Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
SUN 8/17
(8:35amET)
-- Lots of games went off on Saturday...and all the reports will flow for the next 5 days before we start it all again Thursday night.
DRD updates version 17 will update a couple of times during the week, as we go through the preseason Week 2 tape.
-- Where do I prefer to draft from in a redraft this year? It’s a fluid thing, but right now my preferences/overview is...
First half (of 12-team) of the draft slots looks better than the 2nd half, in general.
Picks 1-2-3-4 are nice, 2-3-4 I’d almost rather have than #1 depending on the scoring system.
Picks 5-6-7-8 (in 12-team) is the next best range.
Usually/past years, I want to draft in the #10-12 slot area (in 12-tm) but this year I’d rather not if I can help it. But we can make later round picks work...but it’s trickier...might have to throw some curveballs at it and draft some guys a spot higher than you might if you had a middle range or lower pick.
It’s a little bit about who you get in the first round...but it’s more about your plan for who you want in rounds 2-3-4-5.
-- NBC Headline: ESPN’s Sarah Barshop reports “a Rams spokesperson declined comment” on whether or not Matthew Stafford (back) worked out as scheduled on Saturday.
Similar to what he did last weekend, Stafford was scheduled to work out before Saturday’s preseason game to test the back injury that has sidelined him throughout training camp. The same spokesperson also said head coach Sean McVay would address the situation on Monday, leaving us to wonder what the next report in this saga could entail. Stafford was unable to practice last week despite plans for him to return to the field on Monday, and now the team is being cagey about his Saturday workout after publicizing it the previous week.
RC Note: Now it’s time to worry.
If McVay had just said they are taking it easy with Stafford and didn’t put a date on it, then we’d be concerned but ‘in the dark’ on what is happening, and probably assuming everything would likely be fine before Week 1.
BUT the Rams keep putting dates on this and then Stafford isn’t meeting those dates. The first time, maybe it would be forgivable...a mix up. Two in a week...we’ve got issues.
It’s time for me to start taking down Rams things related to Stafford, just a bit...not all the way yet...but pretty much I have to remove Puka Nacua from the ‘HOLY list’ (draft guide report) for now and knock him down a few pegs in projections.
Kyren Williams will also dip...he’s a product of a solid Rams offense. We don’t know what’s gonna happen with Jimmy G. I think JG is ‘OK’, but he’s not Stafford.
Davante Adams rises a touch...he’s connected to Jimmy G. from their days in Las Vegas.
Here’s an inside look at the process behind-the-scenes at FFM on the Rams ‘things’ last night when the Stafford news hit: https://youtu.be/COr5qHaRbcY?si=gscmZe6_KTdfTkdY&t=11
-- Once again, my Parlays are thwarted by one team on betting yesterday. Everything was going my way and then I needed the Jets to win or cover (+3.5 for NYJ) to tie it all together...a 3-leg and 4-leg Parlay was ready to payout if the Jets won outright or covered with +3.5...and then I see an 80-yard pass from Russell Wilson to open the game and as I watched the Jets lay down with 2nd/3rd-stringers in the game quickly...while NYG is playing Russell Wilson against the backups for almost an entire half. Why was Russ working that game so long?
I thought the Jets would come to try to kill NYG, going with 1st-teamers for longer and I thought the Giants would protect Russ and go with more Dart. Nope.
I think Daboll kept Russ out there for almost a half hoping he’d get hurt so he could push Jaxson Dart Week 1. Just a conspiracy theory.
I felt so sick watching it/watching my long shot payouts go down the drain...plus I had the flu or something, so I was literally sick too...and I rarely get sick/colds/flus, but I did for the last 48 hours. I slept 9 hours last night...and that NEVER happens unless I’m on some sedative from a surgery recovery or something. Should be back to normal today, midday. I feel sore but less-sick this morning.
