Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items to start the days with.
1/12 MON
(7:52amET)
-- Today's Agenda...
Game reports from the playoffs will post daily all week, all complete before the next round starts. Ross is doing the NFC, and I am reporting the AFC (but watching/studying all the games).
FFM news stream page as we get good/interesting intel.
Jeremiyah Love Full Scouting Report 1.0 later today.
== SUNDAY GAMES FIRST REACTIONS ==
BUF-JAX
-- I think Sean McDermott’s job was on the line here, especially if that go-for-TD-quickly call with a minute left would’ve ultimately backfired on him. But Trevor made a bad decision on the first pass of the last gasp drive, the pass got tipped up and turned into a pick...and ball game.
-- Best non-QB on the field this day...the Jags' best WR Parker Washington (7-107-1/12). Four games in a row of Michael Wilson-esque outputs. He has arrived. He is the JAX #1...but a lot of mouths to feed at WR to figure out how to project him in 2026.
-- Jakobi Meyers...1 catch for 12 yards on 4 targets. Jakobi had 2-3 hot games first coming over to JAX, and Parker Washington was hurt some of that time, then the Jags panicked/lusted and gave Meyers a bunch of money based off 3 good games and then he just fell off the face of the earth and Parker Washington became a star.
I have no idea what the Jags are doing managing that team, when I sit back and look at their entire season of moves (we’ll discuss on my game report this week). However, it worked well enough to win the division. I’ll get into more of it on the game report this week.
-- Buffalo is headed to Denver...I don’t think the Bills are that rattled about that. But Buffalo as a -1.5 favorite out of the gates? I don’t know about that. But it is too close to call...we’ll analyze that later in the week.
-- Are the Jags gonna be the favorites in the AFC South for 2026...or 3rd? Where will Houston and Indy be projected...will the public take them lightly? Jacksonville will have a first-place finish schedule for more headwinds.
JAX has NE + DEN + CHI on the schedule for 2026 with their 1st-place finish..
Indy, who was crushing until Dan Jones got hurt/lost, will have a 3rd-place schedule. MIA + KC + MIN
SF-PHI
-- I annoyingly said, all week, that this game was all about Lane Johnson’s health vs. Trent Williams’s health. And when it looked like Lane Johnson was more ‘fine’ and Trent was more ‘questionable’, midweek/Friday, I picked the Eagles to win.
About 10+/- minutes before it became official on Sunday, one of our FFM Discord watchers posted early info on Lane Johnson concerns he was gonna be OUT. At the same time, reports started hitting that Trent Williams was gonna play for sure.
Having to act fast, I placed a bet on the 49ers +5.5. I put my money where my mouth was on these two OL’s impact to the game. And that got me to (4-0) ATS, at this point of the weekend, picking/betting all the games.
The fact that the line/point spread never really moved on the Lane Johnson/Trent Williams reality -- more evidence the football world does not get my new world order of football thinking. We’re trying to make a profit with football information...and thus we are playing against the ‘asleep at the switch’ experts and the Hivemind public that follows them and that holds on to the old axioms about football.
EVERYTHING.
IS.
CHANGING.
It’s happening NOW. It’s been happening for about 3 months or so. Yes, the entire football world changed in three months. Most people will reject that claim. That’s fine. I am playing this football life (FF, betting) against you...and those of us ‘waking up’ to the new reality -- we need people not seeing this...if everyone sees it/believes it, then there would be no opportunity to profit. I/we need deniers...mainstream followers...holders on to the past.
If Lane Johnson were fully healthy...Eagles probably win...the Philly O-C is still employed.
-- I think this loss sets in motion the Eagles ‘folding’ on this current core group. They deserved a chance to defend their crown. They looked wobbly all season, for a ‘top team’.
The first big moves... I think Nick Sirianni keeps his job, and it’s never in doubt. But A.J. Brown is totally done in Philly. *The O-C got fired like 8 seconds after the game ended, so you know Sirianni is safe...he is doing what the owner and GM are demanding he do.
They will send AJB to the highest bidder. And if the offers are close, they will send him to NFL Siberia to spit in his face sent out the door by sending him to like the Jets or Cleveland (if they show interest).
-- The top 5 landing spots for AJ Brown, according to me...
1) PIT...if Tomlin and crew stay employed. An Ole Miss reunion of AJB and DKM in Pittsburgh.
2) NE...where he definitely would want to go.
3) LV...a ton of CAP room and a great need.
4) NYJ...because they are crazy, and this would be crazy of them.
5) NO...maybe Kellen Moore makes a super-compelling offer and thinks he knows how to deal with him after working with him in Philly.
