Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
9/5 FRI
(11:28amET)
-- The Christian McCaffrey calf issue is not a ‘rest’ or a ‘basic precaution’ issue...it is more than that.
CMC felt something in his calf, came out of practice, and didn’t return. It’s being sold as extra precautionary...and it may very well be. But the tweak was real. All the same things the 49ers and CMC said last preseason about his injury, basically saying it was fine, are the same things being said here now.
It’s not a freak out moment...yet. It may not be ever this season, but this is escalating from ‘no big deal’ to speculation and worry.
FYI
---------------------
(7:26amET)
-- OK, we finally kicked off the season last night...a very late night. I got a good amount of time to spend with the game tape today and do the subsequent report...so, no need to rush the report. The game report will be out on Friday sometime...likely published in the afternoon/early evening ET at the latest, as a guess.
Let me tell you what the mainstream game report will be, I’ll save you some time today: Dallas hangs with Philly...and the Cowboys might have won, but they stupidly traded away Micah Parsons...so, they are doomed for the next decade of watching the Packers win the Super Bowl a minimum of 5 times the next 10 years.
Ahhh...the NFL is back...just the way we left it last season.
-- HEADLINE: Amari Cooper announced his retirement after 10 seasons in the NFL.
I thought this signing was ridiculous when it happened...and then Pete Carroll went on and on about how good Amari is and how he looks...and then he (apparently) was so bad he just retired. He was shot last year anyway. When the Bills traded for him and then didn’t use him last season...you knew it was over.
Dont’e Thornton SZN apparently in Las Vegas. Good luck with that.
I will say it again...I have absolutely NO IDEA what the Raiders are doing with their team/personnel decisions. What a terrible preseason.
-- HEADLINE: Christian McCaffrey (calf) was limited on Thursday.
This is probably just a ‘rest’ excuse/management of CMC. No cause for alarm yet.
-- HEADLINE: Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez (hamstring) did not practice on Thursday.
This is NOT GOOD for the Patriots DST for this week. Still...it’s facing the Raiders, so it might be FF-OK...but so much better for FF/NFL purposes if Gonzalez is there. I think Gonzo is 80% likely to be out for Week 1 at this stage.
-- HEADLINE: Cowboys RB Jaydon Blue was inactive for Week 1 against the Eagles.
That career is in a serious tailspin. I don’t think Blue will make it to the end of the season on the Cowboys roster at this point.
You could see it on the Week 3 preseason game tape...but the mainstream wasn’t looking, but apparently Dallas’s coaches were...and they’ve seen the problem all camp.
It makes me wonder if the Steelers will activate Kaleb Johnson for Week 1’s game or not.
-- This is a super-in-depth story on A.J. Brown that might change your perspective on him. A lengthy read to kill some time with on a Friday. You know A.J. Brown...the guy of one target on the MNF opener last night...the Eagles #1 WR...memba him?
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/46139248/aj-brown-nfl-philadelphia-eagles-post-super-bowl
-- Rookie Card Giveaway winners #1-2-3...your cards shipped Wednesday. Set to arrive Sept. 9th approx. but could come in a little quicker...it was sent out in a good sized/secured box with a lot of bubble wrap around the solo card. It should be safe in its travels.
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
9/4 THU
(8:06amET)
-- Week 1 projection update for today will happen around 7-715pmET, when inactives are announced.
For those on the Betting Discord club...the Thursday Night Football thread will be open for a running game chat for those watching live.
Sunday morning will be the Sit-Start pre-kick video stream from 10:30amET to Noon-ish. Then projections final updated at 12:30pmET approx.
-- KEEP YOUR FLEXIBLE...our weekly battle cry. For those who are new...
Check your starting lineups and make sure the player/s in your FLEX are playing in the latest games on the schedule to buy you the most time and flexibility to react if a freak injury hits last second to a player.