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: New Orleans
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Kevin O’Connell/MIN, Dan Campbell/DET, Sean McVay/LAR, Sean Payton/DEN, Andy Reid/KC, Jim Harbaugh/LAC, John Harbaugh/BAL
Dave Canales/CAR, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Ben Johnson/CHI, Pete Carroll/LV, Sean McDermott/BUF, Mike Vrabel/NE, Matt LaFleur/GB
Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Zac Taylor/CIN, Mike McDaniel/MIA, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Liam Coen/JAX, Kellen Moore/NO, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
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SAT 8/16
(8:09amET)
-- Big day of football games today...11 games. Crazy day...and a crazy week of studying it all has begun.
Last night we had a boring Titans vs. non-Penix Atlanta matchup, but there are a few things to discuss there for FF.
After that, Seattle, and another home team running starters and feeding off the crowd momentum in the preseason, went out and whacked KC. I watched about two drives of that game before hitting the bed...and I got a lot of notes just from the one series.
Both those game reports will be out at various times today. TEN-ATL midday and KC-SEA tonightET.
-- NBC Headline: NBC Sports Houston’s Aaron Wilson reports, Joe Mixon (foot, ankle) “is not considered a lock to be ready for” the Texans’ Week 1 game against the Rams.
RC Note: This news/Mixon general concern started picking up more momentum Friday mid-morningET...and as it heated up, we sent out an afternoon RC Note alert mid-afternoonET...then the rumors/fears really started popping out nationally in the eveningET.
We’ve pushed this Mixon-injury story months ago, but it’s really starting to hit the mainstream now...and what triggered me about this story yesterday was all the Dameon Pierce talk/chatter that started landing at my feet.
Prior to Mixon fears hitting the RotoBlurbs Friday night, there was this Friday afternoon...
NBC Headline: Texans OC Nick Caley praised Dameon Pierce for being a “physical, violent runner” in camp.
RC Note: Oddly, to me, because there was all kinds of Pierce talk coming my way the past 24 hours...then this NBC headline popped up.
Expect Mixon’s ADP to really start to sink in redrafts ahead...as we noted it was starting to happen on with drafts that I was observing last week. As Mixon falls WAY out of redraft favor, I sense/it’s obvious Dameon Pierce is going to get a real boost...part/a lot of the Pierce push is gonna come from the mainstream dislike/writing off of Nick Chubb, because FF analysts still HATE ‘age’...older RBs to FF analysts and owners are like a crucifix to a vampire.
The ‘age’ people are using measurement devices developed and created in the 80s, 90s, 00s, 10s...the world has changed dramatically in just the past 2-3 years, rendering the whole age arguments totally null and void and our ever changing to where last year’s trend is questionably valid this year. Too many scientific and medical breakthroughs and athletes are so better trained/created/maintained now. But the FF analysts have not changed with it, so therefore ‘Nick Chubb is shot’ is the easy thing to say...just like ‘Derrick Henry is shot’ they said last year or ‘Mike Evans is about done’ and ‘Adam Thielen has to be done’. Every case is unique now.
Today at 1pmET we might get to see ‘how they are moving’ (Chubb and Pierce) when Houston hosts Carolina. If you’ve been with me most/all of this year, you know where I stand...but I do want to see them in motion...I hope to see them in motion this afternoon.
-- NBC Headline: Colts HC Shane Steichen said “sooner rather than later would be nice” when asked about when he would like to name the QB1.
RC Note: I get the feeling the Colts are now praying for Anthony Richardson to seize this job now. I think, 3-4-5 months ago, they were ready and willing to ride with Daniel Jones and let AR sit/simmer, but now that they are seeing how bad Dan Dimes is...and that AR hasn’t gotten really any better either...and now they’re in a pinch, and if they are in a pinch I think they will go with Richardson Week 1 and pray he runs his way to victories, because they can’t count on his passing.
