Another game over the playoff weekend where either team could’ve won, one of the four (of 5) games where it came down to the last minute, and a fluky-ish play ended it.
I’ll remember this game as the time Buffalo had first-and-goal from the 1-yard line with one minute left and had to decide whether to take a knee and make Jacksonville burn their final time out, and then try to plunge for a TD...or whether they should just take the gift TD tight away that Jacksonville was gonna allow them to have so the Jags could preserve their lone remaining timeout for a final one minute drive where they only needed a field goal to tie it.
On the spot, live, I thought it was a mistake to go for the TD so quickly, but in retrospect, I agree with the call. Jacksonville having one minute left to get in field goal position with the league’s best deep ball kicker? An extra timeout lost or a few seconds burned really wouldn’t have made a huge difference. Two middle of the field completions would have gotten JAX to midfield+ in 30+ seconds.
But I do think Sean McDermott's job was on the line with that decision, whether he or ownership realized at the time or not. I think McDermott is under pressure that he has not delivered the past few years. Had Jacksonville used the final minute with their timeout (because Buffalo scored quick) and gone right down the field and scored a game-winning TD or sent it to overtime and then Jacksonville won -- all we’d be talking about this week was the ‘stupid’ maneuver McDermott pulled scoring too quickly and how he’s been unable to get Josh Allen over in the playoffs, and this was GONNA be the year to do it because for some reason people think that Patrick Mahomes not being in the playoffs matters still...like THAT was the reason we excuse Allen and McDermott. The guy from the State Farm commercials with Meghan Trainor...it’s all his fault.
But Trevor Lawrence came out on the ensuing drive and threw an ill-advised pass into tight coverage that got knocked away and went right to Cole Bishop for an easy interception and ‘ball game’. Had that pass just gotten knocked away to the ground or the DB dropped the easy pick, as they usually do, there still would’ve been a ton of time for Jacksonville to go tie or win that game still.
Almost every game in the NFL from about Week 4 of this season onto the next 3 to 10 years are going to be coin flip/complete parity games that are always close going down to the wire and the games winner/loser is separated by fluky turnovers or missed opportunities at the turnover (DB drops a pick right in their hands, fumble bounces the wrong way) or off a referee’s bizarre penalty call, or from a bad booth review back in New York. The teams themselves are ‘even’...they are subject to their injury report and the penalties or not penalties and whims of football life. Analyzing the teams/matchups down to the n-TH degree and highly debating the matchups are a waste of time in 99% of the games coming up in our future lifetime...and all the remaining games in the playoffs now, for sure. This game, the entire playoff weekend really, supported my ‘everything has changed’ thesis. In no way was Buffalo definitively better than Jacksonville here. Either team could’ve won this game. I’m gonna say that about 99%+ of all games from now until I retire.
-- People might walk away from this game watch thinking the Buffalo Bills defense won this game for them. I don’t necessarily believe that’s the case. This was the typical new era NFL game with NFL defenses unable to really stop opposing offenses with any regularity.
Had the late game tipped INT not happen at the end of the game, Jacksonville probably would’ve likely gone down and kicked a field goal to get to 27 points and probably would’ve scored more in OT. Buffalo’s defense wasn’t anything special.
Buffalo is weak against the run and Jacksonville attacked that with 23 carries for 154 yards and 6.7 yards per carry. Denver is gonna try to run all over them this weekend...but that’s not Denver’s strength either. If Buffalo can just get the game where the opponent, worst case, has to pass down the field in a hurry late to win -- the Bills are gonna have a good shot to keep progressing. If a good run game team gets a lead and can keep on running it down the Bills throat...Buffalo might be/will be in trouble.
-- Trevor Lawrence (18-30 for 207 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs, 6-31-0) didn’t have his best passing game, and the Bills have pretty decent pass defense, so it’s not a shock...but Trevor did still throw for 3 TDs...but Trevor blew it in the end. That was a terrible throw decision of the last series by Trevor. He should’ve never have thrown into that tight window over the middle at that stage. He didn’t need to do that/force that right then. He could’ve thrown it away and still had plenty of time to go not that far to get into field goal range.
