may be the solution).
-- In addition to Landman, I can say that Quentin Lake is struggling as well and was a big part of the reason Coker went off. If I was the Rams I would replace Lake with Cobie Durant on the outside, put Roger McCreary in the slot, and make Lake the rotational guy that spells the others on the outside.
One of these days they really need to make a serious investment into the position and stop with this cheap rotation thing they like to do. Corner is not the spot to try to save money.
-- I also want to mention rookie Josaiah Stewart as he played nearly 50% of the snaps this game, his highest of the year.
I liked him pretty well coming out of Michigan this year. RC wasn’t a huge fan. He’s small and not the most athletic guy ever, but boy is he physical and energetic. He’s the poster child for the qualities the Rams look for in players.
I would say his play here was adequate. He’s still a young guy and learning, but he played with the same physicality as in college. He’s a power rusher despite his small frame, like a mini-me version of Jared Verse. He’s never going to pile up a ton of sacks, but he will play with intelligence, discipline, and physicality. He’ll set the edge and collapse the pocket. The Rams have an excellent rotation of three guys between Stewart, Verse, and Byron Young.
