The second of many 2024 Mock NFL Drafts from the award-winning mock draft FFM team. Follow along the NFL Draft season with unique scouting reports, Dynasty Rookie Draft projections, Prop betting on the draft and more this entire offseason at Fantasy Football Metrics.com...our 15th season covering the NFL Draft.
Our Mock Drafts are compiled by our experts from their sources, research (current and historical), and scouting info. It's not for fun and games...we mock for national contest award wins and for prop betting the draft.
Also, RC and AndrewDFS did a live reveal show of this mock for YouTube. See that here: https://ffmetrics.com/4031-ffm-video-podcast-mock-draft-2-0-pick-by-pick-reactions
1) Chicago Bears - QB Caleb Williams, USC
It’s beyond clear at this point that Williams is going to be the #1 overall pick. Chicago has let it be known it would take a larger offer than what they received from Carolina for the rights to this pick, and nobody is going to hand that over after the Bryce Young debacle. What has not been determined yet is whether they will keep or trade Justin Fields. It is possible they choose to keep him and let the two compete, but I imagine he’ll get traded eventually, even if it’s not until August or September and a starter somewhere gets injured.
2) Washington Commanders - QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
It seems as if my faith in Josh Harris might have been misplaced. I thought this pick would for sure be traded for more resources. Afterall, why would you ship out Chase Young and Montez Sweat if you’re planning on drafting a QB and trying to compete immediately? It looked like The Process all over again for Harris. And then they hired Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury, and I cannot think of a worse overall duo to be leading my team. I don’t know what happened or how the people in charge are making decisions, but this was a terrible start, and I don’t believe for a second that Kingsbury would have taken this job if he wasn’t promised a shiny new QB to work with. There’s still a chance Washington salvages the situation and trades this pick, but it’s becoming less likely by the day.
In lieu of trading down, I think Kingsbury will lean towards Daniels over Maye, but I don’t feel totally comfortable with that assessment. He could absolutely lean towards the rhythm passing and big arm of Maye and it wouldn’t shock me. However, the one thing Kliff mentioned in his introductory press conference was being able to move around and buy time when things go off schedule. That sounds very similar to Kyler and what is Daniels if not a much taller version? Jayden also shares a passing resemblance to Trey Lance who Adam Peters supposedly loved. At least if they are going to stick and pick they end up with the best available QB.
3) New England Patriots - WR Marvin Harrison, Ohio St
Passing on a QB to take a WR? I’m not completely convinced of this one either because, on paper, Maye is a very good fit for what Alex Van Pelt wants to do offensively. But right now I’m leaning towards either a trade down or taking Harrison if they stay at 3. New England is miles away from a respectable offense. They have a flimsy line, no receivers to speak of outside Demario Douglas in the slot, and obviously no quarterback. Getting even one or two of those isn’t going to suddenly fix their issues. They need to acquire multiple pieces and it’s unlikely they can do that in one off-season.
The other thing that pushes me in the direction of Harrison is who is running the show now in New England. The appointment of Eliot Wolf should not be overlooked. Eliot is the son of Ron Wolf, longtime Packers personnel man and living legend. Eliot learned everything from his dad, and Ron is a staunch supporter of hard line taking the “Best Available Player.” Everyone says that, but few actually stick to the approach like Ron Wolf. And for most boards that means Marvin Harrison. This could be very much like the Cincinnati situation from 2011 where they took AJ Green with the 4th pick and then snagged Andy Dalton to go with him in the second round.
4) Denver Broncos (trade) - QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
Cardinals fans are going to be sick if this happens. For months they have been promised Marvin Harrison, but he goes one pick before them in a stunner. In response the team repeats their strategy from last year and trades out for more picks.
Any number of teams could be looking to trade up if Maye is still on the board, but none of them will be as desperate as Sean Payton. The next most likely is Minnesota, particularly if Cousins signs elsewhere. Atlanta has shown no propensity to move and Vegas wants to keep their draft capital. Payton though is a rabid dog for a QB at this point, and history has shown he won’t be shy about mortgaging the future to get what he wants right now. I’m not sure he would do the same if Daniels was available however. Maye seems particularly suited, on paper, to Payton’s style, a rhythm passer that can make every throw and run his offense as intended.
