RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...
Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items to start the days with.
1/11 SUN
(8:52amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Three playoff games today...Sunday joy.
Wildcard Week projections update if any major changes/happens, but otherwise there hasn’t been any radical changing items. All the games have some higher winds issues with some gusts occasionally, but are otherwise good-to-go.
FFM news items
Game Reports
== SATURDAY GAMES FIRST REACTION ==
1) Both losing teams outplayed, over a 60-minute judgement, the winning teams Saturday.
2) There are 12-teams remaining, and any one of them has a shot to run their table and get to the Super Bowl...even Pittsburgh. Every game from here on in, is mostly a coin flip...the edge to the teams that can stay the least injured. Parity is here...it has been here most of 2025, the football world is not ready to think about it in those terms.
3) We’ll discuss the Dynasty/Fantasy ramifications from these games in game reports next week/all week, every game. Ross is studying and reporting the NFC this playoffs, and I am doing the AFC.
I’ll hit on deeper thoughts on the Dynasty ramifications in the FFM daily notes for subscribers all throughout the playoffs. As I build the early 2026 projections/Dynasty valuations...that will debut in February sometime after the Super Bowl closes.
LAR-CAR
-- The Rams took a quick 14-0 lead, while the Panthers lost their left tackle for the game...and from that point on, Carolina won this game. Won it on the scoreboard (31-20) and won it on the field with my own two eyes.
The Rams scored last to come back to win the game, but Carolina was definitely the better team overall this game...especially when you consider Carolina losing their left tackle early and then losing their star cover corner (Jaycee Horn) for most of the 4th-quarter.
-- A very impressive performance by the Panthers. Dave Canales outcoached Sean McVay, for the second time this season.
The Panthers D-C might have been getting head coaching calls again had they held off the Rams at the end...but it wasn’t to be.
The more I hyperfocus on the Rams down the stretch, the less impressed I am with Sean McVay. I mean, he’s a top of the league type of coach for sure...but not THEE top coach, that I see. Wherever you rank him, Canales is ranked a spot ahead.
-- Carolina had all these holes and issues at linebacker, which Tampa Bay hammered with Cade Otton in Week 18...but the Rams/Stafford just keep throwing downfield and usually ignoring open RBs leaking out and not using the TEs as hard as we’ve seen them do in the past. The Rams didn’t attack the Panthers weakness, they just kept their same game plan as they have had all season...and it’s almost gotten them beat, or beat, their past 4 games.
-- Bryce Young played a smarter game than Matt Stafford...but Stafford just has more talent. You knew there was no way Bryce would lead a scoring drive in the final minute.
-- These cancer-fighting hormone therapies I’m taking really do a number on me. My brain was hallucinating that the Panthers had a stretch in 2025 where Rico Dowdle had back-to-back 200+ yard games and became their starting RB. I mean, that could never happen in real life, right? Or he would have gotten more than 6 touches in this game if that were a true thing that happened.
-- Jalen Coker had been steadily emerging since their last Rams game back in Week 14 (where he went 4-74-1/6). He now has 4 TDs in his last 6 games. This being a solo night game for millions to watch...now he’ll be ‘discovered’ by Dynasty owners across the globe.
-- The Rams are gonna pray that Philly beats SF today...I bet the Rams want a shot to go back to Seattle and finish the job they had robbed from them in Week 16.
GB-CHI
-- Well, I did not think THAT was gonna happen when the Bears were down 21-3 at the half...squandering chance-after-chance to get back into the game prior to the 4th-quarter.
No game captures the essence of what I said about these playoffs, the new NFL...this tournament of 14 -- pretty much any team can go through this tourney. The teams are so close in what they bring to the table, and most importantly the impact of the QB is virtually meaningless anymore because they are all good in different ways. There is no more ‘Brady’ and ‘Manning’ and ‘everybody else’.
A 21-3 Bears deficit, then 214 blown gifted-chances by the Bears to get back into the game, to then scoring 25 points in the 4th-quarter as the Packers kicker misses kick-after-kick. The NFL has achieved what it has wanted for forever...every game is a cliffhanger. Every team has a chance to win any game...even Carolina.
The NFL has changed forever.
Dynasty/Fantasy has changed forever...and we’ll spend the next 8 months studying it and talking about it, more so once we get past the first 2 rounds of the playoffs.
-- We saw two games Saturday...two games in which the losing team played better overall but lost in the final minutes.
Not only has the NFL and Dynasty/Fantasy changed forever...so has betting on football. We’ll discuss that all offseason.
-- I keep saying Caleb Williams is the most ‘dangerous’ QB in the NFL now. He’s a danger to his team off-and-on in the 3rd-quarter and then he is the greatest QB talent as soon as it hits the 4th-quarter.
He showed signs of that last season but was really bad for three quarters and then really good for the final quarter. This season, not bad the first 3 quarters and then epic in the final quarter.
What happens if he progresses again to really good for three quarters...and 4th-quarters won’t matter as much if they’ve wrecked teams by the end of three?
-- Football fandom is funny/fickle...and what we have to strategize to work against because the football Hivemind and their reactions to solo night or playoffs games is the most predictable thing about football...
Jalen Coker 9-134-1/12 on Saturday and the national reaction...he’s the breakout star of the Panthers, better than Tet McMillan.
Colston Loveland 8-137-0/15 on Saturday and the national reaction...Coker is a fading memory, but we still remember some...but let me tell you about this Colston kid, he’s gonna be a top 3-5 TE for 2026...possibly better than McBride-Bowers.
Romeo Doubs 8-124-1/11 on Saturday and the national reaction...man, Matthew Golden may be starting to breakout.
Football fans adore fresh names and hate ‘old news’ players...those players in the league 3-4+ years. Rookie Derangement Syndrome has never had a cure since I coined the phrase a decade ago.
-- This is probably the end of the Bears playoff run, however.
Losing T.J. Edwards and Ozzy Trapilo are monumental hits. The Bears will get Philly or the Rams next...minus two key players like Edwards and Trapilo...it matters...but could be offset by injuries to their opponents during the practice week or in-game.