When the game got to crunch time, Trevor wilted...as he does. The Jags have had a crumbling offensive line play later into the season and the Buffalo Bills have shown a good pass defense most all season. So, in an obvious/known passing situation, Trevor got got.
Before we pile on Trevor and make fun of him, because I really don’t like him as a QB, he was one of the best QBs in the past six weeks or so of the season and they won a bunch of games in a row and got Jacksonville within a shot of a #1 seed...beating eventual #1 seed Denver a few weeks ago.
If you think Trevor is ‘bad’, it only reinforces my ‘everything is changing’ theory that most all NFL QBs are now good/competent and they are really not what determines wins and losses (which team has the better QB It’s the offensive line and the coaching that matters more now and going forward. We’re moving into a new era.
-- One of the two biggest things that stood out to me from this game, the main one, is the continued rise of Parker Washington (7-107-1/12) as the Jaguars best WR.
I don’t even think it’s debatable now. It’s over. No more discussion. Washington is the most talented WR that the Jaguars have. But that doesn’t necessarily mean what you think or hope for FF 2026+…no more than you can be sure that Michael Wilson being obviously 100 times more talented than Marvin Harrison Jr. is gonna matter the way it should in 2026+.
Washington’s been on fire the last four weeks of the season (6.5 rec., 10.3 targets, 113.5 yards, 0.75 TDs per game) and then when you look at this game, this most important game of the season for Jacksonville, Washington shined again, was the focus again with 12 targets while Brian Thomas Jr. got two whole targets this game and while Jakobi Meyers got a massive contract extension a month+ ago and then has fallen off the face of the Earth, getting four targets here and just one catch. You cannot be a serious #1 WR for a team and in their first playoff game, the most important game of the season, and you have one catch…that just can’t be.
And add to that, Travis Hunter never developed his game at WR this season. And then all the money they sunk into Dyami Brown might as well be set on fire…he was inactive for this game because of his general incompetence.
The overview of the 2025 season for Jacksonville at WR...could I summarize it snarkily as: Massive overtrade for Travis Hunter and then failure to develop Hunter as a receiver. Proclaimed in the preseason that BTJ was your WR to build the offense around...and he was a near total disaster this season. Gave Dyami Brown a 1-year, $10M free agent deal and everyone swooned at how savvy that was...and it turns out to have been incredibly stupid. They traded hot for Jakobi Meyers, he had 2-3 good games, they felll in lust, gave him a massive contract extension...and then he rewards you for that with four of his last 5 games under 45 yards receiving in a game?
Tell me again how Liam Coen is an offensive guru and should be Coach of the Year? Maybe he is, because they were somehow the best team in the AFC the second half of the season despite the WR chaos.
I can’t bank on Parker Washington getting his due in 2026 because I look at all the things the Jaguars have done at WR this season and it’s been a total cluster and disaster and them trying to do everything but feature Parker Washington until it couldn’t be denied late in the season. Parker Washington was already showing to be this good right off the bat this season, in training camp, but the Jaguars pushed everybody else ahead of Washington. That’s a serious blight, that’s a serious concern for how this team is being managed on offense going forward…trying to project targets and output for the future for Dynasty and re-draft and everything else from Jacksonville.
This is just one more example of the future of playing fantasy football. Most NFL teams now have (or soon will have) 3-4 good or great or high profile WRs to choose from. Are they gonna spread it around to all of them...making them all random WR2/3s? Will the QB lock in on just one for heavy targets and starve the rest of the WRs (like Seattle)? Is it gonna be way too random to work with any of the Jags’ WRs for FF any given week? That’s why it’s so hard to play fantasy football week-to-week and set a perfect lineup week-to-week because there is so much talent that teams don’t have to rely on their one weapon that they have, now most NFL teams have five and six and seven legit weapons to work with. And the talent is only flooding more and more from the college ranks.