5) Los Angeles Chargers - TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
Good luck guessing what Jim Harbaugh wants to do. The man has odd taste in football players and no discernible pattern that I’ve been able to pick up. This is the guy that famously said Colin Kaepernick was the best player overall in the 2011 draft.
Now I don’t think almost anyone else would take Bowers this highly. Tight ends get lumped into the same category as safeties and RBs these days…non-critical positions. They tend to fall a bit in the draft early on because most teams prefer to take linemen, edge rushers, receivers, and obviously QBs. However, it is clear Harbaugh doesn’t give a damn about positional value. He wants good players that are tough and versatile and love football. Bowers is all of those things but he also critically fills several needs for the Chargers at the same time. Justin Herbert clearly needs more people to throw to outside of Keenan Allen and Harbaugh wants to run the ball more. He can get both with one player. He has to bring in multiple TE’s this year. That’s a fact. They don’t even have enough bodies signed at the moment. And the TE class falls off a cliff after Bowers. Getting Bowers now solves every issue at once.
6) New York Giants - OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame
You can bet the Giants are going to look long and hard at QBs, but it doesn’t seem likely that one of the Big 3 will get to them. I think it’s unlikely the trade up either because Daniel Jones is already locked in as the starter for 2024. He should be healed and ready to go. Taking a QB would just be to prepare for his dismissal after next season. They can comfortably go into the year with Jones and figure out the situation next off-season.
So what do they do instead? Well, they could go with a receiver here as many people are speculating, but they seem to be fine with rotating a bunch of lesser guys. They can always pick up a solid player in the second round anyways. Instead they can take yet another stab at their Achilles heel…offensive line. New York has been flailing away trying to correct this issue for years now to no avail. Here they take the best tackle available and move him to the right side which allows Evan Neal to slide inside to guard where he’s better suited. It solves two positions at once. Personally I like Alt on the left, but the Giants already have Andrew Thomas and some people think Alt is a little stiff and belongs on the right side anyways.
7) Tennessee Titans - WR Malik Nabors, LSU
Not long ago I was convinced 100% that Tennessee would take the best available offensive tackle here. Why wouldn’t they? It was a complete disaster last year. Seems like a slam dunk.
And then the team fired Mike Vrabel. Now even though it came as a shock to most of the country, I’ve been keeping tabs on the team and knew it was a possibility, but I didn’t know how deep it went. So I started digging to find out what exactly is going on in Tennessee, and let me tell you I am excited about what they are working towards. There has been a very quiet transformation going on in that front office, but the people in charge are trying to bring the Titans to the forefront of analytics and modern football. They seem committed to bringing this team into the 21st century, and they plan on building around Will Levis.
Now they do need to protect Levis, and I’m sure they’ll make investments in that direction. A tackle in round 2 is highly likely. But I’m convinced they want one of the top receivers this high up in the draft to pair with Levis the way Joe Burrow got Ja’Marr Chase. New head coach Brian Callahan was with Cincinnati for that pairing and saw how well it worked. If Nabors is gone then Odunze is the pick, but I think they will prefer the raw speed of Nabors to pair with Levis’s big arm.
8) Atlanta Falcons - WR Rome Odunze, Washington
I keep seeing mock drafts try to force a pass rusher to Atlanta. How many years have we been doing this same thing and watching Atlanta skip the position without blinking? Terry Fontenot is not going to take an edge rusher unless he’s the highest graded player on his board. He’s one of the few that sticks to that philosophy. I also don’t see him making any radical trades up for a QB. He’s going to stay patient and let the draft come to him…possibly to his own detriment. If the board falls this way then it’s very likely Odunze will be the highest rated player left, which works out well enough because Atlanta needs a partner across from Drake London.
I also expect Atlanta will be in play for a veteran QB this off-season because they think the team is ready to win the NFC South right now. Imagine Russell Wilson throwing to London, Odunze, and Pitts with Bijan Robinson in the backfield. That’s a lot of weapons for fans to get excited about.