-- The FFM Betting Discord will be open all Sunday for hangouts for those interested. It was a fun Saturday chat. Sunday we got a tripleheader. I’m sure I’ll need a nap in there at some point.
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 36 WRs (22 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Josh Downs, Christian Watson, Rashee Rice, Michael Pittman, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Parker Washington, Stefon Diggs, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams, Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Jack Bech, Mack Hollins, Kyle Williams, Quentin Johnston, Ryan Flournoy, Keenan Allen, Jalen Nailor, Kayshon Boutte, Malik Washington, Jayden Reed, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
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1/10 SAT
(7:29amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Playoffs start today.
Game Reports...post as they are completed/submitted.
FFM News items (got a juicy note today to post later, private for subscribers)
Anything else that pops up, and any new betting items I might see.
== HEALTH UPDATE/Cancer Fight ==
I had my monthly blood work check (January 2026), and here are the highlights of the results:
-- My PSA was 18, then 21 in June-July, which is how this all got started. Anything over 3–5 is a major warning sign (and in my case, it was a very accurate warning).
(NOV.) After 3+ weeks on the first hormone therapy, my PSA went down to 3, which was way ahead of schedule. A great sign.
(DEC.) After 3+ weeks on a second hormone therapy, added to the first, my PSA dove down to 0.17... making me ready/eligible to undergo radiation in 2026.
(JAN.) I just got back my test results, and the PSA is now down to 0.11... the cancer continues to be destroyed down to its very last thread.
The lower the PSA score going into radiation, the easier it is on the doctors and robots doing the radiation. It requires "less blast," which means a lower chance of any bad side effects (short or long-term) from the radiation.
My last two PSA scores being 0.17 and 0.11 in short order apparently puts me in the top 1% of outcomes; the reports call my results the "gold standard" outcome. That is a true blessing.
Next up:
- 1/14/26: Internal mapping in Jacksonville for radiation pre-prep.
- 1/26/26 (Tentative): The scheduled start of my 8-week radiation program. This should be made official at the 1/14 appointment.
-- Other notes from the blood work...
Kidney and liver tests are all good. These are "big watch" items on these therapies, and my scores are great every time, which is a relief. It allows me to keep taking these treatments without interruption.
All 20+ items they tested were in the proper ranges—all "green" labels on the charts—EXCEPT one. "Elevated Monocytes" were high, marked with a red warning (just over the upper normal limit). Monocytes are the "cleanup crew" of our immune system. After something like a cold or flu has been defeated (like the one I had 2+ weeks ago), the monocytes go around and clear out the dead cells from the inflammatory response.
So, my body is likely still fighting off that sickness from a few weeks ago, which explains why I have been feeling so "sick" the past two weeks. Since that cold/flu, I have felt a constant "sea sickness"—nauseous, foggy-headed, tired, dizzy, and having hot flashes. These are the side effects of the hormone therapies they warned me about, which I hadn't really experienced until now. It seems they all arrived at once while my body tries to clear out the previous sickness.
It’s a real internal battle, but I should get past it in another week or two... just in time for the radiation sessions.
Thank you everybody for your prayers on all this. Being in the "top 1% of the class" for response to therapy means we have the cancer near death in very short order. Maybe that is luck, or maybe it’s the community of prayers from literally around the globe pushing me to these levels! Thank you so much for that. Please keep the prayers coming—I’d love to be over this constant "sea sickness" ASAP!
-- HEADLINE: Buccaneers fired OC Josh Grizzard.
I don’t understand the Bucs at all. They’ve been on a heater with finding great O-Cs, which I assume is on the GM Jason Licht, because there is -0.0% chance it is because of Todd Bowles.
If you remember back a year ago, Liam Coen verbally agreed to a to big deal to return to Tampa around this time last year...but then Jacksonville swooped in with a major offer, and Coen reneged on TB and now he’s a COY top candidate and #3 seed in the AFC playoffs.
It may be that the Bucs were late in the cycle last year, after getting burned by the Coen decision, and they just ‘liked’ this offensive assistant (Josh Grizzard) well enough to promote him in a pinch...to try to keep some continuity.
That was how Grizzard entered the picture...a hurried hire.
It seems crazy to fire Grizzard after one rushed year...a season in which Baker Mayfield played hurt for half the season and Bucky Irving missed about half the season and Tristan Wirfs missed several games. Maybe Grizzard is terrible...I don’t know...didn’t get any inside info yet. But I wasn’t impressed with Grizzard’s first press conference and his various Q&As with the media that I saw, but that’s a difficult thing to judge on the fly.
It almost feels like he is a fall guy for things out of his control.
My tin foil hat theory = Jason Licht has been great (or lucky) at hiring O-Cs lately, until Grizzard...but Licht has been great hiring O-Cs off other teams. Grizzard was homegrown/the ‘already there’ option. Maybe Licht wants to go back ‘fishing’ where he caught the greatest fish (hire a young guy from the outside)...think about it -- Dave Canales and Liam Coen are miracle workers (so far) as head coaches...and Tampa Bay/Licht hired them both away from teams to be his O-C at one time in recent years.
And Licht needs to pull another miracle O-C hire to potentially/eventually replace Bowles...and apparently Grizzard wasn’t ‘it’. So, he’s going out fishing for a REALLY big fish...another Canales and Coen, but this time he ain’t letting them off the hook. He’s gonna keep them and dump Bowles overboard...if he catches another great O-C fish.
My theory.
-- HEADLINE: Buccaneers CB coach Kevin Ross has also been let go, and S coach Nick Rapone, 69, is retiring. Offensive consultant Tom Moore retired as well. The Buccaneers released two staffers on the offensive side of the ball, OC Josh Grizzard and QB coach Thad Lewis, plus ST coordinator Thomas McGaughey.
The Bucs have flushed almost their entire staff, or they ‘retired’. Todd Bowles and a few loyal, long-time assistants remain.
Nothing feels ‘right’ or ‘good’ about this situation for 2026. Bowles doesn’t have a ‘tree’ to tap. Seeing who and how they replace all these guys is a major story for how to project TB things for 2026. Tampa is either panicked or about to cut out all the dead weight and restock with a fresh-thinking new arsenal…or they fill it with old rejects just dumped by other teams that Bowles knows from 20 years ago.
