Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
SUN 8/25
(8:23amET)
-- We’re going through these final preseason games and reporting out ASAP. My next one publishing, in a little bit -- the KC-CHI game where Mahomes and the 1st-team played for like a quarter+ and so did Caleb, and then Tyson Bagent threw 3 TD passes in the 4th-quarter for the improbable comeback win at the buzzer. Lots of good notes from that one.
Then I think I’ll watch the Shedeur Sanders calamity (sacked 5x in 11 snaps). I can’t wait to see whose to blame for Shedeur looking bad after everyone in the mainstream backed him with such undying, uber-confident fervor in the past week. It’s definitely not on Shedeur...he’s not to blame...right ESPN/NFL Network/People’s Republic of Football?
Also, today...I plan to publish the Week 1 projections page...just to test the connection and setup, but also I will have the DST rankings/projections for Week 1 in there for the test. The other positions will be blank but will be filling in over the next few days.
-- We found the first winner of the Rookie Card giveaway #1...a long-time existing subscriber random drawing. This subscriber goes way back over the years and has been so helpful to me/FFM because he always notices a bad typo or publishing error and is sure to give me a head’s up so we can address/fix it. He’s been a godsend for many a year. So, congrats to him. I’m sure he’ll reveal himself in the TUE night or SUN morning chats. When I see him on the chat, I’ll ask him to confirm we really sent out the goods, so there is no question! He is going through the video of the card reveals and making his selection this weekend.
Once he makes his choice, we’ll have random drawing #2...and that will be a drawing of anyone who is an existing subscriber to either the annual or monthly access or to the draft guide. If you’re subscribed to both, you have two tickets in the lottery.
Likely, we’ll make the random draw and make contact with winner #2 on Monday/Tuesday, and get their choice of one of the 4 cards remaining.
Giveaway/drawing #3 and #4 will be announced Monday...what the eligibility is/who is eligible.
-- HEADLINE: Vikings hosted QB Carson Wentz for a visit Saturday.
I suspect Kevin O’Connell is getting a tad worried about ‘what if’ J.J. McCarthy was to get injured. Sam Howell has been erratic this summer. And Brett Rypien is not a great option either. I don’t know that Carson Wentz is a great hope either. But KOC needs a veteran backup to plug in for JJM, if an injury hits...this team is too good to have bad QB play leading it.
I suspect KOC will see what QBs get cut and may opt to claim one, but if the market goes dry he’s at least doing some work on Wentz as an emergency option.
If I were the MIN GM, I’d have my eye on what the Steelers do with Skylar Thompson, but I would first call the Giants to see if I could flip a draft pick over for Jameis Winston. And if that went nowhere, I might pivot and offer a 7th or something minimal for Tommy DeVito.
-- The 53-man rosters are due TUE 8/26 afternoon/evening. The cuts are starting to roll in. The easy cuts are happening the past few days. I was looking through the cuts so far to see if anything triggered me. The only things I noted among the early cuts...
WR Dymere Miller, NYJ...one of my favorite sleeper WR prospects coming out in the draft this year (went undrafted). What I don’t know is...the background, and if he just isn’t a worker or good guy. On tape, there’s definitely something here...but he never made a peep in NYJ camp, so it’s an uphill battle now.
DL Morgan Fox, ATL...the long-time veteran getting released this early is never good.
CB Isaiah Bolden, NE...Belichick looked like he had something here to develop, but I think Bolden didn’t have the mentality/maturity to see it through.
RB Jarveon Howard, BUF...another HCLU prospect that had some promise but doesn’t seem to be ‘making it’. I kinda liked his tape/promise coming out of college, but he’s not made a dent in the NFL.
SAF Bruce Harmon, DAL...A UDFA safety for Dallas, I thought Wil McClay saw what I saw (some minor hope)...but it obviously didn’t click in the NFL.