Your FF starting lineup is not some ceremonial thing where (example) Derrick Henry must be at RB because you drafted him 1st-round of redraft and he’s ‘King Henry’...blah-blah-blah. We are not trying to be sure to not offend these players. We’re not trying to impress our league mates with our lineup order...or more ‘impress ourselves’. That’s not how FF lineups work.
Henry plays Sunday Night this week...if that’s the latest game time of all your RBs, then Henry goes in the flex and the other two RBs go to the starting spot.
What if Henry gets covid Sunday afternoon...or a meteorite falls on his head walking to the stadium, etc.? If a crisis hits and he’s at your RB spot, then you can only replace him with an RB...and what if you have no RBs left who have yet to play? If Henry is in the FLEX and something weird happens last second, you have the option of replacing him with an RB-WR-TE you might have/have more options on. OR you have more options of cutting a sketchy player to pick up Justice Hill or Keaton Mitchell or Charlie Kolar or DeAndre Hopkins or Curtis Samuel or whatever. Point being...having the latest playing starter at FLEX gives you many more options in/if a crisis.
Ditto Justin Jefferson who plays on MNF. Put him as your Flex WR if he’s the latest playing game WR and you are currently going with a WR in your Flex.
Which means NO ONE from the Philly-Dallas game should be in your FLEX. Why lock out your FLEX to start the week with 15 more games/crisis’s or opportunities that might spring up Sunday/Monday?
If your FLEX is a WR right now, and you only have 1pmET and 4pmET playing WRs in the lineup...then a 4pm WR is in the FLEX. What if something weird happens at 3pmET to your FLEX WR? You want to be able to choose from as many options to replace as possible if that happens last second.
Got it?
So, I will always say KEEP YOUR FLEX FLEXIBLE throughout the game week...and this is why I say it.
-- Our Video Q&A from last night is on-demand to watch/listen to anytime. I started, as usual, going over my news & notes...so, not a lot of new developments since then.
My brief news items to start the show...
Stafford-Jackson back for LAR.
The Bills CB duo injury issue potential.
Josh Downs and Marvin Mims cleared/not on injury reports.
Darren Waller might be out for Week 1.
DeVon Achane is questionable, but likely to play...but not a 100% lock just yet.
And then we talked A LOT about Jaylen Warren, Calvin Ridley v. DEN D Week 1, starting or not starting Mims and Downs Week 1 in the Q&A part, plus a million other players/topics. 2+ hours of discussion.
-- HEADLINE: 49ers signed WR Jauan Jennings to a contract that will add $3 million in play-time incentives.
JJ gets a bump, but nothing like he was hoping. Now we revert back to -- on field, which side wins out? All the talk of how Jauan is the 49ers ‘#1’...or did the summer flip that to Ricky Pearsall...or are they just going to split each other into being two random WR2/3s?
I really do not have a great feel for this...I’m as confused/throwing darts at it as anyone. Jennings or Pearsall? I’ll take Kittle and CMC.
-- HEADLINE: Texans WR Christian Kirk (hamstring) did not participate in Wednesday’s practice.
It looks like Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, the rookies, might both start for Houston Week 1. ‘Good’ if you’re betting on the Rams. ‘Good’ if you own Nico. A ‘shock’ output, potentially, if you own Jaylin Noel...as a guy who might be the least covered but most likely to make a surprise big play or two.
-- Rookie Card Giveaway winners #1-2-3...your cards shipped yesterday. Set to arrive Sept. 9th approx. but could come in a little quicker...it was sent out in a good sized/secured box with a lot of bubble wrap around the solo card. It should be safe in its travels.
-- A nice laugh to start this day...
https://youtu.be/A-SuInTdWJI?si=5220VeKeCHr2lXqR
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
9/3 WED
(7:54amET)
-- A special Wednesday version of our Tuesday Night Video Q&A happens at 8:30pmET start and goes until we can’t go no mo.