I’ll be tracking it and reporting back.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- Jaguars OL Cole Van Lanen (knee) is questionable to play in the Wild Card Round against the Bills.
This is a huge thing for the JAX game and predicting/projecting it. He is very questionable. He has been Left Tackle lately.
-- Chargers OT Jamaree Salyer (hamstring) is not on Los Angeles’ final Wild Card injury report.
This is a huge hope/help for LAC...he’s been the only decent Left Tackle fill-in since Joe Alt went out, but then Salyer went down. This could change the projection/hope for LAC.
-- This will blow your mind for a second...
https://x.com/nflonbread/status/2009411315702313075?s=43
-- I came across a bunch of Mike McDaniel tweets that were delicious...
The change over the years coaching does to a man: https://x.com/nflmemes/status/2009302243183305043?s=43
Some of you will get this in an instant and it will ‘crush’...sorry, if you don’t get this: https://x.com/nflmemes/status/2009382227944067478?s=43
McDaniel has career options: https://x.com/polymarketblitz/status/2009310709192990761?s=43
*Language and Blood Alert (the joke explained)*: https://youtu.be/Ig-EmuD9Q3Y?si=dNfF-jAD6OOOVFwI
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 35 WRs (21 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Rashee Rice, Davante Adams, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Christian Watson, Parker Washington, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Jakobi Meyers, Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Jack Bech, Quentin Johnston, Ryan Flournoy, Keenan Allen, Jalen Nailor, Malik Washington, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Jayden Reed, Marvin Harrison, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
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1/9 FRI
(7:06amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
AFC Playoff Projections Report
Playoff ATS picks report.
Game Reports that we have.
FFM News briefs throughout the day.
Wild Card Week player projections update planned approx. 8-11pm.
Anything else that pops up, and any new betting I might see.
== NEWS & NOTES ==
-- HEADLINE: Dolphins fired head coach Mike McDaniel.
This makes sense.
McDaniel is not a bad football coach/person, per se...but he is a bad operations manager/leader of a group of football playing men. It doesn’t mean he’s a bad guy or dumb, just he’s just not cut out to be a great head coach/CEO of a franchise. Most people on the planet are not right for it...most head coaches currently employed aren’t cut out to be great head coaches. Personally, I think I would be a great GM if they let me ‘cook’...but I think I would be an awful head coach if they really let me. It takes a special breed.
So, what’s gonna happen to McDaniel from here?
I assume he goes to the 49ers to be a special assistant to ultimately become the SF O-C/Assistant HC in a few years. If he resigns himself to being a happy assistant for life from here...then he’s going to go do that with the person he is most loyal to times 100 = Kyle Shanahan.
There’s a chance McDaniel gets paid a lot of money to go be an O-C for Washington/GM Adam Peters (from the SF tree)...if he wants to be a highly paid O-C and then (likely) the next Washington head coach in waiting. But there is a lot of turmoil in Washington all of a sudden.
What is Miami gonna do for a head coach?
The prevailing wisdom, and it fits -- they are likely to enter the John Harbaugh sweepstakes hard...looking for an ‘adult’ to be the head coach...some Michigan connection between the owner and the Harbaugh’s (one I don’t really understand in this instance). Harbaugh is gonna get a lot of money to take either the Miami or NYG job (or other, if he wants CLE or TEN or ARI, etc.).
My opinion: Some team is gonna make a monumental mistake buying Harbaugh as time is passing him by and that he doesn’t need another job/run as a head coach to prove anything in his career...but he is a white-hot candidate and is going to cash in big on a desperate, reaching NFL owner. And then once in place, Harbaugh will kick it into a lower gear and put more of the work on his assistants, of which he has an awful track record hiring in Baltimore the past decade...and this whole thing slowly descends into a giant disappointment.
If a slower pace, old school, weaker coaching staff gets foisted on the young, vibrant, promising Giants (for example) -- it will be a giant malpractice. They don’t need an experienced but behind the curve in the modern era head coach (like Pete Carroll, most recently)...the Giants need a young assistant that can run with and focus up the young guys. In this era, you want Liam Coen not Todd Bowles. You want Kellen Moore not Mike McCarthy. John Harbaugh is gonna be a well-meaning mistake, especially for the Giants roster...but it looks like Miami is gonna try to go there to do a rebuild. It won’t be terrible, probably...you’re just not ‘going anywhere’ with Harbaugh in the new era.
-- So, Andrew DFS is telling me that the contract restructure of Kirk Cousins makes it a set up to cut him before March 13th, before a big contract trigger goes into effect.
I thought they were positioning to look at re-doing a deal to keep Cousins as their QB because they have no idea when Michael Penix will be back, or what it is like for someone who has had three ACL surgeries in their football life.
Here was my earlier opinion (already wrote out my thoughts a day ago) on ATL/Cousins...an opinion that I now don’t believe, but here it was (followed by my new opinion)...
I think having Kirk Cousins in place would be attractive to all the Cousins worshipping head coach candidates out there...primarily like Kevin Stefanski. Stefanski would step into a loaded roster with a veteran QB he is familiar with on his roster, while they wait to see about Penix down the road...or they just draft a young, day 2-3 QB to develop behind Cousins...and to develop/have as an insurance chip while Penix is rehabbing.
Stefanski as head coach of the Falcons would likely press for a trade for his other ‘love child’ Dillon Gabriel, which the Browns would likely oblige. Stefanski could have Cousins in place, who he has worked with back in Minnesota...and then have a verbal commitment from ATL to try to acquire Gabriel...a left-handed backup while left-handed Penix rehabs his way back, if he can. This is not an interesting set up to me, as a fake head coach candidate, but it would absolutely delight Stefanski.
The ball, in all this, will be in Cousins’ court. He may agree to a new-structure deal to stay...but I’m sure he is waiting to see who the new coach might be. The next Falcons head coach may be driven more by Kirk Cousins, in cahoots with Matt Ryan, than made by a dynamic owner or GM (they don’t have one, currently) decision. And all roads may lead to Kevin Stefanski being the piece that the old school QBs (Cousins and Ryan) like that fixes all the issues floating out there (ACL QB, open HC job, Cousins contract issues).