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: Tampa Bay
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Kevin O’Connell/MIN, Dan Campbell/DET, Sean McVay/LAR, Kyle Shanahan/SF, Sean Payton/DEN, Andy Reid/KC, Jim Harbaugh/LAC, John Harbaugh/BAL
Ben Johnson/CHI, Sean McDermott/BUF, Mike Macdonald/SEA, Dave Canales/CAR, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Pete Carroll/LV, Mike Vrabel/NE, Matt LaFleur/GB, Mike Tomlin/PIT
Mike McDaniel/MIA, Nick Sirianni/PHI, Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Kellen Moore/NO, Liam Coen/JAX, Zac Taylor/CIN, Aaron Glenn/NYJ, Todd Bowles/TB, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Brian Daboll/NYG, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
SAT 8/23
-- Rookie Card Giveaway #1 (of 5)...
*See the video from 8/19 on the giveaway, if you wish.
#1 (of 5) is the O.G. Giveaway!
The first rookie card to be claimed will go to one of the original (OG) subscribers of FFM...I’ll be taking a random pull from the first group of subscribers to the new/current FFM website way back in 2023. You must still be a current subscriber that has never wavered since 2023...and that is most all of the OGs...actually, not wavered since the 2000s is most of the OGs!
The winner will be contacted via email...and they get to make their choice of the five giveaway rookie cards we have. And if you are NOT located in the U.S., or maybe in Canada worst case, then it was all an accident...you really didn’t win, I’m pulling a prank. Please don’t make me look up postage rates and duty taxes due for like E.U. or the old Soviet Union. We have some Swedish and Middle Eastern and various other placed for our subs, and I love you, but it could be a cluster to try to send out to some places. BUT it’s gonna be a random draw, so please Lord help me...
Seriously, I wanted to honor the folks who helped get this plane off the ground and helps keep it chugging up that hill with the first giveaway.
The next giveaway (#2/5) notice will be revealed tomorrow.
-- This is the final week of the preseason 2025. We’ll slow the game reporting down a hair, we’re not needing to try and beat the clock on reports before the next week’s game start. We’ll publish the Week 3 games as fast as we can, while keeping up with everything else.
Coming up ASAP, the set-up spot/first test post for the Week 1 projections for the 2025 season...the test post for setup of Week 1 player projections/rankings will be out Sunday.
It’s about that time. Kickoff of the season is right around the corner.
-- TRADE: 49ers acquired RB Brian Robinson from the Commanders in exchange for a sixth-round pick.
The 49ers needed anything at RB given the epidemic of injuries they have sustained at RB this season, as they have most seasons the past few years. I don’t think it’s a commentary on any specific CMC worry or Isaac Guerendo current issue, more that it is a commentary on the 49ers' abject fear of RB injury in general. A 6th-round pick for an established RB is nothing/not much to pay.
If it feels like Washington just dumped BRob. cold out of nowhere, it is because they kinda did. I’m not sure why they didn’t move Robinson months ago...instead of the rumor leaking, his value driven into the dirt, and then they wind up getting little for him. If the 49ers are picking up a lot of or all his salary, then it was a minor win for Washington with this late cast-off. But if the Commanders are paying most or all his salary -- this is very fishy/odd. First glance, unofficial, I think the Commanders paid $1.5M of BRob’s $3.7M due this year. SF is taking on the other $2.2M guaranteed.
Why didn’t other teams get in on BRob., those that needed RB depth? I’m guessing most of the league, rightfully so, were scared off by WHY all the sudden did Washington just punt on BRob. now? Why not back in March or April or May? There’s something we all don’t know...that we might get to know in a few days, about this. Because on the surface, I don’t get this move at all...from a timing or details standpoint...only if something is weird behind-the-scenes with Robinson does this make more sense.
-- NBC Headline: ESPN’s Mike Reiss believes Kyle Williams will open the season as the Patriots’ WR5.
Everything is pointing downward for my boy right now. Just as he was getting going in preseason Week 2, with Josh Dobbs, he got whacked in the head (and held on to the ball) and left the game and is losing valuable time in camp.
For some reason, the Patriots genius offensive minds *insert eyeroll here* are insisting on Kayshon Boutte as a starter and/or above Kyle. And they are about to get scorched by their radical overpay on Stefon Diggs.
...and all of it may not matter because Drake Maye is absolutely dreadful.