9) Chicago Bears - EDGE Jared Verse, Florida St
I could see the Bears going a number of directions with this pick. They could take another tackle to help protect their new QB. They could take a WR, if one is still available, for their new QB to throw to. Or they could continue to build their pass rush by giving Montez Sweat a bookend. I lean towards this latter option in this scenario.
So which of the three top pass rushers is likely to go first? My pick would be Latu by a mile, but the NFL thinks in different terms. They have these strange notions about what a player is supposed to look like physically, and if he isn’t flexible enough or have long enough arms or doesn’t have an explosive first step, they will dock him. They don’t look at what a player is. They are looking for an ideal, what a player could be. It’s the exact issue Michael Lewis talked about in Moneyball, scouting players based on some weird fantasy about what their potential is based on their body. Bizarre. But because that’s how most of these guys think, I expect Verse will be the top pass rusher off the board because he has the size they crave and the chiseled frame and he plays with unrelenting energy. Forget the fact that half his production came against UMass. No, they’ll take Verse because he’s closer to their prototype fantasy than Dallas Turner who’s on the small side and Laiatu Latu who “isn’t explosive.”
10) New York Jets - OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon St
Last year everyone and their mother knew the Jets desperately wanted an offensive tackle in the 1st round to help protect Aaron Rodgers. The problem with it being so obvious is it makes you vulnerable to getting exploited and that’s precisely what the Steelers did, trading up in front of the Jets for Broderick Jones. This year has another loaded class of offensive tackles and the Jets sit a little higher at 10th overall. There’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to take a good one.
Fuaga is already one of my favorite players to watch on tape. He’s big, explosive, and mean, routinely blowing defenders completely off the line. The thing that really pops on tape is how smoothly he moves in space for such a large man. Not long ago Fuaga was being mocked in the 20’s, but the media has caught up to the fact that he is much better than that. Now he routinely goes between 10 and 20 give or take. That seems about right.
11) Minnesota Vikings - EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama
Many Minnesota fans are going to be clamoring for a new QB, but I’m betting the team simply re-signs Kirk Cousins. It’s the easiest option to keep a competitive team and they absolutely can win with Kirk provided they give him a respectable defense (which he’s rarely had throughout his career). Don’t forget he was playing like a top 5 QB in 2023 before his injury. Fans can complain about him and how boring he is, but management doesn’t care. They just want to win. What’s the alternative if you don’t bring him back? You can’t guarantee a decent rookie unless you trade up and that takes a lot of resources and has proven time and time again to be a very poor strategy.
More likely they bring back Cousins and keep working to overhaul the defense. With so many pass rushers set to hit free agency, it stands to reason they can take a replacement at 11. Turner isn’t my favorite edge rusher ever, but he’s drawing comparisons to Brian Burns and that seems quite apt. You could do worse than taking Brian Burns 11th overall.
12) Arizona Cardinals (trade) - OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn St
If Arizona does indeed miss out on Harrison and trades down, I could see a repeat of last year happening if they decided to trade back up going after Rome Odunze. But assuming they do trade and then stay put, what’s the most likely direction they’ll take? Honestly, they could go any number of directions. They need defensive line, edge rushers, corners, and offensive line. And since they are clearly committed to Kyler Murry I’m going to give them another offensive tackle to pair with Paris Johnson.
I haven’t studied Fashanu in depth yet, but he seems fine enough. He needs to get stronger and a little more physical, but he’s clearly athletic enough and seems like a polished pass blocker. That’s far more important than being a masher in the run game, but try telling that to NFL coaches. He has been slightly overrated by the media, at least as far as scouts are concerned. He’s more likely to go between 10 and 20 than top 10 I think.
13) Las Vegas Raiders - CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
Fans want a QB and I imagine they’ll get one at some point. It just might not be the 1st round. McCarthy is an option, but I think Vegas could choose to wait. They have too many other holes to deal with and can roll with Aidan O’Connell plus someone later.
Corner has to be at the top of their list. Nate Hobbs needs help. If they do go corner here I could see the pick being Terrion Arnold, but supposedly the front office is focused on speed and getting faster as a team, so I could see them preferring Mitchell, who is expected to run a 4.3 or 4.4, over Arnold who has some minor concerns about his long speed.