If Richardson is good/safe/OK/not bad today, they may hand him the job next week and pray. If AR tanks today, the Colts are in a bind. I think reality is settling in that Dimes was not the savvy bridge to fixing AR. Another terrible QB decision by GM Chris Ballard, who is on like a decade’s long roll of bad QB decisions and yet is never questioned in the national media. I’m sure Ballard will fix this ‘next year’ (what they say every year).
Carlie Irsay ain’t having it...is my prediction. A reckoning is coming to Indy.
-- NBC Headline: The Akron Beacon Journal’s Chris Easterling reports Browns LB Devin Bush’s trial for his domestic violence case has been scheduled for December 2nd.
I just wanted to put this in the notes to shake my head at how poorly the Browns are run, as we discussed here the other day. And Devin Bush is terrible as a linebacker, and now this side issue to deal with...and yet the Browns are starting him (as of the latest depth charts).
This franchise is unreal.
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: New England
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Kevin O’Connell/MIN, Dan Campbell/DET, Sean McVay/LAR, Sean Payton/DEN, Andy Reid/KC, Jim Harbaugh/LAC, John Harbaugh/BAL
Dave Canales/CAR, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Ben Johnson/CHI, Pete Carroll/LV, Sean McDermott/BUF, Mike Vrabel/NE, Matt LaFleur/GB
Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Zac Taylor/CIN, Mike McDaniel/MIA, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Liam Coen/JAX, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
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*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
8/15 FRI
(4:19pm)
-- Get ready for ‘the turn’ on Joe Mixon. I mean, it was already underway...but now, I think, it’s gonna really accelerate.
This tweet/X post (from a good follow/medical analysis person on X) is going around today and has people stirred up: https://x.com/jmthrivept/status/1956358919007203786
Obviously, this is good news for those who are on the Nick Chubb journey with me this entire year...whether you got on the bus with me in February or just yesterday in a redraft, and everything in-between.
But one other note to consider: Dameon Pierce has been working with Chubb with the ‘#1s’ at RB...and Pierce is getting some heat now, and it’s gonna pop when the RotoBlurbs start running with it. The mainstream is gonna push Pierce because they think Chubb is shot.
If you have Chubb, having Pierce isn’t crazy to have two bets on the race. Or if you want a lottery ticket on this backfield otherwise, in Pierce. A mass movement to chase Pierce hot will happen soon/any moment now.
(7:38amET)
-- All the Week 1 preseason games have been reported out.
Preseason Week 2 games begin tonight. Reports on those games begin Saturday and run through the week.
**The knucklehead reports...**
-- Headline: ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports Rashee Rice’s disciplinary hearing is scheduled for September 30th.
RC Note: Rice has already been convicted (30 days in jail coming) and he’s already settled his case ($1M to be paid, that he missed the first payment on) -- so this meeting has to be the ONE and only to make the suspension and rules around it (staying away from the team or can practice with them, etc.).
I would (pure) guess that he’s gonna get 6-8+ games starting Week 5...but possibly a suspension for the rest of the season.
I don’t even know how to value him properly for redraft. Basically, it’s a Shark Tank valuation...’I’m out’. There’s other WRs to work with. If he falls, and you are looking for a hot start for 4-5 weeks...there’s value in that. But he’d have to fall to like 100+ ADP for me to have some interest, but he is in and around a 50 ADP right now.
-- Two Headlines: (1) Jordan Schultz reports that Browns RB Quinshon Judkins “will not face any formal charges, as prosecutors have declined to move forward with the case.”
(2) NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reports that the NFL “will continue its own investigation” into Browns RB Quinshon Judkins’ misdemeanor domestic battery charge.
RC Note: Possible suspension for a game or two, but it looks like (my uneducated opinion) Judkins did something like pay the person outside the court, and they didn’t want to pursue anything further as part of the agreement, so the prosecutors moved on with their lives. Or the other person may have been very suspect in what she claimed. Who knows? But it’s over now.
So, there is no jail time or crime essentially, but the NFL still does their own investigation and could invoke a small suspension.