We are definitely not getting a fast start from Kyle Williams. I would not reach for him into the 1st-round (late) of a DRD, as I might have a few weeks ago...he has lost any momentum and is falling in ADP now in the mainstream. If you don’t draft him or missed him already, I think you’ll be able to acquire him at a decent price at various points of Sept., Oct., and maybe into Nov., if you wish. We’ll see.
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: Seattle
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Kevin O’Connell/MIN, Dan Campbell/DET, Sean McVay/LAR, Kyle Shanahan/SF, Sean Payton/DEN, Andy Reid/KC, Jim Harbaugh/LAC, John Harbaugh/BAL
Ben Johnson/CHI, Sean McDermott/BUF, Mike Macdonald/SEA, Dave Canales/CAR, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Pete Carroll/LV, Mike Vrabel/NE, Matt LaFleur/GB, Mike Tomlin/PIT
Mike McDaniel/MIA, Nick Sirianni/PHI, Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Kellen Moore/NO, Liam Coen/JAX, Zac Taylor/CIN, Aaron Glenn/NYJ, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Brian Daboll/NYG, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
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*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
8/22 FRI
(8:32amET)
-- HEADLINE: Commanders head coach Dan Quinn indicated Chris Rodriguez Jr. is “likely” to handle short-yardage and goal-line rushing duties.
I’m paying attention to it but not going to overact to this news. It’s what Quinn would figure to say, right now. But what we don’t know is: Whether WSH will acquire a running back and change the current plans.
It’s telling that Quinn did not say that Rodriguez would compete for the starting role, or they’d do a random committee...he just comes out and spells out a specific, narrow plan. So, we know there is no notion of Rodriquez as a serious thought to be the lead or a split lead with Austi8n Ekeler. Rodriquez is seen as ‘just a piece’.
-- HEADLINE: Rams head coach Sean McVay said Matthew Stafford (back) is practicing in full this week.
If this is true, then it will be full steam ahead with the Rams ‘things’. He didn’t say ‘back at practice’, generically...it was ‘practicing in full’.
But we also know McVay’s Stafford predictions on his practicing haven’t always been correct the past few weeks. Let’s see it to believe it.
I am seeing all the analysts on major football TV go ‘nothing to really worry about’ (when asked about Stafford)...then when they explain why, they go something like: Well, he’s just so tough that I’m sure he’ll be fine. THAT’S NOT INSIDER INFO, GUYS!!! That’s a barstool, drunk, opinion with no evidence at all.
-- HEADLINE: ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime reports Jayden Higgins is “rotating” with Xavier Hutchinson on the outside when the Texans play three wideouts.
The Texans offense in the preseason looks kinda sad. I don’t know what the new O-C is doing, but it didn’t boost or show anything with the 2nd/3rd-team offense in the preseason at all. Maybe he is hiding his trickery?
The 1st-team offense didn’t exactly sparkle in Week 1, per se, either. They drafted two terrific talents at WR from Iowa State this year, and they have shown almost nothing in the preseason...like is anyone working with them...can you throw them the ball to get them up to speed or does this offense just suck...again?
They’re going to need some kind of hammering, terrific interior running RB to help carry this offense...if only they had such a guy...;)
-- HEADLINE: ESPN’s Kevin Seifert reports Vikings WRs Jordan Addison and Tai Felton will have “no issues going forward” after suffering arm injuries in Wednesday’s practice.
I’ve had more than one person tell me the Vikings are trying to bring back Adam Thielen...and that the Harrison Phillips trade was done, not because they wanted him gone, but to clear CAP space and acquire late picks for their arsenal to trade for A.T.
That will NOT be good news for Jordan Addison going forward. It will be great news for J.J. McCarthy/the Vikings as a whole.
-- A was asked to participate in a FantasyPros ‘poll of experts’ on the best sleeper (players ranked outside the obvious) at each position...to my surprise, because FantasyPros hasn’t reached out to me for years. F-Pros was the first website to ever reach out to me and want my opinions published on their site and was very kind to me back in the day, so I am happy to help them/participate when I can. I had the very popular ‘Very Deep Sleeper’ annual series published with them back in the day.
You might be fascinated by the results of the voting for their segment...and should take note for upcoming drafts..
Here were the top 10 vote getters (regardless of position)...
10) Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WSH...the news about Brian Robinson hit Sun./Mon., but some of us had already submitted our votes by then.