If they let Cousins walk/plan to kick him out...then they’d have a ready-to-win team today with no QB...and they aren’t likely to draft a top QB to lead a ready-to-win team (if there are any top QBs in this draft). So, how would that attract an experienced coach (like Stefanski) to choose to take over this ready-to-win team? If they keep Cousins...all things may be fixed/loose ends tied up.
*That’s what I USED TO think/theorize (above).*
But then I saw this Q&A with owner Arthur Blank...
(here’s the three key quotes from this Q&A with the press and Blank, but a full report is linked below)
1) “I do think Michael is our franchise quarterback,” Blank said. “The injury he sustained was on his other knee. The surgeon felt 1000% secure in the medical procedure that he went through, and they felt his knee would be better than before.”
2) “We look forward to having Michael back,” Blank continued. “He’s had a good surgery. I spoke with the medical staff. It seems to have gone well. Kirk, we’ll see what happens moving forward.”
3) “It's hard to win in the NFL without a franchise quarterback,” Blank said, before later adding, “[Penix] is back in Atlanta, and he’s committed mentally, physically, and he feels good. So, yes. I would certainly say [Penix is the franchise quarterback].”
https://x.com/RiseUpReader/status/2009308231571591300
OK, well...good-bye Kirk Cousins. Good luck with your future as a backup with the 49ers to finish your career or you retire.
Hello/welcome back, franchise QB Michael Penix.
What head coach candidate would like to take over this 1st-place roster, except we don’t have a QB for Week 1, potentially...or a QB for the future, really...and you can’t draft a threat to the owner’s vested interest Penix...maybe you can sign Joe Flacco as insurance, but don’t even think when Penix returns that you’re sticking with the veteran? OK, who wants this job?
You either overpay/outspend everyone to force Stefanski or Harbaugh here, or you wait on one of the fresh top assistants to come free after their playoffs? I think Blank blew this prior regime up to bring in an entirely fresh, new era group. He passed on Belichick last year. He drop kicked Raheem out. I think Blank is either a visionary/searching for the future...or just can never be satisfied. We’re about to see. Hiring Matt Ryan as a President...not very visionary…but it may be window dressing to placate the fans.
-- How about this coaching rumor/scenario...
https://x.com/sammonsonnfl/status/2008674600595714334?s=43
-- My current head coach predictions (subject to daily change):
*in the order of the most desired jobs, according to me.
NYG = A young assistant from the playoff teams. Klint Kubiak is the prize...and KK might see this as the best offense to inherit as well. I think this is Kubiak’s best odds landing spot.
ATL = Kevin Stefanski still, but I’m not confident at all in the guess.
LV = Brian Flores or Declan Doyle
MIA = John Harbaugh
BAL = One of the assistants coaching in the playoffs...they are starting from scratch. And I think they will also trade Lamar as part of the rebuild. They may make a big push for Klint Kubiak. They may go for Grant Udinski if they miss on Kubiak.
TEN = Matt Nagy
ARI = An offensive assistant coach from a playoff team. Maybe/they hope Declan Doyle if he doesn’t wind up in LV or Grant Udinski (JAX O-C). But none of these young guys probably wants to go to the division with McVay and Shanahan, since most of them are tied to them. But enough money could change that...
So, it may be Arizona has to settle for someone after all the dust settles because the top guys don’t want this option...and then the Cardinals are forced to pick among the rubble/the unpicked.
CLE = A young, assistant head coach who goes for the money versus looking for a great franchise to work for. It will be a while until they can start looking for them, they need the playoffs to start kicking out teams to be able to really talk with the ‘hot’ assistants. No young HC prospect with any self-respect would go here. It will be a really young coach no one else is tapping, and the young guy jumps at the money knowing it’s ‘money now’ and thinking they can get another shot later at real head coaching job after the Browns gig fails. Also, if Matt Nagy doesn’t get TEN...he could have/get CLE.
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 34 WRs (20 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
Puka Nacua, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Rashee Rice, Davante Adams, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Christian Watson, Parker Washington, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Jakobi Meyers, Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Jack Bech, Quentin Johnston, Ryan Flournoy, Keenan Allen, Malik Washington, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Jayden Reed, Marvin Harrison, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
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1/8 THU
(5:58amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
NFC Playoff Predictions (will post this morningET). AFC tomorrow.
Game Reports today...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.
Wild Card Week projections update between 6-9pmET
FFM News & Notes during the day as I get them.
Anything else that pops up, and any early betting I might see.
== News & Notes ==
-- Wow...this could be the story of the week/offseason (as the NFL tries to bury it?)...
https://x.com/living_energy/status/2008604095188529215?s=43
-- Here we go again with Rashee...
https://x.com/nfl_dovkleiman/status/2009031809133416733?s=43
-- HEADLINE: John Harbaugh fired by the Baltimore Ravens.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports the Ravens are looking for a head coach to “invigorate” QB Lamar Jackson.
A mild shocker...but I get it.
A lot of media critique on this is ‘oh my, the Ravens are usually so stable and judicious’ and ‘How could they do this to their long-time successful head coach?’. I think it’s the Ravens patience and prowess and vision that led them here -- I think they made the smart move.
It was time.
The current Ravens could only go so far with John Harbaugh...and they did. The past was great, and Harbaugh deserves a round of applause and a gold watch...but I think the Ravens owner saw what I am seeing -- the era of the Harbaugh-type coaches is coming to an end. Best to rip the band-Aid off now. When you don’t see the current coach as ‘your future’, then make the change. It’s not like these coaches are getting fired and hitting the streets with no way to feed their families. The Ravens made an executive decision...for their future, and they want to get to that new future ASAP.