14) New Orleans Saints - OT JC Latham, Alabama
The Saints have sold out the last couple of years thinking they were just a player or two away from a Superbowl and it’s gotten them absolutely nowhere. They again have cap issues, very few draft picks from moving up in previous years, and to top it all off they now have the oldest team in the league and several holes opening up all at once. This situation is looking uglier by the day.
By far the Saints biggest needs are on the offensive and defensive lines. They are going to have to bring in multiple players on both sides. Offensive line arguably has more questions because Trevor Penning has struggled to develop and Ryan Ramczyk has injury issues that might force him to retire. In addition, the Saints love their prototypes and Latham absolutely looks the part at 6’6” 350+lbs with long arms. Whether his play matches his size is a whole other question.
15) Indianapolis Colts - CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
Indy doesn’t have any super obvious holes but corner is probably near the top of the list. Chris Ballard loves one thing above all others and that is athleticism and physical traits. DeJean has both in spades in addition to insane production. He’s going to test off the charts at 6’1”/205+ and is an excellent fit for Indy’s zone heavy scheme.
He should be considered one of the top 2-3 corners, and possibly the best overall, but it’s possible he’ll drop a bit because many scouts don’t think he’s “twitchy” enough as an outside corner. Personally I think he’s the closest thing we’ve seen to Jalen Ramsey (who funnily enough also had scouts saying he wasn’t twitchy enough…seriously, go read back and read the draft reports). It was a stupid criticism then, and it’s a stupid criticism now. In fact, the only reason Ramsey went as high as he did was because Gus Bradley was the coach and Ramsey perfectly fit his cover 3 defense from Seattle. Well guess who just so happens to be the defensive coordinator for the Colts? Gus Bradley.
16) Seattle Seahawks - QB JJ McCarthy, Michigan
Mark my words when I say JJ McCarthy is the biggest wildcard in the draft, and where he falls is going to determine a lot of other picks. Trying to place him is going to be the biggest challenge for mock drafters this year. There are reports flying all over that several teams have him as high as their #2 overall QB. RC thinks that is only because Harbaugh said he could be the top guy overall, but think about it, Harbaugh is a well-respected coach and thinks exactly like the rest of them. Whatever he sees in McCarthy, it shouldn’t be any surprise that others in the business see him the same way.
So does McCarthy go top 5? Top 10? Maybe. I don’t know yet. This is my best guess at the moment. Assuming everything goes as I’ve predicted here, Seattle feels like the best match for McCarthy. We know John Schneider values a big arm and old-school QB traits (the same way Harbaugh does), and Mike McDonald is familiar with McCarthy from his year as the defensive coordinator at Michigan. It just seems like a natural fit, and Seattle is clearly ready to move off of Geno Smith. He was always just a placeholder. If Indy didn’t take Anthony Richardson last year, there is not doubt Seattle would have scooped him up. I could even see the Seahawks making a small move up to secure him.
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17) Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Brian Thomas, LSU
Jacksonville could go any number of directions, but WR has to be near the top of their list. Calvin Ridley was a disappointment overall and could be leaving and the rest of the corps are just mid-level guys. The argument will be that Lawrence needs a “real” weapon and then he’ll finally be good, no for real this time. Thomas also happens to fit here because Jacksonville currently doesn’t have a larger receiver, and we know Baalke is another GM in love with “traits.” Thomas has traits galore.
18) Cincinnati Bengals - DT Byron Murphy, Texas
The Bengals are likely to lose DJ Reader this off-season and the team feels like they need more pass rush help up the middle. Offensive tackle is certainly on the table as well, but I think they’ll jump at the chance to draft Murphy. Why Murphy and not Jer’Zhan Newton? Traits, traits, traits. I’m going to harp on it a lot this off-season. It’s how these coaches and personnel people think. They don’t care that Newton is more productive and a better player than Murphy. He’s small and undersized and supposedly struggles to hold up in run defense. Murphy, even though he’s about the same height as Newton, is more thickly built and has longer arms and a more sleek frame. He’s also seen as the more explosive overall athlete brimming with untapped potential. It’s nonsense of course, but it’s what they believe. I won’t be surprised if Murphy goes a little higher than this, but if he lasts to 18 Cincinnati will be running the card up with his name on it.