Bring your sit-start, draft, and/or betting questions and comments. Should be a wild Wednesday night leading into the TNF kickoff to 2025.
-- Depth Chart notes of interest (and not touched on yesterday)...
*Quentin Johnston listed as a starter for LAC...Keenan, Tre Harris and KLS all as backups. LAC only listed two WRs due to also listing a FB starter. I imagine when they go three WR sets, Keenan would be a starter. I also cannot imagine it’s not gonna be McConkey-Keenan as the 1-2 in reality...it’s so odd how Harbaugh ties himself to QJ...it’s things like this that, potentially (if true) worries me about LAC winning the AFC West and wondering about the Najee/Hampton workload split when reality happens...not just talk. We’ll see Friday.
*Nick Chubb listed #1, Pierce #2...everything points to full steam ahead for Chubb as the heavy lead back here. My DET-HOU preseason Week 3 report, with a Pierce scouting/discussion of the backfield will be out today.
*Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby are listed as co-starters on Jacksonville’s unofficial depth chart for Week 1. This was what we saw in the preseason, and what I based the projections on...a split...a ‘hot hand’...and Bhayshul Tuten is in the distance as a #3. It’s Etienne/Bigsby split...and usually Bigsby shines when he gets the chance. JAX faces the terrible/dreadful Panthers run defense Week 1.
*Denver RB depth chart: Dobbins #1, RJH #2, Badie #3, Jaleel #4. A lot of rotating, but Dobbins getting the lead nod to start, which probably won’t last long due to his general ‘meh’. It will be ‘hot hand’ and ‘rotations’ there...and it doesn’t look great.
-- For the Thursday game, two big injury items to watch/that will change some FF player projections...
Dallas CB Trevon Diggs looks like he might be fully cleared to play (back-to-back full practices), and that’s a huge thing for the Dallas defense and for what A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith might be facing.
Philly OG Landon Dickerson is trending towards playing, which is big for more Philly frontline dominance in the run game over a struggling Dallas run defense. He practiced in full Tuesday, so he
-- Some quotes from an ESPN article about the whole Micah Parsons situation.
I am posting some interesting paragraphs from that lengthy article/report...
...And while Parsons' presence in the lineup was impossible to replicate -- by expected points added per play from 2021 through 2024, the Cowboys were the NFL's best defense with Parsons on the field and the league's worst by the same metric when he was not -- Dallas also believed there were times when his skills were counterproductive to the winning cause. Parsons ranked 68th among edge rushers in stop rate against the run and 81st in yards per run stop last season, according to the FTN Football Almanac.
..."For Jerry, it came back to we have got to be able to stop the run," the source close to Jones said. "Micah does not do that. In fact, because we couldn't stop the run, it made Micah less effective. Then they're going to run right at him, and that's not what he does. We could not take care of mission critical."
...Amid the pettiness and hurt feelings, Parsons continued to show up -- a source close to Parsons said Mulugheta doesn't see the value in players getting fined and advised him to be present -- albeit while citing back tightness as the reason he wasn't practicing. Parsons had an MRI on his back in late August that came back clean, according to Schottenheimer, and was cleared by Cowboys doctors to practice.
...He continued to participate in walk-throughs and meetings but also exhibited strange behavior including not wearing his practice jersey, or on another day wearing it around his neck, and coming to practice without shoes. Before the team's preseason finale against the Falcons, Parsons ate nachos as he walked to the locker room, and most memorably lay on a medical table during the game and appeared to close his eyes. The image went viral.
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
9/2 TUE
(9:35amET)
-- Couple of schedule notes...
1) NO Tuesday Night Video Q&A tonight. It’s bumped one day to take place Wednesday 9/3 at 8:30pmET.
2) For the Betting subscribers...’All Picks ATS’ will be out by Thursday am/before NoonET.
3) Rookie Card Giveaway winner #3 has claimed their prize -- the autograph special Davante Adams rookie.