All the new teams that chase Harbaugh to be their coach are chasing a ‘resume’ from the past...these teams don’t ‘get’ the future. It’s the same mindset as to the Patriots hanging on to Bill Belichick too long...once the Pats made their change, there were some teams interviewing him for their openings. Desperate teams with just-fired head coaches -- some of them, the poorly run ones...they want to get in on ‘the past’ hoping it is the future. The past is the past, and Belichick has become a joke. There’s no guarantee a fresh, baby-faced assistant will work either...but the retreads are not the future. It’s not easy to tear down the old and rebuild a Dynasty team or an NFL franchise.
Harbaugh is a good soldier...a good employee...a decorated coach. He will be in demand from the teams who think ‘they are close’. Of all the retreads just fired, Harbaugh has the best resume. The NFL is changing so fast...it includes changes in the way coaches act, and their mindset with the players, and the connections they have for building a staff. Harbaugh is a thing of the past. He will have a staff that is from ‘the past’. Him and his staff will probably be ‘OK’ at managing a team...but they aren’t gonna be Avant Garde trailblazers or big, sustained ‘winners’. Just ask yourself...in all Harbaugh’s successful years -- where is his ‘tree’? Where are all the great Harbaugh hires? There are none. Some of Harbaugh’s semi-successful coaches just up and left and quietly went to other teams without fanfare...Harbaugh’s assistants didn’t get poached the past 5+ years. Sean McVay loses his entire staff about every 1-2 years...and he replaces them all, and 1-2 years later they all start getting hired away. Harbaugh has none of that...and that’s a symptom of the Harbaugh problem.
Teams that are stuck in the past, run by GMs/Presidents stuck in the past...Harbaugh will be a crowning jewel hire. The team that hires Harbaugh -- the GM will get a huge pat on the back from the media and fans...and it will also be the GM signing his death warrant (for employment) in the near future...and the temporary, continued death warrant of their franchise.
Harbaugh won’t be a disaster, he’ll just not be great...and his new team will move sideways or down over time...maybe he has a blip season early on with the fresh change if the roster is right. Eventually, probably quicker-than-not, Harbaugh’s new gig will end poorly, sadly.
Harbaugh is the safe hire for relic owners and under-pressure GMs. So NYG, ARI and TEN are likely the leaders in the clubhouse. He won’t go to LV, because Tom Brady hates him...and Brady just got burned by his same type of hire with Pete Carroll...a ‘years to late’ hire.
Credit to Baltimore for stepping up and making a change more proactive than sitting back and watching the slow slide to irrelevance keep taking place.
-- Speaking of the Raiders disaster...
https://www.raidersbeat.com/report-describes-nepotism-in-raiders-building/
Tom Brady had to allow this to happen...he OK’d Pete Carroll. Brady is not getting the criticism he should for all this mess in Las Vegas.
I wish I could get Ben Johnson to tell me what he saw to run away from going to the Raiders last offseason.
Old school NFL head coaches, recently fired after being in an organization a long time...they then con their way back into the game to get one more fat paycheck. In their next organization, they’re gonna not work as hard as they used to (they already worked hard and made a career and got fired in the end...they will not let that happen again, they will not sell their soul and work 20 hours a day this time) and they’re also gonna use the new gig to hire their family and friends...like what Pete Carroll just did. The Belichick’s and Carroll’s and so many others do the same thing. Mike McCarthy will, and so on. I would not hire these types of out-of-date, relics of the past era head coaches and let them just peacefully graze off my land. As a GM or Owner, if I had a head coach who hired one of their kids to do anything, I would fire them for it.
-- HEADLINE: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports the Lions “have started off their OC search” with Commanders quarterbacks coach David Blough.
This makes a ton of sense. Blough knows the system from being a QB under Ben Johnson in Detroit for a couple of years. Campbell respects him. Campbell can control him. Campbell can demand he try to duplicate the Ben Johnson offensive outputs/style. The only thing is, maybe Ben Johnson wants him to replace some of his lost staff...we’ll see.
-- Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said he will remain the team’s head coach for 2026.
More of the same coming from Tampa. TB made the opposite decision of what Baltimore just did. Tampa is going as far as their O-Line and Baker takes them. The rest of the time/things Bowles can just blow his whistle and call for calisthenics and conduct boring, uninspired press conferences or whatever.
When Tampa Bay let Dave Canales and Liam Coen go away and retained Bowles instead...they cost their franchise the next decade of success potentially. What a shame. If Tampa did 1-2 years ago, what the Ravens are doing now...the Bucs would be in a way better future.
-- Here are some very interesting Ryan Fitzpatrick (and hidden Maxx Crosby) takes on the Brian Flores problem...
These ex-Defensive Coordinators are not the way NFL teams should go for a head coach, but Tom Brady has no idea what he is doing...he doesn’t have the contacts built nor the time to dedicate to building a pipeline of great young coaches.
What will be most important to Brady now is (my guess) -- loyalty. He got burned by Ben Johnson and then by Pete Carroll. Safest thing to do when your whole life is not ‘this’ (manically working in NFL organizational management) and you have no real coaching ‘contacts’ and ‘prospects’ built up you’ve been eyeing for years -- you then tend to go to your past and hire something familiar that you think you can control.
I’ll be highly impressed if Brady doesn’t hire an ex-Patriot guy and rather plucks/takes a chance on a young up-and-coming coaching prospect...then maybe Brady has a future in this NFL management game (or he’s just wildly throwing darts). But if he goes in with Brian Flores, the Raiders fans should absolutely revolt...revolt on Brady, and on Mark Davis for letting this ruse continue.
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 34 WRs (19 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
Puka Nacua, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Rashee Rice, Davante Adams, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Christian Watson, Parker Washington, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Jakobi Meyers, Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Jack Bech, Quentin Johnston, Ryan Flournoy, Keenan Allen, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Jayden Reed, Marvin Harrison, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
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1/7 WED
(4:54pmET)
-- A quick notice because I forgot to note it the last two mornings...
I am working on an NFC and AFC playoff preview/predictions report for those interested for your FF Playoff things, or betting, or whatever.
I think I will publish the NFC one Thursday (since I almost have it done, and it's pretty lengthy).
I will write the AFC one tomorrow, and publish it on Friday.
-- Also, while I got you...