19) Los Angeles Rams - CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
Yet another team that could draft just about any position. I wouldn’t even be shocked if they made a move for McCarthy as the successor to Stafford. Nothing is off the table here. But they could definitely use another corner and Arnold is universally graded as a very solid starting corner. It took some time for the media to catch up that he’s much, much better than teammate Kool-Aid McKinstry, but Arnold is now a near certain lock for the top 20. The only thing holding him back from going a bit higher is his perceived lack of elite deep speed.
20) Pittsburgh Steelers - OC Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
Pittsburgh announced loud and clear last year that they want to be a power-run team again, and the hiring of Arthur Smith to run the offense just makes that even more clear. They are looking long and hard for more big, strong, powerful blockers this year, and Powers-Johnson is the center of their dreams, a massive behemoth of a player at 320+lbs but one that moves well too. You don’t often see centers this big. He is the center the Steelers would build in a lab if they could. I will be very surprised if they pass on him for anyone else.
21) Miami Dolphins - OG Graham Barton, Duke
The Dolphins have huge cap issues to deal with, and there’s no predicting how the roster will look once they are done. They could take just about any position and it wouldn’t surprise me. However, at the moment they have basically no interior offensive linemen under contract for 2024. They need bodies. They just missed out on JPJ, so I’ll give them the next best available. Barton might be able to stick at tackle in the league, but due to his shorter arms and frame it’s likely he’ll be moved inside.
22) Philadelphia Eagles - EDGE Laiatu Latu, UCLA
I’m sure by now RC is having a conniption that I have Latu lasting this long, and I agree that’s it’s stupid. It’s also what I think is likely to happen. To us, Latu is far and away the best pass rusher. He’s got everything you could want, size, athleticism, moves, production…but the NFL doesn’t see it that way. They see a solid pass rusher that doesn’t have elite size or elite speed or elite explosiveness, and to top it all off he had major medical concerns a few years ago that nearly ended his playing career. Add it all up and I think Latu is going to last far too long come draft day and the Eagles get a steal at 22. They are desperate for more edge rushers as Haason Reddick wants a big new contract and they have multiple other guys that aren’t under contract after 2024. Howie loves to load up one year ahead of time. Circle edge rushers for this pick.
23) Houston Texans - LB Cedric Gray, North Carolina
For most mainstream mock drafters this will be my most controversial and maligned pick yet. None of the linebackers are worth a first round pick they will say, and certainly not Gray, he’s a 3rd round pick! And yet if you study draft history, you will see that linebackers are still very highly valued by the league, and at least one is nearly always drafted somewhere in the first round. For recent examples of surprise linebackers in the first round just look at Jamin Davis, Quay Walker, and Jack Campbell.
Why Gray and not Edgerrin Cooper, the favorite linebacker of most mock drafters? Well for one, Cooper isn’t very productive, especially compared to Gray, and he supposedly has some bad makeup and character concerns, reportedly telling evaluators at the Senior Bowl to “go check his tape” when asked why he wasn’t participating in the game. If Gray tests well enough at the combine, I think he could sneak into the first round and be the top linebacker off the board. Houston needs someone to pair with Christian Harris.
24) Dallas Cowboys - DT Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois
Dallas has some very clear patterns when it comes to the draft. They prioritize the defensive line, corners, and linebackers very highly, followed by offensive line and receiver. They also like very athletic players and if possible they try to pick a player that is the #1 overall rated player for them at that particular position. Tyler Smith was their top rated guard two years ago and Mazi Smith was their top rated defensive tackle last year. This year they again need more defensive line help, and I think there’s a very good chance Newton is their top rated defensive tackle. One thing to note about Newton, many evaluators think he should be paired with a massive nose tackle to protect him the way that Tampa protected Calijah Kancey with Vita Vea. The theory is you offset their deficiencies in the run game with a huge body next to them. Dallas just so happens to have that big body available from last year, Mazi Smith.