For FF purposes, we’re talking about the Browns...so, Judkins will be signed soon and probably rammed right into the starting lineup. Jerome Ford’s value drops...only good for if Judkins gets a quick 1-2 game suspension to start the season, but the NFL may not even look into this until next season.
Assume a Judkins/Ford split coming to start the season but then they push and push Judkins as quick as they can.
NBC Headline: Cleveland’s Mary Kay Cabot reports that the Browns “are doing their diligence” on former Texas WR Isaiah Bond and have not signed him “yet.”
RC Note: Bond is another knucklehead, and he’s OK fast but not all that talented a WR...so, he’s the perfect profile for the Cleveland Browns. I’m sure they’ll sign him...because no other NFL team has a lower lack of dignity nor worse personnel moves in general than the Browns organization.
**Injury News...**
-- NBC Headline: When asked if Matthew Stafford’s (back) inability to practice is related to function or pain tolerance, Rams head coach Sean McVay said he thinks it is “probably a little bit of both.”
NBC commentary: NFL players frequently play through pain when function is not an issue, so McVay’s response is unsurprising. Still, having the supposition confirmed is never ideal. Stafford is scheduled to participate in a workout on Saturday, which will determine his practice availability next week.
RC Note: The news on Stafford continues to be weird. He’s scheduled to practice Saturday. If he makes it to the practice and is participating and smiling, etc., then everyone is going to move on from this (for the moment). BUT if he misses that practice, then this story is going to ramp up kinda hot of a fear for all Rams things.
-- Headline: NFL Insider Jordan Schultz reports Saints OG Will Clapp suffered “a serious foot injury that is believed to be season-ending.”
RC Note: Make that TWO Saints O-Linemen down this week...not good for the Saints, but more good things for the Cardinals-DST Week 1.
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: Minnesota
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Kevin O’Connell/MIN, Dan Campbell/DET, Sean McVay/LAR, Sean Payton/DEN, Andy Reid/KC, Jim Harbaugh/LAC, John Harbaugh/BAL
Dave Canales/CAR, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Ben Johnson/CHI, Pete Carroll/LV, Sean McDermott/BUF, Matt LaFleur/GB
Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Zac Taylor/CIN, Mike McDaniel/MIA, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Liam Coen/JAX, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
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*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
8/14 THU
(7:53amET)
-- The last couple preseason game reports will be out today, and then we do it all over again starting Saturday. No Thursday preseason games this week. Friday, we’ve got two games. Saturday has TEN games. Two more on Sunday, and then the first Monday nighter (CIN-WSH) wraps up preseason Week 2.
The preseason Week 2 game that I am most interested in? Buffalo at Chicago on SNF 8pmET. The debut of Caleb Williams under Ben Johnson.
DRD ranking update happening today as well.
-- NBC Headline and commentary: NewOrleans.Football’s Nick Underhill reports Saints LG Trevor Penning suffered a turf toe injury.
Underhill didn’t put a timeline on Penning’s injury but did note that players typically need 4-6 weeks to recover from this type of issue. That would make Penning unlikely to suit up for Week 1, though it’s possible his timeline is shorter.
Not good for the Rattler or Shough debut vs. the new Arizona defense Week 1...but good news for the ARI-DST.
-- The Bills signed James Cook to a four-year, $48 million contract extension.
You knew it was coming. Next will be Terry McLaurin and/or Jauan Jennings. Word is the McLaurin deal is just about done.
Micah Parsons will be the last holdout, most likely. He will sign with Dallas around Sept. 1st, I imagine.
The Ray Davis FF-alert level is lowered back down to ‘just another handcuff’.
-- You’re seeing the Malik Nabers foot injury stuff, if you’re a Nabers owner...and you may have wondered what measures you should take to protect your asset? Is there any protection on the NYG roster?
There’s no obvious protection on the Giants. It’s all just theory/guessing.
There’s Darius Slayton...the veteran, solid ‘other’ outside WR. Are you excited about this? Maybe. Could be the ‘smart money’. I guess.
