Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from AFC Divisional Playoff...
#6 Bengals (12-6) at #1 Texans (12-5)
The Texans win 58% of the simulations.
The Texans defense is superior to what the Bengals have, in a battle of trying to stop the elite QB matchup. Joe Mixon rushes for a TD in the final minutes for a serendipitous moment and the Texans advance to the AFC Conference Finals.
#5 Colts (13-5) at #2 Ravens (13-5)
The Ravens win 53% of the simulations.
The battle of the mobile QBs...Richardson is the better of the two, but the Ravens have so much playoff experience that they just play a cleaner game at their home hiding behind the Derrick Henry run game.
It’s Baltimore at Houston for a trip to the Super Bowl, a rematch of last year’s playoffs 2nd-round battle (and Ravens blowout win).
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