-- The second of the two things that stood out to me from this game study...Bhayshul Tuten (4-51-0) is coming on strong. His brief time in the game here, he was running all over the Bills...and then the Jags just ‘stopped’ with him...just a brief glimpse.
Travis Etienne (10-67-0, 5-49-1/5) has done a fine job, but he’s nothing special...he’s like Chuba Hubbard for Carolina...solid, but if the coach is gonna give him all the touches he’s gonna produce big numbers and get FF owners all excited/hot-and-bothered.
Etienne is in a weird spot over the next 2 months, as now a free agent...
If he’s given a big contract extension by JAX, it’s a massive NFL mistake...but it is locking him in as ‘the guy’ for FF and Tuten is just a lowly/lower touch sidekick a la Sean Tucker to Bucky Irving.
However, if Etienne walks/is kicked into free agency...Tuten is in position to take over. But Jacksonville would very likely draft an RB to run with Tuten as a duo...or sign a veteran hand to be in a duo. I don’t think Tuten is getting to the FF-Holy Grail of being ‘the guy’ getting all the touches in Jacksonville, unless the ‘other guy’ gets hurt to push it forward for a spell in-season. It won’t happen on purpose, I don’t believe right now.
But I can’t imagine Etienne is getting a big contract deal in free agency, from JAX or the rest of the league, with such a big pool of free agent RB talent available this year. So, likely Etienne slinks back to Jacksonville on a friendly/decent deal is my predicted outcome...then Jacksonville is sworn to Etienne (like if they give him a huge contract extension) and then, with a mediocre-ish contract for Travis, an Etienne-Tuten duo is created for 2026 with LeQuint Allen (1-3-0, 1-9-0/1) playing some situational snaps, muddying the waters.
-- I poked some fun/holes in the Jacksonville WR situation earlier, but the Jags have a dream scenario compared to Buffalo.
The Jags WR issue is -- a lot of talent to work with and trying to figure it out. The Bills WR issue is...I’m not sure any one Bills’ WR could start for the Jags on Week 1 of the 2026 season. That’s a sad statement on the Bills scouting and personnel.
I don’t think you have to have three aces at WR for NFL offenses to thrive, but it would be nice to have 1-2 at least. Most teams have 2-3-4 really nice talents at WR on their depth chart to work with. The Bills have solid Khalil Shakir (12-82-0/12)...who would be like the #4-5 WR on the Jags right now...and that’s not a blight on Shakir, he’s solid/OK...but in this era he’s not a real impact starter, he’s just ‘there’/capable. He wouldn’t start over Washington or Meyers, and he’s not like Thomas Jr. to go over him as an outside receiver...and Hunter has 10x the natural talent, but 10x less the savvy of Shakir.
Buffalo possesses Josh Allen for years, and for years they have been grasping and groping, mostly unsuccessfully, to put good+ WRs around him. The Curtis Samuel big contract was a bust. Keon Coleman is a flashy bust. Tyrell Shavers is a backup talent. Gabe Davis, who Jacksonville gave a ton of money to in free agency in 2024, speaking of idiotic things at WR, is a #5-6 type WR in the NFL. Brandin Cooks was an emergency pickup off the NFL trash bin at the end of his career...solid hand, not a starter/impact talent anymore.
Parker Washington is easily the most talented WR on either of these two teams, and I’m not 100% sure Washington will be a starter for JAX next year.
That’s the NFL way...
Snap Counts of Interest:
38 = James Cook (got hurt in game, maybe worse than we knew)
20 = Ray Davis
04 = Frank Gore
45 = Shakir
34 = Shavers
30 = Cooks
27 = Coleman
25 = G Davis
30 = Knox
28 = Kincaid
22 = Hawes
54 = Jakobi
43 = BTJ
40 = P Washington
30 = Etienne
16 = Tuten
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Here’s how GEMINI summarized the game and thinks the top 10 FF takeaways are (and I am running these reports/summaries to get an idea of what the mainstream/what our FF or betting opponents are thinking/being told to think)...
*GEMINI’s thoughts in italics.