25) Green Bay Packers - S Kamren Kinchens, Miami
Some people are going to slam this pick for a few reasons. 1) They think safeties are overrated as a position. 2) They see some inconsistent moments from Kinchens on tape, some mental lapses and lackadaisical movement, and assume he’s lazy or not that good. And 3) Assume the Packers have other greater needs than another safety.
My counter to those arguments: 1) The NFL has repeatedly shown that they still value safeties higher than the media and fans. It’s not uncommon for a pair of safeties to come off the board much higher (around 17th to 20th overall) than expected. 2) Yes, Kinchens has some moments that are worth questioning but so did Earl Thomas in college. At the end of the day he’s still a highly athletic, highly instinctual, and highly productive player and he’s likely to be drafted much higher than many anticipate. And 3) Green Bay in particular has shown over the years that they value safeties higher than most other teams and they definitely need an upgrade/replacement for Darnell Savage. There is a long list of safeties they have drafted in the first and second rounds. Kinchens is exactly the type of athletic, productive player they love to draft. He’s a steal at 25th overall.
I could also see an offensive tackle here as many are predicting, but I don’t see a great fit for what they prioritize at the position at this juncture, and if you look at their history you’ll see that they typically target offensive line between rounds two and four. Rarely do they take a guy in the first. Some facts: since Brian Gutekunst took over as director of college scouting in 2012, the Packers have drafted an offensive player in the first round exactly once…Jordan Love. The last offensive lineman they drafted in the first round was Derek Sherrod…the year before Gutekunst took over.
26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Demeioun “Chop” Robinson, Penn St
Mocking a receiver here is popular and it could happen if Mike Evans signs somewhere else, but for now I see Tampa trying to fill their most immediate big need, the position all NFL teams dream of more than any other…pass rusher. Shaq Barrett is on his last legs. Joe Tryon hasn’t panned out as hoped. Yaya Diaby is young and hopeful, but teams feel they can never have enough edge rushers. I could see Robinson going much higher than this because he is the kind of flexible, bendy, explosive athlete the NFL loves, but two things are holding him back. One, he’s not very productive and has to refine his game, and two, he’s smaller than ideal and a liability in the run game. That makes me think he’s destined for the back 10 or 12 picks in the first round instead. Think of him in the same category as Nolan Smith, Marcus Smith, and Dee Ford.
27) Arizona Cardinals - DL Darius Robinson, Missouri
I’ve been a Darius Robinson fan for a while, and his performance at the Senior Bowl dominating everyone in sight finally caught everyone up to the party. Robinson has that prototypical size and power teams love in addition to a perfectly sculpted body, muscular frame, and long arms. He’s also versatile and can play 4-3 edge rusher, 3-4 end controlling the tackle, or even slide inside on passing downs as a 4-3 tackle to rush the guards. Doesn’t that fit the description of players I said would be drafted much higher? For the most part yes, but his one flaw in the eyes of most evaluators is that he doesn’t have the explosive speed they look for. To them he compares closely to Cam Jordan. Now any rational person would say that’s a damn good comparison and Cam Jordan was clearly under-drafted…but I promise you the NFL will overlook the obvious and still let Robinson stay on the board far too long because he doesn’t have this, clearly unnecessary, quality they desire.
And as I talked about earlier, the Cardinals need a multitude of positions. They could draft anything and it wouldn’t surprise me. But Monti Ossenfort comes from the Belichick tree and loves the offensive and defensive lines. He also loves big, powerful, versatile linemen like Robinson. Think of Richard Seymour or Trey Flowers with the Patriots, jumbo edge rushers that can move around and play in multiple fronts. That’s the kind of defense that Jonathan Gannon is trying to build and Robinson fits it perfectly.
28) Buffalo Bills - WR Xavier Worthy, Texas
Many people are mocking a receiver to Buffalo and I’m not going to disagree. The Stefon Diggs drama continues to rage and Gabe Davis is a free agent. The Bills need more juice on offense if they want Josh Allen to outduel Mahomes which is clearly their best path to a Superbowl because you can’t plan on stopping him. Worthy has fallen out of favor with some mock drafters, but I think it’s a mistake. He is an elite track and field athlete in addition to being a very good and very underrated football player. The NFL is always looking for speed demons and Worthy has that in spades.