For those into such things...please consider throwing me a quick prayer if you would. I am being hit by all the side effects of these hormone therapies for like the last two weeks...and it is not good/fun.
I went through the first two months of therapies with very little side effects...so much so, I was kinda jokingly-bragging to myself/wife/kids about how great everything battling cancer has been going so far. My cancer scores are way down, the therapies are kicking cancer-butt, my side effects are minimal...having/fighting cancer is a breeze!
Well, I have been recently reminded that cancer is a bitch. I think I made it mad with some too soon TD celebration action.
Actually, it's not the cancer hitting me...it's the therapies fighting the cancer...which are basically 'chemo' in some senses in a pill form. The 1-2 punch of pills is really altering my body now. It's defeating the cancer, but it's starting to take on collateral damage to me in the war. I spend most of the day, the past 2 weeks, in a perpetual state of being 'sea sick'...if you think of what that means, even if you've felt it for just a moment, imagine it happening all day long...sometimes mild waters, sometimes the storm comes and tosses me to and fro. It's not been fun. I try to work in-between the waves and winds and storms. Sitting and focusing on work is a godsend, but I also get very tired from the constant state of sea sickness. I get 4-5am for no reason...back to sleep around 7-9am...back to sleep again between 1-3pm...and the sleep just hits. I'll feel OK, then I'll get 'that feeling' and I have to go lay down and I collapse asleep fully clothed (which I hate that feeling of fully clothed sleep, but I cant even muster the energy to get out of them...I just curl up and am gone.
This is 'normal' reactions to taking these therapies, not unexpected or something wrong with me...and apparently/supposedly my body is now trying to adjust to it's new reality and it will 'right the ship' within a few weeks. Until that time, or to speed up getting to 'normal', the power of your prayers is welcomed to help get me there ASAP...as it has helped so much with so many little and big miracles along the way so far.
-----------------
(5:59amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Game Reports...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.
Wild Card Week projections update 6-8pmET approx.
Streaming news items throughout the day, more afternoon-night for me this day.
Any new betting action.
== NEW & NOTES ==
-- Open head coaching jobs (so far) and my early feel/rank for how coveted they are by candidates:
ATL
NYG (Dart is a big draw over ‘rookie’ QB in places like LV or ARI)
TEN
BAL
LV
ARI
CLE
It’s hard to say which direction these teams are going because only ‘definitely available’ candidates are ‘available’ to talk to at the moment. All the hot young assistants (HYA) are all preparing for the playoffs.
With each playoff win an HYA gets more momentum/desire...but are also further out of reach to even be talked to. With a playoff loss, HYA’s lose some momentum but are then available to talk to. It’s a weird system. This week...the ‘cold old fired’ Head Coaches (COFHC) are all the rage because they are ‘available’. Now is the time to talk to Stefanski, Daboll, Nagy, et. al. Next week you can talk to some HYA’s.
So, most of these jobs won’t even be close to being filled until two more weeks of teams losing in the playoffs and thus their candidates being more available. So, get ready for a week of more Stefanski, Flores, McCarthy rumor mill talk.
-- One of the HYA’s (but for Off. Coordinator jobs) is Chicago Bears QB Coach, former Ohio State QB, former NFL journeyman QB JT Barrett. Detroit among others may be coming after him to raid Ben Johnson’s staff.
-- HEADLINE: Cowboys fired defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus.
One of the top defensive coordinators of the last decade is getting blamed for a mess of a secondary he inherited...messy with injuries and drama, mostly injuries. Potentially a big mistake by Dallas...or Eberflus is just kinda done with the NFL and needs a break and Jerry Jones saw it and dumped him. Not sure which.
-- HEADLINE: NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports the Commanders and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury mutually parted ways.
I thought this was coming. Washington ‘clean sweep’d’ their whole staff essentially yesterday. They needed to, but they also have a Dan Quinn problem in all of this...but they are sticking with Quinn, who now has to rebuild a whole new staff...and Quinn is not in the McVay-Shanahan-O’Connell-Ben Johnson world, so he’s likely to acquire all retreads to help save his job in 2026. If the Washington GM is in charge of the assistant hirings, then we’ll see some ex-49ers/Shanahan tree people come here...maybe someone who can take over if Quinn needs to go next season.
At the top of their wish list: hire Mike McDaniel as O-C, if he came available. But a fired McDaniel is likely going back with Kyle Shanahan in some capacity (special assistant) until the O-C job opens again.
-- HEADLINE: ESPN’s Field Yates reports the Falcons and QB Kirk Cousins agreed to a “modified” final two years of Cousins’ contract.
Well, this probably lets us know Michael Penix’s health status is in jeopardy to start Week 1 of 2026...from the rehab perspective...and maybe Penix’s status ‘in general’ is in question with Raheem gone...all that leading to ATL needing a QB in the meantime.
The Falcons see themselves ‘on the verge’, so they won’t reach for a rookie QB solution...they will settle for Cousins until they see what’s up with Penix -- is my opinion.
Some people theorize that this contract change makes Cousins more attractive to trade. Who is trading for Cousins as a starter? Nobody. Cousins’ best situation is in the Falcons situation...with now a Falcons ‘President’ (Matt Ryan) who understands/bonds with older QBs and has no idea or background on how to scout or deal with rookie QBs. The Falcons are gonna be going for experienced players to try and win the NFC South in 2026. They think they are already the favorite.
An experienced head coach is coming here, not an ‘HYA’. Matt Ryan is gonna work with experienced people he can bond with fast -- Stefanski, McCarthy, etc. Had Washington fired Dan Quinn, this Falcons job search might already be over.
-- Two key, massive injury situations that change the game for a couple playoff teams...
1) Eagles RT Lane Johnson (foot) is expected to practice Wednesday.
If Lane Johnson gets back practicing in full by game time, then the Eagles might be the favorite to come out of the NFC.
2) Bears designated CB Kyler Gordon (hamstring) to return from injured reserve.
Gordon has played just three games this year, Weeks 6 and 7, as well as Week 13, while struggling through a long-term injury. If healthy, he’d be a huge addition. The key words there are “if healthy.” The Bears also opened OT Braxton Jones’ 21-day window.