----------------------------
(5:59amET)
-- NBC HEADLINE: Browns beat writer Mary Kay Cabot reports Quinshon Judkins could return to the team as early as this week.
I would guess Judkins signs Tuesday and is possibly worked into the rotation for Week 1, and is ‘the guy’ by Weeks 2-3-4...because that’s what the Browns do. As soon as Judkins signs, Jerome Ford’s value falls down the drain...and Sampson is a mystery (could be the Week 1 starter, could be lightly rotating).
BUT
Judkins could get a 1-2 game suspension out of the gates and give Ford/Sampson some value for a few weeks.
-- NBC HEADLINE: Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh said Najee Harris is cleared for contact and there’s a chance he plays in Week 1 against the Chiefs.
Wow. Najee played this brilliantly...missed all of camp, and back just in time for the regular season. This is a hit to Omarion Hampton’s Week 1 because none of us knows what LAC is going to do with this rotation. You don’t want to have your big rookie RB having legit (coaches respect Najee, and he is experienced) competition for touches out of the gates.
-- NBC HEADLINE: ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports it is still “uncertain” if Packers EDGE Micah Parsons will play in Week 1.
I’m guessing he will play, but he is not 100%. The Lions line went from +1.5 for the Lions to Detroit +2.5 at GB with the Parsons news. If Parsons gets fully cleared, that line may jump to +3.0 for a second because the world has gone mad/deranged for Parsons being a Packer.
-- NBC HEADLINE: Jauan Jennings was seen practicing on Monday.
It looks like the Jennings injury or hold out or whatever it was...is over. A hit to the Ricky Pearsall recent enthusiasm.
-- I bet on four guys to win the Heisman this preseason after doing our Devy series in the month of July. I did a spot check today after the first big week of CFB got underway...
Arch Manning had the best odds/was #1 when I bet it...he was my insurance bet...and obviously that money is going down the tubes.
The next three were a big odds basket bet, needing one to hit one of them to cover all the Heisman investments:
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina QB...he had an OK enough first game. He’s still in the hunt just fine at this point. He’s now the #2 odds to win the award...his odds cut in half. Good ticket I have here.
Dylan Raiola, Nebraska QB was the longest odds shot...and he didn’t tank his hopes, but I needed him to splash and get attention...he did not. This one is stuck in neutral needing a jolt.
My favorite bet, the one I thought had the best chance to long-shot hit, Oklahoma QB John Mateer...and now we’re talking! 393 yards passing and 3 TDs + a rushing TD in his OU debut (transfer). His odds have gone +2900 to +1600...#7 favorite overall now, tied with Arch.
-- Winner #3 of the Rookie Card Drawing was emailed last night (a current Betting subscriber).
Next up is #4...which the pool we’re selecting from for Giveaway #4 (of 5): We will draw a random name from anyone who has tried out our new Chalk Talk Database offering by the opening kick of the season (Week 1 TNF) -- we will randomly draw one name from the subscriber group there and contact them THU night.
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
9/1 MON (Happy Labor Day)
(8:14amET)
Couple housecleaning/prep for Week 1 items to start the notes today...
-- Today, the Dynasty rankings are planned to be updated...probably for the final time this year/season. We don’t update the Dynasty rankings in-season because all our focus is on the season at hand.
It’s near impossible to keep up with the Dynasty valuations within the day-to-day battle in-season, but you will be able to tell Dynasty things/sentiment from all the game reports and can ask questions on the Video Q&As about Dynasty things and ask questions on the FFM Discord Private Club (via Betting subscription).
Just wanted to make sure the new FFMers knew that longstanding plan with Dynasty rankings. The next Dynasty rankings once the 2025 season starts will debut after the Super Bowl in 2026 and update from there all offseason.