9) TE Kyle Pitts, ATL
8) WR Travis Hunter, JAX
7) WR Emeka Egbuka, TB...Jalen McMillan news was hitting in this range too.
6) QB Bryce Young, CAR
5) QB Drake Maye, NE
4) TE Tyler Warren, IND
3) WR Ricky Pearsall, SF
2) QB JJ McCarthy, MIN
1) QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX
You know what this list has in common? A couple of things...
1) Nine 1st-round draft picks, current year or prior. It would’ve been 10-for-10 if the Brian Robinson news had not hit. #10 would’ve been Anthony Richardson. Fantasy Football analysts, 99% of them, do not scout anything...they are human ChatGPTs...they take/aggregate the consensus opinion from listening to ESPN and NFL Network and spit back the collected consensus, and there is no better scouting opinion one can have than a player being taken high in the first round.
2) This list is filled with garbage QBs...but also JJ McCarthy (not garbage) getting love that I didn’t think he would. Not on the list oddly to me...Michael Penix. The mainstream does not like Penix...they do like McCarthy, though, way more than I thought. But Penix was a 3rd-4th-round QB prospect that shocked by going 1st-round. Analysts are usually stuck on a player’s draft ranking in April before they get drafted as much as ‘where they actually got drafted’.
3) Trevor got 11 votes. JJM got 8 votes...the #1-2 punch leading vote getters. The 10th name here, JCM got 5 votes. And that was out of 50+ votes. There’s no ‘sleeper’ that half+ or anything close to half all voted for. Everybody’s got their own sleepers...so there is no obvious, unified sleeper for the masses, I guess if there were they wouldn’t be sleepers (outside the top consensus ranks). Trevor was about as close as it got...which is absolutely perfect that the QB they guzzled the biggest batch of Kool-Aid on years ago, they still ‘believe’ is generational.
4) Six of the 10 players on the list are non-QBs. Of the six of them...4 are rookies. We love ‘dem rookies.
5) Who did I vote for?
QB = Penix (he got 2 votes total of the 50+ experts voting)
RB = Nick Chubb (he also got 2 votes)
WR = Marvin Mims (I think he got 2 votes here too)
TE = Jake Ferguson (also, 2 votes)
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: San Francisco
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Kevin O’Connell/MIN, Dan Campbell/DET, Sean McVay/LAR, Kyle Shanahan/SF, Sean Payton/DEN, Andy Reid/KC, Jim Harbaugh/LAC, John Harbaugh/BAL
Ben Johnson/CHI, Dave Canales/CAR, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Pete Carroll/LV, Sean McDermott/BUF, Mike Vrabel/NE, Matt LaFleur/GB, Mike Tomlin/PIT
Mike McDaniel/MIA, Nick Sirianni/PHI, Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Kellen Moore/NO, Liam Coen/JAX, Zac Taylor/CIN, Aaron Glenn/NYJ, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Brian Daboll/NYG, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
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*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
8/21 THU
(7:11amET)
-- Preseason Week 3 starts tonight with two games...
PIT at CAR and NE and NYG
Four of the weaker offenses in the NFL on the schedule tonight. Two of them know their QBs are struggling, NE and CAR, but only one is playing their lead QB tonight (CAR). NYG thinks they’re fine because they’ve head faked themselves this preseason. And PIT...Aaron Rodgers doesn’t work the preseason.
Bryce Young is gonna try to get ‘right’ tonight against possibly one of the best backup defenses of the preseason (PIT). Full scale panic is possibly about to hit Carolina if Bryce gets squashed again. But the Panthers management will do what every NFL team does in these situations: they’ll say ‘it’s just the preseason’, and they’ll claim how good they looked in the practices all week leading up and that they just need to focus or clean-up stuff for Week 1.
*The trades have just begun, as we close in on 53-man roster cutdown time*
A first reaction to yesterday’s set of deals:
-- 49ers acquired WR Skyy Moore from the Chiefs in exchange for swapping 2027 sixth and seventh-round picks.
Skyy Moore is a bust. The 49ers are beyond desperate for WRs...DeMarcus Robinson just got suspended. Aiyuk definitely out. Who knows about Jauan? Pearsall always slipping on banana peels. A desperate...wasted act trading for Skyy.