The Bears may getting some extra/needed help for the playoffs. Getting a healthy Gordon back would be massive for their erratic defense.
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 32 WRs (18 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Rashee Rice, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Christian Watson, Parker Washington, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Jakobi Meyers, Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Jack Bech, Quentin Johnston, Ryan Flournoy, Keenan Allen, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Jayden Reed, Marvin Harrison, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
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1/6 TUE
(5:09amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Game Reports today...as many as we can get out.
News & Notes throughout the day.
Wild Card Round Player Projections
== NEWS & NOTES ==
-- For what it is worth, it looks like my first full scouting report is going to be on Notre Dame RB Jeremiah Love. He seems to be the clear, predominant top-rated RB and pacing to be the top player for Dynasty Rookie Drafts.
I’ll be starting that study this week to publish the report next week. Next up, after Love, to study this week, will be one of the top WRs...not sure which one first.
I won’t start the Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore studies until their seasons are over.
-- HEADLINE: The Raiders fired coach Pete Carroll.
Well, we all knew this was coming.
To me, this is on Tom Brady and his part-time management of the Raiders. I don’t feel like he is getting the proper blame for all this.
A quick recap of Brady’s 2025...
He picked his buddy as GM, which is fine, and I’m sure all moves get checked with Brady ahead of time.
Brady tried everything to put the ‘schmooze’ on courting Ben Johnson to Vegas, as he should...but he obviously didn’t do a good enough job to seal the deal and Johnson wasn’t impressed enough with the Vegas situation to not take a phone call from Chicago and then immediately take their deal, not giving LV/Tom a chance to even counter/beat the offer. Ben Johnson is smart...he may have seen the Raiders’ management structure and said, ‘no, thanks’.
I don’t know that Tom Brady is used to being told ‘no, thanks’. The Raiders then spiraled and panicked into Pete Carroll, and I don’t believe for a second that Brady didn’t give a thumbs up on the subsequent Geno deal. You think Chip Kelly was hired and paid a bunch without Brady’s blessing? Brady has his finger in everything...and his fingerprints are on pure disaster decisions in 2025.
If there was an award for WORST executive of the year, Tom Brady should be up for that with his 2025 resume. Thankfully, for Brady, Aaron Glenn exists...so it would be a coin flip for that fictitious award. And Tom Brady is football royalty, so you ain’t criticizing him.
BUT that’s the problem -- Brady has his fingers in everything, and not his whole body and soul. He’s doing broadcasting...he’s doing commercials...he’s got multiple businesses...and he’s running the Raiders as a part-time hobby with his GM-buddy under the nose of one of the dumbest owners in the league. Brady is playing everyone for a fool...he’s like the mob, he’s getting ‘a taste’ from all angles. And I don’t blame him. He’s having fun and getting paid...we’d all do the same if we could? But if you think Tom Brady has some magic potion to NOW fix the Raiders, among his part-time gigs...you're conning yourself with ‘hopeium’.
Elon Musk gets crucified for being spread too thin among his businesses and politics, and rightfully so if you’re a Tesla shareholder. But Tom Brady is spread all around different ventures and hobbies and jet-setting and still trying to run the Raiders without a lick of experience doing so -- and no one cares. Miami turning to Troy Aikman...Atlanta turning to Matt Ryan...desperate acts of similar ‘hopeium’. Being a long-time loyal employee does not mean you know how to build and run an organization.
-- HEADLINE: The Cardinals fired Jonathan Gannon.
This was long overdue. One of the absolute weirdest non-leaders of men there was in the NFL. He’ll never be a head coach again. He will be a D-C for some team. Not a top choice D-C, but a mid-range ‘settling’ hire by an old school coach who has no fresh connections in the league...so he’ll be Mike McCarthy’s or Kevin Stefanski’s D-C, something like that.
-- HEADLINE: The Browns fired coach Kevin Stefanski. GM Andrew Berry will remain in place and lead the search for a new head coach, according to a statement from Browns owners Dee and Jimmy Haslam.
So, Stefanski is out...but the long-time GM Andrew Berry still remains? So ‘Cleveland’.
Stefanski will be the gem hire for the teams that no fresh coaching prospect with a future would want to go to. So, Stefanski is gonna be very much on the Giants’ radar.
Atlanta doesn’t need to hire a retread, they are gonna be the top choice for any fresh coach like Klint Kubiak or Declan Doyle...but newly ‘in charge’ Matt Ryan will potentially block that and go for things of his era he is more comfortable with.
Arizona may strikeout on all its attempts to get a young/fresh name because none of them want to go complete with McVay-Shanahan on a regular basis...so, Stefanski is a possibility here.
Tennessee is gonna go for Matt Nagy or someone else from the Andy Reid tree, but Stefanski is a fail-safe potential there too.
The Raiders will not hire Stefanski...the Raiders will either compound Brady’s 2025 mistakes and hire an ex-Patriot to coach to be loyal to Brady, or Brady is going to get back at Ben Johnson by taking Declan Doyle away. Either way...Brady does not have his finger on the pulse of the league, potentially. He thinks he does, but he’s not in the grind, he isn’t grooming any coaches in his career...but McVay-Shanahan-O’Connell are, constantly losing coaches and then growing up ones right behind them that everyone will want a year from now...and so on, and so on...
Stefanski will get one of the 2026 job openings, for sure.
== Early 2026 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings ==
This is not MY rankings...it’s several sources dumped into Gemini and asking it to make a consensus top 12.
I was doing research to try and set a schedule/order for the first full scouting reports for me, so I am trying to do the ones of most interest to the audience right away.