-- George Kittle is done for the season (achilles)...and probably is in danger of not being back to start 2026. Jake Tonges now matters...this week and in 2026.
-- A reason why not (for me) to put a lot of time/effort into scouting a bunch of interior linebacker prospects...the 49ers are down to like their 5th-string group due to mass injury, and in the playoffs they had to run with Garret Wallow (11 tackles, 1 PD) and Eric Kendricks (10 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) here...and it was one of their best LB play games of the season since Fred Warner went down. They kept Saquon fairly well contained as well as Hurts not really running on them.
I’ve always been a Wallow fan, nice to see him get some love/opportunity here.
-- Jauan Jennings catches in games the past 3 CRUCIAL SF games: 2-4-1. All games under 50 yards. I’m not sure what happened...Ricky Pearsall has been out. Out of nowhere Demarcus Robinson had a huge game here. Quinyon Mitchell on JJ probably had a bunch to do with it this game.
This offseason, the 49ers need to draw up an entirely new WR group. The WR free agents are not even close in talent compared to the RB FA pool. Assuming Dallas doesn’t let George Pickens get to free agency. It will need to be trades and/or draft more likely than free agency.
LAC-NE
-- Well, now make it (5-0) ATS for the weekend. Another game you could purely pick with the O-Line comparison. In some ways, this was the easiest pick of the week. My mind just wouldn’t let me bet it because even I am subject to emotions...and still want to hold onto the past too. I just picked NE, didn’t bet it for real.
I so wanted Justin Herbert to put on a Superman cape and go win this game. But what hit him is what hit him ever since Joe Alt went down...11 QB hits, 6 sacks on Herbert in this game. You just can’t beat good teams (or bad teams) with that happening every week.
When Joe Alt played 40% of more of the snaps in games this season, LAC went (5-0). Without Alt at 40%+ (one game at 15%, the rest he was out)...they were (6-7)...losers of their last 3 games (including playoffs). The best team in the NFL in 2025...the uncrowned champions of the 2025 season -- the Chargers if they never lost Rashawn Slater or Joe Alt.
-- Making matters worse for LAC, Omarion Hampton got one carry for -1 yards total this game. He was active but apparently not ‘right’.
-- This takes nothing away from the Patriots, the best team in the AFC. But that only means they are a coin flip favorite/underdog in each game from here. Whatever the final four in the AFC ends up (after MNF) -- every one of them can win the AFC, especially if Houston wins tonight.
-- The Patriots won with the same pattern they always do...the future of NFL offenses -- good QB play (and every team has a good QB), veteran RB leads the way in a duo backfield, and the pass targets are spread all over the place.
-- Ladd McConkey’s total catches in games, the past 5 games: 1-2-4-1-3. That gives me pause on everything LAC in the season to come. You cannot possess Ladd and have those catch counts/lower target levels. Either Herbert is a fool...or Greg Roman/Harbaugh are. McConkey is literally open every play because he’s the best/sharpest route runner ability in the history of the game. LAC was desperate for offense for weeks with O-Line issues...so, Ladd should’ve had 10-15 targets in every game the past month+. But he didn’t...not even close.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
*Some random Xs of interest or comedy to share.
-- Let’s go Steelers!?!?
https://x.com/theponiexpress/status/2010185233069682950?s=43
-- Only 9 times in 50 seasons?
https://x.com/evanhabrams/status/2010152381518852305?s=43
-- The improbability of the Bears comeback...
https://x.com/betweenthenums/status/2010209445998158159?s=43
-- Ben Johnson helping the Bears comeback...
https://x.com/barstoolsports/status/2010172538417275259?s=43
-- The remarkableness of the 2025 Bears...
https://x.com/doug_clawson/status/2010229089379201379?s=43
-- Matt LaFleur is not immune...
https://x.com/thebrohioan/status/2010234657766580505?s=43
-- Dak Prescott is not immune...
https://x.com/haterreport_/status/2010209465992401246?s=43
-- Romeo Doubs did his part to help...
https://x.com/betmgm/status/2010175466674737600?s=43
-- FACTS? It made me do a double take...
https://x.com/TPPSkol/status/2010212554656887093
-- I was kinda thinking the same thing about the Panthers, but I don’t think they’ll be a bottom 5 team...
https://x.com/fammirantetfj/status/2010114897393398199?s=43
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 37 WRs (23 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave, Josh Downs, Christian Watson, Rashee Rice, Michael Pittman, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Parker Washington, Stefon Diggs, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Alec Pierce, Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
DeVaughn Vele, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Jack Bech, Mack Hollins, Kyle Williams, Quentin Johnston, Ryan Flournoy, Keenan Allen, Jalen Nailor, Kayshon Boutte, Malik Washington, Jayden Reed, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
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