-- Week 1 projections will update today...updating the baseline, so you won’t see any numbers in the ‘change’ (from last update) column. We’re just setting the baseline to start the real Fantasy Week 1 and season. But there are changes happening in the past few days, mostly minor for injury news, etc., but there are a couple bigger changes we’re making from this weekend, I will speak about them on a video planned to release today as well. I want to talk about the fast-changing situations from all the drafts I’ve seen/observed/taken part in over the long weekend, and from more study/research, and I’m gonna do that via video.
This Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday will be an avalanche of new Week 1 information and changes based on new intel, chalk talk info, injuries, etc.
After we reset the baseline Monday night with the projections update for Week 1, then we’ll update the weekly projections daily (in the evenings ET) the rest of the season...and you’ll see what has changed from the prior day’s update in the ‘CHG’ column.
-- Video Q&As this week -- a slight change just for this week.
The Tuesday Night Video Q&A will NOT be on Tuesday this week. It will be on Wednesday at 8:30pmET. I’ve got FF draft conflicts all Tuesday day/night...and Wednesday buys us all a day of information to set lineups for TNF kickoff.
Sunday morning ET will be our traditional Sit-Start show. We go from 10:30am-NoonET, every Sunday Weeks 1-18.
-- I’ve got a bunch of notes from the weekend of drafting and talking to people. So many notes that I am not going to write them here (in RC Notes)...I am instead going to turn on the camera this morning and just speak to the dozen notes that I have on players and draft hot/cold and betting on them, etc. Some fresh stuff coming on this video...you won’t want to miss it.
That video will be out as fast as I can this morning.
-- A quick side note/interesting-to-me note on Sam Ehlinger...
I thought Ehlinger looked really good this preseason, shockingly good. Still, the Broncos cut him ahead of the 53-man roster lock, but I think Denver knew something...because at least two other teams were rumored to have put claims in on him to join their practice squad...I think I’m not the only one who noticed Sam...but Sam decided to pass them up to stay in Denver, which makes sense because Ehlinger has never looked better than his year with Sean Payton.
My sources say it was Houston and Detroit who tried to get him, but I cannot confirm or deny that...could be just hunches from my sources.
If something happened to Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham would be the first one in...but if it was a long-term thing, Stidham might get bumped for Ehlinger eventually...but also Denver would probably try to make a trade for an available starter...probably Jameis Winston.
Bottom line, those in deeper leagues...don’t lose sight of/don’t write off yet Ehlinger.
-- A multipurpose announcement on Rookie Card giveaway #3...
Giveaway #3 will go to a current subscriber (via random draw) from our BETTING subscription group as of this Labor Day weekend/TONIGHT.
The reason we gave this past a week away from this drawing is to give everyone time to sign up to get ready for the new season of Betting (sub runs to the Super Bowl, then we retool for a March new season subscription start, always ending after the Super Bowl). All the props and game picks...the heavy betting season, etc., are happening now...and it was a pretty profitable season in 2024, so we’ll see if we can follow that up.
ALSO, the Betting subscription comes with access to our exclusive FFM Discord. We designed it for a place where folks can chat and comment and ask questions of the group about Fantasy or Betting or whatever. Our own private space. You don’t have to be a bettor to enjoy this ‘private club’.
We’ve not updated the Discord rolls from last season of the Betting subscriptions, so anyone planning to re-sign up for the new season -- you have all this week to do so. We’ll be updating/refreshing the Discord rolls Labor Day weekend to set our private club up for the new season.
*Our Betting Subscription (including private Discord chat access) offering/sign-up link: https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
-- Winners #1-2 of the Rookie Card Giveaway have been selected and contacted...and they made their card choice.
Giveaway criteria #3 has been underway this week/choosing the random winner tonight.
Here’s the pool we’re selecting from for Giveaway #4 (of 5): We will draw a random name from anyone who has tried out our new Chalk Talk Database offering by the opening kick of the season (Week 1 TNF) -- we will randomly draw one name from the subscriber group there and contact them THU night.
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