There’s Wan’Dale Robinson...but he’s a slot. I don’t think the game changes much for him with a Nabers gone scenario.
Rookie UDFA Beaux Collins? I’m a fan but he’s not likely ready to step into that role, especially if something happens in August or in Weeks 1-2 with Nabers’ foot.
Theo Johnson...the emerging, young TE? He would likely see some more targets, but not a real Nabers-gone benefactor...he’s probably better if Nabers is there getting all the coverage attention.
In most Dynasty leagues, I would suspect Wan’Dale and Theo are already on teams (maybe yours?). Slayton may be on a team already...depends on if you have a 20+ man roster, from the looks of it.
But I am wondering, in the Nabers insurance thought process -- is there some logic to grabbing a (likely) free Jalin Hyatt as a super-cheap, long shot dart throw? Whether you own Nabers or not?
We start to forget that Hyatt was a projected 1st-round pick hopeful in 2023, running a 4.40 40-time with a 40” vertical and 11’3” broad jump (all high end numbers for his legs)...and he actually flashed a little in 2023, but 2024 was an issue...he and Daboll haven’t seemed to click, so I started to worry that Hyatt was some kind of work ethic or something else issue...but he’s added like 10-20 pounds of muscle in the offseason and supposedly kept his speed within that.
Hyatt has had an issue of minor injury holding him out of practices and games, and he’s been out hurt with a minor injury for the past week or so (which has been a problem with him) but just came back to practice.
I’m a Hyatt ‘believer’ still...knowing it looks like a longer shot right now, but it’s a cheap long shot. There are two reasons why I have a candle lit for Hyatt...
1) I like his game. I think he showed me some ‘it’ in 2023.
2) Those of you who are ‘Chalk Talk’ subscribers...check out the special Hyatt collection I asked Ross to put together on Hyatt in the NYG folder/area. The summer quotes, and who they are from, really got some of my attention this offseason.
But if Nabers is alive/active, Hyatt awaits a Slayton injury to get on the field. But if Nabers suddenly leaves for the season...I would assume it’s Hyatt who would take his spot in the starting lineup, and I say Hyatt would then be the most talented/dangerous WR the Giants have available in the aftermath of a Nabers season-ending injury.
GROK injury report: Wednesday, August 13, 2025, let’s check in on Jalin Hyatt’s injury status. The New York Giants wide receiver has had some ups and downs with injuries this offseason, so here’s the latest based on what’s out there.
Hyatt is currently listed as practicing, which is a good sign! He returned to practice on Wednesday, August 13, after sitting out the Giants’ preseason win over Buffalo on Saturday, August 9, due to an undisclosed injury. Reports indicate he missed some time earlier in training camp with lower-body tightness and was held out of a few practices, including Friday, July 25, due to cramping and tightness in his lower body. His absence on Saturday wasn’t fully explained, but he was back on the field today, though working on the side rather than taking full team reps, per updates from beat reporters. This suggests he’s being eased back cautiously, and it’s unclear if the recent issue is related to the earlier lower-body tightness or something new.
The exact nature of the current injury remains undisclosed, with head coach Brian Daboll not providing specifics. Earlier in the offseason, he dealt with an apparent hamstring issue during minicamp on June 17, but that was considered minor and not expected to linger. For now, it looks promising that he’s back practicing, but the lack of team reps and ongoing side work means his status bears watching—especially with the season opener against the Commanders on September 7 approaching.
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: Miami
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Dan Campbell/DET, Sean McVay/LAR, Sean Payton/DEN, Andy Reid/KC, John Harbaugh/BAL, Jim Harbaugh/LAC
Dave Canales/CAR, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Ben Johnson/CHI, Sean McDermott/BUF, Pete Carroll/SEA, Matt LaFleur/GB
Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Zac Taylor/CIN, Mike McDaniel/MIA, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Liam Coen/JAX, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
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*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
8/13 WED
(7:05amET)
-- Draft Guide updated last night, there’s a key move in the rankings to take note of...I discussed it in some detail to open the video show last night. Please watch/listen to my news and notes opening to get all the latest reactions to the latest things in the news...and about the big change/rise player we have on the draft guide scene.