-- Saints acquired WR Devaughn Vele from the Broncos in exchange for a 2026 sixth-round pick and 2027 seventh-round pick.
Why would the 49ers not have gone for Vele? Likely, they weren’t given the chance. This smacks of an undersell trade as a tip of the cap to Sean Payton’s old team. There’s no way Vele should’ve gone for that low of a trade with ALL the needy teams out there AND with Vele’s talent...insane that this was the exchange. Vele goes to be a #3 WR on one of the weakest passing games to start the 2025 season...not real ‘boost’ for Vele’s FF-future, but better in New Orleans than in loaded Denver.
-- Jets acquired DT Harrison Phillips and a 2027 seventh-round pick from the Vikings in exchange for 2026 and 2027 sixth-round picks.
Not a major deal, but I’m surprised the Vikings let Phillips go being he’s such a great community and locker room guy. He must be at the end of the road, and the Vikings are giving him a chance somewhere else to hang on.
-- Headline: Bears signed QB Tyson Bagent to a two-year contract extension worth $10 million. The deal has another $6 million in incentives linked to playing time and production.
You should know how I felt about this news when it hit yesterday.
The wagons are being circled around Caleb...he has an ever-shrinking amount of ‘leash’ to perform or the S will hit the fan.
My commentary: Watch this video and you tell me who the future QB of the Bears is gonna be. You tell me if Caleb Williams has this ‘person’ inside of him. You tell if the person in this video is gonna stop grinding...
https://youtu.be/KkJneQsVoJk?si=RDGpJmqCgz-18ElR
-- Just a quick plug on a ‘Chalk Talk Database’ matter...
All the ever-changing Matt Stafford quotes from Sean McVay are dizzying and all on ‘Chalk Talk’. It’s like criminal interrogation transcripts you can read through trying to figure out the clues of whether the witness is telling the truth or not...in this case about Matt Stafford’s back, and how much they really know and seeing what they are not trying to say...but they can’t help themselves but ‘talk’.
It's really getting ‘sticky’...and there’s new, ever evolving, ever mystifying quotes on ‘Chalk Talk’ everyday because McVay, rightfully so, is being peppered with questions daily on this.
A lot of FF-things, and betting things, hinge on what’s really happening with Stafford’s back.
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: Pittsburgh
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Kevin O’Connell/MIN, Dan Campbell/DET, Sean McVay/LAR, Sean Payton/DEN, Andy Reid/KC, Jim Harbaugh/LAC, John Harbaugh/BAL
Ben Johnson/CHI, Dave Canales/CAR, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Pete Carroll/LV, Sean McDermott/BUF, Mike Vrabel/NE, Matt LaFleur/GB, Mike Tomlin/PIT
Mike McDaniel/MIA, Nick Sirianni/PHI, Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Kellen Moore/NO, Liam Coen/JAX, Zac Taylor/CIN, Aaron Glenn/NYJ, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Brian Daboll/NYG, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
WED 8/20
(7:08pmET)
-- Last night’s Video Q&A gets into several topics on a deeper level. It’s available on demand to watch or listen to via YouTube app or on the web.
-- HEADLINE: Colts coach Shane Steichen said that it is “hard to say” there’s a future in Indianapolis for Anthony Richardson.
NBC Commentary: “Obviously, Daniel (Jones) is our starter right now. And if something happens to Daniel at some point, AR gets another opportunity,” Steichen continued. It’s not exactly a smoking gun statement, but it is damning about Richardson’s chances of playing this season that Steichen couldn’t even give a token pushback on the question.
RC Note: I was surprised the Colts went with Daniel Jones after all. It’s the outcome I REALLY wanted, for a variety of reasons, but I started to think the competition was so bad between these two that the Colts management (in its final year of employ) would take their chances with the playmaker. Instead, they chose what NFL coaches choose: The game manager...the QB that can talk Xs and Os comfortably with the head coach.