In a thrilling Wild Card showdown at EverBank Stadium, the Buffalo Bills edged the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-24, securing their first road playoff victory in 33 years. The game featured a frantic fourth quarter with four lead changes, culminating in a signature Josh Allen performance.
Despite entering the medical tent twice, Allen remained relentless, finishing with 273 passing yards and three total touchdowns. With the Bills trailing 24-20 late in the fourth, Allen orchestrated a 66-yard drive, highlighted by a 36-yard strike to Brandin Cooks. He capped the drive with a 1-yard "Josh Push" touchdown with just 1:04 remaining. Jacksonville’s hopes for a comeback were immediately dashed on the ensuing possession when Tre’Davious White tipped a Trevor Lawrence pass into the hands of safety Cole Bishop for a game-sealing interception.
Jacksonville found success on the ground, outrushing Buffalo 154-79, but two Lawrence interceptions proved fatal. Parker Washington was a standout for the Jaguars, racking up 107 yards and a score, while Khalil Shakir dominated the intermediate area for Buffalo with 12 catches. The win sends the Bills to the Divisional Round, snapping the Jaguars' eight-game winning streak.
Top 10 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Takeaways
- Josh Allen is the 1.01 in Superflex: Even with "lesser" weapons and multiple mid-game injuries, he remains the ultimate fantasy force. His 2+ rushing TD playoff pedigree is unmatched.
RC NOTE: Not sure this game solidified that. But I get that’s probably the perception out there. It’s too soon to say Allen is the 1.01 SuperFlex, but it’s not crazy talk either.
2. Khalil Shakir is the Bills’ True WR1: His 12-reception performance isn't a fluke; he has logged six or more catches in five straight playoff games. He is a high-floor PPR asset for 2026.
RC NOTE: Yeah, who else is there on Buffalo to be the WR1?
3. Parker Washington’s Breakout is Real: 107 yards and a TD on 7 targets. He outshone Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers, making him a priority "buy-high" in dynasty leagues.
RC NOTE: ‘Buy High’?
4. Dalton Kincaid remains a "Big Game" Weapon: His 15-yard TD catch in the fourth quarter cements his status as a top-tier dynasty TE who Allen trusts in the highest-leverage moments.
5. James Cook vs. Elite Fronts: Cook struggled (46 yards) against Jacksonville's #1 run defense. While he's a star, he remains matchup-dependent against elite interior defensive lines.
RC NOTE: Ouch, a swipe at the 2025 rushing leader by A.I.
6. Trevor Lawrence’s Ceiling is Capped by Turnovers: Lawrence looked elite for stretches but the two INTs reflect his ongoing fantasy volatility. He’s a high-end QB2 with QB1 flashes.
RC NOTE: Had the Jags gone down the field late and tied the game or Trevor just not thrown a pick, I bet A.I. would have called him ‘a hot QB1 going into 2026’.
7. Travis Etienne’s Red Zone Usage: His 14-yard TD catch shows his evolution as a three-down back under Liam Coen. He remains a rock-solid RB1 for 2026.
RC NOTE: Ummm...we don’t even know what team he’ll be on next season?
8. Bhayshul Tuten is a Premium Handcuff: The rookie averaged 12.8 yards per carry on limited touches (4/51). He is a must-stash dynasty asset behind Etienne.
9. Brandin Cooks’ Veteran Value: Despite his age, his 36-yard clutch catch proves he still has the speed and trust of a top QB. He’s a cheap "win-now" piece for contenders.
10. The "Liam Coen" Effect: The Jaguars' offense is significantly more explosive and pass-heavy under Coen. Target Jags pass-catchers in 2026 drafts as this unit continues to gel.
RC NOTE: Last season the Jags threw the ball 546 times for 3,477 yards...this year, under Coen, 563 attempts for 3,779. An uptick, but ‘pass heavy’ might not be the right language. It was definitely more explosive/effective...29 TD passes this season, 19 last season. They did score 154 more points on the season, a +9.06 PPG jump. Definitely more efficient.