No notes from me here today, per se...because I emptied the chamber on the show open last night.
Key info on Nabers, Hampton/LAC RBs, Puka, Saints QBs....and a deep sleeper to consider and the key mover-upper player in the rankings/projections. It’s all on video...don’t miss it.
-- Some random ‘Chalk Talk Database’ things that caught my eye...
7/25/25
HC Dave Canales
__**Tetairoa McMillan**__
* We're going to find that out. He's going to get targeted a lot. He's going to be a big part of what we do offensively, particularly in the pass game. We're going to challenge him (when asked what kind of receiver he can be right out of the gate)
8/1/25
HC Dave Canales
Tetairoa McMillan
There's just a presence about him. The lights are never going to be too bright for a kid out of LA
Honestly they're different. He's got some inside, outside flexibility as a slot type of receiver and attacks the ball, comes back to it. He's got such a variety of tools that he can use because of his body control. Vertical leap. Really soft hands, really balanced hands (when asked if McMillan is similar to Mike Evans)
Yeah that's a good comp. I think T-Mac has a little more fluidity in his routes than Drake, but I would say certainly he can play above the rim (when asked if he's like Drake London)
Chuba Hubbard
He's a man's man. He represents us so well which is why we wanted to get that contract done last season, in the season, to make sure that he was with us for a long time. This is a guy who just stands for what I'm about. I just love the way he plays
-- With my lack of notes here (again, watch/listen to that video!), I am going to share a very long ESPN article that will give you a coffee cup or two of reading...and it might be the most fascinating article you’ll read this year (unless you already caught it a week+ ago).
It is lengthy, so get to a Zen place and really prepare to sit and read, I promise you’ll enjoy it.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/45869555/how-bo-nix-aced-sean-payton-qb-test
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: L.A. Rams
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Dan Campbell/DET, Sean McVay/LAR, Sean Payton/DEN, Andy Reid/KC, John Harbaugh/BAL, Jim Harbaugh/LAC
Dave Canales/CAR, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Matt LaFleur/GB, Ben Johnson/CHI, Sean McDermott/BUF, Pete Carroll/SEA
Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Zac Taylor/CIN, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Liam Coen/JAX, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
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8/12 TUE
(8:04amET)
-- Tuesday Night Video Q&A tonight 8:30pmET.
Show access will post approx. 8-8:15pmET.
-- Draft Guide update planned for Tuesday as fast as we can get it done. So many preseason games and injuries to process...
Dynasty Rookie Draft update posting in the next few hours. So many rookie performances we’re breaking down...I love it! My favorite time of year.
-- The 49ers are literally falling apart at the seams with injuries, after the gutting of several key players in free agency. How this team is favored to win the NFC West is beyond me and has been beyond me since April.
Here’s the latest injury action for SF:
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said Brandon Aiyuk (knee) is “on track to be back around Week 6.” Which means Aiyuk might have the rust blown off by Weeks 8-9-10?
The 49ers WR starting group looked like it would be Jauan, Pearsall, and Jacob Cowing to start training camp. BUT now Jennings is hurt/holding out, Cowing is hurt and out for weeks, and Pearsall is barely able to string a week of healthy practices together before he’s hurt again.
Rookie Jordan Watkins was making his move, but then there’s this from yesterday: 49ers WR Jordan Watkins is expected to miss about a month with a high ankle sprain.
The 49ers starting WR trio for Week 1 might be Pearsall-Demarcus Robinson and maybe Russell Gage, if Jennings isn’t back. Jauan has the 49ers over a serious barrel.
At RB, for SF...