This seals the deal on my original opinion when the Colts signed Jones...they signed Jones with every intention of making him the starter because priority #1 was them wanting to get away from Anthony Richardson. It’s not normal for a super high pick QB to be benched early in year two for ‘work ethic’ issues (among other reasons). Things have to be REALLY bad to pull that trigger...to admit the failure. It’s probably worse than we know behind-the-scenes with AR...that has been my thought all along, since last year...thus I was dumping Richardson last year and this offseason in Dynasty. I was willing to take .50 cents on the dollar before it would be 0.00 cents.
The raw talent was/is there. The IQ/testing seemed fine. But something/some issue hard to scout was lurking. One of the Colts new owner’s first acts in charge was to fire the scout who sold the team on Richardson. That was another ‘tell’ we discussed this summer. She would’ve fired me too, because I thought Richardson would be a great QB prospect too...raw tools unlike anything we may have ever seen in the league at QB...certainly he’d only get better in the pros, he seemed like he had a good enough head on his shoulders.
Nope.
What I think happens from here is 50/50: 50% chance...the Colts will retain Richardson. They will likely not trade him. They cannot have him go to Jim Harbaugh or somewhere where they make him a star. They’ll sit on Richardson for the season...he’ll likely be put back into the lineup around midseason when Dimes leads the ship to sink...they’ll trade Dimes before the deadline and run with Richardson...or give Riley Leonard a shot.
They will retain Richardson to give the next head coach and GM some time to work with him and see what they can do with him...the old regime will be fired in-season or at the end of the season. Ballard likely fired in November to get a jump on the new hiring. Steichen to be fired after the season. The new owner is going to bring in ‘her’ people...as she should.
50% chance...Richardson is traded in the next two weeks...to remove him from the locker room/organization...to clear things up for the next regime in 2026. The new owner won’t care if AR goes somewhere and does well...it’s more justification to fire the current regime. I think the new owner would love to finish last and get the #1 pick...and do a Manning 2.0 thing. How wonderful would that be?
Dan Jones starting is good FF-news for...
Jon Taylor not competing with AR for rushing TDs and actually getting an S-load of dump passes.
Josh Downs getting the Wan’Dale string of heavy short targets.
Tyler Warren getting short passes with decent volume.
Riley Leonard to get a look later in the season...or by midseason.
It’s bad FF-news for: Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, the downfield receivers that Dimes cannot reach consistently with his limited arm.
-- HEADLINE: Tampa Bay Times’ Rick Stroud reports Jalen McMillan will be placed on injured reserve and could be out “past the Bucs Week 9 bye.”
So, McMillan and Godwin together will be out for possibly 3-4+ weeks into the season.
A big FF-win for Emeka Egbuka...another boost for Mike Evans.
Who is the #3? I think it will be Ryan Miller...and not Tez Johnson, but they may just split that role to some degree. And that Ryan Miller is no joke.
Maybe Rachaad White plays more passing downs with Bucky on the field at the same time.
None of this is a help/boost for Baker...now missing two starting WRs and his starting LT.
-- HEADLINE: ESPN’s Adam Schefter believes the Cowboys and EDGE Micah Parsons are “headed towards divorce in time.”
RC Note: I still refuse to believe this, but multiple sources are reporting a similar vibe. In the end, I don’t think Jerry Jones has the guts to trade Parsons.
Atlanta has been desperate to acquire Parsons for two years now, which shows you how weakly run the Falcons are. Every time teams get suckered into trading for and/or paying a pass rusher big-time money, it almost never works out...never lives up in ROI...but NFL people are moths to a flame with pass rushers.
If I had a son going to college next season, I would legally change his last name to Bosa to ensure he’d be drafted in the 1st-round of the NFL Draft in 3-4 years. Even though my son doesn’t play football, it wouldn’t matter...it only matters the ‘hope’ of the pass rusher...not the reality/results. I’m proud of my new fake son, RC Fischer-Bosa. Wait, I just got an email...the Browns are offering him 5-years, $150M guaranteed sight unseen...once they saw his name on the dark web. Are they monitoring our computers? They want to pair him with Myles Garrett. I didn’t even know my fake son was a criminal, a Browns pre-requisite for big deals. Hmmmm.