I thought you’d have interest in seeing the early consensus (below), which will likely be my hit list/order of studies ahead.
|
Rank |
Player |
Pos |
School |
(Gemini) Scouting Note |
|
1.01 |
Jeremiyah Love |
RB |
Notre Dame |
The undisputed 1.01. Doak Walker winner; 1,600+ total yards in '25. Elite speed/size combo. |
|
1.02 |
Jordyn Tyson |
WR |
Arizona St |
The "cleanest" WR in the class. Elite route nuance and high-end YAC ability. |
|
1.03 |
Makai Lemon |
WR |
USC |
Massive late-2025 riser. Explosive athlete who has taken over as the primary weapon at USC. |
|
1.04 |
Carnell Tate |
WR |
Ohio State |
The next in the OSU lineage. Physical "X" receiver with great body control. |
|
1.05 |
Justice Haynes |
RB |
Georgia |
Dealing with a late-season injury but has the highest "pure" talent ceiling of the RBs. |
|
1.06 |
Denzel Boston |
WR |
Washington |
A 6'4" monster. Massive catch radius; projects as a high-volume red zone target. |
|
1.07 |
Fernando Mendoza |
QB |
Indiana |
The 2025 Heisman winner. In 1QB, he’s lower, but his "Burrow-esque" accuracy is undeniable. |
|
1.08 |
Jadarian Price |
RB |
Notre Dame |
The "lightning" to Love's "thunder." Higher YPC and homerun ability; elite metrics. |
|
1.09 |
Nicholas Singleton |
RB |
Penn State |
Returning for his senior year. 4.3 speed at 225 lbs; the best pure athlete in the class. |
|
1.10 |
Jonah Coleman |
RB |
Washington |
A stout 5'9", 225-lb "bowling ball" with surprisingly good hands (3-down potential). |
|
1.11 |
Kenyon Sadiq |
TE |
Oregon |
The 2026 "Unicorn." Moves like a WR at 245 lbs. High-end athletic tester. |
|
1.12 |
KC Concepcion |
WR |
NC State |
The "Percy Harvin" role. Shifty slot weapon who will be a PPR-scam monster. |
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 30 WRs (17 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Rashee Rice, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Christian Watson, Parker Washington, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Jakobi Meyers, Alec Pierce, Cedric Tillman, Courtland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr.
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Isaac TeSlaa, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Romeo Doubs, Khalil Shakir, Jalen Coker
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Jack Bech, Ryan Flournoy, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Jayden Reed, Marvin Harrison, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
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1/5 MON
(6:37amET)
-- Today's Agenda...
Game reports will post randomly all week as we complete them this week.
FFM news stream page will be active/happening nearly every day all this week, as we get news on situations...a lot of coach-firing about to happen.
Executive Summary Report planned to post after 5-8pmET, when completed.
== Coming Up on FFM... ==
1) Our focus starts to turn, to some degree, to the playoffs.
We will have Wild Card week projections out on Tuesday...and update them throughout the week.
We’ll also have playoff previews for FF and betting, etc., later in the week/before the games begin.
My top Wild Card bet posted last night, if interested...time is of the essence...I think the line might change by 1-2 points in the next 48 or so hours.
2) Scouting Season Begins...
Full scouting reports will debut sometime next week (week of 1/12). And full scouting reports, like normal, all offseason pre and post draft into the preseason.
We’ll be working on the Senior Bowl and East-West Shrine preview scouting all January and producing reports/early grades leading up to Senior Bowl and E-W week.
First report of the new scouting season? Not sure. Might be Jeremiah Love. Can’t do the Indy QB until his season is finished.
3) One of my main projects this next week or so, and I have to allow for coaching changes and O-C changes to get finalized as part of it too...is to construct the HOLY player list for Dynasty 2026.
The players we should look to build Dynasty teams on, early Best Ball drafts on, and construct our eventual redraft plans on.
More on the Dynasty HOLY reports when the time comes.
4) News & Notes
All month, every day, we’ll be reacting to all the football news, as usual. The coaching rumors/changes, the playoff stuff, the draft, etc. No days off in football coverage...
== News & Notes ==
-- HEADLINE = The Falcons have fired coach Raheem Morris and GM Terry Fontenot...
I did not project this change to happen. I thought/projected the potential to be less than 50% likely to happen a few days ago...but I thought it was possible. There may be a recent high number of coaches getting axe’d this week/offseason.
What may save some coaches from getting fired this next week or so is...so many firings and not enough attractive candidates to fill the spots. But offsetting that might be: people want change, and they want it NOW...and they don’t properly consider/don’t have any real solutions or game plan on replacement besides ‘hope’ (that the right candidate falls out of the sky and chooses them).
https://x.com/mysportsupdate/status/2007992681964921089?s=43
https://x.com/mysportsupdate/status/2007976952569974924?s=43
-- Panthers fans are celebrating their team...Lions fans are mocking and denigrating and lamenting their team.
https://x.com/underdog/status/2007976963944985040?s=43
https://x.com/panthos704/status/2007959775561257004?s=43
-- Final Standings...
https://x.com/stuckey2/status/2007989398496055635?s=43
-- The changing of the guard...
I went back and looked at the last 10 years of division winners in the NFL...to see how many of 8 division winners in a season were ‘new’/not winners the season prior.
I was interested in the info because we got a shocking amount of divisional winner change in the 8 divisions this season.
I thought it was like 2-3 average division champs changeover per year in the prior 10 years, but it’s a little more than that. Still, 2025 is the biggest outlier in the past decade (and likely longer/maybe ever in the modern era).
The history of ‘new’ division winners each season (didn’t win it the season prior):
2016 = 6
2017 = 5
2018 = 4
2019 = 3
2020 = 5
(an average of 4.6 division winner changes 6-10 years ago)
2021 = 4
2022 = 5
2023 = 4
2024 = 2
(an average of 3.8 division winner changes the past 4 years)
*4.2 division winner changes the 9 years
2025 = 7 new division winners on the season. Only Philly repeated.
The NFL is changing at warp speed. Most ‘historical data’ nuggets that people use for predictive models ahead -- it’s all useless, aged out, irrelevant.
-- New Hierarchy list for the next month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 30 WRs (16 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Rashee Rice, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Christian Watson, Parker Washington, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Jakobi Meyers, Alec Pierce, Cedric Tillman, Courtland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr.
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Isaac TeSlaa, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Romeo Doubs, Khalil Shakir, Jalen Coker
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Ryan Flournoy, Xavier Worthy, Jayden Reed, Marvin Harrison, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
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