Isaac Guerendo is down and will miss time into the season start. Rookie Jordan James broke a bone and will miss Week 1+. I thought, well at least they were savvy enough to pick up a very solid Ameer Abdullah to help protect CMC. But then I saw yesterday: 49ers placed RB Ameer Abdullah (ribs) on injured reserve.
The 49ers are on the brink of a massive meltdown, and back-to-back last place finishes in the NFC West, with a start-to-2026 roster that’s all old with barely any young players to get excited about...and then that could lead to a possible firing of John Lynch and possibly a soon-to-be disgruntled Kyle Shanahan wanting ‘out’. And yet the public is like ‘beware of the 49ers, look at that schedule!’
I say: Don’t look at the schedule...LOOK AT THE DAMN DEPTH CHART and STARTING LINEUP! If the worst, most beatable team on the 49ers schedule...is the 49ers...their schedule strength doesn’t matter.
-- Speaking of the NFC West, the Matt Stafford injury ‘talk’ continues to sound ‘fishier’ every other day. The NBC headline yesterday: Rams HC Sean McVay said the team will “be flexible and fluid” with Matthew Stafford as he continues to recover from his back injury.
NBC’s commentary: It’s an incredibly vague response from McVay, who indicated over the weekend that Stafford would return to the field after going through a successful workout on Saturday. Instead, Stafford was spotted in street clothes on Monday and was also seen walking into an Ammortal chamber that specializes as a “wellness device that aims to optimize human performance and promote holistic health through a combination of non-invasive technologies.” So, there’s that. McVay said surgery has not been talked about as an option for Stafford but said his quarterback “didn’t feel good enough” to be on the field on Monday.
RC Note: Is this really just going to clear up on its own? Is this not going to be a ‘hold your breath’ issue anytime Stafford gets sacked?
Do I really want to redraft-invest in Puka with a dark cloud hanging around? I don’t want my high-pick options to have ‘questions’ swirling around them...I want them CLEAN and HOLY. Just when I get worried, today they’ll be talking about how Stafford is fine and practiced in full...then the next day, they’ll say they discovered he has no spine left. Back and forth about a serious issue for any NFL player, especially a QB.
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: L.A. Chargers
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Dan Campbell/DET, Sean Payton/DEN, Andy Reid/KC, John Harbaugh/BAL, Jim Harbaugh/LAC
Dave Canales/CAR, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Matt LaFleur/GB, Ben Johnson/CHI, Sean McDermott/BUF, Pete Carroll/SEA
Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Zac Taylor/CIN, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Liam Coen/JAX, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
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8/11 MON
(7:50amET)
-- We’re going through the game reports as fast as we can. Reports will publish all week up to the kickoff of Week 2 of the preseason, where we do it all again. Football is back!
We’ll update the Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings every day or two this week with the new wave of Week 1 preseason tape watching.
I’m releasing a video this morning covering what I saw in the Vikings-Texans game with bonus discussion of some RBs that I hadn’t watched the game on but watched their touches for a preview: Corum, Gordon, Mafah, Tuten.
-- One Dynasty Rookie Draft note, on ADPs, that I noticed with all kinds of drafts this weekend...
The TreVeyon Henderson debut lit a fire...he’s going as high as #2 off the board in drafts. He’s challenging Omarion Hampton for the #2 ADP spot, hard. TreVeyon may pass Hampton this week. TH has the momentum right now because the never fail football axiom we preach is always true: Whatever people just saw (in a game) is the current and future truth without question. Henderson has a great debut…he’s now a Hall of Famer until further notice.
And Tetairoa McMillan had been popping up as high as the #2 taken rookie in DRDs the past few weeks...but he’s falling more to the #3-4-5 range in the wake of the Henderson excitement.
-- RB injuries galore...
Kenneth Walker is staying out of practice with some kind of injury. Zach Charbonnet’s ADP has slowly risen a touch over the weekend in redrafts I was observing. I don’t think there’s a serious issue with Walker...just being safe with THEIR guy. But the public is showing their concern by (rightfully) drafting Walker then chasing Charbs as the handcuff.