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: Philadelphia
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Kevin O’Connell/MIN, Dan Campbell/DET, Sean McVay/LAR, Sean Payton/DEN, Andy Reid/KC, Jim Harbaugh/LAC, John Harbaugh/BAL
Ben Johnson/CHI, Dave Canales/CAR, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Pete Carroll/LV, Sean McDermott/BUF, Mike Vrabel/NE, Matt LaFleur/GB
Mike McDaniel/MIA, Nick Sirianni/PHI, Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Kellen Moore/NO, Liam Coen/JAX, Zac Taylor/CIN, Aaron Glenn/NYJ, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Brian Daboll/NYG, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
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*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
TUE 8/19
(7:39amET)
-- Tonight we have our Tuesday Night Video Q&A...8:30pmET to 10p? We’ll go as long as the questions and comments are flowing. Access to the show will be posted on FFM between 8-8:15pmET.
-- There will be a special release video today, from me/RC.
I was sent a box of sports cards from a long-time FFMer and avid/serious (SERIOUS) card collector. All I was told was that it was a box of five rookie cards and they were to be given out as giveaways for however I saw fit.
I had no idea what cards they were, whether they were all football or a mix...whether they were expensive or mere commons (I had no thought/reason to believe that they would be junk...and I was right).
So, I received the box in the mail, and I kept it sealed to do a live open reveal on video. I have recorded that video, slicing open the box, opening them up and showing each one...and did a quick eBay search of their values on each as they were revealed. Some of them were unique enough that they had little to comp to...but I did the best I could to see what they were worth.
We’re going to give these cards away...but most/all are going to go to current customers...to honor and thank long time and current customers and not to try to use it to bait any new customers like we’re some car dealership with whacky inflatable tube men flailing around. No. We honor the people who helped build this little engine that could first. I discuss my ideas on what the random giveaways of the cards will be/what group is eligible on the video.
This is a gift from a fellow FFMer...a thank you to the community. Who’s gonna step and try to out do them for a next giveaway for the community?
Not a card collector? Hey, if you get randomly chosen for one of the cards...is it something that someone in your life that is a collector may LOVE as a valuable gift? Or you take it to a card store and flip it for some $$$. It’s yours to do with what you wish.
That video will be out randomly some time today. The giveaways will start this week...and I’ll detail it ahead of each kind of giveaway. Watch the video, you’ll understand...and even if you aren’t a collector, you’ll enjoy the intrigue of finding out the burning question of ‘what’s in the box’...and a bonus of enjoyment with me struggling to open the box at first...
https://youtube.com/shorts/fV9JldncTMY?si=GV8YAf4UuVIF34Q9
-- Monday Night Football...last night...
Keep in mind, for any redrafts happening in the next 1-100 hours...everything that happens on a solo night game, especially MNF, even in the preseason, is blown way out of proportion and shifts the markets/valuations on players.
When people/FF owners see something with their own two eyes, live, and then the ESPN/NFL Network brigade talks about it for 24 hours straight playing the same 2-3 highlights over and over and over -- it causes an instant overreaction.
So, from last night’s game...
Jacory Croskey-Merritt was already in the launch position with the BRob. news and the fact that he is a magical unicorn rookie capable of untold fame and fortune...but then he enters the game last night against arguably the worst defense in the NFL, with their backups playing/starting some, and on his second run of the night...JCM runs through a hole that was open by 5+ yards in all directions, so he just ran to open field and into the end zone completely untouched -- so, because of that non-reality run, now he’s getting fitted for a gold jacket. We saw it on TV with our very own eyes!!! His ADP is gonna blast off.
Ditto Chris Rodriquez, who did the same exact thing before JCM ever took a touch...had a big run through a wide-open/gaping hole running unfettered -- but he’s boring old news/not-a-rookie RB, so it’s not as exciting as when rookie Croskey-Merritt does it. BUT it will push Rodrique’s value/ADP up some for sure...from the zero it was 24 hours ago, to something now.
Chase Brown scored a TD opening drive last night, so no stopping his ADP climb.
Charlie Jones caught a TD pass, so his ADP will start to rise from the depths/dead.
I’ll have more on this game today, later. I just moved it up my scheduled games to do/to study to the very next game to process today, so that report will be out in the 2nd-half of the day.