29) Detroit Lions - DT Kris Jenkins, Michigan
The Lions have a terrible secondary which caused their downfall in the NFC championship game when they couldn’t stop Brock Purdy and 49ers in the second half. So what’s the natural thing to do to shore up your pass defense? Draft a run blocking defensive tackle of course.
Mock drafters keep making the mistake of assuming NFL teams are going to do logical things like fix their biggest problem or address the passing on either side of the ball. It is beyond obvious that passing effectively and stopping the pass is the key to modern football, but many of these teams are still stuck in 1970, and chief among them is the Lions. Everyone and their grandmother was on the Lions train before the 2023 draft thinking they were this analytically minded, forward-thinking team that would draft a corner in the first round. And then they took a running back and inside linebacker with their top two picks. I was alone in mocking them a RB at the top of the draft (even though I got the wrong RB). And yet even though they have announced over and over that they are an old school team that wants to run the ball and stop the run, it won’t stop most mock drafters from giving them a corner here.
I guarantee the way that Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell view things is 180 degrees the other way. They will assume if they can get the league’s best run defense that it will force teams to pass into them on 3rd and long when they know it’s coming. They think that is how you get a good pass defense. And because of all of this I’m mocking them the perfect player for their tastes. Jenkins has NFL bloodlines (that matters to these people), he’s a weight room junkie, loves football, and is the top rated run blocking DT in this class. His profile is screaming for the Lions.
30) Baltimore Ravens - CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson
Many people have Wiggins going much higher than this, and while I tend to agree I’ve also heard that he has some possible work ethic concerns and injury concerns, in addition to needing to work on his run defense (I’m telling you they love run defense). I think all of this could cause him to slip a little, and Baltimore loves to scoop up talented, falling players. It just so happens they could use another corner as well.
31) San Francisco 49ers - OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
Who knows what the Niners will choose to do here. Trading back wouldn’t be a surprise. But if they stay and pick their biggest need is clearly a new right tackle and ideally a guy that could feasibly replace Trent Williams on the left someday.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Mims goes much, much higher than this. If he shows out at the combine his stock could catch fire in a hurry. He’s a mountain of a man but carries it very well. He has the ideal frame that NFL people love, but he’s 6’7”/330 lbs+ with long arms and a sculpted frame. So why do I have him at 31 and not 10? Well, he hasn’t played much football for one. He was a very highly rated guy coming out of high school, but he was buried behind some talented guys at Georgia for a while and every time he got some game time he kept getting injured. The lack of playing time and injury concerns could push him down the board a bit, and allow a team like SF to scoop up a raw talent with the hopes of molding him.
32) Kansas City Chiefs - OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
Much like with Atlanta and their edge rushers, mock drafters have an obsession with trying to force a receiver to the Chiefs despite their repeated lack of interest in drafting the position highly. Will the Chiefs look to add to their receiver room this year? Assuredly. But that doesn’t mean it has to be in the first round of the draft. I think they have confidence that Rashee Rice will continue to develop into their #1. I’d look for either a veteran addition in free agency or perhaps a mid-round pick instead.
I expect the Chiefs to focus on the lines. Depending on what happens in free agency they might need a lot of new bodies on the defensive line. But I think they’ll find a way to bring Chris Jones back for an attempt at the three-peat. It’s probably the franchise tag for him if I had to take a guess, and even though he wants a long-term deal I think he’ll accept the tag only because he wants to be part of trying for a third straight championship. So in lieu of a pick on the defensive side, I’m going with an offensive tackle. Protecting Mahomes will always be priority number one here, and KC nearly blew the Super Bowl because the Niners were getting to him far too often early on. Guyton is a raw prospect that needs some work. He only started playing football a few years ago, but he has the size and athleticism on paper to be a high end tackle if he can put it all together. I think many in the NFL will prefer that profile to someone more limited like say, Troy Fautanu. Jordan Morgan is another option that could work.