Another likely ‘THEIR guy’ situation where ‘the guy’ is being kept safe for extra/total healing is Joe Mixon in Houston. BUT...it’s not out of the question that this Mixon injury thing is more ‘real’. He’s been out for weeks/months now. Mixon was a huge dropper (ADP) in redrafts that I observed over the weekend.
Rachaad White injured his groin...this may be a real issue, like weeks/months. If I were him, I wouldn’t push it...he’s headed to free agency after this season. Don’t make it worse on yourself in the marketplace. In his place, Sean Tucker will rise...and already has Todd Bowles saying they need to get him more touches. You want in on Tucker if Rachaad is out and then Bucky goes down.
Tyjae Spears is out for ‘weeks’ with a high ankle sprain. It probably takes him to right around the season opener range...maybe misses or barely plays Week 1.
We’ve barely begun the season and RBs are going down all over...not season-long ACL, etc., horrible ones...but various ‘out weeks’ type things going on right now with some extended ‘not practicing’ guys with mysterious injuries.
2025 is shaping up to be, among other things, ‘the importance of handcuffs’.
-- Matt Stafford is set to practice today. Held out for a bit to let him heal/keep him out of harm’s way. Stafford usually finds a way to play through it all.
Puka’s extreme WR1/top 10 valuation depends on Stafford. Any Rams season long bets heavily depend on Stafford.
-- Quick IDP note from the Patriots camp: Kyle Dugger is slowly losing his starting SAF job to rookie Craig Woodson.
Dugger has been struggling coming off injury, and Woodson is playing more with the 1s.
-- Our own Andrew DFS watched the Saints game to see/scout the Rattler v. Shough QB battle first glimpse. He sent me his notes, and I asked if I could publish for folks to see/consider/be informed of until I can get to this game tape.
Here’s A.D’s first reaction/tracking of the Shough NFL debut...
Tyler Shough Preseason Game 1 (at LAC)
Looked good when NO let him push the ball down the field. The Saints had a fairly conservative game plan for him. Final stats: 15/22 165 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. Played 6 drives, entered the game during the final 2 minutes of the first half.
The overarching theme appears to be that Shough takes what the defense gives him. I’d like to see what he looks like in a more aggressive game plan. Not a bad debut; looked better than Rattler ever did in any pro game.
Drive 1 NO 35, 43 yards, FGM
2-minute drill
In command of the huddle
Carved up the LAC zone.
Game management needs more work.
Benefitted off two LAC penalties
5/8 42 yards
Drive 2 NO 28, -2 yards, 3&O
Got sacked, looked a little shaky in the pocket. Started hot in a 2-minute drill, then half time, hard to stop and go.
1/1 1 yards
Drive 3 NO 38, 4 yards, pick 6
1/2 2 yards INT
Bad throw to the outside led to a pick 6. The ball looked like it lacked velocity, poor decision either way.
Drive 4 NO 18, 82 yards, TD
Settled down in the pocket.
Big throw to Tipton, nice bounce back.
3/3 80 yards TD
Drive 5 NO 27, 11 yards, PUNT
Takes what the defense gives him. Looks calm and cool.
Had an inaccurate throw when throwing on the run with pressure in his face.
Held ball too long, took a drive killing sack.
2/3 20 yards
Drive 6 NO 4, 22 yards, PUNT
Beautiful throw on run.
Drive started deep in Saints territory (risky).
Slid when ran, good to avoid hit.
3/4 22 yards, 3 yards rushing
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: Las Vegas
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Dan Campbell/DET, Sean Payton/DEN, Andy Reid/KC, John Harbaugh/BAL
Dave Canales/CAR, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Matt LaFleur/GB, Ben Johnson/CHI, Sean McDermott/BUF, Pete Carroll/SEA
Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Zac Taylor/CIN, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Liam Coen/JAX, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