-- My latest on the Brian Robinson fiasco was posted last night, an update from the Sunday news/reaction. Who knows what the news will be today. A trade or cut will likely happen next week, after the preseason Week 3 and before the 53-man roster must be locked in.
-- Headline: Browns signed WR Isaiah Bond to a three-year, $3.018 million contract.
RC Note: All guaranteed $3M...totally unreal. The Browns do something more mystifying everyday it seems. Definitely the worst run team in the NFL. No one is even close. Ryan Poles thanks you for your service.
-- Headline: ESPN’s Rob Demovsky reports Packers RB MarShawn Lloyd could miss the Packers’ season-opener or more after suffering a hamstring injury.
Has Marshawn Lloyd ever gone a week of his NFL life without being hurt? Emanuel Wilson is not listed as the Packers #2 RB. Do you possess Josh Jacobs?
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: NY Jets
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Kevin O’Connell/MIN, Dan Campbell/DET, Sean McVay/LAR, Sean Payton/DEN, Andy Reid/KC, Jim Harbaugh/LAC, John Harbaugh/BAL
Ben Johnson/CHI, Dave Canales/CAR, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Pete Carroll/LV, Sean McDermott/BUF, Mike Vrabel/NE, Matt LaFleur/GB
Mike McDaniel/MIA, Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Kellen Moore/NO, Liam Coen/JAX, Zac Taylor/CIN, Aaron Glenn/NYJ, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Brian Daboll/NYG, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
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*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
MON 8/18
(8:22amET)
-- Trade yesterday: Eagles acquired WR John Metchie III from the Texans in exchange for a Day 3 pick swap and TE Harrison Bryant.
No big deal here. The Eagles already had a botched trade for Jahan Dotson last year, now they are just adding some depth with Metchie (who they may cut in 2 weeks) who is really not a legit NFL WR threat...just a body...a #5-6 WR who provides depth. The Eagles have had an issue with their #3 WR, and for as great as they have been in most phases of personnel management -- the Eagles have floundered around for a #3 WR.
I don’t think Metchie is an answer either...just I like I didn’t believe Dotson was. I’ve seen enough Metchie work to know he’s a weak #3 or more a #5-6 WR. Not crazy to take a look and see if anything has changed with him since he was zapped of powers (my opinion) during his unfortunate cancer battle as a rookie.
The Texans needed Harrison Bryant/a TE once they lost Brevin Jordan for the season due to injury.
For me... Nothing to FF-see here.
-- Headline: NFL insider Jordan Schultz reports the Panthers, Browns, and Colts are among the teams interested in trading for Trey Hendrickson.
It looks like he is getting more likely to be traded...and I would deal him if I were an NFL GM. Not because I don’t respect him, but more that I think pass rushers are the biggest wastes of money in the NFL.
Where he winds up...who knows? I’ve thought a move to Washington would be in the cards all along.
-- NBC Headline: ESPN’s Jordan Raanan reports Malik Nabers is dealing with a back injury that’s been described as “normal back tightness.”
It was reported last week that Nabers was missing practice due to a shoulder injury. Now, there’s a back injury that may or may not be related to his shoulder injury. It’s hard to know without an official team injury report. Regardless, Nabers hasn’t practiced in 11 days and seems unlikely to appear in the team’s final preseason game against the Patriots next week.
RC Note: Now a back issue...and a shoulder issue (last week)...and a foot issue (the past 2 years). Not good. How can you draft him in Round 1 with all the other great options out there? We don’t know if these are all minor things/excuses to not practice and then he’s gonna waltz right into Week 1 and be a god or not. A very high price to pay with so many alternatives to find out.
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: NY Giants
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Kevin O’Connell/MIN, Dan Campbell/DET, Sean McVay/LAR, Sean Payton/DEN, Andy Reid/KC, Jim Harbaugh/LAC, John Harbaugh/BAL
Dave Canales/CAR, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Ben Johnson/CHI, Pete Carroll/LV, Sean McDermott/BUF, Mike Vrabel/NE, Matt LaFleur/GB
Zac Taylor/CIN, Mike McDaniel/MIA, Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Kellen Moore/NO, Liam Coen/JAX, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Brian Daboll/NYG, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
